Week 12 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1852)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
It's the week twelve and final edition of the trade
show for the season wide receivers to buy and sell
will be.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
The focus for this particular episode, and we'll.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
Also chat about some quarterbacks and tight ends that we've
got in our sites. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and
I'm joined by a man whose roots remain so great
in the state of Massachusetts. They've run so deep that
I think some actually think he's a direct descendant of
the og Pilgrims. Yes, he's Andrew Erickson ericson how are you?
And with no show next week, I gotta ask what

(00:34):
are your buys and sells of Thanksgiving dishes?

Speaker 3 (00:37):
I knew that you were going to tie in some
type of Thanksgiving questions drop the Pilgrim type of thing
they're going on, which I haven't heard that where it's
since last Thanksgiving. So for me, my buyes are definitely
the meat, meat potatoes. That's that's I kind of okay,
That's why I gravitate towards steak potatoes type of guy.
So I like the turkey, I like the mashed potatoes,

(00:58):
I like sweet potatoes. Well, it's a good compliment to
the the kind of savoriness of okay, the mashed potatoes.
You get the sweetness of the sweet potatoes. And I
just try to avoid most vegetables because they're just filler. Oh,
they're just kind of just filler for me. So I
don't I don't eat salads or things like that. It's

(01:19):
rabbit it's rabbit food, basically, and it just fills me
up when I could be putting better things in my
stomach that I actually want to eat.

Speaker 1 (01:25):
Well, that is a bummer to hear because one of
my buys is salads. My oh no, So my cousin
makes two huge bowls of salad every year and I
sit at like the kid's table, young adults table, and
I am the only one every single year who eats
the salad and I always get made fun of for it.
But Cousin Keith, I appreciate your salad. It's always well done. Also, stuffing,

(01:48):
stuffing is my favorite part of the meal by far.
I Also, I don't know if your family does this,
but like I am in charge of the buffalo chicken
dip at our Thanksgiving, Like I bring like all the appetizers, right,
we got different dips going, we got cheese tray, veggie tray,
that type of stuff. Are you buying on the apps
or is it two filling for you as well with
the salad? Just can't do it on your old Tommy.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
No, I mean that's why I don't have the salad
so I can make more room for the apps. And
a tip on the buff chick the buff chick dip.
Have you ever tried to put it into Wanton's and
then put it in an air fryer? Yeah, that's a mind.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
No, but that sounds like something right up my alley,
so very good.

Speaker 3 (02:23):
I'll send you the recipe.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
Okay, all right, I appreciate that.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Cells for me dry turkey, like you can miss me
on dry turkey.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
I need like a.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
Moist good turkey. I'm actually even like a ham guy
over turkey. To be honest with you, I won't tell
my mother in law that that's kind of how I feel.
Also like I don't know with you being an og
pilgrim to send it. Maybe you do like cranberry sauce.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
I don't. I have no interest in it at all.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, I don't understand the hype.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
I don't.

Speaker 3 (02:49):
I don't mind it.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
Okay, thank you, I thank you.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
I don't. I don't ever try to find it and
put it on my plate.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
It's gross looking.

Speaker 1 (02:55):
Yeah, around here, I've seen like different things, like people
will do like a thinks giving Hogi at our local
Hogi shop, and I'm like, it has cranberry one. I
don't really want turkey and stuffing and everything like that,
like on hoey, I'm okay with that and the cranberry
sastress rooms it all for me, so no, thank you.

Speaker 3 (03:12):
It's always funny when you see like these sub shops,
like Subway we'll have their Thanksgiving sub and like, nah, dude,
I don't want to eat my Thanksgiving dinner in a sub.
I just really don't.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
And I'm the biggest sub guy around.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
Man.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
I could eat Hogi's every single day in my life.
But just really that Okay, okay, okay, I can do meatball.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
Sub but every once in a while on a Saturday
with some college football, that's usually a go to for me.
But eric'son enough on the Thanksgiving talk. We do have
an absolutely loaded show for everyone. The program looks like this,
Ericson's top wide receiver buys and sales, plus his favorite
quarterbacks to move or acquire. We'll then round out the
show with the trip to the post office right ahead
of the holiday season to answer any listener questions we

(03:56):
have in the FP meal mail bag. And before we
jump in, shout everyone who is a part of our
Fantasy Pros family right here on the FP YouTube channel
or the audio feed. We are very thankful for all
of you making time for us during your busy holiday schedules. Plus,
make sure you guys are supporting us. The easiest way
to do it is give this video a thumbs up.
If you enjoy this type of content, make sure you

(04:17):
subscribe to the channel. If you're new, we're trying to
get to three hundred thousand subs by the end of
the season.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
We can do that with your help.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
Also, if you want a chance to win one of
the most unique pieces of NFL fan gear out there,
the large NFLPA Wallsmack courtesy are friends over at Trophy Smack,
the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, This
is your shot. They're oversized, officially licensed NFLPA Walsmack, our
bold statement pieces that are perfect for your fan cave.

(04:45):
Office or even living room wall unless you have a
fiancee like maybe Missus Ericson or Katie and that they
don't want.

Speaker 2 (04:51):
That type of day core.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
But it's not just a core, it's a way to
rep your favorite players in style. To enture, all you
need to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube
channel right now, drop a comment below, and that's it.
We will be announcing a winner right here on the program,
so make sure you turn on those notifications so you
could be alerted when new episodes are up and clean
this epic prize. We have this prize also out there
at Draft Night out. That's a draft party I do

(05:14):
with the Famous Football Expo every year. This is one
of the hottest tickets every year in the raffle that
we're doing. So really appreciate Trophy Smack continuing to help
us out on the giveaway front and Ericson. Let's jump
right in to the wide receivers you're trying to acquire
right ahead the deadline.

Speaker 3 (05:30):
Justin Jefferson wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings. The targets, opportunities,
air yards, red zone targets. That hasn't been the problem
with Justin Jefferson. Last week he had nine targets, twenty
eight percent target chair. He's had a high tiger chair
with JJ McCarthy. He's seen a lot of air yards,
a lot of red zone targets. Yeap, just has not
turned into actual fantasy production that we'd all like to

(05:51):
see from a guy that we were taking in the
first round of our fantasy football drafts. And compared to
when Wentz was the starter as well, his yards have
not nearly been as high when you had the veteran
quarter in there. So the reason with Jefferson that I
want to buy it stems from the schedule. Schedule is
absolutely fantastic when you look at who the Minnesota Vikings
are going to be playing. Now, the next two weeks

(06:12):
are not great Akaring Bay and at Seattle, but after that,
weeks fourteen through seventeen you have Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, and Lions.

Speaker 2 (06:19):
Yes, right, plus matchups.

Speaker 3 (06:20):
That is an elite stretch. When you look at the
strength of schedule. That's the number one schedule for wide
receivers over that time. Oh wow, Okay, so yes, it's
been frustrating with Jefferson, but you know, if McCarthy gets
more starts. I feel like there's a path where he
can continue to try to get better or at least
to a point where he's a little bit more consistent
in supporting his fantasy assets. Again, just two weeks ago,

(06:43):
Jalen Naylor was number two wide receiver on the week,
So it's in him to fuel a guy to be
a top five wide receiver on the week. And even
though Jefferson has been disappointing, he's not like killing you.
He's still seeing a decent amount of numbers in terms
of PPR points. He's merely been more like a low
end fantasy wide receiver too than obviously the locked and
low the top ten guy that you drafted. But I'm
chasing the schedule, I'm chasing positive aggression. Again. He's wide

(07:06):
receiver seven in expected points per game, but wide receiver
nineteen and actual points per game. Is justin Jefferson really
going to finish the season outside the top fifteen wide
receivers when he's never finished lower than wide receiver six
in any year that he's played in full I think
worst case scenario's probably gonna be closer to that ten
to twelve range, which means we're going to see some
positive games from him, especially in some of these plus

(07:27):
matchups where I think McCarthy that can be just a
little bit better. And my last point that I want
to make last year, who was a wide receiver that
struggled immensely with a young quarterback that was basically terrible
Courtland Sutton. Weeks one through seven, he was outside the
top forty wide receivers. It was bad. And what happened
The quarterback got more experience, started feeding his number one

(07:49):
guy that more and what did Qurtlon Sutton finish as
a wide receiver one on the year, And he was
a very very good asset to have. So I'm going
to buy into the talent of Jefferson even if it
doesn't come to fruition like the ceiling play, I think
it might. I think there is still a floor here,
So I don't think that you're just totally left holding
the bag completely. And obviously you're not trading away Jefferson

(08:10):
because you're not going to get anything worth him with
all of the negative surrounding JJ McCarthy right now. So
for those reasons, he's a bye. I mean, jettas he's
one of the best pide receivers in the NFL's bylow
on the talent.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
This was one I definitely had to dig into a
little bit when I saw this name because I've been
a little disappointed with Justin Jefferson myself, and I only
roster him in a league or two out of the
Cup or the you know, the fifteen or so leagues
I'm in.

Speaker 2 (08:35):
But he's been so consistent.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
Right, only one game below double digit PPR points this season,
but only two wide receiver one finishes. You pointed out though,
it's really the improvement that could potentially come for a
JJ McCarthy down the stretch and the matchup that is
really going to set up for him, and the opportunity
is there.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
You went through number one in deep.

Speaker 1 (08:53):
Target, seventh and first red target, sixth in target share
in target's fifth in air yards. So I just need
to see the efficiency improved, right, one point five fantasy
points per target seventieth, that's terrible efficiency. Also, quarterback rating
per target sixty four point nine, eighty second among wide receivers.
So those are those things that we could see improve
down the stretch and with that schedule and more time

(09:14):
for JJ McCarthy to get his feet under him, like folks,
we can't forget. This is a guy who did not
get to take any practice reps at all his rookie
season in the NFL because he was injured, and then
missed how many matchups this year as well?

Speaker 2 (09:27):
So I'm with you.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
I think Justin Jefferson is someone you need to go
out and acquire. Will there ever be a point that
he is lower in his entire career than this, I
don't think there.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
Is, Nope.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
And I think when you're looking at it from that perspective,
the process just says you gotta buy and nothing else matters.
It's like when a guy has talented as Jefferson is cheap,
he's gotta buy. It doesn't matter what the other circumstantial
factors are. And who knows, maybe he'll be cheaper after Seattle,
but hey, the trade deadline's probably over by then, so
you gotta buy now.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, and uh, Andrew, you also are target a receiver
and it's one that warms my heart.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
Being a proud member of the Lures fan base.

Speaker 3 (10:07):
DK Metcalf wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. This guy
on the list, and I was even thinking more about
it and thinking, is this guy I really want to
put on on the list here because I've had an
up and down kind of season with Metcalf, where early
on in the year I was very much on the
cell dk Metcalf, there's no way he's going to be
able to sustain this type of production, and I guess

(10:27):
I was kind of right because we have kind of
seen it tail up, especially over the last three games
where Metcalf has been really disappointing. But going back to
using the tools on Fantasy Bros, the number one striketh
the schedule tool that says for wide receivers is the
Pittsburgh Steelers, So mechef has a lot of favorable matchups
down the stretch and he's just kind of run bad
the last couple of weeks. I mean, even in this

(10:47):
last game he had a thirty yard passing the gated
by an offensiveass interference call. He still had eight targets,
which was his second highest on the year. He had
five catches, which also tied for the highest, for forty
nine yards, had a twenty six percent target share, sixty
nine percent of the air yards. And just given the
fact that we have so many question marks about Aaron Rodgers,
whether he's gonna play this week. I don't think it's
a long term injury for him. I think at most

(11:08):
he would probably just missed this one game. But all
these things are giving you an opportunity to buy low
on a receiver that I think has been pretty solid
for most of the season. He'd been more of a
wide receiver two than a wide receiver one. But we've
seen it hit some spike weeks with some of these
big plays that he can generate either as downfield threat
or after the catch, and it does go back a
lot to the schedule as well. I just think it's

(11:30):
really really favorable for him, especially in the fantasy football playoffs.
So for me, DK Metcalf again kind of like more
of a process play off. Another bad game. Quarterbacks are hurt,
and basically if you had bought low on every single
quarterback or every receiver attached to a quarterback that got hurt,
you'd be printing money essentially. Like, that's something that I
need to really reconsider heading into next year, where the

(11:51):
minute that the starting quarterback goes down, you just buy
that wide receiver because more often than not, at least
the sample size we had this year was these veterans
coming in just end up being upgrades for their wide receivers.
I want to dive more into it specifically because I
don't think it's like that easy. But I think some
of it stems from these backups come in. They play
really loose, they don't care, and they just like sling it.

(12:13):
And that's why you see these guys produce for fantasy,
whereas you get these starters, and even kind of the
reverse with McCarthy, where McCarthy's probably playing a little bit
more tight than Carson Wentz was. Wentz is out there like, dude,
I'm just gonna like chuck it to the Jeffrey so it
makes it easy Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco. So again not
a perfect science because we've seen some back of quarters
obviously bring down everything, like the Jake Brownings of the world.

(12:35):
But again, I don't think Mason Rudolph is going to
substantially tank DK Mete. He's a serviceable quarterback. So for
those reasons, I think metcalf is a prime by low candidate.

Speaker 1 (12:48):
Yeah. Also, Jameis Winston right, Drake and the Doves now
doing a little Harlem shake in the end zone.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
Y'all love that, and I love your point too.

Speaker 1 (12:56):
I don't think Mason Rudolph, Rudolph the red nose Reindeer,
as we like to call him out here in Western Pennsylvania.
I don't think he's gonna tank DK at all, because
in the two of three games with George Pickens at
the end of that twenty twenty three season in Pittsburgh,
GP was a certified league winner with Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
One of those games, wide receiver two to thirty five
point five points per game.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
I remember that day, just like goes yesterday. I was
out of Permiani Brothers.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
It was snowing outside, it was snowing in Pittsburgh, and
he went off against the Bengals, and then also another
one of those games the week right after that, wide
receiver nine to twenty point one fantasy points. While George
Pickens certainly is not the exact same receiver as DK metcalf,
I mean, they're pretty similar, right, They're both outfits, especially
in this Pittsburgh offense where there's really no one outside

(13:41):
of them. My only concern at the beginning of this
season was that maybe Arthur Smith, like somehow tanks this
and I was at least bought into the point where
I took DK Metcalf over twelve hundred and fifty receiving
yards on the season. I don't think I'm gonna hit that, honestly,
And I think it's just like the target share, right,
twenty point one target share, just sixty two targets on
the season, thirty first among wide receivers. I guess that's

(14:05):
just Arthur Smith football. But yeah, so like that's disappointing, right,
Like I thought DK would have probably closer a twenty
five twenty seven percent target share. But still I'm with you.
I think Mason Rudolph for a couple weeks is a
steady hand to get them rolling back in the right direction.
Rogers comes back and it's a really good stretch. So
I'm with you here on buying DK Metcalf Andrew.

Speaker 3 (14:24):
Yeah. I do want to note one thing else on
Rogers as well. So this was actually something I stumbled
upon when I was looking on X for some information
about Rodgers and just kind of like the injury. So
this was from Jack Sperry on X and basically he
kind of looked at Rogers. I don't know if you
remember the report, Seth, remember when he got that report
that Rogers hurt his finger in like pregame warm ups
against the Colts.

Speaker 2 (14:45):
Yes, so that was three.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
Games ago, and that has also coincided with DK Metcalfs
drop off of his last three games. Intro, Maybe Rogers
hasn't really been playing at one hundred percent again, I mean,
he's obviously not been good over the last three weeks,
but maybe it is stemming for another injury that he's
been dealing with. So maybe the best thing for him is, hey,
shit him down for a week, let us fig or
get healthy, let us risk get healthier or whatever. And

(15:09):
maybe that's kind of what Metcalf needs. So to your point,
you know, Mason Rudolph might be a boost for DK Metcalf,
and the opportunities have been there. I mean, Rogers missed
him wide open down the field last week, and I
do think that, like you said, Rudolph will lean on
the number one guy. It's not Calvin Austin, it's not
Roman Will. I mean it's DK Metcalf, Like he is
the alpha in this past the game, and if he

(15:29):
can just catch fire for a couple of games with
some of these favorable matchups coming up, the stretch. Then
I think that he's worth it because I really think
you can get it cheap. That's like the big thing
here too, because it's been three bad weeks in a row.
Aaron Rodgers gross, Steelers offense gross, So I think that
he can probably had at a very very good cost.

Speaker 1 (15:48):
Yeah, if you guys go back and watch the running
back episode we did, I think a couple of those
rbs you wanted to sell ericson, I think those would
be great targets to maybe move for DK Metcalf.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
So yeah, I'm very excited about that.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
And I think the injury to Rogers could be something
because I actually identified him as a rest of season
potential sleeper Rogers because I really liked how he was
playing the first half the season, and ever since that
game he has not looked the same. So yeah, maybe
a trip to the infirmary will be good for him,
and Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer can save Christmas once
again in the Steel City.

Speaker 2 (16:21):
Before we keep it moving.

Speaker 1 (16:22):
A real quick reminder that you can use the trade
analyzer at fantasypros dot com, slash my playbook, or on
the Fantasy Pros app to instantly evaluate how any trade
will affect your team for this week, the rest of
the season, or even in dynasty fantasy football leagues. Again,
that's fantasypros dot com slash my playbook to use the
trade analyzer or for free on the Fantasy Pros app

(16:45):
All right, let's keep it moving here. Ericson Oh the
good times they can't last. Specifically out there in the
City of Brotherly Love.

Speaker 3 (16:54):
Selling a J Brown. He was my cell a couple
of weeks ago before the Eagles went on there bye week. Yes,
and so this was before he said to drop him
on twitch and all that stuff. But I still feel
the same about AJ Brown, even after he had a
bit of a bounce back game here against the Detroit Lions.
Because if this was the Squeaky Wheel game where we

(17:14):
get double digit targets, he doesn't even surpass fifty receiving yards, right,
it's just kind of more inefficient route running or not
route running. But the inefficiencies from him this year have
been really eye opening. And I don't think that he
has like declined severely as a player, but just within
confines of this specific offense, like it's not the same
AJ Brown experience. He's averaging a career low in yards

(17:37):
per ut run this season. Yep, Davante Smith career high
in yards per route run this season. I would rather
have Davante Smith than a J. Brown rest of season,
like straight up, because Smith has been the more consistent
player in this offense this year. Yes, the Eagles do
have some favorable matchups rest of season, but a J.
Brown has bombed in good matchups this year.

Speaker 1 (17:56):
Like, there are also games ericson that they might not
have to throw a ton, they could just lean on
the run game.

Speaker 2 (18:02):
That's what I'm afraid of.

Speaker 3 (18:03):
That's the thing. It's less matchup dependent with AJI Brown
and more about well what are the Eagles deciding to
do on offense this week? Like that's really what stick
because we know J. Brown can beat any defense if
they decide to throw him the ball enough, right, So
I just have concerns about the bottom falling out in
certain matchups. So although a J. Brown can win you weeks,
we've seen him lose you more weeks than win you

(18:23):
more weeks this season and that's what concerns me. You
go on the fantasy playoffs, you're starting AJ Brown and
you could be left hold in the bag. So that
really concerns me with the Eagles wide receiver rest of season.
And the other thing is the Lane Johnson injury, Like
this is huge, good pint if Lane Johnson is going
to be out because we've seen the Eagles offense, specifically
the passing game regress immensely when he misses time. So

(18:45):
this is from next gen stats, So this is from
to the twenty twenty four season, so I'll just read it.
So the Eagles have struggle in the passing game without
Lane Johnson since Jalen Hurts became his starting quarterback in
twenty twenty one. The Eagles seven point eight yards per
tempt with Lane on the field, but ran second in
the league during that span. So this is to up
to twenty twenty four. However, they're six point seven marked
with Outlance, would be ninth lowest in the league. The

(19:05):
team's pressure rate jumps from thirteen lowest in the league
to the highest rate allowed without him in the lineup.
This it's just bad news all over the place for Philadelphia.
We've seen them in two back to back games not
play that well offensively. We know the offense is not
operating at one hundred percent. Offensive lines regressed a J

(19:26):
Brown's not heat feeling it. I just I just don't
want to I'm out.

Speaker 1 (19:29):
I'm outside, dude, That's all right, I will say. I
hope Fred Johnson he's Lane Johnson's backup. I think he
can be maybe suitable. But we've seen it with the Chargers,
We've seen it with these other offenses that when they
replace these star warth left and right tackles, it doesn't
always hold up right. And you know, so I'm with

(19:50):
you there and to your point of like hurting you
more than he's helped you. He has two wide receiver,
two finishes, two wide receiver, one finishes all of their
five games. He's outside the top twenty four this season. So,
I mean, he got the targets last week as you
mentioned as well, but it just didn't come to fruition.
And I think, like, honestly, like you have to zoom
out sometimes in fantasy football.

Speaker 2 (20:10):
What is AJ Brown on pace to do?

Speaker 1 (20:12):
Sixty seven receptions a career low eight hundred and sixteen
yards and only five touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (20:16):
That's what we're on pace for.

Speaker 1 (20:17):
Like sometimes you just have to go back take it
from a five hundred foot level. This is not the
AJ Brown we drafted, and I think someone based on
at least maybe the targets last week, would give you
maybe seventy five cents on the dollar, which I would
take at this point.

Speaker 3 (20:31):
You can get Metcalf. I'm pretty sure you could get
DK Metcalf. With AJ Brown, I like his lost something. Yeah,
And this isn't meant to bury AJ Brown because I
think that he's still a super talented player. And look, Seth,
he's gonna be fantastic wearing the Patriots blue and red
and white next year in twenty twenty six catching pass
from Drake May. I'm gonna be all over buying AJ
Brown low in twenty twenty six. But for twenty twenty five,

(20:54):
I am it is not AJB Wide Receiver one season.
I'm sorry, Like it usually always is AJB wide receiver
one season, not this year.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
I had a funny thought the other day.

Speaker 1 (21:04):
The Rams right now they control a top ten pick
because they have the Falcons pick, and they also have
their own pick. What if they moved that late first
round and they run out Kuka Adams and AJB like
something like that. I think I'd rather see him over
on the NFC side rather than the AFC, even though
I have so much Drake may and dynasty that that
would be great for me. I don't need another Juggernaut

(21:24):
Patriots team. I've already seen that for my entire life,
so I don't need any more dynasties up from your
your neck of the woods, Andrew, no thank you.

Speaker 3 (21:32):
Or the Rams decide to package all their picks and
just get Joe Burrow out of Cincinnati.

Speaker 2 (21:39):
I'd be okay with that. I would be okay with
that Borrow.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
They would win so many Super Bowls.

Speaker 2 (21:46):
That's for sure.

Speaker 1 (21:48):
Andrew, you also have another wide receiver you're selling, this
time coming in the Nation's capital.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
Deebo Samuel another player that I have mentioned as a
sell many times this year. He's coming off another game
where scored a touchdown, but the body of work the
last couple of games has not been elite, so he's
been outside the top forty five Fantasy Spider receivers in
three of his last five games. That's despite averaging over
six targets per game. Again, he had a twenty eight

(22:15):
yard catch late in the game against the Miami Dolphins.
If he doesn't have that catch, he would have finished
under fifty yards for the fourth time. In five weeks,
so the ceiling performance have not been there for Deebeo Samuel.
His yards after the catch has plummeted versus his career rate.
He's averaged on his career nine yards after the catch
per reception this year five point six. That's more than
three yards worse than his career average. So I don't

(22:38):
think that the sending groundbreaking analysis for me saying that
Deebo Samuel is not the same guy that he once was,
even though he's not like significantly old over players, just
he's dealt with a lot of injuries, and he was
even dealing with injuries this season, but we've seen him
fall off in the second half of seasons every single year,
it seems like. So the fact that the Commanders are
kind of facing what seems like a lost season, the

(22:59):
fact that Jane Dams we don't know when he's going
to come back, the fact that Terry McLaurin might come back,
and that's also going to influence the target chair for
Deebel Samuel. The Commanders also have the single worst schedule
for wide receivers after the bye week, So really, for me,
it's get whatever you can for deebout Samuel after a
game where he was productive yet again, like, I just
want to be rid of him in my roster. He's

(23:20):
not going to help you win your fantasy championships. So
I'd rather have like a high upside handcuff than Deebo Samuel,
because again going back to players are going to hurt
you more than help you unless you're playing in a
really deep format where you have to start four or
five like flexes or wide receivers. Sure Samuel is not
going to help you in a start two wide receiver
league because I don't feel like you're going to be Oh,
I got a flex debo this week. I don't feel

(23:41):
that way with the way that this season has gone
for him for the Commander's offense overall. So trying to
sell high off a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (23:48):
Game, yes, sell high off the TV game. Also, we
have speculative reports that JD. Honey could be returning at
quarterback here for Washington, So in case he doesn't, like
I would rather not be invest in and go down
with the ship, like that's kind of what you're doing
here right. Washington has been one of the worst teams
this season. It doesn't feel like it's getting any better.
And Deebo Samuel to your point how much touchdowns are

(24:10):
helping him. He is averaging nine point three Fantasy points
per game in PPR leagues in contests where he's not
finding the end zone, and that's like also bumped up
by his twenty two point one performance all the way
back in Week one. So like he's having the type
of games when he doesn't get into payder that could
kill you in the playoffs, and I don't want to
be a part of that if he isn't finding the

(24:31):
end zone, which chances are he probably won't because it's
just not a good team right now. Even if Jane
Daniels comes back, I don't have super high hopes. But Andrew,
that's gonna do it for us. On the wide receiver front,
we're gonna move to quarterbacks and tight ends where you're
focusing primarily on two signal callers, one to buy and
one to sell. Who are you looking to purchase this week?

Speaker 3 (24:51):
It's Lamar Jackson. This is the best buy that you
could make. I think, any move, any advice I give
him this year, this is the best really move to
Lamar Jackson because he's never been cheaper, hasn't been good
the last couple of weeks. How many points did he
score against the Browns? I had to like double take.
I think he scored like five points.

Speaker 2 (25:10):
Yeah, he was under seven for sure.

Speaker 3 (25:11):
I couldn't believe. I don't think. I don't think I've
ever seen Lamar Jackson score that few fantasy points.

Speaker 2 (25:16):
The most games of his career.

Speaker 1 (25:18):
Honestly, he looked terrible, but the wind in the weather
was pretty bad up there as well.

Speaker 3 (25:22):
It's it's totally over emphasized the weather in that game.
The fact that dude, the Browns. When the Browns played home, dude,
no win scores points on them. They play like than
eighty five Bears when they play at home, and they've
they have limited Lamar Jackson before, so this is nothing new.
They do each of the Bengals when the Bengals go
to Cleveland. It's it's the same thing. Don't take any okay,

(25:44):
this is exactly what the offense is gonna look like. No,
AFC North games are way different than every other game.
It's just very very bizarre. So I wanted to buy
Alow off of a really bad game. The fact that
he hasn't been elite since coming back from his injury
hasn't been running as much, but the scheduled rest of
the season for the Ravens is is salivating. It is
so good. Every matchup you pissed off, you're just, oh

(26:04):
my god, this guy's gonna score thirty five points this week.
It's can you can you read off the schedule set?

Speaker 2 (26:09):
I got right here?

Speaker 3 (26:10):
I mean it's poetic Justice Man.

Speaker 1 (26:11):
Five of six of his last matchups are plus matchups
the Jets, the Bengals, the Steelers, the Bengals again, your Patriots,
which I don't love in Green Bay. Those are the
only two that are like, not the best, But New
England's still been a very solid matchup for opposing signal
callers as well.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
Yeah, so I think that it's schedule's great. Lamar is
one of these players that he can score thirty five
points for you in a week. He can win you
your week. So when we're debating all week long, which
running back do I start? Which flex do I start?
If Lamar Jackson scores forty points for you, who cares
who's starting your flex? It's not gonna matter, Like that's

(26:48):
gonna win you your week. So again, going back to
you the bigger picture here, it's usually one, two or
three guys every week that decide whether you win or
lose your matchup. Everyone else kind of hits their median projection.
Some guys go a little bit above, some guys go
a little bit low. Lamar's a guy when he's firing,
you know, he can go in a really high rate
of scoring Fantasy points in winning your week. So I
want to buy Lamar Jackson because I think the manager

(27:09):
that hasn't right now is probably pretty frustrated. He's never
got turned around, but he's had bad matchups. I think
the schedule is great for him, and you can attain him.
You can attain an elite quarterback, which usually can't do
this time of year. So by Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 1 (27:22):
This is usually the time of year that I am
kind of almost looking to offload quarterbacks. And because usually
like I just need I need a flex play, I
need an RB two, I need something. And I've taken
this approach a couple of years in a row and
in a few of my bigger leagues. However, Lamar's schedule
is so good that it makes me want to go
buy him. The only caveat, and the question I have

(27:43):
for you is are you concerned at all? Ravens are
thirty first in the league in pass plays per game. Also,
Lamar right now on pace. You know, part of this
is because he's been injured, but also he's been injured
in the past. He's on pace for a career low
seventy eight carries four hundred fifty two rushing yards. Does
that worry you or do you think maybe, hey, that's

(28:05):
just kind of been part of the script.

Speaker 2 (28:06):
They're not running him as much this year.

Speaker 1 (28:07):
He's been banged up, and me we start to see
those legs work a little bit more with that glorious
matchups on the slate coming up.

Speaker 3 (28:15):
It definitely worries you, but it also worries the manager
that has him.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
So sure, yeah, you're.

Speaker 3 (28:20):
Basically just trying to make a bet that no, he's
gonna turn it on, He's gonna turn around, he's gonna
start running more, because the one game that he runs
more is game over, right, Yeah, Like, you know, you
have a guy who can score thirty points every single
week the rest of the way. So look, is Lamar
a guaranteed locke to start running again and perform at
a high level. No again, any guy coming off an injury.
We don't have all the injury data, but sure, going

(28:42):
back to talking about upside, Lamar Jackson's upside is he
could be the QB one. He could score more Fantasy
points than literally anyone else the rest of the season
based on this schedule and based on his skill set.
And when that guy with that profile is attainable, you
gotta shoot for it.

Speaker 1 (28:56):
Okay, all right, and Andrew, you have one more you'd
like to target this time though as a sell.

Speaker 3 (29:03):
Caleb Williams talked about this in the Running Back episode
about the Bears tough schedule rest of season. I think
there's a trickle down effect to that at the quarterback
position as well. Caleb Williams, a couple of weeks ago
looked like fantasy QB one destroyed the Giants, destroyed the Bengals.
But yes, Giants, Bengals, most quarterbacks are going to destroy
those teams the rest of the seasons. Schedule for the

(29:24):
Chicago Bears, Steelers, at the Eagles, at the Packers, Browns,
Packers again, and then at the forty nine Ers. I mean, like,
the only one that I'm feeling against Steelers is fine,
but like two road matchups against Philly and Green Bay
not good. Browns not good green Bay again again on
the road or playing it at home is a little
bit better. So again the playoffs isn't as bad. But

(29:47):
on the way up to the Fantasy football playoffs, I
feel like you're not gonna be able to rely on
Caleb Williams so for me if someone are going to
overpay for what he's been doing the last couple of weeks. Again,
so so against the Vikings. He was also a sell
for me last week too. I'm just concerned about a
lot of his Bears in general, just given that their
schedule is much tougher. They've won a lot of games
this season, and I mean their first place in the division,

(30:10):
which is kind of bonkers to think about, but they
haven't played Green Bay yet, so that concerns me about. Okay,
does Caleb regress a little bit here? Again, he has
that rushing cheat code, so he can kind he might
be able to salvage his way. But again that's why
I want to see if I get someone to overpay
for someone that wants to buy into the rushing, for example,
a quarterback that I would try to flip for Caleb

(30:30):
based on the rest of season schedule would actually be
Baker Mayfield because I think you can probably make that
deal kind of happen. Yeah, Baker is going to get
some of his guys back, potentially, his schedule is much
better rest of season. And we saw Baker even though
they lost last week. Baker what he was doing. He
was running again.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
That's okay, okay, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (30:47):
I love the rushing floor that Caleb Williams has added
this season and even late last year, and I think
you can sell on that. I think you sell on
the proms. Hey, look the Bears. They're leading the NFC
North right now. Fives are high out there in the
Windy City. My biggest concern though with Kayleb Williams is
one we even really touched on.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
It's the weather man.

Speaker 1 (31:05):
The weather up there in Chicago, like Cleveland, it gets brutal,
and the couple road games he has you point out Philadelphia,
I don't like that defense. It's gonna also probably get
pretty cold and nasty out there in Philadelphia, and then
Green Bay like you're going to Lambo. That is also
really bad weather this time of year. So I just
don't know if I want to be invested in a

(31:26):
Chicago Bears quarterback, even though they've been awesome this season,
but just with the weather and the matchups coming up,
I'm out.

Speaker 2 (31:33):
I'm out with you as well. So I really like
that call, Andrew.

Speaker 3 (31:36):
Yeah, I mean, if you can just hold them on
your bench till week seventeen at forty nine ers like that,
I mean, that might be all that matters. But again,
in one quarterback league, you're probably not gonna he can
get dropped. If he puts up a couple of stinkers
back to back, you scoop him up, save him for
Week seventeen. You're golden.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
Let's get out of here.

Speaker 1 (31:52):
On the mail bag, Andrew Rickson, and the first one
comes from Warrione on YouTube. Should I trade Puka Nikua
and Romeo Dobbs for just Jefferson and Javonte Williams in
a PPR league?

Speaker 2 (32:03):
What do you think? Man?

Speaker 3 (32:05):
Yeah, Puka is definitely the best part of the deal here,
So I don't usually like parting ways I agree with
that particular player. So that's kind of like my first
read on this. So unless I'm really hurting for running
back production, I would probably say no to this deal.
If it's Hey, I'm I got backup running backs I
don't have an RB one, then yeah, I think it's
worth it. Got me talked about Jefferson. We like him

(32:27):
as a by low. Still obviously want Puka because he
could be the wide receiver one rest of season, and
Javonte's no slatch. He's a fantasy RB one. So yeah, again,
if you really need running back help, I think this
is a fair trade.

Speaker 2 (32:37):
It is fair. I agree with you.

Speaker 1 (32:39):
I do think you're selling the best player in the trade,
right You're selling a top five guy rest of the season
for a player and Justin Jefferson that you would probably
like if we're redrafting to day, would Justin Jefferson and
Javonte still be like second round picks?

Speaker 2 (32:51):
Probably? Is that where you would probably take those guys?

Speaker 3 (32:52):
So yeah, they'd probably been in the second round.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
Yeah, yeah, So it's just kind of league dependant here
for you, Warrion. But yeah, I probably would prefer not
to do this trade, but if I need to, there
are you know, there are a lot of teams that
I'm struggling to fill a lineup.

Speaker 2 (33:04):
Every week that I might need to do this.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
Here's another one of these one for two types of trades.
This is coming from m J J MHJ. Marvin Harrison
Junior for MVP on Twitter.

Speaker 2 (33:15):
That did not age twelve is the stream name. I'll
tell you that much.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
Right now, would you be trading Jalen Waddell for Woody
Marx and Stefan Diggs Erickson.

Speaker 3 (33:23):
If you need wins now? Yes, because Waddle's on his
bye week right now. He's not going to help you now.
Dig still has to have his bye week. Patriots have
a late by week, so just keep that in mind.
But sure, look you need running back out. I think
Marks is fine. I don't know if he's going to
be a league winner, like maybe we thought he could
potentially be. Just think, I don't know if there can
be a league winner from the Texans backfield with how

(33:45):
bad his offensive line is so but he's fine as
a running back fill in and digs and that dude
look fantastic on Thursday and night cooking the Jets, and
he was coming off a career game in terms of
for season highs and snaps, routes run. He totally took.
He totally took over. As like Clearcut Alpha, Stefan Diggs
is here and Drake Mays' quarterback. So you're never gonna

(34:07):
get me to say, oh, I gotta get rid of Diggs.
So I think that this is a good move to make.

Speaker 1 (34:12):
Okay, Yeah, I'm there with you as well. Woody Marsh
has been, you know, kind of fun, kind of fun, right,
you know. I thought he would be a little bit
better last week. I apologized to anyone over on the
twitch side of things that I told to start him
over some some better off.

Speaker 3 (34:24):
He dude, he got the work, man, He just he
just didn't deliver.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (34:28):
I mean most of the Texans been outside Nico pretty
much last week, So.

Speaker 2 (34:32):
Last one before we get out of here.

Speaker 1 (34:33):
Ericson Dynasty question from Sunday Surefire on Twitter. My team
is a serious contender looking to win its Thursdake title.

Speaker 2 (34:41):
Congratulations. The only week spot is tight end?

Speaker 1 (34:44):
Would you trade what is likely to be a late
twenty twenty six second round pick for Travis Kelcey ericson
it has been a really nice stretch here from Travis
Kelcey fits pointed out last week, and it's only grown
that since Week five. Travis kelse currently are tight end
two week five through eleven, and even on the season, man,

(35:06):
he's a top five guy in points per game as well,
averaging just under fourteen points per game. So would you
move a late second rounder for one last ride with
Travis Kelcey potentially?

Speaker 3 (35:17):
Yeah, I think that that's fine. He's attached to Mahomes.
I don't know if the production will stay that high,
just because we've seen the splits with Rice and Kelsey
playing in the lineup together, and even even this last game,
right Rice is seeing all the targets in the first half,
Kelsey nowhere to be found. But the second half, Kelsey
gets all the targets. Rice is kind of a ghost.
So those guys eat into each other. But right now

(35:39):
it's really the Rice and Kelsey show. Like Worthy hasn't
really taken on a big role in the Chiefs offense,
and he always has a touchdown upside. So for a
late twenty twenty six second to go all in, especially
if you're hurting at tight end, it's like, what's what's
the alternative? Right? Like which tight end are you gonna
trade for? Like? Are you gonna go for Mark Andrews.
It's the same exact situation where he's touchdown or bust.
I think probably Kelsey has higher floor than Marcus does absolutely.

(36:03):
I guess like if you wanted to try to think
a little bit more long term, Kyle Pitts is kind
of an interesting target as well because London is out.
Yeah again, if you could do a late twenty twenty
six second round pick for Kyle Pitts, I would probably
rather do that in the Dynasty because then you actually
get sure you get him after this year too is
probably done. But yeah, if you're trying to win now,

(36:23):
Kelsey's an upgrade, pull the trigger well.

Speaker 1 (36:26):
And I think what's interesting is the Chiefs. I feel
like they need him now. Like before he was almost
kind of like just a luxury, especially the last few seasons.
But now they're sitting outside the AFC playoff picture.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
They gotta start winning games, man, And look.

Speaker 2 (36:40):
At the schedule.

Speaker 1 (36:41):
Indianapolis, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee, Denver took to
end the fantasy football season like those aren't I mean,
Tennessee give him a win there, but like outside of that,
they're gonna have to fight for all those other wins.

Speaker 2 (36:52):
Right Yeah, so yeah, it'll involved Andrew Erkson.

Speaker 1 (36:57):
What a pleasure filling in for Worm this week with
you on the train that is going to do it
for us on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football Podcast. Be sure to check out Part one for
ourb trade targets if you haven't already, and make sure
that you're also checking out our weekly trade live stream
for the YouTube audience, where you can come and ask
your specific fantasy trade questions. Joe Debro our great pals

(37:18):
over there, They're with you every Wednesday three pm Eastern Time.
For those listening on the podcast feed, just go to
YouTube dot com slash Fantasy pro subscribe and click the
bell to be notified for all our weekly live streams. Also,
as a reminder, this is our last trade show of
the season.

Speaker 2 (37:34):
We'll be off for thanksgiving them.

Speaker 1 (37:35):
Worm and Erickson back with you every Tuesday with a
predictions based show after the holiday. Until then for Andrew Erikson,
I'm seth.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
We take care. Y'all.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify. Follow
us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash
Fantasy Pros

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Ruthie's Table 4

Dateline NBC

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Week 12 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1852)