Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
NASA might have to nuke an asteroid. Yep, folks, Welcome
to the future. That's the headline in Vice the USA today.
Similar headline, asteroid twenty twenty four YR four could hit
the Moon. Scientists propose nuking it before it happens. Hello, Future,
it's me Kevin. This is a dispatch from the Digital Frontier.
The planet is Earth. The year is twenty twenty five.
(00:29):
My name is Kevin Sirreali. I'm the founder of MTF
dot TV's Meet the Future platform. My guest today, head
of the Asteroid Institute. Also an astronaut. He's been to
space multiple times, including a six month mission aboard the
International Space Station ed lou Ed. When you were up
there looking at Earth and when you came back down
to the planet, what's the biggest change thought you had?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
I don't think I changed that. Being in space for
six months he gives a new problem, appreciation for all
the little things in life that you missed. But if
you realize you can actually get by without wow you.
So it's a simple life. It's good. I like it.
One of the things you do realize, though, is the
fact that you know we do need to protect this planet.
And when I say to protect this planet, I mean
(01:14):
literally protect this planet because when you look at the
Moon from up there, you see all the ass the
craters cause my asteroid impacts, and you think about the
fact that the Earth does get hit, you know, like
I said, more often than the Moon, and so we
can prevent this.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
So these headlines, and we learned in our other earlier
episode that there's millions of asteroids in our solar system
and they come in all different shapes and sizes, but
the ones that are half a mile in length and
larger are the ones that could take us out like
the dinosaurs. So how do we protect the planet. And
one of the ideas that's now getting a lot of
(01:47):
attention is, you know, just nuke it. So I guess
walk me through that thinking and then some of the
other ways that if we identify an asteroid that's going
to hit us, or hit the Moon, or just cause
havoc in our way of life, what options do humans
have to get rid of that asteroid?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Okay, So first off, I have to point out that
the news headlines you read are like ridiculous, really Okay,
So yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Just because that's why I started to meet the future ed.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yep, just because someone says it doesn't mean that's seriously
proposing it. Nobody is seriously proposing nuking this particular asteroid,
and we should just put that to bed. However, there
is an asteroid has pointed out that it does have
a chance hitting the moon on twenty thirty two, and
the question was what could you do to prevent it
from hitting the moon as an essay of practice mission,
which I do think is a good idea to prevent
(02:35):
it from hitting the moon because we can actually practice
the procedures of preventing something from putting in the Earth
by practicing on something that if you screw it up,
and it's not that bad, right, it's just the moon.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Don't tell that's in the moon man.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah. Now, this isn't that big of an asteroid. It's
not something that would if it would hit the Earth,
would you know, it would only take out a large city.
So it's it's an energy roughly of about ten megatons
if it hits, which is about ten times the size
of our largest stockpiled nuclear weapons, so about ten of
those in one place set up at one still pretty big.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Yeah, I'm sitting here and I know we're audio only,
but my jaws on the floor and I'm shaking my
head like that. Nuclear bombs. That's a pretty big deal. Ed, Okay,
keep going, Sure, so about.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
A thousand times the bomb dropped up Barroshima. The proper
way to think about this problem is you find these
things years before they hit, like we did here. The
impact is until twenty thirty two. It's December twenty second
and twelve twenty or something like that, universal time on
December twenty second, twenty thirty two. So we know we
can track these things very very well. We have the
mathematics and the physics and astronomy to do that. Now,
(03:41):
the question is what do you do about it? As
it turns out, when you know many years in advance
like this, you only need to change the velocity of
that asser by a very very very very very small amount.
We're talking about apart in a million, so one ten
thousand or so of one percent change in the velocity makes.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
It miss the Earth speed. So you need to slow
it down or you need to speed it up.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Or you can slow it down or speed it up.
You can do you either. And the reason is this,
and I'll put it sort of into sports analogy. Yes,
the Earth's a moving target. Okay, okay, Now the Earth
is moving very fast right now, at this very moment,
we're going about sixty five thousand miles an hour around
the sun.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Wow, that's why I have a headache.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, so we're moving very fast all right now. The
impact potential impact date is seven plus years from now,
right now. Now, picture yourself as a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Yes, and I'm telling her.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Very wide receiver who's running sixty five thousand miles an
hour Okay, And it's a super long vou right because
I'm he's not catching it until seven years from now.
That's how far away this receiver is. Wow, huge giant. Okay.
Now ask yourself a question. How accurately do I need
to throw that thing so that I can put it
in the hands of that wide receiver seven years from now,
(04:54):
he's running sixty five thousand miles an.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Hour like perfect?
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Perfect? Okay. How much of a change in speed, like
how much of an air can I make? And I
miss this thing completely because he's going so fast. If
even if I throw it to the spot I want,
but my timing is off bay a few seconds, I
miss completely. Yeah, right, So all you really are doing
when we were trying to change the loss of even asteroid,
(05:17):
because we're trying to upset the timing a little bit.
We're not really going to change the course very much
at all, almost imperceptible except for the telescopes and many observations.
What I'm just gonna do is upset the timing so
that it actually goes kind of through the same point
that it was going to go through, but a couple
of minutes earlier, a couple minutes late.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
If this is a small asteroid and the football is
the nuclear bomb, right, so.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
The football is the asteroid, the football, the asteroid is
on its way towards hitting the Earth. Yes, now I'm
the defensive lineman trying to touch the quarterback's arm just
a little.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Bit, Okay, okay, so that the throw.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
Is missed time slightly. The super simple way to do
that a thousand times cheaper, more reliable, faster, No, you know,
worries about nuclear weapons handling just easier, better in all respects,
is you run a small spacecraft into the asteroid, which
we can do, and you change the velocity by about
(06:11):
a ten percent. That's it.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
So you crash a space thing into the asteroid.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yeah, and we're talking to small spacecraft, not talking like
you know, huge things of space shal We're talking like
something the size of my desk.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
It's like bumper cars essentially.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
That's it?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Is it? Okay? You want to jam the asteroid? Give
a little love tap like you're on I ninety five.
By the way, if you're driving right now, wake up.
But what do you call that? Is that a satellite?
Is that a robot? Like?
Speaker 2 (06:38):
What is it? A spacecraft? So it's actually been done before.
NASA did it with a mission called Dart. We tested
the technology Dart and I'm very easy to reach asteroid.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Yeah, because this gets to the problem that you guys solve,
which is you have to be able to you you've
said that to me at least, But that the more
time you have to plan for where the asteroid is
and knowing where it is, which is a huge problem
when there's millions of asteroids, then the then the more
time you have to plan to send the dart to
hit the This year is.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
In advance years yes, years of advance.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Wow. Okay, So my other question is I read somewhere
and again, apologies if this is like really stupid, But
this is what's out there and the press is picking
it up. I mean, is that you could like laser
an asteroid away? Is that? Is there any true?
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Yes, you can do these things, but it's like, let's
say I was trying to use your car on the
I ninety five, Like, could I build a space laser
and hit at that point? I want to change the
speed of this car from space? Can I spend hundreds
of billions of dollars make a giant laser and hit it?
This is like the Austin Powers method of changing I mean, yes, possible.
(07:48):
Or I simply hit it with the car that's next
to it, right, yeah, I mean yes. You know this
is like all of those ridiculously over complicated mechanisms in
the James Bond movie that they set up to kill.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
J But this is why I love talking to you, Ed,
is because for the average person like me, chucking a
piece of metal garbage can car sized thing into an
asteroid is not exactly simple, but like you like, it's easy,
just shove it in there.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Yeah, but remember that we fly missions to asteroids, to planets,
to Mars to Jupiter all the time. Right, We've gotten
really good at this. Yeah, and you know we land
a particular lander on Mars and a landing spot that
we you know, like a few hundred yards across. We
know where that thing's going to land, you know, years
from now, when when that thing is going to go right.
We know how to do this, and and running into
(08:41):
it is actually easier than landing on it slowly because
I don't even have to slow down. So the technology
is there.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So a question that I have about whether it's shoving
or jamming a dart. I love the idea of dart,
like you're playing darts with this stuff if you put
it dark.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
By the way, stands with dual lass story redirect test.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
That whoever thought of that name though in that acronym
is they get creative points from Kevin Surreli. But whether
it's that or it's nuking it the question that I have,
and this you're the perfect guest to ask this too,
because you were up in the space station for six
months with the Russian right. Who gets to decide, truthfully,
which country gets to decide who presses the button of
(09:22):
whether it's a nuke, a laser or a thing that
gets shoved into it? Who gets to decide.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
This is a really good question. In fact, this question
has come up with the United Nations and they have
an answer. As we all know, there is no more
ineffective organization than the United Nations.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
But you said it, you said it.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
But there is a United Nations agreement what we do
if there is an asteroid that is found to be
on the way to hitting the Earth. There's an organization
within there. Because they created a dumb acronym, the Space
Mission Planning Working Group SMPWG.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
Yeah that's not as good as the name as dart,
but keep coming.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
The same page because they wanted to make an Acronymy interesting.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Okay, wait see I didn't spell it out fast enough.
That's called same page.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
I got it. So they this is the organization of
countries they quote get a say. Now, it doesn't say
how they decide. It just says that they're all at
they get to sit at the table. And then remember
you know the United Nations agreements. You know they spend
years arguing about who even sits at the table. And
so they've done that part. Who sits at the table,
And the answer to that one is the countries that
(10:27):
have a demonstrating space capability. So it's the United States,
it's Russia, it's China, it's some European countries and so
on to Japan and so on. So these are the
countries that would be at the table. Doesn't say how
you're gonna make the decision, so I would say it's
still an unresolved problem. I will also say that we're
rapidly getting to the point where the number of countries
(10:48):
capable of doing such things is increasing. I don't know
how it's going to work out. I suspect that what
may end up happening is that a couple of the
major countries will say we're just going to do this,
and it will be in there national effort. That's my guess.
We'll have to see.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
I just learned so much stuff in the in the
course of this conversation, and and I still think I'm
laughing to myself that that you think it's easy to
just shove a what do they call it a spacecraft?
Shove a spacecraft, and the.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Term is actually kinetic impactor.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
A kinetic impactor to dart up an asteroid to save
the planet so we don't end up like the Dinas.
You heard it here, Folks from the astronaut himself. He
doesn't think we should be nuking this stuff. I agree.
Let's just let's just hit it with the dart and
thank you so much for all you do to protect
the planet and protect the species.