May 7, 2024 • 30 mins
Jomboy is looking into potential trades for every player on the White Sox, the success rates of bunting for a base hit, and which pitchers changed their pitch mixes and how is that going for them?
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, and welcome to Jimmy's Three Things. Today we will
be trading away the White Sox. Everything must go. We're
gonna be talking about how we're in the glory days
of the bunt single bunt batting average on the rise,
and I'm gonna look at pitchers who are having drastically
different results and what's causing those results. Very quickly at
(00:21):
the end, it's Jimmy's Three Things, which is a production
of Dan Patrick Production, sham Boy Media and Workhouse Media.
Thank you very much for tuning in. Sip of my coffee,
and then we start all right around thirty minutes on
the clock. Topic number one, Let's trade the White Sox.
It's very early, but you know, the Marlins already made
(00:41):
their move if you think about it, we're a quarter
of the way to the deadline. Teams either, you know,
if you know you're gonna trade, you can go shop around.
Apparently the ooh the Royals were also interested in a rise,
so people are talking this. MLB Deadline News said the
white Socks aren't expected the trade. Right hand pitcher Eric Fetti,
(01:02):
right hand pitcher, Chris Flexen, right hand pitcher Mike Clevenger
right hand pitcher Michael Kopek, dh Elloyd, Jim Andez and
alfielder Tommy fam this summer per Nightingale. So we're gonna
go trade these guys. Okay, this is on a whim.
I didn't put like, you know, much thought. We're gonna
it's gonna happen in live time as we're all talking
(01:23):
about it, and then you guys are gonna leave comments
and let me know what you actually think with more
thought out stuff. So, if you have never been to
Baseball References roster research page, this is what it looks like.
It's a lot of colors and stuff, but this is
the White Sox and you can see all the yellow
free agents in twenty twenty five. Well, that means that
(01:45):
this is their last year on the White Sox. They're
gonna be a free agent at the end, so the
White Sox can trade them and get anything in return. Honestly,
a lot of these guys are just gonna be like
some minor leaguers or just salary relief this year, because
if you trade a guy, you don't have to pay
him the last two months of the season, so it
could be like not a lot of return, but you're
(02:06):
not winning, you're not retaining them, so teams will oftentimes
just cut their losses and give that player a chance
to go be on a winning team. So yeah, you're
not gonna get a lot of return. This everything must
go White Sox sale is kind of like, oh look
at that, honey, and everything must go. Let's go check
it out. And then you walk around You're like, ah,
(02:28):
makes sense, Why this place, why everything wants to go? Oh,
well look at that. That's cheap. Okay, let's grab that.
That's what is going on here. So I copied this
page and pasted it into my own Google sheet so
I could just mess with it a little more. There
you have it, and I pro rated the twenty twenty
four salary to what teams would actually pay if they
(02:49):
picked him up. Now, Andrew Ben and Tendee, he's got
this year and then three more. So he's not part
of the sale, he's not traded. He's just let's just
let's just I don't know how how I would do this.
Let's just key's out. Okay, youon Mancata think he's hurt
right now? Luis Roberts really interesting because not only do
(03:11):
you have this year for cheap, next year for cheap.
You have a club option for twenty million the next
two years. If they if they don't think they're going
to extend him and make him part of the next
wave of White Sox talent, then maybe they think about
trading him, similar to Soda when the Nationals traded him
when he had three years remaining or two and a
(03:32):
half years remaining. But that's pretty big. That's a big move.
It sounds more like an offseason trade to me, when
you have more time to figure it out and all that,
not a mid season trade. Okay, So Eric Freddi, he
is going to get traded. He's owed two point four
million dollars if you pro rate it. And this is
if they get traded at the deadline. So if they
trade him way earlier, then it's not that much money.
(03:55):
I mean, I can change the formula to like, I
don't know, forty percent of the season three million. You're
looking around three million dollars and then you get Eric
Fetti next year for seven and a half million dollars.
I already traded him to the race. They see those
numbers and they're like, yeah, we get him this year
(04:15):
and we get him next year, and it's cheap, and
it's a project that people will be like, how did
we turn him around? And I believe if I believe
Eric Fetti, they even say his name, I think so FEddi.
I believe he just shut down the Rays earlier this year.
So let's see game log. Eight point one innings pitched
(04:37):
against the Rays, only allowed to earned runs. So yeah,
they like what they saw. They're already in talks. That's
gonna happen. The rest of these eloy will probably get traded.
As that tweet said, the red means club option, so
if you trade for him, you will get the option
to grab him, but you have to pay him this
price sixteen and a half million for twenty twenty five,
(04:59):
eighteen and billion for twenty twenty six. But you don't
have to do that. That's your option. So really a
rental John Brebia for this year as a reliever. He's
got a buy out, so if you don't pick up
his six million dollar option, you have to pay him
one point five million as a buyout. Clevenger just made
his debut Tommy fam He's built to get traded. Tim
Hill reliever if you want to try and tap into
(05:21):
that flexen the Rays probably picked him up in a
package deal because he is not making a lot of money.
Soroka not sure what you're gonna get there. Kopek is
really interesting because he's got this year and next year available.
So that's really interesting because I think people will think
he'll go next. What I'm gonna do. We already traded
(05:43):
Eric Fatty to the Rays. That's probably happens next week.
I'm gonna go. I want to look at teams this
page and find teams because I think some of these players,
since more better talent will be available as more teams
get out of it that are on the fringe right
now because they're a little better, But some of these
(06:06):
players might get traded for like the summer push before
the deadline. We saw that happen with Giolito. The Twins
did that with like Jimi Garcia or lance Lynn in
twenty eighteen or something like that, or twenty Lancelyn in
twenty eighteen. I think the trade before the trade obviously,
(06:26):
So what teams right now are on the outs that
are gonna give it a go, Like the Blue Jays
may try to pick someone up and then if it
still doesn't work out, then they have a lot to
offer teams if they want to hit that button. Same
with the Red Sox. They're in it. The Red Sox
are good. I think the Red Sox are gonna trade.
Do they need a dh Your sheet has been dhing?
(06:48):
Do they want eloy? Huh? Okay uh? Kansas City? We
heard they were in on the Royals. We heard they
were in on a rise, So they might be looking
for some of these players, the astros that will probably
pick someone up at some point. I don't think they're
gonna trade, but they could that. They looking for first basemen,
(07:13):
maybe some They're definitely looking for starters, like they could
go get Fetty if they think he's gonna be good,
or flexing just to like bridge the gap. Who over
here is gonna pick up pieces. I don't know if
the giants or seller or buyers diamondbacks they're all in,
but I was looking at their roster and I don't
know where they necessarily need help. I was starting pitching.
I don't think you know, you can pick up Clevenger,
(07:35):
see what he can give you for a little bit.
Cubs and Brewers they're pretty tight. It's a nice race.
They're gonna trade. They're gona they're gonna pick up some people.
The Mets are not going to be buyers. They're they
want to sell. They're made to sell. So in the
American League, all of the East is gonna buy. But
(07:57):
but it's those teams that are like not guaranteed a
playoff spot. Right now, if you go to the this
page which has the odds of making the playoffs, like
postseason odds is right here, and let's see we get
down into them. Twins are seventy seven percent. They need
(08:19):
some bats. Would they take Eloy? They've seen him? Sometimes
you trade with Indivision because they've seen what he can do,
and or you've seen him too much and you're like, nah,
would they take him? Let's do twins optional slash. I'll
do a slash here. Clevenger Man Cleveringer to the Astros
(08:43):
just sounds fun. Oh but he's talked a lot of
shit about them and like had playoff series where he
didn't like them. I don't think that matters. Strowman, the
Yankees talking a lot shit, Okay, bowing out fam Back
to the Diamondbacks. How's Jock doing? Joe Computerson, He's dhing
(09:08):
I he's doing really well. Does Jack hit against So
Jock's not hitting against the lefties. Who DH is against lefties?
Alexander Blaize, Blaze Alexander. How did they use FAM last
year and Fam just played against everyone? Can you have
(09:31):
too many dhs? Let's just throw Fam back to the
Diamondbacks because everyone likes that storyline. He can platoon because
Tommy Fams a switch hitter. Correct correct, Jimmy, are you correct?
Or his splits? OHI bat's right? Uh, he's got reverse
splits or the Mets tried to only use them against
one side. They tried to platoon him and then he
(09:53):
was like, no, I want to hit both sides. That
was the story with fam My bad Uh, okay, So
him and Jock are the dhs and Aaron and then
the pinch hitters for other people see reverse splits. Last
year had a much better batting at or was that
this year much better against right handed pitching, which might
not work well for the whole platooning with Jock situation,
(10:15):
But last year his splits were dead even so he'll
get there. He just needs the bats. I love it.
I'm all in. Tommy FAM's going back to Arizona and
he's gonna down the stretch, Him and Jock are gonna
be the rotating platooning DH guys and then they pinch
hit for whoever in the lineup when that needs to happen.
(10:37):
So Diamondbacks for fam awesome fun times. Chris Flexen, who
needs pitching help for that cheap? Let's send him to
the Central Royals? Do they need pitching help? Twins pitchers
have actually been pretty good of late. I believe, did
you guys see Simon Woods Richardson's start pretty good? Uh?
(11:03):
Royals because the Royals were in on a rise. They
want one of these early guys. Just pick them up,
see what can happen, Maybe flip them. Uh all right,
maybe he goes to the Royals, you know the Royals roster,
because's just a true rental. You can also throw him
to the pen if you think he's gonna go there.
Has Flexing been pitching? Well? Is that something I need
(11:25):
to look at? Chris Flexen? What a name? Dude? Do
do do? Do? Do? Uh? Yeah? I mean he's got
no innings accumulated. Oh, he's coming out of the pan
a couple times. One bad outing here we give up
six earned runs. Other than that, the start didn't start
that hot. Okay, so he started three games, wasn't going
(11:45):
so hot. They threw him to the bullpen. Flexen said,
go figure some stuff out, man, And since then in
his last four outings, two from the pen, one from
the startings a one six four era of four six
one fip. That's not good. The Royals take a chance.
(12:07):
I like it, not putting too much thought into it.
He's going to the Royals. They might flip him flex
and go into flex and dumbass type that Robbie Grossman
probably not getting traded Soroka. I don't know. I don't know.
Braves just for the just for the vibes. Throw them
in the bullpen, don't use him. Copek is interesting because
(12:28):
he has next year two, so probably the only one
that's gonna get you a decent price tag besides Fetti
from the Rays. But the Rays will just give you
guys that, like they know, will pit her out, but
you don't. And I'm gonna put my bias aside here
and not let it affect what I do. But I
(12:50):
am going to trade Copek to the Yankees without considering
a single other option. Great good news, because I tell
you why. The Yankees. Bullen is all coming off the
boards next year. Look at this. You got Tommy Cainley,
he's a free agent next year. Clay Holmes, he's a
free agent next year. Lewise, the guy he's gone, Caleb
(13:11):
Ferguson is gone. So the who they have in the
pen that's still around, Tonkin great, Victor Gonzalez great, and
Lou Trevino's gone. That's all A f Frost is around.
So they need a guy who can do it, and
they'll take Kopek. Let's see Copek baseball savant. They need
(13:35):
a guy that they can get that's cost controlled for
next year. Two and again, I didn't consider another team
because I'm not letting my bias come into play here.
Copeck throws a four seemer and a slider. He's introduced
a cutter this year that didn't throw the years before,
and the four seemer three eighty one slugging, three ninety
one slugging. So yeah, they'll just turn him into a
(13:59):
two seam guy instead of the four seam. That's what
Matt Blake will do and the Yankees will get Copek.
That's great news for me. Great. I'm glad I did
this exercise, good get, good get. It's a lot of
other relievers out there. Tanner Scott can be traded, that
can be traded early. I'm saying because the Marlins already
started this. So luis Robert not traded, that would be
(14:21):
a big one. That would be a big one. I
don't know where we would go. I have to not
do it in this manner. Garrett Crochet, they're gonna trade him.
They got two more years left. Sometimes that seems like
more middle of the season, okay, so oh Eloy Twins,
Red Sox they need a DH. They might not, but
(14:45):
like an early DH. But what are they doing with
Yoshi and all those all those players their lineup. I'm
so unfamiliar with what the Red Sox are up to. Knowingly,
I admit that I'm unfamiliar. It's I looked at their
batting orders, Paige, and I was like, what WHOA? I
gotta familiarize myself with this. Who else needs a DH?
(15:06):
Let's go? Uh. There's a page where you can see
like ops, team ops by position. Who needs a DH?
The Rays do they grab Eloy? They currently have the
worst ops of all dhs. Cardinals, Rockies, Cincinnati, Texas does
Texas grab Eloy, Texas Rangers. Where are you at? Who's
(15:32):
been dhing for you? Wyatt? Langford currently on the ten
day il batting orders Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford,
now Heim when he's not catching. Seeger got a day,
Garcia gets a day. Okay, so they're just rotating days
(15:53):
right now. All Langford's out. Uh, Eloy, you're a Ranger, Bam.
Why not see what you can do? Maybe they maybe
they double trade, maybe not Ranger Rangers. Done. There we go.
I've traded the White Sox. The exercise is complete. All
of this will come true. You will come back to
this episode and say, oh my god, Jimmy nailed it.
(16:18):
Moving on to the next topic. As I was sorting
through some of this stuff, and I was in the
splits for teams offensive pages, trying to find out who
needs what, who's got what. I saw that they have
a split for like bunt hits. And then I looked
at the league bunt hits and I was like, whoa
are bunt singles? Awesome? The Yankees are bunting more So,
(16:39):
then what I did is I scraped all the data
that only goes back to nineteen eighty eight on Baseball
Reference for played appearances where the batter bunted at bats
where he bunted because sack buns don't count, run scored
on buns, hits on buns, doubles on bunts, RBI's on bunds,
batting average, on base percentage, slugging ops, total bases, Grendel play,
(17:01):
sac hits. And obviously with rule changes, no more, no
more a DH in the National League, no more pitches hitting.
And now with shift changes, the bunt is changing in
front of our eyes. You know, it's wildly different now.
And I have some graphs where you know, first I'll
change this and we'll go. We'll just show you like
(17:24):
bunt attempts from nineteen ninety eight on, so you can
see the chart that bunt attempts were already on the decline.
In twenty eleven there was three than two hundred and sixteen,
and then it just started going down, down, down, down,
all the way down, all the way down, all the
(17:44):
way down. And then in twenty nineteen we're at sixteen thousand,
or seventeen thousand if you round up, then twenty twenty hits,
and there's no pitchers hitting in twenty twenty and it's
a shortened season, so we go way down. And then
the last year of pitchers hitting, it's fifteen one hundred
and eighty three. I was saying thousand before bad at numbers.
(18:04):
Fifteen hundred and eighty three, one thousand, five hundred eighty
three bunts in twenty twenty one. Then pitchers stop hitting
and we go down to eleven hundred and twenty twenty two,
and in twenty twenty three eleven hundred again. This year
it's we're only a month in, but two hundred and twenty.
So anyway, you can see that bunt attempts, bunts are
(18:27):
going down right, normal, normal stuff. Now let's look at
batting average, or we'll go on sack bunts. Sack buns
way down, way down. They had a nice peak in
a whatever you know, this is nineteen ninety three, eighteen
(18:48):
hundred sack bunts, and then those were charting down even
while pitchers were still able to hit. Teams were like,
not worth it to give the other team an out.
Tango Tiger told us it's not worth it. And now
we're still down. So I mean, yeah, we're way far down.
Seconds What I thought was funny was if because of
(19:09):
all those sack bunts are gone, batting average on bunt
all time high baby Golden years of the batting average
on the bunt. Last year, batters had a batting average
of five to ten when they laid down a bunt
five twenty three in twenty twenty two. So far this
year five point fifty six. Because no one's doing it
(19:33):
for an out anymore, so that's why it's not like
actually groundbreaking. But also the fielding restrictions might help, because no,
they wouldn't help because those would have baited bunts more,
but they didn't. People didn't care what anyway. What I
found out was, look at this weird blip in two
thousand and two thousand and one where batting average on
bunts was so high it jumps up from four hundred
(19:56):
to five twenty then two thousand and one five twenty five,
right back down. I tried to google like rule changes
in two thousand, all this stuff, and I couldn't figure
out why this happened. The only thing I know is
that in two thousand and two, Tango Tiger released his
like win Expectancy chart, which teams this is like some
team's Bible now where you know that just literally gives
(20:19):
you the situation win expectancy two thousand and two by
Tango Tiger. So it's the bottom of the seventh inning.
Y're down by one run. There's zero outs and no
one on base. Your win expectancy is three fifty three. Oh,
they just walked the first batter. There's a runner on first,
no outs. Your win expectancy has jumped to four thirty one. Congratulations.
(20:41):
Do you want to bunt that guy to second base?
Because if you do and then there's one out, down
by one runner on second base, your win expectancy actually
drops from four thirty one to three ninety nine, much
to your dismay. Oh it's the hey, manager, it's the
(21:07):
top of the ninth inning and you're in a tie
game and there's zero outs and a runner on second base. Okay,
top of the ninth inning, zero outs, tie game, runner
on second Your win expectancy is three two eight. But
(21:30):
if you bunt that guy to third and now you
have a guy one out, if you have one out,
still tie game and a runner on third base, your
win expectancy actually goes down to three twenty one. I'm
tango Tiger never bunt. Basically what happened. This is basically
just dunking on giving away outs, which whatever probably right,
(21:54):
but also there are times when it helps. But maybe
that's why this dropped. I have no idea. I found
this chart interesting. I just thought, oh wow, batting average
on bunts highest it's ever been, maybe ever, because pitchers
aren't just giving away an out all the time. Now
here's an out, Here's an uncompetitive out. What strategy we
(22:19):
are implying, here's an uncompetive aout? Now bunting for a hit? Cool?
I like it played appearances where bunt happened. The Cardinals
are number one with fifteen, then the Padres with thirteen,
then the Guardians with thirteen Nationals, thirteen White Sox thirteen
Mets twelve. Now bunt hits. Guardians have seven, Padres have six.
(22:45):
Batting average on bunt Yankees one dot zero zero zero
with three sacks and five bunt singles. Fuck yeah, way
do you go? Yankees? Same with the Mariners they only
have four though in the Yankees have five, so in
(23:05):
your face. Cardinals have eight sack buns. White Socks have
eight sack bunds. Why why why anyway, I was looking
at this page, third topic, pictures who have changed their stuff.
I was looking at this page and I was trying
to find so expected batting average for pictures, and I
(23:26):
was trying to find pictures where that year to year
change thus far has been significant. So Aaron Bummer has
a three thirty one expected batting average. He had a
two eighteen last year, so he's currently got the change
the worst way I'm gonna go look for the best
we got Luis Ortiz, Hayden was Necki, Kyle muor at
(23:50):
the Montovino. Let's see if there's enough dat on these guys,
because usually it could be like a big pitch mix change.
Maybe batting average isn't the best way to go about this,
because I was finding some way cooler ones before. Yeah,
I'm gonna change it from batting average to X on base,
take walks and just like hits and stuff and find
(24:13):
out who's been the best. Adam Outavino is currently great
year to year change the best in the league. Then
hidden was an Ecki, Then Kyle Muller, Mueller Muller, Shane
Bieber too soon, Joe him and as Let's see if
they changed anything about their pitch mixes. If you look
(24:35):
at here, last year out of na was sinker, sweeper
and the sweeper. Now those were his main two. And
then to to lefties, he probably did something else. But
now the sweeper and the sinker are just dancing. He
upped the sweeper a ton. He found like a nice mix.
If you look at versus righties, he's a righty and
(25:00):
he's always been pretty good against right eyes. And did
I wonder if this mix changed the same and then
he changed it to get out lefties loading? The screen
is loading. Yeah, so this is pretty much the same
on righty's he's mostly sinker and then the sweeper. It's
a little closer. But lefties, was there a big change
then because the sweeper jumped up like crazy? Yep. So
(25:24):
the sweeper is now his primary pitch against lefties, and
last year it was the cutter, which is now his
fourth pitch used against lefties. Now he is throwing just
a ton of different pitches at lefties, and he did
that last year too, supposed to a couple years ago
where he just stayed with that sinker. So I wonder
(25:46):
how that's doing. So the sweeper to lefties is he's
got five hundred slug but not a good batting average.
I think that's small sample size. That's cool. That's a
nice change. So he just changed the way he's attacking lefties,
but continued to attack righty's the same way. Let's check
(26:08):
out what Hayden we was. Necky is doing good Savant
page because he's getting better results and you can see
not much the sweeper and the for seam. It's still
the same pitch mix. Those are his one and two.
I wonder if he's got righty lefty stuff going on
that he changed. Righty's are getting fifty three, getting sweepers
(26:30):
fifty three percent of the time, then four seam, then sinker,
and lefties are getting at all four seam way more
so when he's facing lefties throwing the four seamen. He's
facing right he's throwing the sweeper. That's not that crazy.
There's not crazy either. Let's check the other way. Let's
see some guys that are doing poorly at this aj
(26:52):
Puck Hector, Norris will Smith almost want like starting pitchers. Uh,
Tanner Scott, he's a fun one. He might get tray
so we can James Paxton went to the Dodgers. They
kind of mess with you sometimes. Let's check out Tanner
Scott and the Marlins because he's having a decent year.
So he flipped his script. Four seamers now his primary
(27:13):
pitch and the slider is his secondary. They're still close,
and he the last three seasons he was slider over
four seamers, so that's giving him good results. And I
wonder yep, the righties are seeing four seamers more than sliders,
so that means the left he's got to be seeing
way more for seemers. Yeah, that's easier to three four
seamer more. I feel like that's better for longevity anyway.
(27:34):
So that's the mixed tent. The change Tanner Scott made
James Packson lefty on the Dodgers. Did they do anything
to his mix? Not really. They up the fastball six
from fifty six percent to sixty four, knuckle curve got upped,
cutters down. What's troubling him? Ooh this pitch the cutter?
(27:56):
He doesn't like it, Batters love it. Look at those
numbers four to twenty nine batting average and eight fifty
seven slugging off the cutter. There were some other good
pitch mix changes that I found in my prep work
for this that I can't find right now. What was
I sorting it by? Ex iso Taiwan Walker? Oh yeah,
look at his change. Look at his pitch mix change.
(28:17):
Last year he was split finger thirty three percent of
the time his number one pitch. It's down to his
fourth most used pitch this year. Okay, and his most
used pitch as a cutter, which was his I don't
even know his third or fourth last year. Sinker stays
his second. That's a big that's a big change. And
I wonder if it has to do with the handedness,
(28:40):
because a lot of times pitchers they're pitch mix it's
different for alariety and a lefty, like they're they have
different arsenals basically, and then it's you know, alrighty will
study this and that, And that's why sometimes some hitters
that are really good lefties they like hitting against lefties
because you only have two pitches to choose from, Whereas, like,
if you're a lefty facing already got way more so
versus righty's he's throwing his sinker a ton of the
(29:04):
time and not getting good results as of now. En
split fingers, so righties are just kind of crushing him.
They're not hitting the cutter or the four seamer at
all for taiwe Walker lefties this season. So maybe you
should change that mix up or you just stay with
it if you believe in it. Lefties are getting the
(29:24):
cutter and the four seamer and the split finger and
they so the split is a split finger just getting
fucking crushed this year. This is my last thing I
look up that I'm gonna get out here. I think
tay one Walker's split finger is just getting crushed. I
won't it go? Why won't it load? I want to
see the split finger only tay one Walker split finger
(29:46):
five to fifty five, batting average four thirty nine, expected
batting average eight eighty nine, slugging nine to forty one,
expected slugging ten percent with rate. Ooo, those are not
good numbers. Five fits one single, three doubles. If I
(30:08):
go game by game for this season, I hope that
that's why it's gone from first to third. No, he's
he's upping it? Has he only made two starts? Is
this the trick I'm getting myself into? And nothing matters
what I just said, He's only made two starts. Goodbye,
thank you for watching a guy pour through data, and
(30:29):
sometimes there's a conclusion. Sometimes there's not goodbye.
Hello, and welcome to Jimmy's Three Things. Today we will
be trading away the White Sox. Everything must go. We're
gonna be talking about how we're in the glory days
of the bunt single bunt batting average on the rise,
and I'm gonna look at pitchers who are having drastically
different results and what's causing those results. Very quickly at
(00:21):
the end, it's Jimmy's Three Things, which is a production
of Dan Patrick Production, sham Boy Media and Workhouse Media.
Thank you very much for tuning in. Sip of my coffee,
and then we start all right around thirty minutes on
the clock. Topic number one, Let's trade the White Sox.
It's very early, but you know, the Marlins already made
(00:41):
their move if you think about it, we're a quarter
of the way to the deadline. Teams either, you know,
if you know you're gonna trade, you can go shop around.
Apparently the ooh the Royals were also interested in a rise,
so people are talking this. MLB Deadline News said the
white Socks aren't expected the trade. Right hand pitcher Eric Fetti,
(01:02):
right hand pitcher, Chris Flexen, right hand pitcher Mike Clevenger
right hand pitcher Michael Kopek, dh Elloyd, Jim Andez and
alfielder Tommy fam this summer per Nightingale. So we're gonna
go trade these guys. Okay, this is on a whim.
I didn't put like, you know, much thought. We're gonna
it's gonna happen in live time as we're all talking
(01:23):
about it, and then you guys are gonna leave comments
and let me know what you actually think with more
thought out stuff. So, if you have never been to
Baseball References roster research page, this is what it looks like.
It's a lot of colors and stuff, but this is
the White Sox and you can see all the yellow
free agents in twenty twenty five. Well, that means that
(01:45):
this is their last year on the White Sox. They're
gonna be a free agent at the end, so the
White Sox can trade them and get anything in return. Honestly,
a lot of these guys are just gonna be like
some minor leaguers or just salary relief this year, because
if you trade a guy, you don't have to pay
him the last two months of the season, so it
could be like not a lot of return, but you're
(02:06):
not winning, you're not retaining them, so teams will oftentimes
just cut their losses and give that player a chance
to go be on a winning team. So yeah, you're
not gonna get a lot of return. This everything must
go White Sox sale is kind of like, oh look
at that, honey, and everything must go. Let's go check
it out. And then you walk around You're like, ah,
(02:28):
makes sense, Why this place, why everything wants to go? Oh,
well look at that. That's cheap. Okay, let's grab that.
That's what is going on here. So I copied this
page and pasted it into my own Google sheet so
I could just mess with it a little more. There
you have it, and I pro rated the twenty twenty
four salary to what teams would actually pay if they
(02:49):
picked him up. Now, Andrew Ben and Tendee, he's got
this year and then three more. So he's not part
of the sale, he's not traded. He's just let's just
let's just I don't know how how I would do this.
Let's just key's out. Okay, youon Mancata think he's hurt
right now? Luis Roberts really interesting because not only do
(03:11):
you have this year for cheap, next year for cheap.
You have a club option for twenty million the next
two years. If they if they don't think they're going
to extend him and make him part of the next
wave of White Sox talent, then maybe they think about
trading him, similar to Soda when the Nationals traded him
when he had three years remaining or two and a
(03:32):
half years remaining. But that's pretty big. That's a big move.
It sounds more like an offseason trade to me, when
you have more time to figure it out and all that,
not a mid season trade. Okay, So Eric Freddi, he
is going to get traded. He's owed two point four
million dollars if you pro rate it. And this is
if they get traded at the deadline. So if they
trade him way earlier, then it's not that much money.
(03:55):
I mean, I can change the formula to like, I
don't know, forty percent of the season three million. You're
looking around three million dollars and then you get Eric
Fetti next year for seven and a half million dollars.
I already traded him to the race. They see those
numbers and they're like, yeah, we get him this year
(04:15):
and we get him next year, and it's cheap, and
it's a project that people will be like, how did
we turn him around? And I believe if I believe
Eric Fetti, they even say his name, I think so FEddi.
I believe he just shut down the Rays earlier this year.
So let's see game log. Eight point one innings pitched
(04:37):
against the Rays, only allowed to earned runs. So yeah,
they like what they saw. They're already in talks. That's
gonna happen. The rest of these eloy will probably get traded.
As that tweet said, the red means club option, so
if you trade for him, you will get the option
to grab him, but you have to pay him this
price sixteen and a half million for twenty twenty five,
(04:59):
eighteen and billion for twenty twenty six. But you don't
have to do that. That's your option. So really a
rental John Brebia for this year as a reliever. He's
got a buy out, so if you don't pick up
his six million dollar option, you have to pay him
one point five million as a buyout. Clevenger just made
his debut Tommy fam He's built to get traded. Tim
Hill reliever if you want to try and tap into
(05:21):
that flexen the Rays probably picked him up in a
package deal because he is not making a lot of money.
Soroka not sure what you're gonna get there. Kopek is
really interesting because he's got this year and next year available.
So that's really interesting because I think people will think
he'll go next. What I'm gonna do. We already traded
(05:43):
Eric Fatty to the Rays. That's probably happens next week.
I'm gonna go. I want to look at teams this
page and find teams because I think some of these players,
since more better talent will be available as more teams
get out of it that are on the fringe right
now because they're a little better, But some of these
(06:06):
players might get traded for like the summer push before
the deadline. We saw that happen with Giolito. The Twins
did that with like Jimi Garcia or lance Lynn in
twenty eighteen or something like that, or twenty Lancelyn in
twenty eighteen. I think the trade before the trade obviously,
(06:26):
So what teams right now are on the outs that
are gonna give it a go, Like the Blue Jays
may try to pick someone up and then if it
still doesn't work out, then they have a lot to
offer teams if they want to hit that button. Same
with the Red Sox. They're in it. The Red Sox
are good. I think the Red Sox are gonna trade.
Do they need a dh Your sheet has been dhing?
(06:48):
Do they want eloy? Huh? Okay uh? Kansas City? We
heard they were in on the Royals. We heard they
were in on a rise, So they might be looking
for some of these players, the astros that will probably
pick someone up at some point. I don't think they're
gonna trade, but they could that. They looking for first basemen,
(07:13):
maybe some They're definitely looking for starters, like they could
go get Fetty if they think he's gonna be good,
or flexing just to like bridge the gap. Who over
here is gonna pick up pieces. I don't know if
the giants or seller or buyers diamondbacks they're all in,
but I was looking at their roster and I don't
know where they necessarily need help. I was starting pitching.
I don't think you know, you can pick up Clevenger,
(07:35):
see what he can give you for a little bit.
Cubs and Brewers they're pretty tight. It's a nice race.
They're gonna trade. They're gona they're gonna pick up some people.
The Mets are not going to be buyers. They're they
want to sell. They're made to sell. So in the
American League, all of the East is gonna buy. But
(07:57):
but it's those teams that are like not guaranteed a
playoff spot. Right now, if you go to the this
page which has the odds of making the playoffs, like
postseason odds is right here, and let's see we get
down into them. Twins are seventy seven percent. They need
(08:19):
some bats. Would they take Eloy? They've seen him? Sometimes
you trade with Indivision because they've seen what he can do,
and or you've seen him too much and you're like, nah,
would they take him? Let's do twins optional slash. I'll
do a slash here. Clevenger Man Cleveringer to the Astros
(08:43):
just sounds fun. Oh but he's talked a lot of
shit about them and like had playoff series where he
didn't like them. I don't think that matters. Strowman, the
Yankees talking a lot shit, Okay, bowing out fam Back
to the Diamondbacks. How's Jock doing? Joe Computerson, He's dhing
(09:08):
I he's doing really well. Does Jack hit against So
Jock's not hitting against the lefties. Who DH is against lefties?
Alexander Blaize, Blaze Alexander. How did they use FAM last
year and Fam just played against everyone? Can you have
(09:31):
too many dhs? Let's just throw Fam back to the
Diamondbacks because everyone likes that storyline. He can platoon because
Tommy Fams a switch hitter. Correct correct, Jimmy, are you correct?
Or his splits? OHI bat's right? Uh, he's got reverse
splits or the Mets tried to only use them against
one side. They tried to platoon him and then he
(09:53):
was like, no, I want to hit both sides. That
was the story with fam My bad Uh, okay, So
him and Jock are the dhs and Aaron and then
the pinch hitters for other people see reverse splits. Last
year had a much better batting at or was that
this year much better against right handed pitching, which might
not work well for the whole platooning with Jock situation,
(10:15):
But last year his splits were dead even so he'll
get there. He just needs the bats. I love it.
I'm all in. Tommy FAM's going back to Arizona and
he's gonna down the stretch, Him and Jock are gonna
be the rotating platooning DH guys and then they pinch
hit for whoever in the lineup when that needs to happen.
(10:37):
So Diamondbacks for fam awesome fun times. Chris Flexen, who
needs pitching help for that cheap? Let's send him to
the Central Royals? Do they need pitching help? Twins pitchers
have actually been pretty good of late. I believe, did
you guys see Simon Woods Richardson's start pretty good? Uh?
(11:03):
Royals because the Royals were in on a rise. They
want one of these early guys. Just pick them up,
see what can happen, Maybe flip them. Uh all right,
maybe he goes to the Royals, you know the Royals roster,
because's just a true rental. You can also throw him
to the pen if you think he's gonna go there.
Has Flexing been pitching? Well? Is that something I need
(11:25):
to look at? Chris Flexen? What a name? Dude? Do
do do? Do? Do? Uh? Yeah? I mean he's got
no innings accumulated. Oh, he's coming out of the pan
a couple times. One bad outing here we give up
six earned runs. Other than that, the start didn't start
that hot. Okay, so he started three games, wasn't going
(11:45):
so hot. They threw him to the bullpen. Flexen said,
go figure some stuff out, man, And since then in
his last four outings, two from the pen, one from
the startings a one six four era of four six
one fip. That's not good. The Royals take a chance.
(12:07):
I like it, not putting too much thought into it.
He's going to the Royals. They might flip him flex
and go into flex and dumbass type that Robbie Grossman
probably not getting traded Soroka. I don't know. I don't know.
Braves just for the just for the vibes. Throw them
in the bullpen, don't use him. Copek is interesting because
(12:28):
he has next year two, so probably the only one
that's gonna get you a decent price tag besides Fetti
from the Rays. But the Rays will just give you
guys that, like they know, will pit her out, but
you don't. And I'm gonna put my bias aside here
and not let it affect what I do. But I
(12:50):
am going to trade Copek to the Yankees without considering
a single other option. Great good news, because I tell
you why. The Yankees. Bullen is all coming off the
boards next year. Look at this. You got Tommy Cainley,
he's a free agent next year. Clay Holmes, he's a
free agent next year. Lewise, the guy he's gone, Caleb
(13:11):
Ferguson is gone. So the who they have in the
pen that's still around, Tonkin great, Victor Gonzalez great, and
Lou Trevino's gone. That's all A f Frost is around.
So they need a guy who can do it, and
they'll take Kopek. Let's see Copek baseball savant. They need
(13:35):
a guy that they can get that's cost controlled for
next year. Two and again, I didn't consider another team
because I'm not letting my bias come into play here.
Copeck throws a four seemer and a slider. He's introduced
a cutter this year that didn't throw the years before,
and the four seemer three eighty one slugging, three ninety
one slugging. So yeah, they'll just turn him into a
(13:59):
two seam guy instead of the four seam. That's what
Matt Blake will do and the Yankees will get Copek.
That's great news for me. Great. I'm glad I did
this exercise, good get, good get. It's a lot of
other relievers out there. Tanner Scott can be traded, that
can be traded early. I'm saying because the Marlins already
started this. So luis Robert not traded, that would be
(14:21):
a big one. That would be a big one. I
don't know where we would go. I have to not
do it in this manner. Garrett Crochet, they're gonna trade him.
They got two more years left. Sometimes that seems like
more middle of the season, okay, so oh Eloy Twins,
Red Sox they need a DH. They might not, but
(14:45):
like an early DH. But what are they doing with
Yoshi and all those all those players their lineup. I'm
so unfamiliar with what the Red Sox are up to. Knowingly,
I admit that I'm unfamiliar. It's I looked at their
batting orders, Paige, and I was like, what WHOA? I
gotta familiarize myself with this. Who else needs a DH?
(15:06):
Let's go? Uh. There's a page where you can see
like ops, team ops by position. Who needs a DH?
The Rays do they grab Eloy? They currently have the
worst ops of all dhs. Cardinals, Rockies, Cincinnati, Texas does
Texas grab Eloy, Texas Rangers. Where are you at? Who's
(15:32):
been dhing for you? Wyatt? Langford currently on the ten
day il batting orders Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford, Langford,
now Heim when he's not catching. Seeger got a day,
Garcia gets a day. Okay, so they're just rotating days
(15:53):
right now. All Langford's out. Uh, Eloy, you're a Ranger, Bam.
Why not see what you can do? Maybe they maybe
they double trade, maybe not Ranger Rangers. Done. There we go.
I've traded the White Sox. The exercise is complete. All
of this will come true. You will come back to
this episode and say, oh my god, Jimmy nailed it.
(16:18):
Moving on to the next topic. As I was sorting
through some of this stuff, and I was in the
splits for teams offensive pages, trying to find out who
needs what, who's got what. I saw that they have
a split for like bunt hits. And then I looked
at the league bunt hits and I was like, whoa
are bunt singles? Awesome? The Yankees are bunting more So,
(16:39):
then what I did is I scraped all the data
that only goes back to nineteen eighty eight on Baseball
Reference for played appearances where the batter bunted at bats
where he bunted because sack buns don't count, run scored
on buns, hits on buns, doubles on bunts, RBI's on bunds,
batting average, on base percentage, slugging ops, total bases, Grendel play,
(17:01):
sac hits. And obviously with rule changes, no more, no
more a DH in the National League, no more pitches hitting.
And now with shift changes, the bunt is changing in
front of our eyes. You know, it's wildly different now.
And I have some graphs where you know, first I'll
change this and we'll go. We'll just show you like
(17:24):
bunt attempts from nineteen ninety eight on, so you can
see the chart that bunt attempts were already on the decline.
In twenty eleven there was three than two hundred and sixteen,
and then it just started going down, down, down, down,
all the way down, all the way down, all the
(17:44):
way down. And then in twenty nineteen we're at sixteen thousand,
or seventeen thousand if you round up, then twenty twenty hits,
and there's no pitchers hitting in twenty twenty and it's
a shortened season, so we go way down. And then
the last year of pitchers hitting, it's fifteen one hundred
and eighty three. I was saying thousand before bad at numbers.
(18:04):
Fifteen hundred and eighty three, one thousand, five hundred eighty
three bunts in twenty twenty one. Then pitchers stop hitting
and we go down to eleven hundred and twenty twenty two,
and in twenty twenty three eleven hundred again. This year
it's we're only a month in, but two hundred and twenty.
So anyway, you can see that bunt attempts, bunts are
(18:27):
going down right, normal, normal stuff. Now let's look at
batting average, or we'll go on sack bunts. Sack buns
way down, way down. They had a nice peak in
a whatever you know, this is nineteen ninety three, eighteen
(18:48):
hundred sack bunts, and then those were charting down even
while pitchers were still able to hit. Teams were like,
not worth it to give the other team an out.
Tango Tiger told us it's not worth it. And now
we're still down. So I mean, yeah, we're way far down.
Seconds What I thought was funny was if because of
(19:09):
all those sack bunts are gone, batting average on bunt
all time high baby Golden years of the batting average
on the bunt. Last year, batters had a batting average
of five to ten when they laid down a bunt
five twenty three in twenty twenty two. So far this
year five point fifty six. Because no one's doing it
(19:33):
for an out anymore, so that's why it's not like
actually groundbreaking. But also the fielding restrictions might help, because no,
they wouldn't help because those would have baited bunts more,
but they didn't. People didn't care what anyway. What I
found out was, look at this weird blip in two
thousand and two thousand and one where batting average on
bunts was so high it jumps up from four hundred
(19:56):
to five twenty then two thousand and one five twenty five,
right back down. I tried to google like rule changes
in two thousand, all this stuff, and I couldn't figure
out why this happened. The only thing I know is
that in two thousand and two, Tango Tiger released his
like win Expectancy chart, which teams this is like some
team's Bible now where you know that just literally gives
(20:19):
you the situation win expectancy two thousand and two by
Tango Tiger. So it's the bottom of the seventh inning.
Y're down by one run. There's zero outs and no
one on base. Your win expectancy is three fifty three. Oh,
they just walked the first batter. There's a runner on first,
no outs. Your win expectancy has jumped to four thirty one. Congratulations.
(20:41):
Do you want to bunt that guy to second base?
Because if you do and then there's one out, down
by one runner on second base, your win expectancy actually
drops from four thirty one to three ninety nine, much
to your dismay. Oh it's the hey, manager, it's the
(21:07):
top of the ninth inning and you're in a tie
game and there's zero outs and a runner on second base. Okay,
top of the ninth inning, zero outs, tie game, runner
on second Your win expectancy is three two eight. But
(21:30):
if you bunt that guy to third and now you
have a guy one out, if you have one out,
still tie game and a runner on third base, your
win expectancy actually goes down to three twenty one. I'm
tango Tiger never bunt. Basically what happened. This is basically
just dunking on giving away outs, which whatever probably right,
(21:54):
but also there are times when it helps. But maybe
that's why this dropped. I have no idea. I found
this chart interesting. I just thought, oh wow, batting average
on bunts highest it's ever been, maybe ever, because pitchers
aren't just giving away an out all the time. Now
here's an out, Here's an uncompetitive out. What strategy we
(22:19):
are implying, here's an uncompetive aout? Now bunting for a hit? Cool?
I like it played appearances where bunt happened. The Cardinals
are number one with fifteen, then the Padres with thirteen,
then the Guardians with thirteen Nationals, thirteen White Sox thirteen
Mets twelve. Now bunt hits. Guardians have seven, Padres have six.
(22:45):
Batting average on bunt Yankees one dot zero zero zero
with three sacks and five bunt singles. Fuck yeah, way
do you go? Yankees? Same with the Mariners they only
have four though in the Yankees have five, so in
(23:05):
your face. Cardinals have eight sack buns. White Socks have
eight sack bunds. Why why why anyway, I was looking
at this page, third topic, pictures who have changed their stuff.
I was looking at this page and I was trying
to find so expected batting average for pictures, and I
(23:26):
was trying to find pictures where that year to year
change thus far has been significant. So Aaron Bummer has
a three thirty one expected batting average. He had a
two eighteen last year, so he's currently got the change
the worst way I'm gonna go look for the best
we got Luis Ortiz, Hayden was Necki, Kyle muor at
(23:50):
the Montovino. Let's see if there's enough dat on these guys,
because usually it could be like a big pitch mix change.
Maybe batting average isn't the best way to go about this,
because I was finding some way cooler ones before. Yeah,
I'm gonna change it from batting average to X on base,
take walks and just like hits and stuff and find
(24:13):
out who's been the best. Adam Outavino is currently great
year to year change the best in the league. Then
hidden was an Ecki, Then Kyle Muller, Mueller Muller, Shane
Bieber too soon, Joe him and as Let's see if
they changed anything about their pitch mixes. If you look
(24:35):
at here, last year out of na was sinker, sweeper
and the sweeper. Now those were his main two. And
then to to lefties, he probably did something else. But
now the sweeper and the sinker are just dancing. He
upped the sweeper a ton. He found like a nice mix.
If you look at versus righties, he's a righty and
(25:00):
he's always been pretty good against right eyes. And did
I wonder if this mix changed the same and then
he changed it to get out lefties loading? The screen
is loading. Yeah, so this is pretty much the same
on righty's he's mostly sinker and then the sweeper. It's
a little closer. But lefties, was there a big change
then because the sweeper jumped up like crazy? Yep. So
(25:24):
the sweeper is now his primary pitch against lefties, and
last year it was the cutter, which is now his
fourth pitch used against lefties. Now he is throwing just
a ton of different pitches at lefties, and he did
that last year too, supposed to a couple years ago
where he just stayed with that sinker. So I wonder
(25:46):
how that's doing. So the sweeper to lefties is he's
got five hundred slug but not a good batting average.
I think that's small sample size. That's cool. That's a
nice change. So he just changed the way he's attacking lefties,
but continued to attack righty's the same way. Let's check
(26:08):
out what Hayden we was. Necky is doing good Savant
page because he's getting better results and you can see
not much the sweeper and the for seam. It's still
the same pitch mix. Those are his one and two.
I wonder if he's got righty lefty stuff going on
that he changed. Righty's are getting fifty three, getting sweepers
(26:30):
fifty three percent of the time, then four seam, then sinker,
and lefties are getting at all four seam way more
so when he's facing lefties throwing the four seamen. He's
facing right he's throwing the sweeper. That's not that crazy.
There's not crazy either. Let's check the other way. Let's
see some guys that are doing poorly at this aj
(26:52):
Puck Hector, Norris will Smith almost want like starting pitchers. Uh,
Tanner Scott, he's a fun one. He might get tray
so we can James Paxton went to the Dodgers. They
kind of mess with you sometimes. Let's check out Tanner
Scott and the Marlins because he's having a decent year.
So he flipped his script. Four seamers now his primary
(27:13):
pitch and the slider is his secondary. They're still close,
and he the last three seasons he was slider over
four seamers, so that's giving him good results. And I
wonder yep, the righties are seeing four seamers more than sliders,
so that means the left he's got to be seeing
way more for seemers. Yeah, that's easier to three four
seamer more. I feel like that's better for longevity anyway.
(27:34):
So that's the mixed tent. The change Tanner Scott made
James Packson lefty on the Dodgers. Did they do anything
to his mix? Not really. They up the fastball six
from fifty six percent to sixty four, knuckle curve got upped,
cutters down. What's troubling him? Ooh this pitch the cutter?
(27:56):
He doesn't like it, Batters love it. Look at those
numbers four to twenty nine batting average and eight fifty
seven slugging off the cutter. There were some other good
pitch mix changes that I found in my prep work
for this that I can't find right now. What was
I sorting it by? Ex iso Taiwan Walker? Oh yeah,
look at his change. Look at his pitch mix change.
(28:17):
Last year he was split finger thirty three percent of
the time his number one pitch. It's down to his
fourth most used pitch this year. Okay, and his most
used pitch as a cutter, which was his I don't
even know his third or fourth last year. Sinker stays
his second. That's a big that's a big change. And
I wonder if it has to do with the handedness,
(28:40):
because a lot of times pitchers they're pitch mix it's
different for alariety and a lefty, like they're they have
different arsenals basically, and then it's you know, alrighty will
study this and that, And that's why sometimes some hitters
that are really good lefties they like hitting against lefties
because you only have two pitches to choose from, Whereas, like,
if you're a lefty facing already got way more so
versus righty's he's throwing his sinker a ton of the
(29:04):
time and not getting good results as of now. En
split fingers, so righties are just kind of crushing him.
They're not hitting the cutter or the four seamer at
all for taiwe Walker lefties this season. So maybe you
should change that mix up or you just stay with
it if you believe in it. Lefties are getting the
(29:24):
cutter and the four seamer and the split finger and
they so the split is a split finger just getting
fucking crushed this year. This is my last thing I
look up that I'm gonna get out here. I think
tay one Walker's split finger is just getting crushed. I
won't it go? Why won't it load? I want to
see the split finger only tay one Walker split finger
(29:46):
five to fifty five, batting average four thirty nine, expected
batting average eight eighty nine, slugging nine to forty one,
expected slugging ten percent with rate. Ooo, those are not
good numbers. Five fits one single, three doubles. If I
(30:08):
go game by game for this season, I hope that
that's why it's gone from first to third. No, he's
he's upping it? Has he only made two starts? Is
this the trick I'm getting myself into? And nothing matters
what I just said, He's only made two starts. Goodbye,
thank you for watching a guy pour through data, and
(30:29):
sometimes there's a conclusion. Sometimes there's not goodbye.
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.