6 Must-Start Players for Week 11 | The Primer (Ep. 1841) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
It's Week eleven of the NFL season, and if your
teams are looking anything like mine, you could use some help.
So pull up a stool for the primer episode, where
we'll give you our top six fantasy football sleeper starts
with matchups to exploit. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock and
heading into the weekend alongside a man who has already started,

(00:22):
the Clint Kobiak to New York Giants petition campaign manager
Derek Brown Debro, how are you after a busy week
out there on the trail, oh, man?

Speaker 2 (00:32):
I mean, it's all the things and stuff this time
of year. It's crunch time, dude. We've got people. The
injuries are still a huge part of the landscape, as
well as all these matchups and DP plays. Man, we
got a lot of really good options this week where
some players might still be out on the waiver wire
in some leagues, especially shower leagues, and there's some upside
to be had for all these plays.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
Absolutely, this is one of my favorite episodes of the
week to record because alongside with you, I feel like
I gained some knowledge and every single week. I'm trying
to scrap together lives with all the injury bites that
we've taken this year, and so I'm excited to see
what you have for us today. And before we jump in,
shout out to all our friends joining us either on
the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. Thank

(01:12):
you so much for all sports this season. It's been wonderful.
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(01:32):
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(01:53):
watching on YouTube, subscribe turn on the notification so you
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claim your prize if you are that one lucky winner.
And Derek, speaking of being lucky, you're thinking you're gonna
get lucky out there with a quarterback has been I've
been up and down this season, but he's in a
matchup against Kansas City Chiefs that you.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Like, Yeah, the Caleb Williams of Denver. Yeah, And I
think it's gonna be more of a boom game this
week and people could be surprised by that considering looking
at bow Knicks is going to face the Kansas City Chiefs,
and I know Casey is not a pushover defense, but
to the point here him being QB twenty and ECR
is too low. I think he's a very strong play

(02:33):
this week. And really it comes down to, like when
Denver is pushed and they have to put up points,
Casey's gonna do that, and the matchup has been there.
Bo Nicks has performed for us, and I think he
could do it this week. And I think the thing
that's gonna go underreported here is that since Week six,
Kansas City's defense, their past defense has taken a step back.

(02:54):
Seth like this past defense since Week six is fifteenth,
some middle of the road in yards per tenloud. They're
giving up the fourth highest CPOE and the twelfth highest
success rate per dropback, all while ranking bottom of the
basement second lowest pressure rate during that sample. So, I mean,

(03:15):
how do you want to dice this up? The past
defense has taken a step back. It's actually a really
good matchup for both their wide receivers on the outside,
and bo Nix is probably gonna be staring at clean
pockets for most of this game in a game where
Patrick Mahomes and company on the other side are going
to force them to put up points. I think bo
Nix's is sneakily a top twelve quarterback this week. And

(03:38):
I don't think you're gonna hear a lot of that
because it's been such a rollercoaster for him all season.
And people see Steve Spagnol and the Kansas City Chiefs
defense and they say, oh, no, we're gonna get bad
bow this week. But I actually think we could get
good bow.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
It's super interesting because just at the pace that Denver plays.
Being one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL,
I would have not thought that bo Nick is currently
second in pass attempts second and deep ball attempts as well.
Also he's eighth in rush red zone attempts. So this
guy's been slinging in around and while he also has
some of those interceptible passes right, he has twelve with those,

(04:12):
that's the six most among the position. He also is
fifth in my passing touchdowns as well. So the guy's
been out there running around. Make him plays, So I
don't hate him here in a spot against the Chiefs
where you're expecting a lot of Rashie Rice. I think
on the other side for Kansas City and them to
get up early here and bo Nix, if he can
continue to do it, it seems like these are the matchups,
so Derek, where they have to throw and get out

(04:33):
of that comfortability where they're just feeding JK. Dobbins in
the second half.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
Oh absolutely, because again and to your point, JK. Dobbins
is not going to be in this game, So you know,
I do think a big boost to RJ. Harvey, But
I think if you're gonna keep paced with Kansas City,
in the matchup to exploit and what Sean Payton's been
doing every single freaking week, regardless of matchups, is feeding
the passing game. But this is a good opportunity, sneakily,
a good opportunity for Denver to do that this week.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
Yeah, And I think having two reliable wide receivers right now.
I saw a lot of debate on Twitter and the
Internet as a whole last week, who do you prefer
rest of season, Sutton or Troy or Troy Franklin. So
I think just the fact that we're having that conversation though,
it means something for bo Nicks and his upside moving forward.

Speaker 2 (05:15):
So yeah, I agree with that. And and to your point,
I do think that Sutton makes I think I've seen
a lot of the same things on social media and
we're not talking about Troy Franklin or Sutton on this show.
But I do think Sutton has a really big game
this week and reaffirms himself as the wide receiver one
in that passing off.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
Okay, let's go to the wide receiver position here, Derek,
where you have a couple of starters that we should
be considering one starting out there in Green Bay with
them on the road here against the Giants.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
Yeah, so again peeling back the curtain. No running backs
on this episode. Running back position is god awful. It's
split backfields, it's bad matchups. It's a lot of once
you get outside the top twelve to fifteen running back,
what are we doing here? So yeah, so no running
backs here, But there are are a lot of wide
receivers for the matchups to exploit, one of them being
the New York Giants secondary this week and Christian Watson, dude,

(06:06):
and being wide receiver thirty nine in ECR. A little
bit of respect on his name, but I'm gonna have
him higher and stay above ECR this week because the
role that Watson has played in the Packers offense, He's
basically been Green Bay's Kishan Boody, except he hasn't had
the big monster game or the hot streak with the
touchdowns and run hot. I think that can happen in
the start of that can happen. If you already listened

(06:29):
to the Waiver Wire episode earlier this week, go back
and tune into that. You can hear my full thoughts
about the rest of season outlook for Christian Watson. It
is strong and it starts this week, dude, because if
you look at it, Christian Watson's role in this offense.
Since he returned fifty percent of his targets, so half
of his twelve targets have been of the downfield variety,
he has a twenty five point eight A dot, so

(06:52):
when he's targeted, it is down the field. We should
love that though, because if he hits, if he secures
those tars targets, we're talking about high leverage, high ceiling
potential from the flex position, and just because we haven't
seen it yet doesn't mean that we can't get it.
And especially versus this secondary like set, this secondary for

(07:12):
the Giants has given up the fifth most passing deep
passing yards per game and the eleventh highest pass rating
two downfield shots, and since Week six, versus perimeter wide
receivers the seventh most PPR points per target and the
seventh most receiving yards per game. So, whether you want
to talk about coverage matchup, his role in the offense,
the secondary he's going against this week, as well as

(07:36):
Romeo Dobs is not fully healthy, Matthew Golden is not
fully healthy. Jaden Reid is not going to be back,
so I mean, grab all the boxes to check. Check
check check, check, check check. It all points back to
Christian Watson possibly having a big game this week. Is
a flex play.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Well, that's what I was going to ask you, is
if those receivers are all active, Let's say Wix is
at back out there, Let's say Dobbs is out there,
and let's also say Matthew Golden gets up for this one,
do you feel any differently about Christian Watson or full sense?

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Nope, Okay, no, because his role is agnostic of all
of those players. Yeah, Like Dubs and him are not
playing the same role. Him and Matthew Golden are not
playing the same role. None of those players are playing
the same role as Christian Watson. And the guy that
is definitively the two guys in that offense that are
getting the route share and when they're in two wide
receiver looks that are out on the field right now

(08:29):
are Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson. So I think his
role is agnostic of all those other players, and we
know what that role is, and that role is going
to be very fruitful this week and the weeks to come.

Speaker 1 (08:41):
Yeah, right now, averaging over one hundred air yards per game.
Is Christian Watson limited sample size, but still I really
like what he's been doing out there, and you would
have to think right that with Jamis Winston, after singing
the ball around for the Giants, maybe there's some short
feels he can take advantage of, maybe some opportunistic points
to cash in and get six for both the Packers
and your fantasy football team. Derek, let's stay at the

(09:03):
wide receiver position. And I'm actually a bit surprised by
this call because it's a receiver that last week you
were pretty dismissive of on one of our live streams.

Speaker 2 (09:13):
Dude. Yeah, I'm going with Tyer Lockett here, and I
think with Tyer Lockett it comes down to it took
him one game as a full time player in the
Raiders passing attack to Sir Trey Tucker and everybody's love
of Trey Tucker and chasing the one outlier game and
Pat and I told you in the Waiver Wire episode
after he popped off of that big game, do not

(09:35):
chase this, do not burn your fab do not invest
in Trey Tucker. And that has been a wise stage
piece of advice since we've seen that and Tyler Lockett
for everybody at home. Last week, hop Trey Tucker doubled
him in target chair had a twenty two point two
percent target chair one point nine yards per route run
on a twenty one percent first read. Chare so looking

(09:55):
at this matchup, whether you want to talk about Okay,
let's play the matchup. Let's play the emerging target chair.
Let's played the guy that Gino is going to lean
on as the number two in this passing attack with
that rapport behind Rock Bowers. And also let's play the
total seth the only game, unless I'm wrong right now,
the only game with a fifty year higher total on
this entire slate, So it's bank in two scoring potential.

(10:17):
Tyler Lockett is a strong flex play dude like wide
receiver forty eight and ECR Heck no, dude, I'm gonna
have him as a wide receiver three of my rankings
this week, and I think it's a strong play dude
against again. Since Week six, Dallas Cowboys secondary has not
gotten any better. Man, They're given it the second most
PPR points per target and the second highest pass rating

(10:39):
win targeted two opposing slot wide receivers. So Tyler Lockett
again much like Watson, just checking a lot of boxes.
Man that I'll look for.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
Yeah, I think his prop last week four receptions was
over under one and a half and you hit the
over very clearly if you win after him. And it's
super interesting too. What do you think the as far
as snap shares were looking at, do you think he
overtakes Thornton? Because last week Thornton ran sixty two percent
of snaps, Tyler Lockett fifty seven percent, Joshua or Jack
besh At is twenty three percent with Trey Tucker out

(11:09):
there for every single snap.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
So with the the snap shares get kind of wonky.
I don't look at snap shares. I'll look at route
chairs because snapchaars can lie to you because they'll have
certain guys in there. They'll play more snaps than they're
in there to run block point. Yeah, versus what I
care about is I think that what people should be
looking at his route shares. Okay, because okay, are you

(11:31):
scoring any Fantasy points per pancake block? No? Nobody is,
so nobody cares about what you're doing. And that's something
that I pointed out with Troy Franklin. Everybody's like well,
he's not a full time player in the passing game.
He's almost a full time player. And that's the only
thing we care about. I don't care if you're out
there pass blocking. I don't care if you're out there
run blocking fair. But I care is if when they're
throwing the freaking ball, are you running routes. Tyer Lockett

(11:55):
was doing that last week? I mean he had a
I've a talk about ok So, last week he out
he had a sixty five point seven percent route show.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
Okay, so I think.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
That probably climbs into probably the mid seventies this week,
maybe even higher.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
We'll see Tyler Lockett, Gino Smith, Pete Carroll the three
best friends that anyone could have. Baby, that's for dang
sure right there. Oh the unfortunate wolfpath that payoff maybe
just maybe, And uh. One thing I do not have
a question about is going over and dominating your fantasy
football league. With Fantasy Pro's Premium now available for free

(12:30):
for six months, all you have to do is to
posit in place your first wager at any of our
partner sportsbooks, including Hard Rock Bet Baby. This is the
easiest freeway to get full access to our top fantasy
football tools all season long. Just go to fantasypros dot
com slash premium to get yourself started. And Derek, you
are warming my heart here with your next play at

(12:52):
the wide receiver position, one of my own Pittsburgh Steelers,
I am, dude, And this just.

Speaker 2 (12:57):
Comes down to I think we're looking at Calvin Austin
can have I'm not gonna say a boom game because
you got to keep it in the context of this
passing offense. I think what you're looking at for him
as a strong flex game like four for forty and
he gets a touchdown, then you should be happy with
that type of stat line. Like that's dude. If he

(13:17):
ends up with that, that's fourteen points in PPR land,
and that's probably somewhere in the high end wide receiver three,
low end wide receiver two type of ILK. And Calvin
Ostill could pay that off this week man, Like he's
already got three other weekly finishes inside the top thirty
six wide receivers this season wide receiver sixteen, thirty one,
and thirty five. He's got a sixteen point five percent

(13:39):
target chare. I think that could bump maybe into the
twenty percent range because if you look at the matchup,
he didn't play last time that the Cincinnati Bengals faced
the Pittsburgh Steelers, he had a shoulder issue. But what
do we see the last time these two teams did
match up was the fact that DJ Turner shadowed DK
Metcalf and shut him down. And I think that happens
again this week. Oh, we're looking at everybody's playing the

(14:01):
game of which Pittsburgh Steelers tight end, do I flex or.

Speaker 1 (14:06):
Stream this week?

Speaker 2 (14:07):
When the answer should be probably none of them? And
you just play Calvin Austin. Why while everybody's chasing which
Steelers tied end to play, why don't you just play
and flex the guy that's a full time player in
the offense, that we're not worried about his routes here,
that we're not worried about his standing in the passing game.
And if DK Metcalf does get shadowed, which is how

(14:28):
I'm projecting it, you're facing Calvin Austin is going to
be running a lot of, if not all, of his
routes against Cam Taylor Britt and Dax Hill, who those
two those two corners. This year, Taylor Britt has given
up a sixty six point seven percent catch rate and
a one thirty three passer rating in his coverage. Dax
Hill even worse, Dude seventy seven point eight percent catch rate,

(14:50):
one thirteen passer rating in his coverage. So all roads
lead back to Calvin Austin having a strong flex week.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
The Memphis Legend Baby. I like this play a lot,
specifically because we're seeing Austin work out from the flinker
in two wide sets and also coming into the slot
in the three wide sets. And we just saw something
similar last week with Ol made a Zakiyas coming in
and out of the slot. He went for six for
fifty eight and one, So I think may we see

(15:17):
something similar for Calvin Austin in this one. So I'm
here for I think Aaron Rodgers actually has a little
bit of juice in this matchup as well. I don't
think he's a terrible streamer if you want to go
that way. So, Derek, one more wide receiver for you,
and it's a guy that both you and I were
very high on to begin the season. It didn't come
to fruition, but now it might be starting to, at
least with big neck Davis Mills at quarterback.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
Dude, I just want Nick Kaylee to get out of
their way. Man, I'm tired freaking ridiculous idiotic usage of
these Houston wide receivers, Like why why in week ten
did Xavier Hutchinson get a fifty rowchare just to run
wind sprints and not earn a single freaking target Like,

(16:00):
I'm over it, man, Like you drafted all these guys
to add juice and electricity to your passing attack, and
then all you did was lump these veterans on top
of them and throw them into a wide receiver committee
approach behind Nicocollins. It's absolutely just moronic, Like I don't
understand it, and I'm hoping that this might be the

(16:23):
week that we get Jaden Higgins into a seventy seventy
five percent route chair. Even if it doesn't happen and
he's still in this part time route share like last
week forty nine percent of routes, which is blasphemous. Jay
Niggans still earned a fifteen point six percent target chair.
He was targeted on twenty nine percent of his routes

(16:44):
last week. When he's on the freaking field, he's getting
featured because guess what he's hashtag good at football, dude.
And so it's the matchup, it's the talent that I'm
going to point back to. Is there worry and risk here? Yes,
I'll own that. It's risk with the route share, it's
risk with the game script because if Houston goes out

(17:05):
and they just absolutely stomp the Titans this week and
don't have to throw the ball that much.

Speaker 1 (17:10):
Yep, exactly, then Jane Higgins fails.

Speaker 2 (17:13):
So there is risk here, But there's also some upside
to be had because there is a door that has
not been left open but could get kicked open by
Jayden and Higgins this week where his route share goes up.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
The matchup is there. And since Week six, the Titans
have given up the fifth most receiving yards per game
and the second most PPR points per target to perimeter
wide receivers. So we want to talk about talent, we
when to talk about upside the routes if they go
up much less. Higgins got high leverage usage last week
when he was on the field. That dude ran forty
nine percent of the route seth and still got two

(17:45):
reds on targets and a deep target last week.

Speaker 3 (17:47):
Geez, So just feature the best players on your freaking
deck chart that help you now and moving forward. Get
Christian Kirk out of here, Get Xavier Hutchinson out of here.
I forget it with Braxton Barrios and whoever the heck
do you want to toss out there.

Speaker 2 (18:03):
Play Jayden Higgins, Jalen Nole, and watch this Houston passing
attack flourish, because it will if Nick Cayley will stop
being Nick Cayley.

Speaker 1 (18:14):
Yeah. And I think we know Nico Collins is the
one in this offense. We talked about it last week.
I still think Dalton Schultz is very much the number
two options specifically. I mean Dougie Mills was looking his
way all game. I had the over three and a
half prop on Schultz last week. He crushed that wasn't
even a sweater, so that was great. But as you mentioned,
man Higgins feels like he's starting to creep into this,
you know, third option in the offense, at least through

(18:36):
the passing game and two red zone looks. I like
that compared to everyone else who we saw one for Nole,
we saw one for Christian Kirk, six for Nico Collins.
I don't think we're gonna see that type of volume here,
and I agree with you the one downside too, Higgins
in general, and a lot of these Texans pass catchers
are just the fact hey need to go out and
they don't need to use them against Tennessee. But with

(18:57):
Davis Mills at quarterback, I think there's a chance they might, right,
because Davis Mills also known to potentially turn the ball
over a time or two, so let's go.

Speaker 2 (19:05):
That risk is also priced into where he's at wide
receiver sixty in ECR. I'm gonna have sixty. I'm probably
I'm gonna have him as a wide receiver for in
my rankings when it's all said and done. Yeah, because
and maybe a little bit higher depending on other injuries
and stuff like that, because the upside definitively is here.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Yes, I agree with you there. And you also have
a play here in the international game where I have
to wake up a little early to see it. But
you like zach Ertz against Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 2 (19:32):
I do man so tight end sixteen in ECR. I
understand it. He's tight ended sixteen and fantasy points per
game for the season. But we have seen out of
zach Ertz when the matchup is right that he can
pop off. He does have two tight in one finishes
of the season. He is he has garnered a seventeen
point three percent target share. No, Terry McLaurin. In this game,
it's I mean, the passing attack is going to be

(19:54):
zach Ertz and it's gonna be Deebo Samuel this week,
and the matchup is fantastic for Or. It's like Miami
has been bleeding production to tight ends the entire freaking season,
and I don't think that stops this week. Man. Like
I think zach Ertz is a tight end one. I
think he's a streamer. I think people should play him
confidently as a tight end one this week just based
off of everybody else. Like again, two players we talked
about last week. We I told you to get him

(20:17):
into your lineup, says flex plays or streaming options with
Dalton Schultz and Kate Aughton. Now everybody this week is like, oh,
Dalt Schultzen, Kate Odtton, bro miss you missed the boat.

Speaker 3 (20:28):
Kate Oughton and Dalton Schultze have bottom five matchups this week.

Speaker 2 (20:31):
You don't need to be chasing. You were gonna get
yourself caught behind the curve. If you stayed chasing points
every single week, live in the future with us and
this episode, and you're gonna be happy. And that's the
case with zach Ertz this week. Man Miami has given
up the fifth most receiving yards two opposing receiving yards
per game to opposing tight ends and the seventh highest

(20:53):
yards per reception in the third most Fantasy points per
game two tight ends. Zach Ertz is a good play
this week.

Speaker 1 (21:01):
I mean even last week with Dalton Gacaid exiting early
for the Buffalo Bills, he still had two for thirty seven,
Dawson Knox three for thirty seven, and Jackson Hawes the
blocking tight end out of Georgia Tech. He also found
the end zone, and the week before we saw the
blocking tight end Charley Kohlar for the Baltimore Ravens also
find the end zone. Isaiah Likely how about three for
sixty Mark Andrews how about two for twenty two and

(21:23):
two touchdowns? So I think there's actually some really sneaky
upside here on zach Ertz. I'm excited to see me
what he is in the anytime touchdown market, because I
think that's a fun way to get invested in this
game overseas. So I'm with you here man. The Dolphins,
I think they also now that they don't have as
much pressure coming off the edge with the recent trade
to the Philadelphia Eagles. I think Mariota has a little

(21:44):
bit more time to work. I think he's a little
bit more successful than he has been in previous weeks.

Speaker 2 (21:48):
That is a good call on zach Ertz and I'm
pulling it up right now. I was trying to fill
a buster a little bit. Uh so we didn't have
a lag time because you know, horrible audio touch zach Ertz.

Speaker 4 (21:59):
All one multiple books right now is plus one ninety
five to plus two hundred for in any time touchdown.
I hate that you can get the over on his
three and a half receptions, and I mean, dude, I'm
just I'm spraying the board with zach Ertz props here
like the over and his thirty nine and a half
receiving yards.

Speaker 2 (22:16):
Yes, yes, and yes.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
Well Also, who else do they have out there right?
I mean, we have Deebo, Samuel Luke McCaffrey in a
thing we can stop trying for that. Jalen Lane is
not a thing.

Speaker 2 (22:25):
Like Zach Ertz, Is Chris more Rain doing it this week?

Speaker 1 (22:28):
No? I mean rank the Washington skill players this week
for me as far as how much you would want
to start them? Is it dbo one? Is it Ertz
two and Chris Rodriguez three? Or how would you flip those?

Speaker 2 (22:39):
Okay, I'm right with you, that's exactly that's where my
ranks would be.

Speaker 1 (22:42):
I think those are the only guys you can start
on that team right now?

Speaker 2 (22:45):
Right agreed? Okay, yes, emphatically agree.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
Okay, Well, I'm looking forward to waking up early catching
that one as well. And Derek great stuff today as
always right here on this episode of the Fantasy Pros
Fantasy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite week let
sleeper starts. We want to hear from you and while
you're here to make sure you're smashing that like bun,
help us get to three hundred thousand subscribers as well.
If you're new for Derek Brown, I've set with Wellcock

(23:09):
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6 Must-Start Players for Week 11 | The Primer (Ep. 1841)

Episode Transcript

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}6 Must-Start Players for Week 11 | The Primer (Ep. 1841)