Follow the Money | April 17, 2024 | Hour 3

In hour three of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and JVT preview Wednesday's NBA play in games, reveal their in picket plays, and are joined by Dylan Sullivan to preview the NFL draft props.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Follow the Money. That's what I always say, you always follow.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Paully Howard on Vson.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in. It is Follow the Money. This show is
brought to you by Draft Kings Mitch Moss along with
Jonathan von Cobbel, who was filling in for Paul Howard. Paul,
he's on vacation this week. One correction, as a Paul charge,
he and joined us for the previous half an hour.
He was running down he was awesome and what he
thinks the Vikings are going to do in the draft.
It's not to move up to take a quarterback. If
you missed any of it, you can go back and

(00:30):
search Follow the Money wherever you get you your podcast.
One correction though, is that Robinson is no longer the
GM in Tennessee. It's Ran Carthon who's the new GM.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
Yes, and he did draft Will Levis now having said
that we have seen gms move on from guys pretty easily.
When you're talking about a third or fourth overall pick,
it's easier to move on from them. So it's still
a reality, but very much worth correcting. It is.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
It is the Arizona Cardinals went back to back quarterbacks
in the first round.

Speaker 3 (00:57):
YEP, A couple of years ago, the rose in one.
I thought he was going to be Yet Matt Euman
still makes fun of me this day.

Speaker 4 (01:02):
How about the.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Story that came out today on ESPN with Bill Belichick.
There's something that was seth Wickersham and Jeremy Fowler wrote
at ESPN dot com called quote voted off the island.
So the Falcons did not rank Bill Belichick in their

(01:24):
top three candidates this year.

Speaker 3 (01:27):
Yeah, they had the so they had decision makers all
rank their top candidates to decide who was going to
get the job, And of the top decision makers, Belichick
did not finish in anyone's top three.

Speaker 1 (01:37):
Okay, now, this is also in the story quote Robert
Kraft called Arthur Blank to warn him not to trust
Bill Belichick. Craft was a big part of why the
Falcons passed on hiring Belichick. Craft found Bill to be
extremely difficult. He was stubborn, not trustworthy, and extraordinarily arrogant.

(02:05):
That's in the story at ESPN right now, Actually, that
sounds very strong. I don't know why I said quote.
Nobody was saying. That's actually in the story those are
very strong opinions to share. But is any of that
really surprising to you That those comments that Craft would
actually have about Belichick, Probably not surprising, but maybe the
fact that he shared them with another owner in the

(02:27):
NFL that might be the part that's a little surprising.

Speaker 3 (02:30):
Sure, especially when you know that Belichick's up for the job,
which you could really obviously and it did. It seems,
at least according to this piece, greatly affect the chances
of him getting hired. In fact, they even go on
to say in the piece that was one of the
main reasons why I.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
Would imagine right when you get that from the horse's mouth.

Speaker 4 (02:45):
Now, and I'll say too when you read it, this
is part of it.

Speaker 3 (02:49):
A Falcon source a quote Blank likes coaches who feel
like part of the family, and it wasn't going to
be that way with Bill. If you're making hiring decisions
on whether or not it's warm and fuzzy, I do
think that's a flaw in the process. Consider the job
that you're hiring for and whatnot. And look, sometimes people
are good at their jobs, so they can be a
little bit of cantankerous. But the fact that you get
that dynamic of clearly there was some kind of falling

(03:09):
out to a degree between Craft and Belichick, and then
he immediately turns around when he's looking for a job,
which is surprising too, because one of the part of
the speculation that we all had, least general we was
Mitch that like, are you gonna let Belichick come in
and take control of this franchise like he did with
New England? By all accounts to beginning to piece he
had told that Atlanta, I don't want that. I'll work
with your front office. I'll do whatever you guys want

(03:30):
to do. I just want to come in and be
the coach. So then for Craft to come back and
just just kind of, you know, mother f of the
guy that would extend after he's done, it's kind of shocking.

Speaker 1 (03:38):
One of my most hated things in all of sports
media or a sports discussion today. I can't believe we're
still having Lebron versus MJ stuff. Yes, Like, what's the point.
It's been going on for ten years enough already.

Speaker 4 (03:52):
Right.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
The other one is the idea that it was all
Brady in New England and not Belichick. So if the
owner Robert Kraft is going to undress him to another
owner in the league and basically eviscerate the guy. Can
you also point out, oh, by the way, yeah he's arrogant,
he was a jerk. He stuff to deal with. I
got to tell you, he was an unbelievable coach.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
What's the most underrated part about like these last few
years of Belichick the fact that what he was getting
out of those defenses the last couple of years, they
were great. He took mac Jones to the playoffs that
first year they had won. I think they had won
like covered games going into that thing. It was incredible
what he was able to do. So, like that's always
been my thing too. Is just I don't think there's

(04:33):
any question he could coach. It's just he can't. He
can't be a GM. He can't make decisions when it
comes to roster decisions personnel, Like we've seen it for
a long time. We saw it at the offensive end
for a really long time. He couldn't pick a wide
receiver save his life. But the rest of it, you know,
there's there's definitely more he can offer. I'd be fascinated
to see if he gives another go next offseason when
there's a job that opens up.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
I think he probably will beyond that. Who knows, because
then he's going to be, you know, aging and getting
into his mid seventies at some point. They ran the
football the entire game. In that one win against the Bills,
they threw the ball three times and they won the game.
How was that for a game plan? How about throwout
the over the years and the way that that guy

(05:12):
knew the rule book and other coaches did not when
Harbaugh and the Ravens were befuddled when he did something
with like an unbalanced line in the playoffs and caught
him off guard and they were iright not It's in
the rules, pal, I can do that. It's legal. That guy.
The defensive game plans that he would come up with
absolutely genius. And I tell this to people all the time.
Oh you think it was all Brady Belichick and nothing

(05:33):
to do with that. Okay, Here's what I want you
to do in your head. I want you to think
about what the Packers would have looked like with Bill
Belichick as their head coach, with Aaron Rodgers for the
last fifteen years, and what Tom Brady would have looked
like with Big Mike McCarthy yep, flip those coaches tell
me how it would have gone.

Speaker 3 (05:47):
I mean, go back to one of the things that
he deserves a ton of credit for that he also
doesn't get. Go back to one of their last Super Bowls.
Sean mcvagh and the Rams.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
Oh my god, a machine on offense.

Speaker 3 (05:58):
Nobody was stopping them. And then Bill Belichick got two
weeks to get ready for him, and he absolutely suffocated
that three points the entire time. But it was it
was incredible watching that like that, that narrative always it's
almost like the Rudy Gobert thing for me, Like the
narrative that Belichick.

Speaker 4 (06:15):
Couldn't coach was nuts. You just weren't paying attention if
that was the case.

Speaker 1 (06:18):
Yeah, yeah, all right to the NBA here and the
Lakers got the job done last night. It got hairy.
In fact, the game got tied in the fourth quarter
after they had a seventeen point lead on the road
against the Pelicans. They won the game. They're in the playoffs.
They are the seventh seed. Now. Denver opened up as
high as minus four fifty to win the series, and

(06:40):
they were back down immediately. Right when we started the show,
Denver was three to ten minus three ten to win
the series now, and that is the current price against
the Lakers. So the instant reaction was people saying ow
too high of number. Got to take La in the
spot was at an overreaction to them looking good the
last couple of games and Lebron playoff Ron.

Speaker 3 (07:01):
It could be a combination of two things. I think
it's that, and they have looked better down the stretch.
Of course, I think they are the twenty two and
eleven in the last thirty three games something like that. Yeah,
and the schedule has been a little bit weak, But
like they they've looked really good and if you look
at them offensively, they have turned things around. They're different
from where they were last year. They're actually a good
three point shooting team. They don't take a lot of threes,
but they're a good three point shooting team. Oh big

(07:23):
was Russell last night? That Russell was absolutely fantastic. You
actually you got some You got a three or two
from Gabe Vincent.

Speaker 4 (07:29):
You know, he showed up.

Speaker 3 (07:30):
And of course he has not been available for most
of the season because of an injury. So, like, I
think this Lakers team is better. I don't think there's
really any question. The problem you run into is when
you when you steer more into the offense like they did,
and you play some weaker perimeter defenders, that's where you're
going to get yourself into trouble. You know your perimeter
defense is not as good. So are you going to

(07:50):
be able to stop Jamal Murray when he's running these
pick and rolls with Nikola Jokic? What is your game
plan for Jokic? You go back to those Western Conference finals.
You know they've seen it since and before too, but
it's been a little bit more prevalent where they decided
let's try Ruya Hachimura on Nikol Yokich and let's have
Anthony Davis as a roving defender to try to come
in and help and contest shots that didn't work. Yokich

(08:12):
was awesome. I think you have a a triple double
fifty five percent shooting. Yeah, there's no stopping a guy
like Jokich. So does your bench eventually come in and
potentially win this thing for you? I mean, the bench
didn't really look great yesterday and they got out played
by the Pelicans bench. I just I do wonder how
you just stop Nikl Jokich so what the game plan
is there? They're maybe they're probably more competitive. I know

(08:34):
I made the joke. I set it up that, oh yeah,
they're gonna be way better. They're gonna lose a five
this time around. I think there's a true reality where
you win in six if you're the Denver Nuggets, so
that you're pushed a little bit more here. But the
reality for me is is that the Nuggets are and
this isn't going down a limb because they're three dollars
favorites that they're going to win this series.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
Okay, so I would also come back and say, what
what can you trust out of the Nuggets bench?

Speaker 3 (08:57):
No, I think that's a fair That's why I think
you go back to this being extended out right. It's
a fair criticism.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
I think it's going to be. It's going to come
down to the starting five versus starting five for the
most part, right, and the starting five they were really
good last night for the Lakers. However, the Denver Nuggets
have the best starting five in the Western Conference, and
I think some would argue it's actually better than the
Boss and Celtics. I don't know if I want to
go that far, because the Celtics on paper are like
the twenty seventeen Warriors. But you get my point, right,

(09:22):
So that the starting five for Denver, if they're healthy,
like if Murray is going to be healthy for the
entire playoffs. I just I don't see a team beating
Denver And can the Lakers really win a seven game
series when in theory for them are going to be
have to be played in Denver and at altitude, it's
going to be tough obstacle to overcome.

Speaker 4 (09:44):
Yeah, I think so.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
One of the things that people are immediately going to
point to, and this is this is a fair criticism
right when you look at it, Nikola jokicch this season
just off the floor in general, they're outscored by eleven
point one points per one hundred possessions. They average one
hundred five point six points every one hundred percent offense.

Speaker 4 (10:00):
It's extremely poor.

Speaker 3 (10:01):
However, the ace in the hole here for the Denver
Nuggets is what they've done is you have your Aaron
Gordon at center minutes, which has been very very effective
for them in the past. They did it last year
to offset some of those and when you have Aaron
Gordon at center this year, your offense isn't great, but
a defensive rating a one to five point three if
you're Denver, you still have right a really good weapon
in there that you can kind of offset some of

(10:23):
the negatives right of Nikola Jokic not playing. And that's
what I think you're going to see here to kind
of make sure that your bench is going to be
in position. But to your point, overall, your backcourt is
going to be Regg Jackson, Christian Brown.

Speaker 4 (10:33):
Like what are you going to do there? And with
some of these other guys.

Speaker 3 (10:35):
Peyton Watson has been good at times, but he's still
an untested kind of commodity. They're coming off the bench
of big minutes, and that's why I think you do
get ultimately a little bit more competitive series when it
comes to actual results.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
Nuggets minus one and a half games is minus one
forty That still gets you six right four two Denver
minus two and a half games plus one forty five
sweeper a five games series.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
I think I'd rather lay the one and a half
put you in a little bit of a better position there,
but I think that's more of a reality, and obviously
you still get the sweep in there and everything like that.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
I would not get greedy and go two and a
half games. I would not do that, but.

Speaker 4 (11:13):
We should ask too. Anthony Davis didn't look great yesterday.

Speaker 1 (11:16):
No, No, he looked like he was hurt.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
Yes, right, And that's part of it too, Like if
we had that weird dynamic last year, it was like,
what was it? The odd games of the even games
and the even games he only showed up in, but
he didn't look great. Missus Bundy's around the rim didn't
look as dynamic. Got a great one handed offensive rebound.
But I think that's real question asked to. As you
move into Saturday, now.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
We have impocket plays coming up next. We'll also look
at that number now for the Kings who were swept
by the Pelicans this year on Friday Night, and the
two playing games that we have coming up tonight here
on Vicent.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
The guy has an algorithm to determine the winner of
any given college basketball games.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
Someone gives you ten thousand to one on anything, you
take him, take it.

Speaker 4 (12:13):
About you twenty bucks.

Speaker 1 (12:14):
I can get you gambling before the end of the day,
no way.

Speaker 4 (12:16):
Or give you three to one odes Nope, five.

Speaker 1 (12:18):
To one and you're a maybe t the floor is yours.

Speaker 3 (12:25):
Okay, right, I didn't know what I was supposed to
do there, this is your thing? Yes, Lakers money line
plus what a five winner yesterday?

Speaker 4 (12:31):
Uh, they didn't deserve it.

Speaker 3 (12:33):
Was Syon Williamson. It was absolutely incredible. Leaves the game
with three and a half minutes left on forty points.
Looked like he was going to start to crush this
team and ultimately not on crushing him. Yes, I crush
their hopes they were going to be done, but you
squeaked by. I won't make it an official accusation, but
I do think that maybe there was some that wouldn't

(12:53):
be the worst thing in the world if we lost
this game. Thoughts on the sideline of the It's funny
the point where Austin Reeves throws up the lob to
Anthony Davis right near the end. It's like a minute
left or something like that. Anthony Davis almost looked upset.
He was like, man, we got a There's no way
I can't catch this lob and make this this obvious, Matt.
We got to win this game. So not an official accusation,
but Lakers win. Let's want the five two today. We're

(13:17):
gonna go. We're going hot and heavy. Let's do this thing,
and actually the market is starting to move here. But
Hawks money line plus one thirty versus the Bulls. I
think that the Hawks, I was just gonna win this game.
Good matchup for Atlanta. We get into the details of
that here against Chicago, but I would expect that we're
gonna start see the market move here for the Atlanta
Hawks in this matchup against Chicago and laying it with
the Philadelphia seventy six ers, sorry not buying it. The

(13:39):
heat have been resting on the laurels of a finals
run all season long. Jimmy Butler's starting to do the
media thing talking about nobody wants to see us in
the playoffs. That's right, and they won't because you're not
gonna make it. You'll lose this game and you're gonna
lose to the Atlanta Hawks. Seventy six Ers win. Take
care of business. Six Ers by the way, ten to
one and against the spread. In their last eleven games,

(13:59):
they are six in oh right up and against the
spread with Joel Lebeid the last six since he's been
back thirteen to two and one ats in their last
sixteen Give me Philly.

Speaker 1 (14:08):
Okay, you also have Hawks money line, yes, as you said,
because you think they're going to beat the Heat and
they're round after that. I think there's a good angle here,
and I want the Hawks to make it into the playoffs.
I think the angle because of their defense overall. I'm
really going to be looking at Celtics team totals over
for the first half if they get the Hawks. Yeah,

(14:29):
I really want that to be the one eight matchup.

Speaker 2 (14:31):
Yep.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
And we'll hope that Jalen Johnson is going to be
healthy too, because he's not gonna play here in this game,
but he's a big part of what they do defensively.

Speaker 2 (14:37):
All right.

Speaker 1 (14:38):
So I was with you. I had the Lakers money
line last night plus one oh five. Also, I mean
you say Kakuchi, I had under five and a half.
K's Yankees not striking out a lot at all this year.
They struck out. He struck out the side to begin
that game head nine. Again, he is off to one
hell of a start to the season. Nine more, K's
last night sub two era numbers are absolutely legit. Four

(15:00):
starts end of the year, I'm guessing he's sleeping fourteen
sixteen hours a night. He said that to the media
last year, he's got a average, you know, eleven twelve
hours per night. Otherwise he's not happy so far. So
good to the sleep at home so that was a
winner and Pauli with the winner with Peterborough over two
and a half that exploded late. I think the final

(15:21):
is like four to one or four to two. That
got there and they play again on Saturday. That's like
thirty five and five on the year or something like that. Crazy.
That's like first period runs in NHL from twenty nineteen
all over again. I'm adding one play today in Major
League Baseball. Not a good week so far in MLB.
But the matchup here is Steven Max going for the Cardinals.
Been pretty good so far this year. He's going against

(15:43):
the A's. I don't know what to call the A's.

Speaker 3 (15:46):
I mean, I know what the column I don't know
if we're allowed to say it. I know you're on
many different outlets.

Speaker 1 (15:51):
So Blackburn's going today. He is not allowed to run
at all this year. That will change, YEP, could come today. However,
he is been like really good first five under and
going back couple of years now, the acetrek out more
than thirty two percent of the time. As a side
note against left hand to pick yours so far this
year number one in the league. So it's Matt's versus Blackburn.

(16:12):
I got to go under four and a half here.
It's minus one twenty two. Some books have minus four
or under four. I should say around even money, but
I'm playing the under four and a half at minus
one twenty two in this spot pending. This is now
a pick them Pacers to win the series plus one
ninety five. I added more and plus one set sixty
five the other day as it was shrinking.

Speaker 4 (16:32):
That's a little extreme.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
I might I might be tempted to come in here
back Milwaukee if I understand driving it down to Obviously,
where you're at is way better than where we're at
right now. You still have Damian Lillard and Chris Middleton
and Bobby Portis I don't know, gonna sit back and away.
Let's see what the market does. Is it even further?

Speaker 2 (16:54):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (16:54):
Reminder, you can check out the betting splits at wissen
dot com. They're free as we speak. Go there, super
pop And we told you yesterday that going into the
play in games the public, they were six and ten
ats and play in games. They were one and one
last night. You can check out the betting splits for
tonight's NBA action when you go to v sin dot com.

(17:15):
So other series prices in the NBA. Boy, the Mavericks
took some money yesterday. Yep, they are up to as
high as I saw. I think higher than minus one forty. No,
really to beat the Clippers at some spots. Is that
getting carried away in your opinion?

Speaker 3 (17:29):
I mean, it's not carried away if somebody out there
knows that Khi Lender is not going to play exactly right,
So if there is some trickle of information that Kawhi
Lend is not going to be available, then sure, I
understand driving this to the point where it's minus one
twenty five, minus one thirty, maybe even minus won forty.
But if Cohi Letdard's playing and the Clippers are trying

(17:50):
to make it seem like they believe that he's going
to be out there for Game one, this price should
not be here. Kawhi Leonard has a long track record
of showing up and turning this thing on in the postseason.
Looked no further than Game one against the Phoenix Suns.
He bamboozled Kevin Durant. He was on him the entire
fourth quarter. That first game was absolutely fantastic. So I

(18:11):
think that if you believe the market and the predictive
nature of this, that hey, the market just thinks that
Kwi Leonard is not going to play, and that's where
we're going here. That makes a ton of sense. The
market has also been wrong and assuming that guys aren't
going to play, and these are more like individual games
regular season wise, and it ends up going in the
other direction. So it all depends on if Kawi is
going to be out there. But I'll tell you this,

(18:31):
just keep the eye on information. Once we get official word,
I'd move to go Bett because they do think there's
going to be some move back here of Kawi's available
for Game one.

Speaker 1 (18:39):
There is a bet. I think I brought this up
in the air on Monday. I asked you if this
is maybe a suitcase bet. At the time, the Mavericks
plus two and a half games was minus four seventy
five plus two and a half games. That has since adjusted. Obviously,
it's going things everything else. The derivative markets are going
to move when the series price moves as well. That's

(18:59):
now minus six point fifty. I did not bet it,
wish I would have. I liked it anyway, but and
I get it. People don't want to lay a big
number like that. Sometimes I think it's okay that was
minus four seventy five. I think the Clippers can win
the series, but I don't think they can do it
even with a healthy Kawhi in five games.

Speaker 3 (19:19):
Well, i'll tell you what gets more interesting for me
is the series total. So now you're talking about five
and a half over minus one ninety five. You know,
is this continues to move if the market does not
believe that this thing is going to happen right for
Kawhi Leonard, if he's not going to be out there,
over five and a half becomes more palatable because again
we're talking about a team that is favored by about

(19:39):
minus only one twenty five and you're looking at five
and a half over minus one ninety five, Like, I
think that's something where again, this is going to be
a competitive series. And I even think if Kawhi doesn't play,
you're still talking about a potential six game series. It's
not like the Clippers have nobody on the roster, so
that's going to be more interesting. And again too, especially
if Kawhi Playsmitch. When you talk about the actual matchups

(20:00):
are gonna be on the floor, you know, everybody keeps
talking about Luka Doncic and the ability to pick on
like each Zoo Botch and whatnot. You know that Kawhi
Ler should be Kyrie Ler, Irving and or Luka Doncic
are going to have to defend one of James Harden,
Paul George or Kawhi Leonard if he's healthy and ready
to go. Like that's just math, right, that's the way
this thing works. So it's gonna be fascinating to see
that it's not this perfect matchup here for the Dallas Mavericks.

(20:22):
And there's this weird like I want to say this,
like the what's what's the term of the sort of
the Mandela effect, right that like, hey, Mavericks owned the Clippers.
Doncic j Oonnes the Clippers, Clippers got no shot. Luka
Doncic is a league record against the Clippers. They have
beat him both times they faced in the postseason. Tylu
has been the head coach for both of those series.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have both done on the
floor for both of those series, so it's of each

(20:43):
a zoo botch like there is there's some continuity I
think that is being ignored here in which the Clippers
have had success against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.

Speaker 1 (20:52):
The market also continues to move on the other playing
game now in the Western Conference King's Pelicans. Pelicans were
five and against Sacramento this year. It's the first time
that happened in the NBA since the mid nineties where
a team was either five and oh you could flip it.
The King's rown five against them. And now because of
the question marks around Zion Williamson getting hurt late last night,

(21:15):
despite us scoring forty against the Lakers, they're don't no.
One point favorite. Now, Yeah, this has moved since the
show started two and a half hours ago.

Speaker 2 (21:22):
Let's see.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
In fact, I think I saw an opener of three
last night, really yeah, which moved instantaneously.

Speaker 3 (21:29):
Yeah, we're so yeah, there's and there's a snattering numbers everywhere.
I'm looking at Pelicans won, Kings one, and then pick
so everything in between. This is just all about whether's
Ion's going to play. And again too, it's about Rands
and Ingram too. The fact that he can't get on
the floor the last seven and a half minutes of
a game that was tied that could get you into
the postseason, that's troubling, I think, yeah, especially and afterwards

(21:50):
the coach comes out and says, yeah, I didn't want
to push it when it came to his you know,
his health and his availability.

Speaker 4 (21:56):
That doesn't sound like a guy who's fully healthy.

Speaker 1 (21:59):
No. It was range to watch last night down the stretch,
right because McCullum was so bad yep in the game
shooting from the floor, and then you're kind of wondering, well,
what's going on. Why have we not seen brandon Ingram
on the court now for a while, And you're looking
and it's like, yeah, he hasn't been in a long time,
never got back into the game. And then just the
cruel world that is for Zion Williamson for him to

(22:21):
hurt the leg again, he's got to leave and he's
got forty on them.

Speaker 3 (22:23):
And especially when in that moment and then those last
few minutes, you're dying for offense and brandon Ingram could
score at least when he is at when he's to
speaking his powers, and you're just like now I'm like
it's okay, all right.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
Dylan Sullivan's going to join the program coming up next,
in charge over the draft props here at Circus Sports.
We'll ask him about their philosophy posting props this year
and how he decided which players to offer odds on
next year. On vison.

Speaker 3 (22:57):
Got the check out the current bettings, let's say, up
on the website of Visaolks. It is free courtesy of DraftKings.
You can check it out now you'd like to use
it as part of handicapping process. It is open to
the public, no pro subscription required. VSA dot com slash splits.

Speaker 1 (23:10):
NFL Draft props here as Dylan Sullivan joins the program.
He's a risk manager here at Circa Sports, in charge
of all of the NFL draft props. Good morning, Dylan,
Good to see you today. How are you.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
I'm good.

Speaker 1 (23:22):
How are you doing really well? That's got to be
a pretty cool feeling that everybody here at the book
and you've been doing this now with the NFL for
a while, but you're the man in charge here at
the props. Pretty cool responsibility to.

Speaker 2 (23:33):
Have, Yes, sir, Yeah, it's been great so far. Actions
flying you know, we got fifty one players over under
a few team props, so yeah, everything's been great so far.

Speaker 1 (23:43):
What was the philosophy here at CIRCA this year posting them,
because it's changed I think right over the years of
when when they were going to get posted, who you
were going to select to put up on the board,
how much you were going to take as a limit,
and you guys, I think just came to the conclusion
that okay, we're going to post a bunch. You were
in charge of picking the players, and then we'll put
a five hundred dollars limit on all the bets.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
Yeah, so a few years ago we've kind of done
this different every year, kind of testing new things out.
So a few years ago we did like one hundred
player over unders a dime limits, So that didn't go
so great for us, So we scaled back over the
past couple of years, and then this year we decided
to try to offer a little bit more, but we're
gonna do nickel limits, try to protect ourselves. And then

(24:24):
we kind of decided to do at least fifty That
was just the general guideline. So I kind of just
went up the list kind of like rankings by position.
I wanted to get a little mix of every type
of position, so quarterback, running back, receiver, corner, edge, so on.
And that's just kind of the amount of guys I
ended up with. If you guys ended up getting cut
at the last second because the ranges were all over

(24:46):
the place. But yeah, that's pretty much how we decided
the list.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
So when you guys have these up, how reactionary are
you to any single bet? And it is the assumption
just if it's a limit bet, there's based on information
because we saw last year, right everybody for had about
the will leveis rerdit posts. It kind of changed everything.
So how do you guys react when it comes to
information on what you're getting on some of these bets
when they're up.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Yeah, everything super reactionary. Like if I'm taking a full
limit bet on something, I'm just moving it to the
point that I'm not earning to it. If these guys
are in the first round, then I might move it,
you know, forty cents and one position kind of depends.
Like the thing about the draft is every position is
different based on like team needs and where teams are slotted.

(25:28):
So if you guys in the first round, and say
twenty five and a half, you might move them to
twenty and a half. You might just move the juice.
If a guy's at one hundred and a half, then
you might move them fifteen spots. So it's different for
every player. But yeah, everything super reactionary. We're just moving
off money for the most part.

Speaker 1 (25:45):
I think there are from when I was tracking it,
and I made a couple of bets the other day
too when you guys first opened up. But when I
was on the app looking at the movement going on,
two guys came to mind. One was Keon Coleman, wide receiver,
Florida State. So I think he opened up. Was it
forty and a half?

Speaker 2 (26:03):
I want to say he was forty eight and a half. Okay,
forty and a half, you know.

Speaker 1 (26:06):
What, It might have been forty and a half. And
then he moved down right away, right and then he
moved back. So when you moved him like eight spots,
was that from one bet limit bet or was that
from multiple limit bets?

Speaker 2 (26:15):
Yeah, that was from one bet, So from one bet,
so one bet could move him a huge percentage of
his total number.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
Another guy, and it was more of a drastic move,
was Wisconsin money back Breylan Allen. I think he moved
thirty five spots maybe in that range. So how many
bets did you take on him before you go were
this was way too low?

Speaker 2 (26:34):
I want to say that was off two bets maybe three,
So yeah, that was a huge jump as well.

Speaker 1 (26:39):
And then when those bets come in, is it one
one right after another?

Speaker 2 (26:42):
Yeah, pretty much like the certain guys that are betting
these right when they opened, they're just hammering away their opinions.
So if I move it and it's not enough, they'll
just rebt it within a minute or two they will.

Speaker 3 (26:54):
Okay, Well, that's kind of the fascinating part about like
I think player props like that, right when you're on the
hundreds or in the seventies, there's no information, right, there's
that information based that's just like I think this guy's
going to go way before that. So it like you
guys have to react to that because of course you're
going to build that money up on there. But at
the same time, from your end, I don't I would
assume you're not too nervous because you don't know what's
going to happen by pick one hundred at this point, right, now.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
Right, Yeah, it's kind of a crapshoot like those ones.
That's like you said, it's not an information based it's
kind of just I'm way off of what that guy
thinks it is, so he's going to bet it based
on his opinion, and we kind of just have to
find a sweet spot.

Speaker 1 (27:29):
So I'll ask you this. Then there's a prop up
on JJ McCarthy, and again you have about fifty players
up on the board. That's a number that you guys
wanted to get to, and you have I think you
originally posted about eighty six props overall in that neighborhood. Anyway,
McCarthy's five and a half. There's been a lot of
steam on him going under in the last month or so.
What if that flips in the next week and these

(27:53):
props in Nevada, by the way, have to be off
the board on Wednesday night, a full night before the
actual draft takes place. What if that turns the other
way and the narrative starts to go nobody's going to
trade up for him, or the interest is just not
there like we thought it was since like February, would
you consider moving because that price point there at five
and a half over plus one forty five. You can't

(28:17):
really move his position that much, right, You just have
to tinker with the jewe some guessing.

Speaker 2 (28:20):
Yeah, especially in those top ten spots, you really don't
want to move the numbers around too much because I mean,
one trade can kind of screw things up a little bit.
But he's if he's gonna go four or five, six,
like that's kind of his range, unless like he slides
a little bit, maybe he goes back into the top ten.
But you really don't want to be moving those numbers
too much.

Speaker 1 (28:41):
It's only gonna be the juice likele like that has
has that been a popular prop by the way, JJ
McCarthy's reposition, It has.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
Been a popular prop. There's a lot of two way
opinion there because a lot of the mans drafts have
teams trading up for him. But obviously I don't think
the Giants or the Cardinals or like the top two
teams that are looking at him. I guess, so it's
kind of trade dependent, and like you said, maybe the
number will move because if it comes out that you know,
those two teams are keyed in on certain other guys,

(29:06):
then maybe he ends up going six or so and
we kind of have to move the number so.

Speaker 3 (29:10):
By extension quarterbacks in the first round was also pretty
fascinating watching it from your perspective.

Speaker 4 (29:15):
I think minus two twenty.

Speaker 3 (29:16):
Five was the opener on the over if I remember
for you guys, somewhere in that range.

Speaker 2 (29:19):
It sounds right, yeah, and then it got bad down.

Speaker 4 (29:22):
So where'd you guys eventually end up?

Speaker 3 (29:23):
Because I thought there was some action on both ends
right once we got to a point, it got bet
back up.

Speaker 2 (29:28):
Yeah. That's been the most popular prop of this draft
by far. So we've moved around and we were at
over minus two twenty five, went all the way down
to over minus one twenty five I think, and right
now I believe we're sitting at minus one eighty five
on the over. So it's it's been all over the place.
That's been the best prop by far.

Speaker 1 (29:44):
That was number one. What's the second most popular prop?

Speaker 2 (29:51):
Probably someone odd like Brian Thomas Junior, Is that right?

Speaker 4 (29:54):
Really?

Speaker 2 (29:54):
Yeah, he's been a good one. I think that seventeen
spot's been like real key for him. So there's been
a lot of people betting right around that range. Another
one that's kind of odd is Spencer rattler, he's like
at eighty eight or ninety in that range. We've gotten
a lot of guys betting both ways on him.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
You do. Have you moved his position much?

Speaker 2 (30:12):
Oh? Yeah, it's been all over the place as it. Yeah,
anywhere between like seventy seven and ninety two, I think.

Speaker 1 (30:17):
Really really Okay, how popular has Michael Pennox been? That
prop thirty two and a half? Just tinkering with the
juice a little bit.

Speaker 2 (30:24):
Yeah, I'm trying not to move that number because he's
really the key guy right now that's going to affect
that quarterbacks over under four and a half. So he's
sitting there at thirty two and a half, like you said,
trying not to move the number, just the juice. But yeah,
he's been another popular one. I think yesterday was a
lot of understeam on him, which kind of correlates with

(30:44):
the four and a half for the quarterbacks. But yeah, Penix,
he's that wild card right now.

Speaker 1 (30:49):
Another one, and I think better's gravitated to this one
right away? Was bo Nix?

Speaker 2 (30:54):
Right?

Speaker 1 (30:54):
Because you opened up thirty two and a half juice
to the over on that and you moved him I
think immediate lead to thirty four and a half.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
Yeah, he's uh, there's not a lot of interest on
him going in the first round. You know, other shops
in town have a version of twenty six and a half.
But we got instant over bets and it seems like
Panics has kind of passed him up as the guy
that has a better chance going in the first round.

Speaker 1 (31:16):
So when you're doing this and coming up with all
these numbers and the players that you're gonna post on
the board, how many mocks do you look at? How
many big boards do you look at? Which guys do
you trust? Because a lot of them there are If
you go to mock draft database on just type that
in and google. This guy tracks every single mock that pops.
There's one hundred of them right from maybe more than

(31:37):
that from people who do it, you know, over and
over and over again. Nix has like consistently been going
twelve overall to the Broncos, and you just say that's
not going to happen, right, Is that basically your theory
on that?

Speaker 2 (31:49):
Yeah? Pretty much. I mean I'm kind of looking at
the market and respecting bets, but other than the Broncos
at twelve, which seems like a reach at this point,
doesn't seem like there's any other team that's really looking
for him in the first round. But to answer your question,
it's kind of a learning experience looking at a bunch
of different mock drafts. I'm really looking to see who
the betters respect the most because I don't have like

(32:09):
a great history with this, so I'm kind of looking
all around. And then every day someone releases a new
mock draft and certain guys will bet off of it.
So I kind of just make a mental note, all right,
they respect this guy, but I couldn't tell you the
number one guy off the top of my head.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
Yeah, I'm guessing that when what Daniel Jeremiah Right does
a new mock yep and people look at the big board,
that's a big deal. And also when Dan Brugler puts
out something like the Beast and the Athletic the other day,
that's how betters are probably going to react to stuff. Right,
would be my guess how.

Speaker 3 (32:40):
Much you pay attention to just for like shows like this,
Because I made the joke Schefter the other day went
on a podcast and told them, yeah, by your Jayden
and Daniels Jerseys.

Speaker 4 (32:48):
Now it was an official report that he comes on yesterday.

Speaker 3 (32:50):
He goes, well, I don't know if that's going to happen, So, like,
how much is that is respond to reacting to information
or is it just for you it's all about what
money's coming in. You're going to only adjust off of that.

Speaker 2 (32:59):
A little bit of both. I definitely want to be
aware of people on shows giving stuff out, so I
know if that's where the money ends up coming from.
But I'm not always just moving straight off of what
they say on TV.

Speaker 1 (33:10):
You know, Yeah, probably not a good idea. Yeah, right,
A lot of hot takes there.

Speaker 2 (33:16):
Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1 (33:16):
It's follow the money here on VS and D Sports
Betty Network.

Speaker 4 (33:19):
Jadan Daniels is the favorite to go one if that
was a kid.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
Yill and Sullivan our guest risk management team here at
CIRCA in charge of all the NFL Draft props. I
want to ask him how the props were received in
Chicago compared to Las Vegas, and we'll get into finally,
Marvin Harrison took some money. Find out which way coming
up next to.

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Speaker 1 (34:13):
All right, we continue here talking NFL Draft props. Dylan Sullivan,
our guests, part of the risk management team here at
CIRCA in charge of all of the draft props. So
when you posted the eighty plus props you have on
the board now at Circa, not only here in Nevada,
but in every other state that you're in. Is Kentucky?
Can you put props up in Kentucky?

Speaker 2 (34:31):
Kentucky's the only state we're not allowed to.

Speaker 4 (34:32):
Be not allowed to.

Speaker 1 (34:33):
Okay, Well, when you put them up two days ago,
how was the action in the first thirty minutes to
an hour?

Speaker 2 (34:41):
First thirty minutes were just NonStop. I couldn't even keep
up with them. I had a guy kind of over
my shoulder, kind of pointing stuff out, Hey, you miss
this one. You missed that one, So yeah, it's we
got double popped on a few of them. But yeah,
after the first thirty minutes, things kind of settle down,
and then you know, every hour or so, guys will
keep making their waves. But first thirty minutes it was
impossible to keep up with.

Speaker 4 (35:02):
I wouldn't be able to do it. It'd be too
nerve wracking really quickly.

Speaker 3 (35:05):
So we have the rule out here, as Mitch mentioned,
twenty four hours before the draft. Will you adhere to
that in all the other markets or how are you
guys gonna handle that in terms of keeping them up
prior to the draft twenty four hours?

Speaker 2 (35:14):
I believe in Nevada and Iowa we have to pull
them twenty four hours. We're waiting on word in the
other state, so that's kind of to be determined.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
How were they received in the Chicago area compared out
here in Las Vegas.

Speaker 2 (35:26):
Oh, it was great. I would say Chicago's probably been
our number two state, or Illinois been our number two state.
As far as draft action.

Speaker 1 (35:33):
Yeah, you have some really cool specific index props up
for the Bears, like, for example, the position of the
bears second pick in the first round.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
Yeah, that's sorry, no, no, go ahead. Yeah, that's been kind
of an intriguing one. It hasn't moved around a whole lot.
I think we've taken some action on Edge d Line
being their second pick. But yeah, it's kind of It's
kind of a good one because you know they're going
to probably take quarterback Caleb Williams number one, and then
that number two pick. There's like two or three different
positions that are kind of all over the place, rumors

(36:05):
of Roman Wilson, Dallas Turner, some sort of edge so
Romano dudes, I should say. But yeah, that one has
gotten some intrigue for sure.

Speaker 1 (36:15):
Well, JBT, there is a world here because wide receiver
I think was minus one seventy when I checked to
be the Bear second pick. This, this possibility does exist
where Harrison, Neighbors and Odunes are all gone by number nine,
right right. I've seen some people this. I don't think
this is going to happen. I've seen some people mock

(36:36):
brock Bauers nine to the Bears.

Speaker 4 (36:40):
Yeah, no, I wouldn't buy that.

Speaker 3 (36:42):
Yeah, I think you'd rather go edge right as opposed
to if you're not gonna get one of those wide receivers.

Speaker 4 (36:46):
It makes sense.

Speaker 3 (36:46):
Also, trading back is a big deal, so you can
do that if the three guys are gone, and then
maybe still get a wide receiver, but it's one of
the later guys if you're trading back there. So I'll
ask you this, you guys, obviously you put these up recently.
How much of the process was looking at the books
that had been up and letting them take shape in
terms of the market and then using that, not of
course one to one, but shaping your own numbers then afterwards.

Speaker 2 (37:09):
Yeah, that's probably the number one thing we're looking at, honestly,
because if I make a guy fifty and other books
have thirty two and a half, I can't hang fifty. Basically,
I want to hang the closest number to what they have,
and if I want to play offense, then I'll force
a bet on the opposite side. But yeah, I still
want to earn as much as possible and be as
close as them as I can.

Speaker 1 (37:29):
Yeah, so you're looking at pretty much every single book
worldwide that you can find to extract as much information
and then post it up here. At CIRCA you finally
saw some money come in on Marvin Harrison. His draft
position here is four and a half. It was a
minus four dollars, but you finally took some money. I
think it was what yesterday on people thinking that he
actually might go over four and a half.

Speaker 2 (37:49):
Yeah. I think the thought there is that the McCarthy
trade gets up to four possibly or the Cardinals trade out,
and you never know what's going to happen after that.
But yeah, we did take some under or some over
money there at the plus money, so I guess we'll
see what happens with him.

Speaker 1 (38:07):
I brought up Rock Bowers. Your position here is eleven
and a half. I've seen twelve and a half on
him as well. It's juice now. This has been going
back a little bit back and forth, so you're getting
good two way money and Bowers I'm guessing.

Speaker 2 (38:17):
Yeah, he's been a popular one for sure. I think
there's some thought that the Jets might take him at ten,
and then he's also a guy that the teams might
be trading up for as well.

Speaker 1 (38:27):
If you had to bet that prop, what would you
do with Brock Bowers?

Speaker 2 (38:32):
I would probably bet the under based on everything that
I've seen, I think, so yeah, but you know, I
haven't bet at myself so far, so okay.

Speaker 1 (38:41):
Some other popular bets that I've seen, it appears as
if Dallas Turner the juice has been moving back and
forth quite a bit on his position at nine and
a half. I thought the whole time, right, I mean,
it seems like Atlanta is going to be the spot
at number eight, but he's juiced to the over nine
and a half.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
Yeah, I think there's some thought that Atlanta might take
it different edge there, So it seems like Over is
the wise guy's side right now. But like you said,
there's been a little bit of two ways, so there
is some support on that under.

Speaker 3 (39:09):
Well, what about you guys do have a headhead as well?
Drake made and Jayden and Daniels, where'd you guys open?

Speaker 4 (39:14):
And what you do?

Speaker 3 (39:14):
You? Have you seen anything here because the assumption is
that Jayden Daniels will be too but I think there's
still an opening for a guy like me to go
ahead of them, still go to.

Speaker 2 (39:23):
I think we opened Jayden Daniels minus two fifty and
I think our first bet was on Daniels and we've
taken some may money since then.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
This one opened up pretty short and we had a
guest done earlier today Paul Chargion, who was making a
case on the opposite side. I bet it based on
what he was saying. But do you recall where you
opened up vikings first pick to be an offensive player.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
I want to say it was minus two hundred something
like that, and now we're up to minus eight hundreds.

Speaker 1 (39:51):
That ballooned up to minus eight hundred. I took a
little plus five seventy five. Earlier this morning, he was
making the case that people are just assuming the Vikings
are going to be the team to trade up and
take JJ McCarthy, and he laid out, this is an
hour or so ago on our show, the reasons why
he doesn't think that's going to happen. And if that

(40:12):
does not happen, he said, if McCarthy falls to number eleven,
the Vikings will take him. But assuming that he's gone,
he thinks they're going to go edge.

Speaker 2 (40:20):
Yeah. I think that's kind of what I thought when
I opened it. But took We took, you know, five
or six, yes, bets on the offense, So I just
kind of listened to the money. But I'm glad to
hear you say that because I would really like you
to win that bet.

Speaker 1 (40:35):
Is that like number the number one bet that you
were pounded on more than anything else.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
Yeah, as far as the team stuff, that was the
biggest run away by mile. Wow.

Speaker 3 (40:42):
So what about a guy like Joe Old because I
think this is pretty fascinating. He seems really solidly in
as the first offensive lineman taken. But you have guys
like Zerline who put out there, like I think there
actually might be a.

Speaker 4 (40:51):
Surprise at offensive line number one.

Speaker 3 (40:53):
Now we thought maybe that means he goes earlier, but
that also could mean he's not the first offensive lineman.
You guys have his drapt position seven and a half
have allciated under did you see anything? Airs you open
that up adequately enough that you didn't see anything on it?
Or what did you see early?

Speaker 2 (41:05):
We've taken some nibbles there, but nothing that's got it
off seven and a half.

Speaker 4 (41:09):
Yeah, okay, all.

Speaker 1 (41:10):
Right, very good. A lot of fun though with this
whole process.

Speaker 2 (41:13):
Yeah, it's been great. Like you say, NonStop action, keeping
me busy. So it's been fun.

Speaker 1 (41:19):
So when you were in charge again of coming up
with the players that you wanted a list, are you
going back and looking at big boards and the positional
rankings and saying, Okay, I can probably pick and choose
from like the top six or seven guys at wide
receiver and there just post a number on them. And
you wanted to do that with pretty much every position
that you could.

Speaker 2 (41:34):
Yeah, to some degree, I think we only have one safety.
Offensive players, I guess they're just more interesting in general,
so more quarterbacks, more receivers. But I wanted a little
bit of every position, and like I just went off
a couple of big boards and picked first three to
ten guys in freeze position.

Speaker 1 (41:49):
Have you noticed that the draft is becoming more popular
every single year for people to bet on, Because we
were talking about this off the air earlier today. If
betting did not exist for the draft, I'm sure we'd
still talk about it, but it wouldn't be nowhere near
as close. You know, it's a gambling network here in
other spots as well, we wouldn't talk about it as

(42:09):
much as we do now. But it's fascinating because of
all these propets that are on the board.

Speaker 2 (42:12):
Yeah, for sure, like NFL Draft, of all drafts, I
think besides MLB, impacts the upcoming season the least so
from a betting standpoint. Without betting on the actual draft itself,
it wouldn't be that great for our space, but yeah,
betting on it. It's kind of gone in and out.
I think two years ago everyone got a little scared
and kind of held back, offered a lot less, and

(42:35):
now it's kind of gaining some more traction, gaining more popularity.

Speaker 4 (42:38):
Has the I'll call on Shenanigans. Has the Shenanigans with.

Speaker 3 (42:41):
The odds for the first overall picks the last few
years and different drafts been a big reason why, Like
we saw the Palabank Carro stuff, we saw some others.
I think was that the National Hockey leaguedraft last year
we saw some movement too. Yeah, in a weird way
for the top pick. Has that is that in the
conversation at all when you're talking about the trepidation of
putting these things up.

Speaker 2 (42:55):
Yeah, it's definitely not encouraging books to offer more. Yeah,
that's sure. Even the Levis thing last year, Yep, he's
what twenty to one to go second overall and someone
gives him out on TV, so then we used to
pick him and then he goes in the second round.
It's just it's a crapshoot.

Speaker 1 (43:09):
Total madness really yeah, yeah, and plus I mean it
is strictly based on information betting this stuff. Right, So
books generally do not do very well with the NFL draft.
A reason why that it's been slow to put up
stuff over the previous years, and why books have admitted
that we don't want to actually book it, you know.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
Right, it's a kind of concession to the players. We're
not really expecting to win a lot of money on this.
Our goal is almost really to break even and offer
a good menu, right.

Speaker 1 (43:34):
And based on how you guys operated here at CIRCA,
my guess is you're probably going to do this every
single year, even though it's not. It's tough to win
for you guys.

Speaker 2 (43:42):
Yeah, I would think so, Like it could change next year.
We might offer more or less. You never know. I
guess we'll just see how this one goes.

Speaker 1 (43:49):
Yeah, yeah, very good. Dylan Sullivan has been our guest here.
He is a risk manager here at Circus Sports, in
charge of all the NFL Draft stuff in NFL a
lot of it in general. Anyway, thanks so much for
coming in today. We really appreciate that.

Speaker 2 (44:01):
All right, thanks for having me on, guys.

Speaker 1 (44:03):
Yep, if you miss any of the show, you can
go back and search Follow the Money wherever you get
your podcasts. Stay tuned. We have other shows coming up
all day long on the network, including Gil Alexander with
a numbers game that's next. You can listen at vsin
dot com. Good luck betting tonight, the

Speaker 4 (44:28):
Eighty two game preseason is in the books.