Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics' Eastern Conference Finals matchup with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and the Indiana Pacers. Will Indiana be able to stay red hot against a Celtics team which has dominated the East all season long? What are the chances of a Boston collapse? Jason breaks it all down and shares his prediction for who will advance to the NBA Finals to take on Anthony Edwards' Timberwolves or Luka Doncic's Mavericks. #volume
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the volume. Have you Monday again? Everybody up. All of
you guys are having a great start to your week.
We have our first series preview of the Conference finals today.
We're hitting the Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics. You
guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe to
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(02:38):
our hoops tonight. Then keep dropping mail bag questions and
those YouTube comments that we can keep hitting them throughout
the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So we're gonna do just like we usually do on
the series previous. We're gonna go through the season series,
talk about some stats that we saw from the regular
season between these teams, go over the gambling odds, Pacers
on offense, Celtics on offense, and then I will give
my pick. So Boston won the season series three to two.
(03:01):
Boston beat them by forty one at home in early November.
The Pacers beat them in the N Season Tournament quarterfinals.
Remember that was in the N season tournament games where
you actually hosted the game at home, so Indiana was
at home in that game they ended up winning I
think one twenty two to one twelve. Boston then went
and beat them in Indiana by seventeen in early January,
(03:23):
but then two days later, still in Indiana, Indiana one
by two points. So Indiana did get two wins both
in Indiana in the series, and then the Celtics beat
them by five in Boston on January thirtieth. So I
only look at the matchup where Pascal Siakam played, but
if I'm not mistaken to think Al Horford did not
play in that game, and I think that was one
of the games that Tyres Halliburton still missed a good
(03:45):
chunk of the game with his hamstring injuries. So not
too much that we can take away from the regular
season series except for that Indiana has been more confident
in this matchup at home. Stats from the season series,
Boston had a one twenty six offensive writing, Indiana a
one to fourteen offensive ratings, so that's a plus twelve
net in favor of Boston. Boston dominated the rebound the
(04:07):
rebounding battle, fifty six point one percent of available rebounds
went to Boston. Indiana one points off of turnovers sixteen
point six to thirteen point eight per game, second chance
points fifteen point four to fourteen point eight per game,
fast break points scored thirteen point four to twelve point
eight per game, and points in the paint fifty five
point two to fifty one point six. So Indiana does
(04:28):
have advantages in the margins in this series, but I
think Boston is very clearly the better half court team,
which we'll get into in detail here in just a minute.
Per DraftKings, the Celtics are favored once again to win
by a massive margin. They are minus nine hundred on
DraftKings to advance to the NBA Finals. Right, let's start
with the Pacers on offense. I'm gonna go through the
(04:49):
matchups really quick and then we'll get into some details.
So Jalen Brown, Drew Holliday, and Derek White all spent
time on Tyre Saliburton as a primary matchup during the
regular season, but I think they'll probably start with Derek White,
and Derek White was the direction they went in their
most recent matchup, so I think that's the direction they're
gonna go with Andrew Nemhard. I think we'll see Drew
Holliday in that matchup with Aaron Nei Smith. I think
(05:10):
we'll see Jalen Brown at least to start. We're gonna
go over some options here in a minute with the
Siakam Turner matchups. That's where it gets interesting because Miles
Turner is shooting forty six percent from three in these playoffs,
Pascal Siakam is only shooting thirty two percent. So Boston
may end up starting with Horford on Turner, but they'll
be extremely vulnerable to the pick and pop there, right Like,
(05:31):
that's one of the pet actions that Indiana's gonna run.
Halliburton's gonna bring the ball up the floor. Turner's gonna
set the screen. As Halliburton turns the corner, it goes
downhill and attacks at Horford or at Porzingis, whoever it is,
and Derek White or whoever it is on the ball
is chasing after Halliburton. Turner is just gonna pop out
to that three point line and he's gonna be wide open.
That's gonna be a big coverage gap. That Indiana can
(05:54):
take advantage of in this series. This is where Jason
Tatum and his defensive versatility comes to the table. And
we talked a lot about this in this playoff run,
like for all of the conversations surrounding Tatum's scoring inconsistency,
which I think is fair when it comes to his
total packages a basketball player, because he's such a big,
strong forward, because he has such a high basketball IQ
through his experience in all these big games, he's a
(06:16):
very useful like Swiss army knife and a lot of
these types of situations we saw, for instance, in the
Cleveland series, Jason Tatum take Evan Mobley for long stretches
because he could switch ball screens. Right. That's going to
be a big direction that I think we'll see Boston
go in this series. I think sooner than later we'll
see Jason Tatum move over to the Miles Turner matchup.
(06:37):
The advantage there is Turner's not going to be able
to bully Tatum in the post. And then if you
run a ball screen with Haliburton and Turner, you can
literally just switch it. And now Tatum is on Halliburton
and Derek White will or excuse me, Now, Tatum's on Haliburton,
you have Derek White or whoever it is that's on
the ball, that's on Miles Turner. And again if they
go if Indiana tries to attack through the post with
(06:58):
Miles Turner, you're just kind of ok hey with that there, right, So, like,
I think we'll see that direction eventually because Pascal Siakam
is shooting only thirty two percent from three, and also
Al Horford is very gifted positional defender. One of the
Horford's best traits as a defender is he can read
you and find out which direction you're going, beat you
to the spot, and then offer contests and make you
(07:20):
shoot over the top. Like he's not a super aggressive
ball pressure like forced turnovers guy, but he's a guy
that can at least play you into your weaknesses as
a basketball player. And so with Siakam, that's what that's
going to be, preventing him from getting downhill and all
the way to the rim, but rather just beating him
to spots and forcing him to make shots over the top.
So in ISO situations, I like Horford to at least
(07:43):
be able to do a decent job on Siakam and
then closing out to the three point line. I expect
hit him to be able to close out short and
kind of just contain as he's driving. Now, what if
Siakam gets going, Because we've seen this right, Like, Siakam
has had issues where like let's say, for instance, that
they the Pacers go to Turner ball screens and Tatum
(08:07):
switches and they kind of shut that down. So they go, Okay,
let's bring Horford up into the ball screen. Let's attack
with Siakham as a screener. Right, Siakam's probably going to
pop and in those situations you're having Horford off for
a late close out. Now, let's say that Horford, Let's
say that Siakam gets going, right, Siakam hits a few threes.
Maybe it turns out that Siakam's too fast for Horford
(08:27):
at this phase of his career and he just starts
toasting Horford off the dribble. Maybe even when Porzingis is
in the game later points in the series, if you
have similar problems there, there's another option that Boston can
go to that I think makes some sense. You could
actually end up sliding Jalen Brown onto Siakam and once
again switch those screens in the event that they run
(08:48):
Siakam in the ball screen because of the fact that
Aaron Smith has not been shooting the ball particularly well
from three. He's shooting thirty percent from three in the playoffs.
He hit two for two in Game seven against the Nick,
but he was pretty cold in the few games before that.
So you could basically just put Horford on Nie Smith
in Rome and try conceding those threes, which will allow
you to contain the ball screen actions with Halliburton and
(09:13):
Siakam or Halliburton in Turner. And that's just the advantage
of having two forwards like Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum
that have the versatility to guard guards and to guard
bigger players. Now, the biggest issue Boston will have, in
my opinion, is going to have to do mainly with
Halliburton when he's coming off of those screens with speed
when Horford is in the action. So let's say Horford's
(09:35):
on Nie Smith and they and Horford comes up to
the level of the screen on Halliburton. One of the
weaknesses that Boston has, as we saw with Donovan Mitchell
in the last round, and as we saw a little
bit with Tyler Harrow in the first round. Although it's
a much lesser player, they can be somewhat vulnerable to
pull up shooters, right, guys that can come off the
(09:56):
screen with pace and kind of cause issues for that
screen defender coming up to the level. That's something that
Boston has shown some vulnerability too. So that's like the
one thing in the half court where I could see
Indiana having a good amount of consistent success is Like,
I do think that Tyris Halliburton is capable of doing
some damage to Horford in ball screens or Porzingis in
(10:19):
ball screens. But outside of that, though, I think they've
got the personnel to make things a lot more difficult
elsewhere on the floor. Indiana's main advantage as an offensive
team in this series is going to be in transition.
So they've scored three hundred and twenty nine points in
transition in this playoff run. That's twenty five point three
per game. That's the most out of any of the
(10:41):
playoff teams that have appeared in this playoff run. They
are the only one of the four remaining teams in
the Conference finals to average over twenty transition points per game.
So as much as Boston's half court personnel has the
ability to match up with Indiana in all of these ways.
That's not where Indiana is going to look to attack.
They're gonna look to run like absolute crazy. This is
(11:02):
where Halliburton and TJ. McConnell, they are just these these
straight line, drive, dribble penetration wreck havoc type of guys
right and getting out in transition, getting cross matches, getting
you know, they'll they'll they'll try to push and see
if they can't get early offense opportunities for Siakam to
attack against like a Derek White or one of their
(11:22):
smaller guards. Right Like, they're going to constantly be looking
to push as much as possible. But there's another side
of this point. Boston has been the best transition defense
in our transition defense, i should say, in the playoffs
so far, they've allowed just fourteen point six points in
transition per game. That is the fewest out of any
of the sixteen teams that have appeared in a playoff
(11:43):
series this year. So it's kind of like a you know,
it's kind of like a clash of two elite units there,
Indiana's transition offense versus Boston's transition defense. Here are the
keys for both teams in my opinion, for Boston have
to contain the ball. They have excellent guard defenders Drew
Holliday and with Derek White right. If they contain drible
(12:05):
penetration for TJ McConnell and Tyrs Alliburn, that will shut
Indiana's offense off. They're an advantage creation offense. All their
guys off the ball are play finishers. Aaron E. Smith
is a play finisher. Andrew Nemhard can run second side action,
but not to a super effective level against super elite defenses.
So I look at him as a guy that if
you can avoid advantage situations, you can contain a little bit.
(12:27):
Siakam is a guy that can operate on an island
a little bit, but he's an elite play finisher. Miles
Turner is a play finisher. The Obi Toppen is a
play finisher. These are guys that you know, even Ben
Sheppard play finisher. These are guys that are primarily looking
to attack with an advantage. So if you can contain
drible penetration not just in the half court, but also
in transition by getting back and just kind of containing
(12:47):
their ball handlers, you will go do a lot of
damage to Indiana's offense. Second part of it protect Horford
and Perzingis as much as possible by giving them easier
matchups Miles Turner pick and pop. That can be an issue,
right Siakam potentially could be an issue, although I think
Corford has a chance to do a decent job on him.
But finding ways to stash him on a guy like
(13:09):
a Nie Smith, who you don't need to necessarily worry
about to a great extent on the three point line,
that could go a long way to protecting those guys
in ball screens. Nie Smith is also not a great
movement shooter, so if he pops to the three point
line in ball screens, as long as they're up at
the level and they contain the ball, you can almost
deal with some of the issues that you have in
terms of foot speed containing Haliburton by like just being
(13:32):
super aggressive, like coming way out to the level, just
making him get rid of the basketball because he's going
to be getting rid of it to Niemith, who hasn't
shot the ball particularly well. Now, Nie Smith will slash
off the catch on the wing, and that's a way
he can do a lot of damage. Hit a lot
of that in Game seven against the Knicks, right, But
that's something that you can deal with in defensive rotation.
So again, containing the ball in transition in the half
(13:53):
court is going to be the major piece there, and
protecting Horford in porzingis by giving them easier matchups for Indiana,
attack Horford whatever he is. As we saw, like I
talked about earlier with Donovan Mitchell and Tyler Harrow, you
can have success against Boston's defense by attacking them in
ball screens with pull up shooters. Right, tyres Alburton has
been shooting the ball a lot better as of late.
He brings a lot of speed to the equation there.
(14:16):
That is their best entry point in the half court.
Attacking the big guys in ball screens push in transition
to the maximum possible extent. This is going to have
another layer to it on the defensive end, which we'll
get to in a minute. But I think they're going
to lose the half court battle. Boston is better half
court personnel, so you have to sow chaos as much
as possible. Get push the ball at the floor, look
(14:36):
for quick cross matches for Siakam, look for runouts, quick
early threes, early offense, just upping the pace as much
as possible to turn the series into a track meet.
That to me is their only hope. Let's look at
Boston on offense with Derek White. I think I think
we'll see Andrew Nemhart there with Drew Holliday. I think
we'll see Tyre's Halliburton. Their main reason why is Drew
(14:56):
Holliday is not as good of a movement shooter as
Derek White is. Right, So if Halliburton's going to hedge
and recover, you want to hedge and recover and leave
an opening with Drew Holliday. Like we talked about with
the Knicks series. I remember there's a lot of hedging
and blitzing from Halliburton, but it was Duce McBride who
was primarily operating out of that right, So you want
to make the worst movement shooter of the group try
(15:17):
to move a work off of those Halliburton hedges. I
think we'll see Siakam on Jaln Brown, and I think
we'll see Aaron Nesmith on Jason Tatum at least to start.
We'll see if they tweak the matchups over the course
of the series. The Tatum White. So here's the thing
I want to start with. Let's start with Aaron E.
Smith on Jason Tatum. So Aaron Nesmith is quicker than
(15:38):
Jason Tatum, and he's got a really strong build, so
he can avoid some of the bully ball stuff. So
on an island, whenever they go like one on one,
he should be able to force Tatum to settle into
pull up jumpers. And the main issue there is just
fouling because like in the for instance, in Season Tournament
championship game, there were a bunch of possessions down the
stretch of that game where Nie Smith forced Tatum to
(16:00):
settle for tough contested mid range jumpers, but he like
fouled him on one on the left baseline where he
kind of pressed too far up underneath him. So that's
the main piece is just be careful not to foul him.
But in the on an Island of situations, I really
really like that matchup, specifically with the Tatum White two
man game. They ran that a bunch down the stretch
of the n Season Tournament not championship, excuse me, quarterfinal,
(16:21):
but in the Ncason Tournament quarterfinal, they ran a lot
of Derek White, Jason Tatum two man game and in
those setups, Nee Smith was able to fight over the
top of the screens and avoid switches in many of
those cases, and that actually helped stagnate Boston's offense down
the stretch of that game. Anything with Drew Holliday, like
I mentioned earlier, you hedge and recover with Aliburton. If
Boston looks to just attack Haliburton, so like they just
(16:44):
throw the ball to Drew Holiday and try to post
up or Iso Halliburton, I take that as a win
for Indiana because that's like a rhythm disruptor for the
rest of the offense. Even if he scores a few
buckets in the post each half, like it just kind
of disrupts the flow of Boston's offense, which at its
best is i and kicking for wide open threes right
keys for both teams with Boston ball movement, don't get
(17:08):
carried away with matchup hunting, generate a quick advantage and
playoff of that. The main advantage actions that I look
at for them are Horford pick and pop right because
Miles Turner is going to run a drop coverage. So
just like we talked about earlier with Miles Turner. If
like let's say Aaron E. Smith is on Tatum. If
Nie Smith is gonna chase Tatum over the top and
Turner is gonna corral him in a drop coverage, then
(17:31):
Horford can pop to the three point line. He's gonna
be open every single time from there. If he's got
the three point shot going, he can keep shooting it.
If not, he can play drive and kick. Just rip
to the middle, bring that next defender, or swing to
a probably a really good shooter standing in the corner. Right,
So that's a good entry point for them. Secondly, Drew
slipping out of the hedge and blitz just like what
the Knicks did with with Duce McBride, right, Halliburton hedges
(17:54):
just quickly get rid of the ball to Drew on
the roll. I think that's where you go with Tatum
because Tatum can see over the time really well and
he'll handle those blitzes really well. I think Tatum's the
best passer, So just have that. Have Tatum handle that action.
When Haliburton hedges, just dump it off to Drew. Same
thing we just talked about with Al Horford. If he's
got the shot going, take the shot. If not, just
(18:15):
drive the drive that advantage from the top of the key,
bring in an extra defender, make those kickouts from there.
But again, ball movement's gonna be key. Do not play
down to the competition. Hunt elite shot quality throughout this series.
And again this you gotta look at it like there's
a decent chance. According to Vegas, I think Minnesota is
a minus one ninety favorite to beat Dallas. I will
(18:36):
be picking Minnesota in all likelihood. I haven't done my
series preview yet, but that's what I'm most likely gonna pick.
You're gonna be playing just an unbelievably good defense potentially
in the championship round. And I think Dallas is better
defense than Indiana anyway. So like, it's gonna be a
tough battle in the NBA Finals, And like, this is
another series where you have an opportunity to kind of
polish up some of your decision making before you get
(18:56):
to that point. Lastly, get favorable Tatum. I like Tatum
attacking literally anybody except for Aaron Nesmith on this Pacers roster.
I think he's got a quickness and strength advantage against
Pascal Siakam. I think he's got a speed advantage against
any of any of the bigger players that Indiana will play.
(19:17):
I think he can do damage to the smaller guards,
guys like or Nemhard and Halliburton. But Nis Smith specifically,
I think is like the fire hydrant type that can
keep him in front and force him into contested jumpers.
So set solid screens to four switches, pushing the ball
in transition to get cross matches. And then whenever you
get those mismatches for Tatum, just clear the side and
(19:38):
let him go to work. That's where I think Tatum
is at his best. Cleared side usually from the right block,
is where I prefer Tatum going to work. And then lastly,
I put this in all bold just shot selection, just
decision making and shot selection. Like I mentioned earlier, you're
prepping for a much tougher challenge in the future. This
is a series where you've got to tighten those things
up before you get into the next round. On the
(19:59):
Indie A front, how do you play Boston into poor
shooting Knights. That's your best chance to win, right. The
easiest way to play a team and do a poor
shooting night is by fatiguing them. How do you fatigue
them through physicality, which is like ball pressure right, just
doing everything with force to make sure they're tired, and
then two push the pace. This is the defensive element
of making the game into a track meet. Tired legs
(20:20):
are more likely to miss shots, make Boston play faster
than they're typically used to playing. You have a better
opportunity of playing them into poor shooting nights. But the
reality is Boston is going to get good looks from
three in this series, and if they make them, you're
probably going to lose. That's the problem with having five
shooters on the floor the way that Boston does and
having a guy like Halliburton that you can easily attack
(20:42):
and get the defense in rotation. So even just having
a pick and pop pig like the Celtics are gonna
have two easy actions they can run at any given time,
which is the Horford pick and pop or the Drew
Holiday pick and slip. Any one of those, you're gonna
get the defense in rotation. From there, you're playing drive
and kick with five shooters, so Boston's gonna get great
looks in the half court. Really, I think Indiana's only
(21:05):
chance is to just play crazy fast and try to
fatigue Boston into having poor shooting nights and just kind
of leaning into their specific advantages. I'm picking Boston. I
think they have better personnel on both ends of the floor,
and I think they have the best player in the series.
But I do think Indiana is gonna push this series
to six games. Boston has a tendency to ease up
after getting a lead, which we've seen multiple times in
(21:28):
this playoff run already, and Indiana's really good at home.
Indiana six to oh, undefeated at home in this postseason.
They have a one twenty six offensive rating at home.
They've beat Boston at home twice this year. So I
think that Indiana's gonna find ways to extend the series
through just the energy of their home crowd and through
their speed and just them playing super super hard. But
(21:51):
I just have a hard time believing Indiana can win
a series like this four times out of seven when
Boston has the personnel advantages that they have on both
ends of the floor. We will be live on YouTube
after the final buzzer of Game one tomorrow night to
break it all down. I will see you guys there.
(22:29):
The volume
The volume. We're this close to crowning a new NBA champ,
and with the action heating up on the court, it's
even hotter. At DraftKings sports Book, an official sports betting
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and Draftking Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays,
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out or you'll have to wait until next NBA season
(00:21):
to place your bets. It's super easy for first timers
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select your squad, and place your first bet. It's that simple.
The championship odds right now as we head into the
conference finals according to DraftKings, Boston's at minus one point fifty,
the Timberwolves at plus two to seventy five, the Mavericks
(00:41):
at plus five hundred, and the Indiana Pacers a long
shot at plus twenty five hundred. New to DraftKings, listen up.
New customers can get a no sweat bet up to
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up to fifteen hundred bucks if your first bet doesn't
hit only on DraftKings, the Crown is yours. Gambling problem
called one eight hundred gambler or in West Virginia, visit
www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York,
call eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text
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hope and why to four six seven three sixty nine.
In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eight
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and responsible gambling resources. All right, wellcoon HOOPSAINI here at
(02:16):
the volume. Have you Monday again? Everybody up. All of
you guys are having a great start to your week.
We have our first series preview of the Conference finals today.
We're hitting the Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics. You
guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe to
our brand new YouTube channels. You don't miss any more
of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason
lt So you guys don't miss show announcements. So forget
about our podcast feed where you get your podcast un
(02:38):
our hoops tonight. Then keep dropping mail bag questions and
those YouTube comments that we can keep hitting them throughout
the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So we're gonna do just like we usually do on
the series previous. We're gonna go through the season series,
talk about some stats that we saw from the regular
season between these teams, go over the gambling odds, Pacers
on offense, Celtics on offense, and then I will give
my pick. So Boston won the season series three to two.
(03:01):
Boston beat them by forty one at home in early November.
The Pacers beat them in the N Season Tournament quarterfinals.
Remember that was in the N season tournament games where
you actually hosted the game at home, so Indiana was
at home in that game they ended up winning I
think one twenty two to one twelve. Boston then went
and beat them in Indiana by seventeen in early January,
(03:23):
but then two days later, still in Indiana, Indiana one
by two points. So Indiana did get two wins both
in Indiana in the series, and then the Celtics beat
them by five in Boston on January thirtieth. So I
only look at the matchup where Pascal Siakam played, but
if I'm not mistaken to think Al Horford did not
play in that game, and I think that was one
of the games that Tyres Halliburton still missed a good
(03:45):
chunk of the game with his hamstring injuries. So not
too much that we can take away from the regular
season series except for that Indiana has been more confident
in this matchup at home. Stats from the season series,
Boston had a one twenty six offensive writing, Indiana a
one to fourteen offensive ratings, so that's a plus twelve
net in favor of Boston. Boston dominated the rebound the
(04:07):
rebounding battle, fifty six point one percent of available rebounds
went to Boston. Indiana one points off of turnovers sixteen
point six to thirteen point eight per game, second chance
points fifteen point four to fourteen point eight per game,
fast break points scored thirteen point four to twelve point
eight per game, and points in the paint fifty five
point two to fifty one point six. So Indiana does
(04:28):
have advantages in the margins in this series, but I
think Boston is very clearly the better half court team,
which we'll get into in detail here in just a minute.
Per DraftKings, the Celtics are favored once again to win
by a massive margin. They are minus nine hundred on
DraftKings to advance to the NBA Finals. Right, let's start
with the Pacers on offense. I'm gonna go through the
(04:49):
matchups really quick and then we'll get into some details.
So Jalen Brown, Drew Holliday, and Derek White all spent
time on Tyre Saliburton as a primary matchup during the
regular season, but I think they'll probably start with Derek White,
and Derek White was the direction they went in their
most recent matchup, so I think that's the direction they're
gonna go with Andrew Nemhard. I think we'll see Drew
Holliday in that matchup with Aaron Nei Smith. I think
(05:10):
we'll see Jalen Brown at least to start. We're gonna
go over some options here in a minute with the
Siakam Turner matchups. That's where it gets interesting because Miles
Turner is shooting forty six percent from three in these playoffs,
Pascal Siakam is only shooting thirty two percent. So Boston
may end up starting with Horford on Turner, but they'll
be extremely vulnerable to the pick and pop there, right Like,
(05:31):
that's one of the pet actions that Indiana's gonna run.
Halliburton's gonna bring the ball up the floor. Turner's gonna
set the screen. As Halliburton turns the corner, it goes
downhill and attacks at Horford or at Porzingis, whoever it is,
and Derek White or whoever it is on the ball
is chasing after Halliburton. Turner is just gonna pop out
to that three point line and he's gonna be wide open.
That's gonna be a big coverage gap. That Indiana can
(05:54):
take advantage of in this series. This is where Jason
Tatum and his defensive versatility comes to the table. And
we talked a lot about this in this playoff run,
like for all of the conversations surrounding Tatum's scoring inconsistency,
which I think is fair when it comes to his
total packages a basketball player, because he's such a big,
strong forward, because he has such a high basketball IQ
through his experience in all these big games, he's a
(06:16):
very useful like Swiss army knife and a lot of
these types of situations we saw, for instance, in the
Cleveland series, Jason Tatum take Evan Mobley for long stretches
because he could switch ball screens. Right. That's going to
be a big direction that I think we'll see Boston
go in this series. I think sooner than later we'll
see Jason Tatum move over to the Miles Turner matchup.
(06:37):
The advantage there is Turner's not going to be able
to bully Tatum in the post. And then if you
run a ball screen with Haliburton and Turner, you can
literally just switch it. And now Tatum is on Halliburton
and Derek White will or excuse me, Now, Tatum's on Haliburton,
you have Derek White or whoever it is that's on
the ball, that's on Miles Turner. And again if they
go if Indiana tries to attack through the post with
(06:58):
Miles Turner, you're just kind of ok hey with that there, right, So, like,
I think we'll see that direction eventually because Pascal Siakam
is shooting only thirty two percent from three, and also
Al Horford is very gifted positional defender. One of the
Horford's best traits as a defender is he can read
you and find out which direction you're going, beat you
to the spot, and then offer contests and make you
(07:20):
shoot over the top. Like he's not a super aggressive
ball pressure like forced turnovers guy, but he's a guy
that can at least play you into your weaknesses as
a basketball player. And so with Siakam, that's what that's
going to be, preventing him from getting downhill and all
the way to the rim, but rather just beating him
to spots and forcing him to make shots over the top.
So in ISO situations, I like Horford to at least
(07:43):
be able to do a decent job on Siakam and
then closing out to the three point line. I expect
hit him to be able to close out short and
kind of just contain as he's driving. Now, what if
Siakam gets going, Because we've seen this right, Like, Siakam
has had issues where like let's say, for instance, that
they the Pacers go to Turner ball screens and Tatum
(08:07):
switches and they kind of shut that down. So they go, Okay,
let's bring Horford up into the ball screen. Let's attack
with Siakham as a screener. Right, Siakam's probably going to
pop and in those situations you're having Horford off for
a late close out. Now, let's say that Horford, Let's
say that Siakam gets going, right, Siakam hits a few threes.
Maybe it turns out that Siakam's too fast for Horford
(08:27):
at this phase of his career and he just starts
toasting Horford off the dribble. Maybe even when Porzingis is
in the game later points in the series, if you
have similar problems there, there's another option that Boston can
go to that I think makes some sense. You could
actually end up sliding Jalen Brown onto Siakam and once
again switch those screens in the event that they run
(08:48):
Siakam in the ball screen because of the fact that
Aaron Smith has not been shooting the ball particularly well
from three. He's shooting thirty percent from three in the playoffs.
He hit two for two in Game seven against the Nick,
but he was pretty cold in the few games before that.
So you could basically just put Horford on Nie Smith
in Rome and try conceding those threes, which will allow
you to contain the ball screen actions with Halliburton and
(09:13):
Siakam or Halliburton in Turner. And that's just the advantage
of having two forwards like Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum
that have the versatility to guard guards and to guard
bigger players. Now, the biggest issue Boston will have, in
my opinion, is going to have to do mainly with
Halliburton when he's coming off of those screens with speed
when Horford is in the action. So let's say Horford's
(09:35):
on Nie Smith and they and Horford comes up to
the level of the screen on Halliburton. One of the
weaknesses that Boston has, as we saw with Donovan Mitchell
in the last round, and as we saw a little
bit with Tyler Harrow in the first round. Although it's
a much lesser player, they can be somewhat vulnerable to
pull up shooters, right, guys that can come off the
(09:56):
screen with pace and kind of cause issues for that
screen defender coming up to the level. That's something that
Boston has shown some vulnerability too. So that's like the
one thing in the half court where I could see
Indiana having a good amount of consistent success is Like,
I do think that Tyris Halliburton is capable of doing
some damage to Horford in ball screens or Porzingis in
(10:19):
ball screens. But outside of that, though, I think they've
got the personnel to make things a lot more difficult
elsewhere on the floor. Indiana's main advantage as an offensive
team in this series is going to be in transition.
So they've scored three hundred and twenty nine points in
transition in this playoff run. That's twenty five point three
per game. That's the most out of any of the
(10:41):
playoff teams that have appeared in this playoff run. They
are the only one of the four remaining teams in
the Conference finals to average over twenty transition points per game.
So as much as Boston's half court personnel has the
ability to match up with Indiana in all of these ways.
That's not where Indiana is going to look to attack.
They're gonna look to run like absolute crazy. This is
(11:02):
where Halliburton and TJ. McConnell, they are just these these
straight line, drive, dribble penetration wreck havoc type of guys
right and getting out in transition, getting cross matches, getting
you know, they'll they'll they'll try to push and see
if they can't get early offense opportunities for Siakam to
attack against like a Derek White or one of their
(11:22):
smaller guards. Right Like, they're going to constantly be looking
to push as much as possible. But there's another side
of this point. Boston has been the best transition defense
in our transition defense, i should say, in the playoffs
so far, they've allowed just fourteen point six points in
transition per game. That is the fewest out of any
of the sixteen teams that have appeared in a playoff
(11:43):
series this year. So it's kind of like a you know,
it's kind of like a clash of two elite units there,
Indiana's transition offense versus Boston's transition defense. Here are the
keys for both teams in my opinion, for Boston have
to contain the ball. They have excellent guard defenders Drew
Holliday and with Derek White right. If they contain drible
(12:05):
penetration for TJ McConnell and Tyrs Alliburn, that will shut
Indiana's offense off. They're an advantage creation offense. All their
guys off the ball are play finishers. Aaron E. Smith
is a play finisher. Andrew Nemhard can run second side action,
but not to a super effective level against super elite defenses.
So I look at him as a guy that if
you can avoid advantage situations, you can contain a little bit.
(12:27):
Siakam is a guy that can operate on an island
a little bit, but he's an elite play finisher. Miles
Turner is a play finisher. The Obi Toppen is a
play finisher. These are guys that you know, even Ben
Sheppard play finisher. These are guys that are primarily looking
to attack with an advantage. So if you can contain
drible penetration not just in the half court, but also
in transition by getting back and just kind of containing
(12:47):
their ball handlers, you will go do a lot of
damage to Indiana's offense. Second part of it protect Horford
and Perzingis as much as possible by giving them easier
matchups Miles Turner pick and pop. That can be an issue,
right Siakam potentially could be an issue, although I think
Corford has a chance to do a decent job on him.
But finding ways to stash him on a guy like
(13:09):
a Nie Smith, who you don't need to necessarily worry
about to a great extent on the three point line,
that could go a long way to protecting those guys
in ball screens. Nie Smith is also not a great
movement shooter, so if he pops to the three point
line in ball screens, as long as they're up at
the level and they contain the ball, you can almost
deal with some of the issues that you have in
terms of foot speed containing Haliburton by like just being
(13:32):
super aggressive, like coming way out to the level, just
making him get rid of the basketball because he's going
to be getting rid of it to Niemith, who hasn't
shot the ball particularly well. Now, Nie Smith will slash
off the catch on the wing, and that's a way
he can do a lot of damage. Hit a lot
of that in Game seven against the Knicks, right, But
that's something that you can deal with in defensive rotation.
So again, containing the ball in transition in the half
(13:53):
court is going to be the major piece there, and
protecting Horford in porzingis by giving them easier matchups for Indiana,
attack Horford whatever he is. As we saw, like I
talked about earlier with Donovan Mitchell and Tyler Harrow, you
can have success against Boston's defense by attacking them in
ball screens with pull up shooters. Right, tyres Alburton has
been shooting the ball a lot better as of late.
He brings a lot of speed to the equation there.
(14:16):
That is their best entry point in the half court.
Attacking the big guys in ball screens push in transition
to the maximum possible extent. This is going to have
another layer to it on the defensive end, which we'll
get to in a minute. But I think they're going
to lose the half court battle. Boston is better half
court personnel, so you have to sow chaos as much
as possible. Get push the ball at the floor, look
(14:36):
for quick cross matches for Siakam, look for runouts, quick
early threes, early offense, just upping the pace as much
as possible to turn the series into a track meet.
That to me is their only hope. Let's look at
Boston on offense with Derek White. I think I think
we'll see Andrew Nemhart there with Drew Holliday. I think
we'll see Tyre's Halliburton. Their main reason why is Drew
(14:56):
Holliday is not as good of a movement shooter as
Derek White is. Right, So if Halliburton's going to hedge
and recover, you want to hedge and recover and leave
an opening with Drew Holliday. Like we talked about with
the Knicks series. I remember there's a lot of hedging
and blitzing from Halliburton, but it was Duce McBride who
was primarily operating out of that right, So you want
to make the worst movement shooter of the group try
(15:17):
to move a work off of those Halliburton hedges. I
think we'll see Siakam on Jaln Brown, and I think
we'll see Aaron Nesmith on Jason Tatum at least to start.
We'll see if they tweak the matchups over the course
of the series. The Tatum White. So here's the thing
I want to start with. Let's start with Aaron E.
Smith on Jason Tatum. So Aaron Nesmith is quicker than
(15:38):
Jason Tatum, and he's got a really strong build, so
he can avoid some of the bully ball stuff. So
on an island, whenever they go like one on one,
he should be able to force Tatum to settle into
pull up jumpers. And the main issue there is just
fouling because like in the for instance, in Season Tournament
championship game, there were a bunch of possessions down the
stretch of that game where Nie Smith forced Tatum to
(16:00):
settle for tough contested mid range jumpers, but he like
fouled him on one on the left baseline where he
kind of pressed too far up underneath him. So that's
the main piece is just be careful not to foul him.
But in the on an Island of situations, I really
really like that matchup, specifically with the Tatum White two
man game. They ran that a bunch down the stretch
of the n Season Tournament not championship, excuse me, quarterfinal,
(16:21):
but in the Ncason Tournament quarterfinal, they ran a lot
of Derek White, Jason Tatum two man game and in
those setups, Nee Smith was able to fight over the
top of the screens and avoid switches in many of
those cases, and that actually helped stagnate Boston's offense down
the stretch of that game. Anything with Drew Holliday, like
I mentioned earlier, you hedge and recover with Aliburton. If
Boston looks to just attack Haliburton, so like they just
(16:44):
throw the ball to Drew Holiday and try to post
up or Iso Halliburton, I take that as a win
for Indiana because that's like a rhythm disruptor for the
rest of the offense. Even if he scores a few
buckets in the post each half, like it just kind
of disrupts the flow of Boston's offense, which at its
best is i and kicking for wide open threes right
keys for both teams with Boston ball movement, don't get
(17:08):
carried away with matchup hunting, generate a quick advantage and
playoff of that. The main advantage actions that I look
at for them are Horford pick and pop right because
Miles Turner is going to run a drop coverage. So
just like we talked about earlier with Miles Turner. If
like let's say Aaron E. Smith is on Tatum. If
Nie Smith is gonna chase Tatum over the top and
Turner is gonna corral him in a drop coverage, then
(17:31):
Horford can pop to the three point line. He's gonna
be open every single time from there. If he's got
the three point shot going, he can keep shooting it.
If not, he can play drive and kick. Just rip
to the middle, bring that next defender, or swing to
a probably a really good shooter standing in the corner. Right,
So that's a good entry point for them. Secondly, Drew
slipping out of the hedge and blitz just like what
the Knicks did with with Duce McBride, right, Halliburton hedges
(17:54):
just quickly get rid of the ball to Drew on
the roll. I think that's where you go with Tatum
because Tatum can see over the time really well and
he'll handle those blitzes really well. I think Tatum's the
best passer, So just have that. Have Tatum handle that action.
When Haliburton hedges, just dump it off to Drew. Same
thing we just talked about with Al Horford. If he's
got the shot going, take the shot. If not, just
(18:15):
drive the drive that advantage from the top of the key,
bring in an extra defender, make those kickouts from there.
But again, ball movement's gonna be key. Do not play
down to the competition. Hunt elite shot quality throughout this series.
And again this you gotta look at it like there's
a decent chance. According to Vegas, I think Minnesota is
a minus one ninety favorite to beat Dallas. I will
(18:36):
be picking Minnesota in all likelihood. I haven't done my
series preview yet, but that's what I'm most likely gonna pick.
You're gonna be playing just an unbelievably good defense potentially
in the championship round. And I think Dallas is better
defense than Indiana anyway. So like, it's gonna be a
tough battle in the NBA Finals, And like, this is
another series where you have an opportunity to kind of
polish up some of your decision making before you get
(18:56):
to that point. Lastly, get favorable Tatum. I like Tatum
attacking literally anybody except for Aaron Nesmith on this Pacers roster.
I think he's got a quickness and strength advantage against
Pascal Siakam. I think he's got a speed advantage against
any of any of the bigger players that Indiana will play.
(19:17):
I think he can do damage to the smaller guards,
guys like or Nemhard and Halliburton. But Nis Smith specifically,
I think is like the fire hydrant type that can
keep him in front and force him into contested jumpers.
So set solid screens to four switches, pushing the ball
in transition to get cross matches. And then whenever you
get those mismatches for Tatum, just clear the side and
(19:38):
let him go to work. That's where I think Tatum
is at his best. Cleared side usually from the right block,
is where I prefer Tatum going to work. And then lastly,
I put this in all bold just shot selection, just
decision making and shot selection. Like I mentioned earlier, you're
prepping for a much tougher challenge in the future. This
is a series where you've got to tighten those things
up before you get into the next round. On the
(19:59):
Indie A front, how do you play Boston into poor
shooting Knights. That's your best chance to win, right. The
easiest way to play a team and do a poor
shooting night is by fatiguing them. How do you fatigue
them through physicality, which is like ball pressure right, just
doing everything with force to make sure they're tired, and
then two push the pace. This is the defensive element
of making the game into a track meet. Tired legs
(20:20):
are more likely to miss shots, make Boston play faster
than they're typically used to playing. You have a better
opportunity of playing them into poor shooting nights. But the
reality is Boston is going to get good looks from
three in this series, and if they make them, you're
probably going to lose. That's the problem with having five
shooters on the floor the way that Boston does and
having a guy like Halliburton that you can easily attack
(20:42):
and get the defense in rotation. So even just having
a pick and pop pig like the Celtics are gonna
have two easy actions they can run at any given time,
which is the Horford pick and pop or the Drew
Holiday pick and slip. Any one of those, you're gonna
get the defense in rotation. From there, you're playing drive
and kick with five shooters, so Boston's gonna get great
looks in the half court. Really, I think Indiana's only
(21:05):
chance is to just play crazy fast and try to
fatigue Boston into having poor shooting nights and just kind
of leaning into their specific advantages. I'm picking Boston. I
think they have better personnel on both ends of the floor,
and I think they have the best player in the series.
But I do think Indiana is gonna push this series
to six games. Boston has a tendency to ease up
after getting a lead, which we've seen multiple times in
(21:28):
this playoff run already, and Indiana's really good at home.
Indiana six to oh, undefeated at home in this postseason.
They have a one twenty six offensive rating at home.
They've beat Boston at home twice this year. So I
think that Indiana's gonna find ways to extend the series
through just the energy of their home crowd and through
their speed and just them playing super super hard. But
(21:51):
I just have a hard time believing Indiana can win
a series like this four times out of seven when
Boston has the personnel advantages that they have on both
ends of the floor. We will be live on YouTube
after the final buzzer of Game one tomorrow night to
break it all down. I will see you guys there.
(22:29):
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