December 4, 2024 • 41 mins
Jason Timpf reacts to several NBA Cup games from around the league including Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets' second half comeback against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson's New York Knicks taking down the Orlando Magic, and Luka Doncic's 37-point performance in the Dallas Mavericks' win over Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies.
Timeline:
4:15 - Introduction
6:30 - Warriors-Nuggets
23:15 - Magic-Knicks
39:15 - Grizzlies-Mavericks
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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(01:31):
Slash b ball. All right, wellcoon to hoops tonight. You're
at the volume heavy Wednesday. Everybody, hope all of you
guys are having a great week. On a fun show
for you today, we're hitting three games from the n
(01:52):
season tournaments late last night, the Golden State Warriors versus
the Denver Nuggets, the Orlando Magic versus the New York Knicks,
and the Memphis Grizzlies versus the Dallas Mavericks. Are going
to be breaking down all three of those games from
the perspective of all six teams before we get out
of here for the day. You guys have the job
before we get started. Subscribed to Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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(02:12):
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Make sure you guys follow those pages and then keep
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be recording a new mail bag on Friday this week
(02:34):
last sleep before we get started, I want to talk
to you guys for a second about game time. Now
was a great time of the year to go see
an event. We've got NFL in full swing, NBA in
full swing, NHL in full swing, college football, college basketball concerts,
and comedy shows. I just saw an announcement this morning
that Dead End Company is coming back to the Sphere
in Las Vegas next year in March, April, and May.
I'm super super excited about that. You got to get
(02:56):
out to these events, these concerts, these games. It's just
better than the experience that we get when we're at home.
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(03:16):
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with your money. They also have a new feature called
game Time Picks to make that process more efficient, so
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on an event and just see the best deals that
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(03:39):
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time today? What time is it? Game time? All right,
let's talk some basketball. So Golden State Denver. Golden State
goes on a huge run in the late third quarter,
early fourth quarter that puts them up by eleven. All
(04:01):
of the role players were making plays. Moses Moody was
awesome in this stretch. Hit a bunch of key jump shots.
Gary Payton was scoring on cuts. He had a couple
of buckets on cuts. He had a huge corner three
right in front of his bench there in the left corner.
They forced turnovers, they got out in transition. Kyle Anderson
had this like crazy nifty driving up and underfinish on
(04:22):
the right side of the basket. Buddy Held hit a
big corner three out of the left corner. Brandon Pajemski
hit a big pull up jump shot against Yokitchen a
deep drop coverage. Like everybody was making plays. It was
beautiful basketball. And by the way, for all the guys
that have like had, you know, have wondered why I've
been talking about needing a trade of bringing in a
reliable secondary offensive player. This is really why the Warriors
(04:46):
are pretty fucking good when they score the basketball. When
guys that are not Steph Curry can score the basketball,
there are a lot of self created plays in that sequence.
Moses Moody hit a three coming off of a dribble
handoff out of the right corner where he just rows
up on the move when his man kind of went
underneath the screen and he rows up and knocked it down.
That's more or less self created. Kyle Anderson snaking through
(05:09):
the lane and going up and under and finishing a layup.
That's more or less self created. Brandon Pazemski hitting a
jump shot against the drop coverage. That's self created. Gary
Payton hit a shot coming out of a dribble handoff
in the right corner in the fourth quarter. We hit
like a left handed floater in the lane. That's a
self created shot. When guys on the Warriors are capable
of creating and making shots for themselves, it makes them
(05:30):
look a lot better because they have such a great defense.
It allows him to cover for a night where Steph
Curry doesn't necessarily have the most efficient scoring night right,
but then they're very inconsistent, and when those players suddenly
go cold, it becomes a problem. Like the final sequence
of this game, when the Warriors were down two, Steph
gets denied. Denver successfully denies him the basketball twice, and
(05:53):
so it ends up being a kaminga drive that goes
nowhere and Andrew Wiggins drive that goes nowhere. It would
be a luxury to have consistent self created baskets that
come off of Steph Curry. That's why that concept has
been something that myself and many others have been harping
on all season because it's not always going to be
(06:13):
the way it was at the start of the year.
There are ups and downs, there are stretches where guys
go cold. Sometimes you do play bad basketball for a
couple of weeks and you drop five games in a row,
and you can make those stretches shorter, and you can
extend your good stretches by bringing in more consistent offensive production.
That's why we've been harping on that. Right, but Denver
was down by eleven, was six minutes left again in
(06:34):
large part because of that consistent shot creation from other Warriors,
and then Denver just started to methodically work their way
back into the game through the strength of their superstar.
To Kole Joki, it started with him right in the
middle of the floor against Tray Jackson, Davis just hits
a couple of easy face up jumpers right in his face.
There was a really nice pass that Russell Westbrook through
(06:55):
to Michael Porter Junior in that stretch too, where they
ran a little off ball action. They rate it twice.
The first time they ran it with Russ. Russ through
a rifle pass Moses Spood. He had his back turn,
hit Michael Porter right in the hands, goes up and
dunks it. They tried running it out of the very
next possession of Kyle Anderson kind of snuffed it out
and got a block, but they got a big bucket there.
On the MPG curl off of the Russ pass, there
(07:15):
was a Jokic giving Golf of a pump fake where
he just kind of dribbled into like a shot like
pump fake that the Tray Sackson Davis like jumps off
of his feet, gives up the ball and then just
cuts behind it, gets the ball right back and lays
it up. And remember that's the threat of the jump shot,
which is so important for Jokic. Earlier in the same half,
he had another pick and pop with Jamal Murray on
the left wing, pops above the break pump fake tray
(07:38):
Jackson Davis leaves his feet, just lumbers down the lane
and gets a layup. That's such an important part of
his offense. And again, like last year when his jumper
wasn't on, he got one point zero six points per
spot up one point two eight points per roll or pop.
This year one point three six points per spot up
in one point three six points per roll in pop.
(07:58):
So like significantly more off ball scoring in gravity from
Jokic just by him getting that jump shot back on track.
And again it's not always gonna manifest with him making
jump shots. It's gonna manifest with him getting easier opportunities
around the basket to either score or playmate for his
teammates off of the attention that his jumper can bring.
So gets that give and go that cuts the lead
(08:18):
to five with four minutes left. Then they go to
this just right block post up and they ended up
getting two buckets for Aaron Gordon out of this, but
the first one just cuts right off of it. Yokic
hits am, Aaron Gordon gets a dunk that cuts it
to four. Jamal Murray was getting hunted by Steph Curry
down the stretch of this game. We're gonna talk about
it in a minute. He gets a big block on
Jonathan Kaminga at the rim, runs out to the other end,
(08:39):
draws a blocking foul that cuts it to two. Then
Jokic gets Steph in a transition cross match on the
right side of the floor, and as he dribbles into Steph,
Steph wants to get scrammed out of the switch, so
he turns in like runs to go guard somebody else
and just hopes that another warrior will run over there
and guard Jokic. No warrior goes in guards Jokic. Jokic
just steps into the jumper by himself and ties the game.
(09:00):
Then they go back to that exact same post up
on the right block. The very second Kyle Anderson comes
over to double Jokic just feeds it over the top
to Aaron Gordon. Aaron Gordon gets another bucket. Now it's
one seventeen to one fifteen, and again this is where
I want to kind of switch gears over to the
defensive end of the flour because one of the things
the Nuggets did throughout the game, they were bringing Jokic
(09:21):
up to the level of the screen and all the
Steph Curry actions, and then they were running him in
a deep drop against some of the lesser players, you know,
like if he was defending a screening action with like
Gary Payton coming down the lane, or if he was
defending a screening action against you know, Brandet Pazemski coming
down the lane. But the Warriors were getting a lot
of really good stuff just based on the fact that
Steph was bringing Jokic out to the level. Even though
(09:41):
Steph didn't have a great scoring game, he had a
great playmaking game, and a big part of that was
him bringing Yokic up to the level. So Denver starts
switching everything down the stretch of this game, and so
Steph decides to start going at Jamal Murray. And this
has been a recurring theme for Nuggets fans, like Jamal
Murray's been getting cooked at the end of these games
and it's been a huge problem for them. But he
did a much much better job. Again, like a lot
(10:03):
of times, when we talk about issues with these teams,
it's like, Oh, this team needs this or this guy
can't do that, and it's like a lot of times
the solution is just do better. Like Jamal's getting killed
at the end of these games. I've seen them win
the title where he holds up better in those situations
where he can make defensive plays like that block on
Jonathan Kaming got the rim. Sometimes you just gotta sit
in a damn stance, slide those feet and make a
(10:26):
damn play on the defensive end of the floor when
they're trying to go at you right. Such an important
part of overcoming your weaknesses as a basketball team is
just getting the guys that are the weakness in whatever
that area is and just getting them to do better.
And again, like Steph hit a little turnaround jump shot
on him where he drove along the right lane line
and spun over his right shoulder and hit a little
jump shot, but he got stops. The rest of the possessions,
(10:47):
they went at Steph five times, or excuse me, Steph
won at Jamal Murray five straight times down the stretch
of that game, and they ended up generating one basket
out of it. And then on the final two possessions
they successfully denied Steph Ball entirely, which forced Jonathan came
again Andrew Wiggins to try to make something happen, and
he couldn't make anything happen. So the Warrior offense stalled
out in large part because Steph wasn't getting clean dribble
(11:11):
penetration on Jamal Murray. Steph was settling for some tough
pull up jump shots having to pick up his dribble
in the mid range, and Jamal just did a good
job got the stops that he needed. And that really
was the story of the game for me last night
as I watched that matchup, Like, we're talking about two
teams here that have the same major weakness, which is
beyond their superstar, they don't have reliable shot creation. Now,
(11:35):
obviously Denvers has higher profile players, right, guys that have
better reputations than the secondary shot creators for the Warriors,
but guys like Jamal Murray haven't been playing well this year.
So like the same issue is there for Denver, which
is like, if it's not Jokich, there's not a lot
of like consistent offense that they have on this froster.
(11:55):
But the difference is Jokic is playing at the level
of a top tier superstar, the best player in the league,
and Steph Curry is not. Jokic was able to make
stuff happen for his team anyway with no one else
able to hit shots.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Steph was not. Jokic had thirty eight.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Points, Steph Curry had twenty four on twenty three shots,
and again Steph also had eleven assists. He had a
great playmaking game. Steph did a lot to unlock the offense.
But I don't think even Warriors fans would act like
that was a top tier superstar Steph game. And that's
really the thing. Like Steph has had some really good
games this year against some really good teams. He's outplayed
(12:32):
some stars. He outplayed Shake Gilders Alexander in a game,
he outplayed Jason Tatum in a game. He's outplayed guys,
and we've seen what it looks like. Golden State can
beat the Thunder, Golden State can beat Boston, but it
depends on that version of Steph. Like they didn't beat
Boston or beat Okac with Steph, whereas averages this year
(12:52):
at twenty two point six points per game, they beat
those teams when Steph was able to reach that level.
And that's the thing. It's like, Steph has had really
good games this year, but he's averaging twenty two point
six points per game for the season, and he was
right around that number for the tail end of last season.
The scoring volume has been down for a really long time.
The teams are really loading up on him, and again
(13:12):
in the past, teams are really loading up on him
in twenty twenty one and he averaged, you know, thirty
two points per game because he was playing like the
best player in the world.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
At that point.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Now, I'm gonna say the exact same thing that I
said as it pertains the Lebron Right, Like, I don't
think these guys are over. I don't think I don't
think the run of these guys is over. I think
that they have more good basketball in them. But they
just have to find a way to play better basketball.
And as long as they continue to play like this,
it's gonna be really hard for their teams to overcome
(13:41):
their shortcomings. Right, The Lakers have shortcomings in terms of
their athleticism on the perimeter, which the Warriors don't. But
the Warriors have issues with shot creation off of Steph,
which the Lakers don't. They have tons of guys that
can run off this. Right We're gona talk about that
later when we talk a little bit about Spencer Dinwiddie,
because I find his success Dallas to be pretty fascinating
(14:02):
as it pertains to where he kind of slotted as
a shot creator compared to where he was with the Lakers.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Right, Like, the.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Bottom line is, these teams have glaring flaws. The Warriors
don't have reliable shot creation beyond Steph, and the Lakers
don't have perimeter athleticism, and right now, Lebron James and
Steph Curry are not doing enough to overcome that. And like,
I get that it's tough, and I get for the record,
I still believe these teams are worth investing in. But
at this point, until whatever change is made, the only
(14:28):
thing that can really remedy this is like STEP's got
to get back to the point where he's averaging twenty
eight twenty nine points per game on over sixty percent
through shooting. And until he does that, it's gonna be
really hard for this team to beat the good teams
that are in the Western Conference, and they're dropping some
games right now. And again with Yokich, it'sct it's the
exact opposite story, Like he's overcoming a lot of these
(14:48):
issues because he's playing better basketball than anyone else in
the world is at this point. He's methodically walking teams
down at the end of games, getting whatever the hell
he wants for even like he's cre makeable shots for
players that have their issues. Yeah, I Varon Gordon's got
to shoot spot up threes all night, it's gonna be
an issue. But if he's just catching and dunking off
of cuts, it's gonna work.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
You know.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Like, obviously, in order for the Nuggets to get to
that top tier level, they're gonna need Jamal Murray to
return to form. They're gonna need a lot of things
to kind of change in the way guys have been
playing to start this season. But in terms of floating
the ship over the course of the regular season and
kind of maintaining where they need to be, Jokics right
now is allowing them to make up for that, and
they're playing better basketball right now. Again, Like that's when
(15:31):
it almost always just comes down to, like how well
is your are your stars playing? I don't really even
think it's possible to properly evaluate the supporting cast of
teams like this when their stars aren't playing well because
supporting cast players depend on the advantages created by their stars, right,
And so like it's it's just one of those things
to keep an eye on. Like again, I don't think
(15:52):
it's over. I think both Steph and Lebron will have
moments this year where they get back to form. But
neither of these teams is accomplishing anything unless they get
to April and they're playing at the level they need
to be playing at as top tier superstars in this league.
(16:19):
All right, Moving on to Magic Nicks. The Knicks did
a really nice job of containing the basketball in this game. Again,
that's been one of their biggest issues throughout this entire
this entire season, just not very good at the point
of attack for a roster that should be given the
personnel that they have on board. They did a couple
of specific things and a lot of matchup stuff, right, Like,
(16:39):
Orlando's not a great pull up jump shooting team, so
you can go underneath ball screens, you can give them
space and ISOs and try to absorb contact rather than
needing to pressure the ball. But they just as a
team did a better job they were shrinking the floor
with nail help and stunting. They were in their ISOs
like giving that space and kind of playing in that
middle ground where you feel like you're baiting teams into
tougher pull up jump shots. Their weak side rotations were
(17:01):
really solid. They got a lot of steals with the
wingman covering for the low man. Again, I always talk
about the difference between like what I see when I
see a bad team versus a good team, where like
a lot of the bad teams, it's like you just
run a ball screen. You just kick to the corner
and a guy gets a wide open three. But the
good teams will have that windshield wiper rotation where the
guy who's guarding the weak side wing will drop to
the corner, and a lot of times if you time
that right, you can get steals in those situations. And
(17:23):
the Knicks got a couple of steals like that, and
then Jalen Brunson really put this game away in the
early third quarter. I mean, the Knicks were dominating throughout,
they were up twenty at a half, but he really
put the game away in the early third quarter just
going at Kentavious Caldwell Pope, he kicked him. I did
like a little low gather on a crossover where he
got an and one. He put him in jail on
a ball screen and bumped him off for an easy
mid range jumps out. He had another low gatherer on
(17:45):
Wendell Carter JUNI you're on a little sliced through the lane,
and both McHale bridges and OJ and Andobi hit movement
threes in that run, just just coming off. McHale came
off of a little Chicago action in the corner, knocked
one down, Og hit one in transition when he was
in and all of a sudden they were up by
thirty five and the game was over. And so the
Knicks offense is really coming together kind of the way
(18:06):
I was hoping it would when I saw the trades.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Again.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
As I talked about last year, one of the big
changes in my basketball worldview is that in order to
be a truly great offense that is good enough to
win in the at the highest levels of the NBA,
you have to have variety, and you have to have
you have to have multiple ways to score the basketball
so that when a defensive adjustment comes that targets something
(18:29):
that you like to do on a possession by possession basis,
you can kind of shift gears and find something else
to do, right, I don't think it's a coincidence that
Dallas ran into issues when they were able to just
put Jason Tatum on the centers and shut down the
ball screen attack, and all of a sudden it turned
into like a lot of isolation jump shots, and Kyrie
went cold and Luca wasn't hot enough, and then they
couldn't get the stops that they needed and they ended
up losing that series. Right by adding the same thing
(18:53):
goes with the Knicks, by the way, like when it's
all Jalen Brunson and just a bunch of guys that
are just passing the ball back to him, I feel
like there's a certain limit that that offense can get
to when they run into better defenses and things really
grind to a halt. And so when you have more
guys that can make plays, more guys that can capitalize
on advantage. It's one of the things that I've always
thought about when it comes to the higher levels of
(19:15):
the NBA playoffs, when you face truly elite defenses, they
tend to they tend to be really.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Slow to break down.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
And what I mean by that is like when you
do get over the top of a ball screen and
get downhill a little bit, their point of attack I
usually is still pretty physical and making you feel pretty uncomfortable,
you know, like even when it looks like there's a
little room in the mid range for a pull up,
like they usually have a really big long ball screen
defender that like kind of like can shrink that gap
(19:43):
pretty quickly, and even the lob isn't as open as
you think. And like you see a skip pass and
you're like, oh, that guy's open, but you throw the
skip pass and the dude who's in the low man
position is just insanely fast and he just can close
out really well and that opening is just gone. And
so like when you're playing against the better defense is
it's like you have to create a very slight advantage
(20:04):
at the start of the possession by barely getting the
defense to lean one way, and then you have to
kick to a guy who's got a really good defender
closing out at him, and he's got to turn that
close out into an even bigger advantage. And then that
guy's got to come off of the next close out
and do an even better job, and then maybe you'll
get a moderately contested three or a moderately contested shot
(20:25):
at the rim, or a matchup that you kind of
like that you might be able to get an ISO
or post up shot against. But like when you're playing
against the elite defenses, it's just really hard, and so
having really high level offensive players all over the floor
makes it easier for you to do that incremental breakdown
of a defense. The Knicks have been the number one
offense in the league this year. They have a one
(20:46):
to twenty three offensive rating in their last eleven games.
Last night against Orlando was their ninth game this season
scoring over one hundred and twenty points. And like again,
when you uh like there's some specific dynamic accept play
that make it more complicated, right, Like kat as a
spacing big always causes issues for certain teams, But like
a lot of teams are, you know, putting their center
(21:08):
on Josh Harten causing problems there. So it's like one
of those things where it still comes down to, at
the end of the day, your ability to capitalize and
expand on advantages and then to finish plays at the
end and then just having McHale Bridges on the Florida
By the way, mckel Bridges is playing much better. That
was a beautiful game against Orlando there. He's starting to
hit some of those threes when he's running into the
corner on the mover relocating right. He's starting to make
(21:30):
some of those classic mid range pull up jump shots
that he used to make all the time when he
was driving closeouts in Phoenix. By the way, mckel bridges
his first ten games fifteen points per game, his last
eleven games eighteen points per game. His three point shooting
percentage has gone up from thirty one percent to thirty
five percent over that span. So like getting more juice
out of mckel bridges. Oh, Jannonobi went cold there for
(21:51):
a while, but he got back against Orlando. He's had
stretches where he's been really good. Karl Anthony Towns has
been amazing all season. He's averaging twenty five points per
game on sixty five percent through shooting. That's just outrageous, right,
I mean, Jalen Brunson looks as comfortable as ever. He
gets to pick his spots more than ever, He has
more space to work with than ever. His usage has dropped.
He was in last year he was a thirty three
(22:12):
percent usage guy, which is like closer to Luca than
you'd like to be, right, But in this season he's
down to thirty percent, which is pretty standard for a
superstar in this league when you're in a normal equal
opportunity offense.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
As a result, he's over sixty percent through shooting for
the first time since coming to the Knicks. Right, So,
like all of this has just made life easier on everybody.
And then even like, like all these guys fit really well,
Like Josh Hart obviously has his shooting limitations, but he
brings a lot of downhill force. He had ten assists
against the Magic, and now after watching the game, some
(22:47):
of those were just like swing passes to dudes who
made one on one shots that probably shouldn't have counted
as assists. But he still gets like three or four
assists a game where he's just bringing downhill force with
a transition drive or even just an offensive rebound for
a kickout. It's like he makes plays or creates advantages
for his teammates using his downhill force he's got. He's
(23:08):
like a little bowling ball that's really difficult to stop
when he gets going with the full head of steam,
and so they just have all of this offensive talent.
It's been super resilient too. Like in the five games
that the Knicks have played against top ten defenses according
to Cleaning the Glass, they have a one to seventeen
offensive rating, which ranks fifth in the NBA. So their
offense has continued to function even when they've played the
higher level defenses in the league. During the eight and
(23:31):
two stretch that they are in in their last ten games,
their defense has been a little bit better too. They
have a one to thirteen point eight defensive rating, which
is seventeenth in the league over that span.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
It's a little more complicated.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Than that, right, Like Orlando is a team that they
could go under picks on, that they could play off
of guys and kind of pack the paint. Most of
the limited offenses they've played, they've been able to shut down.
But like Phoenix lit him up a little bit, Denver
lit him up a little bit, Dallas let him up
a little bit, they just happen to outscore Phoenix because
they scored one hundred and thirty eight points, and they
happen to outscore Denver because they scored one hundred and
(24:04):
forty five points. But like, the only reason I'm really
concerned there, and the only reason I'm harping on that
all season is because I think in the big picture,
you've got to think about everything through the lens of Boston.
You won't be able to outscore Boston. I think they'll
be able to outscore basically any other team in the
league if they need to in a series. I feel
like that's an option, which is like, we can just
score crazy well and give ourselves a chance to beat
(24:26):
this team. I feel like they can do that to
get to just about anybody, but Boston is a completely
different story, and you're going to have to find a
way to slow down Boston's offense if you're gonna have
any chance to win that conference. So like really encouraging
stuff on the offensive end of the floor, everything coming
together with the vision that you would have expected when
make with making a deal for a guy like Michal
(24:46):
Bridges with making a deal for a guy like Karl
Anthony Towns. The two man game with Karl Anthony Towns
and Jalen Brunston continues to be devastating all sorts of
encouraging stuff there, but I'm gonna keep harping on in
the defense all season because it's just something that they
need to polish up if they're gonna contend with the
team like Boston. On the Orlando front, I thought this
was really fascinating. They're second in defensive rating on the season,
(25:06):
but this was yet another example of their defense getting
lit up by an elite offense. The Knicks are number
one in offense. They put a one to seventeen offensive
rating on the Magic. Memphis is number five in offense.
They put a one to eighteen offensive rating on the Magic.
The Cavs are second in offense. They put a one
to seventeen offensive rating on the Magic. The Lakers or
a top five offense at the time of their matchup.
(25:26):
They've slipped to ten now, but they're still top ten.
They hung a one to twenty one offensive rating on
the Orlando Magic. In fact, according to Cleaning the Glass,
despite the Magic being second in defense overall, they're just
fourteenth in defense against the ten best offenses in the league,
so it's not a very resilient defense. The top five
(25:47):
most resilient defenses, by the way, for those wondering. This
is just a little side note. Memphis, Houston, OKC, the Clippers,
and Golden State all teams with just an absurd amount
of speed. Now what's causing the problem? When I watched
the Magic, the consistent theme is they get spread out
and lit up from three in those games. So like
when they can play teams and they can really pack
(26:07):
the paint, their size becomes a big problem. And they
do have speed at the guard position, but without Paalo,
they're not as mobile on the front line as they
could be at times, and they can get a little
bit reckless with their gambling. And this team is third
best in the league at forcing turnovers, second best at
blocking shots, but when they leave their feet or when
they lunge for the ball against smart teams, they can
(26:28):
end up in rotation. And when they're in rotation, some
of their bigger, slower guys can be an issue there.
It's again, it's not a huge deal, and I do
think Palo is a major help there because like going
just adding another guy who's six ' ten and pretty
damn fast is going to go a long way to
helping them cover ground in rotation. But it's just something
interesting to keep an eye and eye on in terms
(26:49):
of a trend, which is that the Orlando Magic are
getting stops against everybody except the best offenses in the league,
and in those games, they're getting lit up from three
and getting kind of burned in rotation a lot. Just
something to keep an eye as we progress through this season.
(27:15):
All before we get out of here, let's move on
to Memphis Dallas kind of a wild game. Memphis completely
dominated most of the second half. John Morant was like
annihilating them. He's just getting to wherever he wanted on
the floor. He had twenty six points just in the
second half, and Dallas kind of felt like they were
on their heels most of the game. And by the way,
Memphis has been a top five offense this year, and
it starts with John. No one can really guard this guy.
(27:36):
He's playmaking at an extremely high level. He's just slicing
and dicing teams in the middle of the lane. He
hasn't been shooting very well this year, but he's got
such a repertoire of counter moves and over the top
shots that he can hit in the short to mid range,
like he's over fifty two percent on floaters and hooks
this year. So even though he's shooting like a super
low twenty nine percent on off the dribble jump shots,
(27:58):
he's still getting enough over the top shot creation as
an option for him in the short to mid range,
and his playmaking has been so good there it's just
been a problem for a lot of teams in this league,
as Memphis has been a really good offense. But Dallas
walked him down in that fourth quarter.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
PJ.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Washington I thought it was the star of that run.
He had a couple of huge threes. He beat Jay
huff On a driving a close out out of the
right corner where he made a really athletic move towards
the rim. He also got the key stop on John
Morant a possession where again, like with Jaw, you give
him space because the pull up jumper's not there. But
even if you beat him to the first spot, it's
his counter moves that he has in that mid range
(28:34):
euro steps, spins. He hit Klay Thompson with a disgusting
spin move in that fourth quarter that just left him
like glued to the floor, and like he just has
all these counter moves in that range, so you have
to like absorb contact by beating him to the spot.
Then you have to recover to that secondary move, and
he got a great contest on a John Morant little
mid range shot where he forced him to really fade
and have to shoot it higher than he typically does
(28:54):
and forced a mist. It was a huge stop in
that game. Luka Dancic hit a huge three. John Murray
hit a three that put him up eight. He had
a huge three a step back over Marcus Smart that
pulled them back within five and kept the game close.
Derek Lively had two huge offensive rebounds, and then Spencer
Dinwoodie hit the biggest shots of the game and running
transition three on the right wing that kind of was
a little bit of an iffy shot, but like he
(29:15):
got his legs into it and he shot it up
in the air and he knocked it down and then
a couple of possessions two. I think it was the
very next possession. Actually, he ends up hitting the dagger
on the right wing that puts the Mavericks up five
and they get out of there for the game. Now,
before we move on to some of the big picture stuff,
a lot of talk for coming out of that game
about free throw differential and like oh my god, the
(29:36):
refs just gave Dallas so many free throws in that
fourth quarter, and blah blah, blah blah, And like, you
guys know how I feel about this sort of thing,
Like I am consistent across the board, regardless of team,
regardless of who it is. I think complaining about free
free throw differential is the lamest, the lamest shit in
the world. It's a loser mentality. Even when I see
pros and pro coaches do it, I'm like, ugh, Like
that's just such a bad look because like once again,
(29:58):
when you go on the road, you expect that you're
gonna probably be on the wrong end of a couple
of calls. It's part of your mental toughness going into
that situation. You have to be ready for it, prepared
for it, and be willing to play through it.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Right.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
And then nine times out of ten, when I go
back and watch these games and I see a free
throw differential, the team that's getting more free throws is
almost always the team that is playing a style that
is conducive to it. They're usually playing with more force.
They tend to have like a play style that is
maybe more grifty and just better at getting to the line.
They usually are bigger and more athletic, and smaller players
(30:30):
are trying to compensate for it by hacking and doing
that sort of thing. And like I watched that game, like, yeah,
there were a couple of calls. I didn't like the
offensive rebound with the one that got reviewed where they
ended up reversing it and giving Derek Lively to free throws,
Like yeah, I disagree with that. I think it should
have just been Dallas side out of bounds or based
on out of bounds, like if you're it just as
(30:51):
ridiculous to just reward somebody with free throws for contact
that happens all the time in the end of these games,
and guys are fighting for rebounds, so like, yeah, I
thought that was a bad call.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
There was also a.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Jaren Jackson baseline drive where I thought he got Derek
Leively was out of position and I thought he kind
of came down on his shoulder. I thought it should
have been a foul, right, But the rest of them,
like Marcus Smart trying to fight over the top of
a screen against Luka Doncicz, like forty five feet from
the basket and tripping him, Like that's a stupid foul,
(31:20):
and it's a foul every single time you tripped him.
So he fell. The ref's not gonna just let it
go and you're in the penalty and again that's a
pick forty five feet from the basket. Luca's not gonna
pull up that shot, just go under by. By physically
fighting over the top of that screen, you put the
ref in a position where he could make a call,
and he did. There was another play. It was a
three point game, like with like two minutes left, and
(31:44):
Luca gets a defensive rebound and Marcus Smart just runs
in and hacks him on both arms, like right in
front of the ref. If you watch the replay that,
you can see the ref like blow the whistle and
kind of shake his head a little bit as if like, dude,
you're making me make the call, like what the hell
are you doing?
Speaker 2 (31:59):
And so like.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
But more often than not, when I see games like
that and I go back and look, the team that
ends up in the free throw disparity is just doing
stupid shit. And that's what Memphis was doing. Yeah, there
were a couple of bad calls. You're right, it's part
of the game. If you go on the road, you
expect to get a couple of bad calls. I'll be
rooting for the Lakers tonight in Miami. I expect them
(32:20):
to get a couple of bad calls down the stretch
of that game. That's just how it goes when you
play basketball, especially when you go on the road. It's
always a part of the game. It could happen to
you at home too. It's a variable. You go into
games knowing the refs are gonna make mistakes, just like
we are going to make mistakes. That is part of basketball.
And again, like I'm not trying to harp on Memphis
(32:40):
fans here because I've seen Dallas fans do it. Hell
Lakers fans. The Lakers have the best free throw differential
in the league over the last couple of years, and
I've seen Laker fans say Lebron gets the worst whistle
and oh ad got hacked on that one, like everyone
does it. I personally think it's lame. I think it's
completely I think it's a huge waste of time to
even focus on. I have big picture concerns about officiating
(33:03):
in the NBA, but I think talking about it within
the scale of within the scope of competition is a
big waste of time, and I think it's a loser mentality.
And again, like this has been a consistent theme from Memphis.
They have struggled with execution and decision making at the
end of games they're two and six and clutch situations.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
This year.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
They had a negative clutch net rating a couple of
years ago when Joe was healthy most of the season. Again, like,
this is one of those things where it's like a
lot of times at the end of these games, it'll
swing on a couple of decisions. Marcus Smart rushed three
at the above the break on a ghost screen. That
was a bad shot. Him committing those two bad fouls,
those three mistakes get wiped out, that could be a
(33:41):
very different game, right, Like, it's just more often than not,
it just comes down to your decision making and execution
in those situations, not something out of your control like
the refs or something along those lines. And bottom line
is John Moran, after slicing and dicing them all night,
really couldn't get anything for himself except for that three
point shot that he hit from above the break during
crunch time. So like that was the issue at the
(34:03):
end of that game. Luca was able to consistently generate
some pretty high quality shots, and Memphis was it. They
ended up getting the win and of key offensive rebounds
for Dallas. Things along those lines. I was thinking about
this while I was watching the game last night. I
think Dallas is the third best team in the entire NBA.
I landed here in a different way than I did
(34:23):
last year. Like last year, I had Dallas as third
as well. Going into the playoffs, I had Boston and
Denver and then a end of a tier, and then
I had Dallas as the top of the second tier
of championship teams. This year, I came in with Dallas
at number five. I had Denver and New York above them.
But from what I've seen from all three of those
teams this year, I think Dallas is better than both
(34:44):
of them. They just have so many good players, and
some of last year's guys have gotten better. Luke and
Kyrie or Luke and Kyrie. I'm not going to get
too far into them. Like Luca's numbers are down this
year and everyone's freaking out. I couldn't care less. I
expect Luca to be a better player than and he
was last year. By the time he gets to the postseason,
as long as he says healthy. So I'm just not
worried about Luca. And by the way, in his last
(35:06):
two games, he's averaging thirty seven points, ten rebounds, nine
assists on fifty seven percent from the field in forty
seven percent from three with seven steals. By the way,
as he continues to play passing lanes really well, like Lucas,
seems to be getting back to form, I'm not worried
about him.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
PJ.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
Washington is shooting the ball much better than he did
last year. You remember last year after the finals when
I talked about how much PJ. Washington would probably be
repping above the above the break threes all summer in
the gym. Well, he's shooting forty nine percent on above
the break threes this year. He has good form. I
think he's capable of being a reliable shooter there and
that could be key for the Boston matchup. As we know,
in the Boston matchup with Darre Jones out of the equation,
(35:43):
that's likely going to be a center on PJ Washington
and him needing to hit pick and pop jump shots.
If they were to get back into that matchup. Those
above the break threes are vitally important for them in
that specific matchup. He's also just a really good functional athlete.
Like he got that key stop against Jaw, He gets
contested defense, rebounds, he brings real downhill force driving close outs,
(36:03):
he can beat mismatches in the post. He's just a
really really good player. Dereklively is just awesome. He had
six offensive rebounds last night. Last year, Derek Lively was
basically a one to one assist to turnover guy. This
year he's a two to one assist to turnover guy.
Like I talked about guys getting better, Derek Lively and PJ.
Washington are just better basketball players now than they were
last year. That's an ad of talent to this team.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
By the way, Derek G.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
Lively's over fifty percent on hooks when he needs to
finish over the top of a switch or a quick
offensive rebound put back, something along those lines. He's generated
thirteen points on ten post ups this year. That's low volume,
but that's one point three points per possession. When you
dump the ball to the block to Derek Lively, Him
and PJ. Washington just make for a very athletically imposing frontline.
The defensive rebound really well when the two of them
(36:45):
are on the floor together. Dallas has not been a
good defensive rebounding team this year, but they get seventy
five percent of their defensive rebounds that are available when
PJ and Derek Glively are on the floor together. They
both can switch in ball screens and guard perimeter players.
They run the floor super well. Dallas has a ninety
six percentile transition defense when those two are on the
floor together, and they provide spacing in their own ways,
(37:07):
with PJ. Washington knocking down shots and driving closeouts, and
with Derek Lively as a vertical spacer and a guy
who can make plays in the four on three when
he gets ignored in blitzes and stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
So like PJ.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
Washington and Derek Lively have both gotten better, Daniel Gafford
gives them depth to have a good center on the
floor for forty eight minutes. Spencer Dinwoody has become like
their de facto third option and is closing games for
them at the three. In the last five games, Spencer
dinwood He's averaging seventeen points and six assists on fifty
two percent from the field in fifty two percent from
three not to mention, he gives them a good perimeter
(37:38):
defense option in that lineup. And you know, I actually
find this really fascinating because I wanted the Lakers to
bring Spencer Dinwoody back. I thought he was a good player,
but he did not have a good offensive season the
brief time that he was in LA And a big
part of that was where he was in the pecking order.
Like Austin was getting more touches than Spencer. De loo
is getting more touches in Spencer. Lebron's getting more touches
than Spencer. Hell Ruey's getting more touches than Spencer. Anthony
(37:59):
Davis is getting more touches than Spencer. Spencer was like
the sixth option on that team, as he'd come in as.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
A backup guard. Right.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
So, like as I look at Dallas's situation and the
recent success that Spencer's had, Spencer's a rhythm player. He
needs to have the ball in his hands and he
needs to be he needs to feel like he can
take a shot without getting in trouble. He's the kind
of guy, he's a little He's got a little bit
of that audaciousness in him where he's like he will
take that movement transition three in a clutch situation, but
he's also got the confidence in the skill to knock
(38:27):
it down too.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
He just has to be in rhythm.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
And again he'll have stretches when he goes cold and
he has his issues, but I like him as an
option there. It gives them an option, and that's really
the key. It's about versatility. We haven't even talked about
the depth of the roster, guys like Nauji Marshall, Jaden Hardy,
Klay Thompson. Lay Thompson hasn't even played really well this year, right,
But like they have versatility. When you take it the
look at their core four, so Kyrie, Luca, Derek Lively,
(38:51):
and PJ. Washington, we can assume that those five are
more or less or those four are more or less
going to be the closing four for any matchup.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
Right.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
But because of certain players are playing better, they have
a lot of different options. They can go like, oh,
you're playing a big team like the Denver Nuggets and
you need more size, well bringing Maxi Kleba. Just go Luka,
Kyrie and then go PJ. Maxi Derek Lively. Now, all
of a sudden, you've got a lot of size. You
could put a big on Jokic while having a big
in help on the back line. Right, you put Kleeba
on the Jokich and put Lively in help. Right, you
(39:21):
can bring in extra size for that matchup. Oh, we're
guarding Boston and we just need another guy who can
guard on the perimeter really well. Well, you can go
with Naji Marshall at the three or Spencer Dinwoodie with
as well as he's playing. Spencer's a good defender and
he's not a great defender, but he's a good defender
and he can really do the job. He's got long arms,
good size, good strength. It can move pretty well. Right,
Let's say you're playing like a team like in Orlando
(39:44):
or another team that has a lot of size that
likes to match upon a team like the Lakers, for instance,
like Klay Thompson is one of the best options in
the league for like defending players in the post and
shooting the three, and so you could put Clay at
the three for matchups like that. They have a lot
of versatility for different types of matchups in the conference,
and it didn't feel like that last year because they
(40:04):
didn't have, you know, guys like Spencer, didn't Winn Narget,
Nauji Marshall, they didn't have guys like Klay Thompson to
have for those types of looks. Right, they're deep enough
to stay high in the standings all season. We just
saw them whether the loss of Luca for a little while,
and I think they match up better than with Boston
than they did last year. Do I think they'd beat Boston.
I wouldn't pick them, but it's an easier path to see,
(40:26):
Like PJ Washington making above the break threes would really
help in that matchup. I think Luca will be in
better shape and defend better in that series after he
got embarrassed last year. Spencer at the three gives them
another mobile perimeter player to have as an option in
those situations. Kyrie was really cold in that series last year.
It's easy to see a pathway where he would be
better this year. Right, So, like they're a long shot
(40:48):
still because it feels like there's a gap between them
in Boston, but I feel like they've closed that gap
some amount, and so all it takes is certain variables
to go their way for them to be able to
potentially get it done in like a puncher's chance type
of sense, and if you believe in that again, all ads.
All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
The Dallas Mavericks are plus five point fifty to win
the conference and plus eleven hundred to win the title,
So some real odd odds opportunity there if you're looking
to make a bet on Dallas. All right, guys, That's
all I have for today is always a sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting the show. We got another packed
slate tonight and we'll have more game breakdowns than maybe
(41:25):
even some film tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (41:26):
I will see you guys then.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
What's up guys?
Speaker 1 (41:31):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it.
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Slash b ball. All right, wellcoon to hoops tonight. You're
at the volume heavy Wednesday. Everybody, hope all of you
guys are having a great week. On a fun show
for you today, we're hitting three games from the n
(01:52):
season tournaments late last night, the Golden State Warriors versus
the Denver Nuggets, the Orlando Magic versus the New York Knicks,
and the Memphis Grizzlies versus the Dallas Mavericks. Are going
to be breaking down all three of those games from
the perspective of all six teams before we get out
of here for the day. You guys have the job
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last sleep before we get started, I want to talk
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in Las Vegas next year in March, April, and May.
I'm super super excited about that. You got to get
(02:56):
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time today? What time is it? Game time? All right,
let's talk some basketball. So Golden State Denver. Golden State
goes on a huge run in the late third quarter,
early fourth quarter that puts them up by eleven. All
(04:01):
of the role players were making plays. Moses Moody was
awesome in this stretch. Hit a bunch of key jump shots.
Gary Payton was scoring on cuts. He had a couple
of buckets on cuts. He had a huge corner three
right in front of his bench there in the left corner.
They forced turnovers, they got out in transition. Kyle Anderson
had this like crazy nifty driving up and underfinish on
(04:22):
the right side of the basket. Buddy Held hit a
big corner three out of the left corner. Brandon Pajemski
hit a big pull up jump shot against Yokitchen a
deep drop coverage. Like everybody was making plays. It was
beautiful basketball. And by the way, for all the guys
that have like had, you know, have wondered why I've
been talking about needing a trade of bringing in a
reliable secondary offensive player. This is really why the Warriors
(04:46):
are pretty fucking good when they score the basketball. When
guys that are not Steph Curry can score the basketball,
there are a lot of self created plays in that sequence.
Moses Moody hit a three coming off of a dribble
handoff out of the right corner where he just rows
up on the move when his man kind of went
underneath the screen and he rows up and knocked it down.
That's more or less self created. Kyle Anderson snaking through
(05:09):
the lane and going up and under and finishing a layup.
That's more or less self created. Brandon Pazemski hitting a
jump shot against the drop coverage. That's self created. Gary
Payton hit a shot coming out of a dribble handoff
in the right corner in the fourth quarter. We hit
like a left handed floater in the lane. That's a
self created shot. When guys on the Warriors are capable
of creating and making shots for themselves, it makes them
(05:30):
look a lot better because they have such a great defense.
It allows him to cover for a night where Steph
Curry doesn't necessarily have the most efficient scoring night right,
but then they're very inconsistent, and when those players suddenly
go cold, it becomes a problem. Like the final sequence
of this game, when the Warriors were down two, Steph
gets denied. Denver successfully denies him the basketball twice, and
(05:53):
so it ends up being a kaminga drive that goes
nowhere and Andrew Wiggins drive that goes nowhere. It would
be a luxury to have consistent self created baskets that
come off of Steph Curry. That's why that concept has
been something that myself and many others have been harping
on all season because it's not always going to be
(06:13):
the way it was at the start of the year.
There are ups and downs, there are stretches where guys
go cold. Sometimes you do play bad basketball for a
couple of weeks and you drop five games in a row,
and you can make those stretches shorter, and you can
extend your good stretches by bringing in more consistent offensive production.
That's why we've been harping on that. Right, but Denver
was down by eleven, was six minutes left again in
(06:34):
large part because of that consistent shot creation from other Warriors,
and then Denver just started to methodically work their way
back into the game through the strength of their superstar.
To Kole Joki, it started with him right in the
middle of the floor against Tray Jackson, Davis just hits
a couple of easy face up jumpers right in his face.
There was a really nice pass that Russell Westbrook through
(06:55):
to Michael Porter Junior in that stretch too, where they
ran a little off ball action. They rate it twice.
The first time they ran it with Russ. Russ through
a rifle pass Moses Spood. He had his back turn,
hit Michael Porter right in the hands, goes up and
dunks it. They tried running it out of the very
next possession of Kyle Anderson kind of snuffed it out
and got a block, but they got a big bucket there.
On the MPG curl off of the Russ pass, there
(07:15):
was a Jokic giving Golf of a pump fake where
he just kind of dribbled into like a shot like
pump fake that the Tray Sackson Davis like jumps off
of his feet, gives up the ball and then just
cuts behind it, gets the ball right back and lays
it up. And remember that's the threat of the jump shot,
which is so important for Jokic. Earlier in the same half,
he had another pick and pop with Jamal Murray on
the left wing, pops above the break pump fake tray
(07:38):
Jackson Davis leaves his feet, just lumbers down the lane
and gets a layup. That's such an important part of
his offense. And again, like last year when his jumper
wasn't on, he got one point zero six points per
spot up one point two eight points per roll or pop.
This year one point three six points per spot up
in one point three six points per roll in pop.
(07:58):
So like significantly more off ball scoring in gravity from
Jokic just by him getting that jump shot back on track.
And again it's not always gonna manifest with him making
jump shots. It's gonna manifest with him getting easier opportunities
around the basket to either score or playmate for his
teammates off of the attention that his jumper can bring.
So gets that give and go that cuts the lead
(08:18):
to five with four minutes left. Then they go to
this just right block post up and they ended up
getting two buckets for Aaron Gordon out of this, but
the first one just cuts right off of it. Yokic
hits am, Aaron Gordon gets a dunk that cuts it
to four. Jamal Murray was getting hunted by Steph Curry
down the stretch of this game. We're gonna talk about
it in a minute. He gets a big block on
Jonathan Kaminga at the rim, runs out to the other end,
(08:39):
draws a blocking foul that cuts it to two. Then
Jokic gets Steph in a transition cross match on the
right side of the floor, and as he dribbles into Steph,
Steph wants to get scrammed out of the switch, so
he turns in like runs to go guard somebody else
and just hopes that another warrior will run over there
and guard Jokic. No warrior goes in guards Jokic. Jokic
just steps into the jumper by himself and ties the game.
(09:00):
Then they go back to that exact same post up
on the right block. The very second Kyle Anderson comes
over to double Jokic just feeds it over the top
to Aaron Gordon. Aaron Gordon gets another bucket. Now it's
one seventeen to one fifteen, and again this is where
I want to kind of switch gears over to the
defensive end of the flour because one of the things
the Nuggets did throughout the game, they were bringing Jokic
(09:21):
up to the level of the screen and all the
Steph Curry actions, and then they were running him in
a deep drop against some of the lesser players, you know,
like if he was defending a screening action with like
Gary Payton coming down the lane, or if he was
defending a screening action against you know, Brandet Pazemski coming
down the lane. But the Warriors were getting a lot
of really good stuff just based on the fact that
Steph was bringing Jokic out to the level. Even though
(09:41):
Steph didn't have a great scoring game, he had a
great playmaking game, and a big part of that was
him bringing Yokic up to the level. So Denver starts
switching everything down the stretch of this game, and so
Steph decides to start going at Jamal Murray. And this
has been a recurring theme for Nuggets fans, like Jamal
Murray's been getting cooked at the end of these games
and it's been a huge problem for them. But he
did a much much better job. Again, like a lot
(10:03):
of times, when we talk about issues with these teams,
it's like, Oh, this team needs this or this guy
can't do that, and it's like a lot of times
the solution is just do better. Like Jamal's getting killed
at the end of these games. I've seen them win
the title where he holds up better in those situations
where he can make defensive plays like that block on
Jonathan Kaming got the rim. Sometimes you just gotta sit
in a damn stance, slide those feet and make a
(10:26):
damn play on the defensive end of the floor when
they're trying to go at you right. Such an important
part of overcoming your weaknesses as a basketball team is
just getting the guys that are the weakness in whatever
that area is and just getting them to do better.
And again, like Steph hit a little turnaround jump shot
on him where he drove along the right lane line
and spun over his right shoulder and hit a little
jump shot, but he got stops. The rest of the possessions,
(10:47):
they went at Steph five times, or excuse me, Steph
won at Jamal Murray five straight times down the stretch
of that game, and they ended up generating one basket
out of it. And then on the final two possessions
they successfully denied Steph Ball entirely, which forced Jonathan came
again Andrew Wiggins to try to make something happen, and
he couldn't make anything happen. So the Warrior offense stalled
out in large part because Steph wasn't getting clean dribble
(11:11):
penetration on Jamal Murray. Steph was settling for some tough
pull up jump shots having to pick up his dribble
in the mid range, and Jamal just did a good
job got the stops that he needed. And that really
was the story of the game for me last night
as I watched that matchup, Like, we're talking about two
teams here that have the same major weakness, which is
beyond their superstar, they don't have reliable shot creation. Now,
(11:35):
obviously Denvers has higher profile players, right, guys that have
better reputations than the secondary shot creators for the Warriors,
but guys like Jamal Murray haven't been playing well this year.
So like the same issue is there for Denver, which
is like, if it's not Jokich, there's not a lot
of like consistent offense that they have on this froster.
(11:55):
But the difference is Jokic is playing at the level
of a top tier superstar, the best player in the league,
and Steph Curry is not. Jokic was able to make
stuff happen for his team anyway with no one else
able to hit shots.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Steph was not. Jokic had thirty eight.
Speaker 1 (12:11):
Points, Steph Curry had twenty four on twenty three shots,
and again Steph also had eleven assists. He had a
great playmaking game. Steph did a lot to unlock the offense.
But I don't think even Warriors fans would act like
that was a top tier superstar Steph game. And that's
really the thing. Like Steph has had some really good
games this year against some really good teams. He's outplayed
(12:32):
some stars. He outplayed Shake Gilders Alexander in a game,
he outplayed Jason Tatum in a game. He's outplayed guys,
and we've seen what it looks like. Golden State can
beat the Thunder, Golden State can beat Boston, but it
depends on that version of Steph. Like they didn't beat
Boston or beat Okac with Steph, whereas averages this year
(12:52):
at twenty two point six points per game, they beat
those teams when Steph was able to reach that level.
And that's the thing. It's like, Steph has had really
good games this year, but he's averaging twenty two point
six points per game for the season, and he was
right around that number for the tail end of last season.
The scoring volume has been down for a really long time.
The teams are really loading up on him, and again
(13:12):
in the past, teams are really loading up on him
in twenty twenty one and he averaged, you know, thirty
two points per game because he was playing like the
best player in the world.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
At that point.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Now, I'm gonna say the exact same thing that I
said as it pertains the Lebron Right, Like, I don't
think these guys are over. I don't think I don't
think the run of these guys is over. I think
that they have more good basketball in them. But they
just have to find a way to play better basketball.
And as long as they continue to play like this,
it's gonna be really hard for their teams to overcome
(13:41):
their shortcomings. Right, The Lakers have shortcomings in terms of
their athleticism on the perimeter, which the Warriors don't. But
the Warriors have issues with shot creation off of Steph,
which the Lakers don't. They have tons of guys that
can run off this. Right We're gona talk about that
later when we talk a little bit about Spencer Dinwiddie,
because I find his success Dallas to be pretty fascinating
(14:02):
as it pertains to where he kind of slotted as
a shot creator compared to where he was with the Lakers.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
Right, Like, the.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
Bottom line is, these teams have glaring flaws. The Warriors
don't have reliable shot creation beyond Steph, and the Lakers
don't have perimeter athleticism, and right now, Lebron James and
Steph Curry are not doing enough to overcome that. And like,
I get that it's tough, and I get for the record,
I still believe these teams are worth investing in. But
at this point, until whatever change is made, the only
(14:28):
thing that can really remedy this is like STEP's got
to get back to the point where he's averaging twenty
eight twenty nine points per game on over sixty percent
through shooting. And until he does that, it's gonna be
really hard for this team to beat the good teams
that are in the Western Conference, and they're dropping some
games right now. And again with Yokich, it'sct it's the
exact opposite story, Like he's overcoming a lot of these
(14:48):
issues because he's playing better basketball than anyone else in
the world is at this point. He's methodically walking teams
down at the end of games, getting whatever the hell
he wants for even like he's cre makeable shots for
players that have their issues. Yeah, I Varon Gordon's got
to shoot spot up threes all night, it's gonna be
an issue. But if he's just catching and dunking off
of cuts, it's gonna work.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
You know.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Like, obviously, in order for the Nuggets to get to
that top tier level, they're gonna need Jamal Murray to
return to form. They're gonna need a lot of things
to kind of change in the way guys have been
playing to start this season. But in terms of floating
the ship over the course of the regular season and
kind of maintaining where they need to be, Jokics right
now is allowing them to make up for that, and
they're playing better basketball right now. Again, Like that's when
(15:31):
it almost always just comes down to, like how well
is your are your stars playing? I don't really even
think it's possible to properly evaluate the supporting cast of
teams like this when their stars aren't playing well because
supporting cast players depend on the advantages created by their stars, right,
And so like it's it's just one of those things
to keep an eye on. Like again, I don't think
(15:52):
it's over. I think both Steph and Lebron will have
moments this year where they get back to form. But
neither of these teams is accomplishing anything unless they get
to April and they're playing at the level they need
to be playing at as top tier superstars in this league.
(16:19):
All right, Moving on to Magic Nicks. The Knicks did
a really nice job of containing the basketball in this game. Again,
that's been one of their biggest issues throughout this entire
this entire season, just not very good at the point
of attack for a roster that should be given the
personnel that they have on board. They did a couple
of specific things and a lot of matchup stuff, right, Like,
(16:39):
Orlando's not a great pull up jump shooting team, so
you can go underneath ball screens, you can give them
space and ISOs and try to absorb contact rather than
needing to pressure the ball. But they just as a
team did a better job they were shrinking the floor
with nail help and stunting. They were in their ISOs
like giving that space and kind of playing in that
middle ground where you feel like you're baiting teams into
tougher pull up jump shots. Their weak side rotations were
(17:01):
really solid. They got a lot of steals with the
wingman covering for the low man. Again, I always talk
about the difference between like what I see when I
see a bad team versus a good team, where like
a lot of the bad teams, it's like you just
run a ball screen. You just kick to the corner
and a guy gets a wide open three. But the
good teams will have that windshield wiper rotation where the
guy who's guarding the weak side wing will drop to
the corner, and a lot of times if you time
that right, you can get steals in those situations. And
(17:23):
the Knicks got a couple of steals like that, and
then Jalen Brunson really put this game away in the
early third quarter. I mean, the Knicks were dominating throughout,
they were up twenty at a half, but he really
put the game away in the early third quarter just
going at Kentavious Caldwell Pope, he kicked him. I did
like a little low gather on a crossover where he
got an and one. He put him in jail on
a ball screen and bumped him off for an easy
mid range jumps out. He had another low gatherer on
(17:45):
Wendell Carter JUNI you're on a little sliced through the lane,
and both McHale bridges and OJ and Andobi hit movement
threes in that run, just just coming off. McHale came
off of a little Chicago action in the corner, knocked
one down, Og hit one in transition when he was
in and all of a sudden they were up by
thirty five and the game was over. And so the
Knicks offense is really coming together kind of the way
(18:06):
I was hoping it would when I saw the trades.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Again.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
As I talked about last year, one of the big
changes in my basketball worldview is that in order to
be a truly great offense that is good enough to
win in the at the highest levels of the NBA,
you have to have variety, and you have to have
you have to have multiple ways to score the basketball
so that when a defensive adjustment comes that targets something
(18:29):
that you like to do on a possession by possession basis,
you can kind of shift gears and find something else
to do, right, I don't think it's a coincidence that
Dallas ran into issues when they were able to just
put Jason Tatum on the centers and shut down the
ball screen attack, and all of a sudden it turned
into like a lot of isolation jump shots, and Kyrie
went cold and Luca wasn't hot enough, and then they
couldn't get the stops that they needed and they ended
up losing that series. Right by adding the same thing
(18:53):
goes with the Knicks, by the way, like when it's
all Jalen Brunson and just a bunch of guys that
are just passing the ball back to him, I feel
like there's a certain limit that that offense can get
to when they run into better defenses and things really
grind to a halt. And so when you have more
guys that can make plays, more guys that can capitalize
on advantage. It's one of the things that I've always
thought about when it comes to the higher levels of
(19:15):
the NBA playoffs, when you face truly elite defenses, they
tend to they tend to be really.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
Slow to break down.
Speaker 1 (19:22):
And what I mean by that is like when you
do get over the top of a ball screen and
get downhill a little bit, their point of attack I
usually is still pretty physical and making you feel pretty uncomfortable,
you know, like even when it looks like there's a
little room in the mid range for a pull up,
like they usually have a really big long ball screen
defender that like kind of like can shrink that gap
(19:43):
pretty quickly, and even the lob isn't as open as
you think. And like you see a skip pass and
you're like, oh, that guy's open, but you throw the
skip pass and the dude who's in the low man
position is just insanely fast and he just can close
out really well and that opening is just gone. And
so like when you're playing against the better defense is
it's like you have to create a very slight advantage
(20:04):
at the start of the possession by barely getting the
defense to lean one way, and then you have to
kick to a guy who's got a really good defender
closing out at him, and he's got to turn that
close out into an even bigger advantage. And then that
guy's got to come off of the next close out
and do an even better job, and then maybe you'll
get a moderately contested three or a moderately contested shot
(20:25):
at the rim, or a matchup that you kind of
like that you might be able to get an ISO
or post up shot against. But like when you're playing
against the elite defenses, it's just really hard, and so
having really high level offensive players all over the floor
makes it easier for you to do that incremental breakdown
of a defense. The Knicks have been the number one
offense in the league this year. They have a one
(20:46):
to twenty three offensive rating in their last eleven games.
Last night against Orlando was their ninth game this season
scoring over one hundred and twenty points. And like again,
when you uh like there's some specific dynamic accept play
that make it more complicated, right, Like kat as a
spacing big always causes issues for certain teams, But like
a lot of teams are, you know, putting their center
(21:08):
on Josh Harten causing problems there. So it's like one
of those things where it still comes down to, at
the end of the day, your ability to capitalize and
expand on advantages and then to finish plays at the
end and then just having McHale Bridges on the Florida
By the way, mckel Bridges is playing much better. That
was a beautiful game against Orlando there. He's starting to
hit some of those threes when he's running into the
corner on the mover relocating right. He's starting to make
(21:30):
some of those classic mid range pull up jump shots
that he used to make all the time when he
was driving closeouts in Phoenix. By the way, mckel bridges
his first ten games fifteen points per game, his last
eleven games eighteen points per game. His three point shooting
percentage has gone up from thirty one percent to thirty
five percent over that span. So like getting more juice
out of mckel bridges. Oh, Jannonobi went cold there for
(21:51):
a while, but he got back against Orlando. He's had
stretches where he's been really good. Karl Anthony Towns has
been amazing all season. He's averaging twenty five points per
game on sixty five percent through shooting. That's just outrageous, right,
I mean, Jalen Brunson looks as comfortable as ever. He
gets to pick his spots more than ever, He has
more space to work with than ever. His usage has dropped.
He was in last year he was a thirty three
(22:12):
percent usage guy, which is like closer to Luca than
you'd like to be, right, But in this season he's
down to thirty percent, which is pretty standard for a
superstar in this league when you're in a normal equal
opportunity offense.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
As a result, he's over sixty percent through shooting for
the first time since coming to the Knicks. Right, So,
like all of this has just made life easier on everybody.
And then even like, like all these guys fit really well,
Like Josh Hart obviously has his shooting limitations, but he
brings a lot of downhill force. He had ten assists
against the Magic, and now after watching the game, some
(22:47):
of those were just like swing passes to dudes who
made one on one shots that probably shouldn't have counted
as assists. But he still gets like three or four
assists a game where he's just bringing downhill force with
a transition drive or even just an offensive rebound for
a kickout. It's like he makes plays or creates advantages
for his teammates using his downhill force he's got. He's
(23:08):
like a little bowling ball that's really difficult to stop
when he gets going with the full head of steam,
and so they just have all of this offensive talent.
It's been super resilient too. Like in the five games
that the Knicks have played against top ten defenses according
to Cleaning the Glass, they have a one to seventeen
offensive rating, which ranks fifth in the NBA. So their
offense has continued to function even when they've played the
higher level defenses in the league. During the eight and
(23:31):
two stretch that they are in in their last ten games,
their defense has been a little bit better too. They
have a one to thirteen point eight defensive rating, which
is seventeenth in the league over that span.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
It's a little more complicated.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
Than that, right, Like Orlando is a team that they
could go under picks on, that they could play off
of guys and kind of pack the paint. Most of
the limited offenses they've played, they've been able to shut down.
But like Phoenix lit him up a little bit, Denver
lit him up a little bit, Dallas let him up
a little bit, they just happen to outscore Phoenix because
they scored one hundred and thirty eight points, and they
happen to outscore Denver because they scored one hundred and
(24:04):
forty five points. But like, the only reason I'm really
concerned there, and the only reason I'm harping on that
all season is because I think in the big picture,
you've got to think about everything through the lens of Boston.
You won't be able to outscore Boston. I think they'll
be able to outscore basically any other team in the
league if they need to in a series. I feel
like that's an option, which is like, we can just
score crazy well and give ourselves a chance to beat
(24:26):
this team. I feel like they can do that to
get to just about anybody, but Boston is a completely
different story, and you're going to have to find a
way to slow down Boston's offense if you're gonna have
any chance to win that conference. So like really encouraging
stuff on the offensive end of the floor, everything coming
together with the vision that you would have expected when
make with making a deal for a guy like Michal
(24:46):
Bridges with making a deal for a guy like Karl
Anthony Towns. The two man game with Karl Anthony Towns
and Jalen Brunston continues to be devastating all sorts of
encouraging stuff there, but I'm gonna keep harping on in
the defense all season because it's just something that they
need to polish up if they're gonna contend with the
team like Boston. On the Orlando front, I thought this
was really fascinating. They're second in defensive rating on the season,
(25:06):
but this was yet another example of their defense getting
lit up by an elite offense. The Knicks are number
one in offense. They put a one to seventeen offensive
rating on the Magic. Memphis is number five in offense.
They put a one to eighteen offensive rating on the Magic.
The Cavs are second in offense. They put a one
to seventeen offensive rating on the Magic. The Lakers or
a top five offense at the time of their matchup.
(25:26):
They've slipped to ten now, but they're still top ten.
They hung a one to twenty one offensive rating on
the Orlando Magic. In fact, according to Cleaning the Glass,
despite the Magic being second in defense overall, they're just
fourteenth in defense against the ten best offenses in the league,
so it's not a very resilient defense. The top five
(25:47):
most resilient defenses, by the way, for those wondering. This
is just a little side note. Memphis, Houston, OKC, the Clippers,
and Golden State all teams with just an absurd amount
of speed. Now what's causing the problem? When I watched
the Magic, the consistent theme is they get spread out
and lit up from three in those games. So like
when they can play teams and they can really pack
(26:07):
the paint, their size becomes a big problem. And they
do have speed at the guard position, but without Paalo,
they're not as mobile on the front line as they
could be at times, and they can get a little
bit reckless with their gambling. And this team is third
best in the league at forcing turnovers, second best at
blocking shots, but when they leave their feet or when
they lunge for the ball against smart teams, they can
(26:28):
end up in rotation. And when they're in rotation, some
of their bigger, slower guys can be an issue there.
It's again, it's not a huge deal, and I do
think Palo is a major help there because like going
just adding another guy who's six ' ten and pretty
damn fast is going to go a long way to
helping them cover ground in rotation. But it's just something
interesting to keep an eye and eye on in terms
(26:49):
of a trend, which is that the Orlando Magic are
getting stops against everybody except the best offenses in the league,
and in those games, they're getting lit up from three
and getting kind of burned in rotation a lot. Just
something to keep an eye as we progress through this season.
(27:15):
All before we get out of here, let's move on
to Memphis Dallas kind of a wild game. Memphis completely
dominated most of the second half. John Morant was like
annihilating them. He's just getting to wherever he wanted on
the floor. He had twenty six points just in the
second half, and Dallas kind of felt like they were
on their heels most of the game. And by the way,
Memphis has been a top five offense this year, and
it starts with John. No one can really guard this guy.
(27:36):
He's playmaking at an extremely high level. He's just slicing
and dicing teams in the middle of the lane. He
hasn't been shooting very well this year, but he's got
such a repertoire of counter moves and over the top
shots that he can hit in the short to mid range,
like he's over fifty two percent on floaters and hooks
this year. So even though he's shooting like a super
low twenty nine percent on off the dribble jump shots,
(27:58):
he's still getting enough over the top shot creation as
an option for him in the short to mid range,
and his playmaking has been so good there it's just
been a problem for a lot of teams in this league,
as Memphis has been a really good offense. But Dallas
walked him down in that fourth quarter.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
PJ.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Washington I thought it was the star of that run.
He had a couple of huge threes. He beat Jay
huff On a driving a close out out of the
right corner where he made a really athletic move towards
the rim. He also got the key stop on John
Morant a possession where again, like with Jaw, you give
him space because the pull up jumper's not there. But
even if you beat him to the first spot, it's
his counter moves that he has in that mid range
(28:34):
euro steps, spins. He hit Klay Thompson with a disgusting
spin move in that fourth quarter that just left him
like glued to the floor, and like he just has
all these counter moves in that range, so you have
to like absorb contact by beating him to the spot.
Then you have to recover to that secondary move, and
he got a great contest on a John Morant little
mid range shot where he forced him to really fade
and have to shoot it higher than he typically does
(28:54):
and forced a mist. It was a huge stop in
that game. Luka Dancic hit a huge three. John Murray
hit a three that put him up eight. He had
a huge three a step back over Marcus Smart that
pulled them back within five and kept the game close.
Derek Lively had two huge offensive rebounds, and then Spencer
Dinwoodie hit the biggest shots of the game and running
transition three on the right wing that kind of was
a little bit of an iffy shot, but like he
(29:15):
got his legs into it and he shot it up
in the air and he knocked it down and then
a couple of possessions two. I think it was the
very next possession. Actually, he ends up hitting the dagger
on the right wing that puts the Mavericks up five
and they get out of there for the game. Now,
before we move on to some of the big picture stuff,
a lot of talk for coming out of that game
about free throw differential and like oh my god, the
(29:36):
refs just gave Dallas so many free throws in that
fourth quarter, and blah blah, blah blah, And like, you
guys know how I feel about this sort of thing,
Like I am consistent across the board, regardless of team,
regardless of who it is. I think complaining about free
free throw differential is the lamest, the lamest shit in
the world. It's a loser mentality. Even when I see
pros and pro coaches do it, I'm like, ugh, Like
that's just such a bad look because like once again,
(29:58):
when you go on the road, you expect that you're
gonna probably be on the wrong end of a couple
of calls. It's part of your mental toughness going into
that situation. You have to be ready for it, prepared
for it, and be willing to play through it.
Speaker 2 (30:09):
Right.
Speaker 1 (30:10):
And then nine times out of ten, when I go
back and watch these games and I see a free
throw differential, the team that's getting more free throws is
almost always the team that is playing a style that
is conducive to it. They're usually playing with more force.
They tend to have like a play style that is
maybe more grifty and just better at getting to the line.
They usually are bigger and more athletic, and smaller players
(30:30):
are trying to compensate for it by hacking and doing
that sort of thing. And like I watched that game, like, yeah,
there were a couple of calls. I didn't like the
offensive rebound with the one that got reviewed where they
ended up reversing it and giving Derek Lively to free throws,
Like yeah, I disagree with that. I think it should
have just been Dallas side out of bounds or based
on out of bounds, like if you're it just as
(30:51):
ridiculous to just reward somebody with free throws for contact
that happens all the time in the end of these games,
and guys are fighting for rebounds, so like, yeah, I
thought that was a bad call.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
There was also a.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Jaren Jackson baseline drive where I thought he got Derek
Leively was out of position and I thought he kind
of came down on his shoulder. I thought it should
have been a foul, right, But the rest of them,
like Marcus Smart trying to fight over the top of
a screen against Luka Doncicz, like forty five feet from
the basket and tripping him, Like that's a stupid foul,
(31:20):
and it's a foul every single time you tripped him.
So he fell. The ref's not gonna just let it
go and you're in the penalty and again that's a
pick forty five feet from the basket. Luca's not gonna
pull up that shot, just go under by. By physically
fighting over the top of that screen, you put the
ref in a position where he could make a call,
and he did. There was another play. It was a
three point game, like with like two minutes left, and
(31:44):
Luca gets a defensive rebound and Marcus Smart just runs
in and hacks him on both arms, like right in
front of the ref. If you watch the replay that,
you can see the ref like blow the whistle and
kind of shake his head a little bit as if like, dude,
you're making me make the call, like what the hell
are you doing?
Speaker 2 (31:59):
And so like.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
But more often than not, when I see games like
that and I go back and look, the team that
ends up in the free throw disparity is just doing
stupid shit. And that's what Memphis was doing. Yeah, there
were a couple of bad calls. You're right, it's part
of the game. If you go on the road, you
expect to get a couple of bad calls. I'll be
rooting for the Lakers tonight in Miami. I expect them
(32:20):
to get a couple of bad calls down the stretch
of that game. That's just how it goes when you
play basketball, especially when you go on the road. It's
always a part of the game. It could happen to
you at home too. It's a variable. You go into
games knowing the refs are gonna make mistakes, just like
we are going to make mistakes. That is part of basketball.
And again, like I'm not trying to harp on Memphis
(32:40):
fans here because I've seen Dallas fans do it. Hell
Lakers fans. The Lakers have the best free throw differential
in the league over the last couple of years, and
I've seen Laker fans say Lebron gets the worst whistle
and oh ad got hacked on that one, like everyone
does it. I personally think it's lame. I think it's
completely I think it's a huge waste of time to
even focus on. I have big picture concerns about officiating
(33:03):
in the NBA, but I think talking about it within
the scale of within the scope of competition is a
big waste of time, and I think it's a loser mentality.
And again, like this has been a consistent theme from Memphis.
They have struggled with execution and decision making at the
end of games they're two and six and clutch situations.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
This year.
Speaker 1 (33:20):
They had a negative clutch net rating a couple of
years ago when Joe was healthy most of the season. Again, like,
this is one of those things where it's like a
lot of times at the end of these games, it'll
swing on a couple of decisions. Marcus Smart rushed three
at the above the break on a ghost screen. That
was a bad shot. Him committing those two bad fouls,
those three mistakes get wiped out, that could be a
(33:41):
very different game, right, Like, it's just more often than not,
it just comes down to your decision making and execution
in those situations, not something out of your control like
the refs or something along those lines. And bottom line
is John Moran, after slicing and dicing them all night,
really couldn't get anything for himself except for that three
point shot that he hit from above the break during
crunch time. So like that was the issue at the
(34:03):
end of that game. Luca was able to consistently generate
some pretty high quality shots, and Memphis was it. They
ended up getting the win and of key offensive rebounds
for Dallas. Things along those lines. I was thinking about
this while I was watching the game last night. I
think Dallas is the third best team in the entire NBA.
I landed here in a different way than I did
(34:23):
last year. Like last year, I had Dallas as third
as well. Going into the playoffs, I had Boston and
Denver and then a end of a tier, and then
I had Dallas as the top of the second tier
of championship teams. This year, I came in with Dallas
at number five. I had Denver and New York above them.
But from what I've seen from all three of those
teams this year, I think Dallas is better than both
(34:44):
of them. They just have so many good players, and
some of last year's guys have gotten better. Luke and
Kyrie or Luke and Kyrie. I'm not going to get
too far into them. Like Luca's numbers are down this
year and everyone's freaking out. I couldn't care less. I
expect Luca to be a better player than and he
was last year. By the time he gets to the postseason,
as long as he says healthy. So I'm just not
worried about Luca. And by the way, in his last
(35:06):
two games, he's averaging thirty seven points, ten rebounds, nine
assists on fifty seven percent from the field in forty
seven percent from three with seven steals. By the way,
as he continues to play passing lanes really well, like Lucas,
seems to be getting back to form, I'm not worried
about him.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
PJ.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
Washington is shooting the ball much better than he did
last year. You remember last year after the finals when
I talked about how much PJ. Washington would probably be
repping above the above the break threes all summer in
the gym. Well, he's shooting forty nine percent on above
the break threes this year. He has good form. I
think he's capable of being a reliable shooter there and
that could be key for the Boston matchup. As we know,
in the Boston matchup with Darre Jones out of the equation,
(35:43):
that's likely going to be a center on PJ Washington
and him needing to hit pick and pop jump shots.
If they were to get back into that matchup. Those
above the break threes are vitally important for them in
that specific matchup. He's also just a really good functional athlete.
Like he got that key stop against Jaw, He gets
contested defense, rebounds, he brings real downhill force driving close outs,
(36:03):
he can beat mismatches in the post. He's just a
really really good player. Dereklively is just awesome. He had
six offensive rebounds last night. Last year, Derek Lively was
basically a one to one assist to turnover guy. This
year he's a two to one assist to turnover guy.
Like I talked about guys getting better, Derek Lively and PJ.
Washington are just better basketball players now than they were
last year. That's an ad of talent to this team.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
By the way, Derek G.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
Lively's over fifty percent on hooks when he needs to
finish over the top of a switch or a quick
offensive rebound put back, something along those lines. He's generated
thirteen points on ten post ups this year. That's low volume,
but that's one point three points per possession. When you
dump the ball to the block to Derek Lively, Him
and PJ. Washington just make for a very athletically imposing frontline.
The defensive rebound really well when the two of them
(36:45):
are on the floor together. Dallas has not been a
good defensive rebounding team this year, but they get seventy
five percent of their defensive rebounds that are available when
PJ and Derek Glively are on the floor together. They
both can switch in ball screens and guard perimeter players.
They run the floor super well. Dallas has a ninety
six percentile transition defense when those two are on the
floor together, and they provide spacing in their own ways,
(37:07):
with PJ. Washington knocking down shots and driving closeouts, and
with Derek Lively as a vertical spacer and a guy
who can make plays in the four on three when
he gets ignored in blitzes and stuff like that.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
So like PJ.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
Washington and Derek Lively have both gotten better, Daniel Gafford
gives them depth to have a good center on the
floor for forty eight minutes. Spencer Dinwoody has become like
their de facto third option and is closing games for
them at the three. In the last five games, Spencer
dinwood He's averaging seventeen points and six assists on fifty
two percent from the field in fifty two percent from
three not to mention, he gives them a good perimeter
(37:38):
defense option in that lineup. And you know, I actually
find this really fascinating because I wanted the Lakers to
bring Spencer Dinwoody back. I thought he was a good player,
but he did not have a good offensive season the
brief time that he was in LA And a big
part of that was where he was in the pecking order.
Like Austin was getting more touches than Spencer. De loo
is getting more touches in Spencer. Lebron's getting more touches
than Spencer. Hell Ruey's getting more touches than Spencer. Anthony
(37:59):
Davis is getting more touches than Spencer. Spencer was like
the sixth option on that team, as he'd come in as.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
A backup guard. Right.
Speaker 1 (38:06):
So, like as I look at Dallas's situation and the
recent success that Spencer's had, Spencer's a rhythm player. He
needs to have the ball in his hands and he
needs to be he needs to feel like he can
take a shot without getting in trouble. He's the kind
of guy, he's a little He's got a little bit
of that audaciousness in him where he's like he will
take that movement transition three in a clutch situation, but
he's also got the confidence in the skill to knock
(38:27):
it down too.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
He just has to be in rhythm.
Speaker 1 (38:29):
And again he'll have stretches when he goes cold and
he has his issues, but I like him as an
option there. It gives them an option, and that's really
the key. It's about versatility. We haven't even talked about
the depth of the roster, guys like Nauji Marshall, Jaden Hardy,
Klay Thompson. Lay Thompson hasn't even played really well this year, right,
But like they have versatility. When you take it the
look at their core four, so Kyrie, Luca, Derek Lively,
(38:51):
and PJ. Washington, we can assume that those five are
more or less or those four are more or less
going to be the closing four for any matchup.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
Right.
Speaker 1 (38:59):
But because of certain players are playing better, they have
a lot of different options. They can go like, oh,
you're playing a big team like the Denver Nuggets and
you need more size, well bringing Maxi Kleba. Just go Luka,
Kyrie and then go PJ. Maxi Derek Lively. Now, all
of a sudden, you've got a lot of size. You
could put a big on Jokic while having a big
in help on the back line. Right, you put Kleeba
on the Jokich and put Lively in help. Right, you
(39:21):
can bring in extra size for that matchup. Oh, we're
guarding Boston and we just need another guy who can
guard on the perimeter really well. Well, you can go
with Naji Marshall at the three or Spencer Dinwoodie with
as well as he's playing. Spencer's a good defender and
he's not a great defender, but he's a good defender
and he can really do the job. He's got long arms,
good size, good strength. It can move pretty well. Right,
Let's say you're playing like a team like in Orlando
(39:44):
or another team that has a lot of size that
likes to match upon a team like the Lakers, for instance,
like Klay Thompson is one of the best options in
the league for like defending players in the post and
shooting the three, and so you could put Clay at
the three for matchups like that. They have a lot
of versatility for different types of matchups in the conference,
and it didn't feel like that last year because they
(40:04):
didn't have, you know, guys like Spencer, didn't Winn Narget,
Nauji Marshall, they didn't have guys like Klay Thompson to
have for those types of looks. Right, they're deep enough
to stay high in the standings all season. We just
saw them whether the loss of Luca for a little while,
and I think they match up better than with Boston
than they did last year. Do I think they'd beat Boston.
I wouldn't pick them, but it's an easier path to see,
(40:26):
Like PJ Washington making above the break threes would really
help in that matchup. I think Luca will be in
better shape and defend better in that series after he
got embarrassed last year. Spencer at the three gives them
another mobile perimeter player to have as an option in
those situations. Kyrie was really cold in that series last year.
It's easy to see a pathway where he would be
better this year. Right, So, like they're a long shot
(40:48):
still because it feels like there's a gap between them
in Boston, but I feel like they've closed that gap
some amount, and so all it takes is certain variables
to go their way for them to be able to
potentially get it done in like a puncher's chance type
of sense, and if you believe in that again, all ads.
All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
The Dallas Mavericks are plus five point fifty to win
the conference and plus eleven hundred to win the title,
So some real odd odds opportunity there if you're looking
to make a bet on Dallas. All right, guys, That's
all I have for today is always a sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting the show. We got another packed
slate tonight and we'll have more game breakdowns than maybe
(41:25):
even some film tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (41:26):
I will see you guys then.
Speaker 1 (41:29):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
What's up guys?
Speaker 1 (41:31):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it.
Host
Jason Timpf
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