Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros on the NFL side.
This is the Fantasy football podcast which players will outperform
their ranks. Well, guess what We've got rankings live over
on Fantasy Pros. You can check out whether it's full
PPR half PPR, with the best in the industry creating
the expert consensus ranks. You can do your research. But
(00:21):
who do both of our analysts say are going to
outperform their ranks. We've got Pat Fitzmorris, We've got Jake Seely,
and we've got some names for you that are going
to destroy those ECR ranks. So let's get right into it.
Pat start us off here with player number one, who
is going to outperform those ECR ranks.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Drake May, the Patriots quarterback, has an ECR of QB eighteen,
and I've got them ranked QB eight We just recorded
a show where I talked at length about Drake May's upside,
and you know, I just want to make sure people
know we just recorded that show and that I'm not
wearing the same T shirt all week. So I'm going
to make the case again here in a more stilled way.
(01:01):
May averaged fifteen point four fantasy points per start last season.
That wasn't great, But if you take out a Week
eight team game where he played three snaps before getting
pulled in a Week eight game where he was knocked
out with a concussion in the first quarter, May averaged
seventeen point four fantasy points per game. Not a bad number,
not great, but he did it while playing with maybe
the worst group of wide receivers in the league and
(01:22):
with a terrible offensive line. So now the Patriots have
added will Campbell and Morgan Moses upfront. They've added Stefan
Diggs and Kyle Williams to catch passes. They have Treveon
Henderson who can catch passes out of the backfield. But
the key here is May's rushing ability. So according to
True Media, May ranked second in scrambling yardage last season,
(01:43):
behind only Jayden Daniels. So, yes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
more rushing yardage, but a lot of that stuff was designed.
May is a scrambler like he has always been an
eager runner. As a sophomore at North Carolina, he had
six hundred and ninety eight rushing yards and fourteen games.
And in college they dock you for sack yardage counts
(02:03):
against your rushing yardage, and May lost about two hundred
yards to sacks that year, so he would have been
close to nine hundred rushing yards in fourteen games. May
also had sixteen rushing touchdowns in twenty six games over
his last two college seasons. He only had two touchdown
runs last year. We could see a big spike in
the rushing tds this year. There is big time upside
(02:24):
here and you can spend a top thirty or top
forty pick on an established rushing quarterback like Josh Allen,
Lamar Jackson, or Jayden Daniels, or you can just get
a deep, deep discount and a guy who hasn't given
us a true taste of his rushing upside yet. So
I'd rather take the discount on Drake May and hopefully
get something close to that output if he gets the
(02:47):
big breakthrough season from Drake May a year two.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Jake, you are sticking with quarterbacks here as far as
a player that is going to outperform their rank. This
quarterback is ranked outside the top twenty. So who is
said play and how high do you think he can go?
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I'm going with Bryce Young, building off last year,
and I forget who tweeted it, but credit to the
person who did. I'm sure people have seen it on Twitter,
but it was talking about the second half of last
year and quarterbacks under pressure and their EPA went under pressure,
and everybody's talking about Josh Allen being off the chart
to the top right, and of course Lamar Jackson and
Jayden Daniels and well, oh god it, by the way,
(03:22):
who's there with Joe Burrow Jadeen Daniels right in the
mix of the same in them obviously not but Lamar
Jackson not on the Josh Allen tier. But it was
Bryce Young, and we know that the offensive line wasn't
helping him. They didn't do a ton to that, but
they obviously brought in McMillan as another weapon for him.
And I think the biggest part of Bryce Young, which
kind of gets missed last year, is not just that
(03:43):
he had a touchdown in every single game, not that
he looked a little bit like the Alabama college Bryce
Young that we knew and we thought he could be
in the NFL or hoped he could be, but it
was also the rushing touchdown upside, and I don't think
that's going to be completely gone, and I don't think
it should be something that should be completely overlooked. He
ran for two hundred yards from week ten on. He
also ran for five touchdowns. He called his own number
(04:05):
in the facet of not quite Josh Allen again, but
at least enough times to say, like, look, he's going
to take it. It's not all going to be Chewba
Hubbard in his backfield. Even if you know this healthy
backfield with Jonathan Brooks was there, it still would be
Brys Young at the time because he was comfortable. It
was the comparison to what Fitz was talking about the
other show he made when I was talking about Kayleb
Williams and needing to run more, is once you're comfortable
(04:27):
in seeing the field and seeing these opportunities when things
break down. We saw that comfort for Bryce Young. So
you're talking about weapons across the board, and I have
him at QB seventeen. I'm taking him in front of
Justin Herbert, which everybody just turned off the podcast as
soon as I said that, because Justin Herbert, I don't
want QB fifteen. I don't want somebody who's gonna be fine,
all armed and you're gonna have a decent year, but
(04:48):
to crack the top ten, you have to throw for
forty five hundred yards and thirty five touchdowns. Bryce Young,
it's going to be tough to, you know, crack the
top ten, but at least there's some rushing touchdown equity
and rushing touchdown upside where I could say, you know what,
he could throw for four thousand and twenty eight and
crack the top ten just with some of that rushing upside,
which a lot of these other quarterbacks like Sam Darnold
(05:09):
and Penix and all these other names that are kind
of in that same world but ahead of them, just
don't have. So I think Bryce Young consensus twenty three,
I am at seventeen. I am banking on that upside
and what he built off that second half of last year.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Let's move to some running backs. These are two running
backs that you guys have both signified as players that
are going to outperform their ECR rank. And Jake, actually,
why don't we start with you on this one. We'll
jump over to you. Which running back do you think
is This is pseudo saying like they're under ranked, especially
in your view, but it's going to wildly outperform their rank.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
And for the fact, yeah, I have him at RB
seven consensus RB twelve, so wildly outperformed. But I'm actually
a surprised And why I wanted to bring him up
is that more people I thought would be on Chase
Brown after what happened in the draft. You know a
lot of people were scared this was one of the backfields.
It's like, oh my gosh, if you're in Dynasty, see
what you can potentially get for Chase Brown, because what
if they pull a round two, round three running back
(06:05):
pulling out at Judkins, put Judkins alongside of Chase Brown
in uh oh split backfield? But they didn't. They drafted
Taj Brooks, which I've said before on this network, on
the show, and on my article of The Athletic, is
a very very similar running back to Chase Brown, which
tells me, if Chase Brown gets hurt, Taj Brooks is
this solution because Zach Mosses and Baj p Ryan are
(06:26):
different running backs in a different world where those are
going to be the complimentary pieces. And I know a
lot of people will point out that Chase Brown might
fall into that. Lamar Miller from back in the day.
We don't want him to get twenty touches a game,
and that's fine. I don't want him to get twenty
touches a game because I don't want Chase Brown to
get murdered. But Chase Brown in fifteen to twenty, in
that range fifteen to eighteen, he can be what he
(06:47):
was last year and RB seven if you look at
it and you take out the beginning games where he
wasn't the lead for the Bengals, and then you turn
to the games where he was the lead, and go
from that point on, which was around Week four I think,
or whatever it might have been, guess where he was
RB seven. I actually think there's a whirld for him
to reach the top five, especially in this offense. And
(07:08):
I'm shocked. I'm actually surprised that more of the consensus
rankings that people in general don't have him clearly inside
the top ten, ahead of names that have split backfield
concerns already from day one, I think this backfield is
clearly Chase Brown's. And the draft made me feel even
better about that.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
All right, Pat, you got one of my favorite running
backs from last season. Still love him this year? This
is a running back that is a top ten RB.
But you think he's still being under ranked? So how
and who is this player going to outperform the rest?
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Yeah, I do think he's under ranked. Well, it's Bucky
Irving and he is right at RB ten in our
expert consensus rankings. But I've got him RB six. I'm
convinced that anyone who has Bucky Irving ranked RB ten
or lower did not have him anywhere in any league
last year, because the guy was a machine down the
stretch last year. I know the one league where I
(08:00):
had him, I won the championship and he was a
major engine for me in those playoff weeks especially. Just
seems like a lot of people, including a lot of
fantasy analysts, aren't fully buying into Bucky Irving. And I'm
not sure why. He just he looked fantastic last year.
Past the eye test with flying colors. The dude just
moves differently like Bucky strings moves together. His feet are
(08:22):
so quick, he makes cuts that break ankles, and for
a little guy, Bucky Irving is really freaking hard to tackle. Like,
not only did Bucky average five point four yards per
carry last season, he averaged three point nine three yards
after contact per carry, the most among all running backs
with at least sixty rushing attempts. Last year, he was
(08:42):
number one, and Bucky Irving first. Forced sixty two missed
tackles last year that ranked eighth, and every one of
the seven running backs ahead of Bucky on that list
had more carries. He also catches passes forty seven receptions.
As a rookie, Rashad White had been a pretty capable
running back for the Buccaneers, and by the end of
last season, the Buccaneers had made White to peer back
(09:04):
up to Bucky Irving, Like, are we really worried that
Rashad White is going to take his job back? Come on, like,
Bucky Irving is miles better than Rashad White. We saw
it with our own eyes. That was not a mirage.
Trust your own eyes. Bucky Irving's ECR at RB ten
is just way too low. And you know he and
Brock Bauers are going to be my two favorite second
(09:25):
round targets in this year's draft. Spowers early in the
second round, Bucky late in the second round.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Pat and Jake both have one more for you. We're
going to get to wide receivers, but we're going to
give you a chance to take home one of the
best wide receivers in the league autograph item because you've
got a chance to win a sign Nicocollins Texans jersey
for free courtesy of our friends over at Pristine Auction
dot com. All you've got to do it's really easy.
Subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop
a comment below on any video and that's it. We'll
(09:53):
be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So
make sure to also turn on notifications so you know
when we've got new videos and potentially so you can
claim that Nico Collins autograph jersey final up here, we
have got a wide receiver, Pat, let's kick it to you.
This wide receiver is going to outperform their rank.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Stefan Diggs, who's ECR is wide receiver forty three. I've
got a wide receiver thirty five, and that's conservative, I think. Obviously.
One of the reasons why Diggs has an ADP outside
the top forty is because he tore his ACL last October.
But Digg says he's ahead of schedule in his recovery
and is trying to be ready for Week one even
If Diggs isn't quite ready to play in Week one,
(10:33):
we're probably not gonna have to wait that long until
he's back. And when he comes back, Diggs is immediately
going to become Drake May's number one receiver. Before last year,
Diggs had topped one thousand yards in six straight seasons,
and he was on a thousand yard pace last year
when he got hurt. I'm not going to say Diggs
is the same guy he was in twenty twenty when
(10:54):
he had one hundred and twenty seven receptions fifteen hundred
yards helped Josh Allen make the lead from promising young
quarterback to superstar. Diggs isn't a top five receiver anymore,
but can he be a top twenty five receiver? He
absolutely can be. In fact, I think Diggs is very
likely to finish as a top twenty five receiver if
he's back for Week one. Stephan Diggs ECR of wide
(11:17):
receiver forty three is way too low buying opportunity here
for Steph Diggs.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
All right, Jake finished this off here, wide receiver. This
guy is being under ranked and is going to outperform
what rank.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yeah, I wanted to say my biggest for last well,
let's say his ECR is one oh one, that's right
outside the one hundreds. I have him at wide receiver
sixty two, which might sound like, eh, he's only wide
receiver sixty two. But when you're talking about somebody who's
one oh one that goes undrafted, undrafted, undrafted, and then
keeps going undrafted, I think Roman Wilson deserves our attention,
especially since we had the trade of George Pickens. I'm
(11:51):
going back to more of the coach and what happened
last year. I know Roman Wilson basically had a lost season,
part of that due to injury, but I go back
to the Senior Bowl, which, by the way, Mike Tomlins
evolved with every single year, and he said, Roman Wilson's
impressing me enough that hey, you go line up across
from Quinyan Mitchell, one of the best corners in the
(12:11):
NFL now and was in the draft last year, and
said I'm going to test you out and saw enough
from him that he turned around and took Roman Wilson
in the third round. Like he saw enough to say
I liked him enough, I tested him, and now he's
part of my team again. Lost season but let's look
at this depth chart. I know the quarterback question is
still out there, and that's probably part of the reason
that all these wide receivers outset of Metcalf are muted.
(12:33):
But although so, the other options after Metcalf are Robert Woods,
good player coach at this point, Calvin Austin, he's fine,
he's a guy, Scotty Miller, Ben Scernick like just there's
nobody on this roster talent wise that can b Wilson.
Is Wilson a guaranteed to hit? Absolutely not. But I
love his routes. I love his ability to get open.
He's got some speed to play some balls deep. You
(12:55):
would like a little bit more after the catch. But
if he could step in as the number two, and
there's not some big names in front of him to
make that leap unless they sign like an Amari Cooper
and shock Us. But as of today, if he steps
in as the number two, I don't care if the
quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, there will be enough value there
that you're going to want him at least as a
wide receiver.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Five.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Who do you think is going to outperform the ranks? Well,
you can put it to the test by going and
checking out our consensus rankings at fantasypros dot com slash rankings,
and you can decide who you think is going to
heavily outproduce their rankings. Go and check it out today.
The Athletics, Jake Seeley, Fantasy Pros, Pat Fitzmorris, I'm Chris Welsh.
Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us,
and we'll talk to you next time right here on
(13:36):
Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
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Speaker 2 (13:50):
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