May 15, 2024 • 18 mins
Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon give their final thoughts before the PGA Championship. Reports say one inch of the rough was cut after rain. If that's the case, how does that affect your handicapping? Dustin Johnson's odds have drifted to longer than 100-1. Also, other under-the-radar players are intriguing to Matt and Kelley.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Hello and welcome
to the Wednesday edition, pre PGA Championship edition of long
Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the Visa Podcast Network.
Matt Brown, Kelly Biblin coming to you with just some
updated thoughts here as we head into the tee times
(00:24):
kicking off on Thursday morning. Kelly's gonna give you some
first round leader bets that he might have made. I'm
gonna give you some final thoughts here on everything and
how maybe a little bit of a shift in my
approach in all of this a little bit here, Kelly,
as we head into you know, look a tournament in
which you know, we all were really looking at distance
(00:48):
as a key factor in all of this. And then
I'm just listening to PGA. Just listen to PGA Radio.
Guys are on site. They just got done walk in
the course, and I guess because of of the rain
that came in yesterday and the little bit of sprinkling
and stuff that was going on this morning there and
all of that, they actually took an inch of the
(01:10):
rough away. So it's only about three inches a rough
instead of four inches are rough. If it did soften
up the conditions a little bit, then the longer hitters
have even more of an advantage in all of this
than even before. So I'm gonna lean a little bit
heavier into into some of the longer dudes on tour.
(01:33):
Maybe take a flyer on a kind of a proven dude,
and we'll talk about that here in a little bit
with all of this, because it was just a it
was interesting to hear that they made the decision that
with the rain and they're expecting, you know, there because
it was going to be thick anyway. And so like
with the rain and the moisture and then the four
inches and then probably that four inches grows to maybe
(01:55):
like four and a quarter or four and a half,
they decided to take it down to three. And the
guy said that from what he saw with the guys
that were playing some of the practice rounds, that yeah,
it's hard to spin it out of there, you know
or whatever that and it's like they weren't having that
much trouble getting it out of there, you know that.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
That is interesting.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
So I and this is an unfair question to put
you on the spot four probably.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Did you.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Uh so did they specifically say they cut it down
to three?
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I only asked that because we were you know, we
all the stuff we were hearing, you know, you know,
a week ago, days before it was it was okay,
it's four inches, but you know a couple of the
reports I had read and stuff of okay, it's a
it's been a hotter than normal spring like, stuff's grown quicker.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So like they were even saying it's four inches.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
It might even be longer than that of what it's
grown out to at this point.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
So I do, I do think that's helpful though.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
That's a great note and passed along glad you did,
because I think I was looking at it more as
this is gonna be four inches minimum, it might play
even thicker than that. So clearly it must have grown
to a point where they felt the need they had
to take it down.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'm guessing with the rain, they thought that the grass
was going to grow and they thought whatever, and you know, yeah, yeah, yeah,
and so they decided to go ahead and chop it
down now, which you know, look by the by Saturday Sunday,
could it be a little bit taller obviously, sure, but
it looks like for these opening rounds, which obviously did
emphasize this distance even more and less about accuracy. So
(03:22):
I went in and kind of adjusted the model a
little bit. Where I was a little bit heavier on
on total driving, I backed off of that a little
bit and put in more distance to go, and then
I basically just swapped right where I like, I had
like a percentage that was on total driving and a
percentage that was on distance, and I flip flopped those
just to kind of see if that adjusted the model
(03:44):
at all with anything. So I did do that because
it's just for me here and that it de emphasizes
the need I think for accuracy. And then also you know, look,
if you drive it, this is just this is basic
like gorilla math here, but like you know, again, it
does add up. I believe if you drive it longer,
(04:05):
you probably swing the club faster. If you swing the
club faster, you have an easier time in getting out
of the rough. If the rough is not all that
hard to get out of as it is anyway, then
you might be able to get at least a little
bit of spin on it because you have such high
clubhead speed and all the things like that, So it
just kind of like all of it kind of leads
to the dudes that swing harder, faster, longer stuff and
(04:25):
things like that.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
And so did it make you add bet?
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Yeah, so I think I'm gonna be looking at two
other guys specifically because of some drifts here. But let's
get into your first round leader first and then we'll
and then we'll go from there.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Yeah, I have I haven't put any of these in yet,
but I think I've isolated the four that I will
be betting here that will be.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And four.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Look, I mean this is kind of the same thing
as when we talk about the rest of our models
and what does it spin out. Yeah, it's Scotti, Scheffer,
Ory and mac Roxander Shoffley basically at the top, and shoot,
I'll throw in Ludwig. It's those four basically. Every when
I do first Round Leader, it's really short really looking
at kind of the same type of modeling stuff, but
really short term, you're taking away even a little bit
more if you factored in putting and stuff like that,
(05:10):
because you need guys to run a little bit more pure, right,
so they got to hit gotta do you know, hit fairways,
hit greens, have a good have a good round, which
means you're not playing around the green too much. So
always a little first round leader model, and I always
put together it's just always a little bit different than
what my overall model is, but it's still mainly the same.
And then I'm looking at much shorter time frames from
(05:30):
where we're breaking down stats. So four guys that isolated.
I wanted to ask you about one because I didn't
hear either you or what West bring up Keith Mitchell
at all. And he was a guy that you know,
he was popping from me over you know, different time periods,
but especially recent because kind of top ten, top fifteen
and everything that I was running. So he's a guy
that I bet top twenty, top forty, I will be
(05:52):
betting a first round leader on him.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Was he a guy you had any interest in?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
You?
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Although, so the rerun of the model, Kelly with adjusting
the way that I did for everything, and then whenever
you certainly kind of if you look at more recent form,
kind of like last twenty four rounds and see what
these guys are doing coming in with all that.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
Keith Mitchell's eighth overall.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Yeah, and that is ahead of and that is ahead
of Wyndham Clark, that is ahead of Saha Thigala of
who I'm on. That just ahead of obviously you know
he's been playing like garbage. Maybe that's ahead of Cantley,
that's ahead of Zalataurs, that's you know, all these different dudes. So, uh,
Keith Mitchell is likely going to make my card for sure,
at least in some capacity, be it in head to heads,
(06:32):
be it in a grouping, be it in a placement market.
And from a DFS perspective, he's pretty cheap and allows
you to get to some of these higher end dudes.
The rerun of the model to emphasizing just the distance
purely over accuracy. Also, and look it's a flip fop
of one and two, it doesn't really matter, but it
actually did bump Scottie from one to two and put
(06:53):
Rory in one.
Speaker 4 (06:53):
Wow on the model.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Because again just totally totally emphasizing just distance. You know,
it had had Rory bump up to uh to number one.
But I'll tell you the one that's interesting to me.
And whether that's whether to me it's gonna be a
haven't decided exactly how I'm gonna go about it. I
think there'll at least be a sprinkle on outright specifically
here in Vegas. And I understand this is you guys.
(07:18):
Most of you listening don't have access to the stuff
that we have access to here in Vegas. But so
if we're just talking about long and maybe they're rough
and gonna be all that penal and dudes with experience
and maybe kind of flying under the radar and stuff
like that, Dude Dustin Johnson has drifted to a hundred
(07:38):
to one hundred and ten to one here in AE
hundred and ten to one. Yeah, and he's still long,
and he's won majors, and you know, if he's not
gonna get penalized for maybe spraying it here and there
a little bit, and like, he'll still be able to,
(07:58):
you know, be big and strong and get it out
of this rough and all of that.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
I think I'm gonna have.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
To get exposure some way, shape or form to DJ.
And he's another guy that just wasn't on the radar
really at all. But then once you really focus in
on on driving distance and things like that, and and
you know that type of deal. I mean, guys, if
you if you really just go nothing but but driving this.
So let's just take everything else out of the equation, right,
(08:26):
Like you're gonna get a whole bunch of dudes you
probably never heard of. There's there's you know, some guys
playing on other tours that have qualified for all this.
But you know, you start to look and it it
gets too you know, Wyndham Clark and Taylor Pendrith and
Steven Jaeger and John Rahm and Tony fen Now and
(08:46):
Dustin Johnson like you you know, like you outside of
like the obvious of Bryson and and Benny onh and
so if the guys who just absolutely you know, Rory
and stuff that absolutely crush it.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
DJ still pokes it out there.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
And like I've got the lived in one of the
models that I use, So I do know he's still
putting it out there, you know, really long, really far.
And so I think I got to figure out some
way Kelly to uh to get some access there to
old DJ.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
It's hard to argue with that number, man, Like I mean,
it's really I mean, at those odds, I think the
other like the other guy have I I bet him
in a matchup? I did talk about that on the
show yesterday. I bet him in a matchup over Jason Day,
and I bet a top twenty on. I bet a
top twenty on. I would say this guy's been on
my radar basically all season, which I've been kind of
surprised about. And he's played he's played pretty good golf.
(09:39):
He just hasn't teed it up a ton because he's
getting a little older. Kind of in the same uh,
in the same vein Sadam Scott. Adam Scott like another
guy that like, okay, what do you know, Like like
his game should fit here, Like the guy can hit
it off the tea pretty damn far.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean, God, he's got good finishes.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
This year's T twenty ninth, last thirty at Byron Nelson,
twenty second at the Masters, T fourteen. I mean he's
got four top twenty finishes this year. Hey, I mean
he was T fifteen.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Here ten years ago.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Like, I don't know that there's too much we can
draw draw off of there, but I mean, last twelve rounds,
number one in the field of part five scoring like that.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
I mean, he's another guy.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
I don't think I'm gonna play first round leader, but
I feel like he's a guy just just kind of
like you're talking about with Dustin Johnson of.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Man, a guy who's what. We've seen him.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Play great golf at the at the you know, in
the biggest tournaments, and I don't hear his name really
being mentioned at all.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
And I think he's a guy. He's a guy got
a couple bets in.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I was considering him first as a first round leader,
but I think I'm gonna pass on that, uh pass.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
On him there. But he's another guy. DJ's not a
guy I've heard a single person bring up.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, it's just for me. If I'm going back to
just you know, distance, power, raw strength, all of that
he's actually got. He's actually pretty good around the greens
if you look at scrambling and is around the green.
So even if he yeah, even if it doesn't hold,
he's still getting it there and then like can still whatever.
So yeah, I mean, that's just an interesting one for
(11:11):
me and something that I didn't expect at all. But
once I re ran this stuff, that's kind of where
I got to just to give you guys that are
playing DFS out there a thought.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So I ran, wait, Matt before he gets it. Just
finish my yeah, yeah, my first round leader card real quick.
So Keith Mitchell playing him? I'm playing Benny Ann. I
mean there there is. He's probably one of the hottest
guys like coming into this tournament, right outside of these
guys that we talk about winning. We talk about two
top ten finishes in a row for him. Know, you
would less have bet him a fair amount this year.
(11:43):
I will be playing him first round leader, and then
I think I'm gonna play Justin Thomas. I think I'm
gonna go on the high, high upside with JT what
he's been able to put put together here, and I
think those are the three I'm gonna play. There were
a couple others I was staring at, can't lay Adam
Scott or two I was looking at. I don't think
I'm gonna end up playing them, but Mitchell, Justin Thomas,
Benny and will for sure be on my car DFS or.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Sorry, yeah no, I just it was one of those
things where if guys are out there and they're gonna
be building you know, DFS lineups and things, and you know,
I one of the things I just I think that
we can do just to help out a little bit.
Obviously we're not We're not doing anybody any services by
saying like, oh, the top guys are great to play
in your lineup. I mean I obviously like that's not
(12:27):
that doesn't do anybody any good. But you know, if
you go to any of these sites, any actually any
of the ones that we talk about, all of them
will will kind of do make up DFS lineups for
you based off of kind of where your model has
spit out things and randomness and stuff like that to
try to give you some unique stuff. So, for example,
I ran fifty. I just ran fifty lineups based off
of my twenty four round model with the heavier emphasis
(12:50):
on the driving distance, and so like some names that
maybe weirdly pop up just a lot in the randomness
of the lineup, and look, these are trying to fit
in big name do while also filling it out with
some of the cheaper dudes that you can find. You know,
somewhere along the way of the fifty lineups I ran, oddly,
Alex Norn is in thirteen of them, Steven Jaeger's in
(13:12):
twelve of them. Beyond that you just talked about is
in eleven of them, I don't think at all like
Sea Wou. I know, Sea Wou's not long, but he's
great with the long iron. Seawoo is in sixteen of
the fifty lineups. The Gala is in at least ten.
So you start to get an idea of, like, if
you're rounding out your lineups, you know, and you're trying
(13:33):
to like look for some dudes to kind of post in.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Min Wu Lee is in like eight or nine of them.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You know that I would expect Mitchell to be a name.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, so there's like, oh, Keith Mitchell's in ten. Yeah,
so Keith Mitchell's in ten of them as well. So again,
these are guys that, yes, you're you're trying to fit
in your Scottie's and your Rory's and your Ludwig's and
your Sanders and stuff like that like as much as possible,
but these are dudes that can help you kind of
fill out the lineup that are fairly cheap, you know,
down there along the way. And these are all guys
(14:03):
that popped up in just the kind of the lineup
generator for me as far as like kind of regularly
showing up over and over again in these lineups. So
maybe a way that you can kind of fill out
your lineup stuff with all that from a one and
done perspective for me, Kelly, you know, it's a major.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
I'm gonna play one of the liv guys.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
I'm probably gonna play Roma, you know, Like you know,
I'm probably gonna play Rom in one and done. I
have a bet on him anyway, so it you know,
if if you want to zig where other people are sagging,
you know, maybe Bryson. I imagine if people didn't play Brooks
at the Masters, there's gonna be everybody's been playing Brooks here. Yeah,
So like I from a game theory perspective, I would
(14:45):
not play Brooks right like just like cause I again
I'm trying to zig where other people are sagging, right,
and so like I imagine outside of if anybody has Scotty left,
they're gonna play Scotty. They should, but if you don't
have Scotty left, they're probably playing Brooks. And so like,
I'm gonna play Rom instead because you only get four
chances a year to use them, and.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
That is the trick.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Though I think there is a little bit of there's
a little bit of there's a little there's a little
trickiness in what you're saying though, because you are I think,
I think Strategy eight needs to be sure you're not
holding on to Eddy live guys by the end of
this that you're not gonna be able to use well,
right if if you want.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
To use them at all?
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Right, I mean, like there's a there's a world, there's
a I mean, if you if you thought, oh, I
should use Rom for the Masters, I mean you got
to forty five, that'll help you at all right.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I'm just saying, I'm just saying I would I would
care more about if if you like those guys, care
about utilizing them first before caring about what you know,
the ownership or how many guys are going to be
using Brooks.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Yeah, I'll put it this way.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
If I like power ranking them, just on base nothing
other than the fact that I have the guys available,
I would play Scotty, I would play Rory, and then
with the game theory involved here, I would play Rom
over Brooks because again, I think Brooks is probably gonna
be the most popular dude in one and Done, outside
(16:07):
of outside of Rory and Scotty, and so he might
be the.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Most popular period because you know, because of the list.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Yeah, and so it's kind of one of those deals
where sure, can he go win this? He could, But
if you get a if you get a T forty
five like you got out of Rom at the at
the Masters, you are gonna be way ahead of a
lot of people want and done right, like using some
of these other dudes. And so just something to think
about when it's all said and done. I have Brooks available,
and I'm not gonna use it because I honestly think, Kelly,
you you might be honest, I think it could be.
(16:35):
I think it could be the most used guy, like
he actually might be like the most popular guy and
want and done this week.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
So I have both him and Ram available. I like
both of them this week, I really do.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
But I'm going to play I'm gonna play Rom just
because of that because I think Brooks is going to
be played that much.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
But I just wanted to lay it out.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
I would still I still really like Brooks here, so
I would.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
I'm not hating anybody if you want to go down,
if you want to go down in that road.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
Yeah, So those are the those are interesting things for me. Again.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
This week, the rerun of the model kind of confirmed
some of my other stances, which I made me feel good, right,
like you add a little extra distance in there. It
loves rom it loves Ludwig, it loves you know, like
I mean Justin Thomas actually jumps up because Justin's still
long off the t Justin Thomas now like jumps up
to thirteenth right in the model. So like these things
(17:23):
like that, So I'm kind of glad for that. Max
Homa actually like climbs up to about eighteenth in the model,
you know.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
Whereas again I'm I'm going on with Max.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
It's like I'm going on, I'm going on you know,
big course form, right, I'm not necessarily like I'm not
going necessarily on modeling so much with him. So on's
all sudden done, Kelly. That's where I'm at. And uh,
you know, guys, good luck on everything. If you didn't
listen to the first two pods, there are two other
pods in your feed. Go in, download those and listen
to them. We have a giveaway we're doing. But there's
something that you've got to do. It is at the
(17:57):
It is at the end of pod number one. So
go in, listen and find what you gotta do. Kelly
closing remarks here.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Good luck to everybody who's the one guy. If they win,
you're gonna be the most pissed off he didn't bet them,
because I've got an answer for that, an easy one.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
Yeah, I mean Brooks for me, because it's like, okay.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Hitdeki Matsiyama for me.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
If that guy wins, I'm gonna lose my flipping mind
because I don't even know what to do.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
With him this week.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
There it is, poor Kelly.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
I'm att.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
Good luck on all your PGA bets.
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Hello and welcome
to the Wednesday edition, pre PGA Championship edition of long
Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the Visa Podcast Network.
Matt Brown, Kelly Biblin coming to you with just some
updated thoughts here as we head into the tee times
(00:24):
kicking off on Thursday morning. Kelly's gonna give you some
first round leader bets that he might have made. I'm
gonna give you some final thoughts here on everything and
how maybe a little bit of a shift in my
approach in all of this a little bit here, Kelly,
as we head into you know, look a tournament in
which you know, we all were really looking at distance
(00:48):
as a key factor in all of this. And then
I'm just listening to PGA. Just listen to PGA Radio.
Guys are on site. They just got done walk in
the course, and I guess because of of the rain
that came in yesterday and the little bit of sprinkling
and stuff that was going on this morning there and
all of that, they actually took an inch of the
(01:10):
rough away. So it's only about three inches a rough
instead of four inches are rough. If it did soften
up the conditions a little bit, then the longer hitters
have even more of an advantage in all of this
than even before. So I'm gonna lean a little bit
heavier into into some of the longer dudes on tour.
(01:33):
Maybe take a flyer on a kind of a proven dude,
and we'll talk about that here in a little bit
with all of this, because it was just a it
was interesting to hear that they made the decision that
with the rain and they're expecting, you know, there because
it was going to be thick anyway. And so like
with the rain and the moisture and then the four
inches and then probably that four inches grows to maybe
(01:55):
like four and a quarter or four and a half,
they decided to take it down to three. And the
guy said that from what he saw with the guys
that were playing some of the practice rounds, that yeah,
it's hard to spin it out of there, you know
or whatever that and it's like they weren't having that
much trouble getting it out of there, you know that.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
That is interesting.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
So I and this is an unfair question to put
you on the spot four probably.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Did you.
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Uh so did they specifically say they cut it down
to three?
Speaker 4 (02:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I only asked that because we were you know, we
all the stuff we were hearing, you know, you know,
a week ago, days before it was it was okay,
it's four inches, but you know a couple of the
reports I had read and stuff of okay, it's a
it's been a hotter than normal spring like, stuff's grown quicker.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So like they were even saying it's four inches.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
It might even be longer than that of what it's
grown out to at this point.
Speaker 2 (02:44):
So I do, I do think that's helpful though.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
That's a great note and passed along glad you did,
because I think I was looking at it more as
this is gonna be four inches minimum, it might play
even thicker than that. So clearly it must have grown
to a point where they felt the need they had
to take it down.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'm guessing with the rain, they thought that the grass
was going to grow and they thought whatever, and you know, yeah, yeah, yeah,
and so they decided to go ahead and chop it
down now, which you know, look by the by Saturday Sunday,
could it be a little bit taller obviously, sure, but
it looks like for these opening rounds, which obviously did
emphasize this distance even more and less about accuracy. So
(03:22):
I went in and kind of adjusted the model a
little bit. Where I was a little bit heavier on
on total driving, I backed off of that a little
bit and put in more distance to go, and then
I basically just swapped right where I like, I had
like a percentage that was on total driving and a
percentage that was on distance, and I flip flopped those
just to kind of see if that adjusted the model
(03:44):
at all with anything. So I did do that because
it's just for me here and that it de emphasizes
the need I think for accuracy. And then also you know, look,
if you drive it, this is just this is basic
like gorilla math here, but like you know, again, it
does add up. I believe if you drive it longer,
(04:05):
you probably swing the club faster. If you swing the
club faster, you have an easier time in getting out
of the rough. If the rough is not all that
hard to get out of as it is anyway, then
you might be able to get at least a little
bit of spin on it because you have such high
clubhead speed and all the things like that, So it
just kind of like all of it kind of leads
to the dudes that swing harder, faster, longer stuff and
(04:25):
things like that.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
And so did it make you add bet?
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Yeah, so I think I'm gonna be looking at two
other guys specifically because of some drifts here. But let's
get into your first round leader first and then we'll
and then we'll go from there.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Yeah, I have I haven't put any of these in yet,
but I think I've isolated the four that I will
be betting here that will be.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And four.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Look, I mean this is kind of the same thing
as when we talk about the rest of our models
and what does it spin out. Yeah, it's Scotti, Scheffer,
Ory and mac Roxander Shoffley basically at the top, and shoot,
I'll throw in Ludwig. It's those four basically. Every when
I do first Round Leader, it's really short really looking
at kind of the same type of modeling stuff, but
really short term, you're taking away even a little bit
more if you factored in putting and stuff like that,
(05:10):
because you need guys to run a little bit more pure, right,
so they got to hit gotta do you know, hit fairways,
hit greens, have a good have a good round, which
means you're not playing around the green too much. So
always a little first round leader model, and I always
put together it's just always a little bit different than
what my overall model is, but it's still mainly the same.
And then I'm looking at much shorter time frames from
(05:30):
where we're breaking down stats. So four guys that isolated.
I wanted to ask you about one because I didn't
hear either you or what West bring up Keith Mitchell
at all. And he was a guy that you know,
he was popping from me over you know, different time periods,
but especially recent because kind of top ten, top fifteen
and everything that I was running. So he's a guy
that I bet top twenty, top forty, I will be
(05:52):
betting a first round leader on him.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Was he a guy you had any interest in?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
You?
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Although, so the rerun of the model, Kelly with adjusting
the way that I did for everything, and then whenever
you certainly kind of if you look at more recent form,
kind of like last twenty four rounds and see what
these guys are doing coming in with all that.
Speaker 4 (06:10):
Keith Mitchell's eighth overall.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
Yeah, and that is ahead of and that is ahead
of Wyndham Clark, that is ahead of Saha Thigala of
who I'm on. That just ahead of obviously you know
he's been playing like garbage. Maybe that's ahead of Cantley,
that's ahead of Zalataurs, that's you know, all these different dudes. So, uh,
Keith Mitchell is likely going to make my card for sure,
at least in some capacity, be it in head to heads,
(06:32):
be it in a grouping, be it in a placement market.
And from a DFS perspective, he's pretty cheap and allows
you to get to some of these higher end dudes.
The rerun of the model to emphasizing just the distance
purely over accuracy. Also, and look it's a flip fop
of one and two, it doesn't really matter, but it
actually did bump Scottie from one to two and put
(06:53):
Rory in one.
Speaker 4 (06:53):
Wow on the model.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
Because again just totally totally emphasizing just distance. You know,
it had had Rory bump up to uh to number one.
But I'll tell you the one that's interesting to me.
And whether that's whether to me it's gonna be a
haven't decided exactly how I'm gonna go about it. I
think there'll at least be a sprinkle on outright specifically
here in Vegas. And I understand this is you guys.
(07:18):
Most of you listening don't have access to the stuff
that we have access to here in Vegas. But so
if we're just talking about long and maybe they're rough
and gonna be all that penal and dudes with experience
and maybe kind of flying under the radar and stuff
like that, Dude Dustin Johnson has drifted to a hundred
(07:38):
to one hundred and ten to one here in AE
hundred and ten to one. Yeah, and he's still long,
and he's won majors, and you know, if he's not
gonna get penalized for maybe spraying it here and there
a little bit, and like, he'll still be able to,
(07:58):
you know, be big and strong and get it out
of this rough and all of that.
Speaker 4 (08:03):
I think I'm gonna have.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
To get exposure some way, shape or form to DJ.
And he's another guy that just wasn't on the radar
really at all. But then once you really focus in
on on driving distance and things like that, and and
you know that type of deal. I mean, guys, if
you if you really just go nothing but but driving this.
So let's just take everything else out of the equation, right,
(08:26):
Like you're gonna get a whole bunch of dudes you
probably never heard of. There's there's you know, some guys
playing on other tours that have qualified for all this.
But you know, you start to look and it it
gets too you know, Wyndham Clark and Taylor Pendrith and
Steven Jaeger and John Rahm and Tony fen Now and
(08:46):
Dustin Johnson like you you know, like you outside of
like the obvious of Bryson and and Benny onh and
so if the guys who just absolutely you know, Rory
and stuff that absolutely crush it.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
DJ still pokes it out there.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
And like I've got the lived in one of the
models that I use, So I do know he's still
putting it out there, you know, really long, really far.
And so I think I got to figure out some
way Kelly to uh to get some access there to
old DJ.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
It's hard to argue with that number, man, Like I mean,
it's really I mean, at those odds, I think the
other like the other guy have I I bet him
in a matchup? I did talk about that on the
show yesterday. I bet him in a matchup over Jason Day,
and I bet a top twenty on. I bet a
top twenty on. I would say this guy's been on
my radar basically all season, which I've been kind of
surprised about. And he's played he's played pretty good golf.
(09:39):
He just hasn't teed it up a ton because he's
getting a little older. Kind of in the same uh,
in the same vein Sadam Scott. Adam Scott like another
guy that like, okay, what do you know, Like like
his game should fit here, Like the guy can hit
it off the tea pretty damn far.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I mean, God, he's got good finishes.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
This year's T twenty ninth, last thirty at Byron Nelson,
twenty second at the Masters, T fourteen. I mean he's
got four top twenty finishes this year. Hey, I mean
he was T fifteen.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
Here ten years ago.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Like, I don't know that there's too much we can
draw draw off of there, but I mean, last twelve rounds,
number one in the field of part five scoring like that.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
I mean, he's another guy.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
I don't think I'm gonna play first round leader, but
I feel like he's a guy just just kind of
like you're talking about with Dustin Johnson of.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Man, a guy who's what. We've seen him.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Play great golf at the at the you know, in
the biggest tournaments, and I don't hear his name really
being mentioned at all.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
And I think he's a guy. He's a guy got
a couple bets in.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I was considering him first as a first round leader,
but I think I'm gonna pass on that, uh pass.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
On him there. But he's another guy. DJ's not a
guy I've heard a single person bring up.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, it's just for me. If I'm going back to
just you know, distance, power, raw strength, all of that
he's actually got. He's actually pretty good around the greens
if you look at scrambling and is around the green.
So even if he yeah, even if it doesn't hold,
he's still getting it there and then like can still whatever.
So yeah, I mean, that's just an interesting one for
(11:11):
me and something that I didn't expect at all. But
once I re ran this stuff, that's kind of where
I got to just to give you guys that are
playing DFS out there a thought.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So I ran, wait, Matt before he gets it. Just
finish my yeah, yeah, my first round leader card real quick.
So Keith Mitchell playing him? I'm playing Benny Ann. I
mean there there is. He's probably one of the hottest
guys like coming into this tournament, right outside of these
guys that we talk about winning. We talk about two
top ten finishes in a row for him. Know, you
would less have bet him a fair amount this year.
(11:43):
I will be playing him first round leader, and then
I think I'm gonna play Justin Thomas. I think I'm
gonna go on the high, high upside with JT what
he's been able to put put together here, and I
think those are the three I'm gonna play. There were
a couple others I was staring at, can't lay Adam
Scott or two I was looking at. I don't think
I'm gonna end up playing them, but Mitchell, Justin Thomas,
Benny and will for sure be on my car DFS or.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Sorry, yeah no, I just it was one of those
things where if guys are out there and they're gonna
be building you know, DFS lineups and things, and you know,
I one of the things I just I think that
we can do just to help out a little bit.
Obviously we're not We're not doing anybody any services by
saying like, oh, the top guys are great to play
in your lineup. I mean I obviously like that's not
(12:27):
that doesn't do anybody any good. But you know, if
you go to any of these sites, any actually any
of the ones that we talk about, all of them
will will kind of do make up DFS lineups for
you based off of kind of where your model has
spit out things and randomness and stuff like that to
try to give you some unique stuff. So, for example,
I ran fifty. I just ran fifty lineups based off
of my twenty four round model with the heavier emphasis
(12:50):
on the driving distance, and so like some names that
maybe weirdly pop up just a lot in the randomness
of the lineup, and look, these are trying to fit
in big name do while also filling it out with
some of the cheaper dudes that you can find. You know,
somewhere along the way of the fifty lineups I ran, oddly,
Alex Norn is in thirteen of them, Steven Jaeger's in
(13:12):
twelve of them. Beyond that you just talked about is
in eleven of them, I don't think at all like
Sea Wou. I know, Sea Wou's not long, but he's
great with the long iron. Seawoo is in sixteen of
the fifty lineups. The Gala is in at least ten.
So you start to get an idea of, like, if
you're rounding out your lineups, you know, and you're trying
(13:33):
to like look for some dudes to kind of post in.
Speaker 4 (13:35):
Min Wu Lee is in like eight or nine of them.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You know that I would expect Mitchell to be a name.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
Yeah, so there's like, oh, Keith Mitchell's in ten. Yeah,
so Keith Mitchell's in ten of them as well. So again,
these are guys that, yes, you're you're trying to fit
in your Scottie's and your Rory's and your Ludwig's and
your Sanders and stuff like that like as much as possible,
but these are dudes that can help you kind of
fill out the lineup that are fairly cheap, you know,
down there along the way. And these are all guys
(14:03):
that popped up in just the kind of the lineup
generator for me as far as like kind of regularly
showing up over and over again in these lineups. So
maybe a way that you can kind of fill out
your lineup stuff with all that from a one and
done perspective for me, Kelly, you know, it's a major.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
I'm gonna play one of the liv guys.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
I'm probably gonna play Roma, you know, Like you know,
I'm probably gonna play Rom in one and done. I
have a bet on him anyway, so it you know,
if if you want to zig where other people are sagging,
you know, maybe Bryson. I imagine if people didn't play Brooks
at the Masters, there's gonna be everybody's been playing Brooks here. Yeah,
So like I from a game theory perspective, I would
(14:45):
not play Brooks right like just like cause I again
I'm trying to zig where other people are sagging, right,
and so like I imagine outside of if anybody has Scotty left,
they're gonna play Scotty. They should, but if you don't
have Scotty left, they're probably playing Brooks. And so like,
I'm gonna play Rom instead because you only get four
chances a year to use them, and.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
That is the trick.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Though I think there is a little bit of there's
a little bit of there's a little there's a little
trickiness in what you're saying though, because you are I think,
I think Strategy eight needs to be sure you're not
holding on to Eddy live guys by the end of
this that you're not gonna be able to use well,
right if if you want.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
To use them at all?
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Right, I mean, like there's a there's a world, there's
a I mean, if you if you thought, oh, I
should use Rom for the Masters, I mean you got
to forty five, that'll help you at all right.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I'm just saying, I'm just saying I would I would
care more about if if you like those guys, care
about utilizing them first before caring about what you know,
the ownership or how many guys are going to be
using Brooks.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Yeah, I'll put it this way.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
If I like power ranking them, just on base nothing
other than the fact that I have the guys available,
I would play Scotty, I would play Rory, and then
with the game theory involved here, I would play Rom
over Brooks because again, I think Brooks is probably gonna
be the most popular dude in one and Done, outside
(16:07):
of outside of Rory and Scotty, and so he might
be the.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Most popular period because you know, because of the list.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
Yeah, and so it's kind of one of those deals
where sure, can he go win this? He could, But
if you get a if you get a T forty
five like you got out of Rom at the at
the Masters, you are gonna be way ahead of a
lot of people want and done right, like using some
of these other dudes. And so just something to think
about when it's all said and done. I have Brooks available,
and I'm not gonna use it because I honestly think, Kelly,
you you might be honest, I think it could be.
(16:35):
I think it could be the most used guy, like
he actually might be like the most popular guy and
want and done this week.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
So I have both him and Ram available. I like
both of them this week, I really do.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
But I'm going to play I'm gonna play Rom just
because of that because I think Brooks is going to
be played that much.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
But I just wanted to lay it out.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
I would still I still really like Brooks here, so
I would.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
I'm not hating anybody if you want to go down,
if you want to go down in that road.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
Yeah, So those are the those are interesting things for me. Again.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
This week, the rerun of the model kind of confirmed
some of my other stances, which I made me feel good, right,
like you add a little extra distance in there. It
loves rom it loves Ludwig, it loves you know, like
I mean Justin Thomas actually jumps up because Justin's still
long off the t Justin Thomas now like jumps up
to thirteenth right in the model. So like these things
(17:23):
like that, So I'm kind of glad for that. Max
Homa actually like climbs up to about eighteenth in the model,
you know.
Speaker 4 (17:31):
Whereas again I'm I'm going on with Max.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
It's like I'm going on, I'm going on you know,
big course form, right, I'm not necessarily like I'm not
going necessarily on modeling so much with him. So on's
all sudden done, Kelly. That's where I'm at. And uh,
you know, guys, good luck on everything. If you didn't
listen to the first two pods, there are two other
pods in your feed. Go in, download those and listen
to them. We have a giveaway we're doing. But there's
something that you've got to do. It is at the
(17:57):
It is at the end of pod number one. So
go in, listen and find what you gotta do. Kelly
closing remarks here.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Good luck to everybody who's the one guy. If they win,
you're gonna be the most pissed off he didn't bet them,
because I've got an answer for that, an easy one.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
Yeah, I mean Brooks for me, because it's like, okay.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Hitdeki Matsiyama for me.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
If that guy wins, I'm gonna lose my flipping mind
because I don't even know what to do.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
With him this week.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
There it is, poor Kelly.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
I'm att.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
Good luck on all your PGA bets.
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