March 20, 2024 • 18 mins
Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon discuss any final additions to their card for the Valspar Championship. They look for value in the first-round leader market. Also, Matt does a DFS preview for the Valspar Championship.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to the Wednesday before the first te
edition of long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the
Vson podcast Network. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin coming to you.
If you did not listen to the full episode before
you got this one, well you're going to be lost,
So head back over to the first episode.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Go and listen.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Our episodes come out on first thing Wednesday mornings, very
very early. They're the first thing in your podcast feed,
so go listen to that. This is just an update
from where we were as we were recording late on
Tuesday evening. Kelly talk some first round leader stuff here,
we'll talk any ads that maybe ended up on our
card as well, and then we can just talk some
(00:49):
if you're playing any of the big DFS contests out there,
just some of the names that were popping up in
our models that might provide at least a little bit
of value from a cost saving perspective, so you can
get to some of those big name guys. But first
and foremost, did you make any ads to your card
from an outright perspective or a placement market perspective or
anything like that.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
First of all, I like I think this is our
first time doing it and doing a second weekly one
outside of a major week. But I liked your idea
of kind of what you tease coming in. We should
we should always leave the Tuesday episode on a cliffhanger
of some kind, just so you really can't listen to
the Wednesday one without having listened to the Tuesday one before.
That's a good call. Nothing. I did make a few
(01:31):
first round leader bets here outrights, top ten, top twenty.
I believe I hit on everything yesterday. Will emphasize not many,
not a ton of outright bets for me. I talked
through top tens, and I bet on Xander and Sam
Burns yesterday. Definitely a lower bet amounts though than what
(01:52):
I hit in the top twenty market. Doug gim Aaron
Ray Keith Mitchell in the top twenties are definitely my
biggest bets of the week, along with the tournament matchups
I made Tony Feenaw Oversung j m There, Doug gim Over,
Christian bozeten Hout. Those are the only two I actually
thought I was gonna be adding one or two matchups
(02:14):
today as we had more books around Vegas open up
open up tournament matchups of course, you know, yeah, twenty
four hours before the tournament. Thank god they're up. But
you know, a couple of shops that opened them to today, Matt,
I didn't really see any others I thought were worth
adding there.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Unfortunately, the only thing I did add if you listen
to the to the Main podcast, I was trying to
make a decision between Nick Taylor and Andrew Novak, and
I was just like, listen. Ultimately, I just wasn't comfortable
with the price you had to pay for Nick Taylor.
It is so incredibly low, and so I chose Andrew
Novak to go with this week. Might get some exposure
(02:50):
to Nick Taylor in maybe the first round leader market,
maybe in a grouping market, maybe top Canadian market or
something like that, but.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Ultimate Nick Taylor at thirty.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Something to one just doesn't feel right with me, and
I couldn't get there, and so for me ended up
going with Novak, who if you look in the models, honestly,
Kelly not they're not really separated by that much at
all in the models. For me for where I at,
where the where Novac was showing up, and where Taylor was,
and then honestly, the the things that I'm looking at
(03:24):
from like, Okay, what am I looking for this week?
Right Like we're looking for approach, We're looking for you know,
these these various these keys that we find to all
of this, And honestly, Novak was kind of like right
there with him anyway, and so with all of that,
I just kind of went I just kind of went
with with that. I mean, like, look, if we're talking
(03:46):
strokes gained on par fives, you know, I mean, Nick
Taylor is actually kind of sixty, like sixty seventh in
the field over the last twenty four rounds, where Novak
is forty sixth over the last twenty four rounds. So
there are even some reasons where I could justify going
towards Novak, even even outside of just the price discrepancy.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So that's where that's where I ended up landing.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
I know that I kind of left that as a
as a question mark yesterday, but I'm gonna I did
make the decision there, and Andrew Novak gets my final
little bit of love here this week over over Nick Taylor.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
See there there was there was the Tuesday teas to
the Wednesday episode. Right, yeah, you're right it was. It
was a decision you were thinking of Nick Taylor. I mean,
I feel like we talked a lot about him actually
on the Friday episode, right, Like, I there's some about
Nick Taylor, I really like, I feel like I never
bet the guy, but he's I feel like I'm trying
to fend him off on a weekly basis between with
(04:43):
other bets going on. So completely understand why you'd be
interested in him there. And Novak was a guy that
was he spiked more for me last week I think
actually than he did this week. He's still up there.
He's still up there and so my models, but not
enough to garner too much betting interest for me. I'll
(05:05):
tell you. The one guy whose name continues continues to
pop up there when I run different stuff is Joel Damon.
It's just, I mean, again, like he had some ridiculous
stat numbers last week, just lost a ton with the putter,
and I think it's skewing things a little bit. But
he's still the one that I'm kind of fighting myself
from adding because I haven't done that yet. I don't.
(05:27):
I'm not going to. It just hasn't put put together
enough consistently good tournaments here recently, I think for me
to really buy onto it. But it's it's kind of
interesting because I don't really know that how often I
feel like I see outliers like that that I can't
fully get my mind around, you know, I think like
the Daniel Berger wants a good example. Right, we talked
a little bit about him yesterday. Depending on how far
(05:50):
back you're drawing rounds and looking around data, right, if
that's how you're doing it, Daniel Berger, well, some of
his stuff might pop up from three years ago, so
you know, hit something that you gotta be a little
careful with, you know, David, it's more of just yeah,
he's just you know, won two tournaments where he's kind
of gone nuclear. That's kind of put him up there.
So yeah, he's the he would be the one I
(06:11):
think that I'm gonna be. I'll beat beating myself up
a little bit if he does anything. As far as
far as first round leaders go, I did play. I
played Doug gam there. I ain't even no surprise there.
But it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter Matt if I'm
looking at last thirty six, last twelve, last eight rounds.
Doug gam Is, top three, four, five, like that range.
(06:32):
Everything I'm looking at for the for me this week.
So it is first I did bet him first round leader.
I've also bet a top five first round leader on
him as well at ten to one. Fifty to one
is the first round leader price. Other ones that I
played there Brian Harmon, who I guess got autocorrected to
Brian Hartman on my sheet. Brian Harmon. I did play him.
(06:55):
I was considering adding him. I think we did talk
about him a little bit yesterday. He was a guy
that was definitely floating around there. I probably could have
probably could have made a case Dad for a bet
this week. I think I'm just gonna play m in
the first und leader market. Hope hopefully that momentum from
Sunday carries over into into Thursday. Here again, I don't
think there's too many talk a little bit about this
(07:16):
yesterday like it was. I think if there was anybody,
you know, in theory that I'd be worried about this
week from what happened at the end of last week,
it would probably be more Wyndham Clark. But of course
he's not in this event just because if he I
mean his post round, post round stuff. Man, you could
tell he was frustrated. I really thought he had it,
really thought he had it close to winning that tournament
(07:37):
and getting those puts to drop, you know, Harmon and Xander.
I mean, Xander's gotta be damn used to this by now.
You would think of some of these tournaments not going
his way. And yeah, Harmon, Harmon, I don't know for
how long he was really really in the thing. So
I'm okay, I don't really think there's gonna be any
mental side effects coming out of a Sunday round like that.
I think, if anything, he's just eating up. So did
(08:00):
bet him, and then Aaron Raie is the other I decay.
You know, we talked about him yesterday. I know all
three of us are on him in different forms. Me,
you and Wes played a played a first round leader
on him though, and then in the top twenty market
that's the only spots that I went to go bet
with the black glove. Aaron Rye.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Yeah, So for me, I did dabble just a tiny
bit in the first round leader stuff.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
And so while I will while I refuse to.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Bet Xander at this ridiculously short price outright.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Yeah, twenty two to one available out there as far
as first round leader goes, and I mean twenty two
to one for him to go out and have a
low round.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
I can.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
I can palot that, yeah, right, So so that I can,
I can paal it.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
So I will feel okay with that.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I feel pretty good from betting him there. I'm also
going to take a little piece. And I know it
seems like i'll we do is talk about Doug Gim
here lately, but I am going to go ahead and
play a little a little Doug Gim in the in
the UH in the first round leader market, and specifically
because of this Kelly. And this is just the thing.
(09:15):
I mean, I mentioned it and I just don't I
don't know if there's anything to it, but let's just
look at it this way. He played the Sony, then
the American Express, then the Farmers, then there was a
week off before the before the Waste Management, then the Mexico,
then the Cognizant, then the Players. Right, like, Doug Gim
(09:36):
has a had a very very full twenty twenty four
calendar so far, and I just don't want him to
run out of steam, right, I don't want him to
run out of gas. More than anything else, I just
don't want him to run out of gas. So like,
if I don't want to miss out, I'm making some
sort of money on this guy, if if I can
keep from it.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
So yeah, imagine it goes low Thursday, Friday and then
clodes on the weekkend. Yeah, it makes sense.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
So I did play a little bit there just to
kind of make myself not hate myself if if he
plays one good round and then the one fear that
I had, which was him like losing steam and getting
tired and whatever, actually comes into play and then it's like, oh,
you idiot, you even said it.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
You even said it.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
So just you know, had a pretty full schedule there
for Doug Gims, So just something I'm I'm going to
hedge there. So I have a Xander first round leader,
I have a Doug Gim first round leader, and then
the only other one that I do have in there,
and I don't love the price on it. But I
did play a little bit of an Adam Hadwin first
round leader. Adam Hadwin is one of those guys that
(10:42):
seems to have one good round a tournament, and if
that one good round could come in the first round,
that would be pretty sweet. So I do have him
in there when it's all sudden does so just three
first round leader bets for me, None that I feel
great about other than the Xander, because I will say this,
I mean, he is by far the best player in
this field. Yeah, and you're getting three x his outright
(11:05):
number for him to be first round leader, you know,
And of course we gotta bet these guys, you know,
I mean at books in which you're not gonna get
chopped up. And so you know, even the difference between
taking a twenty to one at a book that doesn't
chop you up as opposed to a twenty two to
one is massive. So definitely take the twenty to one
in the like ties pay full. Yeah, you know, stuff
(11:27):
out there, so just you know, be sure that you're
doing that.
Speaker 4 (11:30):
The I'll tell you, I know what. You and I
have talked about these not as much on the podcast,
but the uh I haven't had a ton of them,
frankly either. But like the top fives, they're like end
of round one, top five, Top tens. There might be
a lot of.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Value in those like that, there might be.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Yeah, you know what I mean like that, because that
is a you know, like end a round leader. You're
gonna get dead heated everywhere, right if they I mean,
if you're tied, if you're just betting that, you're gonna
get dead heated every single book you could possibly pid
at it, uh for and around here, top five, top ten,
some of these you you might some places won't won't
(12:09):
do that to you. They'll pay it, pay it full
and you and we know, especially some of these tougher
courses where it's gonna be tough to go out there
and go way, you know, way low, you might have
a bunch of guys that are actually in that kind
of top top five or tied for top five range.
So that's where I you know, I dabbled a little
bit more with GIM in that market this week. I'm
kind of interested to the experiment playing those a little
(12:31):
bit more going forward. It's it's just the only I
would say, the only reason I haven't so far is
just because you don't want to. I don't want to
sink too much. You don't want to sink too much.
You're you know, weekly weekly paincroll into the first round market.
But it's just there's so with some of the sports
book options these days, they're so great, man, and how
many bets you could make that would make sense based
(12:52):
off of what our models have. But man, at the
end of the day, you can have a thousand different
bets going.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
So lastly, guys on a A.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
From a DFS standpoint, that might be where you can
go Kelly and get some exposure to Nick Taylor and
not feel as bad about it because here's the other thing,
like you taking game theory into account, right, and so
he's he's really expensive in DFS. He costs ninety one
hundred this week, whereas a guy like Tony Fenow, who
is much more pedigreed in a much more household name,
(13:23):
costs ninety three hundred. Right, Keith Mitchell costs two hundred
dollars less at eighty nine hundred than Nick Taylor. I
can see people flipping between those guys like I would
see Keith Mitchell and Tony Fenow garnering more ownership than
Nick Taylor because you rationalize by saying, oh, Tony fen
how is only two hundred dollars more. I'll find the
two hundred dollars to play Tony Fenow, or hey, I'm
(13:45):
saving two hundred on Keith Mitchell. I'll just save the
two hundred and play Keith Mitchell's opposed to Nick Taylor.
So I think that he is one of the guys
that you can kind of target in DFS that I
think is pretty interesting this week, and it gives you
a chance to get some exposure to him without feeling
guilty paying the super low price in the betting market.
One of the other guys that did pop a little bit.
And you know, DFS scoring does reward you know, some
(14:09):
of these guys from what they're able to do, you know,
from a birdie making perspective, and Sam Ryder showed up
pretty high and a few of the different models for me.
He's down at seventy three hundred over at DraftKings this week, Kelly,
and like, you know, again he might not win the tournament.
Like sam Ryder can make birdies and like and and
so you just get you score so well for making birdies.
(14:32):
And so that is another one of the guys that
kind of pop for me from a DFS perspective, if
you want to look at and of course, if if
you listen back to the to the main pod, you'll
hear my long shot guys this week, and any of
those guys I think you could use to fill out
a DFS lineup.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
And you know, I.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Think you'll be unique because you won't be putting guys
in your lineup that everybody else is going to.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
Yeah, yeah, Rider looking back at it. So he's tenth
in my thirty six round model. I mean you're talking
about six and good drives thirty eighth and fairways gained
fourth on approach in the field, seventeenth opportunities gained. Those
are all the positives. Now he's about in the middle
of the pack. Strokes gain part five, Yeah, the long irons,
(15:14):
but you know, proximity two hundred plus a little bit
not great for him. Scrambling not great for him. So
you know, if he's putting it in the fairway and
really making this you know, fairways and green sort of thing. Yeah,
he's a guy that says he can go low. Those
are the stats and tell you he can go low.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
The other the other guy that like again is not
it's not like popping off the page for everything, but
he's super cheap and you can just hope for like
a ninetieth ninety fifth percentile outcome for him. But like,
so Carson Young, not camp Young, but Carson Young. He's
only sixty three hundred over at DraftKings, tenth in this
(15:50):
field over the last twenty four rounds of strokes gain approach.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
He is twelfth.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
In driving accuracy, he is fourth and approaches from one
hundred and seventy five to two hundred yards. So you know, hey,
look if we're looking at I mean, like he's not
terrible par five scoring, he's thirty seventh in this field.
But again, you're getting a guy that's sixty three hundred, right,
he's super super cheap. You're like rounding out your lineup
with a guy like this. Now, not great in bogey avoidance,
(16:14):
not great yea, not all that. But again we're we're
just we're trying to play the.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
Peak the only way you're looking for high end value.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Yeah, the only the only way you're winning a DFS tournament.
It's like you have to have this, you have to
have your guy run here now he has Yeah, he's
got to go in his ninety fifth percentile outcome. And
so with that, I think that there's there's something to
be said for him as well. So again, guys, that's
who we're looking at for first round leaders. Any bets
that we added, maybe from a DFS perspective, you're looking
to kind of round out your lineups.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Those are some guys that maybe you could.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Throw in there on the cheap and and maybe hope
for you know, again, we're just hoping for kind of
that ninetieth ninety fifth percentile outcome, and if that's the case,
then your other studs that you're able to fit in
by putting those cheap dudes in there should be able
to carry your lineup from there. Kelly, You know, listen,
I consider and say my favorite bet of the week
is just all things you know Doug him. So, I mean,
(17:07):
I don't really think we need to go there, but
it's just, uh, he really did just destroy the model
for me this week. I mean like just just like
I said, number one and two of the three that
I ran and only fifth in the other one. So
it's just the dude was just really lighting it up
for me.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Yeah, I've got him basically scattered everywhere as well.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
I have to. I think it's great.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
I mean, for a lot of golf betterers out there
I know who have been betting dug him and probably
losing money over the past you know, year and a half,
two years or whatever. He's been down with him. It's
nice that you're finally seeing some return on your long
standing investment because it's been five straight Top twenties. I
do think that's the market. I'd probably focus the most
on it with him. The Top twenties tournament matchups love
(17:49):
him this week, but have you know loved in the
past few weeks that he's teed it up as well,
So so hopefully he can go out there and be
nice him win one of these that'd be really cool.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Well.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
Full card available over at vson dot com slash picks.
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Speaker 3 (18:17):
For Kelly, I am mad. Good luck on all your
vals bar bets
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to the Wednesday before the first te
edition of long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the
Vson podcast Network. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin coming to you.
If you did not listen to the full episode before
you got this one, well you're going to be lost,
So head back over to the first episode.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Go and listen.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Our episodes come out on first thing Wednesday mornings, very
very early. They're the first thing in your podcast feed,
so go listen to that. This is just an update
from where we were as we were recording late on
Tuesday evening. Kelly talk some first round leader stuff here,
we'll talk any ads that maybe ended up on our
card as well, and then we can just talk some
(00:49):
if you're playing any of the big DFS contests out there,
just some of the names that were popping up in
our models that might provide at least a little bit
of value from a cost saving perspective, so you can
get to some of those big name guys. But first
and foremost, did you make any ads to your card
from an outright perspective or a placement market perspective or
anything like that.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
First of all, I like I think this is our
first time doing it and doing a second weekly one
outside of a major week. But I liked your idea
of kind of what you tease coming in. We should
we should always leave the Tuesday episode on a cliffhanger
of some kind, just so you really can't listen to
the Wednesday one without having listened to the Tuesday one before.
That's a good call. Nothing. I did make a few
(01:31):
first round leader bets here outrights, top ten, top twenty.
I believe I hit on everything yesterday. Will emphasize not many,
not a ton of outright bets for me. I talked
through top tens, and I bet on Xander and Sam
Burns yesterday. Definitely a lower bet amounts though than what
(01:52):
I hit in the top twenty market. Doug gim Aaron
Ray Keith Mitchell in the top twenties are definitely my
biggest bets of the week, along with the tournament matchups
I made Tony Feenaw Oversung j m There, Doug gim Over,
Christian bozeten Hout. Those are the only two I actually
thought I was gonna be adding one or two matchups
(02:14):
today as we had more books around Vegas open up
open up tournament matchups of course, you know, yeah, twenty
four hours before the tournament. Thank god they're up. But
you know, a couple of shops that opened them to today, Matt,
I didn't really see any others I thought were worth
adding there.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Unfortunately, the only thing I did add if you listen
to the to the Main podcast, I was trying to
make a decision between Nick Taylor and Andrew Novak, and
I was just like, listen. Ultimately, I just wasn't comfortable
with the price you had to pay for Nick Taylor.
It is so incredibly low, and so I chose Andrew
Novak to go with this week. Might get some exposure
(02:50):
to Nick Taylor in maybe the first round leader market,
maybe in a grouping market, maybe top Canadian market or
something like that, but.
Speaker 3 (02:59):
Ultimate Nick Taylor at thirty.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Something to one just doesn't feel right with me, and
I couldn't get there, and so for me ended up
going with Novak, who if you look in the models, honestly,
Kelly not they're not really separated by that much at
all in the models. For me for where I at,
where the where Novac was showing up, and where Taylor was,
and then honestly, the the things that I'm looking at
(03:24):
from like, Okay, what am I looking for this week?
Right Like we're looking for approach, We're looking for you know,
these these various these keys that we find to all
of this, And honestly, Novak was kind of like right
there with him anyway, and so with all of that,
I just kind of went I just kind of went
with with that. I mean, like, look, if we're talking
(03:46):
strokes gained on par fives, you know, I mean, Nick
Taylor is actually kind of sixty, like sixty seventh in
the field over the last twenty four rounds, where Novak
is forty sixth over the last twenty four rounds. So
there are even some reasons where I could justify going
towards Novak, even even outside of just the price discrepancy.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
So that's where that's where I ended up landing.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
I know that I kind of left that as a
as a question mark yesterday, but I'm gonna I did
make the decision there, and Andrew Novak gets my final
little bit of love here this week over over Nick Taylor.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
See there there was there was the Tuesday teas to
the Wednesday episode. Right, yeah, you're right it was. It
was a decision you were thinking of Nick Taylor. I mean,
I feel like we talked a lot about him actually
on the Friday episode, right, Like, I there's some about
Nick Taylor, I really like, I feel like I never
bet the guy, but he's I feel like I'm trying
to fend him off on a weekly basis between with
(04:43):
other bets going on. So completely understand why you'd be
interested in him there. And Novak was a guy that
was he spiked more for me last week I think
actually than he did this week. He's still up there.
He's still up there and so my models, but not
enough to garner too much betting interest for me. I'll
(05:05):
tell you. The one guy whose name continues continues to
pop up there when I run different stuff is Joel Damon.
It's just, I mean, again, like he had some ridiculous
stat numbers last week, just lost a ton with the putter,
and I think it's skewing things a little bit. But
he's still the one that I'm kind of fighting myself
from adding because I haven't done that yet. I don't.
(05:27):
I'm not going to. It just hasn't put put together
enough consistently good tournaments here recently, I think for me
to really buy onto it. But it's it's kind of
interesting because I don't really know that how often I
feel like I see outliers like that that I can't
fully get my mind around, you know, I think like
the Daniel Berger wants a good example. Right, we talked
a little bit about him yesterday. Depending on how far
(05:50):
back you're drawing rounds and looking around data, right, if
that's how you're doing it, Daniel Berger, well, some of
his stuff might pop up from three years ago, so
you know, hit something that you gotta be a little
careful with, you know, David, it's more of just yeah,
he's just you know, won two tournaments where he's kind
of gone nuclear. That's kind of put him up there.
So yeah, he's the he would be the one I
(06:11):
think that I'm gonna be. I'll beat beating myself up
a little bit if he does anything. As far as
far as first round leaders go, I did play. I
played Doug gam there. I ain't even no surprise there.
But it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter Matt if I'm
looking at last thirty six, last twelve, last eight rounds.
Doug gam Is, top three, four, five, like that range.
(06:32):
Everything I'm looking at for the for me this week.
So it is first I did bet him first round leader.
I've also bet a top five first round leader on
him as well at ten to one. Fifty to one
is the first round leader price. Other ones that I
played there Brian Harmon, who I guess got autocorrected to
Brian Hartman on my sheet. Brian Harmon. I did play him.
(06:55):
I was considering adding him. I think we did talk
about him a little bit yesterday. He was a guy
that was definitely floating around there. I probably could have
probably could have made a case Dad for a bet
this week. I think I'm just gonna play m in
the first und leader market. Hope hopefully that momentum from
Sunday carries over into into Thursday. Here again, I don't
think there's too many talk a little bit about this
(07:16):
yesterday like it was. I think if there was anybody,
you know, in theory that I'd be worried about this
week from what happened at the end of last week,
it would probably be more Wyndham Clark. But of course
he's not in this event just because if he I
mean his post round, post round stuff. Man, you could
tell he was frustrated. I really thought he had it,
really thought he had it close to winning that tournament
(07:37):
and getting those puts to drop, you know, Harmon and Xander.
I mean, Xander's gotta be damn used to this by now.
You would think of some of these tournaments not going
his way. And yeah, Harmon, Harmon, I don't know for
how long he was really really in the thing. So
I'm okay, I don't really think there's gonna be any
mental side effects coming out of a Sunday round like that.
I think, if anything, he's just eating up. So did
(08:00):
bet him, and then Aaron Raie is the other I decay.
You know, we talked about him yesterday. I know all
three of us are on him in different forms. Me,
you and Wes played a played a first round leader
on him though, and then in the top twenty market
that's the only spots that I went to go bet
with the black glove. Aaron Rye.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Yeah, So for me, I did dabble just a tiny
bit in the first round leader stuff.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
And so while I will while I refuse to.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
Bet Xander at this ridiculously short price outright.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Yeah, twenty two to one available out there as far
as first round leader goes, and I mean twenty two
to one for him to go out and have a
low round.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
I can.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
I can palot that, yeah, right, So so that I can,
I can paal it.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
So I will feel okay with that.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I feel pretty good from betting him there. I'm also
going to take a little piece. And I know it
seems like i'll we do is talk about Doug Gim
here lately, but I am going to go ahead and
play a little a little Doug Gim in the in
the UH in the first round leader market, and specifically
because of this Kelly. And this is just the thing.
(09:15):
I mean, I mentioned it and I just don't I
don't know if there's anything to it, but let's just
look at it this way. He played the Sony, then
the American Express, then the Farmers, then there was a
week off before the before the Waste Management, then the Mexico,
then the Cognizant, then the Players. Right, like, Doug Gim
(09:36):
has a had a very very full twenty twenty four
calendar so far, and I just don't want him to
run out of steam, right, I don't want him to
run out of gas. More than anything else, I just
don't want him to run out of gas. So like,
if I don't want to miss out, I'm making some
sort of money on this guy, if if I can
keep from it.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
So yeah, imagine it goes low Thursday, Friday and then
clodes on the weekkend. Yeah, it makes sense.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
So I did play a little bit there just to
kind of make myself not hate myself if if he
plays one good round and then the one fear that
I had, which was him like losing steam and getting
tired and whatever, actually comes into play and then it's like, oh,
you idiot, you even said it.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
You even said it.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
So just you know, had a pretty full schedule there
for Doug Gims, So just something I'm I'm going to
hedge there. So I have a Xander first round leader,
I have a Doug Gim first round leader, and then
the only other one that I do have in there,
and I don't love the price on it. But I
did play a little bit of an Adam Hadwin first
round leader. Adam Hadwin is one of those guys that
(10:42):
seems to have one good round a tournament, and if
that one good round could come in the first round,
that would be pretty sweet. So I do have him
in there when it's all sudden does so just three
first round leader bets for me, None that I feel
great about other than the Xander, because I will say this,
I mean, he is by far the best player in
this field. Yeah, and you're getting three x his outright
(11:05):
number for him to be first round leader, you know,
And of course we gotta bet these guys, you know,
I mean at books in which you're not gonna get
chopped up. And so you know, even the difference between
taking a twenty to one at a book that doesn't
chop you up as opposed to a twenty two to
one is massive. So definitely take the twenty to one
in the like ties pay full. Yeah, you know, stuff
(11:27):
out there, so just you know, be sure that you're
doing that.
Speaker 4 (11:30):
The I'll tell you, I know what. You and I
have talked about these not as much on the podcast,
but the uh I haven't had a ton of them,
frankly either. But like the top fives, they're like end
of round one, top five, Top tens. There might be
a lot of.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Value in those like that, there might be.
Speaker 4 (11:47):
Yeah, you know what I mean like that, because that
is a you know, like end a round leader. You're
gonna get dead heated everywhere, right if they I mean,
if you're tied, if you're just betting that, you're gonna
get dead heated every single book you could possibly pid
at it, uh for and around here, top five, top ten,
some of these you you might some places won't won't
(12:09):
do that to you. They'll pay it, pay it full
and you and we know, especially some of these tougher
courses where it's gonna be tough to go out there
and go way, you know, way low, you might have
a bunch of guys that are actually in that kind
of top top five or tied for top five range.
So that's where I you know, I dabbled a little
bit more with GIM in that market this week. I'm
kind of interested to the experiment playing those a little
(12:31):
bit more going forward. It's it's just the only I
would say, the only reason I haven't so far is
just because you don't want to. I don't want to
sink too much. You don't want to sink too much.
You're you know, weekly weekly paincroll into the first round market.
But it's just there's so with some of the sports
book options these days, they're so great, man, and how
many bets you could make that would make sense based
(12:52):
off of what our models have. But man, at the
end of the day, you can have a thousand different
bets going.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
So lastly, guys on a A.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
From a DFS standpoint, that might be where you can
go Kelly and get some exposure to Nick Taylor and
not feel as bad about it because here's the other thing,
like you taking game theory into account, right, and so
he's he's really expensive in DFS. He costs ninety one
hundred this week, whereas a guy like Tony Fenow, who
is much more pedigreed in a much more household name,
(13:23):
costs ninety three hundred. Right, Keith Mitchell costs two hundred
dollars less at eighty nine hundred than Nick Taylor. I
can see people flipping between those guys like I would
see Keith Mitchell and Tony Fenow garnering more ownership than
Nick Taylor because you rationalize by saying, oh, Tony fen
how is only two hundred dollars more. I'll find the
two hundred dollars to play Tony Fenow, or hey, I'm
(13:45):
saving two hundred on Keith Mitchell. I'll just save the
two hundred and play Keith Mitchell's opposed to Nick Taylor.
So I think that he is one of the guys
that you can kind of target in DFS that I
think is pretty interesting this week, and it gives you
a chance to get some exposure to him without feeling
guilty paying the super low price in the betting market.
One of the other guys that did pop a little bit.
And you know, DFS scoring does reward you know, some
(14:09):
of these guys from what they're able to do, you know,
from a birdie making perspective, and Sam Ryder showed up
pretty high and a few of the different models for me.
He's down at seventy three hundred over at DraftKings this week, Kelly,
and like, you know, again he might not win the tournament.
Like sam Ryder can make birdies and like and and
so you just get you score so well for making birdies.
(14:32):
And so that is another one of the guys that
kind of pop for me from a DFS perspective, if
you want to look at and of course, if if
you listen back to the to the main pod, you'll
hear my long shot guys this week, and any of
those guys I think you could use to fill out
a DFS lineup.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
And you know, I.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Think you'll be unique because you won't be putting guys
in your lineup that everybody else is going to.
Speaker 4 (14:54):
Yeah, yeah, Rider looking back at it. So he's tenth
in my thirty six round model. I mean you're talking
about six and good drives thirty eighth and fairways gained
fourth on approach in the field, seventeenth opportunities gained. Those
are all the positives. Now he's about in the middle
of the pack. Strokes gain part five, Yeah, the long irons,
(15:14):
but you know, proximity two hundred plus a little bit
not great for him. Scrambling not great for him. So
you know, if he's putting it in the fairway and
really making this you know, fairways and green sort of thing. Yeah,
he's a guy that says he can go low. Those
are the stats and tell you he can go low.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
The other the other guy that like again is not
it's not like popping off the page for everything, but
he's super cheap and you can just hope for like
a ninetieth ninety fifth percentile outcome for him. But like,
so Carson Young, not camp Young, but Carson Young. He's
only sixty three hundred over at DraftKings, tenth in this
(15:50):
field over the last twenty four rounds of strokes gain approach.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
He is twelfth.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
In driving accuracy, he is fourth and approaches from one
hundred and seventy five to two hundred yards. So you know, hey,
look if we're looking at I mean, like he's not
terrible par five scoring, he's thirty seventh in this field.
But again, you're getting a guy that's sixty three hundred, right,
he's super super cheap. You're like rounding out your lineup
with a guy like this. Now, not great in bogey avoidance,
(16:14):
not great yea, not all that. But again we're we're
just we're trying to play the.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
Peak the only way you're looking for high end value.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Yeah, the only the only way you're winning a DFS tournament.
It's like you have to have this, you have to
have your guy run here now he has Yeah, he's
got to go in his ninety fifth percentile outcome. And
so with that, I think that there's there's something to
be said for him as well. So again, guys, that's
who we're looking at for first round leaders. Any bets
that we added, maybe from a DFS perspective, you're looking
to kind of round out your lineups.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Those are some guys that maybe you could.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Throw in there on the cheap and and maybe hope
for you know, again, we're just hoping for kind of
that ninetieth ninety fifth percentile outcome, and if that's the case,
then your other studs that you're able to fit in
by putting those cheap dudes in there should be able
to carry your lineup from there. Kelly, You know, listen,
I consider and say my favorite bet of the week
is just all things you know Doug him. So, I mean,
(17:07):
I don't really think we need to go there, but
it's just, uh, he really did just destroy the model
for me this week. I mean like just just like
I said, number one and two of the three that
I ran and only fifth in the other one. So
it's just the dude was just really lighting it up
for me.
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Yeah, I've got him basically scattered everywhere as well.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
I have to. I think it's great.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
I mean, for a lot of golf betterers out there
I know who have been betting dug him and probably
losing money over the past you know, year and a half,
two years or whatever. He's been down with him. It's
nice that you're finally seeing some return on your long
standing investment because it's been five straight Top twenties. I
do think that's the market. I'd probably focus the most
on it with him. The Top twenties tournament matchups love
(17:49):
him this week, but have you know loved in the
past few weeks that he's teed it up as well,
So so hopefully he can go out there and be
nice him win one of these that'd be really cool.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Well.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
Full card available over at vson dot com slash picks.
If you have not become an annual subscriber yet, you
want to go ahead and do that. Hey, we're heading
into March Madness as well, so you're gonna get a
really good bang for your buck. Use promo code golf
g O l F and with that we're going to
save you forty one dollars off of your annual subscription
as well.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
For Kelly, I am mad. Good luck on all your
vals bar bets
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