First Round Preview

JVT runs through each series in the first round of the NBA postseason. How does Denver overcome the injuries in the backcourt? Can Phoenix fix its ailing defense and eliminate the defending champions? Will Miami recreate the magic from the Orlando bubble? All those questions and more are answered!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to the Hardwood Handicappers Podcast. They are a bunch
of guys who have never played the game, and they
never got the girls in high school and they just
want to get today with your host Jonathan von Tobel.
See the thing is, you guys, look at me. You
see the backwards at the gray socks and funky outfit,
and you say, now, this guy's a Chumping'm all right

(00:23):
now only on the vs IN podcast network. All right,
what's up and welcome in. It's another addition to the
Hardwood Handicappers Podcast. I'm your host, Jonathan von Tobel. We
got a lot to get to here today. This is
our NBA First Round Series previews. Go through each and
every single one of the first Round series, preview them

(00:45):
from an analytical standpoint, betting standpoints, see what we can get,
if anything at all, and made two series bets up
to this point. So we'll talk about those as well,
and we'll go through the series in order which I
deem interesting most interesting to least interesting series. And actually
they're all pretty interesting. So you know me, I like
the NBA. I actually I enjoy sports and so you

(01:06):
can really find, I think, interest in almost anything in
terms of sporting events, even if it's a bad baseball
team versus another in the middle of a summer. But regardless,
we have all these playoff rounds set, so let's dive
into these. And I wanted to start out in the
Western Conference. Shocking, I know, Western Conference, I think, actually

(01:26):
I hate to go with the stereotype, but Western Conference
is super intriguing, pretty deep, and it's got some of
the more intriguing series as well. But the one that
I can't get over, let's go with Denver in Portland
three six matchup. Denver opens up as a pick and
the series has really slowly become the one that I
just I can't I cannot wait to watch, right and

(01:46):
we're going to see that one up first, at least
on the first day of the series, being played on Saturday.
So let's take a look at this from a series perspective.
In terms of the series price first and foremost open
minus one ten both side. It's circa peaked at minus
one thirty two on the Portland Trailblazers. That was the
highest line I saw in favor of Portland, plus one

(02:08):
twelve coming back on the Denver Nuggets. Pretty much the
same everywhere else. Consensus wide draftings right now is at
buck twenty two in favor of Portland minus one twenty
minus one thirty. About the consensus on the Portland Trailblazers,
point spent was the only shop off market. They have
a hub out in Denver, so he saw that as
Denver minus one twenty. We addressed a little bit of
this with Chad Andrews in the podcast a couple of

(02:30):
days ago, so it once spent a lot of time
on this because we got a good deep dive from Chad,
but I wanted to give a little bit more of
my perspective because we got a lot from Chad and
that one not that there's anything wrong with that. So
let's start with the obvious, right, because the Portland Trailblazers
clearly have the advantage in their backcourt season McCollum, Damian Lillard.

(02:50):
If you look at the backcourt rotation that you're probably
going to see for the number Nuggets, we're talking about
Monty Morris for Punda Composo, Austin Rivers and potentially Marcus Howard.
He only played like two it are so possessions, but
got some time down the stretch because of course, of
the limitations of Denver's backcourt as the season came to
an end. So if you look down the last few
regular season games, you're gonna see that Mike Malone rolled

(03:11):
out Composito and Rivers in the backcourt a couple of
times together, and the results were really that good at all. Right,
Nugets throughout scored by two points everyone under possessions defensive
rating of one seventeen point four vacunda composes a little
bit small. Austin Rivers, for lack of a better term,
kind of a chucker, right, not an efficient score. They're
gonna be Knights where Austin Rivers can score your forty,
but the Knights where he scores your thirteen on a

(03:33):
three of ten or you know, three or twelve type
of night, Those are gonna happen more often than the
forty point outcomes will. So if you get a starting
backcourt of those two, it's not gonna be great. But
we have to remember that Monte Morris did come back
near the end of the year. He's not healthy, but
he's a better option at least to throw into this

(03:55):
backcourt rotation than an Austin Rivers Composo combination of the
backcourt and when he's been on the floor, you know,
a lot of positive things have happened for the Denver
Nuggets when Monnie Morris is playing, the outscore opponents by
six point four points. Everyone had to possessions offensive rating
one eight, team point three, really great figures. So while
we don't know the true right, I always make the
joke what's the little the street fighter health bar above

(04:17):
above a player's head. I love when people like like, okay, really,
thanks appreciate that. Um, So, we don't know if Monnie
Morris is fully healthy. And I mean, let's be honest,
in any single sport, what's the cliche. All of these
guys are dealing with something at this point, right, It's
a seventy two game season. These these guys just went
through Monte Morris, along with a whole bunch of other

(04:39):
Denver Nuggets, important Trailblazers and Utah you had players on
and on, probably are dealing with a little bit of
an issue. So we don't know if he's fully healthy.
Morris is a much better option in longer stretches if
he can play them than a full combination of Austin
Rivers and Bacuna Composo young Man, Marcus Howard, And then
you look at the again. This isn't to argue that

(05:02):
the Denver Nuggets backcourt situation is better. It's not Little
mccullom's show. The floor Trailblasers outscore opponents by nine point
four points everyone under possessions, offensive rating one point seven,
just a really immense edge that the Portland Trailblazers have.
But I just can't get over the fact that, like
we're forgetting that while the Portland Trailblazers have this edge

(05:23):
with their backcourt, I mean, it's an equal edge for
Denver in the front court. Man like Nikole Yokes, as
we know, it's been absolutely fantastic. He's gonna win Most
Valuable Players this year. They outscore the Nuggets to the
opposition by seven points, everyone hundred possessions. But nikolok Is
in the game. But it's not just Yokis anymore, right,

(05:44):
Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. In that front court. Those
three together have been absolutely fantastic. And it's a large
enough sample size to feel kind of good about the
numbers that you're seeing from these three. So when you
have Michael Porters and your Eron Gordon and Nikolayoka John
the floor together, Denver Nuggets score a hundred twenty two

(06:05):
point four points everyone hundred possessions. They only give up
a hundred and eleven point six. Their offense is efficient,
a crazy efficient, right You're looking at shooting seventy at
the room with those three on the floor, forty seven
point nine percent from mid range, and so working on
the interior inside the arc, this team can really do it.
Porter Junior, of course, stretches the floor out and we'll

(06:28):
see what you get from the contribute and the contributions
should put it that way from your back court pieces.
But this edge just that Portland has in the backcourt
is very much equal to the edge I think at
least then the Nuggets have in the front court, and
so too. To automatically make Denver who's got home court,

(06:48):
and I shouldn't say automatically, but you understand what I'm saying,
to make Denver the underdog here when they arguably have
the best player, they have the best second player, Like
that's that's arguable. But market Porter Junior could be thrown
at that mix, Aaron Gordon could be thrown in that mix.
Over a C. J. McCollum, Michael Porter Jr. One of
the finalists, were most improved. He's been absolutely insane over

(07:09):
the last month and a half of the year. He's
improved defensively, as shown in that defensive rating when all
three of those guys are on the floor together. I mean,
there's a lot to like here about what Denver brings
to the to the table in this front court. And
here's the other thing. Right, not only does Denver have
an advantage in the front court, they have an advantage

(07:31):
in an area in which Portland has kind of struggled
all year long. Right, Portland rings frequency of opponent attempts
at the rim this season, so they're giving up a
lot of shots within four ft of the basket. Six
or four point isn't bad, It's average, right fifteen In
the NBA, they allow opponents to shoot forty two point
eight percent on all mid range shots. And now I

(07:53):
am again I've always preached, you know, if I'm building
a basketball team, right, it is strength at rim, strength
at three point line. I will be analytics nerd that
everybody hates in terms of building their team and strategies.
But if you have you know, on all mid range
shots the nineteen best Marketing League, and now you get
a team that operates a lot in the mid range,

(08:15):
guy like Yo Kids who can operate in mid range.
That's just not something that really bodes well for a
team like the Portland Trailblazers. So you do have these
distinct advantages for both teams. But Denver's advantage plays into
the weaknesses of the Portland Trailblazers statistically. So again going
back to this series prices where you're getting like a
plus one twelve coming back on Denver over at CERCA,

(08:37):
I thought that was that was worth a little bit
of an investment when you look at it from that standpoint.
And here's the other thing, right, because there's obviously more
to this matchup than what we're talking about here. If
you look at this overall. The thing that has always
kind of bothered me with the Portland Trailblazers and might
not it might be something that they might not be
able to take advantage of here, unless you know they

(08:57):
look game plan wise, they'll be able to maybe take
care or something like this. If you remember listening to
my coverage without the entire year, one of my slights
against Denver. Should put it this with one of my
slights against Yokich in the race for m v P
when Harden was still limit. He's the starting center on
the worst rim defense in the NBA, and he still
lives the starting center on the worst room defense in
the NBA. They'ret one percent within four ft of the

(09:20):
basket allowed to opponents. They don't give a lot of
shots at the rim, but when you get there, you
can score. Essentially. The problem is is that while the
dynamic guard plays in favor of Portland, it's not guards
who you know, consistently attack off the bounce. There's a
Portland team twenty third and frequency of attempts at the
rim twenty five and rim shooting. They take the second
most three point attempts per game in the league. There

(09:42):
in fifth and shooting. So it's all about having a
good shooting night for the Portland Trailblazers. And I am
as big of Damian Lillard fan as anybody else, but
Dame Time always seems to forget the junkie elbow jumper
that he just throws up early in the shot clock,
late in you know, late in the fourth quarter, and
then's there's Dame time possessions happen because they're in really
bad situations. So in other words, well, Damian Lilton and

(10:05):
c J. McCullum rams will be fantastic. Clearly from their numbers,
they're not a team that's going to exploit a lot
within four ft of the basket. And Denver this year
has been fine in terms of what it's allowed along
the perimeter right fifteen average to opposing three point shooters overall,
that's gonna be something that you gotta fixed, right, non

(10:26):
corner three point shooting though, thirty five point three percent.
So those above the break threes that the Portland Trail
Blazers love to take, those are gonna be something that
they defend really well throughout the season, and we'll see
if that matchup plays out. The area in which they
really struggle Denver from beyond the arc is at the corners, right,
because you always see this. I brought this up a
lot what we were talking about our evaluation of teams.

(10:48):
If you were listening to the Edge or I don't
know what the hell the show was called when we
were doing it over the summer during the pandemic, but
when we were evaluating these teams, and they talked about
this all the time. Generally you will see a correlation
to port of defense and corner three point shooting, right,
those two kind of go hand in hand. A poor
room defense will also have a poor corner three point
defense because a right relatively simple driving kick, driving kick.

(11:10):
So you'll see guys and see teams just put it
that way that can't defend the rim also have trouble
defending corner threes. Same with Denver defense twenty second corner three, right,
But Portland's not a team that shoots corner three because
they're not a team that attacks the rim. So I
just wonder, like, look, Portland is this is gonna be
a very tight series. Portland's a very good team offensively,

(11:31):
but that the twenty ninth ring defense with a poor
interior against a very good front court. And it does
seem like just reading the tea leaves Will Barton is
going to be back at some point in this series.
So again, looking at the price tech of plus one,
til I just I took a little bit here in Denver.
It is not the most confident series bet I have made. Um,
we'll get to that one a little bit later, but

(11:52):
I think Denver and seven. This is the way that
this thing plays out. So that's the one series bet
I got some one of the series bets I got
so far Denver plus one twelve, I'll go Denver and seven.
Let's move on to the other Western Conference matchup, the
one that I'm also very excited to watch. It get
started on Sunday, Phoenix Suns in Los Angeles Lakers. And
you know, it's funny. I was, actually I felt very complimented.

(12:15):
I was on Paul Howard's show, This William Hill Show
for those who are listening who aren't in the market.
Paul Howard on Friday says, a local radio show out
here sponsored by William Hill. So I fill in every
once in a while. And I was on the other
day and he told me that David Thorpe, who does
a fantastic job. I'm a big fan of Thorpe's work.
Obviously a developmental guy in the world of basketball, very

(12:36):
good in terms of his analysis. Obviously following on Twitter.
By the way, coach Thorpe, I think probably all of
you do over True Hoop, but I guess they had
him on. He was talking about, Hey, you know, watch
out for this Son's defense, and I felt very happy.
It always feels good when a smart person corroborates some
of your thinking. For those of who repoints but weekly,
you'll know what I'm talking about. For those who don't,
you should be dot com slage subscribe. But I wrote

(12:59):
about one of the big piece this week was on
the Phoenix Sun's defense because in the second half it
has been absolutely awful, and I was really surprised because
if you go so for those who don't know, if
you go to Cleaning the Glass, Cleaning glass dot com
is a site I use for all of these numbers
that I generally throw out. Their NBA dot com slash
stats too. They have a really good advanced stats database

(13:20):
and it's all free over at the NBA website Cleaning
the Glass like four night and nine a month. But
some of it is color coded, right, So like for example,
and cleaning the Glass, you know, if you start to
rank like fifteen six, and the lower the number next
to your team, you know next to the stat will
start to turn blue, and so a lot of blue
essentially is a negative, right, A lot of orange is

(13:41):
a positive over at cleaning the Glass. So if you
just pull up the Sun's defense accuracy numbers right, rim defense,
mid range, short, mid range, along, mid range, corner three, nine,
corner three, all three point shooting. There's a lot of
blue this year, man, and I generally thought that, you know,
I was just tracking second half numbers, got lost in
the OS. It'd been a while since I had looked

(14:02):
at the season long numbers for the Phoenix Suns, and
it's not good man. And this is the point of
my piece that in the second half, the Phoenix Suns
have become the team that I kind of expected. From
a defensive standpoint right twenty one and defensive efficiency acquint
y the NBA's website, the rim defense has just completely
fallen off in the second half. On the season, They've

(14:24):
given up sixty five to opposing shooters within four ft
of the basket. How about this, In the second half,
opponents weren't getting to the rim anymore. They actually had
an identical rim frequency, but they were finishing at a
sixty seven point three percent clip progressing massively. Twenty one
defensive efficiency opponent scoring a hundred twelve point five points

(14:46):
everyone hundre possessions. And then you look across the board
for the season long numbers. What did I just talk about,
right with the number nuggets, you got a poor rim defense, Well,
guess what, you're gonna have a poor corner three point defense.
And sure enough rim defense for the Suns this year
twenty corner three point d fence allowed to opposing shooters
really good on non corner threes and above the break
three is actually the third and fifth in the e

(15:09):
fifth and third in those respected categories. But here's the thing.
When you're so bad on the corners and at the rim,
if you were an opposing offense, there's really no need
to jack up those non corner three point shots. So
there's above the break three point shots. Generally, and this
is more observational than anything. Generally, above the break three
point shots are those non assisted three pointers. Right, guys

(15:29):
along the wing, just gets a little bit of a
screen real quick and pulls up with a little bit
of space. That's what you generally see, right, come up
in transition, just pull up real quick shooting above the
break three. Those corner threes are generally because of that
ring penetration. And if you can't stop anybody like the
Suns can't, you're gonna have a poor corners three point defense,
So the Sun struggle in both of those areas. The
Suns have consistently been consistently been the worst transition defense

(15:53):
in the league, their thirty in the NBA in that category.
According to the Cleaning the Glass point opponents at three
point three points to their offensive rating everyone hundred possessions
and the Suns give up a hundred thirt or four
point five points per one plays in transition. So why
this all matters? Well, one, you don't want to regress
defensively as you head into the postseason. But the other

(16:13):
is think about the areas of the floor in which
the Phoenix Suns struggle. Can't protect the rim are awful
in transition nine corner three point shooting. Now the nine
corner three point shooting maybe won't be that big of
a threat against the bad shooting team. I guess what,
you know what the Lakers and Lebron like to do
when they have him out on the floor. They run,
They get out in transition, They attack within four ft

(16:36):
of the basket. They use their size to get into
the into the restricted area. If you're gonna struggle in
these areas of the floor, what is this series going
to look like against Lebron James and Anthony Davis finally
on the floor together, and I guess you know, I'll
throw this out there. Had very respectful conversations with Suns
Twitter last Sunday. I have been like the first half

(16:59):
of the year, I was wrong about Phoenix. They were
very very good. But I wrote about in the NBA
Guide and I was consistent with this is I am
wrong about Phoenix. I said this all year long, and
if you listen to any of my appearances on any
of the shows, I am clearly wrong about Phoenix defensively
at this point. But I did not think they were
going to be this good, and sure enough, this has
finally come to roost where they're just not performing very

(17:21):
well off of live rebounds, are not very good. Like
there's just so many statistics where they've just been very
poor on the defensive end of the floor. They happen
and look, you're gonna look at their season long numbers
and they're gonna you're gonna you're going to see that
they finished within the top ten of defensive efficiency. But
if you look inside some of those numbers, it's going
to be a problem. And the other part about This

(17:43):
is offensively for the Phoenix Suns. They've been very good.
Chris Paul has been fantastic. Their slow paced team works
within the mid range. But if you look at what
they do on offense, they don't get to the rim
at all. Sure they have a high shooting percentage of
the rim, but there are thirty in frequency of rim attempts.
They are fifteenth in terms of three point attempts. They

(18:05):
are twenty six or twenty one, i should say, in
frequency of non corner attempts. But they are third, excuse
sixth in mid range shooting in terms of frequency, fourth
in terms of frequency of long mid range shots. You know,
they're built around two in elite mid range scorers and
Chris Paul and Devin Booker. And in a best of
seven series, I will take the team that can score

(18:26):
at the rim and from beyond the yark, not the
team that is reliant on shooting inefficient jump shots. Now, look,
they're really good. Lead the league in mid rain shooting
this year one percent long bid rain shooting forty six
point six percent. Like they're really good in those areas
of the floor. But over of course, of the best
of seven, if the other teams attack in the rim,

(18:47):
the other teams getting down in transition. If the other
team can potentially Lakers. I don't know if they can,
but if the other team can actually start getting some
shots off in terms of the three point shooting and
start to exploit you from that side, I just think
this is not gonna be a really good series in
a really good matchup for the Phoenix Suns. So I
do think there's value still in that dollar fifty, if
that's still for those who are looking at some of

(19:08):
these series prices, Lakers minus one fifty. You know, I
was texting with Jeff Sherman about this the other day.
My guest was, Lakers mind is two fifty in that series,
and we started to see the correction finally, whereas of
this recording, Lakers are a dollar eighty favorite. It was
really extreme to see that series price dropped the way
that it did, and that's courtesy of draft Kings. By

(19:28):
the way that that series price that was nuts. So
I have this at Lakers and six. We know that
Lebron James and one game definitely a game one deficits right,
oh and one deficits go hand in hand. Maybe he
studies Phoenix. Maybe it's a divisional opponent. He doesn't have to,
but I think I've seen enough from Phoenix defensively, and
he's corroborated what I have thought about them defensively before
the season started, that this is going to be a

(19:51):
series in which Lebron James and the Lakers move on
at six games. All right, we're gonna take our break here,
come back. We have obviously plenty more to get to
in terms of these series two in the books. On
the other side, you look, I think we're kind of
getting a little confused here. The Heat and the Bucks.
They are the same franchises, but they're not the same
teams that they were last year. This is the Hardwood

(20:21):
Handycappers podcast only on the vs IN podcast network. Alright,
So Heat and Bucks very excited about this, very excited
about this is gonna be a lot of fun first series.
We're gonna see it get started on Saturday. So what
do we do with this? I think a lot of people,

(20:42):
and I shouldn't even say a lot of people. I
have heard analysis and I have read things right where
the general consensus and vibe that I get around this
series is Milwaukee better watch out Miami Heat again. But
when I use the line that these are the same
franchises but different teams, it is very true. Right. The
thing that I keep going back to if anybody asked

(21:02):
me about this series, please remember that last year. There
are three very big differences for this series that we're
not in play last year or some war. What everyone
my grammars sometimes it's terrible. You'll understand what I'm saying.
First off, that was played on a neutral court. They

(21:25):
went to the same gym for every single game. All
were in hotels, neutral court setting. You now have travel involved.
You now have home courts involved with however much you
know fan support is going to be at either arena.
There are still now home court involved, whatever degree you
want to measure it to home courts involved. That's one. Two.

(21:48):
The Miami Heat last year were the second best three
point shooting team in the NBA, the second best shot
about thirty eight percent as a team. I was going
through some of the number how about some of these
look at these game one to go through game five.
He's just the total amount of threes that Miami was taken.
Thirty in Game one, forty five in Game two, forty

(22:09):
seven in Game three, forty five in Game four, and
then thirty one in Game five. They shot a hundred
three point attempts. In non garbage time, they shot thirty
seven point eight percent. The first four games of the series.
They shot thirty eight point three on a hundred and
sixty seven attempts. They were really really good three point
shooting team. This year. They're not. They finished nineteen and

(22:36):
three point shooting this year. The Miami Heat did they're
They're shooting has been insanely insanely inconsistent throughout the entire season. Now,
having said that, oh and I should mention the third factor,
and this kind of ties into two. So maybe it's
unfair me to put this out there. Um, Jay Crowder
is not on this team. And while that sounds funny
like Jay Crowder, what does that matter? Jay Crowder lit

(22:59):
the Bucks up last year. If you don't remember what
happened in that bubble, Jake Crowder looked like he couldn't
miss a shot he shot in that series against Milwaukee Bucks,
who was absolutely incredible from beyond the arc. He was
one of the big weapons that took down Miami. So
when you evaluate this series, if your analysis is immediately

(23:19):
you start to go back to what happened in Orlando,
you gotta take that with a grain of sault because
this Miami team is very, very different. Right now, Let's
take a look at a couple of things that when
it comes to Miami, because Miami has been much better
on offense since the All Star Break. They were twelve
and non garbage time offensive efficiency hundred fourteen point two
points everyone hundred possessions. They're shooting was still average, right

(23:41):
they finished sixteenth in the second half and shooting overall
thirty six. But I think a lot of people will
be they'll have a lot of confidence in Miami after
watching the last sixteen games. Over the last sixteen games,
Miami finished twelve and four, and it showed some real
life on offense. Over those sixteen games, defensive rating was
one nineteen point eight in non garbage time, really good.

(24:04):
They shot on thirty four and a half three point
attempts per game. If that version of Miami's offense shows
up in this series, the luck are in trouble. Right
If you've taken in any of my content and you've
heard about Milwaukee, you know exactly what the problem is.
Where I'm going with this Milwaukee from a defensive standpoint,
miss me with the garbage about the switching board, because
whatever they're doing in the regular season caused them to

(24:27):
finish twenty nine and opponent three point shooting caused them
to finish twenty five or lower in both above the
break three point shooting by opponents and corner three point
shooting by opponents. Whatever they are doing, I don't care
if they're switching more. The whole drop, pick and roll
coverage and emphasis on rim defense has still allowed teams
to exploit them from beyond the ark. And if you

(24:47):
look at the past, and if you look at the
series in which the Honest has been eliminated, the Raptors
over the course of their series in the Eastern Conference
final shot thirty seven. I just told you about what
happened with the Heat at thirty seven percent essentially percent
from beyond the arc. This style of defense has gotten
them more often than not. Right, So you can miss

(25:08):
me with that. But which Miami Heat is showing up
is that the Miami Heat team who shot thirty six
percent of the season is probably not gonna be able
to take advantage of that. Or is the Miami Heat
team that shot on thirty four and a half attempts
over the last sixteen games, because that offense shows up
the Milwaukee's got some problems. But here's the thing, and
I said this to E. R. Aaron running on Human
Show on Friday and my guys in the desert, if

(25:28):
you are going to take Miami short sample size spurt
offensively over the last sixteen games as gospel, if you're
gonna tell me that that is the real Miami Heat,
and then you have to give credence to the fact
that the Miami Heat in the final sixteen games of
the regular season gave up a hundred and fourteen point
one points per one possessions defensively, the nineteenth best defensive
writing in the league. They gave up the fifthties attempts

(25:50):
at the hoop, but allowed opponents to shoot seventies three
point three percent in that area of the floor. Like,
those are issues, right, So if you're gonna take the
final sixteen games as gospel offly, you gotta be concerned
about that defense. And that was really surprising to see
Miami in the second half. So when you evaluate Miami,
the inconsistent offense is going to be a pretty big problem.
Maybe moving Tyler herroll off the ball coming off the

(26:11):
bench a little bit more, maybe that changes things a
little bit. Maybe this shooting is a little bit different. Also,
remember the gore and drag which was a machine leading
scorer for this team in the postseason. Is he going
to be able to recreate that for Miami in this
series against the Milwaukee Bucks. And the other thing that
has really bothered me about Miami similar to Milwaukee a

(26:34):
little bit here where Milwaukee's three point shooting in terms
of opponent percentage has been very bad, right, very bad.
Miami has been giving up a lot of three point attempts.
They're still not terrible in terms of opponent three point shooting,
but their perimeter defense has allowed the highest frequency of
attempts from beyond the arc. Opponents are shooting about thirty

(26:55):
seven percent on those shots. And so if you look
at this like across the board, that's kind of interesting, right, Like,
you know, when you give up the most shots from
beyond the yard, but opponents are shooting only about thirty
six percent, to to a certain extent, you're kind of lucky.
But you're taking on a Milwaukee team that is going
to take quite a few three point shots. So how
that plays out for the Heats defense is going to

(27:16):
be really fascinating. But that defense does have one thing,
one thing that they can bring back to the table
here from the series a year ago, even if Jake
Crowd is not out there, I left and that is
the lack of a better term, the wall that has
been built around the Honest in the postseason. The Toronto
Raptors have used it. The Miami Heat used it their

(27:40):
series last year. Miami held the Honest to twenty one
point eight points and average of seven point eight field
goals made per game might seem like really good numbers.
To remember, he finished that season last year twenty nine
and a half and ten point nine makes per game,
So we're talking about about eight points last per game
and about three fewer makes per game. This season averages
twenty point one and ten point three makes. If he
averages anything o to that, Milwaukee is gonna be in trouble.

(28:02):
And the issue is Joannice has not really added much
to his game yet. Right, He's attempting three point shots,
but they're not falling at a consistent right, And if
you look throughout thirty three combined on his jump shots,
mid rain shots and three point shooting thirty percent from
deep Why would you respect his jumper now? So he

(28:24):
is going to see a lot of this wall yet
again against the Miami Heat. The difference from last year
this year Eric Blodsoe is not taking those three point
shots anymore. It's a combination to do holiday right, very
good upgrade Britain Forbes gonna be out there shooter from
this year taking those shots. Still have Chris Middleton like
it's going to be on the new additions here the

(28:44):
new kids on the block. Is that a reference some
people understand to take the pressure off of Janice and
win the Miami Heat are packing the paint, building them all,
allowing them, or should be forcing them. I should put
it that way to respect to the other shooters because
then that series last year, they didn't respect Darry blood Sub,
they didn't respect Chris Middleton and ultimately what happened is

(29:04):
they lost. And so that is what has to happen
in this kind of the series. If the ancillary pieces
around Janice are going to show up from a shooting
perspective and the Heat don't show up like they have
all year long from a shooting perspective, then this is
a series the Bucks can win, and ultimately the sample
size is too large to kind of ignore with the

(29:25):
Miami Heat so as tough as this is, and if
anybody remembers, I was a big heatback or last year,
had the eight one taking on him to win the
whole thing. Loved watching them play, loved watching them get
all the way to the NBA Finals. This is gonna
be a really fun series. I think the Bucks win
a six. I just don't like what I have seen
from Miami throughout the entire year on offense, at the
end of the year, on defense, there's just too many

(29:46):
inconsistencies with this team. There's so many changes from this team.
And here's the last point on this again, as we
talked about series prices, right as I mentioned, there's there's
a ton a ton of different like pieces moving parts
to this series. Bucks minus three oh five Heat plus
two forty on the series price. Remember you were getting

(30:06):
about four to one on the series price in the
Miami Heat last year, and that was on a neutral court.
Now the team is arguably worse, The team has to
travel and you're getting a lower price. It's just not
worth it. From an investment standpoint, So I think the
Bucks move on in six. Unfortunately, it'll be a fun series.
And I say unfortunately because I just I don't know why.
I just I don't enjoy Milwaukee like I like Janice,

(30:27):
like watching Janice play, but I think I'm so annoyed
by their style of play, especially defensively, more and more
so defensively, that I just dislike the team in general.
Like not so much the players, but I just like,
I don't want to see Miami have excume Milakie have success. Whatever.
All right, let's move on. Clippers and heat Clippers and

(30:48):
heat Clippers and maps. Let's go here. Four or five
matchup in the Western Conference. Very exciting, my pick to
make it out of the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Clippers,
a team that has been riding pretty high in the
second half of the season. Yeah, this is gonna be interesting.
And e Er Aaron running throughout that he had it
bet on the under in this game one. And I'm

(31:09):
really intrigued because if you go back to the first
two or you know, the last two games of these
two played. We'll throw out the first one that was
the blowout where they were down. The Clippers by like
a thousand points at halftime. It was on a Sunday.
I remember this well because John Murray over at the
West Gate when I was there watching football that Sunday,
came over to make fun of me, So I remember
it well. But let's let's talk a little bit more

(31:30):
about the two games that we saw between these two
teams mid season, right, because we're talking about like one
oh five finals, like one oh six finals, very low
scoring contest between these two clubs, and a a rematch
of course from the regular season or see me the
postseason l last year. So the Clippers ending the season
one of the best in the league, second half only

(31:51):
second and net rating behind you top out scoring opponents
by eight point four points, everyone hunder possessions sixth and fifth,
an offensive and defensive efficiency respectively. Health has been better.
I'm gonna get pretty much everyone back on the floor
here for this one. And the Mavericks have been one
of the more inconsistent defensive teams in the league in

(32:11):
defensive efficiency point eight points, everyone hundred possessions, and opponent
shooting at the rim sixteenth and above the break three
point shooting. Now, let's dive into this a little bit
more because one of the issues that I have with
the Los Angeles Clippers last year. One of the issues
that I had with Los Angeles Clippers at the beginning

(32:32):
of the year was the lack of a true point
guard right north south, type of guy that can attack consistently,
get within four ft of the basket and either find
guys or Finnish himself. They really lacked that presence and
on the season in terms of frequency of attempts within

(32:52):
four ft of the basket. But here's the thing, second half,
Los Angeles Clippers, different team. They go um bottom half
of the league. Gonna pull the numbers right now. They
go from the bottom of the league, and I shouldn't
even say bottom half, like I'm talking like the very
bottom of the league in terms of we can the
frequency of attempts at the rim to in the NBA.

(33:13):
In the second half, they have made a more concerted
effort to actually attack within four ft in the basket.
They were twenty six in the first half, they were
fifteenth in the second half. Right, So it's much better
in terms of the ability to attack within four ft
of the basket. So you have a team that's attacking
a little bit more against the twenties ranked rim defense.
They're shooting has always been good within four ft. They
just never get there. That is exploitable the fact that

(33:34):
in the second half the Mavericks twenty three best non
corner three point shooting team above the break three point shots.
Clippers don't take a lot, but guess what across the
board first and overall three point shooting first, and non
corner three point shooting first and corner three point shooting.
This team can shoot the lights out from any area
of the floor. They'll be able to exploit that for
the Dallas Mavericks. And when you look at what happened

(33:57):
in the year prior, right, the one thing that Dallas
was able to do consistently was really exploit the defensive
game plan for the Los Angeles Clippers to extend that
game that series of six. By the way, remember the
Clippers actually won that game that series. Just put it
that way, Reggie Jackson playing big minutes defensively against Luca
Done not really gonna happen. Barring health here in this

(34:19):
type of a series, you're probably gonna see more minutes
of Kauai and or Paul George on Luca don Chech
in a series like this. Remember that ridiculous game winner
that he hit was a game two or three in
that series, Like Paul George just allowed Reggie Jackson to
get switched on the Luca don Chech and Johnson was
like hell yeah, and they took him to the left
wing and he hit a three over him. Those are
the other type of things that you're not going to

(34:40):
see from the Los Angeles Clippers in this series. Again,
home court now back involved, So the Clippers are gonna
be playing home land in Dallas. You know, the Mavericks
at the home quarters to as well as we know.
But all of these little factors I think are going
to change the way that this series ultimately comes out. Right,
Paul George is a much better form than he was
a year ago. Kawhi Leonard of course healthy on the floor,

(35:02):
and those two together have an absolutely fantastic from a
net rating perspective when they play together. It's been absolutely
incredible to watch. And look, I think what's interesting about
the Los Angeles Clippers As I'm pulling up the Kauai
and Paul George numbers, I think a lot of the
support for them, like for me, for example, you know,
I've talked about how good they are offensively, their aggression

(35:23):
to the mean. Defensively, for those who don't remember, they
were one of the leaders in terms of tightly contested
shots in the first half, but they were one of
the worst teams in terms of opponent field goal percentage
on those shots that were getting to the spots that
just weren't hitting them. That is regrets to the mean immensely.
So their defense is not anything anywhere near is bad.
But when Paul George into Kawhi Leonard on the floor
together this year plus eighteen point one terms of the
net rating hundred twenty four point three on the offensive

(35:45):
writing only given up a hundred and six point one
point everyone hundred possessions. That is a team that is
going to be able to beat up on the Dallas
Mavericks defense that has been wildly inconsistent this entire year,
especially a speed from beyond the ark. So then you
get the flip side of this, where okay, so what's
gonna happen with the Dallas Mavericks right offensively, Because there's

(36:07):
two sides of the floor, and Dallas is fantastic in
its own right on offense, right on the floor, mavericks
hundred eighteen point three points, everyone hund possessions, shot sixty
at the rim, thirty seven percent from deep, half court offense,
one or four point nine offensive rating with Dan on
the floor, one of the best figures you're gonna see, right,
But they gotta do all of that against the Clippers
team that allow the six us points per one hundred
possessions and should per one hundred plays is the specific

(36:31):
term in half court situations at point one, and Dallas
clearly thrives with Don on the floor, there's no question
about that. But their defense, as we mentioned, is so
inconsistent that even with Don on the floor and those
staggering offensive ratings one eighteen point three per one hundred
possessions one or four point nine at the half court,
guess what net rating only plus three point one. So

(36:56):
like everyone hundred possessions, even with all of those great
offensive numbers, it's still a one possession game. That is
always what has turned me off from Dallas. Because they
ran it back with the seventh seed. Congratulations they got
a five this year, but defense still remains an issue.
I don't really love their center rotation at all. The

(37:21):
Los Angeles Clippers have a small ball lineup that they
can roll out there and still feel confident against anyone
of you know, Max cleiber Christops Prozingis. I just really
like these matchups here for the Los Angeles Clippers, and
finally the last, you know, bugaboo here for the Dallas Mavericks.
With Don John the floor, you're barely outscoring opponents by
three point one point everyone under possessions. When he's off

(37:42):
the floor, your net ratings still positive. Congratulations, it's plus
zero point six, right Like, this is going to be
a problem for any one of these situations that you're
looking at this too. And you know, we can talk
about a lot of the things for the Los Angeles Clippers,
right Paul Georgia Qui Leonard, you can whip at Paul
George on the four quiet letter off the four plus
one five. So if you stagger those minutes to be

(38:04):
pretty good, Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Paul George off
the floor at this point right now, according to Cleaning
the Last, throughout the regular season, los Angeles Clippers a
plus five point five in an offensive rating a one
point three. Right, Like, there's just a little bit more
depth than a little bit more pop here for the
Los Angeles Clippers. When they start to dive into some
of their bench units, now the non Kauai, non Paul

(38:28):
George minutes, there's gonna be a little dangerous. And maybe
we're gonna start to see from Tyler that that's not
really gonna happen, right, that maybe you'll start to dive
in a little bit more and start staggering these guys.
So if that happens, those are gonna be some opportunities
for Don in the Mavericks. But outside of this, there's
so many other statistical advantages for this Clippers team. Matchup
advantages for this Clippers team last year, I thought they

(38:49):
would be able to handle Dallas, and I'm gonna go
back with that same thought Clippers in five here in
this series against the Dallas Mavericks team, a guy like
just gonna steal you a game. Shoot, we saw it
at the end, and we saw it in that series
in Orlando, But I don't know if that's gonna be
the case here. So four series in the books, Let's
go one more before we get to our final three,

(39:10):
the Atlanta Hawks and the New York Knicks. The station
will remain nameless. But the other day I did a
radio hit and the guy baited me into a picking
the New York Knicks in this series. He sounded like
a very big Knicks fan, and he was not happy
when I when I told him I thought the Hawks
would win, which I don't really understand. Like, if you
think something, you think it, like you don't have to

(39:32):
be unhappy about these sort of things. But regardless, all right,
let's talk about it. Nicks for three and no in
the regular season against Atlanta, what gives? Well, I've mentioned
this couple of times. Lloyd Pierce was a coach for
two of them, Bogdon Bogdanovitch missing game, Daniella Gallantari missed two,
and of course, Trey Young was on the floor in
the third quarter with the Hawks nursing an eight point

(39:54):
lead when he goes down with an ankle injury. They
lose that game in overtime. So while the three record
stands for the New York Knicks, there are some nuance
that three and note record that would make you think
mm hmm, like, maybe not the strongest three and not
record won too many ants right committee to the bid
and should know too right the collective. The market has

(40:18):
been wrong about the next seventh best a TS record
in the last thirty years, according to our colleague Ben
Fox one, so clearly undervalued by the market. But I
think once you start to look into this, you realize that, Okay,
the Hawks have some advantages here right under Nate McMillan,
seven and eleven straight up over the final thirty eight games,

(40:38):
plus four point six net rating, eighth best offense in
the league at a hundred seventeen point one points everyone,
hundred possessions, no question. Then Atlanta has been a different
team under McMillan. We'reussell healthier, right with Bogdanovitch, Gallinari back
in the mix, DeAndre Hunter, which is gonna be massive.

(40:59):
But let's start with the Knicks offense, because I think
that's gonna be the biggest problem for New York in
this one regular season. Nick finished twenty four and offensive
efficiency none garbage time minutes, just a hundred and ten points,
seven points, everyone, hundred possessions. Biggest strength three point shooting,
very good, right, actually finished fourth and three point shooting.
You think that would surprise a lot of people if
you were to just generally say, you know, What do
you think about the Knicks offense? Do you think they're

(41:19):
a good shooting team. There's a really good shooting team.
In terms of percentages, they've been absolutely fantastic. Problem with
their three point shooting isn't even really a problem because
it's been very good. Just don't take a lot of
three point shots. Their attempts from deep, that's twenty four
highest frequency in the league, and under McMillan it's actually
been pretty good the Hawks. That limiting opponent attempts, right,

(41:40):
they don't give up a lot within from beyond the arc.
They give up just thirty five point two percent from
deep to opponent opposing shooters, something that is random. The
Nickson probably shoot a little bit better than that, but regardless,
perimeter defense has been really solid under McMillan for the
Atlanta Hawks. And what's what's troubling about the Knicks offense too,
which is why it's been inefficient. It's built around mid
range shooting, but not efficient mid range shooting. Right, New

(42:03):
York takes the seventh most mid range attempts of any
team in the league, the seventh most, but they shoot
just on those shots. Imagine taking the seventh most shots
from an area of the floor, but being one of
the worst in terms of shooting from that like, that's bad.
Being inefficient from an inefficient area of the floor leads
to that offense, and it's why as they are as
low as they are. And the other part of this

(42:25):
which is really worrisome, look that Nicks have been very
good defensively, right the statistics that will get into some
of the numbers behind you too. Julius Randall off the
floor offensive rating one or nine point five, like that's
going to be a problem in those non Julius Randall minutes.
How are you generating your offense? Your defenstill might be
very good, but if your offense goes from one eleven
still night good with Randle on the floor, to one
nine point five, how you generate offense whenever Randall is

(42:48):
resting is going to be I think a very good
challenge against the Atlanta Hawks team. And like I mentioned,
with Hunter being healthy again, they now have the wing
defender to throw on Julius Randall and feel comfortable with
a matchup like that. So the hell is going to
be a pretty big deal here in this one. But
as we know, Nix didn't get here playing offense, right,
they got here playing defense, fourth and nine garbage time

(43:08):
efficiency on defense point four points everyone under possessions no
lower than sixth than any of the major shooting categories.
Defensively and cleaning the glass third best half court defense
to any three point one, sixth most efficient transition defense
point one. Holy crap, how good is this defense? Right?
Series victory clearly through the route of Hey, we're gonna
play defense, We're gonna lock down the Atlanta Hawks. First,

(43:31):
let's start with the perimeter defense though, right, Yes, top
of the league in terms of opponent three point shooting
just thirty three percent from beyond the arc, but thirty
eight point one percent of their opponent attempts have come
from the three point line. Does the strategy of allowing
perimeter shots against your opponent? Right? Does that work against Atlanta,

(43:52):
third best shooting team in the league since McMillan has
taken over at thirty eight point seven If you're going
to allow the same team to take three point shot
to the best of seven series, does that strategy ultimately
work for you against the team like Atlanta, who at
one point will be able to roll out line ups
with five shooters on the floor. I just don't know
if that's going to be the case. Second is rebounding.

(44:15):
Atlanta has been one of the better rebounding teams in
the league all year. They grabbed of their missed attempts
this year. That's the sixth best rate in the NBA.
If New York has a weakness, it's their half court offense.
Their nineteenth and opponent offensive rebounding rate allow opponents to
grab about of their missed attempts. In the second half
of the season, the Knicks were just getting crushed on
the boards. Offensive rebounding twenty, defensive rebounding twenty one, and

(44:37):
overall rebounding rader just the amount of rebounds that are available?
What's your share of grabbing those? Just againy one. The
Hawks finished top ten in all of those categories. So
I have the Knicks with a pretty bad rebounding disadvantage.
It looks like the Knicks, who statistically depends only been
very good, but still allow a lot of perimeter shots.
And the last time I mentioned this, I'm sorry, I

(44:58):
just have to do it. It's just really fascinating, and
I wonder if this regressless to the mean the Knicks
allowed the sixth most wide open three point field goal
attempts this season, but opponent's shot just thirty four point
seven percent on those shots. A team with the ability
to shoot like Atlanta, if they are going to get
wide open looks, they are going to hit them more

(45:20):
often than not over the course of a best of
seven series. So I think ultimately Nick has been very good.
But this Hawks team, to me power raded does the
fourth best in the Eastern Conference. Hawks and six. I
bet him. I got him at minus one looks. I'm
on the right side of the series. Price moved there
because Hawks are now like minus one fifty getting into

(45:42):
that range minus one five and some spots. So I
think the Hawks are gonna eventually win this move on
into the East semifinals. All right, we'll take our final
break here. We got three more series left to go.
That's some boring ones too, and I think we've kind
of saved the worst for last to a certain extent,
because there is an opportunity here for these final three
series to all did sweep serve within five. This is

(46:12):
the Hardwood Handicappers podcast only on the vs IN Podcast network.
All right, let's get into this last three series We'll
start with next in Celtics, because I just don't know
where this goes past five games at the most, right,

(46:33):
and those five games are played because in one of
those contests, Jayson Tatum does what he did against the
Washington Wizards, just goes absolutely not drops fifty points, hits
all seventeen his free throw attempts, and they eke out
of victory over the Brooklyn Nets. But given where they're
at from a roster standpoint without jay Len Brown, given
the issues that they've had defensively all year long, I
just don't know what the Celtics due to extend this

(46:55):
series past that point. Right. Let' let's look at the
regular season series and you we'll start to paint the
picture of what I'm talking about. Nets three no straight
up and against spread against the Celtics this season average
margin of victory fifteen points in the plus sixteen point
five net rating. Really impressive numbers. And what's even more
impressive and scary for people who backed the Celtics and
are Boston fans, are the fact that in those three

(47:17):
games and then Nets, we're never whole. Right, Kyrie Irving
and Kevin Durant of the season opener blew them out
all the way back there in December. Irving had James
when they won in March, and neither Harden nor Durant.
We're on the floor for the thriller at the end
of April, which these nets eventually covered anyway, So the
Celtics couldn't handle this team when there's just two of
the three on the floor. What happens with all three

(47:40):
of them on the floor now, right, Hardened, Durant, Irving
on the floor, outscoring opponents by eleven point one points
everyone hundre possessions, offensive rating one point two, their elite
elite from every area of the floor at the rim
sent mid range attempts fifty two point two percent from
distance thirty nine point seven. That's nuts. That is absolutely

(48:01):
insane on mid range jump shots, is absolutely ridiculous. Offensive
rating and transition the average a point and a half
in transition per playile qualified lineups hundred three point five
points per one place in the half court. Not a
single weakness for Brooklyn here offensively, And you know, I'm

(48:22):
I don't think I'm breaking any ground. But the problem
is when you're Boston, you know, it's almost similar to
when we're talking about Phoenix earlier in this pod where
I was kind of surprised to see the blue as
I was talking about right on cleaning the glass. And
there are statistics defensively, how bad and how below average
this Celtics team has been on defense no higher than sixteenth,

(48:45):
and every major shooting category on defense peror defense massive problem.
Opponents to thirty of their attempts from beyond the arc,
they had thirty seven point six of those attempts, they
were twenty third, and opponent mid range shooting and in
rim defense. And by the way, those are all defensive numbers.
With Jalen Brown playing a majority of the season a
quality wing defender. Now he's not gonna be on the floor.

(49:08):
So you had all these defensive issues for the Boston
Celtics throughout the regular season. Now there's gonna get magnified
even more because Jalen Brown is not gonna be there
for Best of seven series and you're taking on the
Big three for Brooklyn. I just don't know from a
defensive standpoint, what in the world Boston is going to
be able to do against Harden, Irving and Durant As
long as all three of those guys are gonna be
healthy for the series. And again, you know, I keep

(49:31):
playing this game. You know, remember we were kids and
it was like draw the line to the matching thing,
like do me a favor. And as you're reading or
listening to this, like write it down on a piece
of paper, the lineups that you're gonna see for Boston
and Brooklyn, and you just draw me a line to
who's gonna guard Kevin Durant? Is it six seven? Jayson

(49:51):
Tatum Cool, I've got three to four inches on him,
is it six ten? Robert Williams Cool, I've got speed
on him? Right, Like, they're so many different things that
you can potentially throw a Kevin Durant, But who is
really going to guard him on a possession of possession basis?
Marcus Smart? Cool? I think he's listed at like six seven.

(50:12):
He looks like he's six five at times, regardless of
giving up quite a bit there, You're gonna see a
lot of jumpers over a Marcus Smart type matchup. So
that's gonna be a nightmare issue. And then again in
the postseason. I wrote about this the other day at
the top of you know, if you read the series
previews in the postseason matchups get hunted. And you know
who's gonna get hunted on a possession possession basis by

(50:35):
the Brooklyn Nets, Kemba Walker. And so they're gonna put
Kemba Walker in a blender. They have nobody from a
sized perspective to match up with Kevin Durant. So where
this defense is going to come from in terms of
stymying Brooklyn for four games? No shot, sorry, no shot whatsoever.
So then you get to the other end and it's like, well, John,

(50:58):
the Brooklyn Nets are terrible on defense. You're you know,
season long, it was bad on defensive efficiency hundred thirteen
point seven points per one hundred possessions. Half court defense,
real problem pot four points every one hundred plays. Offensive
reving rebounding rate to opponents twenty six point six percent.
And in fact, that's where you kind of get to
the big weakness for Brooklyn, right, hundred eighteen point eight

(51:20):
points per one hundred put back plays this season seven
best mark in the league. Teams that grab offensive boards.
We have a real opportunity to do some damage against Brooklyn,
and Boston can do that. Boston is the second best
half court offensive rebounding team in the league seven percent
of their misses and half court situations they grab sixth
and offensive rebounding rate overall and in fact against the

(51:41):
Nets this season, how about this against the Nets of
the season, the Celtics crushed them. They grabbed thirty of
their misses, fifty eight percent of the available rebounds of
the three games, and it led to them going oh
and three straight up and against spread against the Brooklyn Nets. Right, So, congratulations, Boston,
you can win the rebounding battle, can get a whole
bunch of offensive rebounds, you can probably get some second

(52:03):
chance points. But at the end of the day, even then,
it led to two double digit losses in three games
in which the average margin of victory for the Brooklyn
Nets was fifteen points. So maybe there's a path to
victory there, but I just don't know if I see
this and the convers let's talk about this conversation. This
this Brooklyn Nets defense, right, because yes, hasn't been good.

(52:26):
But this is my favorite stat that I dug up,
hardened to Rant Irving when they play together, hundred and
twelve point one points everyone hundre possessions allowed, a defensive
rating that is better than Boston's this season. So for
all that we talked about Harden and Irving Durant, they
can't play defense. They suck. Their defensive rating is better
than Boston's as a team when they're on the floor together.

(52:47):
So again, it's not gonna be a dominant defensive performance.
But I do think that this conversation around defense doesn't
matter anymore. The Brooklyn Nets have just broken everything. They're
there are bad, They're not good, They're below average, They're
not as bad as you think they are. Right, they're
an elite transition defense, And yes, I said that elite

(53:09):
transition defense. One point one, one three is the offensive
rating or a hundred eleven point three defense rating shouldut
that way. Points per play, a hundred and eleven point
three points per one hundred plays in transition one of
the best that you're gonna see out there with those
three on the floor. There are things out there that
you can like a little bit about the way Brooklyn
plays defense. But since they acquired Harden, I thought that

(53:32):
the Nets were the best team in the Eastern Conference.
Hard and makes them the best team in the Eastern Conference.
I just don't know if this goes past five. So
I have enough respect for Jayson Tatum that I selected
Boston to extend this to five. I think Brooklyn wins
four to one this series, but it wouldn't be surprised
if this ends in four. Just don't know what Boston
brings to the table in that regard, Philadelphia seventy is

(53:54):
taken on the Washington Wizards. This one's gonna be quick too,
because look, I just don't know where the offense comes
from for the Washington Wizards. Right, seventy six finished the
season third best defense in non garbage time. Then it's
a hundred eight point two points everyone hundre possessions. They
only got better in the second half of the year, which,
by the way, real quick rewind. I got a lot
of push back, like, well, the second half of the
Phoenix Suns they were coasting. They didn't really care. Really,

(54:16):
I don't want to hear about that, because guess what,
the Clippers, the Jazz, the seventy sixers, all you know,
competitors for a title. They still finished within the top
five defensive efficiency. So why can't the Phoenix Suns. Maybe
because they're not that good. Regardless, we're talking about the
seventy sixers. In the Wizards second half, hundred and six
point three points everyone hundre possessions a full six point
eight points better than the average opportunistic as well third

(54:37):
best defensive turnover rate in the league fifteen point three percent.
They allow opponents to shoot sixty three point five percent
within the basket from deep, Like there's just so many
categories across the board that this team is gonna be
freaking awesome at defensively, And then you look at Washington
and I just don't know again how they're going to
be scoring consistently, right, because their offense even during this
last you know stretch during the regular season where they

(54:58):
were seventeen and seven, they split the two playing games
and eventually win their eighth seed. They were great offensively
if you look at it right, average thirteenth and offensive
efficiency over the last twenty four games hundred fifteen point
eight points in non garbage time minutes per one hundred
possessions tenth and rim shooting eleven and three point shooting,
but a majority of their offense generated inside the arc
they ranked fourteenth. And frequency of mid range attempts assume

(55:21):
if a frequency of attempts at the rim closed regular
season second in frequency of mid range attempts at forty.
But if you're an offense that generates mostly within the
arc against the Philadelphia se how is that gonna work out? Right,
It's just not a matchup that is going to allow
them to operate efficiently, especially with Joel and Pete and

(55:43):
Ben Simmons on the floor. Now, what's interesting is Washington
got here, but they didn't really get here offensively right
throughout this regular season stretch that they were on defense
a lot of hundred and eleven point four points everyone
hundred possessions final twenty four games of the regular season.
They were great at the rim, great at the arc, right,
gave up nothing really within four to the basket seven
second fewest attempts at the rim during the end of

(56:03):
the regular season, fourth fewest perimeter shots. Game plan resulted
in opponents taken a bunch of mid range attempts. They
actually ranked thirty frequency of opponent mid range shots allowed
over these final twenty four games. But that's the plan, right,
Look at the Jazz. The Jazz would be like, hey,
no, no no, no, no, no, you're not gonna get perimeter shots.
You're not gonna get ram shots. Just taking the rain shots.

(56:24):
We'll be fine with that. Well, here's the thing with
Washington though, what's really interesting. It worked for the most part,
opponent shots just thirty four point nine percent from deep.
They finished eighth. That opponent affect the fieldal percentage. But
two massive flaws with their defensive game plan down the
stretch at the rim, well, they didn't allow opponents to

(56:45):
get there. When they did, they shot sixties. And how
about this. Opponents not only took the most mid range
shots of any team in the final twenty four games
against Washington, they shot forty on those attempts. That's the
fifth high mark. So Washington was allowing mid range shots
and they just kept going down. And why that matters.

(57:06):
Joel Embiad has evolved into an elite mid range scorer.
He's been absolutely fantastic. Philadelphia rings fifth as a team
and frequency in mid range shots fourth and mid range shooting.
This is just a match of nightmare for the Wizards. Man,
And you know you look at it like speaking of
a bead, Right, who are you getting on this roster again?
Draw the line circle? The guy? Is it Robin Lopez
who went on the floor. The Wizards allow opponents to
take forty two point five percent of their attempts from

(57:28):
mid range and shot. Is it Alex lenn who again
mid range shooting numbers just as bad rim defense absolutely
worse at sixty six nine percent. Or is it Daniel Gafford,
who has statistically been Washington's best available center, but he
gives up nearly three inches and fifty pounds of Joel
Empad Like just across the board man offensively, Bradley Bald

(57:49):
they got an elite score. You're right, they do well.
Guess what the Philadelphia seventy have a defensive player that
your finalist in Ben Simmons, who they can put on them.
They haven't Tea Stybel, who is a big part of
why they finished third, and defensive turnover rate. They have
Danny Green, Like, there's so many different things that they
can throw at these guys. Man, I just don't know
how this this happens for Washington in terms of extending

(58:10):
this out even past five. So I picked Philly and
form I think this is gonna be a sweep. Philadelphia
takes care of business there and then last but not least,
the final series that was set just last night as
a Memphis Grizzlies get a big one in overtime thanks
to Grace and Allen Andrew Wiggins. That was such a
bad shot at the end over time, that was sarcasm.
Grizzlies taken on the Utah Jazz. I just don't know. Again,

(58:34):
if we're looking at this from a statistical standpoint between
these two teams, right, Utah's gonna get Donovan Mitchell back.
But from a defensive standpoint, Utah Jazz best defense arguably
in the NBA, right outside of Philadelphia Lost Angels Clippers
is gonna be in there. But like across the board,
no worse than tenth than any of the major shooting
categories if we're talking about rim, short, midrange, long, bid range,

(58:57):
total mid range shots, corner three nine, corners three all three. Right,
this is really good team. I think the thing that
concerns you if you're the Utah Jazz to an extent,
think about the times in which Rudy Gobert has been,
for lack of a better term, newter defensively. It has

(59:19):
been in series, in games like Chris Paul, Chris Paul
loves to play against Rudy Goberty. Let's play centers, right,
they'll take you out into space. He'll make you work,
he'll put you on skates. We've had plenty of plenty
of highlights of Steph Curry doing the same to Rudy Gobert,
so theoretically you would think that John Morand could do
the same. Here's the problem. Think about those two players

(59:44):
that I just mentioned, outside of just the grandeur around
them as NBA players, think about their style of play offensively,
the difference between a Steph Curry slash Chris Paul and
John Morant. John Morant does not have the consistent jumper
both of those guys have from any area of the floor. Right.

(01:00:04):
Morant as great with that float push shot. He won
the bleep in game yesterday on it. But if you
look at this overall, Morant just doesn't have the skill
set to take advantage of Rudy Gobert out in space
like some of these elite guards have been able to
do in the past. Memphis is a team that if

(01:00:25):
you look at their offensive game plan in terms of
frequency of attempts, in terms of frequency at three point shots,
in terms of frequency within four ft of the basket.
They thrive in mid range, specifically short mid range where
they take of their attempts and they shoot forto those

(01:00:49):
stupid floater push shots that you know, John Morant just
hit the other night. How does this offense operate against
the Utah Jazz and the other are part of this
is the reason why they think the Jazz ultimately falls
short in a series with either Los Angeles team is
that Royce O'Neil from a defensive standpoint is not going

(01:01:10):
to be able to keep up with the offensive skill
set of the scoring wings that either one of those
teams have. Right, Lebron James Leonard Paul Georgie matches up
a little bit better because you know, Kauie Leonard's gonna
be Paul george is not a big massive as a
quiet Leonard Lebron James type, Royce O'Neil can handle anyone.
There's no dynamics scoring wing from Memphis. Right, It's Dylan
Brooks finding space and then hitting a jump shot from

(01:01:31):
mid range, you know, And like that's the other thing
about this offense is there is some flow to it.
But think about down the stretch. For a couple of
these games, the Spurs game, for example, it was just
Dylan Brooks attacking off the bounce and then hitting step
back midrange jumpers. It's not gonna work here against the
Utah Jazz. Does that still your game? Maybe? I guess.
But here's the inverse of this. Remember the Memphis Grizzlies

(01:01:53):
hail from the staff, I should put it that way.
They hail from my pudinholes are staf Taylor Jenkins do
a really good job for the Memphis Grizzlies. But that
also means that you have some of the weaknesses that
the Milwaukee Box have. Mephis Grizzlies rim defense one of
the better ones in the NBA. Fifth in terms of
opponent shooting within four ft of the basket. Prioritize rim defense,

(01:02:17):
drop Jonis valent shootis, don't allow anything at the hoop,
don't switch a lot, allow those perimeter shots, and what
does that lead to? Twenty and frequency of opponent attempts
from beyond the arc twenty five and none corner frequency.
And then in terms of shooting percentage seven two opponents
from beyond the arc corner threes forty three point nine percent.

(01:02:39):
Last time I checked, Utah Jazz pretty damn good in
terms of shoot the ball. Third inport in terms of
all overall three point shooting, fourth in terms of nine
corner three point shooting, eleventh in terms of corner three
point shooting forty percent. Actually take the most corner threes
of any team in the league, the Utah Jazz do.
And guess who happens to round twenty nine in corner
three points shoting defensively, the Memphis Grizzlies. So if Memphis

(01:03:04):
had an elite perimeter scorer that could steal them a
game or two. I think that there could be something there,
but ultimately they don't. They have John Morant whose main
operation is inside the ark, as is Dylan Brooks. Grayson
Allen is a very good shooter. We saw it at
the end of overtime against the Golden State Warriors. But
at the end of the day, they just don't have
the guy who creates his don't look from the perimeter

(01:03:25):
and can shoot on a consistent basis to keep up
with the Utah Jazz Jazz and for alright, So that's it.
That's the end of the pod. I appreciate you tuning
in and listening. Thank you very much for all the time.
So three episodes this week. Very excited about that. Again,
I'm gonna try to get these out more regularly. I
do have a numbers game duty coming up over the
next two weeks, so we try to keep up the
writing as well. Let's see how that plays out to

(01:03:46):
It shouldn't be a problem. Only three ms a day,
so the writings will be up at Visa dot com,
slaze JVT. We'll see if the podcast can. Can you
go up on a daily basis and maybe like a
daily quick like twenty minute one offer type of deal
after some of the games at night, um you get
those up immediately. But regardless, please if you're listening to
this at this point right now. Like rate Reviews, subscribe
always very much appreciated, very much appreciated the positive words

(01:04:08):
about the podcast too. I know this is just me rambling,
but hopefully it helped you out a little bit there
and we will see you on the next episode of
Hardwin Handicappers.