August 22, 2023 • 44 mins
UFC heads to Singapore this weekend for some early morning violence on our side of the world!
Headlined by former Featherweight champ, Max Holloway is back in the octagon facing former title challenger The Korean Zombie, Chan-Sung Jung!
Let's get you all the fight analysis and break downs you need to make your bets before the fights kick off on Saturday!
Dave Ross is joined this week by Lou Finocchiaro, Reed Kuhn, Dan Vreeland, and Zayd Hussein!
You can also WATCH the show on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/DOYV-pA5ZCM
And make sure to check out VSiN.com for 24/7 sports betting content!
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
He welcome to First Strike here on vison. I'm your
hos Dave Ross here at certain sportsbook in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
Before we get to Singapore for this week and early
start for everybody back here stateside. It's going to be
Max Halaway against the Korean Zombie in the main event.
I do want to put a bone what we saw
at UFC two ninety two, and oh my goodness, we
saw a changing of the guard in the bantamweight division
(00:36):
and knew the Sugar Show it's real. At least it
was real last Saturday night, second out, second round knockout
of the former champ allister al Jamaine Sterling. Rather and
in the coming event, way Lee Jang absolutely a demolition
of aman A Limo as she wins a unanimous five
round decision. But you look at al Jamaine Sterling now
does he get the immediate rematch against the Sugar Show?
(00:59):
Will he fight she Vera. That's the only lost that
Sean Amelly has had so far in his brief UFC career.
We will find out what is next in the bantamweight division.
Without further ado, Let's bring in loop for the Carrol.
You can follow you as I do at Gamblu, the
host of about Business podcast Lou I Gotta be honest
a book. I thought al Joe might be able to
wrestle a little bit. That didn't happen. The timing of
the Sugar Show was for real, whether or not we
(01:20):
thought he was maybe earn that title, shout, she is
now the champ. What is your biggest takeaway from last
Saturday Night?
Speaker 2 (01:28):
My biggest takeaway was that I did have the Sterling side.
I want to disclose me too, But my biggest takeaway
was disappointment in myself because Sterling was telling he was
vomiting tell at the stairdowns, and o'melly's cool demeanor made
(01:48):
me very very worried at that point, and he approached
it calm, cool and collected. Uh, he's a viper. He
earned everything that he's now going to be projected into.
To me, it'll be interesting to see. Does the UFC
treat them like they like they treated Usman and put
(02:10):
Sterling right back on him the toughest test, or do
they manipulate this and give them vera still will sell
and it allows them to permeate their superstar another fight longer.
In my view, if Sterling asked for the rematch, he
should be absolutely granted.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Yeah, we were talking about maybe the greatest manding weight
of all time until Saturday night. You would think that'd
be enough of a body of work to get that
rematch against the Sugar Show. We'll find out what Dana
White and company decide to do when you get to
Singapore for this week. Right, we're gonna get up early, Louis.
That does a long clock a little bit earlier for
us here state side, and you do have the return
of Max Alway against the Korean Zombie. And again you
(02:51):
look at the number, my goodness, and again we were
talking about Max at one time is the greatest featherweight
of all time until Alexander Volkonowski and those fights happen. Now, wow,
he's going to lay eight fifty. Here's the amazing part.
You think of Max and you think he's got to
be north of you know, pushing forty. He's only I
put in air quotes thirty one the boys. He'd been
around the block. And then you look at the Green Zombie.
(03:11):
He is five years his senior at thirty six, does
have the reach advantage here we know it can be
wild at times with the Grand Zombie. What do you
make of this main event potentially going all five.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Well, I think honestly that in their zeal to appeal
to that sector of the hemisphere, which is exactly what
they're doing, they needed a headliner that was going to
catch eyeballs and create hype, and unfortunately, when they put
on forty four forty five shows a year, that gets
really tough to do. So the Zombie fits perfect because
(03:47):
he has that attraction to that edge of the world,
and Max ships in. It's perfectly marketable. The Zombie was
calling for Max, but everywhere you look at it, this
is a mismat The Zombie is a reputable, honest, great
guy that lost the prime of his career because he
went to serve in Korea's misitary So as a human being,
(04:10):
the guy as solid as a rock. But as a fighter,
he's thirty six. He's given a height and size, and
surely Max has been in with the elite of the division.
And yes, Max once was considered the go to the featherweights,
but without Volkanowski, Max is untouchable still, and I believe
at thirty one he's not ready to step aside for anyone.
(04:33):
This is a fight where I'm going to look elsewhere
on the card.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Yeah, it is amazing too. And you look at the
height and weight here. Obviously weight's going to be equal here,
but the three inch reach advantage. Yet he's four inches shorter.
We saw that with Algemy's throwing last week. Four inches
shorter than the Sugar Show, yet only one inch discrepancy
in the reach. So very interesting body types there. But
it does feel like Max has a lot of advantages,
so we'll look for other ways to attack this card.
(04:57):
I do want to get to one fight. I'm almost
surprised it's the comine event and I know it's one
that you've got your eye on and I do too,
And that's Aaron Blanchfield against Taya Santos. And you can
make the argument here with these two women with their
ascent right now, and you look at Blanchfield on a
Tuesday small favorite about a dollar thirty five, what do
you make of this flyweight matchup? Because it feels like
(05:18):
right now in the in the flyway division, these two
women are gonna maybe the winner says I'm next for
the title shot.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Boy, I couldn't agree with that statement more. Here's Santos,
who is a violent striking woman, but she really she's
wide telegraphing and comes in shin first because she has
no real ambition to strike. She wants to wrap you up,
get you down. And she rag dowd Championship Chenko in
(05:48):
her last fight, and from that fight, she looked that
was as good a fight as she could possibly have
put on. And I think that could be affecting people
to some degree. Now Santos is the older woman, but
only thirty, so she's in her prime. It really I
can see how people would think that the wrong person
is favored here. Blanchefield's younger, less experienced. However, I think
(06:12):
if Blanchefield can manage this fight into the second keep
it on its feet, the more it's on its feet,
the more it favors Blanchefield. I think I would be
surprised at Blanchefield decides to go down with Santos early.
But there's a reason Blanchefield is favored here. I think
though she's shorter, she's going to be the heavier, stockier woman,
(06:36):
and I think she's the woman that if she can
get it into the second round, she can do a
little bit what wy Lee did last week. To Leamosh
and that is begin to dominate on her cardio.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
That was the biggest surprise to me, going back to
that fight you're referencing with Leigley Jiang, the domination on
the mat. When you see these prop numbers here and again,
it's duced heavily to the over at minus two sixty
over two and a half browns here, lou So, the
bookmakers are telling you, hey, we believe this thing's hitting
the cards. If it goes the distance, you got to
lay almost three to one minus two seventy five. Right now.
(07:08):
Do you see finishing potential here? Because if it's a firefight,
as you mentioned, and they stay standing, those Ko prop
numbers are pretty juicy. Twelve to one on the blanching inside,
nine to one on the Santo side.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
A great question I can't answer. Here's what I want.
I want to see him roll. That's what I want
to see. Here's what I think when two great grapplers
get together, they stare at each other in the mirror,
and this is a stand up fight. I'll lean blanchefield
decision in that manner. That's how I look at it
at this early stage of the week.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
I love it. It takes me back to say Kolby
Covington against Tomorrow Usman in their fights, where these two
great wrestlers, and yet they were turned out to be
striking battles because they didn't want to get down on
the ground. In exchange, in the co main event, here
we get Superman Span Ryan Spam back in there against
the Lionhard Anthony Smith. A very evenly aligned fight. We're
seeing here Ryan SPAN's small favorite right now on a
(07:59):
Tuesday Monstarar twenty two. These two guys are clearly veterans
in the light heavyweight division. We know the power of Span.
Does that mean that if you're lying Hart, you don't
want to bang it out here with Ryan? You want
to take this thing down to the ground. How do
you see this Comaine going?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Yeah? I see it as really one of the better
fights on the car. Now it is a rematch. Smith
won the first one, so now they spin it back again.
But the circumstances are different. Smith hobbles in off a
couple of losses where he hasn't looked terrific, albeit against
dynamic opponents. Span meanwhile, it has really tried to overcome
(08:37):
a very uneven career and to me, I'm not even
seeing totals yet. I'd love to know the total in
this fight. If it's two and a half, we can get.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
You one and a half right now. One and a
half is juiced, you can get plus money. Now. If
you think he goes seven and a half plus, that
is plus dollar fifty. The under right now is these
are just coming out fresh off the presses loose we're
putting you know, that immediate reaction that you get to
at the under right now heavily juiced at minus an
hour eighty, So they're not expecting it to go along
into that Singapore morning for us.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Hey, yeah, they aren't. And I was hoping for two
and a half because I think I want to like
Smith in this fight. I think he's a little undervalued
and perhaps Span overvalued at this perspective on a Tuesday.
We'll have to wait and see what transpires. But Span
has more momentum and Smith has to prove that he
(09:30):
still belongs. So there's a lot of questions will be
answered with this one.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Well, maybe the fight that I'm most intrigued by, it's
Giga Chakatse getting back in there against Bruce Lee. Roy
Now is Caseras and the reason why I'm so intrue
two fighters I've backed in the past and cashed a
lot right back in the days, and they are dogs.
And we haven't seen Gigan almost what two plus or
two years here, right, And we've seen fighters like Chris
Wyman last week come off a three year layoff. I
(09:56):
did not think he looked necessarily sharp. I'm not saying
that's going to be the same thing for Giga, but
he is now a two forty five favorite against a
guy in aus Casarus who feels like he's hitting his
stride at thirty five. What do you see here?
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (10:09):
I see the layoffer Chikazi, and the layoff came after
he was completely had the brakes beat off of him
by Calvin Cater in a standing war. And Chikazi showed
his medal, but I wonder what he lost anyway, he
takes plenty of time off. Meanwhile, Cassaris has had two
grappling matches won against Pat Sabatteini and three fights where
(10:32):
he's looked impressive since we've seen Chikazi. So the busier
man's Casaris. This fight opens Chikazi minus one seventy five.
He's been steamed and I love that because it's creating
great value on Casarus, who I'm now seeing plus two hundred.
I can't really anticipate any trouble on the scale from Alex.
(10:56):
I don't know about Chikazi, but at two to one
on Alex is a bye for me and I would
buy that now.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
I got about forty five seconds to go. Will tell
the people about the About Business podcast what they get
each in every Friday.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
They get great advice on how to bet these UFC fights.
We take creative approaches to profit. We're up about twenty
units on the year and we'll drop sometime Friday early
morning based on the obtuse hours by which this thing
is going on.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Great use of obtuse, I mean, it's just a fit.
Takes me back to Shawshank Redemption. There is everybody who's
been to Carol, the one and only, always appreciate his
insight each in every week, just get it started to
come on back. It is first strike your own vs.
In the sports betting network, Draft Kings, Sportswook gives you
(12:08):
many ways to bet the UFC, not just the main event.
They've got fight lines on total rounds and MMA features
in props galore, So just download the DraftKings Sportsbook app today.
Back here on First Strike, Dave Ross in Las Vegas.
Let's go back out to the great city of Chicago.
Enjoyed Zaid Hussein, who joins us for the first time
(12:29):
on First Strike. Zaid, great to have you on. Do
great work at WCRX in Chicago and of course at
props US. You can follow him as I do as
Zaida underscore Hussein on Twitter or x whatever they're calling
it now. Zaid, Hey, great to have you on, my friend.
Let me get right to one of the fights that
I'm most intrigued by on this card, and I think
you have a similar fascination with the Aaron Blanchfield against
(12:50):
Taya Santo's fight, because I look at these two women here, Zaid,
and I said, these are two women that could easily
stake their claim to a title shot. Whatever is going
to happen with a Lexa Grosso in the rematch against
the bullet Chefchenko. What do you make of this which
could be a very intriguing flyweight bound.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Yeah, one hundred percent, and thank you for having me on.
I think this is one of the most fascinating fights
honestly of the year. You look at what Blanchfield has done,
you know, in the division, just running through her opponents,
and then Santos on the flip side, you know, against
chef Chenko with a great, great performance, Some say she
arguably won that fight. I think Blanchfield is the wrong
side here, and I see a lot of people on
(13:28):
that side.
Speaker 5 (13:29):
While she's run.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
Through everybody in the division, you know, she hasn't really
fought in people that can, you know, defend a takedown
like a Santos can and who's skilled enough on the
ground to be able to fight off those takedowns and
fight off of her back as well. I think Santos
at plus one twenty five is one of the better bets,
and it's been hit by a lot of sharps in.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Vegas for example. I think when when you.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
Look at Santos against Chefchenko and how she was able
to defend off those hip tosses and take her down
and take her back, and then look at what she's
done on the striking side as well, She's gonna get
Blanchfield a lot of problems on the feet, and I
think Blansfield will struggle to get that takedown and I
think Santos will pick her apart from range.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Zay, do you look at it and say, okay, right now,
it's heavily to the over right, and we see that
minus two sixty for two and a half rounds. This
is just potentially a three round match up here that
when you do have I'm going to be fascinating to
see them go down to the ground with just that
glue for the Carolin. He's talked about how much he'd
like to see this fight hit the ground. Do you
think it neutralizes each other? And that's why maybe Santo's
with the hands, you give her the advantage if it
(14:27):
does stay standing.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I think this does stay standing, and if it doesn't
the ground, Blanchfield is not going to be able to
do what she's done to you know, past opponents like
a Molly McCann or just John Drodge. Overall, I think
Santos has the cleaner boxing Blanfield tends to when she
throws strikes, you know, she doesn't take her head off
the center line, and I think she's gonna get clipped
in this fight, and we saw it in her most
recent outing, but it hasn't really been exposed as much
(14:51):
because she's been so dominant on the ground and being
able to take her opponents down. I think that's not
the case on Saturday. And I really like the Santo
side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
That normal when you look at age, right, and normally
you want to be on this side of youth, right.
And so Blansfield here is twenty four, but Santos is thirty,
which could be hitting maybe her mma prime here. Do
you actually look at it as an advantage because maybe, yes,
Blansfield feels like the next and she's got a lot
of fight left in her at twenty four, who knows
what her career is going to look like. Is this
(15:20):
too much too soon for her against a more experienced
Santo's at this spot?
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Yeah, I think you hit it on the head. I
think while Blansfield is elite on the ground and heads
that wrestling advantage, I just think it's a really really
bad match for her. You know, I consider Chef Chinkle
to be, you know, even though she's coming off that loss,
the best fighter in the division, and what Santos was
able to do is really eye opening. And then you
look at the Blanchfield side, it's just she hasn't foughten
that top top, top level yet and I think she's
(15:47):
gonna be doing it this weekend and she's gonna get exposed.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Said, if we get somebody with a dynamic finish like
we saw in the main event at UF two two
ninety two, maybe that woman then say all right, I'm waiting,
and whoever wins in the rematch across a chef Chenko,
I am next cannot wait to see that fight early
in the morning in Singapore. Let's get to the main
event here and again, when you have a fight line
the way it is with Max Alway eight fifty betting
(16:10):
favored over the Korean Zombie, maybe there's other ways to
attack it, right, And I get it everything you look
at all the metrics, it's gonna favor Max Halloway. But
you know, Max, even though he's thirty one and five
years the junior of the Korean Zombie here, he's been
on a lot of wars in his UFC days, and
so is the Kreen Zombie. Is there any trepidation of
(16:30):
I know people are gonna put Max in a lot
of parlays here this week? How do you attack this
main event when you see a number like this?
Speaker 4 (16:37):
You know, for me, I think The biggest thing to
do when attacking this main event is to look at
late pops for Holloway. I mean we see Korean Zombie
obviously three and three in his leis six fights.
Speaker 5 (16:47):
On his way out.
Speaker 4 (16:48):
You know, it was really tough to watch that last
fight against Bolkanowski, who just really picked apart. I think
this is a similar type of fight. And for people
that think Max Halloway is a type of fighter that's
slowing down, I mean, look what you just did to
Arnold Allen. He went out there a young up and
coming prospect, was really legit. I like Hallowey late. I
don't think he has the power to put him out early.
So if I'm gonna attack this fight, I'm taking Halloway
(17:09):
props very late.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
So maybe maybe a fourth or fifth round finish is
what you might look at. Yes, okay, So again you're
you're right. I mean, you look at this here at
Max Hollaway, and what's interesting here, say it is you
look at the total rounds for the props. Two and
a half right now is juice heavily to the over.
So I think you're weaning that way at minus two
forty five. But if you want to look at Max
inside the distance, you might be able to get that
(17:33):
here at a dollar seventy today. Is that's a way
that you can shorten that price tag. Then you don't
have to worry about necessary whether or not it's gonna
happen inside of two and a half rounds. You can
just take that car blanche over five. Do you like
that prop better?
Speaker 4 (17:46):
I do one hundred percent. And I think this is
kind of a statement fight for Halloween. It's it's just
last really run at the title. So if he's looking
to make a statement and say, hey, I want to
challenge for the belt again, he has to put the
Korean zombie away, and I think he does do that Saturday.
I think he looks to make that he's gonna outclass
him on the feet, and you know, it's just it's
sad to say, but like zombies on his way out
at thirty six years old, you know, Hollowe is still
(18:07):
able toe with the top of the class. And I
think you have to play that plus one seventy price
tag and that's the best way to go.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Yeah, there it is. I'm with you there. If Max
is gonna get back in there for one more shot,
whether it's Kins Vulk or whomever. This is the type
of fight he probably just doesn't want to win by
decision something. He didn't want to get a stoppage and
really put on a show to say remember me. I
don't think anybody's forgotten him in the co main event. Here,
you look at the Lioneheart Smith against Superman Span and
this is a rematch now, and we know that Anthony
(18:35):
got the better of Ryan the first time around, and
yet he's gonna find himself as a small dog here
plus a dollar two as we talk on a Tuesday here,
what do you make of the komaan here?
Speaker 4 (18:46):
You know, for me, I'm looking at if you're playing
either side, it's gonna come inside the distance.
Speaker 5 (18:51):
And you know you mentioned this is a rematch.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
The first time these guys fought UFC Vegas, I believe
thirty seven it.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
Was a slug fest, absolute slug fest.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Both fighters are age and kind of almost on their
way out as well.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
I mean Span, Span has shown life, but this.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
Is kind of their last shot in the UFC to
make a statement and make a kind of run.
Speaker 5 (19:07):
Both coming off losses.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I think Smith is aside with the cleaner boxing like
we saw in the previous fight, and Span kind of
has that power that's you know, he could put your
lights out. But overall, if you're playing either side, I
like it to I'm by knockout. I think you know
Span lost by submission last time. But overall he was
getting hurt on the feet. They both hurt each other
on the feet. I'm playing Unders as well here. I
(19:31):
know it's probably Juice, but I like Unders and that
There's no way this fight was a distance for me.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
There it is. It's at one and a half right now.
Juice heavily to that under say it to your point
Mons a dollar eighty here inside of a round and
a half in that comin event, I got to ask
you a fight that I'm really intrigued by, and it's
again two fighters that have been profitable for me in
the last couple of years. That'ski get Chakatse back after
almost a two year layoff here against Bruce Leebroy, and
(19:57):
now it's Casarras and Casarras you know early on as
days and I kind of looked at him as almost
like a novelty fighter. Not anymore. I mean, if we
are not taking Alex Casarra seriously I think we're kind
of not valuating what he's done to be a real
well rounded mixed martial artist. Ji katse It was really
shining into that Calvin Cator fight, and now off the layoff,
(20:18):
he's a two forty five favorite. Is there danger in
this fight for Giga against Alex?
Speaker 5 (20:23):
You know, I don't think there's tons of danger.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
I just don't see a lot of value on the
Giga side, Like you're gonna lay a minus two forty
it's kind of hard to justify because of like you know,
you mentioned, he hasn't fought.
Speaker 5 (20:33):
Since twenty twenty two. I think the beginning of twenty are.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
Since coming off a long layoff, Gigot was on I
believe a seven fight win Street coming into that Calvin
Cator fight, which which he lost, and overall, I think
he is the cleaner striker in the and it's priced
about right. I just don't I don't like laying a
minus two forty five here. I think he probably wins
a decision and out classes him on the feet, but
I don't see him getting a finish here, and I
(20:56):
don't really justify laying the price tag of minus two
forty five.
Speaker 1 (20:59):
So if you don't if you think that this is
going to hit the cards, okay for the fight to
go the distance. By the way, it is a minus
dollars seventy right now. Would you look at Giga here
via decision, you can get that at even money if
you don't want to lay that big time price tag.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Yeah, yeah, I think that's worth the play Giga even money.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
But overall, I wouldn't.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Be surprised if Giga put him away too. You know,
he has that insane liver kick that he's put a
lot of fighters away with. I think he could make
a statement. Overall, this isn't just a pass for me.
I think this is a really exciting fight. Bold fighters
kind of have question marks coming in with the layoff,
and I'm not interested in laying by his two forty
five here.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yeah, And by the way, that's good advice as well.
If you're not don't see a line whether it's you
want to go for a profit or a decision and
you can just pass. That's an easy way to go
as well. I want to ask you about any other
fight on the card that you might like, but really,
Junior Tafa against Parker Porter, and sometimes you look at
these kind of plotting heavyweights sometimes and you go, all right, well,
this one's not going to go the distance. What do
(21:57):
you make of the heavies here? Do you think that
we're finally going to see elates be heavyweights? And these
guys aren't necessarily known for their one punch knockout power.
But Tapa right now is a small favorite of Masdar
fifty five as we talk on a Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
Yeah, and and the fun fact is Tapa's older brother
actually finished Park Reporter a couple of fights ago, so
you know there's maybe he has a little bit of
inside information for himself to you know, get the victory.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
But this is a price tag.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
I think it should be price closer to I pick
on Park Reporter and Tafah both. You know, I would
say Porter leans with the experience, but both fighters kind
of have similar pet to be similar fight style. They're
both going to be boxing, and I think this goes under.
I think Tapa is probably the FO striker overall. I
would mean Tapa maybe, but I wouldn't lay that.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Head said, really appreciate you joining us here on First Strike.
When we come back, We're going to Washington, DC. Ridcoup
next to here on first right, start your morning with
(23:11):
Vson Daily Morning Bets. Josh Applebaum gives you every piece
of info you need to be ready for betting the
day's biggest games in just fifteen minutes. He discusses my
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(23:33):
out what my man read Coon is telling me before
we get to the fights each and every week, and
you should always follow read as I do. At fight
Nomics puts out some good nuggets like He's already done
this week before we get to this card in Singapore
and read, uh, what is your alarm clock gonna do
for Friday night Saturday morning? How in the world are
you gonna prepare for this mentally and physically?
Speaker 3 (23:54):
He at least I'm on the East Coast, so it's
not quite as bad as you guys, I remember being.
And occasionally there were nights where I found myself waking
up looking at my phone see if there were some results.
Coming in, But no, I'll probably wait till the main card.
I might get up early, make it a productive Saturday.
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Yeah, it's gonna be early again. What is it two
thirty in the morning Britain? Is that correct?
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Two thirty in the morning here in Vegas for the
start of this card. I'm terrible with time differences anyway,
So this is going to be really dicey for yours
truly lead read it. Let's get to the main event
of said card. And again we're not in the business
lay in eight fifty favorites like Max Hollway is against
the Korean zombie in this one. But I get do
the numbers support it? Because sometimes you'll tell me, and
(24:36):
I think it's very interesting. Most people going to go,
there's no way I'm gonna get involved in a price
tag like that. But sometimes you can even find value.
I don't know if you do in this case where
you say, yeah, the numbers do support it, maybe he
should be even a bigger favorite.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah, basically the numbers do support him as a huge favorite.
But you're right, there's not a lot of value in
just betting him straight up. You got to really throw
a lot of your bank roll just to win a little,
So that doesn't make sense. I think obviously I people
are going to be using him as a parlay leg,
maybe looking for props. If you have a finishing angle
for me. It's tough because I line these guys up.
(25:12):
The matchup doesn't really make sense other than maybe out
of respect, I guess if the Korean Zombie asked for this.
But if you look at his trajectory over the last
few years, really he had this very long layoff when
he was in the military. In the last ten years,
he's only four and three and two of those four
wins came against people who aren't even in the UFC anymore.
So you got to ask yourself, what is he doing
(25:33):
in the cage with one of the greats of all
time at featherweight, Max Holloway and also the dynamics Chance
Ung Jung. Will get into a punching war, and he's
called the zombie because he keeps coming forward and eating punches.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Well.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Max Holloway is one of those guys who will dish
you punches over and over. He will pile up damage.
Not exactly a one hit or quitter type fighter, but
he will accumulate damage, and I do think a finish
as possible. I just don't want to play too cute
with the over unders. So it could be a situation
where you make a single game parlay, you know, Max Holloway,
(26:07):
and an over one point five makes it a little
bit more reasonable, but still it's it's gonna be one
of these chalky parlay type fights.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
You know, because read I the Brian Ortega fight is
the type of fight that you're describing that comes to
mind for me right where he just it was. It
was ugly if you're on the Ortega side that night,
right the beating that Max Howway can put on you.
And outside of Alexander Volkonowsky, you made the point, this
might be the greatest featherweight that we've ever seen if
alex Volkanovski didn't exist. So is there anything that the
(26:35):
numbers show you that the Koreans like, for those are
gonna say, I want to take a shot on this
dog because it's too big a price. What would be
the method of victory there? Is it just a wild
elbow something we can't see because he can be a
little reckless in times inside the octagon.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
I think there is a point in a standard MMA
line with two competent UFC caliber fighters that you just
don't lay the juice because what about to hit an injury?
What about the situation back home with Max Holloway, is
his head in the right place suffering a natural disaster
back there? You don't know if he trips on the
way in or if he had a bad weight cut,
got sick the night before. This is overseas, This is
(27:13):
an unusual fight environment for him. There's lots of things
that happen in MMA that can actually change Yakama on
a fight, but we don't have visibility into that. So
looking purely at the numbers, yes, he should be a
runaway favorite here. The only angle for victory where you
could argue Korean zombie is with a submission. He does
have a good submission arsenal. He's one of the few
guys ever to pull off a twister, and that was
(27:34):
against Dustin Poier in Virginia, by the way, I was
at that fight, and so yeah, he does have that
angle to victory. But Max Holloway, this is not going
to be the first opponent who would rather take Max
Holloway down. He has excellent takedown defense. He finds the fight,
he finds a way to keep the fight on the feet,
and he just crushes people over and over and he'll
even tell you how to do better mid fight, like
(27:55):
he did against Brian Ratiga. So that's why I just
got a back halloway here all the way. But if
you're really looking for that lottery ticket, maybe it's Korean
Zombie by submission.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Sixteen to one. If you think the Zombie can get
it down to the Grebel. What a great recall you
had there back in Virginia, going back to that one
against the Diamond Dustin Employer. Okay, one fight that I'm
really intrigued by, and I've been looking at it all
week on. You know, Giga Chakats. We haven't seen him
in forever, and I alluded to your tweets and you
put out there some of these guys that we just
haven't seen inside the octagon in a long long time.
(28:25):
He would be the longest for in activity before this
fight in Singapore, and yet here he is a two
forty five favorite over guy in Bruce Lebroy, who if
you didn't take him seriously earlier in his zm MMA career,
maybe you do now because he's looked like he's rounding
in the form. Even at thirty five. Are the numbers
still supporting Giga here as a big almost two fifty
(28:45):
betting favorite, do.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
But we're not seeing a lot of value and so yeah,
I think Giga takes this, you know, the majority of
the time, two out of three, three on four, but
that's also where the price is hovering, and so there's
not a lot of value you in that line, I
agree with you. Alex Caserius has kind of always been
a quiet, veteran guy who does well. Then he gets
put against someone a little too far that's a stretch
(29:09):
for him, and he doesn't perform. But he is good,
and he is coming off of a wind streak here,
whereas Chikazzie took his first loss against Calvin Cator. So,
but I also think that there's a difference in quality
of opponents here. I mean, I think they've been fast
tracking Giga to you know, maybe fight for a title
in the next year or two, whereas Casiraus is kind
of riding out his career. I mean, he is getting
(29:31):
a little bit older, both of them at the same age,
but he is far more weathered and damaged than Giga
is and Casarra's coming off such a short layoff. I mean, yeah,
these guys are on different sides of the extremes here,
but neither of those is good. You don't want to
take two years out of the cage or a year
and a half. You also don't want to turn around
in three months when you just went three rounds with
someone getting hit in the head and he's not at
(29:52):
an age where he should be doing that, And so
he has taken a lot of knockdowns, way more than Giga,
and so that is a liability. And Giga definitely hits
a lot harder. His knockdown rate is very high for
that division, over four percent, four times that of Cassra's here,
So I think he is a knockout threat, maybe not
early on, but if he starts pouring on that damage,
(30:13):
almost like Holloway, There's only so much a guy can
take a veteran, especially.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
I'm looking at a fight that maybe you're finding some
data on a Tuesday. The final little value with Mike
loll Ola, Jay Chuck back in here against Cheddi and
Kuanu Kwanee. Rather, what do you make of Michael Wow?
It's minus a dollar fifteen against Chety minus a dour five.
Chety is a small favorite here, or excuse me, small dog.
What do you make of Michael minus the dollar fifteen
on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
I do think there's some value here. Michael has has
done it longer if seven knockdowns to date, not a
lot of takedown attempts. But then again, Chety isn't taking
you down either. I think these guys are going to
swing in trade leather. I think someone's going down. It's
just more likely to be the guy who's pushing thirty five,
who has been dropped already in his career. You know,
(30:58):
it's shorter career in the UF, but I think he's
coming in a little bit later in his career in Jikwani.
So I like McColl here, and I actually think there's
a little bit of value in that line. You know,
it's it's not a it's a very affordable line, and
who knows where it's gonna land on fight night. It
could be basically a pick them, and so based on that,
I'm going to take the guy who has more fight time,
more accurate striking, and bigger knockdown power, and that's Michael.
(31:23):
Really shook.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
We'll go Michael. Oh, that's why we always go Michael
LL with Alway j Shack. But yes, I'm with you, go.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
On your Jacheck, and here I'm struggling with another Polish name. Statistically,
I think there's some value here.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, and again we'll see where that ends up. Right now,
pretty evenly aligned here could be a pick them before
we get to to Singapore on Friday evening Saturday morning
for US here Stateside again, a couple fights here that
are intriguing. Certainly veterans in the comin event here don't
know how much more we're gonna see of Superman Span
in mine heart Anthony Smith inside the octagon Anthony won
(31:58):
the first time around. The Superman Span is a dollar
twenty two favorite right now. Any means on this one
on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (32:07):
So I think most people who take a quantitative approach
probably have more than one. And so when I look
at the models, there's more than one model, and sometimes
they come out on different sides. And so sometimes you've
heard me use the expression consensus. I'm looking for picks
where all the models agree where the value is. And
this is one of those examples where they are disagreeing
on who should win this fight, and I get it because,
(32:28):
on one hand, Anthony Smith did take that first fight.
But if you look at them now, Ryan Span is bigger,
he's younger, he's a harder hitter by far. He has
decent offensive wrestling. I don't think he's going to want
to take it there with Anthony Smith. I think he
wants to stand in trade with that seventy nine inch reach,
and so I could see this going out of the way.
(32:48):
I think it's Ryan Span on the feet or it's
Anthony Smith on the ground. Lionheart does like to ride
out that early storm and maybe get a submission lad
in the fight. But this is going to be a
toss up.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
I'm knowing you give you forty five seconds for Santos
against Blanchfield here, and again you look at tell you
against Aaron and both these women could say if I win,
I get the next title shot. I'm intrigued by this fight.
What are the numbers showing you? I know Blanchfield's only
twenty four, so maybe not a ton of data, not a.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Ton of data. And there's another fight where I don't
have a strong lean. Now I'm gonna wait to see
where the prices go. I'm hoping I get a little
bit more value on Santos here. She is a little
bit bigger. She hits very hard. She has three knockdowns
a five percent knockdown rate that's extremely abnormal for that
weight class. So she is the harder hitter, but Blanchfield
obviously she also has a submission game. Santos also competent
(33:38):
on the ground, so I might lean Santos here. I'm
gonna wait see where the prices go.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
All right, set that alarm clock a little bit earlier
than usual. Ridcoon in Washington, DC appreciates you as always.
When we come back, we're going to Boston with Dan
Rielan Net's to here. I first right, we roll on
(34:13):
this edition of First Strike, shipping up to Boston to
catch up with our guy, Daniel Vreeland. You can follow
him on Twitter as I do at Gumbyreeland. Dan, of
course is a great writer at gambling podcast Kate Side
Press and host of Top Turtle MMA and sgp N
MMA pods. The hardest working man in MMA is Dan Freeland.
H Dan, Let's get to it. We love to ask
you this question first of all, before I ask you
(34:34):
the fight you can't wait to watch and wager. What
do you how are you preparing the body for the
time change to get up to watch the first fights
as you know we're gonna do with this fight guard
being in Singapore. Yeah, I'm just.
Speaker 6 (34:48):
Extra thankful that I'm not on the West coast, is
you guys at two am? That's some wild stuff. Yeah, no,
I don't lot. Lots of coffee. Coffee, guys, lots of coffee.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I'm right there with you. Just just fire up the
get a perarcolaid a little bit earlier than usual. Okay,
let's get to this fight guard here and again in
the main event, when he got Max Holloway arguably outside
of Alexander Volkanovski, the greatest featherweight of all time right
until those those epic fights, so that he did not
come out on the right side against. Now he's getting
the Korean zombie and it feels like maybe this is
the end. I don't. I am not in the business
(35:20):
of retiring fighters, but it does have that feel to
it that you know, we're in Singapore. Max loves to
fight all over the world. We've seen that in Toronto.
It doesn't matter where. So Max is like, sure, I'll
fight the zombie in Singapore. Are you laying the eight
fifty or do you think there's another way to approach
this fight. I think there's.
Speaker 6 (35:39):
Probably another way to approach this fight. You know, one
of the things that you know about Max Holloway, and
you've seen time and tuff again, he's a volume guy,
right Like, he's not a big power puncher. Those fights
with Volkanovski are obviously, you know, really get evidence of that.
The fight with Galctators get evidence for that. The fight
with Brian Ortega is really good evidence for that. The
guy goes in there, he puts the pace on you,
he batters you, he's worked faster, he's got better cardio.
(36:01):
That's the stuff that he does. So yeah, no, I'm
staying away from negative eight fifty. You know, that's just
an absurd kind of number. You know, I think he
should be a huge favorite in this fight. But I
think if I'm looking for anything, I'm looking probably for overs.
I'm looking for Max Holloways by decision props. If you
can find somewhere that allows you to bet significant strikes.
He's gotta lay two hundred and fifty punches in this fight,
(36:23):
But bet the over on whatever that number is, so, like,
you know, I'm kind of leaning that way and you'll know,
you know, I'm seeing the number on the screen right now.
The over is is huge, got huge juice on it.
But I think that's where the only value is.
Speaker 1 (36:36):
Yeah, two forty five if you want to lay lay
that price tag for over two and a half rounds.
But it's much better than way in the eight fifty
if you think that the Green Zombie can be to
his nickname and take the punishment that Max is going
to dole out. Is there any danger because I'm trying
to find if anybody sees any danger. I mean, flukey
things have happened, right, But what could do Zombie do?
(36:59):
Is it right?
Speaker 5 (37:00):
Soul?
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Could he really say, all right, Dan, I'm gonna I'm
gonna go there and I'm gonna double a take down
this guy and try to take Max down to the ground.
Do you see a scenario there?
Speaker 6 (37:09):
No, So you know, Krianzavii's wrestling is underrated, right, like
his jiu jitsu is really good. He's got the twister
submission on Leonard Garcia from way back in the day,
and back in the day, like he did hit a
bunch of knockouts, which is what we made us all
love him, But he kind of came up with a
good wrestling in a good jiu jitsu game. With that
being said, Max Halloway is damn near impossible to take down.
The guy just doesn't get taken down because he has
(37:31):
such great control of space, such straight control of range.
You're never in close to his legs all that often.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
So I don't see that.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
I mean, like, if I'm drawing up a scenario for
him to win, it's a lucky punch, right, and even
then it's Max Holloway, Like who puts Max Holloway away?
So yeah, I think the only way that you play
this one is you play overs or you play Holloway
by the cards.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
All right, now that we got through the main event,
let's get back to the question that I should have
asked you right off the top. What fight is the
most intriguing to you? And then conversely, the one that
you really find the best value on here on a Tuesday,
Cassarra's versus.
Speaker 6 (38:05):
Jakantse is the one I'm most excited for it. I've
always been a big Giget Chikanse fan. I love the
way that he kicked boxes. I like that they're giving
him somebody in his return fight year after being away
for as long as he has that's long and rangy
like he is. I think that's going to give him
a chance to see if he's, you know, still what
we thought he was when he was making that run
through the division before he ran into Calvin Cator. I
(38:27):
think that that's a really exciting fight for value. I'm
finding tons of value on Cheaty and Chia Kawani. He's
fighting Michael olashejak Old of Sjack is a guy who's
there to be hit and cheating, and Jia Kawani almost
had Gregory Robo Kapara Grigez out of there before that comeback,
So you know, I think at Jikwani is a guy
who people sleep on how good his kickboxing is. And
(38:48):
I'm seeing him almost an even money right now. I
thought when I saw that fight announced, he would be
a big favorite in this fight. So seeing him that low,
I mean even on the money line. But if you
can find a ko prop too, that's probably in play
as well.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Might just minst dollar to two against Michael oh Here Michael
lol on a Tuesday minus dollar eighteen. I got to
get back to the Giga Chakatse fight because I'm right
there with you that the Blansfield Santos fight that we'll
talk about here as well, those are the two most
intriguing to me. I love Giga. I love the ascent
of Bruce Lee Roy. The way he's now respected mixed
(39:21):
martial artis right, not a guy that's just going in
there for crazy kicks and what have you. Is there
any danger there that because Casaras is now how do
I say this, It's almost like he's educated himself inside
the octagon, right? Could he be too hard to hit
for Giga? And if you don't take Casaras down and
stay standing, that could be an intriguing fifteen minutes potentially.
Speaker 6 (39:41):
Yeah, And you can Alsos say the exact same thing
about Giga Chakade, right, like, if you don't take him down,
where do you beat him? Because he is so good
in range and stuff like that. And that's what makes
this fight so exciting for me is I think they
do a lot of the same things. I think the
difference maker here for me and why I'm on Giga
Chakade is I just think because he's come up in
case because he came from that background. His control at
(40:03):
angles is just a little bit better, His control of
range is just a little bit better, his control of
where he's placing his punches is just a little bit
better than Cassaras. And I do like Cassara's I think
he's probably got a jiu jitsu advantage and a small
wrestling advantage. I just don't think the fight is ever
going to go there. So I'm leaning ever so slightly
with Chikanze, and it's just because I think he's ever
so slightly more.
Speaker 3 (40:23):
Nuanced on the feet.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
Great breakdown. I cannot wait for that fight, and I
mentioned earlier I can't wait for the Aaron Blansfield. I'll
tell you Santo's fight, and again I'll be curious to
see where this number goes Dan before we get there
to Friday morning, Saturday morning, however you want to phrase it,
What do you make of Blanchfield here? Now she's twenty four, right,
she feels like the star is really in the rise,
But so a census. I mean, in losing to Shipchenko,
(40:48):
some might say maybe she won that fight. I mean,
that's what we're talking about now. In the Flyway division,
and I have to assume the winner of this fight
is gonna get the title shot against the winner of
Grosso and Schivchenko in their rematch.
Speaker 6 (41:00):
Yeah, well, as long as that one doesn't wind up
in a trilogy, which would be a nightmare for the
winner of this fight, right, And if chef Schenko wins
that and we didn't wind up happened to do three?
Speaker 5 (41:08):
But yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
This is so intriguing for a number of reasons. Obviously,
this is probably the best pure grappler that Aaron Blanshield
has fought in her professional career for that matter, not
even just in the UFC. But I think that I
favor her in terms of how well she wrestles and
how oftense she is. Because while Talia Santos is a
really good grappler, and we saw really good stuff out
(41:30):
of her against Valentino Chefchenko. In fact, that why some
people thought she won that fight, she also concedes quite
a few takedowns, Like if you go back across her career,
and it's less so lately, but if you go back
across her career, you know, she conceded a couple of takedowns. Tomorrow,
Romero Barello, who wasn't you know, nobody really particularly thought
it was all that good of a wrestler. She did
spend almost five minutes on her back against Valentino Chefchenko
(41:52):
like and she has to really faced like a big, tough,
offensive wrestling machine like Aaron Blanchfield is as somebody who
got you know, heavy hips when she is on top.
You know, chef Schenko is good on top. But at
the same time we all know Valuneer to Shephchenko for
her striking. I don't think she's faced somebody like Blanchefield,
somebody like Blanchfield who is not easy to get off
(42:13):
of you when she is on top. And I don't
know that she's faced anybody with the submission skills, because again,
Volunteer Shoshenko great on top. We've seen her finish people
from you know, mount a crucifix and stuff like that,
but it's with her hands and in Really, Aaron Blanchfield
has some of the best jiu jitsu in all of
MMA right now. And I think really that's the difference
(42:34):
maker for me is I think she's just going to
be in enough offensive positions and she's gonna threaten enough
and stay on top enough that I think she's gonna
wind up being ahead on the judges' scorecards early. I
do really wish this was a five round fight, though,
I wish we could see what would happen in the
later rounds, because really that's all I'm really missing on
wondering what is the ceiling for Aaron Blanchfield.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
Well, and that you led me right to where I
wanted to go with my next question, which was, you're
looking at the total juiced heavy get a LA two
to sixty to go over two and a half rounds
without picking a winner. You can play minus two seventy
five for the fight to hit the cards for AW
three five round five, we might get to some finishing
potential because it's fifteen minutes to work. Do you think
that they're gonna that they're gonna almost have a stalemate there,
(43:16):
And that's why we don't really have a lot of
finishing potential for either woman.
Speaker 6 (43:20):
I think there is, but I will say the number,
being askewed as it is, I think there is value
on the under there. I think there's a chance Aaron
Blanchefield goes in there and gets her out of there,
you know, like she is such a good finisher when
she's after it. You know, she finishes Scan Drage finished
Molly McCann, which turned out to be a little easier
than we thought it was. But the fact of the
matter is that she goes in there and she's finished
(43:41):
people or the last couple of times out there, and
she knows what's at date, and she seems to push
for the finish more when she knows what's at stake.
Speaker 3 (43:48):
So I would say, with the.
Speaker 6 (43:50):
Line on the under being, you know, two to one
at this point in time, you know like there's probably
value there. And if you wanted to play Blanchefield by submission,
the number is high in up there that a sprinkle
isn't going to kill you either.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Plus four twenty five if you like Blanchefield via the
sub the overs, as Dan alluded to, there two to
one if you want to play the under without picking
a winner under two and a half rounds got about
thirty seconds ago. Were you doing hits overseas like in
France and across the world. What's going on here?
Speaker 6 (44:17):
Yeah, Well, you know, we've got a card coming up
in Paris. So I've got a couple of fighters, one
from Paris and one from Venice. Who will be on
the top Turn on the Day podcast in the coming week.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
That is a great plug, my friend. We we bonjour
all those good things over there in France. Dan, appreciate
you as always, my friend. To get up early and
everybody get up early, watch those fights, cash some tickets
and we'll see you next week. Right back here, it's
First Strike on vs and the Sports Betting Network.
He welcome to First Strike here on vison. I'm your
hos Dave Ross here at certain sportsbook in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
Before we get to Singapore for this week and early
start for everybody back here stateside. It's going to be
Max Halaway against the Korean Zombie in the main event.
I do want to put a bone what we saw
at UFC two ninety two, and oh my goodness, we
saw a changing of the guard in the bantamweight division
(00:36):
and knew the Sugar Show it's real. At least it
was real last Saturday night, second out, second round knockout
of the former champ allister al Jamaine Sterling. Rather and
in the coming event, way Lee Jang absolutely a demolition
of aman A Limo as she wins a unanimous five
round decision. But you look at al Jamaine Sterling now
does he get the immediate rematch against the Sugar Show?
(00:59):
Will he fight she Vera. That's the only lost that
Sean Amelly has had so far in his brief UFC career.
We will find out what is next in the bantamweight division.
Without further ado, Let's bring in loop for the Carrol.
You can follow you as I do at Gamblu, the
host of about Business podcast Lou I Gotta be honest
a book. I thought al Joe might be able to
wrestle a little bit. That didn't happen. The timing of
the Sugar Show was for real, whether or not we
(01:20):
thought he was maybe earn that title, shout, she is
now the champ. What is your biggest takeaway from last
Saturday Night?
Speaker 2 (01:28):
My biggest takeaway was that I did have the Sterling side.
I want to disclose me too, But my biggest takeaway
was disappointment in myself because Sterling was telling he was
vomiting tell at the stairdowns, and o'melly's cool demeanor made
(01:48):
me very very worried at that point, and he approached
it calm, cool and collected. Uh, he's a viper. He
earned everything that he's now going to be projected into.
To me, it'll be interesting to see. Does the UFC
treat them like they like they treated Usman and put
(02:10):
Sterling right back on him the toughest test, or do
they manipulate this and give them vera still will sell
and it allows them to permeate their superstar another fight longer.
In my view, if Sterling asked for the rematch, he
should be absolutely granted.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Yeah, we were talking about maybe the greatest manding weight
of all time until Saturday night. You would think that'd
be enough of a body of work to get that
rematch against the Sugar Show. We'll find out what Dana
White and company decide to do when you get to
Singapore for this week. Right, we're gonna get up early, Louis.
That does a long clock a little bit earlier for
us here state side, and you do have the return
of Max Alway against the Korean Zombie. And again you
(02:51):
look at the number, my goodness, and again we were
talking about Max at one time is the greatest featherweight
of all time until Alexander Volkonowski and those fights happen. Now, wow,
he's going to lay eight fifty. Here's the amazing part.
You think of Max and you think he's got to
be north of you know, pushing forty. He's only I
put in air quotes thirty one the boys. He'd been
around the block. And then you look at the Green Zombie.
(03:11):
He is five years his senior at thirty six, does
have the reach advantage here we know it can be
wild at times with the Grand Zombie. What do you
make of this main event potentially going all five.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Well, I think honestly that in their zeal to appeal
to that sector of the hemisphere, which is exactly what
they're doing, they needed a headliner that was going to
catch eyeballs and create hype, and unfortunately, when they put
on forty four forty five shows a year, that gets
really tough to do. So the Zombie fits perfect because
(03:47):
he has that attraction to that edge of the world,
and Max ships in. It's perfectly marketable. The Zombie was
calling for Max, but everywhere you look at it, this
is a mismat The Zombie is a reputable, honest, great
guy that lost the prime of his career because he
went to serve in Korea's misitary So as a human being,
(04:10):
the guy as solid as a rock. But as a fighter,
he's thirty six. He's given a height and size, and
surely Max has been in with the elite of the division.
And yes, Max once was considered the go to the featherweights,
but without Volkanowski, Max is untouchable still, and I believe
at thirty one he's not ready to step aside for anyone.
(04:33):
This is a fight where I'm going to look elsewhere
on the card.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Yeah, it is amazing too. And you look at the
height and weight here. Obviously weight's going to be equal here,
but the three inch reach advantage. Yet he's four inches shorter.
We saw that with Algemy's throwing last week. Four inches
shorter than the Sugar Show, yet only one inch discrepancy
in the reach. So very interesting body types there. But
it does feel like Max has a lot of advantages,
so we'll look for other ways to attack this card.
(04:57):
I do want to get to one fight. I'm almost
surprised it's the comine event and I know it's one
that you've got your eye on and I do too,
And that's Aaron Blanchfield against Taya Santos. And you can
make the argument here with these two women with their
ascent right now, and you look at Blanchfield on a
Tuesday small favorite about a dollar thirty five, what do
you make of this flyweight matchup? Because it feels like
(05:18):
right now in the in the flyway division, these two
women are gonna maybe the winner says I'm next for
the title shot.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Boy, I couldn't agree with that statement more. Here's Santos,
who is a violent striking woman, but she really she's
wide telegraphing and comes in shin first because she has
no real ambition to strike. She wants to wrap you up,
get you down. And she rag dowd Championship Chenko in
(05:48):
her last fight, and from that fight, she looked that
was as good a fight as she could possibly have
put on. And I think that could be affecting people
to some degree. Now Santos is the older woman, but
only thirty, so she's in her prime. It really I
can see how people would think that the wrong person
is favored here. Blanchefield's younger, less experienced. However, I think
(06:12):
if Blanchefield can manage this fight into the second keep
it on its feet, the more it's on its feet,
the more it favors Blanchefield. I think I would be
surprised at Blanchefield decides to go down with Santos early.
But there's a reason Blanchefield is favored here. I think
though she's shorter, she's going to be the heavier, stockier woman,
(06:36):
and I think she's the woman that if she can
get it into the second round, she can do a
little bit what wy Lee did last week. To Leamosh
and that is begin to dominate on her cardio.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
That was the biggest surprise to me, going back to
that fight you're referencing with Leigley Jiang, the domination on
the mat. When you see these prop numbers here and again,
it's duced heavily to the over at minus two sixty
over two and a half browns here, lou So, the
bookmakers are telling you, hey, we believe this thing's hitting
the cards. If it goes the distance, you got to
lay almost three to one minus two seventy five. Right now.
(07:08):
Do you see finishing potential here? Because if it's a firefight,
as you mentioned, and they stay standing, those Ko prop
numbers are pretty juicy. Twelve to one on the blanching inside,
nine to one on the Santo side.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
A great question I can't answer. Here's what I want.
I want to see him roll. That's what I want
to see. Here's what I think when two great grapplers
get together, they stare at each other in the mirror,
and this is a stand up fight. I'll lean blanchefield
decision in that manner. That's how I look at it
at this early stage of the week.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
I love it. It takes me back to say Kolby
Covington against Tomorrow Usman in their fights, where these two
great wrestlers, and yet they were turned out to be
striking battles because they didn't want to get down on
the ground. In exchange, in the co main event, here
we get Superman Span Ryan Spam back in there against
the Lionhard Anthony Smith. A very evenly aligned fight. We're
seeing here Ryan SPAN's small favorite right now on a
(07:59):
Tuesday Monstarar twenty two. These two guys are clearly veterans
in the light heavyweight division. We know the power of Span.
Does that mean that if you're lying Hart, you don't
want to bang it out here with Ryan? You want
to take this thing down to the ground. How do
you see this Comaine going?
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Yeah? I see it as really one of the better
fights on the car. Now it is a rematch. Smith
won the first one, so now they spin it back again.
But the circumstances are different. Smith hobbles in off a
couple of losses where he hasn't looked terrific, albeit against
dynamic opponents. Span meanwhile, it has really tried to overcome
(08:37):
a very uneven career and to me, I'm not even
seeing totals yet. I'd love to know the total in
this fight. If it's two and a half, we can get.
Speaker 1 (08:48):
You one and a half right now. One and a
half is juiced, you can get plus money. Now. If
you think he goes seven and a half plus, that
is plus dollar fifty. The under right now is these
are just coming out fresh off the presses loose we're
putting you know, that immediate reaction that you get to
at the under right now heavily juiced at minus an
hour eighty, So they're not expecting it to go along
into that Singapore morning for us.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Hey, yeah, they aren't. And I was hoping for two
and a half because I think I want to like
Smith in this fight. I think he's a little undervalued
and perhaps Span overvalued at this perspective on a Tuesday.
We'll have to wait and see what transpires. But Span
has more momentum and Smith has to prove that he
(09:30):
still belongs. So there's a lot of questions will be
answered with this one.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Well, maybe the fight that I'm most intrigued by, it's
Giga Chakatse getting back in there against Bruce Lee. Roy
Now is Caseras and the reason why I'm so intrue
two fighters I've backed in the past and cashed a
lot right back in the days, and they are dogs.
And we haven't seen Gigan almost what two plus or
two years here, right, And we've seen fighters like Chris
Wyman last week come off a three year layoff. I
(09:56):
did not think he looked necessarily sharp. I'm not saying
that's going to be the same thing for Giga, but
he is now a two forty five favorite against a
guy in aus Casarus who feels like he's hitting his
stride at thirty five. What do you see here?
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (10:09):
I see the layoffer Chikazi, and the layoff came after
he was completely had the brakes beat off of him
by Calvin Cater in a standing war. And Chikazi showed
his medal, but I wonder what he lost anyway, he
takes plenty of time off. Meanwhile, Cassaris has had two
grappling matches won against Pat Sabatteini and three fights where
(10:32):
he's looked impressive since we've seen Chikazi. So the busier
man's Casaris. This fight opens Chikazi minus one seventy five.
He's been steamed and I love that because it's creating
great value on Casarus, who I'm now seeing plus two hundred.
I can't really anticipate any trouble on the scale from Alex.
(10:56):
I don't know about Chikazi, but at two to one
on Alex is a bye for me and I would
buy that now.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
I got about forty five seconds to go. Will tell
the people about the About Business podcast what they get
each in every Friday.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
They get great advice on how to bet these UFC fights.
We take creative approaches to profit. We're up about twenty
units on the year and we'll drop sometime Friday early
morning based on the obtuse hours by which this thing
is going on.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Great use of obtuse, I mean, it's just a fit.
Takes me back to Shawshank Redemption. There is everybody who's
been to Carol, the one and only, always appreciate his
insight each in every week, just get it started to
come on back. It is first strike your own vs.
In the sports betting network, Draft Kings, Sportswook gives you
(12:08):
many ways to bet the UFC, not just the main event.
They've got fight lines on total rounds and MMA features
in props galore, So just download the DraftKings Sportsbook app today.
Back here on First Strike, Dave Ross in Las Vegas.
Let's go back out to the great city of Chicago.
Enjoyed Zaid Hussein, who joins us for the first time
(12:29):
on First Strike. Zaid, great to have you on. Do
great work at WCRX in Chicago and of course at
props US. You can follow him as I do as
Zaida underscore Hussein on Twitter or x whatever they're calling
it now. Zaid, Hey, great to have you on, my friend.
Let me get right to one of the fights that
I'm most intrigued by on this card, and I think
you have a similar fascination with the Aaron Blanchfield against
(12:50):
Taya Santo's fight, because I look at these two women here, Zaid,
and I said, these are two women that could easily
stake their claim to a title shot. Whatever is going
to happen with a Lexa Grosso in the rematch against
the bullet Chefchenko. What do you make of this which
could be a very intriguing flyweight bound.
Speaker 4 (13:07):
Yeah, one hundred percent, and thank you for having me on.
I think this is one of the most fascinating fights
honestly of the year. You look at what Blanchfield has done,
you know, in the division, just running through her opponents,
and then Santos on the flip side, you know, against
chef Chenko with a great, great performance, Some say she
arguably won that fight. I think Blanchfield is the wrong
side here, and I see a lot of people on
(13:28):
that side.
Speaker 5 (13:29):
While she's run.
Speaker 4 (13:30):
Through everybody in the division, you know, she hasn't really
fought in people that can, you know, defend a takedown
like a Santos can and who's skilled enough on the
ground to be able to fight off those takedowns and
fight off of her back as well. I think Santos
at plus one twenty five is one of the better bets,
and it's been hit by a lot of sharps in.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Vegas for example. I think when when you.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
Look at Santos against Chefchenko and how she was able
to defend off those hip tosses and take her down
and take her back, and then look at what she's
done on the striking side as well, She's gonna get
Blanchfield a lot of problems on the feet, and I
think Blansfield will struggle to get that takedown and I
think Santos will pick her apart from range.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Zay, do you look at it and say, okay, right now,
it's heavily to the over right, and we see that
minus two sixty for two and a half rounds. This
is just potentially a three round match up here that
when you do have I'm going to be fascinating to
see them go down to the ground with just that
glue for the Carolin. He's talked about how much he'd
like to see this fight hit the ground. Do you
think it neutralizes each other? And that's why maybe Santo's
with the hands, you give her the advantage if it
(14:27):
does stay standing.
Speaker 4 (14:30):
I think this does stay standing, and if it doesn't
the ground, Blanchfield is not going to be able to
do what she's done to you know, past opponents like
a Molly McCann or just John Drodge. Overall, I think
Santos has the cleaner boxing Blanfield tends to when she
throws strikes, you know, she doesn't take her head off
the center line, and I think she's gonna get clipped
in this fight, and we saw it in her most
recent outing, but it hasn't really been exposed as much
(14:51):
because she's been so dominant on the ground and being
able to take her opponents down. I think that's not
the case on Saturday. And I really like the Santo
side at plus money.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
That normal when you look at age, right, and normally
you want to be on this side of youth, right.
And so Blansfield here is twenty four, but Santos is thirty,
which could be hitting maybe her mma prime here. Do
you actually look at it as an advantage because maybe, yes,
Blansfield feels like the next and she's got a lot
of fight left in her at twenty four, who knows
what her career is going to look like. Is this
(15:20):
too much too soon for her against a more experienced
Santo's at this spot?
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Yeah, I think you hit it on the head. I
think while Blansfield is elite on the ground and heads
that wrestling advantage, I just think it's a really really
bad match for her. You know, I consider Chef Chinkle
to be, you know, even though she's coming off that loss,
the best fighter in the division, and what Santos was
able to do is really eye opening. And then you
look at the Blanchfield side, it's just she hasn't foughten
that top top, top level yet and I think she's
(15:47):
gonna be doing it this weekend and she's gonna get exposed.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Said, if we get somebody with a dynamic finish like
we saw in the main event at UF two two
ninety two, maybe that woman then say all right, I'm waiting,
and whoever wins in the rematch across a chef Chenko,
I am next cannot wait to see that fight early
in the morning in Singapore. Let's get to the main
event here and again, when you have a fight line
the way it is with Max Alway eight fifty betting
(16:10):
favored over the Korean Zombie, maybe there's other ways to
attack it, right, And I get it everything you look
at all the metrics, it's gonna favor Max Halloway. But
you know, Max, even though he's thirty one and five
years the junior of the Korean Zombie here, he's been
on a lot of wars in his UFC days, and
so is the Kreen Zombie. Is there any trepidation of
(16:30):
I know people are gonna put Max in a lot
of parlays here this week? How do you attack this
main event when you see a number like this?
Speaker 4 (16:37):
You know, for me, I think The biggest thing to
do when attacking this main event is to look at
late pops for Holloway. I mean we see Korean Zombie
obviously three and three in his leis six fights.
Speaker 5 (16:47):
On his way out.
Speaker 4 (16:48):
You know, it was really tough to watch that last
fight against Bolkanowski, who just really picked apart. I think
this is a similar type of fight. And for people
that think Max Halloway is a type of fighter that's
slowing down, I mean, look what you just did to
Arnold Allen. He went out there a young up and
coming prospect, was really legit. I like Hallowey late. I
don't think he has the power to put him out early.
So if I'm gonna attack this fight, I'm taking Halloway
(17:09):
props very late.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
So maybe maybe a fourth or fifth round finish is
what you might look at. Yes, okay, So again you're
you're right. I mean, you look at this here at
Max Hollaway, and what's interesting here, say it is you
look at the total rounds for the props. Two and
a half right now is juice heavily to the over.
So I think you're weaning that way at minus two
forty five. But if you want to look at Max
inside the distance, you might be able to get that
(17:33):
here at a dollar seventy today. Is that's a way
that you can shorten that price tag. Then you don't
have to worry about necessary whether or not it's gonna
happen inside of two and a half rounds. You can
just take that car blanche over five. Do you like
that prop better?
Speaker 4 (17:46):
I do one hundred percent. And I think this is
kind of a statement fight for Halloween. It's it's just
last really run at the title. So if he's looking
to make a statement and say, hey, I want to
challenge for the belt again, he has to put the
Korean zombie away, and I think he does do that Saturday.
I think he looks to make that he's gonna outclass
him on the feet, and you know, it's just it's
sad to say, but like zombies on his way out
at thirty six years old, you know, Hollowe is still
(18:07):
able toe with the top of the class. And I
think you have to play that plus one seventy price
tag and that's the best way to go.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Yeah, there it is. I'm with you there. If Max
is gonna get back in there for one more shot,
whether it's Kins Vulk or whomever. This is the type
of fight he probably just doesn't want to win by
decision something. He didn't want to get a stoppage and
really put on a show to say remember me. I
don't think anybody's forgotten him in the co main event. Here,
you look at the Lioneheart Smith against Superman Span and
this is a rematch now, and we know that Anthony
(18:35):
got the better of Ryan the first time around, and
yet he's gonna find himself as a small dog here
plus a dollar two as we talk on a Tuesday here,
what do you make of the komaan here?
Speaker 4 (18:46):
You know, for me, I'm looking at if you're playing
either side, it's gonna come inside the distance.
Speaker 5 (18:51):
And you know you mentioned this is a rematch.
Speaker 4 (18:53):
The first time these guys fought UFC Vegas, I believe
thirty seven it.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
Was a slug fest, absolute slug fest.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Both fighters are age and kind of almost on their
way out as well.
Speaker 5 (19:01):
I mean Span, Span has shown life, but this.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
Is kind of their last shot in the UFC to
make a statement and make a kind of run.
Speaker 5 (19:07):
Both coming off losses.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I think Smith is aside with the cleaner boxing like
we saw in the previous fight, and Span kind of
has that power that's you know, he could put your
lights out. But overall, if you're playing either side, I
like it to I'm by knockout. I think you know
Span lost by submission last time. But overall he was
getting hurt on the feet. They both hurt each other
on the feet. I'm playing Unders as well here. I
(19:31):
know it's probably Juice, but I like Unders and that
There's no way this fight was a distance for me.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
There it is. It's at one and a half right now.
Juice heavily to that under say it to your point
Mons a dollar eighty here inside of a round and
a half in that comin event, I got to ask
you a fight that I'm really intrigued by, and it's
again two fighters that have been profitable for me in
the last couple of years. That'ski get Chakatse back after
almost a two year layoff here against Bruce Leebroy, and
(19:57):
now it's Casarras and Casarras you know early on as
days and I kind of looked at him as almost
like a novelty fighter. Not anymore. I mean, if we
are not taking Alex Casarra seriously I think we're kind
of not valuating what he's done to be a real
well rounded mixed martial artist. Ji katse It was really
shining into that Calvin Cator fight, and now off the layoff,
(20:18):
he's a two forty five favorite. Is there danger in
this fight for Giga against Alex?
Speaker 5 (20:23):
You know, I don't think there's tons of danger.
Speaker 4 (20:26):
I just don't see a lot of value on the
Giga side, Like you're gonna lay a minus two forty
it's kind of hard to justify because of like you know,
you mentioned, he hasn't fought.
Speaker 5 (20:33):
Since twenty twenty two. I think the beginning of twenty are.
Speaker 4 (20:35):
Since coming off a long layoff, Gigot was on I
believe a seven fight win Street coming into that Calvin
Cator fight, which which he lost, and overall, I think
he is the cleaner striker in the and it's priced
about right. I just don't I don't like laying a
minus two forty five here. I think he probably wins
a decision and out classes him on the feet, but
I don't see him getting a finish here, and I
(20:56):
don't really justify laying the price tag of minus two
forty five.
Speaker 1 (20:59):
So if you don't if you think that this is
going to hit the cards, okay for the fight to
go the distance. By the way, it is a minus
dollars seventy right now. Would you look at Giga here
via decision, you can get that at even money if
you don't want to lay that big time price tag.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Yeah, yeah, I think that's worth the play Giga even money.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
But overall, I wouldn't.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Be surprised if Giga put him away too. You know,
he has that insane liver kick that he's put a
lot of fighters away with. I think he could make
a statement. Overall, this isn't just a pass for me.
I think this is a really exciting fight. Bold fighters
kind of have question marks coming in with the layoff,
and I'm not interested in laying by his two forty
five here.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yeah, And by the way, that's good advice as well.
If you're not don't see a line whether it's you
want to go for a profit or a decision and
you can just pass. That's an easy way to go
as well. I want to ask you about any other
fight on the card that you might like, but really,
Junior Tafa against Parker Porter, and sometimes you look at
these kind of plotting heavyweights sometimes and you go, all right, well,
this one's not going to go the distance. What do
(21:57):
you make of the heavies here? Do you think that
we're finally going to see elates be heavyweights? And these
guys aren't necessarily known for their one punch knockout power.
But Tapa right now is a small favorite of Masdar
fifty five as we talk on a Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
Yeah, and and the fun fact is Tapa's older brother
actually finished Park Reporter a couple of fights ago, so
you know there's maybe he has a little bit of
inside information for himself to you know, get the victory.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
But this is a price tag.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
I think it should be price closer to I pick
on Park Reporter and Tafah both. You know, I would
say Porter leans with the experience, but both fighters kind
of have similar pet to be similar fight style. They're
both going to be boxing, and I think this goes under.
I think Tapa is probably the FO striker overall. I
would mean Tapa maybe, but I wouldn't lay that.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Head said, really appreciate you joining us here on First Strike.
When we come back, We're going to Washington, DC. Ridcoup
next to here on first right, start your morning with
(23:11):
Vson Daily Morning Bets. Josh Applebaum gives you every piece
of info you need to be ready for betting the
day's biggest games in just fifteen minutes. He discusses my
movement's injuries and what you need to be looking at
before you make your wager. So make the Vson Daily
Morning Bets podcast part of your morning routine. Download and
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of coffee, a couple of push ups, and then check
(23:33):
out what my man read Coon is telling me before
we get to the fights each and every week, and
you should always follow read as I do. At fight
Nomics puts out some good nuggets like He's already done
this week before we get to this card in Singapore
and read, uh, what is your alarm clock gonna do
for Friday night Saturday morning? How in the world are
you gonna prepare for this mentally and physically?
Speaker 3 (23:54):
He at least I'm on the East Coast, so it's
not quite as bad as you guys, I remember being.
And occasionally there were nights where I found myself waking
up looking at my phone see if there were some results.
Coming in, But no, I'll probably wait till the main card.
I might get up early, make it a productive Saturday.
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
Yeah, it's gonna be early again. What is it two
thirty in the morning Britain? Is that correct?
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (24:14):
Two thirty in the morning here in Vegas for the
start of this card. I'm terrible with time differences anyway,
So this is going to be really dicey for yours
truly lead read it. Let's get to the main event
of said card. And again we're not in the business
lay in eight fifty favorites like Max Hollway is against
the Korean zombie in this one. But I get do
the numbers support it? Because sometimes you'll tell me, and
(24:36):
I think it's very interesting. Most people going to go,
there's no way I'm gonna get involved in a price
tag like that. But sometimes you can even find value.
I don't know if you do in this case where
you say, yeah, the numbers do support it, maybe he
should be even a bigger favorite.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah, basically the numbers do support him as a huge favorite.
But you're right, there's not a lot of value in
just betting him straight up. You got to really throw
a lot of your bank roll just to win a little,
So that doesn't make sense. I think obviously I people
are going to be using him as a parlay leg,
maybe looking for props. If you have a finishing angle
for me. It's tough because I line these guys up.
(25:12):
The matchup doesn't really make sense other than maybe out
of respect, I guess if the Korean Zombie asked for this.
But if you look at his trajectory over the last
few years, really he had this very long layoff when
he was in the military. In the last ten years,
he's only four and three and two of those four
wins came against people who aren't even in the UFC anymore.
So you got to ask yourself, what is he doing
(25:33):
in the cage with one of the greats of all
time at featherweight, Max Holloway and also the dynamics Chance
Ung Jung. Will get into a punching war, and he's
called the zombie because he keeps coming forward and eating punches.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Well.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
Max Holloway is one of those guys who will dish
you punches over and over. He will pile up damage.
Not exactly a one hit or quitter type fighter, but
he will accumulate damage, and I do think a finish
as possible. I just don't want to play too cute
with the over unders. So it could be a situation
where you make a single game parlay, you know, Max Holloway,
(26:07):
and an over one point five makes it a little
bit more reasonable, but still it's it's gonna be one
of these chalky parlay type fights.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
You know, because read I the Brian Ortega fight is
the type of fight that you're describing that comes to
mind for me right where he just it was. It
was ugly if you're on the Ortega side that night,
right the beating that Max Howway can put on you.
And outside of Alexander Volkonowsky, you made the point, this
might be the greatest featherweight that we've ever seen if
alex Volkanovski didn't exist. So is there anything that the
(26:35):
numbers show you that the Koreans like, for those are
gonna say, I want to take a shot on this
dog because it's too big a price. What would be
the method of victory there? Is it just a wild
elbow something we can't see because he can be a
little reckless in times inside the octagon.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
I think there is a point in a standard MMA
line with two competent UFC caliber fighters that you just
don't lay the juice because what about to hit an injury?
What about the situation back home with Max Holloway, is
his head in the right place suffering a natural disaster
back there? You don't know if he trips on the
way in or if he had a bad weight cut,
got sick the night before. This is overseas, This is
(27:13):
an unusual fight environment for him. There's lots of things
that happen in MMA that can actually change Yakama on
a fight, but we don't have visibility into that. So
looking purely at the numbers, yes, he should be a
runaway favorite here. The only angle for victory where you
could argue Korean zombie is with a submission. He does
have a good submission arsenal. He's one of the few
guys ever to pull off a twister, and that was
(27:34):
against Dustin Poier in Virginia, by the way, I was
at that fight, and so yeah, he does have that
angle to victory. But Max Holloway, this is not going
to be the first opponent who would rather take Max
Holloway down. He has excellent takedown defense. He finds the fight,
he finds a way to keep the fight on the feet,
and he just crushes people over and over and he'll
even tell you how to do better mid fight, like
(27:55):
he did against Brian Ratiga. So that's why I just
got a back halloway here all the way. But if
you're really looking for that lottery ticket, maybe it's Korean
Zombie by submission.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Sixteen to one. If you think the Zombie can get
it down to the Grebel. What a great recall you
had there back in Virginia, going back to that one
against the Diamond Dustin Employer. Okay, one fight that I'm
really intrigued by, and I've been looking at it all
week on. You know, Giga Chakats. We haven't seen him
in forever, and I alluded to your tweets and you
put out there some of these guys that we just
haven't seen inside the octagon in a long long time.
(28:25):
He would be the longest for in activity before this
fight in Singapore, and yet here he is a two
forty five favorite over guy in Bruce Lebroy, who if
you didn't take him seriously earlier in his zm MMA career,
maybe you do now because he's looked like he's rounding
in the form. Even at thirty five. Are the numbers
still supporting Giga here as a big almost two fifty
(28:45):
betting favorite, do.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
But we're not seeing a lot of value and so yeah,
I think Giga takes this, you know, the majority of
the time, two out of three, three on four, but
that's also where the price is hovering, and so there's
not a lot of value you in that line, I
agree with you. Alex Caserius has kind of always been
a quiet, veteran guy who does well. Then he gets
put against someone a little too far that's a stretch
(29:09):
for him, and he doesn't perform. But he is good,
and he is coming off of a wind streak here,
whereas Chikazzie took his first loss against Calvin Cator. So,
but I also think that there's a difference in quality
of opponents here. I mean, I think they've been fast
tracking Giga to you know, maybe fight for a title
in the next year or two, whereas Casiraus is kind
of riding out his career. I mean, he is getting
(29:31):
a little bit older, both of them at the same age,
but he is far more weathered and damaged than Giga
is and Casarra's coming off such a short layoff. I mean, yeah,
these guys are on different sides of the extremes here,
but neither of those is good. You don't want to
take two years out of the cage or a year
and a half. You also don't want to turn around
in three months when you just went three rounds with
someone getting hit in the head and he's not at
(29:52):
an age where he should be doing that, And so
he has taken a lot of knockdowns, way more than Giga,
and so that is a liability. And Giga definitely hits
a lot harder. His knockdown rate is very high for
that division, over four percent, four times that of Cassra's here,
So I think he is a knockout threat, maybe not
early on, but if he starts pouring on that damage,
(30:13):
almost like Holloway, There's only so much a guy can
take a veteran, especially.
Speaker 1 (30:17):
I'm looking at a fight that maybe you're finding some
data on a Tuesday. The final little value with Mike
loll Ola, Jay Chuck back in here against Cheddi and
Kuanu Kwanee. Rather, what do you make of Michael Wow?
It's minus a dollar fifteen against Chety minus a dour five.
Chety is a small favorite here, or excuse me, small dog.
What do you make of Michael minus the dollar fifteen
on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
I do think there's some value here. Michael has has
done it longer if seven knockdowns to date, not a
lot of takedown attempts. But then again, Chety isn't taking
you down either. I think these guys are going to
swing in trade leather. I think someone's going down. It's
just more likely to be the guy who's pushing thirty five,
who has been dropped already in his career. You know,
(30:58):
it's shorter career in the UF, but I think he's
coming in a little bit later in his career in Jikwani.
So I like McColl here, and I actually think there's
a little bit of value in that line. You know,
it's it's not a it's a very affordable line, and
who knows where it's gonna land on fight night. It
could be basically a pick them, and so based on that,
I'm going to take the guy who has more fight time,
more accurate striking, and bigger knockdown power, and that's Michael.
(31:23):
Really shook.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
We'll go Michael. Oh, that's why we always go Michael
LL with Alway j Shack. But yes, I'm with you, go.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
On your Jacheck, and here I'm struggling with another Polish name. Statistically,
I think there's some value here.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, and again we'll see where that ends up. Right now,
pretty evenly aligned here could be a pick them before
we get to to Singapore on Friday evening Saturday morning
for US here Stateside again, a couple fights here that
are intriguing. Certainly veterans in the comin event here don't
know how much more we're gonna see of Superman Span
in mine heart Anthony Smith inside the octagon Anthony won
(31:58):
the first time around. The Superman Span is a dollar
twenty two favorite right now. Any means on this one
on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (32:07):
So I think most people who take a quantitative approach
probably have more than one. And so when I look
at the models, there's more than one model, and sometimes
they come out on different sides. And so sometimes you've
heard me use the expression consensus. I'm looking for picks
where all the models agree where the value is. And
this is one of those examples where they are disagreeing
on who should win this fight, and I get it because,
(32:28):
on one hand, Anthony Smith did take that first fight.
But if you look at them now, Ryan Span is bigger,
he's younger, he's a harder hitter by far. He has
decent offensive wrestling. I don't think he's going to want
to take it there with Anthony Smith. I think he
wants to stand in trade with that seventy nine inch reach,
and so I could see this going out of the way.
(32:48):
I think it's Ryan Span on the feet or it's
Anthony Smith on the ground. Lionheart does like to ride
out that early storm and maybe get a submission lad
in the fight. But this is going to be a
toss up.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
I'm knowing you give you forty five seconds for Santos
against Blanchfield here, and again you look at tell you
against Aaron and both these women could say if I win,
I get the next title shot. I'm intrigued by this fight.
What are the numbers showing you? I know Blanchfield's only
twenty four, so maybe not a ton of data, not a.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Ton of data. And there's another fight where I don't
have a strong lean. Now I'm gonna wait to see
where the prices go. I'm hoping I get a little
bit more value on Santos here. She is a little
bit bigger. She hits very hard. She has three knockdowns
a five percent knockdown rate that's extremely abnormal for that
weight class. So she is the harder hitter, but Blanchfield
obviously she also has a submission game. Santos also competent
(33:38):
on the ground, so I might lean Santos here. I'm
gonna wait see where the prices go.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
All right, set that alarm clock a little bit earlier
than usual. Ridcoon in Washington, DC appreciates you as always.
When we come back, we're going to Boston with Dan
Rielan Net's to here. I first right, we roll on
(34:13):
this edition of First Strike, shipping up to Boston to
catch up with our guy, Daniel Vreeland. You can follow
him on Twitter as I do at Gumbyreeland. Dan, of
course is a great writer at gambling podcast Kate Side
Press and host of Top Turtle MMA and sgp N
MMA pods. The hardest working man in MMA is Dan Freeland.
H Dan, Let's get to it. We love to ask
you this question first of all, before I ask you
(34:34):
the fight you can't wait to watch and wager. What
do you how are you preparing the body for the
time change to get up to watch the first fights
as you know we're gonna do with this fight guard
being in Singapore. Yeah, I'm just.
Speaker 6 (34:48):
Extra thankful that I'm not on the West coast, is
you guys at two am? That's some wild stuff. Yeah, no,
I don't lot. Lots of coffee. Coffee, guys, lots of coffee.
Speaker 1 (34:57):
I'm right there with you. Just just fire up the
get a perarcolaid a little bit earlier than usual. Okay,
let's get to this fight guard here and again in
the main event, when he got Max Holloway arguably outside
of Alexander Volkanovski, the greatest featherweight of all time right
until those those epic fights, so that he did not
come out on the right side against. Now he's getting
the Korean zombie and it feels like maybe this is
the end. I don't. I am not in the business
(35:20):
of retiring fighters, but it does have that feel to
it that you know, we're in Singapore. Max loves to
fight all over the world. We've seen that in Toronto.
It doesn't matter where. So Max is like, sure, I'll
fight the zombie in Singapore. Are you laying the eight
fifty or do you think there's another way to approach
this fight. I think there's.
Speaker 6 (35:39):
Probably another way to approach this fight. You know, one
of the things that you know about Max Holloway, and
you've seen time and tuff again, he's a volume guy,
right Like, he's not a big power puncher. Those fights
with Volkanovski are obviously, you know, really get evidence of that.
The fight with Galctators get evidence for that. The fight
with Brian Ortega is really good evidence for that. The
guy goes in there, he puts the pace on you,
he batters you, he's worked faster, he's got better cardio.
(36:01):
That's the stuff that he does. So yeah, no, I'm
staying away from negative eight fifty. You know, that's just
an absurd kind of number. You know, I think he
should be a huge favorite in this fight. But I
think if I'm looking for anything, I'm looking probably for overs.
I'm looking for Max Holloways by decision props. If you
can find somewhere that allows you to bet significant strikes.
He's gotta lay two hundred and fifty punches in this fight,
(36:23):
But bet the over on whatever that number is, so, like,
you know, I'm kind of leaning that way and you'll know,
you know, I'm seeing the number on the screen right now.
The over is is huge, got huge juice on it.
But I think that's where the only value is.
Speaker 1 (36:36):
Yeah, two forty five if you want to lay lay
that price tag for over two and a half rounds.
But it's much better than way in the eight fifty
if you think that the Green Zombie can be to
his nickname and take the punishment that Max is going
to dole out. Is there any danger because I'm trying
to find if anybody sees any danger. I mean, flukey
things have happened, right, But what could do Zombie do?
(36:59):
Is it right?
Speaker 5 (37:00):
Soul?
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Could he really say, all right, Dan, I'm gonna I'm
gonna go there and I'm gonna double a take down
this guy and try to take Max down to the ground.
Do you see a scenario there?
Speaker 6 (37:09):
No, So you know, Krianzavii's wrestling is underrated, right, like
his jiu jitsu is really good. He's got the twister
submission on Leonard Garcia from way back in the day,
and back in the day, like he did hit a
bunch of knockouts, which is what we made us all
love him, But he kind of came up with a
good wrestling in a good jiu jitsu game. With that
being said, Max Halloway is damn near impossible to take down.
The guy just doesn't get taken down because he has
(37:31):
such great control of space, such straight control of range.
You're never in close to his legs all that often.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
So I don't see that.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
I mean, like, if I'm drawing up a scenario for
him to win, it's a lucky punch, right, and even
then it's Max Holloway, Like who puts Max Holloway away?
So yeah, I think the only way that you play
this one is you play overs or you play Holloway
by the cards.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
All right, now that we got through the main event,
let's get back to the question that I should have
asked you right off the top. What fight is the
most intriguing to you? And then conversely, the one that
you really find the best value on here on a Tuesday,
Cassarra's versus.
Speaker 6 (38:05):
Jakantse is the one I'm most excited for it. I've
always been a big Giget Chikanse fan. I love the
way that he kicked boxes. I like that they're giving
him somebody in his return fight year after being away
for as long as he has that's long and rangy
like he is. I think that's going to give him
a chance to see if he's, you know, still what
we thought he was when he was making that run
through the division before he ran into Calvin Cator. I
(38:27):
think that that's a really exciting fight for value. I'm
finding tons of value on Cheaty and Chia Kawani. He's
fighting Michael olashejak Old of Sjack is a guy who's
there to be hit and cheating, and Jia Kawani almost
had Gregory Robo Kapara Grigez out of there before that comeback,
So you know, I think at Jikwani is a guy
who people sleep on how good his kickboxing is. And
(38:48):
I'm seeing him almost an even money right now. I
thought when I saw that fight announced, he would be
a big favorite in this fight. So seeing him that low,
I mean even on the money line. But if you
can find a ko prop too, that's probably in play
as well.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Might just minst dollar to two against Michael oh Here Michael
lol on a Tuesday minus dollar eighteen. I got to
get back to the Giga Chakatse fight because I'm right
there with you that the Blansfield Santos fight that we'll
talk about here as well, those are the two most
intriguing to me. I love Giga. I love the ascent
of Bruce Lee Roy. The way he's now respected mixed
(39:21):
martial artis right, not a guy that's just going in
there for crazy kicks and what have you. Is there
any danger there that because Casaras is now how do
I say this, It's almost like he's educated himself inside
the octagon, right? Could he be too hard to hit
for Giga? And if you don't take Casaras down and
stay standing, that could be an intriguing fifteen minutes potentially.
Speaker 6 (39:41):
Yeah, And you can Alsos say the exact same thing
about Giga Chakade, right, like, if you don't take him down,
where do you beat him? Because he is so good
in range and stuff like that. And that's what makes
this fight so exciting for me is I think they
do a lot of the same things. I think the
difference maker here for me and why I'm on Giga
Chakade is I just think because he's come up in
case because he came from that background. His control at
(40:03):
angles is just a little bit better, His control of
range is just a little bit better, his control of
where he's placing his punches is just a little bit
better than Cassaras. And I do like Cassara's I think
he's probably got a jiu jitsu advantage and a small
wrestling advantage. I just don't think the fight is ever
going to go there. So I'm leaning ever so slightly
with Chikanze, and it's just because I think he's ever
so slightly more.
Speaker 3 (40:23):
Nuanced on the feet.
Speaker 1 (40:25):
Great breakdown. I cannot wait for that fight, and I
mentioned earlier I can't wait for the Aaron Blansfield. I'll
tell you Santo's fight, and again I'll be curious to
see where this number goes Dan before we get there
to Friday morning, Saturday morning, however you want to phrase it,
What do you make of Blanchfield here? Now she's twenty four, right,
she feels like the star is really in the rise,
But so a census. I mean, in losing to Shipchenko,
(40:48):
some might say maybe she won that fight. I mean,
that's what we're talking about now. In the Flyway division,
and I have to assume the winner of this fight
is gonna get the title shot against the winner of
Grosso and Schivchenko in their rematch.
Speaker 6 (41:00):
Yeah, well, as long as that one doesn't wind up
in a trilogy, which would be a nightmare for the
winner of this fight, right, And if chef Schenko wins
that and we didn't wind up happened to do three?
Speaker 5 (41:08):
But yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 6 (41:09):
This is so intriguing for a number of reasons. Obviously,
this is probably the best pure grappler that Aaron Blanshield
has fought in her professional career for that matter, not
even just in the UFC. But I think that I
favor her in terms of how well she wrestles and
how oftense she is. Because while Talia Santos is a
really good grappler, and we saw really good stuff out
(41:30):
of her against Valentino Chefchenko. In fact, that why some
people thought she won that fight, she also concedes quite
a few takedowns, Like if you go back across her career,
and it's less so lately, but if you go back
across her career, you know, she conceded a couple of takedowns. Tomorrow,
Romero Barello, who wasn't you know, nobody really particularly thought
it was all that good of a wrestler. She did
spend almost five minutes on her back against Valentino Chefchenko
(41:52):
like and she has to really faced like a big, tough,
offensive wrestling machine like Aaron Blanchfield is as somebody who
got you know, heavy hips when she is on top.
You know, chef Schenko is good on top. But at
the same time we all know Valuneer to Shephchenko for
her striking. I don't think she's faced somebody like Blanchefield,
somebody like Blanchfield who is not easy to get off
(42:13):
of you when she is on top. And I don't
know that she's faced anybody with the submission skills, because again,
Volunteer Shoshenko great on top. We've seen her finish people
from you know, mount a crucifix and stuff like that,
but it's with her hands and in Really, Aaron Blanchfield
has some of the best jiu jitsu in all of
MMA right now. And I think really that's the difference
(42:34):
maker for me is I think she's just going to
be in enough offensive positions and she's gonna threaten enough
and stay on top enough that I think she's gonna
wind up being ahead on the judges' scorecards early. I
do really wish this was a five round fight, though,
I wish we could see what would happen in the
later rounds, because really that's all I'm really missing on
wondering what is the ceiling for Aaron Blanchfield.
Speaker 1 (42:55):
Well, and that you led me right to where I
wanted to go with my next question, which was, you're
looking at the total juiced heavy get a LA two
to sixty to go over two and a half rounds
without picking a winner. You can play minus two seventy
five for the fight to hit the cards for AW
three five round five, we might get to some finishing
potential because it's fifteen minutes to work. Do you think
that they're gonna that they're gonna almost have a stalemate there,
(43:16):
And that's why we don't really have a lot of
finishing potential for either woman.
Speaker 6 (43:20):
I think there is, but I will say the number,
being askewed as it is, I think there is value
on the under there. I think there's a chance Aaron
Blanchefield goes in there and gets her out of there,
you know, like she is such a good finisher when
she's after it. You know, she finishes Scan Drage finished
Molly McCann, which turned out to be a little easier
than we thought it was. But the fact of the
matter is that she goes in there and she's finished
(43:41):
people or the last couple of times out there, and
she knows what's at date, and she seems to push
for the finish more when she knows what's at stake.
Speaker 3 (43:48):
So I would say, with the.
Speaker 6 (43:50):
Line on the under being, you know, two to one
at this point in time, you know like there's probably
value there. And if you wanted to play Blanchefield by submission,
the number is high in up there that a sprinkle
isn't going to kill you either.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Plus four twenty five if you like Blanchefield via the
sub the overs, as Dan alluded to, there two to
one if you want to play the under without picking
a winner under two and a half rounds got about
thirty seconds ago. Were you doing hits overseas like in
France and across the world. What's going on here?
Speaker 6 (44:17):
Yeah, Well, you know, we've got a card coming up
in Paris. So I've got a couple of fighters, one
from Paris and one from Venice. Who will be on
the top Turn on the Day podcast in the coming week.
Speaker 1 (44:28):
That is a great plug, my friend. We we bonjour
all those good things over there in France. Dan, appreciate
you as always, my friend. To get up early and
everybody get up early, watch those fights, cash some tickets
and we'll see you next week. Right back here, it's
First Strike on vs and the Sports Betting Network.
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