January 31, 2023 • 18 mins
Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon recap The Farmers Insurance Open as Max Homa's win secures an outright winner for the podcast! The guys discuss the importance of a player's win equity when betting on outright winners. The guys also take an early look at this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots's premier golf betting podcasts. Here's Matt Brown,
West Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin. Hello and welcome to a
Monday edition of long Shots. Matt Brown and Kelly Biddlin.
Here gonna recap real quick what happened this past weekend.
Spoiler alert, it was great what went on over there
(00:23):
in the Farmers Insurance Open. Take a quick look at
the odds board as we head into the A T
and T see if there's anything we want to bring
forward with us as we look into some of these
other tournaments that are coming up as well. Kelly Bidland, Uh,
you and I met our debut here on long Shots
last week. Open things up with an outright winter Max
Homa thirteen under for the Farmers Insurance Open wins by
(00:43):
two strokes over Keegan Bradley, who we also had so
h feeling feeling pretty good here to to kick things off.
Keegan two strokes behind at eleven Morikawa with outright third
in that one one point five six million for Homa,
ninety eight thousand per Kegan and then six hundred for
(01:04):
Morrikala for our one and done players out there by
the way, with our full full podcast. We're gonna be
doing on Tuesday's Kelly. We are going to give someone
and done thoughts at the end as well, So uh,
stick around for that. If you are in any of
these big one and done tournaments, yeah, good, Absolutely we'll
start working those in. We we gotta get our own going.
We we we failed to set that up, but yeah, me,
(01:25):
you and West gotta get one going, that's for sure
because that will that will add some added intrigue into
those Tuesday ones. But yeah, uma, if you will, Yeah, exactly.
So what are we up to? Six wins for Max
Home on Tour now, Matt, I think the I think
the big thing to bring up here about that tournament is,
uh is home in something you bring up often often
(01:47):
when talking about golf, handing, capping in the win equity
part of it, and this guy has it at this point.
I mean, it's it's when you can look down on the
the odds board and we talk about betting outrights, that's
a major factor. How many how often can these guys
true we go out there and win, um and I
think Sunday you know, really encompassing or Saturday, say said,
Saturday really encombagsed that more than you know, more than
(02:08):
what you normally see in the tournament. Right, you saw
him pull away from a pack of good players, really
good players, world class players and catch that guy who
you know, maybe didn't belong in that group, who then
ended up falling back. Right. But I think that takes
some mental fortitude along with a great game to be
able to pull that off. So another great win by Maxima.
(02:29):
I believe you and west Right both that outrights on
him with this. What this makes for uh, for me,
Matt is a milestone tournament. It is the first tournament
now where I just bet a finishing position bet on
a guy that went on to win it outright. I
was wondering when that day would come, and this the
day has arrived, Max Homa, you are the guy. So yeah,
(02:50):
I'm a little upset with myself. I didn't end up
betting that out right on him. But but a wenzo
wenzo wins a win right exactly and typically captain you, sir,
because it doesn't take much talking me into Kegan Bradley
a bet. But as soon as you started talking about him,
I I've grabbed a top five. I was like, good
enough for me. If Matt likes him, I've always liked him,
so I'll grab that at twelve to one. So that
(03:10):
was a big cash for me, uh this weekend, And
like you said, a great a great start for us
here on the long shots. Yeah, it was. It was
good stuff here and and I'm glad you brought up
that win equity point because I do want to drive
that home here and something you're gonna hear us talk
about certainly throughout the course of the golf season here
on the Big Pod, and what we want our guys
(03:31):
that can close. We all what we want our guys
that possess whatever that is that is able to go
ahead and get these bets home. And listen, you know,
I took a shot on a guy that that Kelly
and I have bet many of times in Brennan Steele.
And you know I did a top ten on Brendon
Steele because my numbers played out. Brendon Steele finds himself
(03:53):
after two rounds right at the top of the leaderboard,
comes back and goes seventy seventy five on the weekend.
Because that's just kind of what Brennan Steele does. The
win equity for him, it's just almost non existent and
that's why when we take some of these guys, and Kelly,
this is a point that I think you and I
will really try to drive home. There are gonna be
some guys that we really just never bet outrights on.
(04:16):
But you're gonna see us bet these top twenties on
these guys all the time, or top thirties or top forties.
You're gonna like, guys, why do you always bet these
guys top forty or off top thirty or top twenty,
And you don't ever bet these guys outright, And it's
because they don't win, and they have no win equity whatsoever.
They are good enough to hang around, they're good enough.
They're professional lurkers, Kelly, that's what we call them. They're
(04:36):
professional lurkers. But they just don't win these tournaments. And
and you know, look, they're good to keep your bank
roll healthy, but they are very bad to drain your
bank roll if you continually bet them without rights. Yeah, totally.
I mean, and you know examples of this, right, if
you're asking, it's you know, it's how we talked about
Tony Final a year and a half, right, right, or
a year ago, even a year ago, but a year
(04:57):
year and a half ago. That's how we talked about
Tony Finale. Um, you know, in the second place for
Keithan Bradley, I think it's a guy you could make
that case right like Keith Keys can go you know,
real low or real high depending on the day. UM.
I don't know about you, guy, but I got a
little nervous when he had to start putting the uh
putting the pedal to the floor there on those uh,
(05:17):
those last couple of holes where I'm like, oh, boy,
Kicks is gonna be going for it here. He might
play himself right out of this top five. Um. A
couple other guys that I don't know what what all
stood out to you at the tournament, but another top
twenty bet that I got home that man, this guy
is I mean, you don't want to sound the alarms
with someone to keep an eye on here to chasing
date is continuing to play well now, Um you know
(05:39):
te seven finishes eight under. I don't really know if
I was in the camp of believing we were going
to see a big resurgence from this guy. Uh, I
don't know, maybe ever again, but he's been looking good
here in the past couple of months. So I played
him in one and done this week, so that was
my and the big and the big one and done tournaments.
I played him because Here's there are a couple different reasons. One,
(06:00):
you know, lots of track record at that course. Uh. Secondly,
injury history with Jason Day of recent I wanted to
get in while he's healthy. I wanted to get in
before he had time to maybe you know, let some
of these back injuries that have been lingering, you know,
creep back in yep. So I just wanted to get
at him early. I ended up playing him in one
and done. It was, you know, good for two two
(06:22):
thousand for him. Another guy that was good for two
two thousand is John rom who shoots around one seventy three,
comes back to go sixty seven, sixty six, but then
shoot seventy four there in round four and and Kelly,
listen for me and for you, I think for golf
bettors everywhere, hallelujah that he is that he can shoot
seventy four still on Sunday. Because had he gone out
(06:45):
and shot another sixty six or something like that on Sunday,
golf betting was gonna be ruined for us. I mean,
like It's just it was it was gonna be horrible,
and so you know the fact that John Ram isn't
gonna go out and even if he finds himself, you know,
in that top three, he's not just a shoe end
to win the tournament, at least for us right now.
It was a It was a blessing in disguise, certainly
(07:07):
for me, because I mean we were about to get
into a point we couldn't even play out rights anymore.
We're basically just gotta be the only body in placement markets.
I mean I only bet one outright last week because
I I already felt we were starting to see that.
I thought that that range, you know, when Homer was
right in that range of kind of guys on the
odds board that I didn't really think had been adjusted for.
(07:27):
It felt like they had cut John Rom's odds almost
in half essentially, right, and then didn't adjust anybody you know,
passed him to about until about thirty to one. So
I mean, that was really why I stayed. It was
stayed away mainly from the outright. So you're right, we
dodged a bullet there. I ended up getting in on
him live on that What was it Thursday when he
was making a strong push, Um ended up getting in
(07:50):
on him live on that on that in that round.
But like I do that, I completely agree with what
you just said. I'm happy to throw away a few
bucks on that live bed if you know, if that
doesn't mean John rom isn't gonna go full Tiger Woods
on us and kind of ruined Gulf outright bedding. Yeah,
I you know, Listen, we had home up, we had Bradley.
If you kind of go down the board a little
(08:12):
bit further, there were some other guys that Listen made
the cut. I mean that that we're never really in contention.
I had a three one on Bramlet. He finished his
t thirteen, so we're at least one of the things
I like to do. We talked about the Brennan Steel
collapse and all that, but he did make the cut
and was around. Jonathan Vegas again made the cut and
was around. So we had these tickets on these guys
(08:34):
that are there, and that's kind of one of the
ways that I go back when the tournaments are over.
And even if the guys weren't in contention, Listen was
I was I on guys that made the cut. We're
on guys that, like, you know, we're at least around
and all that. At least lets us know that maybe
the process was right and was there and we were
kind of sniffing in the right direction. We'll say this
(08:55):
a million times also on this podcast, we move forward.
Only what guy can win a golf tournament, So like
hitting these outrights, there's a hundred and fifty guys gonna
be teeing it up. Only one guy can win a
golf tournament. So we're as long as you're getting guys
to make the cut, they can find themselves around. That's
kind of what we're looking for here, Kelly. So I
think we did pretty good in this pirse go at it.
One of the guys I think too to keep an
(09:16):
eye on. I mean, listen supposedly has the new Swings,
has whatever. Ricky Fowler T eleven right there, he's around.
You've got you know, fenwe did have the bad round
in there on Sunday at the seventy three, but you know,
he's still a top ten guys whatever. So I think
these guys that even that was it was just a
(09:37):
bad punning day, really, right, I mean, it was like
an atrocious punting day. Um. But yeah, I mean I
think fine. I mean, he showed he can bounce back
from that a little bit, so I'm not really too
worried about him at all. Um. And the yeah, man,
I mean Ricky Fowler, that's that's dan impressive and great
to see. I think if you're I mean, jeez, if
you're the PGA Tour, you gotta be thrilled Ricky h
(10:00):
Ricky playing better. I mean, he's one of the biggest
draws you get a tournament period. Um, So yeah, I
think that's great. With all the stuff going on with
Live right now, hit Deckie playing well, finished inside the
top ten. He's a guy. Man. I just I feel
like I can never bet because you never know what's
coming with him. Um, I think you know, Fowler's next
big step here is okay. Cool. He's shown some flashes.
(10:20):
You just gotta put together some more consistency. It felt
like he was just watching him in that final round.
It's like he'd go one good hole, one bad hole,
one good hole, one bad hole. Um. You know, and
even sometimes, I mean, she's a scorecard even says that
it's Birdie Birdie, you know, par bogey Birdie Bogie Burdie.
It's like it was just kind of all over the place.
Was super colorful for him, for sure. One other guy
(10:41):
I want to talk about and then we'll move on
to the A T and T here is just uh,
you know Will's alataurus goes sixty eight then seventy seven
to miss the cut. You I just I just have
to wonder. To listen, we'll hear what he has to
say as we head into you know, the next tournament
that he plays. We'll hear what you know comes out
all these golf beat writers that get to talk to
(11:01):
these guys. But I do wonder if there was any
sort of injury thing that when all you know, we thought,
we know that he was coming back off injury. We
know that that is at least out there. Did he
did he stiffing up? Did he whatever? You know? I
don't know. But again, it goes sixty seventy seven to
miss the cut. And I think for me with old
Willie z Kelly, no matter what my model tells me,
(11:24):
I think I'm gonna need to see it on the
course first before I come back in on him with
an outright unless unless these numbers just drift to a
point where it's just just egregious. Yes, I agree, I
was wondering where you were going to go there. I
don't think he's gonna be taken off my betting board completely,
but I I I'm right there as far as an
(11:44):
outright perspective, man, I'm right there with you on him
right now and calling more a cow, you know what
I mean. Yeah, And that might be recency by some
little bit because I just got burned on him a
couple of weeks ago, But well, look, man, I think
that's I was impressed he was able to bounce back
and play as well as he did this tournament. But
after what Rome did to him in that tournament, I
(12:06):
I'm a little worried about his just mental for to
do it. About closing, right, I mean, how we just
started this podcast talking about Homer and closing. I need
to see that from mora cow, I think, before I'm
on him in an outright bed again. So we move
on to Pebble Beach. We've got the A T and
T here. This is a pro am. It's a three
course rotation, full on going and gotta go ahead and
(12:27):
tell you guys right now, not gonna be a not
gonna be an extensive card for me. I hate this tournament.
I hate the three different course rotation. The only course
that we have shot linked data on obviously is just
the peb Pebble Beach Course, and so I it's just,
you know, we don't have the shot linked data for
the other stuff. It's it goes back into that weird
thing again, Kelly, where it's like, you know, are these
(12:49):
guys okay with playing these six hour rounds and dealing
with the three you know, the whole cut instead of
the way. So it's just lots of stuff for me.
But top of the odds board, it's gonna be a
little thin, guys, because a lot of the players are
overseas right now playing over in Abu Dhabi. So it's
Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan's Spee, Victor Hoblan are really your big
(13:10):
three names here eleven, eleven and twelve over at DraftKings
right now, and then it is all the way to
twenty at MAV McNeely, Tom Hogi at twenty two, Shamus
Power at twenty two. Just to kind of let you
know the gigantic fall off when it comes to star
power at this thing, Kelly, like I said, I'm not
gonna have a ton of of action in this thing.
(13:32):
If for me, I'm never gonna stay near the top
of the board for this either. With the three course rotation,
I think a lot of wacky things can happen. I'm
probably gonna have three or four outrights, It's probably gonna
be in the mid range, and we'll just kind of
we'll regroup here in a couple of weeks at waste
management whenever we get the elevated prize pool and everybody's
gonna be there. Yeah the uh yeah, no, completely agree
(13:53):
with you. This is always one trying to trend lightly on.
But um, you know, just looking at dis Odds board
and who and who's taking place, I don't want to
say I'm surprised to hear you say that, But the problem,
the problem is with this odds board in the way
these outright numbers are shaping up. Man It Fitzpatrick, speed
Hoglan almost any of the three of them. Still think
I still think I'd rather bet those guys that those
(14:15):
kind of numbers than a you know, McNeely, shame his power,
you know, at at not even double or double the
odds um It feels like there should be a bigger
separation there, So I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised
if I land on maybe one of those shorter shot
guys and then sprinkling some longer long shots. Uh, the
one guy, The one guy. I am disappointed because I
(14:37):
think you and I were both on him a couple
of weeks Gogoes injured Putnam, Um, he was another guy
I was kind of looking to, looking to play off
of them. Maybe I'll still end up on him again.
Me and You'll be running all our bottles and everything
would be getting back in that tomorrow the show. But
just seeing him at twenty eight to one hurts a
little bit because I was hoping to get him in
a little bit at a longer number than that. As
you guys start your research tonight and and tomorrow, and
(14:58):
just remember this is this is nothing it last week.
It is shorter courses should be easier setups because of
the pro am that we've got going on as well.
So the conditions and what type of player can be
successful here is much much different than what we got
last week. So that is not something that we are
going to be really taking into consideration at all. I mean,
we look at past winners here, Shorter guys, kind of
(15:20):
guys that that aren't known, you know, Daniel Berger, Jordan's Speed.
We've got those type of guys, uh, that have had
success here. And you know, it's also doesn't have to
be a who's who. Really We've had Brent Senedecker win,
Jimmy Walker win, We've had Ted Potter win. Yeah. I mean,
we've had Hoagi win at sixty six last year. So
(15:41):
I don't always have to be one of the favorites
to win this thing either, So just kind of keep
that in mind. Scores are gonna be pretty low, gonna
be in that seventeen eighteen, nineteen twenties range as far
as who's going to win this deal. So I'm gonna
have to play well. I'm gonna have to play well
for all four rounds if you want to get it
done at this deal. Again, it's Monterey, Spike last, and
Pebble Beach only Pebble Do we have shot linked data
(16:03):
on As you go back and start to do your research, Kelly,
I know that we will. We will get west On
here tomorrow. You and I will run through the models,
see what we've got going on, and see if there's
anything that we have. Um, you know that we want
to get in the account fairly early here. But fellas
if you want to look again the the top of
the odds board, I don't think we're gonna get a
ton of movement here. I don't think this tournament is
(16:24):
going to draw a ton of early action. I don't
you know, again, without all the star power, I just
think everyone's gonna see eleven on Matt Fitzpatrick, or eleven
on speech or twelve on Hobling. I can't imagine people
are gonna be piling in the money on those guys.
So I don't think you got to act fast, But
I guess I could be wrong. Kelly, Yeah, yeah, I
I would agree, But yeah, you know, you know, you
(16:44):
never know that is true with some of these some
of these guys and some of these tournaments, right, I mean,
like this one is a little bit funkier. Um, you know,
if someone's just looking at tournament history, obviously Jordan's speed
has done really well here. Second place last year, TE three,
the year before T nine, the year before that. Um,
so you know, pretty consistent results from that guy. He
just real quickly we'll getting all this stuff tomorrow. But
(17:06):
if you are doing, you know, some of your own
course handicap at home, just remember, you know, as Matt
mentioned a bit, this is a shorter course. Uh, you
know when we're talking about the Pebble Beach or at
least whe'll p where'll play the final two rounds shorter
shorter course. Of course, you've got small greens, um that
you know, this is kind of the first time we're
gonna see smaller greens here, uh this season. Um. And
(17:27):
then you've got wider fairways too, so it's a it's
a little bit different course to handicap. Um. You know.
I kind of I wish I wish Matt they would
just play four rounds at Pebble Beach and we can
actually get a get rid of this program. You know,
it's a beautiful place to watch. I love watching it
on TV. I just hate the tournament set up, you
know what I mean. I hate the program part and
I hate the three course rotation. Yeah. No, I'm rough
(17:49):
is gonna be short all that different thing Like there's
gonna be scoring here, guys, So I don't don't overthink it.
It's going to be it's gonna be playing fairly simple,
so that kind of keeps it shortest course on Yeah,
in your in your handicap here, a guy's always head
of Revisa dot com. West does an incredible right up
of the course and the course preview and things like that,
so be sure and go in and read that before
(18:12):
you start all of your research as well. West's in
a ton of work to kind of get you prepped
for what you need to look at. As we head
in today a T and T pro am, and again
this is uh gonna be a shorter card for I
think most of us most likely as we head into
the first really really big tournament here of three which
we're gonna get that elevated prize pool there at the
(18:34):
Waste Management heading into the Super Bowl as well down
there in Scottsdale. For Kelly, I'm Att. Tune into the
full episode along Shost tomorrow
This is long Shots's premier golf betting podcasts. Here's Matt Brown,
West Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin. Hello and welcome to a
Monday edition of long Shots. Matt Brown and Kelly Biddlin.
Here gonna recap real quick what happened this past weekend.
Spoiler alert, it was great what went on over there
(00:23):
in the Farmers Insurance Open. Take a quick look at
the odds board as we head into the A T
and T see if there's anything we want to bring
forward with us as we look into some of these
other tournaments that are coming up as well. Kelly Bidland, Uh,
you and I met our debut here on long Shots
last week. Open things up with an outright winter Max
Homa thirteen under for the Farmers Insurance Open wins by
(00:43):
two strokes over Keegan Bradley, who we also had so
h feeling feeling pretty good here to to kick things off.
Keegan two strokes behind at eleven Morikawa with outright third
in that one one point five six million for Homa,
ninety eight thousand per Kegan and then six hundred for
(01:04):
Morrikala for our one and done players out there by
the way, with our full full podcast. We're gonna be
doing on Tuesday's Kelly. We are going to give someone
and done thoughts at the end as well, So uh,
stick around for that. If you are in any of
these big one and done tournaments, yeah, good, Absolutely we'll
start working those in. We we gotta get our own going.
We we we failed to set that up, but yeah, me,
(01:25):
you and West gotta get one going, that's for sure
because that will that will add some added intrigue into
those Tuesday ones. But yeah, uma, if you will, Yeah, exactly.
So what are we up to? Six wins for Max
Home on Tour now, Matt, I think the I think
the big thing to bring up here about that tournament is,
uh is home in something you bring up often often
(01:47):
when talking about golf, handing, capping in the win equity
part of it, and this guy has it at this point.
I mean, it's it's when you can look down on the
the odds board and we talk about betting outrights, that's
a major factor. How many how often can these guys
true we go out there and win, um and I
think Sunday you know, really encompassing or Saturday, say said,
Saturday really encombagsed that more than you know, more than
(02:08):
what you normally see in the tournament. Right, you saw
him pull away from a pack of good players, really
good players, world class players and catch that guy who
you know, maybe didn't belong in that group, who then
ended up falling back. Right. But I think that takes
some mental fortitude along with a great game to be
able to pull that off. So another great win by Maxima.
(02:29):
I believe you and west Right both that outrights on
him with this. What this makes for uh, for me,
Matt is a milestone tournament. It is the first tournament
now where I just bet a finishing position bet on
a guy that went on to win it outright. I
was wondering when that day would come, and this the
day has arrived, Max Homa, you are the guy. So yeah,
(02:50):
I'm a little upset with myself. I didn't end up
betting that out right on him. But but a wenzo
wenzo wins a win right exactly and typically captain you, sir,
because it doesn't take much talking me into Kegan Bradley
a bet. But as soon as you started talking about him,
I I've grabbed a top five. I was like, good
enough for me. If Matt likes him, I've always liked him,
so I'll grab that at twelve to one. So that
(03:10):
was a big cash for me, uh this weekend, And
like you said, a great a great start for us
here on the long shots. Yeah, it was. It was
good stuff here and and I'm glad you brought up
that win equity point because I do want to drive
that home here and something you're gonna hear us talk
about certainly throughout the course of the golf season here
on the Big Pod, and what we want our guys
(03:31):
that can close. We all what we want our guys
that possess whatever that is that is able to go
ahead and get these bets home. And listen, you know,
I took a shot on a guy that that Kelly
and I have bet many of times in Brennan Steele.
And you know I did a top ten on Brendon
Steele because my numbers played out. Brendon Steele finds himself
(03:53):
after two rounds right at the top of the leaderboard,
comes back and goes seventy seventy five on the weekend.
Because that's just kind of what Brennan Steele does. The
win equity for him, it's just almost non existent and
that's why when we take some of these guys, and Kelly,
this is a point that I think you and I
will really try to drive home. There are gonna be
some guys that we really just never bet outrights on.
(04:16):
But you're gonna see us bet these top twenties on
these guys all the time, or top thirties or top forties.
You're gonna like, guys, why do you always bet these
guys top forty or off top thirty or top twenty,
And you don't ever bet these guys outright, And it's
because they don't win, and they have no win equity whatsoever.
They are good enough to hang around, they're good enough.
They're professional lurkers, Kelly, that's what we call them. They're
(04:36):
professional lurkers. But they just don't win these tournaments. And
and you know, look, they're good to keep your bank
roll healthy, but they are very bad to drain your
bank roll if you continually bet them without rights. Yeah, totally.
I mean, and you know examples of this, right, if
you're asking, it's you know, it's how we talked about
Tony Final a year and a half, right, right, or
a year ago, even a year ago, but a year
(04:57):
year and a half ago. That's how we talked about
Tony Finale. Um, you know, in the second place for
Keithan Bradley, I think it's a guy you could make
that case right like Keith Keys can go you know,
real low or real high depending on the day. UM.
I don't know about you, guy, but I got a
little nervous when he had to start putting the uh
putting the pedal to the floor there on those uh,
(05:17):
those last couple of holes where I'm like, oh, boy,
Kicks is gonna be going for it here. He might
play himself right out of this top five. Um. A
couple other guys that I don't know what what all
stood out to you at the tournament, but another top
twenty bet that I got home that man, this guy
is I mean, you don't want to sound the alarms
with someone to keep an eye on here to chasing
date is continuing to play well now, Um you know
(05:39):
te seven finishes eight under. I don't really know if
I was in the camp of believing we were going
to see a big resurgence from this guy. Uh, I
don't know, maybe ever again, but he's been looking good
here in the past couple of months. So I played
him in one and done this week, so that was
my and the big and the big one and done tournaments.
I played him because Here's there are a couple different reasons. One,
(06:00):
you know, lots of track record at that course. Uh. Secondly,
injury history with Jason Day of recent I wanted to
get in while he's healthy. I wanted to get in
before he had time to maybe you know, let some
of these back injuries that have been lingering, you know,
creep back in yep. So I just wanted to get
at him early. I ended up playing him in one
and done. It was, you know, good for two two
(06:22):
thousand for him. Another guy that was good for two
two thousand is John rom who shoots around one seventy three,
comes back to go sixty seven, sixty six, but then
shoot seventy four there in round four and and Kelly,
listen for me and for you, I think for golf
bettors everywhere, hallelujah that he is that he can shoot
seventy four still on Sunday. Because had he gone out
(06:45):
and shot another sixty six or something like that on Sunday,
golf betting was gonna be ruined for us. I mean,
like It's just it was it was gonna be horrible,
and so you know the fact that John Ram isn't
gonna go out and even if he finds himself, you know,
in that top three, he's not just a shoe end
to win the tournament, at least for us right now.
It was a It was a blessing in disguise, certainly
(07:07):
for me, because I mean we were about to get
into a point we couldn't even play out rights anymore.
We're basically just gotta be the only body in placement markets.
I mean I only bet one outright last week because
I I already felt we were starting to see that.
I thought that that range, you know, when Homer was
right in that range of kind of guys on the
odds board that I didn't really think had been adjusted for.
(07:27):
It felt like they had cut John Rom's odds almost
in half essentially, right, and then didn't adjust anybody you know,
passed him to about until about thirty to one. So
I mean, that was really why I stayed. It was
stayed away mainly from the outright. So you're right, we
dodged a bullet there. I ended up getting in on
him live on that What was it Thursday when he
was making a strong push, Um ended up getting in
(07:50):
on him live on that on that in that round.
But like I do that, I completely agree with what
you just said. I'm happy to throw away a few
bucks on that live bed if you know, if that
doesn't mean John rom isn't gonna go full Tiger Woods
on us and kind of ruined Gulf outright bedding. Yeah,
I you know, Listen, we had home up, we had Bradley.
If you kind of go down the board a little
(08:12):
bit further, there were some other guys that Listen made
the cut. I mean that that we're never really in contention.
I had a three one on Bramlet. He finished his
t thirteen, so we're at least one of the things
I like to do. We talked about the Brennan Steel
collapse and all that, but he did make the cut
and was around. Jonathan Vegas again made the cut and
was around. So we had these tickets on these guys
(08:34):
that are there, and that's kind of one of the
ways that I go back when the tournaments are over.
And even if the guys weren't in contention, Listen was
I was I on guys that made the cut. We're
on guys that, like, you know, we're at least around
and all that. At least lets us know that maybe
the process was right and was there and we were
kind of sniffing in the right direction. We'll say this
(08:55):
a million times also on this podcast, we move forward.
Only what guy can win a golf tournament, So like
hitting these outrights, there's a hundred and fifty guys gonna
be teeing it up. Only one guy can win a
golf tournament. So we're as long as you're getting guys
to make the cut, they can find themselves around. That's
kind of what we're looking for here, Kelly. So I
think we did pretty good in this pirse go at it.
One of the guys I think too to keep an
(09:16):
eye on. I mean, listen supposedly has the new Swings,
has whatever. Ricky Fowler T eleven right there, he's around.
You've got you know, fenwe did have the bad round
in there on Sunday at the seventy three, but you know,
he's still a top ten guys whatever. So I think
these guys that even that was it was just a
(09:37):
bad punning day, really, right, I mean, it was like
an atrocious punting day. Um. But yeah, I mean I
think fine. I mean, he showed he can bounce back
from that a little bit, so I'm not really too
worried about him at all. Um. And the yeah, man,
I mean Ricky Fowler, that's that's dan impressive and great
to see. I think if you're I mean, jeez, if
you're the PGA Tour, you gotta be thrilled Ricky h
(10:00):
Ricky playing better. I mean, he's one of the biggest
draws you get a tournament period. Um, So yeah, I
think that's great. With all the stuff going on with
Live right now, hit Deckie playing well, finished inside the
top ten. He's a guy. Man. I just I feel
like I can never bet because you never know what's
coming with him. Um, I think you know, Fowler's next
big step here is okay. Cool. He's shown some flashes.
(10:20):
You just gotta put together some more consistency. It felt
like he was just watching him in that final round.
It's like he'd go one good hole, one bad hole,
one good hole, one bad hole. Um. You know, and
even sometimes, I mean, she's a scorecard even says that
it's Birdie Birdie, you know, par bogey Birdie Bogie Burdie.
It's like it was just kind of all over the place.
Was super colorful for him, for sure. One other guy
(10:41):
I want to talk about and then we'll move on
to the A T and T here is just uh,
you know Will's alataurus goes sixty eight then seventy seven
to miss the cut. You I just I just have
to wonder. To listen, we'll hear what he has to
say as we head into you know, the next tournament
that he plays. We'll hear what you know comes out
all these golf beat writers that get to talk to
(11:01):
these guys. But I do wonder if there was any
sort of injury thing that when all you know, we thought,
we know that he was coming back off injury. We
know that that is at least out there. Did he
did he stiffing up? Did he whatever? You know? I
don't know. But again, it goes sixty seventy seven to
miss the cut. And I think for me with old
Willie z Kelly, no matter what my model tells me,
(11:24):
I think I'm gonna need to see it on the
course first before I come back in on him with
an outright unless unless these numbers just drift to a
point where it's just just egregious. Yes, I agree, I
was wondering where you were going to go there. I
don't think he's gonna be taken off my betting board completely,
but I I I'm right there as far as an
(11:44):
outright perspective, man, I'm right there with you on him
right now and calling more a cow, you know what
I mean. Yeah, And that might be recency by some
little bit because I just got burned on him a
couple of weeks ago, But well, look, man, I think
that's I was impressed he was able to bounce back
and play as well as he did this tournament. But
after what Rome did to him in that tournament, I
(12:06):
I'm a little worried about his just mental for to
do it. About closing, right, I mean, how we just
started this podcast talking about Homer and closing. I need
to see that from mora cow, I think, before I'm
on him in an outright bed again. So we move
on to Pebble Beach. We've got the A T and
T here. This is a pro am. It's a three
course rotation, full on going and gotta go ahead and
(12:27):
tell you guys right now, not gonna be a not
gonna be an extensive card for me. I hate this tournament.
I hate the three different course rotation. The only course
that we have shot linked data on obviously is just
the peb Pebble Beach Course, and so I it's just,
you know, we don't have the shot linked data for
the other stuff. It's it goes back into that weird
thing again, Kelly, where it's like, you know, are these
(12:49):
guys okay with playing these six hour rounds and dealing
with the three you know, the whole cut instead of
the way. So it's just lots of stuff for me.
But top of the odds board, it's gonna be a
little thin, guys, because a lot of the players are
overseas right now playing over in Abu Dhabi. So it's
Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan's Spee, Victor Hoblan are really your big
(13:10):
three names here eleven, eleven and twelve over at DraftKings
right now, and then it is all the way to
twenty at MAV McNeely, Tom Hogi at twenty two, Shamus
Power at twenty two. Just to kind of let you
know the gigantic fall off when it comes to star
power at this thing, Kelly, like I said, I'm not
gonna have a ton of of action in this thing.
(13:32):
If for me, I'm never gonna stay near the top
of the board for this either. With the three course rotation,
I think a lot of wacky things can happen. I'm
probably gonna have three or four outrights, It's probably gonna
be in the mid range, and we'll just kind of
we'll regroup here in a couple of weeks at waste
management whenever we get the elevated prize pool and everybody's
gonna be there. Yeah the uh yeah, no, completely agree
(13:53):
with you. This is always one trying to trend lightly on.
But um, you know, just looking at dis Odds board
and who and who's taking place, I don't want to
say I'm surprised to hear you say that, But the problem,
the problem is with this odds board in the way
these outright numbers are shaping up. Man It Fitzpatrick, speed
Hoglan almost any of the three of them. Still think
I still think I'd rather bet those guys that those
(14:15):
kind of numbers than a you know, McNeely, shame his power,
you know, at at not even double or double the
odds um It feels like there should be a bigger
separation there, So I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised
if I land on maybe one of those shorter shot
guys and then sprinkling some longer long shots. Uh, the
one guy, The one guy. I am disappointed because I
(14:37):
think you and I were both on him a couple
of weeks Gogoes injured Putnam, Um, he was another guy
I was kind of looking to, looking to play off
of them. Maybe I'll still end up on him again.
Me and You'll be running all our bottles and everything
would be getting back in that tomorrow the show. But
just seeing him at twenty eight to one hurts a
little bit because I was hoping to get him in
a little bit at a longer number than that. As
you guys start your research tonight and and tomorrow, and
(14:58):
just remember this is this is nothing it last week.
It is shorter courses should be easier setups because of
the pro am that we've got going on as well.
So the conditions and what type of player can be
successful here is much much different than what we got
last week. So that is not something that we are
going to be really taking into consideration at all. I mean,
we look at past winners here, Shorter guys, kind of
(15:20):
guys that that aren't known, you know, Daniel Berger, Jordan's Speed.
We've got those type of guys, uh, that have had
success here. And you know, it's also doesn't have to
be a who's who. Really We've had Brent Senedecker win,
Jimmy Walker win, We've had Ted Potter win. Yeah. I mean,
we've had Hoagi win at sixty six last year. So
(15:41):
I don't always have to be one of the favorites
to win this thing either, So just kind of keep
that in mind. Scores are gonna be pretty low, gonna
be in that seventeen eighteen, nineteen twenties range as far
as who's going to win this deal. So I'm gonna
have to play well. I'm gonna have to play well
for all four rounds if you want to get it
done at this deal. Again, it's Monterey, Spike last, and
Pebble Beach only Pebble Do we have shot linked data
(16:03):
on As you go back and start to do your research, Kelly,
I know that we will. We will get west On
here tomorrow. You and I will run through the models,
see what we've got going on, and see if there's
anything that we have. Um, you know that we want
to get in the account fairly early here. But fellas
if you want to look again the the top of
the odds board, I don't think we're gonna get a
ton of movement here. I don't think this tournament is
(16:24):
going to draw a ton of early action. I don't
you know, again, without all the star power, I just
think everyone's gonna see eleven on Matt Fitzpatrick, or eleven
on speech or twelve on Hobling. I can't imagine people
are gonna be piling in the money on those guys.
So I don't think you got to act fast, But
I guess I could be wrong. Kelly, Yeah, yeah, I
I would agree, But yeah, you know, you know, you
(16:44):
never know that is true with some of these some
of these guys and some of these tournaments, right, I mean,
like this one is a little bit funkier. Um, you know,
if someone's just looking at tournament history, obviously Jordan's speed
has done really well here. Second place last year, TE three,
the year before T nine, the year before that. Um,
so you know, pretty consistent results from that guy. He
just real quickly we'll getting all this stuff tomorrow. But
(17:06):
if you are doing, you know, some of your own
course handicap at home, just remember, you know, as Matt
mentioned a bit, this is a shorter course. Uh, you
know when we're talking about the Pebble Beach or at
least whe'll p where'll play the final two rounds shorter
shorter course. Of course, you've got small greens, um that
you know, this is kind of the first time we're
gonna see smaller greens here, uh this season. Um. And
(17:27):
then you've got wider fairways too, so it's a it's
a little bit different course to handicap. Um. You know.
I kind of I wish I wish Matt they would
just play four rounds at Pebble Beach and we can
actually get a get rid of this program. You know,
it's a beautiful place to watch. I love watching it
on TV. I just hate the tournament set up, you
know what I mean. I hate the program part and
I hate the three course rotation. Yeah. No, I'm rough
(17:49):
is gonna be short all that different thing Like there's
gonna be scoring here, guys, So I don't don't overthink it.
It's going to be it's gonna be playing fairly simple,
so that kind of keeps it shortest course on Yeah,
in your in your handicap here, a guy's always head
of Revisa dot com. West does an incredible right up
of the course and the course preview and things like that,
so be sure and go in and read that before
(18:12):
you start all of your research as well. West's in
a ton of work to kind of get you prepped
for what you need to look at. As we head
in today a T and T pro am, and again
this is uh gonna be a shorter card for I
think most of us most likely as we head into
the first really really big tournament here of three which
we're gonna get that elevated prize pool there at the
(18:34):
Waste Management heading into the Super Bowl as well down
there in Scottsdale. For Kelly, I'm Att. Tune into the
full episode along Shost tomorrow
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