HOW DO YOU KNOW? | Identifying the Next Breakout WR1s in Fantasy Football (Ep. 1265) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I
am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and by
a special guest, Alfredo Brown from Football Guys. Alfredo, thank
you so much for making the time.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Yeah, thank you guys for having me. I like the
deepro Worthy appropriate shirt. Everything's just kind of it seems
it's very welcoming, very inviting, So thanks guys.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
I've been following you. I've been following your journey on
Twitter going through Succession, which has been fun since that
was one of my favorite shows and I wanted to
ask you how did you enjoy it as a binge?
Because I quite liked it as a slow burn, watching
you know, every episode every week as it came out.
It was one of those kind of throwback shows where
it wasn't a binge. What did you think of going
episode episode episode episode.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
It's a drug.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
It is a drug in every sense of the word,
and like it almost changes your mentality and your emotions.

Speaker 3 (00:46):
It just it hurts.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Like there was times I was like, I need to
go take a break, this is too much anxiety, and
I was just ripping through seasons and then I would
tell my wife what happened and she'd be like, you
seem really emotional it.

Speaker 3 (00:57):
I was like, yeah, I gotta go take a break.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
So I'm almost like I'm happy it's done, but I
can see how maybe going through seasons of it in
years of it would have been a way better option.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Did you did you need to take a break after
the Connors wedding episode?

Speaker 2 (01:11):
Oh dude, that one got mesion.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Yeah, that one got master class of television.

Speaker 4 (01:17):
I just want to throw this out there.

Speaker 5 (01:18):
Disclaimer. I have not watched this show, so spoilers to
a minimum.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
Boys, It's it's the rare uh scenario where I'm the
one who sees I'm the one who's seen something in
Debro hasn't because usually you make fun of me for
being too year because.

Speaker 4 (01:30):
You're you're entertainment and movie takes are so bad. Sometimes
pretty good. Actually I did a pretty good Yeah, no
bias in that opinion.

Speaker 1 (01:38):
The audience agrees in the comments. Typically I don't know
about that.

Speaker 4 (01:44):
I don't know about that.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
We're gonna de CROs Well that that's enough, Rahable, it's
up into the show. We are talking today. We're identifying
breakout wide receiver ones and this is a show we
did last year. And it's actually sort of drawing from
an article that we had on the site two years
ago where one of our freelance ride he had the
start close call identifying the next wide receiver ones, and
he looked at in the previous decades. So this is
twenty twelve to twenty twenty one, there were an average

(02:08):
of seven different wide receiver ones in PPR formats year
over year that had changed, So you can't just kind of,
you know, copypaste who the guys were last year. It's
likely to change at least about half those names. And
during that same span, thirty four percent of wide receiver
ones first reached that mark in their third season, twenty
percent do it for the first time in their second season,
sixteen percent in their fifth season, eleven percent in their

(02:30):
rookie season. I know that's a lot of numbers. The
big takeaway there is over fifty percent over half of
all players that become wide receiver ones do so for
the first time in either their second or third seasons.
So we're gonna look at second year wide receivers, we're
gonna look at third year wide receivers, and we're also
going to rank the rookie wide receivers in terms of
their chances to fit into this category as well. Just
to let everybody know, all of our early twenty twenty

(02:52):
four consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. We will dive in here. We're
gonna start with the third year guys, then we'll do
second year, then we'll get to the rookies. So Alfredo,
you are a guest, you can go first. Which name
are you stealing from? Deebro here?

Speaker 4 (03:06):
Beautiful beautiful man.

Speaker 3 (03:09):
All right, guys, we gotta do it.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
I'm willing to step on this rake again and again
and again, but this time there's a Kirk Cousins rake,
and I'm gonna go with Drake London here. We've just
been waiting for this, and we've all seen the talent
and we've seen the opportunity. It's been there. Now the
Falcons get Kirk Cousins coming in, and you try to
piece as many things as you can scale. It's not
just Kirk Cousins coming in, it's Zach Robinson coming in,
who's also gonna be calling plays. And you go back

(03:33):
and you kind of just look at a very small
sample size when Jordan Addison was the lead receiver for
Kirk Cousins on the Vikings week five through eight, when
Justin Jefferson was out, Jordan Addison was the wide receiver
seven and a half PPR points per game, averaging eight
targets per game. That kind of target share is something
that we've seen with Drake London throughout his career and
it would not surprise me one bit if we see

(03:53):
that again here in Atlanta with Kyle Pitts and Kirk Cousins.

Speaker 3 (03:56):
When, by the way, the.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
Kyle Pitts thing, it's not like the Vikings didn't have
Teach Hawkinson already on the field there. So Drake London
has a very realistic path to being top ten and
targets when you look at what the Vikings have done
historically with Kirk Cousins, what the Rams have done historically
was Zach Robinson being there. You start to piece together
those numbers and you're looking at probably somewhere around thirty
five thirty six pass attempts per game, Drake London getting

(04:18):
let's say a twenty five percent target share. You're looking
at a guy that could be hitting one hundred and
fifty targets in the season and you start to look
at the archetype that he is. He can play inside,
play outside. He can do a lot of the same
things that Puka and Akua can do. A physical route
runner who can win at the catch point. We definitely
want to see a little bit more better, you know,
movements after the catch. But he's a good route runner,
he's a great hands catcher. This is the type of

(04:40):
player that you take the risk on early in your
draft because they can absolutely explode. And I think we're
finally going to see it here with Drake London. I
haven't projected right now to be top twelve and targets,
receptions and receiving touchdowns. So yeah, it's all systems go.
Drake London top twelve wide receiver in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
Yeah, definite smash. I'll clear the paint for de Row
to agree you in a second. But I just wanted
to also add that, you know, it's not just adding
Cousins and Robinson, like you mentioned. I like that you
hit on the target share because they didn't add a
big time receiver, Like there was a world where it
would have been funny given what they've done in recent years.
But like you could have justified them drafting Roma Dunze

(05:17):
with the eighth pick, you know, instead of Michael Pennix.
You could have justified them adding another piece there. It's
really concentrated with London and Pits and whatever passing they
do with Bijon. I am really excited for London this year.
I think it's a very clear pick and a great
pick by you, Debro. I'm obviously I know you agree.

Speaker 4 (05:35):
Oh hell yes, Drake Lenon.

Speaker 5 (05:37):
I mean all we've been waiting for is just competent
quarterback play.

Speaker 4 (05:40):
I mean I said this early the offseason.

Speaker 5 (05:42):
I was like, before they signed Kirk Cousins, if you
get him competent quarterback play, not even like amazing quarterback play.
He's catching ninety five to one hundred balls, just throw
it out there. Because he's that freaking good. And he's
always had the talent. We just haven't seen him allowed
it to flourish with volume. And right now on Fantasy
pros per our projections, I mean right now he's and

(06:03):
these are medium projections, so right now he is projected
to be fifteenth in receptions at eighty four point four
and fifteenth in receiving yards at just a shade over
eleven hundred, and again those are medium projections, and we're
talking about for him to get top twelve. I mean,
I think he's gonna be a wide receiver one. I
think that, Look if he has the type of season

(06:26):
that I believe he can have, and and I'm there
because I have right now, I have him as my
wide receiver ten, and I think the conversation starts for
him at wide receiver seven.

Speaker 4 (06:35):
I'm all in on Drake London all in.

Speaker 1 (06:39):
Yeah. I mean it's like I don't want to harp
too much on like how obvious obvious this is, but
like it everything is aligning in place right. There's like
there's so few like red flags you could point to you.
The one thing I want to ask you, Alfredo, is
in a world where cousins, let's say, like struggles coming
back from the Achilles, like Achilles is not like a
nothing injury, in a world where he is like not

(06:59):
at full strength or even is still injured, and for
whatever reason, they need Michael Pennox on the field, do
you think stylistically London fits with what Penix likes to
do too.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
Yeah, I mean you can see there's there's a little
bit of what London does that translates over to a
guy like Roma Dunza, and what we've seen historically at Washington,
Michael Penix has been that vertical thrower. It's not like
London can't win deep and it's not like they don't
have enough weapons. I know they didn't get major weapons,
but like Darnel Mooney can stretch the field a little
bit and take a safety away. You know, you got
Rondell Moore running around, even though he's like four foot

(07:31):
eight like whatever. You got guys out there that can
spread out the defense.

Speaker 1 (07:34):
So would it.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
Drop Drake London if Michael Penox was the quarterback, Sure
of course. I don't think you're putting him in the
top twelve. You're probably dropping him a little bit closer
to like the eighteen to twenty range. But you're still
gonna end up with a productive guy just simply because
the talent is there, the offensive system is there, the
targets are going to be there, and that's the big thing.
I think that the cherry on top that puts him
over that hump is Kirk Cousins and that's what puts
him in that wide receiver one conversation.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Debro, who's the first guy you're picking?

Speaker 5 (08:00):
Well, I feel like this is the low hanging fruit,
but we got to mention it. I mean, this is
the chalk pick of all chalk picks. But really, I
mean it's gonna happen this year, guys, assuming that Aaron
Rodgers stays healthy, Garrett Wilson will be a wide receiver one.
And I mean we know the volume is there. Last year,
I mean he crushed and basically everything he could control
as far as earning targets ninth and target chair for

(08:22):
fifth and first read chair. I mean we're talking about
a wide receiver that legit was already last year the
wide receiver five and expected fantasy points per game.

Speaker 4 (08:33):
But because Zach Wilson.

Speaker 5 (08:35):
Is putrid, he was the wide receiver thirty two and
fantasy points per game. So all we need is better
quarterback play. I think we get that Aaron Rodgers already
is doing everything he needs to do. He's a full
going camp. He's had more than a year coming off
the Achilles.

Speaker 4 (08:50):
I'm not worried about it. Man. Garrett Wilson to the
moon wide receiver one this year.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
Afraid we were talking about it. Before the show and
like you obviously agrew with Garrett Wilson, Like like Debra said,
it kind of low hanging fruit. Is there are there
any red flags against Garrett Wilson. Is there a case
you can make against him as one of the more obvious,
you know, potential wide receiver one breakouts.

Speaker 2 (09:07):
Well, it's not fair because you're asking a Dolphins fan
to find the negative and a Jets player, So I
can do that with my eyes closed, man, But you
know it's honestly, you could poke holes in any of
the profiles for these guys, Like you could sit here
and say, okay, Robert Sala. You know, he puts out
a really good defense, and that Jets defense is strong.
Maybe they want to control the pace of games and
not throw as much and they won't be as behind

(09:28):
as they were with Zach Wilson, they added, Mike Williams
added Malakai Corley. Maybe they want to establish the run
a bit more. Like you could start to poke these holes,
but at the end of the day, it just kind
of boils down to you've got a very good quarterback,
a very good receiver.

Speaker 3 (09:41):
He's going to earn the targets.

Speaker 2 (09:42):
Don't overthink it, it gets pretty simple for fantasy football.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, and Garrett Wilson, of all the guys we're gonna
name today, he is ranked the highest, and our expert
consensus rankings this is half PPR by the way, he's
ranked highest. He's wide receiver seven. He's the second guy
in Tier two, so very aggressively being ranked there in
the early rankings, and ADP is reflective of that as well.
He's wide receiver eight. So and he's going in the
first round of drafts, at the back end of the

(10:07):
first round. So he is, you know, somebody that everybody
is agreeing on and the case is really obvious there.
So I thought there were two kind of clear names
that we were going to start with, and those were
the two names that we started with, Drake London and
Garrett Wilson. There are other really interesting, exciting names I'm
optimistic about, but those two kind of separated themselves from me.
ALFREDA who's the next name you want to bring up?

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Next name is a guy that I thought would break
out last year and he did kind of to an extent,
just not as.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
Much as we really wanted to see.

Speaker 2 (10:32):
And it's Chris Alave. I mean, last year, it was
not bad. You know, one hundred and thirty four targets
tied for twelveth you know, fifteenth in target share. Like
this was a guy who was still very productive. And
now the Saints let Michael Thomas walk. They didn't really
add any major target competition in free agency or the draft.
And I mean, if we're being honest, Chris A. Lave
had like the worst eleven hundred yard eighty catch season

(10:53):
that we can remember. Everyone it seems like the way
everyone talks about it and feels about it, you know,
you would have out that he got like six hundred
yards and like a single touchdown, and it was just awful.
Everything there in New Orleans was just really unlucky touch
with lack of touchdowns, misthrows deep. The Saints offense just
had a horrible catch rate. It wasn't just an a
Lave thing. It was the same thing was happening with

(11:13):
Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas. All of the receivers were
outside the top forty in catch trade. Now Clint Kubiak
comes in as the offensive coordinator, coming in.

Speaker 3 (11:20):
From San Francisco.

Speaker 2 (11:21):
The Niners led the league in passing plays of twenty
plus or forty plus yards. So we're gonna get more
explosive plays there from O Lave and from Shaheed and
these guys, and so the whole thing just to like
get a little football nerdy here. The problem with Derek
Carr last year was he was doing a lot of
these prayer balls, like he was just catching, throwing and
hoping the receiver would go track it down. But we're
gonna see a lot more from Kubiak this year. Is

(11:42):
a lot more play action, which helped Derek Carr quite a.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
Bit more back in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one.

Speaker 2 (11:46):
When he was actually producing good fantasy wide receivers.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
We know a Lave is a great route runner. We
know he's got speed, he's got hands, he's got all
of that.

Speaker 2 (11:53):
This should allow Car and a Lave a bit more
time to get their timing down on those deep plays
and actually just to be able to use Lave stops
sending him deep every single day time, like you can
have him run some intermediate routes and get Car on
the move with some play action. So I think we're
gonna see that if you add just a couple of
touchdowns last year, maybe some of those mistouchdowns from car
Olave would have been a top twelve wide receiver, so

(12:14):
I think it's very much within the realm of possibility
for him in twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
Four, I was actually surprised to see Olave in ECR
ranked as a top twelve guy. He's wide receiver twelve
in the early rankings, not because it's a bad ranking,
but because of what you said about how it really
felt like last year was a bigger disappointment than even was.
I was like very happily drafting a Lave back half
of the second round last year. If I was getting

(12:38):
him in the early third, I was over the moon.
I was very, very excited about Lave last year, and
from that perspective, it did feel like a disappointment because
it wasn't this superstar breakout that I was hoping for.

Speaker 4 (12:49):
But you're right, I.

Speaker 1 (12:50):
Mean, we're looking eleven hundred yards, you know, five touchdowns
is not amazing. It's not like he had zero, you know,
almost ninety catches. So it perhaps the kind of narrative
around during the season last year was maybe harsher than
it deserved, and maybe I shouldn't be surprised that he's
being ranked as wide receiver twelve. He's being drafted as
wide receiver eleven, so even higher than the rankings. Deebro,

(13:11):
what do you make of Alave this year?

Speaker 5 (13:12):
It's a fantastic call by Alfredo. I've loved this so
much because the exactly what y'all are pointing out here,
the narrative around his season and the reality of a
season are two different things. I mean, he improved, I
mean from his rookie season to his second year. We
wanted to see growth. The fact of it is it
wasn't as much growth because of the complexion of the

(13:33):
office and Derek Carr not playing good as we hope
to see. But did we also see him best his
rookie target volume yes? Did he have more receptions yes,
receiving arts yes? Did he also finish better in his
second season as the wide receiver nineteen versus his rookie season. Absolutely,
and everything that Alfredo laid out there. The part that

(13:55):
I love the most about it is when he talked
about how Derek Carr played last year, talking about a
quarterback that not only had the eighth most deep attense,
he had the sixth highest checkdown rate. So it was
literally yolo ball or dump it down to Kamara, and
there was nothing in between.

Speaker 1 (14:13):
So I love that.

Speaker 5 (14:14):
Alfredo brought up the difference and the offense this year,
because we know a Lave can win the intermediate. Just
let the man go out there, run routes over the middle,
cook dudes, get separation, and we could see a lot
of easier completions for him this year.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
If that happens, Oh dude, he's gonna be a wide receiver. One.

Speaker 1 (14:35):
Yeah. It's a great point. And my big kind of
follow up question that I was going to ask about
was Derek Carr, but you've already addressed that. I think that.
I mean, it's hard to kind of sit here and
feel say I'm optimistic about Derek Carr, but I think
it's reasonable to expect that, given the scheme change and
what they're going to be trying to do on offense,
you can only expect him to be good enough to
you know, support a guy that's really talented that we

(14:56):
all think can be a wide receiver. One. Debro, give
me the last third year we're gonna talk about.

Speaker 5 (15:01):
People are gonna hate this, and I know they're gonna
hate it, and I'm prefacing this with because it's always, oh, well,
this guy burned me last year and a lot of
people didn't want to believe in him to begin with.

Speaker 4 (15:14):
But I'm bringing up Christian Watson.

Speaker 5 (15:15):
Here, and I know that I'm already getting the collective
eye roll of everybody watching this on YouTube, and that's fine.
But as much as everybody loves and we're gonna talk
about it, so I'm not gonna shade Jaden Reid too much.

Speaker 4 (15:26):
Everybody loves Jayden Reid but.

Speaker 5 (15:28):
They're all out on Christian Watson because of the hamstring
and stuff. And look, I'm not gonna get caught up
and all the stuff about, oh, the guy's injury prone,
he can't stay healthy. There's so many players if you
go back, that are injury prone until they're not. I mean,
how many times do we play that game with Keenan Allen?
How many times do we talk about this with Will Fuller?

(15:48):
And then when he stayed healthy, he was freaking amazing.
And the other thing I want to bring up with
Christian Watson is so I'm not worried about the injuries
it's baked into, even more so with his ADP this year,
but he has the talent to be a wide receiver one.
And here's the other thing that people don't realize. When
he was actually on the field playing at least seventy
three percent of the snaps, so weeks five through thirteen,

(16:11):
he was the Packers wide receiver one. He led the
team in that span when he was out there, and
not if it's saying like he was fully healthy, because
I don't even thought we even when he was playing
a full time role last year. I don't think we
saw a fully healthy Christian Watson at any part of
last season. That didn't stop him when he was a
full time player from leading the team in target, cheer,

(16:32):
air ar chier yards per route run. Yes, even better
than Jayden Reid ends on targets he had fourteen in
that spand Romeo Dubbs seven, first read cheer and first
downs per route run. So basically I could have just
summed this up really quickly and saying everything we care
about for wide receivers when Christian Watson was on the
field last year, he led Green Bay in everything. So

(16:57):
why would we not think that Jordan Love's second year
of this all offense, and if he can reproduce what
we saw down the back half of last year because
really Christian Watson wasn't around when Jordan Loved really took
off down the back half.

Speaker 4 (17:08):
Of the year.

Speaker 5 (17:09):
So if both of those things coincide and we do
get help out of Christian Watson, I think all of
the hype that we had and the hope that we
had for his second year all comes back and pays
off in his third season.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, I appreciate you picking somebody who's ranked much. I mean,
the guys you already talked about are ranked in like
the back half of you know, the top twelve already
in terms of you know, the early rankings and ADP.
Christian Watson's in like the mid forties, so he's further down.
And I really appreciate you kind of picking somebody that
is maybe a bit boulder of a prediction for me.
Like the question, you're making a very good case for

(17:44):
why he could be the Packers wide receiver one. It's
harder for me to see like a wide receiver one
in terms of being top twelve, just because there are
mouths defeat even if he's at the top of the
food chain, then that offense and then they also added
you know, Jacobs and your boy Marshaun Lloyd, and I
just feel like there's just a lot To me, I
don't know that the targets will be high enough that

(18:06):
without a lot of touchdowns he can be a wide
receiver one. And there's just a lot of options for
guys to get touchdowns in this offense. So I see
the upside case, but to me, like everything has to
go right just because there's so many other options in
that offense. What do you think, AFREDA.

Speaker 2 (18:20):
I'll save most of my stuff because I am talking
about Jay and Reid a little bit later, but I'll
say this, and to Debro's point of Christian Watson, which
I totally agree with, I think we learned last year
and we should have already known this is just get
pieces of good offenses. And when you know that there's
going to be a good passing attack, a good quarterback,
good offense that they're going to be in scoring range
pretty much wherever they are on the field, get pieces

(18:42):
of that. And oftentimes you can look and see and
who's going to be the cheapest piece of that? Could
that be a guy like don Tavian Wicks? Sure, but
if we're talking about the guy that could possibly break
out into the top twelve. I think the names we
want to look at are going to be Christian Watson
and a guy that I might talk about a little
bit later.

Speaker 1 (18:58):
Deebra last thought on just this offense in general, any
hesitation at all, just about like Jordan Love really only
did this for half a season at such an elite level.
I mean, I'm with you, I'm very much thinking this
Packer's offense will be really good this year. I'm a
full on believer in Jordan Love. But do you have
any hesitation of the sample size isn't that big yet?

Speaker 5 (19:18):
Well, first, I want to kind of highlight the point
that you made about touchdowns. We're really worried about Christian
Watson scoring touchdowns. Worm in twenty career starts, he scored
fourteen total touchdowns, and.

Speaker 1 (19:28):
That was worried. I said, he needs to do it.

Speaker 5 (19:31):
Touchdowns is not what I'm worried about with him. But
to your point about Love, is there worries there? Yes,
because we haven't seen him do it for a full
season now.

Speaker 1 (19:41):
I'd even say, sorry, Cutch, if i'd even say hesitation
more than worries. I wouldn't even say like I'm concerned.
It's just so, but I'm.

Speaker 5 (19:46):
Just something in the back of the ball park, and
I think they're fair to question because have we seen
Jordan Love do this for an entire season?

Speaker 4 (19:54):
No, have we seen pretty.

Speaker 5 (19:57):
Much over the entirety of his career, just as equal
amounts of me Jordan Love as really freaking good Jordan Love.

Speaker 4 (20:04):
Yes, So I get the hesitation for me.

Speaker 5 (20:08):
I think this is one of those moments where it's like,
am I going to hedge or am I going to
be aggressive in drafts? And do I believe the small
sample can be reproduced?

Speaker 4 (20:20):
I think it can be.

Speaker 5 (20:21):
And in the parts and pieces is what we see
out of Love, especially going into the second year as
the starter, the system he's going to be comfortable with,
as well as the rapport with his wide receivers, and
if we get better health out of Watson, the offensive line,
Luke Musgrave, all these parts and pieces of this offense,

(20:43):
I think we could see another lead for Jordan Love.
And I know that sounds crazy considering what he did
down the back half of last year, but really, I
can really make you an easy argument that I don't
know if we've seen the true ceiling for the player yet.

Speaker 1 (20:59):
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(21:21):
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of course, is all in on Jane Daniels in fantasy
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the Year, same as Marvin Harrison Junior, JJ McCarthy at
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(21:42):
a couple of those guys in our rookie segment. Of course,
I think you can make a reasonable case for any
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The crown is yours. So our third year guys we
picked were Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Christian Watson.
Let's go to the second year guys. Alfredo will start
with you again. Who's your first pick here?

Speaker 2 (22:19):
So my first pick here is going to be Zay Flowers,
the wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens. And there's a
lot of stuff that's similar to a Lave. You get
an older veteran who was soaking up some targets leaving right.
Obj leaves the Ravens second on the team in targets.
Not overly optimistic about Devontes Walker, who I think needs
a lot to develop as he gets into the league.

(22:39):
And I get it that the Ravens are saying we
still have faith in Rashad Bateman, and it's it's like,
what's the old X Files phrase, I want to believe? Like, sure,
I want to believe, but dude, when you play a
full season and you still get out targeted by Odell
Beckham Junior, I just don't know that it's there. And
I really loved Bateman, so like that's saying something for me.

(23:00):
The thing was is with Jay Flowers is in college
he was successful in deep routes, he just didn't run
them all that often.

Speaker 3 (23:05):
He had a horrible quarterback.

Speaker 2 (23:06):
And then the same thing kind of happened in the pros.
Not that he had a horrible quarterback, but the timing
was just really really off. And the Ravens try to
get him the ball in space and get the ball
in his hands as much as possible, let him create
with that kind of spread style Todd Monkin offense.

Speaker 3 (23:22):
But then you go.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
When you look and Zay Flowers was forty fifth and
yards per route run and eighty second and average depth
of target, like it just it just was not good.
This is not how you want to use such an
explosive guy. Lamar Jackson attempted plenty of deep passes of
twenty yards or more. The timing just wasn't there. He
was twenty eighth in adjust completion percentage on those deep throws.
So it's just there's a little bit of Lamar learning

(23:43):
a new system. There's timing to get down with a
new player in Zay Flowers, there's also a little bit
of a learning curve for Jay Flowers. I mean, maybe
if it quacks like a duck and you know, walks
like a duck, maybe Zay Flowers just hasn't been great
at tracking those deep balls and that's something he'll need
to improve on as well. I know a lot of
people might also point to Mark Andrews being out of
the lineup when Flowers saw a boost and fantasy points,

(24:04):
But god, it's not like Isaiah likely wasn't out there
producing as well. He came in and did plenty from
the tight end position, and we really didn't see a
whole lot change in terms of the target share for it,
because the numbers were really almost identical.

Speaker 3 (24:16):
For Jay Flowers.

Speaker 2 (24:17):
So I'd argue that Mark Andrews returning opens things up
a bit more for Jay Flowers because now safeties are
gonna have to focus on Andrews and likely and some
of these other players and defenses might even be stacking
the box a little bit with Derek Henry. I mean
we were forgetting now that he's on that team, so say,
Flowers has just a ton of room to break out
even further in year number two.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
I have been surprised that there hasn't been more conversation
around Zay Flowers this offseason. I think a lot of
things are shaping up for a pretty good year from him.
I X Files is not a show I have seen.
I do still want to believe in Rashad Bateman also,
but you like, well, I've never I'm not like actively
avoiding it. I've just never in my life been like,

(24:59):
oh it's time to watch you kind.

Speaker 4 (25:00):
Of really have to avoid it or try to avoid it, Like.

Speaker 1 (25:03):
What what ears was that show on.

Speaker 4 (25:06):
There?

Speaker 1 (25:08):
That show premiered the year after I was born. I
wasn't like alive to be watching it.

Speaker 4 (25:13):
It's not.

Speaker 1 (25:15):
Okay, it's not that sounds it sounds like he's calling
I know.

Speaker 4 (25:19):
I feel I feel like I'm getting aged here.

Speaker 1 (25:21):
Okay, I didn't know that X Files was like I mean,
I'm aware of the show, and that's very popular. I
didn't know it was so big that it was going
to be this shock that somebody hadn't seen it.

Speaker 4 (25:30):
But I'm just so shocked you haven't seen it, but
I am. I still like anyway.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
The point I was trying to get is that I
do still want to believe in her Shaw Bateman. But
what I was gonna say is that even if he
does take this leap that the Ravens are kind of
putting on him to take, I don't think that's gonna
hurt Flowers too much because there's not a third guy.
I mean, most offenses are gonna have at least two
good receivers right in this day and age with how
much teams pass. So even if Bateman does take a

(25:57):
step forward, I think A will still be behind Flower
in the pecking order, and B there's not a third
guy unless you start looking at the tight ends. So
I'm not really worried about even if Bateman does take
this big step forward, that really hurting Zay Flowers to me,
And it's not even Andrews. It's if they want to
do more of Andrews and likely on the field together.
I'm curious to see how they kind of do that

(26:18):
than how that might impact you know, the actual receivers
on the team. But all that said, that's like a
minor red flag. I'm very excited about Flowers this year.
I think again, like, I don't think there's been enough
discussion about I love second year wide receivers. A guy
who's a clear number one in the offense in terms
of at the receiver position, who's got an elite quarterback.
Maybe not elite at the exact skill set that fits

(26:38):
best will say, but is a very good quarterback second
year of an offense. Like, there's just so much to
like here, and Debro, you actually also picked Save Flowers
for one of your second year breakouts.

Speaker 5 (26:47):
Oh yeah, man, Like again, I do think the volume
needs to be turned up on Zay Flowers as far
as what we could see.

Speaker 4 (26:53):
I just I don't really understand, like what's.

Speaker 5 (26:56):
The downside here, Like we've seen a rookie wide receiver
that proved he could earn high volume, he had a
high first read share, and this is a consolidated passing
offense with also an offensive coordinator who picked up the
pace like they're passing right. Fine, that was very mid
last year, it doesn't really matter if you're running at

(27:18):
the pace the Baltimore did to close the season. We're
literally talking about the same type of diagram that the
Philadelphia Eagles did with Jalen Hurts. That what I think
we see out of Anthony Richardson in Indie this year.
As far as a middle of the road, neutral pay
or passing rate team that flies at a high pace.
In Baltimore, we didn't see that until last season. So
now second year of this offense, second year for Ze Flowers.

Speaker 4 (27:41):
We talked about this.

Speaker 5 (27:42):
You mentioned the numbers at the top of the show,
where I'm like, second year wide receivers that we've seen
flash in their rookie season are strong bets to make
every single freaking year. So yes, I'm massively in on
Sea Flowers.

Speaker 4 (27:56):
And what we saw.

Speaker 5 (27:57):
Even if people want to poke holes when andrews out,
you're telling me he earned the entirety when andrews out,
so week eleventh, the rest of the season, he earned
a thirty point seven first read share, and during that
stretch we saw him ranked twentieth in Fantasy points per
route run. And he can't be a word wide receiver.

(28:18):
One I believe it.

Speaker 4 (28:21):
I believe it. I love this call.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
So, Alfredo, Obviously, you don't need to draft Flowers as
a wide receiver one to get him. He's going in
that mid twenties range. He's ranked wide receiver twenty seven
in consensus, is ADP's wide receiver twenty five. Where would
you be interested in drafting him given the upside that
you see? Oh?

Speaker 3 (28:39):
Man, so let me.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
I'm looking at my rankings now. I've got him around
wide receiver twenty three, and oh it's beautiful. I can
be talked into moving that up even a little bit,
especially when you just start to look at it like
I've got him next to DeVante Smith, and I think
there's a very real case that the upside might be
higher for Za Flowers as his team's wide receiver one.
So well, man, i'd be comfortable taking him in that

(29:03):
early wide receiver twenty to twenty five range, No problem.

Speaker 4 (29:07):
Yep, I've got him a wede receiver twenty two. Yeah,
we're we're I mean, we're basically saying the same thing.

Speaker 5 (29:11):
I've got him at wide receiver twenty two, and he
is inside my top fifty overall players.

Speaker 4 (29:16):
I got him at forty eighth.

Speaker 5 (29:18):
And I think that he's in a long not a
long tier. But I think, like if you were to
tell me right before week one both Mark Andrews and
Za Flowers are going in the third and fourth round
of drafts, right now, I'm not gonna be surprised.

Speaker 1 (29:32):
All right, So that was one of your picks as well, Debro,
So give me your second guy that you're picking.

Speaker 5 (29:36):
So again investing in second year guys that flashed in
their rookie season, and I understand this wasn't the flash
that we were all hoping for out of his rookie season.
I'm not willing to bury Jackson Smith and Jigba. I
think he can break out. And I think if you
look at the deeper metrics in his usage, which was
let's just get this out there was criminal last year.

(29:59):
The way they used him in Seattle was absolutely criminal.
And we also, because this is also we don't talk
about things that are not brought up on a consistent basis.

Speaker 4 (30:08):
All the hurt and.

Speaker 5 (30:09):
Disappointment about Jackson Smith and Jigbug always gets brought up,
and it's always like, well, yeah, we didn't really factor it.

Speaker 4 (30:16):
Enough of time of Locke it can we also talk
about it.

Speaker 5 (30:18):
He walked into the season dealing with a wrist injury,
and he wasn't fully healthy until probably half the season,
if not later into the season. So that doesn't get
equated enough into what we talk about how his rookie
year played out. So now if we want to look,
like go into the deeper numbers of how he was used,
because this was also a huge narrative of him coming

(30:38):
out as a prospect. Cann he win on the outside?
Is he's just a slot wide receiver. I don't know
if he can really do that or stretch the field
if you look at the deeper metrics for Jackson Smith
and Jigba. I want him to play out more wide
this year, and I think that can happen.

Speaker 4 (30:52):
We have a new.

Speaker 5 (30:53):
Offensive coordinator, and anybody that tells you they know exactly
how the Seattle offense is going to run is lying
to you because none of us know. And could we
go with the low hanging furd of saying the narrative
of being like, oh, well, they have a defensive mind
a head coach, so they're gonna run the ball.

Speaker 4 (31:10):
Sure.

Speaker 5 (31:11):
Okay, now how about we talk about the fact that
they added an offensive coordinator who let Michael Pennix just
grip it, rip it and chuck it down the freaking
field last year. So I don't know what this offense
is gonna look like this year. As to say, is
the range of outcomes for what they could be is
wider than people are willing to discuss. And we don't
know what this offense is gonna look like. So saying

(31:31):
that Jackson Smith and Jeguba, considering what he showed in
his rookie year, cannot play outside is ridiculous because if
you look at amongst one hundred and twenty six qualifying
wide receivers last season, out wide, he ranked fourth in
targets per route run, he was fifteenth in yards per
route run. And guess what his at nitt and change

(31:55):
much at all? He was six point five versus if
you look at his slot numbers seventy eighth, targets per
roupt run eighty seven, then yards per route run his
eight out was six point two.

Speaker 4 (32:04):
He was much much.

Speaker 5 (32:05):
Better with the perimeter route tree that they task him with.
So put him on the perimeter, let him go do
his damn thing, and if we get more passing volume
and deep shots in this offensive line because where we've
also talked about the Seattle offensive line and how bad
they were last year. If all those things come to
fruition this season, I know it's a lot of ifs.

(32:27):
I'm just betting on talent and a player that if
you look at the real numbers for him, he had
a much better rookie season than people are giving him
credit for.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
I was going to ask a follow up to you,
de Bro, but I'm gonna give you a chance to
catch your breath after that.

Speaker 5 (32:42):
I had to lay it out there, man, because I
know people are gonna hate that sho and they're gonna say, yeah,
but I got burned by JSN.

Speaker 4 (32:48):
Nah, it's gonna be run for his office. Nah, all
that crap. I know it's gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
Well, so, ALFREDA. I don't know where you stand on JSN.
And if you're optimistic on him or not. If you
are optimistic, if you're looking at a chart of reasons,
why what percentage of that is? Like his evaluation as
a prospect, because I like adored him coming into the
NFL Versus the flashes that Debro's referencing that you might
have seen in his rookie.

Speaker 2 (33:12):
Year, So I am optimistic on JSN. I've got him
in my top forty wide receivers for Fantasy this year.
And I kind of did that disagreement with my co
host the other day, and for me, so much of it.
If we're talking about like the pie chart of what
it is, I'd say it's about forty percent knowing that
he's already got the talent right. The other sixty percent

(33:32):
to me because we see so many good, like talented
players just not get the usage that they deserve, and
it could often Trigg going to exactly and what I
love is Ryan Grubb coming in as the new offensive
coordinator for this team and bringing in that same offense
we assume that he used in Washington and Deebro the
thing that you pointed out was the injustice of how

(33:52):
JSN was used last year on these shallow targets. Talking
about a guy that was seventy seventh in average depth
of target, which is just absolutely nuts. And the thing is, like,
I don't even think it matters if he's gonna get
used in the slot or out wide. Ryan Grubb was
able to use his slot wide receiver's downfield all the time.
We saw that with Jalen McMillan. We saw that when
Jalen Polk would go inside into the slot, and even

(34:14):
back in college, this was one of the things I
remember putting on the scattering report for JSN is that
he is surprisingly good at tracking the deep ball from
the slot. So I don't know what the Seahawks staff
was looking at last year when they utilized him, where
they're like, let's just use this guy in really short,
incremental routes. He's incredibly talented with the deep ball, and
I think that Ryan Grubb is going to unlock that

(34:34):
quite a bit.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
I'm happy to hear that you guys are both very
excited about that pick, because I do think, to Deebro's point,
like you think of historically like the first ride receiver
drafted in year two, like people are usually pretty excited
about that. And I think you're right deep Ry, I
don't think a lot of people are really, you know,
sort of feeling the love for JSN going into this
season just because of you know, the disappointment of last year.
But I think that there's a really strong cases to me.

Speaker 5 (34:58):
There's also this certainty that they know Seattle is gonna
be run.

Speaker 4 (35:03):
Heavy, Like yeah, and I just pushed back against that because.

Speaker 5 (35:07):
I'm like, no, we really don't know that considering this
marriage of the offensive corner in.

Speaker 4 (35:12):
The head coach.

Speaker 1 (35:14):
Yeah, I know that he's a defensive guy obviously. I
know McDonald is a Ravens fan, But I mean it's
a first year head coach. We don't know what kind
of offense he's gonna see as the correct one to
run if you want to be run heavy.

Speaker 5 (35:25):
Why the hell did they bring in Ryan Grubb? Tell
me that, like, why would the marriage make sense?

Speaker 1 (35:30):
That's the best point of all. Yeah, in terms of
the run heaviness. So yeah, we can move on from
that one. ALFREDA. Who's your next second year guy you're picking?

Speaker 2 (35:38):
I gotta talk about Tank dell Man, Like this is
a guy that had we seen in a full season
from him, I think we'd all be a lot more excited.
And I'll get into like, I'm not.

Speaker 3 (35:46):
Worried about Stefan Diggs.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
I talked about it so much on my last episode
we did of the Football Guys Fantasy Football show where
I talked about Steffan Diggs as a rankings faller. There's
a million and one reasons that's why. But we're talking
about Tank Dell and why he could be the breakout
top twelve rookie or top twelve wide receiver. Last year,
you look at what he was able to do man,
and he hit all the metrics that you wanted to see.
He was sixteenth in yards per route run, second highest

(36:09):
amongst the rookie class, and Nico Collins was also twelfth
in average depth of target. So I mean you're looking
at this team who was able to win deep, and
that's what TJ.

Speaker 3 (36:19):
Stroud liked to do.

Speaker 2 (36:20):
He led all quarterbacks in average depth of target. So
this is a team that wants to throw the ball
down the field. That's something that Stefan Diggs started to
struggle with quite a bit last year. So people being
worried about Stefan Diggs coming in here, honestly, I do
think we're gonna see quite a bit of Stefan Diggs
going to the slot and quite a bit of Tank
Dell being able to win on the outside. This offense
wants to win deep, they want to win on intermediate routes.

(36:41):
That's what Tank Dell was doing really well last year.
Digs out routes, corners, comeback routes. He was able to
do those phenomenally. I'm just absolutely enamored by the study
of first downs per route run and how that translates
to more fantasy predictability. Shout out to Ryan heath Over
at Fantasy Points, because he's doing the lord's work right now,
putting together that data and finding that it's the most

(37:06):
predictive stat of fantasy success. And when you look at it,
tank Dell was number excuse me, I got it written
down here.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
He was ill. He was number thirteen excuse me, fourteen fourteen.

Speaker 2 (37:18):
An eleven out of those thirteen players ahead of him
finished as top twelve wide receivers. So you're telling me
this is like, the results are absolutely there. The numbers
make sense, they matter, and tank Dell's got it like
we are. You could just just even just watch them,
just watch them, and I know I hate people hate that.
I like, watch the film, bro, just watch the game,
trust me. But like, this is a very good player.

(37:39):
The path for tank Dell to be a top twelve
or at least top fifteen wide receiver is extremely realistic
with CJ. Stroud and with that offense, I love the
discount that we're getting because of Stefan Diggs being added
to that team, and I mean the ADP average draft
position right now for Tank Dell wide receiver twenty seven
is just insanely good value. So yeah, I'm going to

(37:59):
take that all day. And Guys, I don't know about you,
but I'm really really excited about the Texans offense going
into twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (38:06):
Yeah. I feel like every time we have a conversation
about any Texans player on this show, I just come
away thinking, like, as much as I love the depth
of quarterback this year, I might just need to make
sure I get Stroud in a lot of places because
I just love so many of the pieces there and
how I think it's all going to come together. I'm
just very excited about this offense in general. But yeah,
Dell is a big part of that. You know, even
a more rudimentary, you know, metric rather, you know, rather

(38:29):
than the kind of stuff you were diving into. If
full season pace was like over a thousand yards and
almost eleven touchdowns as a rookie who was not a
first round pick, who was quote unquote undersized, I mean,
it's like it's just very exciting what we've literally seen
him do when he's on the field, let alone what
we think we can project him to do going forward.
So I love this call and of the you know,

(38:51):
I think you can make a reasonable case for various
iterations of how you want to rank the options in
the Texans passing offense. But if I'm ranking the ones
who I think have the best chance of being a
top twelve receiver, I'm starting that list with Tank Dell.
Just the connection that he and Strout had last year
was I mean, it was obvious to anybody watching the game,
just based on the eye test alone, how much you
liked throwing to him. Deebro, I know you're a Tank

(39:12):
Dell guy as well.

Speaker 5 (39:13):
Yeah, I love Tank. And it's funny because I put
this out on Twitter. I think it was the day
before Stefan Diggs got traded there, and I already felt
like the disrespect for Tank Dell was real because of
just what people saw in the end, the end of
the season taste that was left in their mouth, like
with Tank not being there and Nico being just getting
alpha level volume. But if you look back last year,

(39:35):
even before Diggs was there, when Nico and Tank were
playing full time roles. So in the seven full games,
that they both played Tank best at him and everything.
He had a higher target chair than Nico, he had
a higher air yard chair, higher weighted opportunity, and he
beat him in fantasy points per game.

Speaker 4 (39:52):
So the only small.

Speaker 5 (39:56):
Modicum of worry that I have for Tank Dell, and
this is part to me just trying to bake some
things like learn from year every year. It was the
injury he sustained and is he going to be one
hundred percent go for when the season happens, And I'm
optimistic I think it's gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (40:14):
I have him ranked.

Speaker 5 (40:15):
I kind of bounce him between low end wide receiver
too high end wide receiver on the daily. So I'm
fully in on this because if he is one hundred
percent and he's ready to rock, yeah, he can get there, man,
he absolutely can.

Speaker 1 (40:28):
Do you bro Le's stick with you for your next
second year pick.

Speaker 5 (40:31):
So this one, I'm gonna say the chances of this
working out are very slim. But it's a guy ever
going into this bucket of second year wide receivers and
trying to mine value, especially in the later rounds. A
guy that when we saw him actually as a full
time starter, he earned volume and now, Look, I know

(40:52):
a lot of people are willing to, you know, pick
up their favorite wide receiver from the New England Patriots
right now, or is it Javon Baker. People loving Kendrew
Bourne because what he's done in previous seasons, that it
could be Pop Douglas if he can retain the starting
role on that team. In the eight games we saw
him play at least fifty percent of the snaps, there

(41:13):
is a lot to like about Pop Douglas. And some
of this comes down to, Look, I don't know who's
going to be the starter for the Patriots in Week one,
if it's Jacoby Brissett, or if it's Drake May, if.

Speaker 4 (41:24):
It's Jacoby Precent, what's wrong with that?

Speaker 5 (41:27):
Haven't we seen enough out of Jacoby Brissett to call
him basically the dollar store version of Geno Smith. He's
played extremely freaking good when he's been on the field
of the last two years, So saying that he can't
do that in New England, I'm not willing to do that,
especially because he also knows the system and with that
type of quarterback play. Looking at that high of a
floor and much less even the ceiling of what either

(41:48):
one of those guys could provide if Drake May were
to hit the ground running Pop Douglas last year in
those eight games, at least fifty percent of the snaps,
twenty point eight percent target share, twenty four point four
percent first reach here, those led the team. So if
none of these other guys can grab that number one
wide receiver thrown and take it over, I'm not willing

(42:11):
to rule it out being Pop Douglas. And is there
a hard case to make for.

Speaker 4 (42:15):
Him being a wide receiver? One yes, But what do
we talk about, guys? It all comes back.

Speaker 5 (42:21):
To volume, and we believe that talent dictates earning targets
and that's the way it goes. So we saw Pop
do that in his rookie season. I'm not going to
can him out that he could do that in his
second year.

Speaker 1 (42:33):
Debro, you make an admirable, admirable case. But I think
this sort of reflects what we talked about before the show,
that it's kind of hard to pick second your guys
this year. It's obviously Pooka already did it, so he's
not eligible, and then a lot of those first rounders,
like relative to expectations, may be disappointed or they're in
an offense with Justin Jefferson or you know, et cetera,

(42:54):
et cetera. So I think I think the fact that
we're getting to pop Douglas not a knock on him.
I think he's a per good player. But you're right,
it's kind of hard to see that case. And again,
you did a good job, you know, attempting it, but
there's just not that many names that are that thrilling.
As you know, in the third year guys, it was
oh yeah, clearly like he's already being ranked that way.
It's not really the case with the second year guys.

(43:15):
So and I think Douglas reflects that, Alfred. Do you
have any quick thoughts on Douglas.

Speaker 3 (43:19):
I think he's a fine player.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
I think that the way that the Patriots drafted allows
for Douglas to still have a role.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
They drafted guys.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
That want to win on the outside and win a
little bit deeper, and I think that Douglas is still
gonna have that nice role in the slot. I've still
got him around that like wide receiver fifty to sixty
range next to guys that are similar Josh Downs players
like that. When I turned on the film to watch
Pop Douglas last year.

Speaker 3 (43:42):
I was pleasantly surprised. He was one of those guys that.

Speaker 2 (43:44):
I probably overlooked in the pre draft process, and when
I got to see him actually get out there and
earn targets and earn playing time, that was the biggest thing. So,
I mean the talents there, we just got to see
who's going to be the quarterback for this team and
how good that offense is really going to be.

Speaker 5 (43:59):
So the only thing I add here is I would
have picked if we didn't have all the off field
stuff going on and we don't even know when he's
going to play. I think the easy answer to add
to this segment would have been Rashid Rice. But we
may have no clue when even we're going to see
him this season. So it's a guy that I couldn't
add to this list.

Speaker 1 (44:19):
Yeah, it's worth mentioning that he, you know, based on
profile and everything, is you know, maybe more exciting than
some of these other names, but obviously has a pretty
big red flag there. Alfred, who's the last second you're
guy you're going to bring up?

Speaker 2 (44:30):
By the way before I say this guy, I mean,
it's sad to hear that Jordan Addison just retired. I
guess we're all both We're just going to ignore him
here entirely. I think there's just probably some uneasiness there.

Speaker 1 (44:41):
But the guy that I.

Speaker 2 (44:42):
Want to talk about here is Jaden Reid. And we
talked about, you know, wanting pieces from that good Packers offense,
and I actually wanted to go originally with Jackson Smith
the JIGBA, But I just I think that the path
for Jaden Reid to be top twelve or even top
fifteen is a little bit clearer than it is for
Jackson Smith. The but Jordan Love appears to be a
better quarterback than Gino Smith at the moment. That offense

(45:04):
seems to be just a little bit better, not as
much transitioning going on, and the Packers' offense should just
be getting better in general. It's a bunch of players
that are no longer rookies and lining up in the
wrong spot and running routes to the wrong place. This
is going to be a quarterback getting his second full
season as the starter. And it took a little while
for not only Jordan Love but for Jayden Reid to
get going. And once Jayden Reid did get going, from

(45:24):
Week seven on he was the wide receiver fourteen in
points per game, he's top twenty five and first downs
per route run, the yards per route run, which means
he wasn't just this gadget guy. He was actually being
relied on downfield when it mattered most. He was a
dependable guy, keeping drives alive for Jordan Love and so
much of that for when quarterbacks take that next step

(45:44):
early on in their careers, and I know Jordan Love
has been in the league for a while, but he
hasn't been starting for a while. It's finding the guys
they can depend on. Quarterbacks are humans too, and mentally,
it's finding the guy he can depend on consistently, and
that guy was Jayden Reid. And I mean top twelve
and targets per route run is the thing that really
sticks out to me. It's ahead of guys like Garrett Wilson,
Stefan Diggs and Pukina Kuo. So if I really want

(46:07):
to hang my hat on something that says that Jaden
Reid can go out there and earn targets, which I
know Debro actually he put it.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
He laid it out very.

Speaker 2 (46:14):
Nicely that when Christian Watson was in the field he
was earning more. The tough thing is, is Christian Watson going.

Speaker 3 (46:20):
To be on the field?

Speaker 2 (46:21):
So if I'm going to pick someone that I can
draft a little bit later that has that high upside
that can also be used anywhere in the field, slot,
out wide, even taking some snaps out of the backfield,
which he did quite a bit with some rushing touchdowns. Yeah,
I'm gonna look at Jayden Reid and I just I
love the draft value for him right now, so we
can see even better production for him in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (46:41):
Debra, is somebody who plays in a dynasty league with you,
I can say that you have like aggressively been selling
Jayden Reid. Is that a reflection of your just excitement
about Christian Watson. Do you have a problem with Jane
Reid the player or you just think you can kind
of sell high and get good value on him.

Speaker 5 (46:58):
I think you can kind of sell hot, like in
dynasty circles, you could sell.

Speaker 4 (47:01):
High on him. Is the talent there for Reid? Absolutely?

Speaker 5 (47:06):
I think really what we're trying to paint here is
a picture also that we're investing in a good offense
and one of these guys we believe is gonna pop
and you know, so it could be like pick your flavor.
Is it Christian Watson, is it Dantavian Wicks? Is Jayden Reid?

Speaker 4 (47:19):
And stuff?

Speaker 5 (47:20):
I think you can make a case for a lot
of these different guys based off the efficiency metrics. What
scares me a little bit about Reid is do we
get that dairy Beilt, Deebo Samuel usage again this year?

Speaker 4 (47:32):
It could happen.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
It's possible, but I don't know if it's definitively gonna happen.
Considering it again, do we get some more of those
short area targets of the running back usage with Marshaun
Lloyd that maybe those touches went to Jane Reid out
of the backfield last year. And the other thing is
Jane Reid wasn't even a full time player in the offense.
So there's some parts of pieces like Ken Jayden Reid

(47:53):
get there. Is this offense good enough? Is the quarterback
play good enough? Is he good enough as a player?
That's all possible. There's just some hurt that I think
he has to overcome to get there. But there's a
path for it.

Speaker 1 (48:05):
By the way, since Alfredo brought him up. I actually
do think it's worth kind of just quickly addressing Jordan
Addison because obviously, if you look at the first round
ride receivers, which are the guys that you would think
would be the natural fits here. Obviously nobody's picking Quentin
Johnston and we named the other two, but we didn't
name Jordan Addison for me personally, and I'm not, you know,
picking these players. The reason I would shy away is,

(48:26):
you know, we're all expecting Justin Jefferson to be a
wide receiver one, and it's really hard for me to
imagine JJ McCarthy in year one, given the limited experience
he had throwing the ball, that Michigan supporting two wide
receiver ones, and if we're just locking in Jefferson as
one of those guys, it's hard to see a second debro.
I know you are as big a JJ McCarthy fan
as any. Do you think there's a case to be

(48:47):
made for Addison here or are you? You know, you
obviously had the chance to pick him and shows not to.

Speaker 5 (48:52):
I I know, because here's the reality of Jordan Addison's
rookie season. I hate to tell people this, but he was,
he is clinically massively overrated.

Speaker 4 (49:01):
If you look at all the.

Speaker 5 (49:02):
Things that we should be focusing on in his first
year and looking at how you project those to his
second season. The guy lived off the touchdowns. It was
all touchdown production, and that only got him into wide
receiver three territory. If you look at the deeper metrics
for Jordan Addison, the reason I didn't bring him up
here is because he didn't prove that he can either
be efficient enough outside of the touchdowns, which.

Speaker 4 (49:25):
Are fluky year of year. We know this.

Speaker 5 (49:27):
The deeper metrics, and one of them that Alfredo alluded
to and talked about Ryan Heath and shout out to
Ryan Heath again. He was fifty eighth in first downs
per route run. He was fifty first in yards per
route run. And this is amongst eighty one qualifying wide receivers.
Those two numbers scere the ever love him, but jesus
out of me considering okay, so what are we hoping

(49:49):
for that he replaces ten touchdowns in his rookie season
that only got him up to being a wide receiver three.
Now there's a reason I love Jordan Addison off my
list is because I don't have a lot of faith
in it at all.

Speaker 1 (50:01):
That's interesting. I have not thought of him as overrated.
I see what you mean about being like someone dependent
on the touchdowns last year, but he was also a
twenty one year old rookie who was playing with like
some pretty poor quarterback play in the back half of
the season. So I still find myself fairly I mean,
I get I wouldn't pick him as a wide receiver one,
but I still find myself somewhat optimistic about him as
a player. What do you make of Addison Alfredo.

Speaker 2 (50:22):
I think if you're trying to galaxy brain a little
bit here and you want to be maybe sneaky with
your league, if you see him falling in your drafts
in redraft and you want to just take him as
one of these late round flyers, you can do that
because you're likely not going to be seeing t J.
Hockinson to start the year. And if Sam Darnold comes
out there and starts and you get maybe a little
bit of some offensive production, you could get a few

(50:43):
good weeks from Jordan Addison and he immediately becomes a
trade block kind of guy that you put out there.
So there's some redeeming value. I just don't see him
as the guy that could be breaking out into top
fifteen one, top twenty four.

Speaker 5 (50:57):
Yeah, just to throw this out there, he was fourth
in receiving touchdowns last year, behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek
Kill and Ceedee Lamb. Does do any of us believe
that he can reproduce that in his second season?

Speaker 1 (51:10):
I don't no, But my point was more I'm more
I'm more so optimistic about him long term than I am,
particularly for this upcoming season. The second year guys that
we picked just quick recap here Z Flowers, which you
picked twice. Both guys had him then Jysn Tank, Dell
De Mario Douglas or Pop Douglas, uh and Jaden Reid.
So I asked you guys to rank the chances for

(51:32):
your top five rookies to finish as wide receiver ones
in their rookie seasons. You had the exact same top threes.
You both had Marvin Harrison Junior one, Milik Neighbors to
Romadoone's ay three. I think the cases are obvious for
Harrison and Neighbors, and if you guys want to hit
on them, you're welcome to. But I think those are
very clear. They're going to be high level target earners
and their offenses. They're uber, uber talented prospects who went

(51:53):
high in the draft. I think those are clear, Rama Dunday.
I was a little surprised, given we already talked about
with JSN what we just saw from a talented rookie
and I know Jayson like you know, we like Roma
Dunze better than JAYSN was as a prospect, but a
talented rookie, first round pick coming in as the third
in the pecking order in that offense with the literal
same offensive coordinator that we just saw. Do this to JSN.

(52:15):
So as much as I love a Duneesa and you know,
a dynasty different story, I was a little surprised that
you guys both had him three. Alfredo, is this just
strictly a you love the prospects so much? Or do
you see something in this Bears offense where there's maybe
a path to him kind of exceeding expectations in terms
of the type of target share we might think he
would get.

Speaker 2 (52:33):
I mean, obviously the prospect profile does play a good
bit here. He is a much better prospect than JSN
was or even is now as a pro. But there's
also these are different players, Like we can't go in
there and say that he's immediately the third wide receiver.
He's gonna be lining up on the outside quite a
bit more. I know Shane Walder than the offensive coordinator
who was with Seattle last year. I know he likes
to use eleven personnel, which is one running back, one

(52:55):
tight end, three wide receivers.

Speaker 3 (52:56):
He likes to do that plenty.

Speaker 2 (52:57):
But there's also a very realistic expectation here that when
they do go to two wide receiver sets, it could
actually be Romo Dunze who's out there, and they want
to keep Keenan Allen healthy and bring their older slot
wide receiver off the field. And I also, like I
will follow this narrative quite often, rookie quarterbacks with rookie
wide receivers, they get extra time together in these mini camps.
They're going out to press conferences together, they're going to

(53:19):
local games, like just guys being dudes, becoming friends and
getting that that that correlation.

Speaker 3 (53:25):
Together, that rapport.

Speaker 2 (53:26):
So I know that's one of those intangible things. But
I think there's a chance that we see a sort
of DK Metcalf Robert Woods hybrid role here for Roma
Dunze in Shane Waldron's offense, and those are two guys
that he's coached in the past. So I wouldn't be
surprised if Odonza does give us some fantasy value, and
we probably see it happen a little bit later down
towards the end of the season. He's one injury away

(53:47):
from being a top twenty four wide receiver in fantasy.

Speaker 1 (53:50):
Are you where are you ranking Adunza and where are
you ranking Keenan Allen.

Speaker 3 (53:55):
Let me pull it up.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
I've got Roma Dunza right now as my wide receiver
thirty nine, and I've got Keenan Allen as my wide
receiver thirty two, which I know is probably shockingly low
for how good Keenan Allen was last year.

Speaker 3 (54:08):
But I think Godunze is that good.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
And I just don't know this is this is a
four and against Like, I don't think that we see
Caleb Williams, for as great as he is, support three
fantasy relevant wide receivers. They've got two tight ends, they've
got a pass catching running back. There's a lot that
can be done out there, But uh, if I'm gonna
go and target one of these guys. I'm gonna target
Romaduonze because I think the ceiling is higher and the

(54:31):
cost is just gonna be so much less.

Speaker 1 (54:34):
What do you think about that, Debra, Yeah.

Speaker 4 (54:36):
I mean we're we're basically in lockstep.

Speaker 5 (54:39):
I've got Keenan Allen in that low end wide receiver
two high end three range Rome. I think the conversation like,
I've got him at wide receiver thirty six right now,
but I mean think somewhere in the wide receiver three range.

Speaker 4 (54:52):
It really. I mean, Alfredo just crushed this.

Speaker 5 (54:55):
He's one injury away, and yes, I love that he
brought up that these are absolutely different archetypes of players.

Speaker 4 (55:01):
So if you're.

Speaker 5 (55:02):
Trying to even transpose what we saw in Seattle to this,
if you want to talk about who's going to play
the JSN like short area role.

Speaker 4 (55:11):
That's Keenan Allen. That's not gonna be real on.

Speaker 1 (55:13):
The doonsay deepro just before we move on from the
big three, for the audience members who maybe aren't as
like way in the weeds of Dynasty and rookies, pick
one of Harrison or Neighbors and make the case for
why they have a good shot at this.

Speaker 4 (55:27):
I mean, and then Harrison Junior is going to be
the guy. I mean.

Speaker 5 (55:29):
But the thing about it is we're already projecting that
because he's a wide receiver one and almost everybody's ranks,
you know, So that's not crazy.

Speaker 4 (55:37):
I think just the easy case is the volume.

Speaker 5 (55:39):
You know, you look at the volume for him, and
the volume is not hard to see, man, and it's
it's not hard to see him getting up there. Like
looking even at Arizona's passing volume last year through five
hundred and fifty five freaking times, if he earns a
twenty five percent target, Chare, that would have been thirteenth
in targets amongst all wide receivers last year. So what
if he earns like a twenty six twenty eight percent target,

(56:00):
if he's that freaking good and it's only literally him
and tray Ming Bride to fight over targets, like, that's
the easiest case.

Speaker 4 (56:06):
To make for him being a wide receiver one.

Speaker 5 (56:07):
And I don't disagree with it, Like he's a water
receiver one of my ranks.

Speaker 1 (56:11):
Yeah, I like, I say the easy case of the volume.
The easy case might also just be that he's like
a generational prospect in most people's eyes and one of
the best receivers to enter the league in quite some time. Alfredo,
I want to ask you about Malik Neighbors then, you know,
sort of just the same thing though the volume, you know,
ability to get earn a target share is very obvious
in this offense and also just again like not a
generational prospect. Maybe I don't know, some stats had him,

(56:34):
you know, up there with Harrison obviously this year, but
really really, really really good.

Speaker 2 (56:38):
Yeah, I mean the thing that worries me is not
the talent with Neighbors and long term, I think he's
perfectly fine for Dynasty. I do think there's a possibility
we see in New York Giants rebuild because this could
be one of the worst offenses in the league and
they could be really really bad this year, so we
could see do quarterback do coach a whole new everything
next season. So for Dynasty, that's the smallest concern. But

(56:59):
he's just too talented for me to really care too
much about that. For Redraft, I think the floor could.

Speaker 3 (57:04):
Fall out, like from underneath him.

Speaker 2 (57:05):
And it's not a reflection of him as a player,
it's just Daniel Jones as the quarterback guys, and if
Daniel Jones, like, even if he plays well enough to
keep the job, the best season that he's had out
of a wide receiver has been wide receiver twenty five
was Sterling Shepherd. Neighbors is better than that. So how
high does the ceiling really get?

Speaker 3 (57:24):
Are we thinking?

Speaker 2 (57:25):
Maybe best case scenario we're looking at, Molik Neighbors is
like a wide receiver eighteen on the season, and I
know in underdog drafts he's gone as like wide receiver
nineteen or twenty. I've got him ranked quite a bit lower.
I've got him around wide receiver twenty eight right now.
I just I struggle with the risk of how bad
that offense could be. And what I see is very
similar to what we saw last year where Bryce Young

(57:46):
and the Panthers offense was really bad, and even though
Adam Thielen was getting a ton of targets, there just
wasn't enough valuable targets on that offense and there wasn't enough.

Speaker 3 (57:54):
Touchdowns to go around.

Speaker 2 (57:55):
And Dealan finishes the wide receiver twenty five in points
per game, So I think there's a very similar path
for Malik Neighbors to kind of finish the same way.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
So, like I said, Harrison one neighbors to Dounesday three,
you guys are in lockstep there. Four and five are
where you guys differ ALFREDA. Who are your four and five?

Speaker 2 (58:13):
And why So I've got Brian Thomas at four And
for me, it's based on the trends of Doug Peterson,
Trevor Lawrence. You know what, We'll probably see Christian Kirk
and having Ingram be the top target earners on this
team and probably get about like two hundred and fifty targets.
Then you start to break down the numbers and the projections,
you're looking at potentially about two hundred more targets that
are going to be split between Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas.

(58:34):
And that's just based on how Trevor Lawrence has targeted
players in the past. And Brian Thomas, I think is
the far better player than Gabe Davis. And so you're
looking at a guy who could be earning six to
seven targets per game and it could be really explosive
with especially with his downfield ability. So if I'm going
to project that, you know, I know there are some
things he does need to clean up in his game
and get a little bit more nuanced with his route

(58:55):
running and better release package and stuff like that. But
I think the say very intentional pick. The Jaguars want
to use Brian Thomas the kind of similar way they
used Calvin Ridley last year, and I don't think that's
a bad thing. And that at five, I've got Xavier Worthy,
who very similar to Brian Thomas, could see heavy target share,
explosive plays, all the same jazz I said before, except

(59:16):
now we've got Patrick Mahomes, a much more proven quarterback.
I think the problem here is that he could be
third or maybe even fourth in the line for those targets.
I don't think the targets will be as easy to earn.
We have to see what happens with Rashet Rice, And
I mean you also get a little bit of like
the ven Diagram crossover with Marquise Brown, who can do
some very similar things to Xavier Worthy. So both these teams,

(59:37):
it feels like they went out and they bought, like
they bought the players that they already had at home,
and it's going to be difficult for them to earn targets.
But if they do, and if they're on the field,
they could surprise the heck out of a lot of people.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
That's a good way to put it. The players they
already had at home. Deever, who do you have four
and five?

Speaker 5 (59:55):
I've got Worthy at four, and I think that's just
the cases easy to make. It's Patrick for Hollywood Brown.
We can't trust his health at this point in his career.
He said, so many foot injuries. You have one last
year too, So I can't really put it on him
to play a full compliment of games. Rahi Rice, we
don't know when we're gonna see him, so we could

(01:00:16):
Kansas City and the worst iteration of this offense. If
She is out and Hollywood's hurt, it literally could be
Travis Kelcey and Xavier Worthy competing for the target lead
every single week. And that's not hard to visualize this year,
So Worth these number four. Lad mcconkey's my number five here,
and people could be surprised by that. With all the
narratives of the Chargers offense and how much they're gonna run,

(01:00:38):
you still have freaking Justin Herbert throwing the ball. Man,
You still have Justin Herbert throwing the ball. And this
is a wide receiver room that where if you want
to talk about the clear path to earning that type
of wide receiver one volume, if the passing rate surprises,
like maybe the Bolts defense is not great this year,

(01:00:58):
maybe they're trailing more than they into, maybe they can't
run the ball that dang well, considering it's Gus the
bus with two flat tires and it's JK. Dobbins, we
didn't know if he's gonna make it out of camp.
We're hoping Kamani Videll is a guy and a thing
this year. Like if those things don't happen, maybe the
Chargers throw the ball more than even Greg Rohman or
Jim Harball want to do this year. And we're just

(01:01:22):
talking about who has a clear path to earning volume?
And Ladd McConkey, like, we know the talent is there.
You look at his entire prospect profile. It's littered with
stuff that makes you go ooh and ah, And so
what are we talking.

Speaker 4 (01:01:35):
About the volume?

Speaker 5 (01:01:36):
There's a clear path there, So I'm gonna go lad
off the beaten path here a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:01:41):
Last thing, was there any rookie receiver that, if we
had gone deeper, you really wanted to include as a possibility.
I mean, I know, Debro, you're not a fan of
Kean Coleman, but obviously the opportunity to earn targets is
likely going to be there. I mean, Xavier la Guett
was a first round pick. I don't think we would
certainly expect that were there any other names that still
at Debra.

Speaker 5 (01:02:01):
The one if we're gonna go further down the board,
and the easy case to make for him is T
Higgins moves on or T Higgins is hurt and Joe
Burrow We've seen it time and time again, can support
two wide receivers and do it really freaking well.

Speaker 1 (01:02:17):
It'd be Jermaine Burton Alfredo. Was there a name for
you that you wanted to include but didn't ever.

Speaker 2 (01:02:23):
Very similarly, if someone gets hurt or someone misses time,
and this happens in this offense quite a bit, Ricky
Piersoll becomes really valuable player I like so much, and
he's in one of the best offenses in the league.

Speaker 3 (01:02:37):
And I get it. They've got christ McCaffrey and George
Kittle and all those guys.

Speaker 2 (01:02:40):
But I mean, I don't think there's a player on
their offense that I could list right now that hasn't
missed their fair share of games in their career. So
I think there's a reason that they invested a first
round picking this guy, even with all the other players healthy,
they want to use him. He's kind of like, Okay,
I'm not gonna say it. I'm not gonna say he's
like Debo, but there are some things that he can
do that fits the style and man, Ricky Piersol if

(01:03:04):
he gets an opportunity.

Speaker 3 (01:03:04):
This is a guy that.

Speaker 2 (01:03:05):
I loved, and even as much as I loved him,
I was still shocked he went in the first round.
So that tells you how much the Niners really like
him and want to utilize him.

Speaker 1 (01:03:13):
I adore Ricky Piersol, the prospect he outside of Odoonsay,
he's probably the most obvious guy in terms of if
somebody gets hurt, like watch out, because he all he
needs is the opportunity.

Speaker 4 (01:03:25):
And Debo's gone after Junior first.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I really like the peer. Saul
shout out as well. All right, we'll get out of
there on that ran through a ton of receivers there,
So thank you everybody for you know, sticking with us
for the full hour for Alfreda. Thank you so much
for joining us again and for debro. I'm Ryan Warmley.
We'll see you guys again next time. Thanks for listening
to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love

(01:03:48):
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by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros
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HOW DO YOU KNOW? | Identifying the Next Breakout WR1s in Fantasy Football (Ep. 1265)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}HOW DO YOU KNOW? | Identifying the Next Breakout WR1s in Fantasy Football (Ep. 1265)