All Episodes

November 12, 2024 • 17 mins

Jason Timpf ranks his top five MVP candidates through the first few games of the NBA season. Jason discusses Nikola Jokic's dominant start with the Denver Nuggets, Anthony Davis carrying LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, and Kevin Durant seemingly mastering basketball with the Phoenix Suns before his recent injury. Jason also reacts to Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder to strong starts as the two favorites to reach the NBA Finals.

Timeline:

4:00 - Introduction

7:15 - #5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

10:00 - #4: Jayson Tatum

13:00 - #3: Anthony Davis

15:00 - #2: Kevin Durant

17:15 - #1: Nikola Jokic

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

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(01:48):
to him tonight here at the volume heavy Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
Everybody hopeful.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
If you guys have had a great start to your week.
Got a quick show today? We recorded over an hour
with Carter Rodriguez from the Chasetown Podcast, a deep dive
on the Undefeated twelve and oh Cleveland Cavaliers earlier this morning.
That's going to be air airing tomorrow morning on our
feed and then tonight we're going live after the final
buzzer of MAVs Warriors on YouTube, which I'm very excited about.

(02:14):
But I have a tiny little window of time here
in the mid morning, and I wanted to get a
show out for today, but to do something quick, I
thought it'd be fun.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
To take a quick peek at the MVP ladder.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
Right, So we're, you know, roughly one eighth of the
way through the season, right, twelve thirteen percent of the
way through the season. This obviously is not the time
when you're going to make any sort of final decision
about the MVP race, but it's a nice time to
take a look at the early chunk of the season
and see who's impacting their team the most. So we're
going to talk about my current top five in the
MVP race, and then we'll get out of here for

(02:46):
the day. You guys know the joke before we get started.
To subscribe to the Hoops to Night YouTube channel so
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Speaker 2 (02:59):
On that front.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
We all have new social media feeds on Twitter, Facebook,
and Instagram for the Hoops to Night channel. We're going
to be releasing a lot of like reels and stuff
like that, so make sure you guys follow those feeds
and the last but not at least, keep ropping mail
bag questions in YouTube comments. On Friday, I'm going to
be recording a long mail bag that's going to be
running over the weekend. I'm actually going to be recording
it on Thursday, so make sure you drop as many

(03:20):
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Speaker 2 (04:42):
All right?

Speaker 1 (04:42):
Nice quick show today, starting our MVP ladder with number five.
I was kind of on the fence here before last night.
I probably would have leaned towards Anthony Edwards. But shake
KOs Alexander a big breakout game against the Cleveland against
the Los Angeles Clippers last night, got that pull up
three point shot going. He is now up to twenty

(05:03):
eight six and seven on the season on sixty two
percent true shooting. Again, early in the season, it was
a little bit clunky as he was working on that
three point shot. He's taking over five off the dribble
threes per game so far this season, when he was
at just two point six last year, and again it
was a little bit sloppy, but he hit four of
them against the Clippers last night and that led to
his career high forty five points. Again, like, there's a

(05:26):
lot of upside to perimeter shooting outside the three point
line when you're good at getting yourself open and if
you're not willing to take those pull up threes when
a defender is sitting back to try to contain your
drive or chasing you over the top of a screen.
In a ball screen, you're giving up an opportunity to
get an efficient shot up if you're capable of knocking
that shot down. And again, like when you talk about

(05:46):
real volume scoring, like career high type stuff, consistently getting
into the high thirties into the forties, that's where that
three point shot becomes a real ceiling razor for you.
Right Like, it's not gonna be there every single game.
You're gonna games where reshoot four of them and you
go one for four. But you're also gonna have games
where reshoot seven or eight of them and you make
five or six. And like on those kinds of nights,

(06:08):
that's when you can have truly explosive scoring. But if
you operate entirely from the mid range and around the basket,
just because of how much congestion there is down there
and because of the value of those shots, it's harder
to hit like the really high point totals. And so again,
it was an investment. I thought even in the early
part of the season, the Thunder knew like, especially with
some of the lighter schedule they were playing at the

(06:29):
very beginning of the season, like it just made sense
for him to get the lumps out, be willing to
miss some shots as you try to add that to
his game, and that could be something that ends up
being a big tool for him down the line. He's
also been the best ISO player in the league this year.
He's ran one hundred and eight ISOs at one point
two to two points per possession including passes. That's the
highest among the three players in the league to run

(06:51):
at least one hundred ISOs to this point in the season,
and when you drop into fifty ISOs, we have thirteen
players and he still ranks fourth in efficiency on that lift.
The Oklahoma City Thunder offense has fallen apart every time
he's left the floor. There's sixteen points per one hundred
possessions worse on offense when he is off the floor.
The Thunder off to a nine and two start. Challenge

(07:12):
is going to get more difficult from here. With chet
Holmgren being out starting small ball groups a lot of
small lineups, It's going to be even harder for Shay
over the course of the next few months. But at
this point in the season, I have him at fifth
in our MVP Ladder number four, Jason Tatum. This was
a surprise for me. I did not think of him
as a guy that would kind of crack into the
top five of the MVP voting this year. If you

(07:34):
guys remember before the season, I kind of thought of
this as a spot for Ant. Tatum has been better
than Ant to start this season, my pretty wide margin.
Thirty one points per game, eight rebounds, five assists, sixty
two percent true shooting. He's third in the league in
scoring overall scoring volume at this point. Tweaked his shot
profile a little bit, really doubled down on the analytic
analytically smart approach to scoring volume, so really increased his

(07:58):
three point rate and really has been working hard to
get to the line. Fifty seven percent of his shot
attempts this year have been from three. That was forty
three percent last year. So a fourteen percent increase in
the percentage of his shots that come from three point
line from the three point line. And then the free
throw rate is insane. So like again, free throw rate
is usually factored in at are calculated as the number

(08:20):
of free throw attempts who take per field goal attempt,
and so in ISO situations, Tatum is getting zero point
four to one foul shots per field goal attempt. That's insane.
In post up situations, he's getting zero point five to
six free throw attempts per field goal attempt. He's getting
fouled on twenty two percent of his post ups. That

(08:44):
is completely outrageous. Like that is more than one out
of every five times he catches the ball in the block,
he's going to the foul line. And so the result
of that, by virtue of increasing his three point volume,
by virtue of working a lot harder to get to
the line, and some of the stuff that he's been
working on over the last few years in terms of grifting,
which again, when it comes to the grifting, like I
root for the Lakers, I've got Anthony Davis, who's a grifter.

(09:05):
I've got Austin Reeves who's a grifter. Like I'm I'm
not anti grifting, I'm anti grifting. With the league and
with officials, I want them to solve that problem. As
far as the players go, you're just a competitor and
you're trying to win, and quite frankly, you're an idiot
if you don't take advantage of the rules that are
available to you. Like you know, there's a conversation going
around the league of whether or not they need to

(09:27):
do something to fight three point volume, and there's a
conversation to have about that. I don't think the Celtics
really are the problem because they play pretty basketball, But
there are a lot of teams out there taking a
lot of really stupid threes, and then it's ugly to watch.
But as long as the three point shot is the
way that it is, and as long as it's worth
fifty percent more per make than a two, then you

(09:47):
should be taking advantage of it as long as you
can make them. And he's been shooting the ball so
well off the catch this year. He's over one point
two points per jump shot in off the catch situations
and as a result, he's having the highest scoring volume
and efficiency season of his career. He's also been a
super high efficiency ISO guy just like Shay. He's second

(10:07):
to Shay on that one hundred ISOs list. He's had
one hundred and thirteen points including passes on one hundred
and one possessions. He's one of the most versatile defenders
in the league that can be deployed in so many
different ways. The Celtics are better on both ends when
he's on versus one he's off. Now, it's not as
big of a gap as you see with some of
the other MVP candidates, but that's to be expected. The

(10:28):
Celtics are the most talented roster in the league, but
they have been better with Tatum on the floor on
both sides of the ball. He's having the best season
of his career. Can't say enough about how good Jason
Tatum has been to start the year. Number Three Anthony
Davis Thirty one points per game, ten rebounds, three assists
per game, sixty six percent true shooting in over two
blocks per game. Eighty percent of what makes the Lakers great?

(10:51):
All right, even I should't say Greg because I don't
think the Lakers are great, but eighty percent of what
makes the Lakers a good team is Anthony Davis. The
Lakers are fifth in offense, and he leads them in
scoring by a mile. They've been the fourth most efficient
pick and roll team in the league because of AD's
threat on the role. AD is personally shooting sixty two
percent on touches on the role. In ball screens, he's

(11:15):
getting one point four to one points per roleman touch.
That is completely outrageous. He's generating over a point per
possession in ISO and post up situations. They're doing a
lot of work with him in the middle of the floor,
isolating other centers from other teams. He's shooting sixty percent
on hooks and floaters this year. Again, that's not Jokic territory,
but that's close. He's been unbelievable and none of that

(11:37):
even comes close to the carry job he's doing on
the defensive end of the floor. The Lakers are the
twelfth best half court defense in the league and there
isn't a single player other than Anthony Davis that isn't
having a bad defensive season. He is single handedly anchoring
a respectful, respectable, above average half court defense by himself.

(12:01):
That is the type of carry job that he is doing.
The Lakers are six and three when he plays. He
sat out for a game in Memphis, and the Grizzlies
without Marcus Martin Desmond Bine beat the shit out of
the Lakers. They depend on him in every single way.
It is a carry job. He is constantly cleaning up
mistakes on defense, cleaning up mistakes on the glass, providing

(12:21):
the offensive firepower that they need. It's a carry job.
He deserves a ton of credit here in the early
going of this season, carrying a Lakers roster that has
some pretty significant athleticism weaknesses on the perimeter. Number two
Kevin Durant twenty eight points, seven rebounds, and three assists
here in the early going of the season. Sixty seven

(12:42):
percent true shooting. That's fifty five percent from the field,
forty three percent from three to eighty four percent from
the line of ridiculous shooting splits. He's also getting one
point four blocks per game, which is the most he's
had per game since he was in Golden State. I
think he's having the best defensive season he's had since
twenty seventeen. Guy and the team at being two places
at once, and he is consistently rotating out to the perimeter,

(13:04):
chasing guys off the line, getting back protecting the rim.
He has been deployed on ball in a lot of
situations when there are specific matchups that the Suns have
been having trouble with. He is one of their best
defensive rebounders, especially in contested defensive rebound situations. And none
of that comes close to the fact that he's just
straight up stealing games in clutch situations he's having He's

(13:25):
been the best clutch player in the league in my opinion,
this year. He is thirty five clutch points already here
through just over ten percent of the season. The Suns
are seven to zero in clutch games that KD plays in.
He's shooting twelve for nineteen from the field, and there
are specific plays that he's made where he's straight up
turned losses into wins. They were going to lose to

(13:46):
Philly and he through purely through late game shot making
and defensive execution, beat the Sixers. Then that Clippers game
on Opening Night, straight up would have lost that game
if he did not hit a right shoulder fade away
over a double team that sent the game to overtime
before they out executed them in the ot period, like
he has straight up turned losses into wins. To put

(14:08):
it simply, Kevin Durant has been the primary driving force
behind a Suns team that was holding the number one
seed in the Western Conference before he got hurt. He's
playing some of the best basketball of his career. It's
a comfort thing too, when you watch him in these
late game situations. He just looks like he's so incredibly
secure and who he is as a player in what
he wants to do when he's on the floor. He
has complete command of things. He is, at least on

(14:31):
the mental and skill side of the game, is absolutely peaking,
and there's enough athletic ability there for him to be,
in my opinion, the second best player in the league
in the early going this season, and the number one
Nikola Jokich. Thirty points per game, fourteen rebounds and twelve assists.
That's completely preposterous. Sixty seven percent for shooting, that's completely preposterous.
He's running fifteen post ups per game. No one else

(14:54):
in the league is running more than seven. He's getting
one point on five points per possession including pass out
of post ups. If you took the six players that
have run at least fifty post ups this year, and again,
he's run one hundred and fifty. If you take the
six players to run fifty, only Pascal Siakam has been
more efficient on a per possession basis, and again he's
doing it a third of the time. He's been the

(15:15):
best post up player in the league by a mile.
He's the jump shot has been a complete revelation. He's
getting one point five to three points per jump shot.
That has allowed him to pop in ball screens now
all of a sudden, He's converting role man possessions at
one point three to five points per possession, which is
way up from last year. Spot up situations, he's converting
at one point four to four points per possession, that

(15:38):
is way up since last year. The Nuggets are over
forty points better per one hundred possessions when he's on
the floor versus off. I think it's clear that he's
the best player in the league. I think the gap
between him and the second best player in the league
right now is the largest it's been since Lebron James
was the best player in the league in twenty thirteen.

Speaker 2 (15:59):
He is lapping everybody.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
I don't think I've ever seen a more clear cut
MVP favorite through ten twelve games in my time covering
the league. He has built such a wide gap in
such a short period of time because no one's playing
at the level he's playing. He is basically single handedly
taking an injury ravaged Nuggets roster with a bunch of
guys that are playing below their potential at least in

(16:21):
the core guys. They've got young guys that are stepping up.
But again they're stepping up because Nicole Jokic is so
damn good. He can craft these tiny rolls that they
can thrive in. I can't, I literally can't say enough
he's playing. The ceiling he's at right now is the
highest I've seen since Lebron James. It's unbelievable. It's a
pleasure to watch, and I cannot believe how quickly he

(16:43):
turned around this Nugget season when it looked like it
was headed towards disaster. Out the gates. With the way
some of these guys are playing, it's been unbelievable. I
think he's a clear cut number one right now. All right, guys,
that is all I have for today. As always, as
sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. I will
be back tonight live on YouTube after the final buzzer
of MAVs Warriors. I will see you guys then the volume.

(17:08):
What's up guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.
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Jason Timpf

Jason Timpf

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