October 31, 2023 • 44 mins
First Strike returns this week as the UFC heads to Brazil for UFC Sao Paulo!
Top 10 heavyweights meet this Saturday as Jailton Almeida meets Derrick Lewis in the main event!
Check out the full betting preview as we give all the fight analysis you need to make your best bets.
Dave Ross is joined this week by Lou Finocchiaro, Jordan Sherwood, Dan Vreeland, & Reed Kuhn.
You can also WATCH the show at VSiN on Youtube: https://youtu.be/jMNiPtpp7lk
Make sure to check out VSiN.com for more sports betting content!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
We begin first rike here on Visa I'm your host,
Dave Ross. But the next time we're gonna break down
a very interesting card we have over in Brazil. We've
got the return of the Black Beast, Derek Lewis gonna
take on the young heavyweight sensation in Jelton Almeeda Gonna
help break it down with Lou Finakarol standing by Jordan Sherwood,
Dan Breeland and Reid Koon. Since we last spoke, the
(00:37):
UFC has been off for a week, but boy, a
lot of changes in the fight game overall.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
John Jones is out, the fight with Steve Imocic is off,
so we have a new interim heavyweight championship that'll be
Tom asmall Is gonna take on Sergey Pavovich. That'll be
on the undercard the main card rather as a comin
event for UFC two ninety five. So we'll figure out
if we've seen John Jones the last of them in
the octagon, will he be back later on in twenty
twenty four, we will find out about all those twists
(01:05):
and turns. Without further ado, let's be and bring on
the Man Loup and Nikara You can follow him on
Twitter as I do or x as the kids call
Today at Gamblu. The host of About Business podcast Lou Finnikaro, Whoo, Lou,
we had a week off and all hell broke loose
and the evyweight division in the UFC. What do he
make a pavovitch an asthma? We'll break it down next
week here with the rest of the crew. But the
(01:27):
fact that Jones and Stepe is off, do you think
we'll see that.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Fight in twenty twenty four and do you want to
see it?
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Well?
Speaker 4 (01:35):
First of all, Dave, thanks so much for having me on. Yeah,
a lot of developments happening. I don't think anyone would
argue that after Jones and Miochich fought and left their
gloves in the cage, that this was going to be
the fight for the title. Anyway. I can't predict if
they'll fight. I don't know how they'll fight. I don't
(01:55):
think Stepe has the time and Jones has a you know,
pectoral muscle isn't anything silly, So you know, I can't
tell if they'll fight or not. I would say, and
I would bet that they don't. I would think things
move on without them aspinall shows, heart grit, guts. I'm
(02:15):
not sure how much IQ is stepping in on short notice.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
We're going to break down that fight again. That is
a huge development right now in the heavyweight division. Maybe
a future champion we're going to see on this card
this week in Jalelton Almeida, a guy used to be
lighte heavyweight moving up to heavyweight and really so far,
so good for Almeida is going to take on a
guy that's been there, done that, been in there with
the best. And Derek Lewis and the Black Beast. Here
(02:39):
before we break down this main event here, you have
some observations on just the overall card and maybe some
ways from a betting angle to attack.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
It, because this is what the UFC does.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
When we're in Brazil, You're going to see a lot
of Brazilians on the card.
Speaker 4 (02:53):
We are when we see fights from London, we see
London fighters in some occasions get favorable matchups. We were
just in Abu Dhabi last week and only two underdogs
hit one outsider. So when we look at this card,
thirteen fights, thirteen Brazil versus somebody from another part of
(03:15):
the world. Nine of the thirteen fights have Brazilians as favorites,
pretty good favorites, and most of those favorites, interestingly enough,
opened higher than they sit right now, meaning money has
come in on almost every occasion against the heavily favored
chalky Brazilian. So it should be very very interesting to
(03:37):
see what happens. But I think you have to begin
with the canvas painted to some degree that there's going
to be a pro Brazilian taint after the UFC wants
to return to Brazil continue its massive exportation of its
product in the heartland of its sport, Brazil, and I
(03:58):
think you're going to have to weed through to find
which of the Brazilians may not have such a favorable
matchup and which of the outsiders may have an advantage
either as an underdog or a slight favorite. To me,
that might come more on the undercard, Dave.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
And again we're going to get to some of those
picks that you have.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
And I know that you've already put some releases out
there in the Bout Business podcast, but in this main event,
when you look at Derek Lewis, and I mean when
this fight was announced, I went, oh, no, like Derek,
you want to fight this kid, when we know that
the last thing you want to do is have the
fight hit the ground. So again the handicapping here, I
made a five dollar betting favorite the comeback right now
in the black nieces plus three eighty. Is there any
(04:41):
other way than to play this if you want to
back the dog side Derek Lewis via KO because I
just can't see any possible way that this hits five
round decision and Derek Lewis could win it.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Yeah, I think I read it like you do, Dave.
You know I see the one and a half, the
unders minus three point fifty. Maybe you try and maybe
if if you feel the Beast is up for it,
maybe you see if the fight will start round two
when those props come out. But let's just consider this.
Almeida one is two thirty one, two thirty two. When
(05:16):
he hits the cage. The Beast struggles, has to cut
weight to make two sixty six, and he's aware that
his weakness is on the ground. So if there's a
path for the Beast, it's to by all means keep
the fight standing and keep Almeida off him. Now, when
he does that, he creates another issue, and that is
(05:37):
that Almeida is smaller, faster, quicker, younger, and he could
cut him to ribbons from the outside. I don't know
if the beast will be able to catch up to
him on the feet, but if you're looking for angles
to try and squeeze some value out of this fight,
that may be it to see if the beast can
make it to round two.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Yeah, there you go plus money if you think it
can get over around and a half of plus two
seventy five.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
And the books are always sharp, right.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And you really don't get that big of a discount
by taking Derek Lewis to win.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Via kot k or dq.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
It's just four to one and right now he's plus
three seventy so they've even tightened up those numbers there
for any other possible pathway.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
That being said, it can get dicey for method of victory.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
If we want to back the big favorite here, you
don't want to lay you that five dollars price tag here.
Kotk or dq is plus a dollar sixty sub froulmata,
which is a very plausible scenario if he gets Derek
Lewis down to the ground, is minus one ten for
the fight just inside the distance. Is that the way
you'd book it out made it to shorten it ever
so slightly.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Dave, I think in this situation, I'd get bold and
go to the submission, just because I do believe he
gets him down, and once he gets him down, he's
going to just crawl all over the top of him
and choke him or armbar him some way. I mean,
let's understand, if Derek Lewis is a to keep it
three four minutes even into the second round, he'll gas.
(07:03):
He doesn't have a lot of energy after that, and
for a large man, he's quite explosive, and when he tries,
and he will try, he's not I mean, he's there
to win. He's gonna try and catch uptail made it,
but it's going to cost him energy, and I believe
it's eventually going to cost him position, and position to
me means submission.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Lo.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Let's get to some picks that I know that you
already have in the bank roll for Saturday night in Brazil.
One of them on the main, Carbodolph of Vieira are
going to take on armand Petrojian And this is a
pretty tightly lined fight.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Here.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Are you gonna go with the with the non Brazilian
here and look, the Petrojian possible to get his arm raised.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
That's exactly what I'm gonna do, Dave. And I like
it because though Petrosian is relatively singularly dimensioned in that
he's a muy Thai striker and struggles on the ground,
I like who he's been in with. I like the
rests and the way I've seen him fight, and the
one thing I do believe in him is his conditioning
(08:06):
and his preparedness. On the other side, clearly Vieira is
going to be prepared to fight in front of the
home countryman, so he's going to be ready to go.
But he struggles mightily with gas and he's going to
be on fire for the first round. If we can
get our boy Arman to get this into the second round,
I think the fight really begins to turn towards his favor.
(08:29):
I believe he's the larger man that equates to take
down defense, and I think the Brazilian is going to
have a hard time penetrating the Muytai striking of the Trojan.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
And you mentioned there if you can hold up and
whether that's storm the over right now, Juice to the
over of two and a half rounds here plus a
dollar forty, But again, maybe the tide starts to turn
that second round, Lou with your handicap there, so maybe
look for those live wagering spots here. If Vierra comes
out like a house on fire like he normally does,
I want to get to the very first fight on
(09:02):
the card, because boy, it's always nice when you can
get to any card and get that winner right out.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Of the gate.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
And Mark Diacase is going to take on Fernandez here
at Calli Fernandez. What do you make of Mark in
this spot because I'm trying to see the numbers here
again on this one right now? Did case is small favorite?
Not anything out of pocket? Here at Montus dollar forty two?
Do you think he should be the favorite there?
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Dave?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
I think he should be. He has a wealth of experience.
If you look at his fights, You've seen some two
losses in his last two fights, but look at who
they were against Dia. Casey's extremely athletic, he's extremely skilled.
I think he's a dog backed into a corner and
they're giving him a fighter that's debuting that really comes
(09:49):
in from Shooto Brazil has has skilled, but I think
this has PhD and MMA written all over. And I
think Dia Casey has too much experience, too much athleticism,
and more important and when we get to the fighting,
too much wrestling. I think this is a great spot
for Diacasey, who opened one ninety minus one ninety five.
(10:11):
There's some money come in on the Brazilian, which is
just fine. I'll wait as long as I can and
watch that number go as low as it'll go before
I pounce on Diakasy. I believe he has advantage in this.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Fight very quickly.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
I know you don't want to lay a huge favorite,
so a lot of times you got renod Foccartina. If
you're a massive favorite against Dossantos in this spot he's
minus three sixty here. Is there another way that you
want to try to tack this or maybe look to
a two way parway at some point.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Yes, I really I'd like to have parlayed into him previously,
which I've done. But if you look at this card
and you look at specifically on the main event, there's
there's some heavy chalk. I would say if you took
him with the taller of the bond themes, which which
is Gabriel Abriel bonfiend, perhaps Farnik to re not for
(11:05):
lack of being able to pronounce.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
His last name.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
That may be a way to go, But I'm very
convinced that Renat wins this fight against a guy in
Elisia dos Santos that's skilled, but he's well older. He's
at the edge of his fighting career and really needs
to strike lightning to beat this Russian vice grip.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Yeah, factor Tenov doesn't roll off the tong very quickly
twenty seconds ago. Tell the people about the sneak teeth
that you have in About Business podcast.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
We're doing a quick ten minute opening line report every Monday.
Check gamblue dot com for details. Thanks so much for
having me on, Dave.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
Always enjoy the conversation, and I hope you enjoyed the
World Seriesly we heard you were there.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
When we come back, going to Chicago gets up with Jordan. Sure,
what next?
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Do you not forget on drafting Sportsbook This week, new
customers can bet just five hours, pocket two hundred and
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Speaker 2 (12:20):
The Crown Kids, it's all yours.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Let's go out to the great city of Chicago, where
we are joined each in every week by Jordan Sherwood.
You can follow him on x at Wood on ESPN
one thousand. Jordan, how is a summer in Chicago going?
Speaker 3 (12:37):
It is snowing.
Speaker 5 (12:40):
It has started to snow on Halloween as we're recording this. Yeah,
it's awful. It was seventy last week. Feel terrible. But yes,
winter is here, not coming. Winter is here.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I don't miss that.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Let's get to this fight guard down in Brazil's and again,
just ad looping to Carolyn, I think you guys are
in Unison, very first fight of the day to get
this thing started. Small favorite here, Mark Diakse, do you
think he should be a much bigger favorite.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
I think he's he's right in line with where he
should be. Maybe you slightly favor him a little bit
more based on his experience, based on you know, the
wrestling that he's going to be able to kind of
like rely on if it needs to be. And I
think it's recency biased too. Obviously he took a pretty
difficult loss and hasn't looked great. But I think that
that's where he's he's got. The advantage that Fernandez is
(13:36):
boxing is is is not as strong as I think
maybe people would would agree, and I think the Akis
could could match him on the feet, and then you know,
as this fight gets to the ground or gets into
the later rounds. We questioned Fernandez's gas tank. I don't
know if it's as good as people think it is
because prior to his you know, last couple of wins,
which had been inside the distance very early in his
(13:58):
regional fights.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
It's a it struggled into the later rounds.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
See case, He's been there before, He's been there with
some of the best it that the UFC has has
to offer. So I like him right now where he
is at like that dour sixty price. I see advantages
on the feet, a clear advantage on the ground, and
VA experience, and you might as well grab him, I
think before the public recognizes that, and that and that
value at least done him currently goes.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
Down and right now still even down at dollar forty
two that we're seeing here in DraftKings some pretty good
value today. Of course, once they see this Jeordan, They're
gonna run in the window and start betting on Mark
daksaying that number is going to go up. Also on
the on the edit card, whenever you have overkill Hill,
Angela Hill on the card, she's gonna take on Denise
Gombs here. You only like this if Angela Hill potentially
(14:44):
is a dog right now, She's a small dog at
plus a dollar five, what is that.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Handicap for you?
Speaker 1 (14:49):
It's like there's value there if you're getting plus money
on Angela Hill.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
There is, And maybe you could argue that if it's
a straight up, you know, pick him.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
I like Angela Hill as well.
Speaker 5 (14:58):
The issue that obviously with Gomes is that you know,
she's got power, uh you know, and she's obviously been
a spark plug. She showcased that her last couple of
appearances inside the UFC after kind of you know, flailing
a little bit in her UFC debut.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
Angela Hill has.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
Been in there with with the who's who in women's
mixed martial arts. We know what Angela Hill does. She
strikes with volume, She's got very good cardio and is gonna,
you know, and could get into a dog fight if
you need to be. I think the issue that maybe
the concern that people have is that she got you know,
beat up pretty bad in her last couple of fights.
(15:37):
But here's the thing, Like, she's not a fighter to
get stopped and not a fighter to get knocked out.
She's you know, elusive enough with in her striking uh
and fights smart, you know, fights out of danger. So
I think, like, look, you certainly have confidence that she
could go toe to toe and the last of three rounds.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Can she win the fight?
Speaker 5 (15:56):
Can she score those significant strikes as we get into
rounds two or three. I think that's where the question
you have to ask. I don't think this fight's going
to the ground in any way, shape or form. So
for me, a fighter that's been there, done that, I've
seen her go three rounds, I've seen her go five rounds,
and I've seen her never get knocked out. I like
her against a fighter that probably getting a little bit
(16:17):
more momentum because of how she's performed with those with
those early stoppages and the power that she has. But
I don't have confidence of Gums could go into the
later round.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
All right, So again via decision for Angela Hill, really
not that big a difference would you nibble it that
at plus a dollar twenty five for Hill via decision,
or just take the plus money at plus a dollar
five in case she does catch Denise with something.
Speaker 5 (16:39):
You know, I don't think I don't think that that
we're gonna see that from Angela Hill. I mean, certainly
she's a well versed fighter, but I like what you're
I'm picking up what you're putting down. The decision prop
is certainly probably a little bit more value. That's how
Angela Hill wins fights. That's how she liked we would
win this fight if you're on the hillside. So I
(17:00):
like that via decision you still had a little bit
more value to to the angel Hill side of things.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, there it is plus R twenty five. I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
I think that's the way to go if you're going
to be on the Angela Hill side. Let's get to
the comin event here, because I can't believe this. When
you look at Gabriel Bombfime massive favorite over Nicholas Dalby,
you think, do we have a live dog scenario for
the guy that's twelve years the senior of the young
undefeated fighter in Bonfieme?
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (17:27):
There is, And here's here's the reason that I believe that, yes,
Bompfime looks like a phenom fifteen to zero, all of
his you know, win streaks and all the submissions that
he's had, but a he hasn't shown me yet that
he could, you know, do win a fight and win
it striking. He's got to get the fight to the
ground and look for a submission.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
H B.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
Nicholas Dalby in his twenty seven mixed martial arts fights
never been submitted. Very good takedown defense and.
Speaker 6 (17:54):
A guy that's like, you know, he's seen a lot.
Speaker 5 (17:57):
You know, he's seen a lot in the regional scene
and obviously a couple of stints now in the UFC.
What's the fact he's won three fights in a row
and you know, I think again, you know, probably bomb
themes the right side to be on. If you could
find a value and a submission prop, good for you.
But he's way to a favorite. I don't buy the
Brazilian you know, home crowd being a factor. Dalby's been
(18:18):
everywhere in his mixed martial arts career. So a guy
that's gonna think have an advantage on the feet is
as tough as nails, and a guy that's never been
submitted and has been in there with some very good grapplers,
probably set the you know, skill for skill with Bomb fime.
If I'm on any side, straight up money line, I'm
on the Dalby side because I've seen him cash before
(18:40):
as an underdog.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
So you're not concerned a potentially three round fight that
if it goes to the cards, he doesn't get a
favorable decision being in Brazil.
Speaker 5 (18:49):
Oh no, come on, we could replay all these episodes
if we know how the judging in Brazil goes. I mean,
we could even talk about Abu Dhabi last week as well.
So yeah, I am I'm very big cert if it
goes there. But certainly, look if you if you got
Bomb team trying to get takedowns, Dalby's keeping on the
feed scoring a little bit, who knows what could happen.
(19:10):
The thing the look at is like, I just don't
think he's not a six dollar favorite, and I don't
think there's gonna be value with him via submission. So
Dalby has to be the side for me.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Let's talk about the other bonb theme in here.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Another big favorite, not as big as we see there
with Gabriel, but he's gonna be taking on from hell
Vince Pachell. Mom's not gonna like that nickname. I love,
it's one of the best in MMA. But again we've
got a lot of this right where the bomb themes
they're taking on. These older guys have kind of been there,
done that, like Vince Bachelle has. And you look at
Vince here in that mustache plus three eighty against Ismael
(19:46):
who's minus five hours. Is both bomb themes again just
overvalued in your estimation.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
I do. I think, yeah, in bomb theme he looks great.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
You know when he was in Brazil last against Terence McKinney,
you know, survived that first round, knocked him on the
second round, but then step up in competition Bene Saint Denis.
You know, you know he put him out of there
and put him out of there rather quickly. You know,
Pell's gonna give him the fight that he wants, a
stand up fight. I think that you know, certainly he's
well versed, could get this fight to the ground. Has
(20:16):
strong Cardio and I asked this, I just don't think
the bomb theme. The five fights that Paschelle has just
had in a row. Madson Hubbard, Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, Gregor Gillespie.
You know he went three and two of those fights.
I'm not sure Bonfien goes better than that, to be
honest with you. So I think the level of competition,
the fact that Pieschelle's gonna, you know, not a guy
(20:37):
that I think it's gonna be threatened by bomb themes
striking again worth a heavy look. And I understand that
there's a risk. There's a risk obviously with a lot
of these Brazilian fighters being in the card. You alluded
to it earlier, you know, questioning the judging scorecards. But
I think with Pachelle and Dalby, it's no respect to
the bomb Fime family probably not gonna get invited to
any Thanksgiving.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Dinners at their house. But I think both dogs are
the side here.
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Just because it's stylistic matchup the veteran, I'm not holding
a lot of water of the age gap. And I
think in particularly in this case, Michelle is going to
give bound Fing the fight he wants and I don't
think Thee's gonna be threatened in any way, shape or
for him.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
All Right, Britten has does a great job producing this show.
He gives me a rundown every week, and in this
one it just says Almeida via violence.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
That's your official call in the main event. Could you
please explain yourself, sir, Well, look, we.
Speaker 5 (21:28):
Love Derek Lewis, we love the Black Beasts. You know,
credits credit, it's due for taking this fight on short notice.
Gives him an opportunity to come right back into discussion
the heavyweight division. But I think Jeltine, I'll meet us,
I'll made a special. I think there's a reason why
he's showcasing and headlining this card, and we know Lewis
just just terrible off of his back, really can't get off.
I think Almada only needs one takedown to get it,
(21:50):
to get the fight where he wants it and get
a quick submission. So as long as I'll made a
you know of avoids that overhand right from Lewis, this
fight's going to be a wash. So uh, maybe it's
not like a violence, but I like, I can't text
Britain Almeida on the money line.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
That's not taxy or anything like that.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
So it's Almeida inside the distance, probably in round one
via submission.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
So let's just call it violence because we're recording this
again on Halloween.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
If there was a prop for Almeida via violence, I
would play at Jordan just in your honor. Only about
thirty seconds ago unnamed MMA podcast in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Don't know if you've mentioned it at all.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Have you already thought about what this heavyweight matchup is
gonna look like at UFC two ninety five, Now that's
a replacement to interrim title.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
Yeah, I look I like Sorde Pavlovich on the money line,
I still don't trust you know, Tom aspinall off of
his acl He looks great obviously against Taybura, you know
in his referm. But I Elevich is a different beast.
So I think at the money line plus money right now,
he's worth of the luck.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
We're going to talk a lot about that in the
coming week when we come back. Going to Boston next
with Dan Rieland on First Strike. Start your morning with
(23:11):
Vson's newest podcast, Vson Daily Morning Bets.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Joshappavam gives you every piece of info you.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Need to be ready for betting the day's biggest games
in just fifteen minutes. He discusses line movements, injuries, and
what you need to be looking at before you make
those wagers. So make vson Daily Morning Bets part of
your podcast and part of your morning routine. Download, subscribe
wherever you get said pods. A man who knows all
about podcasts is the one and only Dan Vrillian up
(23:36):
in Boston. You can follow him on X as I
do at gumb Bee, Vreeland and Dan. Before I get
to the question, I'd love to start off everything with
I'm sure on your plethora of pods and platforms here
in the MMA space, we had a week off, but
did we Because you have seen two ninety five just
got all blown up, just like UFC two ninety four
got blown up.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
What do you make of the changes? And I wonder
if you ever think we'll.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
See John Jones and Steve amocch ever in some sort
of quasi heavyweight championship match in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 7 (24:08):
I mean, I don't know if we will or we won't,
but I will say that I think the withdraw is
actually good for business. While like at the end of
the day, John Jones and Stepe is probably gonna sell
much better. I don't think anybody out there was trying
to fool themselves that those are the two best heavyweights
in the world. And like the fact that when John
Jones fell fell out that step A didn't stay in
(24:28):
the matchup. I mean, that's further proof that that was
not the right contender for the number one contendership. He's
just the right guy for John Jones to like ride
off into the sunset having beaten so like it was
a fun money match, but at the end of the day,
Tom Aspitall versus Seragey Pavlovich is infinitely more compelling to me.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
Excellent take. I think you're right on, and I know
we're not calling.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
You casuals out there, but for those that don't exactly
consume it like we might consume it, it is a
better heavyweight matchup, albeit for the interim champion. Now as
the co main event for UFC two ninety five, Okay,
let's get to this fight card down in Brazil. Dan,
you know I'm gonna ask you this, and I love
to ask you it each and every week. Your favorite
fight to watch and your favorite fight to wager on.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
So my favorite fight the watch is gonna be the
co main event. Nicholas Dalby versus is Gabriel ball theme.
I am mostly just excited to see Bomfeme get a
step up in competition. I've been a big Gabriel bomb
theme fan since he was on the regional scene.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
I think he's got.
Speaker 7 (25:26):
Tons of potential and giving him a guy who likes
to stand in his face and throw bombs in Nicholas
Dolby and has a high output and is gonna take
the best out of him. I really like what that's
gonna do, and hopefully he rises to the occasion. The
fight that I'm most excited to bet on, This one's
super easy. Angela Hill is plus money and I can't
believe Angela Hill is plus money against Denise Gomes. I
(25:48):
know people are super hyped on Tanise Gomes after she
scored some sweet knockouts, and.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
She did look really good in those knockouts. She knocked
out Brunta Brazil, somebody who I'm super high on.
Speaker 7 (25:57):
But the fact of the matter is, first of all,
Angela Hill near impossible to knock out, not particularly hard
to hit. Ian we're talking about Denise Gomes, somebody who
got out pointed by Loma Lukabuume, who is a much smaller,
less physical fighter than Angela Hill only a few fights ago. Right,
like Denise Gomes did not start her UFC career, you know,
just throwing haymakers and knocking people out. So she started
(26:19):
with having a tough time for fifteen minutes with Loma.
So if you're telling me she can't out point Loma
Luke Bume, if she's only the knockout power, I don't
think she's going to get the knockout on Angela Hill.
In the fact that you can get you know, plus
one to oh five on Angela Hill right now, Man,
that's a steal to me.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Let me ask you this though, Dan, because I do
and I'm always Look, when you have a fight card
in Brazil, you wonder if it does hit the judge
of scorecards. Here we go again, right, you can get
Angela Hill plus a dollar twenty five to win via
decision here.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Does that worry you at all?
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Because sometimes I say, Man, we got to remember, and
I know we do in the betting market where these
fights are taking place, when.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
We go to a fighter that we believe more than
likely is going to hit the cards.
Speaker 7 (27:00):
Yeah, I would say I worry a little bit about
her being in Brazil. I also just worry a little
bit about her being Angela Hill because she seems plagued
by having split decisions for her entire career.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
I know sometimes the props come out a little bit
later in the week and they're.
Speaker 7 (27:13):
Probably not out yet, but taking either side via split decision, oh,
would probably be a sweet play because I would imagine
Angela Hill could dominate this fight for three rounds and
a Brazilian judge could still give one of them to
Denisey Gomes. So I'd say either of them by split.
But I would also just say in general, like I
think Angela Hill is going to outpoint her in a
(27:36):
severe enough fashion that we don't have to worry about
the judges messing this up too bad.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
And let's get to the fight you can't wait to watch.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
And Nicholas Dolby a massive underdog here in the co
main event against Gabriel bon Fime as you alluded to here,
well over four dollars plus four forty at some places
Bonfieme's still undefeated. You gotta lay six to one if
you want to back to Brazilian here. We know that
Dobby's gonna be He's an exciting fighter to watch. Certainly
in the firefight. What style of fight is it going
(28:01):
to be just bombs away here for three rounds.
Speaker 7 (28:04):
You know, I kind of hope that what this does
is it forces Gabriel Ball and Theme to like throw
for a little bit and then realize, you know, like
maybe some of the better parts of his game are
is grappling, because you know, like, like like I said,
he can stand and trade with a lot of people.
I've had faith in him standing and trading with a
lot of people for a long time. But the smarter
play here is to get Delby grappling and to get
Dollby tired and to look for those submissions. I would
(28:26):
like to see him do a little bit of that.
I think he's a little bit unpredictable, which is probably
the thing that makes him the most exciting. But if
I was looking for a way to make that negative
six hundred look a little bit nicer, I'd probably just
play it safe and stay inside the distance or play
on the unders, because, like I think this fight is
going to end before the bell. I don't think Delby
is going to survive three rounds with him. I do
just think he's able to mix it up well enough
(28:48):
that like it worries me a little bit, so that
under one and a half at plus money looks pretty
good there, and are the over is on plus money,
so that under is, you know, just barely juiced a
little bit. But then I would probably look for, like,
you know, the inside the distance prop.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Let's get to the other bomb fiend brother in this
one and this male bombfieme. I think Gabriel's looked at
as maybe the better longer prospect as their careers go,
but he's also a sizable favor against from Helvin's Pichelle
here in this matchup again, it's very similar to the Coome.
We got a younger the Bomfied brothers, much younger twenty
seven against the guy now at forty in Pichelle.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
What do you make of this matchup here?
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I love the line on Pichelle.
Speaker 7 (29:29):
I think Vince Pichelle is a really smart underdog play here. Now,
if you told me get into your head picked the
winner at this fight, you know, like, I'm probably still
leaning with Ishmael, only ever so slightly. I think she's
he's getting juiced up way too high, mostly just because
he's Gabriel's brother. But we saw what happened to him
in his last fight. He got beat by a guy
who can wrestle. What is one thing we know Vince
(29:51):
Pichelle can do wrestle and not get tired. And if
you look at Vince Pachelle's losses, you can pretty much
go right down the list. In all of his losses,
he's losing two guys who can out wrestle him. I
don't think that's true of Ishmail Bond team. I don't
think he's got the wrestling of a Gregor Gillespie or
the arm triangle even of a Gregor Gillespie. You know,
like those are the people out there beating Vince Baeschell.
(30:13):
I don't think that's Ishmael.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
I want to get to a fight that I haven't
discussed yet in the program.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
It's Kaya Ohio against a magametof here maga metof over
a two dollars betting underdog. We know about Ohio and
kind of where I think that he could go in
this marketplace, right, a very marketable fighter. I know they
love him to shine in this middle a bout. Is
there danger working against a moose in this fight?
Speaker 7 (30:37):
So I think there's obviously danger in the power, right
Abusa maga Metoff in his very first fight comes out
gets that insanely fast knockout, then goes and fights Sean Strickland.
So we've got this like wide level of variation on him, right.
It is like we know, when he fights I'm not
gonna say bumps, but when he fights the lower level
fighters in the UFC, right, he has no problem and
(30:58):
can knock them out in ten second. When he fights
the middleweight champion of the world, he can't deal with
that pressure, he can't deal with that pace, he can't
deal with that cardio. And so it's hard to say
what happens in between there, right, Because Cabohyo is somewhere
in between the worst and the best in the division,
I tend to think he's closer to the best, and
(31:19):
I think he's a bad matchup for Mega Metoff because,
first of all, he brings that grappling in that wrestling
that has voted really well for him so far in
the UFC, and Mega Metov showed in his last fight
pace somebody being in your face tires him out. I
also think we just haven't really seen Kibohyo tagged by anybody,
and granted, the level of his competition definitely lower than
(31:40):
a boost Mega Metoff as well, but like he's safe
when it comes to his wrestling, he's safe when it
comes to his striking. He does things that are not
particularly risky. So I think we're gonna see this fight
on the map pretty early, and even if not on
the mat up against the cage enough that abus is
gonna have a lot of trouble with the Cardio in
the second and third round.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Yeah, fight against Strickland what an eye opener because Maga Metov,
if memory serves, was a small favorite in that fight,
and boy, he did not look ready at all for
the likes of Sean Strickland's gonna be interesting again in
Brazil against Kyakohio. Let's get to the main event. Derek Lewis,
He's not scared of anybody. We know that the beast
is ready to roll at all times. Cardio might be
another issue. Now you got a guy in Jelton Almeida,
(32:21):
and my goodness, you don't want to fight to hit
the ground. If it does, it just feels like it's over.
Lewis has been in there with guys like that before that.
The uh, the Curtis Blades fight.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Comes to mind.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
Can he can he do what he did he did
against blades and stuff enough and then find that uppercut
that ended that night early. Is there a puncher's chance
for the Black Beast.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
I think he's got to get it on the first shot.
Speaker 7 (32:45):
And the problem with the first shot against Jelton Almeida
is it's usually only ten seconds away. If you look
at how long it took him to shoot a takedown
in each of his first or I think we're five
or six fights now into his UFC career. The longest
time it has ever taking him to shoot a takedown
his fourteen second wow. And so like, if you think
that Derek Lewis is going to stuff a lot of takedowns,
(33:07):
he might get a little bit more time, but those
attempts are coming right away.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
Jelton is not shy about what he likes to do.
Speaker 7 (33:14):
Now, that of course, could mean that he's a little
bit on the predictable side for you know, Derek Lewis
to try to time one of those. But I really
think we're gonna see Jelton hit that takedown. His top
control is really good. I think you're gonna see him
get an arm triangle, you know, within the first minute
and the half of this fight.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Twenty seconds ago. Tell the people where they can find
you all the air.
Speaker 7 (33:32):
Yeah, check me out on the top Turtle MMA podcast
in the Sports Gambling Podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
Both in writing in their MMA podcast.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Dan appreciate you as always, my friend Cashing tickets will catch.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
Up again next week going to Washington, DC next with
Ae Goon.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
When you come back with us right here on first right,
(34:13):
we continue this edition at First Strike by going to
the Nation's cavel and we we are joined once again
by Ridcoon, the author of the book Fight Nomics. You
can follow him on x at the same title at
fight Nomics read. I'd like to do this every so often.
By the way, Shirt of the Year.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
Candidate there, Dad to the Bone. Pretty awesome for Halloween.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Here as we record this on a Tuesday, I want
to ask for those that are new to our show
right and they might not know fight Nomics and what
the whole concept is behind it, could you just kind
of explain to the newer viewers that we have exactly
how this was done.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
The data driven base that you've created for the UFC
and MMA.
Speaker 8 (34:54):
Yeah, well, the numbers came along a little over a
decade ago and actually started quantifying every that happens in
a fight, both from a discrete point of view like
how many times was a strike throwne, how many takedowns
were attempted, but also in terms of time and position,
So you're measuring who's on top, how long did they
stay there, did they try a submission? What are they
(35:15):
doing on the ground, what are they doing in the clinch?
You know who's in control, who's up against the fence.
So the benefit of having all this data is that
we now understand what is normal, what is unusual, what
is the average, what is the average by weight class,
and then we can zero in very quickly and say, hey,
this guy is clearly good in this way or he
is deficient in this other way, and that allows us
(35:36):
to identify some of those openings and opportunities offensively and defensively.
Speaker 1 (35:41):
Love it, it's great stuff, and we appreciate your insights
each and every week. When you get to the main event,
you've got a guy in Jailton Almeida who was.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
A white heavyweight.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
We've discussed this many times through the years, now about this,
and then you go up to heavyweight, and it looks
like a seamless transition here so far for Almeta. Right,
So you's going to be much lighter then his opponent
here in the black vast and Derek Lewis lewis pushing
about two sixty four. He's gotta cut to make the
weight sometimes. Almeida is kind of that blown up white heavyweight.
What are the data points showing you here? Should Almeida
(36:11):
be as big a favorite as he is? And right
now read that's a five hour betting favorite.
Speaker 8 (36:17):
Yeah, so this is like the ultimate striker versus grappler
in a sloppy heavyweight sense. You know, we've seen this
type of matchup many times and it's hard to pick
who's going to have the advantage strategically. But Derek Lewis
obviously only has a chance if he is able to
throw some leather or some knees. Either way, he needs
(36:37):
to be standing, whereas Almeida is finishing everyone on the
mat in short order, and so his his actual stats
look extreme, you know, not believable in the long run,
but with only twenty five minutes of not even twenty
five minutes of fight time so far in the UFC,
he keeps finishing people too quickly to a mass much data.
Derek Lewis has been around forever, and even some of
(36:59):
his fights will get out out of the first round.
But they back up what we're saying. They back up
that Lewis is definitely the striking threat. Almeida doesn't even
really use striking offensively. He uses it almost as a distraction,
just to set up the takedown. The guy only spends
four seconds out of each round standing at a distance
(37:19):
with an opponent. That means he wastes no time at
all closing the distance, even if it's to get you
up against the fence and eventually get you down or
to shoot at that takedown.
Speaker 6 (37:28):
So these are extreme metrics that you don't normally.
Speaker 8 (37:31):
See, but they paint the picture of this fight will
be interesting as long as they are staring at each
other from a distance.
Speaker 6 (37:38):
As soon as it gets to.
Speaker 8 (37:39):
The ground, I believe this will be over. And yes,
Almada should be a heavy favorite. He should be the
one getting the finish on the ground. He just can't
make a mistake like Marcos Riggeria Delima did against Lewis
just in that last fight.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
Well there, yo, there's the flying knee for everybody that
was on the Dilema side, and Lewis was the big
underdog that cashed that night as he came in, and
Lewis said after the fight, it wasn't like a trick
or a plan.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
It just kind of happened.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
And then all of a sudden, boom, there goes that
flying switch kick in and you know, switches to the
right knee and a knockout happens there.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So barring something like that, and again I go back.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
To the Curtis Blades fight where he was able to
stuff those takedowns a little bit to have the time
to be able to get that uppercut off. The books
aren't even giving you that big of an advantage. It's
only four to one for Lewis to win Vako. It's
plus three seventy overall. So I think even the books
realize he's only got one shot and that shot is
a lucky I don't want to call it lucky like Delima,
(38:38):
but something something in that manner.
Speaker 8 (38:41):
Yeah, they know what we're seeing in the numbers and
what we're seeing when we watch the highlight reel. That's
the only way Lewis wins here.
Speaker 6 (38:49):
He could still do it. I mean, it's not a
non zero probability.
Speaker 8 (38:52):
You know, you're talking like one in five but I
think you might get slightly better value if you just
take Almeta in the first round. I think that would
be my best possible play. Otherwise, there's a lot of parlay,
you know, fodder to choose here. You know, fight does
not go the distance under one point five al Mada
to win overall. Off to see where the props come in,
because not all of them have been released in my
(39:15):
market yet and so I haven't been looking at them
that closely. But Almeida round one or Almeida by submission
might be the only way to make this affordable.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Minus submission by submission rather as minus dollar ten right now.
Speaker 2 (39:28):
The under, by the way, is juice heavily to your point.
Speaker 3 (39:30):
Read.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
You still have to lay over three dollars here if
you want to play the under a round and a
half in that potential five round matchup. By the way,
if you really think somehow we're going to see zombie
apocalypse and we go all five fourteen to one, is
what you can't without picking a winner that this fight
goes the distance.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
I don't see that happening. Crazier things have happened, but
that would be crazy.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Let's get some of the fights that you like on
this car that you've already seen, maybe there's some value there.
Speaker 3 (39:54):
We're not.
Speaker 1 (39:54):
Facritinov is a rather sizable favorite here minus three sixty
against Aleski Santos, and right now does Santo's plus two
eighty five were seen on the comeback? Are the numbers
backing focrotin off here as that big sizable favorite they are?
Speaker 8 (40:11):
And like al Meda, we have a guy with very
limited sample size, but his numbers are extremely impressive. So
both striking and grappling, Renat is a monster. He is
knocking people down, he's landering with great accuracy, he has
excellent defense when he's on the feet, and then he
has a very aggressive ground game where he's been essentially
(40:32):
flawless on the ground in terms of controlling.
Speaker 6 (40:34):
People and getting them down. So to me, I look
at this. You know that's a limited resume. So clearly
he's been very successful in those few fights so far.
Speaker 8 (40:44):
But Dos Santos, I got to stack him up and say,
you know, can he compete with someone truly talented?
Speaker 6 (40:50):
And I think he has a better resume. He did
lose some.
Speaker 8 (40:53):
Time due to peds and he came off suspension, so
that's a red flag of You know, are some of
his metro from back then really believable because he actually
does have a pretty good fight roster in terms of
people he's beaten.
Speaker 6 (41:05):
But he does have liabilities.
Speaker 8 (41:07):
He's not as technical a striker, he's a little bit sloppier,
he's not as accurate, doesn't have good defense.
Speaker 6 (41:12):
He's been dropped five times. That's a big liability.
Speaker 8 (41:16):
Against someone who's very aggressive in they're striking, and his
ground game is not particularly impressive. Only thirty seven percent
of his time is actually in ground control, so you know,
an aggressive wrestler is going to be able to take
him down and hold him there. So I just see
a lot of angles to victory for Rena, and you know,
the line based on the sample size of stats, I
think my models are kind of baking that in. It's
(41:38):
saying urge a little bit of caution because this is
not a lot of data to work with, but it
is clearly favorable. So I do agree with him as
a big favorite, probably not enough to lay juice. I
might be looking for another prop angle like with Alnta
of a finish or just you know, using this guy
as yet another parlay leg on a few of these
chalky matchups.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
You know, in real time, I'm watching you start to
flash a little bit on the Rodrigo Nasimento Dantel Mays fight.
And Mays right now is plus a dollar fifty four,
not Smento minus a dollar eighty five. Do you think
there might be some value on the May side here
that the data showing.
Speaker 6 (42:14):
Yeah, I see this as a lot of.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
Back and forth.
Speaker 8 (42:17):
When I was looking at this between these heavyweights, you know,
one of them is a little bit better in one
area and the other one compliments it.
Speaker 6 (42:25):
Not a ton of ground action.
Speaker 8 (42:26):
I think Nasimento is clearly the more likely guy to
get ground control, and that's a concern, especially down in Brazil.
You don't want Mays just being a heavyweight lying on
his back like a beached whale doesn't know what to do.
Speaker 6 (42:39):
But on the feet, listen, Mays is dangerous, you know,
and he could drop Nossimento.
Speaker 8 (42:44):
Now. Simento doesn't have any knockdowns to his credit. He's
been dropped twice. And in terms of head strike avoidance
power strikes, what is your power strike defense? Nascimento is
the worst fighter arguably on this entire card. With a
decent sample size. So he's getting hit a lot, and
if you give May's a few strikes clean shots, I
(43:05):
think he can hurt someone. And so at plus money,
if you're getting plus one fifty, plus one sixty even
maybe even a knockout prop at an even higher.
Speaker 6 (43:14):
Price, I think there's some value there.
Speaker 8 (43:16):
And I'm I'm gonna be looking at some of those
prop angles and see where the price lands, because I
do think there's upset potential here.
Speaker 7 (43:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (43:22):
I went from plus a dollar sixty to plus a
dollar fifty four in the manner of our during the
time of our conversation. So they're picking up what you're
putting down and your numbers are showing there. Conversely, Angela Hill,
he's small underdog right now. Just over we've seeing about
plus a dollar five right now in her matchup here.
Normally that seems to be a green white ghost sign.
Is the data backing Angela Hill, even though she's got
(43:43):
to go on the road here and fight Gomes in Brazil?
Speaker 8 (43:47):
Yeah, yet another prospect in goem's very limited sample size,
But so far she has looked pretty clean. She does
have much more aggressive wrestling, and so that's a concern.
Hill has not spent a lot of time and control.
She used to be more of that muy Thai straight
up striker, and so that's a bit of a liability.
(44:07):
But when I see, first of all, there's a fifteen
year aged gap between these two fighters, that is one
of the most extreme in UFC history.
Speaker 6 (44:15):
Again, that is a red flag.
Speaker 8 (44:18):
But for a fighter like Hill, who's a veteran, generally
has crafty defense and tries to stay out of trouble,
I think she can hold her own. I think when
I see upset potential or someone who's not quite as
should be as big an underdog as she is, I'm
leaning towards the over I think he'll finds a.
Speaker 6 (44:36):
Way to stretch this fight.
Speaker 8 (44:38):
Even though Gomez looks more impressive on paper, I'm not
sure I believe those metrics yet.
Speaker 1 (44:42):
Great stuff as always from Reid kun Cast some tickets.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
We'll see you next week. Right back here, first Strike
on visa
We begin first rike here on Visa I'm your host,
Dave Ross. But the next time we're gonna break down
a very interesting card we have over in Brazil. We've
got the return of the Black Beast, Derek Lewis gonna
take on the young heavyweight sensation in Jelton Almeeda Gonna
help break it down with Lou Finakarol standing by Jordan Sherwood,
Dan Breeland and Reid Koon. Since we last spoke, the
(00:37):
UFC has been off for a week, but boy, a
lot of changes in the fight game overall.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
UFC two ninety five.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
John Jones is out, the fight with Steve Imocic is off,
so we have a new interim heavyweight championship that'll be
Tom asmall Is gonna take on Sergey Pavovich. That'll be
on the undercard the main card rather as a comin
event for UFC two ninety five. So we'll figure out
if we've seen John Jones the last of them in
the octagon, will he be back later on in twenty
twenty four, we will find out about all those twists
(01:05):
and turns. Without further ado, let's be and bring on
the Man Loup and Nikara You can follow him on
Twitter as I do or x as the kids call
Today at Gamblu. The host of About Business podcast Lou Finnikaro, Whoo, Lou,
we had a week off and all hell broke loose
and the evyweight division in the UFC. What do he
make a pavovitch an asthma? We'll break it down next
week here with the rest of the crew. But the
(01:27):
fact that Jones and Stepe is off, do you think
we'll see that.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Fight in twenty twenty four and do you want to
see it?
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Well?
Speaker 4 (01:35):
First of all, Dave, thanks so much for having me on. Yeah,
a lot of developments happening. I don't think anyone would
argue that after Jones and Miochich fought and left their
gloves in the cage, that this was going to be
the fight for the title. Anyway. I can't predict if
they'll fight. I don't know how they'll fight. I don't
(01:55):
think Stepe has the time and Jones has a you know,
pectoral muscle isn't anything silly, So you know, I can't
tell if they'll fight or not. I would say, and
I would bet that they don't. I would think things
move on without them aspinall shows, heart grit, guts. I'm
(02:15):
not sure how much IQ is stepping in on short notice.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
We're going to break down that fight again. That is
a huge development right now in the heavyweight division. Maybe
a future champion we're going to see on this card
this week in Jalelton Almeida, a guy used to be
lighte heavyweight moving up to heavyweight and really so far,
so good for Almeida is going to take on a
guy that's been there, done that, been in there with
the best. And Derek Lewis and the Black Beast. Here
(02:39):
before we break down this main event here, you have
some observations on just the overall card and maybe some
ways from a betting angle to attack.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
It, because this is what the UFC does.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
When we're in Brazil, You're going to see a lot
of Brazilians on the card.
Speaker 4 (02:53):
We are when we see fights from London, we see
London fighters in some occasions get favorable matchups. We were
just in Abu Dhabi last week and only two underdogs
hit one outsider. So when we look at this card,
thirteen fights, thirteen Brazil versus somebody from another part of
(03:15):
the world. Nine of the thirteen fights have Brazilians as favorites,
pretty good favorites, and most of those favorites, interestingly enough,
opened higher than they sit right now, meaning money has
come in on almost every occasion against the heavily favored
chalky Brazilian. So it should be very very interesting to
(03:37):
see what happens. But I think you have to begin
with the canvas painted to some degree that there's going
to be a pro Brazilian taint after the UFC wants
to return to Brazil continue its massive exportation of its
product in the heartland of its sport, Brazil, and I
(03:58):
think you're going to have to weed through to find
which of the Brazilians may not have such a favorable
matchup and which of the outsiders may have an advantage
either as an underdog or a slight favorite. To me,
that might come more on the undercard, Dave.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
And again we're going to get to some of those
picks that you have.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
And I know that you've already put some releases out
there in the Bout Business podcast, but in this main event,
when you look at Derek Lewis, and I mean when
this fight was announced, I went, oh, no, like Derek,
you want to fight this kid, when we know that
the last thing you want to do is have the
fight hit the ground. So again the handicapping here, I
made a five dollar betting favorite the comeback right now
in the black nieces plus three eighty. Is there any
(04:41):
other way than to play this if you want to
back the dog side Derek Lewis via KO because I
just can't see any possible way that this hits five
round decision and Derek Lewis could win it.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Yeah, I think I read it like you do, Dave.
You know I see the one and a half, the
unders minus three point fifty. Maybe you try and maybe
if if you feel the Beast is up for it,
maybe you see if the fight will start round two
when those props come out. But let's just consider this.
Almeida one is two thirty one, two thirty two. When
(05:16):
he hits the cage. The Beast struggles, has to cut
weight to make two sixty six, and he's aware that
his weakness is on the ground. So if there's a
path for the Beast, it's to by all means keep
the fight standing and keep Almeida off him. Now, when
he does that, he creates another issue, and that is
(05:37):
that Almeida is smaller, faster, quicker, younger, and he could
cut him to ribbons from the outside. I don't know
if the beast will be able to catch up to
him on the feet, but if you're looking for angles
to try and squeeze some value out of this fight,
that may be it to see if the beast can
make it to round two.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Yeah, there you go plus money if you think it
can get over around and a half of plus two
seventy five.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
And the books are always sharp, right.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
And you really don't get that big of a discount
by taking Derek Lewis to win.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Via kot k or dq.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
It's just four to one and right now he's plus
three seventy so they've even tightened up those numbers there
for any other possible pathway.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
That being said, it can get dicey for method of victory.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
If we want to back the big favorite here, you
don't want to lay you that five dollars price tag here.
Kotk or dq is plus a dollar sixty sub froulmata,
which is a very plausible scenario if he gets Derek
Lewis down to the ground, is minus one ten for
the fight just inside the distance. Is that the way
you'd book it out made it to shorten it ever
so slightly.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Dave, I think in this situation, I'd get bold and
go to the submission, just because I do believe he
gets him down, and once he gets him down, he's
going to just crawl all over the top of him
and choke him or armbar him some way. I mean,
let's understand, if Derek Lewis is a to keep it
three four minutes even into the second round, he'll gas.
(07:03):
He doesn't have a lot of energy after that, and
for a large man, he's quite explosive, and when he tries,
and he will try, he's not I mean, he's there
to win. He's gonna try and catch uptail made it,
but it's going to cost him energy, and I believe
it's eventually going to cost him position, and position to
me means submission.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
Lo.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Let's get to some picks that I know that you
already have in the bank roll for Saturday night in Brazil.
One of them on the main, Carbodolph of Vieira are
going to take on armand Petrojian And this is a
pretty tightly lined fight.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
Here.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Are you gonna go with the with the non Brazilian
here and look, the Petrojian possible to get his arm raised.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
That's exactly what I'm gonna do, Dave. And I like
it because though Petrosian is relatively singularly dimensioned in that
he's a muy Thai striker and struggles on the ground,
I like who he's been in with. I like the
rests and the way I've seen him fight, and the
one thing I do believe in him is his conditioning
(08:06):
and his preparedness. On the other side, clearly Vieira is
going to be prepared to fight in front of the
home countryman, so he's going to be ready to go.
But he struggles mightily with gas and he's going to
be on fire for the first round. If we can
get our boy Arman to get this into the second round,
I think the fight really begins to turn towards his favor.
(08:29):
I believe he's the larger man that equates to take
down defense, and I think the Brazilian is going to
have a hard time penetrating the Muytai striking of the Trojan.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
And you mentioned there if you can hold up and
whether that's storm the over right now, Juice to the
over of two and a half rounds here plus a
dollar forty, But again, maybe the tide starts to turn
that second round, Lou with your handicap there, so maybe
look for those live wagering spots here. If Vierra comes
out like a house on fire like he normally does,
I want to get to the very first fight on
(09:02):
the card, because boy, it's always nice when you can
get to any card and get that winner right out.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Of the gate.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
And Mark Diacase is going to take on Fernandez here
at Calli Fernandez. What do you make of Mark in
this spot because I'm trying to see the numbers here
again on this one right now? Did case is small favorite?
Not anything out of pocket? Here at Montus dollar forty two?
Do you think he should be the favorite there?
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Dave?
Speaker 4 (09:27):
I think he should be. He has a wealth of experience.
If you look at his fights, You've seen some two
losses in his last two fights, but look at who
they were against Dia. Casey's extremely athletic, he's extremely skilled.
I think he's a dog backed into a corner and
they're giving him a fighter that's debuting that really comes
(09:49):
in from Shooto Brazil has has skilled, but I think
this has PhD and MMA written all over. And I
think Dia Casey has too much experience, too much athleticism,
and more important and when we get to the fighting,
too much wrestling. I think this is a great spot
for Diacasey, who opened one ninety minus one ninety five.
(10:11):
There's some money come in on the Brazilian, which is
just fine. I'll wait as long as I can and
watch that number go as low as it'll go before
I pounce on Diakasy. I believe he has advantage in this.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Fight very quickly.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
I know you don't want to lay a huge favorite,
so a lot of times you got renod Foccartina. If
you're a massive favorite against Dossantos in this spot he's
minus three sixty here. Is there another way that you
want to try to tack this or maybe look to
a two way parway at some point.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
Yes, I really I'd like to have parlayed into him previously,
which I've done. But if you look at this card
and you look at specifically on the main event, there's
there's some heavy chalk. I would say if you took
him with the taller of the bond themes, which which
is Gabriel Abriel bonfiend, perhaps Farnik to re not for
(11:05):
lack of being able to pronounce.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
His last name.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
That may be a way to go, But I'm very
convinced that Renat wins this fight against a guy in
Elisia dos Santos that's skilled, but he's well older. He's
at the edge of his fighting career and really needs
to strike lightning to beat this Russian vice grip.
Speaker 1 (11:27):
Yeah, factor Tenov doesn't roll off the tong very quickly
twenty seconds ago. Tell the people about the sneak teeth
that you have in About Business podcast.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
We're doing a quick ten minute opening line report every Monday.
Check gamblue dot com for details. Thanks so much for
having me on, Dave.
Speaker 1 (11:42):
Always enjoy the conversation, and I hope you enjoyed the
World Seriesly we heard you were there.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
When we come back, going to Chicago gets up with Jordan. Sure,
what next?
Speaker 1 (12:07):
Do you not forget on drafting Sportsbook This week, new
customers can bet just five hours, pocket two hundred and
bonus bets instantly, Plus all customers can get another sweat
staining game parlay every single day down with the app.
He's a promo code visa in when you sign up
drafting sportsbook.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
The Crown Kids, it's all yours.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Let's go out to the great city of Chicago, where
we are joined each in every week by Jordan Sherwood.
You can follow him on x at Wood on ESPN
one thousand. Jordan, how is a summer in Chicago going?
Speaker 3 (12:37):
It is snowing.
Speaker 5 (12:40):
It has started to snow on Halloween as we're recording this. Yeah,
it's awful. It was seventy last week. Feel terrible. But yes,
winter is here, not coming. Winter is here.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I don't miss that.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Let's get to this fight guard down in Brazil's and again,
just ad looping to Carolyn, I think you guys are
in Unison, very first fight of the day to get
this thing started. Small favorite here, Mark Diakse, do you
think he should be a much bigger favorite.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
I think he's he's right in line with where he
should be. Maybe you slightly favor him a little bit
more based on his experience, based on you know, the
wrestling that he's going to be able to kind of
like rely on if it needs to be. And I
think it's recency biased too. Obviously he took a pretty
difficult loss and hasn't looked great. But I think that
that's where he's he's got. The advantage that Fernandez is
(13:36):
boxing is is is not as strong as I think
maybe people would would agree, and I think the Akis
could could match him on the feet, and then you know,
as this fight gets to the ground or gets into
the later rounds. We questioned Fernandez's gas tank. I don't
know if it's as good as people think it is
because prior to his you know, last couple of wins,
which had been inside the distance very early in his
(13:58):
regional fights.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
It's a it struggled into the later rounds.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
See case, He's been there before, He's been there with
some of the best it that the UFC has has
to offer. So I like him right now where he
is at like that dour sixty price. I see advantages
on the feet, a clear advantage on the ground, and
VA experience, and you might as well grab him, I
think before the public recognizes that, and that and that
value at least done him currently goes.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
Down and right now still even down at dollar forty
two that we're seeing here in DraftKings some pretty good
value today. Of course, once they see this Jeordan, They're
gonna run in the window and start betting on Mark
daksaying that number is going to go up. Also on
the on the edit card, whenever you have overkill Hill,
Angela Hill on the card, she's gonna take on Denise
Gombs here. You only like this if Angela Hill potentially
(14:44):
is a dog right now, She's a small dog at
plus a dollar five, what is that.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Handicap for you?
Speaker 1 (14:49):
It's like there's value there if you're getting plus money
on Angela Hill.
Speaker 5 (14:53):
There is, And maybe you could argue that if it's
a straight up, you know, pick him.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
I like Angela Hill as well.
Speaker 5 (14:58):
The issue that obviously with Gomes is that you know,
she's got power, uh you know, and she's obviously been
a spark plug. She showcased that her last couple of
appearances inside the UFC after kind of you know, flailing
a little bit in her UFC debut.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
Angela Hill has.
Speaker 5 (15:15):
Been in there with with the who's who in women's
mixed martial arts. We know what Angela Hill does. She
strikes with volume, She's got very good cardio and is gonna,
you know, and could get into a dog fight if
you need to be. I think the issue that maybe
the concern that people have is that she got you know,
beat up pretty bad in her last couple of fights.
(15:37):
But here's the thing, Like, she's not a fighter to
get stopped and not a fighter to get knocked out.
She's you know, elusive enough with in her striking uh
and fights smart, you know, fights out of danger. So
I think, like, look, you certainly have confidence that she
could go toe to toe and the last of three rounds.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Can she win the fight?
Speaker 5 (15:56):
Can she score those significant strikes as we get into
rounds two or three. I think that's where the question
you have to ask. I don't think this fight's going
to the ground in any way, shape or form. So
for me, a fighter that's been there, done that, I've
seen her go three rounds, I've seen her go five rounds,
and I've seen her never get knocked out. I like
her against a fighter that probably getting a little bit
(16:17):
more momentum because of how she's performed with those with
those early stoppages and the power that she has. But
I don't have confidence of Gums could go into the
later round.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
All right, So again via decision for Angela Hill, really
not that big a difference would you nibble it that
at plus a dollar twenty five for Hill via decision,
or just take the plus money at plus a dollar
five in case she does catch Denise with something.
Speaker 5 (16:39):
You know, I don't think I don't think that that
we're gonna see that from Angela Hill. I mean, certainly
she's a well versed fighter, but I like what you're
I'm picking up what you're putting down. The decision prop
is certainly probably a little bit more value. That's how
Angela Hill wins fights. That's how she liked we would
win this fight if you're on the hillside. So I
(17:00):
like that via decision you still had a little bit
more value to to the angel Hill side of things.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Yeah, there it is plus R twenty five. I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
I think that's the way to go if you're going
to be on the Angela Hill side. Let's get to
the comin event here, because I can't believe this. When
you look at Gabriel Bombfime massive favorite over Nicholas Dalby,
you think, do we have a live dog scenario for
the guy that's twelve years the senior of the young
undefeated fighter in Bonfieme?
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (17:27):
There is, And here's here's the reason that I believe that, yes,
Bompfime looks like a phenom fifteen to zero, all of
his you know, win streaks and all the submissions that
he's had, but a he hasn't shown me yet that
he could, you know, do win a fight and win
it striking. He's got to get the fight to the
ground and look for a submission.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
H B.
Speaker 5 (17:48):
Nicholas Dalby in his twenty seven mixed martial arts fights
never been submitted. Very good takedown defense and.
Speaker 6 (17:54):
A guy that's like, you know, he's seen a lot.
Speaker 5 (17:57):
You know, he's seen a lot in the regional scene
and obviously a couple of stints now in the UFC.
What's the fact he's won three fights in a row
and you know, I think again, you know, probably bomb
themes the right side to be on. If you could
find a value and a submission prop, good for you.
But he's way to a favorite. I don't buy the
Brazilian you know, home crowd being a factor. Dalby's been
(18:18):
everywhere in his mixed martial arts career. So a guy
that's gonna think have an advantage on the feet is
as tough as nails, and a guy that's never been
submitted and has been in there with some very good grapplers,
probably set the you know, skill for skill with Bomb fime.
If I'm on any side, straight up money line, I'm
on the Dalby side because I've seen him cash before
(18:40):
as an underdog.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
So you're not concerned a potentially three round fight that
if it goes to the cards, he doesn't get a
favorable decision being in Brazil.
Speaker 5 (18:49):
Oh no, come on, we could replay all these episodes
if we know how the judging in Brazil goes. I mean,
we could even talk about Abu Dhabi last week as well.
So yeah, I am I'm very big cert if it
goes there. But certainly, look if you if you got
Bomb team trying to get takedowns, Dalby's keeping on the
feed scoring a little bit, who knows what could happen.
(19:10):
The thing the look at is like, I just don't
think he's not a six dollar favorite, and I don't
think there's gonna be value with him via submission. So
Dalby has to be the side for me.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Let's talk about the other bonb theme in here.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Another big favorite, not as big as we see there
with Gabriel, but he's gonna be taking on from hell
Vince Pachell. Mom's not gonna like that nickname. I love,
it's one of the best in MMA. But again we've
got a lot of this right where the bomb themes
they're taking on. These older guys have kind of been there,
done that, like Vince Bachelle has. And you look at
Vince here in that mustache plus three eighty against Ismael
(19:46):
who's minus five hours. Is both bomb themes again just
overvalued in your estimation.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
I do. I think, yeah, in bomb theme he looks great.
Speaker 5 (19:56):
You know when he was in Brazil last against Terence McKinney,
you know, survived that first round, knocked him on the
second round, but then step up in competition Bene Saint Denis.
You know, you know he put him out of there
and put him out of there rather quickly. You know,
Pell's gonna give him the fight that he wants, a
stand up fight. I think that you know, certainly he's
well versed, could get this fight to the ground. Has
(20:16):
strong Cardio and I asked this, I just don't think
the bomb theme. The five fights that Paschelle has just
had in a row. Madson Hubbard, Miller, Roosevelt Roberts, Gregor Gillespie.
You know he went three and two of those fights.
I'm not sure Bonfien goes better than that, to be
honest with you. So I think the level of competition,
the fact that Pieschelle's gonna, you know, not a guy
(20:37):
that I think it's gonna be threatened by bomb themes
striking again worth a heavy look. And I understand that
there's a risk. There's a risk obviously with a lot
of these Brazilian fighters being in the card. You alluded
to it earlier, you know, questioning the judging scorecards. But
I think with Pachelle and Dalby, it's no respect to
the bomb Fime family probably not gonna get invited to
any Thanksgiving.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
Dinners at their house. But I think both dogs are
the side here.
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Just because it's stylistic matchup the veteran, I'm not holding
a lot of water of the age gap. And I
think in particularly in this case, Michelle is going to
give bound Fing the fight he wants and I don't
think Thee's gonna be threatened in any way, shape or
for him.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
All Right, Britten has does a great job producing this show.
He gives me a rundown every week, and in this
one it just says Almeida via violence.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
That's your official call in the main event. Could you
please explain yourself, sir, Well, look, we.
Speaker 5 (21:28):
Love Derek Lewis, we love the Black Beasts. You know,
credits credit, it's due for taking this fight on short notice.
Gives him an opportunity to come right back into discussion
the heavyweight division. But I think Jeltine, I'll meet us,
I'll made a special. I think there's a reason why
he's showcasing and headlining this card, and we know Lewis
just just terrible off of his back, really can't get off.
I think Almada only needs one takedown to get it,
(21:50):
to get the fight where he wants it and get
a quick submission. So as long as I'll made a
you know of avoids that overhand right from Lewis, this
fight's going to be a wash. So uh, maybe it's
not like a violence, but I like, I can't text
Britain Almeida on the money line.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
That's not taxy or anything like that.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
So it's Almeida inside the distance, probably in round one
via submission.
Speaker 3 (22:13):
So let's just call it violence because we're recording this
again on Halloween.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
If there was a prop for Almeida via violence, I
would play at Jordan just in your honor. Only about
thirty seconds ago unnamed MMA podcast in Chicago.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Don't know if you've mentioned it at all.
Speaker 1 (22:25):
Have you already thought about what this heavyweight matchup is
gonna look like at UFC two ninety five, Now that's
a replacement to interrim title.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
Yeah, I look I like Sorde Pavlovich on the money line,
I still don't trust you know, Tom aspinall off of
his acl He looks great obviously against Taybura, you know
in his referm. But I Elevich is a different beast.
So I think at the money line plus money right now,
he's worth of the luck.
Speaker 1 (22:47):
We're going to talk a lot about that in the
coming week when we come back. Going to Boston next
with Dan Rieland on First Strike. Start your morning with
(23:11):
Vson's newest podcast, Vson Daily Morning Bets.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Joshappavam gives you every piece of info you.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Need to be ready for betting the day's biggest games
in just fifteen minutes. He discusses line movements, injuries, and
what you need to be looking at before you make
those wagers. So make vson Daily Morning Bets part of
your podcast and part of your morning routine. Download, subscribe
wherever you get said pods. A man who knows all
about podcasts is the one and only Dan Vrillian up
(23:36):
in Boston. You can follow him on X as I
do at gumb Bee, Vreeland and Dan. Before I get
to the question, I'd love to start off everything with
I'm sure on your plethora of pods and platforms here
in the MMA space, we had a week off, but
did we Because you have seen two ninety five just
got all blown up, just like UFC two ninety four
got blown up.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
What do you make of the changes? And I wonder
if you ever think we'll.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
See John Jones and Steve amocch ever in some sort
of quasi heavyweight championship match in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 7 (24:08):
I mean, I don't know if we will or we won't,
but I will say that I think the withdraw is
actually good for business. While like at the end of
the day, John Jones and Stepe is probably gonna sell
much better. I don't think anybody out there was trying
to fool themselves that those are the two best heavyweights
in the world. And like the fact that when John
Jones fell fell out that step A didn't stay in
(24:28):
the matchup. I mean, that's further proof that that was
not the right contender for the number one contendership. He's
just the right guy for John Jones to like ride
off into the sunset having beaten so like it was
a fun money match, but at the end of the day,
Tom Aspitall versus Seragey Pavlovich is infinitely more compelling to me.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
Excellent take. I think you're right on, and I know
we're not calling.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
You casuals out there, but for those that don't exactly
consume it like we might consume it, it is a
better heavyweight matchup, albeit for the interim champion. Now as
the co main event for UFC two ninety five, Okay,
let's get to this fight card down in Brazil. Dan,
you know I'm gonna ask you this, and I love
to ask you it each and every week. Your favorite
fight to watch and your favorite fight to wager on.
Speaker 7 (25:12):
So my favorite fight the watch is gonna be the
co main event. Nicholas Dalby versus is Gabriel ball theme.
I am mostly just excited to see Bomfeme get a
step up in competition. I've been a big Gabriel bomb
theme fan since he was on the regional scene.
Speaker 3 (25:25):
I think he's got.
Speaker 7 (25:26):
Tons of potential and giving him a guy who likes
to stand in his face and throw bombs in Nicholas
Dolby and has a high output and is gonna take
the best out of him. I really like what that's
gonna do, and hopefully he rises to the occasion. The
fight that I'm most excited to bet on, This one's
super easy. Angela Hill is plus money and I can't
believe Angela Hill is plus money against Denise Gomes. I
(25:48):
know people are super hyped on Tanise Gomes after she
scored some sweet knockouts, and.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
She did look really good in those knockouts. She knocked
out Brunta Brazil, somebody who I'm super high on.
Speaker 7 (25:57):
But the fact of the matter is, first of all,
Angela Hill near impossible to knock out, not particularly hard
to hit. Ian we're talking about Denise Gomes, somebody who
got out pointed by Loma Lukabuume, who is a much smaller,
less physical fighter than Angela Hill only a few fights ago. Right,
like Denise Gomes did not start her UFC career, you know,
just throwing haymakers and knocking people out. So she started
(26:19):
with having a tough time for fifteen minutes with Loma.
So if you're telling me she can't out point Loma
Luke Bume, if she's only the knockout power, I don't
think she's going to get the knockout on Angela Hill.
In the fact that you can get you know, plus
one to oh five on Angela Hill right now, Man,
that's a steal to me.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Let me ask you this though, Dan, because I do
and I'm always Look, when you have a fight card
in Brazil, you wonder if it does hit the judge
of scorecards. Here we go again, right, you can get
Angela Hill plus a dollar twenty five to win via
decision here.
Speaker 2 (26:47):
Does that worry you at all?
Speaker 1 (26:48):
Because sometimes I say, Man, we got to remember, and
I know we do in the betting market where these
fights are taking place, when.
Speaker 2 (26:55):
We go to a fighter that we believe more than
likely is going to hit the cards.
Speaker 7 (27:00):
Yeah, I would say I worry a little bit about
her being in Brazil. I also just worry a little
bit about her being Angela Hill because she seems plagued
by having split decisions for her entire career.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
I know sometimes the props come out a little bit
later in the week and they're.
Speaker 7 (27:13):
Probably not out yet, but taking either side via split decision, oh,
would probably be a sweet play because I would imagine
Angela Hill could dominate this fight for three rounds and
a Brazilian judge could still give one of them to
Denisey Gomes. So I'd say either of them by split.
But I would also just say in general, like I
think Angela Hill is going to outpoint her in a
(27:36):
severe enough fashion that we don't have to worry about
the judges messing this up too bad.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
And let's get to the fight you can't wait to watch.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
And Nicholas Dolby a massive underdog here in the co
main event against Gabriel bon Fime as you alluded to here,
well over four dollars plus four forty at some places
Bonfieme's still undefeated. You gotta lay six to one if
you want to back to Brazilian here. We know that
Dobby's gonna be He's an exciting fighter to watch. Certainly
in the firefight. What style of fight is it going
(28:01):
to be just bombs away here for three rounds.
Speaker 7 (28:04):
You know, I kind of hope that what this does
is it forces Gabriel Ball and Theme to like throw
for a little bit and then realize, you know, like
maybe some of the better parts of his game are
is grappling, because you know, like, like like I said,
he can stand and trade with a lot of people.
I've had faith in him standing and trading with a
lot of people for a long time. But the smarter
play here is to get Delby grappling and to get
Dollby tired and to look for those submissions. I would
(28:26):
like to see him do a little bit of that.
I think he's a little bit unpredictable, which is probably
the thing that makes him the most exciting. But if
I was looking for a way to make that negative
six hundred look a little bit nicer, I'd probably just
play it safe and stay inside the distance or play
on the unders, because, like I think this fight is
going to end before the bell. I don't think Delby
is going to survive three rounds with him. I do
just think he's able to mix it up well enough
(28:48):
that like it worries me a little bit, so that
under one and a half at plus money looks pretty
good there, and are the over is on plus money,
so that under is, you know, just barely juiced a
little bit. But then I would probably look for, like,
you know, the inside the distance prop.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Let's get to the other bomb fiend brother in this
one and this male bombfieme. I think Gabriel's looked at
as maybe the better longer prospect as their careers go,
but he's also a sizable favor against from Helvin's Pichelle
here in this matchup again, it's very similar to the Coome.
We got a younger the Bomfied brothers, much younger twenty
seven against the guy now at forty in Pichelle.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
What do you make of this matchup here?
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I love the line on Pichelle.
Speaker 7 (29:29):
I think Vince Pichelle is a really smart underdog play here. Now,
if you told me get into your head picked the
winner at this fight, you know, like, I'm probably still
leaning with Ishmael, only ever so slightly. I think she's
he's getting juiced up way too high, mostly just because
he's Gabriel's brother. But we saw what happened to him
in his last fight. He got beat by a guy
who can wrestle. What is one thing we know Vince
(29:51):
Pichelle can do wrestle and not get tired. And if
you look at Vince Pachelle's losses, you can pretty much
go right down the list. In all of his losses,
he's losing two guys who can out wrestle him. I
don't think that's true of Ishmail Bond team. I don't
think he's got the wrestling of a Gregor Gillespie or
the arm triangle even of a Gregor Gillespie. You know,
like those are the people out there beating Vince Baeschell.
(30:13):
I don't think that's Ishmael.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
I want to get to a fight that I haven't
discussed yet in the program.
Speaker 1 (30:18):
It's Kaya Ohio against a magametof here maga metof over
a two dollars betting underdog. We know about Ohio and
kind of where I think that he could go in
this marketplace, right, a very marketable fighter. I know they
love him to shine in this middle a bout. Is
there danger working against a moose in this fight?
Speaker 7 (30:37):
So I think there's obviously danger in the power, right
Abusa maga Metoff in his very first fight comes out
gets that insanely fast knockout, then goes and fights Sean Strickland.
So we've got this like wide level of variation on him, right.
It is like we know, when he fights I'm not
gonna say bumps, but when he fights the lower level
fighters in the UFC, right, he has no problem and
(30:58):
can knock them out in ten second. When he fights
the middleweight champion of the world, he can't deal with
that pressure, he can't deal with that pace, he can't
deal with that cardio. And so it's hard to say
what happens in between there, right, Because Cabohyo is somewhere
in between the worst and the best in the division,
I tend to think he's closer to the best, and
(31:19):
I think he's a bad matchup for Mega Metoff because,
first of all, he brings that grappling in that wrestling
that has voted really well for him so far in
the UFC, and Mega Metov showed in his last fight
pace somebody being in your face tires him out. I
also think we just haven't really seen Kibohyo tagged by anybody,
and granted, the level of his competition definitely lower than
(31:40):
a boost Mega Metoff as well, but like he's safe
when it comes to his wrestling, he's safe when it
comes to his striking. He does things that are not
particularly risky. So I think we're gonna see this fight
on the map pretty early, and even if not on
the mat up against the cage enough that abus is
gonna have a lot of trouble with the Cardio in
the second and third round.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Yeah, fight against Strickland what an eye opener because Maga Metov,
if memory serves, was a small favorite in that fight,
and boy, he did not look ready at all for
the likes of Sean Strickland's gonna be interesting again in
Brazil against Kyakohio. Let's get to the main event. Derek Lewis,
He's not scared of anybody. We know that the beast
is ready to roll at all times. Cardio might be
another issue. Now you got a guy in Jelton Almeida,
(32:21):
and my goodness, you don't want to fight to hit
the ground. If it does, it just feels like it's over.
Lewis has been in there with guys like that before that.
The uh, the Curtis Blades fight.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
Comes to mind.
Speaker 1 (32:32):
Can he can he do what he did he did
against blades and stuff enough and then find that uppercut
that ended that night early. Is there a puncher's chance
for the Black Beast.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
I think he's got to get it on the first shot.
Speaker 7 (32:45):
And the problem with the first shot against Jelton Almeida
is it's usually only ten seconds away. If you look
at how long it took him to shoot a takedown
in each of his first or I think we're five
or six fights now into his UFC career. The longest
time it has ever taking him to shoot a takedown
his fourteen second wow. And so like, if you think
that Derek Lewis is going to stuff a lot of takedowns,
(33:07):
he might get a little bit more time, but those
attempts are coming right away.
Speaker 3 (33:11):
Jelton is not shy about what he likes to do.
Speaker 7 (33:14):
Now, that of course, could mean that he's a little
bit on the predictable side for you know, Derek Lewis
to try to time one of those. But I really
think we're gonna see Jelton hit that takedown. His top
control is really good. I think you're gonna see him
get an arm triangle, you know, within the first minute
and the half of this fight.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Twenty seconds ago. Tell the people where they can find
you all the air.
Speaker 7 (33:32):
Yeah, check me out on the top Turtle MMA podcast
in the Sports Gambling Podcast Network.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
Both in writing in their MMA podcast.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Dan appreciate you as always, my friend Cashing tickets will catch.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
Up again next week going to Washington, DC next with
Ae Goon.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
When you come back with us right here on first right,
(34:13):
we continue this edition at First Strike by going to
the Nation's cavel and we we are joined once again
by Ridcoon, the author of the book Fight Nomics. You
can follow him on x at the same title at
fight Nomics read. I'd like to do this every so often.
By the way, Shirt of the Year.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
Candidate there, Dad to the Bone. Pretty awesome for Halloween.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Here as we record this on a Tuesday, I want
to ask for those that are new to our show
right and they might not know fight Nomics and what
the whole concept is behind it, could you just kind
of explain to the newer viewers that we have exactly
how this was done.
Speaker 2 (34:49):
The data driven base that you've created for the UFC
and MMA.
Speaker 8 (34:54):
Yeah, well, the numbers came along a little over a
decade ago and actually started quantifying every that happens in
a fight, both from a discrete point of view like
how many times was a strike throwne, how many takedowns
were attempted, but also in terms of time and position,
So you're measuring who's on top, how long did they
stay there, did they try a submission? What are they
(35:15):
doing on the ground, what are they doing in the clinch?
You know who's in control, who's up against the fence.
So the benefit of having all this data is that
we now understand what is normal, what is unusual, what
is the average, what is the average by weight class,
and then we can zero in very quickly and say, hey,
this guy is clearly good in this way or he
is deficient in this other way, and that allows us
(35:36):
to identify some of those openings and opportunities offensively and defensively.
Speaker 1 (35:41):
Love it, it's great stuff, and we appreciate your insights
each and every week. When you get to the main event,
you've got a guy in Jailton Almeida who was.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
A white heavyweight.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
We've discussed this many times through the years, now about this,
and then you go up to heavyweight, and it looks
like a seamless transition here so far for Almeta. Right,
So you's going to be much lighter then his opponent
here in the black vast and Derek Lewis lewis pushing
about two sixty four. He's gotta cut to make the
weight sometimes. Almeida is kind of that blown up white heavyweight.
What are the data points showing you here? Should Almeida
(36:11):
be as big a favorite as he is? And right
now read that's a five hour betting favorite.
Speaker 8 (36:17):
Yeah, so this is like the ultimate striker versus grappler
in a sloppy heavyweight sense. You know, we've seen this
type of matchup many times and it's hard to pick
who's going to have the advantage strategically. But Derek Lewis
obviously only has a chance if he is able to
throw some leather or some knees. Either way, he needs
(36:37):
to be standing, whereas Almeida is finishing everyone on the
mat in short order, and so his his actual stats
look extreme, you know, not believable in the long run,
but with only twenty five minutes of not even twenty
five minutes of fight time so far in the UFC,
he keeps finishing people too quickly to a mass much data.
Derek Lewis has been around forever, and even some of
(36:59):
his fights will get out out of the first round.
But they back up what we're saying. They back up
that Lewis is definitely the striking threat. Almeida doesn't even
really use striking offensively. He uses it almost as a distraction,
just to set up the takedown. The guy only spends
four seconds out of each round standing at a distance
(37:19):
with an opponent. That means he wastes no time at
all closing the distance, even if it's to get you
up against the fence and eventually get you down or
to shoot at that takedown.
Speaker 6 (37:28):
So these are extreme metrics that you don't normally.
Speaker 8 (37:31):
See, but they paint the picture of this fight will
be interesting as long as they are staring at each
other from a distance.
Speaker 6 (37:38):
As soon as it gets to.
Speaker 8 (37:39):
The ground, I believe this will be over. And yes,
Almada should be a heavy favorite. He should be the
one getting the finish on the ground. He just can't
make a mistake like Marcos Riggeria Delima did against Lewis
just in that last fight.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
Well there, yo, there's the flying knee for everybody that
was on the Dilema side, and Lewis was the big
underdog that cashed that night as he came in, and
Lewis said after the fight, it wasn't like a trick
or a plan.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
It just kind of happened.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
And then all of a sudden, boom, there goes that
flying switch kick in and you know, switches to the
right knee and a knockout happens there.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So barring something like that, and again I go back.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
To the Curtis Blades fight where he was able to
stuff those takedowns a little bit to have the time
to be able to get that uppercut off. The books
aren't even giving you that big of an advantage. It's
only four to one for Lewis to win Vako. It's
plus three seventy overall. So I think even the books
realize he's only got one shot and that shot is
a lucky I don't want to call it lucky like Delima,
(38:38):
but something something in that manner.
Speaker 8 (38:41):
Yeah, they know what we're seeing in the numbers and
what we're seeing when we watch the highlight reel. That's
the only way Lewis wins here.
Speaker 6 (38:49):
He could still do it. I mean, it's not a
non zero probability.
Speaker 8 (38:52):
You know, you're talking like one in five but I
think you might get slightly better value if you just
take Almeta in the first round. I think that would
be my best possible play. Otherwise, there's a lot of parlay,
you know, fodder to choose here. You know, fight does
not go the distance under one point five al Mada
to win overall. Off to see where the props come in,
because not all of them have been released in my
(39:15):
market yet and so I haven't been looking at them
that closely. But Almeida round one or Almeida by submission
might be the only way to make this affordable.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Minus submission by submission rather as minus dollar ten right now.
Speaker 2 (39:28):
The under, by the way, is juice heavily to your point.
Speaker 3 (39:30):
Read.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
You still have to lay over three dollars here if
you want to play the under a round and a
half in that potential five round matchup. By the way,
if you really think somehow we're going to see zombie
apocalypse and we go all five fourteen to one, is
what you can't without picking a winner that this fight
goes the distance.
Speaker 2 (39:46):
I don't see that happening. Crazier things have happened, but
that would be crazy.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Let's get some of the fights that you like on
this car that you've already seen, maybe there's some value there.
Speaker 3 (39:54):
We're not.
Speaker 1 (39:54):
Facritinov is a rather sizable favorite here minus three sixty
against Aleski Santos, and right now does Santo's plus two
eighty five were seen on the comeback? Are the numbers
backing focrotin off here as that big sizable favorite they are?
Speaker 8 (40:11):
And like al Meda, we have a guy with very
limited sample size, but his numbers are extremely impressive. So
both striking and grappling, Renat is a monster. He is
knocking people down, he's landering with great accuracy, he has
excellent defense when he's on the feet, and then he
has a very aggressive ground game where he's been essentially
(40:32):
flawless on the ground in terms of controlling.
Speaker 6 (40:34):
People and getting them down. So to me, I look
at this. You know that's a limited resume. So clearly
he's been very successful in those few fights so far.
Speaker 8 (40:44):
But Dos Santos, I got to stack him up and say,
you know, can he compete with someone truly talented?
Speaker 6 (40:50):
And I think he has a better resume. He did
lose some.
Speaker 8 (40:53):
Time due to peds and he came off suspension, so
that's a red flag of You know, are some of
his metro from back then really believable because he actually
does have a pretty good fight roster in terms of
people he's beaten.
Speaker 6 (41:05):
But he does have liabilities.
Speaker 8 (41:07):
He's not as technical a striker, he's a little bit sloppier,
he's not as accurate, doesn't have good defense.
Speaker 6 (41:12):
He's been dropped five times. That's a big liability.
Speaker 8 (41:16):
Against someone who's very aggressive in they're striking, and his
ground game is not particularly impressive. Only thirty seven percent
of his time is actually in ground control, so you know,
an aggressive wrestler is going to be able to take
him down and hold him there. So I just see
a lot of angles to victory for Rena, and you know,
the line based on the sample size of stats, I
think my models are kind of baking that in. It's
(41:38):
saying urge a little bit of caution because this is
not a lot of data to work with, but it
is clearly favorable. So I do agree with him as
a big favorite, probably not enough to lay juice. I
might be looking for another prop angle like with Alnta
of a finish or just you know, using this guy
as yet another parlay leg on a few of these
chalky matchups.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
You know, in real time, I'm watching you start to
flash a little bit on the Rodrigo Nasimento Dantel Mays fight.
And Mays right now is plus a dollar fifty four,
not Smento minus a dollar eighty five. Do you think
there might be some value on the May side here
that the data showing.
Speaker 6 (42:14):
Yeah, I see this as a lot of.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
Back and forth.
Speaker 8 (42:17):
When I was looking at this between these heavyweights, you know,
one of them is a little bit better in one
area and the other one compliments it.
Speaker 6 (42:25):
Not a ton of ground action.
Speaker 8 (42:26):
I think Nasimento is clearly the more likely guy to
get ground control, and that's a concern, especially down in Brazil.
You don't want Mays just being a heavyweight lying on
his back like a beached whale doesn't know what to do.
Speaker 6 (42:39):
But on the feet, listen, Mays is dangerous, you know,
and he could drop Nossimento.
Speaker 8 (42:44):
Now. Simento doesn't have any knockdowns to his credit. He's
been dropped twice. And in terms of head strike avoidance
power strikes, what is your power strike defense? Nascimento is
the worst fighter arguably on this entire card. With a
decent sample size. So he's getting hit a lot, and
if you give May's a few strikes clean shots, I
(43:05):
think he can hurt someone. And so at plus money,
if you're getting plus one fifty, plus one sixty even
maybe even a knockout prop at an even higher.
Speaker 6 (43:14):
Price, I think there's some value there.
Speaker 8 (43:16):
And I'm I'm gonna be looking at some of those
prop angles and see where the price lands, because I
do think there's upset potential here.
Speaker 7 (43:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (43:22):
I went from plus a dollar sixty to plus a
dollar fifty four in the manner of our during the
time of our conversation. So they're picking up what you're
putting down and your numbers are showing there. Conversely, Angela Hill,
he's small underdog right now. Just over we've seeing about
plus a dollar five right now in her matchup here.
Normally that seems to be a green white ghost sign.
Is the data backing Angela Hill, even though she's got
(43:43):
to go on the road here and fight Gomes in Brazil?
Speaker 8 (43:47):
Yeah, yet another prospect in goem's very limited sample size,
But so far she has looked pretty clean. She does
have much more aggressive wrestling, and so that's a concern.
Hill has not spent a lot of time and control.
She used to be more of that muy Thai straight
up striker, and so that's a bit of a liability.
(44:07):
But when I see, first of all, there's a fifteen
year aged gap between these two fighters, that is one
of the most extreme in UFC history.
Speaker 6 (44:15):
Again, that is a red flag.
Speaker 8 (44:18):
But for a fighter like Hill, who's a veteran, generally
has crafty defense and tries to stay out of trouble,
I think she can hold her own. I think when
I see upset potential or someone who's not quite as
should be as big an underdog as she is, I'm
leaning towards the over I think he'll finds a.
Speaker 6 (44:36):
Way to stretch this fight.
Speaker 8 (44:38):
Even though Gomez looks more impressive on paper, I'm not
sure I believe those metrics yet.
Speaker 1 (44:42):
Great stuff as always from Reid kun Cast some tickets.
Speaker 2 (44:45):
We'll see you next week. Right back here, first Strike
on visa
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