Identifying The Next Breakout WR1s (Ep. 1574)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by Jake
Seey from the Athletic Guys. We are talking wide receivers
and we're doing a show that ericson you and I
have done a couple of years in a row now
of trying to identify these next breakout wide receiver one
seasons coming from guys who have not done it yet before.

(00:22):
We'll dive into that conversation coming up here. But also, Jake,
I mean we're here in mid May, it's like definitely
starting to get to be that time of year where
you know, you really do start diving more into redraft
here a couple of weeks post NFL Draft.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
I'm glad you said that because actually, over the next
six weeks, because there's spaces in between, this is the
time where I do my next breakout at every single position,
next breakout quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end,
and trying to find five is sometimes different. I know
we're actually gonna get into it, so I won't say why,
but it has to do with like the qualifications I
give breakouts, which once you eliminate a lot of players.

(00:56):
You're like, all right, I got a dozen people I
can pick from. So it's kind of interesting. It's going
to be you know, some people determine what breakout is differently.

Speaker 1 (01:05):
Eeric soon what's your process? Not necessarily for the breakout set,
because we'll get to that in the second, but just
like this time of year, starting to put together you
know those we've had early rankings for a few months,
but like really kind of trying to dive in, like
what are you doing right now in mid May to
get ready for the season?

Speaker 3 (01:20):
What am I not doing?

Speaker 4 (01:21):
I mean, I'm responsible for covering the wide receiver notes
sections for Fantasy pros and the rankings, so that's kind
of where I've done most of my research and digging
is in the receivers, but still looking at coaching changes,
looking at system changes, talking about you know, what teams
are saying about certain players, and we also have OTAs
going on, so I'm not paying too much attention to that.
It comes to some of these video again it's OTAs.

(01:43):
I'm not going to take too much from it. So
it's still looking at things, at least from the receivers perspective,
trying to make sure I remember everything correctly from last year,
because sometimes I think that we remember certain things about
certain players, but then when you look at the actual
box score, like, oh, like this guy actually quite the
quiet seasons, right, this guy quietly had one over a

(02:04):
thousand yards and ninety catches, Like that's really good.

Speaker 3 (02:06):
So trying to remember those.

Speaker 4 (02:07):
Specific things and making sure that that matches what the
actual production was like, and then as I project them forward.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
It is remarkable how much you forget between January and May,
and then you start circling back and you're like, oh, yeah,
I totally forgot I was excited about this or hated that,
or or you know, wanted to remember this about this player.
It happens every year, Jake. Besides those breakouts, anything going
on at the athletic.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
That's the big thing. Oh don't wait, I do be.
The precursor to that is the top backfields with potential
new leading running backs once you eliminate the obvious ones,
like teams that got rid of like Jevanti Williams is
no longer on the Broncos, Like that doesn't count because
that's like a layoup. But like the big ones where
it's like could it not be kiraen Williams next year.
So I'm going to like rank the potentials for these

(02:50):
backfields to change.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
That'll be a fun one to check out. Want to
remind everybody that all of our twenty twenty five consensus
rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com
slash rankings. Let's dive into the meat of the show,
and we want to start off just kind of having
a quick discussion on what goes into projecting a leap
into wide receiver one status, stuff like experience level, what
year in the league are they, the situation, has it changed,

(03:14):
new coaching staff, play call or quarterback stuff like that.
Are they a post hype sleeper, do they have some
pedigree coming out in the NFL draft, stuff like that.
So ericson for you what kind of goes into determining
who's going to make this list for you?

Speaker 4 (03:28):
So I know, I specifically look at red zone usage
and red zone targets and potential for that number to grow.
Last year, or at least for the wide receiver one
over the past I think six years, that player has
led the NFL on red zone targets every single year
on the dot So it's a good kind of predictor
of future fantasy success, even if you're not the number

(03:48):
one scoring player.

Speaker 3 (03:49):
Usually, if you look at the guys.

Speaker 4 (03:50):
That are top twelve receivers, they usually all have very
high red zone roles. So whether that's does this player
take on a bigger red zone role in their offense
this year ye, or do they capitalize on the red
zone targets maybe they got last year, but they didn't
score nearly as much. I know a guy that comes
to mind that will get into Romadoonze. He had a
lot of red zone targets, a lot of end zone targets,

(04:11):
did not score a lot of touchdowns, So he did
have the opportunity, but it did not come to fruition.
So in a different offense, does that change? Like asking
those types of questions. So that's one thing that I
look at, and then the other thing I wanted to
point out. So there's an article that was written on
Fantasy Pros a couple of years ago from Sam Reiner
where he basically broke down the thresholds for receivers becoming

(04:33):
wide receiver once for the first time. And this is
from a you know what year in the league. Are
they essentially so this was from twenty twelve to twenty
twenty one. Basically, the data from that article showed that
about fifty percent receivers become wide receiver once for the
first time in their second or third seasons. And then
the interesting nugget on it was after that it was rookies,
which is really apparent, and then fifth year wide receivers.

(04:56):
So you almost go through a long period of Okay,
you don't hit. There's like no year four hits because
like that year for some reason, just it's the last
year of your rookie contract. I think the fifth year
is a key point because usually it suggests you're probably
on a new team and you probably have a different quarterback,
and then maybe that's kind of what unlocks you. And
looking back at in this again, this article was just

(05:17):
from twenty twenty one, so I went back and added
the next three years of data. And it's interesting because
we've had the last three years, we've had a player
breakout as a wide receiver one for the first time,
either in year five or year six. And the common
part of all those receivers, they.

Speaker 3 (05:34):
Were all on new teams.

Speaker 4 (05:36):
So something to think about is who's a fifth or
sixth year wide receiver on a brand new team this year.

Speaker 3 (05:41):
Well over the past three years there.

Speaker 4 (05:43):
Has been a wide receiver one from that crop, and
we'll kind of dive into some of those players as
we get along here.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
Jake, what about you? What goes into your process for
determining these names.

Speaker 2 (05:52):
Basically, I'm looking for opportunity. There's a lot of stuff
like I'm not gonna like reiterate a lot of what
Andrews said, because a lot of those things go into it.
It's just overall, you know, red zone, end zone targets.
Obviously end zone targets are more valuable, but you look
at draft capital to tie into what Andrews said. Should
also read my article over the Athletic. By the way,
it's actually looked at first round wide receivers and how

(06:15):
often they are to hit. And I kind of broke
it down by ranking as a wide receiver three or higher,
two or higher and everything like that, and interesting it
kind of ties into the piece that andrew was just
talking about first round wide receivers draft capital wise, fifty
percent hit rate over the past I think it was
five or six years that I did. And then you
look further and as you said, is like a lot
of echo what andrew says, and it was only for

(06:36):
first year, but it also ties into exactly what he's saying,
tons of years, twos and three breakouts, and then it
flatlines after that, mostly because we're talking about first rounders.
A lot of first rounders, if they're on a new team,
it's probably because they're busts. So it's a little bit
different than what Andrews talking about. But looking for those
aspects because draft capital matters, opportunity matters. You look at
for target volumes, mattering you know on the new team,

(06:57):
did they step in as the potential number two or
number one? All these things come into play. And of
course there was an article I just wrote last year
too about pre snap motion and how valuable that is
for wide receivers, like huge value in pre snap motion
and one of the ones that was big last year
before he got hurt with Rashid Shaheed Kubiak is huge
on pre snap motion and the previous regime barely ever

(07:18):
did it. And so looking at those changes in offensive
coordinators and the kind of usages that you.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
Expect, ericson pulled up the names that we had done
on last year's version of this show good names, and yeah,
a lot of them were hits. I mean some of
the names that were thrown out and last year's I
think we formatted it a little more in terms of
trying to meet those thresholds of like we're picking year
one guys or picking year two guys, were picking your
three guys. This year it's a little bit different. But

(07:43):
some of the names that were thrown out last year.
Drake London, Garrett Wilson, who qualifies if you look at
year long not you know, points per game, you know,
JSN Molik, Neighbors, Brian Thomas Junior obviously a huge one.
Lad mccakey was I think wide receiver thirteen, So it
doesn't technically qualify, but know, for all TETs purposes, it
was a big hit.

Speaker 3 (08:02):
Sode receiver spiritually.

Speaker 1 (08:04):
A wide receiver word. So there were a lot of
names that we landed on as the show at ericson
who did we do the show with last year? Actually
don't remember. Was it Debro?

Speaker 3 (08:13):
Probably? I think it was probably Debro, But yeah, I'm gonna.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
Assume you picked all the all the correct names and
he picked the right names. Uh, So what we'll try
to do as as well this year as we did
last year. But before we dive in to those names,
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Speaker 1 (09:58):
All right, ericson, let's start with one of our we're
kind of categorizing as the imminent breakouts. These are kind
of the guys that we're kind of most putting stock
into breaking out into that wide receiver one status this season.

Speaker 4 (10:09):
Would go with wide receiver Jamison Williams for the Detroit Lions.
So last year he did finally break out for the
first time. He was wide receiver nineteen in total points
game and that was with games miss due to a
mid season suspension. And I want to give him a
lot of credit just because he was able to do
it despite really a lot of the Lion's main pieces
staying healthy and on the field, Like same Brown didn't

(10:30):
go down, Samuel Porta didn't go down. Now, maybe they
were playing through injuries, but Jamison Williams put himself in
a position to, oh, I'm going to score points even
though I'm not seeing necessarily eight plus ten plus targets
a game. He had elite efficiency thirty yards after the
catch per reception. He delivered high end spike weeks, so
when he was in your lineup, he delivered wide receiver

(10:50):
one weeks, he had three top six weekly finishes in
half PPR, and after week ten when he came back
from his suspension, he was wide receiver ten, averaging fourteen
fantasy points per game, twenty one percent target share. And
one thing I wanted to point out, and again when
I was going talking about what we started with trying
to figure out if I remembered things the right way.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
I remember that.

Speaker 4 (11:11):
There was a point where I felt like Jamison Williams
and amm Ros Saint Brown, their target share had been
really similar. At one point when I kept looking back
at the numbers, I'm like, wait, these don't match, Like
Saint Brown is dominating the total targets. But then I
look back at each game and really, there was that
one game against the Buffalo Bills in Week fifteen where
Saint Brown had eighteen targets, so like he like totally
wiped the floor with Jamison Williams. Now, again, you can't

(11:33):
just eliminate that game. Like Saint Brown was still the
target leader over that stretch of games from Week ten
throughout the playoffs, but if you remove that game, it's
basically equal between the two guys. So you saw Jamis
Williams start to eat more into Saint Brown's target share.
And something I've been thinking about is, I know when
we talk about the Bears really fixated on, Okay, who's

(11:54):
going to be the slot receiver because we know Ben
Johnson likes highlight the slot receiver. Well, what about the
other side of that, is the line's off, it's going
to be as focused on Amana Saint Brown operating from
the slot. Maybe they wide it up a little bit.
I mean, it's funny because we're already hearing the offensive coordinator,
the new guy for the Lions, John Morton, talk about
how he wants this to be a breakout year for
Jameson Williams, and I read that as wait, didn't he

(12:15):
already just break out? But this guy's like, no, we're
going to break out again. So I think Williams could
just has untapped potential. And I get that he's a
year four guy, so it doesn't fall on the bucket
of guys that usually break out. But carry me out,
carry me out as I make this, make the case,
and you guys can be like Ericson. That's a total
BS answer. He's only played thirty three games because he's
missed time because of injury and because of suspensions. So

(12:38):
thirty three games is more like that two seasons played.
So for what that's my argument for Okay, maybe he's
a year four, but spiritually, again, as we're talking about here,
it is kind of his season three.

Speaker 1 (12:49):
I did think about this when you were bringing up
the year four stuff earlier, but like you do think
of that for guys that aren't in the first round
as that contract year too. So I guess I'm surprised
that it hasn't happened more for people, you know, players
who are trying to kind of put their best foot forward.
That's I mean, I don't know how accurate that narrative is.
Sometimes it pans out, sometimes it doesn't, but you do
kind of think of it that way for the contract
to your guys. H James Williams, wide receiver, twenty seven

(13:12):
in our half PPR rankings. Jake is Jamo's somebody that
you are targeting as a breakout in that range.

Speaker 2 (13:18):
So to backtrack real quick, I can actually tell you
it's one hundred percent a myth. I did an article
on contract years. Yeah yeah, So I did it within
a ten percent variance of what their performance was beforehand
and even their best season. Then found out a third
perform better, a third perform worse, and a third perform
right on their mark for their entire career. So a
contract year, you can just throw it out the window.

(13:38):
It's a narrative that doesn't exist. Same thing as revenge
games one third one third, one third. I mean I
was like thirty two thirty four percent. But like I
did both those studies in Baltimore, like just straight down
the line James and Williams, I don't mind. I'm just
a little more hesitant basically because I'm looking at it
like Davanta Smith, which is the easy comp to make
and the one season devouta Smith cracked into. You're looking

(14:01):
at his highest target volume which he can get to.
I'm just concerned that Sam Laporter is gonna have a
back bounce back season after his lost season with some
injuries and things going wrong. We talked about Teslaw on
this very show like a week or two ago, and
I'm not saying he's a significant threat as a rookie
to be like, oh my god, Jamison's gonna lose snaps.
But I just look for somebody else getting involved in

(14:21):
this offense. As Ericson mentioned a new coordinator, so I
can see it happening. But if he gave me a
ranking out of like out of ten, I'd probably say
a two or of three, just because I think there's
enough options on this team. I'll draw the comparison into
mind when we get to it is. I just think
there's more competition with him than there would be on
some of these other options.

Speaker 1 (14:44):
Let's get to your first one here, Jake.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
Yeah. So for that argument's sake, being is Marvin Harrison.
And that's the biggest thing here is I just look
at the the opportunities behind him, Mike right now, last
year or Trey McBride was the number one, but being Harrison,
that he's number two twenty two, twenty three percent team
target share if you remember, and then after that James
Connor was actually fourth on the team behind Michael Wilson.

(15:06):
This is a team that it's basically the old school
Chiefs where it was tight end wide receiver Tyreek Hill,
Travis Kelcey fifty to sixty percent of the target share
every single week and for the full season. And that's
why I'm going to this. But I'm also going to
it because Marvin Harrison, even at its twenty two to
twenty three percent last year, I'm just gonna go from
watching football perspective of things, and it was just clear

(15:29):
that Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison did not have the
connection we want. You know, we go back to earlier
in that season when Marvin Harrison is doing jumping Jackson
in the middle of the field saying look at me,
and Kyler had him on his first read and just
never came back to him. And that's some of the
report in the NFL when he come For rookies quarterbacks
in general, is that knowing where they're going to be,
knowing what happens when things have to freelance, that connection

(15:51):
that we saw with Russell Wilson and Tyre Lockett for
years on end. It's just they knew what the other
person was thinking. And I think Murray and Harrison are
going to continue to develop, especially when you talk about
somebody like Kyler Murray, who, let's be honest, height does
matter because heighte matters, and also having that trust factor
of where to immediately look because he has to kind
of look through the lane of the offensive line versus

(16:11):
over it like a lot of quarterbacks can do. And
I think just as that report and knowledge of each
other continues to develop, Marvin Harrison is not a bust
of a prospect. Marvin Harrison still deserves to be in
the conversation of a top three wide receiver from last
year's draft class. And now you're talking about twenty five
twenty six percent from Kyler Murray and there's not a
lot from Kyler Murray to go around after that. But

(16:32):
that's okay because it's just them too. And I think
that if you're looking at Marvin Harrison creeping into that
back end, first round or first round wide receiver one
value with ninety receptions, twelve hundred yards and six or
seven touchdowns. I mean that again, I'm not coming for
Rickson when I say this, but like I give Well
Williams a two or three, I would give Harrison like
a seven. Unlike this potentially happening.

Speaker 1 (16:54):
Do you feel, Jake before we get to Ericson, that
it was more of a Kyler Marvin Harrison lack of
connection that caused the disappointing season. And by the way,
disappointing season was still over one hundred targets, eight hundred
and eighty five receiving around eight touchdowns as a rookie,
Like that's don't get kind of thrown off by like
the Pukahs, the Justin Jeffersons of the world. That is

(17:14):
a good rookie season, but their relative disappointment compared to
the hype. Do you put that more in the connection
with Kyler or the usage because he wasn't put in
a lot of friendly situations as a receiver for fantasy
points by the play caller.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
Here, I think both come into play. I'd put it
probably seventy thirty though. Of the connection again, you just
go back to it and that play that I used.
There was other opportunities where you saw that like Kyler
just he wasn't his first raad or something happened where
Kyler immediately had to bail on a play and his
first option was I know where Trey is going to
be or like you know, dump it off the Connor
and he just wasn't even looking in Harrison's direction. It

(17:48):
was somewhere in the middle of the season where he
had to bail out and Harrison just ran free because
it was busted coverage on it, and he just never
even looked to him or not even saw him. Where
you just you know those things and again he's not
going to see that every sing time. But it's that
connection again of having that you know, almost like brotherly
feel of like I just know what you're gonna do.

Speaker 1 (18:07):
Eric. So what do you think about Marvin Harrison Junior
this year?

Speaker 4 (18:10):
I think he's the quintessential post type breakout player because
he was just overdrafted last year.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
I know this one almost kind of felt easy.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
People don't want to draft him because they because he
was just overdrafted last year.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
So but now you're getting a value. I think the
talent is still there.

Speaker 4 (18:23):
I think the thing that we maybe overvalued the most
was not maybe him as a talent, but just the
landing spot with Kyler Murray. Like maybe that wasn't the best.
I mean, that's kind of every guest we've talked about.
Every time we brought up Marvin Harrison, I feel the
conversation has been back to Kyler Murray and about how
they just didn't really have that great connection. We talked
about it in the Tight End Show when I was
talking about Trey McBride. There's the reason why he didn't

(18:44):
score any touchdowns because they were jam and targets to
Marvin Harrison in the end zone. It didn't work out
that much. But like you said, the guy still scored
eight touchdowns last year as a rookie wide receiver.

Speaker 3 (18:53):
That's still really good.

Speaker 4 (18:55):
So you mayror in some Okay, can we add some receptions,
can we add more yards here? I don't really think
it can be worse than it was last year just
because it was really really the connection was not there.
So get another offseason with them working together. Yeah, I
think that Marvin Harrison, I think you're getting You're making
the same bet two years in a row, except he
now he's a lot cheaper, So I think he's an
easy breakout guy.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
Where's he ranked for you? Erickson?

Speaker 2 (19:17):
I think he's a wide receiver nineteen real real quick
to go back to that, Erickson brought up something that
I didn't even throw out. That's a really great point.
I had this pulled up earlier and I even forgot
to mention. This is insane. Eighteen end zone targets end
zone as in, he's in the end zone everybody to
nine for McBride. You wouldn't think that would be the
case when you have somebody like McBride last year. Like,
that's how big the disparity was.

Speaker 1 (19:39):
Yeah, that is, that's remarkable. That's like a really shocking
number to hear.

Speaker 3 (19:43):
Honestly, McBride could never scor any time.

Speaker 4 (19:45):
I mean it's not not anytime. Touchdowns on training Bride
every week.

Speaker 1 (19:51):
The disparate surprising.

Speaker 2 (19:53):
Yeah, yeah, the disparit right side of it.

Speaker 1 (19:55):
Harrison is wide receiver twenty one in easyr for the record.
So ericson just a couple of spots head there, ericson
who is your next receiver?

Speaker 4 (20:03):
I'm going to the rookie pool here, teta Rod McMillan,
wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers. I'm just not trying
to overthink this. He was drafted eighth overall. I think
that he has the highest ceiling of any rookie receiver
this year. When it comes to who could go out
and catch one hundred balls go over fourteen hundred receiving yards,
I think it's set Ron McMillan. I think that he
can clearly drop into this offense be the clear alpha.

(20:25):
And I know Bryce Young has his issues, but what
has Bryce Young done, even when he's played bad his
first two years in the NFL, is he's fueled fantasy production.
Adam Feelin has been a fantasy marvel at times the
last two seasons when he's been healthy and upright, and
he's committed a very high target share in this offense.
And even last year, you know who started out the
season really really well before things totally went haywire was

(20:46):
Deontay Johnson. Like he was scoring a lot of fantasy spoints.
He had a very high target share. So Bryce Young
has shown Hey, if you establish yourself as the number
one in the Dave Canalis offense, I'm going to hyper
target you. So for those reasons, I like Tedtarnemillin a ton.
He just looks like an alpha. And I'm not trying
to overthink it about the situation. I mean, I just
think it's everything is there that you want, The volume,

(21:07):
opportunity is there. I think the profile is really strong
for McMillan. I think that the quarterback play is like
we've seen it work at this level. So again, one
of these working receivers is probably going to be a
wide receiver one and that will be my bet will
be on Ttarn McMillan ericson.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
He's two spots behind Travis Hunter in ECR right now,
hunters wide receiver thirty two and Ted is wide receiver
thirty four. I would rather have Tet this year. It's
and obviously it's not a knock on Hunter's skill set.
It's just I need to see the usage to believe it.
Whereas I know Ted McMillan, if he's healthy, is getting
one hundred and ten targets easy.

Speaker 4 (21:44):
I mean, you can make the simple argument as well,
Travis Hunter's not the number one on his own team, right.
I know that we've seen plenty of number twos come
in still put up very strong seasons. But should we
just expect Trevor Lawrence to just drop in and be like, oh, well,
now you can sport two wide receiver ones when he's
barely he's barely done one like that was mac Jones
last year, that was getting Brian Thomas to the Promised Land.

(22:05):
So I'm not ready to just put Trevor Lawrence on
his pedestal and just oh, yeah, well he's going to
deliver for everything.

Speaker 3 (22:11):
I think it's just take McMillan.

Speaker 4 (22:12):
I think that it's really I think that's some I
think the markets maybe over over confident with Travis Hunter
and him being a hud of McMillan when I don't know,
I just like the volume bet with McMillan, Jake.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
I feel like there's always a receiver, a rookie receiver
every year that I say this for where you look
at the early ADP in the early rankings and I'm
just like, this is going to be the cheapest you
will ever get this player. So I want to draft
him as a rookie because next year he's going to
be three rounds higher than everybody's ADP. And I feel
like Ted is that guy like wide receiver thirty four.
I just don't think he's going to be there a

(22:46):
year from now. I think he's gonna have the type
of season where that looks really silly.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
I actually have both of them ahead of consensus. I
have Hunter at twenty six and McMillan at twenty nine.
I slightly go Hunter. And this is coming from somebody
who sat here and said that I think Bryce Young
deserves more respect for what happened at the end of
last year, and that Bryce Young is a decent flyer
as a mid QB two versus some of the other
names that people want to take chances on. Like I'd
rather take a chance on Bryce Young than Matthew Stafford.

(23:10):
I know what Matthew Stafford's going to be. He's going
to be at best QB eleven, twelve thirteen. If somehow
Bryce Young turned back to college Bryce Young, which was
late last year. Bryce Young, there's QB one upside with him?
Is it a long shot? Sure? And I say ill
at to say, though, if I think somebody is going
to support two wide receivers more, I would still bet

(23:31):
on Lawrence. So it's an interesting conversation because if I'm
betting for redraft, I'm going to take Hunter because I'm
going to take Hunter as the skill set. I would
take him as the one on one in this draft
if we knew he was purely wide receiver. But if
we're talking as breakout for wide receiver ones, I actually
agree with Erickson on this and say, like, I do
think McMillan has a path where Hunter doesn't. It's going
to be a similar conversation when we get into wide

(23:51):
receivers later, as I think best case Hunter could probably
crack the top twenty because Evan Ingram's gone, so we
have that out of the way for the Jaguars. So
you do have a potential target share similar to Devanta
Smith Jameis Williams that we were just kind of talking about.
But I do think that McMillan has the more likely
high end target volume in the twenty eight percent range
because he is clearly the number one. All that being

(24:13):
said that the categories forced me into something later in
the show for my articles on the athletic I never
include rookies's breakouts because I call them debuts. I don't
think you can break out from having done nothing. I
call them a great debut, and then potentially you could
break out even more. So that's why I didn't include
McMillan or Hunter, even though I do think this is
a good pick.

Speaker 1 (24:32):
I'm with you on Bryce Young. By the way, this
is in a quarterback episode, so we won't have to
go deep.

Speaker 3 (24:36):
How many? How many?

Speaker 4 (24:37):
How many passes do you think McMillan catches over Travis
Hunter in Week one when the Panthers play the Jaguars.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
In Week one? Over him? Is it over as in
a higher number, or over him as in he's in coverage?

Speaker 4 (24:49):
Yeah, as in Travis Hunterson coverage.

Speaker 2 (24:54):
I'm actually gonna go zero. I don't think they're gonna
do much. I really don't. It doesn't sound like it.

Speaker 3 (24:59):
D He's gonna He's awesome in the end zone. I
see it.

Speaker 1 (25:02):
I hope we see It'd be fun, uh, Jake, who's
your next receiver?

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Yeah, it's funny bringing up like this whole Vata Smith
and then like go back to the John Jackson as
the world. I'm gonna go with Xavier Worthy, and I
know like a lot of people are gonna look at
the Chiefs and be like, oh man, this could end
up being a quagmire. And I get it, because if
Rashi Rice isn't suspended or is only suspended for like
two games, I get it, this could kind of throw
things in the haywire and out the window. But I

(25:27):
think it's gonna sounds like it's still going to be
more than that. And if it comes down to it too,
it's like Xavier Worthy is coming off the season, Rashi
Rice is coming off an injury suspension not being on
the field. This is a long layoff now where I
don't think we can just sit here and say, you
know what, if everybody's ready in week one, Rashier Rice
is gonna immediately step right back into his position. And
if you go back and you go back to something

(25:48):
I brought up earlier with the Tyreek kel and Travis Kelsey, well,
who's more likely to be Tyrek Hill for this team?
And I know this is a different Patrick Mahomes and
a different Chiefs offense than it was back then. They
do bring things more into the intermediate game now, but
I think Xavier Worthy brings something that Rice doesn't. I
think Xavier Worthy brings something to this team that nobody
else really does. And of course when you talk to
Sean Jackson Devonte Smith, it's going to be a roller

(26:10):
coaster ride. But I think Travis Kelcey, also at this
point of his career, if ra Sheer Rice wasn't suspended
was healthy day one, I think there's a non zero
chance that Xavier Worthy and Rashier Rice outproduced Travis Kelcey
this year, given where he is at his career arc.
So if I'm going for somebody that could potentially put
up twelve hundred yards and I would bank a little
bit more on the touchdowns than the receptions carrying his

(26:32):
true value, I think it's Xavier Worthy, especially if we're
talking about the range. You know, we kind of touched
it on in the beginning, but we're also eliminating guys
who have done this before, finished inside the top twelve
like thirteen fourteen. But like looking at some of these names,
I think Xavier Worthy has the best case even with
all those factors involved.

Speaker 1 (26:51):
He finished strong last year obviously, I mean if you
take out Week eighteen, where he played like one or
two snaps. He was wide receiver sixteen, wide receiver twelve,
wide receiver fifteen the final three weeks the season. Obviously,
you know Rashid Rice that he also had the only
good game by a Chief in the Super Bowl. A
lot of that was obviously coming back.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
That's why you.

Speaker 4 (27:08):
Average it with that Week eighteen game where he barely
played and then he got a bunch of garbage times
stats in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
Yeah, but this is a player who, like including the
rushing stats, had nine touchdowns as a rookie, you know,
over almost seven hundred and fifty combined yards in the
ground and through the air. And there are question marks
with Rice. You know, Worthy was a player that some
people really liked coming out of the draft and some
people were kind of fading. And I think he kind

(27:33):
of proved both people right at different times during the year.
But ultimately I think he looks like a really strong
investment going into this season. Ericson, Yeah, he's.

Speaker 4 (27:41):
A really really young player, and he did exactly what
you'd hope you saw growth from him. And I know
that he scored a bunch of touchdowns in his first
game and then he didn't really follow up with that
because Rice was involved and the Chiefs were still kind
to try to figure things out. But I just I
liked Worthy a lot of prospect, and I did not
enjoy the first half of the season, but to see
what to see him rebound and step into a new

(28:03):
role and take on the Rashie Rice role and be
Patrick Mahomes go to guy. I mean, he was so dependable.
He was really high in terms of red zone targets.
He was tenth in red zone targets, again, a high
end or a middle fantasy wide receiver two from weeks
eleven through seventeen. And look, maybe Rice doesn't get suspended,
but he's still coming off of major e injury, so
that always concerns me. I've always have reservations about guys

(28:25):
coming off of major season ending injuries. So for me,
I'm still gravitating towards Worthy if I need to pick
one of the Chiefs wide receivers just because hey man,
this guy is ready to go and broke out in
the second half of the season. So I think that's
going to just similar to what we saw with Rashie
Rice Wasshi. Rice broke out in the first second half
of his rookie year, and then he followed up with
a really strong start, So why can't Worthy continue to

(28:46):
have that and have a strong start to the twenty
twenty five season as Rice gets you know, gets back
into health.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
So for me, that's why I go back to the
play style too. Like, given the size and what Rice brings,
I think he is more likely to replace Kelsey and
what he brings to this offense than the role that
Xavier brings.

Speaker 3 (29:05):
Yeah, and I think too.

Speaker 4 (29:06):
And I don't know if you know how the roles
will necessarily shake out, but I do know that Worthy
at least showed last year that he can operate from
a short role as he was filling in for USh Rice.
But we also know that the guy's a burner and
he can win deep. So if they eventually decide, hey,
we want to finally uncork the deep ball a little bit, well,
then Xavier Worthy, we know can win deep as well.
So I think he's versatile. I think it's underrated about

(29:28):
his game. And again, being attached to Pat Mahomes is
always a good way to be attached to fantasy upside.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
There are a lot of Dynasty rookie drafts last year,
We're Worthy in that back half of the first round
went ahead of Brian Thomas Junior and Lad mccauckey. And
I think by the end of this year you will
still regret that, but that regret will be somewhat mitigated.
I think worthy we'll take a step forward and get
closer to those guys. I want to let everybody know
about Draft Intel. It shows you how your league mates

(29:56):
actually draft based on up to five years of real data.
Find out who always takes wide receivers, early fades, tight ends,
or targets qbs late. Use those tendencies in the draft
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(30:17):
think draft Intel is one of the coolest tools we
have a Fantasy pro. So I would like strive.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
It feels like Buddy Gut feels like what people do
to me at my home league draft and bring my
rankings is like, now I can go back and do
it to them.

Speaker 1 (30:29):
It does feel like that, so take advantage of that.
For sure, everybody. It feels like cheating, but it's not.
Breakouts in the making ericson, who do you have here?
And by the way Jake pointed this out, we're putting
the show together. You guys each pick a player from
the same two teams. So the first kind of two
will loop together and then we'll loop the second two
together as well. But Ericson start us off.

Speaker 3 (30:49):
Yeah, so we'll start talking about the Buffalo Bills because.

Speaker 4 (30:52):
This is a team that's primed to produce some type
of fantasy guy because when you have Josh Allen as
the quarterback, you're thinking, Okay, there has to be a
breakout wide receiver that comes.

Speaker 3 (31:00):
We're gonna be talking about some of these guys.

Speaker 4 (31:01):
So the guy I wanted to bring up was Khalil
Shakir because I think it's Shakir's I think it's almost
his as the target leader last year, as the guy
who was number one in targets, catches, receiving yards, it's
kind of almost his to lose, where if nobody else again,
we go another year, nobody steps up, then by default
Khalis Hicker is going to end up being that number
one receiver for the Buffalo Bills, just based on again

(31:23):
what he did last year twenty nine percent target rate
per out run that ranked tenth among all wide receivers
two point two yards per out run eighteenth over seven
yards after the catch per reception that was top five
in the NFL. The big thing with Shakir to me
is he is the Buffalo Bills mister reliable when it
comes to wide receiver. Josh Allen and him have a
great connection together, so I know when Alan is in trouble,

(31:47):
like he's going to be looking for his number one
slot receiver. And we've seen at times throughout fantasy where
if you're just the number one slot receiver on your team,
you can just rack up a ton of receptions and
you look up, oh wow, this guy caught over one
hundred balls over a thousand yards. And if you and
on the on the favorable side of touchdown vary and
that's kind of what's hurt. Shakir hasn't really been involved
in the red zone a lot. That's why his total numbers,

(32:08):
like last year he was forty wide receiver thirty overall
wide receiver forty three points per game because he didn't
score that many touchdowns. So if they end up carving
out a bigger role for him in the red zone, okay,
then you can see this guy take a step forward.
So he's one of these players that I look back on.
It's like, Okay, there's not a lot of hype around
Shakir because as we'll get into it, and as Jaco outline,
there are other guys we might be more excited about,

(32:28):
like the ceiling for these types of players. But I mean,
Shakira has such a high floor, and if no one
else steps up in this Buffalo Bill's receiving core, I
think that it's just going to be more.

Speaker 3 (32:35):
Of Cleil Shakir. The Bills clearly value him.

Speaker 4 (32:38):
They sign him to an extension this offseason, So yeah,
that's the guy for me, someone to keep an eye on.

Speaker 1 (32:44):
Jake, you hit on you can hit on Shakira bit
if you want, but you picked a different Buffalo Bill here.

Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, and look, I love Shakiro. Actually I was at
the combine when they brought him out after lunch by
himself and nobody was talking to him, and I immediately had,
like my heart go out to the guy there. It's like,
I'm gonna like this guy no matter what. So I
have a saw spot for him, and Erics is not wrong.
And if you look at Diggs and even before Digs
Beasley on this team, and that kind of usage from
that wide receiver. So something that Ericson said where is

(33:11):
kind of like why I hesitated, and I went back
and forth and both these teams were about to talk
about in my mind. But again I'm going with who
could become a wide receiver one. I actually don't think
that path is there for Shakira. I think he's got
a great floor. I think he could be a great
wide receiver too. But even if you look at Diggs
seasons where he was a wide receiver one one hundred
and sixty ish targets, I just don't know if Shakir

(33:33):
gets there, Like I would almost call him as much
as I like him, ninety percent digs and ninety percent
of those targets doesn't really get you really need that
for where he's used on the field. And then the
interesting thing that Andrew brought up, which I was actually
even shocked by this number last year, to go back
to end zone targets, my pick keyon Coleman actually led
the Bills and end zone targets with all the miss time,

(33:55):
with all the non playing time on the field and
not being out there for all the snaps, he still
led the team with eight end zone targets. The next
closest was Mac Collins at six. To give you an idea,
So that's where I'm going down. My path is Keon
Coleman coming out of college. I called him he could
be the best at Kenny Galladay and the worst of
Kenny Galladay. We just saw the worst of Kenny Galladay
last year. Let's be clear. That was the concern about

(34:17):
Kean Coleman coming out of college too, is that he
was raw in some aspects. He probably wouldn't hit the
ground running, but that patience and a lot of times,
you know, you go back to these rookies and it's like, hey,
even quarterbacks we've talked about before. It's like, oh, they
need to do this, they need to do this, give
him some time. And then they don't do it in
year one and everybody panics and it's like, wait, wait,
we just said they need time to develop. They were

(34:38):
exactly what you expected him to be and now you're off.
So I'm on the path of like, who can potentially
get wide receiver one. I think it'll be very touchdown
reliant for Keon Coleman. I think it'll be more in
like the thousand to eleven hundred yard range, but eight
or nine touchdowns. And that's why I go Coleman slightly
over Shakir. I do like both candidates here, and if

(34:58):
I'm talking drafts and ja role, just as an entire aside,
I'm just going to take whoever's cheaper this year, which
will probably end up being Coleman because people are so disappointed.
But I think the path is slightly more likely than Coleman,
even though I do think Shakira could find his way there,
it just would take such a high target volume.

Speaker 1 (35:15):
Coleman is wide receiver fifty three in early rankings. Shakira
is up at wide receiver thirty eight, so there is
a bit of a gap as of now. It's it's much.

Speaker 2 (35:22):
Better floor can't can't agree with that anymore than I.

Speaker 3 (35:25):
Do, can I point out?

Speaker 4 (35:26):
So I wanted to point out one thing about the
job bills too, So they've they've added a bunch of
other receivers. So they've also added Josh Palmer right, And
as I talked about the beginning of the show, who
breaks out fifth year wide receivers on new teams, I'm
not doing you.

Speaker 2 (35:41):
Can do Josh Palmer again, Like, how many times are
going to do Josh Palmer?

Speaker 4 (35:44):
How many times did we do Jerr Judy till he
finishes a wide receiver one.

Speaker 3 (35:47):
How many times there's a little bit.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
Of difference between Judy and Palmer.

Speaker 3 (35:51):
I'm just saying.

Speaker 4 (35:52):
Christian Urk was a wide receiver one his first year
with Jacksonville, fifth year guy, DJ Moore, first year in Chicago,
fifth year guy.

Speaker 2 (35:58):
First. You know Palmer, I like him. He's a sixth
man in the NBA. That's that's who he needs to be.
You are the greatest six man wide receiver of all time,
But do not be my top two option, Jake.

Speaker 3 (36:10):
I'm just I'm eric.

Speaker 1 (36:12):
Josh Palmer is ranked in early wide receiver rankings.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
Not high, oh, very low, eighty eight.

Speaker 1 (36:19):
You're too low. He's wide receiver seventy three.

Speaker 4 (36:23):
He's going to crush. He's going to crush that ADP.
So because again he fits the criteria. We're looking at
a gay fifth year receiver who could be a breakout. Again,
kh Khalish occurs a fourth year guy. So that's why
I'm afraid about him potentially being a wide receiver one.
I think that I am coming more around to the again,
unless all these guys don't fire, then Seared default gets
up to that spot. But even if that happens, is
it just more a wide receiver to finish and you

(36:45):
feel good about him?

Speaker 3 (36:46):
He's a double.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
They do have seventy five wide receivers on this team
right now.

Speaker 3 (36:50):
Elijah Elijah Moore also a fifth year.

Speaker 2 (36:52):
Guy, Curtis Samuel also on this team, and.

Speaker 4 (36:55):
Then they also added Laviska who's a year six guy.
So they have really looked. See they'll look at the
same thing. We're looking at fifth year breakouts baby who
is relied to breakout in fifth years. So that's how
they added guys like Elijah Moore, Joshua Palmer, and Leviskus Chanalt.
So look, we've come to the collusion. The Bills are
going to have a breakout wide receiver. Like you point out,

(37:15):
Shakier's the most expensive guy. Where is he going wide
receiver outside the top thirty six receivers that's receivers. Yeah,
draft Bills receiver. Someone is going to destroy their ADP
and Shakir, I think is gonna at least match it.
But you got to take shots in some of these
Bills guys. So I just wanted to mention Josh Palmer
because also I do love Josh Palmer, even though last
year he disappointed a big way. I called him last year.

(37:36):
Was it going to be this year's Nico Collins? Maybe
maybe I was just early.

Speaker 2 (37:40):
One thing I will real quickly I know when you
move on from this. But this is the thing with
the Bills too, is the two tight ends and how
two wide receivers is very often, So be ready to
pivot off of any sha curious the safe if you're
not getting rid of Shakiir. But like if Palmer beats
out Kean Colman from week one, this is like we're
bad news here. If like you have to be a
top two wide receiver on this team because of their offense.

Speaker 1 (38:00):
Yeah. So the other team that you guys both picked
players from for this section is the forty nine Ers.
So ja Quis broke my heart time.

Speaker 2 (38:07):
Yeah thats what. And it broke my heart because everybody
was calling me the Juwan Jennings guy last year because
my waiver calm him, like get Jennings, get Jennings, But
like why I was saying get Jennings and kind of
ties into us is because of the roles behind Deebo
and Ayuk and for who got hurt and who fills
roles well if Ayuk is coming back, I just see
Piersall as more of a fit with Ayuk than I

(38:27):
do Jennings. And I love Jennings, and I don't want
to discount what he did. I just feel like, construction wise,
if you're talking Ayuk kittle next option, I would just
lean towards Piersol, who they did invest round one capital on,
who I was actually kind of a little bit too
low on him. I thought he would be very much
like Darius Slayton in the NFL, which isn't a bad thing.

(38:49):
Like Daris Slayton's like kind of underrated for what he's
been able to do with that mess of the Giants
quarterback situation for years, putting up seven hundred eight hundred
yards every single year. But why I bring that up
is to say, like I kind of underrated his immediate
impact into the intermediate game. I thought he did better
there than I expected right out of the gate. I
thought that would take more time. So I'm looking for
somebody who fills the role next to I. You complimentary

(39:11):
style with this and I just think Piercell fits a
little bit better. Where if that's the case, it's really
going to come down to, if Piercell's the wide receiver
three and then Jennings is the two, I'm wrong. If
Piercel's the two and Jennings is the three, I think
Erickson's wrong. I think that's just what it comes down to.
And if I'm shooting for ceiling between the two. As

(39:31):
much as I do love Jennings and I know he
had a ceiling last year, I could see it in
the comments coming from me right now. Do you not
remember this? Do you not remember that? Yes? I do,
because I hit on Jennings on so many leagues. I
just think Piersoll's ceiling talent ability and in year two
could grow into that number two role, replacing what's now
been lost by Deebo Samuel where I think Jennings is
kind of the better version of Joshua Palmer, like he

(39:53):
is what he is. But I think we probably just
saw the best of what we could get from. And
I know people are going to parse out the games
and say, well, if it's seventy percent of the snaps,
this is what he would have averaged and blah blah
blah blah. So I know it's coming. I just again
I give Piercel the talent edge slightly.

Speaker 4 (40:08):
Jake Jay just said that this year's uh Juwan Jennings
is Josh Palmer.

Speaker 3 (40:16):
Your baby.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
There you go, So, sir Ericson, you did take Jennings
here in this one.

Speaker 4 (40:21):
Yes, I did take Jennings with the Again, when I
was writing it up, I was like kind of a
surprise year five breakout. But apparently guys breakout in year
five all the time. So wide Receiver twenty five overall
last year again benefited from a lot of the injuries
that happened to the forty nine Ers after Week eight.
I mean when he took over, especially after the Ayuke injury,
he took over that X role. And I mean anybody

(40:42):
that watched forty nine Ers, I know that Chris Wels
was obviously again as our forty nine Ers in house
and analyst. He was also on the Juwan Jennings from
the beginning, just talking about how he's the best receiver
on the team. And the thing that's so apparent just
rewatching and remembering these games was he and Brock Purty
just had such a great connection. Like whenever brock Purdy
needed a first down, need to make a big play,
it was always Juan Jennings. As much as I wanted

(41:03):
to be branded AYUK for so many weeks, it was
never branded AYUK. It was always Juan Jennings. And then
especially when AYUK went down, Jennings just really stepped.

Speaker 3 (41:12):
Up from Week eight onward.

Speaker 4 (41:14):
Thirty three percent first read target share for Juan Jennings,
So just very highly involved from the get go on
a lot of different plays. Di Jo, Samuel's gone. I
still coming back from the ecl injuries, so we don't know. Yeah,
he might be out there, but how effective is he
going to be? We saw how rusty he looked when
he didn't practice last year a training camp because of
his holdout. How how good do you think he's going

(41:35):
to look coming off of torn acl I'm like, I'm
not optimistic about AYUK, but I do realize that he
does cause a problem when it comes to just raw
snaps getting on the field. But what I do feel
confident about is when Jennings is on the field, whatever
role he ends up taking on, he showed last year
he's versatile, he can play multiple roles and that he's
brought Perry's guy, and when they asked him about I
think that's Klay Kubiak, who's the offensive coordinator now for

(41:57):
the forty nine ers. They asked him about Juwan jen
and Joan Jennings is like, yeah, like, I think I
could be the number one on this team, especially while
I is still coming back from his injury. So again
another player that was highly involved in the red zone.
He also did have an injury last year too, so
he had hip injury, so you could argue that maybe
his numbers would have been a little bit better had
he not gotten hurt a little bit missed a couple
of games in the middle of the season. So again

(42:19):
I picked the two guys from this Bills and forty
nine Ers because I feel confident about the chemistry. Maybe
I'm getting I'm taking the guys with like safer floors potentially,
but I think that both receiving cores for the forty
nine Ers and Bills have a lot of untapped potential.
And there's a reason why they're going so late in
a lot of these drafts because there's ambiguity. But you
want to take advantage of that and choose Chase some
of the subside.

Speaker 2 (42:39):
Yeah, if Andrew's list was wide receiver twos, I'd be
like ten out of ten, one hundred percent on every
single one of them. But like that like little difference
of like what's the ceiling, it's kind of changing things
for me.

Speaker 1 (42:49):
The ECR rankings and these guys is for the record,
Jennings is wide receiver forty, Piersall is wide receiver forty five,
Brandon at Yuk is wide receiver thirty nine. So back
to back with Jennings, We'll take all of right now.
At that point, Yeah, it feels like all three are
our values. Let's take a second to tell everybody about
Fast Draft. You can download fast Draft in the app
Store or Google Play using code Fantasy pros. When you

(43:11):
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As drafts take just five minutes and get started now
as way too early. Drafts have exploitable ADPs, plus rookie
only tournaments are only on fast Draft. Ericson you have
been diving into the fast Draft streets a ton, What
do you like about it?

Speaker 4 (43:30):
Yeah, I've been drafting on Fast Draft since before the
NFL Draft even started.

Speaker 3 (43:35):
So I've been on the hype.

Speaker 4 (43:36):
I've been on in the Fast Draft drafting streets for months,
it seems like. And my favorite game is definitely the
Origins rookie game because you love drafting these rookies in
these dynasty context but then your dynasty draft are over
and you're like, oh man, now.

Speaker 3 (43:49):
All I have to do.

Speaker 4 (43:49):
Now, all I can do is draft R J. Harvey
in round two because his ADP's going to the moon.
But on Fast Draft is a little bit different, like
more palatable ADPs. You're only drafting rookies and I'll lets
you take shots on some sleeper guys you have at
the end of round six.

Speaker 3 (44:03):
So I've had a lot of fun with it.

Speaker 4 (44:04):
I did a recent video on it, so you could
check that out on the YouTube channel where I draft
a Fast Draft team in Origin. So go check it
out and use code a Fantasy Spros when.

Speaker 3 (44:12):
You sign up.

Speaker 1 (44:13):
Ericson has definitely been driving in the fast lane again.
Download Fast Draft in the App Store or Google Play.
Use code Fantasy Pros when you sign up, and you'll
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up to ten drafts for free. All right, guys, let's
go to kind of our sleeper wide receiver one dart
throws is how we're kind of clarifying these. We can
go a little quicker because these are kind of just
we're taking a shot and more lottery tickets here, I guess,

(44:35):
but we see reasons why these guys could break out
here right off the bat. Ericson will start with you,
who's your number one in this category?

Speaker 4 (44:41):
Going to another rookie receiver, Luther Burden for the Chicago Bears,
and the reason why he's underrated is because just the
landing spot in terms of depth chart. Right, Oh, well,
he's number three on the depth chart, maybe number four
when you include the tight ends on the Bears. Well,
maybe Ben Johnson doesn't see it that way. Maybe Ben
Johnson's like, no, this is my starting slot receiver and
we're going to scheme him up touches. He's going to
be my Deebo Samuel. We saw Luther Burden at the

(45:02):
college level play a lot of his snaps from the slot,
and what do we know about receivers and Ben Johnson offenses?
They do really well in fantasy production. So I just
want to be I want people and drafters to be
open to the idea that Ben Johnson coming in drafting
two guys in the first and second round on offense,
those might be his guys. He may decide, No, these

(45:22):
are the players I want to run my offense through,
not the guys that I'm inheriting from the past regime
that was a disaster. So I can't guarantee that's how
it's going to play out. But based on the cost
of Burden, who's free in the upside that he showed,
especially his sophomore year at Missouri, he was an absolute monster,
and the guys also mistackle machine like all this guy
does his force misttackle's great after the catch. So if

(45:44):
he gets enough volume, even if he's maybe in a
limited slot role, I think he can surprise some people.
So Luther Burn for me, I think has a really
high steiling.

Speaker 1 (45:52):
Spoiler for the rest of this segment, three of the
four in this grouping are rookies that you guys would pick,
So this is kind of the range for that Burden
he being one of them. Jake, just before we get
to your guy, Burden, is he somebody you like as
a year one target or more of maybe a dynasty
guy both.

Speaker 2 (46:09):
Really, just a few weeks ago we talked about it
and I said, there's a non zero chance. That's the
second time I've said non zero on the show. Now,
third is that he's the number one option, Like this
is he just Ben Johnson new regime coming in and
you know he's the one that's drafted. I'm not discounting
DJ Moore's talent. I'm not discounting a Donsay's talent. But

(46:29):
let's be honest that o'doonsday's issues last year were some
of his own issues. So is there a chance where
Burns the number one guy? Absolutely, especially when you make
the comparison to like a Garrett Wilson and Julian Ellman
in this offense in the slot, and if he's in
the slot a lot, Doonsday's getting kicked outside and I'd
rather Odunzay spend at least fifty percent of his time
in the slot. So that's really what it comes down

(46:50):
to for me. And yeah, previously I said I don't
like to include rookies, but once we're going to this level,
when we're talking wy receiver five, six and sevens, I
was like man, I don't really watch much of these veterans,
and so for our purposes of this show, I am
including two rookies for breakouts. Mine first is Jayden Higgins.
I almost think if you're talking about flour for rookie
wide receivers, I think he's got one of the best

(47:12):
up there with McMillan because he's stepping into the number
two role right alongside Nico Collins. Some people likened him
to Nico Collins. I think there's some Marvin Jones to
his game, but even Marvin Jones on eleven hundred yards,
seven eight touchdowns, that puts you as a top twenty
twenty five wide receiver. Of course we're trying to talk
about wide receiver ones. But if everything happened to break
right and you have two Nico Collins for Cijo Shroud

(47:33):
and Cjo Shroud bounces back to his rookie season, you're
talking about four thousand plus yards thirty touchdowns for his
year this season, and now you're talking about Higgins as
the number two. I mean, look at the excitement people
had for Tank Dell, and I think that you're talking
about there can be two wide receivers on this team
possibly even three with who they drafted, obviously his teammate,
Higgins teammate, but I think that Higgins definitively is one

(47:56):
of the safer ones with still plenty of upside for
a ceiling Eric.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
Soon, what do you make of Higgins obviously one of
a couple of rookies in that receiving room behind Nico Collins.

Speaker 4 (48:06):
I think all you have to do is just pull
up the ADP of the Houston Texans wide receivers last
year and that'll tell you exactly what the upside is.
We were drafting Tank, Dell, Stefondeges, and Nevc Collins, all
within the top five rounds. I think of consensus ADP,
and now there's only one guy and Higgins and the
other Texans receiver, Christian Kirk. Those guys aren't even close
to where that ADP was is last year. So maybe

(48:27):
we were a little aggressive last year, but I still
think that there was a really high ceiling case for
those guys, and obviously injuries played a massive roles, so
I think, yeah, I'm really also head of consensus on
Jayden Higgins. I don't know just because he went in
the second round, he was a top pick in the
second round.

Speaker 3 (48:41):
He's got Stroud. I think it's a great fit for Higgins.

Speaker 1 (48:45):
Why do we think his ECR is what it is?
It's wide receiver sixty eight. He's behind the two guys
in front of him. Are we get bash? Quentin Johnston
is ahead of him, Trey Harris, who we're going to
talk about coming up later this second Adam field there
are three Carolina receivers in the eight spots ahead of him.
Dubbs is ahead of him. Like I don't get this ranking.

Speaker 4 (49:08):
I mean I don't have him ranked there, so I
can't speak for the FORTYI.

Speaker 1 (49:13):
So yeah, and it's it's not like a rookie thing
because like Burden is thirteen spots ahead of him, and like, yeah,
I don't get this.

Speaker 3 (49:20):
H I have him So what Jake, where'd you say
you had him forty six? I have him forty four?

Speaker 2 (49:25):
So yeah, one spot front of Matthew Golden. So like
I think might have some of it, might have to
do with the Christian Kirk, but also the teammate being
Noel and then like worried about like well if Kirk
is the number two, like because jokes about Kirk, but
Kirk went on the field has been very productive. I
have questions of how productive is he at this point
even if he is on the field, But that's in there,

(49:45):
and then of course the Jalen Noel is like, oh maybe,
like what if he actually beats out Higgins? And like,
you know, people especially today in the NFL and fantasy
because you even see NFL teams doing this, so it's
not coming for people watching the show is to get
enamored with speed, and like, Noel's got that little bit
of a leg over Higgins in that aspect, so people
are kind of getting who's the tankd del It'll be
Jalen Noel, So like, I think that's part of it too.

(50:08):
There's just a lot of factors messing this one up.

Speaker 1 (50:10):
There is no scenario where I'm gonna draft Romeo Dobbs
or Xavier league At ahead of Jayden Higgins, Clenton Johnston.

Speaker 3 (50:17):
Dobbs is going to complain and get a bunch of
targets one week. So I want to.

Speaker 2 (50:21):
Draft a single out, I will draft Higgins over every
single Packers wide receiver. That's crazy, it's not my sound.
Maybe I'm insane, but I'm gonna do it too.

Speaker 3 (50:29):
I'm too Jaydan Reid pilled to do that. But for
the most part, I do agree with you.

Speaker 1 (50:33):
Eric, say give us your one non rookie here in
this segment.

Speaker 4 (50:37):
Yeah, because we haven't talked about any of your three
players yet.

Speaker 3 (50:40):
And your three.

Speaker 4 (50:41):
Players also hit at a very high rate along with
your two players, and no year three player has had
a slower burn I think than Marvin Mins.

Speaker 3 (50:48):
Right, We've been waiting for this guy.

Speaker 4 (50:49):
He gets all the hype in the world from Sean Payton,
but we finally saw it in the second half of
twenty twenty four against similar to Xavier Worthy where I
remember making a trade for Marvin Mins in the Dynasty
ly with Debro and of course he does absolutely nothing
the first week or the first half of the season.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
I'm like, I trade a second round pick for Marvin Mims.
What was I for? A backup running back basically? But
he turned it on.

Speaker 4 (51:12):
He finally got it, going sixty two receiving yards per
game in the second half of twenty twenty four. He
led all wide receivers in yards per rout run from
week eleven onward twenty eight percent target rate per route run,
thirteenth in the NFL. Marvin Mims again a very young player,
only twenty three years old. Look, if we're excited about
this Broncos offense, so they're gonna take a step forward, Well,

(51:34):
who is gonna be the receiver that steps up? I know,
I really like Evan Ingram a lot, so maybe it's
really him that ends up taking on a lot of
that volume. But I just I liked what I've seen
from Marvin Mims. I think he's flashed and the fact
that he was able to overcome a pretty slow start
last year. I mean, he's slashed both years of his
NFOL career, like, He's made a lot of big plays
and for the most part it's basically been just massive teases,

(51:54):
even with the Russell Wilson experiment. But I think maybe
this year, as le Broncos tried to take another with
Bonnicks entering year two, maybe they can walk into the
side of Mim. So among the year three guys, among receivers,
Marvin Mims is the guy that I'm going to gravitate towards.

Speaker 1 (52:10):
Jake, what do you think about Mims?

Speaker 2 (52:12):
I'm sorry, Andrew, this is the only one in your list.
I absolutely hate. I'm just I'm not a Marvin Mims
guy I never have been. I think as crazy as this,
people have come for me, but I explain it hopefully.
It don't make sense. Like he's a possession wide receiver
and like the people are like, well, look at his speed.
I was like, yes, but he catches the ball and
goes down. He's just a possess. He's a trustworthy speed guy,

(52:33):
big play guy. I don't know if he's ever anything
more than nel Nelson Aguilar And I know all the
numbers you said. I think that was kind of a
factor of the team and what was the makeup at
that point where I honestly think his role is in
serious jeopardy and Pat Bryant's gonna take it. And I'm
not the biggest Pat Bryant fan, may mind you, but
similar to Michael Thomas when he was drafted by the Saints,

(52:53):
Pat Bryant's style in the shan Sean Payton offense is
Michael Thomas is that, you know what he'd He doesn't
run the best routes. He's not the quickest out of
his breaks, but you don't need to be when you
are that kind of player of the Colston and on
the Michael Thomas and now Pat Bryant, and I think
that Bryant's stepping in into the number two role. Maybe
I'm crazy, but also your factor in emin Ingram and

(53:15):
I just think there's a lot of options here where
I think Mims his window might have just got closed
most of the way. So again, like I could be wrong,
I'm not righting on all these things. It's just this
is the only one of those on Andrews list. I
just didn't like.

Speaker 1 (53:29):
I want to highlight a stat that's not related to Mims.
Jacob Gibbs from CBS just tweeted this out while we're
taping the show, and it's about Exavier Worthy. So since
we talked about him, I a species Jaman deep targets
from a clean pocket from Patrick Mahomes. Last year, forty
nine percent of them went to Worthy. Half the targets
on the team deep targets from a clean pocket went him.

(53:49):
He had sixteen next highest four four, four, three, one
one for everybody else. So that was the guy for
him and if they complete a few more of those
this year, that'll be super fun.

Speaker 4 (54:00):
So we went from Mark, so nothing to add to you.

Speaker 3 (54:06):
I can't say Marvin Mims. So we gotta go to worrying.

Speaker 1 (54:08):
I feel I feel like I was so burned on
Mems early on that it's really hard for me, like
emotionally to come back.

Speaker 4 (54:16):
Dude, someone from year three is going to break out.
So I'm just saying, when you look at the year
three list.

Speaker 1 (54:20):
Who are some of the other Year three options. I'm
trying to think of who else could have been included
on this list.

Speaker 3 (54:24):
Pull it up.

Speaker 2 (54:25):
It doesn't have to help everyone. It's not the Madden curse.

Speaker 3 (54:34):
I can look it up.

Speaker 1 (54:36):
I also just find it hard to trust John Payton
in general, like even if even if Mims had this
great finishing season.

Speaker 4 (54:42):
You know, you know when people will tweet out like
they'll be like tired, and then they'll say something obvious
and wired, something not obvious and be like tired.

Speaker 2 (54:49):
R J.

Speaker 4 (54:50):
Harvey is gonna get a ton of targets out of
the backfield, wired, Marvin Mims is going to get.

Speaker 3 (54:54):
It to a bunch of targets out of the backfield.

Speaker 2 (54:56):
No, but I mean, let's put it like this, this
is your three for Sean Clatton and making it his offense.
And I get he hasn't had somebody like Mims kind
of pseudo was that role. Everything I just said about
Mims with the fact that, like I think he's kind
of a possession guy even though he has all that speed,
He actually has more speed than Colston or Thomas ever had,
but he kind of was a pseudo version of that.

(55:19):
I just think Pat Bryant fills that. And again that
doesn't mean Pat Bryan's gonna come in and not potentially
have the issues that I saw of why like I
had him down in like tier three or four of
wide receivers in this draft class, and it wasn't an
amazing draft class, So like there are concerns where like
he's maybe the fourth I mean Troy Franklin. Everybody was
namored him last year because he played with Bo Nicks

(55:39):
and all that speed, and he wasn't even a factor
of the entire year. So there is a world where
Marvin Mims actually keeps that role. I just think Pat
Bryant fills it better.

Speaker 1 (55:49):
I am very in on drafting more of a Mims
as wide receiver fifty nine to where he is. I'm
less on the idea of him finishing as a wide
receiver one. I don't think that'll have.

Speaker 2 (55:58):
That makes sense, And like at fifteen and I'll even
be on THEMS.

Speaker 1 (56:02):
Yeah, that's a pretty that's a cheap price, So I win,
You're gonna drift if that helps you. Jake, give us
our last name. Here another rookie.

Speaker 2 (56:12):
It's funny, guys, kind of said Romeo Doves because I
think there's some similarities in their game. But I think
Trey Harris immediately steps in as the number two for
the Chargers and all these other options, all the failed
Quinton Johnston's of the world, we just now have Lad
McConkie and Trey Harris. And this kind of goes in
kind of a theme with most of the wide receivers
I've been talking about, is looking for volume that's funneled

(56:36):
down into two options, And really, if you look at
the Chargers depth chart, sure could a wide receiver three
pop in there, Like maybe Mike Williams rebounds. I think
his career might even be over at this point. Maybe
Quinton Johnson finally shows something down at this point of
his career. Probably not, Maybe it's more of the tight
end by volume, the back whatever it might be. But
I think all these names that we're talking about kind

(56:56):
of tie into similarly from the Cardinals at the top
of the show is it's Harris and McConkie and then
just this conglomeration of everybody else where. Harris and mcconkee
should get fifty plus percent of the target volume every
single week. And I don't think we have to say.
I've seen people debating this on Twitter, is like, oh,
Harris could push for the number one, Like who cares?

(57:17):
Who cares if it's mcaky or Harris because both of them,
If justin Herbert has a little bit of a bounce
back from what he was three years ago, because this
is now two years in a row, or Herbert's kind
of been like eh, but if he gets back to
being a top fifteen fantasy quarterback. And even in Harball's offense,
you're talking about two players that can have well over
one hundred targets and have well into the top twenty
twenty five a wide receivers, and there's a long chance

(57:40):
for Harris to be a wide receiver one. I don't
think we're definitively saying any of these four are going
to be wide receiver ones. But I think that like,
if there's a chance down and there's a group and
maybe McConkie gets hurt. But I think Harris is a
rookie that stepped into a great situation and I would
honestly be this is one where I would be surprised
if he's not the number two from day one ericson

(58:02):
what do you think?

Speaker 4 (58:04):
I think that he could lose out on that number
two job to KeAndre Lambert Smith, the guy that drafted
in the fifth round. I like KeAndre Lambertsmith a ton
And the thing with Trey Harris that concerns me is
the guy's constantly injured. He was really banged up last year.
He missed half the season. He's missed injuries throughout his
college career. And if he misses games, what do we
see from old miss? I can't get the Jordan Watkins

(58:26):
five touchdown game out of my head, a game that
Trey Harris didn't play in. Jordan Walkins steps up in
potentially a Trey Harris esque role and has a monster game.
And to me, I'm thinking if Trey Harrison misses any
types of if he misses time, I think that KeAndre
Lambert Smith could come in and fill that deep vertical
route again.

Speaker 3 (58:45):
He's the guy from.

Speaker 4 (58:45):
Auburn he sent before going up transferring Auburn. He was
at Penn State and he was putting up decent numbers
despite all the NFL talent Penn State was putting out
between Theo Johnson, Tyler Warren, all those guys were on
that Penn State roster and Camdrew, Lambert Smith was putting
up good numbers despite that.

Speaker 3 (59:04):
So that's something I like to keep in mind.

Speaker 4 (59:07):
So I can think, yeah, Trey Harris is his job
to lose, but if he gets banged up, I think
that Lambert Smith can really surprise a lot of people.

Speaker 2 (59:13):
Injury aside, because that's fair. But like injury aside, like
if you said right now, Harris actually plays the full season,
opportunity that Lambert Smith passes Harris just on a healthy season, well.

Speaker 3 (59:27):
I think that both of them will pass Quinton Johnston.

Speaker 1 (59:29):
No, no, I know.

Speaker 2 (59:30):
But Lambert getting past Harris on non injury related do
you think there's a chance. I'm not saying you're crazy,
I'm just I'm curious that if you think there's any
chance non injury related, I.

Speaker 3 (59:43):
Think it's always a chance.

Speaker 4 (59:44):
I mean, we've seen guys that get drafted on Day
three outproduced guys that have higher draft capital again, it's
just tough because they have the draft capital, so they're
going to get the most opportunity to start with. But
the fact that I don't think that this regime is
tied to Quentin Johnston in any way, that if Lambert
Smith can then carve it that third receiver role, if
Johnson kind of falls out of favor, then yeah, I
think that he could.

Speaker 2 (01:00:04):
Oh that's certainly a chance too. I just was I
was curious that your opinion on Lambert Smith as a whole,
Like I was wondering if you were much higher on
Lambert Smith than I am. That's all.

Speaker 3 (01:00:12):
I really like Lambert Smith.

Speaker 4 (01:00:14):
I think that he fits justin Herbert from a vertical
deep threat perspective, like he's going to have like an
ADR touchdown this year, Like I can see it already
on red zone.

Speaker 3 (01:00:22):
Labert Smith's down the sideline touchdown.

Speaker 4 (01:00:24):
Chargers, Like that's going to happen at some point. Now,
maybe that just is a flukey play and it never
happens again. But I think that he was way too
talented to go as late as he did, just based
on what he did at Penn State and at Auburn.

Speaker 1 (01:00:35):
I know that usually I just host and you guys
picked names. I want to throw out a name because
we're talking about Rokies and get your guys opinion. I
know we don't want to wait too far into the
waters of like you have to rely on an injury
for this to happen, because that just gets to be
a train game to try to play. And Mecca Buka.
The two names ahead of him are a wide receiver
who is older and had some bit of injury stuff
last year, and then Chris Godwin. He's coming off a

(01:00:56):
major injury and you know reports are that it's going well,
but who knows. You know there could be a setback.
It's hard to tell once you see him on the
field again. If he gets a path available, either due
to Mike Evans surprisingly hitting an agecliff or Godwin injury stuff,
I think he's a great fit in this offense. He
was a top twenty pick. He's a very good receiver
in a PPR format. If he gets the opportunity, I

(01:01:18):
Thinkgbuka could way outperform his his draft capital right now,
which is wide receiver fifty eight. Jake, what do you
think about him?

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
If Evans or godwins his time, he's top twenty from
that point forward, I would immediately like to go back
to last year with Jennings filling in the akro, like
I would even be higher on Agbuka. Agbuka is in
a bad situation currently but great for next year. Like
I actually had him higher than a lot of people
in Dynasty because of that, because I'm looking more for it.

(01:01:46):
I know, you have to bite the bullet this year,
but something might happen injury as you just brought up,
and this was shedding a tear for one of my
favorites from last year and Jayla McMillan at the same time.
That's how much respect that I give it Buka.

Speaker 1 (01:01:58):
Yeah, and it's it's ericson you know, like you say,
it's like you realize an injury. But again, like Evans
is into his thirties, Godwin has had multiple major injuries
and it's coming off one now, so it's it's not
an unreasonable path.

Speaker 4 (01:02:10):
Well, I guess for me, it's like would you rather
take Egbuka or take Burden. Wait, it's kind of like.

Speaker 2 (01:02:16):
An injury wise because there's three verses two. That's why
like if either one gets hurt for the Bears, we're
talking about like well, there's still potential other options, like
the well.

Speaker 3 (01:02:29):
I mean, McMillan's not like he's not gone, like he
still matters.

Speaker 2 (01:02:32):
No, but I would take if book over McMillan every
day of the week. And that's coming from one of
the Like I might have been the highest McMillan person
last year pre draft in post draft, Like I'm just saying,
like I'm not saying that. The brag I'm saying that
is like I love McMillan. I thought people overlooked him
because of the injury in college and then what happened
when he came back with the dunesay and everything. So
like I look at that and I just think that Buka,

(01:02:53):
like put it this way, if you said, Mike Evans
not putting it out there, I really hope it doesn't happen,
but preseason injury out for the year, Buka would be
over every single rookie wide receiver for me, including Travis
Hunter and Totora mclin as. I can stumble over his name,
Ted mcmilland there you go, Tetoroa. Good grief.

Speaker 4 (01:03:14):
And so you wouldn't And so what if one of
those Bears receivers was out and.

Speaker 1 (01:03:18):
You if if Jim More gets hurt, I think you
can paint the picture for Burden taking a step forward,
But I wouldn't say it's like one hundred percent sure,
like he might be Baker versus Kleeb.

Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Ancillary pieces versus ancillary pieces. Fewer for the Bucks than
there are for the Bears, said Comet, You know, like loveling,
like everything. There's just a lot going on with the
Bears where I just think the path is cleaner. I'm
not saying you're crazy. I'm just saying the cleaner path
is with the Buccaneers.

Speaker 1 (01:03:48):
I also just am really confident in Buka is a
very good receiver.

Speaker 2 (01:03:52):
If you switch their teams and you said both got
hurt DJ Moore and Mike Evans, I would say Burden
on the Buccaneers. It just has to do with the teams.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
Well, they're only there are only four spots of party.
The cry two.

Speaker 2 (01:04:09):
Weeks ago in the comments for saying that Burden had
a path to potentially be in their best off. So
I'm with you on Burden. I just it comes down
to the teams.

Speaker 4 (01:04:17):
It's ultimately gonna come down to which of the other
receivers end up getting hurt and which ones don't anyway, So.

Speaker 1 (01:04:22):
Golden is ahead of both of them, and I would
definitely rather take a BUCA for Golden.

Speaker 2 (01:04:25):
Yeah, no question.

Speaker 1 (01:04:27):
Yeah, all right, we'll get out of there on that.
You rather have Marvin Man, he's behind them all.

Speaker 2 (01:04:32):
God bless your health to everybody we're talking about.

Speaker 1 (01:04:34):
Yes, uh and Guka is one spot ahead of him,
so they're backs back to me. We'll see what happens
with us two. Got an extra name in there for everybody.
Thanks everybody for tuning into this episode identifying our next
breakout wide receiver ones for Jake and Ericson. I'm Ryan Warmley.
Thanks for tuning in. We'll see again next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If
you love the show, the best free way to support

(01:04:56):
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
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Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
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Speaker 1 (01:05:04):
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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Identifying The Next Breakout WR1s (Ep. 1574)