July 10, 2021 • 33 mins
In this episode of Hardwood Handicappers JVT gives you his warning on betting a team down 2-0 going back home in the first quarter and first half before analyzing the matchups for Game 3 of the Finals. What is the plan of attack for the Bucks offense? How do they stop the Suns? JVT also gives insights on player props, market adjustments and more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to the Hardwood Handicappers Podcast. They are a bunch
of guys who never played the game, and they never
got the girls in high school, and they just want
to get us today with your host Jonathan von Tolbol.
See the thing is, you guys, look at me. You
see the backwards at the gray socks and funky outfit,
and you say, now, this guy's a chump. I'm all
(00:23):
right now only on the vs IN podcast network. All right,
what's up to Welcome in. It's another edition of the
Hardwood Handicappers. We are nearing the end of the road
on two games into the NBA Finals. Game three coming
up on Sunday. Really good preview, I think of Game
three on this edition of Hardwood Handicappers, and next week,
(00:45):
as we get closer to the end, potentially we'll see
what the Bucks can do over the next few games.
This will continue throughout the off season. It's a basketball
heavy offseason. Actually it's a basketball heavy summer because we're
gonna have free agency coming up obviously, and be a
draft is what a little over two weeks away. And
we're also going to add a little bit of different
(01:05):
coverage to this as we start to cover more stuff
in the world of basketball. I think. I think Daniel Alvari,
of my guys in the Desert, is gonna be with
us next week. She covers and watches the w n
b A in depth, so we get some thoughts as
the w n b A will be at their All
Start break, and it's a good time to dive into
a sport at the All Star break, recap what happened
to the first half, all that stuff that's potentially next
(01:26):
week and and next week will also have and depends
on where the finals are at two, we'll start to
pick up the NBA Draft coverage as well. Yeah, it's
a it's a busy offseason, and we're gonna cover the
Olympics on this pod too, so there will be a
lot of basketball talk as we move forward. Still on
hard with Andy Kappers. It's still a lot of a
lot of stuff to handicap, right, but it's gonna be
(01:46):
an exciting summer and it's gonna be Look, it's gonna
be a short summer. Man. October is when the regular
season starts. This thing is gonna end and like, let's
say the next week in terms of the regular season,
So we get all of August to do well and
actually know because we're gonna have free agency. And then,
as e Er was joking with the Aaron Rennie professional handicapper,
before you know it, the guide is going to start
(02:08):
yet again in terms of prese previewing next year. All
that being said, Game three is upon us. The Phoenix
Suns have a two nothing series lead and the Bucks
are desperate, right desperate, down to nothing going back home.
As Aaron Rennick says, my favorite trend teams down to
nothing going back home. We have good luck with that.
(02:30):
Look I for those who don't know him, I am
very I don't know I. You shouldn't say I'm very
anti this trend. But at this point, right now, you
was a better right. It's all about you. Always hear
every handicapper say you want value. There's no value of a
a trend like this. You're five eight and one against
the spread. If you bet a team in this situation
first quarter and first half, your five eight and one
against the spread. If you win first quarter, first half
(02:50):
with teams down to nothing this postseason going back home, right,
Because there's a many who will say, well, the trend
only works if you go first quarter, first half well,
if you went forced quarter, first half, your three games
down five eight and one A t s and and
it's not just about the record. To reiterate for you guys, right,
and we're gonna get to the actual matchup stuff in
a little bit, but just to reiterate for those who don't,
it's not just about the record. It is about more
(03:15):
than that. Look at what you the better are buying
into consensus on the Visa website for the first quarter
for the Bucks. Think about this. The Bucks are a
four point favorite first quarter for the Bucks minus two
consensus on Visa's website. And when I say Visan's website,
I mean the books that we track up there on
the website. Right, if you look across the board in
terms of the odds that we have up there, the
(03:36):
books that were on the screen corning A via Don
Best Right, South Point, Circa, Golden Nuggets, Westgate, win Station
Casinos out here in Las Vegas. For those who are
listening in a jurisdiction that does not have stations, Caesar's Mirage,
the consensus is first quarter two and a half. Think
about that. Circa you're laying too, but you're laying a
buck fifteen with that too, right, Westgate, you're laying two
(03:58):
and a half when you're laying two stations in two
and a half. Caesar's two and a half runs to
enough two and a half points in the first quarter
for a game that has a line of four. You're
getting no value consensus on the Visia website for the
first half in this game again, teams down nothing to
nothing going back home always good bet. First quarter, first
half a consensus three and a half here, three and
(04:19):
a half across the board for the first half of
the Milwaukee Bucks, who are laying four for the game.
You are getting zero in terms of value for this
as a better and look, I can you know, we
can talk about it. I mean if you don't, there's
no talking about this. You know. I got some people
and I mentioned yesterday trying to make the case that
this was still just a fine bet. It's not. Again,
(04:42):
it is hard enough to beat a point spread in
any sport. Now you're willingly buying into a tax line.
I'm sorry, it's just not the case. And one of
the people on social media pointed out you can still
lay one and a half of the first half at FanDuel. Yeah,
but you're laying a buck thirty four in the first
half a st to say in the first quarter, excise,
you can still lay one and a half of the
first quarter at vanduel, but you're laying a dollar thirty four.
(05:06):
You want to lay two and a half of the
first half of full point less, that's fine, You're laying
of dollar fifty. And when I responded, you know, it's
kind of hard already to beat minus one ten, like,
why are we why are you laying a buck thirty four?
Buck fifty? I got no response, So you're getting no
deals in following this trend. I know it sucks, hey man,
(05:26):
it used to be the thing to go to. And
here's the other thing too, And this is why again
trends trends. You will hear the number sided that tell
you that this is a trend that is hitting well
over sixty in the NBA postseason. That's fine, but a
lot of that sample size has to do with the
(05:46):
games before the odds makers caught up to this trend
and started taxing you the better like crazy. So just
keep that in mind, and as we move forward throughout
the years, now is the time to start keeping track
of this, right, didn't do it last year because they
were in in a bubble. With these two nothing going
back home situations, you are being taxed to the eyeballs
and it has not been profitable for you at all.
(06:08):
Five eight one against the spread again if you win
first court of first half with teams this postseason down
to nothing and heading back home. So with that in mind,
let's take a look at the game. Phoenix Suns at
the Milwaukee Bucks. Bucks open to three and a half
point favorite with a total of two twenty two as
of this recording. Right now, Bucks across the board four
point favorite with a total of two two and a
half depending on where you shop. Let's just address one
(06:30):
thing really quickly. How much is home court worth in
this series? Right? So let's go with the closing number
of four and a half for Phoenix. Okay, if you're
telling me, which has been pretty consistent, that home field
home court. Sorry, I got football in the barry. I'm
be getting ready for the season. That's the right to
(06:50):
our college football guide. I got not in West duties
yet again. Love Mountain West football, I do, actually, but
it is not the most thrilling of conferences, especially with
the school like you and LV which I went to
and actually kind of enjoy at times for football. Anyway, Um,
I don't even know where I was going with that. Sorry,
(07:10):
I'm getting a little off track here. Um. Oh, yes,
home home court. I accidentally saidt home field. So if
you look at home court, if you look at home
court there at the postseason, it's been worth about two
and a half points, right, it has been consistent across
the board two and a half points. So let's go
to the two games at which we saw in Phoenix.
(07:31):
Fenish closes will say on average four and a half
point favorite at home. Well, if we're doing that, the
Bucks should be at the most a one point favorite here, right,
if you're going from Phoenix minus four and a half,
then on the road it should be Bucks like minus
one at the most. I'll give you one and a
half because it's that desperation spot. But not only did
(07:54):
this open three and a half, market moved all the
way to four. Now, I will say that there is
an argument to be made here that those numbers, despite
the results, that those numbers in Phoenix might have been
a little inflated, right, given everything, like we talked about, right,
Jana is not playing. We said we saw some openers
of five and a half, didn't cover either game, all
that good stuff, But this is quite the swing for
(08:19):
two games in Phoenix in which the Suns were laying
four and a half, two games in which they covered.
Now you're back home when you're catching the exact same
number you were laying in Phoenix. Again, like tracking the
market and keeping an eye, excuse me on these numbers
benefits you as a better because well, I think Milwaukee's
in a much better spot here at home. If I
(08:39):
am betting aside, it would be Phoenix, mainly because of
where we were in the first two games and where
we're at right now, because again, if we swing this
back the other way, if home court is worth two
and a half like it has been all postseason, the
Bucks are catching just one in Phoenix when they go
back for Game five, but they were catching four have
(09:00):
five in the two games prior. So like it's just
it's quite the swing here in terms of the power
rating for Milwaukee. I get the situation that they're in.
I get the fact that they are much you know,
the much desperate, much more desperate team might going back
home down do nothing, but from it just a purely
power rating perspective. Something doesn't jive here, right. Either, the
(09:21):
two numbers in Phoenix were incorrect, which I kind I
kind of tend to lean to here a little bit
again despite the results, or the two numbers were correct
and this one is incorrect, right, But it can't be
both because this is you know, this swing of about
eight points. Right now, you're saying home courts worth life
four and I don't know if that's the case. I mean,
(09:43):
maybe it is. Who knows. Maybe there's nothing separating these
two teams and home courts worth four and that makes
all the difference in the world. But I just how
many home courts are worth four points? Right? I mean
we could talk about Utah, I guess, but I think
that's an over blown home court. And that's more. The
home court advantage of the Utah Jazz have is more
(10:04):
in the regular season, when you're catching a team on
that Denver Utah back to background in the West Coast
trip or whatever it is, like, that's where that home
court comes into play. I get you have really good
fans in Phoenix. Sorry, yeah, I mean, look, if you're
a Son's fan, I'm sure you're a really good person.
That's something of your getting a little nonoxious. Let's put
it that away. I picked you to win the series
those so don't get mad. But regardless, from a number
(10:26):
of perspective, this seems pretty tough and from the total
on the surface, look, we're finally at the point where
I think this total is where it should be, right
if we go to the regular season matchups and where
these totals were. You're talking about closing total in the
first game with twenty six, where inching closer potentially could
be closer to where it should be. I would tend
to still bet this thing over, but this is right
where I made it. Like, look, the first two games
(10:48):
go over the total, and we're gonna get into this
in terms of the matchups, but this is just two
teams that I just don't think have an answer for
one another, right, And so when you look at this
from an offensive standpoint, if the Bucks start to turn
things around, they're and they're not stopping the Phoenix Suns
in my mind. And so you get two games that
go over and we have now, right from an opening
total of to seventeen in game one to an opening
(11:09):
total of two twenty two. So We've seen the adjustments here,
and I would tend to think that that adjustment is
correct after what we watched the first two games in
my preconceived notions coming into this series. Alright, so it
has to change from milwalking. Let's talk about this anothering
for your honest, and that's for sure. Look through four
games to regular season to post season, Janna center, the
(11:32):
compo is just absolutely destroying Phoenix's interior through four games.
How about this? We can do this two ways. One
of them sounds more dramatic and awesome. So I'm gonna
put it this way first, you're honest. Through four games
again to regular two posts has one hundred and forty
two points, forty eight pounds, fifteen assists as forty eight
of seventy eight from the floor and forty four or
sixty one from free throat line. Now putting that as normal,
(11:53):
thirty five and a half points per game, twelve rebounds,
three point seven and says sixty one five percent shooting
and seventy two from the line. So good for your honest.
You shot the ball really well the free throw line.
That's not changing as much as a guy like DeAndre
Ayton has and does deserve or gets and deserves the
credit for improving as a player. The love for Ayton
(12:13):
coming into this series is something I did not understand
right from the m v P standpoint, from being matching
up with Janice. Janice eats this kid lunch every time
they match up, right he he both of those things
can be true. He could be improved and still not
stand a chance Againstrhanna stand to the Kompo, and that
is very much the case there there. If you watched
(12:35):
in that third quarter, there was a time where Phoenix
tried to build that wall against Janice, and it was
Michail Bridges, DeAndre Ayton, and Jay Crowder and there was
a bucket in which all three of them were like
a foot out from the restricted line and Janice met
the wall, lifted and with his insanely long arms just
reached over the wall and scooped lay up to it
and put it in like it was. There was no
(12:57):
stopping Janice. There have been multiple sessions with DeAndre. Aden
has had him on the low block defending him and
Janice has put a shoulder into his chest and finished.
DeAndre Ayton is a great player and he has very
very solid upward momentum, but DeAndre Atan is not stopping
Jannis on to the Kompo. I'm sorry, that's just not
the case. And so if you're honest, if we're talking
(13:17):
about what's changing Fromlwaukee, nothing's changing. You are continuing to
perform at the level of which you are performing, and
you still have another you know, the extra day off, right,
they're not playing on Sunday Saturday. Like these things are
going to help in terms of Jannice's knee getting that
time off. But as we move forward in this series,
there is no changing the game plan here. If you're
Yannis on to the Kompo, the change starts with the
(13:39):
other pieces around Janice. Right. Game one, Milwaukee shot forty
four point four percent from deep, and there are a
bunch of questions after Game one if they could replicate
that or not. And I went on the nightcap with
Tim Murray and I said, yeah, yeah, they can't. Right,
the six best shooting team in the NBA thirty eight
point eight percent from three, and they go out and
they have the game that they do. But let's take
a look at Phoenix to Insily for a quick second,
(14:02):
and we'll build on why I thought they could replicate
that shooting, and why do I think they will be
able to hear? In Games three and four and for
the rest of the series, Phoenix has allowed the sixth
highest rate of wide open attempts of the playoffs. I'll
put it this way, Phoenix has a lot of the
six highest rate of wide open threes of all teams
in the NBA Playoffs. Right, seventeen point nine percent of
(14:22):
opponent attempts have not had a defender within six ft.
But their opponents have shot just thirty six point one
percent on those looks. Now, thirty six point one percent
is not bad, it's not great, but that's still lucky.
When when your opponents are shooting just thirty six percent
from three and there's not a defender within six ft,
(14:45):
I mean, that's something that is going to be working
in your favor and it shouldn't be right, it should
be a little bit worse than that. And if you
go to Game two, how about this. According to the
tracking data, Milwaukee had fourteen wide open attempts from deep
against Phoenix. They hit four of them. So think about
that from that perspective, right, Because this was a game
in which you have a single handedly closed to out
(15:06):
of four or five point game multiple times, and then
you have your team missing ten wide open threes in
that contest, just twenty eight point six. Those shots need
to go down, and they're going to continue to come right.
As we noted, Phoenix has given up these wide open
looks throughout the postseason. And it totally go back to
the Clippers series. How many times were you watching that
series and going, come on, Clippers getting wide open looks
(15:27):
and just not hit him. This is gonna be something
that the Milwaukee Bucks still can continue to do here
in this series. Right game two, Chris Middleton one or
six from three point range, Drew Holiday one or three
from three point range, Brook Lopez oh two from three
point range. Run for one or three from three point range.
When Pat Connaughton is the only player to hit multiple
(15:48):
three point attempts, you're gonna have a problem. You're gonna
have a really big problem. So the three point shooting,
it has to improve, and you would expect it to
improve to a certain extent just given the fact that
the Phoenix Suns have been giving up the wide open
looks that they have at the rate that they have,
the fact that this is a team that shoots relatively
better than the numbers that they put up at Game two. Right,
Middleton Holiday Forbes, those shots will go down. Role players
(16:11):
play better at home, so I would expect the better
shooting performance here from Game three from Milwaukee Bucks. And
there needs to be more of a presence inside four
feet outside of the honest, Right, the Suns are twenty
four and rim defense of the regular season, they allowed
the second most attempts at the rim of the postseason
coming into this series. Milwaukee needs to and should be
able to exploit both but a combined thirty four fifty five,
(16:31):
which is twelve shooting fouls drawn within four feet in
this series, and a lot of that is honest. You
need more drill penetration and that's limited on this roster,
so it falls on Holiday. Right. Holiday has only made
five attempts in the restricted area in this series through
two games, only five. He's got to be better, and
it exploits a weakness, and when you start to attack
the rim, it has the added bonus of forcing eight
(16:52):
and into action of potentially getting him into foul trouble.
So if those are if you're Milwaukee, those are the
corrections you're making. The shooting should correct itself. And if
you're Drew Holiday, who's been extremely disappointing and Eric Bledsoe
like and we talked about being aggressive, there's a difference
with me being aggressive, it just being better, right. I
(17:12):
think it was jeff Ane Gunder who said it, like, yeah,
he's aggressive, that's great. I'd like him to actually make
some of those shots. Drew Holiday has got to start
making some of those shots. This is the Hardwood Handy
Capper's podcast Interact with the show on Twitter, at me
j VT, at Roach, Underscore ninety seven, and at vsin Live.
(17:44):
So this has been pretty bucks heavy right up until
this point in this uh this episode, but this series
right now is all about Milwaukee and what they're able
to do or what they're not able to do, right,
because if you look at what Phoenix has been able
to do. Look, I have been pretty consistent with the
analysis on Phoenix, which is, yeah, I don't know what
the game plan is from Milwaukee. Defensively, you're not stopping
what Phoenix wants to do. Right. Offensive rating for the
(18:07):
Phoenix Suns in this series one nineteen point eight, it's
just an offense that is made to exploit everything about Milwaukee.
So if you're coming into this thinking, buds of Moron,
he's got to fix this. They gotta stop Phoenix. I
don't think there really is much of a way to
stop Phoenix outside of the Sun's having a relatively poor
shooting night. Through the two games combined, the Suns have
(18:27):
killed the Bucks from mid range Jeric combined sixty five.
It's forty seven point seven percent for the mid range
area of the floor Chris Paul for the series fourteen
to twenty four, and mid range shots Devin book are
not as efficient, but still relatively solid ten of twenty three.
It's not gonna change, right, what the Suns are able
to do from an offensive standpoint. Milwaukee went to their
(18:49):
drop coverage a lot more in Game two, and you
saw those shots start to fall for Devin Booker. Well,
and and here's the thing, right, and that's there's the
difference between Game one and Game two, which you specify
that in game two we saw a lot more drop coverage,
right the the defense that the Milwaukee Bucks ran for
a majority of the regular season. So what happened, Well,
(19:09):
remember the Bucks in the regular season gave up the
third most wide open looks from beyond the ark. Right.
So then you see in game two where they revert
back to their more traditional sense of playing defense like
we're used to seeing them. And what happens. The Milwaukee
Bucks give up a craft ton of threes to the
Phoenix Suns. Right, Sons go combined forty cleaning the glass
(19:31):
has it as because there was a heave at the
end I think it was at the halftime one of
the quarters. Right, you take those out generally, but still
the lesson there was the Sun's hit twenty three pointers, right,
and so you you go to that drop coverage and
you say, okay, well man, that didn't really work out, right,
(19:51):
but there were things that did kind of work to
a certain extent. Right. One, do you ask yourself, Okay,
are the Sun's going to shoot fifty from three on
those looks? Again, especially on the road, would tend to
think probably not. They can still have a good shooting night,
but probably not. And then again, when you think about
the fact that the Bucks cut this down to a
(20:11):
four point game multiple times, this is why it is
more about Milwaukee and what they can do offensively, supposed
with the Sons are gonna do because the Suns are
gonna do what they're doing, right, So you go back
to looking at that. So okay, so they play drop coverage,
Chris Paul, Devin Booker and the Suns shoot the lights
out from three, shoot the lights absolute lights out. Going
(20:32):
back to those frequency of wide open looks allowed if
you're playing that drop coverage if you're Milwaukee, they also
exploit that mid range area of the floor and that
drop coverage fifty one in that game, specifically seventeen of
thirty two. So let's say you go back to switch
them all, baby, all right, Well, if you switch them
all and then you're going to get times where like
(20:54):
they were, like they were switching the one five matchups
for some reason, and Brook Lopez was getting cooked by
Chris Paul and game one quite a bit. There's just
when you look at everything, right, there was just so
many issues for this Bucks team in terms of what
they can do defensively that they just don't think there
is much in a way of stopping the Phoenix Suns.
(21:16):
It's about improving your offense to the point where you
can match up and keep up with them. It's by
the way, it's how the two regular season games played
out between these two. Right, That's why I you know,
I pushed back a little bit. I was talking with
any of my ulo about this when I was filling
in on my guys on Monday, where it's like, a,
you know, the regular season doesn't matter. We we got
to eliminate that man. We do. The first time these
(21:39):
two teams met in February, it was final the Suns.
There should be. The Bucks average DRED five point eight
points per one hundred possessions. The Suns had a DY
nine point five. When they met again in April, it
was lost from Milwaukee and overtime. One fifteen offensive rating
for Milwaukee, one four teen point three for the Phoenix Suns.
(22:02):
These two teams, from an offensive and defensive standpoint, there's
just no real answer for either one. Right. The Suns
have struggled to keep your honest out of the painted area.
He's got a hundred forty two points in the four games.
The Bucks drop cover, switch them all. Whatever it is
that is not going to work against this Sun's offense.
So it's just about improving your offense. If you're the
Milwaukee Bucks, and I know there's a lot of sold,
(22:25):
run the numbers really quickly because I saw a lot
of well, you still gotta play Janice at the five.
But again this goes back to the absence of Dante DiVincenzo.
If you're going to play Nice at the five, that
means you need one more guard out there. You can't
roll out Janice. Bobby Portis right, um, p J. Tucker,
(22:47):
pat Conaton, Chris Middleton, and then Drew Holiday right because like,
there's no ball handling in a lineup like that, there's none.
It's only Drew Holiday, that's about it. There's no facilitating
outside of that. That's a really big problem. And look
in the regular seats in the honest minutes at center
were absolutely tremendous according to Cleaning the Glass. When honest
is that center one sixteen point five offensive rating and
(23:07):
a one third teen point seven. Oh wait no, that's
a net rating of plus two point eight. So the honest,
that's the honest had center minutes. Well, it gives you
a little bit more flexibility. It's not like they're blowing
teams out of the water. And here's the thing, going
back to the original point, the box most optimal small
ball lineup Drew Holiday, Dante Devincenzo, pat Conaton, Chris Middleton
(23:32):
and Jannison to the combo. Right. Look, just think about
that line up, right, Drew Holiday, Dante Devincenzo, pat Conaton,
Chris Middleton and Janice at the five. Those are two
rock solid ball handlers, and Drew Holiday and Dante de
Vincenzo a secondary ball handler in pat Conaton, and then
you have Chris Middleton playing the four like that's that's
(23:52):
really good. And then we go to what we might
see in this series. Right, and these are really short
sample sizes, so keep that in mind. But what about
a Janison to the coompo? P J. Tucker, pat Conason,
Brent Forbes Drew Holiday lineup a negative twenty eight point
three net rating That most optimal lineup that I talked about, Holiday, Defenceenzo,
pat Connating, Chris Middleton and Honest plus fifty one point five.
(24:15):
All of the optimal small ball lineups that the Bucks
rolled out in the regular season had one thing in common,
and it was that Dante de Vincenzo was part of them.
They missed Dante DiVincenzo big time. And it's really easy
to sit back and go Bud needs to play be
honest at the five. But the way that this team
(24:35):
is constructed at this point right now, you just don't
have a secondary guard that you can put out there.
You don't because if it's Jeff Tigue, if it's Brent Forbes,
both are kind of defensive liabilities. Auntigue is a little
bit of a chucker, or at least he has been
in this series. His offense has been an absolute nightmare.
Portius is your small is a center power forward type
(24:56):
right doesn't really fit well next to honest into the
cool bo p. J Tucker camped out in the corner
might provide you something defensively, but he gives you next
to nothing in terms of offensive flexibility. He's just gonna
be camped out waiting for corner shots. And you go
from there. Right there isn't there is, There's It's easy
to say I should put it that way. It's easy
to demand that the Bucks play the small ball lineup
(25:18):
and try to stifle with the Phoenix sun spring to
the table, when in reality, I don't want to say
it's a possible, but it's just not something that is
going to work out. It's just not so we will
and I don't doubt that we'll see it. We'll probably
see it a little bit more in game three, but
just keep that in mind. Zom be forward that from
a matchup standpoint. They need Dante DiVincenzo out there and
(25:40):
he's not coming back. This is the Hardwood Handycappers Podcast
only on the vs IN podcast network, right, last little
(26:00):
facet on this Game three preview. Let's take a look
at some of these player props. First off, Mcale Bridges. Man,
this kid is great for those who hadn't watched If
you hadn't watched Michale Bridges before, now, Micaal Bridges is
going to be a stud in the NBA. And you
know they had to quote the other day he you know,
he wants to be known as more of a three
and D guy, more than a three in D guy.
(26:20):
At this point he kind of is, but he's he's
rock solid, dude, rock solid. Twenty seven points in game two,
thirty eight minutes, was eight to fifteen from the floor,
seven rebounds. I am. I will say this now, I
cannot eliminate the thought from my brain right because we're
gonna get the finals MVP here in a moment, I'll
save it. I'll save it from Mikail Bridges. Right. But
(26:42):
I bring up with Hial Bridges because the one player
prop that I've been consistent on the the first two
games got it one more time. That minus won fifty
over the one and a half three points and was
made from Michale Bridges. He's hit five so far in
two games. Through the two games, he's shooting forty one
point seven percent. It just speaks to the matchup. Micaal
Bridge is gonna get those three point shots. He's a
forty three point shooter. He is going to hit them.
He is very solid in that role. So in a
(27:05):
dollar fifty on the road is my ceiling and the
markets adjusted, markets adjusted big time. Game one opened up
a dollar twenty, Game two opened up a dollar thirty,
and then game three we saw the real bump. We
were talking about a dollar fifty some spots of dollar sixty.
Dollar fifty is the ceiling. So if it gets a
little bit more expensive after this, if he hits this again,
(27:26):
that's where we take a step back and see if
maybe there's gonna be adjustment back the other way. Whatever
it is. But Michael Bridges over those three and a
half of you or see me over one and a
half made threes if you get that buck fifty price,
still a price that I would recommend personally. But you know,
I so I hate to say this, and I told
e Er this on Friday's My Guys in the Desert.
But as you look at some of these player props
(27:47):
right in terms of points, for example, Janisan to Kumpo
thirty two and a half, slightly shaded to the under
a minus one twenty, the point total is getting in
the area, which that's a really high point total. But again,
when you're talking about through four games bridging thirty five
and a half points against this team having no answer
for him whatsoever, what are they gonna do? We tend
(28:09):
to lean over there. But here's the direction I kind
of wanted to go. Fade is always so mean, right,
Fate is always Fate is always a a word that
makes it I feel like it makes you if it
sounds like you just think the player sucks and you
just want to bet against him, And that's not the
case here. After game one, I was on the nightcap
(28:31):
and Tim was asking me, hey, DeAndre Ayden, we planned
this going forward over right at two and nineteen in
game one? And my thought was, you don't I don't
think so. Right, like this, it's not the mismatch that
you think it is. Like, yes, if the Bucks starts
switching everything, if we know that they're gonna start switching
(28:52):
every single little thing, then yeah, I mean it might
be worth it. In game one, I think what was
lost on a lot of people when watching that. I
think a lot of people are like, told you, DeAndre Atan,
I'm just gonna eat up brook Lopez. That's not what
happened though, right the Bucks were switching everything. He was
scoring buckets and Drew Holiday, he was scoring buckets on
Chris Middleton. Wow, I had a brain fart there, right,
(29:14):
Like that's a lot of his points were coming in
that direction. And yes, he did come in and he
did have some good possessions against a brook Lopez type.
But don't get it twisted that DeAndre a. In the
game one, a lot of the point production was on
second chance points and unexploiting smaller matchups. I think going forward,
like as you saw in this last game, if the
Bucks are going to commit themselves to this drop coverage
(29:37):
like they did in Game two for the most part,
then I think this is this means a series that
is gonna look very similar to what DeAndre Aden looked
like in Game two, which is ten points, eleven rebounds,
and so fading is probably not the proper term. But
if you're telling me, hey, fifteen and a half points
(29:59):
on deond to Etan, I'd go under more often than
not on that. And you can get a small dog
price on that, and spots, you know, like Vandel's got
it slightly shaded to the over, you can go under
fifteen and a half. The under fifteen and a half
is a slightly favorite over at spots like draft Kings
as well. But like, that's to me, that is where
I want to go, right. I want to go in
that direction with a DeAndre Atan type under some of
(30:20):
these point total problems, just because I think the Bucks
are going to commit themselves too. If we are going
to lose, let's lose the way we got here, right,
Let's play some drop coverage. We don't need to switch everything,
we don't need to do those one five matchups and
allow DeAndre Atan to beat us up down low. Let's
eliminate eighting from the game, and then let's just pound
him on the other side from the offensive standpoint. And
(30:42):
I think that's going to be the game plan going forward.
So with that, I think that was Those are some
of the props really that kind of stuck out from
a player prop perspective. You know, Devin Booker in terms
of the May threes, there's a lot of you know,
there's you know, he hit four of them. The shooting
has been up and down for him. His wayr prop
in terms of May threes and two and a half
shaded to the under a minus. The attempts are going
(31:04):
to be there, right, So that always worries me. He's
going to attempt seven to we'll call it ten three
point attempts a game in this series. So now you're
just you're you're just hoping he has a poor shooting
night when you're betting under those and that's look, three
is a lot. Three is a lot more than people think.
But I just the attempts always turned you off because
he is going to be putting those things up, right.
(31:27):
Chris Paul, same thing. I'm surprised how much more heavily
shaded it is under for Chris Paul minus. I know again,
Chris Paul is not one to throw up a lot
of three point attempts, but he did have five in
game two, and he has been shooting the ball extremely well.
And the plus one fifty over two and a half
the two and a half really turns me off. Obviously
(31:48):
if it's one and a half, that's something we're looking
at with Paul, but just surprised how heavily shaded it
is to the under right, you get a little bit
meteor on the dog price for the over, and you're
starting to get me intrigue, but still not there quite yet,
But I think that's the way from a player proper perspective,
that's the way. You know, Still on the kill bridges
over the one and a half at minus one fifty,
if that's the price, you can get the under und
yonder at and about fifteen and a half, and then
(32:10):
from there, you know, not many opinions in terms in
terms of the player props. If you get like and
it's not out there, there's no shot it's out there,
you can convince me that thirty and a half on
your honest is a play worthy over. But again we're
up to thirty two and a half in some spots
I know open thirty one and a half on his
player prop. This is just gonna be a big series,
for honest, man, it is. It's gonna be a really
(32:31):
big series free honest, and I just don't see through
four games there has been nothing that has told me
anything otherwise that it's going to change. All right, We'll
be back next week and we'll I'll be back, and
again I apologize for those who are still listening right now. Uh,
moving other stuff off the court as they say that
change things up a little bit. But get back and ready,
(32:53):
and I think we have some good things planning for
the offseason and the how exotic and how much more
of this podcast is gonna open up? You know, a
a podcast for the NBA that only comes out once
a week is a little tough, right, It's a little tough.
But in the off season, I think we'll really kind
of start to hit our stride here with these pods,
and we'll get a little bit more exotic. I'm gonna
be covering Summer League already credential for that, so that
(33:15):
opens up some doors for some podcasts out there as well.
But that'll be a lot of fun. Like rate reviews,
subscribe always appreciate it, and I'm on follow the money
duty all next week. So hopefully you tune in
Welcome to the Hardwood Handicappers Podcast. They are a bunch
of guys who never played the game, and they never
got the girls in high school, and they just want
to get us today with your host Jonathan von Tolbol.
See the thing is, you guys, look at me. You
see the backwards at the gray socks and funky outfit,
and you say, now, this guy's a chump. I'm all
(00:23):
right now only on the vs IN podcast network. All right,
what's up to Welcome in. It's another edition of the
Hardwood Handicappers. We are nearing the end of the road
on two games into the NBA Finals. Game three coming
up on Sunday. Really good preview, I think of Game
three on this edition of Hardwood Handicappers, and next week,
(00:45):
as we get closer to the end, potentially we'll see
what the Bucks can do over the next few games.
This will continue throughout the off season. It's a basketball
heavy offseason. Actually it's a basketball heavy summer because we're
gonna have free agency coming up obviously, and be a
draft is what a little over two weeks away. And
we're also going to add a little bit of different
(01:05):
coverage to this as we start to cover more stuff
in the world of basketball. I think. I think Daniel Alvari,
of my guys in the Desert, is gonna be with
us next week. She covers and watches the w n
b A in depth, so we get some thoughts as
the w n b A will be at their All
Start break, and it's a good time to dive into
a sport at the All Star break, recap what happened
to the first half, all that stuff that's potentially next
(01:26):
week and and next week will also have and depends
on where the finals are at two, we'll start to
pick up the NBA Draft coverage as well. Yeah, it's
a it's a busy offseason, and we're gonna cover the
Olympics on this pod too, so there will be a
lot of basketball talk as we move forward. Still on
hard with Andy Kappers. It's still a lot of a
lot of stuff to handicap, right, but it's gonna be
(01:46):
an exciting summer and it's gonna be Look, it's gonna
be a short summer. Man. October is when the regular
season starts. This thing is gonna end and like, let's
say the next week in terms of the regular season,
So we get all of August to do well and
actually know because we're gonna have free agency. And then,
as e Er was joking with the Aaron Rennie professional handicapper,
before you know it, the guide is going to start
(02:08):
yet again in terms of prese previewing next year. All
that being said, Game three is upon us. The Phoenix
Suns have a two nothing series lead and the Bucks
are desperate, right desperate, down to nothing going back home.
As Aaron Rennick says, my favorite trend teams down to
nothing going back home. We have good luck with that.
(02:30):
Look I for those who don't know him, I am
very I don't know I. You shouldn't say I'm very
anti this trend. But at this point, right now, you
was a better right. It's all about you. Always hear
every handicapper say you want value. There's no value of a
a trend like this. You're five eight and one against
the spread. If you bet a team in this situation
first quarter and first half, your five eight and one
against the spread. If you win first quarter, first half
(02:50):
with teams down to nothing this postseason going back home, right,
Because there's a many who will say, well, the trend
only works if you go first quarter, first half well,
if you went forced quarter, first half, your three games
down five eight and one A t s and and
it's not just about the record. To reiterate for you guys, right,
and we're gonna get to the actual matchup stuff in
a little bit, but just to reiterate for those who don't,
it's not just about the record. It is about more
(03:15):
than that. Look at what you the better are buying
into consensus on the Visa website for the first quarter
for the Bucks. Think about this. The Bucks are a
four point favorite first quarter for the Bucks minus two
consensus on Visa's website. And when I say Visan's website,
I mean the books that we track up there on
the website. Right, if you look across the board in
terms of the odds that we have up there, the
(03:36):
books that were on the screen corning A via Don
Best Right, South Point, Circa, Golden Nuggets, Westgate, win Station
Casinos out here in Las Vegas. For those who are
listening in a jurisdiction that does not have stations, Caesar's Mirage,
the consensus is first quarter two and a half. Think
about that. Circa you're laying too, but you're laying a
buck fifteen with that too, right, Westgate, you're laying two
(03:58):
and a half when you're laying two stations in two
and a half. Caesar's two and a half runs to
enough two and a half points in the first quarter
for a game that has a line of four. You're
getting no value consensus on the Visia website for the
first half in this game again, teams down nothing to
nothing going back home always good bet. First quarter, first
half a consensus three and a half here, three and
(04:19):
a half across the board for the first half of
the Milwaukee Bucks, who are laying four for the game.
You are getting zero in terms of value for this
as a better and look, I can you know, we
can talk about it. I mean if you don't, there's
no talking about this. You know. I got some people
and I mentioned yesterday trying to make the case that
this was still just a fine bet. It's not. Again,
(04:42):
it is hard enough to beat a point spread in
any sport. Now you're willingly buying into a tax line.
I'm sorry, it's just not the case. And one of
the people on social media pointed out you can still
lay one and a half of the first half at FanDuel. Yeah,
but you're laying a buck thirty four in the first
half a st to say in the first quarter, excise,
you can still lay one and a half of the
first quarter at vanduel, but you're laying a dollar thirty four.
(05:06):
You want to lay two and a half of the
first half of full point less, that's fine, You're laying
of dollar fifty. And when I responded, you know, it's
kind of hard already to beat minus one ten, like,
why are we why are you laying a buck thirty four?
Buck fifty? I got no response, So you're getting no
deals in following this trend. I know it sucks, hey man,
(05:26):
it used to be the thing to go to. And
here's the other thing too, And this is why again
trends trends. You will hear the number sided that tell
you that this is a trend that is hitting well
over sixty in the NBA postseason. That's fine, but a
lot of that sample size has to do with the
(05:46):
games before the odds makers caught up to this trend
and started taxing you the better like crazy. So just
keep that in mind, and as we move forward throughout
the years, now is the time to start keeping track
of this, right, didn't do it last year because they
were in in a bubble. With these two nothing going
back home situations, you are being taxed to the eyeballs
and it has not been profitable for you at all.
(06:08):
Five eight one against the spread again if you win
first court of first half with teams this postseason down
to nothing and heading back home. So with that in mind,
let's take a look at the game. Phoenix Suns at
the Milwaukee Bucks. Bucks open to three and a half
point favorite with a total of two twenty two as
of this recording. Right now, Bucks across the board four
point favorite with a total of two two and a
half depending on where you shop. Let's just address one
(06:30):
thing really quickly. How much is home court worth in
this series? Right? So let's go with the closing number
of four and a half for Phoenix. Okay, if you're
telling me, which has been pretty consistent, that home field
home court. Sorry, I got football in the barry. I'm
be getting ready for the season. That's the right to
(06:50):
our college football guide. I got not in West duties
yet again. Love Mountain West football, I do, actually, but
it is not the most thrilling of conferences, especially with
the school like you and LV which I went to
and actually kind of enjoy at times for football. Anyway, Um,
I don't even know where I was going with that. Sorry,
(07:10):
I'm getting a little off track here. Um. Oh, yes,
home home court. I accidentally saidt home field. So if
you look at home court, if you look at home
court there at the postseason, it's been worth about two
and a half points, right, it has been consistent across
the board two and a half points. So let's go
to the two games at which we saw in Phoenix.
(07:31):
Fenish closes will say on average four and a half
point favorite at home. Well, if we're doing that, the
Bucks should be at the most a one point favorite here, right,
if you're going from Phoenix minus four and a half,
then on the road it should be Bucks like minus
one at the most. I'll give you one and a
half because it's that desperation spot. But not only did
(07:54):
this open three and a half, market moved all the
way to four. Now, I will say that there is
an argument to be made here that those numbers, despite
the results, that those numbers in Phoenix might have been
a little inflated, right, given everything, like we talked about, right,
Jana is not playing. We said we saw some openers
of five and a half, didn't cover either game, all
that good stuff, But this is quite the swing for
(08:19):
two games in Phoenix in which the Suns were laying
four and a half, two games in which they covered.
Now you're back home when you're catching the exact same
number you were laying in Phoenix. Again, like tracking the
market and keeping an eye, excuse me on these numbers
benefits you as a better because well, I think Milwaukee's
in a much better spot here at home. If I
(08:39):
am betting aside, it would be Phoenix, mainly because of
where we were in the first two games and where
we're at right now, because again, if we swing this
back the other way, if home court is worth two
and a half like it has been all postseason, the
Bucks are catching just one in Phoenix when they go
back for Game five, but they were catching four have
(09:00):
five in the two games prior. So like it's just
it's quite the swing here in terms of the power
rating for Milwaukee. I get the situation that they're in.
I get the fact that they are much you know,
the much desperate, much more desperate team might going back
home down do nothing, but from it just a purely
power rating perspective. Something doesn't jive here, right. Either, the
(09:21):
two numbers in Phoenix were incorrect, which I kind I
kind of tend to lean to here a little bit
again despite the results, or the two numbers were correct
and this one is incorrect, right, But it can't be
both because this is you know, this swing of about
eight points. Right now, you're saying home courts worth life
four and I don't know if that's the case. I mean,
(09:43):
maybe it is. Who knows. Maybe there's nothing separating these
two teams and home courts worth four and that makes
all the difference in the world. But I just how
many home courts are worth four points? Right? I mean
we could talk about Utah, I guess, but I think
that's an over blown home court. And that's more. The
home court advantage of the Utah Jazz have is more
(10:04):
in the regular season, when you're catching a team on
that Denver Utah back to background in the West Coast
trip or whatever it is, like, that's where that home
court comes into play. I get you have really good
fans in Phoenix. Sorry, yeah, I mean, look, if you're
a Son's fan, I'm sure you're a really good person.
That's something of your getting a little nonoxious. Let's put
it that away. I picked you to win the series
those so don't get mad. But regardless, from a number
(10:26):
of perspective, this seems pretty tough and from the total
on the surface, look, we're finally at the point where
I think this total is where it should be, right
if we go to the regular season matchups and where
these totals were. You're talking about closing total in the
first game with twenty six, where inching closer potentially could
be closer to where it should be. I would tend
to still bet this thing over, but this is right
where I made it. Like, look, the first two games
(10:48):
go over the total, and we're gonna get into this
in terms of the matchups, but this is just two
teams that I just don't think have an answer for
one another, right, And so when you look at this
from an offensive standpoint, if the Bucks start to turn
things around, they're and they're not stopping the Phoenix Suns
in my mind. And so you get two games that
go over and we have now, right from an opening
total of to seventeen in game one to an opening
(11:09):
total of two twenty two. So We've seen the adjustments here,
and I would tend to think that that adjustment is
correct after what we watched the first two games in
my preconceived notions coming into this series. Alright, so it
has to change from milwalking. Let's talk about this anothering
for your honest, and that's for sure. Look through four
games to regular season to post season, Janna center, the
(11:32):
compo is just absolutely destroying Phoenix's interior through four games.
How about this? We can do this two ways. One
of them sounds more dramatic and awesome. So I'm gonna
put it this way first, you're honest. Through four games
again to regular two posts has one hundred and forty
two points, forty eight pounds, fifteen assists as forty eight
of seventy eight from the floor and forty four or
sixty one from free throat line. Now putting that as normal,
(11:53):
thirty five and a half points per game, twelve rebounds,
three point seven and says sixty one five percent shooting
and seventy two from the line. So good for your honest.
You shot the ball really well the free throw line.
That's not changing as much as a guy like DeAndre
Ayton has and does deserve or gets and deserves the
credit for improving as a player. The love for Ayton
(12:13):
coming into this series is something I did not understand
right from the m v P standpoint, from being matching
up with Janice. Janice eats this kid lunch every time
they match up, right he he both of those things
can be true. He could be improved and still not
stand a chance Againstrhanna stand to the Kompo, and that
is very much the case there there. If you watched
(12:35):
in that third quarter, there was a time where Phoenix
tried to build that wall against Janice, and it was
Michail Bridges, DeAndre Ayton, and Jay Crowder and there was
a bucket in which all three of them were like
a foot out from the restricted line and Janice met
the wall, lifted and with his insanely long arms just
reached over the wall and scooped lay up to it
and put it in like it was. There was no
(12:57):
stopping Janice. There have been multiple sessions with DeAndre. Aden
has had him on the low block defending him and
Janice has put a shoulder into his chest and finished.
DeAndre Ayton is a great player and he has very
very solid upward momentum, but DeAndre Atan is not stopping
Jannis on to the Kompo. I'm sorry, that's just not
the case. And so if you're honest, if we're talking
(13:17):
about what's changing Fromlwaukee, nothing's changing. You are continuing to
perform at the level of which you are performing, and
you still have another you know, the extra day off, right,
they're not playing on Sunday Saturday. Like these things are
going to help in terms of Jannice's knee getting that
time off. But as we move forward in this series,
there is no changing the game plan here. If you're
Yannis on to the Kompo, the change starts with the
(13:39):
other pieces around Janice. Right. Game one, Milwaukee shot forty
four point four percent from deep, and there are a
bunch of questions after Game one if they could replicate
that or not. And I went on the nightcap with
Tim Murray and I said, yeah, yeah, they can't. Right,
the six best shooting team in the NBA thirty eight
point eight percent from three, and they go out and
they have the game that they do. But let's take
a look at Phoenix to Insily for a quick second,
(14:02):
and we'll build on why I thought they could replicate
that shooting, and why do I think they will be
able to hear? In Games three and four and for
the rest of the series, Phoenix has allowed the sixth
highest rate of wide open attempts of the playoffs. I'll
put it this way, Phoenix has a lot of the
six highest rate of wide open threes of all teams
in the NBA Playoffs. Right, seventeen point nine percent of
(14:22):
opponent attempts have not had a defender within six ft.
But their opponents have shot just thirty six point one
percent on those looks. Now, thirty six point one percent
is not bad, it's not great, but that's still lucky.
When when your opponents are shooting just thirty six percent
from three and there's not a defender within six ft,
(14:45):
I mean, that's something that is going to be working
in your favor and it shouldn't be right, it should
be a little bit worse than that. And if you
go to Game two, how about this. According to the
tracking data, Milwaukee had fourteen wide open attempts from deep
against Phoenix. They hit four of them. So think about
that from that perspective, right, Because this was a game
in which you have a single handedly closed to out
(15:06):
of four or five point game multiple times, and then
you have your team missing ten wide open threes in
that contest, just twenty eight point six. Those shots need
to go down, and they're going to continue to come right.
As we noted, Phoenix has given up these wide open
looks throughout the postseason. And it totally go back to
the Clippers series. How many times were you watching that
series and going, come on, Clippers getting wide open looks
(15:27):
and just not hit him. This is gonna be something
that the Milwaukee Bucks still can continue to do here
in this series. Right game two, Chris Middleton one or
six from three point range, Drew Holiday one or three
from three point range, Brook Lopez oh two from three
point range. Run for one or three from three point range.
When Pat Connaughton is the only player to hit multiple
(15:48):
three point attempts, you're gonna have a problem. You're gonna
have a really big problem. So the three point shooting,
it has to improve, and you would expect it to
improve to a certain extent just given the fact that
the Phoenix Suns have been giving up the wide open
looks that they have at the rate that they have,
the fact that this is a team that shoots relatively
better than the numbers that they put up at Game two. Right,
Middleton Holiday Forbes, those shots will go down. Role players
(16:11):
play better at home, so I would expect the better
shooting performance here from Game three from Milwaukee Bucks. And
there needs to be more of a presence inside four
feet outside of the honest, Right, the Suns are twenty
four and rim defense of the regular season, they allowed
the second most attempts at the rim of the postseason
coming into this series. Milwaukee needs to and should be
able to exploit both but a combined thirty four fifty five,
(16:31):
which is twelve shooting fouls drawn within four feet in
this series, and a lot of that is honest. You
need more drill penetration and that's limited on this roster,
so it falls on Holiday. Right. Holiday has only made
five attempts in the restricted area in this series through
two games, only five. He's got to be better, and
it exploits a weakness, and when you start to attack
the rim, it has the added bonus of forcing eight
(16:52):
and into action of potentially getting him into foul trouble.
So if those are if you're Milwaukee, those are the
corrections you're making. The shooting should correct itself. And if
you're Drew Holiday, who's been extremely disappointing and Eric Bledsoe
like and we talked about being aggressive, there's a difference
with me being aggressive, it just being better, right. I
(17:12):
think it was jeff Ane Gunder who said it, like, yeah,
he's aggressive, that's great. I'd like him to actually make
some of those shots. Drew Holiday has got to start
making some of those shots. This is the Hardwood Handy
Capper's podcast Interact with the show on Twitter, at me
j VT, at Roach, Underscore ninety seven, and at vsin Live.
(17:44):
So this has been pretty bucks heavy right up until
this point in this uh this episode, but this series
right now is all about Milwaukee and what they're able
to do or what they're not able to do, right,
because if you look at what Phoenix has been able
to do. Look, I have been pretty consistent with the
analysis on Phoenix, which is, yeah, I don't know what
the game plan is from Milwaukee. Defensively, you're not stopping
what Phoenix wants to do. Right. Offensive rating for the
(18:07):
Phoenix Suns in this series one nineteen point eight, it's
just an offense that is made to exploit everything about Milwaukee.
So if you're coming into this thinking, buds of Moron,
he's got to fix this. They gotta stop Phoenix. I
don't think there really is much of a way to
stop Phoenix outside of the Sun's having a relatively poor
shooting night. Through the two games combined, the Suns have
(18:27):
killed the Bucks from mid range Jeric combined sixty five.
It's forty seven point seven percent for the mid range
area of the floor Chris Paul for the series fourteen
to twenty four, and mid range shots Devin book are
not as efficient, but still relatively solid ten of twenty three.
It's not gonna change, right, what the Suns are able
to do from an offensive standpoint. Milwaukee went to their
(18:49):
drop coverage a lot more in Game two, and you
saw those shots start to fall for Devin Booker. Well,
and and here's the thing, right, and that's there's the
difference between Game one and Game two, which you specify
that in game two we saw a lot more drop coverage,
right the the defense that the Milwaukee Bucks ran for
a majority of the regular season. So what happened, Well,
(19:09):
remember the Bucks in the regular season gave up the
third most wide open looks from beyond the ark. Right.
So then you see in game two where they revert
back to their more traditional sense of playing defense like
we're used to seeing them. And what happens. The Milwaukee
Bucks give up a craft ton of threes to the
Phoenix Suns. Right, Sons go combined forty cleaning the glass
(19:31):
has it as because there was a heave at the
end I think it was at the halftime one of
the quarters. Right, you take those out generally, but still
the lesson there was the Sun's hit twenty three pointers, right,
and so you you go to that drop coverage and
you say, okay, well man, that didn't really work out, right,
(19:51):
but there were things that did kind of work to
a certain extent. Right. One, do you ask yourself, Okay,
are the Sun's going to shoot fifty from three on
those looks? Again, especially on the road, would tend to
think probably not. They can still have a good shooting night,
but probably not. And then again, when you think about
the fact that the Bucks cut this down to a
(20:11):
four point game multiple times, this is why it is
more about Milwaukee and what they can do offensively, supposed
with the Sons are gonna do because the Suns are
gonna do what they're doing, right, So you go back
to looking at that. So okay, so they play drop coverage,
Chris Paul, Devin Booker and the Suns shoot the lights
out from three, shoot the lights absolute lights out. Going
(20:32):
back to those frequency of wide open looks allowed if
you're playing that drop coverage if you're Milwaukee, they also
exploit that mid range area of the floor and that
drop coverage fifty one in that game, specifically seventeen of
thirty two. So let's say you go back to switch
them all, baby, all right, Well, if you switch them
all and then you're going to get times where like
(20:54):
they were, like they were switching the one five matchups
for some reason, and Brook Lopez was getting cooked by
Chris Paul and game one quite a bit. There's just
when you look at everything, right, there was just so
many issues for this Bucks team in terms of what
they can do defensively that they just don't think there
is much in a way of stopping the Phoenix Suns.
(21:16):
It's about improving your offense to the point where you
can match up and keep up with them. It's by
the way, it's how the two regular season games played
out between these two. Right, That's why I you know,
I pushed back a little bit. I was talking with
any of my ulo about this when I was filling
in on my guys on Monday, where it's like, a,
you know, the regular season doesn't matter. We we got
to eliminate that man. We do. The first time these
(21:39):
two teams met in February, it was final the Suns.
There should be. The Bucks average DRED five point eight
points per one hundred possessions. The Suns had a DY
nine point five. When they met again in April, it
was lost from Milwaukee and overtime. One fifteen offensive rating
for Milwaukee, one four teen point three for the Phoenix Suns.
(22:02):
These two teams, from an offensive and defensive standpoint, there's
just no real answer for either one. Right. The Suns
have struggled to keep your honest out of the painted area.
He's got a hundred forty two points in the four games.
The Bucks drop cover, switch them all. Whatever it is
that is not going to work against this Sun's offense.
So it's just about improving your offense. If you're the
Milwaukee Bucks, and I know there's a lot of sold,
(22:25):
run the numbers really quickly because I saw a lot
of well, you still gotta play Janice at the five.
But again this goes back to the absence of Dante DiVincenzo.
If you're going to play Nice at the five, that
means you need one more guard out there. You can't
roll out Janice. Bobby Portis right, um, p J. Tucker,
(22:47):
pat Conaton, Chris Middleton, and then Drew Holiday right because like,
there's no ball handling in a lineup like that, there's none.
It's only Drew Holiday, that's about it. There's no facilitating
outside of that. That's a really big problem. And look
in the regular seats in the honest minutes at center
were absolutely tremendous according to Cleaning the Glass. When honest
is that center one sixteen point five offensive rating and
(23:07):
a one third teen point seven. Oh wait no, that's
a net rating of plus two point eight. So the honest,
that's the honest had center minutes. Well, it gives you
a little bit more flexibility. It's not like they're blowing
teams out of the water. And here's the thing, going
back to the original point, the box most optimal small
ball lineup Drew Holiday, Dante Devincenzo, pat Conaton, Chris Middleton
(23:32):
and Jannison to the combo. Right. Look, just think about
that line up, right, Drew Holiday, Dante Devincenzo, pat Conaton,
Chris Middleton and Janice at the five. Those are two
rock solid ball handlers, and Drew Holiday and Dante de
Vincenzo a secondary ball handler in pat Conaton, and then
you have Chris Middleton playing the four like that's that's
(23:52):
really good. And then we go to what we might
see in this series. Right, and these are really short
sample sizes, so keep that in mind. But what about
a Janison to the coompo? P J. Tucker, pat Conason,
Brent Forbes Drew Holiday lineup a negative twenty eight point
three net rating That most optimal lineup that I talked about, Holiday, Defenceenzo,
pat Connating, Chris Middleton and Honest plus fifty one point five.
(24:15):
All of the optimal small ball lineups that the Bucks
rolled out in the regular season had one thing in common,
and it was that Dante de Vincenzo was part of them.
They missed Dante DiVincenzo big time. And it's really easy
to sit back and go Bud needs to play be
honest at the five. But the way that this team
(24:35):
is constructed at this point right now, you just don't
have a secondary guard that you can put out there.
You don't because if it's Jeff Tigue, if it's Brent Forbes,
both are kind of defensive liabilities. Auntigue is a little
bit of a chucker, or at least he has been
in this series. His offense has been an absolute nightmare.
Portius is your small is a center power forward type
(24:56):
right doesn't really fit well next to honest into the
cool bo p. J Tucker camped out in the corner
might provide you something defensively, but he gives you next
to nothing in terms of offensive flexibility. He's just gonna
be camped out waiting for corner shots. And you go
from there. Right there isn't there is, There's It's easy
to say I should put it that way. It's easy
to demand that the Bucks play the small ball lineup
(25:18):
and try to stifle with the Phoenix sun spring to
the table, when in reality, I don't want to say
it's a possible, but it's just not something that is
going to work out. It's just not so we will
and I don't doubt that we'll see it. We'll probably
see it a little bit more in game three, but
just keep that in mind. Zom be forward that from
a matchup standpoint. They need Dante DiVincenzo out there and
(25:40):
he's not coming back. This is the Hardwood Handycappers Podcast
only on the vs IN podcast network, right, last little
(26:00):
facet on this Game three preview. Let's take a look
at some of these player props. First off, Mcale Bridges. Man,
this kid is great for those who hadn't watched If
you hadn't watched Michale Bridges before, now, Micaal Bridges is
going to be a stud in the NBA. And you
know they had to quote the other day he you know,
he wants to be known as more of a three
and D guy, more than a three in D guy.
(26:20):
At this point he kind of is, but he's he's
rock solid, dude, rock solid. Twenty seven points in game two,
thirty eight minutes, was eight to fifteen from the floor,
seven rebounds. I am. I will say this now, I
cannot eliminate the thought from my brain right because we're
gonna get the finals MVP here in a moment, I'll
save it. I'll save it from Mikail Bridges. Right. But
(26:42):
I bring up with Hial Bridges because the one player
prop that I've been consistent on the the first two
games got it one more time. That minus won fifty
over the one and a half three points and was
made from Michale Bridges. He's hit five so far in
two games. Through the two games, he's shooting forty one
point seven percent. It just speaks to the matchup. Micaal
Bridge is gonna get those three point shots. He's a
forty three point shooter. He is going to hit them.
He is very solid in that role. So in a
(27:05):
dollar fifty on the road is my ceiling and the
markets adjusted, markets adjusted big time. Game one opened up
a dollar twenty, Game two opened up a dollar thirty,
and then game three we saw the real bump. We
were talking about a dollar fifty some spots of dollar sixty.
Dollar fifty is the ceiling. So if it gets a
little bit more expensive after this, if he hits this again,
(27:26):
that's where we take a step back and see if
maybe there's gonna be adjustment back the other way. Whatever
it is. But Michael Bridges over those three and a
half of you or see me over one and a
half made threes if you get that buck fifty price,
still a price that I would recommend personally. But you know,
I so I hate to say this, and I told
e Er this on Friday's My Guys in the Desert.
But as you look at some of these player props
(27:47):
right in terms of points, for example, Janisan to Kumpo
thirty two and a half, slightly shaded to the under
a minus one twenty, the point total is getting in
the area, which that's a really high point total. But again,
when you're talking about through four games bridging thirty five
and a half points against this team having no answer
for him whatsoever, what are they gonna do? We tend
(28:09):
to lean over there. But here's the direction I kind
of wanted to go. Fade is always so mean, right,
Fate is always Fate is always a a word that
makes it I feel like it makes you if it
sounds like you just think the player sucks and you
just want to bet against him, And that's not the
case here. After game one, I was on the nightcap
(28:31):
and Tim was asking me, hey, DeAndre Ayden, we planned
this going forward over right at two and nineteen in
game one? And my thought was, you don't I don't
think so. Right, like this, it's not the mismatch that
you think it is. Like, yes, if the Bucks starts
switching everything, if we know that they're gonna start switching
(28:52):
every single little thing, then yeah, I mean it might
be worth it. In game one, I think what was
lost on a lot of people when watching that. I
think a lot of people are like, told you, DeAndre Atan,
I'm just gonna eat up brook Lopez. That's not what
happened though, right the Bucks were switching everything. He was
scoring buckets and Drew Holiday, he was scoring buckets on
Chris Middleton. Wow, I had a brain fart there, right,
(29:14):
Like that's a lot of his points were coming in
that direction. And yes, he did come in and he
did have some good possessions against a brook Lopez type.
But don't get it twisted that DeAndre a. In the
game one, a lot of the point production was on
second chance points and unexploiting smaller matchups. I think going forward,
like as you saw in this last game, if the
Bucks are going to commit themselves to this drop coverage
(29:37):
like they did in Game two for the most part,
then I think this is this means a series that
is gonna look very similar to what DeAndre Aden looked
like in Game two, which is ten points, eleven rebounds,
and so fading is probably not the proper term. But
if you're telling me, hey, fifteen and a half points
(29:59):
on deond to Etan, I'd go under more often than
not on that. And you can get a small dog
price on that, and spots, you know, like Vandel's got
it slightly shaded to the over, you can go under
fifteen and a half. The under fifteen and a half
is a slightly favorite over at spots like draft Kings
as well. But like, that's to me, that is where
I want to go, right. I want to go in
that direction with a DeAndre Atan type under some of
(30:20):
these point total problems, just because I think the Bucks
are going to commit themselves too. If we are going
to lose, let's lose the way we got here, right,
Let's play some drop coverage. We don't need to switch everything,
we don't need to do those one five matchups and
allow DeAndre Atan to beat us up down low. Let's
eliminate eighting from the game, and then let's just pound
him on the other side from the offensive standpoint. And
(30:42):
I think that's going to be the game plan going forward.
So with that, I think that was Those are some
of the props really that kind of stuck out from
a player prop perspective. You know, Devin Booker in terms
of the May threes, there's a lot of you know,
there's you know, he hit four of them. The shooting
has been up and down for him. His wayr prop
in terms of May threes and two and a half
shaded to the under a minus. The attempts are going
(31:04):
to be there, right, So that always worries me. He's
going to attempt seven to we'll call it ten three
point attempts a game in this series. So now you're
just you're you're just hoping he has a poor shooting
night when you're betting under those and that's look, three
is a lot. Three is a lot more than people think.
But I just the attempts always turned you off because
he is going to be putting those things up, right.
(31:27):
Chris Paul, same thing. I'm surprised how much more heavily
shaded it is under for Chris Paul minus. I know again,
Chris Paul is not one to throw up a lot
of three point attempts, but he did have five in
game two, and he has been shooting the ball extremely well.
And the plus one fifty over two and a half
the two and a half really turns me off. Obviously
(31:48):
if it's one and a half, that's something we're looking
at with Paul, but just surprised how heavily shaded it
is to the under right, you get a little bit
meteor on the dog price for the over, and you're
starting to get me intrigue, but still not there quite yet,
But I think that's the way from a player proper perspective,
that's the way. You know, Still on the kill bridges
over the one and a half at minus one fifty,
if that's the price, you can get the under und
yonder at and about fifteen and a half, and then
(32:10):
from there, you know, not many opinions in terms in
terms of the player props. If you get like and
it's not out there, there's no shot it's out there,
you can convince me that thirty and a half on
your honest is a play worthy over. But again we're
up to thirty two and a half in some spots
I know open thirty one and a half on his
player prop. This is just gonna be a big series,
for honest, man, it is. It's gonna be a really
(32:31):
big series free honest, and I just don't see through
four games there has been nothing that has told me
anything otherwise that it's going to change. All right, We'll
be back next week and we'll I'll be back, and
again I apologize for those who are still listening right now. Uh,
moving other stuff off the court as they say that
change things up a little bit. But get back and ready,
(32:53):
and I think we have some good things planning for
the offseason and the how exotic and how much more
of this podcast is gonna open up? You know, a
a podcast for the NBA that only comes out once
a week is a little tough, right, It's a little tough.
But in the off season, I think we'll really kind
of start to hit our stride here with these pods,
and we'll get a little bit more exotic. I'm gonna
be covering Summer League already credential for that, so that
(33:15):
opens up some doors for some podcasts out there as well.
But that'll be a lot of fun. Like rate reviews,
subscribe always appreciate it, and I'm on follow the money
duty all next week. So hopefully you tune in
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