Would You Rather: Which Fantasy Football Players Would You Take in 2025? (Ep. 1590)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Who would you rather? That is always the biggest fantasy
football question you're in the draft room. Which guy between
this one and that one? We are going to answer
that question today right here on the Fantasy Pros Football podcast.
I am Chris Welsh and I got two fantastic guests.
What we're gonna be doing, as I've always called them,
player debates, players of similar general range, maybe upside versus floor.

(00:25):
There's so many different ways to discuss it. We're going
running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends. We're even going
to do some vets versus rookies. And we have got,
of course, my podcast cohort during the football season, Andrew
Rickson here and someone I've never got to hang out with,
but we became best friends behind the scenes and all
of our similarities. It's Rich Reebar Lord Reeves. Rich what's

(00:48):
up man. It's great to meet you backstage, and I'm
very excited to finally get to not I mean, I
enjoy talking about all of our geeky nerd comic book stuff,
but it'll be good to talk about some other geeky
nerd fantasy football stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
It's the ven diagram is very strong. If you if
you dip into these waters and talk to people. You know,
are you do you like this one thing that's super nerdy?
I bet you like these other things as well. So
we're best friends now, you know, to the last half
hour of hanging out. So I can't wait to come
hang out with you. Get our get our kids together,
and you know, watch watch some X Men ninety seven.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
Our mutual named children as well. That's the other thing
we figured out. And we got to give a little
shoutows of behind the scenes things to our poor our
poor dude Jake Seely, the all in kid who was
going to be joining us here in chaos arose, but
Andrew Erickson heeded the call. He stepped up when it
was needed. And what a great person we can have
for the player debates ericson you're gonna you're gonna bring it.

Speaker 3 (01:38):
I know it.

Speaker 4 (01:38):
I'm always ready to bring If I'm not again, I
was talking behind the scenes with you guys. If you're
not ready to hop on a show five minutes warning
to talk about fantasy football on June, what are you
doing like? You gotta be ready to go. And I
also brought the graphic tea. So even though there is
no thank you, Jake. Seely, there's another graphic tea being
represented here, So I LFG baby, is.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
That a presidential dab? Is that like Washington DA?

Speaker 3 (01:58):
The Patriots?

Speaker 1 (01:59):
The Patriots?

Speaker 4 (02:00):
Remember remember once upon a time Cam Newton was on
the New England Patriots as the quarterback season that I
cannot wait tell my children about that.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
That actually happened, very memorable season exactly. I'm not sure
what those debates would have been back then, but we've
got some good ones. So again, who would you rather?
Big Fantasy football player debates of twenty twenty five with
lots of positional stuff. We're going to be using ECR.
So just want to remind everybody Fantasy pros ranks. It's
fantastic because you can go in and check whether it's
you know, PPR half PPR. These are going to be

(02:28):
at least the ECRs I'm going to give you. This
is based on half PPR, just a nice middle ground.
But you can go through that. You can also check
each individual analyst. You can make groupings or the ECR itself.
The Expert Consensus Ranks is everybody. It's a big old
collection of all the ranks averaging it out. That's what
we're going to be using. That's what I'm going to
be citing. You guys can find the ranks over at
fantasypros dot com slash rankings today. You can peruse, you

(02:51):
can have fun, and you can create your own player debates,
and you can bring it out into the ether and
let everybody vote on it and talk about it. But
these are the ones we have today, So gentlemen, let's
not waste any more time. Let's jump right into it.
We're going to jump over to running backs and we're
going to be on the high end here. And I
think this is actually a really really good one. And
this one actually took place in our Fantasy Pros world

(03:13):
where we're doing a draft. Some of the analysts are
doing it with some listeners and Ryan Wormley had to
hit me up and said, hey, you're on the clock. I,
with the eighth pick, took Ashton Genty and he said,
oh man, I almost took him, but I just decided
Jamiir Gibbs might have like a little bit more of
that floor, but the Genty upside really gets me. Well,

(03:34):
guess what, gentlemen, there is our debate Jamir Gibbs ECR
RB three versus Ashton Genty, who is RB five. But
we have seen some hot takes on this channel, and
we've obviously seen that there is a lot a lot
of people that want to just jump in and think
he has the potential to be the RB one for
this year. So Rich, let's start with you. Who would

(03:55):
you rather in the first round running back debate, Jamir
Gibbs or Ashton Genty.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
I will say all the ones you put on the sheet,
this was the one that kind of gave me the
most pause, Like you know when you see the names
and the other ones that will go through. I kind
of had a pretty definitive like, yeah, this guy, but
this one. And I think it's just because they're two
first round picks, right, like you could see the upside
angle for both. I do think that I would break
the tie or semi tie with Jamior Gibbs just being

(04:21):
on an offense, I believe in more. And you can
also even poke some holes in that with no Ben Johnson,
some potential team regression. Frank ragnow just retiring as well.
But we have seen a fleeting sample of Jamiir Gibbs
without David Montgomery be the best player in all Fantasy football.
I mean, he has had a high floor. He's sixteen
point nine PPR points per game with David Montgomery playing,

(04:43):
and then twenty seven point four PPR points theer game
with David Montgomery off the field. He's finished RB eight
and RB two in points per game. It's really easy
to make the case for Jint though, like, you know,
the one of the best cleanest running back prospects going
to a Pete Carroll Chip Kelly offense right, Like think
the only things they're kind of really pulled down for
him is that maybe the Raiders are a worst team.

(05:04):
They definitely have a more questionable offensive line even with
the rag Now retirement factored in, and the Raiders on
our end do have our twenty fourth ranked run schedule.
But these running backs that have been first round fantasy
picks have largely been pretty safe picks. I mean, Jamir
Gibbs was the RB twelve most recently, Bijon Robinson that
same year in twenty twenty three. Both those guys finished
top ten in overall scoring. Naji Harris was a top

(05:27):
five pick, you know, it was a top five finish
and was RB one. Really only Clyde Edwards Hilaire is
like the only brick in like this range of like
the past decads you had Saquan, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournett,
Ezekiel Elliott, and the ghost of Trent Richardson. All those
guys finished as top ten running backs and were taken
as RB one's the rookie years as well. So this
one was tight. I still kind of just give minor

(05:49):
edges to Gibbs.

Speaker 1 (05:51):
So Erickson, do you think this one is as tight
or do you think it's a bigger window because the
Gibbs argument is laid out right there at the end
of the day, there's an another running back there. It's
a big powerful offense. We already know who Gibbs is
versus gent who sky high potential, and maybe he gets
all the usage and pulls, you know, like the comparisons
of saquon rookie year valuations are kind of out there.

(06:13):
What do you think? Obviously the ECR is a little
bit different, and it's there's a running back in between
both of these guys. But when push comes to shove,
who would you rather Genty or Gibbs?

Speaker 3 (06:23):
It still gives for me, he is my RB two.

Speaker 4 (06:25):
I have Genty as my RB three, So I do
think that it is close, and I think that when
you're looking at it from a volume projection, Yeah, Genty
should touch the ball more times than Gibbs and then
that gives him a path where he can outscore Jamior Gibbs.
But I go back to offense environment. Even if the
Lions take a step back, is it still are the
Raiders going to now lap them?

Speaker 3 (06:44):
Essentially?

Speaker 4 (06:45):
Like the Raiders like offense, we expect to be better,
but is it going to be goodenough where they're taking
over the Lions who have basically been a top five
offense the last two seasons. And I always think back
to you know, what's the cheat code with fantasy running backs?
It's pass catching, it's receiving. We know Jamiir Gibbs is
an elite receiver out of the backfield. We're hoping that
Genty can be that what he did his sophomore year.

(07:06):
He was using a lot more in the passing game
last year not as much. What is it gonna look
like in this Chip Kelly offense? Are they gonna feed
him a ton of targets? Gino Smith? Last year they
threw the ball a lot. We saw ken Walker catch
more passes, but the two years before that there really
wasn't a lot of running back target. So I think
that's still more of a projection what he's gonna use,
like in the passing game. I'm optimistic that he'll see
a role, but to the extent that it will be

(07:27):
better than Gibbs. I'm not as bullish on and the
fact that he turns into a Dataly and Tomlinson. If
Dave Montgomery misses any time like that's that's upside like
the single highest scoring player at the position where GENTI, yes,
the volume should be there, but he still needs to
make the jump to the NFL steeper competition. And I
think from a starting perspective, I expect Gibbs to hit

(07:49):
the ground running. And two, if this line's offense does
regress and Jared Goff kind of goes back to you
know sometimes that we saw him with the rams, I
feel like he's just gonna look for Gibbs. He's gonna
that like find his checkdown option. I think Gibs could
really eat as a receiver, So I do think it's close.
I'm definitely open to both guys. That's why I have
them both inside my top three, but I'm going to
lean Gibbs as well.

Speaker 1 (08:10):
I'm going to do this just really quick. We don't
think get into crazy analysis. But now I'm just quickly
out a third name and just rank these players. Those
two and Saquon Barkley and Erickson.

Speaker 3 (08:21):
Let's start with you, Gibbs, Jen d Saquon Barkley.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
That's what I wanted to hear. That's how I was
going for rich What do you think we had Saquon
Barkley in there? How does that list look?

Speaker 2 (08:30):
Yeah, Saquon is the little tricky Obviously, You're going to
see a lot of you know, reports about the touch
count that he had last year and the you know,
the the fall off that players with that many touches have,
and you know, it's it's necessarily that Saquon had a
lot of touches. He's a running back. The next touch
is always the one that matters, right, It's not necessarily
the four hundred and eighty two he had the season prior.
It's the next touch. I do think the Eagles are
going to throw more. And the one thing about Saquon

(08:52):
that happened last year that I don't think a lot
of people realize is that he had his the worst
receiving usage of his career, which we thought was going
to be in the range of outcome with Jalen Hurts
get and then the Toush push was still a factor
for him. So if you're not housing fifty yard touchdown
runs at the same rate you were last year, which
he did at a greater rate than anyone's ever done,
and then literally since Jim Brown, So like if you

(09:14):
just have some regression in that long touchdown dependence and
you're not catching passes and you're not scoring touchdowns, those
eventually pulled down your overall you know, production from a
fantasy stance where even if Jant doesn't catch seventy passes,
I think we have a pretty clean line where he's
gonna catch like thirty plus, right, And like that's still
a question with Saquon in these full PPR formats. I
think the format matters as well too if you're kind

(09:35):
of trying to break some ties to with those guys,
because I think, do you think the other guys are
just gonna catch more passes than Saquon?

Speaker 1 (09:40):
So was Markley third on that list for you two?

Speaker 2 (09:44):
Yeah? I think so. Just the way we play it right,
like we don't know overbout the last time the RB
one repeated was was Priest Holmes in twenty two thousand
and two, two thousand and three. Like it just doesn't
like it doesn't happen. Chasing last year's RB one very
rarely works out.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
All right, Well, we'll chase a former RB one and
if I'm here, you know, I'm gonna have to bring
up this guy. But I think this is a good
debate ericson, don't you give me that smirky, tell me
this is a good one. Bucky Irving versus Christian McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey comes in at RB seven, polarizing with injuries.
Kind of feels like you love the value and you
love them or big no thanks, versus Bucky Irving, who

(10:21):
has been phenomenal. He's ECR RB ten, so he's lower
as McCaffrey is ECR RB seven. But you know, the
hype on Bucky Irving where you want to get him?
Maybe I don't know where it kind of I guess
depends on where you feel on Rashad White as well.
There's a little bit of a difference obviously in ECR
but it does feel like you've got to be in
one direction or the other. With Christian McCaffrey, not a

(10:43):
lot of people sitting on the fence. So rich do
you sit on the fence or is it Bucky or Christian?
Who would you rather? In twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (10:51):
No, I'm not on the fence of Christian McCaffrey. I
still believe he's a play to win pick. I think
a lot of people are treating him as just a
play not to lose. Avoid This is the player that
we've seen is in an offensive environment where he's still
he's only gonna be twenty nine, like he's not dead.
Granted there's a risk of reward factoring because he has
missed double digit games and three of his seasons, but
any season he's ever finished, he's been the RB one

(11:13):
or the RB two in points per game, and he's
in a system that stills they're pushing the forty nine
ers haven't given up on their window, like they're still
going to try to win games and they're going to
maximize Christian McCaffrey. I believe, And you look at the
games he played last year, in the two games he
played at brock Perty ninety percent of the backfield touches
twenty percent of the target still went over one hundred
yards for scribbage in both of those games. The forty

(11:36):
nine ers are a team I believe are just collectively
miss priced this year. Everything went wrong for them last year,
and I think it's getting over factored into all the
price point for all of these guys, I mean including
you know, like not only was Brandon Uth, Deebo, Samuel Jown, Jennings,
Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, christimccaffrey all missed multiple games. Trent
Williams also missed seven games. It was it was a
collective issue. And even with all that happening, they were

(11:57):
second in the NFL and plays with twenty five plus
they were fourth and expected touchdowns. They have by far
our easiest schedule, passing schedule and rushing schedule. This year,
they're projected to be the seventh highest scoring team in
the NFL. I still think Christian McCaffrey still has at
least one more ride in the sunset while he's you know,
active in playing. I get that that's a question mark,

(12:18):
but I still want to play to win. If you're
going to give him at the one two turn. Now,
I feel like that's just really too tempting to pass up.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
ECR is saying the same thing. It's agreeing with you
ericson do you agree who would you rather, Bucky Irving
or Christian McCaffrey in twenty twenty five? This is probably
assuming I'm not going to like put the caveats of
like where they're going, because these are all pretty close.
But you know, this is probably an early second round
pick that you're you're putting into one of these two players.
Which one are you going with?

Speaker 3 (12:45):
I'm going with Christi McCaffrey.

Speaker 4 (12:46):
I don't have the bias or recency buyason because I
didn't draft him last year, so I don't feel bad
about Okay, well now I'll drafted this year because now
he's discounted, because the upside case for him is he
scores more points when he's healthy than any other player
on the shooting for that maximum upside, I think is
what we see when Christian McCaffrey is healthy. And I
think rich laid out a great point with the forty

(13:07):
nine ers. Overall, you want to buy this offense. You
want to buy all the discount piece after they all
got hurt last year. Their defense I think is major
question marks. He laid out the schedule. I think they're
slated to just throw a ton of touchdowns, both rushing receiving.
Mcaffrey's going to play a big role in that. So
for me, I think it's going to be McCaffrey. And
then on the Bucky side, again, we have another new

(13:28):
offensive coordinator, right, you know what does the split work
like with Rashad White. I have less question marks about
mcaffrey's healthy. He's in my lineup, like that's all it takes.
Like that's the only question mark that I have to answer.
So he's the pick for me.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
Yeah. And the thing with Bucky two is, and this
might not happen to Bucky, but the year two running
back that has been elevated to like the second round
fringe wider seat, our fringe running back one has been
like an archetype of player that has burned us, like
pretty repeatedly in fantasy football. I don't want to see it.
Bucky Irving was so good last year, but all these

(14:01):
other guys were too. You go down the list, these
guys that weren't drafted with high draft capital, had a
small sample of like really hyper efficiency, Andre Ellington, Miles Sanders,
Jeremy Hill, Jeremy Laying For, Thomas Rawls, James Robinson. Like
these guys were all pushed in that year two up
up into that bucket, and like we got torched on
those guys.

Speaker 1 (14:22):
And I'm gonna do this one more time, one little
side one. Let me throw this, especially when we have
you guys both agreed, because I have to be the
deciding factor if we have disagreement, which God knows we'll
have any disagreement here. But when we get the other
guy and you guys both moved quick to Christian McCaffrey,
let me just throw this sad to you. Does anything change?
Eric's let's start with you again. You don't have to
get into big breakdowns, just a quick one. Let's now

(14:43):
go Bucky Irving versus Chase Brown. Do we have a change.

Speaker 3 (14:49):
I will take Bucky Irving there.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
Okay, So I just know you're a Chase guy. Didn't
know if that would push it, and we're a Green
rich yeah.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
I also, I mean having literally back to back, so
you know, but it's Bucky Irving was just a little
bit better of a player than Chase Brown was last
year and Chase Brown was all value.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
That's true. All right, Let's move into like an RB
two range here for our third of the running backs,
and this is going to be a nice rookie versus
vet situation. We actually have some later that are specific.
This one would have probably followed into it, but these
are both RB twos. In fact, this is RB twenty
and RB twenty one on ECR so right next to
each other. We've mentioned one of these guys already RB twenty,

(15:28):
David Montgomery, touchdown equity offense, you love it. But we
also mentioned Jamier Gibbs. Who's that first round pick. We
are going to pair him against Amaron Hampton with the Chargers.
Chargers bring in Najee Harris, maybe questions. A lot of
people tell you, don't worry about any of the rbs
that come in, these veteran rbs that come in to
affect any of these rookies. These guys are next to
each other. Should it be that way? Who would you

(15:52):
rather rich, Amaron Hampton or David Montgomery.

Speaker 2 (15:55):
This one is really rough because I would rather have
James Connor than both these guys. He's drafted after them.
But I mean it's kind of because it's kind of
a case of two different things, right, Like you're looking
at David Montgomery and you know you're getting like that
that touchdown based floor. We haven't really seen him play
a lot of games without Jamior Gibbs. There was a
two game sample, you know, Gibbs his rookie year, and

(16:17):
then Montgomery got banged up in the second game of that,
So we haven't really seen like him have like that Gibbs.
You in like could be Ladaanian Thomas, like you know,
Ericson said earlier, like that doesn't really exist in the
range of out comes to Montgomery gets a spike, but
he hasn't turned to like this world beating entity a
Marion Hampton has to deal with Najee Harris and and
I gonna I get like Naji Haris Like on paper,

(16:37):
you guys are like this dude's not that much of
a threat. Naji Harris, I promise you as a dude
that like coaches love, like this is like the type
of running back that coaches love because he doesn't do
anything bad, he doesn't do anything great, but he doesn't
like lose you games either, and like coaches love that
type of stuff. And I promise you that Greg Roman
and Jim Harbo are are gonna love a dude like that.
It's why they went out and got him. So, you know,

(17:00):
it's a really tough kind of call here to say, like,
is Hampton going to be a guy that's in a
timeshare the whole way as a rookie, or does the
draft capital say like, hey, there's a runway for him
to just take over Najie Harris who's only on a
one year contract, and then you're getting this back half
of the year RB one. That range of outcomes, I
think it will lead me to swing on Hampton more.
But these are two guys that I don't really draft

(17:22):
very often because again I have a running backs below
them that it wasn't part of the equation.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
Ericson you got a chance? Is this going to be
a clean sweep of agreement across the board? Are you
going to push against Amaron Hampton versus David Montgomery? Who
would you rather in twenty twenty five?

Speaker 3 (17:38):
My friend, well, I agree with so I can take
James Connor over.

Speaker 1 (17:42):
You cannot take James James Connor.

Speaker 4 (17:44):
I also have it right the exact same way, where
Connor is above both of these players. I think for me,
it's the rookie. When in doubt, take a shot on
one of these rookie running backs. We know this class
is absolutely stacked, and maybe the planets don't align in
week one or week two for a Marion Hampton. But
who's to say it's going to be the perfect runout
for Dave Montgomery. It's been the perfect runner for Dave
Montgomery the last two seasons, where he's just been a

(18:05):
touchdown machine. If the Lion's regressing on offense hurts anybody
the most, I think it would probably Montgomery because if
they go from a top three scoring team to then
they are now tenth in terms of total points scored. Well,
who's that going to hurt Probably the guy that's the
most touchdown dependent of the main playmakers, which is a
Dave Montgomery. We know that Gibbs is really the primary

(18:25):
pass catcher. We know that Gibbs is the one that's
used and can make play. He can create his own
red zone opportunities essentially because of how explosive he is.
Dave Montgomery doesn't necessarily offer that. So if the Lions
are playing from behind, is Montgomery in the game we
don't know, so I think for me, I'd rather take
the swing on Omar and Hampton and Welsh. I'm always
thinking about projecting ahead too the season. When you have
these guys on your roster, you know, in redract, you're

(18:48):
thinking about trades. Who's going to have more trade value?
Just every single Hampton. Every single week, people are going
to be trying to get Hampton from you because if
he starts out so whereas Dave Montgomery, I don't necessarily
see where he's going to get value as the season progresses.
Hampton could do nothing for the first month and his
value could still hold because we know in the end
rookies usually went out. So I think we're all looking

(19:09):
at it from all different facets. It's good Hampton is
just the better pick, and really it's unless you really
need front line production, I guess Montgomery would be the pick.
But at the same time, that's why James Hunter is
a great pick here, because he's the guy that can
deliver a ton of front line production, you know, before
he suffers an injury.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
Though I would say, like similar to what you said before,
if Gibbs were to miss time, Montgomery is a monster
because he is the guy, so in the same vein
of giving the little extra credit to Gibbs like Montgomery
would deserve that. But if you're keeping stats here, that
of the running backs, that's two of the three favorites
in ECR that were in agreement. This is the first

(19:48):
one where you guys are taking the ECR lower players.
So we've got a Marion Hampton over Montgomery. That is
the first lower ECR guy over the other two. Are there,
you guys listening and watching, comment below and you can
tell us who would you rather. When you do so,
it might even get you some free stuff on those RBS.
Give Ben a Way a wide receiver giveaway, because this

(20:09):
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subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, super easy,
drop a comment below on any video and that's it.
And I just gave you guys the suggestion you guys

(20:31):
go and put in who you like in those RB
debates and bam, you guys are in. We'll be announcing
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to turn on notifications so you can check out the
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the George Pickens autograph.

Speaker 3 (20:46):
Jersey.

Speaker 1 (20:47):
Gentlemen, let's move to the wide receivers. We've got a's
kind of similar. It's like a very top end wide
receiver debate. We've got that wide receiver Round two is debate,
and then we're going a little bit deeper. So let's
start at the top end. We've even had this conversation before.
Wide receiver eight versus wide receiver seven. Nico Collins, Brian
Thomas Junior. I think I even saw a report today

(21:09):
Brian Thomas landed wrong in a practice or whatever. We're
in that range where like, oh yeah, any of these
like practices, one little thing could happen. There was a
quarterback we might have discussed that we didn't because we
got new news. But this one is Brian Thomas Nico
Collins there next to each other in ECR. So Rich,
take it away, which wide receiver would you rather have?

Speaker 2 (21:28):
It's still the chalk the player ahead here in Nico Collins.
I mean, Nico Collins was going to contend to be
the wide receiver one last year for a stretch of
the season. Then he picked up that hamstring injury literally
on what a sixty five yard touchdown that he caught,
like popped the wheel. And then after Week eleven, you know,
just wasn't the same player when he came back from injury. However,

(21:49):
he steal was third among all receivers and yards per
out run. If you take the top ten yards per
run seasons of the past two years, there's only two
players that a up here on the list from both seasons,
and it's Pokinakua and Nico Collins. In the games he played,
he had forty percent of the team targets in the
red zone, fifty eight percent of the end zone targets
the money the money looks both those are top five rates.

(22:12):
I still just have a little more confidence in his
offensive infrastructure. And remember, like the Texans hired a guy
from the McVeigh tree and Nick Keyley to be the
offensive coordinator. Like, what if Nico Collins starts to get
some of that free square stuff that we've seen wide
receiver ones in that offensive system get two as well.
I still I have no problem with Brian Thomas Junior,
and I would love to have Brian John Thomas Junior

(22:33):
a bunch of fantasy teams this year. But if you're
making me choose, I'm choosing Nico.

Speaker 1 (22:36):
Collins when I may have also said it weird by
the way, because Nico is a spot below Brian Thomas.

Speaker 2 (22:41):
Right, I assumed he was the chalk ahead of him.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
No, Brian Thomas is number seven on ECR. Nico Collins
is number eight. Andrew Eerckson, could this be the first
disagreement between both of you, very smart gentlemen.

Speaker 3 (22:55):
No, no, it won't be.

Speaker 4 (22:57):
And that definitely sounds weird for me because I was
really the Brian Thomas Jnior guy lash. I mean, I
have the lead all rookies and receiving yards the eighteen
to one bet we hit that last year with Brian
Thomas Junior, so it feels weird to be going against
him here. But Nico Collins is just so clearly the
alpha wide receiver in this Texans offense, and when he's

(23:18):
been healthy the last two years, he's top five in
the NFL and receiving yards per game receiving arts per game. Again,
we have so many of these vance metrics. When it
times to projecting fantasy points. At the simplest numbers, it's
just how many yards does this guy get? Like that's
the best projector of future fantasy production, and Nico Collins
checks off all the boxes. So you look at his
target competition compared to last year. Last year it was

(23:39):
an ascending Tank Dell and an established Sevon Diggs. Now
it's Christian Kirk on his third team and he can
never stay healthy in the second half of seasons and
two rookie wide receivers that they drafted. He's just so slated.
If this Texans offense just gets back to where they
were with CJ. Stroud as a rookie, Nico Collins've been
going back to fifteen hundred receiving yards, fifteen plus receiving touchdowns,

(24:03):
And as much as I love Brian Thomas Junior, there's
just more question marks about what his role will look like.
Not to say that he's not going to be heavily involved,
but it's still a new offense. He didn't break out
last year with Trevor Lawrence. It was a different quarterback
last year and now you add a really talented player
in Travis Hunter into the equation who really wasn't a factor.
There really wasn't another number two with Brian Thomas Junior

(24:24):
last year, and we've seen with Brian Thomas Junior where
he really opens things up for other receivers to potentially eat.
Just like at LSU, Malik Nabers was the guy that
was getting all the receptions, whereas he was ripping off
all the big plays.

Speaker 3 (24:36):
So it's enough.

Speaker 4 (24:37):
I can see enough where I give the slight edge
to Nico, but I have them ranked back to back,
and again I would love both of them on my team.

Speaker 1 (24:44):
But yeah, and I'm looking here too. If you go
on to Fantasy Pros on the ranks fantasypros dot Com
slash rankings, you can also click into the player and
you can also see like the best and the worst
individual ranks, and you can see all the rankers. So
when you're looking at both of these guys, Brian Thomas
does not have a rank above three. So there are
there's only actually two people that have Brian Thomas as

(25:08):
wide receiver number three this season, and then it keeps
going down by the way. One of them, Derek brown
deebro Boy not here he has him as the wide
receiver three. Nico Collins has two people ranking him as
the number two overall wide receiver and then a handful
that have him at three, including Andrew Rickson who has
him at three. So just an interesting thing that you've

(25:28):
got a higher high end sentiment on Nico Collins over
Brian Thomas right now in the ranks. Yet Brian Thomas
is ranked higher, which is you know, So it ends
up like leveling itself out and Brian Thomas ends up
being the top guy here. But you guys are both
going with one below. So Nico Collins wins that who
would you rather next up? I personally really like this

(25:49):
one At this rate, you guys might just continuously agree
and maybe it won't be as good, but I thought
this was a fun one. Drake London who is wide
receiver ten on half point ECR here versus Lad McConkie,
and I understand maybe full point might change this a
little bit, but Lad was a monster. He is wide
receiver twelve. These are both wide receiver ones in the
top twelve range. So Rich, Drake London, Lad McConkie, who

(26:14):
do you want.

Speaker 2 (26:15):
This was the first one. I actually don't have particularly
close and like my own individual stuff. I mean I
am a volume four player. I mean, Drake London had
forty five more targets than Lad McConkie last year. And
I think some people are taking away some of the
back half signal from the Chargers in the wrong direction.
You know, the Chargers the front half of the year,
they weren't very pass heavy. They were giving us that

(26:36):
hardball Roman offense, but their running backs are terrible. They
couldn't run the ball at all, and they started to
throw more. And there's a clear line where Lad McConkie
and Justin Herbert started to take off for fantasy. And
I would love for that to be something that we
can count on just being static. But when you look
at every move that the Chargers made in conjunction with

(26:57):
the way their season ended, Remember the Chargers season ends
with their quarterback throwing foreig interceptions and their running backs
averaging under three yards per carry. That's not the way
Jim Harball and Greg Rumman want to play football. And
this season what do they do when offseason opens. They
signed McKay Beckton, a run grading guard. They get Najie
Harrison and the US A first round pick in on
Marin Hampton, Like they still scream to me, like they

(27:20):
haven't shedded their skin, Like this is still a team
that has potential value issues from a passing stance. Whereas
the Atlanta Falcons, I know they're gonna be pressed and
they're gonna be pressed to throw the football. And you
look at especially like the Falcons schedule, like they open
with teams like they have to score points. They open
against the Bucks, the Vikings, the Panthers, who usually say
the Panthers, but they just last time we saw these

(27:40):
teams play, they played a sixty point bonanza. The Commanders,
the Bills, the forty nine Ers, the Dolphins, the Patriots
could be sneaky upside they get the Bucks, the Cardinals
and the Rams and the Fantasy playoffs, Like the Falcons
are gonna have to score points. Their defense might not
be good. And Drake London, I think as like Loki
and I know I'm saying this the Fantasy Pros podcast

(28:01):
and de Bro's not here, Like I think he's drawing
live to be the PPR wide receiver one this season.
Drake London is I mean, we saw him get that
Zach Robinson bump in terms of slot usage. That got
him free squares, and then when Michael Pennix took over,
he started them to blend those short targets with targets
that come with upside. His eight out went up. Michael
Penicks pushed about outside the numbers and down the field

(28:23):
was he was an absolute unit. When Michael Pennock took over.
It was only a three game sample, but then top down,
no matter who the quarterback was, Drake London had sixty
percent of the team's end zone targets. Like this guy,
like Zach Robinson, knew the assignment to get Drake lundon
the football. Just I don't think this one is particularly close.
I love Lad mcconackie the player. I think he's he
have a tremendous career in Dynasty. I love Land mcconakie.

(28:45):
I think Drake London tortures him in Fantasy football this year.

Speaker 1 (28:48):
So this one, this one is actually gonna be fun
in a completely different way. Here. So, first off, I
already know Ericson's answer. The reason I know Ericson's answer
is because he is the highest individual ranker on all
the Fantasy pros on one of these wide receivers, so
I already know what it is. I'm going to give
you another little I'm tipping my hand here. Also, weird thing,

(29:10):
Lad McConkie's actually moved up since I put this together yesterday.
He is now Wide Receiver eleven. I just noticed. So
these guys are same tier on ECR. They are next
to each other. Rich says this ain't close. Ericson, you're
gonna agree.

Speaker 4 (29:25):
I don't think it's close either. I think it's clearly
Drake London. And I'm glad that Rich called him a
unit because that's.

Speaker 3 (29:30):
Exactly what he is.

Speaker 4 (29:31):
And I'm co signing the lie for wide Receiver one
overall finish. And I don't really don't know if I
have anything else to add, because you hit on all
the points that I was going to bring to the table.
The only thing I would add again going into the
high value opportunities that Drake London has seen through three years,
he leads the NFL at wide receiver in terms of
red zone target rate. Whenever he's in the red zone,
he's been peppered with targets, and the last six wide

(29:53):
receiver one overall finishers all led the NFL and red
zone targets per game, and last year he was leave
inside the top five in terms of total red zone targets,
and that's been with multiple quarterbacks. So I love Drake
London this year. I think that he is just an
auto pick in the second round and I wouldn't even
persuay someone from taking him at the end of a
round one.

Speaker 2 (30:13):
Michael Pennix through nine passes into the end zone last
year and six of them were to Drake London.

Speaker 1 (30:19):
I mean, if he gets plenty of those opportunities, London's
gonna thrive. If some butts were candy and nuts, though,
we'd all have the Merry Christmas. And that's always a
Falcons conversation we could have. But I would love to
know in the comments, do you guys agree that this
one is so wildly off base that it is so
in favor of Drake London, Because you know, this also
might be telling you if to say no, rankers are

(30:41):
saying no, this is very close not only same tier,
but they are next to each other. But the other
thing that would be really interesting about this, does anybody
think there's a chance that lad could be higher than
Drake London and is this a maybe future forecast if
you guys come back on Fantasy Pros in a month
or two in heavy draft season, is Drength London going

(31:01):
to be a lot higher? You know? Is this only
a few people that are locking in As ranks continue
to come in and people do more research. Could we
see Drake London pushing guys like AJ Brown who's a
tier higher, Nico Collins and Brian Thomas. We just talked
about interesting conversation, but you guys agree that it is
this far apart, all right? Last one on the wide receivers,
we're moving down a little bit. We are floating somewhere

(31:24):
between the wide receiver two wide receiver three range and
this one's kind of a mix back these. I think
this actually might be the biggest rank differentials between any
guys we're going to talk about, and that might create
you guys both being like, oh, it's clearly the high guy.
But part of this is about Xavier Worthy, who is
wide receiver twenty seven on ECR who I think Erickson.

(31:46):
We've done shows where we've talked about like, hey, Rashi
Rice is fun, but at the end of the day,
like Xavier Worthy still is going to be the guy.
He proved himself to be the guy. Except we jokingly
talk about Xavier Worthy and we say, well, he was
in the Raci Rice role. Well, Rachie Rice is back
and potentially could take his role back. But he is
lower than DJ Moore, who comes in at ECR twenty.

(32:07):
So this is a big difference. But we put this
together as well because you've got Burden who's coming in,
You've got everybody assuming Duneesda is going to take over,
and if we have Caleb Williams being all a whole
lot better, what really, like, how big of a big
boost and positive is that for DJ Moore? So all
of that little conjecture in the front here, Rich, is
this another big gap between these two guys? What do

(32:28):
you say DJ Moore is ECR twenty Xavier Worthy is
twenty seven? Does it deserve to be that big of
a gap? And are you going to pick DJ Moore?

Speaker 2 (32:36):
These are two guys that I just haven't been drafting.
This makes this kind of fun because it made me
kind of just like, you know, analyze the two. I
still believe, if you're just betting, I believe DJ Moore
is a significantly better wide receiver than Xavier Worthy though,
so if like that would be where I would start,
Like the conversation with is that we've seen DJ Moore
win on all three levels, whereas we've not seen that
from Xavier Worthy at all. We saw Xavier Worthy make

(32:59):
that push towards the end of last season, but a
lot of that was like a lot of stuff created,
you know, manufactured near the line of scrimmage. He wasn't
winning with nuance. I mean, if you guys follow Matt
Harmon's work at reception perception, Savior Worthy as a player
that just he just didn't grade out very well, especially
against man coverage and pressman. We just really haven't seen
him be like a great, great wide receiver yet and

(33:20):
it could have happened. You know, he's a young Player's
only me a year two player building off a strong
second half. But now we have to go into this
season with kind of question mark, like where are all
these Chiefs wide receivers fit together now? Because ra she
Rice is also a player that doesn't win with a
lot of nuance. A lot of things have been his
sample one near the line of scrimmage, right, you get
Hollywood Brown, because remember last year we didn't get to

(33:41):
see any the way the Chiefs wanted to operate their
passing game at all. I mean, HOLLYO. Brown got injured
in the preseason missus fourteen games or she rice opens
the season, he's hurt in Week four and they have
to default run the offense back through a thirty five
year old Travis Kelce, which clearly wasn't the plan if
you watch the opening month of the season and the
Chiefs kind of often just was never good like from

(34:01):
a passing stance, and it injured Mahomes. I think that's
what makes Mahomes interesting too, is kind of having this
all back and reset at the blocks of like, hey,
we're gonna have the three receivers back and then hopefully
Kelsey's a complimentary piece versus you know, traffing to run
this offense now a thirty six year old Travis Kelsey
who's coming off of like the worst efficiency of his career.
So it makes it interesting. But DJ Moore, I think

(34:23):
is just a bet on the better football player if
you're making me pick getting involved with Ben Johnson getting
rid of getting him removed from the Shane Waldron Thomas
Brown offense that was a year ago, which was. He
was just a nightmare. If you saw any interviews with him,
he talked about his usage was absolutely awful, getting the
ball just at the line of scrimmage, which he hated,

(34:44):
not getting used creatively. If you watch his body language
during the season last year, he looked completely checked out.
And it's because the offense was a travesy. You still
have to hope that Caleb Williams can overcome some of course,
correct some of the mistakes that he had as a rookie.
Things that quarterbacks, whether the coordinator is good or not,
don't really correct. This offense just was so bad last year.

(35:06):
It's hard to take a lot away from what the
Bears did and say like, hey, any all this, any
of it could be static. It's this guest game. I'd
rather have like guys like DeVante Smith and probably Courtland
and even in this range. But if you're making me pick,
I would choose the guy who I believe is just
a better football player.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
Saxon, I'm obviously the same question, who would you rather?
But I'm gonna throwing a little cavegat I'd love to
get if it sways your answer at all, you can
still give your normal answer, but then like, does this
play into it? Does an extra round of value matter
to you here, because we're probably looking at dj More
based on the overall ranks here, you're looking at him
as roughly a fourth round player, but you're looking Xavier

(35:45):
Worthy somewhere between five and six. So straight line answer
worthy versus DJ Moore. This is a difference between wide
receiver two and three. But also round would be the
secondary thing. I'd be curious if it matters at all
from a talent perspective. If they're close, I don't.

Speaker 4 (35:58):
Think it would move the needle for me that much.
Just getting Worthy, you know, around later than Djmore, it's
still that middle round range where I think that you're
still trying to make bets on potential breakout wide receivers.
And to Rich's point, I haven't really been drafting Dgmore
a lot either, for some of the reasons he laid out,
just the vibes in general with him and Ben Johnson,

(36:19):
just it doesn't seem like, oh, yeah, this is gonna
work out great, this is gonna be a fantastic pairing.
I would rather wait and draft O dude again the
value game. If I'm gonna bet on this Bears offense.
Just give me a duneesay. Second, your guy breakout candidate.
And that's kind of how I was Seaworthy, where yes,
a lot of receivers break out as rookies, but then
a lot of them break out in year two. And
the way that they have talked about Xavier Worthy, it's

(36:41):
exactly like they talked about Roshie Rice when they talked
about Hey, his rookie year, the first half of the
season was okay, kind of up and down. Then he
really hit his stride in his second half of that
rookie year. That's exactly what Xavier Worthy did last year
at the second half of his rookie season. Like it
was getting bad to start the to start the season,
it was like, this guy's gonna be a buzz, Like
what's gonna happen with David Worthy? But then he turned
it on. I get that the Super Bowl numbers are

(37:04):
very not realistic, but I think that the Chiefs they
keep talking about we want to bring back the deep ball.

Speaker 3 (37:11):
I I don't know. I just think that is ever
Worthy again a prospect. I really liked.

Speaker 4 (37:15):
He showed out in the second half of the season,
and we when to look at some of the second
year receivers under Andy Reid that fit this speed type
of player that is Abworthy can be that. I think
that he maybe hasn't unlocked yet. Deshaun Jackson, Tyreek Hill
just for some examples. Those guys both blew up in
year two with Andy Reid as the head coach. So
if Roshie Rice is limited or just not back to

(37:38):
his one hundred percent coming off of this season ending injury,
maybe he takes a little bit longer to get going.
I think that this team can really use I think
we could see Worthy and Rice both hit if Travis
Kelsey is the one that ends up taking a big
step back. So I'm definitely more open to Worthy than
DJ Moore.

Speaker 1 (37:53):
Oh so you're you're going Worthy. You pulled the a
rug here, J Moore, we got some discent here, Okay,
so that's where you're leaning. But the very first response,
I would thought you were like, oh no, poopoo this
it's DJ Moore, Da da da love the breakdown.

Speaker 2 (38:07):
Love that.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
So I have to be the one to break the
tie here. Then I think I'm gonna go with Worthy,
and I think I might throw in a little bit.
And this is cheating a tiny bit, but that value
that you're going to get, you're getting him around to
a round and a half, maybe even two behind. DJ
Moore worried what Burton takes leveland takes what ends up

(38:29):
being of that offense completely and how DJ Moore really
thrives in it. Where I think Worthy is are really
explosive player. I think they really at the end of
the day, they might not be this big of a
difference on ECR. So if I'm the tiebreaker here, I'm
actually going to go on the lower side with Xavier Worthy,
which great to see. Ericson love that you pick that.
So if you're doing some stats here again in the

(38:50):
wide receiver range, we actually had two non favorites wins,
so we went two and one on the lower ranked
player going up. We now have three total in the
who would you rathers that are going lower on the
ECR that you guys have both picked or you know,
I have at least one. At the end of the day,
we're going to go and talk about some quarterbacks and
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Speaker 1 (40:41):
Gentlemen, let's go to some quarterbacks. We are going to
play a quarterback one game and then we're going to
play kind of like a superflex, So the secondary one
is going to be more of a super flex option
deeper quarterbacks versus if you're in that super flex range,
who would you rather? But let's start with not super
high in we're not touching the top five quarterbacks. I've
played around with a couple different scenario, by the way,
as I was like staring at it, a couple different

(41:02):
guys I kind of wanted to touch on if I'm
being specific. It was like a Jalen Hurts versus Joe
Burrow one that was kind of floating out, but you
got a lot more higher ranks there, and they have
a differential of a tier here, but we're gonna jump
to tier three in the QBS, and these guys are
next to each other. This is QB eight and QB nine.
Bo Nicks at QB eight versus Kyler Murray QB nine.

(41:26):
A lot of running up side here. So probably at
the end of the day, the factor between the two
might be what you think you can get out of
the passing game because they're both going to run. But
rich you get to make that decision, who would you
rather at quarterback this year? You're kind of late round
quarterbacking at bo Nicks or Kyler Murray.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
I think I think neither. I think when you look
at your guys's ADP, even at Fantasy pros, both these
guys at cost are are definitely not worth the squeeze,
especially compared to the running backs and wide receivers. I
mean even Mike I have my QB eight in the
in the nineties. That's like where they should be going.

Speaker 1 (41:59):
Well, and you look at the quarter back to lower
I like, I like agree, by the way, because those
like QB eleven twelve, it's ridiculously good value. In particular,
I don't think there's a huge gap this year between
like QB eight and like QB seventeen. Either this is
like a very flat year at QB for non elites
as well. I I think I look to the downside
of both these qbs of paying the iron price for

(42:20):
both of them. Well, one Kyler Murray is like never
made that jump right of like from like just being
like this, this guy didn't give you a floor with
some rushing to be like this full on what we
now call the Konami guys, like the dual threat guys,
because he's just he just hasn't been a good passer
over his career. And I do think some of the
infusion of like the increase too high stuff and making

(42:40):
quarterbacks throw over the middle of the field is hurt
a guy like Kyler, who he's not the biggest dude man,
Like it's there's a reason he doesn't throw over the
middle of the field. And why Marv didn't have all
of those like inbreaking stuff because again, like to quote
Matt Harmon again, the recept reception like Marvel's winning on
those inbreaking routes, he just wasn't getting targeted on those
routes because Kyler either wasn't seeing him or was making
the correct reads on those routes. I mean, he literally

(43:03):
hasn't had a four percent touchdown rate in what the
past four years, so you need like that marriage of
the passing upside. I think he's had a solid floor,
but there's just he hasn't been able to make that jump.
So I don't want to pay the iron price for him.
And then bo Nicks is his ADP is completely baffling
to me, Like this, this guy looks like Denver Tua,

(43:25):
Like when we elevated Tua, everything was manufactured for him
as a rookie. And that's fine when you get him
at QB twenty like where he was going last year,
and you can you can smash, but like now you're
you're paying for him as a top ten quarterback. He
had two games before Week eighteen where he even finished
higher than QB eight and they were completely identifiable spots.

(43:48):
He had eight games before week eighteen and refaced a
pass defense in the front half of the league, and
his average scoring week those weeks was QB eighteen with
a high scoring week of QB ten. Now, Denver, because
they were good and made the jump last year, they
have our twenty sixth ranked passing schedule. They have a
ludicrously more hard passing schedule. We didn't see him punch
up as a rookie as good as it was. Sean

(44:09):
Payton basically said, like, you know, I'm gonna make you
a proxy of what Mike McDaniel did with Tua and
Drew Brees because the pressure stuff with bo Nix is
completely manufactured. He was he was awful under pressure as
a rookie, and what Sean Payton did was like, Hey,
you know how you won't be under pressure. We'll just
have you throw the ball at the line of scrimmage.
Twenty nine percent of his throws were at or behind

(44:30):
the line of scrimmage. Only Patrick Mahomes and two a
tongue of Aelia at higher rates. He had seven passing
touchdowns on throws it didn't even go past the line
of scrimmage. Last year, number one in the NFL. When
he held the ball longer than two and a half seconds,
he completely dipped. He went the twenty first in quarterback rating.
He threw eleven interceptions to fourteen touchdowns, went the twentieth
league and touchdown rate.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
I'd get like, you can say, like there's some floor here.
But I don't want to take a quarterback as a
floor play in this range, Like I'd rather just wait
and take like a Drake May and say like, hey,
he could be what Bonix was last year as a
floor playing maybe off for more upside, maybe a JJ
McCarthy or a guy like that. I can't get on
board of Bonix's ADP.

Speaker 1 (45:09):
I just can't. Okay, So Kyler Murray is the answer
for you. You're locking Kyler Murray.

Speaker 2 (45:15):
You should be taking no I get, I get either
someone else in this rane.

Speaker 4 (45:19):
Well, he's making the point that this is where the
value really does matter significantly, and that taking the middle
range of quarterbacks, they're more likely to finish near the
guys behind them than the guys in.

Speaker 3 (45:30):
Front of them.

Speaker 1 (45:31):
Completely agree, but that's why we have the debate. That's
the But I'm gonna blow your mind here. Four rankers
have him as a top six quarterback with bananas.

Speaker 2 (45:41):
That's absolutely bananas.

Speaker 1 (45:43):
One of them is an analyst. You've mentioned a couple
of times here. The reception is very high for this ranker,
for this quarterback. So we'll now go to you, mister Andrew.

Speaker 2 (45:53):
We saw him play in the playoffs, the offense died
like taking bon Nicks as a top ten quarterback.

Speaker 1 (45:59):
Yell at me, these these are your peers that are
doing this. By the way, the ECR is based on
these rankers. I agree Kyler, Murray and bow Nix. That
makes my stomach turn ericson what's going on with your
stomach with these two guys?

Speaker 3 (46:12):
Can you can you?

Speaker 1 (46:13):
I mean you gotta pick one. That's why we're doing this.
I think everything else feels really good. I think we
all relatively agree. It's like, you want to go elite.
Here's your little grouping of elite. You don't go elite,
live in the later territory because it's like, where's what's
the line truly between like brock Purty at like QB
twelve or thirteen or whatever and bow Nicks. You want
value at the end of the day, so also don't
get stuck on like the overall value. But it is

(46:35):
still very alarming when you see like Murray and Nix
up there. She got to pick one clearly, and which
mean you're gonna do?

Speaker 3 (46:41):
If I have to pick one, I would pick Kyler again.

Speaker 4 (46:44):
I think that we see a higher one. I've seen
Kyle again we've seen Kyler dood and not gonna. He
hasn't really completely taken that next step, but I would
say that he kind of feels like he's on the
hot seat a little bit where he needs to prove
to this coaching staff at hey, like I am, like
the franchise quarterback. I know they already paid him, but
it's still we're wanting more with him. And even came

(47:05):
out and said this obviously thing, I'm gonna run more.
So whether he does it or not remains to be seen.
He has his production always falls off when call of
duty comes out, so that's always something you have to
keep in mind. Because the thing it's interesting when I
looked back at both of these quarterbacks, they had kind
of similar seasons when it comes to their rushing. I
think that they're both viewed as rushing quarterbacks, but when
you go to putting these guys in your lineup week

(47:26):
in and week out, it was really hard to project
the games in which they would actually decide to run,
and a lot of times it was based on game flow.
If the Broncos were playing a more difficult team, like
Riebar said, Bonis would run more, but his passing numbers
would dip, but then when they were playing a bad team,
they would just beat up on that team and Bonis
would have better passing numbers. So I think that to

(47:47):
Rich's point, both of these guys are being propped up,
probably incorrectly. I would say that I did a little
bit more optimistic about Kyler Marvin taking a step in
year two. He has Trey McBride. I think that just
in this offense could see more from Kyler. I think
he could put more on his shoulders where I don't
think Sean Payton necessarily wants to do it, making that
comparison to Tua, where we're not trying to overload our

(48:08):
second year quarterback to have him do everything, Like let's
make it easy for him, and when we're beating up
on a bad team, you know we can run the
ball effectively. We have a really good defense, Like let's
do that. Whereas Arizona they're playing a dome, they're playing
the NFC West, where you could see a lot of
games where it's high paced shootouts. I just see the
environment and season long upside a little bit more. I
can see that picture with Kyler Murray versus a bon

(48:30):
Nix who again, a lot of his biggest numbers and
stats came against really bad teams. He really beat up
on these bad teams Week eighteen against Chiefs backups. That
the ifamous Carolina Panthers game where I remember we were
talking about it on the weekly rankings.

Speaker 3 (48:44):
We're like, bo next top six quarterback, Are we really
doing it this week?

Speaker 2 (48:48):
He wanted DFS money. This week's I'm.

Speaker 4 (48:51):
Great, But it was a lot of the matchups that
were driven. But I know I have a couple of things,
like to point out with Nicks again when it comes
to the inconsistencies when he would run with woldn't run.
He had a thirty one percent bus rate last year.
When it came to how often he would finish inside
the top twelve versus outside the top twenty four thirty
one percent. That was the highest among any quarterback that
finished top ten overall in terms of total points scored.

(49:13):
When it comes to his passer rating from a clean pocket,
it was twenty fourth when it came to intermediate passing.
SO passing at the intermediate level from ten to nineteen
yards downfield ranked forty out of forty three qualifying quarterbacks
per PFF SO there's just enough holes, I think in
expecting him to just take this massive leap going into
year two. And this is something I've kind of talked

(49:34):
about with Actually, I met with Justin, one of our
developers in Boston this a couple of days ago. He's
a Bears fan, and obviously he's always very making the
comparisons to Jayden Daniels and bow Nicks to guys like
Drake Man and Caleb Williams. I think we have to
remember that Caleb Williams and Drake May are significantly younger
than bow Knicks and Jaden Daniels. They didn't play nearly
these many games at the college level as those guys.

(49:57):
So I don't think that we can just project Okay
to take this monster sophomore leap when his rookie situation
was really really good. And maybe I know at least
I undervalued his rookie evaluation where he was with Sean Payton,
how good a fit that was. But I'm not trying
to in an overvalue and double count that into your tour.
Is gonna take this another massive leap where I expect
guys like Caleb and Drake May to take these massive

(50:18):
leaps and would anybody be surprised if Cali Williams and
Drake May outscore bon Nicks now that they're both in
much better situations whereas he's in the same situation it
was last year. Again, it was good, but maybe we
could see more growth from guys like Drake May and
Caleb Williams. So my long winded answer saying I'm gonna
go with Kyler Murray.

Speaker 1 (50:36):
You know, I'm even more happy we talked about This
is probably the only time we're going to talk about
these two guys this entire season, because they are that
range that we don't want to draft. So you guys
did a great job there, But again, a quarterback that
is lower in ECR that you guys both pick right.
One more quarterback. We're living in the super flex range now.
So just the only reason I'm saying this is, you know,
put your super flex hat on. This is like a
QB two when you're picking between these guys young quarterbacks

(51:00):
Michael Pennix, who is the lower of the ranked players
QB twenty four on ECR versus JJ McCarthy at QB
twenty two. This should be some fun. Maybe not exactly
the super flex type of quarterback you would want, but
they technically are ranked in the top twenty four. Maybe
you do rich Michael Pennox or JJ McCarthy, Who would
you rather.

Speaker 2 (51:20):
I know I was against debro On bow Nicks, but
I think I'm going to be on locks up with him.
With JJ McCarthy here, it's really just you know, splitting
kind of the area where these guys go is just
having a lot more faith in you know, Kevin O'Connell
and the top down offensive environment. Not that I think
that the Falcons are necessarily gonna be like a bad offense,
but you know, we saw Michael Penox even in that

(51:41):
run QB thirty, QB twenty five, QB seven and his
three starts as a rookie, like he could get pushed.
I think Michael Penix has some fun Jameis Winston to
him as well, like there could be like where you
just get so much valume. It might not matter, but
I think JJ McCarthy the infrastructure of the Minnesota Vikings
could really lead to him having like a brock perty
Ish type, like like the gap between him and brock

(52:03):
Purty is it could look a lot wider than what
it is because I think that they're both going to
probably have similar passing volume and the McCarthy could have
like he could be like a hyper efficient passer because
everything the Vikings have done this offseason has signaled that
they want to run the football more, not only to
insulate JJ McCarthy, but get a lot of those you know,
high efficiency you know, play action targets with Justin Jefferson
and Jordan Addison and you know TJ. Hockinson, you know,

(52:27):
off of that play action game. I mean, you look
at what they've done this offseason. I mean the first
thing they do is extend Aaron Jones. They signed Will
Fries and Ryan Kelly, they trade for Jordan Mason, they
draft Donovan Jackson in the first round. Yesterday, they just
extended Josh Oliver, the best run blocking tight end in
the NFL. So if JJ McCarthy just has a reduction
of the negative plays that Sam Donald had, because Donald

(52:49):
was for as much as jump he made, he was
a very boomer bust quarterback. I mean, he was third
in the NFL in plays that generated an one whole
epa or more per play, or maybe he's also twenty
fifth in plays that were negative minus one epa or
worse he had he was twenty eighth and sack rate,
he was nineteenth in interception rate, he was thirty second
turnover worthy throw rate. If JJ McCarthy just cleans that

(53:11):
up as an improvement, like the upside for this offense
actually is even higher considering, which seems wild to think
because they were such an overachieving team last year. The
Minnesota Vikings have a top down, really good football team.
I just be betting on the infrastructure. I think they
offer more efficiency based stuff. But if you are just
like saying, like, hey, Penis could run into like six
hundred pass attempts, I don't have a lot of pushback

(53:31):
on that either.

Speaker 1 (53:33):
Erickson, would you say that, Michael Pennix versus JJ McCarthy,
Who would you rather?

Speaker 3 (53:37):
I'm gonna go with McCarthy. I think that's my pick.

Speaker 4 (53:40):
I think just the infrastructure we've seen with this Vikings
offense just be so great for fantasy. I know that
we talked about earlier like Drake London dark horse wide
receiver one overall, Well, Justin Jefferson is not a dark
horse to be wide receiver.

Speaker 3 (53:51):
Well, he's just he's in the conversation. I mean, he's
ranked as a top three receiver for reasons.

Speaker 4 (53:55):
So if he ends up being you know, the wide
receiver one, you know, chances are J mccarth has a
pretty good season. He's got you know again, he has
more weapons to just work with the offensive line. I
feel good about with Minnesota, so and I don't want
to be again. Penis the sample size from last year.
He only played a couple of games, so he's still,
you know, a first time starter, really kind of taking
everything under it, similar to McCarthy.

Speaker 3 (54:16):
So I will go with the VIKINGSQB.

Speaker 1 (54:19):
All right, we've got a tight end. We're gonna do
a couple of quick hitters on some rookies versus vets.
But you guys can take a lot of these debates
and who would you rather? Well, you can literally put
it on the sheets. With the Draft simulator, you can
level up your Fantasy football draft prep by testing all
this stuff out. With Fantasy Pro's mock Draft simulator. You
can complete realistic mock drafts in minutes without waiting between picks.

(54:39):
Tailor your mock drafts to your league specific settings, including
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a competitive edge. You can try out all the different
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it confidently. Dominate your draft with mock Draft simulator at
fantasypros dot com slash mock. We're gonna do one tight

(55:01):
end one. It's gonna be gross. We're in the mud
a little bit. There could be a super easy answer.
But if you're around for our Bold Predictions show, which
you should check out on YouTube, and you heard Pat
Fitzmorris talk, Pat might not completely agree with this one.
All right, preparative feel yucky? Tight End fifteen versus tight
End sixteen. Tyler Warren rookie versus Kyle Pitts, and Tyler

(55:25):
Warren is ranked higher on the ECR. Fool me once, right, Rich,
what do you say?

Speaker 3 (55:29):
Which one of these guys is younger? Is it Kyle Pitts?
It's not right?

Speaker 1 (55:33):
No, I don't think so.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
No, fairly close?

Speaker 3 (55:35):
No, no, man, I think it's pretty close.

Speaker 2 (55:36):
It's pretty close.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
But what say you, Rich, Kyle Pitch? You go down
this route again? Or is it rookie time?

Speaker 2 (55:42):
There's no way you can give me a draft Kyle
Pitts as long as he's on this as long as
he's on this team, because he's not a fit like
the Zach Robinson doghouse them last year, like they I
can't believe he hasn't been traded this offseason. And maybe
it's just because he's on the fifth year option and
the Falcons wanted just a little bit more than what
teams are to pry away from him because over the
final nine games last year he had he had one

(56:04):
hundred and eighty three yards receiving. Charlie Warner played more
snaps than Kyle Pitts because he can run block and
what has the role in this offense always had and
all the drought everyone that's run this scheme like, you
bet you better be able to run block in this scheme.
They asked Kyle Pitts to be that two way player.
Last year he played fifty one percent of his snaps

(56:25):
in line. Last year, his to open his career was
thirty two percent. He had a career low air yards
per target as a default, and Kyle Pitts wasn't able
to generate yardage after the catch with those with those
targets near the line of scrimmage that he wasn't getting
early in his career with Arthur Smith, he was fifty
fifth among all tight ends and yards after the catch

(56:46):
on targets with thin ten yards of the line of scrimmage.
He also just didn't get open. He was forty first
out of forty three qualifying tight ends in ESPN's open score. Like,
he's just he's just not a fit right now. Excuse
have been made based on quarterback play right now being
lost in schemes, But right now, Kyle Pitts is the
common denominator of Kyle Pitts's problems. And maybe that's just

(57:07):
you know, him coming off of the knee injury. Maybe
he'll never be that player. And in the multiverse, somewhere else,
there's a Kyle Pitts that was healthy, landed in a
good offensive environment in his career, took off and it's thriving.
But as long as he's involved in this scheme, I
don't see a lot of outs for him, you know,
you know, paying off. Granted, the price is as cheap
as it's ever been. If you wanted to say, hey, whatever,

(57:28):
I'm throwing that at the wall at like we say,
he'll be twenty five in October We'll be doing this
forever with Kyle Pitts. He's turning twenty five, twenty six,
twenty seven. But he's got to get on a new team, man,
He's got to get a new team.

Speaker 1 (57:40):
If Kyle Pitts has like a top five tight end season,
it might cause an incursion. And we're going to just
have all the different Kyle Pitches battling it out in
the battle world, all right, Erickson, Kyle Pitts or Tyler Warren.

Speaker 4 (57:52):
I'll go Tyler Warren. I agree Kyle Pits needs a
fresh start somewhere. I think he's gonna be great on
the Commanders in twenty twenty eight when he's a he
puts up a second one thousand yard campaign, it's gonna
be great.

Speaker 2 (58:02):
I can't wait for the Chiefs to get him, like
he just replaces Kelsey. This will be super awesome.

Speaker 1 (58:07):
All right, So let's jump. Let's do a couple of
quick hitters here. I've got some rookies versus vets. We've
gone fantastic show gun long, so don't want to sit
two high into these ones. But this is going to
be pure rookie versus Vet. Upside is going to obviously
come into play. Let's start with the running back one here.

Speaker 2 (58:24):
R J.

Speaker 1 (58:24):
Harvey, who is RB twenty seven. There's been a lot
of talk about the moves that that team has been
making as well versus DeAndre Swift who is RB twenty
four and just kind of always rich rookie versus Vet.
You want RJ. Harvey who is three spots lower or
DeAndre Swift twenty four versus twenty seven in the ECR
Rby's I.

Speaker 2 (58:43):
Still lean Harvey and just betting on kind of like
how we did the same argument with Hampton versus Montgomery, right,
like you got kind of more of a boring player
versus a guy that could just offer more upside right
to break the tie. The signing of JK. Dobbins, you know,
didn't necessarily move a ton. I think it has a
lot more to say about obdrict Estima that it necessarily
does R. J. Harvey in terms of you know, capital,

(59:04):
and I never in projections had you know, R. J.
Harvey getting three hundred touches either, So it wasn't like
a big deal. I still had them operating with like
a in the capacity of some type of backfield split.
Even with guys like Estima and selul McLoughlin. I think
Dobbins takes away more from those guys than he necessarily
does Harvey. Harvey also is in that like archetype where
he doesn't necessarily need three hundred touches because he's such

(59:25):
an explosive player. Like giving him, you know, two hundred
to two and twenty five touches could be significant, like
in the Like we've seen that archetype running back get
a bigger fantasy boost in recent years, you know, at
the Devin h Chands. And we talked about Jamier Gibbs earlier,
so I still lean towards uh, you know, r J. Harvey.
DeAndre Swift is doing a little neo and the matrix
to softis now like he's dodging all the bullets like

(59:47):
it's it's he's getting this pure runout as you can
hope for if you're in the DeAndre Swift camp.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
Well Erickson, Swift is three spots higher in ECR over Harvey.
So shining new toy or I guess kind of what
we've known before Swift or Harvey.

Speaker 4 (01:00:00):
I will take the shiny new toy with Rjie Harvey
as well. I talked about it on a show I
think last week where I put DeAndre Swift as slightly overvalued,
and it just I don't think that the upside case
is there for him.

Speaker 3 (01:00:11):
Every year of his career.

Speaker 4 (01:00:12):
You look, the best finish he's been is basically that
RB two and I think Reeves has talked about it.
RB two production is the easiest to replace, so.

Speaker 3 (01:00:21):
You can get, I can just get.

Speaker 4 (01:00:23):
I'll roll with Javonte Williams for a little bit and
he'll probably do seventy five percent of what DeAndre Swift
does in the Bears offense. But then if I draft
Harvey oh Man, this guy could end up being what
if he is Kamara in Sean Payton's offense, Again, not
saying that's going to necessarily happen, but putting it within
the range of outcomes. I know that's not gonna happen
for de Andre Swift most likely, So I will take
the upside shot with RJ, not knowing that I can

(01:00:44):
backfill RB two production in case, okay, it starts out
more as a committee, I can't rely on Harvey to
open the year.

Speaker 3 (01:00:50):
We know JK.

Speaker 4 (01:00:50):
Dobbins isn't made for the long term. We know that
he's probably going to be most productive to start the year,
but then Harvey's gonna be the guy to lean on
down the stretch.

Speaker 1 (01:00:58):
There you go, there's some their last one wide receiver.
I struggled and who to put Travis Hunter up against
Travis Hunter ECR thirty five at wide receiver. I'll just
be frank about it. I told Rich about this. There
was one point where I threw Chris Godwin in there.
Who's ECR twenty nine. You know, there's an injury thing
that's floating out there, but like Godwin is Godwin, and

(01:01:19):
I switch it up to Deebo Samuel, who is lower
than Travis Hunter, which I don't think really helps the argument.
But you've got some stuff going on with McLaurin. You
obviously know the touchdown equity of Deebo Samuel, so I'm
not trying to necessarily throw both out there. But Rich,
if you want to answer it, Travis Hunter versus the
higher Chris Godwin the lower Deebo Samuel, who and does
he beat either one.

Speaker 3 (01:01:39):
Of these guys?

Speaker 2 (01:01:41):
Yeah, I would probably take a bet on Travis Hunter
versus Deebo Samuel for sure, maybe even Chris Godwin. As
we go into the hood here. But I think Deebo
Damiel is a great real addition to the Washington Commanders.
I don't necessarily think he's a great fantasy addition. I
mean I think that the target share is going to
be largely played. I don't think people realize that, Like
Terry McLaurin didn't even have like an elite target share

(01:02:01):
last year, Like he was in the low twenty to
twenty three percent range, Like he was one of these
guys pushing twenty five to thirty percent. So the addition
of Deebo Samuel is definitely pulled a little bit on that.
You know, assuming they get this contractual. You know, skis
him worked out over the summer, most of these things
usually do. By the time we roll around to like
August drafts, Deebo hasn't played a full He's played one
full season of his career. It's it's just really hard

(01:02:24):
to say, like Deebo offers a lot of upside. He's
got one season that had like a massive touchdown spike,
and that was the year he was like fantasy relevant.
So if you run hot with touchdowns, maybe you get there.
But that we've seen that that's an outlier. Year for
Deebo Samuel. I do have some questions about Chris Godwin too,
just with the Liam Cohen change, because the paired with
the injury, paired with the AMC Buka addition, do we
see Chris gott don't have to play more outside we

(01:02:47):
saw him have last year, just get peppered with screen
targets right, five point seven area yards for target, the
lowest rate of his career. He had a one point
six percent target share on route throws twenty yards a
further downfield by far the lowest rates career, sixteen percent
screen rate. Well, guess who's got his offensive coordinator? Now?
You know? You know Travis Hunter. And Travis Hunter is

(01:03:08):
a guy who already had some of that screen stuff
built in at Colorado. He also won downfield as well.
And also I've my thing with Travis Hunter is I've
just been not wanting to place limits on him. Just
because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't happen. And
it's funny that like we've seen like shoe a Otani, right,
I know that's putting like a making a lofty comparison
to saying could he be like Otani? Like in the NFL.

(01:03:28):
But I go back to Daniel Jeremiah as Pro Day
and he was like, this guy is running nothing but
like deep ins and go routes and as pro Day
and then they ask him to flip over and play
defense and they're like he's not even sweating. Like it's
like he just might be just not human, Like he's
just like operating at a different level. It's like, I
just don't want to cap what we what Travis Hunter

(01:03:49):
can be because we haven't seen it before. What if
he is a guy that can play two ways? You know,
what if he is able to translate that to the NFL.
So I've just not been wanting to catch He's an
exciting pick. Travis Hunter is fun man, Like, I've already
drafted good receivers. If I'm taking Travis Hunter here, I've
already drafted good receivers on my team. I'm gonna have
some fun. I don't want to take a boring guy.

Speaker 1 (01:04:08):
That's a really good way to put it, too, because
the idea of of vets, you know, it's a little
bit tougher when you go like higher end on players
like maybe in like the you know, the the Hampton
versus Montgomery one's a little bit trickier maybe, but you
know this is like you've already gotten a core piece,
so ericson the same thing. I'm gonna just throw both
that you hear. Godwin was the original pick rank quite
a bit higher. Deebo's a little bit lower, but you

(01:04:29):
know there's the McLaurin stuff that's floating out their potential
equity in that offense. Travis Hunter, does he take both
of these for you because he has more fun?

Speaker 4 (01:04:38):
Yes, I'm going to take the guy that's more fun
and not the guys that are past their prime. Right,
it's so clear that Chris Cobin's probably not going to
do we did last year. Deebo's hopeful, I mean, you're
hoping to doesn't do it we did last year because
he was terrible last year. But these guys have been
banged up. They're not the number ones on their respective teams.
Not to say that Travis Hunter is, but I just
think that Cohen coming from originally from the rams where

(01:05:01):
you just see these concentrated target shaars and Travis Hunter. Yeah,
I don't know exactly how they will deplay them on offense,
but I know for sure when we look at the
end of the year, who has a really high target
rate per route run. Travis Hunter is going to be
inside the top ten because when he's on the field,
he's gonna get targets. Whether but to the extent of
what that turns into fantasy production and actual volume, it
remains to be seen. But he's gonna be targeted at

(01:05:22):
a high rate when he is actually playing on the offense.
So I'm gonna take the fun pick here as well
and go with Travis Hunter.

Speaker 2 (01:05:27):
And the Jaguars are just probably not in a position
to rebottle Travis Hunter, right Like Saya plans only give
him like a sixty five percent route share to open
up who else on this route outside of Brian Thomas Junior. Like,
are they leaning on in the pass game? I don't.
I don't think if like Travis Hunter is operating at
like a sixty percent route rate and he's a productive
player in their offense, they can't afford to take that

(01:05:48):
off the field because you know you've got Diami Brown,
Parker Washington. You're hoping Brenton Strange makes a step forward, right,
Like he's just a better football player than this game.

Speaker 4 (01:05:57):
The fans will ride because These are the same fans
I believe didn't show up wearing the clown outfits the
Jaguars fans because of a balky the old GM. So
they're gonna riot if they're like, put Travis on.

Speaker 3 (01:06:09):
Offense, get him off defense.

Speaker 1 (01:06:11):
Well, we want to hear from you guys of all
the ones we talked about. Who are the guys that
you're picking? And if you've also got some wo'd you
rather debate, you can drop them in the comments below
and we can all jump in and we can have
some bigger conversations about more players which we would love
to have. We love having Rich Rich Rebar. You can
check them over at Sharp Football and Analysis. Lord Reeves,
you can check him out on Twitter, make sure to

(01:06:33):
follow him there. Ericson all across Fantasy Pros, and we
got draft guides coming out the podcast you can find
me is it the Welsh, and you can check out
all the ranks over at fantasypros dot com slash Rankings.
Make sure to lock in on the apps and the
website because we got tons and tons of content as
draft season continues to move on. Thank you guys so
much for hanging out with us right here on the
Fantasy Football Podcast and we will talk to you next time.

Speaker 5 (01:06:54):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.

Speaker 2 (01:06:58):
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Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Would You Rather: Which Fantasy Football Players Would You Take in 2025? (Ep. 1590)