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April 19, 2024 44 mins

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 2 (00:04):
Excuse me, it's an absolutely fantastic chock full of information.
Today's newsletter. Matt Humans has his mock draft. Fills you
in as to why he's looking at certain prompts in
the NFL draft Dan.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Of course, it's some insight on the NBA play in.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
All that and more every day in your inbox six
am Eastern Vson dot Com Slast newsletter.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Sign up for free.

Speaker 3 (00:21):
Ooh, I gotta talk to Matt Humans. Mm, he's going
against us. Yeah, oh, he's done team over four and
a half quarterbacks.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Also JJ McCarthy to the Vikings inside of the top five. Yeah,
Matt's Matt disappointed me.

Speaker 4 (00:35):
Come on, Matt, bring it home baby, all right?

Speaker 3 (00:37):
A lot to get to regarding the NFL Draft, the
move the movement at the number two overall pick has
something to watch last night and we were watching it
in live time on VS in primetime just an evening
and go to help us put our finger on the pulse,
not only the number two pick, but also what else
we could expect six days from now. In the first round,
we bring in Eric Eager, a good friend from Sumer Sports.

(01:00):
Follow him on Twitter at Eric Eager underscore, let's get
to the number two pick, because that was all the
talk last night. As high as minus three point fifty
was Jaden Daniels at some shops to be the number
two pick or to go ahead of Drake May, depending
on how you look how it was worded, Eric, And
now we've moved it back to around minus one fifty

(01:21):
Daniels plus one twenty Drake May. What did you make
of the movement yesterday after Adam Peters came out and said,
you know what, still haven't made our decision.

Speaker 5 (01:33):
Yeah, I think that you know, we're in a very
similar spot that we were in a couple three years ago,
right where Adam Peters, an executive with the forty nine ers,
was part of the decision to draft Trey Lance instead
of Mac Jones.

Speaker 6 (01:47):
And we all thought mac Jones.

Speaker 5 (01:48):
Until the Wednesday night, Thursday morning of draft of draft week,
and there there was really nothing. There's no definitive information,
and that made us think that it was that it
was Daniels. I mean, even chefter going on that podcast
saying he thought other teams, well, other teams don't know
what the Niners are or sorry, what the commanders are

(02:10):
doing and it was funny and I think it's it's
a good example of a why uh, these these sportsbooks
wait until now in many cases for example, where you
guys are at CERCA to post to post lines because uh,
these markets are are very are very wild, and they
move and you can get middles and things like that.

(02:31):
But also, you know, a cautionary tail for for believing
you know, some of the insiders who frankly have not
had a great track record over the past few years
in terms of being able to move markets, both in
the NBA and in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (02:46):
Eric not to this extent, right, because we've seen this
move quite a bit, but we also saw this week
some resistance to JJ McCarthy inside of the top five
we saw and we saw the over move a little
bit in that direction. Are we still solidly believing that
this is the case, because now that we get a
little bit more information, Houston was actually the one that
reached out to Minnesota. Maybe the Vikings are fine standing

(03:06):
there at eleven and picking there. Do you think that
there's maybe more movement in that regard that JJ McCarthy
is not going to be a top five selection.

Speaker 5 (03:14):
Yeah, and you had the press conference where Vikings general
manager Quasi Dopplemensa basically said like, look, there's kind of
two types of quarterbacks.

Speaker 6 (03:21):
There's the guy that you.

Speaker 5 (03:23):
Move up for and you don't need as much support,
and then there's the guy that you need the support, right,
And I think that he was referring to, you know,
the Daniels, the Mays, the Williams. Is where you can
move up for those players because they need less help.
And maybe a McCarthy is the guy you wait until
eleven for because you can't necessarily give away the future

(03:46):
to make sure that he's on your roster. So I
tend to agree with this idea that McCarthy might fall.
I think six to New York is a possibility. I
don't see a team trading into the top five to
take him, and I could see him having a mac
Jones type of fall as well.

Speaker 3 (04:04):
Talking to Eric Eager from sumer Sports, he's got his
mock draft up there pinned to his Twitter profile at
Eric Eager underscore. You work with Thomas de Metrov, longtime
Atlanta Falcons general manager, so you have a unique perspective
on all things NFL drafts, and I want to I'm
curious what Thomas de metrof and your perspective on Michael

(04:25):
Pennix has been, because right now, if you look at
the betting market, he's a slight favor to go in
the first round over under thirty two and a half.
But there was I think it was Albert Breer when
on Rich Eisen Show, Eric and said, scouts and guys
in the front office have their questions about Michael Pennicks.

Speaker 4 (04:44):
Coaches love him.

Speaker 3 (04:46):
So where are we going to meet Ultimately, what's your
belief of Michael Penix and what does your boss, Thomas
de metrov think of Michael Pennix as a prospect.

Speaker 5 (04:56):
Yeah, it's one where I think five years ago before
the new CVA, A team would have probably traded back
in around one, snatched the fifth year option. But the
fifth year option now is expensive, as we saw at
Jordan Love before he started his second game with the
Packers had to kind of maneuver around a twenty million
dollar decision with Green Bay. So that so that would

(05:17):
be that would be an issue.

Speaker 6 (05:20):
I think that.

Speaker 5 (05:22):
Yeah, I think right around thirty two is a yeah,
coin flipp as to whether or not he goes into
Round one makes a lot of sense to demittrof is
is you know, he sees some positives there but doesn't
necessarily see him as a first round pick. But Thomas
is always you know, he was in New England with
Tom Brady, he was it. You know, he drafted Matt
Ryan third overall, the only other drafted only one other

(05:42):
quarterback of Sean Renfree in the seventh round of twenty thirteen.
And you know he's not been a guy. Demittrov, who
you know is is attracted to quarterbacks who are less toolsy,
if that makes sense. He would always prefer a Trey
Lance prospect to a Mac Jones a prospect, if that
makes sense. So I think with Penix, an older guy,

(06:04):
a guy who you know, maybe isn't necessarily in that class,
I think he would probably let that guy fall a
little bit further than most teams would.

Speaker 7 (06:14):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (06:14):
And to the point, Eric, one of the things that
I haven't kind of gotten is there's a lot of
people making the case are like, well, you know, teams
like Atlanta or others like draft him, draft him, and
then of course you know you can you can use
him later. But for me, that doesn't make sense, right,
the guy's gonna be twenty four, saint thing with bo Knicks.
If they're gonna sit by the time they see the
field for the first time, they.

Speaker 1 (06:32):
Could be twenty six. Like that. That's not really conducive
for a high pick, right.

Speaker 6 (06:39):
It's not.

Speaker 5 (06:39):
And and the thing about yeah exactly, I mean the
thing is is that the cheap years for some of
these mid tier guys are right away, right like, especially
if you see a ceiling on a player, you got
to play Hi right away. And Nicks Panix like they
might be at their best in the years one through four.
We've seen a lot of guys, you know, Mac Jones specifically,

(07:01):
like do their best work early on and then when
they get found out, it doesn't look great.

Speaker 6 (07:06):
So yeah, I agree with you one hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
Eric Eager once again hanging with us here on this
Friday morning, VP of Research and Development at Sumer Sports
at Eric Eager underscore he's got his mock draft out
right now, and you know, the discussion we've had here
for it feels like a couple of weeks now is
what are the Falcons going to do at eight?

Speaker 4 (07:25):
And I'm going to make a hot take here.

Speaker 3 (07:28):
I don't think it'll be a quarterback, even though I
did see a mock draft yesterday have them selecting Michael
Pennix with the eighth overall pick, but Dallas Turner has
been penciled in at number eight. What's your feel and
what have you heard on the first defensive players selected?
Because it feels like it's it's been written in that
Dallas Turner will be that guy. But would you be

(07:50):
surprised in six days if it's someone else that is
that first defensive player selected.

Speaker 5 (07:56):
Yeah, I mean, if you look at the market over
unders in some spots, you see Realma Dunza being more
of a favorite in some places to go. You know,
I'm looking at one marker right now. The Dunes is
a favorite to go under eight and a half and
Turner's a favor to go over nine and.

Speaker 6 (08:12):
A half or so.

Speaker 5 (08:13):
And so I do think it's like really like one
out right, there's this narrative and I agree with it.
Where you know last year the Rams with with Raheem
Morris's defensive coordinator, drops their edge players in the coverage
one hundred three hundred times. When you look at how
Alabama does it like that? That is you know, Dallas

(08:33):
Turner ninety one times last year dropped into coverage the
other two guys, Jared Verse as well as Light two
lots of twenty one times, both of them. So that
that's a little bit of a fit there. If Turner
doesn't go to the Falcons today eight, then it's you know,
then you're talking about quinnyon Mitchell, you're talking about uh,
you know, even you're talking about what it's It could

(08:55):
be anybody, right, and so it really is a you know,
you probably if you've wanted bet Turner first defensive player,
you want to bet like you probably want to find
a very thin market where you're getting a higher payout,
because it really is Turner to the Falcons that I
think is the is the one out there that you have.
And so don't widen, don't don't get a payout that

(09:17):
reflects a wider set of outcomes on Turner, take take
one that reflects the very narrow circumstances he goes to
the first defensive player, which I think is him going
to Atlanta at eight.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
All right, Eric, as the market sits right now, what
do you think is the most playable prop out there?

Speaker 5 (09:34):
Oh, that's a good question. I think I think over
offensive lineman is big. The prices vary, but I still
think laying the favorite there is pretty good under and
if you want to plus price one, I think under
four and a half quarterbacks is.

Speaker 4 (09:50):
Still yeah, pretty solid.

Speaker 3 (09:52):
That's what I'm talking about, Eric, but giving us that
smile that we need on our first on our face
real quickly got thirty seconds Bode Nicks?

Speaker 4 (10:00):
What is uh? What is your boss? Thomas Demetrov think
of him?

Speaker 5 (10:05):
I think he liked him a little bit more than Pennix.
We did a mocker at yesterday with Marcus Whitman and
he had him go to the Broncos at twelve. I
think it's a little bit of an overpay, but he
likes I think he likes Nicks as a quick decision maker.

Speaker 6 (10:17):
And athlete I type of player more than he likes TenneT.

Speaker 3 (10:21):
Not what I wanted to hear, but I like the
under four and a half. Eric always appreciate thanks for
getting up with us. Hey, take care of house there,
he is, Eric eager sumer sports.

Speaker 4 (10:31):
All right, we've hit on it.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
Let's hear from some folks talk about what Washington might
do at number two and why did the market move
as much as it.

Speaker 8 (10:41):
Did Follow the Money. That's why I always say you
always follow. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (10:55):
This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and.

Speaker 9 (10:57):
Paully Howard on Vson, hour two of Follow the Money,
Tim Murray, Jonathan von Tobel, We're in for the fellas
on this Friday morning here in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
Were brought to you by DraftKings. You could always follow
us on Twitter. You can hit him up at me
JVT at one Tim Murray, this tweet I found amusing.
Dana Orlowski just said, teams I could see surprising as
I put up air quotes and getting up early in
the draft for a quarterback. Broncos parentheses, Knicks stop, why well,

(11:38):
why do they need they need to go up from
twelve to get a guy who's got a second round grade?

Speaker 4 (11:43):
Okay, Minnesota may slash McCarthy. Okay, that makes some sense there.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
Surprise there talking about this.

Speaker 3 (11:51):
There are eleven and every mock that you look at
has them either going to four or five. I wouldn't
call that surprising. Raiders Daniels, okay, and then Seattle McCarthy
all right, thanks, Dan, Raiders are interesting sitting there at
thirteen different reports coming out it almost feels like and

(12:14):
I know it's a different regime now in Las Vegas,
but last year, you know who they loved portally had
number two on their board at.

Speaker 4 (12:25):
Quarterback, Hendon Hooker.

Speaker 1 (12:27):
That's right.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
They had a chance to draft him in the first round,
chance to draft him in the second round, and they didn't,
And then the third round came around and he got drafted.
Hendon Hooker did early third round, I mean by the
Detroit Lions.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
The thing that actually that could be true. I was
told somebody.

Speaker 3 (12:43):
They traded up to get Michael Mayer early in the
second round and he ended up, you know, towards the
end of the year being there starting.

Speaker 4 (12:49):
Tight end and a pretty productive one.

Speaker 2 (12:51):
But no, but I'm saying it is like, you can
you can like a prospect. You'll love a prospect, but
you can love them in the parameters of which you
have said for them, which is, I love this guy's
a fourth round pick, so if he's gonna be there, like, yeah,
we'll take them. But just because you love it prospect,
it doesn't mean you're going to necessarily draft them in
the first round. Obviously, there's more than one round in
which you can draft these guys. And second round picks
are still high picks. So when you're talking about bo

(13:12):
Nix and Michael Pennock's potentially going in the second round,
it's still a very high pick for a guy to
be selected in that round.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
Well, but then Hyer's coming to the second.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
Round and bow Knicks reportedly took a top thirty visit to.

Speaker 4 (13:22):
The New York Giants.

Speaker 3 (13:23):
It makes sense they have an early second round pick
and maybe they could get bow Knicks there because they
have questions at the quarterback position. Sean Payton and company
sitting there at twelve and not everybody and I think
a lot of people have come around on it. But
the assumption that well they have two crappy quarterbacks and

(13:48):
Jarrett Stidham and Ben Denucci on the roster, they have
no second round pick, well, they just got to pick
about bo Nicks.

Speaker 4 (13:53):
Why why they could trade back? They could trade up
from the third end to the second.

Speaker 3 (14:00):
I thought Eric Eager made a good point regarding the
fifth year option in the new CBA, where let's think
back to this past offseason, just a couple months ago.
What was a hold up a little bit on Justin
Fields because he had that fifth year option and it's expensive,
and do you want to go trade a lot of
draft capital to get a quarterback that has to be

(14:22):
paid very shortly with that fifth year option. So you know,
I know it's been brought up a lot, but you've
made the point a ton of times the fifth year option.
How many times has it happened? Lamar Jackson?

Speaker 4 (14:35):
Was that twenty Was that twenty eighteen?

Speaker 1 (14:38):
That was the whatever year it was that I'm talking about?

Speaker 2 (14:40):
Where of the seven years only one went over that
was that year?

Speaker 1 (14:44):
Yeah, yep.

Speaker 3 (14:45):
So we'll get some more thoughts on the draft. Jay Gruden,
former Washington head coach, will come up at the bottom
of the hour, curious to get his thoughts. We will
head to Washington coming up at nine o'clock this morning,
nine o'clock Eastern. Talked to JP Finley, Washington Commanders Beat report.
Just with this wildness in the market regarding the number
two overall pick.

Speaker 4 (15:04):
But let's circle back as we do.

Speaker 3 (15:06):
JVT have the play in tournament starting or finishing tonight.
I should say, right now, Sacramento is laying one and
a half against New Orleans and then Miami is laying
one and a half of Starting to see some twos
and actually at two and a half here at circa
in favor of Miami, So a little bit of difference

(15:27):
DraftKings sitting at one and a half two two and
a half out there with Miami in Chicago. So it
looks like some early morning money coming in on the
heat against the Bulls.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Yeah, and this could be potentially tied to you know,
Caruso whatnot, So we'll see if that's going to be
the case. We always see this, right, which is like
the toggling back and forth. We talked about this earlier
in the week when we were bringing up Lakers and Pelicans.
So you know, when Mitch and I were talking about
that matchup, brought to the fact that, hey, look like,
let's play Lakers money line now plus one o five
when Anthony Davis, as I say, you can kind of
steal some CLV because Anthony Davis is gonna get rule

(15:56):
within probably closed like minus one oh five, maybe minus
one ten. It's exactly what happens in that regard, and
I think it's probably going to be the same thing here, right,
which is, you know, the market kind of heads in
one direction a little bit, not that much because you
have some questionable status and then you're going to come
back down. But as I wrote about, you know this
stuff on the website of Vason dot com. We got
all our series previews everything like that up there, and
our playing tournament previews for myself and Zach Cohen. Yes,

(16:18):
I wrote about for this one. To me, it would
be Miami or Pass at minus one and a half,
you have more of a trustworthy team defensively here for
the Miami Heat, the way that they can play zone. Yes,
you are missing Jimmy Butler and Terry Razier, so your
backcourt creation offensively is going to be pretty challenged, but
you do have some small signs right that you can

(16:38):
actually do pretty well here. When Tyler Herro was playing
point guard without Terry Verzier or Jimmy Butler on the floor,
Miami had an offensive rating one hundred and twenty point three.
Are they going to be able to replicate that exactly today? No,
But Tayler Herro is a pretty good offensive guard. You
saw in that fourth quarter that he kind of came alive,
was hitting some pretty big shots for them against Philadelphia
to maybe push the seventy six ers potentially get a win.

(16:59):
Ultimately not the case. I also think he was the
one that pushed the game over, right, He hit the
three at the end to put it over, so he
was shooting the ball particularly well. You'll be able to
take advantage potentially of nikol Vusovich, the way that they
played defensively, So that's going to work, and just the
way that you can defend at a high level here
and playing at home. As we've kind of discussed, home
court's worth a lot in the postseason. These to me
are postseason games. These are especially tonight, tim These are

(17:22):
elimination games. These are win or go home.

Speaker 4 (17:24):
And hero by the way, yeah yeah, yeah yeah te he.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
So like this is these are spots where I think
home court is worth a lot. More so when you're
looking at just like one and a half, for example,
you know, to say that Chicago, I get again, Jimmy
Butler's not out there, But to say that Chicago still
rates as a better team on a neutral, I just
I don't think that really vibes. And at the very best,
these two teams should be pick on a neutral, which
means you give a full home court for Miami. Makes

(17:49):
some sense that we're kind of heading in the direction
of the Miami heat here, and I think that's the
one that sticks out.

Speaker 3 (17:53):
And once again you mentioned Alex Caruso at that ankle
injury looked worse than maybe it is. A WoDES reported
last night that there's optimism that once the swelling went down,
that he might be able to play tonight. But I
mean you look at him from a defensive standpoint, if
he's not one hundred percent, I mean that's that could
be a massive loss.

Speaker 2 (18:11):
If he's not out there, well, that's like look at
Jimmy Butler, right, yeah, Jimmy Butler played the rest of
the game against Philadelphia.

Speaker 4 (18:16):
Jimmy Butler is not the same shell of himself.

Speaker 2 (18:19):
There was possessions where you could just see him standing
in the corner and not moving and not involved in
the play. Go back to the year where James Harden
was in Brooklyn. It was reminiscent of that. Remember when
he like it's almost like tore the hamstring, right, and
but he played, but he was just standing out there
along the wing and just hitting catching shoot shots. Potentially,
so even if Alex Carusi plays to that point, how

(18:39):
healthy is he going to be? And with an ankle
injury and your primary value being as an on ball
defender against a guy like Tyler Hero. How effective are
you going to be in a matchup like this. So
we're starting to see those one and a half that
pretty much disappear across the board. It looks like two's
going to be the consensus number here in a manner
of moments, I think, but again, if Carusoe plays, you know,

(19:01):
if you're somebody that wants to bet Miami, just hold
out at this point if you want the best number possible.
If Cruso plays, so dip back down to like maybe
one and a half two and you'll get the better
number here. But I'd be fascinated to see if he
does and how effective he will be.

Speaker 3 (19:12):
You know, we I want to get to all the
series prices and maybe we'll carry it over to the
other side because it's fascinating. But you talk about another
positive break for the Boston Celtics, I mean, think about
how this bracket has broken for them. Now you're going
to face Miami if your thoughts are accurate, or Chicago,
who let's be honest, is you know what they were

(19:32):
on ten games under five hundred for a reason, instead
of potentially Philadelphia with Joel Embiid, and then your four
or five matchup is Cleveland because they tank the final
game instead of what could have possibly in Milwaukee. I
mean they should jvt's sleep walk to the Eastern Conference finals,
and you're seeing the price at minus two dollars. I

(19:54):
mean if Joe Mizzool in company don't make it to
the finals, that would be a disaster for the Celtics.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
Oh, I mean ABJEC failure like this is setting up
for them to bracket.

Speaker 3 (20:03):
For the Boston Celtics, they're the best team in the NBA.
They get a Miami team that won't have Jimmy Butler
if they win, or the Bulls, who, let's be honest,
not very good, and then you've got Cleveland Odo Orlando
waiting for them in the in the second round.

Speaker 6 (20:18):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (20:19):
No, I think that the total that has been thrown
out there, And this is not like an official betting
prop or anything like that, but if I were to
set the total losses in the Eastern Conference playoffs, so
not the finals, just the Eastern Conference playoffs at three
and a half, where would you go for total losses
for Boston.

Speaker 3 (20:37):
I think they'll lose maybe one in the first two rounds,
so I would take I would probably lean under because
you're looking at the bottom half of the bracket where
you know the Knicks and Sixers. Let's jump to that
series because it feels like, I mean, that's the only
series at this point in time that's a pick them
both ways, because the Pacers have jumped out to a
little bit of a serious favorite at least.

Speaker 4 (20:59):
At DraftKings of minus one twenty.

Speaker 3 (21:00):
If Joelle Embiid is fully healthy, boy, that is a
that's a battle for the Knicks. However, I'm curious your
thoughts because he had flashes in that game against Miami,
but he certainly didn't look fully healthy.

Speaker 2 (21:14):
No, I didn't, and so the series previou for this
is up on the website to a Visa dot com.
This is one where like I've kind of I've come
around more on New York in this series, the more
I like, watch some stuff yesterday and.

Speaker 1 (21:24):
Look New York hater yourself, right, That's why I got yesterday.
I was like, ah, the Knicks, hey truly extends out. No,
but I think when you look at.

Speaker 2 (21:31):
First off, you hit the most important point when you
watched Joel Embiid defensively in that game against Miami, he
wasn't even playing drop coverage, like he was just standing
at the elbow because he didn't want to move because
he wasn't really comfortable. And so if that's the way
you're gonna play defensively against the guy like Jalen Brunson,
who is brilliant in short mid range can eat you
alive in that short area of the floor, that's gonna

(21:52):
be a really big problem in New York. In terms
of their three point shooting, they take more threes, they
make more threes, they shoot at a really high clip.
They've got multiple forty percent three point shooters. Sixers don't
really do that. They shoot well, but they shoot a
low volume. So you win a little bit of the
math battle there right. In terms of how you're gonna
handle that, you have ogn Nanobi, a stellar defensive player
who you can put on Tyres Maxie and feel comfortable there.

(22:14):
There's there's a couple of things that really work in
their favor. You'll be got more on this, but I've
just come around more at the very least on what
the market's doing and pushing this in the next direction.
They think they deserve to be favored with a series
or the series in which they have home court.

Speaker 3 (22:26):
Former Washington head coach Jay Gruden will join us bottom
of the hour. But on the other side, our favorite
series prices in the NBA Playoffs.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
Get access to the betting Splits, folks. It is still
open for anybody who wants it. Yep, no pro subscription required.
Go visa dot com slash Splits. They have been opened
and ready for you to check out. Of course, get
all of the latest splits info from DraftKings for the
playing games, Major League Baseball Today and more.

Speaker 1 (22:57):
Check it out now Visa dot com slash.

Speaker 4 (22:59):
Flitz Best John with Devon Tobel. I'm Tim Murray.

Speaker 3 (23:01):
We're in for the fellas on this Friday morning. We've
got the final night of the play in tournament and
the big boys get rolling tomorrow. Four games Tomorrow, four games.
Sunday has to be JVT one of your favorite weekends
of the year.

Speaker 2 (23:16):
Oh yeah, very excited to watch it all the way through,
four games each day. Just sit down, tell everybody get out,
let's go.

Speaker 3 (23:22):
And a man who knows a thing or two about
the NBA doing some analytical work for the Portland Trailblazers
writing for Yahoo Sports and also catch them on his substack,
Tomthefinder dot com. It is Tom Havistro who joins us
here on our progressive guest line. Tom, good morning. We
appreciate you jumping on. We'll start with Miami without Jimmy Butler.

(23:42):
The questions about Alex Caruso. The injuries are piling up here,
which is kind of unfortunate to see, but you know,
we've talked about.

Speaker 1 (23:49):
It a lot.

Speaker 3 (23:50):
How do you expect Miami to perform tonight without Jimmy
Butler on the floor.

Speaker 7 (23:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 10 (23:57):
I used to cover the Miami Heat six years in Miami,
and I got up close and personal with the team
and the organization, and this is just going to be
fueling them in this game against the Chicago Bulls. Now
you can look analytically and not just how they operate
as an organization. Pat Riley likes to say, you know,
we're going to burn the boats. Basically, once you go

(24:17):
into battle and you can't go back. Now you're going
to burn the boats and go into battle. And that's
kind of the mentality they're going to go into this game,
and I expect that they will win in this game. Analytically,
they are thirteen and eight this season when bam Adebayo
plays and Jimmy Butler does not, so they do have
a good track record this year when they're having to

(24:39):
play shorthanded without Jimmy Butler and that very unfortunate injury
they're spraining his mcl in the playing game against the
Philadelphia seventy six ers, was hobbled throughout, and I think
when you look at the Miami Heat, they are going
to be shorthanded, but they've done this before and Eric Spolster,
I think is the best coach in the game, and

(25:00):
scheming wise, I suspect that the Chicago Bulls will struggle
to deal with bam Audebaio and that zone defense that
did throttle a lot of what Philadelphia.

Speaker 7 (25:09):
Wanted to do in that game.

Speaker 10 (25:10):
And if you had had a healthy Jimmy Butler against Philadelphia,
I think they win that game handily. So I expect
the Miami Heap to miss Jimmy Butler, but much less
than I think what people expect.

Speaker 7 (25:24):
Give him.

Speaker 10 (25:24):
That in those twenty one games where they did not
have Jimmy Butler this year but bam Adebayo did play,
there were actually five games over five hundred.

Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, in the market would agree with that. We went
from minus one and a half to minus two and
a half now from Miami. So there are some thought
from betters as well that the heater are going to
pull this out. You kind of answered the question I
have for you. Are we going to see plenty of this?
As I called it in the first hour, the amorphous
zone defense that had many different shapes against Philadelphia. You
think there's gonna be plenty of that tonight.

Speaker 10 (25:50):
Yeah, And remember Eric Spolster has a bunch of stuff
up his sleeve. He always does, and he'll throw Duncan
Robinson at the top of a one to three to
one and high Tyler Hero defensively, and that's kind of the.

Speaker 7 (26:03):
Kind of trick that he pulls up his sleeve.

Speaker 10 (26:06):
Is in today's NBA, you want to target poor defenders,
and he by going zone with two guys Duncan Robinson
and Tyler Hero, oftentimes the offense can't get that targeting.
They can't headhunt for those defensive matchups, and that really
neutralizes a lot of what opposing teams want to do.
And the zone defense has been very effective and Jimmy

(26:28):
Butler or not in some ways. Without Jimmy Butler, I
suspect that they will go to that zone more because
Jimmy Butler is such a good on ball defender. Going
zone kind of gets back to what they do best
in that zone, throwing the opposing offense off. And I
suspect that Alex Caruso, as good as he is, hobbled

(26:49):
Alex Caruso is going to be tough because you're gonna
want to play that guy for forty minutes, but he's
in any way compromised. Alex Caruso at sixty percent is
not an average NBA player, so they're gonna want to
play him a lot.

Speaker 7 (27:05):
But we'll see.

Speaker 10 (27:06):
The Miami Heat will be testing him every minute of
this game.

Speaker 3 (27:09):
Tom Havistrow joining us here on Follow the Money. You
could follow him on Twitter at Tom Havistrow. He joins
us on our Progressive guest line. The nightcap is New
Orleans and Sacramento, and once again another injury to note.
Of course, Zion Williamson out and he was playing phenomenally
well against the Los Angeles Lakers, so brandon Ingram his
second game back from injury, going up against a Sacramento

(27:30):
team has got their own injury problems to deal with,
but they looked fantastic against Golden State.

Speaker 4 (27:35):
What do you expect to see late night? Right now?

Speaker 3 (27:37):
New Orleans a slight home underdog around one one and
a half to Sacramento.

Speaker 10 (27:43):
Didn't you guys find it interesting that Willie Green kept
brandon Ingram on the bench during that final few year rates?

Speaker 7 (27:49):
I mean I was.

Speaker 10 (27:50):
Sitting there being like, wait, Zion's out and you're still
keeping Bi on the bench.

Speaker 7 (27:55):
And that told me one or two things.

Speaker 10 (27:58):
Either brandon Ingram they have a really load management mandate
to keep his minutes down so that he would be
fresh for this game, or that injury is more serious
than we believe, or that is publicly known because brandon
Ingram is an all star. He's a guy that could
have rescued them offensively down the stretch without Zion Williamson

(28:19):
and Willie Green not going to him tells me one
or two things to be true. And so that is
really alarming to me. I think if you're the Pelicans,
you really hope that they're saving brandon Ingram down the
stretch there so that he doesn't overdo it, to over
extend himself and then they have another major injury that
can knock him out for this game, but I think
that might have been overprotective. So maybe we'll see brandon

(28:42):
Ingram carry them in this game. But it is certainly
alarming to me that they did not go to brandon
Ingram in that down the stretch in that game. They
certainly needed him, but CJ. McCollum might have to carry
this offense all the way. I think the Sacramento Kings
them being shorthanded as well. Without Malik Monk and Kevin Herder.
They looked great against the Olden State Warriors, but to me,
I think brandon Ingram maybe they're resting him for this

(29:04):
game tonight, and I expect them to come out firing.

Speaker 2 (29:07):
Let's get to some of these series, and the one
that I think is the most intriguing tom is is
Milwaukee in Indiana. We know what's going on with Giannis.
The market has reacted quite heavily here. They opened this
series price up as Milwaukee minus three fifty. The Pacers
are now favored in this series. Am I crazy to
kind of want to buy back a little bit here?
On Milwaukee. They haven't seen each other since adri Mcanifer
got fired and Pascal Siakam was a Toronto Raptor.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
A lot has changed.

Speaker 7 (29:31):
Here, JVT.

Speaker 10 (29:33):
I kind of feel the same way is that seems
like an overreaction. But what I also noticed in this
series is that the Pacers play the exact brand of
basketball that usually crushes the Milwaukee Bucks. The Milwaukee Bucks
have an atrocious transition defense this season. They have not
gotten back on defense. It was true with Griffin, it

(29:55):
was true with Doc Rivers, and I suspect that they
are just going to try to run them away Walkee
Bucks out of the gym. And what we know about
NBA defense, if you're not locked in, if you're having
chemistry issues or camaraderie or just locker room issues where
not everyone's on the same page, that's where it shows
up is in the transition defense, because that, more than anything,

(30:16):
is about everybody being on the same page and wanting
go the extra mile. And we know this about the
Indiana Pacers. They want to run you out of the gym.
Tyrese Haliburton has been kind of hampered with the hamstring
injury from earlier this year. The player participation policy prompted
him to try to get back earlier than I think
what he wanted to do. But we know even without

(30:36):
Tyrese Haliburton, it's not just a one man system.

Speaker 7 (30:39):
This isn't a James Harden situation where he believes he
is the system.

Speaker 10 (30:42):
No matter who's on the floor, TJ McConnell or Tyrese Haliburton,
they're going to try to run the Milwaukee Bucks out
of the gym, and with Brook Lopez at his age,
and they're so much better as a set defense. I
think the Indiana Pacers have kind of this David versus Goliath.

Speaker 7 (30:59):
The slim is that pace of play.

Speaker 10 (31:02):
So I hear you that I think it is a
little over the top how much it's swung in the
Indiana Pacers direction. But I do think that they have
the one thing that the Milwaukee Bucks hate to space
in this series is a team that wants to run
on every opportunity.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
And the other one I really want your opinion on.
We'll go back to last postseason. The market made Phoenix
a favorite over the Denver Nuggets in that Western Conference
semifinals and they ended up losing that series in six.
They are favored again and it's not slowing down over
Minnesota is the market getting this wrong again.

Speaker 10 (31:36):
I've been kind of bearish on the not the Philadelphia
seventy six Ers, the Phoenix Suns in this entire season
is because I just feel like Bradley Beal, while he
has a star name, he does not have a star
impact and he has a very redundant skill set. With
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, can Bradley Beal play it
be a two way star in the postseason?

Speaker 7 (31:57):
I don't see it.

Speaker 10 (31:58):
I just think that Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are
the two, by far the best players on this team,
and then the depth really falls off. They need two
way guys on this roster. I just don't see it.
Minnesota Timberwolves. I'm going to pick them in this series.
I think it's going to go long. But when you
look at the Minnesota Timberwolves with Karl Anthony townsback, they
have so many more weapons, and if kd or Devin
Booker don't have it, I just think this series could

(32:21):
be over quickly.

Speaker 6 (32:22):
Tom.

Speaker 3 (32:22):
Before we let you run, Tom have as show joining
us on our progressive guest line. Lakers and Denver certainly
most high profile series. We'll see if it's the most
competitive Nuggets a pretty sizable favorite understandably, so how much
of a shot do you give the Lakers here?

Speaker 10 (32:37):
How are the referees going to be calling this series?
Because that's the biggest thing on Yahoo Sports. We had
a video I put out called the Big Number where
the Lakers had a plus five hundred and seven free
throw differential this season, by far the most in the NBA,
and I think that is going to dictate this series.
How many whistles are the Los Angeles Lakers going to get?

(33:00):
And Nikola Jokic if he gets in early foul trouble,
that's exactly what the Lakers want. And the referees have
so much power in this series, So watch out how
the officiating works out in this series.

Speaker 4 (33:10):
His substack Tomthefinder dot Com.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
He's doing work for Yahoo Sports as well as analytics.
Wore the Blazers, Tom Havistro, Tom, appreciate it next time.
Anytime as there is, Tom Habstrow will put a bow on.

Speaker 4 (33:22):
Follow the money and when we come back, what's in pockets?

Speaker 8 (33:41):
You know, if the cornback was not, if his girlfriend
was not. These Kings are a burial a blowout for
you in luck you can bet your children's on board
children's children honyas.

Speaker 3 (33:54):
I was so good whenever I bet, I could change
the odds for every book maker in the country. All right,
let's head into the weekend with some plays in our pockets.
I will do one NFL draft play, a new NFL
draft play. We have been building that portfolio JBT for
the past couple of weeks on vs in primetime.

Speaker 1 (34:14):
Great numbers in there. I can't wait to lose them.

Speaker 4 (34:16):
All, absolutely looking forward to that. These numbers move very quickly.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
But this is the current price for Texas wide receiver
at A I Mitchell, and we're gonna go Horns down
because I believe it will be.

Speaker 4 (34:29):
A long first round.

Speaker 3 (34:31):
I would not be surprised if at and I Mitchell
fell out of the first round. I think the price
here is important. DraftKings is offering twenty seven and a half.
CIRCA has twenty eight and a half. Why is that important?
Because the Buffalo Bills are sitting there twenty eight, a
team that I believe is around minus two to fifty
to draft the wide receiver in the first round. While
I do think he could drop out of the first round,

(34:52):
twenty seven and a half is my comfort zone. I'll
play over twenty seven and a half for ad and
I Mitchell. Some things coming out the Bob McGinn articles,
you know, regarding ad Mitchell, but I just think all
in all, and I heard Luke Swain talk about this
on Gills Show yesterday at Vegas Refund there's a belief
that the wide receivers after the top three of Harrison,

(35:14):
Neighbors and a Doomsday could be dropping a little bit.
So I think Mitchell falls into that group. So I
will go over twenty seven and a half current price
at DraftKings minus one thirty, and then my other play
gave it out earlier this week on VS in primetime.
It has not moved. I'm gonna go Nuggets on the
series price here. They're minus three ten favorites in the
series at DraftKings, which by the way, is the shortest

(35:36):
price that any book is offering for the Nuggets to
just win that series. I'm gonna go minus one and
a half games. So they have to win this in six, four,
five or six. We catch this at minus one forty,
so if it goes to game seven, it's a losing bet.
You just heard from Tom Havistrow saying, how is this
going to be officiated? Certainly a fair question. I think
the Lakers are better than what we saw last year.

(35:57):
I like the fact that for the Lakers, you're getting
them on relative good rest, where you're getting from Tuesday
all the way to Saturday, and first round matchups, as
we know, get stretched out a little bit longer. I
guess they're just a better team. I don't think they
have much of an answer for Nicola Yokic so Nuggets
minus one and a half series price at minus one forty,
both of those currently available at draft games.

Speaker 2 (36:19):
All right, now, I feel comfortable doing this now, all
right now that Mitch is not here. But this is
the way this is gone here. Mitch has Pacers win
this series at plus one ninety five. Now you're getting
about even money and maybe a little bit more. You
can hold out and see where it goes. But it's
just a number play here. I think that we've gone
a little too far now in one direction, Tom was

(36:41):
I thought the analogy there was really smart, with you know,
David de Glai from the sling shot being the transition defense.
I still trust that this Pacers defense is subpar along
the perimeter. I get that they're a little bit better
in half court situations, but numbers would all dictate they're
still very below average. And still trusted Damian Lillard can
get this thing done. It might be a long series.
And guess what if it's a long series that increases

(37:03):
the chances of getting Yanasant to the Kompa back out
there on the floor.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
Give me the bucks to win the series against the
Indiana Pacers to bet none. You know we can't both win? Stinks?
Wush you commit on it?

Speaker 2 (37:15):
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Speaker 3 (37:35):
Every NBA series starts this weekend. The NHL series are
all set and ready to roll as well. How about
that the Golden Knights.

Speaker 1 (37:46):
I don't care with that well just yesterday. So we
had Mike Palman yesterday.

Speaker 2 (37:52):
I tried to fit in a selfish question about an
NHL future that I have that I totally totally bet
on my own accord and was not just a convince Mike. Yeah,
Mike samechu convinced me to do it, and I was like,
you know what, I need something to sweat.

Speaker 1 (38:03):
Let's do this thing.

Speaker 2 (38:03):
When I had two tickets, but Derek Stevens and Wilbo's
Detroit wed Wings Red Wings did not make it.

Speaker 4 (38:08):
A cap baby. Yeah, suck on that, Wilbo.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
So when I asked Mike about this yesterday, I mean
I was asking producer Luke. I was like, you know,
the reaction when I was like, hey, what about Nashville
and Mike like give me like five words on it,
I was like, oh man, they must be like they
must be, They're probably gonna open up.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
It's like, you know, four, Duke, I don't know, like
three to one to win this year. It's only minus
one fifty five. My pred's got some life.

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Here, man, because they want thirty at DraftKings right now
against the Canucks.

Speaker 2 (38:34):
Come on, I thought, by my judge of by Mike's reaction,
I thought they're gonna be dead in the water. I
was looking at a massive underdog. My preed's got some life.
Let's go Sunday night, puck Drop can't wait to watch it.

Speaker 4 (38:45):
I love the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Speaker 3 (38:48):
They're they're incredible to watch, the drama and got some
sid series prices, no doubt outside of you know, my
CAP's being plus three forty.

Speaker 4 (38:57):
Against the Rangers. Can they win a game? Come on,
win one game?

Speaker 2 (39:02):
Biggest robbery that team making it in any better teams
in there, like the Detroit Red Wings.

Speaker 4 (39:07):
Tell your Red Wings not to lose what both games
against the Caps down the stretch?

Speaker 1 (39:10):
You can't do that?

Speaker 4 (39:11):
Yeah? And then the Caps won with.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Oh yeah, it's gonna sae.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
They win because the Flyers of course have to pull
because they need a regulation wins.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
That was one of the craziest endings I've seen to
a hockey game that you know at And also if
if if they had known that the Red Wings game
had gone to overtime, which I think in real time
it had like a minute prior, they would have known
they were eliminated, so they probably wouldn't have pulled the goalie.
But thank you Flyers, for pulling the goalie so my

(39:40):
Caps can get hammered by the fighting Johnny Lazarus's and
the New York Rangers. So all eight series prices are up.
Let's jump back to the NBA as we run through
these series prices. We I gave you very limited time,
so poor poor hosting on my hand my part there
Cleveland and Orlando, I know, and I've made my jokes

(40:04):
too about Cleveland ducking Uh, you know the two seed
in Philadelphia, and and and did blowing the Hornets game, uh,
which was just an embarrassment.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
Three one time, Yeah, in the fourth.

Speaker 3 (40:15):
Quarter, and that's not a way to win. And Amani
baits as your point guard. But they are a minus
one ninety favorite here against the Magic. This series will
start on Saturday. It's the first game, I believe, right
Saturday at one o'clock Eastern, where it deserves to be.

Speaker 4 (40:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (40:29):
This these uh, these games will be You have to
look hard for the NBA TV series that is the
Cavaliers without Lebron and the Magic.

Speaker 4 (40:36):
But uh, just quick thoughts.

Speaker 1 (40:38):
On this series.

Speaker 3 (40:39):
I think this is the only series we haven't really
touched on here, uh in the show.

Speaker 2 (40:42):
Yeah, this is gonna be uh like I get them like,
we'll call them get them out Special, which is let's
get the kids out early. This is where we go
to the park. This is when we uh, you know,
we go do stuff on Saturday. Because you could track
this game on your phone, you don't really I'll say that,
I don't know. I'm not gonna bet this series. I
think that the Cavaliers deserve to favorite here, and.

Speaker 1 (41:00):
To this degree think is something you can quibble with.

Speaker 2 (41:02):
I think it's probably about fair by my judgment, because
here's the thing Orlando. The one thing we saw from
Orlando down the stretch outside of just the results right
which were, yeah, they kind of floundered a little bit,
got a really big win over Milwaukee to maintain their
spot here inside of the top six.

Speaker 1 (41:15):
Had they lost it, lose the division and they're in
the play it.

Speaker 2 (41:18):
But they struggle on offense, like they're not a good
offensive team, and that has led to some of their
shortcomings down the stretch. And while Donovan Mitchell is not healthy,
he has been abys mull since receiving the ejections in
his knee. I don't know, to Kawhi Leonard, that might
not be great and coming back from that. But at
the very least with Cleveland, Tim you've got a good

(41:38):
defensive front court and Evan Mobiley and Jarrett Allen. You
have added shooting to your roster in Georgi Yang and
Max Struz. You still have Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell.
Those are edges that, over the course of a series,
right should play out in favor of Cleveland. And even
though it was bad last year, you are the veteran team,
You've been here before this Orlando's first time around. Donovan

(42:00):
Mitchell has played a multiple playoff series. This team together,
they did get embarrassed by the Nicks last season, but
they were at least there.

Speaker 1 (42:06):
They've They've got.

Speaker 2 (42:07):
This experience and spattering of these guys I think they
namely Garland. I believe Garland was on that playing team
as well a couple of years back for Cleveland. So like,
this is a team that's been there and kind of
done that a bit, and given the edges you have,
I think that they should win this series. But in
my confidence, coming in and laying a buck ninety five
with a team whose best offensive player is been abysmal
since he's come back from seid injury or whose other

(42:28):
offensive piece in Darius Garland has been very inconsistent, and
he's gonna play with two non shooters at a time.
I'm not really like running to go and bet that.
So I think for me it's hey, if you're picking it,
it's gonna be Cleveland the deserve to be favored. Maybe
it should be more like a Bucks seventy five bucks sixty.
So thus there is some value in Orlando. But I
do think Cleveland wins, this moves on and then he's
snuffed out in the next round.

Speaker 3 (42:49):
So we got two games tonight, no official plays from
you on either one of those. Both worth looking at
end game, just the way the win kind of blows
it up.

Speaker 2 (42:58):
I'll be on my I think I'll be on Miami
time minus one and a half, like later today when
you just want to do something. By the way, yeah,
so I think one and a half is a fair
number to play there on Miami. And it'll also sit
back and wait. Like again at crucill plays, this will
bump back to like you know, two minus one and
a half. Potentially we saw exactly the same thing happen
with the Los Angeles and New Orleans when we talked
about that dynamic where ad He's questionable market in the

(43:20):
morning moves toward New Orleans. You're looking at one and
a half in a plus one oh five of the
money line. You can steal a little CLV come back,
and of course that game closes where it does. So
I think Miami, of the two playing games, Miami would
be the side for me, with their their blob of
his own defense to go out there and muck things
up against Chicago.

Speaker 3 (43:36):
All right, Gils coming up next. We'll be back on
Monday in our normal spot vs. In primetime six to
nine pm Eastern Time. Diamond strong hands was your phrase
over under on quarterbacks four and a half.

Speaker 4 (43:50):
It's plus one sixty right now. If you listen to
our show, you would have got a better price. How
many quarterbacks we go in the first round?

Speaker 1 (44:00):
Three?

Speaker 4 (44:00):
Three?

Speaker 1 (44:03):
JJ oh babe.

Speaker 3 (44:07):
Thanks to Jay Gruden, Thanks to Eric Eager, Thanks to
Tom Habistrow and JP Finley for JBT. I'm Tim Murray Gil.
He's up next right here on v SND Sports Betty Network.
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