NFL Draft Rookie Rundown: Why Bo Nix is NOT a First-Round Prospect (Ep. 143)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back, everybody.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's the Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast on Fantasy Pros. I'm
your host, Scott Bogmin. Follow me on the Twitter at
Bogmin Sports. I'm joined as always by Pat Fitzmorris at
fitz Underscore ff on the Twitter machine. And today on
the show we have Thorn Nystrom at thor ku on
the Twitter to talk a little NFL Draft here six
days out and just to remind you guys, we will
be live on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel during the

(00:26):
first two nights of the NFL Draft, starting Day one
at seven pm Eastern and Day two at six pm Eastern.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Thor and Joe, I know we'll be there. I'm sure.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
I'm sure Pat, you'll show up at some point to
come in. I know you have some articles to write.
I'll probably make an appearance if that's okay, and talk
to you guys during the draft.

Speaker 1 (00:47):
It's going to be a fun night.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
But we have Thor here and Thor you just put
out your five hundred rankings of the top NFL Draft
prospects with comps for everyone, and you are a madman.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
It is insane.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
How much fun was it making the list versus how
stressful what is the stress verse fun level, because hey,
look it's your job. It beats thicking ditches, but you
got to get it done.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
It's a lot of work.

Speaker 3 (01:14):
So yeah, it's a bit of both, but certainly a
labor of love.

Speaker 4 (01:18):
And these are you know.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
With my job, it's college football the other part of
the year, So these are guys that you know, I've
I've followed and covered since coming out of high school.
So it's fun to be able to then, you know,
with their projections and everything in the spring, and then
toss a comp on them and then stack the board
and you know, with that board, you know, not only
going five hundred deep. But one of the things that

(01:40):
I like about it not only making it printable so
people can bring it to their draft parties and cross
off the names, but the way that I like to
do it is with the picks that are actually in
the draft, including the components. You have thirty two picks.
Those are the thirty two guys that got first round grades.
On one of my random nippicks about my industry. Are
the guys that are like, oh, I have fifteen guys
with first round grades. It's like, no, you don't the

(02:01):
top thirty.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Two are you guys?

Speaker 4 (02:04):
Are your first round great.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
Guys, and then you know, like and then all the
way down. However, many picks per round through the two
hundred and fifty seventh is how many picks we have
in this This one are my draftable guys. They're broken
up by the rounds like that, and then the rest
of the guys of course, the udfas and and like
you mentioned, everyone has a comp including the couple of
special teamers on there. And I had the punter that

(02:26):
I gave the best grade two that I ever had
this year in the fourth round. But lots of different
fun stuff in there, and lots of interesting comps so
that people should check out.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Yeah, it's gonna be fun. It's always one of my
favorite days of the year, the NFL Draft, the first
day of the NFL, the first day of college football,
opening day in baseball. Yeah, these are just fun days
if you're a sports fan. So we have Thor. We're
gonna put them on the hot seat and ask him
some questions about this list and about the players, and

(02:59):
FITZI your first up.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
I will let you kick it off here.

Speaker 5 (03:02):
Yeah, Thor, you know, I have to start within a
question about JJ McCarthy, and you have been very much
in on him for quite a while. I know how
much college football you watch, and I know you didn't
just fall for him during the pre draft process. I
also know that you happen to be a Minnesota Vikings fan.
They need a quarterback, and there's been all sorts of
speculation about the Vikings using their number eleven pick, their

(03:26):
number twenty three pick to move up and get McCarthy.
And I was pretty much telling Deepro the other day,
if the Vikings don't draft McCarthy, I am going to
have to drive up to Minneapolis at one hundred miles
an hour to do a wellness check on you. I'll
be worried about you, quite frankly. What is it that's
causing this man crush on JJ McCarthy. What is it

(03:47):
about him you like so much?

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, it's the you have the athletic traits with the
arm talent, and then a guy that you're going to project.
We keep getting better and better. And speaking to the
athleticism the arm town both of which were confirmed at
the NFL. Combined with data, the athleticism six best three
cone regardless of position at seventeen pounds heavier than his

(04:10):
Michigan bio, which also checked the box of anyone's size
concerns if they still had any. And then the max
velocity throw sixty one miles per hour was one beneath
the record for that, which was Josh Allen before Joe Milton,
who maybe not the best quarterback prospect but has an
enormous arm. He matched it this year. JJ McCarthy was

(04:31):
one mile prower beneath that. You have the traits to
begin with, but they work together with one another on
the field. You know you have guys, for instance Joe Milton.
Don't mean to pick on him, but quarterback prospects like
that where they have the strong arm and they are athletic,
but they absolutely categorically do not work together with one
another on the field. A better example of this, and

(04:51):
are a higher rank example of this in the class
would be Michael Pennix. Pennix is, as we saw it
his pro day, is a good athlete and he has
a good arm. But you can see this in the
data or you can see this on his film. The
more his feet are moving, the more his accuracy depreciates.
Does not throw on the run well at all, That

(05:11):
is McCarthy's best thing. And when you're talking about his
projection to the next level, that's where it gets really cool.
He loses zero accuracy on the move. He's an awesome
improvisational guy. Last year it was seventy two percent and
change completions in the aggregate against by the way easily
the hardest strength is schedule that any of the top

(05:32):
quarterbacks played, including the entire nation, you know, run through
the CFP where Michigan won the national title. They would
not have beaten Alabama unless JJ McCarthy had spurred the
double digit comeback in the second half against that nasty
defense that Alabama had, and then Nick Saban subsequently retired
after that. But like you know, you have that stuff
going on the field. He takes his mechanics with him,

(05:53):
keeps the eyes downfield, upper bodycock to throw while he's
on the move, and keeps throwing platform under him. He's
also very good under pressure, very very good under pressure.
One nuance about his film like, I don't see this
discussed as much. A lot of these quarterbacks that you
see in college. You're watching the cutups, they fade away
when they're about to get hit, or they brace for

(06:15):
the hit. These different things that end up their mechanics.
They're not stepping into the throw all the way, and
they're different things where they manifest in the accuracy not
being quite as good on that throw. McCarthy will eat
the shot every single time, step into the throw, look
down the gun barrel to do that. It's a subtle

(06:35):
thing like that, and it's like, you know, when announcers
will talk about it, be like, oh, the kids so tough,
But that's not the thing to focus on. The thing
to focus on is the mechanics are there every single time,
whether he's on the move, whether he's about to get hit, whatever.
So the accuracy plays up each and every single time.
Like I said that, the athletic traits are there, the
arm strength is there. Then you have an NFL sitting

(06:57):
head coach that JJ won national title for last as
a twenty year old junior, that believes he is the
best player in this class, and of course the rest
of that Michigan staff that has now dotted around the NFL.

Speaker 4 (07:08):
Gushes about him.

Speaker 3 (07:09):
Ask any of those guys about JJ McCarthy, they will
go on and on and on talk about him for
even longer than I do. So you have all that
different stuff and it makes you pretty bullish about his
teammates love him as well. You have the leadership, you
have the intelligence, the intangibles with the on field stuff.
The people that nippick him, it's just about counting stats
and they don't toss out any of the concept texts

(07:31):
for why that stuff occurred. The one thing that I
could toss out with that that I always mentioned is
in seven of the fifteen games last year, because Michigan
was slapping opponents silly so much, JJ McCarthy took zero
fourth court of snaps in some of those games. He
was taken out even before then. So he missed in
the aggregate over two full games just because he was

(07:51):
getting pulled early because they were annihilating teams by so much.
And oh he didn't have to prove it. He proved
that he could come back on an awesome defense and
the biggest possible Alabama in you know, on the sports
highest stage right before he came out, and of course
they won the national title.

Speaker 5 (08:06):
Then the sports books have the over under on McCarthy's
landing spot at five and a half. Do you do
you think he goes top five for I.

Speaker 4 (08:15):
Would go under that.

Speaker 3 (08:16):
Yeah, I do think that there is a scenario that
the QB four could sneak past the wickets there, you know,
whether you know to the Giants or whatever. But yeah,
I mean, I'm I'm going under with McCarthy on that.
I think at the end of the day. Yeah, you
guys know how bullish I've been on that. There has
been discussion of Washington. Nobody knows where Washington's going. The

(08:37):
sportsbook odds with Washington have been all over the place
this entire process. There's been rumors that New England is
interested in him. The Minnesota my local team could obviously
trade up. There been the stuff of that all process
with either the Cardinals or the symmetry. How how symmetrical
would that be? If JJ McCarthy's ball father, Jim Harbaugh,

(09:01):
got to select his next destination, and mister Harbaugh, man,
you look around, you want to pick the best destination
for JJ McCarthy in the NFL. How about a twelve
personnel running team that has the best wide receiver in
football and one of the better offensive play callers that
we have at Kevin o'cado at a wide open quarterback spot,

(09:22):
and by the way a fan base that desperately, you know,
will embrace the quarterback but also the winner.

Speaker 4 (09:28):
Thing like has never won a Super Bowl here?

Speaker 3 (09:31):
If you do that, if you do what JJ did
last year, and by the way, going back to high
school was winning all the state titles. Do you look
at his career record going back to high school? It
is insane. Your your eyes will bug out of your head.
If whoever you know quarterback come in anyone wins a
super Bowl with the vikings, you become theo Epstein in
Boston times or times like one hundred, like you know

(09:53):
you are, you are minted, you will be They will
build statues for you in this state.

Speaker 2 (09:58):
Are you sure those Michigan coaches like JJ McCarthy more
than you do.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
I think you might like him more and I like
fits over here.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
Fitz is trying to like Drillia for information so he
can win the betting pros NFL Draft contest.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
That we're doing here. So he's like, what do you
think of those five and a half here?

Speaker 5 (10:17):
Yes, exactly, and I should mention the contest, Bogs. Thanks
for teeing me up on that. I do want to
invite our listeners and viewers to join the Betting Pros
NFL Draft prop Picks challenge. You just download the Betting
Pros app, go to Bettingpros dot com slash draft and
click the button to join the group. Either log your
NFL Draft bets via quick picks or sink your bets

(10:39):
in the app. Make at least five bets, and whoever
gets the biggest profit wins first place free one year
premium sub to Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros, and four
runners up get a twenty five dollars gift certificate for
swag in the Betting Pros shop. So yeah, go check
it out again Bettingpros dot com slash Draft.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
Yeah. I tell you, I'm not reading.

Speaker 2 (11:03):
I'm not gonna just ask questions about this contest for Thor,
so we will ask him for Fantasy relevant questions. I promise,
so Thor on your QB if you're ready to move
on from JJ McCarthy, that is, of course. But b
Nicks bo Nicks is a polarizing prospect. I did a
seven round mock this week. I still had him going

(11:25):
at twelve to the Broncos because I just I don't
know who's trading back with the Broncos you have to
have two to dance, you know what I mean, it
would cost a lot to get up there. I know
he's probably not a first round prospect, and I think
you have him closer to the third round, right, you
have Spencer Ratler ahead of him, So just tell us

(11:46):
why bon Nicks and for fantasy, if he is drafted
in the first round, I think you have to acknowledge
that in terms of his value, right, Like first round
quarterbacks are just looked different on you know, by NFL
gms and the NFL in general. They always get I mean,
look at Sam Darnold's still getting this third shot, fourth

(12:07):
shot really with your team, the Vikings this year. Right,
So if he goes in the first he is more valuable,
you know, I think. But you like Spencer Rattler ahead
of him, So kind of just fill us in about
the bow Knicks you know dislike and is it more
about disliking Bonicks or liking Spencer Rattler.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
Well, it's not Bonick's dislike. On my end, I see
him accurately. I think I okay, and I brank him
as a late third rounder on my board. Bonnicks badly
struggled at the beginning of his career at Auburn. The
improvements you saw in the last couple of years at Oregon.
You give him, you sure, you tip your hat to him.

(12:48):
But the reasoning for that it was the offensive system
more than it was anything that bo Nicks did. The
offensive system and the players around him juiced his accuracy
would I'll get into in a second, but also with
the yak yardage helped to juice the counting SATs. But
the bigger point it inoculated him from the acute issues

(13:09):
that he had at Auburn, very very cleverly at Auburn.
The things in the gust mills On system that he
struggled with. It was sitting back in the pocket, having
after the snap to go through the progressions and then
make a decision with the bullets flying around him, and
then the thing of throwing down the field in conjunction
with all this. So sometimes you would see him get

(13:31):
smoked from behind because he'd get preoccupy, you bogged down
with the decision making going across the thing you would
see when he had to throw down the field. Because
there was more of that in the Melson offense, the
balls would flutter on him more. His less advantageous looks.
He would struggle with that.

Speaker 4 (13:47):
One of the.

Speaker 3 (13:47):
Tighter covered different stuff like that, see poor decisions, he'd
badly struggle with that. He goes to Oregon, they put
him in this wide open offense playing by the way,
last year was the I mentioned with JJ McCarthy the
strength of the defense they were playing last year with McCarthy,
it was the thirty eighth average defensive strength. With Bonix
and Oregon it was the eightieth, and Bonix was playing

(14:11):
arguably with better supporting talent as well, certainly in a
more advantageous system to accrue stats and empty calorie ones.

Speaker 4 (14:20):
With Bonix, the system.

Speaker 3 (14:22):
That he played at Oregon, it's the one where so
its spread and then it was you count the defensive
numbers beforehand, and then where you have on the side
of the field. The advantage with the numbers, it tells
you where the ball is going. That's the reason why
Bonix had the quickest time to release along with Austin
Reid in this class. Everyone knows that Austin Reid coming

(14:43):
out of WKU, that that's a gimmicky air raid offense.

Speaker 4 (14:46):
You don't hear that as much about the Bonix thing.

Speaker 3 (14:48):
People just want to be like, oh, he has good accuracy.
Does he is getting the decision prior to this snap
and then being able to throw the ball with it
six seven yards of the line of scrimmage to a
pre delineated read. Does that mean that you're you're accurate?
Especially when the cornerbacks across from Troy Franklin are going
to be accountants in two years, right after their collegiate
career is done.

Speaker 4 (15:08):
I'm not sure about that.

Speaker 3 (15:09):
And that's what it was when the ensure that downfield
accuracy improved. But again it was another thing where it
was the pre delineated thing when you knew you had
the one on one shot in an extremely advantageous matchup,
so he didn't have to make decisions after the snap.
He didn't have to read the defense. So with the
pass rush and everything like that, the mental processing with him.

(15:33):
What does this sound like something that translates to the NFL.
That's like in the NFL, do you make your decisions
prior to the snap or do you make them afterwards?
You can't build a system around that. You know, I
mentioned the yak yardage before. Obviously you will not have
to be able to leverage a guy like Troy Franklin
and Bucky Irving and stuff like that, facing off against

(15:54):
guys that are clearly inferior to them athletically different, stuff
like that.

Speaker 4 (16:00):
We have all that different stuff.

Speaker 3 (16:01):
And then in addition to all this, I think that
there are severe limitations as far as the ability with Bonex,
and that has to do with throwing downfield. He does
generate the tight spiral in the intermediate area, but there's
a reason that he doesn't go downfield more and why
he was so bad at it at Auburn and the

(16:21):
reason why in mobile he wouldn't throw down field either.
It's because he's not great at it. The accuracy waivers.
He has to throw the kitchen sink into it. The
upper body mechanics are decent with Boneckx that the lower
body could go all over the place, and naturally he
does not have an enormous arm, so he has to get.

Speaker 4 (16:38):
Everything into it.

Speaker 3 (16:40):
And because of that, even when he gets you know,
the you know, a decent throw on it, the ball
tends to go this way and that way, flutter towards
the sideline or hang up there, catch a gust to wind,
and so that that's sort of the issue with it
in the NFL having to do NFL concepts, I'm concerned
about it. Could you build an around Bonette? You know,

(17:01):
I've heard that argument. Sure you could do that, but
the problem with that is the defense.

Speaker 4 (17:05):
In the NFL.

Speaker 3 (17:06):
Of course, the athletes are better, but they you know,
if you're going to do the thing where it's like,
you know, we're gonna try to tailor it around his strengths,
it's gonna be the short and intermediate stuff, and we're
going to try not to let him sit back in
the pocket quite as much. You're taking away the explosive
element of your offense and then going up against far
superior athletes where they are as good as the skill

(17:26):
guys around there.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
He that guy is not a first round pick.

Speaker 3 (17:29):
He's also at an elevated age in addition to all
this different stuff. So like, I actually think I have
seen him totally fairly in ranking him as a third
round prospect, I would absolutely take Spencer Rattler over him,
a guy who was in a nightmare situation in a
far superior conference at South Carolina and was a better

(17:51):
recruit coming out and by the way, had a better season.
You know, like initially Recher freshman season at Oklahoma, people
were talking about him as a number one overall player
in the draft, and we're we're evoking like a pint
sized up Pat Mahomes with him. I would way rather
roll the dice on him because at least if he hits,
you have traits that that you know are more like

(18:13):
an NFL starter where it will threaten NFL defenses as.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
Opposed to with bo Nicks.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
I anicket, Yeah, I think you could.

Speaker 3 (18:24):
Yeah, And by the way, that's on the good side
of it.

Speaker 1 (18:28):
I think, okay, wow.

Speaker 3 (18:30):
I compare Bonyes to Matt corral Uh, not the off
field like types of but like just as like the
you know, the the on field stuff like yeah, coming
out like but yeah. The Kenny Pickett I think is
a decent one as well. Kenny Pickett a guy that
was very much help Bogman to your point, helped by
the circumstances around him. You at Jordan Addison there, and

(18:52):
then you also the offensive system was very clever that
last season in addition to Addison, where they did this
levels passing thing, and so they would terrify the defense
with all these short passes on the out side with
the spread thing, Addison in particular, but they had a
couple other dudes that would threaten you there, and then
they would start to go down the field a bit
when the defense would have to start bringing people up

(19:13):
because pit that year, they'd love to do the thing
of having the multiple guys out there have the receiver
block out so they would just steal free yardage from you.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
Again, very similar.

Speaker 3 (19:22):
To this thing where it was juicing pickets both his
accuracy percentage while keeping them away from the pass rush
while giving them free yardage from the yack of a
very good NFL receiver Jordan Adison in that case, Trey
Franklin and Bowe Nixons. So evoking that I think is
beyond fair.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
Yes, yeah, yeah, Well, I mean, you know, we talk
about first round QB bust and my head always goes
to Kenny Pickett because I'm a Steelers fan.

Speaker 1 (19:47):
So I wanted Malik that year, and Malik fell to
the third.

Speaker 2 (19:50):
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t all Right, FITZI, I know you have a big
running back question for Thor.

Speaker 1 (21:10):
Let's hear it.

Speaker 4 (21:11):
I do Thor.

Speaker 5 (21:12):
One of the guys I'm having trouble getting a handle
on is Jalen Right, just because I think it's because
he plays in that gimmicky Josh Hypel offense and I
never know how to assess guys.

Speaker 4 (21:23):
Coming out of that.

Speaker 5 (21:24):
But I mean, he's a speedy, big play guy coming
from Tennessee. So of course you're getting Alvin Kamerica comparisons.
You just came out with the thor five hundred. Is
Kamara your comp for Jalen Right or did you have
someone else?

Speaker 4 (21:36):
No, it's not.

Speaker 3 (21:37):
I don't like the Kamara. That one's like the helmet comp.
I feel like and and Kamara like he's more the movement,
like the East West one and it's really hard to
get your hands on, whereas Jalen Right, it's the he's
the shot put dude, like he is looking for that
crease and then he is the crazy burn.

Speaker 4 (22:00):
So I think that's the difference.

Speaker 3 (22:02):
That he is a big play guy and he does
have receiving utility. And by the way, one thing people
don't talk about him enough. He is a pretty dang
good pass blocker, which needs to be mentioned as well.
In college, he was in the initially was in Tennessee
and Hypel. They like to do the running back rotation,

(22:25):
which last year Jalen right then searched for the top
of that. But for these reasons, he got less touches
in college, which is a good thing for the NFL projection,
but he also got to see a little bit less
of him. But yeah, as far as the game, the
guy that I compare him to, like his running style,
I think you could evoked a guy like Tevin Coleman.

Speaker 4 (22:47):
You know, as that that.

Speaker 3 (22:49):
That straight line like I am looking to hit that
home run and just sprint in erase angles with the speed.
But the guy that I went with because it evoked
a little bit more than also the receiving element and
a current dude that doing stuff, Tony Pollard, I thought,
you know, hit that a little bit more similar athletic profile,

(23:10):
similar body type, and then the two way game with that.
But speaking to the speed, you know, you see seeing
the four to three speed in Indianapolis, which confirmed it.
But on the field with the GPS twenty two point
two miles per hour on one run last year, which
was the fastest of any FBS running back on any

(23:30):
run last year tracked. He was a former Feldman free
clister before he had even broken out. This is going
back several years. We knew this kid was a freak athlete,
and then last year during the breakout, thirty five carries
of ten plus yards on only one hundred and thirty
six attempts. That was more than one quarter of his attempts. Fitzy,
you mentioned the gimmicky offense, and that needs to be

(23:51):
mentioned with any Tennessee skill guy.

Speaker 4 (23:53):
Hypel is a very.

Speaker 3 (23:54):
Very clever offensive play caller, but they also do that
spread thing. And speaking of the pre delineated reads, you
know with the quarterback we were talking about this with
Henn and Hooker last year. He does the Hypol cuts
the field in half for them and everything like that.
But with the running backs this has the effect of
fitting out the box for them, which of course was

(24:15):
advantageous for Jalen Wright's game. The thing that you know,
so you have to make some situational assumptions visa VI
that because of parts in the NFL, he's going to
be facing some more guys in the box is going
to be a little bit more conventional with that. One
thing that makes me a bit more bullish about the
projection to that is he does break tackles, and like

(24:37):
I said, you also have the receiving. He has shown
aptitude with that in addition the underrated pass blocking element
of his game, so you know he's going to be
able to stay on the field for that. You get
the big play stuff, but you know as far as
the tackle breaking and the different stuff like that. Last
year his elusive rating one hundred and thirty two point

(24:58):
two absolutely darling.

Speaker 4 (25:01):
You can't put that thing on.

Speaker 3 (25:02):
Thin boxes, right, Like the thin boxes thing probably helped
that first stat I was saying with the over one
quarter the ten plus yard thing, but the elusive rating, Yeah,
that he is breaking tackles and everything like that.

Speaker 4 (25:16):
So I do like his game. I put an I'm
bullish on him.

Speaker 3 (25:21):
Five foot ten and a half two ten, so he's
at the threshold size ninety eight percentile athlete. I rank
him as RB two in this class and as early
to mid third round type prospect.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
I love it.

Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, Jalen Wright is going to be a lot of
fun to watch at the next level. Another guy that
I know you like is Marshall Lloyd, and I like
Marshall Lloyd a lot. It maybe kicks it out a
little bit, had some fumble issues, but he's got burst.
He can make a guy miss. I just love watching
him play. I will say I'm a little lower on
him than you are because of his injury history towards

(25:56):
knee in twenty twenty, miss some time last year as well.
I think he had a high school I'm remembering that correctly,
so he's been banged up a little bit. And this
question isn't so much about Marshall Lloyd, but it is
about how do you mitigate guys that have had injuries
at this position at running back coming in to the NFL.
Is it you kind of take it with a grain

(26:18):
of salt more at this position because these guys get hurt.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
It's what you know.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
Running backs get hit more than anybody else, and they're
taking those big shots too. Is it just not as
much a factor when you're grading players at this position
because it is such a brutal position and they all
get hurt eventually.

Speaker 3 (26:35):
No, it's one thousand percent context dependent right, case by case.

Speaker 4 (26:39):
For sure, you have to all data you.

Speaker 3 (26:41):
Have to bake in on every evaluation, and certainly the
medical stuff is one of those things that The thing
that I lament about, you know, doing it from my
angle of it is I get a metric ton of
data way more than I would have doing this like
twenty years ago. But the one the one black box

(27:02):
for me is is what you're hitting on is the
totality of the medical profile. Right, Like I don't get
to see behind that door.

Speaker 4 (27:10):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
And there's a couple of guys in this class where
their ranking would be different for me one thousand percent
either upper down if I knew what the team's medical personnel,
the medical personnels had set about that kid's medicals after
they had evaluated him. Uh, one of them is a
lot to a lot. Two would be my edge one

(27:31):
if I knew that that they have been you know,
the medical personnel.

Speaker 4 (27:34):
There's not the.

Speaker 3 (27:35):
Elevated uh current you know, injury reoccurring if you're.

Speaker 2 (27:39):
Not familiar with lat two story, he medically retired and
came back and then played and.

Speaker 4 (27:46):
So for sure.

Speaker 3 (27:47):
Yeah, and as far as Lloyd though, I like the
way that you set that up because you know, going
beyond the injury thing. For me, with evaluations, it's a
band of outcomes thing, and that's how I try to
see it. And and maybe that's I'm a little bit
different in that than with some other people. And I
try to do the rankings more like that as opposed

(28:08):
to like, look, you know, I do the five hundred
player big board, and you're basically in so doing, you're
making five hundred predictions on unknowable outcomes in advance, right,
And there's different ways to do that, And I think
a lot of people that are doing it, they're you know,
they they look at the they're looking at the same
stuff I am, the film and the data different stuff.

(28:29):
But a lot of people they want to have the
certainty of this is what this guy will be, right,
like this is you know whatever. I try to look
at it as the range of outcome, and then you know,
after I'm done with my workout, what is the range
of outcome? What would they be at the top, what
would they be at the bottom, and then what are
the odds in between?

Speaker 5 (28:50):
Right?

Speaker 3 (28:50):
And that's why you get so much data, is like
and you know, some of the injury stuff, or the
character stuff or or different things like this are the
things that could elevate the percentage that it looks more
towards the other end of the polarity, the bottom end
of their projection. I bring all this stuff up. Marshawn
Lloyd is a great example of this, and I tried

(29:10):
to set my right up of him up like this.

Speaker 4 (29:13):
To sort of display this for people on both sides.

Speaker 3 (29:16):
Deebro are our friend and colleague, you know, like I think,
I'm I have a really sort of bullish ish ranking
on Marshall Lloyd compared to people out there, you know,
like a solid one. I rank him RB four in
the class. Deep the last couple of months, I've had
to listen to Debra telling me I rank it too
low because because Debro is.

Speaker 4 (29:37):
Like he is the best running back in the class.

Speaker 3 (29:39):
Debro has had Marshaon Lloyd as RB one since since
the very beginning. And the thing that I talk about
in my write up is in a decade from now,
one thousand percent, you could at that time, Marshaon Lloyd,
could you could be the best running back from this class,
most rushing, you know, YadA YadA, But also uh, at
that time, marsh On thought could absolutely be outside the

(30:01):
top ten uh, you know, and you know you have
the thing with the injuries there. There's other contextual things
as well beyond that, you know, vis a vis his
game that could lead to the thing going the other way.
That the aspects of his game that I love, I
understand what Debro is seeing. I understand why he's bullish.

(30:23):
He has the make you miss. I love the slashing
element of his game, the agility, the power, the direction
change is great. And after the direction change he returns
to top gear very quickly. He runs mean, I laughed
because we're talking to him and Mobile asked him about that.

Speaker 4 (30:38):
He's like, that's what we do with Delaware.

Speaker 3 (30:40):
We have to come out and because the kids from Delaware,
he's he's like, we got to, you know, show.

Speaker 4 (30:44):
People with Delaware is about.

Speaker 3 (30:46):
He has the extremely thick lower half and you can
see that the way that that he runs, uh snaps
the arm tackles. He's a fighter. And then he has
the big play wheels with with the four to four
uh like.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
All that stuff.

Speaker 3 (31:00):
I like his suns for cutback lanes as well. But
then on the other side of it, like and sort
of the middle thing, the.

Speaker 4 (31:06):
Passing game stuff totally.

Speaker 3 (31:08):
Unknown at US both the USCS he went to, he
just wasn't used as much as a receiver. And I'm
pretty sure he's a terrible pass blocker because he was
literally never used at that even though he was used
sporadically as a receiver. You'd think if he could pass
block at all, they would have had him out there
a little bit for teams that did throw the ball,
and then the areas of concern with him going all

(31:28):
the way to the other end. He only touched the
ball three hundred and twenty five times in college. Some
of that had to do with the injury, but even
when he was healthy, they always had a second guy
with him, or he was the second guy. So it's
again like they took him off the field always on
passing down. So it's like that could be it right there.
He also would get nicked up a lot. You had
that thing and then to the big play thing. For instance,

(31:49):
last year at USC he was a big play machine.
Look at his yards per carry, look at his the
ten plus, the twenty plus.

Speaker 4 (31:55):
YadA YadA.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
But he was bouncing it outside a whole heck of
a lot on on outside design bounds concepts. He wants
to hit the home run, even though he has the
jews or to get the tough yards like you see
that on certain times where he's you know, again fighting

(32:16):
for the extra yards on those reps. I love to
see that, but on too many of them he is
looking to Okay, I'm going around the outside, YadA, YadA,
and then he turns. He could have had three four
five yards by following the concept and fighting for it,
but instead I want to try to hit another dinger.
And if that inclination follows him to the NFL, it's

(32:40):
not going to work out like it did against the
crappy defenses that the Trojans were facing last year in
the PAC twelve. So I can say that, so those
are it creates this band of outcomes for Marshawn Lloyd.
And because of that band of outcomes, again recognizing the
potential on the high end, but then also the risk
of it. That's why I ended up putting him at
RB or. Whether that upsets Debro.

Speaker 2 (33:01):
Or not, I understand that, Pat, what do he I
know you have another running back to ask Thor about here.

Speaker 5 (33:08):
Yeah, Tyrone, Tracy, I know you're a fan and you
have them well inside your top ten, and like I
watch a lot of Big Ten football, but I tried
not to expose my eyeballs to too much Purdue last
year because they were so wretched.

Speaker 4 (33:23):
So I don't know.

Speaker 5 (33:24):
Maybe for me was kind of hiding in playing sight.
But give me the elevator pitch on Tyrone Tracy and
why you like him so much.

Speaker 3 (33:30):
Tyrone Tracy wide receiver in a previous life at the
University of Iowa.

Speaker 4 (33:36):
Obviously is school near and dear to my heart, and obviously.

Speaker 1 (33:39):
They have they have wide receivers.

Speaker 3 (33:40):
It is risk averse to forward passing, and so because
of that, not only was Tyrone Tracy not used a bunch,
it seems like his development never really got there. The
athleticism was always very much apparent with Tyrone Tracy whenever
he got the ball, but he was always a super
duper raw route run and again you didn't even get

(34:02):
to see many opportunities with it because of the way
that they throw the ball. Iowa had tried to convince
him to move to running back, he was reticent to
do so well in Iowa City. He ends up transferring
to Purdue because of some of the frustrations with all
this stuff and the passing offense stuff. He goes to Purdue,
they effectively convinced him to move to running back. It
was last year, ironically, his last year in college on

(34:23):
this horrific Purdue team.

Speaker 4 (34:25):
That had nothing going for them.

Speaker 3 (34:26):
They had this new coaching staff, they had all kinds
of problems throwing the ball, and they had a different
running back that was their starting running BA. Because he's
a young kid, Devin Macaby, who's going to be around
for a couple more years. The new coaching staff, that's
how you're going to start Tyrone. Tracy broke out. They
had to get him on the field because he was
doing so good and accrued these explosive runs behind a
terrible offensive line facing good defenses. Weekend and we got

(34:50):
accruing explosive runs at a rate that he had no
business doing. I like Tracy as the athlete at Iowa,
and I saw his numbers and was sort of from
a far during the fall and stuff like that. But
when I, you know, so I turned on his tape,
I wasn't you know. I knew that the explosive runs
were coming, but the rest of it, I just expected,

(35:10):
you know, YadA YadA, Like I thought it was like
the skill set of the kicker turner guy.

Speaker 4 (35:15):
You know the rest of it.

Speaker 3 (35:16):
I hadn't seen as much a Purdue live, So when
you're watching the cut up, you know, I went in
with open eyes, not not knowing what to not, not
expecting a ton. That's where he really opened my eyes.
That so I ended up comping him to Miles Sanders.
He's I put in my right up that he's a bouncy,
juiced up wide based slasher with better vision and instincts

(35:38):
than expected runs with tempo as a knack for timing
his cutbacks to free himself into open grass, and then
that's when the four four eight wheels come into play.
That is why he was accruing all those explosive runs.
So even when he's in the traffic like he does
the cutbacks, they're they're very violent. So even you know,
it's like the guy's like, oh, I got you dead

(35:58):
to rights, and then he does like the thing.

Speaker 4 (36:00):
He's like, no, you don't, and then you know, so
he can get out really quick.

Speaker 3 (36:04):
And when he gets out into the second level, it's
the same thing where there can be multiple guys around
him and all of a sudden he does the frogger thing,
and it's like, oh, there's nobody in front of him
now and bye bye. And so that's when he becomes
the real problem because now he can run as fast
as the defensive backs. And he also, you know again
at the size at five eleven two o nine, he

(36:26):
has decent size and he will run through the arm
tackles as well. The elusive rating for him was also
incredible last year, so you have all that different stuff.
Last year, the elusive ratings is one hundred and sixty
three point five, speaking of eye popping four point four
four yards after contact per attempt last year. Both of those,
by the way, were the tops of my top thirty

(36:47):
ranked running backs on my board. You're talking about a
guy that just started playing running back, so I think
the potential is there even at the elevated age. He
was in college for six years, so I think some
people may negate him because of that. But realize that
what he was doing last year, and when you turn
on the tape and realize that that that pre team
was so dead end, what he was doing behind that

(37:08):
offensive line against the defensive fronts that he was facing,
you have to realize the context of it makes it
even more impressive projecting it to that new position. He's
early on the developmental curve with it. You're only looking
with running backs with me for their value during their
rookie contract, because the way that I see it, I
would never give a running back of second contract anyway.

(37:28):
I think Tyrone Tracy is going to give you a
pretty dang good amount of value for the draft lot
he is going to go in, you know, during those
first five years of his career. The other thing is
he is going to be a very good kick returner,
I believe with those new rules, because of that skill
set he has of now you see me, now you

(37:48):
don't that violent cutover and then hit the jet thing.
So those are and prettyviews him meant the return of
last year he took one to the house, I think
he's going to be taking a couple of the house
in the NFL as well.

Speaker 2 (37:57):
I in my mock, I put him on Washington and
I would love to see him fit there with Cliff Kingsbury,
you know, Austin Eckler.

Speaker 1 (38:05):
How much time does he have left? Who knows?

Speaker 2 (38:08):
But I love Ryan Robinson, but I think Tyrone Tracy
would fit better in Washington. I know Fitz has a
question about wide receivers here, but before we get to that.
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(39:21):
about these top three guys here.

Speaker 5 (39:23):
Yeah, Thor basically, just how do you order the big
three Marvin Harrison, Junior, Molik, Neighbors, Roma Dunza And how
close together are these guys for you? Are there any
significant gaps between any of them?

Speaker 2 (39:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (39:37):
So look all three of them.

Speaker 3 (39:40):
You like a lot of the receiving class over the
last decade, All three of those guys, A lot of
those classes. They would have been wide receiver ones of them.
Last year at DUNESA could have come out in that
class and he would have we know that as he
would have been during that run of the receivers that
went in the twenties right away. But that was that
version of Dunes. He got way way he took the

(40:01):
big time leap this year. He easily he would have
gotten way up in last year's guys. He would have
been top ten pick this year. So the receivers this year,
I got Harrison wide receiver one, number four overall on
my board. I got Neighbors wide receiver two, number five
overall on my board, and I have but Dunes say
wide receiver three at number seven overall on my board,
and I like the prospects here in the top ten

(40:25):
twelve fifteen of this draft.

Speaker 4 (40:27):
That is how good those top three guys are.

Speaker 3 (40:30):
The film, the profiles that the analytics on them, like
anything that you want to look at with those guys
are all you can compare them against the top receiving
prospects that have come out. Marvin Harrison, though you have
to put him in my opinion wide receiver one, even
though Neighbors is probably maybe more fun to watch, just

(40:54):
because he's so unique in the way that he plays
and the movement scales and the way that he can
sometimes embarrassed defensive backs who just because he can discombobulate
them and then he could tie them into knots like
a cartoon that sunds fun. But Harrison with the fully
fleshed out game in that physical package, which I think

(41:18):
about as NFL scouts having built in Madden, you know,
the creative player. And then the kid was tutored by
one of the tacticians at the position that we have
ever seen. His father only became a Hall of Famer
because of the attention to detail, to the finer points,
and you see that all over Mervin Junior's game. And

(41:41):
the point I made about Mervin Junior in my write
up is a lot of times when we see these
guys with the ridiculous physical dimensions at that position, that
are so physically gifted, you do not see the refinement
of those aspects. The technique, the attention to detail, the
release package is the efficiency of footwork into an out

(42:04):
of route breaks, the care that they take to put
doubt into the head of the defensive backs, how quickly
they decipher the coverage's intentions and then they know what
to do immediately. That you do with Marvin Harrison Junior,
it's just by when he was a kid, Marvin Seedier,

(42:24):
it was in the NFL and they were going over all.

Speaker 4 (42:27):
This different stuff.

Speaker 3 (42:28):
He got an education that no other receiving prospect you wouldn't.

Speaker 4 (42:33):
Be able to pay for something like that.

Speaker 2 (42:35):
You know.

Speaker 3 (42:35):
It was like the book of secrets that this kid
was just given from an early age. It just so
happened that he got all the physical gifts that his
father could only dream about, including the long arms and
the ball scales. Marvin Junior is maniacal about this modified
drugs machine as well. He doesn't drop balls as well,
wins at all three levels. You single coverage, he was

(42:58):
one hundred percentile receiving grade that last season or past
couple years. I'm sorry, but then double teams as well
anecdotally destroys them as well. But Matt Harmon, if you
want to go by the data, reception perception is a
tremendous sight. Matt does a great job. Matt Harmon said
that during his time charting the receivers that no receiver

(43:19):
he had ever charted had been double teamed as much
by the opposition as Marvin Harrison Junior and Marvin Harrison Junior,
in addition to that, smashed the success rate record for
charting against double coverage. So it's just a different sort
of a thing. That's why you had to put him there.
But Neighbors is, in his own way, is a different

(43:39):
sort of a thing with the movement and the different
and being able to win at the all three levels,
but also the y that you get from.

Speaker 4 (43:45):
And stuff like that.

Speaker 1 (43:45):
Yeah, speed with everything.

Speaker 3 (43:47):
So electricity with Neighbors, it's all about a like I
call them the Nikola Tessel of receivers because it's just
inexhaustible electricity with mister neighbors man, you go ahead.

Speaker 5 (44:00):
It is just an amazing class and we're gonna have
a couple of pretty good day two guys, Ricky Pearsall
and Roman Wilson. I know you like both of them
quick overview of their games.

Speaker 3 (44:12):
Yeah. With with Peersaw, he's a very very good route runner,
and you saw this going back to Arizona State when
he was the wide receiver for Jayden Daniels going to
go in the top three in this one. And then
everyone transferred out of Arizona State after twenty twenty one
because there was a scandal with with herm Edwards, and
Pearsall ended up at Florida where then he immediately became

(44:34):
the wide receiver one for Anthony Richardson and then subsequently
Graham Mirth. But the thing that led the foot for
Pearsaw firstly was the route running. And then Pearsall has
the most ridiculous set of hands on him that you'll see.

Speaker 2 (44:49):
The unbelievable catches, unbelievable, so many of them, unbelieva.

Speaker 3 (44:53):
Like you know, it goes without saying that, you know,
like the easy stuff, he doesn't flub that, but the
highlight reel catch you where and most people that are
listening as have probably seen him. But if you haven't,
look up Ricky Pearsow's highlight reel catches and in particular
the catch against Charlotte, which is outside of the Justin
Jefferson and the Odell Beckham and it might even be

(45:13):
you could you can put it on there because he
also got crush on it as well and somehow held
onto the ball.

Speaker 4 (45:21):
It defied everything that you think you understand about it.

Speaker 1 (45:24):
It's the best I've ever seen. But Piersall is so close.

Speaker 3 (45:28):
Yeah, so you have the hands and crazy crazy hands.
And then in addition to all that stuff, he went
to the senior ball. He was great there, proved the
concept of all that stuff. And then the athletic testing
at the combine that was the real surprise. How well
he tested. He jumped out of the building the forty

(45:48):
was great. Everything like test. What is a ninety nine
percentile athlete. I don't know what question you could have
about Ricky Piersall at this time, outside of the viability
of the accuracy of the quarterbacks he played with the
last three years. That's that's really about it. Ricky Piersov
for me, I put him as a late first round pick.
I expect him in the draft to probably go very

(46:10):
early on Friday, but I for me a late first
rounder clause.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
All right, let's fight. Thor, you've got You've got Xavier
Worthy at seven. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna hate that.
There's so many good wide receivers in this class. But
you have my boy Ad and I Mitchell at thirteen.
I see him in a lot of mocks go uh,
you know, to the Bills a lot late in the

(46:38):
first or somewhere early in the second.

Speaker 1 (46:41):
Him and Worthy kind of flip.

Speaker 5 (46:42):
I mean, Adam Adam Schefter thinks he's gonna be a
first rounder. Like he he thinks he's a solid first rounder.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
There's a lot and I know he's he's a tough
nut to crack here because you know, there is such
good and there's some bad in there as well. He's
had some injuries as well. He's a little slight, so
I understand the negatives. You got him in a third
round pick, Thor, I mean, come on, baby, Yeah, what

(47:12):
can I do to get you to raise my guy?

Speaker 1 (47:14):
Ad and I here? Anything?

Speaker 4 (47:16):
Nothing that That's how I see him. You know, my
draft rankings.

Speaker 3 (47:21):
They're just my opinion I have to do in the
world now, predictions of where they're going to go in
the draft. I see him as the inverse of most people,
and I think that a team would be making a
mistake of taking him in the first round. It's funny
the betting market has not reacted as strong to a
guy that they've dropped a draft slot prop on that

(47:41):
I can remember. In recent years, they dropped eighty metrol
at sixteen and a half within forty eight hours it
had been bet up to twenty seven and a half.
You do not see movement like that in the market.

Speaker 4 (47:53):
Insane.

Speaker 3 (47:55):
We'll end up seeing if he does go at the
end of the first round or if he slips into
the second. Of course he's gonna go higher than I
have him. I mean, I run four to three in
an enormous package. If I was a GM, I would
not take him until the third round, especially in this
this receiving class. I don't I do not see the
potential that other people see with him. Like the narrative

(48:17):
that you hear with with ad It's like they try
to explain away the lack of production, be inconsistency and
everything throughout his entire career, right, and and and the
narrative is all around the physical package. Obviously, he is big.
He had the nine to nine ras, he has the
four to three wheels, and then you see the highlight.

(48:37):
The highlight reel catches well and Bogman, you'll appreciate this.
As a baseball officionado, what Ady Mitchell is the comp
for him, it's it's Dave Kingman. It's it's either you
get a dinger or you get way more often you
get strikeouts. It's the downfield thing that when he has
a big game, which last year he had three of them,

(48:58):
as you know as a Texas and three games where
we went over one hundred yards. Two of those times
I believe it was over one forty. In the other
ones I was at eight or so where it was
under thirty. It's either you and the games where it
was over thee hundred, and particularly the two where it
was over one forty. It's all because it's the downfield
the big it's because he's getting a couple of dingers

(49:19):
in a game. He doesn't give you any efficiency whatsoever,
which is for a couple of different reasons. Number One,
he is disinterested on route concepts that go the other way.
You know, that's something that you know, people is a
popular one that has come up recently. But that's absolutely true.
But the other thing is he does not change directions
very well. He also does not seem like a guy

(49:39):
who has an attention for detail beyond that. But like
I'm just talking about the athletic profile. It is the
north south thing, you know, in particular, but the loafing thing,
it doesn't project well as a guy that at the
next level is going to start doing the attention to
detail of the route running nuance, it will start to
give you the efficiency start throwing at the ball that away.

(50:01):
The other thing is with the deep speed thing, and
I think this is why you don't get more big
plays out of Ady Mitchell in more games. You did
have the four was it three to three or whatever
at the combine, take a look at the ten yard
split on that. It's very interesting. His ten yard split
was the same as receivers that were running in the
four fives. It's an all time build up speed, dude.

(50:22):
So when he you know, gets that runway in front
of him, once he gets going, yes, he's as fast
as anybody, and you have to respect that because he
will make the play downfield and that's when get those
big flashy plays that everybody likes different stuff like that.

Speaker 4 (50:35):
But that's it takes a little bit, right, Like so
this game, that's the thing.

Speaker 3 (50:42):
The one thing I'll give him, Like he gives you
a little bit of value just from the fact that
the defense has to keep the safety high on that side,
which Bogman, I think you know this too from watching
Texas that helped out mister Worthy, that helped out at Standars,
that helped out mister Whittington. I will give him the
benefit of that, you know, say that there is a
value to that. I see him as you know, getting

(51:03):
inverted from other people where they're like, oh he has this,
uh you know, he could be a superstar wide receiver
one in the NFL.

Speaker 4 (51:09):
You just off your shoulder some risk. I don't think so.

Speaker 3 (51:12):
For me, he is low ceiling, high floor. He is
your prototypical pop the top wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (51:18):
Two.

Speaker 3 (51:19):
Who will it's a road to nowhere thinking that that
guy will become an NFL superstar wide receiver.

Speaker 2 (51:24):
Is there a spot that he can land that you
think will maximize his potential?

Speaker 3 (51:30):
Well, like there's a like I just think he's the
wide receiver two guys, so like anyone that needs the
downtown fella of the you know, like for instance, the Bills,
you know it didn't gave Davis left whatever, they're looking
for receivers if they don't get one early on in
the I would advocate strongly that the Bills do not
use a first round pick on Adie Mitchell.

Speaker 4 (51:50):
There's several receivers that I would prefer instead.

Speaker 3 (51:52):
But like if Aidie Mitchell does drop and there are
more uh personality and he left Georgia and I'm I'm
not going to get into all that, and Bob McGinn's
peace had a thing with the Scout saying stuff that, uh,
there's other stuff. I'm not going to get in all
that stuff. But if he ends up falling for other
stuff where it's like deeper whatever, and and some teams

(52:13):
feel like you get him on a little bit of
a discomment, maybe the Bills, you know, go a different
way in the first that could be a team he
could you know that thing, maybe the Chiefs if he
falls further on again, for me, I I can't use
a first round pick on a guy like that, with
that kind of a profile less than two yards per
out run. I believe every single college season, Georgia did
not seem overly upset when Nadie Metro walked out the door.

Speaker 1 (52:37):
Georgie had a bunch of superstars.

Speaker 3 (52:39):
I mean, I'm not gonna and Marcus Rose to me,
Jack Saint did, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (52:44):
It is Yeah, Lad McConaughey and Brock Bowers. They're not good, right,
So uh.

Speaker 4 (52:49):
Look, you couldn't use a six to two guy with that.

Speaker 2 (52:52):
I'm going to my Texas guy. Of course here one
seven year per out run. Maybe he's over rated, But
I do think that a lot of the stuff is teachable.
The one thing that I'll give you, it's.

Speaker 3 (53:05):
Change your direction teachable is full effort on every snap teachable.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
Yes, the full effort is the hands light frame is well.
I mean, if you want to you know, when you
get to the next level and you realize you have
to do everything you can to make it, you either
do or you don't. So it's either you're done real
quick or you're maxing out real quick. It's one of
the two. So NFL we know Jerry Glandville told us

(53:29):
it stands for not for long. If you ain't trying
your hardest here, we all know that. And if you
guys have got any dynasty drafts on the horizon or
want to see how the latest free agency moves in
the NFL draft affect fantasy football drafts, our mock draft
simulator tool is open at Fantasypros dot com slash simulator.
It's a fast and free way to practice for any

(53:51):
kind of draft, including dynasty, startup drafts, and rookie drafts.
Again that is Fantasypros dot Com slash simulator. I gotta
know wide receiver one here for you thor you're high
on like get Baker, Malik Washington, you'll low on Walker
and Corley. And this this question is less about the

(54:12):
prospects themselves, and it's more about landing spot in the
NFL draft. How much for fantasy purposes, not for obviously
you've done your ranking. These are the like you've said before,
these are the way you see see the guys. This
is where you would draft them all the way down.
But when we get to landing spots, when we're looking

(54:33):
for fantasy how important is it for that? Because this
is a deep class. You mentioned it before, you know,
ad Ni Mitchell is thirteen. I know you don't like him,
but he wouldn't wouldn't have been thirteen last year. It
would have been like six or something, you know, because
last year's class is not what this year's class. Sure,
but but with a class this big, how much is
landing spot going to affect guys? You know in this

(54:57):
range in that kind of second third, fourth tier of
these wide receiver they're still really good, but they're going
in the fourth, They're going in the fifth because this
class is deep.

Speaker 3 (55:07):
It's way more important on the other side of it
than I think people give credit for it.

Speaker 4 (55:13):
You know, it's it's it's one of those things.

Speaker 3 (55:14):
Bog mean, you'll appreciate this again as a basebook I
talked to a buddy of mine that did the chipped
in with the Baseball Perspective top one on one prospects.
You see at the end of that guy that they
do years ago about this when we were talking about
his job against my job, and you know, like it's
talking about like you know, I was like, man, you
your job super duper hard, Like I can't imagine, you know,

(55:37):
like how difficult that is, Like you know, watching kids
from the Dominican or like high school kids and then
you know, like lower levels of the miners and then
having to sort of stack the pority like like with that, yeah,
like and project them out years and years and years,
and he goes, bro, your your job's way harder, he goes,
Baseball is a individual sport, masquerading is a team sport,
whereas football, you cannot unspool one person from the other

(56:00):
on all these different play by play basis, And it's
it's so true. And as far as the landing spots go,
it's it's all over the place, right, Like you need
to find a spot where you can even get on
the field. Then you need to find a coach that
will use you correctly, that knows your game. In addition
to that, so you have all that different stuff.

Speaker 2 (56:18):
You know what that the you're drafted by one coach
and he gets fired in the next year, you have
a whole other coach who didn't draft you and is
not beholden to you in your draft capital.

Speaker 3 (56:28):
So yeah, yeah, you know, and uh uh, you know,
any of these different guys, like your game can play
up absolutely you find that perfect situation.

Speaker 4 (56:39):
I mean, like Adie Mitchell, right, like we were just
talking about him.

Speaker 3 (56:42):
Obviously I'm lower on him than most, but like, let's
say that he goes to let's say the Chiefs, right, yeah,
now you were in. Adie Mitchell is in the best
situation he ever could have hoped for. They have the
the intermediate guys already, and you have one of the
better downfield passers that we have, or the Buffalo Bills
with a bazooka armed dude on a team that needs

(57:04):
to replace their downfield guy, and Adie Mitchell like coming
out like I see him uh more or better than
I saw Gabe Davis coming out of of UCF for instance.

Speaker 5 (57:16):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (57:17):
And these guys are the same, uh, the the guys
that you tossed out. They're guys that have strengths and
weaknesses and depending on you know, the opportunity there for them,
and then the way that the coaches use them. Like
Legette is the uh in very interesting dimensions. He's six one,
two twenty one. He also has the nine to nine ras.

(57:37):
He's also the north South guy where the thing that
you're uh, you question, it's the the east west stuff
and then the entire new nuance of it. But what
I really like, it's it's that he can take the
fastball of of the north south and then he he's
really good at slamming on the breaks and coming back
uh and slaming on the break gives them enough at

(57:58):
the route break where because of that, the change of
directions not incredible with him, but he at least can
can stop real quick based on how fast he's moving
at his size is like the one thing he's like
good at sort of with that, and he's got pretty
good ball skills as well. If you use that guy correctly.
If you try to overextend him, that's where you might

(58:21):
get into issues. But if you use that guy correctly
as your wide receiver too, you have another guy on
the other side where the defense has to give their
coverage resources, and now Xavier Legett can just do the
stuff that he is good at occasionally go downtown.

Speaker 4 (58:33):
Otherwise he's going to do the comeback thing now now
he's good.

Speaker 3 (58:37):
Javon Baker, I think, is probably the best example of
this of needs to find the right situation, both because
of the game but also because of his disposition. Javon
Baker ardently believes no BS that he is the best
wide receiver in this class and he does not understand
why other people don't see it his way, and he

(58:58):
plays like that, like the upset Oklahoma this past.

Speaker 4 (59:02):
Year, and.

Speaker 3 (59:04):
Yvon Baker got a lot of bs for he had
a long touchdown, He blew a kiss at the Oklahoma sideline.

Speaker 4 (59:10):
He got a lot of crap for that. He got
chewed up by the coaches.

Speaker 3 (59:12):
A lot of people have brought this up, and you know,
in conjunction with the personal what they don't bring up
is that was right before halftime responding to it in
Oklahoma touchdown. It allowed UCF to stay in that game.
UCF was in it until the very end. They would
have forced overtime if they had gotten a two point
conversion at the end, and the reason was because John
Javon Baker. He was going off in that game. So

(59:33):
you you saw different stuff like that.

Speaker 4 (59:35):
But he is that.

Speaker 3 (59:38):
Elpha type Stephan Diggs type personality and Stefan digs another.
He fell down the board, but he found the correct
situation and it played up right. And then when it's
playing up no one talks about Stephan Diggs his personality.
When things aren't going as well, where they all bring
up his personality, it will be the same thing with
Javon Baker. If he gets into a bad situation right away,

(59:59):
that that's where his career doesn't go as well. If
he gets into the right one, it doesn't matter where
he gets drafted. It could be it could be the
same thing him falling down like Stefan Diggs did. But
if he gets into the right situation, that is where
he could potentially become not only a guy that contributes
to an offense, but a guy that could be a
star at the NFL level. And no one's going to
talk about his personality at that point.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
Yeah, I mean it, Well, I was just gonna say
it was kind of like, you know, the helmet scouting,
but Gave Davis he reminds me so much of Gabe Davis,
but he catches the ball.

Speaker 1 (01:00:30):
That's the difference, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
Like, Gave Davis can get open, but he only caught
the ball against my Steelers for those two ninety yard touchdowns, right, Like,
so it's it's Javon Bakers. Gave Davis that could catch
probably way better. I'm very simplifying it and doing the
helmet scout scouting deal, but I definitely see him as
a fun, big play type of guy, and I kind

(01:00:52):
of want to see him in New England just to
give them some speed. For God's sake. You know they're
gonna have a new QB too. Just I mean they can't.
You can't go with Juju and kJ Osborne and uh,
you know Pop Doug like all the slowest wide receivers
in the NFL. You got to give that team some speed.
So I want to see him in many places. But
I just want to see New England get some speed.
So sorry, fits he go ahead.

Speaker 4 (01:01:12):
No, I was just gonna say thor.

Speaker 5 (01:01:14):
I mean, Bogman just laid out such an interesting Star
Wars canteena of receivers there with Xavier Legatt, Malik Washington.
Those guys are like one year wonders h Baker, who
you just talked about, tes Walker, who's got this this
dreamy sized speed combo but super raw, Malachi Corley, the
crazy after the catch guy. I know Bogs has to

(01:01:35):
sneak in a tight end question. So I'm just gonna
limit you to a name here. But if all those
guys hit like their top one percentile outcomes and they
all just totally maximize their ability, who has the best
career of those guys, I love, love this question.

Speaker 4 (01:01:51):
I'll say Javon Baker.

Speaker 5 (01:01:53):
Fair the Baker's your man. I had a feeling that
was gonna be the answer. I totally get it.

Speaker 2 (01:01:58):
He's a stud. He's going to be so much fun.
So my last sight end question, we all know Bowers
is unbelievable. He's you know, I keep seeing these you
know where he slips to Cincinnati at eighteen. I'm like,
he is not faring to Cincinnati. What are we talking about?
I think he goes in the top ten, but if not,
he's definitely going in the top fifteen. I don't think

(01:02:21):
he slips past Indianapolis at fifteen. So we all know
about Brock Bowers. I don't really want to talk about
Brock Bowers. Let's talk about sanat in all, who you
have ahead of my guy JT. Sanders And I'm not
going to fight for my Texas guy here, but I
do want to know, you know, because tight end is
such a different position when you're looking at it based

(01:02:41):
on you know, an overall prospect, because Tip Briman's not
going to be a fantasy option. You know, he's a
blocking tight end, So you know, how would you rank
some of these tight ends for fantasy. You know, we
know Bowers is number one, but if it was for
fantasy purposes only, obviously what we talked about before with
landing spot is going to make all of the difference here.

(01:03:01):
But just in receiving skills and what they can do
with the ball in their hands, how do you rate
them just on receiving skills for fantasy purposes coming up?

Speaker 1 (01:03:10):
Like maybe your top three or four.

Speaker 3 (01:03:12):
Yeah, the sleeper for sure for me for fantasy would
be Eric Gaul because if he is this is another
you know, I mentioned him with the black box with
the hell stuff. I just don't I don't care about
the ACL from last year. That's with the modern technology,
he's gonna be fine from that. It's the back thing
from the year before that we don't know about.

Speaker 2 (01:03:33):
It.

Speaker 3 (01:03:33):
Seems like there was some disagreement about whether he should
even have that and whether he could keep playing that season,
So that makes me And then he was back immediately
for the next season at Iowa and played awesome.

Speaker 4 (01:03:43):
So it's like.

Speaker 3 (01:03:46):
They don't tell us right, Like I didn't stay at
a holiday and express last night either, So I don't know.
Opinions want to be on that. But because of all
that stuff, you know, anyway, the situational I put him
tight end three and if I knew that on my board,
and if I knew that again, like if he didn't
have if the team's medical personnels were comfortable with the back,

(01:04:08):
that he would have been tight end two on my board.
The receiving utility with him is the thing that carries
the day, and that's what you've seen with him. It
was at Michigan that two years before that at tight
End Factory, and then last year he was replacing. He
was going into the Sam Laporta role before he ends
up tearing the ACL and was doing very well at
that up until that point. So sort of star cross,

(01:04:31):
we thought he was going to go back to campus.
He decided he would enter the draft, which is why
stock is sort of up in the air and we
don't know some of that Souff, but he would be
the sleeper guy for guys to keep track up Sanders
and Sanders is interesting. Sarkeshian used him so well, and
the thing with Sanders is not an inline guy. At

(01:04:51):
the next level, he's got to be the big slot
lax play power a little bit smaller I compare him
to Gerald Everett. The thing that I liked about the
usage that Sarkishan did with him, it's the thing that
is good about he tested. Disappointing of course Jatavian, but
the thing that he tested well with the two things
it was the speed and this play right. The other

(01:05:13):
stuff is what he struggled with. But it wasn't a
huge surprise when you go back to his film because
the straight line stuff down the steam and then the
other thing that Sarkishan did well with using the other
receivers we were talking about Adi Mitchell, but also worthy
terrified defenses. You were able to scheme Sanders into situations

(01:05:33):
where viewers could hit him on the hands in space
against ancillary coverage guys. That was the other time where
Sanders was dangerous because he gets straight up and down
in the field. He starts gobbling up yack real quick.
He's not going to break tackles, and certainly he didn't
at college. You're not going to at the NFL level,
but boyk start gobbling up the yak real quick when
he gets north and south. Because the speed thing is

(01:05:55):
is the thing with him. You if he has a
clever offensive play caller in a good sitution, you know.
Speaking to that with the receiving the fantasy stuff, that's
where he plays up. Senate's just a good a heck
of a player all all the way around. I comped
him to Samuel Porte. You guys know that I loved
him last process. He is going to be fantasy relevant.
Those would be the guys that I would toss out

(01:06:16):
there at the top.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:06:17):
The other guys for fantasy aren't the best. Like aj Barner.
I love as a NFL prospect because of the value
he brings to an NFL offense. I think he's going
to start for a long time. But he black speed
he is, you know, so in the receiving game, it's
just the check down type stuff. So for fantasy guys,
I would look elsewhere at that Cad Stover is he
has some is some element of intrigue. There's as far

(01:06:41):
as that goes, like that's the foot that he leads with.
He has very good hands. Kids, Over's got awesome hands
and he will break some tackles after. I love his
uh he tries to bring it'd.

Speaker 2 (01:06:52):
Be the JJ McCarthy of tight ends. Because Ohio State,
you have so many good whiteouts. You don't need to
throw the tight end.

Speaker 3 (01:06:57):
He tries to break people's chittens too, and he like
sometimes does a berserker thing. But but stover, he's another intro.
And and then the one other dude that I toss out, uh,
that intriguing that will be a potential sleeper at the
next alve is Dalan Holker. People are going to overlook
him because he's small, he's old, and he's not fast. Uh,

(01:07:18):
but like what he is is the the the h
back dude that will shift around. Do you guys remember
both Skaife, Well, of course I remember, yeah going back,
but Chris yeah or Chris Cooley is yeah, I like
that call out. Dalen Holker has h so he he

(01:07:38):
suffers physically from that stuff, being on the smaller side
and then lacking the speed. He has one genetic quirk
though that very much helps his game that nobody talks about.
He has ludicrously long arms. And the reason this is
so important to his evaluation is he has good hands
and good ball skills and all he's going to bring

(01:08:01):
you is that utility that I mean, that's what he is.
He ain't gonna block for you, You're not putting him
in line. So the fact that he has this long
catch radius and he is the clear guy that goes
out fully since and attacks the ball, it has this
effect of making him, you know, along the route when
he's out in space, bigger than he is, you know
in terms of that right, Like he's gonna go out

(01:08:21):
and get the ball. So it makes him harder for
the other guy to come around, slap the thing away
and make a play on it.

Speaker 1 (01:08:27):
I think Holker motor guy too. Is any Hulker.

Speaker 4 (01:08:31):
Oh it plays very hard.

Speaker 3 (01:08:32):
Yeah, like a blue guy, you know type, like you're
going to shift them around and do different stuff like that.
And he can occasionally pick a guy off in space.
Not the best blocker, but this space thing, you know,
this mart defenders. But for fantasy guys, especially in PPR,
he's not going to give you the explosive stuff. But
very much like both Scafe who caught forty forty five
balls a season for a little bit there. That's what

(01:08:55):
I see with Hulker if he finds a nice spot
the two guys. Lastly that I would shy away from
from fantasy For people out there that you have been
told by uh maybe other folks have been very high,
and you might have heard a lot about them because
they're test of profiles. I don't like THEO Johnson from
Penn State, who tested as one of the great testing
tight ends that we've ever seen six six two fifty

(01:09:16):
nine ninety nine percent athlete. I comp him to Albert
Oh from Zoo who came reminds me so much of
Albert Oh coming out.

Speaker 2 (01:09:24):
Another guy we all missed on too. We were excited
about that profile and he didn't do anything.

Speaker 4 (01:09:30):
I don't want to do my own horn. I was
right about Albert Oh, and you were yeah, and Drew
Locke as well.

Speaker 3 (01:09:35):
Coming out because I you know, I watched a lot
of them with Zoo team and Alberto it was all
the straight line thing. If THEO Johnson ends up being
a better receiver in the NFL, or let me put
it this way, the way I would advocate for his
NFL offensive coordinator, only North South stuff. And at Penn
State they had the most risk of birth passing offense
of all time.

Speaker 4 (01:09:55):
Guys.

Speaker 3 (01:09:56):
Drew Alar appears to be a bust and then they're
they're trying to use a kickle. They would do all
these short throws to THEO and he wasn't like he
caught some of those balls.

Speaker 4 (01:10:05):
You know, it's just the very short sort of stuff.

Speaker 3 (01:10:07):
But the weird thing is is for this guy who's
enormous and has the great profile, I'll give him the
benefit of the doubt of that of like, you know, sure,
you know seams stretcher potentially at the next level, he
didn't get to do that because they don't let a
lot of throw down field er do anything like that.
So sure, you know theoretically, but it's like, why did
Johnson never break any tackles in college even though he
got the opportunity he got all these balls, Like he

(01:10:29):
wasn't good after the jest, he didn't break the backles,
like he didn't do the Sanders thing of like even
the running after the catch like in space like there
really isn't And he's a horrific blocker as well. He
was a late bloomer guy because he THEO. Johnson is
from Canada and he was like a zero. He like
he wasn't gonna go to college till before his senior

(01:10:51):
year blows up at a camp, you know, because the
very much like his process this year, the athletic testing
that's when he got onto the recruiting deal and then
you know, people started offering him whatever. I'm concerned about
the profile because of all these different things needs to
be used differently, for sure, but I would shy away
from him. The other dude that I would definitely shy

(01:11:12):
away from is Jared Wiley, that some people put very high.
Was a fifth year guy, did absolutely nothing his first
four years at TCU on teams that were way better.

Speaker 4 (01:11:21):
This past year on a dumpster fire.

Speaker 3 (01:11:23):
TCU team, he caught some balls, and some people are
excited about that based on that and the fact that
he is six six two forty nine with a ninety
third percentile athletic score, so some people will now put
him as a top five tight end in the rankings,
and then fantasy players get excited about that. You see
the catches, you see that that sort of stuff. There's
a couple issues with him. He's an even worse blocker

(01:11:44):
than THEO Johnson is. I don't know if I've seen
a worse block like a more disinterested one just doesn't
absolutely care about it. And then take a look at
the profile of those catches that he had last year
and that dumpster fire TCU team. They were all very
short dump off stuff. They never sent him downfield whatsoever.
Even THEO Johnson got sent down field a little bit

(01:12:05):
more than Wiley, and THEO Johnson had multiple years of it.

Speaker 4 (01:12:09):
Wiley it was just the one year.

Speaker 3 (01:12:11):
All these stuff within five yards or a chunk of
it was even behind the line of scrimmage.

Speaker 4 (01:12:17):
It was manufactured touch stuff.

Speaker 3 (01:12:20):
And by the way, Wiley broke like no tackles what like,
even less than THEO Johnson deck. So it's like a
station to station manufactured touch tight end. You can't do
stuff with them downfield. Categorically cannot block the thing with
him of the athletic profile and the catches, it's irrelevant.
They're not going to lead to yards at the next level.

(01:12:42):
There is no proof of concept that he can run routes.
And I'll just tell you right now, he ain't blocking
even a Twitter troll going forward.

Speaker 1 (01:12:52):
I love it. I love it, and Thor and we
know you're busy.

Speaker 2 (01:12:56):
You're fresh off of an appearance with Colin Cowherd night,
so we appreciate you jumping on the show and talking
some prospects with us.

Speaker 1 (01:13:06):
And thora is a very very busy man.

Speaker 2 (01:13:07):
But please check out his top five hundred on Fantasy
Pros and you can find him on the Twitter at
thor Ku. I know you have way more shows to do,
so please enjoy the process here. The big work is done.
It's all cruising and talking now, so enjoy it and
we will see you on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel
for the NFL Draft this week.

Speaker 1 (01:13:29):
So appreciate you coming on.

Speaker 2 (01:13:31):
And remember you can follow FITZI and I at fits
Underscore FF and myself at Bogman Sports and we will
see you guys next week. Take it easy, everybody. Actually,
we won't see you next week. We will be off
because of the draft, so we will be back in
two weeks, so we will see you. See you guys, then,
take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
Pros Dynasty Football podcast. If you love the show, the
best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive

(01:13:53):
review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, follow us on x,
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}NFL Draft Rookie Rundown: Why Bo Nix is NOT a First-Round Prospect (Ep. 143)

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NFL Draft Rookie Rundown: Why Bo Nix is NOT a First-Round Prospect (Ep. 143)

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