Will Your Favorite Player Make The Cut? The Top 75 Overall Fantasy Football Player Rankings (Ep. 1262)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I
am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and Pat
fitz Morris. The fellows are here helping me fight through
a cold, and we are here to talk about some
Fantasy football top seventy five overall rankings. We're gonna run
through all of them. I think it goes five or
six tiers and our expert consensus rankings. This is drawing

(00:21):
off the half PPR rankings, so everybody knows they can
go to fantasypros dot com slash rankings if you want
to kind of follow along. We're just look at them
yourself and see other names that we did in the highlight.
But all of our early twenty twenty four concerts as
rankings and tiers can be found there. Again, that's fantasypros
dot Com slash rankings. If it's how you doing today.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
I'm doing wellworm. Is it more help to your cold
for me to be here talking to you? Or would
you prefer that I fly out there and make you
chicken soup from scratch?

Speaker 1 (00:47):
I would not say, notice some chicken soup from scratch.
I'm a big tea drinker generally, so whenever I have
like a sore throat or something. I am kind of
already in the habit of making tea, but I don't
do enough soup. So that's I should. I should, really,
you know, work that into my to my meal prep
when I'm when I'm not feeling so hot. So if
that offer is a standing offer, I will take you

(01:07):
up on that, all right.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
I'll buy my plane tickets now and perfect.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
I'm sure the company will reimburse it. Just to get
me back on my feet. Deever, how you doing doing good? Man? Now?

Speaker 3 (01:17):
I feel like I just need to impart you know
the best wisdom I can right now. A Benadryl and
a shot of Grandma's cough syrup helps as far as decongested,
you know, and the side effects can also help as well, buddy.
So you know, if we got the sore throat, a
little bit of Bourbon's never a bad thing.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, it was gonna say it's Grandma's coughs. Here up
a euphemism for bourbon.

Speaker 3 (01:37):
I figured it always is.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
Okay, it better be.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
Smart woman, got to give it to her.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
That That's definitely what I've playing I got. I know,
I know we disagree deep rob more of a Scotch guy.
You're more bourbon, but I do like both both as brown.

Speaker 3 (01:51):
It goes down, bro, It's all good.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Yeah, same thing. We're we're just counting the days until
we can get a sponsorship that's an actual, like real
whiskey company and they can send it to us and oh,
we'll have to test it out so we can talk
about it on the show.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
You know what a join hit up Fantasy pros. His
guy's name is Jimmy. He loves all bourbon brands.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Yes, yes, do that, yes exactly. All right, that's enough
prem Well, let's dive in. Like I said, we're talking
our top seventy five overall player rankings. The master list
that I'll be working from is, like I said, that
half PPR Expert consensus rankings. Obviously, you guys are gonna
have some agreements and some disagreements with that main list.
So that's what we're going to go through the show
and sort of find out kind of round by a round,

(02:32):
about twelve players at a time. So let's start at
the very top one through twelve, just to let everybody
know what the rankings are in order. Christian McCaffrey, Ceedee
Lamb Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Breis hall, Amana,
Saint Brown, b Jean Robinson, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Pukanakua,
and Jonathan Taylor. I'm not gonna read this a second
time because that's a lot of names. So those are
the twelve that we're working from here in round one

(02:55):
as we stand here in mid May. Obviously this is
subject to change, but fits let's start with you. Which
player kind of stands out to you as maybe being
too high, too low, or you're not quite sure.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
So it's Jonathan Taylor. I want to talk about sneaking
into the end of the first round, and I find
it kind of interesting that he is ahead of Jamiir
Gibbs in the Expert Consensus rankings. It seems like in
ADP most of the time I see Gibbs ahead of
Jonathan Taylor. And maybe this changes to in full point
PPR rather than half point, where Gibbs might gain a

(03:24):
little bit of value over Taylor. I'm personally good with it, though,
I like I have Taylor ranked ahead of Gibbs and
half point PPR like and after the top five running
backs McCaffrey, B John Robinson, Breise Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Jumior Gibbs.
I do think the position gets pretty dicey in a hurry,
So I don't mind grabbing a running back if I'm
sitting on the turn. Starting with a guy like pukin

(03:46):
Aku or Devonte Adams plus one of those five running
backs not a bad way to start your draft. So
injuries cost Taylor seven games last year, six games in
twenty twenty two, but they were relatively minor injury. He's
not like chronic soft tissue injuries, no torn knee ligaments,
anything like that. And the last time we got a
full season from JT twenty twenty one, eighteen hundred rushing yards,

(04:11):
twenty touchdowns, more than twenty one hundred yards from scrimmage,
it was pretty glorious. Now Taylor is going to get
paired with Anthony Richardson, a dangerous rushing threat in his
own right. And I just keep thinking back to the
rookie year we saw from Robert Griffin, the third in
Washington in twenty twelve. I believe it was where he

(04:34):
had eight hundred and fifteen rushing yards and seven touchdown
runs in fifteen games and Washington's lead running back at
the time was Alfred Morris, a sixth round rookie with
four point six seven speed and in RG three's sensational
rookie year, Alfred Morris ran for sixteen hundred yards and
thirteen touchdowns. And the threat that he posed that RG

(04:59):
three pos on RPO's run pass option plays sent Alfred
Morris's rushing efficiency through the roof. And I am now
just getting like starry. I'd thinking of what it could
be like with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. I mean,
think about it. If you're a linebacker and you see
Anthony Richardson sticking the ball into Taylor's bread basket, but

(05:20):
you don't know whether he's actually handing off or if
he's going to pull the ball out and run, scoot
around end himself. That's definitely going to make those linebackers
hesitate and give Jonathan Taylor a split second extra to
get through a hole. So I can't wait to see
what this is going to look like this year. And
I think if we get a full season of good

(05:41):
health for Jonathan Taylor, no one is going to regret
taking him on the one two turn.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
You were right about that. The ADP you know, in
the rankings it's Taylor twelve and then Gibbs US thirteen.
He leads off our next round in ADP, it's switched
Gibbs his twelve overall and Taylor's thirteen. Yeah, that that
RG three season is always the one that's like such
a great comparison in terms of just seeing in action
the extra efficiency you're going to get from the running backs.

(06:09):
I was interning for a sports radio station in DC
that season, and I mean it was just like we
talked about it every day essentially, we had we had
a it was an afternoon show and it was RG
three o'clock every afternoon, as we would always talk about RG.

Speaker 2 (06:22):
I mean, such a fun offense to watch that year.
I mean, like it really was washing TV.

Speaker 1 (06:28):
It was a surprise and it was exciting and it
was fun. It was unique. It was really really cool experience.
I always, I mean basically ever since then, every time
we talk about a running back with a mobile quarterback.
The question that I always feel like I'm asking, and
I'll ask it again here because it's a new scenario
of different offense than some of the other ones we've
asked about it before, is are you more excited about

(06:48):
kind of the added efficiency you would expect from Taylor,
or you know, more pessimistic about the fact that Richardson
will likely take a lot of those rushing touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (06:56):
Yeah, some rushing touchdowns. Like I don't think JT is
duplicating the twenty touchdowns he had in twenty twenty one
for the added rushing efficiency. I mean, Alfred Morris thirteen
touchdowns in twenty twelve. If we get thirteen touchdowns from
Jonathan Taylor along with like two thousand yards from scrimmage,
I think everyone will be fine with whatever touchdowns Richardson

(07:18):
poaches from JT.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
Jonathan Taylor, t bro, what are you kind of evaluating
him this season? I mean, this is somebody who just
like two years ago was going in the first round
of super flex startup dieay Sea drafts. I mean, he
was like the one running back that everybody was trying
to get a part of. I mean, has it just
been injuries the last couple years? Is there any reason
to think that he's twenty five now?

Speaker 2 (07:38):
Like?

Speaker 1 (07:39):
Are you shying wed All? Are you pretty happy to
invest in Taylor as well?

Speaker 3 (07:42):
I'm handholding with Pat here, so I'm with on JT.
Like I've got JT as my twelfth overall player. I
have him above Jamiir Gibbs. He is my RB five
and ranks. It's only him and Saquon Barkley alone by
themselves in Tier two. And so I'm not worried about
Anthony Richardson poaching touchdowns. I'm not worried about, you know,

(08:04):
Anthony Richardson taking off. And there's not gonna be a
lot of pass game volume. If JT runs like we
think he's already done previously in his career and he
does that again this year, the touchdowns and the rushing
volume alone will be enough to carry him to a
high end RB one season alone. And we haven't even
talked about the context of the offense, like this is

(08:26):
not going to be a top ten passing rate offense.
And we can also marry that what we saw down
the back half of the season, they are going to
run at a fast pace. So if we're talking about
there's gonna be a lot of play volume, it's not
all getting funneled to the passing game. Then it's gonna
have to go to the run game. So JT is
gonna eat. I'm not backing off of that because come on, guys,

(08:48):
like we've seen year after year after year, injuries are fluky.
Injuries can happen or maybe they don't happen. So I'm
not willing to label anybody as being, oh, they're injury prone,
because that's the most divisive thing, and where there's uncertainty,
I'm just gonna dive in because if JT stays healthy,
yeah he's locked in. He's a high end RB one.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
I'm glad he mentioned the faster pace too. I didn't
even mention that that the Shane Steike and dividend mm hmm.

Speaker 1 (09:15):
I think ranking him around you know, twelfth or so
is fair in terms of how you line it up.
I think I'll be considering drafting him as high as nine.
To me, personally, there's kind of a really clear top
eight which lines up maybe in a different order, but
it lines up with the top eight and consensus. Once
you get to nine, like, I feel like you could
pretty easily justify depending on how you want to build
your team and who you expect to get in the
second round, you could justify Taylor ahead of Pooka, ahead

(09:38):
of Garrett Wilson, ahead of AJ Brown even like I
think you could really make a case for him as
high as nine, because again, if he's healthy, like he's
going to pay dividends, there's almost no eight.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
You're saying, just to be clear, behind cmc B, Jean
Breis Hall, and then the top four receivers Ceedee Lamb,
Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
And then a manra is kind of the one, the one,
the eighth guy in that group. And I actually I
would hear the argument for Taylor above a Mona. I
would prefer the Sun guy. But but yeah, that would
be the eighties. Those three running backs. I'm not putting
anybody ahead of them at the position, and then obviously
the elite receivers. But after that, I'm really happy if
I'm in the back half of the first round, picky
nine or ten, I think I'm gonna take a lot

(10:18):
of Jonathan Taylor.

Speaker 3 (10:19):
I think one guy We're not gonna talk too much
about it in this spot. I think Saquon Barkley is
also in that same conversation. I think that with him
and JT, depending on how what you think of that offense,
he's in that same type of conversation where he should
get all the freaking work. Yes, there is worries about
the rushing quarterback, but again drawing the parallels, they're gonna

(10:41):
run at a high pace and stuff. We're gonna see
a good offense with Kellen Moore at the controls. I
think Barkley and JT for me are hand holding and
both of them you can the conversation starts for them
in ninth.

Speaker 1 (10:52):
Overall fits mentioned kind of like when you're actually picking
in the back of the first round. I think if
I'm picking twelfth in leagues, I will be doing a
lot of double being at running back, some combination of
Taylor gibbson Barkley, I think I'll be doing a lot
of Again, it's early that philosophy could change. Uh de
ro which player did you want to talk about here
in this top twelve?

Speaker 3 (11:10):
It's got to be Pooka and Akua Man. I mean
we're talking about a guy that came out of nowhere. Well,
I mean, for me, this comes down to people are
going to talk about because you know it's gonna get
talked about with Cooper Cup and how many players can
Matthew Stafford support because this is what we do every
single year. People did it all last season, So they're
going to do it again this year and they're gonna
talk about, well, Cup is fully healthy, what does it

(11:31):
look like for Pooka? And I don't have a problem
with it at all. Man, Like, I'm willing to draft
Pooka right now. I have him at ninth overall right now,
and I'm willing to take him there every single time
in drafts. And I just talked about the conversation starting
for JT. There's also a very really good conversation for
Puka deserves to be inside of the top ten as

(11:52):
a first round lock with upside because in the twelve
games we saw him and Cup on the field together
last year, he outproduced Cup in every single metric, target share,
air yard, cheer, yards per route, run, ends on targets,
fantasy points per game. In those twelve games, Pukaakua was
the wide receiver twelve and fantasy points per game as

(12:13):
a freaking rookie. Ban So now we're talking about he's
being drafted inside the first round, where people have him
in their wide receiver ranks is totally up for debate
right now. He is my wide receiver six. I think
he has top three upside this year. He was the
wide receiver twelve when both these guys were on the
field last year. And if we see a better offense

(12:33):
for the Rams throughout the totality of this season, the
offensive line is good, Stafford stays healthy the entire year,
and I know that's a big if, but also marroring this,
it's also another year of age for Cooper Cup. So
if he comes back in the divide, last year, he
was the wide receiver twelve and Cup was the wide
receiver twenty three in that stretch. If that divide gets

(12:54):
a little bit wider, guys, if it does, Pooka goes
from being a low end wide receiver one to a
high end wide receiver one. And we've seen Stafford can
support all of those guys like this offense is gonna
be good. So I'm willing to sit here and make
the bet on Pooka yet again this year that he
can not only pay off on his ADP, but there

(13:16):
is ceiling to be had here too.

Speaker 1 (13:18):
If you're willing to say that he has wide receiver
three upside, couldn't you just say his wide receiver one upside?
Because those elite guys are all so good that if
you're in that top three, there's no reason you can't
be one, right, No, or do.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
You think there's actually bencap Then it comes down well,
so then it comes down to, Okay, if I think
that he can get the volume and be productive enough
to be top three, then some of that just comes
down to touchdown volatility. Yeah, can he get the touchdown
bump to get him past other guys in that? That's
really all what it comes down to. It's like, if
you have the volume ceiling to get to in your

(13:51):
range to get to the top five, getting over that
humped from wide receiver five to wide receiver one overall
just comes down to you need a little bit more
of the volume to go your way, not much, and
you really just need the touchdowns to massify swing your way,
which can happen.

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(14:52):
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Let's move to round two here thirteen to twenty four,

(15:13):
and in order, those guys are Jamier Gibbs, Saquon Barkley,
Brandon Ayuk, Marvin Harrison, Junior, DeVante Adams, Kyrin Williams, Chris Olave,
Josh Allen Traves, Ytn Drake London, Mike Evans, and Derek Henry.
Deebro will start with you this time. Who are you
highlighting here?

Speaker 3 (15:28):
I'm not fricking disrespecting Derrick Henry this year, not doing
It's not gonna happen. Man. He's twenty fourth overall right
now in my rankings. I have him as the RB
what is he the RB seven? And I've got him
as my fifteenth overall player and I'm willing to draft
him there every single time. And some dudes are just

(15:50):
built different. Derrick Henry is. He's shown us this year
after year after year after year after year, and I'm
not betting against that, especially now in Baltimore. Last year,
Derrick Henry no falloff amongst sixty eight qualifying running backs,
eleventh in yards after contact per attempt, sixteenth the miss
tackles force per attempt. And now he goes to the
Baltimore Ravens that were fifth in red zone rushing plays

(16:15):
per game last year. You have Derrick Henry. You're not
going to be slamming Lamar into the offensive line inside
the five, that's going to be Derrick Henry time. Every
single freaking time. He can have fifteen plus rushing touchdowns
this year. I talked about this on previous shows. Already
bet the over at plus money when it was ten

(16:35):
and a half. Derrick Henry is spiking double digit touchdowns
this year. I would say the median line for him
probably needs to be set over under twelve and he's
gonna just crush. So this ranking of Derrick Henry like
barely scraping into the top twenty four, I'm drafting him

(16:56):
above that every single time in drafts.

Speaker 1 (16:59):
I genuinely don't see a path if he stays healthy
to having under a dozen touchdowns, Like, I just don't
see how it happens if he's healthy, and quite frankly,
I think that number is low. Like I'm right there
with you. I would expect even closer to fifteen, which
sounds crazy, But again, I feel like I've talked about
this on a lot of shows. Also, I guess with
you d ro just that like they don't want to

(17:21):
run Lamar in close, they would prefer to run the
running back. We just saw it with Gus Edwards last year.
And now you're upgrading on that spot. Like you said,
a lot of the metrics show that, you know, maybe
he's not like truly truly prime Derek Henry, but he's not.
He wasn't far off last year.

Speaker 3 (17:34):
You an elite tackle breaker, like we could quibble about it.
Maybe he's not top three, top five, and some of
these metrics, he's still top sixteen and almost everything you
look at.

Speaker 1 (17:43):
And I know that there's question marks about the Baltimore
offensive line, but a they are really good historically at
kind of finding those surprise guys that you wouldn't have
expected to. Like, you know, they draft guys a couple
of years in advance to develop and then all of
a sudden they're good starters. Maybe that will happen, maybe
it won't. But he also has proven he can run
well behind a poor offensive line in Tennessee. So I'm
really not worried about what the Baltimore O line looks like.

(18:06):
I'm I'm really excited about Henry. I'm right there with
you interestingly, and Fitz, I do want to get your
opinion on this because our staff rankings are of you know,
YouTube plus Erickson and Joe deebro and Joe have him
fifteenth and sixteenth overall, fits and Ericson have him forty
seventh and forty eighth overall. So there is a wide
middle ground here between where kind of each duo has

(18:28):
him ranked fits fits. Well, I mean, what did Debro
and I need to do to convince you, Fitz, come on.

Speaker 2 (18:36):
Fit, I don't think you're ever gonna convince me to
draft a thirty year old running back in the top
two rounds. Ever, I don't care if it's like, you know, uh,
Jim Brown coming back to play, and you know, like
it's just first of all, by the way, if you
guys are setting the over under on touchdowns that Lamar

(18:57):
Jackson scores rushing from inside the five at zero point five,
I'll happily bet the over on that. And I think
it's going to be more than just one. Also, like
Henry is not getting all of those touchdowns. The thing
about Henry, yes, the age, he's thirty, and he has
led the NFL in rushing attempts in either I think

(19:17):
it's three of the last four years or maybe four
of the last five, like high mileage older back, And
I like I've made this case against Derrick Henry sort
of before, and I've just routinely been burned on it.
I guess I don't want to reverse my position now
that he's crossed that age thirty threshold. The other thing, like,
he's not going to be a prolific pass catcher in

(19:39):
this offense. We know that Derek Henry never has been
in his career, and Lamar is not a prolific checkdown guy,
So that kind of shuts off one possible path to
fantasy value. He's got to do it all on the ground,
and I think to justify top two round draft capital,
he's going to have to get you like fifteen hundred

(19:59):
rush yards and double digit rushing touchdowns. He could do it.
I mean, he's a great running back, no question if
he's totally healthy, But you know, do we start to
see him creep towards that age Cliff does this offense
like work quite as effectively as you guys are envisioning, which,
as you mentioned, worm like maybe a few more questions

(20:20):
about this offensive line than there used to be. So
I just I can't get on board with taking Henry
in the first two rounds.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
Well, Well, if it's one thing I would ask is
like you know one of your one of not the only,
but one of the reasons you like Jonathan Taylor is
you know that he's paired with a mobile quarterback. You
don't think that will help open up Like the Ravens
have never had a bad rushing attack in the Lamar
Jackson era, even when their offensive line has been less
than elite. It's hard for me to imagine that the
threat of Lamar and Lamar has dropped a lot of

(20:51):
weight and theoretically is gonna be even faster this year
than he has in the last couple of years. He's
he's the thinnest he's been since that twenty nineteen season.
It's really hard for me to imagine a scenario where
this isn't a quality rushing attack and they don't really
have a great depth chart behind Henry.

Speaker 3 (21:07):
Yeah, you're right to ear. I'm grinning ear to ear here,
and I don't need to cut you off ittsy because
worm is attempting to use your JT love against you
right now.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
Yes, I mean, you realize what's going on here, right
This is uh taekwondo using my own offensive moves against me.

Speaker 3 (21:25):
Man.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
No, it's a good point. I mean, like I think
this could spike the efficiency of Derrick Henry for sure.
So and like we don't know what the volume is
going to look like, but presumably if he does stay
healthy for all seventeen games, like he's going to be
once again, if not the leader in rushing attempts in
the NFL, like top three, top five, there's that case

(21:48):
for sure. I just it's the age thing. Man. I
just can't put that sort of investment into a thirty
year old running back.

Speaker 1 (21:58):
I get it. I just think that he's just has
been an outlier for a lot of his career, and
I'm willing to continue. You know, philosophically I agree with you,
but outliers, I tend to give a little more benefit
of the doubt. At the end of the day, I
actually like, I don't I wouldn't take him as high
as fifteen, where Debro has him, but I certainly would
take him well before the late forties, Like I think
I would have him somewhere in the middle, definitely closer

(22:19):
to Debro like he would be in the twenties, like
somebody i'd be really interested in in the back half
of the second round, depending Like if I got a
wide receiver in the first round. There's no way I'm
letting him get to the end of round four that
just you know, would not happen for me.

Speaker 3 (22:33):
Well, to Fitzi's point, right now, in current best balls
on underdog, Derrek Henry is at thirty one point seven.
So the market's kind of shading in the middle of
kind of what we're where we're both at.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
And I think that, like I'll try and play into that,
and like I won't take him maybe in the back
of the second round because I'll be pretty confident I
can get him in the third round instead and kind
of try and game that. But I you know, like
I said, I'm very excited about him. It's the player
that you highlighted in this round. I was expecting this
would be another opportunity for you to gush about Marvin
Harrison Junior and why as a rookie we should still

(23:06):
be so excited about him. Instead you it in a
different direction.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
Yeah, it's Josh Allen I want to talk about because
I'm actually more aggrieved by the premise of Josh Allen
being a second round pick than I am of Derrick
Henry being a second round pick. Like I'd rather have
Derick Henry in the second than Josh Allen. And I'll
start this conversation about Josh Allen with a point about
Patrick Mahomes. All right, so this is how many Fantasy
points per games Patrick Mahomes averaged yearly over his first

(23:33):
five years as a starter, twenty six point one, twenty
point nine, twenty five point four, twenty two point zero,
twenty five point two. Then last year, Mahomes averaged eighteen
point four Fantasy points per game. He ranked twelfth in
that category. Why the dip because the Chiefs had one
of the worst wide receiver situations in the league. I mean, yes,

(23:55):
Rashid Rice had a good season, but it was all
like manufactured catch and run stuff. Rashid Rice had under
five hundred air yards last year, Like Patrick Mahomes had
no one from among his wide receivers who could make
plays downfield for him consistently. So shouldn't we be at
least slightly concerned that a lack of firepower at wide

(24:16):
receiver could cut into Josh Allen's passing productivity this year?
Like he just lost Stefan Diggs, who averaged one hundred
and eleven catches thirteen hundred and forty three receiving yards
and nine point three touchdowns in his four years in Buffalo.
And he also lost Gabe Davis, who, granted not a star,
but like a dangerous vertical threat for Josh Allen made

(24:38):
a lot of big plays over the last few years.
The thing is, I like some of the Bills pass catchers.
You guys know, I'm a keyon Coleman fan, But I
think he's going to be good. I don't know how
long it's going to take, and I don't know that
we can count on a thousand yard season from a
rookie who didn't even have an eight hundred yard receiving
season in his three years in cop I like Shakir

(25:02):
Khalil Shakir really like his game, but is he ready
to be an impact guy? Like a high volume guy?
I don't know, like Curtis Samuel useful, He's only top
seven hundred receiving yards once in his career. And like
I like Dalton Kinkaid, definite draft target for me this
year because of all the uncertainty a wide receiver. But
like Dalton kin Kaid's not gonna have one hundred catches.

(25:25):
So the cupboards aren't completely bare here, But we should
probably acknowledge the distinct possibility that this turns out to
be a bottom ten group of pass catchers. And I
don't want this to seem like I'm jumping on dumping
on Josh Allen because I think he is awesome, and
you know, I don't want the Bills mafia power bombing

(25:46):
me through a table. Allen has been the QB one
and in three of the last four years. In the
one year he didn't finish QB one, he finished QB two.
I just think like, even though he's rushing ability and
he's certainly a more prolific runner than Patrick Mahomes gives
him an elevated floor. I don't know if he's got

(26:07):
the ceiling with these questions about his pass catchers. And
if you're gonna be drafting a quarterback in round two,
you need a lot more than a save floor. You
need twenty five points a game from him, and I'm
not sure we're getting twenty five points a game from
Josh Allen this year. And frankly, I don't know if

(26:27):
even twenty five points a game justifies drafting a quarterback
in round two.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
So you kind of alluded to it there right at
the end. Are you saying that Josh Allen would not
be your QB one, or you're saying, regardless of who
your QB one is, you're not taking them in the
middle of the second round.

Speaker 2 (26:43):
In fact, he is not my QB one this year,
where it's Patrick Mahomes who now has pass catchers galore.
So we're gonna see Patrick Mahomes once again put up
twenty five points a game I think this year.

Speaker 1 (26:57):
And for Patrick Mahomes, would you take him not in taking?

Speaker 3 (27:01):
No?

Speaker 1 (27:03):
Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Deebra, How are you kind
of approaching the top quarterbacks this year?

Speaker 3 (27:08):
I'm not taking any freaking quarterback in the second round.
I'm not doing it. So and and honestly, the market
is agreeing with us versus our ECR. So the market
right now, like if you're looking at underdog, I mean
Josh Allen's going off as the QB one. The market
is also saying we're not touching quarterbacks until round three.

(27:28):
He's going off the earliest off the board at thirty
three overall. And that's about where I have my QB one,
which I have Jalen Hurts as my QB one. But
I have Hurts is at thirty first overall, and I
just I'm it's hard. It's a hard conversation for me
to to rank Josh Allen as QB one, much less

(27:49):
for me to even convince myself, even if I had
him as my QB one, to draft him in round
two because Josh Allen's profile from last year is kind
of littered with questions and worries, like if you look
at the volume stats, yeah, they stayed pretty pretty similar.
His touchdown rate passing touchdown rate dropped from six point

(28:10):
two to five point zero percent. That was over the
last four years of his career. That is the lowest
touchdown passing touchdown rate. And people could say the sunny
side for that is you could say, oh, well he'll
bounce back. Sure, you could say that, but then you
look at his wide receiver weapons that fits all laid out,
and you're like, well, I don't know if that happens,

(28:32):
and it's like, well, then how did Josh Allen? Because
Josh Allen consistently over the last three years was a
thirty five plus passing touchdown guy yearly thirty five, thirty six,
thirty seven, last year only twenty nine, and the only
way that he compensated with that as well as his
rushing volume drop guys, he was consistently like six sixty

(28:54):
or seven sixty as far as rushing yards. That dropped
off a table to five hundred and twenty four. And
it's like, well, then, how the heck did he make
up all of this fantasy production and still in with
the because his freaking rushing touchdowns went from seven to fifteen.
So if that doesn't happen this year, and the passing
touchdowns stay about where they are, the rushing touchdowns stay
about where they are, and some of the touchdowns go

(29:16):
to the running backs, which it could happen. I mean,
Josh Allen in the previous three seasons seven six, eight
rushing touchdowns, if he doesn't spike it, If those passing
numbers lean over even to this year and he reproduces
what he did last year and the rushing touchdowns don't
go along and he doesn't spike it in the end

(29:37):
zone ten to twelve to maybe fifteen freaking times, Josh
Allen's not scoring like he did last year. I'm sorry,
Bill's Mafia, but it's true.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
The Fantasy pros Championship is back for twenty twenty four
and is already live for the upcoming season. We're partnering
with the FFPC again to bring to the world's largest
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total prizes and one million to first place. Head over
to Fantasypros dot com slash FFPC for all the contest
information and to sign up today. Make sure you use

(30:08):
promo code Fantasy Pros on sign up for twenty five
dollars off your first entry. That's Fantasypros dot com slash
FFPC promo code Fantasy Pros for twenty five dollars off.
Let's go to round three here from twenty five to
thirty six in order. Deebo, Samuel Sam Laporta, Jalen Hurtz,
Travis Kelce, Michael Pittman, Junior, DJ Moore, Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes,

(30:30):
Lamar Jackson, Nicocollins, Isaiah Pacheco, and Rashad White Fits Who
are you looking at here?

Speaker 2 (30:37):
I just think the ADPs for all the Texans wide
receivers are too high. We've got Nico Collins with the
third round ADP, Stefan Diggs with a fourth round ADP,
Tank Dell with a fifth round ADP. I feel like,
for all of these guys who provide satisfying returns on
investment at those ADPs, CJ. Stroud would have to throw

(30:58):
for like seven thousand yards and sixty eight touchdowns, all right,
maybe exaggeration, but like, even with a good season from CJ. Strout,
I think that we are going to find that at
least one of these guys, if not all three, are overpriced.
And I don't know who's gonna be the number one
receiver in Houston, like Nico is priced that way right now.

(31:19):
But I mean, Stefan Diggs did average one hundred and
eleven receptions over the last four years, and I know
he kind of collapsed down the stretch last year, just
one touchdown over his last ten games, forty two point
two receiving yards per game over that stretch. But I
just can't even consider taking Nico Collins in round three
when the Texans just traded for a guy who has

(31:41):
been like the walking definition of a number one, go
to alpha receiver for the last four years.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
Yeah, I would rather have Digs in the fourth than
Nico in the third. And I think there's a case
to be made that Digs should be ranked ahead of Nico.
There was an offensive coordinator change in Buffalo like that,
I don't think it's nothing in terms of seeing Diggs
kind of fall off there, And I don't think Houston
makes this trade and you know, is willing to get

(32:10):
rid of all the years in the contract, just kind
of going in for this season and is not going
to use Digs a ton, And Diggs is still really talented.
So like I I probably, like if you ask me today,
I think I'm probably would prefer Collins over Diggs. I
just like Digs better at the value. But I think
there's a real chance that three months from now, as
I marinate on it more than I'm sitting there saying

(32:32):
we're overreacting to a bad second half of the season
last year, and Diggs is looking pretty underrated. I know
he's a terp, so maybe I'm a little biased, But
do you could you see yourself ranking him ahead of
Collins at some point?

Speaker 2 (32:45):
Fits Diggs? Yeah, I mean like I've got him adjacent
to each other, I believe. And I love Nico. I
mean I love his game. I love how he just
plays bully ball with guys both at the catch point
and after the catch, like he is a load for
defensive backs to deal with. But man, it's just the
target competition. And let's not forget about Deebro's guy, Tank,

(33:08):
like Tank is a playmaker. So man, it's just a
lot of a lot of targets to be spread around
to three talented wide receivers. I just can't take Nico
as a top twenty wide receiver right now.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
Yeah, Debro not too long in this, but just Howard
do you kind of see this receiving course shaking out
between those three guys.

Speaker 3 (33:29):
The same conversation we're having about Nico Collins and Houston
is gonna just I mean, we're gonna cut and paste
this to the the guy that I'm about to bring
up here in a second. But I'm with you on that,
like Nico Collins should not be drafted. I've got him
at forty first overall. So he's kind of slowly like
he's he's leading the way on these guys, but there
is not a big divide between him, Stefan Diggs and

(33:51):
Tank Dell. And you're telling me at cost, who do
I want out of this room? It's not Nico Collins.
It's really Tank Dell and people, if you want to
go check my timeline, go look at it on Twitter.
I put this out weeks ago before. And it's funny
because I put this out right before Stefan Digs got traded.
Think was the day before he got traded to Houston.

(34:11):
Was that when Nico and Tank were on the field
together playing full time roles, Tank Dell was actually Houston's
wide receiver one. He bested Nico in multiple spots target
share included, and so it's like Nico was really great,
but the entire wide receiver corps falling apart around him
towards the end of the season where he was just

(34:33):
the unquestioned alpha, is also helping how people are viewing
him walking into this season. And that's just going to
piggyback right onto. I can't draft Dj Moore where he's going,
like the fact that he is going right now as
thirtieth overall player in my ranks. I've got Dj Moore
in the forties. I just it's the same exact conversation

(34:55):
for Houston in Chicago. It's like, one of these guys
is going to be a really stinking good value on
both of these teams. And it comes back to how
how much can either one of these quarterbacks support. Can
c J Stroud really pull a Payton Manning and all
three of these guys get a thousand receiving yards? Are
we gonna ask that out of a freaking rookie and

(35:16):
Caleb Williams? So it's like, how do we firmly believe
that DJ Moore is going to pay off at that
price tag? Which right now where he's at an ECR,
it's he volumed his way to what he did last year.
It was all volume, his twelfth in target chair. He's
freaking fifth in air yard share amongst all wide receivers.

(35:36):
And you could say, well, maybe Chicago throws the ball
more this year, that's fine, But Keenan Allen is not
a guy that's ready to be put out the freaking
past year. He was second and first read share last year,
eleventh and first downs per route run. He is not dust,
he's not old, he's not terrible, and he can command targets.

(35:57):
So it's like, how are we so sure that DJ
Moore doesn't take a more significant hit in his value,
not only for just Keenan Allen, but freaking roll of
doonsa who is studeley in his.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
Own right, I've talked a lot this offseason about how
historically it is difficult for receivers to have really good
fantasy seasons with rookie quarterbacks. Again, and I've said this before,
It's not impossible, but it is not easy. So I
think it's a, you know, a reasonable concern. I do
feel like considering that Rome is a rookie, a rookie
I like very much, but is a rookie, and Keenan

(36:32):
Allen isn't always healthy and is another year older, you know,
in its first year in Chicago, like more, is still
the guy I want most by a decent amount in
that Chicago receiving corp. If you want to say that
thirtieth is still too high, I think that's reasonable. But
he's still to me, the clear ride receiver to target
in that offense. What do you think fits uh?

Speaker 2 (36:53):
Same here? I mean, I would bet on Dj Moore
leading the Bears in receptions, receiving yards, touch on catches.
But you know, Deebro makes a great point. And the
funny thing is, like early in Dj Moore's career in Carolina,
he had some major quarterback issues playing with guys like
Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen still produced big numbers, like putting

(37:15):
up eleven hundred yard seasons with those guys, and now
this might be the best quarterback he's ever played with
in Caleb Williams, And like, this is kind of the
most concerned I've ever been about DJ Moore, just because
the target competition is going to be so severe it
is hard to imagine. Like, I don't think we're expecting
a five thousand yard passing season from Caleb as a rookie,

(37:36):
so man like, with these targets and receiving yards chopped
up this many ways, Like it's hard to see DJ
Moore getting much over eleven hundred yards if he even
gets to that. So as much as I like him
and as awesome as I think he is, like, I
think concerns about his volume are very valid.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
By the way, my big takeaway from the Texans part
of this conversation is, uh, I'm gonna be drafting a
lot of Stroud, Like I'd rather not try and parse
between which receiver it's gonna be.

Speaker 3 (38:05):
Let me just bet as soon as they made that trade, worm,
I went out and I went to draft Kings, and
I bet his MVP futures immediately because I'm like, if
he does what he should do and Houston wins the
South and they're like a eleven and twelve win team
and c J. Stroud's going to be in the MVP conversation.

Speaker 1 (38:22):
I love the news comes out. Go bet somebody for
MVP before the odds can adjust. I did it with
Lamar last year. I was just stupid enough to tie
it to the Ravens also winning the Super Bowl, so
it didn't pay off, but I did. Uh yeah, so close. Yeah,
all right, let's go to the next round here at
thirty seven, Jalen Wattle, then Devon h Chan, DK Metcalf,

(38:45):
Stefon Diggs, DeVante Smith, Joe Mixon, Cooper Cup, James Cook, CJ. Stroud,
Amari Cooper, Kenneth Walker, and Malik Neighbors fits. Who are
you highlighting here?

Speaker 2 (38:55):
Kenneth Walker? And I really like this price on Kenneth
Walker the third and I think I'm going to wind
up having him in a lot of leagues this year.
It just it seems like people are worried about Zach
Sharbonay being this existential threat to Kenneth Walker's workload. But
Walker averaged sixteen point five touches a game last year,
which was basically twice as many as Charbonay, and I

(39:18):
don't see why that would change this year. Meanwhile, there
are other running backs going ahead of Walker who might
be sharing touches. Devon Chen who almost certainly will be
Kyron Williams, who now has Blake carm around and might
have to seed some of his workload. Jamier Gibbs, who
of course is going to give up early down stuff

(39:38):
to David Montgomery. When Walker came into the league two
years ago, there were some people who liked him as
much as Breise Hall. I mean, he was fast, he
was athletic. Yeah, Debro exactly put up huge numbers at
Michigan State in his final college season, and I don't
think Walker has really done anything to disappoint us yet.

(40:00):
He has missed a couple of games in each of
his first two NFL seasons, which is sort of held
down his overall numbers. And maybe that's sort of like
a little bit of a mirage that's throwing off drafters,
But like, this guy's averaged a smidge under eighty scrimmage
yards a game over his first two seasons and has
scored nine touchdowns in each of his first two seasons.
And oh, by the way, the sexy selling point for

(40:21):
Kenneth Walker is that no running back in the NFL
has forced more miss tackles over the last two years
than Kenneth Walker. So like, I think this is a
guy who's got big time upside and who it would
not shock me if we were talking about as a
consensus first round or a year from now.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
Deebro, what do you think of Walker and specifically how
he might fit into the offense you know, run by
Brian Grubb, who is you know, obviously coming from Washington.

Speaker 3 (40:51):
I think this offense is one of many that that
I feel like could be one of the skeleton keys
to this fantasy season in what they look like. There's
a lot of parallels and looking at all the Washington
stuff of does Seattle, because how are we gonna parse
this out? You have a defensive minded head coach. Are
they gonna be run heavy? You have an OC that

(41:14):
comes from a heck, Washington was like, We're gonna grip
it and rip it and chuck it down the freaking field.
So it's like, are they gonna be run heavy? Are
they gonna be pass heavy? Are they gonna be a
mix of the two. What does that look like. It's
just one of those teams where I feel like we're
gonna mind value out of this because nobody's talking about Seattle.
I love fits his points because Kenneth Walker has done

(41:34):
nothing outside of like get dinged up and be injured.
That's depressed his value in some of his stats. If
he would have stayed healthy over the last two years,
he'd be talking about Kenneth Walker in a totally different light.
And there's no shades a Zach Sharbonay. But looking at
this offense, I definitively think this offense is going to
go out and be a lot better than it was
last year because people are not also baking in that

(41:56):
Seattle had a bottom five freaking offensive line last year.
Everything that could have gone wrong for their offensive line
went wrong. Gino did not play bad last year, and
I'm gonna repeat that, Gino Spith did not play bad
last year. When they were actually able to keep him
clean in the pocket, every one of his numbers was

(42:18):
still top twelve, regardless of however you splice quarterback play
when he was in a clean pocket. Now, the problem
was is he faced the fifth highest pressure rate in
the freaking NFL last year. This offensive line, if it's
better this year, it's gonna affect the entire offense, the
passing offense, and it's gonna trickle down to Kenneth Walker.
So I'm willing to buy in, and I'm with FITZI.

(42:39):
I think they're ceiling.

Speaker 1 (42:40):
Here, Debro. Let's stick with you for the player you
want to highlight in this group.

Speaker 3 (42:44):
Dude, I get the I feel like the full season
numbers for Jalen Waddle are lying to us in the
sense that what we saw if you look at just
his ending season stat line, people are like, oh, yeah,
let's go low end wind receiver too. Ha, Like he's
the wide receiver nineteen in ECR, he was WAD receiver
twenty one and fantasy points per game. Yes, these are

(43:07):
good things, right, And I'm like, if you really rostered
Jalen Waddle last year, you know that it was not
that pretty on a week to week basis, And he
really doesn't deserve that ranking because he was the wide
receiver twenty seven and expected fantasy points per game fifty
seven percent of his games last year. He did not

(43:28):
finish on a weekly basis as a top twenty four
wide receiver and he gets he got no red zone
usage or en zone usage. He was forty second in
end zone targets. He only got six six in zone
targets the entirety of last year. And now they add
competent pass catchers around him and Tyreek Hill and Odell
Buckham Junior and John Smith. And I'm not telling you

(43:50):
that Odell is gonna like siphon off all of his
volume or John who is? But you're telling me a
guy that also last year, if you look at the
per week numbers, they are much worse as well. As
he wasn't getting ends on usage last year, it's hard
to really say he's gonna definitively get it this year.
So why are we so just enamored and ready to

(44:12):
dive back into the low end wide receiver two pool
with Jaalen Wattle When I think, like right now, in
my rankings he is, I've got him significantly downgrade him,
like he's fifty third overall on my board, and I now,
as far as wide receivers go, he's not that dramatically lower.
There's just a lot of running backs and other players.

(44:32):
Like he's wide receiver twenty four, But I am going
to be below consensus in some way, shape or form
on Jalen Wattle versus everybody else, because I just feel
like these full season numbers are lying to us.

Speaker 1 (44:45):
Well and fits. If Debro is the low man on Wattle,
you're the high man on the Fantasy Pro staff. At
least from what I see here. You've got him in
the high twenties.

Speaker 2 (44:55):
I guess my issue here, and I Debro is right
about the consistency.

Speaker 1 (45:00):
Year.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
We didn't get a week to week from Jalen Waddle.
He was kind of erratic. It was some big boom
weeks and some bust weeks. But I feel like Wattle
is sort of in the Brandon Cooks class as far.
And maybe that's not the best example since Brandon Cooks
did not have a good year last year, but a
guy who for most of his career has just been

(45:21):
so adaptable to whatever situation who threw him into. I mean,
Brandon Cooks get kept getting sort of passed around the league,
and wherever he went, he would fit into that new
situation and put up a thousand yard season. And we've
seen Wattle produce thousand yard seasons without fail since coming
into the NFL, and he's done it without Tyreek Hill,

(45:41):
and he's done it with Tyreek Hill, and he's done
it as a short area of receiver used close to
the line of scrimmage, and he's done it as a
vertical threat and sort of a designated like shot play guy.
So I kind of feel like he's just going to
succeed no matter what. And I'm not really worried about,
you know, Odell Beckham Junior or Malik Wahtu Washington or
John hus Smith stealing targets from him, because I feel

(46:04):
like he is a guy who doesn't need to have
many more than one hundred targets to give you wide
receiver two value. And granted, I do hope he's a
little more consistent than last year. I don't know if
we can expect consistency when you have to share a
field with Tyreek Hill, but I do feel like Jalen
Waddall is just this guy who's really good and it's
gonna get.

Speaker 1 (46:24):
His Let's go to the next grouping here at forty nine.
T Higgins, then Anthony Richardson, Alvin Kamara, Trey McBride, Ze Flowers,
Mark andrews Keenan Allen Christian Kirk, Aaron Jones, George Pickens,
Tank Dell, and David Montgomery and fits. I want to
start with you here because you told us before the
show that you're not entirely sure at this player. You
want to highlight if you want to move him up

(46:46):
or down.

Speaker 2 (46:48):
Yeah, George Pickens. I honestly I have no idea whether
I should be in or out on George Pickens at
his price this year, like with Deontay Johnson getting traded
to the Carolina Panthers, Pickens is the clear number one
I think in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have upgraded the
QB position by adding Russell Wilson and justin Field, so
they're even protected against an injury at quarterback. And it

(47:12):
is worth remembering that after Deontay Johnson heard his hamstring
in Week one last year, Pickens had seventeen catches, three
hundred and fifty seven yards and two touchdowns in the
four games where Johnson was on injured reserve. But well,
Arthur Smith, I mean Arthur Smith is now the Pittsburgh
play caller. Last year in Atlanta, Drake London was the

(47:34):
only good wide receiver on the Falcons roster, and yet
he ranked twenty fourth in targets among wide receivers and
was thirty seventh in PPR scoring among wide receivers, and
like even before Arthur Smith arrived in Pittsburgh, Pickens was
not exactly a prolific target earner. So I'm really conflicted here.

(47:55):
Oh and by the way, you know, I don't like
paying too much attention to schedule, but Pittsburgh does have
a murderous schedule down the stretch, and that includes four
games late in the season against the Browns and Ravens,
whose pass defense is ranked first and second in DVOA
last year. So there's just a lot I'm conflicted about here.

(48:17):
I could see like a smash breakout season for Pickens.
I could see a really disappointing season for Pickens. I'm
just not sure what to do.

Speaker 1 (48:24):
With this guy. What are you doing with him? Debro,
because I kind of agree with it that he is
not somebody that's easy to really like come down on
either way.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
Right now, as Fitz was talking, I'm currently dropping him
in my ranks a little bit, So that's what I'm
doing with him. I think that there are two sides
of this. Can you make the volume conversation for Pickens
in which I did earlier in the offseason as soon
as you know, Deontay Johnson was traded. And the more
that I've had time to kind of simmer about this,
the more that I have gotten worried about it, because

(48:57):
it's not just the passing volume, and now had the
schedule on top of that. It whether you want to
talk about it's does Russell Wilson start the year for them?
And Russell Wilson did not look good last year? And
how long does he hold that job? Out of those
two quarterbacks, I would much rather justin fields throwing the
ball to my wide receivers over Russell Wilson. But veteran

(49:19):
savvy can he manage the games and get wins and
doesn't matter. I mean, Mike Tomain doesn't care if the
score is fourteen to ten, A win's a win. And
so I don't know if we see fields at all
this year. And with Pickins, yeah, I mean I just
dropped into wide receiver thirty three. Right now, I'm below
consensus on him. I already was below consensus, not by
a long stretch, but considering right now in ECR, he

(49:43):
is the fifty eighth overall player. Right now at my ranks,
I dropped George Pickens to seventy first, So I'm going
to be a little bit lower on him because it's
it's multiple parts or pieces. It's not only do you
look at the quarterback play, not only do you look
at the passing ball, but like Fits kind of talked
about what the heck do they do in the red zone?

(50:04):
Like are they gonna use the QB runs? They're gonna
use the running backs a lot in the red zone?
Like Atlanta was not a team that passed in the
red zone last year. I don't think that they're gonna
do that this year with Pittsburgh. So Arthur Smith effect
it It really Kai boshes Pickens on multiple levels. It's like, okay,
volume touchdowns, what's what's our out here? What's what's our

(50:28):
out for Pickens? Oh, he's just good enough and talented
to overcome that. Okay, Hey, George Pickens, callin Drake London,
let's let's talk about that. But you want to talk
to him about how that happened. Colein, Kyle Pitts, Oh,
you'll just get on a You'll just get on a
group call, get on a group chat and discus how
bad that was, like the talent couldn't rise above Arthur Smith,
and that can definitively happen again this year.

Speaker 1 (50:49):
Unfortunately, by the way, I wasn't gonna bring this up
earlier during the Derek Henry conversation because we talked before
the show about how we don't really care so much
about the schedule. But since Fitz brought it up, and
just cause I want to make another point in Henry's favor.
The Ravens play the Texans in week seventeen, So you
get Derek Henry against the Texans, uh in the Fantasy
Championship Games. It'll be quite a Christmas Day, Oh me

(51:11):
oh for Henry managers. Okay, yeah, I think that's a
good case. You know that you're making there kind of
against him, you know, de Bro. I want to go
to your player, Debro, because I know this is somebody
you are much much higher than consent us on.

Speaker 3 (51:26):
Dude, I don't understand what in the ever love and
hell we're doing about tray Ming Bride, Like, why why
is he in the fifties? I stare at him when
I'm on Underdog and I'm selecting him in the forties
and I'm like, pick pick pick, pick pick pick, I
just keep drafting him. Well I don't, I really don't
get what the heck we're doing with him. It's we

(51:46):
have gone sideways with elite tight end in in early
rankings and ECR and just drafts in general. People are like, well,
you know, Travis Kelce, it was a good pick. Different
to make a pick of the last few years. Oh,
Mark Andrew, we were select him in the second round.
This year. Everybody's like, no, no, no, we hate all things
tight end. And it's it's trickle down effect. Man, it's

(52:07):
starting at the very top. But Tram McBride, he's ranked
as the tight end three, the tight end five, and
some rankings. I I just don't know what else trade
McBride has to show people. Last year, weeks eight through eighteen,
he was first or a least top five in everything
first and weighted opportunity first, and target chare fifth and

(52:28):
receiving grade fourth. In yards per route run. He was
fourth in red zone targets amongst all tight ends, and
he only spiked three touchdowns in that spot. So you
can even talk about even the volume he was getting.
There's regression to be had, So Tram McBride. Why do
we not love this man and put him up in
the inside of the top like right now in my rankings,

(52:48):
and people could say I'm insane, for it wouldn't be
the first time people have said this. I have him
as a top twenty player. I look at him as
a difference maker, like I just don't understand what's the
case against him. Oh, Marvin Harrison Junior, Okay, Arizona throws
the ball five hundred freaking fifty times this year. He's
still gonna get plenty of volume. He's still gonna be
top three amongst titans and targets like Marvin Erson Junior

(53:10):
is not getting four hundred freaking targets.

Speaker 1 (53:12):
Like come on you, Debro are not the only person
in our expert consensus rankings to have him as highly
ranked at the position, But you are the highest ranker
in the industry overall in terms of where you are
you are putting him and you know it, I mean,
you admit you know it's like aggressive.

Speaker 3 (53:31):
You know, I'm planning a flag here. It's like if
we get yesteryear type of Travis Kelsey production, which is
basically what the frick we got out of him down
the last part of last season. If that happens through
the entirety of this season with a fully healthy Kyler
Murray in the second year of Arizona's offensive system, why

(53:55):
would we not want that type of player that can
be a difference maker for you squad on a weekly
basis in your lineups? And why is that not worth
going in the second round of drafts? Hell, I'll even
water this down a little bit. Why is that not
worth going in the third round of drafts? Why is
he in the fifties?

Speaker 2 (54:17):
Can I answer that question?

Speaker 3 (54:18):
Please? Do fits? Okay?

Speaker 2 (54:20):
So, like, and this is only meant as gentle pushback, Deebro,
because I.

Speaker 3 (54:25):
Want you to try to push me over, because like,
I just feel like I'm on an island here.

Speaker 2 (54:29):
Man. I like Trey McBride too, although, like he was
the primary number one pass catcher for the Cardinals last
year and he's certainly not going to be that this
year with Marvin Harrison junior a board. But the thing is,
I think it's more about the texture of the overall
tight end market, Debro. Like, it's it's deep, and it
used to be that Travis Kelcey and Mark Andrews were

(54:51):
like the only two things you could really latch onto
a tight end, and you would pay through the nose
to get that. People used to draft Travis Kelsey in
the first round, Mark Andrews, like, you know, no later
than the two three turn. Now you've got a lot
of good young tight ends. You've got McBride, You've got
Dalton Kinkaid, who suddenly is gonna play this enhanced role

(55:13):
in the Bills passing game, presumably with what they've lost
at wide receiver. You've got guys like if you wait
on tight end, like I think Jake Ferguson, and I'm
not trying to be a Wisconsin homer here, but like
the Cowboys haven't really added anything at wide receiver, their
defense maybe has gotten a little bit worse, Like you

(55:36):
can make the case that he's a really good value.
There's just more depth. You can like see optimism for
Kyle Pitts now, like they're ten or eleven good options
at tight end all of a sudden, and we didn't
used to have that. So that's the reason I don't
necessarily want to get one of these guys, Like in
the first three rounds.

Speaker 3 (55:57):
The only mile pushback against that fit that I'll say
here is that we play this game every year with
the tight end depth, and I don't think it necessarily
is as deep as everybody thinks it is. Like George
Kittle is a year older, Kyle Pitts, you can play
the Kirk Cousins. You could play this entire thing like

(56:17):
you play the entire offensive situation. Mark Andrews. Yes, but
then we got to go down the health rabbit hole
with him, touchdowns with Derek Henry, Travis Kelsey's another year older.
I think like looking at those top top tight end guys,
I feel like the players that can give us a
true tight end one overall upside or top three at

(56:38):
the position, I feel like the market's just as thin
as it always has been. I don't disagree that, like
maybe we have a little bit more optimism about the
tight ends, but I also feel like there's guys that
you can poke holes in them. I mean all the
way down the board after like McBride Laporta, really, just

(56:59):
after those two guys, did you get even poke holes
in Kincaid and say, you know what happens with the
targets knocks all that kind of stuff in Buffalo Bill's offense,
just in general.

Speaker 2 (57:08):
I get it, and we've fooled ourselves for certain like
I mean, I used to fool myself every year into
thinking tight end was deeper than it actually was. But
I do feel like I do feel like this time
it's not a mirage that the position really has turned
a corner and that there's unprecedented depth.

Speaker 1 (57:26):
We got to move on to the next round here
at sixty one. Joe Burrow, then Dak Prescott, Terry McLaurin,
Ramandre Stevenson, Kyler Murray, Zamir White, James Connor, DeAndre Swift,
Calvin Ridley, Najee Harris, Rashie Rice, Dalton Kincaid, Jordan Love,
Jayden Reid, and Tony Pollard. So, guys, we'll go quickly
here as we get to the end of the show.

(57:48):
But fits, who are you highlighting.

Speaker 2 (57:50):
Terry McLaurin, who has banked four straight thousand yard seasons,
and the quarterbacks he has played more than one game
with over that stretch are Dwayne Haskins, Kyle i Ellen
late career, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Taylor Heineke, Sam Howell,
and Jacoby Brissett. And now McLaurin gets to play with
Jayden Daniels, the raising Raining Heisman Trophy winner, the number

(58:12):
two pick in the draft, the guy who averaged three
hundred and seventeen passing yards and three point three touchdowns
a game for an SEC team last year. Plus the
Commanders don't have a great running game, They're probably going
to be pretty pass heavy, and they don't have a
very good defense, so they might be thrust into a
lot of shootout game scripts. McLaurin obviously passes the eye test.

(58:32):
He's really good. He's shown us that his ADP should
not be outside the top thirty a wide receiver. Dee
bro Obviously you're very high on Jane Daniels. So are
you expecting big things from McLaurin too, Yes.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
Sir, very much am, because that's another reason why I'm
high on Ben Senon and I'm hi on Luke McCaffrey.
Because John Dotson's not a high end target earner. I
think that, you know, we could see him not even
starting at part, you know, maybe the back half of
the season. But looking at Terry mclall, I just think
he's gonna eat and I think, like you know, all
this yesterdyear, Alan Robinson kind of like memes and stuff.

(59:05):
Terry mclaurin's just that guy, Like it's the DJ Moore
of last year. It's like, hey got him good quarterback?
Play watch him cook?

Speaker 1 (59:12):
Who do you got in this section?

Speaker 3 (59:13):
Debro, Why do we still hate Zamir White? That needs
to get brought up here? Why? Why is that a thing?
Like he's gonna get all the volume he can handle.
And the Raiders upgraded this offensive line in the offseason
with their moves in the draft. They've had him multiple
players from free agency, and the totality of all of

(59:34):
those moves, I think we should be saying as a collective, however,
that all shifts out. The Raiders offensive line will play
better this season. And Zamir White, who's taking touches away
from him Alexander Madison, We've played that game before. He
couldn't even hold the job in Minnesota last year. So no,
I'm not worried about that. A mir Abdullah, no Dylan Lobby,

(59:55):
He's probably not even playing passing downs over a mir Abdullah.
Like Zamir White fifteen through eighteen last year was averaging
twenty three point three touches. He's the RB twelve and
fantasy points per game. He was on pace to have
over three hundred and and I get it as a
four game sample, but over three hundred and fifty freaking
carries in a season. And I don't think he keeps

(01:00:17):
up that type of volume. But still as a player,
the low ball probably for him right now if he
stays healthy, is he's gonna get three hundred touches this year,
And so why why is he going as late as
he is? I understand some people will say, okay, but
he's just a classic dead zone back, like, oh well,

(01:00:40):
we're not that enamor to draft him. He just this
year's Alexander Madison. And I'm like, that's quite harsh considering
when he was the starter over all of the stuff
that I already mentioned amongst forty one qualifying running backs,
he was also thirteenth and explosive run rates, seventeenth and
rushing success rate. So this is not me just clinging
to the volume. But you can make the volume case

(01:01:04):
quite easily, and the other deeper numbers also support that
he was quietly, really stinking good when he was running
the ball last year. So Zamir White, stop disrespecting him.

Speaker 1 (01:01:16):
People, fits you are the low man. On Samir White.
Do you feel like you're disrespecting him?

Speaker 2 (01:01:21):
Oh, I mean I like him, I just don't I
don't see much pass catching upside. That's my one issue
with him.

Speaker 1 (01:01:27):
De Bro, give me one guy who might rise into
the top seventy five here as we wrap up Kyle Pitts.

Speaker 3 (01:01:33):
Man talked about him earlier in this show. I think
he rises in the top seventy five. And for all
the parts and pieces we talked about the Arthur Smiths,
the talent is still there for Kyle Pitts. And I'm
just gonna pull up the one metric that always go
to for tight ends yards per route run against man coverage.
All of the top guys perform extremely well. This is
where you're talking about just looking into the microcosm of

(01:01:56):
elite ceiling. The guys that led in this metric last
year amongst all tight ends with fifty or more routes
versus man coverage, George Kittle, Samuel Porta, TJ. Hockinson, Isaiah Likely,
Evan Ingram, Travis Kelcey, and oh there we go, Kyle
Pits was number seven. So I'm still investing in the
upside of Kyle Pits. I think we finally see the
breakout season he's gonna crush. Yeah, I've already got him

(01:02:18):
ranked as a top seventy five player, but others don't.
As far as our ECR, he's going to get there,
So people need to get on the train.

Speaker 1 (01:02:25):
Fits give me a player for you too that you
think is gonna get into the top seventy five.

Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
Deontay Johnson. And last year, eleven weeks into the season,
all the way up to Thanksgiving, Adam Thelen was wide
receiver ten in PPR scoring and Thelan was averaging nine
point seven targets a game in seven point six catches
a game. Now, that sort of target and catch upside

(01:02:50):
is what Deontay Johnson has for the Carolina Panthers, except
that Deontay Johnson is not going to average under ten
yards per catch like Adam Thielen did last year. Like
Deonta Johnson is younger and better than Adam Thielen. And oh,
by the way, it's possible we get a year two
improvement from Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, who now gets to
work with noted quarterback whisper Dave Canalis.

Speaker 1 (01:03:13):
All right, we will get out of there on that.
We got through the entire top seventy five, plus a
couple action names there for you. Thank everybody for sticking
around for the episode. For Debro and Fits, I'm Ryan
Warmley and we'll see you again next time. Thanks for
listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros

(01:03:35):
dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us on x,
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros

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Will Your Favorite Player Make The Cut? The Top 75 Overall Fantasy Football Player Rankings (Ep. 1262)

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