MAKE OR BREAK | Will These 12 Players Lead to Victory or Defeat? (Ep. 1569) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey b Joe Pi Zapia,
and today we're gonna take a look at some players
who might be a little controversial going in the top
seventy five picks for so it's best ball season, it's
redraft season before we know it, and some players will
lead us to victory, but others could lead us towards defeat,
and we're gonna have that debate today. The smoke just

(00:23):
went up before the show, which means that my colleagues
have been chosen. So it's Debro, Derek Brown, the King
of Bros, and Andrew Erickson, the Undertaker himself. Usually when
a cloud of smoke goes up there around Derek Brown,
it's a different sort of party. But today it's just
going to be football talk. That's it. That's what we're
gonna do here today. And don't forget everybody to subscribe

(00:43):
to the YouTube channel trying to get to three hundred
thousand this year. We could do it with your help,
So subscribe to Fantasy Pros right now, ring the belt
to what goes things. You don't miss a piece of content.
We have some great shows breaking down on the rookies
recently debro and Jake and I just did a fantastic
short as well. So all that content out there, some
rookies that are can surprise you. Rookies are going to go
out there and make their mark in twenty twenty five,

(01:05):
after the dust has settled on the NFL Draft. So boys,
let's jump in with two feet, shall we. Let's talk
about the ultimate victory or defeat guy Christian McCaffrey. Oh, oh,
woe is everybody that had Christian McCaffrey last year just
did not work out. Most people took him one overall,
and well, he played four games and to say played,

(01:26):
I guess is also sort of, you know, not the
best verbiage to use. But here we are with Christian
McCaffrey at this stage's career. He's twenty eight years old.
Currently looking at his ECR, he is going around pick sixteen.
Now I think this is early ECR. I do believe
is the closer we get to draft season that's going
to go up and up. So that might have a
little bit to do with some of the feelings that

(01:47):
everybody has. Andrew Erickson drafting Christian McCaffrey at sixteen in
the expert consensus rankings right now? Overall, is that a
move that's going to lead fantasy managers to victory or
to defeat in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
I think it's gonna lead fantasy managers to victory because
last year obviously did not work out. But I think
that for the most part, most of us felt we
didn't want to take McCaffrey one on one overall because
we cited all the touches he was coming off of
and the age that he was at, and that's not
the case this year, though. You look at the forty
nine ers and what he did last year. He had
sixty five touches last year. That was it. That's the
lowest of his NFL career in any season. So forever

(02:23):
gonna get a renaissance McCaffrey season, it would be in
twenty twenty five where you have the forty nine ers,
look at their schedule, they have the easiest schedule in
the NFL coming up next season based on Vegas forecast
did win totals, So last year it was fay the
forty nine ers into oblivion. We talked about it on
all the betting Pro shows talking about the schedule is horrible.

(02:43):
This team was so healthy in twenty twenty three. They're
gonna get injured all over the place, and all that
stuff came to fruition, which is why the time is
now to buy the dip on a player like Christian McCaffery,
because what do we know even when he when he
does play, he's going to score a ton of fantasy points.
Kyle Shanahan can say whatever he wants about, we're gonna
try to get other guys involved the minute that CMC
hits the field. The guy did not help himself. Even

(03:06):
last year when Daffrey's like pointing out his calf, Coach,
I need to get out, I need to break Shanahan's like, no,
you need to keep playing. And even last year on
the small sample size, he was still pretty efficient. He
was really just the lack of touchdowns. He went over
one hundred yards form scrimage in his first two games
back in weeks ten and eleven, So I'm in especially
you're getting him at the end of round one beginning
a round two, so I'm gonna be drafting Christian McCaffrey E.

(03:26):
Twenty twenty five for victory.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
All right, well, dee bro, I'm gonna throw a number
at you here. That's four. He's had four great seasons
and four incomplete ones. Right, That's that's what we've had
with Christian McCaffrey. So twenty seventeen obviously, you know, first
season there, then twenty eighteen great, twenty nineteen great, twenty twenty,
twenty twenty one not so good. Both of those years

(03:49):
are down, twenty two and twenty three awesome, and then
last year again incomplete. So it's difficult because you have
running backs like guys that we think, okay, they're done
and then they bounce back like Adrian Peterson. I mean,
it doesn't have and all that often at the running
back position. You can go look at John Riggins in
the eighties. Again, it's just not something you see as
a running back gets older where they pounce back and
are prolific again. But it's basically a fifty percent shot

(04:11):
his entire career that Christian McCaffrey is a victory player
and the other fifty percent it's not that he's not bad,
he's complete defeat because he's not there enough to contribute.
So that's where I struggle with McCaffrey. Where do you
land on victory or defeat when it comes to CMC.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
I'm with ericson on victory with this one. I think
we're getting a value on him. I think he's got
one more fantastic season left in the tank. I think
there's concerns about the offense. I think the biggest concern
around CMC for me is not even so much the
health right now, because coming off of bilateral Achilles tendon
itis getting the stem cell stuff. We saw similar things

(04:47):
where George Kittle battled that for multiple years, got the
procedure and then has been good ever since then. Maybe
he's been dinged up in other facets, but not with
the Achilles stuff. CMC also had the PCL's brain, but
he should walk into cam M I mean healthy from
that injury as well. I think the biggest concern for
CMC that I would have is just the offensive line.

(05:08):
I think it's gonna be dog water. But again, that
really hasn't slowed down the forty nine ers when they've
had healthy, skilled players. And Erickson talked about this just
for further contact CMC when he was on the field
last year. Amongst all running backs with at least twenty
five targets or at least one hundred carries. This dudes
was eighth in mis tackle rate and sixth then yards
per route run, so on a per touch basis, he

(05:30):
was still the same CMC. So I mean, now we're
gonna get a dip and he's going at the back
end of the first round. I've got him right now
as my RB five. Walking into this year for ranks,
I'm in on CMC.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
Last year we were maybe we were scrimping of the
rafters about you know, four hundred bucks touches fadom fadom.
Does that mean we're all fading Saquon Barkley this year too,
just out of cures.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
I am not drafting him second Barkley this year.

Speaker 1 (05:52):
So I am there.

Speaker 3 (05:53):
I'm not. I'm not that nch and on either.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
So I think, yes, we got to be consistent.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
Process.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
I had five hundred touches last year, and he's an
older running back that's gotten hurt a lot before.

Speaker 1 (06:06):
Right, he's another incomplete guy. Often it's victory or another guy.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
Can we just say we're done with trying to fade
Derek Henry like he's just a unicorn at this point,
we just did not to get us off the rails.

Speaker 1 (06:16):
But liking about I'm screaming from the rooftops last year,
how much did I scream about what a great thing
it is that Derek Henry was going to be a raven?
I mean, a team that ran the ball more than
anybody with a good offensive line. Getting Dereck Henry, I mean,
this is this wasn't complicated, you know, And I'm gonna
what I'm gonna draft him in this year too. I
don't care. Will I draft Jonathan Taylor? That's a question

(06:37):
that fantasy managers are asking themselves everywhere. Jonathan Taylor ECR seventeen,
right behind McCaffrey. Now, he's coming off a far more
productive season obviously, three hundred and three touches, fourteen hundred
rushing yards for him, eleven touchdowns, eighteen receptions for one
hundred and thirty six receiving yards and another touchdown and
the receiving side. So Tebro will start with you on
this one. Taylor is in an offense again that's going

(06:58):
to be run by Anthony Interesting possibly or maybe Daniel Jones.
But at this stage, do you think that Jonathan Taylor
is a victory guy or a defeat guy.

Speaker 3 (07:09):
I think he's a defeat guy. And this comes down to,
oh gosh, I think I felt that there was a
disturbance in the forest. I think fits he felt it
as soon as I.

Speaker 1 (07:16):
Said, that's why he's not on the show today, because.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
You exactly yeah, he would. He would not.

Speaker 1 (07:21):
Happy Jonathan Taylor defeat. No.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
No.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
But my worries with Jonathan Taylor one, it's the injury stuff.
I mean, this guy hasn't played more than fourteen games
since twenty twenty one, fourteen, ten, eleven, constantly dinged up.
The big thing with him is I think if you
if you pop up in the hood. It's two big
things for Taylor with me that could he be a
low Enn RB one, Sure, but we look at the
context of the offense. I'm worried a lot about quarterback

(07:45):
play and how often they're gonna be in the reds
on what that looks like. But the other things about Taylor,
specifically the pass game upside is not there. He's new
Nick Chubb, right, and look, unless we're talking about a
lot of positive game scripts, which we could have that debate.
But then the word for Taylor if they are trailing
what happens then, And the other part about it is
all this otherworldly efficiency on a per touch basis kind

(08:08):
of went to the wayside last year. Guys like to
Jonathan Taylor amongst forty six qualifying backs was forty second
and misstackle rate forty fourth and yards of the contact
per attempt. So outside of the volume, there's a lot
of other concerns about Taylor where I struggled to see
the upside case for him, and I see more downside

(08:29):
every time that I just look at a new statistical
category for him.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
But Eric said, the volume is there, and we always
say volume is king the flourish at the end of
the season, especially after the bye. Against Denver in week fifteen,
twenty two carries for one oh seven. Then against tennessee
twenty nine carries for two to eighteen and three touchdowns.
Against the Giants Week seventeen thirty two carries for one
to twenty five and two touchdowns, and then Week eighteen

(08:53):
thirty four carries. I mean, just massive workloads there, one
seventy seven and a touchdown too. So although the passing
game has kind of faded into oblivion, he is incredibly
steady in terms of the carry volume.

Speaker 2 (09:04):
Yeah, he's definitely steady any type of running back. But
when you were citing his stats, and I always had
a double checkman, did he really have fourteen hundred rushing
yards last year? Did he really score? Yeah, twelve touchdowns
and he was already ten Like he was already ten.
So that's the issue where he can have all these
great rushing numbers, but if he doesn't replicate that exactly
and he doesn't have the pass game usage to kind

(09:26):
of help bolster the production that much farther, well, how
is he going to crack inside the top five when
he finishes RB one. It was one of the weakest
running back years, so he kind of was vaulted up
because everyone else was significantly worse behind him. So I
think the past game usage is significance is concern. We're
looking at Jonathan Taylor's high end ceiling, and then you
look at this offense with the Colts, who's a quarterback.

(09:47):
We don't even know how's the offensive line. Half of
it's in Minnesota right now. So that's like the concern
with me with buying into Jonathan Taylor, where I think
I don't know if maybe he fits this category where
he's going to make or break you where Yeah, he's
gonna get in a volume, he's gonna get IF's health,
he's gonnaet three ndred touches. So I don't think that's
gonna kill you. But is it gonna end up being
Jonathanilor was the best pick that I made in my

(10:07):
fantasy draft? I don't think so. For those reasons, I'm
more likely to pick somebody else than Jonathan Taylor in
the beginning of round two.

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Speaker 1 (11:30):
Let's get to the third player on our list. Ooh,
this is a tricky one. Tyreek Hill, another guy who
was at the top of draft boards last year. It
did not go well for Tyreek Kill. The ECR right
now going into twenty twenty five and the early going
is thirty one. So this is a player that people
are trying to figure out do they want to invest again.
He's had some issues off the field. He's had some

(11:52):
health issues on the field that have kept him off
the field, and basically the chaos of everything that's gone
on with the Miami Dolphins organization in the last think
two years. It feels like a really bad trend. It
feels like Mike McDaniel could be not long for that position,
I think in twenty twenty five. So with all the chaos,
is that an opportunity to make a victory plant your
flag kind of moment with Tyreek Hill because of the

(12:14):
talent Andrew or is he possibly leading us towards defeat?

Speaker 2 (12:18):
Defeat? For me, I think there are just so many
red flags that I don't want to overthink it, especially
in round three where you're looking at Terereka. There's a
lot of other great options that you can draft, other
receivers with high upside that don't have all this extra baggage.
Talked about at the end of the season, he wanted
to quit on his team, he wants to be traded,
and now he's kind of come back on those comments
a little bit. But what does does he end this

(12:39):
year on the Miami Dolphins. Is he's playing in the
Miami Dolphins Week one, Maybe I'd like him more if
he wasn't on the Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (12:45):
But for me it's you saw the production fall off. Now,
a lot of that was related to Tua being injured,
but even in the games and too was healthy, this
offense still wasn't functioning like we've seen in the past.
Eleven games with two as his quarterback, he only won
over one hundred yards twice, average role point four fantasy
points per game wide receiver.

Speaker 1 (13:02):
Three times, three times. Looking at the game log with
shooting him one, Oh, I'm.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Yeah, with Tua exactly three times total.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
I thought you meant with just periods, So not just
with Tua. Don't make me defend.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
Tyreek Hill is not playing. We're not playing Tyryk kill
and he's not in our lineup. He's not even anywhere
near our line. You don't like Zach Wilson, you don't like.

Speaker 1 (13:23):
Quinn yours, qu yours time already.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
Come on, I don't.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
I don't think if the clock is broken, I don't think.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
So. He's entering his age thirty one season. And for me,
if you want to bet on Miami Dolphins Stever, I'll
just take Jayleen Waddle significantly, going way cheaper in drafts.
I think they have similar upside cases in the offense
when we've seen this offense really be productive. So just
too many red flags for me.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
Hashtag the Mighty Quinn Tyreek Hill de bro certainly a
down season from him, but the total was one hundred
and twenty three targets, eighty one catches, nine hundred and
fifty nine yards, just six touchdowns on the season. That's
a drop off from a year before of nearly half
of everything. The touchdowns went from thirteen to six, the
yardage went from seventeen ninety nine down to nine to

(14:06):
fifty nine. So a huge difference in the productivity, so
also a huge difference in the expected ADP. Is that
enticing to you or is he a defeat? Also, Nope,
he's a defeat.

Speaker 3 (14:18):
You want to talk about things that are Craig Cray,
Joe Tyreek Hill ad wide receiver fourteen dude, No, no way,
Like I'm just not again. Ericson kind of talked about
this father time is undefeated, dude going into your age
thirty one season and he's coming off of a year
where with Tua under center, his yards per route run
he ranked thirty ninth, his target share hovered around twenty percent.

(14:42):
He was thirty fourth in that metric, and then if
you look at just separation and per route metrics, this
dude was forty eighth in route win rate. So no,
like I'm not there is no dip to buy here.
This this is we're buying Tyreek Hill. Like he's gonna
keep chugging along. And oh, by the way, news ca
out he's having a second surgery also, and so it's like,

(15:03):
is he gonna be healthy? Is he gonna be on
this team?

Speaker 1 (15:06):
Is he not gonna pull an ab?

Speaker 3 (15:07):
And like my week six, he's like pulling off his
jersey and he's like forget you guys, I'm out and
he walks off the field. I don't know, but I
know one thing.

Speaker 1 (15:15):
I don't want to draft him. I think that's fair.
I think the decline might be settling in, which is
gonna be really tough because I think a lot of
people will see the name Tyreek Hill and just run
towards it, especially on a discount, and it might not
be the victory that you think it is. In twenty
twenty five. At least let's get to another name on
at least back to the running backs here. BREECEE Hall

(15:37):
right after Tyreek Hill at ECR thirty two. So Breshall
last year only had one rushing game over one hundred
yards last season. That's not gonna get it done. Like
the Jets were a hot mess last year, we all
know that the total there was two hundred and nine
carries for five touchdowns eight seventy six. He also had
fifty seven receptions though, for four hundred and eighty three
and three more touchdowns. So debro. They're certainly opportunity here

(16:01):
with the new head coach and what seems like a
very clear, let's run the football, play defense kind of
approach with Justin Fields a quarterback. But at the same time,
the whispers of Aaron Glenn talking about We've got quote
unquote three running backs that we plan to utilize all
of them. That doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy.
So is it victory or defeat for Breeze Hall?

Speaker 3 (16:21):
Where were we sit with this right now? I'm going
to say defeat because I am.

Speaker 1 (16:25):
Really worried about the RBBC.

Speaker 3 (16:26):
There. I'm the other thing about it is the thing
that's given us the floor in the high ceiling for
Breeze Hall is the past game involvement. Do we think
that that continues with Justin Fields Like instead of checking
it down, he's gonna be ready to take off running.
And I'm not saying he's got a lot of other
receiving options outside of Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor. But
in this situation with Breece Hall, like again, we're not

(16:48):
getting much of a discount. He's RB thirteen, his ECR
is thirty two. It's just too much risk to take
in considering where he's going in drafts Now he drops
down the board. Maybe I'm more inclined to pick him
when we get closer to week one, but right now
defeat Yeah, I think it is really.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
About where you get him in the if you should
slip to the fourth round. I think I'm very intrigued
because he's twenty three years old. Ericson, I think he's
still the best back in this backfield, and I think that,
you know, last year, obviously the offensive play calling left
a lot to be desired, as it always did, because
Hackett's a complete moron of going to put that out

(17:28):
there on the record. Sorry. I mean if you didn't
realize that when he was head coach of the Denver Broncos,
then I don't know what you were watching there, But
by by all means, let's hire him as an offensive
coordinator right after that.

Speaker 3 (17:39):
Couldn't hack it.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
I see what you did there to play on words.
I like it. Ericson what do you want to do
with Breese Hall here? You've been a breeze Haall guy.
Are you walking away or are you claiming victory folding?

Speaker 2 (17:51):
I'm walking away from the table, which really pays me
because I am a Breezehall guy and I was totally
wrong about him last year, so that was a fortunate
But I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and I'm
looking at again running back by committee. A lot of
it's coach speak right now. We don't know exactly, but
it's a new coaching staff and you have to be
opening to the idea is that they don't have allegiance
to any of these guys. Briestall's in the last year

(18:13):
of his contract. They may say, hey, we want to
run into the ground, he smashes, We all feel great.
He signs a new team in free agency, or they decide, oh,
we really like this Braylan Allen guy because he gets
the yards that we want. He's a no nonsense rusher.
And I pointed out this on one of the earlier
shows this week, talking about Braylan Allen as a sleeper
because he picks up the yards on third and short
that Breese Hall doesn't. He is one of the highest

(18:34):
success rates on third down. Breese Hall last two seasons
eighth worst and success rate fourth worst and success rate
he doesn't. He tries to hit the home run too much,
and that pisses off coaches sometimes, like dude, we don't
need you to hit a home running. We just want
you to get the three yards. And that's my concern
with Hall is the Lions are going to be or
excuse me, the Jets, We're more open to using some
of these other running backs. And the ceiling with Hall

(18:57):
was always connected to the receiving and that's why I
thought the fit with Rogers be great. And you pointed
out he did catch a lot of passes last year,
but it still wasn't enough because the rushing also wasn't there.
So I love the expulsive as I love that you
can catch passes, but based on the way this offense
projects with Justin Fields as the quarterback, I don't think
this is the year could be backing on Breese Hall.
Maybe in the future on a different team it can
be different, but for now, I'd rather take Braylan Allen

(19:19):
at his basically free ADP at draft.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Brees Hall interesting to see too. I want to put
the show together. A couple of days ago, the ECR
was thirty two. Right now when we're recording, it's thirty five.
So just a trend to keep an eye on as
I continue to move backwards. If it slips to forty,
I'm here for it. I'm going to I'm gonna take
my shot there with the discount running backs. Let's go
to his teammate for a moment, if we will. Garrett Wilson.

(19:42):
Last year, you know, I didn't feel like a wide
receiver eleven finish for some reason for Garrett Wilson, but
it was at the end of the day. He had
one hundred and fifty four targets called one hundred and
one balls for eleven hundred and forty yards seven touchdowns.
So a relatively good season for Garrett Wilson statistically speaking,
but the Jets just were the Jets last year. So

(20:03):
now the question is are you looking at him Andrew
as a player that is going to build on last
year or because Justin Field says I struggled at times
to really, you know, be prolific as a passer at
the NFL level, He's great for fantasy, he could separate
that for real life necessarily too. What kind of impact
is Field's going to have on the fantasy value of

(20:23):
Garrett Wilson. Will he be a victory for our fantasy
managers out there or defeat?

Speaker 2 (20:29):
I think he's gonna be a victory. And this also
plays into my Breez Hall defeat where I didn't really
feel like praising victory two Jets players two years in
a row was going to work. So I was like,
all right, I gotta pick one guy, and I'm on
the Garret side here, not the Breee Hall side, because
I think that Justin Fields can unlock another ceiling for
Garrett Wilson. We've seen Fields do this before. First year
with Dj Moore, dig Moore had a career high in

(20:53):
terms of Fantasy points scored. He was wide receiver six.
So we've seen Justin Field with the right receiver fuel
them to a lot of fantasy success, and Garrett Wilson
talking about all this guy does is command targets. Since
entering the NFL, the only guys that have more targets
than Garret Wilson are Devanta Adams, who was his former
teammate last year. Was the reason why his numbers fell
off because it was Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to

(21:15):
Devanta Adams and Ceedee Lamb. Those are the only two
guys that have more targets than Garrett Wilson. There's nobody
behind him on the step chart. That's why Mason Tayo's
getting drafted and all these rookie drafts because he's the
second guy that prodicts for targets. So I think Garrett
Wilson and Justin Fields, again, you have a connection from
Ohio State. So although there are some that are lackluster
in terms of believing in Justin Field as a passer,

(21:35):
I think he's going to dial in on Garret Wilson
as his guy. I think he's going to see double
digit targets and anytime they throw, it's going to Garrett Wilson,
so I like him a lot.

Speaker 1 (21:43):
That's what he does, right, Dero. He's not prolific, but
he does get tunnel vision for a guy like you
did with DJ Moore and kind of like you did
for the first six games with the Steelers with George
Pickens too. It's like, Okay, I'm gonna throw the ball
George Pickens. So that's a good thing because there is
history there between Wilson and Fields. It's why I kept
predicting in all the offseason shows that Fields would be
the quarterback of the Jets, and it just all made
too much sense, and that's where he ended up. And

(22:04):
I'm in on it. I think it's gonna be a victory.
You're giving me a guy that finishes a top twelve
wide receiver and you're giving them to me in the
end of the third round. I'm gonna take that. Every
single time.

Speaker 3 (22:14):
I agree with both of you. I think it's a victory.
Man like looking to Wilson wide receiver seventeen. He finishes
the wide receiver eighteen last year, competing with Devonte Adams
for the back half of the year, which hurt his numbers.
And Derekson's point, I'm just echoing all the things that
he said, man like it's it's no target competition, like
he's fighting with Josh Reynolds, Downlozar, Tyler Johnson Wolf. So

(22:36):
plus you've seen fields in that year with DJ Moore.
Dj Moore soaked up almost a twenty six percent target
share in that offense. That's probably the flour for Garrett
Wilson this year. So it might all not not always
be pretty volume, but it's gonna be a ton of it. Dude,
I'm here for it. I'll be drafting here at Wilson
a lot.

Speaker 1 (22:57):
All right, Let's see if they're here for the next guy,
number forty two in ECR, currently wide receiver from the
Kansas City Chiefs, Rushie Rice. A lot of this has
to do with the unknown, that's the problem. So the
end of the season two years ago, we saw Rushie
Rice look really good, into the playoffs, into the stretch run.
He became the number one target for this offense which
desperately needed one as Travis Kelsey continued to age and

(23:19):
Tyreek Hill was in Miami being Tyreek Hill. And then
last year at the start of the season, two of
his first three games one hundred yards receiving, so he
looked like the dude to quote unquote. The problem is
now he's heard again. We're hoping that he gets back healthy,
but he also could be facing a suspension. We keep
waiting for this loving suspension at some point to attach
itself to Rushi Rice. So with all that uncertainty, is

(23:43):
he a victory or a defeat currently for you on
the draft board, Derek.

Speaker 3 (23:48):
He's a defeat. I there are a few passing attacks
that I just don't want to invest in this year
because it feels full moneyball committee approach. Kansas City has
one of them, Buffalo is another, and Green Bay is
the third. And Dude, my biggest problem move for she
Rice outside of the suspension, and we could talk about

(24:08):
that four days. My problem over She is him and
Xavier Worthy are fighting for the exact same role they
basically they opt Worthy didn't take off last year until
Rare she was out and he played the Rashi Rice role.
Rashi Rice started off that year in that role where
basically it was from weeks one to three, Rashi Rice
a dot was four point eight his design target ra

(24:30):
was twenty seven point six. Worthy. Weeks thirteen through sixteen
a dot dropped to six point three and his design
target rate was out almost twenty six percent. So it's like,
all right, is Rashi going to be suspended? Is he
going to be fully healthy? Is he going to be
playing that same role or does that go to worthy
this year? I don't know, but I could tell you
I don't want to draft him at current cost and

(24:51):
I don't want to deal with the headache.

Speaker 1 (24:53):
Ericson, was it too much of a headache for you
to draft Rushi Rice? Is he a defeat? Also?

Speaker 2 (24:58):
Yes, he is a defeat for me, although I think
I'm probably a little bit more optimistic about the Chiefs
passing game for Rice. It comes down to the injury.
Just coming off a major knee injury. I feel when
you go into the season with a lot of this
injury optimism, when the guy's not discounted, it just ends
up burning you. Again, it's a different injury from Tank Dell.
But as anyone get surprised after the first couple of

(25:19):
weeks he comes back. Oh, Rice, he's not himself because
he's coming out this knee injury. Because that's usually what happens. Like,
that's usually how these situations play out. And I will
say to the suspension risk, I know that Drew Davenport
is kind of become Fantasy Football's legal expert, and he's
chimed in a lot about how he doesn't expect Rice
to get suspended this year, just based on the way
that the civil case is set up. So I'm not

(25:41):
worried about the suspension, but I think the injury is
still a real risk. And if he comes back slowly,
and then going back to there's only one Xavier Rushie
Rice role in this Chief's offense. Only one guy can
have it, and who's going to be repping it in
OTAs and in the offseason program. The guy that's not
coming off of major knee injury is Xavier Worthy. So
again they go into siml or spot to in draft
or at least in ECR, and right now, I would

(26:02):
just rather have Worthy, So that's the guy I'll draft.

Speaker 1 (26:05):
Could God, that's such a such an underrated, great cheesy movie.
I love so much. The first one after that, I
gets it's you know what's so great about the Highlands
are like Sean Connery. No, Oh, it's it's so ridiculous.
The whole movie is ridiculous, and I love it. It's
so great. One of my professors at Oxford is actually
in that movie. Who Hugh Quarshi was also in Star
Wars is in that movie. He gets his head chopped

(26:27):
off of that movie Star Wars.

Speaker 3 (26:30):
No in uh in in Highland.

Speaker 2 (26:32):
I don't remember that part. That's like, I google Hugh
cars Have you seen all the Star Wars movies? Come on,
I'm the one that wrote the Star Wars article for
the West Side.

Speaker 3 (26:42):
Now.

Speaker 1 (26:43):
Yeah, here's the best thing about the Highlander. Sean Connery.
His character is supposed to be a Spaniard, but he
has a Scottish accent. The Highlander himself it's supposed to
be Scottish, but he's played by Christopher Lambert who has
a French accent. The Kurgan is supposed to be Russian,
played by Clancy Brown, and he has an American accent.
The whole thing is facacta. The whole thing makes no sense,

(27:04):
and it is fantastic and all the music's done by Queen.
I mean, what more do you need? Is the greatest
eighties vibe movie. I'll die on that hill. It's so
good and I wish somebody would take it. We're talking
about remaking something that had a great idea but never
was made right, The Highlander, which brings us to today's
Chasing Challenges segment brought to you by Microsoft, just like

(27:27):
the f and no, it's not going to be about
the Highlander today. Chasing Challengers segment by Microsoft, just like
the athletes, to push boundaries and redefine what's possible in business.
Decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities and Microsoft
meet you where you are with tools and guidance to
help you impact with safe, secure AI solutions. So whatever
challenges you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to

(27:47):
say bring it on. In this segment, we're gonna spotlight
the challenges ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs offense because
Tyreek Hill went away and they still kept winning Super Bowls.
And I get it. At the time, you still had
Travis Kelsey who was high level producer, and then you
kind of stumbled on Rushie Rice. But Travis Kelsey is
on the back side of his career and I think

(28:08):
now the margin for error has just become larger. Patrick
Mahomes has gone from a quarterback who's still get in
the Super Bowls, but statistically speaking, has fallen off a
little bit in the last couple of seasons, and he
needs more help. They're trying to get more help on
the offensive line. I get that, and I know they
tried to put together you know, Marky's, Hollywood Brown and
a few other guys, and they drafted Xavier Worthy hoping
that he would be the answer. And Worthy kind of

(28:29):
found his footing towards the end of the year. But
I think Rice is really the guy that is gonna
make or break this offense. I think that's the one
that Mahomes feels most connected to, most confident in. And
if you look at all of those targets in the
red zone he got towards the second part of two
years ago, you could see that he really depended on
Rushie Rice. So as far as I'm concerned, Rice being

(28:51):
healthy really connects to whether or not Mahomes is going
to propel himself back into that elite tier of quarterback,
because in fantasy, he hasn't been that the last couple
of years. I don't think Xavier Worthy is going to
step up and be that guy either. I like Worthy,
he's fond he can get in to the big play.
But the consistency factor that's not there, and I don't
look for consistency from Hollywood Brown. Jalen Royle's is an
interesting prospect, but there's a lot more questions and answers

(29:13):
right now and right now. That is the challenge facing
the chiefs, and that's this week's Chasing Challengers segment. Remember
Microsoft AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and
new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft
as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with
confidence of finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit
Microsoft dot com Slash Challengers to learn more. Let's get

(29:34):
to the next guy on our list. How about Davante
Adams Here ECR of thirty eight is where we're looking
right now, and DeVante's got a new landing spot. It's
the Rams and Joey likey this landing spot. I'm excited
about this. I'm excited about the ADP. I'm single handedly
going to ruin this for everybody else because I'm going

(29:55):
to talk about it for the entire offseason. Because if
Pooka goes down, DeVante Adams up and be the one.
I don't see a lot of decline his game from
last year, So declined Aaron Rodgers. I think Devanta Adams
still got something left in the tank. But maybe I'm
wrong Andrew Rickson, Davante Adams, are you in or out?

Speaker 2 (30:13):
You're definitely not wrong. Yeah, like I You're very right
about Devanta Adams. The only thing that's wrong here is
why he's going after Tyre Kill. Like that's the issue
that I'm trying to get. Yeah, my mind around here
where his ECR is lower than Tyree Kills and again
guys of similar age past the age of thirty. But
you're looking at the situation in the rams, it's just perfect.

(30:34):
You're getting a guy like at Danta Adams who all
he does is command targets and command targets downfield and
in the red zone, basically all the targets we care
about when it comes to scoring fantasy points. Like, that's
what Devanta Adams is. You make the perfect fantasy wide
receiver in a lab out pops Dvanta Adams holding a
taco bell taco and he's ready to get so I
and then you add him with Matthew Stafford, who only
Stafford wakes up and just produces top twelve Fantasy wide receivers.

(30:57):
He's a machine. So even with Pokinaku still there, I
want both of these rams receivers on my team. And
like at the point you said, where is DeVante Adams
ranked the week that Pukino always going to miss this week?
Where is he in the weekly rankings top three, three,
two one? But like, that's how high his ceiling is.
So not only does he come with a really high floor,
he has a extremely high ceiling. Has arguably one of

(31:19):
the highest scoring players at the position. So I'm all
in on DeVante.

Speaker 1 (31:23):
It's hard not to be all in on the Taco
Belt order as well. DeVante Adams the ECR and now
is thirty eight, so I think that's very user friendly currently.
De bro, I guess keep seeing the upside is you
know Pooka we know has had trouble staying healthy in college,
He has troubles staying healthy so far in his early
pro career. He is dazzling when he's there. This offense
can support two wide receivers. We saw that with Cup

(31:44):
when he was still you know, a live body and
not dust, and then you saw it with Pukinaku and
the two of them at one point and sporadically, but
if Puka goes down again, Adams becomes a huge fantasy
boom because I think the Rams are one of the
best challengers the Eagles have, I think in this conference,
and I think they are for real, and that defense
came together well last year. A lot of good vibes

(32:07):
right now in LA and putting Stafford in atoms together
at this juncture in their careers for this kind of
like one more run. I like this a lot, especially
the value you're getting.

Speaker 3 (32:16):
I love, love, love everything y'all have said to this point.
I love it all. I've got Davante Adams to put
some more respect on his name. I've got him at
wide receiver nine in my rankings. I think. I mean
Stafford is a king maker. It is a consolidated target tree.
We know where the ball is going and it's going
to be a huge amount of targets for Pukin Nakua
and DeVante Adams. And yes, Davante did not fall off

(32:41):
at all with the Jets, like after he got done
with the Raiders last year. With the Jets, this dude
amongst seventy nine qualifying wide receivers twenty second in separation
twenty seventh of route win rate. He was on pace
for one hundred and seventy six targets one hundred and
four receptions at thirteen hundred receiving yards. He was the
wide receiver seven in Fantasy points per game with the Jets.

(33:04):
He's he's gonna be a top ten wide receiver for
the Rams this year, like both of these guys are.

Speaker 1 (33:08):
I'm all in. And it's funny because you know, I'm
usually a very early wide receiver person. But the way
the draft is shaping up this year, if I took
Derek Henry in the first round, at some point, you're
gonna give me and you know at the you know,
at second and the third, I get Garrett Wilson and
DeVante Adams. I'm willing to I mean, I know it's
a little bit older of a team there with two
of those guys, but I'm willing to go to war
with that. I just think that's a really nice setup potentially,

(33:31):
So we'll see. The early ECR is always interesting to.

Speaker 3 (33:34):
Your point, Joey, are we going to go back in
the into the wayback machine? Are we going rb arby
and then slamming wide receivers this year.

Speaker 1 (33:40):
Man, if I'm at the turn and you give me
McCaffrey and Henry or Ashton, Genty and Henry, and then
I get Adams and Wilson in the rounds three and four,
which is not out of their own possibility. Man, I
don't know how I say no to that. I mean,
I'm just gonna gonna count the running back position at
that point. All right, let's get to the next guy.
We've agreed a lot, and we're gonna disagree on this

(34:01):
one because you guys are happy and I'm not. Kenneth Walker,
the third ECR forty three, currently look another incomplete season
from him. I'm sick and tired of it. You guys
are famous for talking about new regimes, new regimes. Well again,
new regime came in last year and again another incomplete
season for him. This is two years in a row
where the productivity's declining and the offensive line stinks, and

(34:23):
the quarterback is Sam Darnold and we know his limitations
at the very least, so I know we are getting
a discount. But I'm at players that play, and to me,
Ken Walker right now just feels like a guy I'd
rather take. I guess here's the big point. If you're
looking at where he's gonna go potentially in like the
expert consensus rankings, right, and you know the guys that
around the DJ Moores than around there, the Marvin Harrison

(34:44):
Junior is even Havin Kamara or Courtland Sutton. I kind
of know what I'm getting with those guys, whereas I
don't know what I'm getting with ken Walker. That's where
I struggle. So for me, he's a defeat. But Deebro,
tell me why you think he's a victory.

Speaker 3 (34:56):
I think he's a victory because your injury proneent to
you or not. This has not been anything related to talent.
It's been related to offensive line situation. They added Greg Zabel.
They were so horrifically bad last year bottom five in
yards adjusted yards before contact per attempt.

Speaker 1 (35:12):
They have nowhere to go but up.

Speaker 3 (35:14):
I think health as well as I mean, dude, there's
reasons why they fired Ryan Grubbs last year. This team
wants in this head coach wants to run the ball,
and when ken Walker is healthy, there is no question
that is his backfield man. He was quietly the RB
twelve and Fantasy points per game last year and I
don't think a lot of people realize that. And the

(35:34):
other thing, he was catching a ton of passes, and
I don't think that changes with Sammy Darnold under center.
Walker still is one of the best pure rushers in
the NFL. The only thing we haven't seen is a
fully healthy season from him, but first in mess tackles
for US per attempt last year amongst forty five qualifying
running backs. For everybody that said ken Walker catch catch passes,

(35:57):
he coughing too everybody with that. Last year he was
top six and first downs per route run, targets per
route run, and receiving yards per game. If he's healthy
this year, I'm also gonna go on a limb he
could have a Josh Jacobs in Raiders type of season
this year and be a top five back If he's
healthy this year, I'm in on Walker.

Speaker 1 (36:17):
That's an interesting comparison to Jacob because that's another guy
too that was kind of contract dead too and then
bounce back in a big way last year with Green Bay,
So that that's an interesting one. You make some good arguments.
You haven't swayed me though. I'm still out, but it
was it was a good stuff. I enjoyed it. I
might watch it back later again and maybe maybe I'll
change my tune, but repeat sleep with it. What do

(36:38):
you think victory or defeat? Let's be the tie breaker
here for Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 2 (36:42):
The third victory victory when it comes to Kenneth Walker
because he checks up all the box of a running
back that I want, because he's explosive, he catches passes
just like deebro outline. Again, that was a knock on
his game, but he answered that question last year and
he's super efficient. He had one of the highest mistackle
rates last year because of the line couldn't do anything
to help him block. He forced more mistackles last year

(37:03):
and fewer games played than the two years combined before,
which I thought was a crazy stat.

Speaker 1 (37:07):
Because he had to because the offensive line was so bad.
But at the same time, that also leads again, it's
like chicken in the egg. That's what leads to the
injuries and then he misses time and how many tackles
you break except for the fact that you're on the
injury reserve for half a season. Like that's that's where
I struggled.

Speaker 2 (37:22):
You're impressive, played eleven games. It wasn't half the season.
He played eleven eleven game and he was a monster
in most of those games, very productive. So I'm just
buying part of the talent. I'm buying the improved situation.
Seeat I did my draft grades, they had the highest
draft grade for me because I love what they did
with the table. Are both tackles going to get hurt again?
Two years in a row? Both starting tackles are going
to get injured? I don't think so. You usually see

(37:43):
injury regression work positively after a season where they all
get hurt. It doesn't usually happen two years in a row.
So the contract year thing is also really important to
point out, because what if Mike McDonald decides this guy's
not being our team next year? We got Damien Martinez
way in the Wags. We like Charbone, He'll be the
RBA one in twenty twenty six, Let's get Ken Walker
three did fifty touches and just see what happens. And
I want to be on that ride.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
Define monster because he had one game, the first game
in the area, had one hundred yards. He never had
one hundred yards in any other game. His high watermark
of rushing yards in a game was eighty week four, but.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
He was catching glasses too, so that that also matters
for his points.

Speaker 3 (38:19):
It's not rushing eight thirty three twenty twenty three points
good to me.

Speaker 1 (38:26):
I don't know, man, I don't know eight total touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (38:30):
That it's okay game with us right now. But I
think we're gonna get We're gonna get you on the
on the train.

Speaker 2 (38:36):
But do you think it's going to be a time share?

Speaker 1 (38:39):
No, here's what I think. I guess that I don't
want to draft Walker where he's currently going. And if
you draft Walker, I think you have to draft Sharpenay
because and that's good because at least you know Sharpenay
is one of those guys that can feel and be good.
So that's that's nice to have a handcuff where you
actually go. It's not just the handcuff, it's a handcuff
that's that's useful, and you know it's just gonna slot
right in. It's like, do I want to waste another

(39:00):
roster spot on like the Seattle backfield? Is that is
that a prolific offensive ecosystem that I want to be
involved in? And the answer is no, there's other ecosystems
I want to be involved in.

Speaker 2 (39:10):
And besides that one Saints, is that what you're saying
for the worst one? Okay name Walker's ADP. So I
just wasn't sure.

Speaker 1 (39:19):
Yeah, all right, throw up on that show right now,
Marvin Harrison Junior, Oh my god, it is so bad.
Last year, It's just I was just I was all
in And this one hurt forty seven is where he's
currently listed in terms of his ECR ranking. It's like

(39:41):
it's like for a guy who can run all the routes,
they did not give him a lot of routes to run.
And and the most annoying thing besides Kyler Murray's body
language all year to me was Kyler Murray statements like, well,
my job is not to forced the ball to Marvin
Harrison Junior. I disagree, I respectfully disagre. I think it's
exactly what your freaking job is because the rest of

(40:03):
those guys outside of Tray McBride are just jags. So
what the hell are we doing here? You know, it's
funny when you force the ball to Malak Neighbors or
cdee lamb. You know, kiss what good things happen trying
maybe you'll like it this year Kyler. Now I don't.
I don't know where I'm at with victory of defeat
yet because Kyler Murray and I are on a break.
But Debro, where are you at with Marvin Harrison?

Speaker 3 (40:24):
Dude, I'm not in on Kyler Murray, but I am
in on Marvin Harrison Junior. And this is Drew Petsying.
Please do smart stuff, smarter than you did last year
like that. That's all I'm asking. Like, we like what
you did with James Connor in the run game and
stuff like that. But dude, wake up and use this
receiver right. Pretend like you actually watched his film at
Ohio State. Pretend like you know what you're doing as

(40:47):
an OC. Please, because the usage of Marvin Harrison Junior
to begin the season was ridiculously moronic. Weeks one through nine,
this guy was running horizontal breaking routes over the middle
of the field twenty nine percent of the time, vertical
routes almost fifty percent of the time. Yeah, we drafted
in really high to rank clear outs for Trey McBride
every single game.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 3 (41:10):
But in Petsing's defense, slightly, he kind of woke up
a little bit. Weeks ten through eighteen, the horizontal breaking
routes went up from twenty nine percent to forty one,
vertical dropped from forty nine to thirty eight. So he
kind of realized, oh wait, this is really dumb. I
should change this, and I hope that that's what happens
in twenty twenty five, because if he is going to

(41:33):
use him in the short and inter intermediate parts of
the field and the high volume type of routes that
we want, Marvin Erson Junior proved last year he can
get open on those. He was top twenty in both
separation and route win rate on horizontal breaking routes. If
that happens, yes, Marvin Errison Junior, big victory, gonna bounce back.

(41:54):
If Petsing does more stupid stuff, it's gonna be a defeat.
Right now, I'm gonna go with the assumption of rational
coaching and say it's a victory.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
But you're a better man than I am. I'm not
there yet. I am abstaining from this one two touchdowns
in his last seven games. To quote Danny McBride from
Eastbound and Down. I'm not trying to be the best
at running like that's what Marvin Harrison was. He was
the best at running the next year. So Ericson, I
don't know, man, like this is tough because I want

(42:24):
to believe, but my frustration comes from just the lack
of self awareness. And I shouldn't be surprised. It's the
Arizona Cardinals. I mean, they're kind of the kings of this.
They're not a good organizations and they never have been.
So where are you at here with Marvin?

Speaker 2 (42:37):
I'm trying to take my motions out of it, because
I don't think Harris Better was obviously a very polarizing
player last year. I just think that it was on
the Fantasy Counity and the ADP. They just put him
in a position whereas like, yeah, you basically have to
fire and there's no excuses, just based on how high
he was going. So I think there's an aftermat of
that where people are now afraid because it got burned
so badly with Marvin Harrison Junior last year. But we

(42:59):
just look at the usage that he had fifth and
the end zone targets last year. We love that for
Fantasy wide receivers, seventh in air yard share, fifth in
ariyard share. So the usage metrics are all there, so
you can see and I can paint a picture of
how he is productive by a large margin for fantasy
football purpose. It's just a matter of can he and
Kyler Murray kind of just click a little bit more
entering year two and you see guys take steps in

(43:20):
year two all the time. He has more reps with
his quarterback under center. I think a lot about his
rookie year. Again, Deebro kind of outlined this and so
diad Jew where maybe it's less about it Marvin Harrison
really more about like a Kyler thing kind of going
on and maybe kind of overvalued. Oh, Kyler's gonna fuel
Marvin Harrison Junior in his year one because he did
with DeAndre Hopkins. Well, you know, DeAndre Hopkins is potentially
a Hall of Fame wide receiver and Marvin Harrison will
see what happens in the year two, but I don't

(43:41):
think he was on that level yet. So for me,
I think that this is a prime Bilow opportunity on
a post hype sleeper and Marvin Harrison and junior where
he's a top ten pick sixth overall, I'm not gonna
I don't think that he's a bad player in any way,
and I think just last year the expectations brew is
way too high. And now he's discounted. What's different? Oh,
he just sucks.

Speaker 4 (43:59):
Now.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
I don't think that's the case. So if anything, you're
just getting met a discount with the think the exact
same path for upside. And we know Kay mcbrid is
never gonna score any touchdowns. So who's gonna score touchdowns
for the Cardinals in the passing game. It's probably gonna
be Marvin Harrison. So coaching staff still believes in him.
So I'm gonna take another flyer on Harrison.

Speaker 1 (44:17):
Kyler Murray's body language in the huddle it's the same
lask my daughter to empty the dishwasher, same vibe.

Speaker 3 (44:25):
I've seen that.

Speaker 1 (44:26):
Look, can you have you a dishwasher?

Speaker 2 (44:30):
Yep?

Speaker 3 (44:32):
Go by the way, you got to show this clip
because I'm sure she'll love it. You'll get the same look.

Speaker 1 (44:36):
Yeah. Probably. Let's go to another guy on our listen,
Marion Hampton at fifty. We're excited about the future, but
there's a future. Start right away, Andrew Erickson for Hampton
because Naji Harris is there. I'm on the fence because
they signed Nausey. They drafted to Mario and Hampton. It's
a veteran head coach. He's probably gonna give the veteran
more time than he should. That's my concern with Hampton.

(44:57):
Ericson is do you share that concern?

Speaker 2 (45:00):
See this bottle here, it's just filled with cold water, baby,
because I'm pulling cold water all over this. Omaron Hampton
year one going to be an immediate producer. This is
actually the first player that Deebro and I disagree with
as where five players or nine players deep here and
I am concerned that it's just not going to be
a perfect runway for Omrion Hampton in year one. Naja Harris, yes,

(45:21):
signed a one year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers,
not for a lot of money, but we look at
him in respect to the rest of the running backs
in free agency this year, he made the most money,
so the Chargers. The Chargers paid the most expensive guy
in free agency at the running back position. They obviously
drafted Hampton in round one, but I don't just envision
a scenario where Na she just doesn't play at all.
The one thing that Harris has done since entering the

(45:43):
NFL is just be really consistent and offer a super
high floor. He has never missed a game. He's played
in all seventy one games that he's been possible to
play in, He's rushed. He's the only player in the
NFL or rush for at least one thousand rushing yards
in the last four seasons. I don't think Harba was
gonna look at me like, yeah, no, whatever, We're never
gonna use this guy. I mean, they brought him in
for some reason. So I think that he's still going

(46:05):
to have a role, and I think it's gonna be
kind of annoying for those that just draft here in
Hampton round four expect, oh, day one, he's gonna be
the bellcou I don't. I don't think that's gonna be
the case. So Hampton and Dynasty, it is a different
conversation because Harris can be one and done in LA.
But for year one, I think Harris is gonna it's
gonna take a lot for him to just get totally

(46:25):
removed from the offensive game plan. And I think something
to keep in mind too, is JK. Dobbins is still
out there. They put a certain tender on him where
they can still bring him back if he doesn't get
better deals elsewhere. So this man up being a three
headed committee. And so that's.

Speaker 1 (46:40):
Another's They brought Dobbins back injuries, and you know.

Speaker 2 (46:48):
They have two other running backs. No other team is.

Speaker 1 (46:50):
Somewhere else where Dobbins would go. But but to your point,
he doesn't even take a lot. He just has to
take enough to be annoying away from Hampton de bro
That's that's where I struggle. And that's kind of why
I'm in andres, which is defeat.

Speaker 3 (47:02):
Yeah, And and I will say I could be on
in the l on this one, I'm going with victory.
And and part of this is I'm leaning on the talent.
Part of this is yet nause is a known commodity.
But again like that that that could be a blessing
and a curse. Like we know we're getting out of nause.
It's a lot of volume in its dependability, but there's
no explosive playability. And to me, if you really like thought,

(47:24):
Nase is going to have like this giant role. And
I know it's only a one year deal, but the
other thing is why do you spend the first round
capital on a Mario and Hampton? I think he offers
this team something different than what Naji Harris can offer
or even JK. Dobbins last year. And that's big plays,
that's the ability to hold up on the volume. And
so again I could be wrong with this, but I'm

(47:45):
leaning on the draft capital side. If you were to
tell me that that the Chargers went out and they
they drafted a back in the third of the fourth round,
then yes, I would be conceding. I'd say this is
defeat and it's probably gonna be annoying. It's probably gonna
be irritating the entire year. I do lean on this
side of talent and draft capital and think that Hampton
this might start off being like a fifty to fifty

(48:06):
or a sixty forty. I think Hampton wins out on that,
but I think as we go through the season, Hampton
can separate and will separate himself from nausey. But I'll
own this like this could be I was on the
fence with this one.

Speaker 1 (48:17):
Yeah, Oh look at Na. She's that some wear and
tear on him too, So you never know what happens here.
All right, let's get two more in here under the wire.
Chris o lave ECR sixty guy just traded him in
my dynasty league before more negative could possibly come out,
and actually got decent value. I got a two nine
and a three oh one turn into Scataboo and Trey
Harris with those picks. So I'm very happy with that

(48:38):
return because I'm looking at the New Orleans offense as
being a completely under disaster. The line is bad, the
quarterback situation is worse. De Bro, this is easy for me.
This is an easy defeat.

Speaker 3 (48:48):
Yeah, same here, man, Like not even bringing up the
concussion stuff for Chrystal Lava, but just looking at like
the quarterback issues, like I don't think Derek Carr plays
a snap this year, Like I think the shoulder injury
eventually gonna come out as bad, probably season injuring like
what we shall see. So there's some projecting there that
I'm doing. But okay, if that's not the case. One,

(49:09):
it wasn't great when Carr was there, so how great
do we feel about it?

Speaker 1 (49:12):
Anyway?

Speaker 3 (49:12):
Even if we can assume hell for Chris Lave and
if he's not there, it's Spencer Rattler, yuck, we've seen
what that looks like. It's Tyler Schuck. Oh sheeesum, no,
please no, so a LaVey, it's to me, it's he's
a wide receiver.

Speaker 1 (49:26):
Three.

Speaker 3 (49:27):
Okay, then we're saying it's a lot of volume. But
then there's so many of the things. It's like, how
do you possibly project any type of ceiling out of
him where he outperforms this just massively and he's a
top fifteen wide receiver. Oh well, he also isn't a
wide receiver that with his archetype, we should be expecting
what more than four to maybe six receiving touchdowns unless

(49:48):
he just runs hot runs pure with that. So no,
I'm not gonna be drafting a lot of chrysal lava.
I'll be going on other directions and drafts.

Speaker 1 (49:56):
This mystery around the Derek Carr situation, like people get hurt,
you get a diagnose, surgery or not, Like, what the
hell is happening here? This is like months of not
it's so bizarre.

Speaker 3 (50:05):
Well details too, Like it was like he didn't know
that he was really hurt until he started throwing again, Like, well,
now you know you're hurt, so get.

Speaker 1 (50:15):
What's happening here?

Speaker 3 (50:16):
None of us, including Ericson, are like in her twenties anymore,
so like, yeah, so when you wake up and your
shoulders hurting. You knew your shoulder wasn't one hundred percent, Like,
get out of.

Speaker 1 (50:24):
Here with that man. I think he's trying to force
his way to the Steelers or somewhere else. Like I
just think he's trying to figure that out and what
it looks like.

Speaker 3 (50:31):
I think he's done getting beat up behind that crappy
offensive line and he's like that.

Speaker 1 (50:35):
That's what I'm saying. I'm with you, ericson what do
you think here about a Lave? Another easy defeat?

Speaker 2 (50:40):
Yeah, easy defeat for me. My problems with the Lave
are historically what he's done. He just hasn't had a
high weekly ceiling. Like he's not a ceiling fantasy receiver,
So you're not offering me a high end ceiling than
what are you offering me? Just replaceable production but more
cost because of the name brand, because he's Cryslav, because
he went to Ohio State, he was the first round pick.
So three years in the NFL, he's averaged fewer than

(51:03):
two top twelve fantasy finishes weekly three years into the league.
So Rashi Shahad basically offers I think the same exact ceiling.
So if you want to take a shot on this
Saints offense, which we're kind of talking about how we
don't want to do that, just draft forshie hahat. He
outproduced Chris Olave last season when they were both helping
on the field together, And over the last twenty four

(51:24):
games that Chris Olave Rashichia played together, Olave sixty four
receiving arts per game, Shaheed fifty six and a half
receiving arts per game. They really haven't been that much different.
But the draft capital suggests Olave is the best, more
superior player. But I mean on a per game basis,
Shahead has been almost just as productive. So if you're
gonna take a shot on the Saints receiver, just wait
to draft Shaheed later.

Speaker 1 (51:44):
All right, last guy was certainly not least Patrick Mahomes
ECR of sixty four. Right now, currently he is the
seventh quarterback in the ECR as well, and last year, again,
I think we ca'd say disappointing based on expectations, and
expectations were very high. I mean, this is a guy
that would is a top four quarterback three years in
a row. He's been number one overall a few times.

(52:05):
Twenty twenty three, number eighty, twenty four, number eleven. So
things are going in the wrong direction here for Patrick
Mahomes and his fantasy value Andrew Erickson. Is sixty four
an opportunity for victory or is it defeat?

Speaker 2 (52:17):
I am taking them buying the dip on Patrick Mahomes,
even though there was a dip last year. I'm buying
the further dip on Patrick Holmes because I think that
he's the best quarterback in the NFL, and eventually you
could only hold that title for so long and not
score fantasy points. I think eventually the tides are gonna
turn with Mahomes and he's gonna bounce back. You're gonna
see it in the box score. Last year, Again, I
don't think it was all his fault. We saw offensive

(52:37):
line issues, we saw Travis Kelsey show his age. Xavi're
Worthy took time to get going. Roshie Rice got hurt
because of Patrick Mahomes. But after Week eight, Chiefs quarterback
twenty one fantasy points per game. That's what he averaged
once they started getting Xavier Worthy back into that Rashie
Rice role. So their second and passik overexpectation last year,
are we really worried about, Well, it's gonna be Pajecko,
It's gonna be the Pajeco Show Andareem Hunt Show. They

(52:59):
know this all needs to do something different, and I
think it's going to be through. Hey, why don't we
rely on our quarterback? Patrick Mahomes the best in the NFL.
So he's usually a quarterback that you can never draft
in fantasy because he's always, oh, he's like in the
top three or top four. But now he's finally in
that range where he's at the end of that elite
tier where man, I can feel good about taking a
guy like Mahomes. If I'm not going the full blown

(53:21):
late round quarterback strategy, I don't feel like I'm overpaying.
So I can still load up on the running backs
and receivers that we talked about earlier and grab Mahomes
in round five, round six and feel okay, like he
can turn this thing around. He's done it before, and
I think that things are in a positive light trending,
especially after the upgrades on the O line.

Speaker 1 (53:36):
Andrew makes a great point, which is there's opportunity here
at he bro, which is if he bounces back into
that number four guy, you're getting a guy who's going
to help you win a fantasy league. The downside is,
you know you're also then taking a player who might
just kind of be in this mid to low QB
one range and you could take shots on, you know,
justin Herbert Jared Goff probably a couple of rounds later,
who would also set up to be pretty decent or

(53:57):
at least serviceable at the very least. So where do
you stand here with Mahomes.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
I'm out. I'm out on Mahomes. And this offense last
year wasn't amazing. It was pretty good. They were eleventh
in points, they were fourteenth and passing yards. And I
think I'm not saying that Patrick Mahomes in an NFL
standpoint isn't the best quarterback in the NFL. But on
paper he has been pretty freaking bad over the last

(54:23):
two years, like in certain aspects, and I think that's
what's taken away to his ceiling. Dude, he has had
six point eight seven point zero yards per attempt over
the last two years.

Speaker 1 (54:33):
He's been QB ten, QB.

Speaker 3 (54:34):
Eleven, and fantasy points per game that is low in
QB one production. That is absolutely replaceable. Even right now,
the mahomes name is cashing checks that his production cannot
even match.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
He's QB seven and ECR. Tell me how he is
lighting the checks and not cashing them. But I think
everybody got the metaphor you ago.

Speaker 3 (54:56):
Yeah, well I screwed up the metaphor.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
That was Welsh too much. Now you're st I've heard.

Speaker 3 (55:00):
Us a metaphor as much as Patrick Mahmes has grewn
up fantasy production of the last two years. Tell me
take the name out of this boys. Amongst forty qualifying
quarterbacks last year, this is where Patrick Mahomes ranks twenty
ninth and highly accurate throw rate thirty sixth and hero
throw rate, he had the fifth lowest deep ball rate

(55:21):
over the last two years he has been. This isn't
even arguable. He has been horrific as a downfill passer
over the last two years. Fifth lowest, ninth lowest CPOE
on downfield throw eighth highest and sixth highest off target rates.
So where's the ceiling coming from? Guys, Like we just
talked about, the passing volume has been there, that hasn't changed,

(55:44):
but the efficiency and his accurate throws have not been there.
So like if he reverses the trend. Okay, fine, After
two years of seeing this, the skill players around him
are not that different. What is changing that?

Speaker 2 (55:59):
To me?

Speaker 3 (56:00):
He's an avoid, He's a low NQB one fine based
off of volume, I struggle to see the ceiling at all.

Speaker 1 (56:08):
It's a great debate, so let's continue it in the chat.
If you're in the YouTube comments, drop your comments below.
Patrick Mahomes victory of defeat any of these guys victories
or defeats that we talked about. What side are you on?
Drop your comments below in the chat. Subscribe to Fantasy
Pros YouTube channel and Ring the Belts and that goes
ding for notifications so you don't miss any of draft
prep season. That'll do it for us, but the story

(56:29):
of the game goes on for Debro and ericson. I'm
Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.

Speaker 4 (56:34):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros
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Speaker 2 (57:02):
Sh

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MAKE OR BREAK | Will These 12 Players Lead to Victory or Defeat? (Ep. 1569)

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}MAKE OR BREAK | Will These 12 Players Lead to Victory or Defeat? (Ep. 1569)