July 19, 2024 • 9 mins
Kelley Bydlon gave out his best bets for NBA Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year from A Numbers Game.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
As far as the NBA, we're going to talk here
Kelly has a win, told to bet he has made.
We also talk some defensive Player of the Year. But
I saw this story yesterday. I know we were talking
about this as well, Kelly. Where David Purdham from ESPN
reporting on all the bets coming in on Bronnie James
to win Rookie of the Year. So all those people
who bet they're harder in cash on Brinnie James ago
number one overall in the NBA draft who lost, were like,
(00:22):
fear not, We're going to make all this money back
by just going to the well on Bronnie James to win.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Here there was a thousand dollars Rookie the Year bet
taken by a MGM at two point fifty to one. Yeah,
according to draftings, only Zach Edy, who was the early
that California Summer League to the Star there had his odds
got all the way from twenty to one down to
six to one. In a lot of places, only Edie
has taken more money than James. And the Rookie of
(00:48):
the Year market, which like on the surface, I get
because it's a hard market. This year, a lot of uncertainty.
But at the same time, one player of those two
who's getting a lot of the action, has legitimately a
zero point zero zero zero one percent chance of winning
this award. And that one percent chance is only because
nothing is guaranteed. Do not happen in this life, Kelly.
So we have to put one at the very end
of it, and that is Brownie James win Rookie the Year.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
That is a great way to describe that, absolutely betting
nothing is guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
Yes, it's like the you know, it's basically like the
Kevin Malone from the Office thing. If anything has ten
thousand to one odds on it, you're obligated to bet.
That's kind of what people are doing with Brownie James,
except it's not ten thousand to one.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Even though it should be. It should be long, it
should be. Look, Bronnie had another night's game last night
for the Lakers. The thirteen points, five rebounds, three assists,
two blocks. I ended up watching it, you know a
fair amount of it. Again, this is I mean, I
know a lot of people might be complaining about, you know,
no baseball on nothing, nothing's on to bet on man.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I between summer league and golf, every and everything. Ben,
I'm busy every day watching this stuff.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Man. But yeah, I thought he put on another good
performance last night. But yeah, man, read it this David
Purdin piece, and this is I had started to hear.
I had heard this when the market had just gotten open.
But man, these rookie years, this is like, this is
a worse bet than betting him to go number one overall.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Like I really believe that bet.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Like maybe maybe there was some bizarre, bizarre, bizarre world
where like they felt so desperate or somebody felt so
desperate to get Brodny James to try to lure Lebron
that that could have happened in the first round. That
would have been a remote, a remote chance when we
talk about percentages. I still think there was a better
chance of that happening, though, than him winning Rookie of
the Year.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
This guy, we're talking about.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
A guy who an old likelihood is going to start
in the G League, should start in the G League.
If you like Brodny James, are actually rooting for the kid.
He should be in the G League and developing for
the bulk of this season.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
He shouldn't be in the NBA much of this season.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Now, do I think we're gonna see him playing an
NBA game this season?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yes, I do. I think that this whole playing.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
With his dad Lebron thing has has been a narrative
and a true story for the past three four years now,
however we've been however long we've been talking about it
at this point, once the Lakers drafted him, I think
it showed that all of that was all true what
we were talking about out for a year. So does
he play in a game yet? But he's not gonna
win Rookie of the Year. You're right, it's a wide
open race. But you're talking about there's twenty thirty guys
(03:09):
that are gonna get regular minutes for NBA teams.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
This season that would be way in front of him.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
So I just just don't if you're gonna go bet
Brownie James, pick anything else, I don't go up to
the Lett wheel and put it all on double Green.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
It's a better bet than Brownie James Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I I just wanted to I just want just wanted
to put the point, put that out there.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
No, it's it's well, we're talking about it and It's also
the point being just because a specific market is wide
open does not equate to you as a better just
going out and betting the longest shot simply because oh
well there's uncertainty and it's up in the air and
you will go and bet. I remember, this is a
guy who averaged five points a game off the bench
for a bad college team that last year. Like that,
those are just the facts. As far as Brownie James,
I'm route for the kid. I think we all know
(03:51):
we'd love to see especially I mean, you can't even
imagine how hard it has to be for the kid,
right given the circumstances, given your dad, all that, you
want to see success, but it's it's not going to
happen right away. Yeah, not the way to bet this. However,
there is one very interesting award market that has has
really started to get shaped in and that's largely because
of the debate we had going into the end of
last year Roady Gobert versus Victor Webinyama for Defensive Player
(04:13):
of the Year. A lot of conjecture and a lot
a lot of Wemby betters are still kind of are
still sort of saying, hey, another blocked by wemen Yama is.
The NBA can recognize that well, even though Gobert wins it,
going back to the end of last season. Now the
expectation is it will this This will be the sophomore
year with wemben Yama fully takes the mantle for Defensive
Player of the Year. I've seen him at price as
high as minus one seventy one eighty. I'm here at
(04:36):
DK Kelly Is. You're certainly having to pay a tax,
and that's a lot to pay on an award market.
As we're what three months out from the season even starting, yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Was, I was expecting this to open around even money
maybe minus one day. I wouldn't surprise It wasn't going
to surprise me if he was odds on.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
The first place that opened up was.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
MGM, I believe, and it was minus two fifty is
what they opened up with. And now we have some
other books that are starting to post this, so you're
gonna get You're gonna get this market round into shape
a little bit better. Minus one seventy I believe the
DraftKings right now is where he is at for Defensive
Player of.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
The Bear plus seven fifty. And then you get Chet
Holmer and Ben at a bio twelve to one piece.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Look, I've talked about long time kill and I've talked
about a long time we were planning on having wemby
Defensive Player of the Year bets heading into the season.
I did bet am MVP when that opened. I think
this is very interesting to monitor. It's all about price,
and I'm not saying I'm gonna watch with these numbers
move because as you see more and more shops opening this,
they're opening them by a little bit longer odds than
(05:38):
where we saw MGM first enter the market with. So
I think if you are looking to bet wembin Ya
I'm a defensive Player of the Year, there's no reason
to rush.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Wait till more books open up.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Let's see how this kind of rounds into shape across
all the books over the next couple of months before
the season starts. I might have a bet before the
season on him Ben, but I ain't get this number.
If I knew it was gonna be minus one seventy
was the best I could get. It would have to
be a put. Just pause, wait, hope to get something
in season at a little bit better number.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
But it's close.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
If it gets down to minus one thirty, minus one
forty something like that, I'll probably be grabbing a piece
heading into the season because I think there is there.
You rarely see this with the NBA Awards, but I
do think there is a potential reality where he does
go from minus one seventy and that's the cheapest price
you see on him all season long.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
I think he is he does have that skill the
mentality of the sportsbooks as well, especially if you're setting
that thing at minus two fifty without even taking a bet.
Signed to me, we would rather write a kajillion tickets
on Rudy Gobert and have all that exposure than take
one big bet on Webin Yama at a fairsh price.
That's kind of how I do.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
That, you know.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
And at the same time too, like you can you
could make like you could make some great cases, and
you haven't been able to get number of numbers on
these guys. I mean, you want to tell me you're
betting Jared Jackson Junior eighteen to one, Yannis at twenty
to one. Yeah, I mean those are those are not
bad bets in my opinion. And this is it might
you know, the opposite, right, this might be the only
time all year you're gonna be.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Able to get something that long on them.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Could be very true as well a win total market wise.
We've had the win totals out. DK's had these posted
for about five days now. Vegas Books have just posted
them as well. Kelly, you have been it's been on
your list for a while waiting and you did trigger
one bet here.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Yeah, I bet one.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Look, I think it's always it's always a little fun
to me year to year of how much always around
this time is when we get win totals awards get posted.
I felt like last year, Ben, I had a list
of probably six bets that I was ready to fire
on as soon as stuff opened. They were near numbers
that I expected on them, were bets right.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Away for me. Just not the same this year, win
totals and awards not.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I've made a couple bets, but nothing that that uh, nothing,
I'm going crazy over. I was looking at the Spurs
over was going to interested to see what their win
total was going to be. Said at was set a
couple wins higher than I thought it was going to be.
So backed off of.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That one thirty five and a half, Yeah, thirty five
and a half.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
I think actually the way I'm gonna approach that is
when we get alternate win totals open. We talk about
it a lot. In the NFL, all win to just
as valuable, if not more. In the NBA, that's one
I'll probably still bet, but I'll just bet. I'll bet
over on the all tigh, just just banking on them
having a ridiculously good season. Hopefully I'll probably make that.
The Grizzlies I might get involved with still as well.
(08:16):
But where I actually ended up going to is at
the bottom of the board here, and it is with
the Brooklyn Nets. We talked about this a little bit
with Drew Dinzic earlier in the week. There are a
couple teams out there, the Nets, the Wizards, possibly the Blazers. Man,
they're gonna they're gonna be packing it in early. These
teams are very devoid of talent, especially the Brooklyn Nets.
That roster is really really weak. And when you do
(08:37):
have someone like Cooper Flag coming up in the NBA
draft next year, this is back there. This is not
this past year. There is yeah, there is something actually
worth chasing in the NBA draft. Obviously, you got to
deal with the lottery system still, but there's gonna be
some incentive for some.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Of those teams that you're seeing with those low win totals.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
To go low. This is so funny how the bottom
of the NBA standings wintle it wise, it seems like
osmakers can never price these guys enough. It's just the
reality of taking in the NBA
As far as the NBA, we're going to talk here
Kelly has a win, told to bet he has made.
We also talk some defensive Player of the Year. But
I saw this story yesterday. I know we were talking
about this as well, Kelly. Where David Purdham from ESPN
reporting on all the bets coming in on Bronnie James
to win Rookie of the Year. So all those people
who bet they're harder in cash on Brinnie James ago
number one overall in the NBA draft who lost, were like,
(00:22):
fear not, We're going to make all this money back
by just going to the well on Bronnie James to win.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Here there was a thousand dollars Rookie the Year bet
taken by a MGM at two point fifty to one. Yeah,
according to draftings, only Zach Edy, who was the early
that California Summer League to the Star there had his odds
got all the way from twenty to one down to
six to one. In a lot of places, only Edie
has taken more money than James. And the Rookie of
(00:48):
the Year market, which like on the surface, I get
because it's a hard market. This year, a lot of uncertainty.
But at the same time, one player of those two
who's getting a lot of the action, has legitimately a
zero point zero zero zero one percent chance of winning
this award. And that one percent chance is only because
nothing is guaranteed. Do not happen in this life, Kelly.
So we have to put one at the very end
of it, and that is Brownie James win Rookie the Year.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
That is a great way to describe that, absolutely betting
nothing is guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
Yes, it's like the you know, it's basically like the
Kevin Malone from the Office thing. If anything has ten
thousand to one odds on it, you're obligated to bet.
That's kind of what people are doing with Brownie James,
except it's not ten thousand to one.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Even though it should be. It should be long, it
should be. Look, Bronnie had another night's game last night
for the Lakers. The thirteen points, five rebounds, three assists,
two blocks. I ended up watching it, you know a
fair amount of it. Again, this is I mean, I
know a lot of people might be complaining about, you know,
no baseball on nothing, nothing's on to bet on man.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I between summer league and golf, every and everything. Ben,
I'm busy every day watching this stuff.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Man. But yeah, I thought he put on another good
performance last night. But yeah, man, read it this David
Purdin piece, and this is I had started to hear.
I had heard this when the market had just gotten open.
But man, these rookie years, this is like, this is
a worse bet than betting him to go number one overall.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Like I really believe that bet.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Like maybe maybe there was some bizarre, bizarre, bizarre world
where like they felt so desperate or somebody felt so
desperate to get Brodny James to try to lure Lebron
that that could have happened in the first round. That
would have been a remote, a remote chance when we
talk about percentages. I still think there was a better
chance of that happening, though, than him winning Rookie of
the Year.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
This guy, we're talking about.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
A guy who an old likelihood is going to start
in the G League, should start in the G League.
If you like Brodny James, are actually rooting for the kid.
He should be in the G League and developing for
the bulk of this season.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
He shouldn't be in the NBA much of this season.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Now, do I think we're gonna see him playing an
NBA game this season?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Yes, I do. I think that this whole playing.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
With his dad Lebron thing has has been a narrative
and a true story for the past three four years now,
however we've been however long we've been talking about it
at this point, once the Lakers drafted him, I think
it showed that all of that was all true what
we were talking about out for a year. So does
he play in a game yet? But he's not gonna
win Rookie of the Year. You're right, it's a wide
open race. But you're talking about there's twenty thirty guys
(03:09):
that are gonna get regular minutes for NBA teams.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
This season that would be way in front of him.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
So I just just don't if you're gonna go bet
Brownie James, pick anything else, I don't go up to
the Lett wheel and put it all on double Green.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
It's a better bet than Brownie James Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
I I just wanted to I just want just wanted
to put the point, put that out there.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
No, it's it's well, we're talking about it and It's also
the point being just because a specific market is wide
open does not equate to you as a better just
going out and betting the longest shot simply because oh
well there's uncertainty and it's up in the air and
you will go and bet. I remember, this is a
guy who averaged five points a game off the bench
for a bad college team that last year. Like that,
those are just the facts. As far as Brownie James,
I'm route for the kid. I think we all know
(03:51):
we'd love to see especially I mean, you can't even
imagine how hard it has to be for the kid,
right given the circumstances, given your dad, all that, you
want to see success, but it's it's not going to
happen right away. Yeah, not the way to bet this. However,
there is one very interesting award market that has has
really started to get shaped in and that's largely because
of the debate we had going into the end of
last year Roady Gobert versus Victor Webinyama for Defensive Player
(04:13):
of the Year. A lot of conjecture and a lot
a lot of Wemby betters are still kind of are
still sort of saying, hey, another blocked by wemen Yama is.
The NBA can recognize that well, even though Gobert wins it,
going back to the end of last season. Now the
expectation is it will this This will be the sophomore
year with wemben Yama fully takes the mantle for Defensive
Player of the Year. I've seen him at price as
high as minus one seventy one eighty. I'm here at
(04:36):
DK Kelly Is. You're certainly having to pay a tax,
and that's a lot to pay on an award market.
As we're what three months out from the season even starting, yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Was, I was expecting this to open around even money
maybe minus one day. I wouldn't surprise It wasn't going
to surprise me if he was odds on.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
The first place that opened up was.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
MGM, I believe, and it was minus two fifty is
what they opened up with. And now we have some
other books that are starting to post this, so you're
gonna get You're gonna get this market round into shape
a little bit better. Minus one seventy I believe the
DraftKings right now is where he is at for Defensive
Player of.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
The Bear plus seven fifty. And then you get Chet
Holmer and Ben at a bio twelve to one piece.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Look, I've talked about long time kill and I've talked
about a long time we were planning on having wemby
Defensive Player of the Year bets heading into the season.
I did bet am MVP when that opened. I think
this is very interesting to monitor. It's all about price,
and I'm not saying I'm gonna watch with these numbers
move because as you see more and more shops opening this,
they're opening them by a little bit longer odds than
(05:38):
where we saw MGM first enter the market with. So
I think if you are looking to bet wembin Ya
I'm a defensive Player of the Year, there's no reason
to rush.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Wait till more books open up.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Let's see how this kind of rounds into shape across
all the books over the next couple of months before
the season starts. I might have a bet before the
season on him Ben, but I ain't get this number.
If I knew it was gonna be minus one seventy
was the best I could get. It would have to
be a put. Just pause, wait, hope to get something
in season at a little bit better number.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
But it's close.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
If it gets down to minus one thirty, minus one
forty something like that, I'll probably be grabbing a piece
heading into the season because I think there is there.
You rarely see this with the NBA Awards, but I
do think there is a potential reality where he does
go from minus one seventy and that's the cheapest price
you see on him all season long.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
I think he is he does have that skill the
mentality of the sportsbooks as well, especially if you're setting
that thing at minus two fifty without even taking a bet.
Signed to me, we would rather write a kajillion tickets
on Rudy Gobert and have all that exposure than take
one big bet on Webin Yama at a fairsh price.
That's kind of how I do.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
That, you know.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
And at the same time too, like you can you
could make like you could make some great cases, and
you haven't been able to get number of numbers on
these guys. I mean, you want to tell me you're
betting Jared Jackson Junior eighteen to one, Yannis at twenty
to one. Yeah, I mean those are those are not
bad bets in my opinion. And this is it might
you know, the opposite, right, this might be the only
time all year you're gonna be.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Able to get something that long on them.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Could be very true as well a win total market wise.
We've had the win totals out. DK's had these posted
for about five days now. Vegas Books have just posted
them as well. Kelly, you have been it's been on
your list for a while waiting and you did trigger
one bet here.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Yeah, I bet one.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Look, I think it's always it's always a little fun
to me year to year of how much always around
this time is when we get win totals awards get posted.
I felt like last year, Ben, I had a list
of probably six bets that I was ready to fire
on as soon as stuff opened. They were near numbers
that I expected on them, were bets right.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Away for me. Just not the same this year, win
totals and awards not.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I've made a couple bets, but nothing that that uh, nothing,
I'm going crazy over. I was looking at the Spurs
over was going to interested to see what their win
total was going to be. Said at was set a
couple wins higher than I thought it was going to be.
So backed off of.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That one thirty five and a half, Yeah, thirty five
and a half.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
I think actually the way I'm gonna approach that is
when we get alternate win totals open. We talk about
it a lot. In the NFL, all win to just
as valuable, if not more. In the NBA, that's one
I'll probably still bet, but I'll just bet. I'll bet
over on the all tigh, just just banking on them
having a ridiculously good season. Hopefully I'll probably make that.
The Grizzlies I might get involved with still as well.
(08:16):
But where I actually ended up going to is at
the bottom of the board here, and it is with
the Brooklyn Nets. We talked about this a little bit
with Drew Dinzic earlier in the week. There are a
couple teams out there, the Nets, the Wizards, possibly the Blazers. Man,
they're gonna they're gonna be packing it in early. These
teams are very devoid of talent, especially the Brooklyn Nets.
That roster is really really weak. And when you do
(08:37):
have someone like Cooper Flag coming up in the NBA
draft next year, this is back there. This is not
this past year. There is yeah, there is something actually
worth chasing in the NBA draft. Obviously, you got to
deal with the lottery system still, but there's gonna be
some incentive for some.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Of those teams that you're seeing with those low win totals.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
To go low. This is so funny how the bottom
of the NBA standings wintle it wise, it seems like
osmakers can never price these guys enough. It's just the
reality of taking in the NBA
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