July 19, 2024 • 9 mins
Zach Cohen joined Ben Wilson and Kelley Bydlon to talk about NBA win totals ahead of the upcoming NBA season.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right now, we got to our Progressive guest line. First
guest of the day. Always great to talk some ball
with our guy, Zach Cohen, who joins us right now.
Follow him at betting on X as we go to
the Progressive guest line. Good to see you, Zach. We're
joking during the break that you know, Zach is just
sweating like itf Level one twenty five women's events. Well,
we're all watching the Open Championship, but that's neither here
nor there on the on the tennis side, Summer League
(00:23):
you've been I will give you a shout out because
you gave outs over the This was last week. You
gave out Orlando Magic as a like kind of a
long shot Summer League playing at the very least. I
got off to a good start here. They beat Detroit
by like thirty and Orlando was just looking up to
see where they're at today Magic playing against Brooklyn. They
have been favored here throughout this tournament. So you've been
pretty spot on there, Zach. I will give you credit
(00:44):
because I don't think many people are diving into rosters
on Summer League, but at least a good job by
you on that so far.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, I gave out the Magic and Raptors as futures.
I think both started too. And oh but I think
they both missed the semifinals. I believe that, Oh they're
not yesterday was I think. I think so all teams
play five games, but the first three days deserted, who
would be in the semi finals. So you know, they're
just playing these next two games but they don't really matter.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Well, I take it all back, No, I'm kidding. Yeah, yeah,
I take it off like, yeah, the at least for
the you know, to start out though, I mean, the
betting markets have shown a lot of teams there have
been some kind of wild disparities as far as the
odds go. Well, well, I think most people were kind
of very very casually watching that the Brownie James game
last night. Obviously the big headline. The win totals came
out at least that DK were posted late Sunday. We
(01:30):
are starting to see them populate here in Vegas. Kelly
has made a couple bets that we're going to talk
about in a little bit as far as some as
far as these win totals here for NBA, fascinating that
they come out at this time of year, especially as
it's a dead time in the sports calendar for the
most part, and we have a lot more opportunity to
dive in and I get the breakdowns. What stood out
to you as you started to look at some of
these win totals?
Speaker 2 (01:50):
I thought that the Suns total was a little too low.
I mean, I granted I have a Suns fan, but
you know, they did win forty nine games last year
in a year that people viewed as you know, a
disaster for them, and they have a lot of bad
injury lucky year ago. I don't think that the team
ever really gelled under Frank Vogel. I think that bringing
Mike Budenholz aer in is going to really help Phoenix.
Butenhlzer is one of the best regular season coaches of
(02:10):
all time, and honestly, he plays, you know, a system
that is going to prioritize the three ball, which is
something that the Suns really need to do that they
are at, you know, a mathematical disadvantage every night with
the amount of mid range jumpers that they take between Durant,
Beale and Booker. So just having someone come in there
and tell them, look, you need to start taking more
threes to keep up with opponent's is going to help
quite a bit. But at the same time, they also added,
(02:31):
you know, two rotation players in Monty Morris and Mason Plumley,
two guys that are proven know how to play off
the bench. That's not something that they had last year,
especially at the point guard position. People were really clamoring
for Phoenix too out of point guard. So I just
kind of think that, you know, forty seven wins is
very realistic. I honestly think that the Suns are going
to be a threat to win fifty with budenholes are
at the help. I think that they're a little bit
(02:51):
underrated heading into the season because of what the Tiberwolves
did to them last year. And then I also kind
of felt a little bit similarly about the Cleveland Cavaliers
down at forty seven and a half. I think that
that number was also a little too low. It's a
team that won forty eight games last year despite you know,
Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland all missing like
you know, a quarter of the season at different times.
(03:12):
They were never really healthy. They're going to have those
guys back in the mix this year. Kenny Atkinson coming
in to be their new head coach. I think he's
going to do a good job, just an offensive coach
that I think is really really good. Honestly, I thought
that he did a better job with the nets that
people gave him credit for a lot of off ball.
Newman's going to be expected there. So if that defense
stays in that top ten range, I think that the
(03:32):
offense probably gets to around top ten, top twelve, and
I just would be surprised if Cleveland doesn't win at
least forty eight.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
Yeah, Zach, I know you and I are texting a
little bit the other day. I like both of those
any concern we've heard, and we heard a lot about
the trade talks around around the draft with the Suns,
and then we've kind of heard Darius Garland hanging around
almost all summer about something that happens with him. Where
are you at with both those teams right now? You
think those rosters kind of stay set?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
I think so. I mean, I think that the Durant
stuff was just a lot of smoke. I think that
a lot of teams try to, you know, play vulture
with the Suns, especially with Durant, just try to see
how unhappy he is, you know, put out there that
your team's looking to trade. You see if that upsets
you and make you force the trade. I don't think
it's going to happen. I think you saw, you know,
Matt Eshbia come out and double down saying, you know,
we're all in Kevin Durant. Durant recently did a couple
(04:19):
of interviews and said that he's really happy in Phoenix.
So I think that he has a much better relationship
with you know, Devin Booker and the rest of his
team than people think. And I think he is pretty
happy in Phoenix, So I'd be pretty surprised if he's traded.
I think with Garland, I'm not terribly high on the
fit between him and Mitchell to begin with. So if
they did move him and they got like a pretty
serviceable wing, I don't think that anything would be much worse.
(04:40):
So I wouldn't feel any worse about that over if
they did move Garland.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah, I have a feeling I will be following along
with you, Zach on the over on the Calves. He
I did bet it last year though, and it didn't
get home, So that's kind of in the back of
my mind.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
As well, don't classic the classic better's mentality, As Echo
enjoyed that betting on next, where you follows our senior
editor at vsin dot com, you bring up to one
of the many teams that are viewed to be competitive
in the Western Conference landscape with Phoenix. That's to me,
it was so fascinating when you saw these win totals drop, right, Zach,
It's like Crizzlies forty seven and a half. I'm just
(05:13):
running down the list here where DK has these at
Suns forty six and a half, King's forty six and
a half, Pelicans forty five and a half, like Lakers
forty four and a half, Warriors forty three and a half.
Even the Rockets at forty two and a half have
gotten a lot of buzz after a finishing five hundred
last year. Like, not all these teams are gonna have success.
I mean we didn't even mention the San Antonio Spurs
or even further down on the odds board. Isn't that
(05:33):
kind of the the one angle for betters to at
least parse through and say, you know the way this
is gonna work out, You're gonna have eleven to twelve
pretty competitive teams in the West. Obviously, only ten even
get into the play in tournament, only eight make the
actual postseason, and as a result of that, just some
of these win totals in general, Zach will not be
attainable based on that.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, that's kind of why I'm staying away from win
totals in the fifties. I just think it's going to
be a gauntlet in the West. I should mention it
just because we're talking teams that might not make the playoffs.
I do think that one of my favorite bets how
to get to the season as Warriors to miss the
playoffs at minus one ten. I just I don't really
see what they're doing with this roster. I thought that
letting Clay walk, you know, it made sense. I guess
(06:11):
like if they didn't want to pay him, you know,
twenty five million dollars, but he ended up getting a
pretty reasonable deal in my opinion, so maybe he wouldn't
have taken that. With Golden State, you know, it's a
principal thing. But you know, bringing in Kyle Anderson, Buddy Heels,
and d Anthony Melton, that does not excite me. With
the roster that they currently have, I'm not as high
on Jonathan Kminga as other people are. I do think that,
you know, there's some potential for them to take that
(06:33):
swing on Lori marketing. I mean, I saw that, you know,
DK did not hang a win total on Golden State,
and I do think, you know, there's the same with
with the Jazz, So I think that there's something there
with maybe they are going to finish that trade before
the season. Maybe that's the way that they get in.
But I'm still not even sure that if you move
all your death you move Pajemski, Kaminga, you know, and
all your picks for marketing, I'm just not positive that
(06:54):
there's still a playoff team there.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
And there were three teams that have not been hung
as a result of just what you're talking about some
of that speculation Zach as to what could happen here
in the short term about the Warriors, as Zach mentions
about minus one ten either way to make or miss
the postseason. As far as he's award Marke, it's Kelly's teaser.
We're gonna talk about some of his awards bets. He's
made a couple anything that stood out from those initially
being priced for you.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Not much. Honestly, I jumped on Lemby at forty to one.
I think JBTJ, Kelly and I all text him when
we saw that number. Yeah, feel pretty good about that
now that Paul's there, because I do think that he's
just going to put up stupid numbers. I think that
San Antonio, you know, Florence with thirty five thirty six wins.
But if they do somehow get to forty or so
and Wenby puts up the numbers, we think he's going to.
(07:38):
I think he's gonna be in the conversation. Like you
see these clips coming out of him, you know what
the France practices like, He's just hitting step back threes
over guards like he just looks absolutely ridiculous. And now
I do think they put a good team around him
this year, so I think he's gonna look a lot better.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Thanks for including me on that group text THO, though
I've not done NBA shows with you guys in the past,
so I don't I don't blame you or beseech you.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
You could grab an extended chat.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I'm an extended chat twenty Yeah, I see twenty twenty
a DK is it isn't it?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Is it?
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Weird to you, guys include kellying this too that for
Most Improved Player. Web Yama is also the co favorite here.
He's ten to one after being Rookie of the Year
season ago. Is it's just kind of weird to me.
I don't know how to really think about it.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Well, I think I just hate that market more than
anything imaginable, Like that's part of should not be he
should not be eligible to win Most Improved Player. We
know he's already like just a freak, so why would
you What would he have to do next season to
be the most improved player? It's insane.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
So that's where I made a couple of bets. I'll
get to those later. I think I think it's the
one market you can bet a little earlier, one of
the awards markets you can bet a little earlier. I'm
with you those seconds at bet, I just how many
awards are we going to give the guy at the
end of the day. That's the I think that's where
you kind of have to draw the line, and that's
where I would the kind of the reason why I
wouldn't bet him there. If we're thinking the defensive Player
(08:52):
of the year, maybe more, how many is you possibly.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Going to take that.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
It's a great point. Zach Cohen always good to see him. Vsent,
Senior editor at betting On. Its great to see you
as always. I appreciate it
Right now, we got to our Progressive guest line. First
guest of the day. Always great to talk some ball
with our guy, Zach Cohen, who joins us right now.
Follow him at betting on X as we go to
the Progressive guest line. Good to see you, Zach. We're
joking during the break that you know, Zach is just
sweating like itf Level one twenty five women's events. Well,
we're all watching the Open Championship, but that's neither here
nor there on the on the tennis side, Summer League
(00:23):
you've been I will give you a shout out because
you gave outs over the This was last week. You
gave out Orlando Magic as a like kind of a
long shot Summer League playing at the very least. I
got off to a good start here. They beat Detroit
by like thirty and Orlando was just looking up to
see where they're at today Magic playing against Brooklyn. They
have been favored here throughout this tournament. So you've been
pretty spot on there, Zach. I will give you credit
(00:44):
because I don't think many people are diving into rosters
on Summer League, but at least a good job by
you on that so far.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, I gave out the Magic and Raptors as futures.
I think both started too. And oh but I think
they both missed the semifinals. I believe that, Oh they're
not yesterday was I think. I think so all teams
play five games, but the first three days deserted, who
would be in the semi finals. So you know, they're
just playing these next two games but they don't really matter.
Speaker 1 (01:09):
Well, I take it all back, No, I'm kidding. Yeah, yeah,
I take it off like, yeah, the at least for
the you know, to start out though, I mean, the
betting markets have shown a lot of teams there have
been some kind of wild disparities as far as the
odds go. Well, well, I think most people were kind
of very very casually watching that the Brownie James game
last night. Obviously the big headline. The win totals came
out at least that DK were posted late Sunday. We
(01:30):
are starting to see them populate here in Vegas. Kelly
has made a couple bets that we're going to talk
about in a little bit as far as some as
far as these win totals here for NBA, fascinating that
they come out at this time of year, especially as
it's a dead time in the sports calendar for the
most part, and we have a lot more opportunity to
dive in and I get the breakdowns. What stood out
to you as you started to look at some of
these win totals?
Speaker 2 (01:50):
I thought that the Suns total was a little too low.
I mean, I granted I have a Suns fan, but
you know, they did win forty nine games last year
in a year that people viewed as you know, a
disaster for them, and they have a lot of bad
injury lucky year ago. I don't think that the team
ever really gelled under Frank Vogel. I think that bringing
Mike Budenholz aer in is going to really help Phoenix.
Butenhlzer is one of the best regular season coaches of
(02:10):
all time, and honestly, he plays, you know, a system
that is going to prioritize the three ball, which is
something that the Suns really need to do that they
are at, you know, a mathematical disadvantage every night with
the amount of mid range jumpers that they take between Durant,
Beale and Booker. So just having someone come in there
and tell them, look, you need to start taking more
threes to keep up with opponent's is going to help
quite a bit. But at the same time, they also added,
(02:31):
you know, two rotation players in Monty Morris and Mason Plumley,
two guys that are proven know how to play off
the bench. That's not something that they had last year,
especially at the point guard position. People were really clamoring
for Phoenix too out of point guard. So I just
kind of think that, you know, forty seven wins is
very realistic. I honestly think that the Suns are going
to be a threat to win fifty with budenholes are
at the help. I think that they're a little bit
(02:51):
underrated heading into the season because of what the Tiberwolves
did to them last year. And then I also kind
of felt a little bit similarly about the Cleveland Cavaliers
down at forty seven and a half. I think that
that number was also a little too low. It's a
team that won forty eight games last year despite you know,
Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland all missing like
you know, a quarter of the season at different times.
(03:12):
They were never really healthy. They're going to have those
guys back in the mix this year. Kenny Atkinson coming
in to be their new head coach. I think he's
going to do a good job, just an offensive coach
that I think is really really good. Honestly, I thought
that he did a better job with the nets that
people gave him credit for a lot of off ball.
Newman's going to be expected there. So if that defense
stays in that top ten range, I think that the
(03:32):
offense probably gets to around top ten, top twelve, and
I just would be surprised if Cleveland doesn't win at
least forty eight.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
Yeah, Zach, I know you and I are texting a
little bit the other day. I like both of those
any concern we've heard, and we heard a lot about
the trade talks around around the draft with the Suns,
and then we've kind of heard Darius Garland hanging around
almost all summer about something that happens with him. Where
are you at with both those teams right now? You
think those rosters kind of stay set?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
I think so. I mean, I think that the Durant
stuff was just a lot of smoke. I think that
a lot of teams try to, you know, play vulture
with the Suns, especially with Durant, just try to see
how unhappy he is, you know, put out there that
your team's looking to trade. You see if that upsets
you and make you force the trade. I don't think
it's going to happen. I think you saw, you know,
Matt Eshbia come out and double down saying, you know,
we're all in Kevin Durant. Durant recently did a couple
(04:19):
of interviews and said that he's really happy in Phoenix.
So I think that he has a much better relationship
with you know, Devin Booker and the rest of his
team than people think. And I think he is pretty
happy in Phoenix, So I'd be pretty surprised if he's traded.
I think with Garland, I'm not terribly high on the
fit between him and Mitchell to begin with. So if
they did move him and they got like a pretty
serviceable wing, I don't think that anything would be much worse.
(04:40):
So I wouldn't feel any worse about that over if
they did move Garland.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah, I have a feeling I will be following along
with you, Zach on the over on the Calves. He
I did bet it last year though, and it didn't
get home, So that's kind of in the back of
my mind.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
As well, don't classic the classic better's mentality, As Echo
enjoyed that betting on next, where you follows our senior
editor at vsin dot com, you bring up to one
of the many teams that are viewed to be competitive
in the Western Conference landscape with Phoenix. That's to me,
it was so fascinating when you saw these win totals drop, right, Zach,
It's like Crizzlies forty seven and a half. I'm just
(05:13):
running down the list here where DK has these at
Suns forty six and a half, King's forty six and
a half, Pelicans forty five and a half, like Lakers
forty four and a half, Warriors forty three and a half.
Even the Rockets at forty two and a half have
gotten a lot of buzz after a finishing five hundred
last year. Like, not all these teams are gonna have success.
I mean we didn't even mention the San Antonio Spurs
or even further down on the odds board. Isn't that
(05:33):
kind of the the one angle for betters to at
least parse through and say, you know the way this
is gonna work out, You're gonna have eleven to twelve
pretty competitive teams in the West. Obviously, only ten even
get into the play in tournament, only eight make the
actual postseason, and as a result of that, just some
of these win totals in general, Zach will not be
attainable based on that.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Yeah, that's kind of why I'm staying away from win
totals in the fifties. I just think it's going to
be a gauntlet in the West. I should mention it
just because we're talking teams that might not make the playoffs.
I do think that one of my favorite bets how
to get to the season as Warriors to miss the
playoffs at minus one ten. I just I don't really
see what they're doing with this roster. I thought that
letting Clay walk, you know, it made sense. I guess
(06:11):
like if they didn't want to pay him, you know,
twenty five million dollars, but he ended up getting a
pretty reasonable deal in my opinion, so maybe he wouldn't
have taken that. With Golden State, you know, it's a
principal thing. But you know, bringing in Kyle Anderson, Buddy Heels,
and d Anthony Melton, that does not excite me. With
the roster that they currently have, I'm not as high
on Jonathan Kminga as other people are. I do think that,
you know, there's some potential for them to take that
(06:33):
swing on Lori marketing. I mean, I saw that, you know,
DK did not hang a win total on Golden State,
and I do think, you know, there's the same with
with the Jazz, So I think that there's something there
with maybe they are going to finish that trade before
the season. Maybe that's the way that they get in.
But I'm still not even sure that if you move
all your death you move Pajemski, Kaminga, you know, and
all your picks for marketing, I'm just not positive that
(06:54):
there's still a playoff team there.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
And there were three teams that have not been hung
as a result of just what you're talking about some
of that speculation Zach as to what could happen here
in the short term about the Warriors, as Zach mentions
about minus one ten either way to make or miss
the postseason. As far as he's award Marke, it's Kelly's teaser.
We're gonna talk about some of his awards bets. He's
made a couple anything that stood out from those initially
being priced for you.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Not much. Honestly, I jumped on Lemby at forty to one.
I think JBTJ, Kelly and I all text him when
we saw that number. Yeah, feel pretty good about that
now that Paul's there, because I do think that he's
just going to put up stupid numbers. I think that
San Antonio, you know, Florence with thirty five thirty six wins.
But if they do somehow get to forty or so
and Wenby puts up the numbers, we think he's going to.
(07:38):
I think he's gonna be in the conversation. Like you
see these clips coming out of him, you know what
the France practices like, He's just hitting step back threes
over guards like he just looks absolutely ridiculous. And now
I do think they put a good team around him
this year, so I think he's gonna look a lot better.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Thanks for including me on that group text THO, though
I've not done NBA shows with you guys in the past,
so I don't I don't blame you or beseech you.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
You could grab an extended chat.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I'm an extended chat twenty Yeah, I see twenty twenty
a DK is it isn't it?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Is it?
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Weird to you, guys include kellying this too that for
Most Improved Player. Web Yama is also the co favorite here.
He's ten to one after being Rookie of the Year
season ago. Is it's just kind of weird to me.
I don't know how to really think about it.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Well, I think I just hate that market more than
anything imaginable, Like that's part of should not be he
should not be eligible to win Most Improved Player. We
know he's already like just a freak, so why would
you What would he have to do next season to
be the most improved player? It's insane.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
So that's where I made a couple of bets. I'll
get to those later. I think I think it's the
one market you can bet a little earlier, one of
the awards markets you can bet a little earlier. I'm
with you those seconds at bet, I just how many
awards are we going to give the guy at the
end of the day. That's the I think that's where
you kind of have to draw the line, and that's
where I would the kind of the reason why I
wouldn't bet him there. If we're thinking the defensive Player
(08:52):
of the year, maybe more, how many is you possibly.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Going to take that.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
It's a great point. Zach Cohen always good to see him. Vsent,
Senior editor at betting On. Its great to see you
as always. I appreciate it
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