Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump dominating Biden in swing states as young and black voters jump ship, Charlamagne refuses to endorse Biden 2024, Michael Cohen testifies against Trump, GameStop stocks surge as Roaring Kitty returns.
To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: https://breakingpoints.supercast.com/
Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
ways we can up our game for this critical election.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Coverage that is possible.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
If you like what we're all about, it just means
the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,
let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
We have an amazing show for everybody today.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We have personal indeed, we do lots of interesting news
breaking this morning. We are going to be taking a
look at this blockbuster New York Times.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Poll that woof yikes bad for Joe.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Biden, really bad for Joe Biden. I mean, like down
double digits in Nevada bad for Joe Biden. So we'll
dig into that because there are a lot of other
interesting numbers besides those top lines. We also, in light
of those that news, we're going to show you Biden's
favorite news anchor basically pushing the alarm button and saying, hey,
you are on a path to defeat right now. So
(00:59):
there is a lot of freak out totally justified on
the Democratic side of the aisle right now. We also
had Trump back in the courtroom yesterday and what was
probably the most essential testimony in this hush money case
of Michael Cohen. Will tell you what he said and
what it could mean. Also, GameStop is back, Raring, Kitty
is back, He's back.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
What was the percentage in place yes as of this morning,
game stop up about seventy five percent AMC stock up
one all thanks to mister Keith Gill himself.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Very interesting times we're living in, Yes. Indeed, at the
same time, we've got some major developments with regard to
Ukraine that we did not want to lose sight of,
both on the Russian side and on the Ukrainian side,
So we'll break those down for you.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
A lot going on in.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Israel, of course, We're going to bring you a CNN
report about detainees being tortured by the Israelis, an Israeli
whistleblowerre actually bringing them these allegations.
Speaker 4 (01:49):
Quite stunning. There.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We also have IDF generals revolting against BB their reasons
really interesting. What this says about the divide in Israeli society.
And we have Senator Lindsay Graham suggesting, hey, how about
we just knew Gaza? How about that, joining a growing
list of politicians who are suggesting just out and out
atrost genicidal atrocities against Palestinians. We also are very excited
(02:13):
to talk to Arjun Singh. He's a producer for lever
News's new Revamp podcast, which I have to tell you
guys is excellent. I've been seeing as Praises Sager can vouch,
they have really up their game, and he's done some
fantastic reporting looking inside the Biden administration's unconditional support for Israel.
And this comes at a time when we have yet
another significant official in the State Department resigning over his
(02:37):
moral objections to the policy viz. A vi Israel and
the unconditional support, the flouting of American laws in order
to support Israel. And it's a Jewish man who resigned too.
So it's quite an interesting role position that he is
taking and worth taking a look at that as well.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
He's the active duty US Army major. I mean, it's
not something you just throw away, right, you know. I mean,
this is an entire career. Somebody who's already reached that
rank is spend a long time in the military, probably
on a career track. That's not something that you just
do lightly. We had similar resignations that happened in the past.
It used to get a lot of attention here. I
seem to recall whenever it was under Trump.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Under Biden.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
You may be able to hear about it on a
show like Hours, Yeah about it maybe if you're on Twitter,
if you're on the right Twitter. But anyways, as Crystal said,
we've got a great show for everybody today. Thank you
to everybody who's been signing up for premium Breakingpoints dot
Com And as we continue to tease, we do have
a major, major announcement that is coming. That's all I
can say at this point, but it's going to be
a massive upgrade in our premium service. We're always thinking
(03:33):
about everybody, especially on the heels. We've only got two
weeks to go a three year anniversary, which is pretty crazy.
Was really reflecting on it yesterday. We finally got our
personal YouTube one million plaques and I put it up
in my office and I was.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Like, Wow, that's that's pretty cool. That actually meant something.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
How were we it rising?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
I think it was about two years so.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
We've significantly surpassed.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
The time we had together.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
At oh absolutely Rising.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Yeah, so it was to June of twenty nineteen when
I officially started hosting Rising with you. I think that's
like the official jump off point. And yeah, we left
exactly two years later.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
So there you go. Wow, twenty twenty one, so very
very end.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
So it's crazy three years to me, because to me
it still feels like new, like gretty yesterday. Yeah, like
you're still baby show, getting our legs under as et cetera.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
So it's definitely flown by.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
You're the ones that made it possible. Thank we love you,
and we thank you. All right, let's begin with Biden.
As Crystal said, I mean, this is something that came
out yesterday would tease a little bit in our show,
but we wanted to spend a lot of time here
because I mean, this is the biggest flashing red sign
that you could possibly have for Joe Biden. The polls
have basically been steady now and steadily declining for him.
Let's go and put this up there on the screen.
I mean, this is just stunning stuff. So here we
(04:42):
have in the five key states, quote, young and non
white voters expressing discontent with Biden, and the overall top
line numbers here are absolutely brutal. So we have Donald
Trump only behind Joe Biden in one swing state, and
that's the state of Wisconsin, and that's actually inside the
margin of error, so forty five percent for Donald Trump
and Joe Biden at forty seven. But everywhere else in Pennsylvania,
(05:05):
Trump is up by three. In Arizona, Trump is up
by seven, In Michigan, Trump is up by seven. In
Georgia you have Trump up by ten points. And in
Nevada you have him up by twelve. Oh so, I
mean so massively outside the margin of error that there's
basically only two options Biden is on track for like
(05:26):
catastrophic loss or the polls are totally wrong again. And
by the way, I do not want to discount that possibility,
because it's not like the New York Times cien pol
was all that correct.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
I'll put that at the top.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
In the past, it was off in the other direction.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
It overstated in the last election. The last New York
Times Siena Pol going into election date significantly overstated Joe
Biden's support, including I think they had him winning Wisconsin
by like ten points or something like that. It was
barely Yeah, so who knows, like you have to hold
that possibility out there actually given Democratic Party results, which
(06:02):
have performed polls in a lot of these special elections,
but twelve points in Nevada, that is way outside of
the margin of error. And also soccer, It's not like
these poll numbers are you know, the only ones out.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
They're not a big outlier.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
We've been seeing even at the times when Joe Biden
seemed like he was doing a little better in the
national head to heads, the battleground polls that would come out,
they've always looked terrible. But you know, this is considered
really a like gold standard pole. They invest a lot
of money, there's a lot of credence put into these polls,
especially in Democratic circles, and for it to be this
disastrous is really something.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
What's even more interesting, and of course counter narrative is
where are these gains coming from? So I will read
mister Trump's strength is largely things to gains amongst young
black and Hispanic voters. Actually, Biden's doing pretty damn well
amongst white folks, and even better if you want to
consider suburban ladies. Now, it says here the sense mister
Biden would do little to improve the nation's fortunes has
(07:01):
eroded his standing amongst the young, black, and Hispanic voters,
who have usually represented the foundation of the Democratic Party.
They found that the three groups want fundamental changes to
American society, not just a return to normalcy. Few believe
mister Biden would make even minor changes that would be
good for the country. I can't say that they're wrong
given what we've had for four years. Right now, it
(07:22):
says that amongst eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump
is actually tied with Joe Biden. Amongst young voters and
Hispanic voters, these are groups which previously would vote for
Biden at what sixties almost seventy percent margins. I only
have to go back to twenty sixteen to see Donald
Trump only win some thirty percent of the Latino vote.
I mean, right now he's on track to win fifty
(07:44):
and if you segregate that out and make it just men,
it's probably on track to win.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
A pretty large majority of those votes.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I mean, that's a massive realignment that's happened just in
the last eight years. Now Here, also amongst black voters.
It says that Trump is currently winning about twenty percent
of black voters. That would be the highest level of
Black support for a Republican presidential candidate since the enactment
of the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four. And Gaza,
(08:11):
of course, is one that we can't erase. Inside of this,
we see significant dissatisfaction from President Biden's left on the
issue of Gaza. But Chrystal, I'll let you go on this,
because what you flagged is that Gaza is the only
thing where left voters are really abandoning. It's actually a
lot of very centrist types who are like, I'm done
with this guy, I can't do with it.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Yeah, So I'll read you what at their ride up
and then we can talk about a little bit more.
They say, mister Biden's losses are concentrated among moderate and
conservative Democratic leaning voters who nonetheless think that the system
needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. There's
so many things in there that, in your language, sagas
counter narrative.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
First of all, the fact.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
That these quote unquote centrist voters just want like, don't
mess with the status quot very much. Actually, these voters
are like, man, screw this whole systems doesn't serve anybody
like I hate this, dude. I don't care if you're
threatening you with Trump. It's a radical view of the country,
even from people who are self described as moderate or
conservative Democratic leaning voters. Trump wins just two percent of
(09:13):
mister Biden's very liberal twenty twenty voters who think the
system at least needs maje or changes, compared with sixteen
percent of those who are moditor or conservative. However, so
most of the losses from Biden's twenty twenty coalition are
coming among those more centrist or more conservative Democratic leaning voters. However,
the one exception is on Gaza, where you do have
(09:33):
erosion among Biden's support with young and more progressive voters.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
That's what they say.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
One exception is Israel's war in Gaza, an issue on
which most of mister Biden's challenge appears to come from.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Is left.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Around thirteen percent of the voters who say they voted
for Biden last time but do not plan to do
so again say that his foreign policy or the war
in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote.
Just seventeen percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel
over the Palestinians. So if you take the pool of
voters who say I voted for Biden last time, I'm
(10:04):
not doing it again, thirteen percent of them it's over
his policy Visa vi Gaza, and overwhelmingly it's because they
find him to be too too support of Israel, too
ambivalent to the humanitarian concerns of Palestinians. So just problems
really across the board for Biden and Sacer, you know,
(10:26):
is zooming out because you're right to point out that
much of his erosion, if not all, of his erosion,
comes among the young and among non white voters. You know,
thinking about young people in particular. Not only do you
have obviously Isra's Warren Gaza, which we've talked a lot
about and political impact of that as well. But you know,
the real case that the Democrats make is you got
to vote for us to be a bulwark against Trump.
(10:47):
Trump is going to fix your public life for nearly
a decade now in term of political public life. And
so if you think about people who were coming of
age when Donald Trump was, you know, running his campaign
and assending to the presidency like he doesn't feel abnormal
to them. This has been their adult life. So this
idea of like, oh this is you know, this is
(11:08):
extremely abnormal and we have to do everything we can
to forestall this potential result of Donald Trump is sending
again to the presidency. It just doesn't carry the water
with them that it may with older voters who have
a different conception of what the American president should see
should be like in a much longer you know, personal
history and experience of what that office looks like. Where
(11:29):
Donald Trump still feels like this giant abnormality in American politics,
and so I think that's part of the generational divide
here as well. And then look obviously Biden being old
and enfeebled and the people feeling really bad about the economy,
these are terrible things for him that you know, maybe
he should think about potentially running on an actual plan
(11:49):
to deliver from people on the economy versus what is
clearly not working, which is just saying abortion and Trump
is bad.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Yeah, no, you're right.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I mean literally all you have to do is look
at any of the signs that matter most, and I
think that's the ability to make it. You have huge
problems with wages. They always brag about their unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate doesn't matter when you have millions of people
who've even dropped out of the workforce, underemployed, not making
enough wages to keep up with inflation. I've got it
right here in front of me. Even the front page
(12:16):
of the New York Times this morning is high interest
rates are hitting poorer American's hardest. Yeah, you think, you know,
imagine having to explain that to your New York Times
subscriber audience, like, Wow, I had no idea that it
was so difficult out there that, Oh, it turns out
if you're twenty eight or twenty nine. Great point, which is,
if you're twenty eight or twenty nine, only a couple
of years younger than me and basically.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Your entire adult life.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Donald Trump really became a true political figure with birth rhythm.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
That was twenty eleven.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
That's been more than a decade now, it's thirteen years
of your entire political life that you've known about this guy.
You've seen all the I mean, look as somebody was there,
you know, young and coming up in the business. Seeing
what he did in twenty sixteen, that was crazy. This
time around it just doesn't feel crazy anymore because it's not.
We live through the presidency. I know what it was like.
Wasn't that bad a lot of people for especially when
(13:06):
you compare the economic data, You're like, listen, it was unambiguous.
I definitely was better off under Trump. Now, there's a
lot of factors. But you know, I'm here.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
The Biden administration basically wants to sit there and.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Let you explain to them why it's not their fault
it's actually Trump's fault and democracy and abortion and all that.
And I won't discount that. I think it is very important.
But the truth is, is it just not landing, And
I don't think it should. Let's put this up there
as well on the screen, because we, of course were
leaving out RFK Junior in some of this analysis. They
also included RFK Junior in the three way or actually
(13:36):
in a five way race. So here's what we have
in Nevada, and this is with RFK Junior, Jill Stein
and all of them who are included. In Nevada, Trump
is up fourteen percent with RFK Junior on the ballot.
In Georgia, Trump is up eight percent with RFK Junior
on the ballot. In Wisconsin, Trump is up, it's up
by one percent. With RFK Junior. Michigan, Biden is only
(13:56):
up by three. Pennsylvania, Trump is up by four. Arizona,
Trump is up by nine. Now keep in mind that
you might be tempted to say, oh, this means that
RFK Junior is taking more away from Trump or from Biden.
It's actually not true. He draws equally according to these
cross tabs, both from Joe Biden and from Donald Trump.
It's just that the lead for Trump gets exacerbated when
(14:18):
you also include Jill Stein in some of these, where
you see both the libertarian candidate and Jill Stein draw
significantly more away from Joe Biden. So it is clear
now too why Joe Biden has been so undemocratic in
the Democratic primary and others, because it is very obvious
that any any third party ballot is just devastating for
(14:39):
him because it gives people options. The less options that
people can have, they're gonna be bad for him. Trump too,
by the way, I mean, even though he is leading
in this, it's not like he isn't winning in these cases.
He's winning only a plurality, not nearly. You know, any
sort of outright majority in any of these states.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Can we put those numbers back up on the screen,
because I just want to emphasize the Nevada numbers, which
are stunning. Okay, look at this Trump forty four, Biden
thirty thirty percent of the vote in a state that
you won pretty handily. It wasn't all that close in
the end. Last time around, RFK Junior pulling eleven percent.
(15:19):
Map said, who's I guess anticipated to be the Libertarian candidate?
Speaker 4 (15:22):
Their convention is what this weekend?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Something like that in any case pulling two percent and
Jill Stein pulling one percent. Thirty percent of the vote.
Zejilani floated on Twitter, which I think is an interesting
theory that part of why Biden is doing particularly bad
in a place like Nevada is, I mean, for one thing,
you have this younger, more working class, and more diverse
(15:47):
electorate where you know, they're looking at the interest rate phenomenon,
the fact like I'm never going to be able to
afford a house and now am I ever going to
send my kids to college? And young people are looking
like what future do I possibly have? And you know
it's directly downstream of that that you see these huge
gulf emerge in favor of Donald Trump. It's really I mean,
(16:09):
it's really astonishing if these polls are anywhere close to correct,
like it's.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
Something dramatic, dramatic.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Would really have to change in favor of Joe Biden.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
You know.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
The one other thing that I just want to point
out because it's a particular annoyance for me, is I
saw all kinds of you know, centrist types on Twitter,
like scolding the lad dare you criticized Biden over Israel
and your gosslame the election?
Speaker 4 (16:31):
Blah blah blah.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Just first of all, people have a right to criticize
the president, especially when he's enabling with our tax dollars atrocities.
So just from a moral perspective, that position, to me
is completely bankrupt. But second of all, it's not even
consistent with where the biggest problems are for Joe Biden.
Where's the scolding of the moderates and the centrists in
the conservative leaning Democrats who are fleeing him over a
(16:54):
variety of issues, but I think economic issues in particular,
and just their sense that he's too frick and old
as well. Where's that scolding and freak out and you know,
preparing to blame them and throw them under the bus
for handing the election or being secret Trump supporters or whatever.
So there's a lot in here that really does dispel
some of the media narratives about the contours of this election.
(17:17):
But given how close it was last time around, it
is true that any one piece of this coalition eroding
away from Joe Biden, any one piece, could be fatal
for his reelection chances.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
And when you have multiple piece.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Basically the only people who are really strong with him
and been consistent are like old white people.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, that's pretty much it, right, And.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
So when you have erosion everywhere else, what do you
think the picture is going.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
To look like?
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (17:43):
You know, I would be remiss too important about Nevada.
You know, the gas price in Nevada is still four
dollars and forty cents a gallon, and actually it's five
twenty in California. I don't know how you wow out there,
that's crazy, But Nevada, I mean, the economy in Nevada
has always been very, very sensitive not only to gas prices, tourism,
high inflation. That's going to affect people who are coming
(18:03):
in lower overall consumer spending. That's what they're particularly vulnerable to.
So it would make sense to me also that they're
very attuned. Their housing market has also always been crazy,
basically see since two thousand and eight. So all of
that comes back to the actual fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Here you have.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Again we'll play CNN's Harry End and it's just always
amusing to see people in mainstream spaces.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Have to grapple with what's going on. And here's what
he had to say.
Speaker 6 (18:28):
I think it's essentially saying that we have a divide
between the Sumbout and Great Lake battleground states. All Right,
you know, these are all six states that Joe Biden
won last time around. They won by the closest margin
of enery states. He wont look these sumbout battleground states.
Frankly for the Joe Biden campaign. These numbers are an
absolute disaster. The smallest leaders in Arizona for Donald Trump,
He's up six. Look at this nine in Georgia, thirteen
(18:50):
in Nevada. My goodness, gracious, my god, that is a
huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John
Kerry lost it back in two thousand and four. About
these Great Lake battleground states. This is something that the
Joe Biden campaign can work with. Look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump
up three, but that's well within the margin of error. Wisconsin,
donald Trump up one, well within the margin of error.
(19:11):
And actually a Joe Biden lead well within the margin
of error up a point here. This they can work
with the Joe Biden campaign. This the Donald campaign. Donald
Trump campaign absolutely loves and it looks like a lot
of the other polling out of the Sunbelt battle and
the Trump coalition is changing. That's basically what's cooking here.
This is at least one of the big reasons why
so this is among likely voters in these in all
(19:32):
these battleground states we just spoke about. Back in twenty twenty,
eighty four percent of the Trump campaigns, the Trump coalition
was white. Look where it is now, it's seventy eight percent.
The non white portion of the Trump coalition. It was
thirteen percent in twenty twenty. Look at this now it's
nineteen percent.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
I mean, he's laying out exactly and it's just the
stunning nature that comes to him is amazing. You also,
we have some of the quotes just from people it's
always good to hear actual anecdotal Why exactly I am
the way I am right now, let's put this up
there on the screen. This is, for example, somebody who's
voting split ticket and Brian Dickinson. He's a twenty five
year old registered Democrat. He says, Jackie Rosen has been
(20:15):
around a long time. He said he was considering splitting
his ticket and voting for Trump. I think she's a
very good Democrat. Let's go to the next one.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I love people now.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
This guy, Terry Crabtree. He is a disabled, fifty two
year old from Maricopa County. He says, I'm not a
party person. I am more for the state, and Diego
has done a good job for the state.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
I cannot democrat Bay.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
He's a Democrat, and he says I cannot stand Biden.
I think he ought to be in prison. I think
Trump should be in prison as well. I hate being
given those two choices.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
Relatable sentiment.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Next one, this is Joseph Gonzalez. He is a sixty
year old Hispanic truck driver in Milwaukee. This is of
Tammy Baldwin. He says, I think I like what she's
basically doing. But on Biden, he says, I do not
like what Biden is doing. He's failing for the United
States one please. And what you see in all of
these is that you basically have a lot of people
who are willing to split tickets. Because what we didn't
(21:08):
show you is that in the same poll that had
Trump winning every single swing state, the Democrats are up
in every Senate state. Bob Casey beating Dave McCormick. You
have Jackie Rosen, She's up over her opponent in Nevada.
I mean, you actually have a case where, I.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Mean, this would be nuts.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
So let's say this is correct, where Trump would win
not only the popular vote with the electoral college, but
the Democrats would actually be actually win every single contested
election and keep the US Senate.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
That's totally within the possibility with.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Am absolutely is and I think it's another.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
So the Democratic cope, which is with some basis right,
is that Okay, yeah, we've been seeing these poles that
are bad for a while, including before the midterms when
we outperformed. Let's not forget that. But you know, when
it comes to voters actually going to the polls, they
are backing Democrats, and the polls are understating Democratic support go,
we don't buy these polls. There's just an Axios piece
(22:02):
this morning about how the Biden team genuinely doesn't believe
the polls. They think it's all well and good. They
think they're perfectly fine, and that is the basis for
their reasoning. Well, what you see in these polls is
that no, no, no. The fact that we're voting for
Democrats at the state level, for Congress, even for Senate,
that has nothing to do with Joe Biden. Joe Biden
(22:24):
is a different matter altogether, and there's a different sentiment
when it comes to him. And so that's why it's
so interesting to hear these swing state voters who are saying, no, Actually,
I like Ruben Gag, I like Jackie Rose. I think
she's a good Democrat. I think she's doing good job.
Tam Baldwin, I'm good with these sort of like more
generic Democrats, but I have a specific negative sentiment about
(22:46):
Joe Biden. And so at least according to these polls,
you could see some remarkable levels of ticket splitting that
we haven't seen in years. I mean, the whole trend
has been in the opposite direction, where people are party
line voters, and it's all tribal, and it's all just
divided by what your party affiliation is, and so there's
very little splitting of the ticket between you know, presidential
(23:07):
Canada Senate candidate or on down the line. These poles say, no,
Joe Biden is performing uniquely badly among all voters. And
so you could very well see, if again these polls
are accurate, a situation where the rest of the Democratic
Party ticket does great. The ballot initiative, abortion ballot initiatives
(23:27):
for you know, on the pro choice side do fantastic.
The congressional people running for Congress, for the House, for
the Senate, etc. Do great on the Democratic side, and
Joe Biden gets his butt handed to him. That is
a real scenario that is on the table right now.
I just want to go back and make one comment
about the Harry Enton analysis there where he had you know,
the sun Belt States versus the what used to be
(23:49):
called the blue Wall States piled you know, industrial Midwest,
and it's very clear why Biden is kind of hanging
in there in the Blue Wall States versus getting obliterated
in the sun Belt States, which he won last time
with much fanfare. And this was the new Democratic Coalition,
et cetera, et cetera. It's because those Sun Belt states
(24:09):
are younger and more diverse, and the industrial Midwestern states
have more older white people, and that's who Joe Biden
is continuing to.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Do well with. So that's why you see that divide.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
And I think that Harry Enton is right to say, listen,
if you're going to make a stand and you're going
to try to eke out your narrow path to two seventy,
the place to really place your bets is, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Pennsylvania versus Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (24:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
No, I think you're absolutely right. And look, let's not
erase it's still you know, it's only May. There're several
months ago. Abortion has scrambled everything. Recent evidence suggests that
we should not undercount Democratic support. Further, recent evidence says
we should not underestimate Trump support in all of these
So we genuinely have no idea. But just to underscore
(24:56):
how big of a problem this is, let's put this
up there on the screen.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
This is what the elector College would look like if
there were no toss ups.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
According to the RCP, polling average, Joe Biden would win
two hundred and twenty six electoral votes. Trump would win
a stunning three hundred and twelve. I mean, we have
not actually seen an electoral college victory like that in
a long time in this country, so that would certainly
be something to wake up on. Whatever in what is
it November fifth, twenty twenty four, Please don't prosecute me
(25:24):
for election missing.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
I'm just speculating.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
I'm not putting it out there, but let's put the
next one there up on the screen. This is also
important to highlight because this is from an anonymous Twitter account.
You miss voted a great guy, by the way he says,
or know who it is. We are back to twenty sixteen.
People want to tear down the system entirely or want
major changes. This highlights what you said. Most Americans think
(25:47):
that the system needs to change. The system needs to
be torn down entirely fourteen percent, Major changes fifty five percent,
no change twenty seven percent. And I think really what
you see too, is with Trump support about who they
think is going to bring more change.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
This has always been Trump's fundamental strength.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Twenty five percent of people think it's going to tear
down the system entirely, and a major forty five percent
of people think he will bring major changes. Trump was
the chaos, shake things up candidate, and this gets right
as he aptletely correct. Twenty sixteen is the correct metaphor
because twenty sixteen was a status quo or a change election.
Twenty twenty was kind of It was a change election,
(26:25):
but I guess change away from the chaos, and this
kind of validates a theory of politics that basically posts
nineteen ninety six. Every election, almost for the last twenty
something years has been a quote unquote change election. It's
just that who and what we think of change in
that time is what really motivates people to come to
the ballot box. This is a totally different switch from
(26:48):
the early center. I'm reading a book right now called
crand Expectations, which is all about the United States from
nineteen forty five to nineteen seventy two.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
It is fascinating for me to.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Think and put my head in a space where Americans
not only had faith, but a deep love and affection
for the institutions and for the status quo. We don't
live in that time anymore. It is we're really living
through nineteen thirties again or in nineteen twenties, like complete
just dissatisfaction, chaos, not just from protests and others. We
had a brief period in the nineteen sixties, but this
(27:20):
is a sustained period of people wanting change now for
so long that it is it is very reminiscent of
a very long time ago in American history.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah, this theory of recent politics is that you have
this yo yo effect between almost even like presidential personality.
So you have you know, George W. Bush, who presents
us this sort of like sider you know, yeah, low
iq relative, you know, plain spoken whatever, and then the
backlash to that brings you Obama, the professorial error diite
like you know, incredibly rhetorically gifted, et cetera, et cetera.
(27:54):
Then from Obama you go to you know, the populist
rabble rouser at least that's his affect, Donald try tr so,
you know, told, whereas Obama is this picture of sort
of like civilized sophistication, Trump is this you know, rude,
crude reality TV star. Then you go to Biden. So
(28:14):
from the chaos of Trump, then it's like, ah, can
we just have things be like a little bit normal
and like not crazy every single friking day. Joe Biden
the picture of like boring standard normalcy in Washington, d C. That, especially,
you know, coming as he did among like COVID and
the chaos that was going on there and the incredible
(28:36):
dissatisfaction with you know, the state of affairs during COVID,
he's able to come in. And then what these polls
point to and why they're significant, is the landscape's really
different from twenty twenty, right, And by the way, you know,
the sense of like normalcy and the back to brunch
pitch it.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
Didn't really work out. Still a lot of chaos.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
World still feels incredibly unsettled, maybe more so than ever.
So what is the Biden pitch this time? Like, what
is he really selling other than just I'm not Trump
and you know, abortion, that's it. So according to these polls,
that's not going to be sufficient for a group of
voters that overwhelmingly are like, now, we got to do
(29:15):
some things that are really different at this point because
this direction we're going on is an absolute disaster. And
you know, if you're thinking about who's going to overturn
the apple cart it's not Joe Biden, it's Donald Trump.
And I think you know, plenty would argue like, Okay,
we'll change for change sake is not good and chaos
is not, you know, just inherently a good thing. But
if you look at the number of people who say
(29:37):
we want major change or to tear the whole system down,
those people are overwhelmingly going for Trump, and they make
up the bulk of American voters at this point. So
in some ways I think that that those numbers are
almost the most insightful into what the political climate is
right now and why it is really not a political
climate that is conducive to the re election of Joseph Robinette.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
Biden well said, you don't have to take it from
us here.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
You've got Joe Biden's favorite political commentator, which is always
very difficult for me to say. Farid with Zakaria over
at CNN on Saturday giving a monologue that Biden almost
certainly saw, in which he sounds a very dire warning.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
Let's take a listen.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
None of this is playing out as I thought it would.
Trump is now leading in almost all the swing states,
But behind those numbers lie even more troubling details. As
someone worried about the prospects of a second Trump term,
I think it's best to be honest about reality. I
understand that polls are not always accurate, but in general
(30:41):
they have tended to underestimate Donald Trump's support, not overestimated.
I doubt that there are many shy Biden voters in
the country. Perhaps the most worrying new trend for the
Democrats is that far from being the more unified party,
they are now bitterly divided over the Warren Gazo. Bernie
Sanders has said the eruption of pro Palestinian protests could
(31:03):
be Biden's Vietnam, and even invoked the specter of Lyndon
Johnson choosing not to run for re election in nineteen
sixty eight, because with the opposition to that war, the
analogy is far fetched. America then was itself sending hundreds
of thousands of troops to Vietnam, with more being recruited
from college campuses every week. But there's no denying that
(31:27):
the party seems more openly divided than it has been
in decades. Only thirty three percent of Americans said they
approved of Biden's handling of the Israel Hamas War, which
is now opposed both by people who think he is
too soft and people who think he is too hard
on Israel. Meanwhile, Republicans seem to be uniting behind Trump.
(31:49):
Whatever opposition he faced in the primaries has largely melted away.
The one that troubles me the most is on the
question of who was the more competent. Joe Biden led
Donald Trump by nine points in twenty twenty, but Trump
now leads by sixteen points in January twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Look, can't really dispute a single word of what he says.
We also have an interesting interview with Charlemagne, the God.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
Who did for The New York Times, interestingly.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Enough, which perhaps represents some of the sentiment that we
saw the bleeding way of black voters for Joe Biden.
This is for what he had to say about why
he won't be endorsing Biden again.
Speaker 8 (32:28):
I'm not endorsedon because I just feel like I've been
burned with that before. You know, because you put your
name on the line, you endorse somebody, You tell your
audience this is who you should go out there and
vote for, and your audience goes and does it. And
then when they don't see these things that they thought
were going to get pushed through, they don't understand civics.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
They're not thinking about that.
Speaker 8 (32:47):
They're like, all they know is Charlemagne told me to
vote for this person because this was going to happen,
and this didn't happen. I think they said the numbers
like twenty two percent. I don't think that twenty two
percent of black people are going vote for Donald Trump.
I think the biggest thing that people are going to
have to fight against this year is the couch. And
that's what I've been saying. I keep saying it over
and over, like this election is three options. Republicans who
(33:10):
are to crooks, Democrats who would have couch because they
don't fight enough for nothing in the couch, and the
couch is voter apathy.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Crooks versus the cowards versus the couch. That's what pres due,
to be honest.
Speaker 3 (33:20):
With you, He's right.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
I mean, look, we've had the problem is is that
I actually think a low turnout election plays out in
Biden's favor because it just means that the people who
love to vote and who vote in every election, boomers
and white suburban ladies, those are the people who are
going to vote for Biden. Whereas I think, as we
showed back in twenty twenty, high turnout election generally meet.
In twenty sixteen two twenty sixteen, millions of people who had.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
Not voted as the nineteen eighties came out and voted
for Trump.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
It's part of the reason when the polls were so off,
they've not only came back to the polls, they brought
even more people who had never voted before in twenty twenty.
If we have a lower turnout election, lest it was
a forties or fifty percent this time around as opposed
to two thirds last time, I think it plays out
in Joe Biden's favor.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
But look, you never know, right, Yeah, there's a lot
of confounding.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Stuff, and Charlamagne doesn't bring up any specific issues there,
but I know in the past he's talked about, you know,
great disappointment over the promises that were made over voting
rights in particular, and then there's just you know, they
said that during the election because they wanted to make
sure that black voters turn out to the poll and
signal that you know, we're on your side, et cetera.
And then to his point about them being cowards not
(34:27):
just on this issue, but on any number of.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Issues that you could take a look at. Let me
get there.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
There's just nothing but excuses for why we can't do this.
We can't do that. Sorry, we tried, We want to,
but we're with you, but we just it's just too hard.
Except when it comes to funding worse then you know,
then it happens. Then the bipartisan magic comes together and
whatever needs to pass comes to pass. So you know,
you can't blame him for feeling like I was made
a set of promises I used, I trusted that I
(34:52):
made a set of promises and effect to my audience
saying like, I think this is the person who can
deliver these things that you're interested in, and I'm just
not going to put myself in that position. Again, you
really can't blame them. Just quickly going back to Free
Zakaria and his commentary about the Israel's assault on Gaza,
there were some interesting numbers in this poll as well.
They asked the question about who do you sympathize more
(35:13):
with the Israelis or the Palestinians. Democrats Now a plurality
sympathized with the Palestinians, which is an extraordinary shift from
previous years. Up to this point, you have thirty five
percent who say they sympathize with the Palestinians, over twenty
four percent who say they sympathize with the Israelis. The
remainders say don't know or both equally. Republicans very one sided.
(35:37):
It's seventy two percent sympathize more with Israel, six percent
to sympathize more with the Palestinians. And the other thing
is huge h divide, which won't surprise you, guys if
you've been watching this coverage eighteen to twenty nine, you
got forty seven percent who say we sympathize more with
the Palestine, so very close to a majority. Owned twenty
three percent say they're with the Israelis sixty five plus
(36:00):
opposite majority. Fifty five percent were with Israel, only fourteen
percent were with the Palestinians.
Speaker 4 (36:06):
So you see.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Huge both partisan and generational divides in terms of how
they're viewing this conflict. And to Frei Zakaria's accurate point,
this has really Joe Biden's policy here is not popular
with the Democratic base and has really divided the Democratic
(36:27):
coalition and created not just apathy but utter disgust among
some certain portion of that Democratic base.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
So you know, these are.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
When you look at who's fleeing the Biden camp. As
we said before, most of those people are actually more
on the moderate to conservative side. But of the lefties
and progressives who voted for him in twenty twenty and
who have left the Biden camp, it is overwhelmingly over
this one issue.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
Yeah, it's Look, he's got coalitional problems all over the map.
He can't really afford any of them, not really inspiring
or speaking to the wants and the needs of concerns
of any and so you get basically a total collapse.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I mean more and more.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
This just looks a lot like Jimmy Carter that I've
said previously. His only saving grace is some sort of
hidden abortion you know phenomenon, which is a hell of
a thing to you know, to bet your entire political
future on. That's stunning. But that's that is the choice
that he has decided to make. Yah, It's the most
apathetic choice you could possibly make. But it makes sense
(37:27):
for what some an eighty two year old man who
would be if he were to be reelected.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
Yeah, they're they're opting for just running on abortion and
Trump is bad, and really avoiding campaigning anywhere where they
can see this descent, including as we covered yesterday, very
possibly moving the entire DNC online to avoid recriminations from
their own voter base. I just listen for people who
(37:52):
are a little younger. I don't know if you could understand,
like Obama was the candidate of like the College. The
whole idea was these younger generations are going to be
firmly in the Democratic camp, like it's done as they
come of age. Republicans are totally screwed. There were books
that were I think it was what James Carvell wrote
this book forty more years based on this concept of
(38:15):
you know, these young people are growing up and there'll
be a bulk of a voting population and then it's
over for the Republicans. So the idea that a Democratic
president cannot even go to a college campus disaster, utter
and complete disaster. All right on the other side of
a ledger, we have one Donald Trump who's spending his
(38:36):
week in a Manhattan courtroom, and as I teased earlier,
the prosecution had their star witness on the stand yesterday.
That would be former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who was
at the center of these quote unquote hush money payments.
You know, he was the one who interfaced with them
and facilitated them.
Speaker 4 (38:57):
He actually actually he had a mo I forgot this.
He mortgaged his house to be.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Able to make the payment, and then Trump pays him back.
Speaker 6 (39:03):
You know.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
The legal question here is were those payments properly recorded
and should they have been logged instead as a campaign
finance expenditure. And the key legal question there is whether
they were exclusively to benefit the campaign or whether there
were other reasons along with it could also have a
campaign benefit, But were there other reasons for making these payments?
(39:26):
For example, wanting your wanting to avoid your wife finding
out about your affair with a porn star. Alleged affair
with a porn star. He still denies it. Okay, let's
put this up on the screen. In terms of what
Michael Cohen had to say, he says Trump was primarily
concerned about presidential election when he sought to bury Stormy
Daniel's testimony. He says that Cohen testified after he told
(39:49):
Trump Daniels claims might resurface that fall. Trump grew angry
with him, told him to quote, just take care of it.
He said to me, this is a disaster, total disaster.
Women are going to hate This is really a disaster.
Speaker 4 (40:01):
Women will hate me.
Speaker 1 (40:02):
Guys may think it's cool, but this is going to
be a disaster for the campaign. At the time, Cohen explained,
mister Trump was pulling very, very low with women. He
was pulling very poorly with women, and this coupled with
the previous Access Hollywood tape. So that's an important piece
of context. Here is this Stormy Daniels you know story
potentially coming out happened in the wake of Access Hollywood
(40:24):
when there was real concern about it, how women voters
were going to view them and whether they, you know,
would totally take his campaign. When Cohen asked how Stormy
Daniels claims might impact Trump's relationship with Milania, Trump told him, quote,
don't worry, He goes, how long do you think I'll
be on the market for?
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Not long?
Speaker 1 (40:40):
Cohen recounted, So basically the implication they're like, if Millennia
leaves me, like, I'm not going to be on the
market for long. Some woman is going to snatch me
up right away. It's not going to be any issue
she divorces me, is you know, allegedly allegedly what I
have been here? And Cohen concludes he wasn't thinking about millenia.
This was all about the campaign. So that's his side
of the story. The defense is going to talk and
(41:04):
already has talked a lot about you know, Michael Cohen
is a convicted felin for it wasn't convicted for lying liar,
So that's a challenge. And you also have listen. There
was a tape that Cohen has that relates to Susan
McDougall's she used the other Karen mccaron McDougal.
Speaker 4 (41:24):
I always get that wrong.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
I don't want to call her Susan, but anyway, sorry
Karen Karen mc Karen McDougall, and the payments that he
facilitated with David Packer in National Choir or whatever. But
he doesn't have any direct documentation of these conversations. And
these conversations are really really critical because they do get
at that question of whether this was directly a campaign
(41:46):
expenditure or whether it had to do with the campaign,
but also with I want to hide this from my wife,
So it becomes kind of a he said, he said,
and who the jury believes wants to believe, et cetera.
So in any case, this is you know, this was
this case from the prosecution was really building to this
moment with Michael Cohen, and this is the story.
Speaker 4 (42:08):
He had to say.
Speaker 2 (42:09):
That's right, and right ahead of the testimony, Crystal Trump
had this to say.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
This help comes from Biden in the White House.
Speaker 7 (42:14):
By the way, and they have the top equal here
because he can't when he can't win two sentences together.
Speaker 9 (42:21):
He's the worst president in the history of our country.
Speaker 7 (42:24):
Can't speak, can't walk off a helicopter, can't walk off
a play, can't walk off a sage.
Speaker 9 (42:32):
And the only way they think they can win is that.
Speaker 5 (42:34):
They can do something with trub because we have.
Speaker 7 (42:37):
An incompetent, the worst president in the history of the
United States.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
Trump has been really enjoying doing these press conferences in
the trial. He seems to think that it makes him
look strong. I actually think, though, the more that we
continue to look at a lot of the polling, Crystal
that if anything, it's either a.
Speaker 3 (42:52):
Distraction or as long as Biden is.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
At the center of attention, and people are feeling macroeconomic conditions,
not thinking about Trump in general. Most people don't give
a shit about his political about his court appearances or whatever.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
If he's convicted, maybe, you know, it be another story.
Speaker 2 (43:08):
But the more consequential legal cases, the ones that people
really care about, trial is not likely to happen before
the election. The Trump people seem to think is a
net good for him.
Speaker 3 (43:16):
I don't. I'm not going to go that far.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
I don't think it's a good thing to be on
trial or to have people talk about affairs or even
the thing is with Michael Cohen too. With Michael Cohen,
the only reason he turned on Trump is because Trump
refused to pay him. Trump didn't want to continue to
pay his legal expenses. That was it. It was that
petty of a manner. And after that he flips on him.
He starts pleading guilty, cooperating as a federal witness, and
(43:39):
now you know, turning and embracing like the diaper Don
conspiracy and all this other stuff.
Speaker 4 (43:45):
But what doesn't besmirch the diaper Don considracy.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
But what's important to remember is that up until twenty eighteen,
whenever he flipped, he was the most ardent Trump defender.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
It was on television. I used to deal with him.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
I was a White House course, But I want to
see this idio walking around the White House grounds consultly.
Speaker 3 (44:02):
Mister Trump is the greatest businessman of all time.
Speaker 2 (44:05):
These are just you know, the classic hangar honors of politics,
of people who surround the super rich and the wealthy.
So it's very difficult to take him as a serious person,
especially with so many of his utterances.
Speaker 1 (44:18):
It's actually, it's actually interesting. He talks some about how
much he loved and worshiped.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Yeah, Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (44:25):
I've he talked some about that in this courtroom appearance,
and how his fondest wish and desire was just to
make Trump happy. And if he did something that was
good and Trump praised him, man, that.
Speaker 4 (44:38):
Just lit up his whole life.
Speaker 1 (44:39):
Which is how you end up, I guess, taking the
mortgage out on your house in order to pay a
billionaire's hush money payments. And then yeah, he's like, he's
sort of like the jilted lover. You know, Trump refuses
to back him after all of his loyalty and won't
pay his legal bills and whatever. And now it's a
it's a total one to eighty in terms of his
views of Donald Trump, and you know, becoming this star
(45:00):
witness for the prosecution. It is a wild situation given
that of all the cases that are out there, many
with much more serious allegation, all of the other ones
with much more serious allegations than this one, this is it.
I mean the other ones, it's there. They're not happening
before election day. Now that doesn't mean that they're over.
(45:20):
If Trump loses, He's still an incredible legal jeopardy from
all of those cases. So it's not like they're dead dead,
but in terms of electoral concern, for all intents and purposes,
they are. This is the This is the whole ball game.
One other thing to note about the thought that we
showed you of Trump, you had behind him a number
(45:41):
of Republican officials, including Senators Tommy Teverville and Jade Vance
and Congresswoman Nicole mally Takis.
Speaker 4 (45:47):
Is that her name?
Speaker 3 (45:47):
Yes? Okay?
Speaker 1 (45:49):
In any case, you've now got like the new way
to kiss the Trump ring is to show up and
be there at the courtroom with him and give your
own little press conference about what a which hunted is
blah blah, blah, and JD obviously is like, you know,
trying to position himself to hopefully be the Trump VP pick.
Kind of doubtful that he'll get the nod, but you
never know. So he was he, you know, was making
(46:11):
his moves to get into the Trump's best possible graces.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
That's right, JD was there. Vivike Ramaswami will be there today.
Oh for real, Yes, Vecas on site as we speak.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
Courthouse. Oh, here we go, okay, here, I have a
full list.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
Like an exclusively not exclusively everybody speaker. Mike Johnson will
be there. Doug Burgham will be big Doug representative, Byron Donalds,
vivike Ramaswami and Corey Mills. So Byron actually one of
the Byron and Doug Bergham the only two people on
that list who are prospective VP candidates.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
I wouldn't put too much stock in either of them.
Speaker 4 (46:47):
A lot of Doug Burgham chatter right now.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
That's what they say.
Speaker 2 (46:50):
I firmly believe that I think the best odds are
a woman. I think Trump e last dephonic. You can
you know I've been saying it here from I think
he loves her, he loves how spirited here defense is
I think she's also not a big enough star that
she would ever eclipse him, so I would put my
money on her. I also think that the race card
is one that Trump just loves a bit too much.
(47:11):
Tim Scott, you know very clear, Tim has been all
over cable TV kissing Trump's ass as well. Only if
Trump feels totally electorally secure, I think will he pick
somebody like Doug Burgham or jd Vance. But that's one
where you know, given the nature of the election, it
would be very difficult. Now it's certainly possible. Like, don't
get me wrong, but he loved that man. I loves
(47:31):
identy politics and he loves a media narrative more than anything,
and a woman or a black person is just one
that he couldn't get away from.
Speaker 1 (47:37):
I mean, how did he make his pick last time around?
He did it based on very naked monkey Vellyan political calculation.
Speaker 3 (47:44):
Yeah, and he was right, and he was right.
Speaker 1 (47:45):
I mean it was Mike Pence was a good choice
for him in that moment. It was a very wise
political choice, and I think he will make a very
similar choice this time around, because he has a lot
more to lose this time than he did last time.
I mean, his freedom is really at stake hinged on
the results of this election. So whatever he can be
(48:06):
persuaded of in terms of it's the best electoral calculus
for him. I think that's the direction he's likely to
go on based on his history and also what is
really at stake for him. Last saying just about the
Cohen testimony, I mentioned this before. CNN actually had this
audio a number of years ago, but Cohen recorded this
(48:26):
one conversation with Trump with in regards to these Karen
McDougall payments. Now this one the structures a little different.
National Inquirer bought her story to. It was the whole
catch and kill scenario, and Cohen was worried that David Packer,
who's head of the National Inquirer, wouldn't believe him that
Trump was going to reimburse him for these payments that
(48:49):
he was going to make. So he surreptitiously recorded the
conversation with Trump to play for David Packer to look,
he's serious about this, He's going to repay you. I
don't think he actually ever did, but in any case,
that was the purpose of the recording. So let's take
a listen to this audio which was played in court.
Speaker 9 (49:07):
I need to open up a company for the transfer
of all of that info regarding our friend David, you know,
so that I'm going to do that right away. I've
actually come up and spoke to me and I've spoken
to Alan Weiseelberg about how to set the whole thing
up with so whatere we were funding. Yes, and it's
(49:30):
all the stuff, all the stuff because you know, you
never know where that company, you never know where he's
going to be, It's correct. So I'm all over that,
and I spoke to Alan about it. When it comes
time to the financing, which will be listening, answer you
will have to pay you, I'll no, no, no, no,
no no, I got no no.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
So there you go. That's, you know, clearly talking about
David Backer. He's talking about how we Weiselberg setting up
these payments, et cetera, et cetera. That's the one piece
of audio evidence that they have that was able to
bolster his testimony to the jury.
Speaker 4 (50:02):
And yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (50:03):
Which way this case is going to go. I could
really see either direction. I think it just depends a
lot on who this jury is and how they're processing
these various claims.
Speaker 3 (50:12):
No, I think you're right. It's all going to come
down to a level of reasonable doubt. I do.
Speaker 2 (50:16):
And this is the problem with the prosecution's case from
the very beginning. The plausibility of I just didn't want
my wife to find out is enough and believable that
you only need a single person who is there not
only to buy the reasonable doubt, but also not to
co sign the prosecution's extraordinary interpretation of New York finance
business accounting law. Remember that's what's actually at stake here.
(50:38):
So anyways, we will see what's happened. Let's get to
game Stop. So major breaking news. Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill,
the man behind the original meme stop craze on game stock,
is officially back. Let's go and put this up there
on the screen. Roaring Kitty Keith gil tweeting for the
(50:59):
very first time I'm in three years on his account,
which then immediately sparks a seventy four percent increase in
a single day on game stop stock. On top of that,
AMC another so called meme stock is up over one
hundred percent. They say that game Stop shares actually had
(51:20):
to be halted several times on the trading exchange because
of how high it was going, and ever and continues
actually to do so. Now Gil it appears, has not
yet done a video on YouTube. We're all awaiting that.
He recently was portrayed in the movie Dumb Money. Not
a particularly great movie, but it's if you're on an airplane,
you should watch it.
Speaker 3 (51:39):
That's the way I would put it.
Speaker 2 (51:40):
Dumb Money recently came out and kind of showed him
as this endearing nerd, you know, in his basement who
turned you know, what was it like, fifty thousand dollars
into forty eight million dollars on paper. Eventually sells, gets out,
subject of lawsuits, of congressional testimony. Most people thought they
would never see him again, but for some reason he
(52:00):
is officially back and back enough that it's always just
amusing watching CNBC and all these business anchors actually grapple
with this. So here's how they handle the news of
the return of Rooring Kitty.
Speaker 5 (52:13):
Yeah, so this is Keith Gill's first online post we've
seen in three years. Roaring Kitty, as he's also known,
was if you remember really the pied Piper of the
Memestock frenzy. In twenty twenty one, he led those online
traders to the infamous Game Stop short squeeze this morning,
posting kind of cryptic photo of somebody just leaning forward,
excuse me, in a chair, and that was enough to
(52:34):
send game Stop up. As you said, more than one
hundred percent. It has been halted for volagility. A Robert
Hu'm just sent out a note explaining this trading activity
for GM has been only ten minutes. The rest of
the day has been halted, and even with just ten
minutes of trading, the stock did three and a half
times the normal volume. But it's not just GM me guys.
(52:55):
Other so called memestocks like AMC are also catching a bit.
It is one sign of overall appetite increasing. You'll also
see that showing up in the options market, especially for
the most volatile corner of that ultra short maturities, once
really reserved for professional traders zero days to expire options
have climbed in popularity among every day investors. These are
(53:15):
one day bets on the direction of the market, which
can offer outsize returns rewards and also outsize risk.
Speaker 2 (53:21):
So you just got to love to see the translation
of risk appetite. There ain't no risk appetite. Okay, everyone's
just logging back into their robin Hood accounts and they're
having fun, which was the entire point of the game
stop craze. But I mean, look, I guess it just
does show the power is still there, Crystal, if you
want it to be.
Speaker 3 (53:37):
For the Internet.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
It was such a fun story at the time, the
short squeeze getting the big investors getting screwed inspired the
movie made Ken Griffin became a household name. There is
still some h really shady stuff that went on with
robin Hood.
Speaker 4 (53:51):
All of that.
Speaker 3 (53:51):
I think it was very.
Speaker 2 (53:52):
Illuminating episode for everyone because you're like, oh man, the
system really is rigged.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Absolutely, those are the pieces of it that made the
story so compelling and so like illustrative of the realities
of our economy. So first of all, let's just reflect
on the power of this one random dude who can
post a meme and move markets to this extent, Like
that's incredible, and especially because listen, we're used to like
(54:16):
you know, the Fed or like Titans of Wall Street
being able to do this, our Elon Musk, you know,
a billionaire being able to do the same but here
you have this guy who just through the force of
his like persistence, basically was able to persuade people like,
we're doing this, You're coming along, screw what they say,
We're all in, We're going to make this happen.
Speaker 4 (54:37):
We're going to screw the shorts.
Speaker 1 (54:39):
And you know, through just basically like his force and
persistence being able to move markets in this way. And
there's a few things that I always found really interesting
about the story. First of all, it really revealed something
that I think a lot of people intuitively know, which
is how fake the stock market is to begin with.
So the fact that you could have this on line
(55:00):
movement and really you know, take it to big Wall
Street players in a significant way, that was interesting and,
as I said.
Speaker 4 (55:08):
Sort of revealed how fake a lot of.
Speaker 1 (55:10):
This Wall Street shenanigans really are in stock market prices,
et cetera. But then you also had the other side
of it, which was listen, right when they're on the
verge of a real victory, the collusion that occurred, and
the you know, top down crushing of this movement, and
you know, they they made it so that on the
(55:30):
robin Hood platform you can no longer buy the stock,
you could only sell the stock, and that effectively, at
least for the time, really, you know, crushed the movement
and ended it. So it was this Dave and Goliath story.
David looked like he had the upper hand and then
Goliath comes in and then you know, we'reing. Kitty himself
as you were poorting to soccer, became the subject of all.
I mean, he was really aggressively. They dragged him in
(55:53):
front of Congress and lost. I mean, they went after
him like crazy. You would think he was the you know,
a villain of the central et cetera for his promotion
of the game stop stocks. So interesting to see he's
still got it apparently.
Speaker 3 (56:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (56:07):
I mean, his employer, mass Mutual was actually fine, like
four million dollars because he was working for them and
doing this stuff. On this side, he was a shit poster.
It's not even really fair, to be honest. I mean,
let's be real, like it's an amazing feat. He leveraged
his Internet personality. His YouTube videos and Reddit posts turned
fifty thousand dollars into some fifties. Nobody really knows how
(56:30):
much of a profit, but tens of millions and millions
of millions of dollars for him and for his family.
Speaker 3 (56:35):
I mean, that's that's the American dream.
Speaker 2 (56:37):
To me, somebody like that, that's the best of online influencer.
And he did it specifically by going after and beating
these hedge fund managers, who, as the movie accurately portrays,
are just the most like just the most the worst
people in the US. They create nothing, they do nothing,
made tens of billions of dollars betting and defeating and
(56:57):
trying to destroy companies. I mean, Ken griff entire innovation
is high frequency trading and basically getting an edge by
trading something three microseconds ahead of somebody else. Sorry, I
don't think you're adding all that much, you know, to
a value to the United States. But this man is
worth what thirty forty billion dollars, one of the richest
men in the United States. That's exactly why Gil became
(57:19):
such a popular figure in his own right. And every
time something like this happens, it does show you Again,
let's get to the communitarian aspect of what happened back
in twenty twenty one is where we just come out
of COVID. I'm sure you remember this too, Crystal. This
was right after January sixth, so things were tense. I
remember covering this and just being like, man, this is
the first fun story I've covered in years. It was
(57:41):
just it was great to just get wrapped up on it.
Speaker 3 (57:43):
Now.
Speaker 2 (57:44):
Not great for a lot of people out there. And
let's be honest, you did lose a lot of money,
but you know you're an adult. You know you should
at least know what you're doing. And by Keith's own admission,
you never told anybody to buy the stock per se.
Let's put this up there on the screen just to reiterate,
this is literally the meme that made it all happen.
Appears to show a guy who is gaming leaning forward.
He has since tweeted out like twenty five different of
(58:06):
his signature memes, which are like clips from movies and
other things inspirational. Wolverine coming out of the tank and
killing somebody, So maybe he's back. I would really love
to see him actually do a YouTube video. We have
one of those, we can put here on this green.
So here you've got Wolverine in the tank coming out,
you're seeing the god.
Speaker 3 (58:26):
What is the metal?
Speaker 4 (58:27):
The metal? I don't remember either.
Speaker 3 (58:28):
Totally blanking on the name right now, Griffin.
Speaker 4 (58:31):
You want to tell about the Wolverine origin story basically,
right or is that?
Speaker 3 (58:36):
I think that one's from Logan.
Speaker 4 (58:37):
No, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (58:38):
I think that was an accident because I never watched
Logan and I definitely have seen that.
Speaker 4 (58:42):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (58:42):
Uh, Okay, that was X two.
Speaker 4 (58:45):
Yeah, that makes sense, that makes sense. I actually loved
those movies.
Speaker 2 (58:47):
The X Men movies were gat yeah, big mag Anyways,
I think they're coming back actually, or there's some fusion
of the universe with Deadpool. That's X Men origins Wolverine.
That's according to our junior guy in the control room thing.
Speaker 8 (58:59):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (59:00):
We appreciate you, Ian.
Speaker 2 (59:02):
So it's one of those where the memes are back,
the stocks are back.
Speaker 3 (59:05):
This will be a fun story.
Speaker 2 (59:06):
Hopefully, maybe this time around they can crush somebody else
Wall Street Person's dreams.
Speaker 3 (59:11):
But we'll see.
Speaker 2 (59:11):
And we want to give everybody an update and get
some of the fun stuff into the show as well.
Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
ways we can up our game for this critical election.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Coverage that is possible.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
If you like what we're all about, it just means
the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,
let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
We have an amazing show for everybody today.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We have personal indeed, we do lots of interesting news
breaking this morning. We are going to be taking a
look at this blockbuster New York Times.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Poll that woof yikes bad for Joe.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Biden, really bad for Joe Biden. I mean, like down
double digits in Nevada bad for Joe Biden. So we'll
dig into that because there are a lot of other
interesting numbers besides those top lines. We also, in light
of those that news, we're going to show you Biden's
favorite news anchor basically pushing the alarm button and saying, hey,
you are on a path to defeat right now. So
(00:59):
there is a lot of freak out totally justified on
the Democratic side of the aisle right now. We also
had Trump back in the courtroom yesterday and what was
probably the most essential testimony in this hush money case
of Michael Cohen. Will tell you what he said and
what it could mean. Also, GameStop is back, Raring, Kitty
is back, He's back.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
What was the percentage in place yes as of this morning,
game stop up about seventy five percent AMC stock up
one all thanks to mister Keith Gill himself.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Very interesting times we're living in, Yes. Indeed, at the
same time, we've got some major developments with regard to
Ukraine that we did not want to lose sight of,
both on the Russian side and on the Ukrainian side,
So we'll break those down for you.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
A lot going on in.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Israel, of course, We're going to bring you a CNN
report about detainees being tortured by the Israelis, an Israeli
whistleblowerre actually bringing them these allegations.
Speaker 4 (01:49):
Quite stunning. There.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We also have IDF generals revolting against BB their reasons
really interesting. What this says about the divide in Israeli society.
And we have Senator Lindsay Graham suggesting, hey, how about
we just knew Gaza? How about that, joining a growing
list of politicians who are suggesting just out and out
atrost genicidal atrocities against Palestinians. We also are very excited
(02:13):
to talk to Arjun Singh. He's a producer for lever
News's new Revamp podcast, which I have to tell you
guys is excellent. I've been seeing as Praises Sager can vouch,
they have really up their game, and he's done some
fantastic reporting looking inside the Biden administration's unconditional support for Israel.
And this comes at a time when we have yet
another significant official in the State Department resigning over his
(02:37):
moral objections to the policy viz. A vi Israel and
the unconditional support, the flouting of American laws in order
to support Israel. And it's a Jewish man who resigned too.
So it's quite an interesting role position that he is
taking and worth taking a look at that as well.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
He's the active duty US Army major. I mean, it's
not something you just throw away, right, you know. I mean,
this is an entire career. Somebody who's already reached that
rank is spend a long time in the military, probably
on a career track. That's not something that you just
do lightly. We had similar resignations that happened in the past.
It used to get a lot of attention here. I
seem to recall whenever it was under Trump.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
Under Biden.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
You may be able to hear about it on a
show like Hours, Yeah about it maybe if you're on Twitter,
if you're on the right Twitter. But anyways, as Crystal said,
we've got a great show for everybody today. Thank you
to everybody who's been signing up for premium Breakingpoints dot
Com And as we continue to tease, we do have
a major, major announcement that is coming. That's all I
can say at this point, but it's going to be
a massive upgrade in our premium service. We're always thinking
(03:33):
about everybody, especially on the heels. We've only got two
weeks to go a three year anniversary, which is pretty crazy.
Was really reflecting on it yesterday. We finally got our
personal YouTube one million plaques and I put it up
in my office and I was.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Like, Wow, that's that's pretty cool. That actually meant something.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
How were we it rising?
Speaker 3 (03:48):
I think it was about two years so.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
We've significantly surpassed.
Speaker 4 (03:53):
The time we had together.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
At oh absolutely Rising.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Yeah, so it was to June of twenty nineteen when
I officially started hosting Rising with you. I think that's
like the official jump off point. And yeah, we left
exactly two years later.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
So there you go. Wow, twenty twenty one, so very
very end.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
So it's crazy three years to me, because to me
it still feels like new, like gretty yesterday. Yeah, like
you're still baby show, getting our legs under as et cetera.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
So it's definitely flown by.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
You're the ones that made it possible. Thank we love you,
and we thank you. All right, let's begin with Biden.
As Crystal said, I mean, this is something that came
out yesterday would tease a little bit in our show,
but we wanted to spend a lot of time here
because I mean, this is the biggest flashing red sign
that you could possibly have for Joe Biden. The polls
have basically been steady now and steadily declining for him.
Let's go and put this up there on the screen.
I mean, this is just stunning stuff. So here we
(04:42):
have in the five key states, quote, young and non
white voters expressing discontent with Biden, and the overall top
line numbers here are absolutely brutal. So we have Donald
Trump only behind Joe Biden in one swing state, and
that's the state of Wisconsin, and that's actually inside the
margin of error, so forty five percent for Donald Trump
and Joe Biden at forty seven. But everywhere else in Pennsylvania,
(05:05):
Trump is up by three. In Arizona, Trump is up
by seven, In Michigan, Trump is up by seven. In
Georgia you have Trump up by ten points. And in
Nevada you have him up by twelve. Oh so, I
mean so massively outside the margin of error that there's
basically only two options Biden is on track for like
(05:26):
catastrophic loss or the polls are totally wrong again. And
by the way, I do not want to discount that possibility,
because it's not like the New York Times cien pol
was all that correct.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
I'll put that at the top.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
In the past, it was off in the other direction.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
It overstated in the last election. The last New York
Times Siena Pol going into election date significantly overstated Joe
Biden's support, including I think they had him winning Wisconsin
by like ten points or something like that. It was
barely Yeah, so who knows, like you have to hold
that possibility out there actually given Democratic Party results, which
(06:02):
have performed polls in a lot of these special elections,
but twelve points in Nevada, that is way outside of
the margin of error. And also soccer, It's not like
these poll numbers are you know, the only ones out.
Speaker 4 (06:16):
They're not a big outlier.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
We've been seeing even at the times when Joe Biden
seemed like he was doing a little better in the
national head to heads, the battleground polls that would come out,
they've always looked terrible. But you know, this is considered
really a like gold standard pole. They invest a lot
of money, there's a lot of credence put into these polls,
especially in Democratic circles, and for it to be this
disastrous is really something.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
What's even more interesting, and of course counter narrative is
where are these gains coming from? So I will read
mister Trump's strength is largely things to gains amongst young
black and Hispanic voters. Actually, Biden's doing pretty damn well
amongst white folks, and even better if you want to
consider suburban ladies. Now, it says here the sense mister
Biden would do little to improve the nation's fortunes has
(07:01):
eroded his standing amongst the young, black, and Hispanic voters,
who have usually represented the foundation of the Democratic Party.
They found that the three groups want fundamental changes to
American society, not just a return to normalcy. Few believe
mister Biden would make even minor changes that would be
good for the country. I can't say that they're wrong
given what we've had for four years. Right now, it
(07:22):
says that amongst eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump
is actually tied with Joe Biden. Amongst young voters and
Hispanic voters, these are groups which previously would vote for
Biden at what sixties almost seventy percent margins. I only
have to go back to twenty sixteen to see Donald
Trump only win some thirty percent of the Latino vote.
I mean, right now he's on track to win fifty
(07:44):
and if you segregate that out and make it just men,
it's probably on track to win.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
A pretty large majority of those votes.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I mean, that's a massive realignment that's happened just in
the last eight years. Now Here, also amongst black voters.
It says that Trump is currently winning about twenty percent
of black voters. That would be the highest level of
Black support for a Republican presidential candidate since the enactment
of the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four. And Gaza,
(08:11):
of course, is one that we can't erase. Inside of this,
we see significant dissatisfaction from President Biden's left on the
issue of Gaza. But Chrystal, I'll let you go on this,
because what you flagged is that Gaza is the only
thing where left voters are really abandoning. It's actually a
lot of very centrist types who are like, I'm done
with this guy, I can't do with it.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Yeah, So I'll read you what at their ride up
and then we can talk about a little bit more.
They say, mister Biden's losses are concentrated among moderate and
conservative Democratic leaning voters who nonetheless think that the system
needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. There's
so many things in there that, in your language, sagas
counter narrative.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
First of all, the fact.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
That these quote unquote centrist voters just want like, don't
mess with the status quot very much. Actually, these voters
are like, man, screw this whole systems doesn't serve anybody
like I hate this, dude. I don't care if you're
threatening you with Trump. It's a radical view of the country,
even from people who are self described as moderate or
conservative Democratic leaning voters. Trump wins just two percent of
(09:13):
mister Biden's very liberal twenty twenty voters who think the
system at least needs maje or changes, compared with sixteen
percent of those who are moditor or conservative. However, so
most of the losses from Biden's twenty twenty coalition are
coming among those more centrist or more conservative Democratic leaning voters. However,
the one exception is on Gaza, where you do have
(09:33):
erosion among Biden's support with young and more progressive voters.
Speaker 4 (09:38):
That's what they say.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
One exception is Israel's war in Gaza, an issue on
which most of mister Biden's challenge appears to come from.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Is left.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Around thirteen percent of the voters who say they voted
for Biden last time but do not plan to do
so again say that his foreign policy or the war
in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote.
Just seventeen percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel
over the Palestinians. So if you take the pool of
voters who say I voted for Biden last time, I'm
(10:04):
not doing it again, thirteen percent of them it's over
his policy Visa vi Gaza, and overwhelmingly it's because they
find him to be too too support of Israel, too
ambivalent to the humanitarian concerns of Palestinians. So just problems
really across the board for Biden and Sacer, you know,
(10:26):
is zooming out because you're right to point out that
much of his erosion, if not all, of his erosion,
comes among the young and among non white voters. You know,
thinking about young people in particular. Not only do you
have obviously Isra's Warren Gaza, which we've talked a lot
about and political impact of that as well. But you know,
the real case that the Democrats make is you got
to vote for us to be a bulwark against Trump.
(10:47):
Trump is going to fix your public life for nearly
a decade now in term of political public life. And
so if you think about people who were coming of
age when Donald Trump was, you know, running his campaign
and assending to the presidency like he doesn't feel abnormal
to them. This has been their adult life. So this
idea of like, oh this is you know, this is
(11:08):
extremely abnormal and we have to do everything we can
to forestall this potential result of Donald Trump is sending
again to the presidency. It just doesn't carry the water
with them that it may with older voters who have
a different conception of what the American president should see
should be like in a much longer you know, personal
history and experience of what that office looks like. Where
(11:29):
Donald Trump still feels like this giant abnormality in American politics,
and so I think that's part of the generational divide
here as well. And then look obviously Biden being old
and enfeebled and the people feeling really bad about the economy,
these are terrible things for him that you know, maybe
he should think about potentially running on an actual plan
(11:49):
to deliver from people on the economy versus what is
clearly not working, which is just saying abortion and Trump
is bad.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Yeah, no, you're right.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I mean literally all you have to do is look
at any of the signs that matter most, and I
think that's the ability to make it. You have huge
problems with wages. They always brag about their unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate doesn't matter when you have millions of people
who've even dropped out of the workforce, underemployed, not making
enough wages to keep up with inflation. I've got it
right here in front of me. Even the front page
(12:16):
of the New York Times this morning is high interest
rates are hitting poorer American's hardest. Yeah, you think, you know,
imagine having to explain that to your New York Times
subscriber audience, like, Wow, I had no idea that it
was so difficult out there that, Oh, it turns out
if you're twenty eight or twenty nine. Great point, which is,
if you're twenty eight or twenty nine, only a couple
of years younger than me and basically.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Your entire adult life.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Donald Trump really became a true political figure with birth rhythm.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
That was twenty eleven.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
That's been more than a decade now, it's thirteen years
of your entire political life that you've known about this guy.
You've seen all the I mean, look as somebody was there,
you know, young and coming up in the business. Seeing
what he did in twenty sixteen, that was crazy. This
time around it just doesn't feel crazy anymore because it's not.
We live through the presidency. I know what it was like.
Wasn't that bad a lot of people for especially when
(13:06):
you compare the economic data, You're like, listen, it was unambiguous.
I definitely was better off under Trump. Now, there's a
lot of factors. But you know, I'm here.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
The Biden administration basically wants to sit there and.
Speaker 2 (13:15):
Let you explain to them why it's not their fault
it's actually Trump's fault and democracy and abortion and all that.
And I won't discount that. I think it is very important.
But the truth is, is it just not landing, And
I don't think it should. Let's put this up there
as well on the screen, because we, of course were
leaving out RFK Junior in some of this analysis. They
also included RFK Junior in the three way or actually
(13:36):
in a five way race. So here's what we have
in Nevada, and this is with RFK Junior, Jill Stein
and all of them who are included. In Nevada, Trump
is up fourteen percent with RFK Junior on the ballot.
In Georgia, Trump is up eight percent with RFK Junior
on the ballot. In Wisconsin, Trump is up, it's up
by one percent. With RFK Junior. Michigan, Biden is only
(13:56):
up by three. Pennsylvania, Trump is up by four. Arizona,
Trump is up by nine. Now keep in mind that
you might be tempted to say, oh, this means that
RFK Junior is taking more away from Trump or from Biden.
It's actually not true. He draws equally according to these
cross tabs, both from Joe Biden and from Donald Trump.
It's just that the lead for Trump gets exacerbated when
(14:18):
you also include Jill Stein in some of these, where
you see both the libertarian candidate and Jill Stein draw
significantly more away from Joe Biden. So it is clear
now too why Joe Biden has been so undemocratic in
the Democratic primary and others, because it is very obvious
that any any third party ballot is just devastating for
(14:39):
him because it gives people options. The less options that
people can have, they're gonna be bad for him. Trump too,
by the way, I mean, even though he is leading
in this, it's not like he isn't winning in these cases.
He's winning only a plurality, not nearly. You know, any
sort of outright majority in any of these states.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Can we put those numbers back up on the screen,
because I just want to emphasize the Nevada numbers, which
are stunning. Okay, look at this Trump forty four, Biden
thirty thirty percent of the vote in a state that
you won pretty handily. It wasn't all that close in
the end. Last time around, RFK Junior pulling eleven percent.
(15:19):
Map said, who's I guess anticipated to be the Libertarian candidate?
Speaker 4 (15:22):
Their convention is what this weekend?
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Something like that in any case pulling two percent and
Jill Stein pulling one percent. Thirty percent of the vote.
Zejilani floated on Twitter, which I think is an interesting
theory that part of why Biden is doing particularly bad
in a place like Nevada is, I mean, for one thing,
you have this younger, more working class, and more diverse
(15:47):
electorate where you know, they're looking at the interest rate phenomenon,
the fact like I'm never going to be able to
afford a house and now am I ever going to
send my kids to college? And young people are looking
like what future do I possibly have? And you know
it's directly downstream of that that you see these huge
gulf emerge in favor of Donald Trump. It's really I mean,
(16:09):
it's really astonishing if these polls are anywhere close to correct,
like it's.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
Something dramatic, dramatic.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
Would really have to change in favor of Joe Biden.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
You know.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
The one other thing that I just want to point
out because it's a particular annoyance for me, is I
saw all kinds of you know, centrist types on Twitter,
like scolding the lad dare you criticized Biden over Israel
and your gosslame the election?
Speaker 4 (16:31):
Blah blah blah.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Just first of all, people have a right to criticize
the president, especially when he's enabling with our tax dollars atrocities.
So just from a moral perspective, that position, to me
is completely bankrupt. But second of all, it's not even
consistent with where the biggest problems are for Joe Biden.
Where's the scolding of the moderates and the centrists in
the conservative leaning Democrats who are fleeing him over a
(16:54):
variety of issues, but I think economic issues in particular,
and just their sense that he's too frick and old
as well. Where's that scolding and freak out and you know,
preparing to blame them and throw them under the bus
for handing the election or being secret Trump supporters or whatever.
So there's a lot in here that really does dispel
some of the media narratives about the contours of this election.
(17:17):
But given how close it was last time around, it
is true that any one piece of this coalition eroding
away from Joe Biden, any one piece, could be fatal
for his reelection chances.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
And when you have multiple piece.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Basically the only people who are really strong with him
and been consistent are like old white people.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, that's pretty much it, right, And.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
So when you have erosion everywhere else, what do you
think the picture is going.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
To look like?
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Absolutely?
Speaker 2 (17:43):
You know, I would be remiss too important about Nevada.
You know, the gas price in Nevada is still four
dollars and forty cents a gallon, and actually it's five
twenty in California. I don't know how you wow out there,
that's crazy, But Nevada, I mean, the economy in Nevada
has always been very, very sensitive not only to gas prices, tourism,
high inflation. That's going to affect people who are coming
(18:03):
in lower overall consumer spending. That's what they're particularly vulnerable to.
So it would make sense to me also that they're
very attuned. Their housing market has also always been crazy,
basically see since two thousand and eight. So all of
that comes back to the actual fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Here you have.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Again we'll play CNN's Harry End and it's just always
amusing to see people in mainstream spaces.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Have to grapple with what's going on. And here's what
he had to say.
Speaker 6 (18:28):
I think it's essentially saying that we have a divide
between the Sumbout and Great Lake battleground states. All Right,
you know, these are all six states that Joe Biden
won last time around. They won by the closest margin
of enery states. He wont look these sumbout battleground states.
Frankly for the Joe Biden campaign. These numbers are an
absolute disaster. The smallest leaders in Arizona for Donald Trump,
He's up six. Look at this nine in Georgia, thirteen
(18:50):
in Nevada. My goodness, gracious, my god, that is a
huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John
Kerry lost it back in two thousand and four. About
these Great Lake battleground states. This is something that the
Joe Biden campaign can work with. Look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump
up three, but that's well within the margin of error. Wisconsin,
donald Trump up one, well within the margin of error.
(19:11):
And actually a Joe Biden lead well within the margin
of error up a point here. This they can work
with the Joe Biden campaign. This the Donald campaign. Donald
Trump campaign absolutely loves and it looks like a lot
of the other polling out of the Sunbelt battle and
the Trump coalition is changing. That's basically what's cooking here.
This is at least one of the big reasons why
so this is among likely voters in these in all
(19:32):
these battleground states we just spoke about. Back in twenty twenty,
eighty four percent of the Trump campaigns, the Trump coalition
was white. Look where it is now, it's seventy eight percent.
The non white portion of the Trump coalition. It was
thirteen percent in twenty twenty. Look at this now it's
nineteen percent.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
I mean, he's laying out exactly and it's just the
stunning nature that comes to him is amazing. You also,
we have some of the quotes just from people it's
always good to hear actual anecdotal Why exactly I am
the way I am right now, let's put this up
there on the screen. This is, for example, somebody who's
voting split ticket and Brian Dickinson. He's a twenty five
year old registered Democrat. He says, Jackie Rosen has been
(20:15):
around a long time. He said he was considering splitting
his ticket and voting for Trump. I think she's a
very good Democrat. Let's go to the next one.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I love people now.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
This guy, Terry Crabtree. He is a disabled, fifty two
year old from Maricopa County. He says, I'm not a
party person. I am more for the state, and Diego
has done a good job for the state.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
I cannot democrat Bay.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
He's a Democrat, and he says I cannot stand Biden.
I think he ought to be in prison. I think
Trump should be in prison as well. I hate being
given those two choices.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
Relatable sentiment.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
Next one, this is Joseph Gonzalez. He is a sixty
year old Hispanic truck driver in Milwaukee. This is of
Tammy Baldwin. He says, I think I like what she's
basically doing. But on Biden, he says, I do not
like what Biden is doing. He's failing for the United
States one please. And what you see in all of
these is that you basically have a lot of people
who are willing to split tickets. Because what we didn't
(21:08):
show you is that in the same poll that had
Trump winning every single swing state, the Democrats are up
in every Senate state. Bob Casey beating Dave McCormick. You
have Jackie Rosen, She's up over her opponent in Nevada.
I mean, you actually have a case where, I.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Mean, this would be nuts.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
So let's say this is correct, where Trump would win
not only the popular vote with the electoral college, but
the Democrats would actually be actually win every single contested
election and keep the US Senate.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
That's totally within the possibility with.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Am absolutely is and I think it's another.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
So the Democratic cope, which is with some basis right,
is that Okay, yeah, we've been seeing these poles that
are bad for a while, including before the midterms when
we outperformed. Let's not forget that. But you know, when
it comes to voters actually going to the polls, they
are backing Democrats, and the polls are understating Democratic support go,
we don't buy these polls. There's just an Axios piece
(22:02):
this morning about how the Biden team genuinely doesn't believe
the polls. They think it's all well and good. They
think they're perfectly fine, and that is the basis for
their reasoning. Well, what you see in these polls is
that no, no, no. The fact that we're voting for
Democrats at the state level, for Congress, even for Senate,
that has nothing to do with Joe Biden. Joe Biden
(22:24):
is a different matter altogether, and there's a different sentiment
when it comes to him. And so that's why it's
so interesting to hear these swing state voters who are saying, no, Actually,
I like Ruben Gag, I like Jackie Rose. I think
she's a good Democrat. I think she's doing good job.
Tam Baldwin, I'm good with these sort of like more
generic Democrats, but I have a specific negative sentiment about
(22:46):
Joe Biden. And so at least according to these polls,
you could see some remarkable levels of ticket splitting that
we haven't seen in years. I mean, the whole trend
has been in the opposite direction, where people are party
line voters, and it's all tribal, and it's all just
divided by what your party affiliation is, and so there's
very little splitting of the ticket between you know, presidential
(23:07):
Canada Senate candidate or on down the line. These poles say, no,
Joe Biden is performing uniquely badly among all voters. And
so you could very well see, if again these polls
are accurate, a situation where the rest of the Democratic
Party ticket does great. The ballot initiative, abortion ballot initiatives
(23:27):
for you know, on the pro choice side do fantastic.
The congressional people running for Congress, for the House, for
the Senate, etc. Do great on the Democratic side, and
Joe Biden gets his butt handed to him. That is
a real scenario that is on the table right now.
I just want to go back and make one comment
about the Harry Enton analysis there where he had you know,
the sun Belt States versus the what used to be
(23:49):
called the blue Wall States piled you know, industrial Midwest,
and it's very clear why Biden is kind of hanging
in there in the Blue Wall States versus getting obliterated
in the sun Belt States, which he won last time
with much fanfare. And this was the new Democratic Coalition,
et cetera, et cetera. It's because those Sun Belt states
(24:09):
are younger and more diverse, and the industrial Midwestern states
have more older white people, and that's who Joe Biden
is continuing to.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Do well with. So that's why you see that divide.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
And I think that Harry Enton is right to say, listen,
if you're going to make a stand and you're going
to try to eke out your narrow path to two seventy,
the place to really place your bets is, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Pennsylvania versus Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (24:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
No, I think you're absolutely right. And look, let's not
erase it's still you know, it's only May. There're several
months ago. Abortion has scrambled everything. Recent evidence suggests that
we should not undercount Democratic support. Further, recent evidence says
we should not underestimate Trump support in all of these
So we genuinely have no idea. But just to underscore
(24:56):
how big of a problem this is, let's put this
up there on the screen.
Speaker 3 (24:59):
This is what the elector College would look like if
there were no toss ups.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
According to the RCP, polling average, Joe Biden would win
two hundred and twenty six electoral votes. Trump would win
a stunning three hundred and twelve. I mean, we have
not actually seen an electoral college victory like that in
a long time in this country, so that would certainly
be something to wake up on. Whatever in what is
it November fifth, twenty twenty four, Please don't prosecute me
(25:24):
for election missing.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
I'm just speculating.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
I'm not putting it out there, but let's put the
next one there up on the screen. This is also
important to highlight because this is from an anonymous Twitter account.
You miss voted a great guy, by the way he says,
or know who it is. We are back to twenty sixteen.
People want to tear down the system entirely or want
major changes. This highlights what you said. Most Americans think
(25:47):
that the system needs to change. The system needs to
be torn down entirely fourteen percent, Major changes fifty five percent,
no change twenty seven percent. And I think really what
you see too, is with Trump support about who they
think is going to bring more change.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
This has always been Trump's fundamental strength.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Twenty five percent of people think it's going to tear
down the system entirely, and a major forty five percent
of people think he will bring major changes. Trump was
the chaos, shake things up candidate, and this gets right
as he aptletely correct. Twenty sixteen is the correct metaphor
because twenty sixteen was a status quo or a change election.
Twenty twenty was kind of It was a change election,
(26:25):
but I guess change away from the chaos, and this
kind of validates a theory of politics that basically posts
nineteen ninety six. Every election, almost for the last twenty
something years has been a quote unquote change election. It's
just that who and what we think of change in
that time is what really motivates people to come to
the ballot box. This is a totally different switch from
(26:48):
the early center. I'm reading a book right now called
crand Expectations, which is all about the United States from
nineteen forty five to nineteen seventy two.
Speaker 3 (26:55):
It is fascinating for me to.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Think and put my head in a space where Americans
not only had faith, but a deep love and affection
for the institutions and for the status quo. We don't
live in that time anymore. It is we're really living
through nineteen thirties again or in nineteen twenties, like complete
just dissatisfaction, chaos, not just from protests and others. We
had a brief period in the nineteen sixties, but this
(27:20):
is a sustained period of people wanting change now for
so long that it is it is very reminiscent of
a very long time ago in American history.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Yeah, this theory of recent politics is that you have
this yo yo effect between almost even like presidential personality.
So you have you know, George W. Bush, who presents
us this sort of like sider you know, yeah, low
iq relative, you know, plain spoken whatever, and then the
backlash to that brings you Obama, the professorial error diite
like you know, incredibly rhetorically gifted, et cetera, et cetera.
(27:54):
Then from Obama you go to you know, the populist
rabble rouser at least that's his affect, Donald try tr so,
you know, told, whereas Obama is this picture of sort
of like civilized sophistication, Trump is this you know, rude,
crude reality TV star. Then you go to Biden. So
(28:14):
from the chaos of Trump, then it's like, ah, can
we just have things be like a little bit normal
and like not crazy every single friking day. Joe Biden
the picture of like boring standard normalcy in Washington, d C. That, especially,
you know, coming as he did among like COVID and
the chaos that was going on there and the incredible
(28:36):
dissatisfaction with you know, the state of affairs during COVID,
he's able to come in. And then what these polls
point to and why they're significant, is the landscape's really
different from twenty twenty, right, And by the way, you know,
the sense of like normalcy and the back to brunch
pitch it.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
Didn't really work out. Still a lot of chaos.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
World still feels incredibly unsettled, maybe more so than ever.
So what is the Biden pitch this time? Like, what
is he really selling other than just I'm not Trump
and you know, abortion, that's it. So according to these polls,
that's not going to be sufficient for a group of
voters that overwhelmingly are like, now, we got to do
(29:15):
some things that are really different at this point because
this direction we're going on is an absolute disaster. And
you know, if you're thinking about who's going to overturn
the apple cart it's not Joe Biden, it's Donald Trump.
And I think you know, plenty would argue like, Okay,
we'll change for change sake is not good and chaos
is not, you know, just inherently a good thing. But
if you look at the number of people who say
(29:37):
we want major change or to tear the whole system down,
those people are overwhelmingly going for Trump, and they make
up the bulk of American voters at this point. So
in some ways I think that that those numbers are
almost the most insightful into what the political climate is
right now and why it is really not a political
climate that is conducive to the re election of Joseph Robinette.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
Biden well said, you don't have to take it from
us here.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
You've got Joe Biden's favorite political commentator, which is always
very difficult for me to say. Farid with Zakaria over
at CNN on Saturday giving a monologue that Biden almost
certainly saw, in which he sounds a very dire warning.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
Let's take a listen.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
None of this is playing out as I thought it would.
Trump is now leading in almost all the swing states,
But behind those numbers lie even more troubling details. As
someone worried about the prospects of a second Trump term,
I think it's best to be honest about reality. I
understand that polls are not always accurate, but in general
(30:41):
they have tended to underestimate Donald Trump's support, not overestimated.
I doubt that there are many shy Biden voters in
the country. Perhaps the most worrying new trend for the
Democrats is that far from being the more unified party,
they are now bitterly divided over the Warren Gazo. Bernie
Sanders has said the eruption of pro Palestinian protests could
(31:03):
be Biden's Vietnam, and even invoked the specter of Lyndon
Johnson choosing not to run for re election in nineteen
sixty eight, because with the opposition to that war, the
analogy is far fetched. America then was itself sending hundreds
of thousands of troops to Vietnam, with more being recruited
from college campuses every week. But there's no denying that
(31:27):
the party seems more openly divided than it has been
in decades. Only thirty three percent of Americans said they
approved of Biden's handling of the Israel Hamas War, which
is now opposed both by people who think he is
too soft and people who think he is too hard
on Israel. Meanwhile, Republicans seem to be uniting behind Trump.
(31:49):
Whatever opposition he faced in the primaries has largely melted away.
The one that troubles me the most is on the
question of who was the more competent. Joe Biden led
Donald Trump by nine points in twenty twenty, but Trump
now leads by sixteen points in January twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Look, can't really dispute a single word of what he says.
We also have an interesting interview with Charlemagne, the God.
Speaker 3 (32:15):
Who did for The New York Times, interestingly.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
Enough, which perhaps represents some of the sentiment that we
saw the bleeding way of black voters for Joe Biden.
This is for what he had to say about why
he won't be endorsing Biden again.
Speaker 8 (32:28):
I'm not endorsedon because I just feel like I've been
burned with that before. You know, because you put your
name on the line, you endorse somebody, You tell your
audience this is who you should go out there and
vote for, and your audience goes and does it. And
then when they don't see these things that they thought
were going to get pushed through, they don't understand civics.
Speaker 3 (32:45):
They're not thinking about that.
Speaker 8 (32:47):
They're like, all they know is Charlemagne told me to
vote for this person because this was going to happen,
and this didn't happen. I think they said the numbers
like twenty two percent. I don't think that twenty two
percent of black people are going vote for Donald Trump.
I think the biggest thing that people are going to
have to fight against this year is the couch. And
that's what I've been saying. I keep saying it over
and over, like this election is three options. Republicans who
(33:10):
are to crooks, Democrats who would have couch because they
don't fight enough for nothing in the couch, and the
couch is voter apathy.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Crooks versus the cowards versus the couch. That's what pres due,
to be honest.
Speaker 3 (33:20):
With you, He's right.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
I mean, look, we've had the problem is is that
I actually think a low turnout election plays out in
Biden's favor because it just means that the people who
love to vote and who vote in every election, boomers
and white suburban ladies, those are the people who are
going to vote for Biden. Whereas I think, as we
showed back in twenty twenty, high turnout election generally meet.
In twenty sixteen two twenty sixteen, millions of people who had.
Speaker 3 (33:44):
Not voted as the nineteen eighties came out and voted
for Trump.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
It's part of the reason when the polls were so off,
they've not only came back to the polls, they brought
even more people who had never voted before in twenty twenty.
If we have a lower turnout election, lest it was
a forties or fifty percent this time around as opposed
to two thirds last time, I think it plays out
in Joe Biden's favor.
Speaker 3 (34:02):
But look, you never know, right, Yeah, there's a lot
of confounding.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Stuff, and Charlamagne doesn't bring up any specific issues there,
but I know in the past he's talked about, you know,
great disappointment over the promises that were made over voting
rights in particular, and then there's just you know, they
said that during the election because they wanted to make
sure that black voters turn out to the poll and
signal that you know, we're on your side, et cetera.
And then to his point about them being cowards not
(34:27):
just on this issue, but on any number of.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Issues that you could take a look at. Let me
get there.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
There's just nothing but excuses for why we can't do this.
We can't do that. Sorry, we tried, We want to,
but we're with you, but we just it's just too hard.
Except when it comes to funding worse then you know,
then it happens. Then the bipartisan magic comes together and
whatever needs to pass comes to pass. So you know,
you can't blame him for feeling like I was made
a set of promises I used, I trusted that I
(34:52):
made a set of promises and effect to my audience
saying like, I think this is the person who can
deliver these things that you're interested in, and I'm just
not going to put myself in that position. Again, you
really can't blame them. Just quickly going back to Free
Zakaria and his commentary about the Israel's assault on Gaza,
there were some interesting numbers in this poll as well.
They asked the question about who do you sympathize more
(35:13):
with the Israelis or the Palestinians. Democrats Now a plurality
sympathized with the Palestinians, which is an extraordinary shift from
previous years. Up to this point, you have thirty five
percent who say they sympathize with the Palestinians, over twenty
four percent who say they sympathize with the Israelis. The
remainders say don't know or both equally. Republicans very one sided.
(35:37):
It's seventy two percent sympathize more with Israel, six percent
to sympathize more with the Palestinians. And the other thing
is huge h divide, which won't surprise you, guys if
you've been watching this coverage eighteen to twenty nine, you
got forty seven percent who say we sympathize more with
the Palestine, so very close to a majority. Owned twenty
three percent say they're with the Israelis sixty five plus
(36:00):
opposite majority. Fifty five percent were with Israel, only fourteen
percent were with the Palestinians.
Speaker 4 (36:06):
So you see.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
Huge both partisan and generational divides in terms of how
they're viewing this conflict. And to Frei Zakaria's accurate point,
this has really Joe Biden's policy here is not popular
with the Democratic base and has really divided the Democratic
(36:27):
coalition and created not just apathy but utter disgust among
some certain portion of that Democratic base.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
So you know, these are.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
When you look at who's fleeing the Biden camp. As
we said before, most of those people are actually more
on the moderate to conservative side. But of the lefties
and progressives who voted for him in twenty twenty and
who have left the Biden camp, it is overwhelmingly over
this one issue.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
Yeah, it's Look, he's got coalitional problems all over the map.
He can't really afford any of them, not really inspiring
or speaking to the wants and the needs of concerns
of any and so you get basically a total collapse.
Speaker 3 (37:06):
I mean more and more.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
This just looks a lot like Jimmy Carter that I've
said previously. His only saving grace is some sort of
hidden abortion you know phenomenon, which is a hell of
a thing to you know, to bet your entire political
future on. That's stunning. But that's that is the choice
that he has decided to make. Yah, It's the most
apathetic choice you could possibly make. But it makes sense
(37:27):
for what some an eighty two year old man who
would be if he were to be reelected.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
Yeah, they're they're opting for just running on abortion and
Trump is bad, and really avoiding campaigning anywhere where they
can see this descent, including as we covered yesterday, very
possibly moving the entire DNC online to avoid recriminations from
their own voter base. I just listen for people who
(37:52):
are a little younger. I don't know if you could understand,
like Obama was the candidate of like the College. The
whole idea was these younger generations are going to be
firmly in the Democratic camp, like it's done as they
come of age. Republicans are totally screwed. There were books
that were I think it was what James Carvell wrote
this book forty more years based on this concept of
(38:15):
you know, these young people are growing up and there'll
be a bulk of a voting population and then it's
over for the Republicans. So the idea that a Democratic
president cannot even go to a college campus disaster, utter
and complete disaster. All right on the other side of
a ledger, we have one Donald Trump who's spending his
(38:36):
week in a Manhattan courtroom, and as I teased earlier,
the prosecution had their star witness on the stand yesterday.
That would be former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who was
at the center of these quote unquote hush money payments.
You know, he was the one who interfaced with them
and facilitated them.
Speaker 4 (38:57):
He actually actually he had a mo I forgot this.
He mortgaged his house to be.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Able to make the payment, and then Trump pays him back.
Speaker 6 (39:03):
You know.
Speaker 1 (39:04):
The legal question here is were those payments properly recorded
and should they have been logged instead as a campaign
finance expenditure. And the key legal question there is whether
they were exclusively to benefit the campaign or whether there
were other reasons along with it could also have a
campaign benefit, But were there other reasons for making these payments?
(39:26):
For example, wanting your wanting to avoid your wife finding
out about your affair with a porn star. Alleged affair
with a porn star. He still denies it. Okay, let's
put this up on the screen. In terms of what
Michael Cohen had to say, he says Trump was primarily
concerned about presidential election when he sought to bury Stormy
Daniel's testimony. He says that Cohen testified after he told
(39:49):
Trump Daniels claims might resurface that fall. Trump grew angry
with him, told him to quote, just take care of it.
He said to me, this is a disaster, total disaster.
Women are going to hate This is really a disaster.
Speaker 4 (40:01):
Women will hate me.
Speaker 1 (40:02):
Guys may think it's cool, but this is going to
be a disaster for the campaign. At the time, Cohen explained,
mister Trump was pulling very, very low with women. He
was pulling very poorly with women, and this coupled with
the previous Access Hollywood tape. So that's an important piece
of context. Here is this Stormy Daniels you know story
potentially coming out happened in the wake of Access Hollywood
(40:24):
when there was real concern about it, how women voters
were going to view them and whether they, you know,
would totally take his campaign. When Cohen asked how Stormy
Daniels claims might impact Trump's relationship with Milania, Trump told him, quote,
don't worry, He goes, how long do you think I'll
be on the market for?
Speaker 4 (40:40):
Not long?
Speaker 1 (40:40):
Cohen recounted, So basically the implication they're like, if Millennia
leaves me, like, I'm not going to be on the
market for long. Some woman is going to snatch me
up right away. It's not going to be any issue
she divorces me, is you know, allegedly allegedly what I
have been here? And Cohen concludes he wasn't thinking about millenia.
This was all about the campaign. So that's his side
of the story. The defense is going to talk and
(41:04):
already has talked a lot about you know, Michael Cohen
is a convicted felin for it wasn't convicted for lying liar,
So that's a challenge. And you also have listen. There
was a tape that Cohen has that relates to Susan
McDougall's she used the other Karen mccaron McDougal.
Speaker 4 (41:24):
I always get that wrong.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
I don't want to call her Susan, but anyway, sorry
Karen Karen mc Karen McDougall, and the payments that he
facilitated with David Packer in National Choir or whatever. But
he doesn't have any direct documentation of these conversations. And
these conversations are really really critical because they do get
at that question of whether this was directly a campaign
(41:46):
expenditure or whether it had to do with the campaign,
but also with I want to hide this from my wife,
So it becomes kind of a he said, he said,
and who the jury believes wants to believe, et cetera.
So in any case, this is you know, this was
this case from the prosecution was really building to this
moment with Michael Cohen, and this is the story.
Speaker 4 (42:08):
He had to say.
Speaker 2 (42:09):
That's right, and right ahead of the testimony, Crystal Trump
had this to say.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
This help comes from Biden in the White House.
Speaker 7 (42:14):
By the way, and they have the top equal here
because he can't when he can't win two sentences together.
Speaker 9 (42:21):
He's the worst president in the history of our country.
Speaker 7 (42:24):
Can't speak, can't walk off a helicopter, can't walk off
a play, can't walk off a sage.
Speaker 9 (42:32):
And the only way they think they can win is that.
Speaker 5 (42:34):
They can do something with trub because we have.
Speaker 7 (42:37):
An incompetent, the worst president in the history of the
United States.
Speaker 2 (42:41):
Trump has been really enjoying doing these press conferences in
the trial. He seems to think that it makes him
look strong. I actually think, though, the more that we
continue to look at a lot of the polling, Crystal
that if anything, it's either a.
Speaker 3 (42:52):
Distraction or as long as Biden is.
Speaker 2 (42:56):
At the center of attention, and people are feeling macroeconomic conditions,
not thinking about Trump in general. Most people don't give
a shit about his political about his court appearances or whatever.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
If he's convicted, maybe, you know, it be another story.
Speaker 2 (43:08):
But the more consequential legal cases, the ones that people
really care about, trial is not likely to happen before
the election. The Trump people seem to think is a
net good for him.
Speaker 3 (43:16):
I don't. I'm not going to go that far.
Speaker 2 (43:18):
I don't think it's a good thing to be on
trial or to have people talk about affairs or even
the thing is with Michael Cohen too. With Michael Cohen,
the only reason he turned on Trump is because Trump
refused to pay him. Trump didn't want to continue to
pay his legal expenses. That was it. It was that
petty of a manner. And after that he flips on him.
He starts pleading guilty, cooperating as a federal witness, and
(43:39):
now you know, turning and embracing like the diaper Don
conspiracy and all this other stuff.
Speaker 4 (43:45):
But what doesn't besmirch the diaper Don considracy.
Speaker 2 (43:49):
But what's important to remember is that up until twenty eighteen,
whenever he flipped, he was the most ardent Trump defender.
Speaker 3 (43:56):
It was on television. I used to deal with him.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
I was a White House course, But I want to
see this idio walking around the White House grounds consultly.
Speaker 3 (44:02):
Mister Trump is the greatest businessman of all time.
Speaker 2 (44:05):
These are just you know, the classic hangar honors of politics,
of people who surround the super rich and the wealthy.
So it's very difficult to take him as a serious person,
especially with so many of his utterances.
Speaker 1 (44:18):
It's actually, it's actually interesting. He talks some about how
much he loved and worshiped.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Yeah, Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (44:25):
I've he talked some about that in this courtroom appearance,
and how his fondest wish and desire was just to
make Trump happy. And if he did something that was
good and Trump praised him, man, that.
Speaker 4 (44:38):
Just lit up his whole life.
Speaker 1 (44:39):
Which is how you end up, I guess, taking the
mortgage out on your house in order to pay a
billionaire's hush money payments. And then yeah, he's like, he's
sort of like the jilted lover. You know, Trump refuses
to back him after all of his loyalty and won't
pay his legal bills and whatever. And now it's a
it's a total one to eighty in terms of his
views of Donald Trump, and you know, becoming this star
(45:00):
witness for the prosecution. It is a wild situation given
that of all the cases that are out there, many
with much more serious allegation, all of the other ones
with much more serious allegations than this one, this is it.
I mean the other ones, it's there. They're not happening
before election day. Now that doesn't mean that they're over.
(45:20):
If Trump loses, He's still an incredible legal jeopardy from
all of those cases. So it's not like they're dead dead,
but in terms of electoral concern, for all intents and purposes,
they are. This is the This is the whole ball game.
One other thing to note about the thought that we
showed you of Trump, you had behind him a number
(45:41):
of Republican officials, including Senators Tommy Teverville and Jade Vance
and Congresswoman Nicole mally Takis.
Speaker 4 (45:47):
Is that her name?
Speaker 3 (45:47):
Yes? Okay?
Speaker 1 (45:49):
In any case, you've now got like the new way
to kiss the Trump ring is to show up and
be there at the courtroom with him and give your
own little press conference about what a which hunted is
blah blah, blah, and JD obviously is like, you know,
trying to position himself to hopefully be the Trump VP pick.
Kind of doubtful that he'll get the nod, but you
never know. So he was he, you know, was making
(46:11):
his moves to get into the Trump's best possible graces.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
That's right, JD was there. Vivike Ramaswami will be there today.
Oh for real, Yes, Vecas on site as we speak.
Speaker 3 (46:23):
Courthouse. Oh, here we go, okay, here, I have a
full list.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
Like an exclusively not exclusively everybody speaker. Mike Johnson will
be there. Doug Burgham will be big Doug representative, Byron Donalds,
vivike Ramaswami and Corey Mills. So Byron actually one of
the Byron and Doug Bergham the only two people on
that list who are prospective VP candidates.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
I wouldn't put too much stock in either of them.
Speaker 4 (46:47):
A lot of Doug Burgham chatter right now.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
That's what they say.
Speaker 2 (46:50):
I firmly believe that I think the best odds are
a woman. I think Trump e last dephonic. You can
you know I've been saying it here from I think
he loves her, he loves how spirited here defense is
I think she's also not a big enough star that
she would ever eclipse him, so I would put my
money on her. I also think that the race card
is one that Trump just loves a bit too much.
(47:11):
Tim Scott, you know very clear, Tim has been all
over cable TV kissing Trump's ass as well. Only if
Trump feels totally electorally secure, I think will he pick
somebody like Doug Burgham or jd Vance. But that's one
where you know, given the nature of the election, it
would be very difficult. Now it's certainly possible. Like, don't
get me wrong, but he loved that man. I loves
(47:31):
identy politics and he loves a media narrative more than anything,
and a woman or a black person is just one
that he couldn't get away from.
Speaker 1 (47:37):
I mean, how did he make his pick last time around?
He did it based on very naked monkey Vellyan political calculation.
Speaker 3 (47:44):
Yeah, and he was right, and he was right.
Speaker 1 (47:45):
I mean it was Mike Pence was a good choice
for him in that moment. It was a very wise
political choice, and I think he will make a very
similar choice this time around, because he has a lot
more to lose this time than he did last time.
I mean, his freedom is really at stake hinged on
the results of this election. So whatever he can be
(48:06):
persuaded of in terms of it's the best electoral calculus
for him. I think that's the direction he's likely to
go on based on his history and also what is
really at stake for him. Last saying just about the
Cohen testimony, I mentioned this before. CNN actually had this
audio a number of years ago, but Cohen recorded this
(48:26):
one conversation with Trump with in regards to these Karen
McDougall payments. Now this one the structures a little different.
National Inquirer bought her story to. It was the whole
catch and kill scenario, and Cohen was worried that David Packer,
who's head of the National Inquirer, wouldn't believe him that
Trump was going to reimburse him for these payments that
(48:49):
he was going to make. So he surreptitiously recorded the
conversation with Trump to play for David Packer to look,
he's serious about this, He's going to repay you. I
don't think he actually ever did, but in any case,
that was the purpose of the recording. So let's take
a listen to this audio which was played in court.
Speaker 9 (49:07):
I need to open up a company for the transfer
of all of that info regarding our friend David, you know,
so that I'm going to do that right away. I've
actually come up and spoke to me and I've spoken
to Alan Weiseelberg about how to set the whole thing
up with so whatere we were funding. Yes, and it's
(49:30):
all the stuff, all the stuff because you know, you
never know where that company, you never know where he's
going to be, It's correct. So I'm all over that,
and I spoke to Alan about it. When it comes
time to the financing, which will be listening, answer you
will have to pay you, I'll no, no, no, no,
no no, I got no no.
Speaker 1 (49:49):
So there you go. That's, you know, clearly talking about
David Backer. He's talking about how we Weiselberg setting up
these payments, et cetera, et cetera. That's the one piece
of audio evidence that they have that was able to
bolster his testimony to the jury.
Speaker 4 (50:02):
And yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (50:03):
Which way this case is going to go. I could
really see either direction. I think it just depends a
lot on who this jury is and how they're processing
these various claims.
Speaker 3 (50:12):
No, I think you're right. It's all going to come
down to a level of reasonable doubt. I do.
Speaker 2 (50:16):
And this is the problem with the prosecution's case from
the very beginning. The plausibility of I just didn't want
my wife to find out is enough and believable that
you only need a single person who is there not
only to buy the reasonable doubt, but also not to
co sign the prosecution's extraordinary interpretation of New York finance
business accounting law. Remember that's what's actually at stake here.
(50:38):
So anyways, we will see what's happened. Let's get to
game Stop. So major breaking news. Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill,
the man behind the original meme stop craze on game stock,
is officially back. Let's go and put this up there
on the screen. Roaring Kitty Keith gil tweeting for the
(50:59):
very first time I'm in three years on his account,
which then immediately sparks a seventy four percent increase in
a single day on game stop stock. On top of that,
AMC another so called meme stock is up over one
hundred percent. They say that game Stop shares actually had
(51:20):
to be halted several times on the trading exchange because
of how high it was going, and ever and continues
actually to do so. Now Gil it appears, has not
yet done a video on YouTube. We're all awaiting that.
He recently was portrayed in the movie Dumb Money. Not
a particularly great movie, but it's if you're on an airplane,
you should watch it.
Speaker 3 (51:39):
That's the way I would put it.
Speaker 2 (51:40):
Dumb Money recently came out and kind of showed him
as this endearing nerd, you know, in his basement who
turned you know, what was it like, fifty thousand dollars
into forty eight million dollars on paper. Eventually sells, gets out,
subject of lawsuits, of congressional testimony. Most people thought they
would never see him again, but for some reason he
(52:00):
is officially back and back enough that it's always just
amusing watching CNBC and all these business anchors actually grapple
with this. So here's how they handle the news of
the return of Rooring Kitty.
Speaker 5 (52:13):
Yeah, so this is Keith Gill's first online post we've
seen in three years. Roaring Kitty, as he's also known,
was if you remember really the pied Piper of the
Memestock frenzy. In twenty twenty one, he led those online
traders to the infamous Game Stop short squeeze this morning,
posting kind of cryptic photo of somebody just leaning forward,
excuse me, in a chair, and that was enough to
(52:34):
send game Stop up. As you said, more than one
hundred percent. It has been halted for volagility. A Robert
Hu'm just sent out a note explaining this trading activity
for GM has been only ten minutes. The rest of
the day has been halted, and even with just ten
minutes of trading, the stock did three and a half
times the normal volume. But it's not just GM me guys.
(52:55):
Other so called memestocks like AMC are also catching a bit.
It is one sign of overall appetite increasing. You'll also
see that showing up in the options market, especially for
the most volatile corner of that ultra short maturities, once
really reserved for professional traders zero days to expire options
have climbed in popularity among every day investors. These are
(53:15):
one day bets on the direction of the market, which
can offer outsize returns rewards and also outsize risk.
Speaker 2 (53:21):
So you just got to love to see the translation
of risk appetite. There ain't no risk appetite. Okay, everyone's
just logging back into their robin Hood accounts and they're
having fun, which was the entire point of the game
stop craze. But I mean, look, I guess it just
does show the power is still there, Crystal, if you
want it to be.
Speaker 3 (53:37):
For the Internet.
Speaker 2 (53:37):
It was such a fun story at the time, the
short squeeze getting the big investors getting screwed inspired the
movie made Ken Griffin became a household name. There is
still some h really shady stuff that went on with
robin Hood.
Speaker 4 (53:51):
All of that.
Speaker 3 (53:51):
I think it was very.
Speaker 2 (53:52):
Illuminating episode for everyone because you're like, oh man, the
system really is rigged.
Speaker 1 (53:56):
Absolutely, those are the pieces of it that made the
story so compelling and so like illustrative of the realities
of our economy. So first of all, let's just reflect
on the power of this one random dude who can
post a meme and move markets to this extent, Like
that's incredible, and especially because listen, we're used to like
(54:16):
you know, the Fed or like Titans of Wall Street
being able to do this, our Elon Musk, you know,
a billionaire being able to do the same but here
you have this guy who just through the force of
his like persistence, basically was able to persuade people like,
we're doing this, You're coming along, screw what they say,
We're all in, We're going to make this happen.
Speaker 4 (54:37):
We're going to screw the shorts.
Speaker 1 (54:39):
And you know, through just basically like his force and
persistence being able to move markets in this way. And
there's a few things that I always found really interesting
about the story. First of all, it really revealed something
that I think a lot of people intuitively know, which
is how fake the stock market is to begin with.
So the fact that you could have this on line
(55:00):
movement and really you know, take it to big Wall
Street players in a significant way, that was interesting and,
as I said.
Speaker 4 (55:08):
Sort of revealed how fake a lot of.
Speaker 1 (55:10):
This Wall Street shenanigans really are in stock market prices,
et cetera. But then you also had the other side
of it, which was listen, right when they're on the
verge of a real victory, the collusion that occurred, and
the you know, top down crushing of this movement, and
you know, they they made it so that on the
(55:30):
robin Hood platform you can no longer buy the stock,
you could only sell the stock, and that effectively, at
least for the time, really, you know, crushed the movement
and ended it. So it was this Dave and Goliath story.
David looked like he had the upper hand and then
Goliath comes in and then you know, we'reing. Kitty himself
as you were poorting to soccer, became the subject of all.
I mean, he was really aggressively. They dragged him in
(55:53):
front of Congress and lost. I mean, they went after
him like crazy. You would think he was the you know,
a villain of the central et cetera for his promotion
of the game stop stocks. So interesting to see he's
still got it apparently.
Speaker 3 (56:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (56:07):
I mean, his employer, mass Mutual was actually fine, like
four million dollars because he was working for them and
doing this stuff. On this side, he was a shit poster.
It's not even really fair, to be honest. I mean,
let's be real, like it's an amazing feat. He leveraged
his Internet personality. His YouTube videos and Reddit posts turned
fifty thousand dollars into some fifties. Nobody really knows how
(56:30):
much of a profit, but tens of millions and millions
of millions of dollars for him and for his family.
Speaker 3 (56:35):
I mean, that's that's the American dream.
Speaker 2 (56:37):
To me, somebody like that, that's the best of online influencer.
And he did it specifically by going after and beating
these hedge fund managers, who, as the movie accurately portrays,
are just the most like just the most the worst
people in the US. They create nothing, they do nothing,
made tens of billions of dollars betting and defeating and
(56:57):
trying to destroy companies. I mean, Ken griff entire innovation
is high frequency trading and basically getting an edge by
trading something three microseconds ahead of somebody else. Sorry, I
don't think you're adding all that much, you know, to
a value to the United States. But this man is
worth what thirty forty billion dollars, one of the richest
men in the United States. That's exactly why Gil became
(57:19):
such a popular figure in his own right. And every
time something like this happens, it does show you Again,
let's get to the communitarian aspect of what happened back
in twenty twenty one is where we just come out
of COVID. I'm sure you remember this too, Crystal. This
was right after January sixth, so things were tense. I
remember covering this and just being like, man, this is
the first fun story I've covered in years. It was
(57:41):
just it was great to just get wrapped up on it.
Speaker 3 (57:43):
Now.
Speaker 2 (57:44):
Not great for a lot of people out there. And
let's be honest, you did lose a lot of money,
but you know you're an adult. You know you should
at least know what you're doing. And by Keith's own admission,
you never told anybody to buy the stock per se.
Let's put this up there on the screen just to reiterate,
this is literally the meme that made it all happen.
Appears to show a guy who is gaming leaning forward.
He has since tweeted out like twenty five different of
(58:06):
his signature memes, which are like clips from movies and
other things inspirational. Wolverine coming out of the tank and
killing somebody, So maybe he's back. I would really love
to see him actually do a YouTube video. We have
one of those, we can put here on this green.
So here you've got Wolverine in the tank coming out,
you're seeing the god.
Speaker 3 (58:26):
What is the metal?
Speaker 4 (58:27):
The metal? I don't remember either.
Speaker 3 (58:28):
Totally blanking on the name right now, Griffin.
Speaker 4 (58:31):
You want to tell about the Wolverine origin story basically,
right or is that?
Speaker 3 (58:36):
I think that one's from Logan.
Speaker 4 (58:37):
No, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (58:38):
I think that was an accident because I never watched
Logan and I definitely have seen that.
Speaker 4 (58:42):
Got it.
Speaker 3 (58:42):
Uh, Okay, that was X two.
Speaker 4 (58:45):
Yeah, that makes sense, that makes sense. I actually loved
those movies.
Speaker 2 (58:47):
The X Men movies were gat yeah, big mag Anyways,
I think they're coming back actually, or there's some fusion
of the universe with Deadpool. That's X Men origins Wolverine.
That's according to our junior guy in the control room thing.
Speaker 8 (58:59):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (59:00):
We appreciate you, Ian.
Speaker 2 (59:02):
So it's one of those where the memes are back,
the stocks are back.
Speaker 3 (59:05):
This will be a fun story.
Speaker 2 (59:06):
Hopefully, maybe this time around they can crush somebody else
Wall Street Person's dreams.
Speaker 3 (59:11):
But we'll see.
Speaker 2 (59:11):
And we want to give everybody an update and get
some of the fun stuff into the show as well.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.