July 15, 2024 • 9 mins
Today on Sharp Money, Nick Whalen joined hosts Femi Abebefe and Jared Smith to give his thoughts on the recently released NBA win totals.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's talk some NBA though, because's what people actually want
to listen to. Hang out. We got win totals on
DraftKings that just came out yesterday. I was excited. Jared
was excited about this. We talked to JBT about it.
In our number one. I want to start up with
the Los Angeles Lakers, though their win totals at forty
four and a half. They made the big move to
get Bronnie obviously the joke, but they drafted Bronni James.
They went ahead and got Dalton connect in the draft,
(00:20):
but they didn't really do a whole lot in like
free agency. Where do you see the Lakers here in
twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So the Lakers win total comes in at forty four
and a half, which seems fair right they won forty
seven a year ago. I think this is a little
too high. I think the Lakers had first and foremost
a best case health season from both Lebron James and
Anthony Davis in twenty twenty three twenty four? Can you
count on that?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
In what is this?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
You're twenty one for Lebron James age forty season? Can
you count on Anthony Davis to play seventy plus games
like you did last season. I don't think you can.
And like you said, vem me. This is a team
that I think went into the offseason with ambitions. They're thinking,
you know, we can land Klay Thompson. That could be
the piece that, you know, maybe moves us finally out
of the play and zone for the first time in
like three year. They strike out on that, and what
have they done?
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
You bring in Dalton Connect. I think it was a
gift for them to get him where they did in
the draft, But is Dalton Connect a guy that's really
going to be anything more than your I don't know,
sixth to seventh man at best next season. They still
had the D'Angel Russell chip if they want to do
something with that. But ultimately, you know, what is that
landing you?
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:19):
They struck out on Demarta Rosen. I think that actually
would have been a reasonable fit. You know, that's somebody
who's been extremely durable, somebody you can depend on in
the regular season, which is ultimately what we're concerned about
with these win totals. But it kind of feels like
they're hail Mary right now.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Would be Zach.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Lavine, who is perhaps even more of an injury risk
than Lebron and ad at this point. So to me,
I think if if you pencil in Lebron for I
don't know, fifteen to twenty miss games, which has been
the safe bet over the last five years, you could
say the same for Anthony Davis. That team is really
going to struggle when either of those guys are unavailable.
So I think forty four and a half to me,
that's an easy under.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Fifty four and a half for the Thunder, which is
a high numb that is obviously the success in the
playoffs last year. I think it's fair to say the
roster continues to be at a high level. But again,
you're asking a team that maybe hasn't had that success to.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Basically be one of the best teams in the league.
High bar. But you think it's clearable. I think it
is clearable.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I mean, they cleared it last season, right, and I
think the Thunder went out and addressed by far their
biggest need, one of the biggest needs any contending team
had arguably the biggest this offseason, which was getting literally
anyone else at center right. All due respect to the
other Jalen Williams. I don't think they want him playing
fourteen to eighteen minutes a game. I think this gives
them the flexibility now to play Chet Holmgren at the four.
You're not asking somebody who weighs, you know, two hundred
(02:29):
and twenty pounds to go bang with some of the
big men in the NBA. I think did they overpay
for Isaiah Harnstein? Perhaps, yeah, I agree, but it filled
an absolute need for the thunder. And you know, I
think the other glaring weakness for this team, and this
really showed through in the playoffs, was the Josh Getty
fit right, and and what do they do? They flipped
him to Chicago. They bring in a perfect fit in
Alex Caruso. Obviously he brings defense, but what a lot
(02:50):
of people don't realize about Caruso is a forty percent
three point shooter last season, So you're bringing even more
shooting into this team. They brought back Aaron Wiggins, they
brought back Isaiah Joe, two guys. They've been grooming that
bench unit. And I think this is a young enough
team that they're they're not going to be complacent in
the regular season. They haven't won anything, right, you know,
you kind of worry about a team like I don't know, Denver, Milwaukee,
these teams that have been through the runs over the years.
(03:10):
Are they taking the regular season that seriously? Are they
pushing for sixty wins? I think Oka se is early
enough in its development as a team that they still
want to push for that one seed, right, they still
want to win sixty games. And the last thing I'll say, yeah, okay,
see everybody plays for them, right, they don't have injury
risks on this team. All the all five starters last
year played at least seventy one games. That's a huge
(03:30):
concern when you're looking at win totals across the NBA.
I don't really have that concern for Okay, see just.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
Real quick on draft Kings. Okay, season now up to
fifty five and a half fifty five and show yeah
that just update in the last second. That updated from
when Femi sent me the tweet to today.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Or hanging out when I agree with you though on
the Thunder, I think like there's not a bad defender
that they're gonna be playing in the rotation. Like there's
a chance that they're the probably the best defensive team
in the league. This pas asolute this upcoming season, like
it's going to be a really, really difficult team to
play in for teams that maybe they go out and
capture that one seed didn' ultimately go a little bit
further than they did this past year in the playoffs
as they bowed out in the second round. We're hanging
out with Nick Whyal and senior analysts for Rotal Wire,
host on Serious x M NBA. How about the other
(04:10):
team in Los Angeles, the Clippers, Paul George now in Philadelphia. Yeah,
they brought in Derek Jones junior. Kawhi's health status is
always going to be top of mine when you talk
about the Clippers here. How do you see this plan
out for them?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I don't see it playing out well, I really don't.
I think the writing is on the wall already, and
it's you know, mid July with Kawhi Leonard. I don't
think he left Team USA because he didn't want to
play in the Olympics. I don't think he would have
showed up in the first place if that was the case.
If you're already concerned in mid July about Kawhi Leonards,
knees I wonder what that's going to look like in
November and February, and especially April and May, which is
when those those injuries have really popped up for him
(04:44):
over the last couple of years.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I mean, Kawhi, much.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Like Anthony Davison Lebron James, I think he had a
best case healthy season last year, right at least in
the regular season, which again is what we're concerned about
with these win totals. He played sixty eight games last season.
Kawhi Leonard does not play sixty eight games these days.
That was the first time in seven years that he's
reached the sixty five game mark. I don't think that's
happening again. And you know, they lose Paul George. Of course,
like you said, they go out, they get Derek Jones,
(05:08):
they get Chris Dunn, they get Kevin Porter off the street,
Nick Batoom. None of that really moves the needle for
me all that much. And Paul George was quietly fantastic
last season. He played seventy four games. I mean, he
had missed a ton of time, almost as much as
Kawhi over the last three or four years. And you're
taking seventy four games out of an All Star All
NBA caliber player, out of that rotation, you're trying to
backfill it with a bunch of veterans. I think if
(05:30):
Kawhi Leonard plays fifty five or fewer games, I think
this is a team that could take a big, big
step back next season.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
Sometimes it's easier to pick the teams that are gonna
suck than the teams that are gonna be good. I
always say it's easy to maybe say you're you're not
gonna be good this year.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
And that's how we feel about the Wizards. Huh. I
don't know how you can feel any other way.
Speaker 5 (05:49):
Man.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
No, no disrespect of course to the Washington Wizards. Who
do they do roster by guy Johnny Davis, who might
be going down as like one of the worst top
ten picks that are very.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Long seleveny stock left there.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
No, I have liquidated all by Johnny Davis stock. Yeah,
that's a penny stock at this point. But I mean,
this team won fifteen games last year. Guys are they
how are they adding eight more wins? You know the
win totals at twenty two and a half. You know,
their best player in terms of VARp, you know which
is essentially war for NBA was Tyest Jones last season.
They're openly talking about trading Tias Jones. I don't think
(06:21):
Alex aar is going to be a winning player right away.
I think, you know, as far as number two picks go,
I think the numbers are probably not going to look
like a typical number two overall pick. They brought in
Yonas valancunis just an all time sad signing. You know,
I don't really know what that accomplishes. I guess that
raises your floor to some degree, but you know, he's
somebody who'd taken a couple steps back over the last
few years. I think they're their best or second best
player in terms of impacting winning last season. Deny Abdia
(06:44):
he's now in Portland. You bring in Malcolm Brogden, who
I don't even know if he's still on this team
come opening night, and if he is, you know, you
pencil him in for like thirty eight games.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
I think this is a team that should want to
be bad.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
That's the other thing, right, I mean, you have a
prize in the twenty twenty five NBA draft. It's going
to be a completely different from what we saw in
twenty twenty four where it felt like nobody wanted the
number one pick. Washington should absolutely want to enter the
Cooper Flag sweepstakes. They should make they should want to
make sure that they're a bottom four team next season.
And I think if you if you think they're winning
twenty four, twenty five, twenty six games, I don't know
(07:16):
if that's going to do it right because there are
other teams that are going to be buying for Cooper Flag.
And I think the other thing you have to consider
with some of these bottom feeders, it's just the overall
depth of the NBA right now, right, I mean, there
are so many teams, especially in the Western Conference, that
that want to contend, that view themselves as contenders. I
think there's there's like twelve thirteen teams in the West
that think they're making the play in It's not quite
that severe in the Eastern Conference. But if you're a
(07:37):
team like Washington, it's hard to find the wins on
the schedule, right It's like you only played Detroit in
Brooklyn so many times, Like where are those other wins coming?
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Capture the Flag is what everyone's gonna be trying to
do with the bottom one there. Yeah, we had sucked
for luck, we had all these things. It's captured the flag.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
The flag, Yeah, pretty good.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
It's fantastic if you come up with that. No, I
saw it from somebody. I saw came up with that
person was not me. Real quick, he We've got ninety
seconds something to seven. You're gonna hang out with us
talks and NFL in the next segment. But I have
to ask you about the San Antonio Spurs. They'll win
total open thirty four and a half already up to
thirty five and a half. What are your expectations for
Wemby and the crew in year two?
Speaker 2 (08:12):
So we're talking about adding what fourteen wins to the
San Antonio Spurs. And I am all in on Victor
weben Yama. And you know, we do a lot of
fantasy at Rhadawire. We have him as our number one
overall player next season. That's over Nicole Yokic, over Luka
Doancic over Sga.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
I think the.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Statistical ceiling from Victor Webin Yama, I think is unlike
anything we've seen in terms of what he can do defensively.
I mean, he could be a twenty five and fourteen
guy with five assists and you know, four or five
blocks per game.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
That's not out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
The question is did they add enough around Victor Weban Yama,
And as of right now, I don't know that they have,
you know, bringing in someone like Harrison Barnes that that's
a nice veteran presence. Is that a guy that's helping
you all that much in terms of regular season wins?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
I'm not sure he is.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
I like Stefon Castle a lot, but you know, he
was what a twenty eight percent three point shooter at
Yukon last season. So I think that the Spurs are
going to take a large step forward. I think we're
going to see a monster individual season out of Victor Webenyama.
I would be a little bit skittish approaching the over
on that win total.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Yeah, a little, I just say I. I was telling JBT,
I was like, at the end of this upcoming season,
will it surprise anyone if web Min Yama is the
best player in the league. Jav T said it would
surprise him. I was like, this guy, he makes quantum
leaps every single year. I just think that this is
something that we've never seen before. He's a praying mansion.
Seven to five was a step.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Back three, it's insane.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
So I just think thirty five and a half or
maybe the best player in the league. We've never seen that.
So that's kind of my thing on the Santois. But
even though you probably are paying a little bit of
a tax, but I don't think the tax is high enough.
That's my opinion.
Let's talk some NBA though, because's what people actually want
to listen to. Hang out. We got win totals on
DraftKings that just came out yesterday. I was excited. Jared
was excited about this. We talked to JBT about it.
In our number one. I want to start up with
the Los Angeles Lakers, though their win totals at forty
four and a half. They made the big move to
get Bronnie obviously the joke, but they drafted Bronni James.
They went ahead and got Dalton connect in the draft,
(00:20):
but they didn't really do a whole lot in like
free agency. Where do you see the Lakers here in
twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So the Lakers win total comes in at forty four
and a half, which seems fair right they won forty
seven a year ago. I think this is a little
too high. I think the Lakers had first and foremost
a best case health season from both Lebron James and
Anthony Davis in twenty twenty three twenty four? Can you
count on that?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
In what is this?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
You're twenty one for Lebron James age forty season? Can
you count on Anthony Davis to play seventy plus games
like you did last season. I don't think you can.
And like you said, vem me. This is a team
that I think went into the offseason with ambitions. They're thinking,
you know, we can land Klay Thompson. That could be
the piece that, you know, maybe moves us finally out
of the play and zone for the first time in
like three year. They strike out on that, and what
have they done?
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
You bring in Dalton Connect. I think it was a
gift for them to get him where they did in
the draft, But is Dalton Connect a guy that's really
going to be anything more than your I don't know,
sixth to seventh man at best next season. They still
had the D'Angel Russell chip if they want to do
something with that. But ultimately, you know, what is that
landing you?
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:19):
They struck out on Demarta Rosen. I think that actually
would have been a reasonable fit. You know, that's somebody
who's been extremely durable, somebody you can depend on in
the regular season, which is ultimately what we're concerned about
with these win totals. But it kind of feels like
they're hail Mary right now.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Would be Zach.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Lavine, who is perhaps even more of an injury risk
than Lebron and ad at this point. So to me,
I think if if you pencil in Lebron for I
don't know, fifteen to twenty miss games, which has been
the safe bet over the last five years, you could
say the same for Anthony Davis. That team is really
going to struggle when either of those guys are unavailable.
So I think forty four and a half to me,
that's an easy under.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Fifty four and a half for the Thunder, which is
a high numb that is obviously the success in the
playoffs last year. I think it's fair to say the
roster continues to be at a high level. But again,
you're asking a team that maybe hasn't had that success to.
Speaker 3 (02:04):
Basically be one of the best teams in the league.
High bar. But you think it's clearable. I think it
is clearable.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I mean, they cleared it last season, right, and I
think the Thunder went out and addressed by far their
biggest need, one of the biggest needs any contending team
had arguably the biggest this offseason, which was getting literally
anyone else at center right. All due respect to the
other Jalen Williams. I don't think they want him playing
fourteen to eighteen minutes a game. I think this gives
them the flexibility now to play Chet Holmgren at the four.
You're not asking somebody who weighs, you know, two hundred
(02:29):
and twenty pounds to go bang with some of the
big men in the NBA. I think did they overpay
for Isaiah Harnstein? Perhaps, yeah, I agree, but it filled
an absolute need for the thunder. And you know, I
think the other glaring weakness for this team, and this
really showed through in the playoffs, was the Josh Getty
fit right, and and what do they do? They flipped
him to Chicago. They bring in a perfect fit in
Alex Caruso. Obviously he brings defense, but what a lot
(02:50):
of people don't realize about Caruso is a forty percent
three point shooter last season, So you're bringing even more
shooting into this team. They brought back Aaron Wiggins, they
brought back Isaiah Joe, two guys. They've been grooming that
bench unit. And I think this is a young enough
team that they're they're not going to be complacent in
the regular season. They haven't won anything, right, you know,
you kind of worry about a team like I don't know, Denver, Milwaukee,
these teams that have been through the runs over the years.
(03:10):
Are they taking the regular season that seriously? Are they
pushing for sixty wins? I think Oka se is early
enough in its development as a team that they still
want to push for that one seed, right, they still
want to win sixty games. And the last thing I'll say, yeah, okay,
see everybody plays for them, right, they don't have injury
risks on this team. All the all five starters last
year played at least seventy one games. That's a huge
(03:30):
concern when you're looking at win totals across the NBA.
I don't really have that concern for Okay, see just.
Speaker 5 (03:35):
Real quick on draft Kings. Okay, season now up to
fifty five and a half fifty five and show yeah
that just update in the last second. That updated from
when Femi sent me the tweet to today.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Or hanging out when I agree with you though on
the Thunder, I think like there's not a bad defender
that they're gonna be playing in the rotation. Like there's
a chance that they're the probably the best defensive team
in the league. This pas asolute this upcoming season, like
it's going to be a really, really difficult team to
play in for teams that maybe they go out and
capture that one seed didn' ultimately go a little bit
further than they did this past year in the playoffs
as they bowed out in the second round. We're hanging
out with Nick Whyal and senior analysts for Rotal Wire,
host on Serious x M NBA. How about the other
(04:10):
team in Los Angeles, the Clippers, Paul George now in Philadelphia. Yeah,
they brought in Derek Jones junior. Kawhi's health status is
always going to be top of mine when you talk
about the Clippers here. How do you see this plan
out for them?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I don't see it playing out well, I really don't.
I think the writing is on the wall already, and
it's you know, mid July with Kawhi Leonard. I don't
think he left Team USA because he didn't want to
play in the Olympics. I don't think he would have
showed up in the first place if that was the case.
If you're already concerned in mid July about Kawhi Leonards,
knees I wonder what that's going to look like in
November and February, and especially April and May, which is
when those those injuries have really popped up for him
(04:44):
over the last couple of years.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I mean, Kawhi, much.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Like Anthony Davison Lebron James, I think he had a
best case healthy season last year, right at least in
the regular season, which again is what we're concerned about
with these win totals. He played sixty eight games last season.
Kawhi Leonard does not play sixty eight games these days.
That was the first time in seven years that he's
reached the sixty five game mark. I don't think that's
happening again. And you know, they lose Paul George. Of course,
like you said, they go out, they get Derek Jones,
(05:08):
they get Chris Dunn, they get Kevin Porter off the street,
Nick Batoom. None of that really moves the needle for
me all that much. And Paul George was quietly fantastic
last season. He played seventy four games. I mean, he
had missed a ton of time, almost as much as
Kawhi over the last three or four years. And you're
taking seventy four games out of an All Star All
NBA caliber player, out of that rotation, you're trying to
backfill it with a bunch of veterans. I think if
(05:30):
Kawhi Leonard plays fifty five or fewer games, I think
this is a team that could take a big, big
step back next season.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
Sometimes it's easier to pick the teams that are gonna
suck than the teams that are gonna be good. I
always say it's easy to maybe say you're you're not
gonna be good this year.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
And that's how we feel about the Wizards. Huh. I
don't know how you can feel any other way.
Speaker 5 (05:49):
Man.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
No, no disrespect of course to the Washington Wizards. Who
do they do roster by guy Johnny Davis, who might
be going down as like one of the worst top
ten picks that are very.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Long seleveny stock left there.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
No, I have liquidated all by Johnny Davis stock. Yeah,
that's a penny stock at this point. But I mean,
this team won fifteen games last year. Guys are they
how are they adding eight more wins? You know the
win totals at twenty two and a half. You know,
their best player in terms of VARp, you know which
is essentially war for NBA was Tyest Jones last season.
They're openly talking about trading Tias Jones. I don't think
(06:21):
Alex aar is going to be a winning player right away.
I think, you know, as far as number two picks go,
I think the numbers are probably not going to look
like a typical number two overall pick. They brought in
Yonas valancunis just an all time sad signing. You know,
I don't really know what that accomplishes. I guess that
raises your floor to some degree, but you know, he's
somebody who'd taken a couple steps back over the last
few years. I think they're their best or second best
player in terms of impacting winning last season. Deny Abdia
(06:44):
he's now in Portland. You bring in Malcolm Brogden, who
I don't even know if he's still on this team
come opening night, and if he is, you know, you
pencil him in for like thirty eight games.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
I think this is a team that should want to
be bad.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
That's the other thing, right, I mean, you have a
prize in the twenty twenty five NBA draft. It's going
to be a completely different from what we saw in
twenty twenty four where it felt like nobody wanted the
number one pick. Washington should absolutely want to enter the
Cooper Flag sweepstakes. They should make they should want to
make sure that they're a bottom four team next season.
And I think if you if you think they're winning
twenty four, twenty five, twenty six games, I don't know
(07:16):
if that's going to do it right because there are
other teams that are going to be buying for Cooper Flag.
And I think the other thing you have to consider
with some of these bottom feeders, it's just the overall
depth of the NBA right now, right, I mean, there
are so many teams, especially in the Western Conference, that
that want to contend, that view themselves as contenders. I
think there's there's like twelve thirteen teams in the West
that think they're making the play in It's not quite
that severe in the Eastern Conference. But if you're a
(07:37):
team like Washington, it's hard to find the wins on
the schedule, right It's like you only played Detroit in
Brooklyn so many times, Like where are those other wins coming?
Speaker 1 (07:44):
Capture the Flag is what everyone's gonna be trying to
do with the bottom one there. Yeah, we had sucked
for luck, we had all these things. It's captured the flag.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
The flag, Yeah, pretty good.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
It's fantastic if you come up with that. No, I
saw it from somebody. I saw came up with that
person was not me. Real quick, he We've got ninety
seconds something to seven. You're gonna hang out with us
talks and NFL in the next segment. But I have
to ask you about the San Antonio Spurs. They'll win
total open thirty four and a half already up to
thirty five and a half. What are your expectations for
Wemby and the crew in year two?
Speaker 2 (08:12):
So we're talking about adding what fourteen wins to the
San Antonio Spurs. And I am all in on Victor
weben Yama. And you know, we do a lot of
fantasy at Rhadawire. We have him as our number one
overall player next season. That's over Nicole Yokic, over Luka
Doancic over Sga.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
I think the.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Statistical ceiling from Victor Webin Yama, I think is unlike
anything we've seen in terms of what he can do defensively.
I mean, he could be a twenty five and fourteen
guy with five assists and you know, four or five
blocks per game.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
That's not out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
The question is did they add enough around Victor Weban Yama,
And as of right now, I don't know that they have,
you know, bringing in someone like Harrison Barnes that that's
a nice veteran presence. Is that a guy that's helping
you all that much in terms of regular season wins?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
I'm not sure he is.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
I like Stefon Castle a lot, but you know, he
was what a twenty eight percent three point shooter at
Yukon last season. So I think that the Spurs are
going to take a large step forward. I think we're
going to see a monster individual season out of Victor Webenyama.
I would be a little bit skittish approaching the over
on that win total.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Yeah, a little, I just say I. I was telling JBT,
I was like, at the end of this upcoming season,
will it surprise anyone if web Min Yama is the
best player in the league. Jav T said it would
surprise him. I was like, this guy, he makes quantum
leaps every single year. I just think that this is
something that we've never seen before. He's a praying mansion.
Seven to five was a step.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Back three, it's insane.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
So I just think thirty five and a half or
maybe the best player in the league. We've never seen that.
So that's kind of my thing on the Santois. But
even though you probably are paying a little bit of
a tax, but I don't think the tax is high enough.
That's my opinion.
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