Episode Transcript
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(01:38):
to him tonight here at the volume heavy Tuesday. Everybody
ovove you guys are having a great week so far.
Just got a quick show for you today. We're just
gonna do a deep dive into the Los Angeles Lakers, who,
after their ten and four start, are just two and
five in their last seven games as they're tumbling down
the Western Conference standings. Lebron James is playing the worst
stretch of basketball that he's played in over two decades.
(01:59):
We're gonna be a deep dive into all of the
issues that are going wrong for the Lakers and some
specific things to keep an eye on moving forward this season.
How much of this is circumstantial and how much of
this is the reality of their roster. You guys know
the joke before we get started to subscribe to the
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a mail bag in the Friday Show later this week.
All right, let's talk some basketball. So before we get
into the Lakers, two things. First of all, if you're
(02:42):
expecting me to come on here and talk about how
I was wrong about the Lakers, that's not going to happen.
All I said before the year is that I thought
they were a good team, but that they were not
a top tier championship contender that they needed a trade
if they wanted to contend for a championship. But I
said that I thought they'd win fifty games or so,
assuming relative good health for Lebron and av So, if
(03:04):
you're expecting me to come on here because they're one
fourth of the way through the season and they have
a forty seven win pace instead of a fifty win
pace and just admit that I was wrong, I'm just
not going to do that. I'll freely admit when I'm
wrong about the Lakers. I'm just not there yet. I
would even agree with some of the Lakers detractors out
there who say that they're not as good as their record.
I agree they're not as good as their record. But
(03:25):
I still feel more or less the same way about
this team as I did before the season. We'll talk
more about why here in a bit. Secondly, if you're
expecting me to come on here and say Lebron is finally.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Washed, just not going to.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Yeah, he's playing the worst extended stretch of basketball since
his rookie year, which is over twenty years ago. Yes,
it's actively hurting the Lakers, and we're going to talk
about why. But I still don't think he's done. And
the funniest thing about it is most of the people
that are out there saying stuff about Lebron finally being
done are the same people who were wrong last year
and the year before, in the year before that, in
(03:59):
the year before that, in the year before that. Those
people are shameless. They're just you don't get to just
say a guy's washed every single year, be wrong for
a half decade, and then finally take a victory lap
when you're right. So when that does happen, keep an
eye out for that sort of thing. But I'm not
here to bury the Lakers. I'm not here to bury Lebron.
I'm here to talk some basketball. If you guys want
to get into some basketball some of the specific reasons
why the Lakers are struggling, you've come to the right place.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Let's go ahead and get into it.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
So, first of all, the numbers, the Lakers started ten
to four, they were fourth in offense, twenty fifth in defense,
twenty fourth in rebounding, twenty ninth in opponent fast break
points scored per game. Since then, they're two and five.
They're still twenty second in defense, they're still twenty seventh
in rebounding. They're still twenty third in opponent fast break
points scored over that span, but they've dropped from fourth
(04:45):
in offense during the ten and four start to twenty
eighth in offense during the two and five stretch. Since
those of you guys who remember my season preview with
the Lakers and just in general have watched me talk
about the Lakers of the last couple of years, my
main point of optimism with this team is that they
are an elite offense, and with exception of this two
to five stretch, since January, they have been a top
(05:08):
five offense. Their top five offense to end the year
last year over the second half of the season, their
top five offense to start this year over the first
fourteen games. The offensive end is where things have fallen apart. Now,
before we get into the offense, I do want to
bring just a slight silver lining here those of you
guys who listened to the postgame presser with Lebron James
yesterday after the Lakers got blown out by the Timberwolves.
(05:30):
He talked about how the Lakers have been working really
hard behind the scenes on their defense, specifically a lot
of film sessions, a lot of discussion changes in scheme,
changes and roles, things along those lines, and it has
had some positive returns. Lebron talked about that. One of
the things he said in the postgame presser is like,
we spent some time working on our defense. We kind
of rectified it a bit. Now we need to work
on our offense.
Speaker 2 (05:50):
And he's right.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
In the first seventeen games for the Lakers this year,
they were twenty seventh in defensive rating, twenty sixth and
defensive rebound percentage, and the Lakers line four games against
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Utah, and Minnesota, they're tenth in
defensive rating and sixth in defensive rebounding and it matches
up with the eye test. I don't think there are
top ten defense. They also played some limited offenses during
(06:13):
that stretch, but overall, I thought the San Antonio and
OKAC games were the best stretch of defense this team
has played all year. And I thought they were pretty
good in the first half against Minnesota, and in general,
they're competing a lot better on the defensive class, which
is such an important part of the scheme that they're playing.
You saw it a lot against Minnesota again last night,
Like when the Lakers are solving their problems by allowing
AD to switch ball screens, that puts AD on the
(06:35):
perimeter guarding ball handlers. When those guys miss shots, or
when they move away and somebody else misses a shot,
suddenly the guy AD was guarding underneath the basket is
pinned against a smaller guard and able to get a
bunch offensive rebounds, which puts a lot of pressure on
the team to crash around to get defensive rebounds. They
have been doing better. So again, there's a tiny little
silver lining in the two to five start, which is
(06:56):
that the Lakers looked like a pretty unseious defense and
defensive rebounding team to start the year. They look much
more like a at least a serious defense and a
serious defensive rebounding team in the last week or so. Dude,
I think they're going to be an elite defense. No,
but again, this is not the pathway for this team.
The pathway for this team is top five offense, right
around fifteenth in defense. That's where they need to get,
and the only way you're gonna get there is through
(07:17):
playing serious defense. And they've been playing some serious defense.
So I want to at least shine a little bit
of a light on that, but the offense has completely
fallen off of a cliff. So let's get into the
reasons why. First of all, the Lakers shifted from playing
more through Ad to playing more through Lebron. Here's some
crazy stats for you. During the ten and four start,
(07:38):
when the Lakers were fourth in offense, AD had a
thirty one point two percent usage rate and Lebron James
had a twenty six point four percent usage rate. During
the two to five stretch, since when they're twenty eighth
in offense, AD's usage rate has dropped to twenty six
point four percent and Lebron's has risen to thirty point
(07:59):
five five percent. So they went from Ad having the
usage of a typical lead superstar and Lebron having the
eight usage of a typical secondary star to swapping those
roles and Lebron's doing more of the offensive lift.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Right.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Here's the problem though, During the stretch where Ad was
kind of the primary superstar, he averaged thirty one points
on sixty five percent through shooting during this stretch, the
seven game stretch where Lebron is more involved, nineteen points
per game, five turnovers per game just forty eight percent
in true shooting in the last six games, just seventeen
(08:32):
points per game forty four percent true shooting. Now, before
we get into the details with Lebron, it is a
little more complicated than that. Part of that shift back
towards fixing the defensive end has caused Anthony Davis to
spend more energy on the defensive end. They've also faced
some teams with really athletic guards, and Austin and Dilo
(08:53):
have missed a couple of games three I think between
the two of them. So if you're facing matchups that
kind of make life harder for Austin and Di Loo
and Austin and Dilo missed time, and Ad is shifting
more of his energy towards the defensive end. Who's the
natural guy who's gonna step in and handle more ball
handling in that situation. Lebron James, and he's been bad,
(09:14):
and so the offense has fallen apart. So let's dig
into how Lebron has been bad. Physically, I don't think
he looks that different than he did last year. I'd
argue he's a little less spry, not as like engaged
in the half court, not as many possessions where it
feels like he really gets ahead of steam, right, but
not so much that he should be this spat. So
let's look at the shooting percentages and Lebron's last six games.
(09:37):
He's got seventeen points per game on forty four percent
through shooting. Where have the misses been. He's three for
thirty on threes, and he even lights out on those
for over a year. And he's just ice cold right now.
The Minnesota game in particular, most of his misses from
three are on the outside of the rim. That's always
a dead giveaway. Like Dalton Connect, for instance, had a
rough shooting night last night. The Dalton Connect misses, they
(09:59):
were like rattling in the rim and popping out. Lebron
was like, it's like wide left and just just carroning
off the side of the rim. He's missing bad right now.
He's in one of the worst shooting sums I've seen
him be in.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
It's not pretty.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
I think he's missed like nineteen consecutive threes, right, And
to be clear, that generally affects other parts of your game.
But we'll get into that in a minute. He's eleven
for twenty three from the mid range, which is actually
pretty good. That's forty eight percent. That's pretty far above
league average. He's fine there right, seven for twenty on
shots in the paint, but outside the restricted area, these
are your short range touch shots. He was forty two
(10:33):
percent on those last year, so down a little bit.
But he makes eight for twenty instead of seven for twenty,
and suddenly he's at forty percent, so not really much
of a factor there. He's twenty two for thirty five
in the restricted area at sixty three percent on six
attempts per game. Now, last year he was at eight
(10:53):
attempts per game in the restricted area seventy three percent,
so ten percent better, and about twenty five about thirty
three percent more volume increase. Right, So he's down a
good amount at the rim. But I actually do think
that has more to do with his jump shot than
it does with his age. When you go through a
shooting slump like Lebron is in, it makes the game
so much harder. Guys don't close out on you as
(11:14):
hard as they usually do, they don't pressure you as much.
That makes it harder for you to get downhill. Not
to mention the mental aspect, like when you're not making shots,
you start to lose confidence. That causes you to try
to force the issue a little bit. I saw a
lot of that last night he gets Minnesota or it
felt like Lebron was trying to force his way into
a rhythm. I would actually argue his jumper being off
(11:35):
is playing a much bigger role in this struggle for
Lebron than his age is. Then there's the issue that
with the turnovers, right, some of that's related to his
shooting too. Just to put it really simply, the less
effective Lebron is as a jump shooter, the hard it
is for him to get to the rim. The harder
it is for Lebron to get to the rim when
he's also in a shooting slump, The less effective overall
(11:55):
he is as a scorer. The less effective Lebron is
overall as a scorer, the less the defense is going
to overplay him, the less the defense is going to
overplay him, The harder it's going to be for him
to find those passing windows, right, those windows get tighter.
Some of it's also general focus. Lebron has been having
two or three, like really head scratching turnovers per game
(12:18):
where he's just clearly not as focused as he needs
to be. And then, as I mentioned earlier, it's the
mental aspect too. As you lose your confidence, you start
to try to force things a little bit. You probably
have heard Lebron talk a lot in his postgame pressers
in the last week about rhythm. It's kind of like
a mythological basketball concept, but it's real. Talk to any
basketball player, anybody who played at a real level, they
will tell you it's real, and like when you have
(12:41):
There's a bunch of different ways that people refer to it,
right Like, I've heard rhythm, I've heard like, I've heard confidence,
I've heard verve, I've heard flow. You know, it's like
your mojo as a basketball player. There's a lot of
different ways to refer to it, but all it is
basically is that whenever you're playing good basket cake ball,
it tends to feed on itself and make you play
(13:03):
even more good basketball. When you play bad basketball, it
has a tendency to feed on itself and you play
worse basketball. I'll give you an example. If you're playing
good basketball, like if Lebron comes out in the game
tomorrow and I think it's in Miami or Atlanta, I
can't remember exactly where it is. But when he goes
out on the road in his next game, if he
comes out and he hits a couple of above the
(13:24):
break threes early in the game, suddenly he's gonna feel
more confident. Right Let's say that he catches on the
wing after that, and he pump fakes and the dude
chases him off the line because he just made too
and he drives, and when he drives, he drops it
off to Anthony Davis and Anthony Davis gets a dunk. Now,
Lebron's starting to feel himself a little bit, starting to
feel good. Let's say he goes out on the other end,
(13:45):
then he like a low man rotation, where maybe if
he's not in as much of a groove, he's less
willing to make that rotation. But when he's feeling good
about himself and he's feeling like I'm having a great
game right now, he might make a much greater effort
on a low man rotation and block like bam Adebayo
on a rim finish or something. And then suddenly he's
bringing the ball to the floor. In transition, he's spraying
(14:07):
it out to a shooter and it's like it just
kind of gains this momentum and it just turns into this,
like it just turns into this runaway train. In a
good way, the exact same thing can happen in a
negative way when things are not going your way like
a lot of times, like when your SHOT's not falling.
Is also when you start to force some bad passes.
(14:28):
Is also when you start to get discouraged and not
sprint back in transition. Is also when you start to
lose that confidence and energy that drives you to make
those extra efforts and extra intentional plays on the defensive
end of the floor. It all kind of feeds into itself,
and Lebron right now is just in a really really
bad place as a basketball player. He's not doing anything
(14:51):
really that well. He's been okay on the defensive end
and rebounding over the course of the last week, like
the rest of the team has been. But I even
saw a lot of possessions last night where it's like, Okay,
you're on on the island with Mike Conlay and he's
just going right around you, like slide those feet.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Man. I mean, I know you're old, but so is he.
You know what?
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I mean like he can be better on that end too.
It's just he's in a really bad place and so
he's gonna have to find his way out of it.
I do think his head is in the right place.
I think it was Dave mcmanhamon last night asked him like, hey,
when you're in a struggle like this, like what do
you do? And Lebron had a lightning quick answer, and
it's an answer that every young basketball player should pay
attention to.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Work. Just work.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
The best way for you to gain footing when you're
in a shooting slump is to shoot the damn basketball
behind the scenes as much as you possibly can and
derive confidence from that process. Go into that next above,
the break three that you take off of that Chicago
action out of the right corner as you're rising up,
(15:49):
thinking in the back of your head, I made this
shot one hundred times this morning. I made it one
hundred more times yesterday. I made five hundred other threes
from other spots of the floor over the last couple
of days. When you feel that confidence, it helps you
think more about the fact that you've been making this
shot NonStop for the last two days instead of the
(16:10):
fact that you missed four of them two days earlier
when you were playing in Minnesota, right, Like you need
to gain confidence from your work. It's like that famous
line from Carmelo Anthony and the commercial, why wouldn't I
want the last shot when I know I've already taken it?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
And it shows him doing.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
The little drill with the where he's shooting the one
dribble pull up at the elbow in a gym by himself,
and that's the truth. That's like, I had a really,
really bad shooting slump my third year in college. I
was a very streaky shooter when I was in college
because I had a lot of issues with my form
that I hadn't worked out yet. And my second year
in conference play, shot the ball super well, shot like
(16:49):
just the shade under fifty percent. I'm pretty good volume
for the entire conference play season in the spring. And
then I went to an NAII school the next season
and my role changed started getting some different shots, and
I shot terribly and I had to stretch in the
non conference play at the beginning of the season where
I missed twenty two straight threes and I never got
to the point where I shot the ball great that
(17:11):
year but I did shoot the ball better in the
second half of the season. I was in like the
mid thirties during conference play, and a big part of
that was I like was obsessively working behind the scenes
because I fucking hated being a terrible shooter. I was like,
I gotta fucking figure this shit out, you know, like
it agonizes you and you've just you have to confront
it with work. It's the only way to work through
(17:32):
this kind of thing. The second thing that I would say,
I also think a great strategy to get out of
slumps is to focus on making winning plays to build confidence.
And this is where Lebron being such a big athlete
is such an advantage. Like there was a play in
the Minnesota game last night where he got inside position
on a rebound against Nikile Alexander Walker, and he got
an offensive rebound put back, and it's like, that's worth
(17:52):
just as many points as him running a well executed
Spain pick and roll where the threat of his shot
forces the guy to chase over the top and he
gets downhill and he dunks the ball right the same points.
If anything, it's more valuable because you turned a miss
in two points on an offensive rebound. You turn bad
offense into good offense. When you make a good play
(18:15):
like that, it feeds you a little bit of confidence.
And so by focusing on the defensive end, grabbing key
defensive rebounds, making key rotations, engagement in terms of your
screening and crashing on the offensive end, to just try
to squeeze out every little bit of winning basketball you
can out of your natural gifts that are not dependent
(18:36):
on making shots. That will build confidence and that will
bring him out of this. For the record, I'm not
saying this stuff is some sort of like tip for Lebron.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
He knows this shit.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
I was like thinking about this last night, like a
lot of people are ready to be done with Lebron
in terms of like him being washed right, And I
just if I know anything about Lebron, I know that
his actual is going to be He's gonna be profoundly
irritated by how poorly he's playing, and he's going to
(19:07):
work obsessively to try to fix it. Does that mean
he's going to get back to the level that he
was at at the tail end of last season. I
don't know. That was a pretty damn high level. That
might have been the last great chance that the Lakers
had was when Lebron and AD were at the level
they were last year. Maybe, but I do think Lebron
is going to get much much better over the course
(19:27):
of this season. I think he's going to find a
way out of this stretch. So like to make a
long story short with the Lebron stuff, though, as it
(19:47):
pertains to what's wrong with the Lakers now, he took
over a larger portion of the offensive load while playing
the worst basketball he's played in over two decades, and
that's gonna nuke just about any offense. But there are
some others with the offense other than d Lo. Every
other Laker offensive player is kind of in a little
slump of their own. Like Delo's gain and steam, they
would have gotten blown out in that first half last
(20:09):
night if not for him. He had fifteen plus points
in four straight games. He's twelve for twenty six from
three in those games. That's forty six percent on six
attempts per game. Delo's getting out of his slump that
he was in to start the year. But here are
some other guys in their stats over the two and
five stretch. AD twenty two points per game, forty nine
percent from the field, twenty three percent from three.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
That's just bad for ad.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
Austin Reeves thirteen points per game, forty one percent from
the field, thirty one percent from three, almost as many
turnovers as assists. Austin's been down for the most part
this year. I don't know if he's dealing with some
stuff physically, but there have been some really big games
for Austin, but he hasn't been playing like the Austin
Reeves that we've grown accustomed to. Right Dalton connect twelve
points per game, thirty three percent from three on seven
attempts per game. During the two and five stretch, teams
(20:50):
are starting to guard him more aggressively. I watched Minnesota
do a lot of top blocking last night, denying face,
guarding off the ball. These are the types of aggressive
coverages that good shooters will get, and he's going to
continue to see them. It's on JJ Reddick to try
to turn that into opportunities to could get him free
anyway and to weaponize that attention to help the rest
of the offense. Getting him out in transition will help
more like transition is where there's chaos and guys can
(21:12):
get open and then two using him as a screener. More.
JJ already knows that stuff. I don't have to teach him.
He's going to be I'm sure he's working on that
stuff with his staff as we speak. Riya Chimura eleven
points per game, thirty two percent from three over the stretch.
Max Christy twenty four percent from three over the stretch.
That's the big one. Like the whole team is in
a shooting slump. They're just thirty percent from three over
the two and five stretch, just twenty ninth in the
(21:32):
NBA over that span. It's also important to mention what
I talked about after the Sun's Lakers game.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
If you guys, remember when.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Your stars aren't playing well, it creates fewer advantages for
your lesser players. When your lesser players are playing with
less of an advantage, it exposes them for having lesser abilities.
That's just the way basketball works, especially against good teams
like a lot of Laker tractors. Detractors have rightfully pointed
(22:00):
out that the Lakers are pretty bad splits against good
and bad teams this year, and they do. They're seven
and one against teams that are below five hundred five
and eight against teams that are five hundred are better.
But the thing is you're going to struggle to beat
good teams in this league if your stars don't play well.
Like that's less to me about like the Lakers roster.
Like I think the Lakers won seventeen games against teams
that were five hundred better last year, tied to Celtics
(22:21):
for the most in the NBA. Or excuse me, they
won seventeen games against teams that were in the top
ten in point differential according to Cleaning the Glass, which
was tied for the Celtics for the top of the league. Okay,
the Lakers were fine against good teams last year, even
with their roster limitations. Not good enough to win the
title or anything.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
But they did well.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
The Lakers can beat good teams at a small rate
above five hundred, but not when Lebron's playing this bad,
and not when Ad is not contributing the way that
he did to start the year. Now, one other thing
I want to point out before we go big picture.
This has been a tough stretch of schedule for the Lakers.
Last night was their fifth game and seven nights. Four
(22:56):
of those five games were on the road, Both of
their back to backs were on the road, which means
they had to get on a plane that night. Four
of the five teams they played were over five hundred
and several guys for their important guys within their rotation
of miss time, de Lo missed a game, Austin missed
two games, Ruey missed a game. They'd play our meltroori
or for four of those games. So what's wrong with
(23:19):
the Lakers? It's a combination of factors. They refocused on defense,
which led to Ad devoting more energy in that direction
instead of offense, where he'd been amazing. The Ad shift
came with some matchup and injury stuff with the guards
that forced Lebron James to take more of an ultra
high usage role, and Lebron has played the worst stretch
(23:42):
of basketball he's played in over two decades. That poor
play from Lebron has made life harder on every other
Laker and they have collectively entered into a shooting slum.
And it all took place during one of the toughest
stretches on the schedule that they will face all year
that cause them to drop a bunch of games. So
how do I feel about this team moving forward? More
(24:05):
or less exactly how I felt before the season. I
think Lebron will play much much better in the long run.
I do think they'll get Ad back involved in the offense.
The rest of the roster will benefit from Lebron and
Ad playing better, which will allow them to play better,
and they'll look like the Lakers they have looked like
for the better part of a year now. In the
big picture, I still think they're way too unathletic on
(24:27):
the perimeter to win four playoff rounds. If they bring
in that athleticism through the trade market, specifically at the
two and three, it will make life easier on Lebron,
Ad and Austin on the defensive end of the four,
so that they can play at their best on the
offensive end of the four, which is their pathway to
becoming a team with two elite units, which is what
they need right now. They're an elite offense that's playing
(24:49):
really poorly on offense. But that's what this roster is.
It's an elite offensive roster in a bad defensive roster.
But they've got some good defensive players, mainly Anthony Davis,
as an anchor to where if they can bring in
a two and a three that are competent two way players.
Suddenly they could be a team that is top ten
in like top five in offense and top fifteen in defense.
(25:09):
That's a pathway for them. But right now they don't
have those players. It's all theoretical, So it's all about,
like again, as I kind of process where I'm at
with the Lakers. Overall, it's still exactly where I was
before the season, which is if they make If they
make the right trade, I think they'll be fun.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
I've talked about this before.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
With the with so many other teams around the league,
but like sometimes as an NBA team in an eighty
two game regular season, the job is to survive and
to extend out your good stretches as long as possible,
and to dig your way out of your bad stretches.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
As fast as possible.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Every NBA team it's gonna have three or four stretches
where they're just not playing very well for various reasons.
Talked about it with the Lakers. Right one of your
stars is playing really poorly, your other stars kind of
playing poorly. Schedules, really tough role players all go into
a shooting slump. You're drop some games, that's gonna happen
to other teams around the league. Just about digging your
(26:04):
way out of it. The Lakers schedule does lighten up
a little bit from here. They have no back to
backs until January, and their next six games are all
against teams that are currently either five hundred or worse. Now,
all of them are capable of beating the Lakers. The
Hawks are capable of beating the Lakers. The Pistons are
capable of beating the Lakers. The Heat are capable of
beating the Lakers. The Pistons, or excuse me, the Kings
(26:25):
are capable of beating the Lakers. So they could just
as easily drop a bunch of these games. But if
they play better basketball, if Lebron gets back to form,
they should be able to get back on track. These
are winnable games for them over the course of the
next couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (26:39):
All right, guys, it's all I have for today.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me
and supporting the show. Got a jam packed slate tonight.
We're gonna hit a bunch of teams and a bunch
of games and some film.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Tomorrow I will see you guys, then the volume What's
so Guys?
Speaker 1 (26:54):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us.
Would take a second and leave a rating and a review.
As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
you could take a minute to do that, I'd really
appreciate it.