April 17, 2024 • 44 mins
In hour two of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and JVT recap the Masters with Jeff Sealey, preview Wednesday's MLB slate, and Paul Charchian joins the show to preview the NFL draft.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Money.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's why I always say you always follow it. Yeah,
this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly
Howard on Vson.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in. It is Follow the Money here on Vson,
the Sports Betty Network. The show is brought to you
by Draft Kings Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel.
He is in for Paul Howard who is vacationing this week.
And we are alive as always in downtown Las Vegas
from the Circa Resort and Casino. Starting this hour off
with a little golf, talking about the heritage this week,
handicapping it as our buddy Indy. Jeff Seeley joins the program.
(00:32):
He's on x at Cutmaker Jeff. The podcast is the
Cutmaker Podcast and he's on the progressive guest line Jeff,
good morning. But we do call you Indy Jeff for
a reason obviously from that great city. What is it
like living in and around that area?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Now?
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I mean two and a half million people watched the
Draft the other night with Caitlin Clark going number one overall.
You told us, I think it was two weeks ago
that the last time that you could watch like get
your kids and your wife to sit down and watch
a game. Was when like, the Pacers are in the
playoffs and the culture in the playoffs, but they have
the fever with Clark here.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Now, yeah, and it's as you said, it's an ironic name, right.
I mean, you've got the Indiana fever and everybody's got
Caitlin Clark fever. And it's I mean, obviously jerseys have
sold out tickets, have you know? Tickets are insane price
wise now And again, you guys thought in Vegas, right,
they moved the second game of the season is there.
They moved to t Mobile Arena, double the capacity. So
(01:28):
I mean, I I think, guys, honestly, I think we're
in like Tiger Woods category now where it's everybody turns
on the TV and and and frankly, I think I
think it's great for sports, right. I mean, I see
Jeff Sherman now tweeting w NBA adds more more than
I've ever seen. And frankly, you can, even from pure
betting perspective, I think it's really good for the betting markets, right, Like,
(01:51):
how many times did you bet women's college basketball before
this year, Mitch?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Not very often? A handful of times, right, This year A.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Yeah, absolutely, and so I think it's just it's better
better universally for for you know, whether you know, for
women in general, but also just if you're a better
and like to best sports. I think it's greatious to
have that one more market to bet. And uh, it's
gonna be really entertaining because I saw Sherman put up
the MVP adds for for WNBA, Like, I promise you
(02:21):
you've never met at w NBA MVP market before, right, So,
so so here we are and and again it's there's
one person to thank for that. It's Kaitlyn Clark. So
it's I think it's it's obviously very exciting to have
her in India. I liketually live in a suburb called Noblesville,
and there's a full on like movement here to try
to get her to move to our town. And so
(02:44):
because because she she she likes to play golf, and
there are there are twenty four golf courses in my county.
So we're like full on, full on movement trying to
get Caitlyn Clark to move to my town. The one
rub we have against this is like we're forty five
minutes from on town. I highly doubt she's going to
want to drive forty five minutes to work every day.
(03:05):
I'm sure we could get her a car service or
something and figure it out. But yeah, I mean it's nuts,
and certainly the town has I mean, I can't And
the only thing I could like in it too is
maybe Peyton Manning. Right like it is, it's crazy. The
excitement about WNPA something honestly never thought I'd say, so
(03:27):
pretty special time to be here.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
You're right, I mean the betting handle at every sports
book across the country for the WNBA this year is
going to skyrocket, There's no doubt in my mind because
of her, so Ronda, the heritage. I have a couple
of questions here before we get your best bets. Why
are we doing an elevated event the week after the Masters?
And why is Scottie Scheffler playing in this thing?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
So those are both are great questions, and honestly, guys,
like I mean, I think a lot of people sort
of I mean myself include I think a lot of people,
a lot of players even will have sort of a
Master's hangover. Right, it was a very anticlimactic Masters. I mean,
you could have you could have turned it off at
nine holes in with Scotty just kind of walked away
with it. And and those guys you talk about grueling,
(04:08):
I mean you guys watch the Masters. That had to
be with the most grueling mentally grueling four rounds of
golf ever to survive that thing get through. Why do
you want to play this week? And Scotty, he said
during the Masters if his if his wife's having a kid,
he's gonna leave, like number one. I don't love ever
betting anybody at that short of odds, but this week,
(04:30):
especially with that on the line. Uh, you know, the
kid getting ready to come out anytime, there's there's no
way I'm betting Scotty this week. That said, if the
kid cit equation was out of play, you almost you
almost have to bet him now because we're in tiger Woods,
you know, we're tiger Woods are area now where he's
just he is so far and away the best player.
I mean, a bunch of guys, a bunch of really
(04:50):
good golfers tried to run him down last week. Obet
is going to be special. I've said a million times,
but Scotty is just head and shoulders above everyone right now.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Yep, totally.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
So when you look at this, then, like, how do
you attack this this tournament? Are you avoiding kind of
the guys at the top. Are we looking a little
bit more middle of the pack. How do you attack
this from the guys you're going to circle?
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Yeah, JBT, I think this is a really good week
to attack the middle of the board. I think we
can find some quality players at really good prices. You know,
I've got four guys highlighted here that I are very
very live to win. That you can get it forty
five fifty or so to one. And you know, we
talked about this with golf a lot, right, the value
(05:31):
you can get, the pricing golf relative to other sports. Right,
So I know you your big NBA guys JBT. Right,
if we look at this and say, okay, we take
a team, let's just take the calves, Right, the odds
of the Calves win the NBA Championship are not very high,
probably fifty five to sixty to one. I think that
(05:53):
the guys we're going to lift at forty five to
sixty to one are a way better value than the
calves with the ANBA Championship, just because it's one tournament
there's no cut. I think it's a really good, good
week to play these guys, and we'll start with Corey Connors.
Corey Connors is forty five to one, especially as a
top ten or top twenty play you can find in
top ten plus three to fifty or better. Elite iron
(06:16):
player gains off the tee iron play is fantastic. Three
straight finishes inside the top forty combined with three of
his last four finishes inside the top twenty one here
gain more than three shots with his irons in six
straight events. So again, irons are very dialed in. If
somehow he can gain with the putter like he did
at the Masters, I think he's very very alive here.
(06:38):
Forty five to one outright top ten a plus three
fifty are better. Love that market. Another guy who always
plays well here Brian Harmon fifty to one. Gained with
the putter and three of his last four events gained
average with three shots total prior to the Masters, which
was a total disaster for him. Do you guys watch that?
That was a disaster again. If he's ever gonna bounce back,
(07:01):
no cut event, it's it's close to you know, close
to his home in Georgia, right, I look for a
bounce back here where he finished, you know, inside the
top thirteen and two of his last three trips. Gonna
keep in the fairway, gonna make putts. Brian Harmon's very
live here. I like him top ten at plus three
fifty or better, top twenty at plus one fifty. And then, yeah, guys,
(07:23):
I look at two other guys, JT posting, Mitch. We
played him a lot this year. He's been struggling a
little bit lately, but I think now is a great
week to go back to JT post in fifty five
to one, top ten, top twenty especially. Yeah, you know
he's he's missed two of his last three cuts here,
but he has three top ten finishes here. Form isn't great,
(07:44):
but that's why we're getting a really good price on
JT posting here. Short iron approach very good lately. We
know his putter can get hot. Earlier this year he
gained an average with three strokes putting across seven events
plus well here, I like JT posting. And then last
Chris Kirk fifty five to one, seventh here in twenty
twenty one, comes in with really good form, having finished
(08:06):
twenty sixth of the players, sixteenth of the masters games
around the Green gains on approach pluts. Well, here another
guy I think is a great top twenty bet at
plus one fifty you're better, and sprinkles him out right
in top tens as well.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Okay, yeah, that's very important that you point that out.
It's follow the money here on vsin D Sports Betty Network,
our guest Jeff Seely. He's on x at Cupmaker Jeff
and his podcast is called The Cutmaker Podcast. So you're
running down guys all rights, but you're also mentioning, look,
I'm also going to grab top ten top twenties as well,
so you get involved with the placements. Those are kind
of like the core four. This week, you do have
(08:40):
one bomb in the eighty to one range. Who is it?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Yeah, guys, I like Keigan Bradley eighty to one. I
think he's a very good iron player if he can
gain with this potter the way he did it Augussa,
I think he's a really good play. And then three
hundred to one. You know, we have to sprinkle in
some Eric Barnes here, but you can find him on
DraftKings top forty plus one twenty five. I love that vet.
This week, Barnes in Texas was on the sixteenth hole
(09:09):
and his caddy had to leave for his wife had
emergency surgery, so he had to play the second round,
the last two holes in the second round with a
random caddy that he just was just assigned, which obviously
is not optimal. He's got his caddy back, caddy's wife's
doing okay, and so now I expect to bounce back
from him. Top forty this week plus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Eric Barnes is a great play, okay, So everything's good
there with him. So top forty A look at No.
Patrick Cantley, Huh. I've heard a lot of people make
the case for him this week.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Nobody loves Patrick Cantlan more than Jeff Sherman, so Sherman
is obviously going to play him. But I know, I mean,
eighteen to one, I think he's not a bad play.
I could certainly make a case for it, but I think, guys,
I'm going to save my money for my top ten,
top twenty guys in that mid market range and just
I'm just gonna pass on Cantlin.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Okay, fair enough. Jeff is one of many guys. So
I've heard the case. And lastly, did you rush peer
apps to fire on Rory McElroy at nine to one
to win the PGA?
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I did, No, I did not. I did not. I mean, boy,
you think about I mean, you talk about a guy
who's just kind of lost in the majors, right, I did.
I'll tell you what I did. But I did bet
him on Sunday at the Masters to have low round
because how it's so Rory you like to shoot, to
shoot like the fifty the last day and finish top
top five, back door top five. It didn't happen. He's
(10:34):
not gonna win the DGA, He's not gonna he's never
gonna win a major again.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Oh, I mean he's never.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
I would take the no on never winning a major again.
I think that. I think Jordan Steeth is way more
live to win a major than Rory McElroy is. I
mean the guy is he is. There's just no Wayyef.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
He doesn't win nearly enough to be priced around nine,
ten to eleven to one in all these tournaments. There's
no chance I can bet that number.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Miss. Tell me the last time Roy McRoy won a major?
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Oh it was ten years ago, right.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
I mean, I think about it. I mean it. And
my daughter, my youngest daughter's lifetime. She's nine years old.
Rory McElroy has not won a major in her lifetime yet.
He's nine to one.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
That is absolutely bonkers. Follow Jeff on that Cupmaker Jeff
the podcast is the Cupmaker Pod. Thanks Pal, best of
luck this week. Thanks and good luck giving those tickets
for the Indiana Fever season tickets as Jeff joined us
here in the Progressive Guest line up. Next, we'll get
into today's Major League Baseball card. Combined, these two sluggers
(11:38):
have really good numbers against today's opposing picture. Details on
that coming up next year.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
On Vison.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Betty splits are open to the public up a visa.
You don't need to be a Vson Pro subscriber. You
can hit a Vson dot com slash splitz and see
that the Philadelphia seventy six ers are getting sixty nine
percent nice of the money in terms of the spread.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
How about that sixty.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Four percent of the tickets. You can find that information
and more and it separated spread total money line. Yeah,
you get splits for all of it and for future
events as well. It is free check it out now
Vson dot com slash splitz.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
How'd that go last year with the splits? One in one?
Speaker 5 (12:26):
Yeah, yeah, one on one.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
The Lakers obviously were one of them that got there
and the Warriors did not.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
How about that second half by the Warriors, or I
should say by the Kings, because the way that the
Warriors closed and I bet the Warriors at halftime, yeah,
plus four and a half. I took a little on
the money line. They closed, got it within a you know,
reasonable margin.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
Four points at halftime and they were completely blown out. Yeah,
looked like that was gonna be the case. You're down
at one point, they were down nine offensive rebounds to
like nothing. Yeah, still kind of fighting around, like you said,
they closed it to within four.
Speaker 5 (13:03):
You're like, oh, this is it?
Speaker 4 (13:04):
And then maybe you get the pad did Warriors third
quarter that we used to way back in the day, Right,
this is it? You do this against the King scene
that's got nothing. Nope, they come out, they immediately put
their foot on the gas, never really let him get
back into it.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
It was a really good performance by Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
So how does this close out now for the Warriors?
Because why bring Klay Thompson back, yeah, other than they
want him to retire in a Warriors jersey. Unfortunately for
that guy, he had some horrific injuries and now battling
back from those are catching up to him at this point,
not even close to the same guy. And I love
Klay Thompson, but and he's even admitted he's not closed,
(13:36):
and he's so frustrating for him. But Draymond Green is
pretty much cooked. Steph still got a lot left. I
can't would Steph ever go anywhere else? Or do they would?
They have to bring in other like guys who have
been around for a long time. I think the idea
of Lebron going to Golden State, I don't hate it
eventually because Lebron doesn't care where he plays, right right,
He's been with one hundred different teams, so why would
(13:57):
he care if he had to go play. I would
love to see Curry and Lebron play together for a year.
Speaker 5 (14:02):
I mean really cool.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I mean yeah, And it's no given how deep the
league is, there's no guarantee that they would win a
championship either, so I think that it's not intrigue of
it right to be able to watch them play with
each other. I would assume that Curry is a warrior
for life and you're kind of just doing whatever you can.
And like to your point about what you're doing here
moving forward, like for example, I don't know what he'll
command on an open market potentially right now, Like Buddy
(14:24):
Heal is set to be an unrestricted free agent, he's
making about twenty three point five That would expect that
you're not making much more than that, But to go
get him as like a potential two guard type deal
to slot into the place of a Klay Thompson who
this year's making thirty seven point nine million dollars, Like that,
I think is like kind of a move that you're
looking to make to kind of upgrade what you're doing there, right,
I would like that. And then to your point too, Lebron,
(14:46):
he's got a player option for next year worth like
fifty million dollars. His kid has entered the NFL draft
right the process, but he can still go back to
school if he wants to. I've been kind of throwing
out there. Brian goes back to school one more year.
Lebron takes the option, plays on more year, becomes a
free agent the year his cut. His kid comes out
wherever he goes, Lebron goes.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Okay, a little major league baseball here.
Speaker 5 (15:06):
Golden State. Maybe maybe Clippers.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
They would draft him specifically to get Lebron to go there.
Speaker 5 (15:12):
Yeah, first overall, right, straight up to the first overall pick.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Coature makes a lot of sense. Kakuchi got me yesterday
on a k prop It was five and a half.
This guy's really dealing this year for the Blue Jays.
I think he's getting eighteen hours of sleep per night.
You don't know that story that came out last year, Like,
he's not the same guy. He needs like eleven twelve
hours of sleep. When he doesn't get it, he's not
the same guy.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
How do you feel about like doing this shift?
Speaker 1 (15:35):
I got a solid like it would not go well
for you, say Kakuchi at all in shambles, But he
came out. He struck off the side to begin the game.
Speaker 5 (15:44):
Yeah, you knew right then he's.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Been like the cop, the cop. If the Blue Jays
could hit with what they're getting right now out of
Barrios and Kakuchi, uh, they would be a I probably
would have bet him to win the World Series already,
and maybe their sticks are going to come around at
some point, and in fact that they probably will, but
they're getting that out of those two. And now Gosman
is the guy who struggling, and he goes today for
(16:07):
the Yankees. Judge in his career against Gosman has four
home runs, he's ten of thirty, two of the slugging
of seven fifty and Gean carlos Stan is seven of eighteen. Overall,
that's almost four hundred with the batting average, two home
runs and a slugging of almost seven to eighty against
Kevin Gossman, who's numbers again pretty bad so far this year.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
Yeah, I mean really poor eleventhy seventy RI six twenty
five fielding independent, Like there's there's no real signs of
like true regression coming. Now he can just totally just
improve and make things better. So I don't think he's
going to be pitching at the equivalent of like a
six er or actually be a six fip. And if
you look at it and you sort by like you know,
park and whatnot, and you look the expected fielding independent,
it's down to like four eighteen. So God like better
(16:47):
times are coming you would expect for Gosman given the history.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Okay, let me jump in for a second, then if
better times are coming for him, and I would agree
with that, ye wouldn't you also think that better times
are coming for the Bats? And if both those things happen.
I don't think Briosakakuci can sustain this current level. But
if they're in the middle of maybe career average, if
they're yeah, better than career year or like their career years, now,
(17:10):
blue Jay's probably going to be a force.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Oh yeah, No, I think they're worth looking at to
win the division. Like everything. That was one of the
teams that we had brought up when we were talking
about this on Prime Tip for you know, preseason stuff,
which was it is funny because as you're talking about
the thing that I kept throwing out was like the
other thing, they're bullpen's awesome. The back end is banged up,
but like they're awesome when they're fully together. So if
you get that. The concern coming into this year was
the starting pitching. I was pushing for them to go
(17:34):
get Montgomery, go go get them. You could use them.
Speaker 5 (17:37):
So I agree with you.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
If you get sustainable just like above average pitching, and
then the bats turn this thing around, your bullpen gets healthy,
and then all of a sudden, you're looking at this
Blue Jays team going, oh, holy smokes, like they've got
pretty much everything that you would want in a team
to compete for a World Series and a division by
the way.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Yep, yep. And I say this because it's a team
that I've bet on, i think two out of the
last three years to either win the American League or
win the World Series. Plus four to seventy five right now,
it's a really good division. Orioles are not coming on
a little bit here.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
That's the tough part the Orioles. Their lineup looks awesome
as usual. They're kind of looking exactly what we expected.
I mean, frankly, given the injuries that the Yankees have
dealt with early, I think that they look like better
than what the expectation was, even though they win total
was like about ninety three and a half, right, ninety
one and a half, excuse me, after losing coal and whatnot.
So if you can keep going now, I think like
Cortes and others are probably going to be some weak
(18:27):
links as you get like bigger sample sizes for the Yankees,
so maybe there's a fallback. But lineup looks just as
good as advertised.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
All right, So your Angels go today against the Rays
and Tana Yesterday that was a It went to extras.
Several pictures were used. It's Deptmers versus LTTEL in this game.
What if both these guys don't have it and it
has to be a bullpen game by the fifth maybe
the sixth, which I would anticipate anyway, after ball teams
(18:56):
use a bunch of guys yesterday right now, Deptmos has
been awesome this year. His numbers are terrific, seventeen plus
innings pitched so far, the ERA is right around one,
and the underlying numbers JBT tell you that it's not
really that big of a fluke. He's expected ERA is
two point five, the flip is one point four to three.
(19:16):
He has thirteen point five ks per nine sustainable yay nay?
Speaker 4 (19:21):
I think, I mean, I think the strike out numbers
are for sure. I think that when you're you could
strike out at that rate. I think that's absolutely something
that can that can sustain itself over the course of
this year. And look, the Tampa Bay Rays are a
lineup that's been kind of average so far this year.
We're talking about fifteen the way to runs create a plus.
If you're talking about strikeout rate, they're somewhere like they're
floating around bottom flake bottom half of the league right now.
(19:42):
So they're striking out at a rate that's good enough
that Dettmers can kind of keep this up. And this
game is also perfect example, like this is why first
fives were created. To your point, you know, if that like,
if you like Detmers a lot, you're going k props.
You're maybe you're going first five potentially a first five under,
like I got burned at the beginning of the week
that we talked to had sand on the first five,
you know, plus that for that half run he actually
(20:03):
pitched very well on the game of one run, but
it's in the bottom of the fifth, end up losing.
So maybe you go first five frames under. But to
bet this thing full game if you like det Meers
and to have the trust in the Angels bullpen that
right now has the fifth worst fielding independent as a unit,
that's not something that I would like to mess around
with at all.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
This is first five ritten all over.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Yeah, you don't want to go I don't want to
go full game here between these two, it would be
probably first five or nothing. Detmers has been. He's down
in some spots like thirty to one to win the
cy Young. You know, here's the thing. All of these
players who were once long shots are going to if
they haven't already drops it significantly just because of how
many injuries we've had over absolutely all, right, there's not
going to be a guy lingering out there at two
(20:43):
hundred to one or higher.
Speaker 5 (20:45):
Uh No, Blake Snell this year.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
Those numbers are gone pretty much, I think already.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Pretty much like unless you're you're hoping that guys like
I mean, I can't even think like.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
A Briolks has done it to fourteen to one at
one spot.
Speaker 5 (20:58):
That's in Sunse.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
I mean, you can theoretically you could buy a loo
on some guys that have fallen down because we have
plenty of baseball left than guys have made those pushes.
And as we know with awards, right, you tend to
be a little bit more like there are some recency
bias to that. But I think to your point, overall,
it's almost like it's almost like the MVP when it
comes to quarterbacks in the National Football League, where the
odds are just like just take every quarterback and put
(21:20):
them at like twenty to like five to one, and
then just throw them up on the board and like
right now, you just like take every healthy pitcher that
has some decent numbers and throw them up there inside
of like forty to one.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, make them between like eight and twenty to forty
to one. And there's like forty seven guys listed half
fun picking which one half fun throwing that dart Brewers
are at home today against the Podrays. I like the
addition of Michael King in the off season for the
Podraise hasn't gone so well on the season so far.
He's pitched in four games. The expected era is six
point four, the fifth to seven point three, and the
(21:51):
Podrays great job with the series so far. Going to
Milwaukee taking the first two, they get Freddy Peralta, who
has been outstanding this year.
Speaker 4 (22:00):
One of those guys too that if you looked at
it last year you kind of felt like that, right,
you'll probably get like an average pitcher here. But like
you mentioned, strikeouts are up, the walks are down, he's
not giving up anywhere near as many home runs, and
the balls in play he's getting a little lucky, but
it's not to the point where you're like, oh, this
thing's coming down to a crashing halt and not giving
up a ton of hard contact either.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
Man.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
He looks awesome.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
He needs to if he can keep this up and
limit the walks. He is in for one hell of
a year.
Speaker 4 (22:22):
He's one of those, another one of these guys, right,
Saion Up.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Next, Paul Charging on the show ky Fan Radio Minneapolis.
I asked him yesterday, do I need to bet the
Vikings to select jaj McCarthy with their first pick a
one word emphatic answer.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
He gave me.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Good to have you on board. Follow the money Mitch
Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel, who was in for
the vacationing Paulie Howard. We're live in downtown Las Vegas
from the Circa Resort and Casino. Our good friend Paul
Charchian joins the program now. He is a Fantasy Hall
of Famer. He's with ky Fan Radio in Minneapolis in
Guillotine Leagues dot Com. He joins us here on the
(23:05):
progressive guest line, good morning, pal, how you been?
Speaker 2 (23:09):
I've been great, and it's it's been too long.
Speaker 5 (23:10):
I don't like it.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
When we don't talk for three months, you don't write,
you know, I just I think, no postcards, nothing. I
feel like you've iced me out of your life.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Hold on, you're not getting my letters that I send
snail mail on a week have your wrong address?
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Damn it, Dela handwritten? Yeah, starting with batch nothing.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Okay, okay, so this is good. We have to pay
this off because I've been teasing throughout the entire show
that I sent you a text last night and I asked,
do I need to bet the Vikings to draft JJ
McCarthy with their first overall pick. You sent me back
a one word answer, and as I've said all show,
it felt like it was emphatic on your end. Tell
(23:50):
the audience what you told me, and why.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
No, And here's why I don't believe there's it's going
to be really, really hard for the Vikings to end
up with JJ McCarthy, I believe. So here's why, and
a couple of things. At first, I think understand almost
every mock draft has the Vikings moving up. Yes, that's
so lazy on the part of the mock drafter. I mean,
all you're doing is going Okay, I got to find
(24:14):
a way to get a quarterback needy team into a
position to take a quarterback, and well, yeah, the you know,
our general manager is desperate. But this is not like
you're five without a quarterback. The problem is a couple
of things. One, it's really expensive to move up if
you're the Vikings. The top three picks aren't going anywhere
those guys need Those are teams that need quarterbacks. There's
(24:36):
more than there's three good ones, and they're not going anywhere.
So that only really leaves the Vikings into a position
where they'd have to try to move into probably pick four,
pick five, to try to get a quarterback JJ McCarthy.
But okay, but that's not easy either. Giants might want
that pick. Titans might want to go there, Broncos might
(24:56):
want to go there, Raiders might want to go there.
Even the Jets who are close by, they may want
to go there too. So I think there's I think
it's gonna be much harder for the Vikings to get
up into position to take JJ McCarthy if they like
him at all, which we don't even know that either.
Then most people seem to think it's going to be
So that's not the angle I would use to bet
(25:19):
the Vikings in this draft.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Okay, so then lay out how you think it's going
to go. If they don't trade up, what position are
they going to go with at number eleven.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
I don't believe that's going to be an offensive position.
I do believe the Vikings will pick out of their
natural position at eleven or maybe even move down. So
know this, after the Vikings will have the two first
round picks, they don't pick again for eighty five picks,
and so there's a lot of reason to move down up.
They already moved up in this draft, but they just
may have just liked that deal. There's a chance they
(25:51):
could move back, including at eleven. But if they hold it,
eleven almost certainly going to address defense. This team basically
does not have a starting defensive end or cornerback on
roster right now, so they are really desperate for those spots. Now,
based on who's going to be available, they might get
their pick at eleven, their pickup defensive ends. I mean,
there's a chance Dallas Turner hasn't gone.
Speaker 5 (26:13):
At that point.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
And if it's not Dallas Dallas Turner, perhaps it's Jared
Verser Layatu Latu, which would be fun for all of
us that just want to save Layoutu Latu's name for
them for years to come, which would be great. So
that's how I believe this is most the probability is
that it will it will fall that way from Minnesota
at eleven.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
No, this is wild. Okay. So what if McCarthy's on
the board at number eleven.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Well, then they'd go McCarthy. Okay, Okay, Yeah, So I
mean to be clear, if McCarthy's there, and I'm assuming
that that they like him enough to take him in
that spot, which I don't know that to be the case.
But what I don't think they're gonna do is make
the big move that everybody projects them to to move
into range to go get him at four or five,
which is going to cost them first rounder, first rounder,
(26:58):
first round or second rounder maybe more. That's I think
that's just I think that's going to be too expensive
to make that move.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
So you're calling this like a likely scenario here where
the Vikings stay put or trade back and if they
go number eleven it's gonna be defense. Then they're currently
holding pick number twenty three, right do they go quarterback
at that point?
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Now it gets really interesting Michael Pennix I believe will
be there at pick twenty three, and that's why I'm
interested in Pennix to draft. To end up with the Vikings.
You can get that at plus four seventy. Those are
nice odds for a team that is going to have
two cracks at Michael Pennix eleven and twenty three, or
maybe they could move back on eleven as well, so
(27:40):
they could dump that thing back to eighteen whatever, so
they'll have two cracks at Pennix. And that's where I
think it gets a lot marginting cause the don't have
to pay anything to make that move, and you can
convince yourself that Pennix is worth a first round pick.
I don't like him as a first round pick, but
you can convince others do You can convince yourself that
Pennock is worth a move there. Vikings have a very
(28:02):
nice spot to end up with a quarterback in terms
of you know who's around you, justin Jefferson, presumably Jordan Addison, TJ.
Hockinson will come back off the knee injury, bookend tackles
in place. I mean, it's a nice spot to drop
a rookie quarterback into.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
If you need to.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
So I like, I like Pennis to end up as
a Viking much more I like McCarthy and you get
the two cracks at him and you get plus four seventy.
Speaker 4 (28:25):
Well, so you talk about moving back. Could it be
a situation where they move back from twenty three, like
for example, when you look at the order overall, and
this is very specific, but you know in the second
round the Caroline Panthers, I think of the first pick
of the second round. Could you do something like that
where you move yourself back at the front of the
second round and go get Penis or do you think
that would be twenty three is going to be the pick.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
No, I absolutely could move back from twenty three and
still get them. And you know, it may be that
maybe they try to keep him in the in the
first round so you get that fifty year option whatever.
I you know, maybe it's something like that. But yes,
moving back from twenty three and still getting Pennix is
in play here as well. So that's another pathway to
get Penix on this team plus four seventy.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
I love this conversation. Our guest Paul Chargi and Kfan
Radio in Minneapolis Fantasy Football Hall of Famergue Team leagues
dot Com here in the Progressive guest line. So you
said that you don't like Pennix there some may like him.
The Vikings like him enough. Do you know that at all?
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Don't know?
Speaker 2 (29:18):
You know, I really I don't. I don't have any
intel that gives me names and evaluations of players, so
I can't say that. So you know, we're there's some
conjecture here, But quarterback needy teams, you know, the temptation
to reach is pretty high. So you know we've seen
it time and time again. You know, Kenny Pickett Will
loves last year Kenny Pickett prior to that Desmond Ritter,
(29:41):
you know. So I just I still feel like there's
a viable pathway at plus four seventy.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
I like those on charge. What do you make of
the Vikings win total next year, which is around six
and a half.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
I'm sitting I like the under on that we at
this time. Well, last August we talked about the win
total for the Vikings and I urged under and and
we hit that. But you know we also needed cousins
to go. But this team. The important thing to know
about the Vikings one, you know they're gonna have either
Sam Darnold at a quarterback or they're gonna have some
rookie that's going to be, you know, playing for the
first time in his life. But also because the Vikings
(30:14):
have missed so badly on their last two drafts, this
is a team that does not have an injection of
young talent on it, and the divisions become so much harder.
The Vikings look like a one win team in its division,
so I'd give it based on the odds right now,
which I believe is sitting at a round minus one
(30:35):
ten to go under six and a half wins. I'd
take the under right now.
Speaker 1 (30:38):
All right, how about a team in their division, in fact,
they won it last year and almost went to the
super Bowl. At Detroy Lions. You have a couple of
what I think are really good angles here with their
first overall pick. What do you got?
Speaker 2 (30:50):
I'm gonna give you two plays, and I would I'd
put them back together, back and back. The Lions are
really complete roster except in their secondary, where they got
just ruled last year. We're gonna look at two things.
One is cornerback, which only played pays plus plus one
forty as the first player drafted from the Lions. But
there's also plus four thousand at safety, another position of
(31:13):
need for them. Let's talk it through for a second
for all the things that Detroit did so well to
get you right to the door of the Super Bowl.
They ranked thirtieth in pass defense by Pro Football Focus
in division. They got to face Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison,
DJ Moore, likely Roma's Adunesa if you think he's going
to go to the Bears, which I do. And the
Packers have got the promising young receivers, I mean, they
(31:36):
just have to get better in pass defense. Last year
they hit on Brian Branch and so you might be thinking,
like Detroit really going to go back to the well again.
But they were so bad at in their secondary last year.
They punted the entire position in the offseason except Branch.
They brought in a couple of veterans of Meek Robertson,
Carlton Davis unclear if they're really that great, and where
(31:57):
Detroit is drafting, you know, twenty ninth pick. It's right
when Cooper Dejene from Iowa could hit kouol Aid McKinstry
could hit Enus Rakestraw could hit those are your plus
one forties at cornerback.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
If you like.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Safety, they've got to replace Kirby Joseph, who last year
finished is the ninety third ranked safety by Pro Football Focus,
so they could This is when the safety position starts.
A kick in is right around pick twenty nine. Tyler Nuban,
Jayden Hicks, Javon Bullard, those guys could go there. So
I like the combo platter of cornerback at plus one
(32:30):
forty and that plus four thousand for a safety pick
for the Lions as their first player drafted. Really tempting.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
I'm on it. This conversation flew by my guy. I
could talk to you for Donald already. It's gone. We're done.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Well.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
The best part is you're saying a lot of stuff
that people aren't, which is.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
I love yes, you also like to you you want
to hang out for a couple of minutes or no,
yes you do. Okay, So Hank tight Chucks, you're going
to come back with us because he has another bomb
that he likes in the top ten. We're talking around
thirty five to one, and he thinks this guy's going
to go in the top five at plus money as well.
You're exactly right, JBT. This is why I think it's refreshing.
(33:08):
Everybody else has the Vikings treading up. Chargers like hold
on not going to be that easy, So find out
what else charge likes coming up here and follow the money.
It's vs V Sports Betting Network.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action
at DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports Betty partner of the
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(33:58):
on DraftKings.
Speaker 5 (33:59):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
We continue here with Paul Charci and he is on
the Progressive guest Line Fantasy Football Hall of Famer Kfan
Radio in Minneapolis. SHAVT, What did you see that you
wanted to throw at charts regarding that Texans Vikings trade.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Yeah, I want to give your thoughts if you had
any intel on this, So I think I was listening
to I want to say it was Pro Football Focus,
and they were mentioning that there was some scuttle but
that when it came to the trade that Minnesota and
Houston had done to get that second first round pick,
that it was actually Houston that initiated conversations. There is
there any truth to that, because that does shape right,
like getting this and your thought about going up to
move it, like it doesn't necessarily mean that they went
(34:35):
out there got the second round pick to move up.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
That's exactly right. I saw the same report and that
said the same thing, and I think I think it
further solidifies why I would not be putting my money
on the Vikings us necessarily moving up. They didn't move
into that get that second first rounder to package and
move up. Houston approached them, though it wasn't like the
Vikings felt like they needed it. And my understanding is
(35:00):
the Texans approached them and they just looked at their
their value chart in this draft and went, you know what,
it makes sense, So it was not like the Bikings
initiated that to move up, and then you know, just
it mildly changes the conversation a little bit, and it
does filter in a little bit to why I don't
think that part of why I don't think this team's
going to go get JJ McCarthy or move up into
position four or five to put themselves in a position
(35:22):
to get a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
You know what, here's the prediction. Then if you're right
with all of this charge and they don't trade up,
you know what the reaction is going to be next
Thursday night on the draft. People are going to be stunned. Meanwhile,
you're going to be city back going why are you stunned?
This was not going to happen in the first It's
very difficult to do what people just automatically speculated was
going to happen.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Yeah, and I'll be working the Vikings official draft party
at us Bank Stadium in front of you know, like
ten thousand fans, and if one of these isn't a quarterback,
it's going to be a restless crowd. But I think
I think there's a good chance of that. Or it's
Michael Pennix probably it picked twenty three or via a
trade back.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
Who do you like at plusids to go in the
tip five?
Speaker 2 (36:01):
So all right, I want to let's talk that through.
We already mentioned the top three picks are going to
be quarterbacks, and it's probably going to stay with Chicago, Washington,
New England. That makes sense. The next two, two teams
that are desperate at wide receiver, are looking right at
two of the best wide receiver prospects that we've had
in years, Marvin Harrison and Melik Neighbors. Now Harrison's not
even in this conversation. The odds for him are not
(36:22):
good going in the top five. Harrison is minus twelve
hundred to go in the top five, Melik Neighbors plus
one fifty. I mean, this is like a seven x
delta on your return here. If I'm doing the math right,
maybe it's more than that seven times odds better on Neighbors.
But many people think Neighbors it's going to go before
(36:43):
Marvin Harrison, that they're so close that if some teams
like this, the particular skill set you get with Neighbors more,
he could even go before Harrison. But he doesn't even
have to go before Harrison.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
For this to hit.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
You know, the probability is Arizona at four takes Harrison,
and then the Chargers at five take Neighbors, and bang,
you just went plus one fifty. Now pick five again, Chargers,
they traded away, remember Keenan Allen. They let Mike Williams
go LA's current wideouts Mitch and Jonathan, Quinton Johnston, Josh
Palmer rolling into Shemp, Howard Oprah, Winfrey's longtime boyfriend Steedman,
(37:19):
and then six cans of easyg's which for legal reasons
cannot be spelled cch E s E. They they've got
to take a wide receiver. And by the way, and
I think that's all the reason why they don't trade
down with like the Vikings to go get a quarterback
is these are receiver desperate teams that are staring at
potential Hall of Fame level guys. So I don't think
I don't think they're moving. And I like the leak
(37:40):
Neighbors to be in the top five at plus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
So it doesn't sound to me like you're very concerned
at all with Jim Harbaugh's comments about offensive line and
how important that is.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
No, I guess you know. I just don't think you
let somebody like Neighbors get by you as particularly when
you're starting that group of receivers.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
Okay, and how important you think top thirty, it's all
right because by all accounts they haven't had a top
thirty visit with one of these offensive lineman the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
That is now all the time you end up seeing,
you know, player gets drafted. Media asks you know, was
this team on your radar? No, we never had any contact.
You know, we barely talked. So now that doesn't that work.
Doesn't worry me too much.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Okay, you you really want to get nuts with the
Titans picking at number seven. All the Titan there's been
offensive line that's a huge favorite of minus three dollars. Now.
The GM and the coach, they were talking in the
offseason about adding playmakers, maybe targeting the draft. They did
that in the offseason though obviously and wide receiver was
the second shot on the board. You're not looking at
either one of those. You want to go really far
(38:37):
down the board.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
Why because we have an amazing value opportunity with the Titans.
They pick it seven right now, which they could hold,
but they could also move up a little bit down
a little bit from seven to take a quarterback at
plus three thousand and five hundred for the Titans to
take a quarterback, and you might be thinking, well charge, wait, wait, wait,
(38:59):
they just after Will Levis. How about a little reminder
on Will Levis. I mean, and by the way, brand
new coaching staff that is not married to Will Levis.
So let's just recap little Will Levis from last year.
He has his big debut game Week eight against Atlanta,
and he throws four touchdowns in that game. You guys
know how many touchdowns he threw the rest of the year.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
After Week eight, I'm going to say the number is
shorter than four.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
Four four, Okay, he threw for the rest of the year.
Pro Football Focus ranked Will Levis forty third in passing,
behind Easton Stick, Drew Locke, Tommy DeVito, and Mason Rudolph.
He was spraying the ball around the field at a
fifty seven percent completion rate. Will Levis ranked dead last
(39:46):
in completion rate among NFL quarterbacks, worse than Bailey's Appy,
Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and a dozen other non functional
NFL backups who found their way out of the field
last year. Like Levis, your general manager Joe Robinson is
on thin ice. He just can his entire coaching staff.
He knows that he's got to do something to get
the quarterback position squared away, because he's got a run
(40:07):
out of scapegoats because he just fired all the scapegoats.
You know, you can't turn around and fire this coaching
staff too. So how do you How do gms keep
their jobs? They do it by finding franchise quarterbacks. Titans
are i think, much more likely to go quarterback than
the odds would suggest. Plus three thousand, five hundred for
the Titans to not double down on Will Levis, who
(40:28):
looked bad last year, I'm interested in that.
Speaker 4 (40:31):
I think makes sense. I mean, we see well because
we also, I mean we've seen teams in the past, right,
which is charged like it's kind of easy to move
on from these quarterbacks. You only spent the thirty fourth
overall pick on Lewis, so it's not like you're heavily
invested in him from a draft capitol standpoint.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
Right, And you know, are you gonna do what the
Falcons did last year and what the Steelers did last
year and take a not a non functional young quarterback
and go, you know what, We're going to double down
one more year. That's how people lose jobs, and that's
how the Falcons offensive Falcons coach staff got blown out.
Steelers had to make a move off of Kenny Pickett.
They tried another season for him because he had been
(41:06):
a first round pick, you know, or maybe you could
be Joe Robinson in Tennessee and just go, Okay, we
tried Will Loves It didn't work, and you know, we're
going to go with another quarterback. And by the way,
it's not like Will Loves dies. I mean, if it
turns out he's great in year two, he's still on
your roster and you can still start him.
Speaker 1 (41:22):
You love chaos, You love anarchy.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Don't you. Well at plus three thy five hundred, now
I start to get real interested in chaos.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
Well, I'm just I'm trying to envision what the again,
what the reaction is going to be live during the draft.
If you're right about everything, if all of this stuff happens,
people are going to be losing their minds. By the way,
JBT has been chirping to me, we only a couple
of minutes left here. I don't know what this fallout?
What is this? I'm guessing that you love it? Is
(41:52):
it worth watching?
Speaker 4 (41:53):
School in Charge?
Speaker 5 (41:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Go ahead?
Speaker 3 (41:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (41:55):
So you know.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Followed is a is a thirty year old series of
video games started like Top Down, Point and Click turned
into an action narrative. It's post apocalyptic, it's set two
hundred ish years after bombs dropped in what is a
roughly like nineteen fifties America, and the video games have
been great. I've only seen one episode of it so far.
(42:18):
The production quality is unbelievable. There's tons of fans service
in it if you want it, but you don't need it,
you know, tons of callbacks to the video games and
big moments and stuff. Acting looks pretty good, story is good,
and the world that they've built has always been a
fascinating blend of retro fifties and futuristic you know, robotics
(42:38):
and stuff, and it's it looks good. I think followed
on Amazon. I mean, you don't have to like video games.
My wife doesn't know anything about the video games. So
you enjoyed the pilot, So yeah, I think it certainly
worth dabbling in if you like science fiction.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
What's the best show on TV that you're watching right now?
Speaker 2 (42:53):
Showgun for sure, Showgun's fantastic. Okay, Feudal Japan British guy
and Feudal Japan who drops into a war between the
Portuguese and himself with the Catholics and the Protestants, and
a rise to power in Japan is feuding, feuding families
or trying to gain power, and this American somehow finds
himself in the middle of it. Very well acted, very authentic,
(43:17):
and a great story if you like the Game of
Thrones level of machinations to see who's going to get
come out on top among warring families. Showgun on AMC. Fantastic.
Speaker 4 (43:27):
Didn't Tom Cruise already do that with the last Samurai?
Speaker 1 (43:32):
All right, you can follow Paul Charchian on X He's
at Paul Charchian. We talked to him every single week
during the football season. That was a great half an
hour man. But every time he come on, it's like
minus ten thousand. It's going to be great. So thank
you so much for the time.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Thank you, my friends. All Right, we'll talk soon.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
Go by.
Speaker 1 (43:47):
Yeah, there you go. I want everything he joined us
on the Progressive guest line. I want everything that he
just said to happen next Thursday, that it'd be great.
Speaker 4 (43:53):
I mean, the Titans angle is actually a really smart
one too when you look at it.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
The Vikings angle.
Speaker 4 (43:57):
JJ McCarthy, can we give JJ McCarthy to or to
Tennessee odds.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Yeah, you can probably find that, actually, in fact will
shop around top of the Hour next
Speaker 3 (44:08):
H
The Money.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's why I always say you always follow it. Yeah,
this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly
Howard on Vson.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in. It is Follow the Money here on Vson,
the Sports Betty Network. The show is brought to you
by Draft Kings Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel.
He is in for Paul Howard who is vacationing this week.
And we are alive as always in downtown Las Vegas
from the Circa Resort and Casino. Starting this hour off
with a little golf, talking about the heritage this week,
handicapping it as our buddy Indy. Jeff Seeley joins the program.
(00:32):
He's on x at Cutmaker Jeff. The podcast is the
Cutmaker Podcast and he's on the progressive guest line Jeff,
good morning. But we do call you Indy Jeff for
a reason obviously from that great city. What is it
like living in and around that area?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Now?
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I mean two and a half million people watched the
Draft the other night with Caitlin Clark going number one overall.
You told us, I think it was two weeks ago
that the last time that you could watch like get
your kids and your wife to sit down and watch
a game. Was when like, the Pacers are in the
playoffs and the culture in the playoffs, but they have
the fever with Clark here.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Now, yeah, and it's as you said, it's an ironic name, right.
I mean, you've got the Indiana fever and everybody's got
Caitlin Clark fever. And it's I mean, obviously jerseys have
sold out tickets, have you know? Tickets are insane price
wise now And again, you guys thought in Vegas, right,
they moved the second game of the season is there.
They moved to t Mobile Arena, double the capacity. So
(01:28):
I mean, I I think, guys, honestly, I think we're
in like Tiger Woods category now where it's everybody turns
on the TV and and and frankly, I think I
think it's great for sports, right. I mean, I see
Jeff Sherman now tweeting w NBA adds more more than
I've ever seen. And frankly, you can, even from pure
betting perspective, I think it's really good for the betting markets, right, Like,
(01:51):
how many times did you bet women's college basketball before
this year, Mitch?
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Not very often? A handful of times, right, This year A.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Yeah, absolutely, and so I think it's just it's better
better universally for for you know, whether you know, for
women in general, but also just if you're a better
and like to best sports. I think it's greatious to
have that one more market to bet. And uh, it's
gonna be really entertaining because I saw Sherman put up
the MVP adds for for WNBA, Like, I promise you
(02:21):
you've never met at w NBA MVP market before, right, So,
so so here we are and and again it's there's
one person to thank for that. It's Kaitlyn Clark. So
it's I think it's it's obviously very exciting to have
her in India. I liketually live in a suburb called Noblesville,
and there's a full on like movement here to try
to get her to move to our town. And so
(02:44):
because because she she she likes to play golf, and
there are there are twenty four golf courses in my county.
So we're like full on, full on movement trying to
get Caitlyn Clark to move to my town. The one
rub we have against this is like we're forty five
minutes from on town. I highly doubt she's going to
want to drive forty five minutes to work every day.
(03:05):
I'm sure we could get her a car service or
something and figure it out. But yeah, I mean it's nuts,
and certainly the town has I mean, I can't And
the only thing I could like in it too is
maybe Peyton Manning. Right like it is, it's crazy. The
excitement about WNPA something honestly never thought I'd say, so
(03:27):
pretty special time to be here.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
You're right, I mean the betting handle at every sports
book across the country for the WNBA this year is
going to skyrocket, There's no doubt in my mind because
of her, so Ronda, the heritage. I have a couple
of questions here before we get your best bets. Why
are we doing an elevated event the week after the Masters?
And why is Scottie Scheffler playing in this thing?
Speaker 3 (03:47):
So those are both are great questions, and honestly, guys,
like I mean, I think a lot of people sort
of I mean myself include I think a lot of people,
a lot of players even will have sort of a
Master's hangover. Right, it was a very anticlimactic Masters. I mean,
you could have you could have turned it off at
nine holes in with Scotty just kind of walked away
with it. And and those guys you talk about grueling,
(04:08):
I mean you guys watch the Masters. That had to
be with the most grueling mentally grueling four rounds of
golf ever to survive that thing get through. Why do
you want to play this week? And Scotty, he said
during the Masters if his if his wife's having a kid,
he's gonna leave, like number one. I don't love ever
betting anybody at that short of odds, but this week,
(04:30):
especially with that on the line. Uh, you know, the
kid getting ready to come out anytime, there's there's no
way I'm betting Scotty this week. That said, if the
kid cit equation was out of play, you almost you
almost have to bet him now because we're in tiger Woods,
you know, we're tiger Woods are area now where he's
just he is so far and away the best player.
I mean, a bunch of guys, a bunch of really
(04:50):
good golfers tried to run him down last week. Obet
is going to be special. I've said a million times,
but Scotty is just head and shoulders above everyone right now.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
Yep, totally.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
So when you look at this, then, like, how do
you attack this this tournament? Are you avoiding kind of
the guys at the top. Are we looking a little
bit more middle of the pack. How do you attack
this from the guys you're going to circle?
Speaker 3 (05:10):
Yeah, JBT, I think this is a really good week
to attack the middle of the board. I think we
can find some quality players at really good prices. You know,
I've got four guys highlighted here that I are very
very live to win. That you can get it forty
five fifty or so to one. And you know, we
talked about this with golf a lot, right, the value
(05:31):
you can get, the pricing golf relative to other sports. Right,
So I know you your big NBA guys JBT. Right,
if we look at this and say, okay, we take
a team, let's just take the calves, Right, the odds
of the Calves win the NBA Championship are not very high,
probably fifty five to sixty to one. I think that
(05:53):
the guys we're going to lift at forty five to
sixty to one are a way better value than the
calves with the ANBA Championship, just because it's one tournament
there's no cut. I think it's a really good, good
week to play these guys, and we'll start with Corey Connors.
Corey Connors is forty five to one, especially as a
top ten or top twenty play you can find in
top ten plus three to fifty or better. Elite iron
(06:16):
player gains off the tee iron play is fantastic. Three
straight finishes inside the top forty combined with three of
his last four finishes inside the top twenty one here
gain more than three shots with his irons in six
straight events. So again, irons are very dialed in. If
somehow he can gain with the putter like he did
at the Masters, I think he's very very alive here.
(06:38):
Forty five to one outright top ten a plus three
fifty are better. Love that market. Another guy who always
plays well here Brian Harmon fifty to one. Gained with
the putter and three of his last four events gained
average with three shots total prior to the Masters, which
was a total disaster for him. Do you guys watch that?
That was a disaster again. If he's ever gonna bounce back,
(07:01):
no cut event, it's it's close to you know, close
to his home in Georgia, right, I look for a
bounce back here where he finished, you know, inside the
top thirteen and two of his last three trips. Gonna
keep in the fairway, gonna make putts. Brian Harmon's very
live here. I like him top ten at plus three
fifty or better, top twenty at plus one fifty. And then, yeah, guys,
(07:23):
I look at two other guys, JT posting, Mitch. We
played him a lot this year. He's been struggling a
little bit lately, but I think now is a great
week to go back to JT post in fifty five
to one, top ten, top twenty especially. Yeah, you know
he's he's missed two of his last three cuts here,
but he has three top ten finishes here. Form isn't great,
(07:44):
but that's why we're getting a really good price on
JT posting here. Short iron approach very good lately. We
know his putter can get hot. Earlier this year he
gained an average with three strokes putting across seven events
plus well here, I like JT posting. And then last
Chris Kirk fifty five to one, seventh here in twenty
twenty one, comes in with really good form, having finished
(08:06):
twenty sixth of the players, sixteenth of the masters games
around the Green gains on approach pluts. Well, here another
guy I think is a great top twenty bet at
plus one fifty you're better, and sprinkles him out right
in top tens as well.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Okay, yeah, that's very important that you point that out.
It's follow the money here on vsin D Sports Betty Network,
our guest Jeff Seely. He's on x at Cupmaker Jeff
and his podcast is called The Cutmaker Podcast. So you're
running down guys all rights, but you're also mentioning, look,
I'm also going to grab top ten top twenties as well,
so you get involved with the placements. Those are kind
of like the core four. This week, you do have
(08:40):
one bomb in the eighty to one range. Who is it?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Yeah, guys, I like Keigan Bradley eighty to one. I
think he's a very good iron player if he can
gain with this potter the way he did it Augussa,
I think he's a really good play. And then three
hundred to one. You know, we have to sprinkle in
some Eric Barnes here, but you can find him on
DraftKings top forty plus one twenty five. I love that vet.
This week, Barnes in Texas was on the sixteenth hole
(09:09):
and his caddy had to leave for his wife had
emergency surgery, so he had to play the second round,
the last two holes in the second round with a
random caddy that he just was just assigned, which obviously
is not optimal. He's got his caddy back, caddy's wife's
doing okay, and so now I expect to bounce back
from him. Top forty this week plus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Eric Barnes is a great play, okay, So everything's good
there with him. So top forty A look at No.
Patrick Cantley, Huh. I've heard a lot of people make
the case for him this week.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Nobody loves Patrick Cantlan more than Jeff Sherman, so Sherman
is obviously going to play him. But I know, I mean,
eighteen to one, I think he's not a bad play.
I could certainly make a case for it, but I think, guys,
I'm going to save my money for my top ten,
top twenty guys in that mid market range and just
I'm just gonna pass on Cantlin.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Okay, fair enough. Jeff is one of many guys. So
I've heard the case. And lastly, did you rush peer
apps to fire on Rory McElroy at nine to one
to win the PGA?
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I did, No, I did not. I did not. I mean, boy,
you think about I mean, you talk about a guy
who's just kind of lost in the majors, right, I did.
I'll tell you what I did. But I did bet
him on Sunday at the Masters to have low round
because how it's so Rory you like to shoot, to
shoot like the fifty the last day and finish top
top five, back door top five. It didn't happen. He's
(10:34):
not gonna win the DGA, He's not gonna he's never
gonna win a major again.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Oh, I mean he's never.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
I would take the no on never winning a major again.
I think that. I think Jordan Steeth is way more
live to win a major than Rory McElroy is. I
mean the guy is he is. There's just no Wayyef.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
He doesn't win nearly enough to be priced around nine,
ten to eleven to one in all these tournaments. There's
no chance I can bet that number.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
Miss. Tell me the last time Roy McRoy won a major?
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Oh it was ten years ago, right.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
I mean, I think about it. I mean it. And
my daughter, my youngest daughter's lifetime. She's nine years old.
Rory McElroy has not won a major in her lifetime yet.
He's nine to one.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
That is absolutely bonkers. Follow Jeff on that Cupmaker Jeff
the podcast is the Cupmaker Pod. Thanks Pal, best of
luck this week. Thanks and good luck giving those tickets
for the Indiana Fever season tickets as Jeff joined us
here in the Progressive Guest line up. Next, we'll get
into today's Major League Baseball card. Combined, these two sluggers
(11:38):
have really good numbers against today's opposing picture. Details on
that coming up next year.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
On Vison.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Betty splits are open to the public up a visa.
You don't need to be a Vson Pro subscriber. You
can hit a Vson dot com slash splitz and see
that the Philadelphia seventy six ers are getting sixty nine
percent nice of the money in terms of the spread.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
How about that sixty.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Four percent of the tickets. You can find that information
and more and it separated spread total money line. Yeah,
you get splits for all of it and for future
events as well. It is free check it out now
Vson dot com slash splitz.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
How'd that go last year with the splits? One in one?
Speaker 5 (12:26):
Yeah, yeah, one on one.
Speaker 4 (12:27):
The Lakers obviously were one of them that got there
and the Warriors did not.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
How about that second half by the Warriors, or I
should say by the Kings, because the way that the
Warriors closed and I bet the Warriors at halftime, yeah,
plus four and a half. I took a little on
the money line. They closed, got it within a you know,
reasonable margin.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
Four points at halftime and they were completely blown out. Yeah,
looked like that was gonna be the case. You're down
at one point, they were down nine offensive rebounds to
like nothing. Yeah, still kind of fighting around, like you said,
they closed it to within four.
Speaker 5 (13:03):
You're like, oh, this is it?
Speaker 4 (13:04):
And then maybe you get the pad did Warriors third
quarter that we used to way back in the day, Right,
this is it? You do this against the King scene
that's got nothing. Nope, they come out, they immediately put
their foot on the gas, never really let him get
back into it.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
It was a really good performance by Sacramento.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
So how does this close out now for the Warriors?
Because why bring Klay Thompson back, yeah, other than they
want him to retire in a Warriors jersey. Unfortunately for
that guy, he had some horrific injuries and now battling
back from those are catching up to him at this point,
not even close to the same guy. And I love
Klay Thompson, but and he's even admitted he's not closed,
(13:36):
and he's so frustrating for him. But Draymond Green is
pretty much cooked. Steph still got a lot left. I
can't would Steph ever go anywhere else? Or do they would?
They have to bring in other like guys who have
been around for a long time. I think the idea
of Lebron going to Golden State, I don't hate it
eventually because Lebron doesn't care where he plays, right right,
He's been with one hundred different teams, so why would
(13:57):
he care if he had to go play. I would
love to see Curry and Lebron play together for a year.
Speaker 5 (14:02):
I mean really cool.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I mean yeah, And it's no given how deep the
league is, there's no guarantee that they would win a
championship either, so I think that it's not intrigue of
it right to be able to watch them play with
each other. I would assume that Curry is a warrior
for life and you're kind of just doing whatever you can.
And like to your point about what you're doing here
moving forward, like for example, I don't know what he'll
command on an open market potentially right now, Like Buddy
(14:24):
Heal is set to be an unrestricted free agent, he's
making about twenty three point five That would expect that
you're not making much more than that, But to go
get him as like a potential two guard type deal
to slot into the place of a Klay Thompson who
this year's making thirty seven point nine million dollars, Like that,
I think is like kind of a move that you're
looking to make to kind of upgrade what you're doing there, right,
I would like that. And then to your point too, Lebron,
(14:46):
he's got a player option for next year worth like
fifty million dollars. His kid has entered the NFL draft
right the process, but he can still go back to
school if he wants to. I've been kind of throwing
out there. Brian goes back to school one more year.
Lebron takes the option, plays on more year, becomes a
free agent the year his cut. His kid comes out
wherever he goes, Lebron goes.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Okay, a little major league baseball here.
Speaker 5 (15:06):
Golden State. Maybe maybe Clippers.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
They would draft him specifically to get Lebron to go there.
Speaker 5 (15:12):
Yeah, first overall, right, straight up to the first overall pick.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Coature makes a lot of sense. Kakuchi got me yesterday
on a k prop It was five and a half.
This guy's really dealing this year for the Blue Jays.
I think he's getting eighteen hours of sleep per night.
You don't know that story that came out last year, Like,
he's not the same guy. He needs like eleven twelve
hours of sleep. When he doesn't get it, he's not
the same guy.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
How do you feel about like doing this shift?
Speaker 1 (15:35):
I got a solid like it would not go well
for you, say Kakuchi at all in shambles, But he
came out. He struck off the side to begin the game.
Speaker 5 (15:44):
Yeah, you knew right then he's.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Been like the cop, the cop. If the Blue Jays
could hit with what they're getting right now out of
Barrios and Kakuchi, uh, they would be a I probably
would have bet him to win the World Series already,
and maybe their sticks are going to come around at
some point, and in fact that they probably will, but
they're getting that out of those two. And now Gosman
is the guy who struggling, and he goes today for
(16:07):
the Yankees. Judge in his career against Gosman has four
home runs, he's ten of thirty, two of the slugging
of seven fifty and Gean carlos Stan is seven of eighteen. Overall,
that's almost four hundred with the batting average, two home
runs and a slugging of almost seven to eighty against
Kevin Gossman, who's numbers again pretty bad so far this year.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
Yeah, I mean really poor eleventhy seventy RI six twenty
five fielding independent, Like there's there's no real signs of
like true regression coming. Now he can just totally just
improve and make things better. So I don't think he's
going to be pitching at the equivalent of like a
six er or actually be a six fip. And if
you look at it and you sort by like you know,
park and whatnot, and you look the expected fielding independent,
it's down to like four eighteen. So God like better
(16:47):
times are coming you would expect for Gosman given the history.
Speaker 1 (16:50):
Okay, let me jump in for a second, then if
better times are coming for him, and I would agree
with that, ye wouldn't you also think that better times
are coming for the Bats? And if both those things happen.
I don't think Briosakakuci can sustain this current level. But
if they're in the middle of maybe career average, if
they're yeah, better than career year or like their career years, now,
(17:10):
blue Jay's probably going to be a force.
Speaker 4 (17:12):
Oh yeah, No, I think they're worth looking at to
win the division. Like everything. That was one of the
teams that we had brought up when we were talking
about this on Prime Tip for you know, preseason stuff,
which was it is funny because as you're talking about
the thing that I kept throwing out was like the
other thing, they're bullpen's awesome. The back end is banged up,
but like they're awesome when they're fully together. So if
you get that. The concern coming into this year was
the starting pitching. I was pushing for them to go
(17:34):
get Montgomery, go go get them. You could use them.
Speaker 5 (17:37):
So I agree with you.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
If you get sustainable just like above average pitching, and
then the bats turn this thing around, your bullpen gets healthy,
and then all of a sudden, you're looking at this
Blue Jays team going, oh, holy smokes, like they've got
pretty much everything that you would want in a team
to compete for a World Series and a division by
the way.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Yep, yep. And I say this because it's a team
that I've bet on, i think two out of the
last three years to either win the American League or
win the World Series. Plus four to seventy five right now,
it's a really good division. Orioles are not coming on
a little bit here.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
That's the tough part the Orioles. Their lineup looks awesome
as usual. They're kind of looking exactly what we expected.
I mean, frankly, given the injuries that the Yankees have
dealt with early, I think that they look like better
than what the expectation was, even though they win total
was like about ninety three and a half, right, ninety
one and a half, excuse me, after losing coal and whatnot.
So if you can keep going now, I think like
Cortes and others are probably going to be some weak
(18:27):
links as you get like bigger sample sizes for the Yankees,
so maybe there's a fallback. But lineup looks just as
good as advertised.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
All right, So your Angels go today against the Rays
and Tana Yesterday that was a It went to extras.
Several pictures were used. It's Deptmers versus LTTEL in this game.
What if both these guys don't have it and it
has to be a bullpen game by the fifth maybe
the sixth, which I would anticipate anyway, after ball teams
(18:56):
use a bunch of guys yesterday right now, Deptmos has
been awesome this year. His numbers are terrific, seventeen plus
innings pitched so far, the ERA is right around one,
and the underlying numbers JBT tell you that it's not
really that big of a fluke. He's expected ERA is
two point five, the flip is one point four to three.
(19:16):
He has thirteen point five ks per nine sustainable yay nay?
Speaker 4 (19:21):
I think, I mean, I think the strike out numbers
are for sure. I think that when you're you could
strike out at that rate. I think that's absolutely something
that can that can sustain itself over the course of
this year. And look, the Tampa Bay Rays are a
lineup that's been kind of average so far this year.
We're talking about fifteen the way to runs create a plus.
If you're talking about strikeout rate, they're somewhere like they're
floating around bottom flake bottom half of the league right now.
(19:42):
So they're striking out at a rate that's good enough
that Dettmers can kind of keep this up. And this
game is also perfect example, like this is why first
fives were created. To your point, you know, if that like,
if you like Detmers a lot, you're going k props.
You're maybe you're going first five potentially a first five under,
like I got burned at the beginning of the week
that we talked to had sand on the first five,
you know, plus that for that half run he actually
(20:03):
pitched very well on the game of one run, but
it's in the bottom of the fifth, end up losing.
So maybe you go first five frames under. But to
bet this thing full game if you like det Meers
and to have the trust in the Angels bullpen that
right now has the fifth worst fielding independent as a unit,
that's not something that I would like to mess around
with at all.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
This is first five ritten all over.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Yeah, you don't want to go I don't want to
go full game here between these two, it would be
probably first five or nothing. Detmers has been. He's down
in some spots like thirty to one to win the
cy Young. You know, here's the thing. All of these
players who were once long shots are going to if
they haven't already drops it significantly just because of how
many injuries we've had over absolutely all, right, there's not
going to be a guy lingering out there at two
(20:43):
hundred to one or higher.
Speaker 5 (20:45):
Uh No, Blake Snell this year.
Speaker 1 (20:48):
Those numbers are gone pretty much, I think already.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Pretty much like unless you're you're hoping that guys like
I mean, I can't even think like.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
A Briolks has done it to fourteen to one at
one spot.
Speaker 5 (20:58):
That's in Sunse.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
I mean, you can theoretically you could buy a loo
on some guys that have fallen down because we have
plenty of baseball left than guys have made those pushes.
And as we know with awards, right, you tend to
be a little bit more like there are some recency
bias to that. But I think to your point, overall,
it's almost like it's almost like the MVP when it
comes to quarterbacks in the National Football League, where the
odds are just like just take every quarterback and put
(21:20):
them at like twenty to like five to one, and
then just throw them up on the board and like
right now, you just like take every healthy pitcher that
has some decent numbers and throw them up there inside
of like forty to one.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, make them between like eight and twenty to forty
to one. And there's like forty seven guys listed half
fun picking which one half fun throwing that dart Brewers
are at home today against the Podrays. I like the
addition of Michael King in the off season for the
Podraise hasn't gone so well on the season so far.
He's pitched in four games. The expected era is six
point four, the fifth to seven point three, and the
(21:51):
Podrays great job with the series so far. Going to
Milwaukee taking the first two, they get Freddy Peralta, who
has been outstanding this year.
Speaker 4 (22:00):
One of those guys too that if you looked at
it last year you kind of felt like that, right,
you'll probably get like an average pitcher here. But like
you mentioned, strikeouts are up, the walks are down, he's
not giving up anywhere near as many home runs, and
the balls in play he's getting a little lucky, but
it's not to the point where you're like, oh, this
thing's coming down to a crashing halt and not giving
up a ton of hard contact either.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
Man.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
He looks awesome.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
He needs to if he can keep this up and
limit the walks. He is in for one hell of
a year.
Speaker 4 (22:22):
He's one of those, another one of these guys, right,
Saion Up.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Next, Paul Charging on the show ky Fan Radio Minneapolis.
I asked him yesterday, do I need to bet the
Vikings to select jaj McCarthy with their first pick a
one word emphatic answer.
Speaker 4 (22:35):
He gave me.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Good to have you on board. Follow the money Mitch
Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel, who was in for
the vacationing Paulie Howard. We're live in downtown Las Vegas
from the Circa Resort and Casino. Our good friend Paul
Charchian joins the program now. He is a Fantasy Hall
of Famer. He's with ky Fan Radio in Minneapolis in
Guillotine Leagues dot Com. He joins us here on the
(23:05):
progressive guest line, good morning, pal, how you been?
Speaker 2 (23:09):
I've been great, and it's it's been too long.
Speaker 5 (23:10):
I don't like it.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
When we don't talk for three months, you don't write,
you know, I just I think, no postcards, nothing. I
feel like you've iced me out of your life.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Hold on, you're not getting my letters that I send
snail mail on a week have your wrong address?
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Damn it, Dela handwritten? Yeah, starting with batch nothing.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Okay, okay, so this is good. We have to pay
this off because I've been teasing throughout the entire show
that I sent you a text last night and I asked,
do I need to bet the Vikings to draft JJ
McCarthy with their first overall pick. You sent me back
a one word answer, and as I've said all show,
it felt like it was emphatic on your end. Tell
(23:50):
the audience what you told me, and why.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
No, And here's why I don't believe there's it's going
to be really, really hard for the Vikings to end
up with JJ McCarthy, I believe. So here's why, and
a couple of things. At first, I think understand almost
every mock draft has the Vikings moving up. Yes, that's
so lazy on the part of the mock drafter. I mean,
all you're doing is going Okay, I got to find
(24:14):
a way to get a quarterback needy team into a
position to take a quarterback, and well, yeah, the you know,
our general manager is desperate. But this is not like
you're five without a quarterback. The problem is a couple
of things. One, it's really expensive to move up if
you're the Vikings. The top three picks aren't going anywhere
those guys need Those are teams that need quarterbacks. There's
(24:36):
more than there's three good ones, and they're not going anywhere.
So that only really leaves the Vikings into a position
where they'd have to try to move into probably pick four,
pick five, to try to get a quarterback JJ McCarthy.
But okay, but that's not easy either. Giants might want
that pick. Titans might want to go there, Broncos might
(24:56):
want to go there, Raiders might want to go there.
Even the Jets who are close by, they may want
to go there too. So I think there's I think
it's gonna be much harder for the Vikings to get
up into position to take JJ McCarthy if they like
him at all, which we don't even know that either.
Then most people seem to think it's going to be
So that's not the angle I would use to bet
(25:19):
the Vikings in this draft.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
Okay, so then lay out how you think it's going
to go. If they don't trade up, what position are
they going to go with at number eleven.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
I don't believe that's going to be an offensive position.
I do believe the Vikings will pick out of their
natural position at eleven or maybe even move down. So
know this, after the Vikings will have the two first
round picks, they don't pick again for eighty five picks,
and so there's a lot of reason to move down up.
They already moved up in this draft, but they just
may have just liked that deal. There's a chance they
(25:51):
could move back, including at eleven. But if they hold it,
eleven almost certainly going to address defense. This team basically
does not have a starting defensive end or cornerback on
roster right now, so they are really desperate for those spots. Now,
based on who's going to be available, they might get
their pick at eleven, their pickup defensive ends. I mean,
there's a chance Dallas Turner hasn't gone.
Speaker 5 (26:13):
At that point.
Speaker 2 (26:14):
And if it's not Dallas Dallas Turner, perhaps it's Jared
Verser Layatu Latu, which would be fun for all of
us that just want to save Layoutu Latu's name for
them for years to come, which would be great. So
that's how I believe this is most the probability is
that it will it will fall that way from Minnesota
at eleven.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
No, this is wild. Okay. So what if McCarthy's on
the board at number eleven.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Well, then they'd go McCarthy. Okay, Okay, Yeah, So I
mean to be clear, if McCarthy's there, and I'm assuming
that that they like him enough to take him in
that spot, which I don't know that to be the case.
But what I don't think they're gonna do is make
the big move that everybody projects them to to move
into range to go get him at four or five,
which is going to cost them first rounder, first rounder,
(26:58):
first round or second rounder maybe more. That's I think
that's just I think that's going to be too expensive
to make that move.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
So you're calling this like a likely scenario here where
the Vikings stay put or trade back and if they
go number eleven it's gonna be defense. Then they're currently
holding pick number twenty three, right do they go quarterback
at that point?
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Now it gets really interesting Michael Pennix I believe will
be there at pick twenty three, and that's why I'm
interested in Pennix to draft. To end up with the Vikings.
You can get that at plus four seventy. Those are
nice odds for a team that is going to have
two cracks at Michael Pennix eleven and twenty three, or
maybe they could move back on eleven as well, so
(27:40):
they could dump that thing back to eighteen whatever, so
they'll have two cracks at Pennix. And that's where I
think it gets a lot marginting cause the don't have
to pay anything to make that move, and you can
convince yourself that Pennix is worth a first round pick.
I don't like him as a first round pick, but
you can convince others do You can convince yourself that
Pennock is worth a move there. Vikings have a very
(28:02):
nice spot to end up with a quarterback in terms
of you know who's around you, justin Jefferson, presumably Jordan Addison, TJ.
Hockinson will come back off the knee injury, bookend tackles
in place. I mean, it's a nice spot to drop
a rookie quarterback into.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
If you need to.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
So I like, I like Pennis to end up as
a Viking much more I like McCarthy and you get
the two cracks at him and you get plus four seventy.
Speaker 4 (28:25):
Well, so you talk about moving back. Could it be
a situation where they move back from twenty three, like
for example, when you look at the order overall, and
this is very specific, but you know in the second
round the Caroline Panthers, I think of the first pick
of the second round. Could you do something like that
where you move yourself back at the front of the
second round and go get Penis or do you think
that would be twenty three is going to be the pick.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
No, I absolutely could move back from twenty three and
still get them. And you know, it may be that
maybe they try to keep him in the in the
first round so you get that fifty year option whatever.
I you know, maybe it's something like that. But yes,
moving back from twenty three and still getting Pennix is
in play here as well. So that's another pathway to
get Penix on this team plus four seventy.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
I love this conversation. Our guest Paul Chargi and Kfan
Radio in Minneapolis Fantasy Football Hall of Famergue Team leagues
dot Com here in the Progressive guest line. So you
said that you don't like Pennix there some may like him.
The Vikings like him enough. Do you know that at all?
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Don't know?
Speaker 2 (29:18):
You know, I really I don't. I don't have any
intel that gives me names and evaluations of players, so
I can't say that. So you know, we're there's some
conjecture here, But quarterback needy teams, you know, the temptation
to reach is pretty high. So you know we've seen
it time and time again. You know, Kenny Pickett Will
loves last year Kenny Pickett prior to that Desmond Ritter,
(29:41):
you know. So I just I still feel like there's
a viable pathway at plus four seventy.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
I like those on charge. What do you make of
the Vikings win total next year, which is around six
and a half.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
I'm sitting I like the under on that we at
this time. Well, last August we talked about the win
total for the Vikings and I urged under and and
we hit that. But you know we also needed cousins
to go. But this team. The important thing to know
about the Vikings one, you know they're gonna have either
Sam Darnold at a quarterback or they're gonna have some
rookie that's going to be, you know, playing for the
first time in his life. But also because the Vikings
(30:14):
have missed so badly on their last two drafts, this
is a team that does not have an injection of
young talent on it, and the divisions become so much harder.
The Vikings look like a one win team in its division,
so I'd give it based on the odds right now,
which I believe is sitting at a round minus one
(30:35):
ten to go under six and a half wins. I'd
take the under right now.
Speaker 1 (30:38):
All right, how about a team in their division, in fact,
they won it last year and almost went to the
super Bowl. At Detroy Lions. You have a couple of
what I think are really good angles here with their
first overall pick. What do you got?
Speaker 2 (30:50):
I'm gonna give you two plays, and I would I'd
put them back together, back and back. The Lions are
really complete roster except in their secondary, where they got
just ruled last year. We're gonna look at two things.
One is cornerback, which only played pays plus plus one
forty as the first player drafted from the Lions. But
there's also plus four thousand at safety, another position of
(31:13):
need for them. Let's talk it through for a second
for all the things that Detroit did so well to
get you right to the door of the Super Bowl.
They ranked thirtieth in pass defense by Pro Football Focus
in division. They got to face Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison,
DJ Moore, likely Roma's Adunesa if you think he's going
to go to the Bears, which I do. And the
Packers have got the promising young receivers, I mean, they
(31:36):
just have to get better in pass defense. Last year
they hit on Brian Branch and so you might be thinking,
like Detroit really going to go back to the well again.
But they were so bad at in their secondary last year.
They punted the entire position in the offseason except Branch.
They brought in a couple of veterans of Meek Robertson,
Carlton Davis unclear if they're really that great, and where
(31:57):
Detroit is drafting, you know, twenty ninth pick. It's right
when Cooper Dejene from Iowa could hit kouol Aid McKinstry
could hit Enus Rakestraw could hit those are your plus
one forties at cornerback.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
If you like.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Safety, they've got to replace Kirby Joseph, who last year
finished is the ninety third ranked safety by Pro Football Focus,
so they could This is when the safety position starts.
A kick in is right around pick twenty nine. Tyler Nuban,
Jayden Hicks, Javon Bullard, those guys could go there. So
I like the combo platter of cornerback at plus one
(32:30):
forty and that plus four thousand for a safety pick
for the Lions as their first player drafted. Really tempting.
Speaker 1 (32:37):
I'm on it. This conversation flew by my guy. I
could talk to you for Donald already. It's gone. We're done.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Well.
Speaker 4 (32:43):
The best part is you're saying a lot of stuff
that people aren't, which is.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
I love yes, you also like to you you want
to hang out for a couple of minutes or no,
yes you do. Okay, So Hank tight Chucks, you're going
to come back with us because he has another bomb
that he likes in the top ten. We're talking around
thirty five to one, and he thinks this guy's going
to go in the top five at plus money as well.
You're exactly right, JBT. This is why I think it's refreshing.
(33:08):
Everybody else has the Vikings treading up. Chargers like hold
on not going to be that easy, So find out
what else charge likes coming up here and follow the money.
It's vs V Sports Betting Network.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
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(33:58):
on DraftKings.
Speaker 5 (33:59):
The crown is yours.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
We continue here with Paul Charci and he is on
the Progressive guest Line Fantasy Football Hall of Famer Kfan
Radio in Minneapolis. SHAVT, What did you see that you
wanted to throw at charts regarding that Texans Vikings trade.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Yeah, I want to give your thoughts if you had
any intel on this, So I think I was listening
to I want to say it was Pro Football Focus,
and they were mentioning that there was some scuttle but
that when it came to the trade that Minnesota and
Houston had done to get that second first round pick,
that it was actually Houston that initiated conversations. There is
there any truth to that, because that does shape right,
like getting this and your thought about going up to
move it, like it doesn't necessarily mean that they went
(34:35):
out there got the second round pick to move up.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
That's exactly right. I saw the same report and that
said the same thing, and I think I think it
further solidifies why I would not be putting my money
on the Vikings us necessarily moving up. They didn't move
into that get that second first rounder to package and
move up. Houston approached them, though it wasn't like the
Vikings felt like they needed it. And my understanding is
(35:00):
the Texans approached them and they just looked at their
their value chart in this draft and went, you know what,
it makes sense, So it was not like the Bikings
initiated that to move up, and then you know, just
it mildly changes the conversation a little bit, and it
does filter in a little bit to why I don't
think that part of why I don't think this team's
going to go get JJ McCarthy or move up into
position four or five to put themselves in a position
(35:22):
to get a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
You know what, here's the prediction. Then if you're right
with all of this charge and they don't trade up,
you know what the reaction is going to be next
Thursday night on the draft. People are going to be stunned. Meanwhile,
you're going to be city back going why are you stunned?
This was not going to happen in the first It's
very difficult to do what people just automatically speculated was
going to happen.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
Yeah, and I'll be working the Vikings official draft party
at us Bank Stadium in front of you know, like
ten thousand fans, and if one of these isn't a quarterback,
it's going to be a restless crowd. But I think
I think there's a good chance of that. Or it's
Michael Pennix probably it picked twenty three or via a
trade back.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
Who do you like at plusids to go in the
tip five?
Speaker 2 (36:01):
So all right, I want to let's talk that through.
We already mentioned the top three picks are going to
be quarterbacks, and it's probably going to stay with Chicago, Washington,
New England. That makes sense. The next two, two teams
that are desperate at wide receiver, are looking right at
two of the best wide receiver prospects that we've had
in years, Marvin Harrison and Melik Neighbors. Now Harrison's not
even in this conversation. The odds for him are not
(36:22):
good going in the top five. Harrison is minus twelve
hundred to go in the top five, Melik Neighbors plus
one fifty. I mean, this is like a seven x
delta on your return here. If I'm doing the math right,
maybe it's more than that seven times odds better on Neighbors.
But many people think Neighbors it's going to go before
(36:43):
Marvin Harrison, that they're so close that if some teams
like this, the particular skill set you get with Neighbors more,
he could even go before Harrison. But he doesn't even
have to go before Harrison.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
For this to hit.
Speaker 2 (36:54):
You know, the probability is Arizona at four takes Harrison,
and then the Chargers at five take Neighbors, and bang,
you just went plus one fifty. Now pick five again, Chargers,
they traded away, remember Keenan Allen. They let Mike Williams
go LA's current wideouts Mitch and Jonathan, Quinton Johnston, Josh
Palmer rolling into Shemp, Howard Oprah, Winfrey's longtime boyfriend Steedman,
(37:19):
and then six cans of easyg's which for legal reasons
cannot be spelled cch E s E. They they've got
to take a wide receiver. And by the way, and
I think that's all the reason why they don't trade
down with like the Vikings to go get a quarterback
is these are receiver desperate teams that are staring at
potential Hall of Fame level guys. So I don't think
I don't think they're moving. And I like the leak
(37:40):
Neighbors to be in the top five at plus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (37:43):
So it doesn't sound to me like you're very concerned
at all with Jim Harbaugh's comments about offensive line and
how important that is.
Speaker 2 (37:51):
No, I guess you know. I just don't think you
let somebody like Neighbors get by you as particularly when
you're starting that group of receivers.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
Okay, and how important you think top thirty, it's all
right because by all accounts they haven't had a top
thirty visit with one of these offensive lineman the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
That is now all the time you end up seeing,
you know, player gets drafted. Media asks you know, was
this team on your radar? No, we never had any contact.
You know, we barely talked. So now that doesn't that work.
Doesn't worry me too much.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Okay, you you really want to get nuts with the
Titans picking at number seven. All the Titan there's been
offensive line that's a huge favorite of minus three dollars. Now.
The GM and the coach, they were talking in the
offseason about adding playmakers, maybe targeting the draft. They did
that in the offseason though obviously and wide receiver was
the second shot on the board. You're not looking at
either one of those. You want to go really far
(38:37):
down the board.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
Why because we have an amazing value opportunity with the Titans.
They pick it seven right now, which they could hold,
but they could also move up a little bit down
a little bit from seven to take a quarterback at
plus three thousand and five hundred for the Titans to
take a quarterback, and you might be thinking, well charge, wait, wait, wait,
(38:59):
they just after Will Levis. How about a little reminder
on Will Levis. I mean, and by the way, brand
new coaching staff that is not married to Will Levis.
So let's just recap little Will Levis from last year.
He has his big debut game Week eight against Atlanta,
and he throws four touchdowns in that game. You guys
know how many touchdowns he threw the rest of the year.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
After Week eight, I'm going to say the number is
shorter than four.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
Four four, Okay, he threw for the rest of the year.
Pro Football Focus ranked Will Levis forty third in passing,
behind Easton Stick, Drew Locke, Tommy DeVito, and Mason Rudolph.
He was spraying the ball around the field at a
fifty seven percent completion rate. Will Levis ranked dead last
(39:46):
in completion rate among NFL quarterbacks, worse than Bailey's Appy,
Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and a dozen other non functional
NFL backups who found their way out of the field
last year. Like Levis, your general manager Joe Robinson is
on thin ice. He just can his entire coaching staff.
He knows that he's got to do something to get
the quarterback position squared away, because he's got a run
(40:07):
out of scapegoats because he just fired all the scapegoats.
You know, you can't turn around and fire this coaching
staff too. So how do you How do gms keep
their jobs? They do it by finding franchise quarterbacks. Titans
are i think, much more likely to go quarterback than
the odds would suggest. Plus three thousand, five hundred for
the Titans to not double down on Will Levis, who
(40:28):
looked bad last year, I'm interested in that.
Speaker 4 (40:31):
I think makes sense. I mean, we see well because
we also, I mean we've seen teams in the past, right,
which is charged like it's kind of easy to move
on from these quarterbacks. You only spent the thirty fourth
overall pick on Lewis, so it's not like you're heavily
invested in him from a draft capitol standpoint.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
Right, And you know, are you gonna do what the
Falcons did last year and what the Steelers did last
year and take a not a non functional young quarterback
and go, you know what, We're going to double down
one more year. That's how people lose jobs, and that's
how the Falcons offensive Falcons coach staff got blown out.
Steelers had to make a move off of Kenny Pickett.
They tried another season for him because he had been
(41:06):
a first round pick, you know, or maybe you could
be Joe Robinson in Tennessee and just go, Okay, we
tried Will Loves It didn't work, and you know, we're
going to go with another quarterback. And by the way,
it's not like Will Loves dies. I mean, if it
turns out he's great in year two, he's still on
your roster and you can still start him.
Speaker 1 (41:22):
You love chaos, You love anarchy.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Don't you. Well at plus three thy five hundred, now
I start to get real interested in chaos.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
Well, I'm just I'm trying to envision what the again,
what the reaction is going to be live during the draft.
If you're right about everything, if all of this stuff happens,
people are going to be losing their minds. By the way,
JBT has been chirping to me, we only a couple
of minutes left here. I don't know what this fallout?
What is this? I'm guessing that you love it? Is
(41:52):
it worth watching?
Speaker 4 (41:53):
School in Charge?
Speaker 5 (41:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Go ahead?
Speaker 3 (41:54):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (41:55):
So you know.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Followed is a is a thirty year old series of
video games started like Top Down, Point and Click turned
into an action narrative. It's post apocalyptic, it's set two
hundred ish years after bombs dropped in what is a
roughly like nineteen fifties America, and the video games have
been great. I've only seen one episode of it so far.
(42:18):
The production quality is unbelievable. There's tons of fans service
in it if you want it, but you don't need it,
you know, tons of callbacks to the video games and
big moments and stuff. Acting looks pretty good, story is good,
and the world that they've built has always been a
fascinating blend of retro fifties and futuristic you know, robotics
(42:38):
and stuff, and it's it looks good. I think followed
on Amazon. I mean, you don't have to like video games.
My wife doesn't know anything about the video games. So
you enjoyed the pilot, So yeah, I think it certainly
worth dabbling in if you like science fiction.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
What's the best show on TV that you're watching right now?
Speaker 2 (42:53):
Showgun for sure, Showgun's fantastic. Okay, Feudal Japan British guy
and Feudal Japan who drops into a war between the
Portuguese and himself with the Catholics and the Protestants, and
a rise to power in Japan is feuding, feuding families
or trying to gain power, and this American somehow finds
himself in the middle of it. Very well acted, very authentic,
(43:17):
and a great story if you like the Game of
Thrones level of machinations to see who's going to get
come out on top among warring families. Showgun on AMC. Fantastic.
Speaker 4 (43:27):
Didn't Tom Cruise already do that with the last Samurai?
Speaker 1 (43:32):
All right, you can follow Paul Charchian on X He's
at Paul Charchian. We talked to him every single week
during the football season. That was a great half an
hour man. But every time he come on, it's like
minus ten thousand. It's going to be great. So thank
you so much for the time.
Speaker 2 (43:45):
Thank you, my friends. All Right, we'll talk soon.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
Go by.
Speaker 1 (43:47):
Yeah, there you go. I want everything he joined us
on the Progressive guest line. I want everything that he
just said to happen next Thursday, that it'd be great.
Speaker 4 (43:53):
I mean, the Titans angle is actually a really smart
one too when you look at it.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
The Vikings angle.
Speaker 4 (43:57):
JJ McCarthy, can we give JJ McCarthy to or to
Tennessee odds.
Speaker 1 (44:02):
Yeah, you can probably find that, actually, in fact will
shop around top of the Hour next
Speaker 3 (44:08):
H
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