Best bets for the Valero Texas Open with The Masters looming

Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds preview the Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio. It's the event before The Masters. Which players will be using the tournament more for preparation for The Masters? The guys give their course breakdown and stats that matter. Also, their best bets for the tournament.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here
on the Vson Podcast Network. Matt Brown, Westerns Kelly Biblin
coming to you for the Valero Texas Open at the
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course. We will get into all
of the statistics, of course, breakdown what we put into
our models and what our models spit out. But boys,

(00:32):
I thank you for holding down the ship last week
and getting some picks and a podcast out there. We
see Scottie Scheffler somehow find a way to not win,
although he was right there till the very very end. Kelly,
if you look at this, it's a it. We'll talk
a ton about this as we head into the Masters.

(00:53):
We're gonna have a special Master show over on the network.
We're gonna have a Master's betting primer that you can
go get over on vson dot com this very week.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
But now, yeah, up now, probably.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
By the time you hear this, but it's it's one
of those things where you just look at this and yeah,
he didn't win, but he was literally right there yet again,
and and you know, we kind of joked about it,
I think about a month ago here on the podcast.
But like these Winner Without Markets with Scottie Scheffler, they're
gonna be up for the Masters, and I'm I'm depending

(01:26):
on the price difference and depending on the payout, I
would not talk someone off the ledge so long as
it wasn't just cutting your payout massively. Because the way
that this guy's it it. You know, I've had people
poke fun at me because of the stuff that I've
said on my shows about this is a historic run.
Like I think everyone wants to put Tiger in this

(01:47):
like in this, in this like stratus here all of
us all alone, where Tiger had about three or four
different dudes that he really battled it out with during
that like epic run of his. Whereas there are thirty
different guy if not forty different guys that can go
out and tee it up and win it on the
PGA Tour right now because they all learned from Tiger.

(02:07):
They all work out, and they all got strong, and
they all can hit it long, and they all like
they all learned from Tiger, and so it's it's one
of those deals where you know, with Scotti Scheffler, I'm
if someone tells me they would have bet him every
single event, I mean, so be it like, I'm not
gonna tell him not to.

Speaker 4 (02:22):
Yeah, I mean it was. It was top tens.

Speaker 5 (02:24):
I was betting top tens on him every single week
until that got too juicy. Last week at minus two
seventy five he had delay for a top tame.

Speaker 3 (02:30):
You'd have cast it. Yeah, yeah, you know.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
Like you said, I mean that is all I bet
last week.

Speaker 5 (02:36):
But the only you know, quote unquote outrights that I
bet were in the Winner Winner without Scotti shif Market,
I didn't get any of those home. Congratulations Wes Reynolds
for hitting Stevin Yeger nine pars in a row. It's
all you need to get done with the fact.

Speaker 4 (02:52):
But it did.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Yeah, Jaeger bomb. Look I was looking too.

Speaker 6 (02:56):
I was like, Okay, I'm this is probably gonna go
to the playoff and I'm gonna have to lay Scottie
Scheffler in a prize just to like make a little
bit of something out of this thing. But you know,
kept waiting for all these other guys to go away.
Alejandro Toasty was lurking Taylor Moore was lurking David Skins,
but it looked like it was coming down to Yeger

(03:17):
and Scheffler, and then Scheffler misses that, you know, just
outside five foot her. Yeah, and ste Steven Jeger with
nine straight pars And this is a guy that's kind
of been one of those perseverance guys where it's like
he's kind of been in the mix, but he's never
been able to get at home. I think it was
one hundred and thirty five starts and he is finally
a PGA Tour winner.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
So congratulations to Yeager. He will be in the Masters
next week.

Speaker 3 (03:41):
And congratulations to Steven Yeger as well.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Because if you're asked would have got in a playoff,
you would not have won it.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yeah, That's why I was like, Okay, hits a mid
on Scheffler.

Speaker 6 (03:52):
He's probably gonna be laying like a dollar fifty or
a dollar sixty at bare minimum before they even hit
a t shot, because yeah, look he got right there.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
He needed him to miss, him to miss that putt,
and uh uh.

Speaker 6 (04:03):
Jager got it home. So uh, pretty good tournament down
in Houston for us.

Speaker 5 (04:08):
Yeah, Matt, I was I was sitting there were top
twenty and top forty bets on Yeager, and I'm like,
I'm watching that whole back nine think to myself, there
is no way this guy is holding on. I feel
so bad for Wes right now. This is gonna suck.
There's like eight guys in the mix here. There's no
way Yeager's gonna hold on to this league. And then
like and then it like happened, and I'm just like, well, crap.

(04:28):
I wish I would have betted out right on him.

Speaker 6 (04:31):
On my television was on delay, by the way, because
I'm looking at a couple of different sites where it
flashes the price and obviously updates where it's ahead. That
feed is ahead of most televisions if you're on satellite
or direct TV for delay. And then all of a sudden,
I saw it disappear and I didn't see a price.
So this was like maybe ten seconds before Scotty hit
the putt, and I was like, okay, what happened here

(04:53):
right right? And it was like, oh my god, he
missed it.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
I mean and like, and you know, Scotti Scheffer, poor Scotty.
He leaves with only five hundred and fifty three thousand
dollars this week, don't I don't know. Yeah, I don't
know how he's going to get by. It probably felt
so weird not holding a trophy up whenever he finished
a tournament or whatever. But yeah, he'll be. He has
the odds on Betty Favorites head of the Masters, and
for good reason. We'll talk a ton of Scottie Scheffler

(05:20):
as we head into next week. But this week here,
our final tune up before the Masters is the Valero
Texas Open over at TPC San Antonio Oaks Course, Wes.
As we look at this course, it is a course
that a lot of times we look at these TPC
courses and certainly the course snobs out there will kind
of turn their nose up and say like, oh, these
courses are so boring, and TPC doesn't do anything interesting

(05:44):
with these courses, et cetera, et cetera. But you do
get some of these guys now talking about this, specifically
this Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, and you do
start to get a little bit of love from these guys.
They do say that, hey, this is a pretty stern
test for these dudes, and specifically if the wind is
blowing things can get a little wacky out there. For

(06:04):
this course, it is tree line. There are strategic bunkers
that are placed, you know, that are pretty deep in
front of greens and things. And so as far as
the TPC courses that we play on tour each and
every year, we don't get as many people going like
another birdie fest, you know, it's like this is another
putting contest. They actually respect this course here and as
you as you kind of dug in, I think that

(06:25):
you probably found the same.

Speaker 2 (06:27):
Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 6 (06:27):
And look, I'm not wont to want to compliment Greg
Norman very often on anything, but this is actually a
good design that he has here. It's played at a
little bit of elevation, surprisingly enough, when I was kind
of just looking through, Okay, you know, what are the
different surfaces? What is the agronomy here? It's paid actually
at like eleven hundred feet of elevation. Not a ton

(06:51):
of bunkers here and not a ton of water danger holes.
But it's pretty narrow in terms of on the narrow
side for fairways about twenty eight yards on average. With
it is rye and fescue. The greens are or poa
overseed poetry of overseed, and so yeah, this is an
interesting test, and it is predicated, as you pointed out, Matt,
in terms of wind because some of the winning scores

(07:14):
you will see here like eight under, nine under, ten under,
eleven under, but it can be scored upon if there's
no win, like Corey Connors did in twenty nineteen twenty
under par. By the way, Connor is a defending champion,
so he's won here twice in five years.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
But it is a pretty good test.

Speaker 6 (07:31):
It's not an exact facsimile of Augusta because the greens
are pretty slow eleven on the stamp, whereas Augusta they're
gonna be like thirteen thirteen and a half and they're
pure slick bent grass greens. So you know, so it's
not the exact vacsimile, but I think it is going
to be a decent test. And then you you know,
a lot of people are gonna use the term tune

(07:51):
up in terms of this field this week, and I'll
let you go ahead and break down the field guys,
But a lot of the guys that are at the
top here are guys that have not exactly played great
here in twenty twenty four, that have had their moments,
but have been pretty darn inconsistent when you look at
the shorter odd guys on the board.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
Now, absolutely really tough par fives here as well on
this course where it's you know you're gonna need to
score on them, but still like they're pretty tough. Some
of the toughest collection of par fives on tour. And
you kind of see some of the stuff where these greens,
depending on the wind, can get to be pretty to
or they're not very receptive because they can dry out
pretty good. And I think the approach game, obviously is

(08:30):
something that we'll be emphasizing on a ton as we
get into the model and the breakdown here. But Kelly,
as we look the odds board, Roy McElroy is your
favorite at nine to one, Ludvig is your second shot
at twelve to one, and then we go all the
way to speak and HEADECI at twenty to one, twenty two,
with Max Matt Fitzpatrick at twenty five, as is Corey Connors,

(08:51):
as is Colin Morikawa. Then we get into the thirty
range with Benny On, Alex Norrin, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English
at thirty five, Brian Harmon at thirty five, Billy Horsell
thirty five, everybody else forty to one or longer, and
I'm you know, listen, I can't speak for you guys.

Speaker 3 (09:05):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
We don't talk about our cards before Hanks, so we
don't want to influence each other. But I don't guess
anybody's gonna have Rory on their card this week from
an outright perspective, Rory at nine to one, Kelly, I,
I just don't know if it's deserving really at this point.
I'm I'm looking at a guy who's really really struggling
to put together four rounds, and so is he the

(09:27):
most talented, like physically gall you know whatever? Yeah, yeah,
I mean I guess maybe we could argue at this point.
Ludwig is right there with him, but I can't get
to nine to one. And I gotta be honest with you.
If the price was even at Ludwig at twelve or whatever, like,
I still don't think he'd make my card.

Speaker 4 (09:43):
Yeah, yeah, I don't think.

Speaker 5 (09:44):
I don't think he would either if he was that price,
you know, as Wes was alluding to, I don't really
know that we're gonna get We often worry, you know,
sometimes before majors about what these guys are gonna look
like competitive? Why is they really gonna enter this tournament
looking to win it? Or they were can fine tune
and something. I mean, there's a bunch of guys at
the top of this board that have not had very

(10:05):
good form to start this season.

Speaker 4 (10:07):
That yeah, they I think this. I think we should
expect a very competitive tournament this week with.

Speaker 5 (10:13):
A lot of those guys needing to get into form
and get get into form really quick here before next week.
So if you're a Rory McElroy, a Max Homa, Colin Morikawa,
Tommy Fleetwood, these are the guys that I mean, she's
how many times have we said their names on this
podcast betting over the past couple of years, and they've
They've all been pretty terrible here to start. So no,

(10:35):
I hear you on Rory, I couldn't get there. I
wouldn't get there, you know, regardless. I don't even know
what his number would have to be for me to battle.
Actually we're talking sixteen to one.

Speaker 6 (10:45):
Bro. Yeah, this isn't like the Scottish Open either, were
he won obviously the week before the Open Championship last year,
where it's like, Okay, he makes total sense at the
Scottish Open or something like that, and he has played
well the week before major.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
But Rory's kind of tried different things over the years.

Speaker 6 (11:01):
He's tried the Tiger approach where it's like, no, I'm
gonna work on my game at Windemere wherever he works
on it, whereas Phil Mickelson always liked to play the
week before the major. So, yeah, you have a really
good field here, but with the guys that aren't a
lot of form, and it kind of, you know, clashes
with a real trend here because this is the best
field we've had at the Valero in years. Eight of

(11:21):
the last eleven Valero or events, i should say the
Valero and then when the Houston opened was the week
before the Masters, eight of the last eleven were won
by a player who was not in the field at
the Masters. So this is the last chance for these
guys to get in the Masters. And then of the
last twelve winner, six won a PGA Tour event for
the first time. We saw that a couple of years

(11:42):
ago at JJ spond saw it with Corey Connors Andrew Landry,
so a few of the winners here, so the good field,
you know, really clashes with the long term trends here
of you know, a lot of these guys that aren't
the masters, they're going to be trying to get in here.
They're not here for a tune up. They're trying to
just get us in the field.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
Yeah, and I look at like, you know, roryans specific
you know, you look and yeah, the one thing you
can kind of point to with him is the driver.
But the only problem with all of this is like
when he misses with the driver, he misses really big, right,
And so the problem here, while the rough isn't all
that penal, if you get further than that little cutter up,
it can be death. I mean, there's you know, obviously

(12:23):
there's the infamous thing about the sixteen and stuff from
from a few years ago, and all a bit like
that's like Rory's miss is a bad mess. Like Rory's
either like awesome three hundred and forty eight yards down
the dead ass center or it's a bad miss, and
a bad miss here can basically put you out of
contention in one hole. And so that's the other thing

(12:44):
that presents a bunch of pause for me about Rory
and you know there's we'll talk about a little bit later.
I mean I have I've kind of attacked him here
in head to heads and things like that for this
tournament because I don't know if this even actually fits
him all that great. And if he is, if there's
anyone out there though that would use this as a
tinker tournament, it would be Rory, right Like.

Speaker 3 (13:05):
I don't like of any of these dudes.

Speaker 1 (13:07):
If there's anyone out there who's going to be like,
you know what, I'm going to be working on this
and I don't care if I make the cut or not,
because if I don't have this when I head to Augusta,
I have zero.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
Chance, right like. And if there's anyone, it would be Rory.

Speaker 6 (13:19):
And it's the one thing too obviously at Augusta that
he has not done in his career, which is win
the Masters. You know, he's been trying to win the
career Grand Slam since twenty fifteen because of course won
the twenty fourteen PGA Championship with Valhalla. So that's all
he cares about. And I know he was half joking
about this, but he has talked about it like, yeah,

(13:39):
if I win this, man, I might just retire, and
I know he's half joking but maybe a little bit
partially serious, because that tells you that's all he's focused
on right now, and that's all he should be focused on.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
Yeah, I agree. So it's just to me, there's just
so many things pointing agains him. Like I said, if
he's infinitely rich a ton of times, he doesn't need
to win this turn. Like it's if there's anybody who
I think would actually go out there and just want
to have two competitive rounds of tinkering, I could see
it being Rory. So another reason for me to be

(14:13):
on the fade with him. We'll talk about our model
stuff here in a second of the guys. If you
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(14:33):
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subscribe promo code Golf. All right, Kelly, let's talk about

(14:54):
what you found important this week, what you plugged into
your models, because there are some people out there that
I do know want to kind of wait their bottles
at least somewhat similarly to what we're looking at here.
So what did you like, What did you not like
that some maybe some of the other people did, And
what did you wait more heavily maybe than some people did.

Speaker 4 (15:12):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (15:12):
Interesting, course, as you guys were talking about it's it's
really not one. I was kind of looking back early.
Not a tournament I've had a ton of betting success
at in the past, But you know, I like this.

Speaker 4 (15:23):
I like this tournament.

Speaker 5 (15:23):
Obviously, the couple wins by Corey Connor's really stick out
over the years.

Speaker 4 (15:29):
I think it's an interesting setup.

Speaker 3 (15:30):
I really do.

Speaker 5 (15:31):
I like that when we get a little bit just
slightly different setups, you guys are talking about the off
the tee stuff. It's always very interesting here. I mean,
you're talking about what is the third the third.

Speaker 4 (15:42):
Most double bogies on tour right.

Speaker 5 (15:45):
At this tournament, only behind the players and the Honda
are cognizant. So yeah, like you were talking about, Matt,
you can't be spraying it off the tea, but at
the same time, like you can kind of bomb it
down there as long as you're not too.

Speaker 4 (15:56):
Far off the fairway.

Speaker 5 (15:58):
So looked at some good draft goods and driving distance,
plug that stuff stuff in, and then heavy on approach stats,
approach and proximity buckets, Uh, shorter, shorter proximity. I looked
at shorter iron play just from a lot of these
you guys kind of hit on it. The par fives
he gotta score on, but a lot of these poor
fives are gonna be too long for these guys to
attack in two shots. So actually looked at some lower

(16:20):
range of proximity stuff opportunities gained. Uh par fives, par fives,
probably weighed them as heavy as I will all year
that this is again this we're talking about scoring on
the the toughest par fives on tour. But There's only
two two holes on this course that aren't part part
fives that actually average under par. So you gotta score

(16:41):
on these no matter how hard they are if you're
gonna win this thing. So par fives really facted those
in heavily, as heavily as I will for any tournament,
probably U and then a mix of sand saves around
the green, scrambling. There is heavy bunkers around the green here,
like you were talking about before, Matt, you can get
into trouble off the t too, you might where the
scrambling might need to take over a bit. And then

(17:04):
just bogey avoidance overall. On a course like this, it
only has three three water danger holes. There's really not
a lot of water that you could find here, so
just keeping it in the fairway and on the greens,
trying your best to do that is where you're gonna
find success.

Speaker 4 (17:17):
And I kind of went no putter this week.

Speaker 5 (17:19):
You didn't really look at much putting putting stats at all,
so that was that was everything for me.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
Yeah, team no putt for me this week as well,
and Kelly I did the same thing. So I really
rarely ever will put like fifty to one hundred into
my model or like you know, to one hundred and
twenty five or something. But I actually not only put
it in this week, but waited it fairly heavily because
if if these guys are not and the vast majority

(17:45):
of the field is not going to get to these
in two, there are gonna be some guys that can.

Speaker 3 (17:48):
It's gonna be two hundred and fifty plus yard approaches.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
They're gonna be able to hit their three woods or
five woods and they're gonna be able to get there.
But most of these guys are not going to take
that route, and most of them are gonna lay it up,
you know, to that one hundred hundred and twenty five
to have some sort of short wedge in and try
to be able to score on it. And with that,
I emphasize that a lot this week. And so and Wes,
I know as you probably did your research, you saw

(18:11):
the same things that we did where the the correlation
to driving distance hasn't really equaled like winning here at
this at this course, but also the field has never
been this strong. And so I I did put total
driving into mind, and I did like wait it because
like for me, if I still want someone that is
going to be able to have a leg up on

(18:32):
the rest of the field.

Speaker 3 (18:33):
And like you know, in the past, because there was
only two or three.

Speaker 1 (18:36):
Top guys in it, it, I can see why it
wasn't it wasn't correlated or something. But now this feels
much much deeper this year, and so I'm just deducing
my own I'm making my own assumptions here, and this
could be wrong, and I could be we could be
doing this podcast next year and I'll be like, Hey,
that assumption I made last year was completely wrong, you know,
And I might do that, but I actually factored it
in fairly heavily into the model as well, because again, longer,

(19:00):
deeper field, I want the dudes that are pretty long
and accurate, even though that hasn't really equaled success here.
What did you throw in yours West that maybe was
a little bit different or is there anything that you
de emphasize maybe that was a little bit different.

Speaker 6 (19:13):
Yeah, you mentioned about the accuracy. The average accuracy here
I believe is only fifty four percent, and it was
actually lower last year because it was really windy and
the scoring was a little bit higher.

Speaker 2 (19:23):
But in terms of the.

Speaker 6 (19:24):
Driving, I think total driving is a good way to go.
I went, good drives gained here. I didn't really want
to go heavily distance in accuracy.

Speaker 2 (19:32):
Good drives gained.

Speaker 6 (19:33):
Of course, even if you don't hit the fairway, you
can still hit the greens in regulations, so that's what
good drives gain really gives.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
You used a.

Speaker 6 (19:41):
Decent amount of approach here. In three of the last
six years, the Valero winner has rated first and approach
during their respective winning weeks in this field, So I
think you had to use the irons at least somewhat
significant here. In a model, Kelly mentioned bogie avoidance about
you know, it's tough.

Speaker 2 (19:57):
To avoid bogies here and a lot of doubles.

Speaker 6 (20:00):
Highest course is what Kelly mentioned, so bogey avoidant strokes
gained par five. I did use some sansades gained because
it's tough to gain strokes out of the sand here
because the bunkers are kind of I guess what you
could describe as cavernous here, So I did use that scrambling.
I used a little bit, even though it's easier than
the average course on tour. But you know, if the weather,

(20:20):
the weather affects short game too, not just your drives
and not just your approach shots.

Speaker 2 (20:25):
So I use a little bit of that Birdier better.

Speaker 6 (20:27):
I pretty much use every week just because I want
to see how these guys are scoring. And I think
that that gives you a good indication of that. The
only putting I did was very, very small on average
speed greens because these are only eleven on the stem
so these are slower by tour standards than these guys. See,
these aren't exactly like I think our friends at Fantasy

(20:48):
National call at Belcrow, So it's not like it's like
ten on the stemp or something, but it's slower than
what these guys have normally been putting on. So I
looked at that a little bit, and then I tried
to factor in if this is going to be windy
this week. Gotviously, if there's no win, then just throw
all that out. But moderate to windy conditions for strokes
gained here this week, So a lot of similarities, but

(21:10):
I did emphasize good drives gained a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (21:12):
And I thought I would. I thought I would be, you.

Speaker 6 (21:14):
Know, total like approach guy here, but I was really
kind of a mix and match of those two.

Speaker 1 (21:19):
Yeah, I think the only other thing that I added
into mine that y'all didn't was, and you'll pret y'all
you might have. I put in just a strokes gain
on long courses because with this being a long course,
I did throw that in there. Just just kind of
been a more of a tie breaker than anything else.
I think I waited it like three percent of the
one hundred percent or something, but I did want to
see what guys typically handle these longer courses pretty well.

(21:43):
And even though I didn't wait it very heavily, the
guys that ended up at the top of the model
were also guys that were pretty good on these long courses.
So I think that has some correlation to what we've
to what we've been talking about here as well. We're
going to step away real quick, guys, and when we
come back, will you know what the model said and
what we ended up putting on our betting cards. Welcome

(22:07):
back to long Shots Gollf Betting podcast here on the
Vson Podcast Network, Map Brown, Kelly, Bidlin, West Reynolds.

Speaker 3 (22:14):
Again.

Speaker 1 (22:14):
If you haven't already, to become a vsonprosubscriber vson dot
com slash subscribe.

Speaker 3 (22:18):
Use a promo code Golf.

Speaker 1 (22:19):
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Speaker 3 (22:26):
So, guys, my model ran and my model ran, and.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
I just a refresher if you guys are just joining us,
if you guys are new. I don't code, so when
I say my model, I actually just mean the stuff
I put into someone else's model.

Speaker 3 (22:42):
It's not it's not my model, it's.

Speaker 1 (22:45):
But I do use three different sites that obviously have
three different algorithms and also have three different data sets
of stuff that I can plug in to try and
figure out where I want to go with the card.

Speaker 3 (22:56):
And this week.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
All three of the all three of the models that
I ran and three different sites had two guys that
I ended up having to play in some fashion as
coming in at number one or number two. One of
those is Hideki Matsuyama and Hidekie Mauntsuyama, a guy that
started off kind of at the beginning of twenty twenty four,

(23:21):
but then really started to turn it on as the
as we got into middle of the as we got
into February, and so he was number one in two
of the three and then the first outright on my
card was the guy who was number one in the
other one and was number two in the other one.
It was number three in the other so no lower
than three in the models, including A one Alex Norin.

(23:43):
So Alex Norin is thirty three to one first outright
for me, this week pretty shocking whenever I went in
and because I'm like, what the hell is this model doing? Right,
And so I go in and I start looking at
Alex Norrin, and then I shortened this down to just
twenty twenty four starting after the Hawaii swing, right, So
like I didn't want to like skew anything with these

(24:04):
short field of answering there that so after the Hawaii swing,
So after the Hawaii Swing, for the rest of twenty
twenty four leading up to yesterday, Alex norn is the
number one strokes gain total golfer in all of the
PGA Tour. Since the Hawaii swing, he is seventeenth tee
de green, twenty fourth off the tee, thirty ninth on approach,
twenty fifth, ball striking, thirty ninth, putting twenty six short game.

(24:29):
The guy is literally inside the top forty in every
single thing you can do with a golf club and
golf ball since again since the Hawaii swing, so I
couldn't avoid putting him in there. The model was right,
apparently from what the stats are telling me, it's a
shorter number than we'd like to pay for Alex norin.
But hey man, it's he's checking every single one of

(24:50):
the boxes West, I mean at Wes and Kelly, both
of you guys.

Speaker 3 (24:53):
I don't know. I saw y'all both kind of like
lean away from the microphone.

Speaker 1 (24:57):
Is it because he showed up on your on your
st because he.

Speaker 5 (25:01):
Whole betting card. Matt just talked through the whole thing.
It's okay, go ahead, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (25:04):
That was what did he did? He make you outright
as well?

Speaker 4 (25:07):
I was. I was laughing because it was the same
thing for me.

Speaker 5 (25:10):
It was it was I think everything I ran was
matsu Yama just double checking matsu Yama or Norn was number.

Speaker 4 (25:17):
One on every single thing that I ran. So yeah,
it's so. I mean, I'm sure everybody.

Speaker 5 (25:22):
That's been paying attention to golf would know that Alex
nort has been one of the best of the creditst
the world. The leaks, so I didn't know. I did
not bet it out right on Dora though, the dude.

Speaker 3 (25:33):
Uh what how how many wins again?

Speaker 4 (25:36):
Uh?

Speaker 2 (25:37):
Yeah the world ten?

Speaker 1 (25:40):
Yeah, zero on American soil. Yeah, so zero on American soil.

Speaker 5 (25:44):
Now it is yolo, right, like he's gotta win this thing,
like to get into the Masters, right, I don't maybe
I don't even know if you need if he could
finish top five, So I hear you.

Speaker 4 (25:52):
That's where I just I was too I was too
big of a worse. I went with it, just a
top twenty play on him.

Speaker 1 (25:56):
Yeah, It's just it's just wildy number one and bogeyvoy.
It's number one in scram, number three and par five,
average number eighth in distance from the edge of the fairway,
which is basically good drives and whatever like fourteenth and
sanse percentage.

Speaker 3 (26:09):
It's just wild to me.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
Like, I mean, I knew he was playing good, but
I just didn't really dig in to see how good
West and Norn also make your card.

Speaker 2 (26:17):
He did.

Speaker 6 (26:17):
He actually is at the top of my card this week,
thirty four to one. I found him at Circa here
and look. Last week, Jaeger kind of rewarded betters who
had been betting him and falling short with the consistency
and Alex Norin really is mister consistency.

Speaker 2 (26:33):
He's made fifteen of his last eighteen cuts.

Speaker 6 (26:35):
Third at the Shriners, second the Bermuda, at the Fall Swing,
three straight top twenties, ninth at the Cognizant, nineteenth at
the Players, eleventh at the Houston Opens. So this is
a guy strokes getting total. I think I had him
fifth over the last twenty four rounds. This guy can
compete on this tour. You know, he's in his early forties.
He's won ten times on the DP World Tour and

(26:56):
against strong fields too, not necessarily the weak fields when
all the big names don't play like. He's beaten the
best European guys and the best worldwide guys over there.
But the price is small. But yeah, he really fit
this week, aside from the model just maybe going on
a little bit of a haunt here that you know,
it kind of feels like it's almost like his turn

(27:17):
because he's he's been there, he's been in the mix,
and he obviously has the sense of urgency too because
he is not in the masters field.

Speaker 2 (27:24):
So I think he was the shortest odd guy.

Speaker 6 (27:26):
I believe that it's not in the masters field this week,
so I thought he made a lot of sense.

Speaker 3 (27:31):
Yeah, that was, you know, and for you recent form guys.

Speaker 1 (27:34):
You know his last three starts T nineteen nineteen T
eleven so inside the top twenty, and his last three
starts as well played here last year T fifteen, So
a lot of things to like there about Alex Norton, Kelly,
Did I ruin your head?

Speaker 3 (27:46):
Did I ruin your Hideki spiel here?

Speaker 4 (27:48):
Yeah? Pretty much. But it's okay. You hit on everything.
It's great.

Speaker 5 (27:51):
Hey, Decky's an outright play for me this week you
can talk to and a top twenty play.

Speaker 4 (27:54):
I love him this week. I love this week.

Speaker 5 (27:56):
I've already got a Master's betloaded up on him. I
think that if you are looking to bet him this
like I am this week, you might not love the
Master's number that's out there right now. But if you're
betting him to win this week, and you think there's
a chance he's gonna win this week and numbers only
gonna get worse, so I would recommend betting him now.

Speaker 4 (28:15):
If you are going to follow.

Speaker 5 (28:17):
Along and bet hit Decky this week as well, you
guys hit on it. You hit on a bit, Matt,
but I mean T six the players T twelve API
won the Genesis T twenty two Phoenix. He's been awesome,
and I don't with both both him and Norn, Like,
I mean, Wes talked about this in the in the
first segment.

Speaker 4 (28:35):
There's not I don't.

Speaker 5 (28:36):
Think this is a course and and maybe this isn't
true either, like you were talking about with the driving distance, Matt,
like maybe it's just because of the field strength over
the years, But you talked about all the first time
winners here West, so obviously the course history doesn't have
a ton of correlation to win winners here either. But
there's like there was only only these results that strengthened arguments, right,

(28:57):
So you're like, all right, hit Decky, Okay, everything's good
reason for stats.

Speaker 4 (29:00):
Check out. Okay, shoot he was T fifteen year last year.
That's pretty good, Alex Doorn, same damn thing.

Speaker 5 (29:05):
You're like, so like even when you're trying to talk
yourself out and it's like, well, okay, there's another thing
to back you up.

Speaker 4 (29:10):
So yeah, Hideki noor In.

Speaker 5 (29:12):
I I'll just run through my mine real quick out right.

Speaker 1 (29:15):
Well, let me like, because I have Adki on the
card as well, so we might as well.

Speaker 3 (29:18):
Kind of like hate uniform.

Speaker 1 (29:19):
Here I went a different route and I did actually
play you know, sneak peeker. I did play for the
Masters already, so that's like one of the few bets
that I have in the account. But I played Hedeki
over Rory at plus money and like at big plus money,
like Hadeki plus one thirty five, he Deeki plus one
thirty five over Rory. If you didn't hear my Rory spiel,

(29:40):
go back to the beginning of that why are you
skipping to the picks part of the podcast?

Speaker 4 (29:43):
You're cheater?

Speaker 1 (29:44):
No cheat, and skip to the picks part of the podcast.
Come back to the beginning and listen to why I
don't like Rory this week? But uh, Hadeki over Rory
at plus one thirty five for me this week is
how I'm attacking Hedeki at one of my one of
my bigger head to heads of the of the year
or wes I imagine Hedecki was pretty uh was pretty
popping in your models as well.

Speaker 6 (30:06):
Yeah, I absolutely considered him and and and it looks
like he's at least healthy.

Speaker 2 (30:10):
Now we got a way to see for Wednesday.

Speaker 6 (30:12):
It's like, did he withdraw from the pro am or
something because he's bulled that before and then you're like,
oh my god, this guy's backs like about to fall apart.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
And then he goes ahead and plays well at the Masters.
I think that's what he did when he won a
few years ago. But yeah, he certainly, he certainly appeared.
And uh, you know, I'll be interested to see if
his price drifts up a little bit next week.

Speaker 6 (30:33):
If he's kind of a forgotten guy. I don't know
if he's gonna be forgotten necessarily this year.

Speaker 1 (30:38):
Yeah, I'm with you, Kelly, if if if you like
him this week, i'd probably go ahead at least.

Speaker 3 (30:41):
Get a piece now.

Speaker 4 (30:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (30:43):
And and if he contends, I don't know if that
number is gonna get worse. But you said you said
you you had a couple more there on your card.

Speaker 2 (30:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (30:50):
Yeah, And Wes, I mean, Wes is right.

Speaker 5 (30:52):
It's just you know, if you're betting him to win,
like okay, you think he's gonna win, then is if
he does win, you know that price is getting shorter.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
West might be right.

Speaker 5 (31:00):
So if he finishes top ten, who knows, when that
stuff gets reshuffled around and reopen that next week, you
might actually be able to get a little bit longer,
So you're probably right back.

Speaker 4 (31:09):
Maybe that's the best play.

Speaker 5 (31:10):
Just add a little little of him now, and then
you can always go back and add some more.

Speaker 1 (31:16):
I can tell you, guys, what I'm rooting for is
I'm just rooting for any household name person to and
the Live tournament to.

Speaker 3 (31:24):
Do well, like I want.

Speaker 1 (31:26):
I want any person that anyone has ever heard of
to do well at Live and get me better prices
on some of these other guys for the Masters this week.
So that's kind of my only hope here. Please Rom
and DJ and Bryson and all like, everyone just go
to have a day like I want you to. I
want you to have a day. But that's neither here
nor there. Kelly, what's the rest of your card look like?

Speaker 4 (31:47):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (31:47):
Onlike last year, I don't. I can't really see myself
betting any with guys this year, so I completely agree
with that. Yeah, only two outrights for me this week,
So I did be hit Deecki and then I went
back to Connors. I mean, this is obviously the course
he wins that I think he's gonna you know, I
think he realizes that and over the course of his career.
He hasn't picked up many ws. They've all come here,
so I think he'll he'll be looking to go out

(32:08):
there and put on a show. I mean, look, he was.
He was still a top five kind of model play
for me all around T thirteen of the players for
him T eighteen, API, T forty one, of the cognizant
T twenty four, Genesis T twenty eight, and the Phoenix.
So he's been putting up pretty good solid results this
season that when no wins yet, but you know, solid
results of the season. So I did bet now right

(32:29):
on him, bet him in the top twenty market, and
then played him in a matchup over Matt Fitzpatrick at.

Speaker 4 (32:35):
Minus one two bend just cruising down.

Speaker 5 (32:38):
The rest that I attacked was top ten, top twenties
and tournament matchups.

Speaker 4 (32:42):
Only those two outright bets for me. This week. One
guy did not get there with a outright.

Speaker 5 (32:47):
Bet on him, figured i'd just play with him in
the top ten market was Nate Lashley. He was a
guy that was popping in the model a little bit,
so long odds, just where he was showing up in
my models, it was worth a play for me, So
did play a long top ten on him at about
nine to one, Top twenties, then Hidekie, Corey Connors, That's
where I bet Nordon pretty heavily, and then Keith Mitchell.

(33:07):
I'm going back to him one more time. I think
I've bet him. I mean, I don't know four or
five straight weeks. But Matt, we talked about this. I
know the last part you were on you know what
were some of these guys getting tired?

Speaker 4 (33:18):
And I had some.

Speaker 5 (33:18):
Money on Mitchell last week. He sure looked tired, but uh,
maybe missing that cut and get a couple takes off
it helps some rebound a.

Speaker 3 (33:25):
Bit here, I hope.

Speaker 1 (33:26):
So because I have a seventy five do Keith Mitchell
outright this week? So yeah, I hope so as well.
Hopefully the week getting the weekend off made him feel
a little bit better.

Speaker 4 (33:35):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (33:36):
That was so Top twenties on Hidekie, Connors, Nord, and
Mitchell for me. And then the tournament matchups, I played
another That's where I played Mitchell again. I played him
in a matchup over bo Hostler. So tournament matchups for
me so far, Corey Connor's over Matt Fitzpatrick and Keith
Mitchell over bow Hostler's that's my whole card. I this
was one of those This is one of those vets.
I don't really want to get betting heavily anyways. And

(33:58):
when I kind of ran all my number, I just
kind of sat here with a smile on my face
like we did, like I did when you started talking back.

Speaker 4 (34:04):
Because everything lines up, it makes it way easier to
make bets for a leak.

Speaker 3 (34:08):
Yeah, yeah, I know.

Speaker 1 (34:08):
I'm with you, man, I'm with you, all right, Wes
what ended up on we know about the nor and stuff.

Speaker 3 (34:14):
What else ended up in your car?

Speaker 6 (34:16):
Yeah, And this was one where I didn't use any
of the what you would call the premium players up
at the top, maybe for matchups or placements, but I
went with the guys that I think you know, are
needing to get going here and getting in the Masters,
and guys that aren't in yet. And another guy that's
not in is Billy Horschel, who was around forty ish
to one that I played, has not missed the Master

(34:37):
since twenty seventeen. Winning this week is his last chance
to get that invitation. It's been pretty good here in
the past as a third and a fourth. Hear that
it us all the way back in twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen,
but he's trying to rally here.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
If you look, he's.

Speaker 6 (34:49):
Got three top twelve finishes in the last four events.
So in terms of really short recent form has been
very good, and he's been clutch in the past when
he's needed this, you know, when he needed to like
get in the one twenty five at the Windom, he's placed.
If you remember twenty fourteen when he won two FedEx
Cup events back to back and eventually became the FedEx

(35:09):
Cup champion. Didn't get him on the Ryder Cup team
that year, and it probably should have, but he's been
clutched when the pressure is on. So, you know, a
shorter price than I liked to usually play on a
billy horseel, but I played him around forty to one.
Another guy that's kind of been consistent, still looking kind
of falls into that Jaeger mode, looking for that first
PGA Tour victory, as Christian Bozeidenhout at fifty five to

(35:31):
one got a first place check at the American Express
this year because Nick Dunlap was an amateur who won
the thing out in Palm Springs, but eleventh on approach
seventeenth on putting twenty first on total strokes game this season.
The driving was better in the Florida Swing when he
gained off the tee. That can always be a little
bit of his bugaboo. But Bozeidenhut had fifty five to one.

Speaker 1 (35:52):
Well, I'll stop you there because that's my final outright,
is Zaydan out? So we hit him all here, Noorn
Mitchell and now bozeiden out. That's my final outright as well.
A guy that just lit up my mod. It just
lit up my model. And so as I dug in
a little bit further, I saw all the same things
that that you did, and weirdly enough you go into

(36:12):
that shrink it down, like take out the Hawaii part,
and then you like when the when the real tournament's
here in the state started. The only guy behind al,
the first guy behind Alex norin in strokes gain total
since then it's Christian bizaiden Hw.

Speaker 3 (36:26):
He's like he's sitting there at second.

Speaker 1 (36:28):
Strokes gained total in the entire PGA Tour since that
got going by the way third in approach over that
time span as well, and then fifth and putting I'm listen,
I'm not I didn't put a bunch of putting into this.
Actually I put no putting into my models this week.
But that being said, hell, I mean if the guy's
putting good, I mean that's it's gonna it can only
help hurt. Yeah, yeah, it doesn't hurt. So he's fifth

(36:49):
overall from a putting standpoint. So yeah, so that was
actually my my my final outright.

Speaker 2 (36:54):
Yeah, absolutely that that's good to hear.

Speaker 6 (36:56):
And he's been kind of close, and I think this
this is one one of those events where you see
those guys break through like Connors a few years ago.
So maybe that'll happen again next week. Maybe it'll happen
for this guy too. Maverick McNeely sixty six to one,
looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, trying
to make the Masters for the first time. Obviously, you know,
maybe you didn't weigh putting very much this week, but

(37:17):
if you did, you got arguably the best one in
the field in mav McNeely. And he's been pretty good
in a couple of tournaments this year. He's T six
at Phoenix, T nine at the Players. I think there's
a little Phoenix crossover here for guys that could play
well even though these are different courses.

Speaker 2 (37:31):
Fourth and strokes game total.

Speaker 6 (37:33):
Over the last twenty four rounds, and then the last
three we're all triple digit guys. One that you played
a couple of weeks ago, Matt, that I also had
on my Houston card last week was Andrew Novak at
one hundred and twenty five to one, ninth here at
TPC San Antonio last year. That run of form he
had in February taight at Phoenix, taight at Mexico ten nine,
and PGA nationally slowed a little bit, but six for

(37:55):
strokes gain total over the last twenty four rounds, actually
did lead the field and putting at the Valero last
year and was third for scrambling, so I think he's
at least going to be comfortable on the slower greens,
so I think worth the poke at triple digits. And
then another guy, Ryan Moore one hundred and fifty to one,
who has not been in the master since twenty eighteen,
five time PGA Tour winner, has not won in seven

(38:15):
and a half years.

Speaker 2 (38:16):
He's had back issues.

Speaker 6 (38:18):
You know, for really several years now, but if you
look recently, he's kind of coming back into form. Probably
the best golf he's played in a few years. Fifth
of vals bar thirty first in Houston last week, but
number one on approach for the last twenty four rounds.
He's played pretty well at TPC San Antonio before seventh
and twenty eighteen, third and twenty nineteen, and that was
when he was in kind of starting his rud a

(38:39):
little bit, and he still played well here. And then
one that Kelly mentioned, and I'm certainly going to play
on placement markets like he is.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
Nate Lashley one hundred.

Speaker 6 (38:47):
And fifty five to one, and this is a little
bit more not just a model play, but more of
a narrative street play here because Nate. Lastly, I think
Mark Hubbard was another one. Joel Damon, of course, who's
in the Masters field next week. They were Greenside last
Sunday to congratulate their good buddy Stephan Yeger on winning
his first.

Speaker 2 (39:05):
PGA Tour event.

Speaker 6 (39:06):
So maybe that inspires, you know a couple of these
guys like lash Lee or Hubbard to really grind it
out and play well this week. Lastly, one PGA Tour
win that was back in Detroit in twenty nineteen. He
was t three last year, or this year, ironically enough,
with his buddy Yeager at the Farmers Insurance Open that
Matthew Pavone eventually won. He had four straight miss cuts

(39:27):
after that, but he was T thirteen at the Players,
T twenty one at Houston. So you know you have
seen bombs win here. If you look at my recent
history that I put in at the column at vison
dot com, Corey Connors was two hundred and one whin
he won here in twenty nineteen. Jjspond two years ago
was one hundred and fifty to one. Andrew Landry was
two hundred to one. Stephen Bowditch was three hundred and

(39:48):
fifty to one. Ben Curtis was one hundred and fifty
to one. This is all within like the last decade
or so. Now much better field obviously at the top
with some of the names. But yeah, I have a
feeling it's going to be a mid price or a
bomb that's gonna win here again this week in San Antonio.

Speaker 1 (40:04):
So yeah, my outrights Nora and Bozeydon Howden and Keith Mitchell.
As I said, I ended up on Novak, but not
from an outright perspective. I'm gonna play him top twenty
and top forty. You're getting plus money on both of those,
plus three fifty on the top twenty, plus one seventy
five on the top forty. Another placement market guy for
me and a guy that was a guy that was

(40:26):
as high as third in one of in one of
the models that I ran, Bud Cawley.

Speaker 2 (40:34):
I looked at I looked at him like, I mean.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
Third in one of the mottles. He's frigging third, and
I'm just I was like, what is going on? But
then you just go in and you start to look
and you start to kind of break down what Bud
call again twelfth in this field and approach whenever again
like I went in and shrunk stuff down to I
wanted to see what dudes have done basically in twenty
twenty four as we're leading in, because if you played

(40:58):
so it's been a it's about twenty four rounds as
it is anyway, but then you kind of see the
dudes who played more played less whenever you just go
into like that after if you kind of put in
mid January until until now, so it's it's it's about
that anyway, and so it's it's basically.

Speaker 3 (41:14):
Top twenty four rounds of these guys.

Speaker 1 (41:15):
But someone played a little bit more, someone played a
little bit less, And that's what I wanted to see
with all of that, And Bud Cawley twelfth strokes gained
approach first in that bucket of like of of approach
from seventy five to one hundred right fifteenth good drive
percentage if you want that little like next little bucket
of one hundred and twenty five to one hundred and fifties,
twenty sixth in this field seventh and scrambling.

Speaker 3 (41:37):
I mean, I was like I was blown away eighth in.

Speaker 1 (41:39):
Sand safe twentieth and par five average, third in bogie
avoidance like cause, but.

Speaker 2 (41:44):
He came back from that long injury too.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Yeah, Bud Callie.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
So again, I couldn't all of these placement market guys
that are bombs, like I tell, I say, each and
every week, I will put a crumb on them to
win out right, because I don't want to cry if
they do. But like, but but it's mainly the money
is locked into these like top twenty, top forty markets.
For those guys I mentioned earlier, Hedecki over Rory, I
have Keith Mitchell over bo Hostler, which by the way

(42:10):
is also plus money. I like Keith Mitchell to win
this week. So if I like Keith Mitchell to maybe
win this week, I'll definitely take him over Bo Hostler
at plus money.

Speaker 4 (42:18):
This money on that I got minus one ten. Maybe
I bet it after.

Speaker 3 (42:21):
Matt Yeah, yes, maybe.

Speaker 1 (42:23):
So I have sounds like I have Corey Connor's over
Colin Morrikawa. I am fading Morikawa until I see like
anything that resembles consistency from him. So I'll take Connor's
here at the Connors Invitational essentially, yeah, to beat Colin Morrikala,
and then I'm actually going to gainst one of your

(42:45):
guys Wes here, But it's a guy that we're both
on as well, So I don't know if it's a
good thing or a bad thing.

Speaker 3 (42:49):
But I took Alex nor And over Billy Horsechell. That
was a head to head that is.

Speaker 1 (42:54):
I thought the price just wasn't indicative of of the
long term success. Whatever is minus one twenty for Nora
and over uh over Billy Horseel. So I did take
Norn over Billy Horschel. I do have a pool since
I only have three outrights, I do have a pool
of guys that I will add one or two of
these guys. So I want to put that out there
so I don't get the hey, if friggin didn't ever

(43:16):
mention these guys or something like that. These it's a
it's a short list that I want to dig into
a little bit further. Maybe you guys can can help
me out, let me know where they showed up, maybe
in your models whatever. I don't know if this is
a bilo spot on Max Homa. That is something that
is really kind of getting at me, because if if
he hadn't been so bad off the tee over the
last couple of tournaments, I think we would see Max

(43:36):
Homa at a shorter odd So I don't know if
this is a bilo on him. Ok, Shay Patilla showed
up very well in a lot of the models for me.
Eric vn Royan another guy that showed up. I think
it's probably because I weighed so much par five stuff,
Kelly and he just he just destroys par five so
like he is number one with a bullet as far
as par five scoring.

Speaker 3 (43:55):
Uh in all of this. Lucas Glover, weirdly enough like.

Speaker 2 (43:59):
Show he was one of my last leave offs, like
he's fifth.

Speaker 1 (44:04):
In one of my models, which I thought, like because
I put in no putting, obviously, and so like, if
you put in putting, then he probably falls down your
rankings pretty hard. But I put in no putting, So
if you just look at all the stats outside of putting,
he's he's fifth in one of my models, which was
pretty crazy. So maybe I get to Glover and then
I have to just decide whether I'm going to drink

(44:24):
very early on Sunday morning or not, even though I
have a show at nine am that I do on
the network. But like, do I want to go down
the Russell Henley experiment?

Speaker 3 (44:31):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (44:32):
Yeah, yet again because he's another dude that just really
showed up inside the top twelve and every single version
of the model that I ran, And I just don't
know if I can go down that street again with
Russell Henley. Did any of those names, Wes, You said,
first off, your card was Lucas Glover, so that's good
to know. What about Homa, Kelly Beattilla, EVR, Russell Henley,

(44:53):
any of those guys?

Speaker 4 (44:54):
EVR?

Speaker 3 (44:55):
Did?

Speaker 5 (44:57):
Henley's an interesting one because no, he really didn't pop
to me at all, but I'm just I mean, you know,
I'm just thinking and looking at odds as you're talking
in the like, I don't know if I can get
there on hom I hear you on that. I hear
you like the form is not there. I don't know
if that price is drifted far enough though, for me
to really feel like I'm getting a ton of value
on it. Even in this field, I mean the field

(45:17):
that's stronger than it usually is at this course, but
it's still a watered downfield compared to what we're gonna
see next week. I would want to I think i'd
be interested in him if I started to see a
three next to that that number, if it was thirty
something like that. I Henley, though, I mean forty five
to one in this field, like he's drifted a bit,
it feels like on these odds, So I think, I

(45:39):
think you're maybe getting in on a little.

Speaker 4 (45:40):
Bit of a bile.

Speaker 5 (45:41):
It could get into a bit of a Bilow spot
for him, at least where he's kind of ranked at
with the rest of these guys. I that one would
be interesting to me, even though he didn't really pop Bati,
I feel like less you and I discussed last week.

Speaker 4 (45:54):
He did pop more for me.

Speaker 5 (45:56):
Last week, I'm just kind of looking like he's mid
teens range.

Speaker 6 (45:59):
For me up eleventh, but he was in the top
ten for a lot of Sunday. And by the way,
even though he is a PGA Tour winner, because a
lot of people are like, why had he and the Masters?
He won that Barrakuda which was that alternate event to
the Open, which doesn't get a Master's invitation, so he's
not yet in the Masters, so he has a lot
of urgency this week.

Speaker 4 (46:19):
That sucks.

Speaker 5 (46:20):
I don't I don't know if I knew that. Why
the hell you having another another PGA Tour event.

Speaker 6 (46:25):
They have those alternates that with the Barbasoal down in Kentucky.
That's usually an opposite event. Uh, some years it's been
the Barrakudah. So yeah, the Barrakuta because remember he beat
Patrick Rodgers, another guy who was looking for his long
awaited first PGA Tour win, who I considered this week.
He beat him in that playoff out there at that
they old Reno Tahoe Open is what it was called.

Speaker 1 (46:48):
A couple of guys, you know, just longer shot guys
bombs that I actually mentioned him a couple of weeks
ago on the podcast, and he showed pretty well. Actually,
Max Graserman show has like again popping and and he
had off the t And the other thing about this
is I shortened this to where it's it's not getting
clouded by corn Ferry stats either, right, Like, so I

(47:11):
shortened this time span to be all of his PGA
tour starts, right, And so with that, he's still showing
up in kind of the top fifteen of a lot
of these a lot of these models that I'm running,
and his odds are not indicative.

Speaker 3 (47:26):
I don't think of where that is.

Speaker 1 (47:27):
So probably gonna end up with a placement market bet
on Gracerman and just hope that he's not tiring out,
because he has fired off like several weeks in a row.

Speaker 4 (47:34):
Here.

Speaker 1 (47:35):
I imagine trying to see if he can't work his way,
you know, bink one of these to get into the Masters,
And of course we kind of skipped over him. If
you want to play Ludvig, he's gonna win at some point.
He's like, he's so incredibly good, it's just twelve to one.
I'll miss out on it if I miss out on it.
But like he's you know, he's inside the top five

(47:56):
and every single you.

Speaker 6 (47:57):
Know, yeah, look all of all. Like the Chalky guy,
he was the one I did kind of like, Okay,
maybe I got to take a second look here, but yeah,
twelve to one. And I know he's played this course
before because obviously he played at Texas Tech as a collegiate,
so he's played here before. I think he has a
third in an event on one of those collegiate events.
But at twelve to one, I still feel like this guy,

(48:17):
even though he's got all the talent in the world,
he needs to be like in the load mid twenties.

Speaker 4 (48:21):
In an event like this, Yeah, that's he was.

Speaker 5 (48:25):
There wasn't many guys I entered this week thinking I
was gonna bet, but he was one of them. And
in wess exactly what you said. I thought I was
gonna get eighteen eighteen something like.

Speaker 4 (48:34):
That on him, and I was like, all right, never mind.

Speaker 5 (48:37):
It was a quick look at the odds and I
was like, like you said, man, I'm good he wins
this week.

Speaker 4 (48:41):
That's fine. What I'm fine missing out?

Speaker 3 (48:43):
All right, Like I'll miss out, and he very well might.

Speaker 1 (48:46):
I mean, he's been he's been right there right, he's
had like what he's it's basically had like a seven
stretch of bad holes every tournament that has kept him
from winning. But he's like he's still freaking top twenty
in every single turn. You know, he's just kind of
under the radar.

Speaker 5 (49:01):
Yeah, I'm glad you brought him up though, because he
did rate out very highly. For me, I there is
without a doubt you could you could look at my
numbers and absolutely make a case about it a MIT
twelfth to Wie. It's just with where he's at in
his career. I'm fine. I'm fine waiting and missing on
this one.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
Yeah, yeah, I am as well. I thought I would
get a juicier number him versus Rory, but like it's
not so like I'll pass on the head to head
there too.

Speaker 3 (49:27):
And again if if he beats Rory, then not whatever.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
I just I left money on the table with all that. Guys,
As always, you can go to vson dot com slash Picks.
You can see each and every one of our picks
and as well as anyone else's picks or across the
network that has come on and talked about this tournament
as well. And of course we're going to talk a
ton about the Masters. The Masters Betting primer already up
on vson dot com, so go and take advantage of that.
And of course we will have a special show for

(49:52):
you guys next week as well that will air on
the traditional Vson network where we are going through and
and uh talking about all things mass true as well,
uh humble brag before I get on a plane and
head over there. So that is uh, I just I
thought i'd sneak that in, Kelly. I know you like
to You're so bitch. I remember you're talking about it.
I don't know you ended up doing that look at
you before before I get on a plane and head

(50:13):
over there. So I'll just slip that in as we go.
So for well, ke por Kelly, I'm mat good luck
on all your Valero bets.