Best of Follow the Money | April 17, 2024

The best segments from Wednesday's show!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You always follow the money, That's what you always follow.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Paul Howard on VSON.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Here we go.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
It is Follow the Money on VSON, the Sports Betting Network.
This show is brought to you by Draft Kings Mitch
Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel, who was in for
the vacationing Paulie Howard. As we are live in downtown
Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and Casino Fun Show
on Tap today of course NBA Playoffs, Shenanigan's last night

(00:31):
in the NHL. What a wild night that was on
the ice. We have NFL Draft props, Today's Major League
Baseball card, and great guests on the program today as well. JBT,
As you're filling in for PAULI this week, how you
feel in late night NBA action? Quick turnaround for you today?

Speaker 4 (00:48):
Pal? It is? It is.

Speaker 5 (00:49):
But every time I get to do this, I get
the honor of filling in. I just go through the
week feeling dead inside and then I catch up on
like Saturday.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
Is that what you do?

Speaker 4 (00:57):
Yeah? Like that's pretty much out of this So.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
It's probably a pretty good game plan.

Speaker 5 (01:00):
Yeah, family doesn't get much of me. You're out the week.
But you guys get my one. That's all that matters.

Speaker 1 (01:05):
Today's going to be fun. I misplaced my glasses last night.
So I've talked about this before. I used to have
like twenty fifteen. I could spot dimes across the sports book.

Speaker 4 (01:14):
Okay, it was crazy. You're talking about money.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
Right, Let's just see. The vision has eroded over the years, right,
I don't know where they are, so good luck to
me today. I mean up the stuff up close, no chance.
I'm okay driving without the glasses, and I can see
like the screens and stuff like that are in front
of us right here in the studio.

Speaker 5 (01:32):
So you're far sided. It's always the hope out what
it is. Yeah, So like if you're far sided, that's
how I understand it. You can see things far away,
but you cannot see things close to you.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
All I know is it up close. No chance on
the phone and the laptop and the stuff in front
of me. Right now. E gonna be dicey today. So
we got you for three hours. We're going to try
our best. It's going to be an a effort. I'll
tell you that though.

Speaker 5 (01:53):
Today That's why I'm here, I got my contacts in.
I may or may not have accidentally fall asleeping with
them on last night, so they're glued in.

Speaker 4 (02:00):
I'm ready to go.

Speaker 1 (02:01):
We'll get into the non a effort that the Warriors
gave in the second half last night here in a
couple of minutes. But the Lakers, they did get past
the Pelicans last night. And yes, they were up by
seventeen points in the third quarter, and before he could blink,
the Pelicans hit them with a pretty significant run, and
then they tied it late. And then how about the
timing with the Pelicans individually now that we're talking about

(02:24):
Zion had to leave the game, and they scored one
hundred and six points. He had forty of them. Yep,
So he was a man on a mission last night.
The only guy who could really do anything offensively for
New Orleans. Ingram was on the bench for the final
almost eight minutes, still injured evidently, and then McCollum was

(02:45):
a total non factor in the game. But they came
roaring back, tied it and then all that happened.

Speaker 5 (02:49):
Yeah, that was tough, look, I thought. So the moment
he goes down was about like three and a half
minutes left to go. A little bit less than that,
he hits like a floater over Anthony Davis that goes
in and ties it. When that shot went down, was
like all the Lakers are gonna lose this thing. He
looked unstoppable. Lebron was missing him on back cuts, he
was just driving past guys. He was getting physical with
Anthony Davis and winning some of those matchups, and he

(03:10):
looked awesome and narratively right. It's after all of these
no shows essentially for the Pelicans and him against the
Los Angeles Lakers, and so then you get this and figured.

Speaker 4 (03:19):
Like this is going to be it.

Speaker 5 (03:20):
But then you see the frustration immediately By the way,
they're only calling it soreness, which I don't really buy.
Like his reaction coupled with the fact that he never
came back, you feel like it's a little bit more
than just soreness. But the fact that he goes down
your only source of offense. You mentioned Ingram, who checks
out with seven and a half minutes left to go,
never gets back into a game at which they ultimately tie.
It was just this confluence of events that allowed the

(03:41):
Lakers to really squeak by and get out of this
thing against New Orleans.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
How they blow that leads.

Speaker 5 (03:47):
I think there was a couple of things, Like, first off,
Danzel Russell was awesome in the first half. He was
hitting every single three point shot.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
In fact, if it wasn't for him, there was a
chance they were going to be dead and buried in
that first half.

Speaker 5 (03:57):
I would agree with that, And the Lakers are are
a pretty solid three point shooting team, but the fact
that all of those were going down early on, and
you and I had mentioned when we talked about this
matchup yesterday, one of the driving factors behind the Lakers'
success is the fact that they were killing the pay
at the Pelicans in the paint in the regular season.

Speaker 4 (04:12):
They're getting nothing within four feet of the basket in
this matchup.

Speaker 5 (04:15):
So the fact that you kind of supplanted that with
some three point shooting was really good. But once that
dried up, their offense wasn't really doing that much. So
then you allow the Pelicans to get back in it,
you're getting empty possessions Like that's what I was watching.
I watched the Lakers offense that all of a sudden
had nothing, and they allowed the Pelicans to get right
back into seeing Pelicans were awesome. They were twenty three
or thirty four within four feet of the basket, so

(04:35):
sixty seven percent at the rim, and they drew six
shooting fouls like they were great, just killing them in
the paint. And then Zion gets out.

Speaker 1 (04:42):
The Lakers offense was really good for that stretch. When
they fell behind early, they came roaring back to take
that big lead, and then when they built it up
to seventeen, it was really really effective. And then it
just went kind of bubby and it vanished and then
they held on. And now they get the Denver Nuggets
now in round one, and they opened up well, let
me put it this way, Denver opened up in the
four dollars or minus four point fifty rangees a favorite

(05:04):
in that series. Before there was some i think pretty
immediate buyback on the Lakers to bring it down a
little bit. And now at DraftKings they have the Lakers
at minus checked out the Nuggets at minus three ten
to win this thing. Yeah, and this has not gone
well for the Lakers over the last couple of years,
nor has it gone well for Anthony Davis in a
spot against the Joker and Denver either.

Speaker 5 (05:26):
No, not at all, And I think like when you're
when you look at this matchup. I made the joke
yesterday I was texting with some folks here at the network,
where you know when people are going to try to
make the case here for the Lakers to win this series,
and obviously there is a case to make, but I
think overall this mismatches is a little it's a mismatch
and it works in favor of Denver. And when you're
watching Jose Alvarado destroy guys like Austin Reeves and D'Angelo

(05:49):
Russell off the dribble yesterday, a big reason why they
were able to come back. That's not really something that
I think bodes well in the series against the Denver Nuggets,
who have a pretty good backcourt play, especially led by
Jamal Murray. And one of the things that the Lakers
did very sneakily throughout this throughout this regular season, which
was they sacrificed defense for offense. They were post All

(06:10):
Star break twenty second in non garbage time defensive efficiency.
You know, you're playing Daniel Russ, you're playing Austin Reeves,
you're playing Spencer Dinwity, and you do that to get
your offense better, and it has gotten a lot better,
but you're just not really great along the perimeter. And
so when you're talking about this the inability to stop
Nikal Yokich, which nobody does, I'm sure everybody's going to get,
you know, hot and heavy about the fact that they
remember they figured them out last year defensively, despite the

(06:32):
fact that they got swept, they figured something out there
against Yokis and putting ru Hatchamore on them. So maybe
they go back to that again, but I don't. I
don't think you have anything that kind of changes from
a defensive game plan here for a guy like Jokich
that dominated him last season.

Speaker 1 (06:44):
Remember last year, Game one in the playoffs felt like
the Lakers maybe could have won that game against Denver,
and then even when they dropped the second game, they
were going back to La. I was on the air.
I had the Lake at forty seven to one to
win the West last year bottom when they were awful
in the regular season, and I remember saying in the

(07:06):
year I haven't hedged yet and I'm not going to
all come back. I'm pretty confident the Lakers are going
to win the next two at home whoops.

Speaker 4 (07:12):
Yeah, that was a.

Speaker 1 (07:13):
Four game sweep at the hands of the eventual champions.

Speaker 4 (07:15):
Hey, it was.

Speaker 5 (07:16):
It was the most competitive sweep in basketball history. As
people were coming when.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
People were losing their minds last year after the Lakers
nearly one game one.

Speaker 5 (07:23):
Oh yeah, I mean we saw I think that. I
don't know if we have of that the like I
was making fun of it. We all have bad ones,
but these are funny, like Jamel Hill nick Wright tweeting
out after the game one like that.

Speaker 4 (07:33):
You know, I don't know, I'd feel like I'm down.

Speaker 5 (07:35):
One nothing after that matchup, you know, after they figured
this out, Like I like this one from Jamil hillis
from last year. I wins to win, but if I'm
never I treated it like a loss. Lakers really figured
something out and putting on somewhere on Jokic. That's one
of those somewhat small adjustments that could win a series.
Nick Wright had the same thing too. It was essentially like,
oh yeah, heard it, Bette props. The Yolkis were playing
essentially perfect offensive basketball, and that's just enough to get

(07:55):
to win. But if a win ever felt like a
loss and vice versa, this was it. The Lakers have
to feel great. They lost the next three, Yeah, and
then it.

Speaker 1 (08:03):
Did not go well for the Lakers in the next three.
In fact, they got worse when they went back to
La No. Now, will this be a four game sweep?

Speaker 5 (08:10):
No, Look, I think the Lakers have gotten better, especially
as you know, we talked about you do sacrifice defense
for offense. But the offense is very good and D'Angel
Russell seems to have kind of it's weird at this
point of his career, but really come into his own
and played a lot better and kind of figured out
his role with this team. Obviously we know Austin Reeves
can be very good, and the bench is a little
bit better from an offensive standpoint. So I think the

(08:30):
Lakers have gotten much better. So, you know, you go
from last year they got swept. No, I don't think
that that's going to be a sweep. I think they're
going to be much more competitive and losing five games
oh in.

Speaker 1 (08:38):
Five is yet okay. So I think a big storyline
going into the series is going to be free throws, right,
because it always comes up the Lakers shoot and make
more free throws than anybody in the league. It happened
again last night they made twenty six. New Orleans made eleven.
Willie Green, the head coach for the Pelicans. Of course,
he was asked about it after the game. Here you go, I.

Speaker 3 (08:57):
Don't feel like we've gotten a great whistwall season. That's
just that's how I feel when I watch the games.
We're one of the teams that dominate the paint night
in and night out. We have a physical, dominant force
in Zion along with others, and it just seems like
we're not getting those calls.

Speaker 1 (09:17):
Is he on something there? JBT? Specifically with the game
last night, dominating the paint, zion A had forty and
yet here you go, they're not shooting free throws. They're
not even going to the free throw line that much.

Speaker 5 (09:26):
Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I would agree
with the All season they were tenth and free throw right,
just over twenty free throws for every one hundred field
goal attempt, So maybe you felt like you needed more,
but they were top ten team there. But last night
I think I think you could kind of agree with
that for the most part. Like when you're challenging the
paint as much as they were yesterday, you probably should
draw some more fouls, and you usually do. I mean,

(09:46):
it's kind of like the Zach Edy conversation rights, but
it's defensively, It's like, there's no way Zach Edy only
averages like less than two thousand a game the way
he plays, it doesn't happen if you call it the
right way. And it's the same thing here where if
you're getting to the paint as often as you are,
you probably should be generating some more free throws. And again,
you know, there were some inconsistencies with the ability to
play physically, but then at times in the fourth quarter,

(10:07):
call them some tiki tak nonsense, right, that allows a
team to rack ups some foulsand get to the bonus
whatever it is. So I don't think that for me
there was anything glaring, but I will say it is
kind of surprising when you see a team take thirty
four attempts at the rim, nineteen inside of fourteen feet,
and then they come away with just eleven makes at
the free throw line and fifteen total attempts.

Speaker 4 (10:26):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (10:27):
Yeah, So now moving forward here, the Kings went on
five against the Repelicans this year. It's the first time
an NBA team went on five against an opponent since
the mid nineties, and well, the Pelicans are now one
and a half point favorites in this game at DraftKings.
I mean, you just don't know, right, I have no
idea what's going to happen here. They play Friday by

(10:47):
the way they.

Speaker 5 (10:48):
Play Friday, and you don't know what's happening with Zion.
And as we kind of mentioned, if you read Willy
Green's comments yesterday about brandon Ingram, who again checked out
with seven and a half minutes left, didn't get back
into a game that was tied at one point later
in the fourth quarter and says like I felt like
I didn't want to push it with him. He only
came back in the regular season finale. Like that's kind
of worrisome. I do think there's a reality which you're
looking at this going and playing New or Lers and

(11:09):
be Sacramento, and while you're at home, you could be
without Zion Williamson and brandon Ingram or brandon Ingram on
like a twenty five minute pitch count, which is not great.

Speaker 1 (11:17):
So both these teams really not even close to potentially
here being at full health.

Speaker 4 (11:22):
Right.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
The Kings have had injuries now for a long time.

Speaker 4 (11:23):
Yeah, but boy oh boy, I don't'll get into it.

Speaker 5 (11:25):
Watching Kean Allis on Defense last night, they might feel
pretty pretty good.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
Picking the pocket of Kurry like that right out of
the gates pretty much. So we'll get into the Warriors
finito for them beyond this year, by the way, and
it might be a sign when voters are confused that's
next year on vicent could have you on board Follow

(11:58):
the Money Mitch Moss along with Johnathan von Tobel, who
was in for the vacationing Paulie Howard. We're live in
downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and Casino. Our
good friend Paul Charchi and joins the program now. He
is a Fantasy Football Hall of Famer. He's with kay
Fan Radio in Minneapolis. In Guillotine Leagues dot com, he
joins us here on the progressive guest line, good morning, pal,

(12:20):
how you been.

Speaker 6 (12:21):
I've been great, and it's it's been too long. I
don't like it when we don't talk for three months.
You don't write, you know. I just I think, no postcards, nothing.
I feel like you've iced me out of your life.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
Hold on, you're not getting my letters that I send
snail mail on a week have your wrong address.

Speaker 6 (12:37):
Damn it doka handwritten, yeah, scratch nothing.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
Okay, okay, so this is good. We have to pay
this off because I've been teasing throughout the entire show
that I sent you a text last night and I asked,
do I need to bet the Vikings to draft JJ
McCarthy with their first overall pick. You sent me back
a one word answer, and as I've said all show,
it felt like it was emphatic on your end. Tell

(13:02):
the audience what you told me, and why no.

Speaker 7 (13:06):
And here's why.

Speaker 6 (13:07):
I don't believe there's it's going to be really really
hard for the Vikings to end up with JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 7 (13:12):
I believe. So here's why, and a couple of things.

Speaker 6 (13:16):
At first, I think understand almost every mock draft has
the Vikings moving up. Yes, that's so lazy on the
part of the mock drafter. I mean, all you're doing
is going, okay, I gotta find a way to get
a quarterback needy.

Speaker 7 (13:28):
Team into a position to take a quarterback.

Speaker 6 (13:30):
And well, yeah, the you know, our general manager is desperate,
but this is not like you're five without a quarterback.

Speaker 7 (13:38):
The problem is a couple of things.

Speaker 6 (13:40):
One, it's really expensive to move up if you're the Vikings.
The top three picks aren't going anywhere. Those guys need
Those are teams that need quarterbacks. There's more than there's
three good ones, and they're they're not going anywhere. So
that only really leaves the Vikings into a position where
they'd have to try to move into probably pick four,
pick five, to try to get a quarterback JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 7 (14:01):
But okay, but that's not easy either. Giants might want
that pick.

Speaker 6 (14:06):
Titans might want to go there, Broncos might want to
go there, Raiders might want to go there. Even the
Jets who are close by, they may want to go
there too. So I think there's I think it's gonna
be much harder for the Vikings to get up into
position to take JJ McCarthy if they like him at all,
which we don't even know that either.

Speaker 7 (14:24):
Then most people seem to think it's going to be.

Speaker 6 (14:27):
So that's not the angle I would use to bet
the Vikings in this draft.

Speaker 1 (14:33):
Okay, So then lay out how you think it's going
to go. If they don't trade up, what position are
they going to go with at number eleven?

Speaker 6 (14:42):
I don't believe that's going to be an offensive position.
I do believe the Vikings will pick out of their
natural position eleven or.

Speaker 7 (14:47):
Maybe even move down.

Speaker 6 (14:49):
So know this, after the Vikings will have the two
first round picks, they don't pick again for eighty five picks,
and so there's a lot of reason to move down
out They already moved up in this draft, but they
just may have just liked that deal. There's a chance
they could move back, including at eleven. But if they
hold it, eleven almost certainly going to address defense. This
team basically does not have a starting defensive end or

(15:12):
cornerback on roster right now, so they are really desperate
for those spots. Now, based on who's going to be available,
they might get their pick at eleven, their pick up
defensive ends. I mean, there's a chance Dallas Turner hasn't gone.

Speaker 4 (15:25):
At that point.

Speaker 6 (15:26):
And if it's not Dallas Dallas Turner, perhaps it's Jared
Verser Layatu Latu, which would be fun for all of
us that just want to save Leyatu Latu's name for
for years to come, which wuld be great. So that's
how I believe this is most The probability is that
it will it will fall that way from Minnesota at
eleven nook.

Speaker 1 (15:45):
This is wild, Okay, So what if McCarthy's on the
board at number eleven, Well, then they'd go McCarthy.

Speaker 6 (15:50):
Okay, Okay, Yeah, So I mean to be clear, if
McCarthy's there, and I'm assuming that that they like him
enough to take him in that spot, which I don't
know that to be the case. But what I don't
think they're gonna do is make the big move that
everybody projects them to to move into range to go
get them at four or five, which is going to
cost them first rounder, first round or first round or

(16:11):
second rounder maybe more. That's I think that's just I
think that's going to be too expensive to make that move.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
So you're calling this like a likely scenario here where
the Vikings stay put or trade back and if they
go number eleven it's gonna be defense. Then they're currently
holding pick number twenty three, right do they go quarterback
at that point?

Speaker 7 (16:30):
Now it gets really interesting.

Speaker 6 (16:32):
Michael Pennix, I believe will be there at pick twenty three,
and that's why I'm interested in Pennis to draft to
end up with the Vikings. You can get that at
plus four seventy.

Speaker 7 (16:43):
Those are nice.

Speaker 6 (16:44):
Odds for a team that is going to have two
cracks at Michael Pennox eleven and twenty three, or maybe
they could move back on eleven as well, so they
could dump that thing back to eighteen whatever.

Speaker 7 (16:55):
So they'll have two cracks at Pennix. And that's where
I think it gets a lot more.

Speaker 6 (17:00):
They don't have to pay anything to make that move,
and you can convince yourself.

Speaker 7 (17:03):
That Pennix is worth a first round pick.

Speaker 6 (17:05):
I don't like him as a first round pick, but
you can convince others do You can convince yourself that
Pennis is worth.

Speaker 7 (17:12):
A move there.

Speaker 6 (17:13):
Vikings have a very nice spot to end up with
a quarterback in terms of you know who's around you,
justin Jefferson, presumably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hockinson will come back
off the knee injury, bookend.

Speaker 7 (17:24):
Tackles in place.

Speaker 6 (17:26):
I mean, it's a nice spot to drop a rookie
quarterback into if you need to. So I like Pennix
to end up as a Viking much more. I like
McCarthy and you get the two cracks at him and
you get plus four seventy.

Speaker 5 (17:37):
Well, so you talk about moving back could it be
a situation where they move back from twenty three, like
for example, when you look at the order overall, and
this is very specific, but you know in the second
round the Caroline Panthers, I think of the first pick
of the second round. Could you do something like that
where you move yourself back at the front of the
second round and go get Penix or do you think
that would be twenty three is going to be the pick.

Speaker 6 (17:56):
No.

Speaker 7 (17:57):
I absolutely could move back from twenty three and still
get him.

Speaker 6 (17:59):
And you know maybe that maybe they try to keep
him in the in the first round so you get
that fifty.

Speaker 7 (18:04):
Year option whatever. I you know, maybe it's something like that.

Speaker 6 (18:07):
But yes, moving back from twenty three and still getting
Penix Is is in play here as well.

Speaker 7 (18:12):
So that's another pathway to get Penis on this team.
Plus four seventy.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
I love this conversation our guest Paul Charchi and Kfan
Radio in Minneapolis, Fantasy Football Hall of famerge tea Leagues
dot Com Here in the progressive guest line, So you
said that you don't like Pennix. There some may like him,
the Vikings like him enough, you know that.

Speaker 7 (18:29):
At all, don't know you know, I really I don't.

Speaker 6 (18:32):
I don't have any intel that gives me names and
evaluations of players, so I can't say that. So you know,
we're there's some conjecture here, but quarterback needy teams, you know,
the temptation to reach is pretty high. So you know
we've seen it time and time again. You know, Kenny
Pickett will loves last year Kenny Pickett prior to that

(18:53):
Desmond Ritter.

Speaker 4 (18:53):
You know.

Speaker 6 (18:54):
So I just I still feel like there's a viable
pathway at plus four seventy.

Speaker 7 (18:58):
I like those on charge.

Speaker 1 (18:59):
What do you make of the Vikings win total next year,
which is around six and a half.

Speaker 6 (19:04):
I'm sitting I like the under on that we at
this time. Well, last August we talked about the win
total for the Vikings and I urged under and and
we hit that. But you know, we also needed cousins
to go. But this team is the important thing to
know about the Vikings. One, you know, they're gonna have
either Sam Darnold at a quarterback or they're gonna have
some rookie that's going to be, you know, playing for
the first time in his life. But also because the

(19:25):
Vikings have missed so badly on their last two drafts.
This is a team that has does not have an
injection of young talent on it, and the divisions become
so much harder.

Speaker 7 (19:36):
The Vikings look like a one win team in its division, So.

Speaker 6 (19:40):
I'd give it based on the odds right now, which
I believe is sitting at a round minus one ten
to go under six and a half wins.

Speaker 7 (19:49):
I'd take the under right now.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
All right, how about a team in their division, in fact,
they won it last year and almost went to the
super Bowl. At Detroy Lions. You have a couple of
what I think are really good angles here their first
overall pick. What do you got?

Speaker 6 (20:02):
I'm gonna give you two plays, and I would I'd
put them back together, back and back. The Lions are
really complete roster except in their secondary, where they got
just drilled last year.

Speaker 7 (20:13):
We're gonna look at two things.

Speaker 6 (20:14):
One is cornerback, which only played pays plus plus one
forty as the first player drafted from the Lions. But
there's also plus four thousand at safety, another position of
need for them. Let's talk it through for a second.
For all the things that Detroit did so well to
get you right to the door, of the Super Bowl.
They ranked thirtieth in pass defense by Pro Football Focus

(20:37):
in division they got to face Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison,
DJ Moore likely Roma was a dunsa if you think
he's gonna go to the Bears, which I do, and
the Packers have got the promising young receivers. I mean,
they just have to get better in pass defense. Last
year they hit on Brian Branch and so you might
be thinking, like Detroit really gonna go back to the
well again, But they were so bad at in their

(20:58):
secondary last year. They punted the entire position in the
off season except Branch. They brought in a couple of
veterans of Meek Robertson, Carlton Davis unclear if they're really
that great, and where Detroit is drafting, you know, twenty
ninth pick. It's right when Cooper dejene from Iowa could
hit kool Aid, McKinstry could hit Enus Rakestraw could hit

(21:19):
those are your plus one forties at cornerback. If you
like safety, they've got to replace Kirby Joseph who last
year finished is the ninety third ranked safety by Pro
Football Focus. So they could This is when the safety
position starts. A kick in is right around pick twenty
nine Tyler Neuban, Jaden Hicks, Javon Bullard.

Speaker 7 (21:37):
Those guys could go there.

Speaker 6 (21:38):
So I like the combo platter of cornerback at plus
one forty and that plus four thousand for a safety
pick for the Lions as their first player drafted.

Speaker 7 (21:48):
Really tempting.

Speaker 1 (21:49):
I'm on it. This conversation flew by my guy. I
could talk to you for don already. It's gone, We're
done well. The best part is you're saying a lot
of stuff that people aren't, which is I love, Yes
you also liked you want to hang her out for
a couple more minutes or no, yes you do, okay,
so hang tight. Charge are gonna come back with us
because he has another bomb that he likes in the
top ten. We're talking around thirty five to one, and

(22:12):
he thinks this guy is gonna go in the top
five at plus money as well. You're exactly right, JBT.
This is why I think it's refreshing. Everybody else has
the vikings treading up. Chargers like hold on not going
to be that easy. So find out what else Charge
likes coming up here and follow the money. It's VSA
V Sports Betting Network.

Speaker 5 (22:46):
The check out the current bettings. Let's say it up
on the website of Vson dot com, folks. It is
free courtesy of DraftKings. You can check it out now
if you'd like to use it as part of the
handicapping process. It is open to the public, no pro
subscription required. Vson dot com slash splits.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
NFL Draft props here as Dylan Sullivan joins the program.
He's a risk manager here at Circa Sports, in charge
of all of the NFL draft props. Good morning, Dylan,
good to see you today. How are you.

Speaker 2 (23:11):
I'm good.

Speaker 1 (23:11):
How are you doing? Really well? That's got to be
a pretty cool feeling that everybody here at the book
and you've been doing this now with the NFL for
a while, but you're the man in charge here at
the props. Pretty cool responsibility to.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
Have, Yes, sir, Yeah, it's been great so far. Actions flying.
You know, we got fifty one players over under a
few team props. So yeah, everything's been great so far.

Speaker 1 (23:32):
What was the philosophy here at Circa this year posting them?
Because it's changed, I think right over the years of
when when they were going to get posted, who you
were going to select to put up on the board,
how much you were going to take as a limit,
and you guys, I think just came to the conclusion
that Okay, we're going to post a bunch. You were
in charge of picking the players, and then we'll put
a five hundred dollars limit on all the bets.

Speaker 2 (23:53):
Yeah, so a few years ago, we've kind of done
this different every year, kind of testing new things out.
So a few years ago we did like one hundred
player over under his dime limits. So that didn't go
so great for us, So we scaled back over the
past couple of years, and then this year we decided
to try to offer a little bit more, but we're
gonna do nickel limits try to protect ourselves. And then

(24:13):
we kind of decided to do at least fifty That
was just the general guidelines. So I kind of just
went up the list kind of like rankings by position.
I wanted to get a little mix of every type
of position, so quarterback, running back, receiver, corner, edge, so on.
And that's just kind of the amount of guys I
ended up with. If you guys ended up getting cut
at the last second because the ranges were all over

(24:35):
the place, but yeah, that's pretty much how we decided
the list.

Speaker 5 (24:39):
So when you guys have these up, how reactionary are
you to any single bet? And it is the assumption
just if it's a limit bet, there's based on information
because we saw last year, right, everybody freaked out about
the Will Leveis Reddit post. It kind of changed everything.
So how do you guys react when it comes to
information on what you're getting on some of these bets
when they're up?

Speaker 2 (24:55):
Yeah, everything super reactionary. Like if I'm taking a full
limit bet on something, I'm just moving it to the
point that I'm not earning to it. If these guys
are in the first round, then I might move it,
you know, forty cents and one position kind of depends.
Like the thing about the draft is every position is
different based on like team needs and where teams are slotted.

(25:17):
So if a guy's in the first round and say
twenty five and a half, you might move him to
twenty and a half, you might just move the juice.
If a guy's at one hundred and a half, then
you might move him fifteen spots. So it's different for
every player. But yeah, everything super reactionary. We're just moving
off money. For the most part.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
I think there are from when I was tracking it,
and I made a couple of bets the other day
too when you guys first opened up. But when I
was on the app looking at the movement going on,
two guys came to mind. One was Keon Coleman wide receiver,
Florida State. So I think he opened up. Was it
forty and a half?

Speaker 8 (25:52):
I want to say he was forty eight and a half. Okay,
he might in forty and a half, you know what,
It might have been forty and a half. And then
he moved down right away, right and then he moved back.
So when you moved him like eight spots, was that
from one bet limit bet or was that from multiple
limit bets?

Speaker 2 (26:04):
Yeah, that was from one bet, So from one bet,
so one bet could move him a huge percentage of
his total number.

Speaker 1 (26:09):
Another guy and it was more of a drastic move
was Wisconsin money back Brelan Allen. I think he moved
thirty five spots maybe in that range. So how many
bets did you take on him before you go, We're
this was way too low.

Speaker 2 (26:23):
I want to say that was off two bets maybe three,
So yeah, that was a huge jump as well.

Speaker 1 (26:28):
And then when those bets come in, is it one
one right after another.

Speaker 2 (26:31):
Yeah, pretty much like the certain guys that are betting
these right when they open, they're just hammering away their opinions.
So if I move it and it's not enough, they'll
just rebt it within a minute or two they will.

Speaker 5 (26:43):
Okay, Well, that's kind of the fascinating part about like
I think player props like that, right when you're on the
hundreds or in the seventies, there's no information right, there's
that information based that's just like I think this guy's
gonna go away before that. So it like you guys
have to react to that because of course you're gonna
build that money up on there. But at the same time,
from your end, I don't I would assume you're not
too nervous because you don't know what's going to happen
by pick one hundred at this point right now.

Speaker 2 (27:04):
Right, Yeah, it's kind of a crapshoot like those ones.
That's like you said, it's not an information based it's
kind of just I'm way off of what that guy
thinks it is. So he's going to bet it based
on his opinion, and we kind of just have to
find a sweet spot.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
So I'll ask you this. Then there's a prop up
on JJ McCarthy, and again you have about fifty players
up on the board. That's a number that you guys
wanted to get to, and you have I think you
originally posted about eighty six props overall in that neighborhood. Anyway,
McCarthy's five and a half. There's been a lot of
steam on him going under in the last month or so.
What if that flips in the next week and these

(27:42):
props in Nevada, by the way, have to be off
the board on Wednesday night, a full night before the
actual draft takes place. What if that turns the other
way and the narrative starts to go nobody's going to
trade up for him, or the interest is just not
there like we thought it was since like February. Would
you consider moving because that that price point there at
five and a half over plus one forty five, you

(28:05):
can't really move his position that much, right, You would
just have to tinker with the juwe I guessing.

Speaker 2 (28:09):
Yeah, especially in those top ten spots, you really don't
want to move the numbers around too much, because I mean,
one trade can kind of screw things up a little bit.
But he's if he's gonna go four or five, six,
like that's kind of his range, unless like he slides
a little bit, maybe he goes back end of the
top ten. But you really don't want to be moving
those numbers too much.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
It's only gonna be the juice ile like that. Has
has that been a popular prop by the way JJ
McCarthy's reposition, it has.

Speaker 2 (28:35):
Been a popular prop. There's a lot of two way
opinion there because a lot of the man drafts have
teams trading up for him. But obviously I don't think
the Giants or the Cardinals are like the top two
teams that are looking at him. I guess, so it's
kind of trade dependent, and like you said, maybe the
number will move because if it comes out that, you know,
those two teams are keyed in on certain other guys,

(28:55):
then maybe he ends up going six or so and
we kind of have to move the number.

Speaker 5 (28:59):
So byens quarterbacks in the first round was also pretty
fascinating watching it from your perspective. I think minus two
twenty five was the opener on the over if I
remember for you guys somewhere in that range that sounds right, yeah,
and then it got beat down. So where'd you guys
eventually end up? Because I thought there was some action
on both ends right once we got to a point,
I got bet back up.

Speaker 2 (29:17):
Yeah, that's been the most popular prop of this draft
by far. So we've moved around. When we were at
over minus two twenty five, went all the way down
to over minus one twenty five I think, and right
now I believe we're sitting at minus one eighty five
on the over. So it's it's been all over the place.
That's been the best prop by far.

Speaker 1 (29:33):
That was number one. What's the second most popular prop?

Speaker 2 (29:40):
Probably someone odd like Brian Thomas Junior?

Speaker 1 (29:42):
Is that right?

Speaker 4 (29:43):
Really?

Speaker 2 (29:43):
Yeah, he's been a good one. I think that seventeen
spot's been like real key for him. So there's been
a lot of people betting right around that range. And
another one that's kind of odd is Spencer Ratler. He's
like at eighty eight or ninety in that range. We've
gotten a lot of guys betting both ways on him.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
You do have you moved his position much?

Speaker 2 (30:01):
Oh? Yeah, it's been all over the place, as it. Yeah,
anywhere between like seventy seven and ninety two I think,
really really.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
Okay, how popular has Michael Pennox been that prop thirty
two and a half? Just tinkering with the juice a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (30:13):
Yeah, I'm trying not to move that number because he's
really the key guy right now that's gonna affect that
quarterbacks over under four and a half. So he's sitting
there at thirty two and a half, like you said,
trying not to move the number, just the juice. But yeah,
he's been another popular one. I think yesterday was a
lot of understem on him, which kind of correlates with

(30:33):
the four and a half for the quarterbacks. But yeah, Penix,
he's that wild card right now.

Speaker 1 (30:38):
Another one, and I think better's gravitated to this one
right away? Was bo Nix right because you opened up
thirty two and a half juice to the over on
that and you moved him I think immediately to thirty
four and a half.

Speaker 2 (30:51):
Yeah, he's uh, there's not a lot of interest on
him going in the first round. You know, other shops
in town have a version of twenty six and a half,
but we got instant os and it seems like Panics
has kind of passed him up as the guy that
has a better chance going in the first round.

Speaker 1 (31:05):
So when you're doing this and coming up with all
these numbers and the players that you're going to post
on the board, how many mocks do you look at?
How many big boards do you look at? Which guys
do you trust? Because a lot of them there are
If you go to mock draft database on just type
that into Google. This guy tracks every single mock that pops.
There's one hundred of them right from maybe more than that,

(31:26):
from people who do it, you know, over and over
and over again. Nix has like consistently been going twelve
overall to the Broncos, and you just say, that's not
going to happen, right, Is that basically your theory on that.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
Yeah, pretty much. I mean I'm kind of looking at
the market and respecting bets, but other than the Broncos
at twelve, which seems like a reach at this point,
doesn't seem like there's any other team that's really looking
for him in the first round. But to answer your question,
it's kind of a learning experience looking at a bunch
of different mock drafts. I'm really looking to see who
the betters respect the most, because I don't have like

(31:58):
a great history this, so I'm kind of looking all around.
And then every day someone releases a new mock draft
and certain guys will bet off of it. So I
kind of just make a mental note, all right, they
respect this guy, but I couldn't tell you the number
one guy off the top of my head.

Speaker 1 (32:14):
Yeah, I'm guessing that when what Daniel Jeremiah does a
new mock YEP and people look at the big board,
that's a big deal. And also when Dan Brugler puts
out something like The Beast and the Athletic the other day,
that's how betters are probably going to react to stuff, right,
would be my guess how.

Speaker 5 (32:29):
Much you pay attention to just for like shows like this,
Because I made the joke Schefter the other day went
on a podcast and told them, yeah, by your Jayden
and Daniels Jerseys. Now it was an official report that
he comes on yesterday. He goes, well, I don't know
if that's going to happen, So, like, how much is
that is respond to reacting to information or is it
just for you? It's all about what money's coming in.
You're going to only adjust off of that.

Speaker 2 (32:48):
A little bit of both. I definitely want to be
aware of people on shows giving stuff out so I
know if that's where the money ends up coming from.
But I'm not always just moving straight off of what
they say on TV.

Speaker 1 (33:00):
Yeah, probably not a good idea, Yeah right, A lot
of hot takes there, Yeah, for sure. Let's follow the
money here on VS and D Sports Betty Network.

Speaker 5 (33:08):
Killing Jayden Daniels is the favorite to go one if
that was a kid.

Speaker 1 (33:11):
Yale and Sullivan our guest risk management team here at
CIRCA in charge of all the NFL draft props. I
want to ask him how the props were received in
Chicago compared to Las Vegas, and we'll get into Finally,
Marvin Harrison took some money. Find out which way coming up.

Speaker 6 (33:23):
Next to.

Speaker 5 (33:39):
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(33:59):
The crown is yours.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
All right, we continue here talking NFL draft props. Dylan Sullivan,
our guests, part of the risk management team here at CIRCA,
in charge of all of the draft props. So when
you posted the eighty plus props you have on the
board now at CIRCA, not only here in Nevada, but
in every other state that you're in, is Kentucky? Can
you put props up in Kentucky?

Speaker 2 (34:20):
Kentucky's the only state we're not allowed to be not
allowed to.

Speaker 1 (34:22):
Okay, Well, when you put them up two days ago,
how was the action in the first thirty minutes to
an hour?

Speaker 2 (34:30):
First thirty minutes, we just NonStop. I couldn't even keep
up with them. I had a guy kind of over
my shoulder, kind of putting stuff out. Hey you miss
this one, you missed that one. So yeah, it's we
got double popped on a few of them. But yeah,
after the first thirty minutes, things kind of settle down,
and then you know, every hour or so, guys will
keep making their waves. But first thirty minutes, it was
impossible to.

Speaker 4 (34:50):
Keep up with.

Speaker 5 (34:51):
I wouldn't be able to do it be too nerve
wracking really quickly. So we have the rule out here,
as Mitch mentioned, twenty four hours before the draft. Will
you adhere to that in all the other markets or
how you guys gonna handle that in terms of keeping
them up prior to the draft twenty four hours.

Speaker 2 (35:03):
I believe in Nevada and Iowa we have to pull
them twenty four hours. We're waiting on word in the
other states, so that's kind of to be determined.

Speaker 1 (35:11):
How were they received in the Chicago area compared out
here in Las Vegas.

Speaker 4 (35:15):
Oh, it was great.

Speaker 2 (35:16):
I would say Chicago's probably been our number two state
or Illinois been our number two state. As far as
draft action.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
Yeah, you have some really cool specific index props up
for the Bears, like, for example, the position of the
Bears second pick in the first round. Yeah, that's sorry, no, no,
go ahead.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
Yeah, that's been kind of an intriguing one. It hasn't
moved around a whole lot. I think we've taken some
action on edge d line being their second pick, but yeah,
it's kind of it's kind of a good one because
you know, they're going to probably take quarterback Caleb Williams
number one, and then that number two pick. There's like
two or three different positions that are kind of all
over the place. Rumors of Roman Wilson, Dallas Turners, some

(35:56):
sort of edge so Romano Dudentes, I should say, But yeah,
that one has gotten some intrigue for sure.

Speaker 1 (36:04):
Well JBT, there is a world here because wide receiver
I think was minus one seventy when I checked to
be the Bear second pick. This, this possibility does exist
where Harrison, Neighbors and Odune's are all gone right by
number nine, right right. I've seen some people this. I
don't think this is going to happen. I've seen some

(36:25):
people mock brock Bauers nine to the Bears.

Speaker 4 (36:29):
Yeah, no, I wouldn't buy that.

Speaker 5 (36:30):
I think you'd rather go edge right as opposed to
if you're not gonna get one of those wide receivers.

Speaker 4 (36:34):
It makes sense.

Speaker 5 (36:35):
Also, trading back is a big deal, So you can
do that if the three guys are gone, and then
maybe still get a wide receiver. But it's one of
the later guys if you're trading back there. So I'll
ask you this. You guys obviously you put these up recently.
How much of the process was looking at the books
that had been up and letting them take shape in
terms of the market, and then using that, not of
course one to one, but shaping your own numbers then afterswords.

Speaker 2 (36:58):
Yeah, that's probably the number one thing we're looking at, honestly,
because if I make a guy fifty and other books
have thirty two and a half, I can't hang fifty. Basically,
I want to hang the closest number to what they have,
and if I want to play offense, then I'll force
a bet on the opposite side. But yeah, I still
want to earn as much as possible and be as
close as them as I can.

Speaker 1 (37:18):
Yeah, so you're looking at pretty much every single book
worldwide that you can find to extract as much information
and then post it up here. At CIRCA. You finally
saw some money come in on Marvin Harrison. His draft
position here is four and a half. It was a
minus four dollars, but you finally took some money. I
think it was what yesterday I'm people thinking that he
actually might go over four and a half.

Speaker 2 (37:38):
Yeah. I think the thought there is that the McCarthy
trade gets up to four possibly or the Cardinals trade
out and you never know what's going to happen after that.
But yeah, we did take some under or some over
money there at the plus money, so I guess we'll
see what happens with him.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
I brought up Rock Bauers. Your position here is eleven
and a half. I've seen twelve and a half on
him as well. It's juice. Now this has been going
back a little bit back and forth, so you're getting
good two way money and Bowers I'm guessing.

Speaker 2 (38:06):
Yeah, he's been a popular one for sure. I think
there's some thought that the Jets might take him at ten,
and then he's also a guy that the teams might
be trading up for as well.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
If you had to bet that prop, what would you
do with Brock Bowers?

Speaker 2 (38:21):
I would probably bet the under based on everything that
I've seen you, I think, so yeah, But you know, I
haven't bet at myself so far, So.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
Okay, some other popular bets that I've seen. It appears
as if Dallas Turner the juice has been moving back
and forth quite a bit on his position at nine
and a half. I thought the whole time, right, I mean,
it seems like Atlanta is going to be the spot
at number eight, but he's juiced to the over nine
and a half.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
Yeah, I think there's some thought that Atlanta might take
a different edge there. So it seems like over is
the wise guy's side right now. But like you said,
there's been a little bit of two ways, so there
is some support on that under Well.

Speaker 5 (38:58):
What about you guys do have a head had as well?
Drake made and Jayden and Daniels? Where'd you guys open
and what you do? You Have you seen anything here
because the assumption is that Jayden Daniels will be too
but I think there's still an opening for a guy
like me to go ahead of them, still go to I.

Speaker 2 (39:12):
Think we opened Jayden Daniels minus two fifty, and I
think our first bet was on Daniels and we've taken
some may money since then.

Speaker 1 (39:20):
This one opened up pretty short, and we had a
guest done earlier today, Paul Charcion, who was making a
case on the opposite side. I bet it based on
what he was saying. But do you recall where you
opened up Vikings first pick to be an offensive player.

Speaker 2 (39:35):
I want to say it was minus two hundred, something
like that, and now we're up to minus eight hundreds.

Speaker 1 (39:40):
That ballooned up to minus eight hundred. I took a
little plus five seventy five. Earlier this morning. He was
making the case that people are just assuming the Vikings
are going to be the team to trade up and
take jj McCarthy, and he laid out, this is an
hour or so ago on our show, the reasons why
he doesn't think that's go to happen. And if that

(40:01):
does not happen, we said, if McCarthy falls to number eleven,
the Vikings will take him. But assuming that he's gone,
he thinks they're gonna go edge.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
Yeah. I think that's kind of what I thought when
I opened it. But we took we took you know,
five or six, yes, bets on the offense, So I
just kind of listened to the money. But I'm glad
to hear you say that, because I would really like
you to win that bet.

Speaker 1 (40:24):
Is that like number the number one bet that you
were pounded on more than anything else?

Speaker 2 (40:28):
Yeah, as far as the team stuff, that was the
biggest run away by mile.

Speaker 4 (40:30):
Wow.

Speaker 5 (40:31):
So what about a guy like Joe Old Because I
think this is pretty fascinating. He seems really solidly in
as the first offensive lineman taken. But you have guys
like Zerline who put out there, like I think there
actually might be a surprise at offensive line number one.
Now we thought maybe that means he goes earlier, but
that also could mean he's not the first offensive lineman.
You guys have his drapt position seven and a half
heavily shaded under did you see anything airs you open
that up adequately enough that you didn't see anything on it?

Speaker 4 (40:53):
Or what did you see early?

Speaker 2 (40:54):
We've taken some nibbles there, but nothing that's got it
off seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
Yeah, okay, all right, very good. A lot of fun
though with this whole process.

Speaker 2 (41:02):
Yeah, it's been great. Like you say, NonStop action keeping
me busy. So it's been fun.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
So when you were in charge again of coming up
with the players that you wanted a list, are you
going back and looking at big boards and the positional
rankings and saying, okay, I can probably pick and choose
from like the top six or seven guys at wide
receiver and the just post a number on them. And
you wanted to do that with pretty much every position
that you could.

Speaker 2 (41:23):
Yeah, to some degree, I think we only have one safety.
Offensive players, I guess they're just more interesting in general,
so more quarterbacks, more receivers. But I wanted a little
bit of every position, and like I just went off
a couple of big boards and picked the first three
to ten guys in freeze position.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
Have you noticed that the draft is becoming more popular
every single year for people to bet on, because we
were talking about this off the air earlier today. If
betting did not exist for the draft, I'm sure we'd
still talk about it, but it wouldn't be nowhere near
as close. You know, it's a gambling network here in
other spots as well, we wouldn't talk about it as

(41:58):
much as we do now. But it's fascinating because of
all these propets that are on the board.

Speaker 2 (42:01):
Yeah, for sure, like NFL Draft of all drafts, I think,
besides MLB, impacts the upcoming season the least, so from
a betting standpoint. Without betting on the actual draft itself,
it wouldn't be that great for our space. But yeah,
betting on it. It's kind of gone in and out.
I think two years ago everyone got a little scared
and kind of held back, offered a lot less and

(42:24):
now it's kind of gaining some more traction, gaining more popularity.

Speaker 5 (42:27):
Has the I'll call on Shenanigans. Has the Shenanigans with
the odds for the first overall picks the last few
years and different drafts been a big reason why we
saw the Pala Bank Caro stuff we saw some others.
I think was that the National Hockey League draft last
year we saw some movement too, Yeah, in a weird
way for the top picks. Is that in the conversation
at all, when you're talking about the trepidation of putting
these things up.

Speaker 2 (42:44):
Yeah, it's definitely not encouraging books to offer more.

Speaker 4 (42:47):
Yeah, that's sure.

Speaker 2 (42:48):
Like even the Will Evis thing last year. Yep, he's
what twenty to one to go second overall and someone
gives him out on TV, so now he used to
pick him and then he goes in the second round.
It's just it's a crap shoot.

Speaker 1 (42:58):
Total madness.

Speaker 5 (42:59):
Really.

Speaker 4 (42:59):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (42:59):
Yeah, And plus, I mean it is strictly based on
information betting this stuff. Right, So books generally do not
do very well with the NFL draft. A reason why
that it's been slow to put up stuff over the
previous years and why books have admitted that we don't
want to actually book it, you know.

Speaker 2 (43:15):
Right, it's a kind of concession to the players. We're
not really expecting to win a lot of money on this.
Our goal is almost really to break even and offer
a good menu, right.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
And based on how you guys operated here at Circa,
my guess is you're probably going to do this every
single year, even though it's not. It's tough to win
for you, guys.

Speaker 2 (43:31):
Yeah, I would think so, like it could change next year.
We might offer more or less. You never know. I
guess we'll just see how this one goes.

Speaker 1 (43:38):
Yeah, yeah, very good. Dylan Sullivan has been our guest here.
He is a risk manager here at Circus Sports, in
charge of all the NFL draft stuff in NFL, a
lot of it in general. Anyway, thanks so much for
coming in today. We really appreciate that, all right.

Speaker 2 (43:51):
Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 4 (43:51):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (43:52):
Yeah, if you miss any of the show, you can
go back and search Follow the Money wherever you get
your podcasts. Stay tuned. We have other shows coming up
all day long and then network including Gil Alexander with
a numbers game that's next. You can listen at vsin
dot com. Good luck, betting tonight.

Speaker 4 (44:17):
The eighty two game preseason is in the books, and
it is