Follow the Money | April 15, 2024 | Hour 3

In hour three of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and Jonathan Von Tobel are joined by Tom Byrne, NBA Analyst on Mad Dog Sports Radio, as they talk about the NBA Play-In Tournament and set NBA Playoff matchups. Also on the show, the hosts give out their plays in "In Pocket Plays".

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Follow the Money.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's why you always follow. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (00:04):
Yeah, This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Paully Howard on Vson.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome in. It is Follow the Money here on Vson,
the Sports Betting Network. The show is brought to you
by DraftKings Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel. He's
in for Pauli. Pauli is on vacation this week. Starting
this hour off talking about NBA, the playing games, and
the first round series prices. Tom Byrne does a great
job covering this sport on Mad Dog Sports Radio Serious XM.

(00:31):
He joins us here in the progressive guest line. Tom,
thanks for the time today. How are you?

Speaker 1 (00:35):
I'm very well, gentlemen fired up? I tell you they
got lucky again. The NBA was just playing tournament Lebron Stepp,
Joe l embiid It's crazy.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
It really is must watch television tomorrow night and on Wednesday.
Let's begin with the Lakers game as they are currently
well pretty much a one point dog at New Orleans.
JBT and I were speculating earlier we think that the
Lakers are going to go off as the favorite here.
Do you agree with that?

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Who?

Speaker 2 (01:01):
Do you like in the game.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah, I definitely think the golf is the favorite, but
I don't know that it'll be much more than a point.
I think it could be pretty firm. I took the
point in a half to be honest with you. I
know everybody's annoyed about this in New Orleans, all the Lakers.
This is not the matchup we want. They this pummeled us.
But I think what you guys want to get into
is fascinating, and that is the idea that the Lakers
might not be as motivated as you'd assume in this

(01:25):
sort of spot because the winner gets Denver and that's
the hardest reality for the Lakers, who are not beating
the Nuggets. That's the five game series, all due respect
to Lebron and a day that's not lasting that long.
And I think the Lakers know that. And this isn't
to kill Oklahomom City because they're a young team that
doesn't make a lot of young teams sort of mistakes.
It's weird. You can kind of trust them, but they're
a thin front line and most importantly, they're incredibly inexperienced.

(01:48):
If you're the Lakers, you feel much better about the
thunder and so that's a little wrinkled that you got
to remember.

Speaker 3 (01:54):
In this game.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
So, tom how do you think that manifests? Right?

Speaker 4 (01:56):
Like, I don't think that we're going to get an
injury report tomorrow and the Labron James and the Davis
aren't playing. Maybe it's a possibility, But is this more
of like a all right, we're down by like get
ten in the last couple of minutes, instead of pushing
for this, we're going to call the dogs off? If
that does, If that is a thought, how does that
manifest in a game like this exactly?

Speaker 1 (02:14):
How do you quantify it exactly? I don't know. You know,
we probably spent too much time as handicappers trying to
dissect this sort of thing, if we're fair about it.
But I think that's what it is. If they're down,
it's getting later in the game. I don't know if
they would go as hard and that spot as they
would otherwise they might think about starting to get some
guys some breast here thinking all right, not the end

(02:34):
of the world, we'll rest up, play Sacramento or go
to State. Now that is, you know, that's icy, whether
you're playing Sacramento or go to State. They're gonna be
dangerous in their own way. Now it's one, it done.
They haven't played well against Sacramento all year and go
to State as step and so Yeah, that's the question.
How do you quantify that? That's what I've been asking
myself with this entire handicap. How do I quantify the
old heads? Because I'm seeing value with all these teams

(02:57):
playing the old heads. I like the Pelicans plus one
of the hand this is going to be a little
surprise in the many, but I like Sacramento plus two
and a half. I'm thinking about taking Minnesota against Phoenix
and Kevin Durant minus a point a half. I wonder
if that could get a one somewhere in some shop.
You know. Maybe I'm underrating the idea that these old
heads Durant, Steph and Lebron could take it to that

(03:17):
next level that they haven't been willing to show in
the regular season. But I'm not one hundred percent sure
I'm buying that, and the numbers certainly don't support it.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
Okay, how about the Eastern Conference end the play in
number with the sixers, the seven as we speak, the
heat the eight. The winner here will move on the
Knicks looming. Now, the Sixers are four and a half
point favored in this game against the heat and the
play inside. What do you make of that number?

Speaker 1 (03:41):
Yeah, I made it the same number. That's a great number.
I don't know that you could play that. I think
the Philadelphia seventy six Ers are the ultimate wildcard because
when Joe LIMBII is one hundred percent, I've never seen
a sixer in my lifetime and I go to a
lot of games. Is that more impactful both ends of
the floor. The reality is he's usually about eighty percent
of himself in the postseason, and just that difference alone,
is that thereferences between losing the Toronto and seven are

(04:01):
beating them, plus in this time losing the Boss and
are beating them as he was banged up again, you know,
always dragging the legs, broken faces, and so this year
the question is was he out yesterday because the Phillies,
I'm sorry, the seventy six ers were competent up they'd
win the game anyway, and they you know, we're gonna
do that, so it probably makes sense. Or that little
tweak that we saw the other night that he came

(04:22):
back and played, is that a bigger deal than we know,
and so it's hard to really say what we're gonna get.
But I think Miami is dangerous. I don't think they're
gonna find a fifty dozen of the shoulders again this year.
I think Philadelphia survives at the ants that plays in
New York. But four and half's good number.

Speaker 4 (04:38):
So what about this one? Talking me off the ledge here?
I bet on the Hawks to win the division before
the season started. They stink they can't do anything but
Trey Young's back, and we've seen them flex their muscles
in the play and they smoked the heat last year.

Speaker 2 (04:50):
What do you make of their matchup here with Chicago?

Speaker 1 (04:53):
This game is awful? Is it not the only people
are going to be watching this? Or the handicappers? This
is like the Cleveland Orlando series. Just give that NBA
TV and go away this. And you know, these of
these teams are any good. So it's hard to trust either.
The number to me is right on points. I see
what you're saying. Maybe Atlanta they've been through these sort
of battles before. The Jane Murray Trey Young pairing, though

(05:16):
JVT has been a massive disappointment. They just don't sell
well at all. You know, the Jeante Murray is a
good two way player, but he has an impact with
in the way I thought he would. In Atlanta, Trey
Young is just horrific defender. It's the same short of
trouble that Milwaukee's having with Dame Lillard out there in
the perimeter. He just can't defend that. It kills you.
And so this is a stayaway game for me. You
want to play an in game, try to get a

(05:37):
feel that might make a little bit more sense.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
Follow the money here on v SIN, the Sports Betting Network.
Our guest Tom Burne does a great job with the
NBA on Mad Dog Sports Radio series XM. You can
follow him on x He's apt number one. Tom Byrne,
how about some series prices then and JVT and I
were also kicking this around.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
Tom.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
We don't think that many people are going to make
the case for the Clippers, like when you see ESPN's
come out probably later on today, Like let's say they're
sixteen seventeen of their experts picking. I think maybe two
will pick the Clippers because of the Mavericks recent play,
But it's basically a pick them. Do you give the
Clippers a pretty good chance to win this series.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
Though, Yeah, I haven't winning.

Speaker 4 (06:14):
The series full wow, there you go.

Speaker 1 (06:16):
Yeah, I think we could trust Kawhi Leonardy. I mean
we saw last year before the injury, he was taken
it to Kevin Durant. I mean it was it was
embarrassing the man, and so I think you're gonna get
that verse of the Kauai back and listen. James Ardis
is not somebody you want to trust. I get it.
But if we're gonna be fair about this, I mean,
how about the Game one performance with no mbat on
the road in Boston to step back to win the game.
Game five, I was in the building, game goes to overtime.

(06:38):
He's the best player in the flour so I mean
there are times when he plays well enough. Paul George
is another guy who's got that reputation as a choke artist.
And okay, but if you go back to his Indiana games,
everybody thought he was going to be the next great
postseason player. So these sort of things could change on
a whim. Russell Westbrook coming off the bench is a
much better spot. He's not forcing things. We all love. Tyler, Well,

(06:58):
let's see him figure this thing out. I know Dallas
is red high and they are scary because they're defending.
That was always their discernible weakness and now they are defending.
But home court advantage was worth two point two points
a game in the regular season. It's always worth over
somewhere between four and five per one of the possessions
a game. I got to knock that down a little
bit because the better team usually has home court. But

(07:19):
home court is a still a big deal in the NBA.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
So actually that leads me to my next question for you. Overall,
So we saw last year tome like home court advantage
in the regular season was fine, but then the really
ratcheted up in the postseason. And I think I was
looking at it, I had about like five, maybe four
and a half points. What do you think that the
ratcheting up home court? What do you think it's worth
here in the postseason?

Speaker 1 (07:42):
I have it at three point seven right now? Okay, yeah,
I lowered it. I had it at four point three
based on points per possession last year. It was four
point six two years ago, four point three this past year.
But I knock it down a little over a half
points just based on the reality that more times than not.
The better team's going to be home. It's the best
of five to three. Out of three to five, the

(08:02):
better team's home, right. If it's a seven, four to seven,
the better team. So I knocked it down a peg,
but three point seven is still a massive adjustment, and
so I do think that's necessary. You can't handicap it
the same way you would have the regular season. And
I do think that applies to the playing game. Do
you agree with that Davy thing? Not just the playoffs?

Speaker 4 (08:18):
Oh, I think absolutely. I mean there are many game sevens, right,
it's winner go home essentially.

Speaker 1 (08:22):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I absolutely agree. I've heard people
say otherwise. I don't know why anyway.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
All right, well you mentioned that you are looking at
the Timberwolves here at a very small number at home
against the Suns. They played yesterday, Suns blew them out.
What do you make the series price? Then, too, you
want to add a little Minnesota to the portfolio, as
the Sons are about a buck fifteen favorite here.

Speaker 1 (08:43):
Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. You
could put a little something on Minnesota. Now, look, here's
the thing that worries you. Messed about Minnesota. They have
long stretches where they don't score yep, and that's the problem.
They got a middle of the pack offense. But defensively,
all right, you want to make a big deal about Orlando,
that's great, but you can't give is at thirty five minutes,
I think this is the best defensive team in the game.
They're so big upfront and Anthony Edwards man, he's the

(09:06):
ultimate wildcard. Now there are games where he can lose
them games he's just so daring inefficient. But other times
he looks like the next Michael Jordan. It's a ridiculous
fun guy to watch. Everybody wants to kill Gobert. Everybody's
into the analytics and everybody watches thinks that Victor win
Bayama should be defensive Player of the Year, and I
think they have a great argument. But Gobart nonetheless is
a great defender. He's a definite, big time impact maker

(09:26):
with his ability to protect the rim and help side
and everything else. So Phoenix is a team that hasn't
stood up all year. Now. They did show a little
gumpshit the other night. They're down thirty five to four
first quarter to Clippers that did bounce back. They got
their revenge. If you will a couple of days later.
What a good guy? IM part of me A good
game a couple of days ago. But I haven't trusted
this Phoenix team all year. Beal shot. I think that
makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 4 (09:46):
All right, Milwaukee, we're under two to fifty now minus
two forty five against Indiana. We don't know about Giannis yet,
But what do you make of this series?

Speaker 1 (09:54):
I was shocked at the opening price, JVT. I actually
saw you put out the series price. I was shocked,
and I wasn't surprised he came out maybe an hour
later with the adjusted price, because I think a lot
of us were looking, oh wow, okay, so we got
to make sure we get in on this. I mean,
why are the Pacers that I know you don't want
to make too big a deal about the end season tournament,
but they beat them on the way there. Okay, they've

(10:16):
got maybe the best offense of the sport when it's
cooking down. The other thing is Milwaukee is seventeen and
nineteen since Doc Rivers took over. Have a good laugh
about that. By the way, seventeen, I mean, are you
kidding me? They fired a guy who's thirty and thirteen
and Doc Rivers comes in and he's beating his own
chest and he's seventeen to nineteen. That's a little tough
to take. But they're not playing well at all. They
can't defend out on the perimeter. I thought they'd be

(10:36):
marginally better in the off seasons, and they feel the
loss of true how they and their starting two guard
I don't even know that they are better. I think
ultimately they get by maybe a seven game series, but
there still was a ton of value in Indiana and
the series. I forget what it was. What was the
one and a half games? I forget what the price was.
Now is what I looked at right away.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
Let's see one and a half. I got Milwaukee.

Speaker 4 (10:58):
If me, Milwaukee might have let see even money, Mom,
Milwaukee might just one and a half even money. And
if you want to lay one and a half with
the Indiana Pacers, you get three to one.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
Yeah. The plus one and a half with the Pacers
was good too. All right, yep, that's another.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
One with that, All right, pal, good talking to you.
You can follow Tom on AX. He's at one Tom
Burne b y r Any catch him on Mad Dog
Sports Radio on series sexm as well. Thanks Tom, We
appreciate it anytime. Folk be good. There you go, he
joined us here in the progressive guest line. That's the
one that sticks out to me big time. Everything he
just said about the Bucks and the pacers. Well, recap

(11:32):
the bety action from the weekend, the huge prices, the
names to miss the cut, the upsets in the NBA
epl UFC. Next here follow the money for you a

(11:57):
winner last night? Wow winning that a rough one for
Kimoby winners. You're a loser. Molly Howard recaps the night
in sports betting and win some blu. How about some
of these big names that missed the cut at huge prices,
including Victor Hoblin three to one, Wyndham Clark plus two
eighty five. You know it's all great that I had

(12:18):
that Scheffler yukon parlay. Well, here are some of the
names that I also had that went into the had
some nice tickets on Hoblind no chance, Wyndham Clark, no good.
I had Justin Thomas. He missed the cut at plus
two forty. So I had those three guys in the
out rights and they had no chance to in this
tournament even make the weekend. Adrian Moran plus one sixty five,
Harmon plus two to twenty thanks for checking in, DJ

(12:42):
plus two to seventy five. Jordan Speith with all of
this master's history right plus three ninety.

Speaker 4 (12:50):
Maybe the rest was bothering more than we thought. I
had him to win this thing, not even not even
a chance.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
Justin Rose plus one fifty Sata g O plus one sixty,
Sam Burns plus two thirty five. They all missed massive names,
could not get the job done this weekend. How about
in the NBA? I watched that Spurs Nuggets game, specifically
the second half over the weekend, five to one to
win it out right over the Nuggets.

Speaker 4 (13:14):
They got it done. How important was that game? Can't
slap you get you circle. These teams are all right, cool,
we're gonna go in and win. Nope, not the case.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
Man.

Speaker 2 (13:20):
That was big.

Speaker 4 (13:21):
It was huge.

Speaker 2 (13:22):
That's whether or not the one seed. That's that game
right there, the reason why you could look at more
things throughout the season. Obviously, but losing that game as
a what were they fifteen point favorite in that range?

Speaker 4 (13:31):
Yeah, the thirteen to fourthe yet okay, yeah, to lose
that game outright the reason why today we're not talking
about Denver is the one in the West.

Speaker 2 (13:39):
Jazz plus eight point fifty against the Clippers. Hello, yep,
Pistons plus four to seventy five against the Mavericks, magic
seventy six ers over bet from two eleven to two
fifteen and a half in the Thunder ten point favorites
back to fourteen against the Bucks. All winners there. In
the NBA UFC Saturday Night, Alex Pererra Round one finished

(14:02):
plus five to fifty, Wiley to win by decision plus
two to fifty, Max Holloway to win by ko at
the gun. That was awesome seven to one. How about
that if you had to go to the scorecards and
you lost like that? Right, they decide to engage final
ten seconds even though Holloway had the white the fight one,
let's call big boy.

Speaker 4 (14:22):
It was the It was reminiscent of the garbrand suns.
I remember when he knocked himut right at the buzzer
back of like twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (14:28):
Yeah, yeah, that's right. Harrison to win by sub plus
two forty like Conno to win by ko Tko fourteen
to one in Figuredo to beat Garbrandt by this submission
was also four to one. That was the first fight
on the card on Saturday night.

Speaker 4 (14:45):
I want to go back real Pereira's fit. He's awesome,
he's incredible. That was fantastic celebration, just like, look at this,
look what you made me do. Yeah, it's so good.

Speaker 2 (14:54):
Great job by Luf Nacaro. By the way, on Friday
with the card and some he didn't not everyone was
a winner, but but he had a lot of them
on Friday with us. All Right, you can become a
Vsin subscriber a pro today. Go to vson dot com
slash subscribe to watch all the videos that we play
on the show. And during the segment I'm a big
dog guy. How about this? The poor dog is blind,

(15:17):
he's without both eyes. Wow, but he loves to play fetch.
So on the hardwood floors, the parents here throw the
tennis ball and the dog goes by sound to pick
it up and look at the tail wagging. He's like,
I hear it, where are you? I got you? And
he tracks it down and he brings it back and
he wants to play more. That's an incredible video.

Speaker 4 (15:39):
Wow, going through life like that, huh interesting?

Speaker 2 (15:43):
Yeah, I think I'd rather have you. I think.

Speaker 4 (15:46):
Look, it's kind of freaking me out a little bit,
but I think I'd rather have the eyeless dog than
the hairless cat.

Speaker 2 (15:50):
Say you that much. I don't like the hairless cats.
They're freaky. They are really creepy to me. This is
an amazing video. Man, isn't that a feel good story?

Speaker 1 (15:59):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (15:59):
Of course, warm up the Monday makes you want to
go out and rescue about three or four dogs this week.

Speaker 4 (16:03):
I might do it on the way home. You gotta
do that, but specifically blind ones.

Speaker 2 (16:07):
You have to. Yeah, when you see those, they don't
give me that one. I don't want the one with
ice that your your kids and your wife would really
be thankful and grateful overall. Kids bite life not so much, No,
not so much. To some of the beats over the weekend.

(16:27):
Justin Thomas to make the cut, he was even on fifteen.
He finished plus seven.

Speaker 4 (16:33):
That was incredible that watching that melt down was insane.

Speaker 2 (16:37):
The cut line was what six? You have a six
and then he pushed it down to seven.

Speaker 4 (16:40):
So guys like Matsiyama, I imagine if you had to
miss the cut on Motz, he survives because he did
because Thomas melts down that was that was wild watching
that on Friday.

Speaker 2 (16:49):
Yeah, to lose some This ties into the final day
of the regular season. Blake Murphy tweet Final Day fifteen games,
one hundred and eighteen players listed is out, five dogful,
forty seven are questionable. JBT. You are v Sin's very

(17:10):
own NBA senior betting and analysts. What did you make
of that?

Speaker 4 (17:14):
I mean, it's par for the course for the last day,
but at some point, like what my thing was is,
you don't need forty seven questionable.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
You know what you're doing right.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
Just list them as out, yeah, and let's get this
show on the road for exp like Darius Garland listed
as doubtful. Like those sort of things. You don't need
to play the games on the last day of the season.
We all know what you're trying to do.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
Just do it.

Speaker 4 (17:32):
List them is out and get on with it so
we can set these markets and do something with There's
no need to play these games.

Speaker 2 (17:37):
This nonsense.

Speaker 4 (17:38):
By the way, it won't end because we don't know
what's going on with any sonten Orkawhi Leonard.

Speaker 2 (17:42):
Sure, now, did you dial back your bets yesterday and
down the final week? Or two of the regular season.

Speaker 4 (17:48):
Yesterday, actually, I think and I wrote about this on
the website. I thought yesterday was a really good example
of spots where you go in and bet these teams
in game, especially these big favorites. There are multiple teams
yesterday that were massive favorites. They were tied after a
first order, trailed early. You just sit there and you
play these.

Speaker 2 (18:02):
Teams in game.

Speaker 4 (18:03):
You can get some good opportunities to come back in
and now a lot of there were quite a few
that ended up covering, but you can get much cheaper
numbers throughout the course of the game, especially early.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
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(18:31):
bets instantly. That's code Vsin only on DraftKings. The Crown
is Yours. Also Crystal Palace thirteen to one in the
prim Aston Villa nine to one in the EPL over
the weekend, some massive numbers coming.

Speaker 4 (18:47):
In, So I'm not I very much enjoy the sport
of soccer, but I do not follow the English Premier League.
I do know that my brother in law is a
massive Arsenal fan, and we were talking because he was
here last weekend about their chance to win the Premier League.

Speaker 2 (18:59):
He was super high last weekend, Yes, very high on it.
Where's he today?

Speaker 4 (19:02):
I have a text, so I've got a text of
I know where we're going here.

Speaker 2 (19:06):
That's insane. Oh, it's a crushing loss. Can't lose games
like that. No, that big of a favorite. I mean
when you're that high on the table and you can
win the whole thing like you.

Speaker 4 (19:15):
Know, draw, I guess you understand it to lose too
to nil and you can't do that.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
Oh were you close to saying something else? Nothing easy,
does it?

Speaker 1 (19:23):
Pal?

Speaker 4 (19:24):
I'm gonna use nil for other nil means nothing, right? Yes, yes,
I don't.

Speaker 2 (19:29):
We should use nada more often? Yeah? What do you
think about that? Well, especially for Mexican leage soccer, probably right? Yeah?
Or then how about just to zip to zilch? Well,
like ziltch. I think that's a pretty good word. Bring
it the hockey, that's what we should do. Okay, it's
zilt zilch zilch. After two Easier said than done. Is
there a Canadian term for zero? Your best bet on

(19:50):
the board right now in the NBA would be what.

Speaker 4 (19:53):
At this point, right now, if I'm trusting that it's
the If I'm trusting cowhi Lander's healthy, would be Clippers
to win the series.

Speaker 2 (20:00):
What's the best bet? Think?

Speaker 4 (20:01):
I think that you don't like them that much that
that it's a pick. They're at home. Home court should
be worth more. And this is a team that has
had success. By the way, we didn't mention this. We
were talking about this with Tom Byrne, you know, really quietly.
Over his last seven games, Paul George is averaging twenty
five and five on fifty percent shooting from the floor,
nearly fifty percent shooting from three.

Speaker 2 (20:20):
He is very good. And they, by the way, they
prove this when all those guys were out, they're still deep.

Speaker 4 (20:25):
Yes, and they go so they come back from that
with that big successful road trip and they were like whatever,
thirty one and six over the course of you know,
thirty seven games hot Edge.

Speaker 2 (20:33):
It was awesome. It was they were great, and then they.

Speaker 4 (20:35):
Play five hundred basketball over the course of a month
and everybody's ready to you know, out, we're done, get
him out of here.

Speaker 2 (20:41):
Mitch down the stretch. They were awesome.

Speaker 4 (20:42):
Yeah, they sat some games because they didn't have anything
to play for, especially after they beat the Suns to
clinch the Pacific and essentially salt away the four seed.
They had at one point turned everything around, had won
nine out of twelve and that was with Kawhi missing time.
The Kawhi's going to come back, and that's the big one.

Speaker 2 (20:56):
You know.

Speaker 4 (20:57):
You hear a lot about how the Clippers don't do
anything in the postseason. I don't know about you. And
again I fully admit my bias here. I watched Kawhi
Leonard smoke this Sun's that Sun's team in the first
game last year. They were winning that series before he
got hurt. They were going to win that series.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
I don't disagree.

Speaker 4 (21:11):
And so like, if you get a healthy Kawhi Leonard,
who has performed every time that they have been in
the postseason, this is a Clippers team that, by the way,
they made it to the postseason the last thing, you
know before last time, you know what they did. They
made it to the Western Conference Finals. It's not like
this team has had absolutely no success whatsoever. You give
them the depth, the ability to defend with Kawhi Leonard

(21:32):
at the point of attack. It's just from a point
a price perspective, this should be a price that, if
Kawhi Leonard's fully healthy and ready to go, should be higher.

Speaker 2 (21:39):
It just it feels like such a massive if. Oh yeah,
give me a percentage that he's healthy and good to
go for the entire series. I don't know if I
can go higher than fifty percent for this series.

Speaker 4 (21:50):
They're going to say postseason for the series the series,
I would give it a little bit higher only because
he did play the most games he's played in the
regular season in quite a long, long time, many years, right,
and he's it seems like he's kind of pushed through
this this we'll call it this you know this mountain
or guest this this year that he's maybe had. So
I'd make it a little bit higher for this series.
If you don't have any if you have any trust

(22:11):
for the postseason, totally understanding.

Speaker 2 (22:14):
How about for the playing games? Man? I want to
say Atlanta, but I can't. I'll say Atlanta for now.

Speaker 4 (22:23):
I think that they their talent level is better Trey
Young's back, they can rebound.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
I feel like they should be able to do that.
We saw him in the play in last year to
do it all right? Up next, who are we looking
at betting now for the PGA Championship And more importantly,
maybe who are we drawing a line through? This is

(22:52):
follow the money on said.

Speaker 5 (22:57):
The exclusive betting splits are open to the public, folks,
check it out now before we close off the access.
That's right, We've had these open down with two weeks
of free betting splits access yep, get started, No pro
sub required. If we've got a full slate of baseball today,
so use it as part of the handicapping process if
you like Beson dot com slash splitz and the best part,
it's for future events as well, so you can see
what's going on with the NBA, play in games and

(23:18):
of course future events as the National Hockey League comes.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
At the end of the season. Vison dot com saslitz
all right. Scotty Scheffler takes home a second Masters in
three years. He was the shortest shot on the board.
He ran away with it down the stretch yesterday. I
thought the action throughout the weekend overall, including Saturday, was
pretty much as good as it gets. And it still
was very good yesterday. And tell approximately what the back

(23:42):
nine for Scotty and some of the other guys who
were near him, Homa his unfortunate shot on twelve which
took him out of the running. If a bear doesn't
put that into the drink, yep, is he live to
win that thing? I think for live? For sure? Does he?
Who knows because Scotti Scheffler's a cycle paths or.

Speaker 4 (23:58):
Maybe just continues to grind through it, but yeah, absolutely live.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
That was so that was so wild yesterday. That kid's
twenty three years old. Yeah, and he was what was he?
I think short? Twenty to one neighborhood anyway to win
it before the event started on Thursday and a.

Speaker 4 (24:15):
Lot of people were all over it to all right, Yeah,
debutante two for lou the big word, I think it
is the proper pronunciation.

Speaker 1 (24:22):
Now.

Speaker 4 (24:23):
That was wildly impressive, and I thought so I was
reading The Athletic had a great piece up about like
how the guys looked and how they were handling things
walking out for the final round, Like there was a
great note where Klin Morikawa was just like grinding his
teeth and like looked pretty like tight. But like with Oberg,
he seemed pretty light and just was kind of like, hey,
you know, like moment's not too big, Saint. They with
Scheffler and those sort of things with golf seemed pretty important.

(24:44):
I thought, you carry yourself.

Speaker 2 (24:45):
I felt like the body language part of it the
whole deal for him. He was laughing, had a smile
on his face the whole time. He was loose. I mean,
even when they caught that patron accidentally knocking the protein
bar out of his hand, he like just giggled in
moved on. Okay, not a big deal whatever.

Speaker 4 (25:02):
I would curse him, curse him out.

Speaker 2 (25:05):
He is, Uh, of course you would, that's you really,
I'd be regular Patrick Reed.

Speaker 4 (25:09):
Is it has Greed who was screaming at the guy
for the change in his pocket? Or was that Justin Turner?
Did you'd hear the loose change in one of the
patron's pockets a few years back?

Speaker 2 (25:17):
I don't remember that. That's backswing. What you make is
Zach Johnson, by the way side note, did you see
that on the cameras? Clearly you could, I mean clear
as day. He said, bleep you And then he came
out and with like this condescending smile on his face,
like within a quad bogie the hole or something like that,
and they were cheering, you know, whatever the speculation was
because of what happened at the Ryder Cup. And then

(25:39):
he's talking about it after it and he's like, I
can't even hear what's going on. If anything, I was
going to say it to myself for playing so poorly
on that hole. I just say you did it, of course, right?
You got mad? Who cares? We all do? Delf needs
more villains, yes, I mean Scotti Scheffler, he's amazing.

Speaker 4 (25:54):
He's also a drip, right he's well yeah, I mean
we need actually, he would fit perfectly. We need the
devil to God, right, you know, god fearing man.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Whatever.

Speaker 4 (26:02):
If one of these guys would become really good, like
if ludvig Oberg becomes like a Satanist or something, and
get those two guys going head to head every single tournament.

Speaker 2 (26:08):
Ye's albarry. He is now eighteen to one to win
the PGA. That is kind of crazy. He looked the
part though, and I think people are going to make
the case for him to win it next month. Yep,
he's that price right now at he's down? Is that
right now? Fourteen to one at DK? Mclroy has Actually
that's not updated on mclroy. I'm looking right now at

(26:29):
the website. Here's the thing, right mclroy and people were
making the case again to win the Masters at that price.
I personally don't get it. He's down to nine to
one as we speak at DK to win the PG
What are we doing here? What do we need to see?
How much more evidence do we need to see that
betting this guy is burning money. He doesn't win enough

(26:53):
period to be nine, ten, eleven to one win the field?
Is this good?

Speaker 1 (26:59):
What?

Speaker 2 (26:59):
I bet Roy mcroroight to win the PGA at a
much better number? Sure I would at nine to one,
there was absolutely no chance. I'm betting him to win
the PGA Championship and I ended hot. He was won
over on Sunday.

Speaker 4 (27:12):
And that's what I'm curious about, which is, you know,
for a lot of these guys when they're at the
peak of their powers and then eventually drift, we saw
that drift is what you want to call it, right,
where like, for example, so Jordan'speith, Right, he was awesome,
He's winning Major, he looks incredible, so the peak of
his powers. But when the results stopped coming, then you
start to see him drift down the board. Then you
know you have a little bit of a resurgence. So
now you're kind of finding yourself in that like twenty

(27:33):
to one range, depending on what.

Speaker 2 (27:34):
The tournament is whatever. At one point you could have
gotten speed.

Speaker 4 (27:36):
Regularly at like the fifty to one range when he
was not playing very well for Rory, like it's not
really happening, and yet he continues to be there at
the top empower rated as one of the best golfers
in the world. I guess I get it to an extent,
But in terms of betting odds, to consistently see them
this short, I am surprised. We have yet to see
this drift, Like it's got to happen at some point,

(27:57):
not touching him, no way, no howard the current number.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
Another example was Victor Howland, who I bet last year
when he was setting the world on fire at twenty
four to one. He got as low as fourteen to
one before the Masters. This is months ago, and then
he wasn't playing great golf at all this season and
he ballooned up. He was forty seven to one here
at Circa. They're basically telling you we can't take a

(28:20):
bet to save our lives on this guy. And then
he's four under on the front nine on Thursday and
just the cliff was not you couldn't see him hit
the ground because the cliff was so high for that
guy that he fell off of. So not going to
touch him at all for the PG. Let me throw
some names out there to maybe take a peek at,
based on, you know, being a little bit longer on

(28:41):
the board than Scotti, Scheffler plus four fifteen. Wanting nothing
to do with Rory McElroy. Yeah, I got one for
you too. Okay, do you want Willie Zi finished top ten?

Speaker 4 (28:49):
I will say because a lot of it was, Hey,
you know, similar back procedure to Tiger.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
How healthy is he going to be?

Speaker 1 (28:55):
Looked?

Speaker 2 (28:55):
Pretty good?

Speaker 4 (28:56):
I'd say, like, I think that's you're getting some confidence
in the fact that he, ell, he's made it through
without you know anything, no massive round that kind of
scared you off' say absolutely.

Speaker 2 (29:05):
Twenty five to one. I didn't hear anybody make a
case for Max Homa before the Masters played exceedingly well.
He's thirty to one the PGA. Interest, Yes, I would
say so. Again, no big round that kind of got
him out of it. He was awesome at the beginning
of the tournament. I would say absolutely, he was rock
solid the entire time until number twelve. Yep, unfortunately for him.

(29:28):
How about how about Cam Smith thirty to one at DK.

Speaker 4 (29:32):
That guy was steady, never really like threatened to win
the whole thing, but you were never you were never
losing out on that like he was always going to be.
He was at making the cut, He's going to push
for that top ten, top five, was awesome. I think
I'm going to bet him thirty to one for the PGA.
I mean, I bet this guy several times. I love
his game, he's got you know, he's a proven winner in.

Speaker 2 (29:57):
Big events. So I think cam Smith will be one
of the first guys that I do bet. Matt Fitzpatrick
in the same neighborhood. Yeah, I wouldn't say why not
again another winner here yep, who was overall pretty good
at the Masters. Let me give you one other guy
and he is currently I want to get the correct
number here. He played really well this weekend. You look

(30:20):
at the leader board, he finished what top tied for four,
I believe. How about Tommy Fleetwood forty five to one.
That was the guy you're gonna throw out me. So
he's kind of so.

Speaker 4 (30:29):
For a long time, Hideki Mansiamo was my white whale,
but then I got him at the Masters.

Speaker 2 (30:33):
Oh you had him, Yes, that was awesome.

Speaker 4 (30:36):
Fleetwood has been my guy since the PGA, you know,
excuse me, since the US opened at Shinnecock. Remember when
he said I think he set a course record or something.
He was absolutely incredible, ended up losing the Brooks kept
guy had him in that tournament. When he plays, he is,
he's awesome, He's great, and he he's out a sixty
nine there on Sunday, was really steady throughout the entire tournament.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
The problem with Fleetwood is he's got those.

Speaker 4 (30:57):
He always puts in like that Saturday where he kind
of blows up a little bit, you know, but the
game is solid and like when you look at the
statistics from the Masters too, I mean across the board
he gave he totally is gonna be Strokes gained every
single category was positive. I think his game is awesome.
I would definitely include him.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
If you had placement markets available right now for the
PGA Top ten, top twenty, Yes, today, you'd be betting
Tommy Fleetwood.

Speaker 1 (31:21):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (31:22):
I think that's fair.

Speaker 4 (31:23):
He's one of the normal inclusions when it comes to
like some of the with these majors, because he's got
I got to hit him at some point.

Speaker 2 (31:29):
Right, So we have a month basically before the PGA
goes off. Do you think forty five to one is
going to be there in three weeks? I think I,
like Tommy Fleetwood or any of these guys that we
talked about, will they will they come down? Will they
drift back up? Are we getting bad numbers right now
in some of these guys?

Speaker 4 (31:43):
I mean, I think with Fleetwood it's going to be pretty.
He's not like, he's not a name that's going to
garner I think support in the month Fleeting, I.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
Don't think so. But I also don't think he's going
to drift to like seventy correct.

Speaker 4 (31:53):
I think that's one where you can sit wait and
see and like wait, like you know, Cirk obviously with
their low hold probably get a pretty good number on him.

Speaker 2 (31:59):
Yeah, I think Can Smith, another guy that I brought
up here, will be in that same category. He's not
drifting out to like thirty five forty forty five to one,
I don't think. But also does he get really much
lower than thirty to one? Yep? Do we do?

Speaker 4 (32:10):
By the way, do you express the same disappointment? I
know he finished, I think eighth. Do we express the
same disappointment for Xanderschoffwe Well, I don't have high expectations
for him anyway. He seems Ricky Fowler ess where It's
like every time there's the expectation that he should be
live here and then just kind of meanders his way
to like a top ten finished, but never really threatens
to win the thing.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
Actually, you know what for the PGA, he's twenty. Yeah,
he was back down to I think fourteen to one
to win the Masters. I mean, to his credit, he
played well. It looked like he was out of it
by noon on Thursday, but he came back and he was.
You know, I'm not going to say he was in
it because really who was in it other than Obert
and also Homa really and Morikawa until yesterday in the

(32:54):
back nine, but overall played quite well. Possibility there at
twenty to one, yeah or better.

Speaker 4 (33:05):
I just feel like there's there's always the expectation that
he should be a lot better than he generally is.

Speaker 2 (33:09):
But top ten, top twenty like everybody else. So how
many times you're going to bet this guy before you learn?

Speaker 1 (33:14):
Right?

Speaker 2 (33:14):
I've been saying there for five years probably That's.

Speaker 4 (33:16):
Why I bring up the Ricky Fowler comp humans bet
Fowler like every tournament for like two years straight.

Speaker 2 (33:21):
Yeap never got there. Up next, well, recaps on the
bets we had from the weekend and tell you what
we're betting today and moving forward with in pocket plays
on Follow the Money, It's vsin the Sports Betting.

Speaker 3 (33:31):
Network, the guy has an algorithm to determine the winner

(33:57):
of any given college basketball games.

Speaker 5 (34:00):
Gives you ten thousand to one on anything you take it,
take it.

Speaker 4 (34:05):
I'll bet you twenty bucks.

Speaker 2 (34:06):
I can get you gambled before the end of the day.

Speaker 1 (34:08):
No way.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
I'll give you three to one on none, went five.

Speaker 1 (34:10):
To one, no end of one here.

Speaker 2 (34:14):
Going back to action on Friday, I had the Wizards
money line against the Bulls minus one twelve. That blew.
I think this highes minus one thirty four point lead
late in the game. I don't think they scored again.
Lost alright, that was a loser. That was a fun
one to watch unfold right in front of you. I
had a I thought Nolan Jones for the Colorado Rockies

(34:35):
was due for a breakout, and he did big time
over the weekend. I bet the wrong market though, I
bet stolen base plus three sixty. Turns out other spots
had his highest five eighty. When we were done with
the show on Friday, people pointed out, no stolen bases.
He did go. I think he had a couple of
home runs this weekend, so everything else got there. But
that was a loser. So Friday was no good. Willie
z going top twenty twice twice though, was good. Bet

(34:57):
him at plus one twenty. That was the only That
number was all over the place. Yeah, the highest I
could find anywhere was plus one twenty. Everywhere else is
like pick them or I should say even money, or
even like minus money. Then circle opened up plus one
seventy five. I'm like, hello, so don't be more up
more on it. Bet them both. They got there. Here's

(35:19):
what I'm betting today. Gotta do it, alright. The best
number available right now you can find is plus one
ninety five. I have to take the Pacers, and I
have a funny feeling you called this yesterday via text message.
You think the number is going to keep coming down.
People are going to be making the case and betting
the Pacers.

Speaker 4 (35:36):
I mean, even if, even with healthy Giannis, the team's
not at a point where the market's going to support them,
So you're going to continue to get this driven down.
Giannis comes to say, if it's announced he's healthy, might
get a little bit more bumped back in the bucks favor.
But I think you're the right in just jumping on
this thing right now. All right, so there is money
coming in this morning. When I told Luke about this,
it was even money. We'll go minus one oh three
at this point.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
Yankees today against the Blue Jays, and the Yankees are
taking a little bit of money here during the show.
But I'm going to go with Luis he and the
Yanks against the Toronto Blue Jays today and Chris Bassett
I laid minus one oh three in the game.

Speaker 4 (36:11):
Yeah, all right, me, let's do it. Only one play
for today. We saw the market really move in favor
of Tampa Bay. Got to his high as a buck seventy.
There's some buyback happening here. I'll buy in on Sandoval
against the Rays. Underlying numbers aren't terrible for him now
on the surface six p fifty seven Elra looks pretty bad,
but big reason why I've been getting unlucky on balls
and play. Has had some command issues, but he's striking

(36:32):
out guys at a way higher rate two seventy six.
Fielding independent would tell you he's probably due for a
little bit of positive regression now. The other end, fline
actually hasn't been good. Nearly forty five percent of his
batted balls hard hit. Underlying numbers aren't really good. So
give me the Angels first five plus the half run
at even money here against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
All right, very good. By the way. The bet that
I made in the Yank is not a big bet,
just to have some action today at that number for
the baseball card. For a limited time, we're offing two
weeks of our exclude betting splits for free when you
sign up at vsin dot com slash splits. The Vson
betting Splits pages updated with draftings odds every five minutes,
so you can see changes in all of the action.

(37:12):
Find out where the public is betting based on the
number of tickets, and where the money doesn't match the
public opinion. You can check out not just today's action,
but future events as well. Take advantage of this limited
time offer. Visit vsin dot com slash splits now to
claim your free two week access to v sin's betting splits.
Don't strike out at potential winnings. Visit vsin dot com
slash splits and start making smarter baseball bets today to

(37:36):
other games on the board JBT. Maybe oh, we kick
this around a little earlier in the program. You think
there's some negative regression coming for the Pirates money on
the Mets today They opened up about minus one thirteen.
There's highs about a minus a buck and a quarter
at this point, Pirates have eleven wins so far. It's
Martin Perez going he's plus one thirteen in that neighborhood.

(37:59):
And how about the angle with the podres plane late well, yep,
last night Sunday Night Baseball getting the win over the Dodgers.
Nice job by the Podrays in that series by the
way and now they have to fly to the Midwest
and take on a pretty good Brewers team, and the
Podrays are laying in number here you can find Milwaukee

(38:21):
plus one eleven in that range. Yep. I don't love
the pitcher going today for the Brewers, but their offense
has been damn impressive to begin the season so far. Yeah,
that's a that's for me.

Speaker 4 (38:32):
Like, I know, a lot of baseball handicappers are talking
about this with like Adam Burke, who does all of
our baseball riding over with the website at Visa dot com,
And before the season we were going over like situation
spots and whatnot for the schedule and in baseball, right's
pretty leisurely, like not the sport itself, don't take a sense,
but like you know, you're not really traveling a ton
when you go somewhere, you're staying multiple days all that,
but the one angle is long travel after a Sunday

(38:54):
night baseball game and that's generally a pretty negative spot.
So now to go on the road. You mentioned the Brewers,
the lineup that has been crushing, it's been absolutely fantastic.
Musgrove is going to get the start six eighty seventy
RA four seventy fielding independent for him over four starts,
eighteen and a third. Command has been pretty poor so far.
I like it makes a lot of sense that you
would try to go against Milwaukee or be against Po

(39:15):
San Diego here and go with Milwaukee in this spot.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
The numbers don't sound great with musk Grove. He's good
enough though to pick it up. Yes, and that's all
you need. Right, and one of these spots is well
tough travel here spot, you're only as good as your
next day's picture. He could go out there. He's got
the stuff anyway to go out there, like six strong,
two hits, no runs, and they have a two nothing
lead as they go over to the bullpen.

Speaker 4 (39:36):
Right, and Ross's numbers look pretty good. Joe Ross's gonna
get a start from Milwaukee League. He hasn't been terrible here.
So it just put it, frankly to the way the
Brewers are playing. You know, I get how good Muscove
has been, so you're going to power rate him. You're
gonna generally lean toward history. I think they deserve a
little bit more respect to your playing at home. He
got a team in a bad spot, fair enough, By
the way, can I really quick you mentioned that metsa

(39:57):
in the Pirates. The Mets are like the antithesis of
the Pirate. They've gotten so unlucky with like balls and play,
but they're walking at a pretty decent rate. They're not
striking out. You're kind of waiting for that team to
erupt here too. So it might be two of these
ships passing in the night and the Mets maybe wake
up a little bit, all right, So.

Speaker 2 (40:12):
You're seeing the betty market kind of agree with that. That, yeah, right,
with money coming in the metscent. We talked some NFL
Draft today. The event is already a week from this Thursday,
and I asked JVT earlier this is I don't know.
This is kind of telling to me. The draft position
props on Bo Nix and Michael Pennix. They're each thirty

(40:33):
two and a half, and yet they're favored to go
over that number. Yet four and a half quarterbacks in
the first round remains as high as minus three dollars
right at DraftKings. Now it's come down big. It's minus
two dollars in the take back on the no or
the under four and a half is plus one sixty
you bought at plus two sixty here in Las Vegas
at the peak right on the under there. And there's

(40:54):
a new k mockout today, by the way, Sam Monson
put it out from Profooball Focus where he has McCarthy
going number two overall.

Speaker 4 (41:01):
Uh, and then four quarterbacks going in the first round.
Because that's the other part where I think a lot
of people think, like, let's say it's true. I don't
think it is, but let's say's true that four quarterbacks
going the first four picks. It doesn't mean that the
other two guys have to go in the first round.
It doesn't mean anything. But I think a lot of
people correlate that to, well, there's gonna be this run
on quarterbacks. People are going to try to snatch them up,
not not necessarily, even if they do go one, two, three, four,

(41:23):
which I don't think is going to be the case.

Speaker 2 (41:24):
But I just to me, when I've watched Bonnix play
the entire time, and the most popular landing spot in
mock drafts has been number twelve overall to the Broncos
massive reach yep taking the kid at that point.

Speaker 4 (41:38):
I mean, you hit on it. It's just you have
the betty market. If you believe the betty market is
sow what accurate? Right, one thing is telling you more
than likely we're going to go over this number of
quarterbacks in the first round. But then the other two
markets are saying the most probable outcome is this guy
goes and this goes to the second round beyond. Same
thing with the other So unless you feel like Spencer

(41:59):
Rattler or Sam Hartman's going to leap his way into
the first.

Speaker 2 (42:02):
Round, it's just not going to be the case.

Speaker 4 (42:04):
So something we're being told, Hey, there's value somewhere here,
you just have to decide to right where it is.
And I think it's on under four and a half.

Speaker 2 (42:12):
I came around when you told me about the number
getting that high last week, and I bet it based
on your opinion. So if it's a loser, I'm gonna
come back.

Speaker 4 (42:21):
So it's funny you say that because I've also infected Tim,
so like I'm getting all these people converted to like
the under four. He's like all in on it too,
and he made the bet.

Speaker 2 (42:32):
So what's going to happen then when the first four
picks next Thursday are all quarterbacks and we have a
three and a half hour sweat. Now, please, for the
love of God, don't do not allow another quarterback to
go in the first round.

Speaker 4 (42:42):
I'll bet you that the first two quarterback, the first
two picks for quarterbacks, and then another one doesn't go
until after five.

Speaker 2 (42:50):
What do the Patriots do at three? I think they.

Speaker 4 (42:53):
I think you either draft Marvin Harrison Junior or you
trade out. How about this, I saw one one person
pointing this out to me.

Speaker 2 (43:00):
There is a mock draft out there where Joe Alt
goes third overall. Sure, absolutely, not a single human being
has talked about that. Right if they don't like love
these quarterbacks available, and they just decide we're taking the
best player available that we need right now, and we
think it's going to be Joe Alt, that would imagine
the shock Thursday night for the draft. If that happens.

(43:23):
That would be similar to Joey Bosa to the Chargers
years ago. Nobody had that.

Speaker 4 (43:27):
Yep, Well, I think too when you look at it again,
because I like conversation around draft philosophy, the Patriots are
such a good example. Yes, you could draft a quarterback,
but your roster is so barren when it comes to
talent that you need to do everything possible to make
it as a soft landing spot for when you eventually.

Speaker 2 (43:42):
Do get that quarterback. And how you do that.

Speaker 4 (43:44):
You draft offensive lineman, you draft a skill position, You
try to make the roster better, you build up around it.
Look what they did to Justin Fields in Chicago. They
stripped the roster down to the studs. They draft him
and they're like, now this kid suckster can't play.

Speaker 2 (43:58):
Didn't give anything right, had nothing. Now Kaylee Williams is
going to go there with a pretty decent team and
he'll you know, he could shine.

Speaker 4 (44:04):
It's like giving you It's like getting rid of Luke
as your producer and giving you me. And they're being like,
do the show sucks? Mitch is terrible at his job.
It's like, no, that's not how this works. That'll do
it for us. Great job, JBT, he's filling in this week.
Paulie's on vacation. Great job for everybody behind the glass
as well. Just this week, stay tuned.

Speaker 2 (44:22):
A numbers game is next with Gil Alexander. You can
listen at vsin dot com. Good luck betting tonight,