How Much is YOUR 1st Round Draft Pick Worth? (Ep. 137)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast.
I am Ryan Warmley Joy today by just Pat Fitz.
Morris Scott Bogman is off enjoying Opening Day. I am
dressing for Opening Day. When we first hopped on the call,
Fitz was like, Yo, what the hell, man, where's your
Orioles gear? And I'm like, I'm up in Fantasy Pros gear. Okay,
this is a Fantasy Pros baseball jersey. There's nothing you

(00:26):
know that combines Opening Day with the fact that we're
on a football show right now. I'm surprised you're not
wearing more baseball stuff fits.

Speaker 2 (00:33):
I really should be wearing my Brewers hat worm, you know,
and like the Brewers. Maybe I don't have World Series
aspirations this year like you do. But it's opening game, man,
Hope springs Eternal.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
Yes, it was funny.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
The other day Fitz asked me who was starting Opening
Day for the Orioles, and I almost didn't have the
heart to remind him that it was the Brewers former
ace Corvin Burns. The good thing for you is that
Fantasy Pros's colors are essentially the Brewers colors, so you're
kind of wearing a Brewer's hat. Anyway, That's enough baseball

(01:07):
talk though for the for the folks who don't care
about that sport and are here for.

Speaker 3 (01:10):
Some dynasty chat.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Like I said, no Bogman Today will be back again
next week though, so just missing the one show, so
you just are stuck with myself and fits for today.
We are talking about first round values today, kind of
asking the question, what can you trade your rookie first
round picks four or vice versa in your dynasty leagues?
As of right now, we're still, you know, obviously a
few weeks away from the draft, so some of this

(01:33):
stuff is still kind of subject to change here and there,
but we figured it's a good time to kind of
step back and get a snapshot of what these picks
are actually being valued at in real leagues right now,
just to let everybody know. All of our early twenty
twenty four consensus rankings and tiers can be found at
fantasypros dot com slash rankings. You can also navigate from
there to our staff dynasty rankings on the site as well. Also,

(01:55):
we compiled a bunch of mailbag questions that were sent
to us on Twitter or x what ever. We're supposed
to call it now, so we're gonna be doing that
for the second half of the show.

Speaker 3 (02:03):
First half we'll be talking first round pick values.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Second half we will be answering some mail bag questions,
So thank you everybody for sending those in.

Speaker 3 (02:11):
Fitz. Let's jump right in.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
We will start at the very top, and the way
we're gonna do this is we're going to look at
these not each individual pick, but we're gonna look at
them as in tiers. So we kind of talked and
broke it into four tiers of the first round, and
tier one I think to both of us is pretty obvious.
The one oh one Caleb Williams and by the way,
I should say this.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
Is super flex is what we're assuming.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
One oh one Caleb Williams and one O two Marvin
Harrison Junior. We think those are the clear tier one.
So how are you approaching either trading away or for
those two players or really those two picks, but we're
kind of referring to them as the two players.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yeah, you and I think it's a clear cut tier
with those two players. I know some people like Maleik
Neighbors as much as or more than Marvin Harrison Junior,
which is cool, and in one QB dynasty leagues, I
think it is kind of a two man tier also
with those two wide receivers at the top. But boy,
I mean, I think worm, you are going to have
to pay through the nose if if you want to

(03:04):
acquire one of these picks, And I can't imagine they're
going to be a lot of deals involving one on
one and one oh two in the run up to
rookie drafts just because of the price. In what an
extraordinary year this is as as far as top end talent.
And maybe some people aren't all in on Caleb Williams
or Marvin Harrison, but I don't know. I kind of

(03:26):
think they should be, so I guess one way to
justify it is if you're doing a complete teardown, you're
willing to deal some still productive veterans and probably multiple
productive veterans for that cornerstone piece to start your rebuild,
you know, or maybe you are on the cusp of
a championship and you think that window is open and

(03:48):
you think that multiple productive veterans would do you more
good than either Caleb or Marvin Harrison could do for you.
In twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
Yeah, it's funny because last year I was actually in
one of those positions where I had the one oh
one in our work dynasty league, and I was very
clearly in rebuild mode and the one on one last
year was very obviously bijon, and so I said, listen,
he's a running back. I'm not going to be contending
the next two years. Let me get a huge hall
for him, which I did from our friend Mike Mayer.
This year is different because you're looking at a quarterback

(04:19):
and a wide receiver, not a running back. So these
are foundational pieces that even if you are in rebuild mode,
they should still be good for you for a decade plus.
So it's a little bit different than it was, you know,
for me last year as well. Are there I mean,
I mean looking at Caleb specifically too, like in startup
drafts in super flex leagues, I think he's very likely
a first round pick. He's you know, if you were

(04:40):
looking to trade in a super flex dynasty league, like
you know, Justin.

Speaker 3 (04:44):
Herbert or c. J. Stroud or Joe Burrow.

Speaker 1 (04:46):
One of these like not like top of the Tier
one quarterbacks, but like next one's down and that kind
of feels like where you and others are.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
Ranking Caleb Williams.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
You're looking at like three first round picks or something
like that at middlem like just to start the conference.
So if we're saying Caleb is in that that sort
of region already in terms of value, then that kind
of feels like where the conversation at least gets started, right.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
Yeah, So the Borough comparison is pretty apt, Like I
think the value is maybe pretty similar with those two
Burrow obviously older but more proven. I'd rather have Caleb
than Justin Herbert right now in a drive, just because
of the way it seems like things are headed with
the Chargers. With Greg Roman running the offense, which you

(05:32):
should know all about Worm as a Ravens fan, They're
not going to be pass heavy surprise, surprise. I'll just
you know. I've read the script on the twenty twenty
four season and I can tell you that the Ravens
will be one of the ten heaviest running teams in
the NFL. So there's that I don't know. Let's say
you were holding one on one Worm and I was

(05:52):
holding one oh six. If I offered you one O
six two O six, and three oh six for one
oh one? Would you take it?

Speaker 3 (05:59):
No? I would say no, not pretty pretty quickly. Yeah,
like not, yeah, I.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
Mean that's that's kind of how it is. Like I
think for one o one like CD Lamb and a
pick to get into one of those spots, or maybe
I don't know, maybe some people would take CD Lamb
for one o two straight up. I don't know if
you could get one oh one for CD Lamb straight up,
you might need to throw something in, you know, like

(06:26):
one o two. Maybe I'm on Ross Saint Brown and
a throw in.

Speaker 3 (06:30):
I was gonna say, are you are you hit to
get something?

Speaker 1 (06:32):
Because in our dynastyleague, I have CD Lamb and you
have the one oh one. Are you trying to work
a deal here right now?

Speaker 2 (06:37):
Like my heart is pretty set on Caleb and I
need the quarterback and I.

Speaker 1 (06:43):
Do as well, so I can I can relate to that.
Let's let's look at our Dynasty trade value chart. This
is a monthly chart that we update every you know,
single month on the side of Fantasy Pros. So this
is as the March update, which we did update in
mid March after free agency, so it's a little more
recently updated, then it.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
Would usually be at the end of the month.

Speaker 1 (07:01):
Again, you can find this on fantasypros dot com the
Dynasty Trade Value chart. You can google that as well
to find it. And so I want to put it
to the test. I'm going to give you a guy.
I'm gonna give you the value of the pick, and
then a player or two that is equivalent value to
that in the trade value chart, and see what you
would decide to do.

Speaker 3 (07:19):
The one oh one is valued in.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
Our calculations are the way we number it at ninety four.
That's equal to both Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. Actually,
now it sounded like you said you would rather have
the one oh one than Herbert.

Speaker 3 (07:32):
I know you're a huge Borough fan. What would you
do between those two?

Speaker 2 (07:35):
Oh Man, that one is really tough. I would I
think I would take one oh one over Burrow really close.
I think I'd rather have, you know, and it maybe
depends if I thought the championship window was open. I
guess I'd prefer Burrow.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
Okay, I think that's reasonable.

Speaker 1 (07:56):
I think Caleb Williams is so intoxicating it's it's but
obviously we've seen what Joe Burrow can do. I think
I would probably lean Caleb as well, but I think
it's I think it's right that they are evenly ranked
in our in terms of value here.

Speaker 3 (08:10):
I think that's fair.

Speaker 2 (08:12):
You are undaunted by Caleb Williams. Hello, kitty phone.

Speaker 3 (08:16):
No.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
I saw somebody say this on Twitter the other day,
and I think it's really apt that Caleb Williams isn't
like that weird or anything off the field. He's just
the first gen Z quarterback and most football watchers don't
know what that's gonna mean. But like, he's the first
guy of that generation who is now in a very prominent,
you know, starring quarterback position, and I think, like there,

(08:38):
we're just going to see more and more of those
That generation is I'm not even judging that, but they're
their own thing, and I think that's going to.

Speaker 3 (08:45):
Be more and more prevalent moving forward.

Speaker 2 (08:47):
Yeah, it's gonna be fun to see how that works
out in Chicago, the city big shoulders, the city that works.
You know, if if it's gonna fly with pink phones
and Rick Flair.

Speaker 3 (08:57):
But if he's.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
Going to be the best quarterback in Franche, which I
think you very likely will be, then they'll be very
happy with that, and look best, I think you're right
anything else.

Speaker 3 (09:06):
The one oh two.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
So you know, again we're assuming Marvin Harrison Junior here,
but that pick in a vacuum is worth seventy seven
on our Dynasty trade value chart. That's equivalent to Amanra
Saint Brown or Kyler Murray. What do you think about
those two versus the one oh two?

Speaker 2 (09:20):
Boy, interesting to have Kyler Murray here, since if this
pick is going to be Marvin Harrison Junior, that could
be Marvin Harrison Junior's quarterback in year one. Quite possibly, Boy,
I would I think I'm taking Marvin Harrison Junior worm.
You and I are both big ten guys. I mean,
we have been watching this guy for a couple of years. Like,
is there any doubt in your mind that this guy

(09:42):
is going to be a super duper star at the
NFL level?

Speaker 1 (09:45):
Zero zero doubt he is, Like, without hesitation, I am
putting him as a top four wide receiver in Dynasty
right now. I think Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and Ceedee
Lamb are the only three that I would take over
Harrison because I think a year from now, it's very
very likely unless he unless like for some reason, the
Patriots do end up taking him and not solving quarterback.

(10:08):
I could see it feeling like, well, maybe his value
looks a little worse a year from now because he
was in a terrible situation. That is the only outcome
in which I think he is not a clear top
five wide receiver after his rookie year in dynasty leagues.
I just think it's I just think there's I hate
putting the label can't miss on a prospect, but if
you were ever going to it's Marvin Harrison junior.

Speaker 2 (10:29):
Right, I'm totally with you, and like I would not
be surprised at all if he were a top ten
wide receiver in redraft.

Speaker 3 (10:38):
You're ranking him as such.

Speaker 1 (10:39):
We did a show with ericson earlier in the week
and we went through our top thirty six picks, and
you had him what like seventeenth in your early rankings,
I mean overall not a wide receiver.

Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yeah, it's like eleventh or twelfth. I think, yeah, I've
got him way up there. I've got him. Maybe it's
just outside wide receiver one range, but he is like
right at the back end of wide receiver one range
for me.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
We already mentioned that Dynasty trade value chart. I just
want to remind everybody to maximize your dynasty league's success
with Fantasy Pros as Dynasty trade value chart. At fantasypros
dot com slash trades, our analysts provide you with the
latest updates to keep you ahead all off season. Whether
you need single quarterback or super flex values for players
or rookie draft picks, we've got you taken care of.
Check it out now at fantasypros dot com slash trades

(11:22):
that make your next trade your best trade. Let's wit
to Tier two here and you and I decided that
this was the one of three, the one oh four,
and the one oh five I think likely to be
some combination of Jade Daniels, Drake May, and Elik Neighbors.
That's how we're looking at it. Unlike Tier one, I
think these names could go in pretty much any order,
depending on personal preference, depending on landing spot, depending on

(11:44):
team need. So a little less set on what each
pick is. But in this tier of really really good
prospects that you'd be very happy to add to your team.
So how are you approaching trading again away or four
players in this tier?

Speaker 2 (11:58):
Yeah, So if you are looking to maybe deal these picks,
if you're open for business holding one O three, one
oh four, one oh five, maybe it's because you're like
our own Thorne Eystrom college football and NFL draft analyst
who likes JJ McCarthy more than Drake may or Jayden Daniels,
and you're willing to go down to one oh seven

(12:20):
or one o eight where you think you could get McCarthy,
or you're perfectly happy getting Romo Dunes and think he's
every bit as good as Malik Neighbors is. I could
see maybe trading down a little bit and picking up
something extra in the deal, like a solid veteran. Maybe
you could move from one oh four to one oh
seven and get someone to throw in Tony Pollard or

(12:41):
something like that. The other reason kind of the same
thing as I mentioned with the Tier one guys, that
if you felt your championship window was open and you'd
be better served by getting a couple of productive veterans
rather than having this pick, that might be a reason
to trade the pick away. And yeah, since we are

(13:02):
talking about quarterbacks who are gonna have top five draft capital,
you're incentive to move into one of these spots, is
that you know you have a foundational piece for a
rebuild or a retool.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
So if Tier one is I need the trade offer
to be essentially a Godfather offer, you can't refuse. It's
just too much to possibly say no to. Let's call
that a ten out of ten. What out of ten
would you need as a kind of offer for this range?
Are you more like, I will move these guys, but

(13:35):
it's got to be worth my while, or are you
more like, I'm pretty sure I'm not moving these guys
unless I get also a Godfather close to that offer.

Speaker 2 (13:44):
Yeah, I mean, maybe not a Guido Corleone offer, but
maybe a Sunny Corleone offer for this Like, it's still
got to be something substantial, because this is a draft
we've been excited about for a while. And the reason
is because of the top end talent, because of potential
French quarterbacks, because Malik Neighbors is also a potential superstar

(14:05):
wide receiver. You're gonna have to come strong, I think
to get one of these picks.

Speaker 3 (14:10):
I shouldn't keep referencing The Godfather.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
I've only seen the first and I watched it like
on an airplane, like on my computer in a terrible setting.
So I'm not like the Godfather expert here.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
Fix that. Fix that. N see Godfather Too, which is
every bit as good as Godfather Won.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
I have definitely heard that.

Speaker 1 (14:26):
I'm aware that Godfather Too is like greatest sequel ever made.
It's amazing, like, and that three is supposed to be.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
Not very good. They're just they're very long. They're long movies.

Speaker 1 (14:35):
And it's not that they're bad, but they're long, so
it's hard to find the time to sit down and sa,
I'm gonna actually watch these. Let's look at the Dynasty
trade value chart here. The one of three is valued
at a seventy four in our trade value chart. That's
equal to Brock Purty or Dak Prescott. What do you
think about either of those guys for the one of three.

Speaker 2 (14:53):
There's no way I'm taking Brock Party for the one
O three, and I think we should probably, I think
we need to manually adjust that rank. Like, I like
Perty is interesting, and like I think he's got a
bright short term future as the forty nine ers quarterback.
But I don't know, I just I don't think he's
close to being worthy of this. Dek is interesting. I'd

(15:14):
rather one O three than Dak two and and Dek
is good, but he's at the height of his powers,
and we don't know how much longer uh Dek is
going to be at his peak. So I I'd rather
have one O three than either of those guys. I mean,
like other trying to think of guys who would be
more in the ballpark, Like I think it's more like
bres Hall, Jamior Gibbs, Bijeon, like the top of the

(15:38):
running back group, So Garrett, Garrett Wilson.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
So Bjeon again in our values, all right, there's room
for interpretation here. But if with the one of three
is a seventy four, Bijeon is a seventy five and
Brize Hall is a seventy three, so they're on either
side of where we're valuing the one of three.

Speaker 3 (15:54):
So you're spot on.

Speaker 2 (15:54):
With those, Yeah, yeah, And I mean, like that's that's
an offer i'd maybe consider if I have the one three,
like getting one of the best running backs in Dynasty, sure.

Speaker 1 (16:04):
To give a sense of where Perdy and Prescott are.
By the way, you know, we gave you the numerical value.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
That's QB fourteen and QB fifteen on our trade value
chart there, so there are thirteen guys that are valued
more highly than them. I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (16:18):
I mean, like the situation for Perdy is just so
sublime that it's like, I get why there's excitement about
you know, if you have money roster trying to win now,
he will probably accrue a good stat line again next season.
Let me ask you quickly, is your answer different in
terms of that one h three question if I'm telling
you it's specifically Jane Daniels versus specifically Drake May because

(16:39):
I know I think you are you are with me
on being higher on May, right.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
I am higher on May. But Daniels is like, maybe
that's a mistake because Daniels has that rushing potential. I'm
just a little worried about the long term business model
for a quarterback that thin who was sometimes not always
protected himself very well from taking like killer shots from defenders.

(17:08):
That's kind of my concern about Daniels, Like physically will
he hold up as this kind of taller, lankier guy.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
Okay, and then the one oh four is valued at
seventy one. That's equal to Jumior Gibbs, another top running
back in the Dynasty of Trade value chart.

Speaker 3 (17:22):
What do you think about that?

Speaker 2 (17:24):
That's pretty close. I think that one is pretty fair.
What would you think would you rather one oh four
or Puka Nikua?

Speaker 3 (17:31):
I think I'd rather have the one oh four.

Speaker 1 (17:36):
Because a just the value quarterbacks in a superflex is
like really can't be overstated. So if you think one
of may Or Daniels is good, especially if it's if
it's May, I'm definitely taking May because I'm a big fan.
But if a quarterback hits, they're just going to be
more valuable than even a top eight receiver in Dynasty.
And I also think Malak Neighbors has every opportunity if

(17:59):
he gets in the right lie any spot, to pass
Puka in the rankings. Not guarantee Pookah's awesome. It's not
a knock on Puka, but it's a possibility he does.
Plus you're also telling me maybe I get a Drake
May there too. I think I'd rather have Puoka than
maybe a Jane Daniels because I'm with you. I'm just
so concerned about frankly, just durability and like the recklessness

(18:19):
with which he plays. But if but if you're talking
may Or neighbors. I think I'd rather have.

Speaker 3 (18:24):
Them than Puka.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
Yeah, that's fair.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
The last one here in this tier one oh five
is a bit of a drop down. Sixty four is
the value we have on the on the value chart,
that's equivalent to Jonathan Taylor, AJ Brown, Chris A.

Speaker 3 (18:36):
Lave.

Speaker 1 (18:37):
Any of those names stand out as ones that you
would like to trade for one oh five or vice versa.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yeah, I mean I love Jonathan Taylor, really high on
AJ Brown and Chris Olave too, But like, I think
I'd rather have Malik neighbors than than any of these guys.
I mean close call with AJ Brown and O Lave,
you know, because those guys have demonstrated it at some point.
I still think a lot is terrific, even though it
seems like maybe his value has dropped off just a

(19:04):
smidge after the end of last year. But those are
in the ballpark. I mean, Devon H. Chan Is, he like,
I don't know, I guess I'd still rather neighbors than a.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
Chan Ah chan Is, I'm trying to find he's a
couple spots down from Taylor. He's like Taylor's sixty four,
A Chan's down at like fifty seven. So it's RB
four versus RB seven on the chart, so in that range,
but a bit of a step down. By now, most
of you have probably heard of Reality Sports Online, the

(19:38):
powerful fantasy sports platform where owners get to build and
manage their fantasy team like an NFL general manager.

Speaker 3 (19:44):
But the question is have you tried it?

Speaker 1 (19:46):
It's time to go see what all the buzz in
the dynasty community is about. Free agency, multi year contracts,
are rookie draft, multi team trades, franchise tags, contract extensions,
first round rookie options, automated contract and salary cap functionality,
and much much more. Think it sounds complicated, it's not.
The best thing about Reality Sports online Fantasy front office
is that it doesn't take any more time than a

(20:07):
standard league. It just requires more strategy. Think you're among
the fantasy elite, Well, this is the platform to test
your metal.

Speaker 3 (20:14):
Still not sure?

Speaker 1 (20:15):
You can test out your general manager skills for free
in a mock free agency auction if you like what
you see, used a promo code Fantasy Pros to receive
a ten percent discount on your team or league today.
That's promo code Fantasy Pros to receive a ten percent
discount on your team or league today, Fantasy just got
real at reality sportsonline dot com. Let's go to tier

(20:35):
three here and you got you and I have identified
this as one O six, one oh seven, one oh eight.
Again kind of the three names we're assuming go here
in some order similar to the last year. I think
this could really be any order, depending on team need.
Brock Bauers tight end, romadun Za wide receiver, quarterback JJ McCarthy.
So same question I've asked for the other tiers. How
are you approaching trading within this tier?

Speaker 2 (20:56):
Well, these mid round picks, mid first round picks are
so much more valuable this year than they were last year.
I mean, we've got Jji McCarthy might be a top
five pick. Uh, Rock Bauers maybe the best tight end
prospect ever, at least from a fantasy perspective. Roma Duneesa,
a guy who easily could be the wide receiver one

(21:16):
in a lot of other classes. And and last year
we were talking about the guys in this range being
like Quentin Johnston's z A. Flowers, Jordan Addison. Not that
Addison and Flowers aren't very promising pieces. They are, but boy,
I mean like it just seems like those guys are
a lot less valuable. You can get a potential cornerstone

(21:40):
dynasty piece in this round. So you know, it's if
you want one of these picks, you're you're gonna have
to come in with a strong offer. I don't know
how to extend the Godfather analogy here any worm, but yeah,
it's gonna be it would anyway. It's gonna have to
be a good one. And if you're willing to deal
one of these picks, make sure you're getting enough.

Speaker 1 (22:02):
And I will say I like the Flowers and Adison
obviously not Quentin Johnston, who was going close to this range,
and you know last year he's lost.

Speaker 3 (22:10):
A lot of value.

Speaker 1 (22:11):
But knowse Flowers is like one value lower than what
we have the one oh seven at Jordan Addison is
like three lower. JSN is one higher. So they're they're
close to that ranges. We've seen it now with them,
and there's an element of you know, maybe we're even
undervaluing Bowers and Odoonze because they're being pushed down by
this elite top of the class. But these are guys

(22:33):
that in most rookie drafts would be going, you know
more in that three to five range than they would
be the six to eight range.

Speaker 3 (22:40):
I would imagine.

Speaker 1 (22:43):
It's it's not you know, last year, if I had
a pick in this range, I was pretty happy to
say I think the twenty twenty four class is really good.
Let me see if I could package this this pick
and get or let me see if I get this
pick and have somebody packaged like a twenty twenty four
first plus something else smaller moving to next year's class.
I'm not doing that this year because the value is
just so much stronger here. I'm with you on I mean,

(23:09):
Bowers is so fun, A Duneza is so fun, JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 3 (23:12):
There are teams that really like.

Speaker 1 (23:13):
If JJ McCarthy goes to the Vikings and has that
set up with that offensive head coach, I will be
really excited about him in fantasy, even if I think
he's a clear fourth in the class. And again I
know Thorne e Istrom and Deebro disagree, and everybody should
listen to that. On this feed, the NFL Draft Show,
they talk about those guys all the time. But I mean,
these are three potentially very exciting. I mean, if a

(23:35):
Dunseeg gets paired with Caleb Williams in Chicago. If Rock
Bowers goes to LA I don't think that'll happen. I
think they're going offensive live. But I just mean, there's
so many really enticing options here. Dynasty trade value chart.
The one O six is at fifty eight. Is the
value that's equivalent to Brandon Nyuk, a player I know
you are a big fan of. So would you rather
have Brandon Nyuk or the one O six this year?

Speaker 2 (23:56):
Oh that's interesting. That's really close, man. I mean, I'm
I'm youth centric. Bogman would probably take Brandon Ayuk. I
think I'd take the pick, but it is really close.
I mean, I think this is kind of like Drake
London is maybe in this range, I mean Tyreek Hill
for the win Now teams, maybe even like you could

(24:17):
Jared Goff does that come in and about even like
and Goff is a good piece in super flex leagues,
and yet I think this is kind of the right
spot for him.

Speaker 1 (24:26):
Yeah, GoF is at Goff's at sixty one, so he
is you know.

Speaker 2 (24:31):
Three value deemed deemed to be slightly more than this.
I mean, what would you personally rather have Jared Goff
or JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 1 (24:40):
Uh, that's such a question of like four versus ceiling.
And I know Goff's I recognize gofs ceiling is maybe
higher than he's given credit for, but it is so
apparent to me that he needs really good players around
him and a really good scheme around him. And I
have to imagine at some point Ben Johnson will actually

(25:01):
take another job and leave Detroit, and that worries me
with Gough, but I'd like him as a player better
than McCarthy right now. But again, if you're putting I mean,
if McCarthy were to go to even a place like Washington,
which has some pieces, but I don't trust Cliff Kingsbury.
The pieces aren't at you know, Terry McLaurin is no
justin Jefferson. I'm looking at him a lot differently. If

(25:23):
you're telling me he's in Minnesota, that really changes for
fantasy how I'm evaluating McCarthy.

Speaker 2 (25:28):
Sure, and we're going to know the landing spot, so
that's gonna determine this, and maybe it even shakes up
the tiers a little bit, like if he does land
in Minnesota, maybe we're talking about McCarthy being more like
a Tier two guy. Than a tier three guy.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
I think for me it comes down to if I'm rebuilding,
I'm just always going to be the guy to take
the swing and say, if I'm in rebuild mode, my
only goal is to find like stud like center pieces
to my roster, and I think, sure McCarthy's a better
chance of being that over the next decade than GoF.
But if I'm at all interested in making the playoffs
this year, I'm probably just gonna stick with Goff, who

(26:01):
I know is good and in a good situation and
can be a really useful super flex quarterback for me.
The one o seven, well, by the way, just quickly,
because we don't have that much time. I'm thinking of
McCarthy generally, I've been thinking my ahead of him as
the one oh eight in a lot of leagues.

Speaker 3 (26:17):
Uh, do you think.

Speaker 1 (26:17):
He's more like one oh six, or maybe even a
chance to moving to one oh five if he goes
highly in the draft, or do you think he's still
gonna be behind kind of the the Bowers and Odonsays
of the world.

Speaker 2 (26:27):
I think landing Spottle matter for him for sure. Yeah,
that's if it somehow works out that he lands with
the Raiders. Or whatever. One O eight is probably the
right spot. But if he goes to the Vikings, I
think we're gonna have to move him up.

Speaker 1 (26:38):
I think if he goes to the Vikings, he's probably
a tier up, even though I think he's a step
down from those players. I think he will it will
be one O three to one oh six and then
Bowers and Oduonzay at the seven and eight. In most leagues,
I would I would guess at the one oh seven
is worth fifty three in our value points, that's equivalent
to Sam Laporta. So this is a spot where if
McCarthy does go earlier, it could be Bowers versus Laporta,

(27:01):
or you could be looking at in Adunes versus Laporta.

Speaker 3 (27:03):
Here, what do you make of that one? The one
O seven for Laporta?

Speaker 2 (27:07):
Man, I guess I'd have to go with Laporta. What
he what he did as a rookie was so not
to and he's going to be a cornerstone at the
position for a long time, like a top three guy,
and as good as Bauers is, like, are we ready
to predict that he's going to instantly be as good
or better than Sam Laporta? I don't know.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
If Sam Laporta didn't exist and Bowers did this year
what Laporta had done last year, we would be talking
about him as like one of the greatest Dynasty assets
you could possibly have. And Laporta actually did it, and
you know, obviously we would love to see Bauers do
something similar. But like it was a historic season. It
wasn't a really good rookie season. It was a historic

(27:44):
rookie season. That's that's really hard to ignore. He's rightfully
Dynasty tight end one right now in the value chart,
and then the one o eight is down at forty
seven value points. That's equivalent to Deebo Samuel or interestingly,
Bryce Young. How would you value the one oh eight
versus those guys.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
Man, I mean, I guess I'd prefer the one away
to Bryce Young. I know Bryce Young was really just
kneecapped by the lack of a supporting cast last year,
the bad offensive line, the lack of pass catchers. But nonetheless,
it was a pretty disappointing rookie year, and I think
we'd I guess I'd rather go sight unseen with JJ
McCarthy at one oh eight, even if he's playing for
the New York Giants or someone like that. So yeah,

(28:23):
I mean like Deebo is interesting. Deebo's kind of an
older guy. He's had some injury things, so I think
I'd rather have the pick than him. But I don't
know as far as other possibilities, like maybe you know
Jordan Addison is in this range, DK Metcalf, like those
are guys I might consider fair value for one O.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
Eight if you've got any dynasty drafts on the horizon
or want to see how the latest free agency moves
affect fantasy football drafts. Our mock draft simulator tool is
open at fantasypros dot com slash simulator. It's a fast
and free way to practice for any kind of draft,
including dynasty, startup drafts and rookie drafts. Again, that's a
Fantasypros dot Com slash simulator. Last tier here fits tier four.

(29:08):
I think it's very clear to most people who you
know have been paying attention to dynasty and rookie draft
specifically that there is a clear step down from the
one O eight to the one oh nine. There are
still really really fun, exciting, potentially very good landing spot
wide receiver options. Maybe RB one if somebody gets in
a really great spot that where you know, like Jonathan
Brooks to the Cowboys or something like that, this is

(29:30):
likely going to be just your pick of whatever.

Speaker 3 (29:33):
The next four receivers are are.

Speaker 1 (29:35):
Likely going to be nine, ten, eleven, and twelve In
most first rounds, I would imagine, unless somebody is just
absolutely desperate for a running back or something like that,
how are you approaching this year? This would be where
I would say, like I'd be very willing to maybe
trade for a twenty twenty five first and say, hey,
if you're trying to win, now get the guy you're early.

Speaker 3 (29:53):
I'll move it back.

Speaker 1 (29:53):
Even though I don't think that class is supposed to
be as strong as this one, we're now in the
range where there is value possibly to be gained by
going ahead a year.

Speaker 2 (30:02):
Yeah, as of now, it looks like there is a
precipitous drop off from that one oh six, one oh seven,
one oh eight tier to the bottom third of the
first round. And it seems I mean, the reason as
of now that I would not really be interested in
trading into this part of the draft, and the reason

(30:22):
I wouldn't be asking for that much if I was
going to trade down a little bit, like, I just
don't see that big a difference between pick one oh nine,
one ten and pick two oh two two oh three.
So but then again, worm, like most rookie drafts take
place after the NFL Draft, and maybe this winds up
being the tier with the guys who won the landing

(30:43):
spot lottery, like you said, if it's Jonathan Brooks going
to the Cowboys, all of a sudden, he becomes a
consensus like one ten, uh one oh nine something like that,
So I could see that, but as of now, I'm
just not gonna pay through the nose for these picks.

Speaker 1 (30:58):
It's basically gonna be like like Brian Thomas, I think
right now is sort of the favorite for one oh nine,
and let's say throw an RB one in there, and
then it's going to be like, whichever wide receiver the
Chiefs take is going to be in this range, and
we just don't know who that is yet. And if
a wide receiver goes early to like like if the
Texans take a guy to pera Nico Collins, or if

(31:18):
the Bills take somebody to be the successor just define
Diggs like those I don't know which name those will
be those will be the names that will be going
in this round. It's hard for me to imagine at
this stage in the draft process that a guy moves
up based on, oh, we think he's.

Speaker 3 (31:33):
A better prospect.

Speaker 1 (31:34):
It's very very landing spot depending at this point, I
would think it is.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
And you know, like I would recommend, especially if you
hold one of these picks at the end of the
first round, to go on the Draft Wizard, our Draft
Wizard where you can do rookie drafts and do it
with your exact league settings, and you're you'll be presented
with the dilemmas you will be presented with if you
have one of these ends of the draft picks. Like
we were doing a mock the other week and Debro

(32:00):
took Troy Franklin here and a lot of people kind
of panned that pick. But I feel like you're almost
set up for failure at one oh nine because, like
everyone's gonna have their favorite flavors at wide receiver whatever.
Some guys are gonna like Xavier Worthy, some are gonna
like Lad McConkie or Keon Coleman. And you know, if
if they don't share your opinion of who that next
best wide receiver is after maybe Brian Thomas, like who

(32:23):
wide receiver five is, because right now there is zero
consensus on that.

Speaker 1 (32:28):
I think just last week on the mock Draft episode
you myself and Bagman did I had the one O nine,
which I hated, and I think I took worthy just
to mix it up from what I had done previously
and to be like, listen, he's got an elite, elite,
elite trait and speed. I think he's gonna go to
a possibly a good landing spot at the back end
of the first round. I'll just take a chance here,
but it And I think I said on the episode,
I could have picked anybody. I could have said Brian Thomas,

(32:50):
I could have said, I really like Ladden McConkie. I mean,
I could have I like Troy Franklin. I see the
case for Ady Mitchell. Like there's this Keon Coleman, I
know you're a big fan of There's just so many
names that I think, like there's such a good chance
of seeing them in a really fun landing spot that
I wouldn't put any stock in who people are picking
at the one O nine right now because it's so

(33:10):
likely maybe Brian Thomas has separated a little, but it's
it's very.

Speaker 3 (33:13):
Likely to change.

Speaker 2 (33:14):
I think totally agree.

Speaker 3 (33:16):
Let's look at the trade value charts here.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
One O nine is equivalent to forty three, which is
equal to Dalton Kincaid or Davante Adams. Now, obviously Adams
is a clear case of like win now versus rebuilding
in terms of getting the rookie. Kincaid's really interesting, as
you know, he was kind of the tight end one
coming out of last year's class you served by Sam Laporta,
still a pretty exciting option in this Bill's offense. So

(33:38):
what would you do Kincaid, Davante or the one O nine?

Speaker 2 (33:42):
I think, as of now, i'd rather have Kincaid, like
I think he could join become maybe nearly as valuable
as Sam Laporta, if not as valuable. And DeVante, like
you said, worm, if you're contending now, really nice piece
a dude who's still had eleven hundred plus yards with
a let's call it suboptimal quarterback situation last year. Yeah,

(34:03):
So like Davante is still really good, and like the
adp on him is in redraft at least has kind
of baffled me this year, Like I can't believe people
are fading him to the extent they are, because still
one of the best receivers in the league.

Speaker 1 (34:17):
The one ten is valued at thirty nine. That's equivalent
to Tony Pollard changing teams running back everybody who's excited
about last year now sharing a backfield with Spears.

Speaker 3 (34:26):
What do you think about that?

Speaker 1 (34:27):
The one ten where you're probably not getting a better
running back than Pollard again, unless we really love a
landing spot here, but maybe a wide receiver that we like.

Speaker 2 (34:36):
Yeah, I'd rather have the pick than Tony Pollard. If
you wanted to offer me Jaden Reid for the pick,
I would maybe entertain that.

Speaker 3 (34:45):
I wonder I'm going to pull up here what Jaden.

Speaker 1 (34:47):
Reid is at. He's at forty two. So Jane Reid, Yeah,
right in that same range with this pick. So that's
an interesting one. The one eleven valued at thirty six
on our Dynaty trade value chart. That's equivalent to TJ.
High Atkinson, Najie Harris, and Joe Mixon. I wanted to
throw a couple different names here because we're getting into
this range where you're probably a contender if you have

(35:08):
this pick. So if you have a need at running
back and want to just say Arthur Smith is going
to run the ball a lot, so that helps Najie Harris.
Maybe they get better quarterback play, more scoring opportunities. If
you want to say, I don't think the injury is
that bad, and you know you're getting a tight end
and good offense in Hockinson. If you want to say
Mixing's great landing spot in Houston, I think you can
make the case for all of them. So one eleven
versus any of these three, I.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
Would take the one eleven over any of these three.
I was trying to come up with some sort of
alternative I thought would be fair, especially like if you're
a contender and wanted to deal this pick away, it
might be the right price point to gamble on Steph Diggs,
even though he from week ten on last year averaged
like forty two point two yards a game and had

(35:49):
one touchdown from week ten on, including two playoff games.
But at this point, like I think I'd be willing
to take the chance on him, add him rather than
a rookie if I felt like this was my year
to win the championship and just you know, put the
pedal of the metal and go for it.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
He's in a really interesting spot on the trade value chart,
not looking at the numbers, but in terms of just
the order, and you know the rank of these guys.
It goes thirty three Brian Thomas, thirty four Lad mccackey,
thirty five Troy Franklin, and thirty.

Speaker 3 (36:20):
Six Stefan Diggs.

Speaker 1 (36:21):
So he is behind a handful of those rookies, or
roughly equivalent to them, a handful of those rookies who
will be going in this range, I would think. I
think that's an interesting one. Lastly, one twelve he is
valued at thirty three. That's equivalent to Christian Watson.

Speaker 2 (36:37):
Oh interesting man. And since I'm a Packers fan, like
I might have a bias, but Watson hasn't done it yet,
and he's had these chronic hamstring issues, so I'd rather
have the pick as of now.

Speaker 1 (36:49):
I would tend to agree. I know that we had
a couple of members on our staff who were very
excited about Christian Watson going into last season. You know,
you win some, you lose some. Obviously there's talent there,
but I think given I think there's going to be
more and more mouths to feed in that offense. I mean, obviously,
so many young talented receivers there. He hasn't stayed healthy,

(37:09):
He's flashed at times. Certainly, he's not a guy I
would like be looking to sell, sell, sell, But I
think I'd rather take a chance on one of these
rookies again that I think will be in a really
nice landing spot. Not that he's in a bad spot
with Green Bay and Jordan Love, but that would be
my strategy as well.

Speaker 3 (37:23):
Let's jump into the mail bag here, fits.

Speaker 1 (37:25):
We've got a handful of questions that will run through.
We're not going to speed through these, but you know
we're not gonna necessarily do a deep dive either, because
I know we went a little long in the first
round values. But we've got, like I said, a handful
of questions here. Will jump in and appreciate again everybody
who sent these questions in via Twitter. We appreciate the
listeners and hopefully we can answer your questions to our

(37:46):
best ability. Let's start with number one. In general, what
is your strategy at running back in a startup that
comes from Anthony B.

Speaker 2 (37:54):
Pay Down? Generally, I like to build a foundation at
quarterback for sure in Superflex, but and wide receiver, like
I always prioritize wide receiver over running back because performance
is more predictable at the wide receiver position than at
running back, and wide receivers tend to age better than

(38:14):
running back, so that's why I want to go that
route in dynasty. So I'm usually not building with the Bijon's,
the Jumior Gibbs types in startups, and you know, like
you obviously have to fill the position, but I'm trying
to cut corners with guys like the Chase Browns who
maybe have a lot of potential but haven't done it yet,

(38:37):
or I'm just getting veterans I can put in as
like spackle, guys who aren't valued because they're older but
still the year or two production left and established roles
with their teams.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
What I like to do is build up everything else,
and then in that first rookie draft, that's where I'm
going to say, I'm going to try and get those
running backs. Now, having said that, that is a fairly
popular strategy at this point to wait on running back,
so I am willing to pivot if the rest of
my league is doing the same thing.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
I am not considering a running back in round one
at all, and I'm not considering a running back in
round two at all. If I'm in a league.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Where other people are devaluing running back and Bijon or
Bryce Hall or Jamier Gibbs is there in like the
middle of the third, that's what I'm like.

Speaker 3 (39:24):
Okay, maybe I go hero RB and get one. I'm
not taking two.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
I'm not gonna heavily invest, that's for sure, But maybe
I'm willing to say if one of these guys gets
to me in round three, I would consider it because
at that point, yeah, you're getting like the RB one
in Dynasty. I'll happily do that when I've already got
two other foundational pieces theoretically in rounds one and two.
But that's more of a pivot against everybody else is

(39:48):
kind of doing the same thing. If they're not all
doing the same thing, then that I kind of would
go along those lines.

Speaker 3 (39:53):
Of that strategy.

Speaker 2 (39:55):
Yes, that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (39:56):
Yeah, Next question here from George R. When approaching potential
trade partner, should you assess your potential trade partner's roster needs? Also,
do you engage in a dialogue with your partner or
send blind trades and hope they get back.

Speaker 2 (40:10):
To you well on the assessing the other the potential
trade partner's roster needs yes, yes, yes, like absolutely, like
that's how things get done. If you just are making
the deal based on like how you're trying to improve
your team, silly. And that's why I think, like you
know it and I know it where I'm like seventy
five eighty percent of the trade offers you get in

(40:33):
Dynasty or just complete trash.

Speaker 3 (40:35):
Yeah, So I.

Speaker 2 (40:36):
Appreciate the managers who like, look at my roster and like, hey,
I noticed you are a little bit light at wide
receiver and like put yourself in the other person chose.
That's how you get things done, and say what do
they need to improve their team? And like when you
start putting together offers, like do some role playing, some

(40:58):
method acting if you will. And you know when you
put together that offer, if you were being honest with
yourself and had the other person's roster, would they make
this deal? And if you're confident the answer is yes,
and the deal is good for you, I mean take
it to them. And as far as like the dialogue,
if you go through that, you shouldn't need a lot

(41:20):
of dialogue because you know you have a fair offer,
and there's not much room for negotiation, and just I
like the non negotiable trades like that, where it's like, look,
I put together a fair offer for you, take it
or leave it. But you know, as far as the
dialogue thing, it's always easier with friends. You're sitting in
a bar somewhere watching a game together, it's easy to talk.

(41:40):
And man, I've really been looking for another running back.
My running backs can suck. Hey, well i've got you
know this guy. I could throw you him for him,
and a lot of deals get done that way. But
for the most part, just come in with a fair offer,
put yourself and the other person choose.

Speaker 1 (41:56):
One of these days, I want us to get a
deal done in our dynasty on air during the taping
of one of these shows that that will be a
goal of mine.

Speaker 3 (42:06):
Yeah, I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (42:07):
I think I think equally as importantly as assessing your
trade partners needs is assessing their strengths. Because I think
it's very easy to be like, oh, they need you know,
whatever position a wide receiver. Let me see if I
can get a running back from them for one of
my receivers. Well, they might also need running back help
like I think I think it's easy to see like, oh,

(42:28):
you have this need and kind of ignore the rest
of the roster, So you should look at it in totality.
And also I think that's where you can find value
if you're going up, if you're looking at trade with
somebody who has they just like are loaded at wide receiver.
They have six guys that are ranked in our top
twenty four. It's a position they valued, but you can't
start them all. And if anything, it's maybe even too
much depth. Well, you can get value because their team

(42:50):
maybe on our maybe on a trade value chart it's
not even, but it makes their team better to get
a running back where they have a hole and give
up maybe a wide receiver who's definitely worth more because
you can actually start the running back. So I think
it's I would expand upon just saying look at your
potential trade partners roster needs, and say look at the
totality of everything, and then I agree with you. There

(43:11):
shouldn't need to be a lot of dialogue if it's
a fair offer, And if it's if there's a lot
of dialogue, either they're probably not really interested for whatever reason.
Maybe they're just not a team that likes to make
trades or whatever, or it's probably not a fair offer,
I think, are you know if you really need to go.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
Back and forth too much like that?

Speaker 1 (43:28):
So I'm with you on that next question here, This
comes from Kevin Coleman, actually from Football Guys Front of
the Show. If you had to choose between Reshi, Rice,
Jackson Smith and Jigba Za Flowers and George Pickens to
be the better Dynasty asset at this time next year,
who are you taking?

Speaker 3 (43:44):
And why? Again? That's Rice, JSN, Flowers and Pickens.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
Leave it to the great Kevin Coleman to stick me
with such a tough question. Well, Kevin, if there's a
hole in my game, it's probably that I tend to
stick with my initial reads on players too long. And
I mean I really did like Jackson Smith and Jigba's
draft profile the most out of all these prospects. He
just turned twenty two, and while it's not ideal that
he's going to be competing with targets, for competing four

(44:12):
targets with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, again, the fact
that he's so young gives this kid a really long runway.
And I think he'll eventually have less target competition. So
I'll take JSN over Rashi, Rice, Say Flowers, and George Pickens.

Speaker 1 (44:28):
I think it's a fantastic question because it is. I like,
in just reading the four it's like, oh, yeah, it's
gotta be real.

Speaker 3 (44:34):
Well it should probably be. Actually I see the case.
You know, it's like you're just so.

Speaker 1 (44:37):
Easy to go back and forth and be like, well
you can kind of you know, Pickens, there's no target
competition right now. Flowers, there's really none at the wide
receiver room. Of course, there is a tight end. And
you know he's he's got not the best quarterback in
this group because obviously Rice has Mahomes, but he's got
the second best quarterback in this group, Rashi.

Speaker 3 (44:53):
Rice is attached to Patrick Mahomes, but they are probably gonna,
you know, get another receiver. So I'm talking in circles
because you can make the case for all.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
Yeah, quick quick point. Like Andrew Cooper, friend of the Shows,
he posted something on Twitter about like how the Chiefs
far and away led the NFL and like screens to
wide receivers and tight ends last year that was out
in necessity, they didn't have pass catchers who could really
do business successfully downfield. Now they've got Marquise Brown and
we know they're gonna draft someone else, so there's gonna

(45:21):
be more target competition. A lot of those screens were
going to Richie Rice. I think we're going to see
less of that in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (45:27):
I would probably go either JSN, who I adored in
last year's class, or Flowers. Because I'm ten, I'm gonna
tend to lean with the rookie who I think can
take that big year to leap and I think I
saw a lot out of Flowers obviously has a Ravens fan.
I watched a ton of them. That makes me think
there is a level to be unlocked here. You know,
set Lamar second year in Toddmunkins offense will be more comfortable.

(45:49):
I think there'll be a better connection on the deep ball.
So I'm really excited about Flowers next year. And Jays
said if he can get the actual opportunity, which I
think he will earn this season, I would be really
surprised if he doesn't. I think those of the two
that I think take the biggest steps forward, but Rice
is probably starting from the best point.

Speaker 3 (46:04):
So it's a question.

Speaker 1 (46:05):
So it's not who takes the biggest sleep, but who
will be the better dynasty ascid at this time next year.
I kind of throwing my hands up and I'll say
hisay flowers just to be a homer. But that's because
I really, I really can't make a decision amongst them.
I see the case for, frankly, all four of them.
So thank you Kevin for the question. Next question here
from Nathan J. Is there any justifiable reason to do

(46:26):
rookie drafts before the NFL Draft? I see leagues that
do this and just seems crazy and really adds more
of a lottery feel to it. I guess that could
be fun on draft day to see if you scratched
off a surprise winner. I like the way he phrased that,
you know, with the lottery metaphor there.

Speaker 3 (46:43):
What do you think about that one fits?

Speaker 2 (46:44):
Yeah, Nathan frames it pretty well. I think some people
like to do it because it really tests your prospect
evaluation ability. And I think the best example is the
case of Hakeem Butler back in what was like twenty nineteen. Man,
I'm forgetting the year, but like a lot of people
rated Queen Butler's the number one wide receiver in the class.

(47:05):
He was big, he was fast, he had this great
final season at Iowa State. But then Butler went into
a complete free fall at the draft. Some people thought
he was going to be like a first round pick,
not a first round pick, not a Day two pick.
Winds up going at the top of round four, and
the people who had ranked Butler as their wide receiver
one in that class got bailed out because they saw

(47:27):
what the draft capital was and saw that the NFL
didn't value him the way like Fantasy Twitter did. So
if you hold your rookie draft before the NFL draft,
misjudgments like that hurt you more. Sharp analysis hurts you more.
But then again, he's right about the landing spot lottery.
You might really like a guy and like, oh, it's
a quarterback who goes to the Giants, or it's a

(47:50):
wide receiver who goes to an already crowded wide receiver room. Ultimately, Nathan,
I'm with you. I prefer the post NFL draft drafts.

Speaker 3 (47:59):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (47:59):
Maybe it's it's like even this year, like a bon Nicks,
you get him kind of later in the rookie draft
and all of a sudden, all the Broncos are desperate,
and now he's looks like this starting quarterback and Sean
Payton offense. I think even last year to a much
less year degree because everybody already liked him. But last
year I was very happy to take like JSN over
Jamiir Gibbs, for example, even though I really liked Gibbs,
I think gives us a top twelve pick, and that

(48:21):
draft capital means something and is a sign of what
the team believes in, what the NFL thinks about a player,
so that you know, made it easy for me to
then kind of move gives up in my estimation, again
much less degree than you know, the example of like
a King Butler like that. I think it's I think
it's a fun twist to kind of shake things up,

(48:42):
but it's definitely always going to be safer after the
NFL draft, right, I mean that's kind of the point.
It's kind of like people who draft like August first
versus like you wait to see what all the injuries
happen later. It's like the more information you have, you know,
the easier it is. So if you think you're really
sharp and smarter than your league mates, then I would
push you to go earlier. See, I can read the
tea leaves better than you. I can evaluate prospects better

(49:03):
than you. But that's it's more of a unique twist
to it, not anything that I've seen happen too often.

Speaker 2 (49:09):
For the poker players out there. It's like betting pre
flop versus betting on the river.

Speaker 1 (49:14):
I'm not much of a poker player, so I'm just
gonna nod and say, yeah, yeah, totally, like as if
I understood that I enjoy poker, but I'm just not
good at it or know any of the terminology.

Speaker 3 (49:24):
Next question here from Rory B.

Speaker 1 (49:26):
With Puka being drafted late second, early third in some startups,
has he become a cell high option? Stafford's health is
always a question, and maybe Cup bouncing back could harm
Pooka's output.

Speaker 2 (49:38):
Oh well, Rory, you know we are all drinking the
Puka juice here at Fantasy Pro, so I mean I've
got him as a late second rounder myself. I guess
he didn't actually mention the biggest concern I have with
Puka's it's it's not Stafford's health, It's it's Puka's health.

Speaker 3 (49:54):
I was gonna say the same thing.

Speaker 2 (49:55):
Yeah, yeah, he missed a lot of time in college.
He missed time with a broken foot, he missed with
an ankle injury. Sarah Barshop of ESPN had a story
about Pooka last year and we oughte that some NFL
teams didn't even have him on their draft boards, Wow,
because they were worried about his durability. But I'm not
concerned about it. Like you said, no ligament tears in
his past, no chronic soft tissue issues like you know

(50:18):
Christian Watson of all of a sudden developed. So I'm
pretty bullish on Pooka going forward.

Speaker 1 (50:23):
Honestly, I think he is, yes, a sell high option,
but emphasis on high. I think that it's really easy
to look at a player and say, oh, he's a
sell high and that just means trade him for the
best value you can get. And I don't mean that,
I mean if you can trade him for a truly
elite asset or two really really good assets, then I

(50:45):
am willing to do that. But again, I think people
often you know, misconstrus sell high as sell and he
is not a sell But if you can sell high,
given that there is some degree of risk with him,
I'm willing to do that I did that.

Speaker 3 (50:57):
It was early last year before.

Speaker 1 (50:58):
We saw what he did in totality last season, but
I sold him to get Garrett Wilson in our dynasty league.
I'm happy to do something like that where I'm feeling
pretty good that I'm getting an elite asset in return.
Now again, Puka looked really good the rest of the year,
so you can quibble about whether or not that was
the right move, but that's the type of move I'm
willing to make with Puoka, not sell to the highest
bidder if that differentiation makes sense. Next question here, the

(51:22):
dynasty tight end market is changing with the emergence of
young talent and some studs getting older. Does this change
your startup strategy or how you viewed tight ends in trade?
That comes from Dave h.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
Yeah. This is Dave Heilman, by the way, one of
my good buddies in the fantasy industry. Super good guy. Yeah,
and I'll breeze through this one quickly because I want
to make sure we squeeze in the next question. At least,
I think there are two ways to look at it. Like,
on one hand, with all the good young talent at
the tight end position, I don't think you have to
be too grabby in startup drafts, Like you don't have
to aggressively target this specific guy because after he goes

(51:58):
like the the bot just drops out with the tight
end market. It's not like that anymore. I mean, we've
had this wave of good young talent and now we're
getting another stud in brock Bowers hopefully too with Jatavian Sanders.
On the other hand, like, I want one of these
good young guys in my startup if I can do it.
So ultimately, I think I'm just kind of value hunting,

(52:20):
Like I'm looking for a good tight end at a
reasonable price, and preferably a good young one. But if
I have to hamm anagg it for a couple of
years with Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry, is my two
tight ends, Like, so be it. If different startup drafts
have like these different cultures, and some people are going
to be really into the tight ends, especially if it's
tight end premium. It's tight end premium. The price on

(52:43):
tight ends sometimes gets a little silly, and in that
case then I'm definitely more likely to have a Dalton
Schultz Hunter Henry combo.

Speaker 1 (52:50):
Do you have a round that you'd like to take
your tight end in and startup like obviously, let's say,
assuming you're getting good value in every round, you'd like
to fill out your two quarterbacks first. You'd like to
get at least a stud receiver, maybe a running back.
Is there around where you're saying, if I can get
a good young tight end, I feel good about here,
I'll be happy.

Speaker 2 (53:07):
I'm not even thinking about tight end till the fifth
or sixth in a super flex startup. It's yeah, fifth
or sixth, they're beyond usually beyond.

Speaker 1 (53:17):
Okay, let's go to a question that I think is
one you were referencing that you want to get to
quick hitter takes on the top twenty twenty five rookie
picks and how those guys compared to this twenty twenty
four batch. That's from Nathan b.

Speaker 2 (53:29):
I mean, I think what made us so excited about
the class of twenty twenty four as far back as
a year ago, was that just the combination of depth
and spectacular top end talent at the wide receiver position,
a quartet of quarterbacks, or maybe we thought it was
gonna be just two or three, but now it's four.
We're gonna be top six draft picks and one of
the best tight end prospects of all time. So like

(53:51):
that that's a pretty appealing package. Class of twenty twenty
five is pretty interesting, but it doesn't look like it's
gonna be as good good not as strong as quarter
at quarterback, and honestly, I don't even know who the
QB one is gonna be. Maybe Drew Aller of Penn State.
So there's some really good receivers, like Luther Burden of

(54:13):
Missouri could be the number one pick in the NFL Draft.
Like he's going to be very exciting, a Mecca Egbuca
who a lot of people thought was going to come
out this year. He's going to be a gem. But
here's what I like most about the class of twenty
twenty five. Worm. Whereas this year's running back class is
just okay and kind of a mixed bag, next year's

(54:34):
running back class looks really juicy. I mean, Ohio State
now has two top running back prospects with They already
had Trevion Henderson at Ohio State and now they're getting
quinch On Judkins transferring from Old miss I mean, talk
about the rich getting richer. That's just an embarrassment. Of
riches in the OSU backfield, Rocket Sanders from Arkansas, Donovan

(54:57):
Edwards from Michigan, Jiquavius Marks Mississippi State, Taj Brooks from
Texas Tech. Really fun running back class.

Speaker 3 (55:04):
Nick Singleton too at Penn State.

Speaker 2 (55:06):
Who was really good as a fresh bass.

Speaker 3 (55:08):
A little bit of a step back last year. Yeah,
it's it's interesting.

Speaker 1 (55:11):
I find that I don't typically start really thinking about
the next year's class until we get there.

Speaker 3 (55:15):
I try and think about the value of the picks.

Speaker 1 (55:17):
You know, just from reading what other people who are
frankly smarter than I am are saying about them. And
I love, like you said, the running back class is
really exciting.

Speaker 3 (55:24):
You know.

Speaker 1 (55:24):
I've seen like we just mentioned, like Kevin Coleman. I
think he's really high on Luther Burton, for example. So
like I kind of try and see what names people
already starting to talk about. But I don't feel like I,
you know, have dive deep into it or anything like
that quite yet. I do think on the quarterback like,
I'm gonna guess it's not aller or shitter Sanders. I'm
gonna guess it's somebody that kind of comes out of nowhere.

Speaker 3 (55:45):
To be QB one, babe, it doesn't.

Speaker 1 (55:47):
It just feels like one of those years where there's
not like that preordained guy like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb
Williams or whoever. Let's very quickly hit on these last
year that we wrote down. Will go speedy through these
from John M. What are you doing with players like
Ryan Tannehill, Sam Howell, Mac Jones and Justin Fields if
they are on your team, what are you sending to

(56:07):
acquire them individually in a twelve teams super flex five
point touchdown scoring league. These are obviously all former starting
quarterbacks that are now backups.

Speaker 2 (56:16):
Yeah. So this is John McGlenn, who is the commissioner
of a league that I'm in, a dynasty league, So
obviously he's feeling me out for inside information. Good buddy
of mine. John's awesome hosts the Let's See Dynasty Evaluation
Show and Commissioner Evaluation Show, so he is a pillar
of the fantasy community. Five Justin Fields, I am holding

(56:37):
him right now like I'm still a believer, and there's
no way I'm gonna sell him right now with his
price at absolute rock bottom. So he's just a complete hold.
I would probably trade Sam Hall for baloney sandwich, like
I just and I've got him sitting on a roster,
like come and make me an offer, like third round
rookie pick fine, like his season just went completely off

(57:02):
the rails last year, like completed less than half his
passes in the last few weeks, and like when he
was fantasy relevant for a while last year was just
based on sheer volume. He was leading the league in
pass attempts at one point. Takes way too many sacks.
I mean, I suppose Justin Fields does too, but I'm
a much bigger believer in fields talent than I am

(57:23):
in Sam Howell. So and then who were the other
two guys, Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill? I mean, what
are you going to get for Ryan Tannehill?

Speaker 1 (57:32):
I was gonna say, I'm not even taking the Bologney sandwich.
I don't take the bolognae Like that's you don't even
get the brad exactly. So the last question here, how
do you assess your team's positional needs when you have
many players suddenly all on a new team.

Speaker 3 (57:47):
This comes from MB football. The examples he gave Swift
Pollard mixing Moss Edwards.

Speaker 1 (57:52):
So again, how are you assessing your positional needs when
all these players are suddenly on a new team.

Speaker 2 (57:57):
I just think you have to look at the part
individually and determine whether the new surroundings significantly boost or
decrease the fantasy value of these players. Like I think
Zach Moss and Gus Edwards are kind of like marginal
back of the roster guys who've like gained value as
a result of where they're going. I think Tony Pollard

(58:20):
has lost value going where he is and now having
to maybe share with Tayja Spears and a worse offense.
And I don't think the value of DeAndre Swift or
Joe Mixon has changed much like much different surroundings. But
ultimately I think it's kind of a push as far
as whether they gained or lost value.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
Thank you so much to everybody, both in the industry
and the listeners for sending in those great questions. We'll
do this and again at some point in coming months
another mailbag show, because we've got so many good ones.
So we appreciate everybody for sticking with us for a
long episode and hopefully we managed to man the fort
successfully without Bogmin Here Fitz go enjoy the rest of
Opening Day. I know I'm about to start watching the

(59:02):
Orioles and have hopefully the start of a very fun
season with them. At best of luck to whatever degree
the Brewers can be successful this.

Speaker 3 (59:09):
Year as well. Forfits, I am Ryan Warmley. Thank you
everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time.

Speaker 1 (59:16):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple.

Speaker 3 (59:24):
Podcasts or Spotify.

Speaker 1 (59:26):
Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
slash Fantasy Pros.

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

The Nikki Glaser Podcast

Stuff You Should Know

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}How Much is YOUR 1st Round Draft Pick Worth? (Ep. 137)

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Dateline NBC

The Nikki Glaser Podcast

Stuff You Should Know

All Episodes

How Much is YOUR 1st Round Draft Pick Worth? (Ep. 137)

Dateline NBC