March 20, 2024 • 47 mins
Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds preview the Valspar Championship from Florida. The guys give their course breakdown and stats that matter. They give their best bets for the tournament. They also react to Scottie Scheffler winning The Players, making it back-to-back tournament wins and back-to-back wins at The Players. What are the betting takeaways from Scheffler's win?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here
on the Vison podcast network.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
It is the Vowspar edition.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin coming to you and fellas,
we'll do a quick recap of last week. And we
said it on the We said it on the pod
that you know, kind of jokingly but not really, if
there was ever a week to play the Winner without Market,
that maybe it would be this week. And we didn't
(00:40):
know that it was going to turn out to be
actually true that you wanted to play the Winner without
Market with Scotti Scheffler. But Scotti Scheffler comes from behind,
gets it done. He's the best golfer on the planet.
I don't think it's hyperbole to already start talking about
him being in the short list of some of the
best golfers that we've ever seen play the game, because
he is is the most consistent golfer on the planet
(01:03):
for the last several years, and if he can actually
put it's going to be it's just going to be ridiculous.
You guys had Xander outrights, Wes had Harmon as well,
I had, I had Wyndham Clark. None of us get home.
We have to hedge our asses off just to try
and break even on the week. So it is what
it was, Kelly. I texted you and said, I have
(01:23):
hedged around in a circle so many times now that
I've just like I don't even know what's going on
like with all this, but I at least didn't lose
money this past week. It just kind of kind of
is what it is. You said you had a nice
little week there.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Yeah, it was the best tournament the year by far
for me, even without getting Xander home. But that, you know,
typically Calf the Circuit Sports for posting those yes nos,
Thank god for that.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I was shocked when he was.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
I was shocked at Xander with a what do you
have a one stroke lead heading into the final round? Right?
He was minus one fifty on the no with with
the names that were around him. So I almost broke
my fingers betting that.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
But yeah, good weekend.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Three or four finishing positions got home, swept matchups, So
it was about as good of a tournament as you
could have without hitting and out right, and yes, this
is welcome to betting golf if you're new, because I'm
still frustrated as hell after that event because I have
not hit a pre tournament out right yet this year.
And Matt, I think for everybody who didn't catch the
(02:19):
Friday edition, you said it perfectly. The man would have
to literally break his neck apparently to not win that
tournament because he was still looked stiff and flustered by
it on Saturday. And then Sunday comes and oh, there's
nuclear Scottie Scheffler doing everything and looking great on every shot.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Yeah, Wes, it was you know, you and I were
together on Sunday morning. We kind of saw him creeping
up the leaderboard. It almost felt weirdly inevitable, and we.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Were resigned to our fate.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Yeah, it almost felt weirdly inevitable. And it was one
of those things where we sit there and go, well,
it's Scottie Scheffler, So what are we gonna do about it?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You know?
Speaker 3 (02:57):
What can we do?
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (02:58):
I mean here here was the difference.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
And you know, a small change for me just taking
a little piece of Scheffler, but eighty point four percent
driving accuracy for Scottie Scheffler last week. That was number one,
by the way in the field. If the guys that
made the cutch, that was if you want to look
for a statistical difference, that was a difference between him
and like Schoflet and Clark and those guys. I think
(03:20):
was just the driving accuracy. He gained a little bit
with the putter for the week, gained it most early
in the week, and then never had a three putt.
By the way, that's two straight events that Scotty Scheffler
has not had a three pot. And we know he's
at least good for a couple most weeks, even when
he strikes the ball so beautifully, but gets it done again.
First ever winner of the Players Championship in back to
(03:42):
back years that had never been done before. He's actually
the first world number one on the PGA Tour to
win events in two consecutive weeks, believe it or not
since twenty twelve when Rory McElroy won two FedEx Cut
playoff events. So and Wyndham Clark Man Poor Wyndam Clark
Brides made again two weeks in a row. That's the
last last time you've had the same golfers finish one
(04:02):
to two on the PGA Tour. I believe since it
was Gil Morgan and Lannie Watkins in nineteen eighty three,
we remember that like it was yesterday, of course.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
And then once.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
Again Xander Schoffle thirty four straight events, has not been
able to close out a win, and you know, it's
becoming to the point where it's like, hey, you can
call him a great talent, but can you call him
a great player yet? Because he just is not. He's
won I mean, he's won Olympic gold, don't get me wrong,
He's won a big event before, but still has not
won that major, still has not won the players and
(04:34):
just something's always missing, just one little thing goes wrong
and he just can't get at home. And you know,
you got to play almost dead solid perfect to beat
Scotti Scheffler. You got to hope that he plays kind
of like mediocre to solid good but not great, and
he played a lot better than solid good.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
And Kelly, listen, this is one of those things where
you know, I talked about it with you on the
After the Cut pod, I talked about with Wes on air,
and you know, all this today we do the best
we can, right, we're recording these things on Tuesday, and
you know, sometimes bets get at it, and it's one
of those things for me, the Windom Clark thing. I'm
(05:13):
sitting in bed on Wednesday night, literally at eleven o'clock
at night, and I do one last little you know,
peruse of the odds and see that a book here
in town where he had drifted all the way to
fifty three to one, which was like not only the
best price in the market, but the best price in
the market buy a lot, and he ends up getting
added to the betting card. Like, I get it. It
doesn't help anyone out there, and it makes me I
(05:36):
feel I it sucks, but at the same time, like
I don't feel bad, Like we're betters, We're going to
make bets and not every single one is going to
to kind of show up with all of that. I
did have a couple of people say like, oh, yeah,
convenient that you had a Wyndham Clark ticket. But it's
just one of those deals where you know, look, even
if I posted it to the website, it's eleven o'clock
(05:58):
at night. The guys were teen off in like four
and a half hours, you know, like what it's not
going to it's not gonna get in anyway, right, And
so you know, we do the best we can. We
try to put all this stuff out there as much
as we can, but they're going to be laid ads
if if if numbers drift and things like that, and
you know, we're better and we're trying to take advantage
of of stuff like that as well. And so all
(06:20):
I can say is we're gonna give you the most
that we can give you, and we're gonna try the
best we can. But you might not get every single
everything that makes it onto the card every week.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Yeah. No, this look, we have to record a podcast.
We have to record it a certain time. We can
only give you everything that we've bet up to the
up until that point. There's always going to be things, uh,
you know, live live through a turn is four. Part
of the reason why we love betting golf so much
is there's four freaking days of action.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
It is.
Speaker 4 (06:46):
It is a short futures ticket or a long single
game ticket, think about it that way. So it gives
us different opportunities to get bet in game throughout four
days span. And that's that's just what happens. I mean
you're gonna, but you're gonna something that drifts to a
certain number you're going to play.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
I guess the other thing is I would have felt
I guess I would have felt bad if we hadn't
even talked about Wyndham Clark at all. But we brought up,
like we said, this guy or that guy, and we
talked about it, and I actually talked about that. I
actually liked Wyndham Clark, and my model liked Windham Clark
a little bit better I think than then, you know,
was showing up on y'all's end and stuff, and so
you know, again, it just kind of is what it
is with all that. But Wes at the end of
the day, I mean, if Scotty just and we've said
(07:27):
this for six months now, said it for a year
now actually, but you know, if Scotty just puts even,
he was going to be in the top five of
every single tournament. And if he puts like positive, he's
going to literally probably be right there, you know, in
just about every single tournament that he plays. And I'm
probably not going to be playing five to one and
(07:48):
four and a half to one and four to one.
Scotty Scheffler in these tournaments with the best players in
the world. But if somebody wants to come to me
and say, hey, I want to start playing these winner
without markets and stuff like, I don't think I'm going
to talk him off the ledge until we see something
different from Scotty because he was already the best ball
striker in the world. He was one of the very
best drivers in the world. He's been good around the greens.
The only thing lacking was the putter. And if he's
(08:09):
going to put like this, it's going to be very,
very tough to beat that dude.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Yeah, no question about it. Look, it seems like he
knocks it to within twelve feet like on every single hole,
and you know eventually you're gonna make a few of those,
and he certainly is.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
So.
Speaker 5 (08:24):
Look, I think probably top ten, top ten Scottie. You
know every single time you're gonna get something out of it.
And I forget the listener who tweeted at us last
week did the same thing, and that's what you have
to do. Look, am I gonna bet him plus four
fifty at the Masters?
Speaker 2 (08:40):
No?
Speaker 5 (08:40):
You know, if you got eight or ten to one,
good on you. You got a really good number. But no,
I'm not gonna bet him for the Masters, but probably
you're gonna have to lay big to lay top ten.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
But I can't argue against it.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
I'll keep bet you tough.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, I mean, I'll keep bett I've bet him three
tournaments straight top ten.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I don't care what the number is.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
I'll keep betting it until it ends up going the
other way on me, especially especially ride in this hot putter.
I mean, like, while the putter's working, I ain't going
away now, So I'll stay right there with him, and
I'll stay keep betting top twenties with Doug gim till
those wheels fall off. Maybe a little teaser for this episode. Yeah,
Like I said, you can. You can get all of
(09:19):
our our plays.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
You know that we have by the time we record
this here on this podcast, of course, But if you
want to become a Vson Pro subscriber, you can use
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but we also have other golf betters at the network
as well, so those will all be logged over at
(09:40):
vson dot com as well, so be sure and take
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O l F. Guys, this was the first week. If
you're sitting here wondering if you were going to get
around the world west, the answer is yes. It's just
in a separate podcast in your feed if you're already
a subscriber, so it will be waiting on you.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Just look in your feet.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
And by the way, if you're not already describer, go
ahead and hit the subscribe.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
But it's absolutely free.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
It doesn't cost you a single penny to be a
subscriber to this here podcast, so be sure and take
advantage of that. As we have now broke that off
into its own separate entity. Kelly and Wes went over
his picks for this week, and you know, Kelly, this
was something we had had talked about for a little
bit and there was a lot of people who were saying, hey, man,
I like betting these alt tournaments, and so we're gonna
(10:28):
give a little bit more love to them here moving forward.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
Yeah, absolutely, over in Singapore this week. I think for
anybody who listens to this podcast regularly, hopefully, I'm assuming
you're gonna like it one way or the other. Either
you scrubbed through past though Around the World with Wes
Reynolds because you just wanted to get the PGA Tour stuff,
or you were like, all right, let me scrub through
and find the spot where they actually talk with Wes
(10:51):
about it. So guess what, We've just taken those and
separated it for you. Now you can just load up
each podcast separately, PGA Tour with all three of us
and then Wes Around World with West Reynolds a separate
one though amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
We should highlight all the great work that West does,
and of course you can find his article over on
vson dot com as well. But onto the bas Bar Championship.
It is the Copperhead Course over at Innisbrook. It is
in Palm Harbor, Florida, and if we look at the
odds board, it's a There are some top guys in
the field this week, but it is not quite as
deep at the top as it has been of course
(11:23):
the last couple of weeks where we've had these elevated events.
Xander Schoffley is gonna play. He's sitting at six and
a half to one. Sam Burns two time winner here,
twelve to one, Justin Thomas fourteen to one, Jordan Speith
eighteen to one, Brian Harmon coming off of his kind
of heartbreak last week at eighteen to one, I mean
twenty to one, Cam Young twenty two, Feenal twenty five,
(11:44):
as is Sung Jay Minwu Lee I Leganandi listen, he's
he's lingering. He's made all his cuts since last June.
Thirty to one for him, Sceptstraca thirty five, as is
Nick Taylor and Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin and then everybody
else is forty to one or longer in this West
when you look at the odds board, obviously Xander gonna
(12:05):
be the favorite here. He is the class of the field.
That being said, I have absolutely if I didn't have
any interest in betten Zander when you guys got him
at sixteen or seventeen to one last week, I sure
as held on having any interest At six and a
half to one again, the guy just cannot close out tournaments.
It's it's I mean, you woulda bet him top five
plus one seventy five all day long. Fine, I will,
(12:25):
I will not talk you off of it, but plus
six fifty to win, no way, no how for me.
Any when you were looking at the odds board, did
anything kind of stand out to you at the top
up here?
Speaker 5 (12:34):
Yeah, he was shortened a little bit because Patrick cantlay
Withdrew over the weekend he was supposed to play.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
But he is out.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Sam Burns obviously two time winner here back to back
twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, so not surprised to
see him short. Justin Thomas has had a good history here,
third and tenth here in the last two years. Jordan's
FIFA has won here before, so not surprising that that's
put into the market. And then of course Brian Harmon
finished fifth here in twenty twenty two, but has also
(13:02):
missed the cut here in five of the last six years.
So former champions by the way, other than Burns and
speed Doo I mentioned that are in this field. Taylor
Moore eighty to one, I believe is what I saw
early on to defend his title. Adam had wins sixty
to one, who did win here in twenty seventeen, And
then you mentioned the mid and rage f now young
son Jay minwoo Lee, Eric Cole, Geigan Bradley, Nick Taylor
(13:24):
in that middle price.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
I know there was one name I was surprised I
didn't see on the odds board Matt when I first
pulled it up, and it was a guy who's been
cruising through Florida.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
His name is Shane lowry Well.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
I figured out while doing Around the World with Wes
Reynolds earlier that he's over at Singapore this week for
some reason. Yeah, I mean, like you've been tearing it
up at Florida. I don't know why the hell the
hell you're doing that, but clearly he's got to hold
on to that DP World Tour card or whatever and
get out of there.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
But he took the trip over there, as did Matchew Pavone,
who of course won earlier this year at the Farmers
Insurance Open. So couple PGA Tour regulars over there this
week along with Paul Casey.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Yeah, if we if we look at the schedule, of course,
they're all eyes are just counting down here to the Masters.
That being said, we have the valspar this week, We've
got the Texas Children's Houston opened that is over in
Houston next week. Then after that we have the Valero,
and then we get to the Masters and Wes. It's
it's one of those things where you know, a lot
(14:20):
of these guys might play one of these is kind
of a tune up towards the Masters. We used to
see a lot of guys just skip all three of them.
But I think that the I think we've kind of
got a different type of mindset now with with some
of these dudes that are looking a little bit more
like you know what, like sitting out for three weeks
actually isn't the greatest idea for me, And so I expect,
(14:41):
you know, we have we of course we have some
decent we have some decent names playing this week. I
imagine we'll get a handful next week and maybe even
a handful at the Valero. But we won't get them
all at the same time, No.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
We won't.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
I think we will get maybe more in Houston next
week because Houston was in was a fall event actually
for a couple of years, because I remember when it
was all is the Shelle Houston Open, when it was
at TPC Woodlands, it was always the week before and
it always got a really really stellar field, but uh
maybe maybe some investment here and ed, you know, guys
trying to convince players to come. It is Jim Crane,
(15:14):
who is the owner of the Houston Astros. He's the
guy kind of organizes this event, puts it on.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Moved it to Memorial Park. Memorial Park, I.
Speaker 5 (15:22):
Should say, so you've already got some big names by
the way, announced Fenale Clark, Xalatoris Scheffler, Saheith Thigala. Uh,
those are the guys that are just already announced. I
expect you're gonna have a few more go ahead and
play next week as well.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, Kelly, I one of the things that you already
you already mentioned this and we'll we'll bring it up again.
I am at least starting to monitor a little bit
some of these guys schedules just to see, like, you know,
who's who's been playing a ton, who might be wearing down,
who might be looking to take a break somewhere along
the way. With all of this, I one of the
guys on my card that is actually the only real
(15:57):
concern that I have entering this week too. So it's
something we used to talk about with sun Jay all
the time, like sung Jay played every single friggin' event
like on the calendar, and we were like, dude, no
wonder by the time you played your eighth event in
a row that you're you know, you're finally you know,
starting to get sloppy and stuff with everything. So I
you know, I did look a little bit at some
of these guys schedules, which made me a little a
(16:20):
little nervous on a couple of different guys. How did
you start to monitor that stuff? And have you started
look at this as we head into the uh end
of the Masters.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Yeah, a little bit. I think it's something to be
aware of. I think that also when you get these
fields that are a little lighter, uh, it's I mean,
I want to speak for you guys. I think for
me though, it was there wasn't as much jumping right
out to me this week of or it was a
pretty clean break of Okay, I'm gonna bet this guy,
this guy, this guy, and then I've got no interest
beyond that, uh in some of these guys. But yeah, no,
(16:49):
I it's definitely something to monitor be aware of. I'm
pretty sure Eric Cole has played professionally every single week
ever since I first heard his name. Uh, so like yeah,
I mean, yeah, it is some I mean, look like
we just brought up Shane Lowry, Like that's like that
travel schedule is ridiculous?
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Like you play three straight weeks in Florida and then
you're going over to Singapore and then you're gonna go
back and try I mean, I don't know what his
plans are next few weeks. You would think he's probably
gonna take a week or two off, but yeah, everybody's different.
You know, Scheffler always played, he always plays typically down
to Texas, right one of those right west. So like yeah, yeah,
(17:26):
like you're talking about Matt, Yeah you're I'm sorry you
said that. Like you're talking about Matt. I think I
think we should expect all these guys to kind of
tee it up one of these next couple of tournaments
before the Masters. But that's probably about all you're gonna get.
I wish that they would swap uh this week, now
that we've kind of seen what this new schedule looks like,
I really wish they'd swap this tournament and the players, uh,
(17:47):
just because I think this is such a great tournament,
such a great course and it kind of just gets
a lighter field every year, and really which I really
wish it was highlighted a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Well, let's get to it, Wes. We are talking about
the copper Head course. If you go to Innisbrook Golf
colbe there are four different courses there, Copperhead the most
famous in Copperhead where we're going to be playing the
vals Bar this week. They're in Palm Harbor, not too
far outside of Tampa. And you know, West's course is
one of those in which a little bit different than
(18:18):
I mean, we have some hints of what we've seen
the last couple of weeks, but this one truly truly
your positional course where I don't think we're going to
be valuing distance off the tee at all.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
No, not at all. And you mentioned the Copperhead course
in Innisbrook.
Speaker 5 (18:33):
Palm Harbor, about oh twenty miles away from Tampa and
Saint Pete, so it's basically in that area. And it's
actually if you really kind of look at how the
course is laid out, it's not like your typical Florida course.
It's very much like a Carolina's type of course, you know,
very tree line par seventy one seventy three forty six
(18:54):
narrowest fairways off the tee, by the way on the
tour twenty seven point five on average tree line fairways.
You got some elevation changes. He got some dog legs
here and even double dog legs hole which Larry Packard
was the redesigner or the original designer of this course
in nineteen seventy four and then it got renovated in
twenty fifteen. Got water and play on six of the
eighteen holes, seventy four bunkers. There are actually five par
(19:17):
threes here, which is very unique for a par seventy
one layout. Four par fives and just nine par fours,
so you know, you do have the toughest stretch of holes.
Is actually, you know, we talk about the bear trap
at PG National, the closing stretch here at sixteen through
eighteen is called the snake bit, which is, you know, basically, yeah,
there we go, snakes, there we go.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
Pars are good all four days here.
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Basically no valspar actually read this, no valspar winner in
the history of the tournament has played the snake pit
under par for the entire tournament. So, like I said,
pars are very good scores here fairways and rough rye overseed.
They actually have grown out the rough and made it
a little bit tougher because I think when Burns won
it was seventeen hunnerd It's like, wait, this course is
(20:01):
getting too easy. And then all they did was they
grew out the rough and then they moved thicker rough
closer to the greens. And what was the winner last
year ten under par, So you know that's about what
they want here the greens. The Bermuda is a little
bit more dormant, so it's mostly Poe triv like it
was last week.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
At the Players at TPC Sawgrass.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
If you're looking for correlated courses, obviously the aforementioned Sawgrass,
Harbor Town Colonial, TPC, South Wind TPC San Antonio TPC
River Highlands, So it should be players really like this course,
even though it's a very tough course. So I think
probably ten to twelve under is going to be the
winning score yet again.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Yeah, Kelly, when when we looked at at.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
The course, just the way that it sets up, it's
a it's a less than driver set up for the
vast majority of this and so what it really does
is we talked about last week it was a definitely
a first shot course, whereas this is going to be
definitely a second shot course because you're gonna have most
people ending up relatively in the same area so long
(21:06):
as they're hitting it in the fairway. Now, these are
these are small fairways, and so they could certainly end
up in the rough, and it's it's hard to hit
these fairways. But if you do hit the fairway, you're
not really gonna be that much differently positioned than the
other guys. So it really comes down to the dudes
with the irons. And so you know as to where
last week we were saying, hey, no, there's so much water,
there's so much where like you've got it. You've gotta
(21:28):
be good off the tee. It has to be a priority.
This week not so much.
Speaker 4 (21:32):
Yeah, yeah, I think, uh, you know, accuracy for different reasons. Right,
like you said, first shot course last week, you just
need to keep it out of the damn water, you know,
rough maybe not as hazardous last week is what you're
gonna see this week. And mean, these are these are
really fit fairways of what we're talking about. And then
I mean three and three quarter inches is what we're
talking about rough.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Height like that.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
I mean that is a beast when you're talking talking
about rough length. So yeah, it is like you said,
I mean it is all about accuracy off the tea
this week. Try to keep it in the fairway. And
then you got to hit extremely accurate second second shots
into some smallish greens, uh up up up top there,
(22:14):
like you said, wet some different different around the green
difficulties too. Uh you know, added to this course. It's uh,
it levels the playing field a little bit. I think
when you take away just even the option of the
distance off the tee, that's I think that knows why
you get a lot of people, a lot of the
guys saying they love playing this course. Uh you know,
maybe not the guys who are the longest off the
te box. It feels like it gives them a bit
(22:36):
more of a chance. So yeah, it is. It's fascinating.
I think it's a I think every every year I
watched this tournament, it always shocks me. How like you know,
kind of like you hinted that West, it don't it
doesn't really feel like you're in Florida anymore. Like after
the players, you're like, where's all the water at like.
Speaker 5 (22:52):
Yeah, exactly, it's fairways and greens here. I know that's
gonna sound overlea cliche, but you know, fairways and greens,
ball strike paradise. I heard some quotes I have some
Ted Scott, who's now Scottie Scheffler's caddy, you know, said basically,
you got to play boring golf here, you know, hit
the fairways and hit the greens. You know, a tough course,
but a fair course. So I actually I actually liked
(23:15):
this event. I think you know, you get a condensed leaderboard,
you get different type of players up there.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
So I've actually liked this event over the years.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Guys are gonna take a quick break. When we come back,
we'll let you know what we threw into our models
this week, what it spit out, and what plays ended
up on our betting card. Coming back here on long Shots.
It is long Shots here on the Beson Podcast Network.
Matt Brown, Kelly Bilin, Wes Reynolds coming to your reminder.
Promo code Golf forty one dollars off an annual subscription
(23:46):
over Vison dot com for a Vson Pro subscription, get
all the picks, all the plays, not just for golf,
but for every single sport over there on vson dot com.
So guys, like we said, I less than driver stuff,
So I didn't really focus very much this week on
off the t stuff. Very heavy on approach, very heavy
(24:06):
on par five scoring, very heavy on bogey avoidance, and
very heavy on scrambling outside of that. Really, just kind
of good drives was what I was looking for, because
you know, like I said, it's gonna be hard to
hit these fairways, so as long as you're not spraying
it missing it too far, I'm gonna be okay with that.
But you know, Wes, I don't know what if you
(24:28):
did anything differently in your models.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
But I didn't get too too crazy this week.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
I just kind of loaded up on the stuff that
I felt was super important and then tried to decipher
what the models told me from there.
Speaker 5 (24:41):
Yeah, approach was number one for me because if you
look the the greens and regulation rate by the way
here at Innisbrook just fifty six point eight percent, that's
one of the lower on tour. So the last seven
years at the vast Bar, the winner has averaged six
or better on approach during their respective winning week.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
So I thought approach was very important in terms of.
Speaker 5 (25:00):
Off the tee, I did a little combo platter of
good drives gained and fairways gained. This week, players only
hit the fairway about fifty six percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
They're really narrow.
Speaker 5 (25:10):
They take dry less than driver off the tee. So
you're gonna see a lot of three woods, a lot
of hybrids, a lot of irons here. So I think
that that brings a lot of the shorter hitters into
play in terms of I did bogie avoidance for scoring too,
because you are going to make some bogeis out here,
even though the greens really are are relatively fair and
easy to put on, relatively smooth. So I don't think
(25:31):
this turns necessarily into a putting contest. But you know,
certainly you can be a lot more aggressive here on
putts and not worry about Okay, if you hit it
four or five feet by that you've got like a
double breaker or something back. It's very fair. So looked
a little bit at that. I did look at scrambling,
by the way, where I said that this course was
made tougher, the scrambling rate was like sixty six point
(25:54):
seven percent getting up and down in twenty twenty two,
last year it was only fifty nine points eight percent.
That's a big difference for one year, you know, and
it really wasn't a weather issue, is the Beau because
the rough that sticker was moved closer to the greens,
so you know, you got to chip it out of there,
and you got to be tidy with the short game.
I did strokes gain par fives as well, because those
(26:14):
are the four easiest holes and you're gonna have to
take advantage in terms of the proximity buckets. About over
half of the shots are going to be one seventy
five and out, So if you want to look at
one seventy five to two hundred or two hundred plus,
you certainly could do that. And then I did a
little context thing that I always kind of do strokes
gain total on hard courses, you know, to see who
kind of plays, because this was ranked, I think is
(26:36):
the tenth toughest course on the PGA Tour last year,
so not you know, not a total brood, but but
not easy, you know, not a pitch and putt easy
birdie fest by any means at this course.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Yeah, Kelly, anything differently, Yeah, and you're on your end.
Speaker 4 (26:49):
Now pretty much a lot, a lot of the same.
I think I'm glad West hit on that there. I
did stress. Uh, yeah, I think we get probably four
or five of the four or five evental like this
a year where you kind of we're the the length
off the tee is taken away by whatever, you know,
whatever the course is offering. Yet those long iron play
(27:10):
is still extremely important. So you're looking I think you
need to look at those guys that are really quality,
like you said, West, one hundred and seventy five, two
hundred plus yarnage guys with the long irons that are
really solid there. But yeah, otherwise you guys pretty much
hit on everything I did. Sprinkle in some part three stats.
Look at that we do it. We're dealing with what
five this week on this course, and and par five's
(27:30):
heavy for me as well, Matt, you got you gotta
score on those, like you said, and yeah, everything else
I punched in. You guys are brought up all right.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
So Wes, let's kick things off with you.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
What what ended up making your betting card this week?
Speaker 5 (27:46):
Yeah, I started and I was kind of looking at
I had no interest obviously in the really short guys,
so I had to you know, kind of go in
the mid range. I thought about Justin Thomas, but you know,
maybe priced a little bit too short, even though I
think he's gonna win relatively soon. I went with Tony
Fenow at twenty eight to one, which was a little
bit off the radar here, considering he's forty fifth last
(28:06):
week at the Players did gain strokes putting on the
poem triv which are usually not some of his better greens.
I'm kind of going with the hunt here that he
skipped the Arnold Palmer. Remember he was like the only
guy that was eligible that skipped the Arnold Palmer a
couple of weeks ago and targeted this event. Despite the
fact that he's missed the cut here three times I
think in four appearances top five here in twenty seventeen.
(28:27):
Fenwe actually has really been good with the Irons. Number
one in the field over the last twenty four rounds.
I think he's number two behind Xander over thirty six rounds.
So Tony Fenow twenty eight to one, just kind of
going with the gut there and then going with maybe
some more profile.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
And model guys the rest of the card.
Speaker 5 (28:43):
Sepstraca forty four to one, is where I got him
sixteenth at the Players last week. He was forty six
here in twenty nineteen his lone appearance here, but he
was the first round leader actually in that event and
had two really good rounds that were bookended by two.
Seventy six. Is so much better player now. He's won
twice on the tour. Always kind of want to look
for on these ball strikers paradise type of courses. So
(29:05):
Stepstrack at forty four to one, this is one I
still bet, even though the number got absolutely freaking hammered.
I wish I wasn't so busy on Monday, you know,
and doing other stuff. But everybody, the early bird gets
the wormshow, they say, and they got it with Doug
gim who I only got it forty five to one.
I saw his high as eighty on the opener, top
sixteen are better in his last five starts, so he's
(29:27):
playing terrific golf. Last twenty four rounds, eighth on approach,
fifth on strokes, gained ball striking, and then right along
Keegan Bradley forty six to one, who was the runner
up to Sam Burns here in twenty twenty one, missed
the cut horribly last week. If you look, all the
stats were good except the putting. The putting he was
one of the worst in the field and that's why
he missed the cut so badly. And then one that
really also like Doug gim that appeared on a lot
(29:49):
of my model stats, especially with the driving, was Aaron
Raye at fifty to one, who's still seeking his first
PGA Tour victory, leads the field for good drives gained
and fairways gained over the last thirty six rounds at
a place where accuracy I think is a lot more
important than distance. And then the two bombs I played.
I went with Daniel Berger and I found one hundred
(30:09):
to one at a spot on him. He's missed three
of five cuts this year after the eighteenth month injury layoff,
but the irons have been really solid. He's top twenty
in the field over the last twelve rounds.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
So you know, it's kind of.
Speaker 5 (30:22):
A little bit more of a gut that this could
be a place in Florida where he could go well
in a field that's a little bit down. You know,
it wasn't in the players field obviously last week. So
he is coming in at least fresh, and then Victor
Perez at one hundred and one.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
I was surprised to.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
See him this high, looking for his first PGA Tour win,
but multiple time winner on the DP World Tour T
sixteen at PGA National and then T three in Puerto Rico.
Eleventh on approach, tenth on ball striking, six for good
drives gained over the last twenty four rounds. So the
Frenchman Victor Perez at one hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
Kelly, I have a couple of those. I'll wait to
reveal which ones they are. I think you might be
on one of those as well, so let's head to
your card.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
Let's do that.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Only a few outrights for me this week. I definitely
sunk more money into top twenties and matchups. I'm with
you though on Feenal this week, Wes, I don't really
know what to to make that Bayhill thing because that
was that was definitely raised an eyebrow from me. But yeah,
I'm with where my numbers got got him at and
where numbers are posting for him at sportsbooks. I'm I'm
(31:29):
willing to take the chance and get involved this week.
I don't think he should be that much longer than
some of the other names that are ahead of.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Him on the board.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
So I did play him, I did him, play him
in the outright market. I did play a top twenty
on him as well, Doug gim and I think it's
going to be three for three all round. But did
play the outright price on him and played him heavy
in a in the top twenty market. Like you said, Wes,
it is five straight weeks. The way he is striping
the ball right now, it is, it is awesome, it
(31:56):
is special.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
So played him.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
Keith Mitchell played last week, went back, going back to
the well with him this week, played an outright in
a top twenty on him, real quick, just finishing other
finishing positions. I played Shaffley in Sam Burn's top ten.
This is kind of Burns place. I played a top
ten on him. He's kind of been a little erratic
for me. I'm not sure I can't get down with
that price for the outright, but at top ten at
(32:21):
plus money, I'll go to on him and Shoffley I
had to think about for a while. I mean, he
is I'm sure like mine, I'm sure on your guys bottles,
he has painted number one across the board on everything
he was for me this week.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
I hesitated at first.
Speaker 4 (32:35):
I was like, is this guy gonna be able to
mentally recover from that last week? But you know what,
Xandra Shoffley's gone through this plenty of times in his career,
so I think he should be just fine coming out
in the ball like normal. So I went top ten
on him this week. No outright had been short price.
Like you mentioned Aaron Ry, I did play in the
top twenty market two to one on him. I think
I covered everybody top twenty. Yeah, and then a couple
(32:57):
of matchups Fenale over Sun Jay Kim over Bazy notes.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
All right, well, let me tell you that Xander was
not number one in two of the three models that
I ran. It was one that we said is the
pod play and it was Doug Gim.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Doug Gim number one one.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, there we go, number one in two of the
three models I ran, and he was number four in
the other one. So, like I said, I focused heavily
on good drives. I focused heavily on approach, and specifically
approach here recently I looked at I focused pretty heavily
(33:39):
on par five scoring, which, by the way, if you
were wondering, Doug gim in this field over the last
twenty four rounds, is your number one in par five
scoring strokes game par five.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
So really really good there.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
He was number one.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
By a lot too. Like I looked at I did
thirty six. He was seven shots better than the second place,
which was menmu Lee.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
And if we look he's you know again fairways game,
if you even will look at that type of stuff,
he's you know, inside the top ten bogie avoidance, inside
the top five six. So Doug gim with a bullet
here for me as far as that goes, So pod
play for us there. Aaron Raie I also played as well,
(34:21):
so that was another one fifty five to one on Aaron.
Rye also played a top twenty on him. I will
say with the Doug Gimbet guys, he was the one
that I was talking about.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
I'm a little bit worried about his workload.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
He has played a ton of golf and he's making
all the cuts and so he's playing deep into every
single week and every so I'm a little bit worried there.
I played a top ten on him as well, which
is where I feel a little bit more comfortable with
gim But I did play the outright as well. I
did go to the top of the board. I did
play justin Thomas. I'm going back to the well here.
(34:56):
I think if he'd have shown a little bit better
last week, we wouldn't have gotten it. I had the
sixteen to one, it's fourteen to one. Now, who cares whatever?
Fourteen to one sixty one, no real, no big difference there.
If he didn't blow it last week, which by the way,
he's just awful with the putter like he was just
couldn't put it in the ocean, and he could easily
be ten to one right now.
Speaker 3 (35:17):
Yeah, he would be.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
I think he'd have been much much closer to Xander,
And so I think we're getting a little bit of
a discount here because he had a bad week last week,
which we said, Hey, by the way, that happens, you know,
I mean, like that just happens at that tournament.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
So I'm not too worried about that, and I.
Speaker 4 (35:31):
Think will back and forth between him and Fino a
man like that. I didn't want to play both of
them because I'm not super confident in either one of them.
I think right now just gut wise, but number wise,
it was I was pretty close to playing JT, and
just I think a little bit of the some of
the accuracy off the T stuff was just a little
bit too concerning for me.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
But I got that, Yeah, no, I get it.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
It was just you know, again, I just think we're
getting a discount here, and I don't want to miss
out on a number which I can get him in
weaker field at fourteen to one. So from here we
go long and this is what the model spit out.
And then I went and dug in further. And after
I dug in further, I felt like it was worthy
of making some plays here if we were to get
(36:16):
some bombs. And listen when I say this, these are
plays that I've made on guys where yes I will
bet the outright, but it is a more significant investment
in like a top forty or a you know, hey, listen,
if you're feeling froggy, maybe even a top twenty or
something like that if you want to kind of get
their ninety six percentile outcome or something.
Speaker 3 (36:35):
But these guys just fit these.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
Like shorter positional course less than driver, you know, come
on on approach type courses.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
And so I went ahead and played them.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Grayson Sigg for me, showed up inside the top twelve
in a lot, and he was sixth overall in one
of the models that I ran. And again if you
just come into what does he do well? Ninth overall
in this field last twenty four rounds, bogie avoidance, seventh
overall in this field. In scrambling, which we think these
(37:07):
guys are gonna have to do well, he's actually got
really good on approach as well over the last twenty
four rounds, like the only thing he doesn't excel at,
which is probably why he wouldn't be in the top
I don't know five. And then my models just because
he's not great on par fives or something that you know,
like he's he didn't really pop there, but every other
place really really really good. And so again, yeah, I
(37:31):
played the one seventy five to one on Grayson Sig.
But you can get plus one thirty four a top
forty if you want to be a little bit more aggressive,
you can get four to one on a top twenty
something like that.
Speaker 3 (37:41):
So same will go for these last two guys.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Alexander Byork is a dude that showed up in the
top ten of two of the three in the top
and was fifteenth in the other one. And anytime that
happens and you can get a guy that is two
hundred a one, I I just I have to make
the play right. I mean, it's just the the model
(38:05):
doesn't it doesn't add up to what the number attached
to him is. And you start to go and you
say like, hey man, what about what is what about
this Grayson sigg fella? And here's the deal. If we
say what about him, well, if we say, if we
say we're worried about second shot course, this is second
shot course, We're not worried about the off the t stuff.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
We're not worried at all.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
He has gained on approach in eight of his last
nine tournaments that he's played. He is in the positive
in ball striking in all nine of those tournaments.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
If you look, he just putts like ass.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
But if we're well, if we're not worried about that
at this tournament, because again, these are not tricky greens,
and these these are supposed to roll very very true,
so even even bad putters, that should even the playing
field a good amount. So we kind of take that out,
then Grayson Sigg really really does pop and so I'm
(38:59):
gonna lead on that heavy approach game is ball striking,
all the stuff that he does well, and hope that
the bad putting just kind of plays his way out
of the game in all of that. And then my
final guy, Max Grayerson, and and listen.
Speaker 3 (39:16):
This is another look.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
This is another Sammy Vallamachi type thing going on.
Speaker 3 (39:21):
With me here. But it was a dude that just
showed up in the models. He can't.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
He's coming off the corn ferry, so you're gonna get
some corn fairy stuff mixed in in the stats as well.
So if you're at a site that doesn't factor in
other other uh you know, other tours, and you're probably
he probably is not showing up for you at all.
But it's the same type of deal, right he made it.
He got his PGA Tour card. He's played five tournaments
on the PGA Tour. He has gained on approaching all
(39:45):
five of those. He has lost in four.
Speaker 3 (39:48):
Of the five. Putting again, he also putts like ass.
Speaker 1 (39:52):
But like we're we're, we're, We're kind of throwing that
to the side a little bit this week and focusing
on these dudes that have really have good iron plate
and maybe the bad putting will even out because it
is not a tournament in which the best putters always
seem to thrive. And so with that again, Max Grayerson,
you can get him top forty at two and a
(40:14):
half to one. You can get a top twenty at
nearly nine to one if you want to play a
super bomb outright on him. Do not put very much
money on this, but you can get like four hundred
to one, three hundred to one on Max gray or
somebody again, a guy that has just shown really well
with the iron play, and I will go ahead, and
I will go ahead and just take a shot on
(40:35):
him here in this one. Two other guys I'm considering
not on the card quite yet, but I do at
least want to mention them here on the pod in
case they do end up making it, because I don't
want this to be like you go and you add
these things that you don't These guys you don't even
talk about.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Nick Taylor showed up very like a ton all over
the place. For me.
Speaker 1 (40:53):
I don't know, I looked in your y'all's models, but
Nick Taylor inside the top fifteen in every version of
this that I ran.
Speaker 3 (41:01):
And so nicky about that ran for me.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
Yeah, so Nick Taylor at least is gonna be a
consideration for me. I don't know exactly how I'm gonna
attack it quite yet. Maybe I'll just be a head
to head type stuff like go and attack stuff with
him with with head to heads. But I thought that
that was fairly interesting. And another guy that was just
again like I don't know why, it's just so so
(41:23):
weird to me, but uh, Andrew Novak showed up a
ton for me, like very very high. And so Andrew
Novak is another guy that it's either Nick Taylor or
Andrew Novak or I don't know, hell, maybe I end
up adding both of them considering I have these like
super long bombs, which like I'm not putting very much
money on for them to win. So those are two
(41:46):
guys that showed very very well in the models for
me this week. And so Nick Taylor Andrew Novak also
in consideration.
Speaker 4 (41:53):
Yeah, he was a Novak definitely pot for me. The
one that I noticed, Nick Taylor, I pretty quickly moved
on from him though, the one that the one that
my models tell me I should be betting that I
just cannot bring myself to bet at all. Is Joel
David His I don't know. I'm guessing his just stellar
(42:13):
performance last week with the Irons has skewed his stats
so much that he has brought him into that kind
of top fifteen, top ten range in almost everything I ran.
So he's the guy I guess that if he wins,
I'm gonna feel like a moron because I should be
betting him, but I am. I am very much skipping him,
but not as right now. Don't have a problem with.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
That, Wes is who were the first couple of guys
off your card this week?
Speaker 5 (42:37):
Yeah, a couple guys that I was looking at that
I was just, you know, I was like, how much
do I want to be devoted to my model here?
Speaker 2 (42:45):
And how much am I gonna go on instinct? A
little bit.
Speaker 5 (42:48):
I thought about Sam Ryder. I know, he played really
well at the Players. I thought maybe he was gonna
be a little bit too popular and a little bit
too short in the marketplace. A guy that popped for me,
you said, Andrew nov back Andrew Potnam a little bit
for me, mainly with that, you know, how well he
drives the ball and he's a fairway finder, so I
had a little bit of bias toward that. This week,
(43:09):
Grayson Sigg also was in a couple of categories for me,
and then Christian Bezeidenhout and Lucas Glover I believe, were
two of my last leave offs this week.
Speaker 4 (43:18):
Yeah, Glover was up there for me too.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Glover was up there for me too. But I'm I
don't know that. That's just an eye test thing for me.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Like me too, That's what it was like.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
Damon has not passed the eye test to me.
Speaker 3 (43:31):
Sorry, it was one tournament.
Speaker 4 (43:32):
I saw a couple of highlights of them, but yeah,
I'm sorry. May Glover say it was the same thing. Yeah,
I like I just couldn't. I couldn't get there, Like,
I don't. I don't know why for me, I mean,
if you, I guess for me.
Speaker 1 (43:45):
With the whole Lucas Glover thing is we were like, oh,
you know, like, oh he found you know, he found
the putter and whatever and all this stuff like that.
So those tournaments that he won, he gained four point
eight and three strokes putting. Let's go to the tournament
since he lost one point eight, he lost one point six.
(44:06):
He lost to half a stroke. He lost six point one,
he lost one point four, he lost three point nine,
he lost a tenth of a stroke, he lost three
point one and then a half a stroke at the players.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
Like he's backed up putting like Lucas Glover. He putted
good for two weeks. That's it. Like losing six strokes is.
Speaker 4 (44:24):
Just impressive like that, that is just impressive.
Speaker 3 (44:27):
Yes, Like he's back to putting like Lucas Glover.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
There's just I can't go there, you know, And so
I'm not letting the model tell me anything differently, not happening. Sorry, sorry,
not not going there this week with with Lucas Glover.
All right, let's let's talk a couple of other guys
that we didn't get to here. Wes, what did you
What do we not like about Sam Burns? What do
we not like about Jordan Spieth? Why are we not
playing Brian Harmon again?
Speaker 5 (44:52):
This? Right? The price on Sam Burns. Look, he's won
here twice obviously, and you know, not quite Bermuda burn
Burns here because it is Poe trip. But he can
certainly put well here and he's proven he could do that.
But I just thought a little bit short for a guy.
Then you know, we know Sam Burns and I know
you like to bet your boy from Baton Rouge a lot, Matt,
(45:12):
but you know very well he could be a little
erratic off the tee and and that concerns me. Like
when he's informed and he's driving the ball, well, absolutely,
but you know, a little a little bit off kilter.
Jordan Spief I think certainly certainly made sense, but he
just man, he's he's a whirlwind. When you look at
these scorecards, it's like you're gonna see him make a
(45:35):
double bogey bogey and then go three birdies.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
In a row. He just doesn't make a lot of pars.
Speaker 5 (45:40):
And sometimes that's good enough, especially in an event like
this where you know you're gonna you're gonna have to
make like, okay, I make fifteen pars and you know,
three birdies. That's a hell of a round here, and
and he just doesn't put many of those rounds together.
Speaker 1 (45:54):
I don't think, Kelly, what about any of those guys
you know, sung Jay right, I mean, Keegan, what why
are we Why are we not playing these guys?
Speaker 4 (46:06):
I mean, neither of those guys, Neither of those guys
is really have really popped for me model wise in
a while. I mean, sun Jay has been not great
this year, so I mean what the past couple of weeks,
I guess a little bit better. But shoot, I'm loaded
up on a female matchup over him. I gotta see
that first from him. I would say, Brian Harmon, I
(46:29):
did have some interest in this week. I I did
dig into him a fair amount, ended up passing on,
but I do do kind of like him this week's
speeth I had no interest in. You know, Cameron Young,
I feel like me and you have been kind of
been going back and forth on him West like this
is one of those, you know, one of those events
where I think some of my you know, some some
(46:51):
models I was running was he was popping in and
it looks like a good bed, and others, you know,
not so much. So yeah, I did just some of
those times it was easy to pass on and pass on.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
All right, guys, again, every single one of our plays
you can find over at vson dot com. We will
put them in, plug them into the computer again. Not
only us, but everybody else is betting golf over at
vson dot com this year podcast absolutely free. So we
haven't done so already. Please go ahead hit that subscribe
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that as well, and if you want to follow us
(47:22):
on Twitter machine If you have any questions, we're always
here to answer those for you too. For Wes, for Kelly,
I'm Matt. Good luck on all your valsbar bets
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here
on the Vison podcast network.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
It is the Vowspar edition.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin coming to you and fellas,
we'll do a quick recap of last week. And we
said it on the We said it on the pod
that you know, kind of jokingly but not really, if
there was ever a week to play the Winner without Market,
that maybe it would be this week. And we didn't
(00:40):
know that it was going to turn out to be
actually true that you wanted to play the Winner without
Market with Scotti Scheffler. But Scotti Scheffler comes from behind,
gets it done. He's the best golfer on the planet.
I don't think it's hyperbole to already start talking about
him being in the short list of some of the
best golfers that we've ever seen play the game, because
he is is the most consistent golfer on the planet
(01:03):
for the last several years, and if he can actually
put it's going to be it's just going to be ridiculous.
You guys had Xander outrights, Wes had Harmon as well,
I had, I had Wyndham Clark. None of us get home.
We have to hedge our asses off just to try
and break even on the week. So it is what
it was, Kelly. I texted you and said, I have
(01:23):
hedged around in a circle so many times now that
I've just like I don't even know what's going on
like with all this, but I at least didn't lose
money this past week. It just kind of kind of
is what it is. You said you had a nice
little week there.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Yeah, it was the best tournament the year by far
for me, even without getting Xander home. But that, you know,
typically Calf the Circuit Sports for posting those yes nos,
Thank god for that.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I was shocked when he was.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
I was shocked at Xander with a what do you
have a one stroke lead heading into the final round? Right?
He was minus one fifty on the no with with
the names that were around him. So I almost broke
my fingers betting that.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
But yeah, good weekend.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Three or four finishing positions got home, swept matchups, So
it was about as good of a tournament as you
could have without hitting and out right, and yes, this
is welcome to betting golf if you're new, because I'm
still frustrated as hell after that event because I have
not hit a pre tournament out right yet this year.
And Matt, I think for everybody who didn't catch the
(02:19):
Friday edition, you said it perfectly. The man would have
to literally break his neck apparently to not win that
tournament because he was still looked stiff and flustered by
it on Saturday. And then Sunday comes and oh, there's
nuclear Scottie Scheffler doing everything and looking great on every shot.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Yeah, Wes, it was you know, you and I were
together on Sunday morning. We kind of saw him creeping
up the leaderboard. It almost felt weirdly inevitable, and we.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Were resigned to our fate.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
Yeah, it almost felt weirdly inevitable. And it was one
of those things where we sit there and go, well,
it's Scottie Scheffler, So what are we gonna do about it?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You know?
Speaker 3 (02:57):
What can we do?
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (02:58):
I mean here here was the difference.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
And you know, a small change for me just taking
a little piece of Scheffler, but eighty point four percent
driving accuracy for Scottie Scheffler last week. That was number one,
by the way in the field. If the guys that
made the cutch, that was if you want to look
for a statistical difference, that was a difference between him
and like Schoflet and Clark and those guys. I think
(03:20):
was just the driving accuracy. He gained a little bit
with the putter for the week, gained it most early
in the week, and then never had a three putt.
By the way, that's two straight events that Scotty Scheffler
has not had a three pot. And we know he's
at least good for a couple most weeks, even when
he strikes the ball so beautifully, but gets it done again.
First ever winner of the Players Championship in back to
(03:42):
back years that had never been done before. He's actually
the first world number one on the PGA Tour to
win events in two consecutive weeks, believe it or not
since twenty twelve when Rory McElroy won two FedEx Cut
playoff events. So and Wyndham Clark Man Poor Wyndam Clark
Brides made again two weeks in a row. That's the
last last time you've had the same golfers finish one
(04:02):
to two on the PGA Tour. I believe since it
was Gil Morgan and Lannie Watkins in nineteen eighty three,
we remember that like it was yesterday, of course.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
And then once.
Speaker 5 (04:12):
Again Xander Schoffle thirty four straight events, has not been
able to close out a win, and you know, it's
becoming to the point where it's like, hey, you can
call him a great talent, but can you call him
a great player yet? Because he just is not. He's
won I mean, he's won Olympic gold, don't get me wrong,
He's won a big event before, but still has not
won that major, still has not won the players and
(04:34):
just something's always missing, just one little thing goes wrong
and he just can't get at home. And you know,
you got to play almost dead solid perfect to beat
Scotti Scheffler. You got to hope that he plays kind
of like mediocre to solid good but not great, and
he played a lot better than solid good.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
And Kelly, listen, this is one of those things where
you know, I talked about it with you on the
After the Cut pod, I talked about with Wes on air,
and you know, all this today we do the best
we can, right, we're recording these things on Tuesday, and
you know, sometimes bets get at it, and it's one
of those things for me, the Windom Clark thing. I'm
(05:13):
sitting in bed on Wednesday night, literally at eleven o'clock
at night, and I do one last little you know,
peruse of the odds and see that a book here
in town where he had drifted all the way to
fifty three to one, which was like not only the
best price in the market, but the best price in
the market buy a lot, and he ends up getting
added to the betting card. Like, I get it. It
doesn't help anyone out there, and it makes me I
(05:36):
feel I it sucks, but at the same time, like
I don't feel bad, Like we're betters, We're going to
make bets and not every single one is going to
to kind of show up with all of that. I
did have a couple of people say like, oh, yeah,
convenient that you had a Wyndham Clark ticket. But it's
just one of those deals where you know, look, even
if I posted it to the website, it's eleven o'clock
(05:58):
at night. The guys were teen off in like four
and a half hours, you know, like what it's not
going to it's not gonna get in anyway, right, And
so you know, we do the best we can. We
try to put all this stuff out there as much
as we can, but they're going to be laid ads
if if if numbers drift and things like that, and
you know, we're better and we're trying to take advantage
of of stuff like that as well. And so all
(06:20):
I can say is we're gonna give you the most
that we can give you, and we're gonna try the
best we can. But you might not get every single
everything that makes it onto the card every week.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Yeah. No, this look, we have to record a podcast.
We have to record it a certain time. We can
only give you everything that we've bet up to the
up until that point. There's always going to be things, uh,
you know, live live through a turn is four. Part
of the reason why we love betting golf so much
is there's four freaking days of action.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
It is.
Speaker 4 (06:46):
It is a short futures ticket or a long single
game ticket, think about it that way. So it gives
us different opportunities to get bet in game throughout four
days span. And that's that's just what happens. I mean
you're gonna, but you're gonna something that drifts to a
certain number you're going to play.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
I guess the other thing is I would have felt
I guess I would have felt bad if we hadn't
even talked about Wyndham Clark at all. But we brought up,
like we said, this guy or that guy, and we
talked about it, and I actually talked about that. I
actually liked Wyndham Clark, and my model liked Windham Clark
a little bit better I think than then, you know,
was showing up on y'all's end and stuff, and so
you know, again, it just kind of is what it
is with all that. But Wes at the end of
the day, I mean, if Scotty just and we've said
(07:27):
this for six months now, said it for a year
now actually, but you know, if Scotty just puts even,
he was going to be in the top five of
every single tournament. And if he puts like positive, he's
going to literally probably be right there, you know, in
just about every single tournament that he plays. And I'm
probably not going to be playing five to one and
(07:48):
four and a half to one and four to one.
Scotty Scheffler in these tournaments with the best players in
the world. But if somebody wants to come to me
and say, hey, I want to start playing these winner
without markets and stuff like, I don't think I'm going
to talk him off the ledge until we see something
different from Scotty because he was already the best ball
striker in the world. He was one of the very
best drivers in the world. He's been good around the greens.
The only thing lacking was the putter. And if he's
(08:09):
going to put like this, it's going to be very,
very tough to beat that dude.
Speaker 5 (08:14):
Yeah, no question about it. Look, it seems like he
knocks it to within twelve feet like on every single hole,
and you know eventually you're gonna make a few of those,
and he certainly is.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
So.
Speaker 5 (08:24):
Look, I think probably top ten, top ten Scottie. You
know every single time you're gonna get something out of it.
And I forget the listener who tweeted at us last
week did the same thing, and that's what you have
to do. Look, am I gonna bet him plus four
fifty at the Masters?
Speaker 2 (08:40):
No?
Speaker 5 (08:40):
You know, if you got eight or ten to one,
good on you. You got a really good number. But no,
I'm not gonna bet him for the Masters, but probably
you're gonna have to lay big to lay top ten.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
But I can't argue against it.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
I'll keep bet you tough.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Yeah, I mean, I'll keep bett I've bet him three
tournaments straight top ten.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I don't care what the number is.
Speaker 4 (08:59):
I'll keep betting it until it ends up going the
other way on me, especially especially ride in this hot putter.
I mean, like, while the putter's working, I ain't going
away now, So I'll stay right there with him, and
I'll stay keep betting top twenties with Doug gim till
those wheels fall off. Maybe a little teaser for this episode. Yeah,
Like I said, you can. You can get all of
(09:19):
our our plays.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
You know that we have by the time we record
this here on this podcast, of course, But if you
want to become a Vson Pro subscriber, you can use
the promo code golf g o l F. If you do,
we'll give you forty one dollars off of an annual subscription,
which will help you keep track of all the plays
that get put in by not only the three of us,
but we also have other golf betters at the network
as well, so those will all be logged over at
(09:40):
vson dot com as well, so be sure and take
advantage of that. Again, an annual subscription for forty one
dollars off if you use the promo code golf g
O l F. Guys, this was the first week. If
you're sitting here wondering if you were going to get
around the world west, the answer is yes. It's just
in a separate podcast in your feed if you're already
a subscriber, so it will be waiting on you.
Speaker 3 (10:02):
Just look in your feet.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
And by the way, if you're not already describer, go
ahead and hit the subscribe.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
But it's absolutely free.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
It doesn't cost you a single penny to be a
subscriber to this here podcast, so be sure and take
advantage of that. As we have now broke that off
into its own separate entity. Kelly and Wes went over
his picks for this week, and you know, Kelly, this
was something we had had talked about for a little
bit and there was a lot of people who were saying, hey, man,
I like betting these alt tournaments, and so we're gonna
(10:28):
give a little bit more love to them here moving forward.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
Yeah, absolutely, over in Singapore this week. I think for
anybody who listens to this podcast regularly, hopefully, I'm assuming
you're gonna like it one way or the other. Either
you scrubbed through past though Around the World with Wes
Reynolds because you just wanted to get the PGA Tour stuff,
or you were like, all right, let me scrub through
and find the spot where they actually talk with Wes
(10:51):
about it. So guess what, We've just taken those and
separated it for you. Now you can just load up
each podcast separately, PGA Tour with all three of us
and then Wes Around World with West Reynolds a separate
one though amazing.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
We should highlight all the great work that West does,
and of course you can find his article over on
vson dot com as well. But onto the bas Bar Championship.
It is the Copperhead Course over at Innisbrook. It is
in Palm Harbor, Florida, and if we look at the
odds board, it's a There are some top guys in
the field this week, but it is not quite as
deep at the top as it has been of course
(11:23):
the last couple of weeks where we've had these elevated events.
Xander Schoffley is gonna play. He's sitting at six and
a half to one. Sam Burns two time winner here,
twelve to one, Justin Thomas fourteen to one, Jordan Speith
eighteen to one, Brian Harmon coming off of his kind
of heartbreak last week at eighteen to one, I mean
twenty to one, Cam Young twenty two, Feenal twenty five,
(11:44):
as is Sung Jay Minwu Lee I Leganandi listen, he's
he's lingering. He's made all his cuts since last June.
Thirty to one for him, Sceptstraca thirty five, as is
Nick Taylor and Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin and then everybody
else is forty to one or longer in this West
when you look at the odds board, obviously Xander gonna
(12:05):
be the favorite here. He is the class of the field.
That being said, I have absolutely if I didn't have
any interest in betten Zander when you guys got him
at sixteen or seventeen to one last week, I sure
as held on having any interest At six and a
half to one again, the guy just cannot close out tournaments.
It's it's I mean, you woulda bet him top five
plus one seventy five all day long. Fine, I will,
(12:25):
I will not talk you off of it, but plus
six fifty to win, no way, no how for me.
Any when you were looking at the odds board, did
anything kind of stand out to you at the top
up here?
Speaker 5 (12:34):
Yeah, he was shortened a little bit because Patrick cantlay
Withdrew over the weekend he was supposed to play.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
But he is out.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Sam Burns obviously two time winner here back to back
twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, so not surprised to
see him short. Justin Thomas has had a good history here,
third and tenth here in the last two years. Jordan's
FIFA has won here before, so not surprising that that's
put into the market. And then of course Brian Harmon
finished fifth here in twenty twenty two, but has also
(13:02):
missed the cut here in five of the last six years.
So former champions by the way, other than Burns and
speed Doo I mentioned that are in this field. Taylor
Moore eighty to one, I believe is what I saw
early on to defend his title. Adam had wins sixty
to one, who did win here in twenty seventeen, And
then you mentioned the mid and rage f now young
son Jay minwoo Lee, Eric Cole, Geigan Bradley, Nick Taylor
(13:24):
in that middle price.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
I know there was one name I was surprised I
didn't see on the odds board Matt when I first
pulled it up, and it was a guy who's been
cruising through Florida.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
His name is Shane lowry Well.
Speaker 4 (13:34):
I figured out while doing Around the World with Wes
Reynolds earlier that he's over at Singapore this week for
some reason. Yeah, I mean, like you've been tearing it
up at Florida. I don't know why the hell the
hell you're doing that, but clearly he's got to hold
on to that DP World Tour card or whatever and
get out of there.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
But he took the trip over there, as did Matchew Pavone,
who of course won earlier this year at the Farmers
Insurance Open. So couple PGA Tour regulars over there this
week along with Paul Casey.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
Yeah, if we if we look at the schedule, of course,
they're all eyes are just counting down here to the Masters.
That being said, we have the valspar this week, We've
got the Texas Children's Houston opened that is over in
Houston next week. Then after that we have the Valero,
and then we get to the Masters and Wes. It's
it's one of those things where you know, a lot
(14:20):
of these guys might play one of these is kind
of a tune up towards the Masters. We used to
see a lot of guys just skip all three of them.
But I think that the I think we've kind of
got a different type of mindset now with with some
of these dudes that are looking a little bit more
like you know what, like sitting out for three weeks
actually isn't the greatest idea for me, And so I expect,
(14:41):
you know, we have we of course we have some
decent we have some decent names playing this week. I
imagine we'll get a handful next week and maybe even
a handful at the Valero. But we won't get them
all at the same time, No.
Speaker 2 (14:51):
We won't.
Speaker 5 (14:52):
I think we will get maybe more in Houston next
week because Houston was in was a fall event actually
for a couple of years, because I remember when it
was all is the Shelle Houston Open, when it was
at TPC Woodlands, it was always the week before and
it always got a really really stellar field, but uh
maybe maybe some investment here and ed, you know, guys
trying to convince players to come. It is Jim Crane,
(15:14):
who is the owner of the Houston Astros. He's the
guy kind of organizes this event, puts it on.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Moved it to Memorial Park. Memorial Park, I.
Speaker 5 (15:22):
Should say, so you've already got some big names by
the way, announced Fenale Clark, Xalatoris Scheffler, Saheith Thigala. Uh,
those are the guys that are just already announced. I
expect you're gonna have a few more go ahead and
play next week as well.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, Kelly, I one of the things that you already
you already mentioned this and we'll we'll bring it up again.
I am at least starting to monitor a little bit
some of these guys schedules just to see, like, you know,
who's who's been playing a ton, who might be wearing down,
who might be looking to take a break somewhere along
the way. With all of this, I one of the
guys on my card that is actually the only real
(15:57):
concern that I have entering this week too. So it's
something we used to talk about with sun Jay all
the time, like sung Jay played every single friggin' event
like on the calendar, and we were like, dude, no
wonder by the time you played your eighth event in
a row that you're you know, you're finally you know,
starting to get sloppy and stuff with everything. So I
you know, I did look a little bit at some
of these guys schedules, which made me a little a
(16:20):
little nervous on a couple of different guys. How did
you start to monitor that stuff? And have you started
look at this as we head into the uh end
of the Masters.
Speaker 4 (16:27):
Yeah, a little bit. I think it's something to be
aware of. I think that also when you get these
fields that are a little lighter, uh, it's I mean,
I want to speak for you guys. I think for
me though, it was there wasn't as much jumping right
out to me this week of or it was a
pretty clean break of Okay, I'm gonna bet this guy,
this guy, this guy, and then I've got no interest
beyond that, uh in some of these guys. But yeah, no,
(16:49):
I it's definitely something to monitor be aware of. I'm
pretty sure Eric Cole has played professionally every single week
ever since I first heard his name. Uh, so like yeah,
I mean, yeah, it is some I mean, look like
we just brought up Shane Lowry, Like that's like that
travel schedule is ridiculous?
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Are you kidding me?
Speaker 4 (17:06):
Like you play three straight weeks in Florida and then
you're going over to Singapore and then you're gonna go
back and try I mean, I don't know what his
plans are next few weeks. You would think he's probably
gonna take a week or two off, but yeah, everybody's different.
You know, Scheffler always played, he always plays typically down
to Texas, right one of those right west. So like yeah, yeah,
(17:26):
like you're talking about Matt, Yeah you're I'm sorry you
said that. Like you're talking about Matt. I think I
think we should expect all these guys to kind of
tee it up one of these next couple of tournaments
before the Masters. But that's probably about all you're gonna get.
I wish that they would swap uh this week, now
that we've kind of seen what this new schedule looks like,
I really wish they'd swap this tournament and the players, uh,
(17:47):
just because I think this is such a great tournament,
such a great course and it kind of just gets
a lighter field every year, and really which I really
wish it was highlighted a little bit more.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Well, let's get to it, Wes. We are talking about
the copper Head course. If you go to Innisbrook Golf
colbe there are four different courses there, Copperhead the most
famous in Copperhead where we're going to be playing the
vals Bar this week. They're in Palm Harbor, not too
far outside of Tampa. And you know, West's course is
one of those in which a little bit different than
(18:18):
I mean, we have some hints of what we've seen
the last couple of weeks, but this one truly truly
your positional course where I don't think we're going to
be valuing distance off the tee at all.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
No, not at all. And you mentioned the Copperhead course
in Innisbrook.
Speaker 5 (18:33):
Palm Harbor, about oh twenty miles away from Tampa and
Saint Pete, so it's basically in that area. And it's
actually if you really kind of look at how the
course is laid out, it's not like your typical Florida course.
It's very much like a Carolina's type of course, you know,
very tree line par seventy one seventy three forty six
(18:54):
narrowest fairways off the tee, by the way on the
tour twenty seven point five on average tree line fairways.
You got some elevation changes. He got some dog legs
here and even double dog legs hole which Larry Packard
was the redesigner or the original designer of this course
in nineteen seventy four and then it got renovated in
twenty fifteen. Got water and play on six of the
eighteen holes, seventy four bunkers. There are actually five par
(19:17):
threes here, which is very unique for a par seventy
one layout. Four par fives and just nine par fours,
so you know, you do have the toughest stretch of holes.
Is actually, you know, we talk about the bear trap
at PG National, the closing stretch here at sixteen through
eighteen is called the snake bit, which is, you know, basically, yeah,
there we go, snakes, there we go.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
Pars are good all four days here.
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Basically no valspar actually read this, no valspar winner in
the history of the tournament has played the snake pit
under par for the entire tournament. So, like I said,
pars are very good scores here fairways and rough rye overseed.
They actually have grown out the rough and made it
a little bit tougher because I think when Burns won
it was seventeen hunnerd It's like, wait, this course is
(20:01):
getting too easy. And then all they did was they
grew out the rough and then they moved thicker rough
closer to the greens. And what was the winner last
year ten under par, So you know that's about what
they want here the greens. The Bermuda is a little
bit more dormant, so it's mostly Poe triv like it
was last week.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
At the Players at TPC Sawgrass.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
If you're looking for correlated courses, obviously the aforementioned Sawgrass,
Harbor Town Colonial, TPC, South Wind TPC San Antonio TPC
River Highlands, So it should be players really like this course,
even though it's a very tough course. So I think
probably ten to twelve under is going to be the
winning score yet again.
Speaker 3 (20:42):
Yeah, Kelly, when when we looked at at.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
The course, just the way that it sets up, it's
a it's a less than driver set up for the
vast majority of this and so what it really does
is we talked about last week it was a definitely
a first shot course, whereas this is going to be
definitely a second shot course because you're gonna have most
people ending up relatively in the same area so long
(21:06):
as they're hitting it in the fairway. Now, these are
these are small fairways, and so they could certainly end
up in the rough, and it's it's hard to hit
these fairways. But if you do hit the fairway, you're
not really gonna be that much differently positioned than the
other guys. So it really comes down to the dudes
with the irons. And so you know as to where
last week we were saying, hey, no, there's so much water,
there's so much where like you've got it. You've gotta
(21:28):
be good off the tee. It has to be a priority.
This week not so much.
Speaker 4 (21:32):
Yeah, yeah, I think, uh, you know, accuracy for different reasons. Right,
like you said, first shot course last week, you just
need to keep it out of the damn water, you know,
rough maybe not as hazardous last week is what you're
gonna see this week. And mean, these are these are
really fit fairways of what we're talking about. And then
I mean three and three quarter inches is what we're
talking about rough.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Height like that.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
I mean that is a beast when you're talking talking
about rough length. So yeah, it is like you said,
I mean it is all about accuracy off the tea
this week. Try to keep it in the fairway. And
then you got to hit extremely accurate second second shots
into some smallish greens, uh up up up top there,
(22:14):
like you said, wet some different different around the green
difficulties too. Uh you know, added to this course. It's uh,
it levels the playing field a little bit. I think
when you take away just even the option of the
distance off the tee, that's I think that knows why
you get a lot of people, a lot of the
guys saying they love playing this course. Uh you know,
maybe not the guys who are the longest off the
te box. It feels like it gives them a bit
(22:36):
more of a chance. So yeah, it is. It's fascinating.
I think it's a I think every every year I
watched this tournament, it always shocks me. How like you know,
kind of like you hinted that West, it don't it
doesn't really feel like you're in Florida anymore. Like after
the players, you're like, where's all the water at like.
Speaker 5 (22:52):
Yeah, exactly, it's fairways and greens here. I know that's
gonna sound overlea cliche, but you know, fairways and greens,
ball strike paradise. I heard some quotes I have some
Ted Scott, who's now Scottie Scheffler's caddy, you know, said basically,
you got to play boring golf here, you know, hit
the fairways and hit the greens. You know, a tough course,
but a fair course. So I actually I actually liked
(23:15):
this event. I think you know, you get a condensed leaderboard,
you get different type of players up there.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
So I've actually liked this event over the years.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Guys are gonna take a quick break. When we come back,
we'll let you know what we threw into our models
this week, what it spit out, and what plays ended
up on our betting card. Coming back here on long Shots.
It is long Shots here on the Beson Podcast Network.
Matt Brown, Kelly Bilin, Wes Reynolds coming to your reminder.
Promo code Golf forty one dollars off an annual subscription
(23:46):
over Vison dot com for a Vson Pro subscription, get
all the picks, all the plays, not just for golf,
but for every single sport over there on vson dot com.
So guys, like we said, I less than driver stuff,
So I didn't really focus very much this week on
off the t stuff. Very heavy on approach, very heavy
(24:06):
on par five scoring, very heavy on bogey avoidance, and
very heavy on scrambling outside of that. Really, just kind
of good drives was what I was looking for, because
you know, like I said, it's gonna be hard to
hit these fairways, so as long as you're not spraying
it missing it too far, I'm gonna be okay with that.
But you know, Wes, I don't know what if you
(24:28):
did anything differently in your models.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
But I didn't get too too crazy this week.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
I just kind of loaded up on the stuff that
I felt was super important and then tried to decipher
what the models told me from there.
Speaker 5 (24:41):
Yeah, approach was number one for me because if you
look the the greens and regulation rate by the way
here at Innisbrook just fifty six point eight percent, that's
one of the lower on tour. So the last seven
years at the vast Bar, the winner has averaged six
or better on approach during their respective winning week.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
So I thought approach was very important in terms of.
Speaker 5 (25:00):
Off the tee, I did a little combo platter of
good drives gained and fairways gained. This week, players only
hit the fairway about fifty six percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
They're really narrow.
Speaker 5 (25:10):
They take dry less than driver off the tee. So
you're gonna see a lot of three woods, a lot
of hybrids, a lot of irons here. So I think
that that brings a lot of the shorter hitters into
play in terms of I did bogie avoidance for scoring too,
because you are going to make some bogeis out here,
even though the greens really are are relatively fair and
easy to put on, relatively smooth. So I don't think
(25:31):
this turns necessarily into a putting contest. But you know,
certainly you can be a lot more aggressive here on
putts and not worry about Okay, if you hit it
four or five feet by that you've got like a
double breaker or something back. It's very fair. So looked
a little bit at that. I did look at scrambling,
by the way, where I said that this course was
made tougher, the scrambling rate was like sixty six point
(25:54):
seven percent getting up and down in twenty twenty two,
last year it was only fifty nine points eight percent.
That's a big difference for one year, you know, and
it really wasn't a weather issue, is the Beau because
the rough that sticker was moved closer to the greens,
so you know, you got to chip it out of there,
and you got to be tidy with the short game.
I did strokes gain par fives as well, because those
(26:14):
are the four easiest holes and you're gonna have to
take advantage in terms of the proximity buckets. About over
half of the shots are going to be one seventy
five and out, So if you want to look at
one seventy five to two hundred or two hundred plus,
you certainly could do that. And then I did a
little context thing that I always kind of do strokes
gain total on hard courses, you know, to see who
kind of plays, because this was ranked, I think is
(26:36):
the tenth toughest course on the PGA Tour last year,
so not you know, not a total brood, but but
not easy, you know, not a pitch and putt easy
birdie fest by any means at this course.
Speaker 3 (26:47):
Yeah, Kelly, anything differently, Yeah, and you're on your end.
Speaker 4 (26:49):
Now pretty much a lot, a lot of the same.
I think I'm glad West hit on that there. I
did stress. Uh, yeah, I think we get probably four
or five of the four or five evental like this
a year where you kind of we're the the length
off the tee is taken away by whatever, you know,
whatever the course is offering. Yet those long iron play
(27:10):
is still extremely important. So you're looking I think you
need to look at those guys that are really quality,
like you said, West, one hundred and seventy five, two
hundred plus yarnage guys with the long irons that are
really solid there. But yeah, otherwise you guys pretty much
hit on everything I did. Sprinkle in some part three stats.
Look at that we do it. We're dealing with what
five this week on this course, and and par five's
(27:30):
heavy for me as well, Matt, you got you gotta
score on those, like you said, and yeah, everything else
I punched in. You guys are brought up all right.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
So Wes, let's kick things off with you.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
What what ended up making your betting card this week?
Speaker 5 (27:46):
Yeah, I started and I was kind of looking at
I had no interest obviously in the really short guys,
so I had to you know, kind of go in
the mid range. I thought about Justin Thomas, but you know,
maybe priced a little bit too short, even though I
think he's gonna win relatively soon. I went with Tony
Fenow at twenty eight to one, which was a little
bit off the radar here, considering he's forty fifth last
(28:06):
week at the Players did gain strokes putting on the
poem triv which are usually not some of his better greens.
I'm kind of going with the hunt here that he
skipped the Arnold Palmer. Remember he was like the only
guy that was eligible that skipped the Arnold Palmer a
couple of weeks ago and targeted this event. Despite the
fact that he's missed the cut here three times I
think in four appearances top five here in twenty seventeen.
(28:27):
Fenwe actually has really been good with the Irons. Number
one in the field over the last twenty four rounds.
I think he's number two behind Xander over thirty six rounds.
So Tony Fenow twenty eight to one, just kind of
going with the gut there and then going with maybe
some more profile.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
And model guys the rest of the card.
Speaker 5 (28:43):
Sepstraca forty four to one, is where I got him
sixteenth at the Players last week. He was forty six
here in twenty nineteen his lone appearance here, but he
was the first round leader actually in that event and
had two really good rounds that were bookended by two.
Seventy six. Is so much better player now. He's won
twice on the tour. Always kind of want to look
for on these ball strikers paradise type of courses. So
(29:05):
Stepstrack at forty four to one, this is one I
still bet, even though the number got absolutely freaking hammered.
I wish I wasn't so busy on Monday, you know,
and doing other stuff. But everybody, the early bird gets
the wormshow, they say, and they got it with Doug
gim who I only got it forty five to one.
I saw his high as eighty on the opener, top
sixteen are better in his last five starts, so he's
(29:27):
playing terrific golf. Last twenty four rounds, eighth on approach,
fifth on strokes, gained ball striking, and then right along
Keegan Bradley forty six to one, who was the runner
up to Sam Burns here in twenty twenty one, missed
the cut horribly last week. If you look, all the
stats were good except the putting. The putting he was
one of the worst in the field and that's why
he missed the cut so badly. And then one that
really also like Doug gim that appeared on a lot
(29:49):
of my model stats, especially with the driving, was Aaron
Raye at fifty to one, who's still seeking his first
PGA Tour victory, leads the field for good drives gained
and fairways gained over the last thirty six rounds at
a place where accuracy I think is a lot more
important than distance. And then the two bombs I played.
I went with Daniel Berger and I found one hundred
(30:09):
to one at a spot on him. He's missed three
of five cuts this year after the eighteenth month injury layoff,
but the irons have been really solid. He's top twenty
in the field over the last twelve rounds.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
So you know, it's kind of.
Speaker 5 (30:22):
A little bit more of a gut that this could
be a place in Florida where he could go well
in a field that's a little bit down. You know,
it wasn't in the players field obviously last week. So
he is coming in at least fresh, and then Victor
Perez at one hundred and one.
Speaker 2 (30:35):
I was surprised to.
Speaker 5 (30:36):
See him this high, looking for his first PGA Tour win,
but multiple time winner on the DP World Tour T
sixteen at PGA National and then T three in Puerto Rico.
Eleventh on approach, tenth on ball striking, six for good
drives gained over the last twenty four rounds. So the
Frenchman Victor Perez at one hundred to one.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
Kelly, I have a couple of those. I'll wait to
reveal which ones they are. I think you might be
on one of those as well, so let's head to
your card.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
Let's do that.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
Only a few outrights for me this week. I definitely
sunk more money into top twenties and matchups. I'm with
you though on Feenal this week, Wes, I don't really
know what to to make that Bayhill thing because that
was that was definitely raised an eyebrow from me. But yeah,
I'm with where my numbers got got him at and
where numbers are posting for him at sportsbooks. I'm I'm
(31:29):
willing to take the chance and get involved this week.
I don't think he should be that much longer than
some of the other names that are ahead of.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Him on the board.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
So I did play him, I did him, play him
in the outright market. I did play a top twenty
on him as well, Doug gim and I think it's
going to be three for three all round. But did
play the outright price on him and played him heavy
in a in the top twenty market. Like you said, Wes,
it is five straight weeks. The way he is striping
the ball right now, it is, it is awesome, it
(31:56):
is special.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
So played him.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
Keith Mitchell played last week, went back, going back to
the well with him this week, played an outright in
a top twenty on him, real quick, just finishing other
finishing positions. I played Shaffley in Sam Burn's top ten.
This is kind of Burns place. I played a top
ten on him. He's kind of been a little erratic
for me. I'm not sure I can't get down with
that price for the outright, but at top ten at
(32:21):
plus money, I'll go to on him and Shoffley I
had to think about for a while. I mean, he
is I'm sure like mine, I'm sure on your guys bottles,
he has painted number one across the board on everything
he was for me this week.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
I hesitated at first.
Speaker 4 (32:35):
I was like, is this guy gonna be able to
mentally recover from that last week? But you know what,
Xandra Shoffley's gone through this plenty of times in his career,
so I think he should be just fine coming out
in the ball like normal. So I went top ten
on him this week. No outright had been short price.
Like you mentioned Aaron Ry, I did play in the
top twenty market two to one on him. I think
I covered everybody top twenty. Yeah, and then a couple
(32:57):
of matchups Fenale over Sun Jay Kim over Bazy notes.
Speaker 1 (33:02):
All right, well, let me tell you that Xander was
not number one in two of the three models that
I ran. It was one that we said is the
pod play and it was Doug Gim.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Doug Gim number one one.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Yeah, there we go, number one in two of the
three models I ran, and he was number four in
the other one. So, like I said, I focused heavily
on good drives. I focused heavily on approach, and specifically
approach here recently I looked at I focused pretty heavily
(33:39):
on par five scoring, which, by the way, if you
were wondering, Doug gim in this field over the last
twenty four rounds, is your number one in par five
scoring strokes game par five.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
So really really good there.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
He was number one.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
By a lot too. Like I looked at I did
thirty six. He was seven shots better than the second place,
which was menmu Lee.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
And if we look he's you know again fairways game,
if you even will look at that type of stuff,
he's you know, inside the top ten bogie avoidance, inside
the top five six. So Doug gim with a bullet
here for me as far as that goes, So pod
play for us there. Aaron Raie I also played as well,
(34:21):
so that was another one fifty five to one on Aaron.
Rye also played a top twenty on him. I will
say with the Doug Gimbet guys, he was the one
that I was talking about.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
I'm a little bit worried about his workload.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
He has played a ton of golf and he's making
all the cuts and so he's playing deep into every
single week and every so I'm a little bit worried there.
I played a top ten on him as well, which
is where I feel a little bit more comfortable with
gim But I did play the outright as well. I
did go to the top of the board. I did
play justin Thomas. I'm going back to the well here.
(34:56):
I think if he'd have shown a little bit better
last week, we wouldn't have gotten it. I had the
sixteen to one, it's fourteen to one. Now, who cares whatever?
Fourteen to one sixty one, no real, no big difference there.
If he didn't blow it last week, which by the way,
he's just awful with the putter like he was just
couldn't put it in the ocean, and he could easily
be ten to one right now.
Speaker 3 (35:17):
Yeah, he would be.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
I think he'd have been much much closer to Xander,
And so I think we're getting a little bit of
a discount here because he had a bad week last week,
which we said, Hey, by the way, that happens, you know,
I mean, like that just happens at that tournament.
Speaker 3 (35:28):
So I'm not too worried about that, and I.
Speaker 4 (35:31):
Think will back and forth between him and Fino a
man like that. I didn't want to play both of
them because I'm not super confident in either one of them.
I think right now just gut wise, but number wise,
it was I was pretty close to playing JT, and
just I think a little bit of the some of
the accuracy off the T stuff was just a little
bit too concerning for me.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
But I got that, Yeah, no, I get it.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
It was just you know, again, I just think we're
getting a discount here, and I don't want to miss
out on a number which I can get him in
weaker field at fourteen to one. So from here we
go long and this is what the model spit out.
And then I went and dug in further. And after
I dug in further, I felt like it was worthy
of making some plays here if we were to get
(36:16):
some bombs. And listen when I say this, these are
plays that I've made on guys where yes I will
bet the outright, but it is a more significant investment
in like a top forty or a you know, hey, listen,
if you're feeling froggy, maybe even a top twenty or
something like that if you want to kind of get
their ninety six percentile outcome or something.
Speaker 3 (36:35):
But these guys just fit these.
Speaker 1 (36:37):
Like shorter positional course less than driver, you know, come
on on approach type courses.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
And so I went ahead and played them.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Grayson Sigg for me, showed up inside the top twelve
in a lot, and he was sixth overall in one
of the models that I ran. And again if you
just come into what does he do well? Ninth overall
in this field last twenty four rounds, bogie avoidance, seventh
overall in this field. In scrambling, which we think these
(37:07):
guys are gonna have to do well, he's actually got
really good on approach as well over the last twenty
four rounds, like the only thing he doesn't excel at,
which is probably why he wouldn't be in the top
I don't know five. And then my models just because
he's not great on par fives or something that you know,
like he's he didn't really pop there, but every other
place really really really good. And so again, yeah, I
(37:31):
played the one seventy five to one on Grayson Sig.
But you can get plus one thirty four a top
forty if you want to be a little bit more aggressive,
you can get four to one on a top twenty
something like that.
Speaker 3 (37:41):
So same will go for these last two guys.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Alexander Byork is a dude that showed up in the
top ten of two of the three in the top
and was fifteenth in the other one. And anytime that
happens and you can get a guy that is two
hundred a one, I I just I have to make
the play right. I mean, it's just the the model
(38:05):
doesn't it doesn't add up to what the number attached
to him is. And you start to go and you
say like, hey man, what about what is what about
this Grayson sigg fella? And here's the deal. If we
say what about him, well, if we say, if we
say we're worried about second shot course, this is second
shot course, We're not worried about the off the t stuff.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
We're not worried at all.
Speaker 1 (38:26):
He has gained on approach in eight of his last
nine tournaments that he's played. He is in the positive
in ball striking in all nine of those tournaments.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
If you look, he just putts like ass.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
But if we're well, if we're not worried about that
at this tournament, because again, these are not tricky greens,
and these these are supposed to roll very very true,
so even even bad putters, that should even the playing
field a good amount. So we kind of take that out,
then Grayson Sigg really really does pop and so I'm
(38:59):
gonna lead on that heavy approach game is ball striking,
all the stuff that he does well, and hope that
the bad putting just kind of plays his way out
of the game in all of that. And then my
final guy, Max Grayerson, and and listen.
Speaker 3 (39:16):
This is another look.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
This is another Sammy Vallamachi type thing going on.
Speaker 3 (39:21):
With me here. But it was a dude that just
showed up in the models. He can't.
Speaker 1 (39:25):
He's coming off the corn ferry, so you're gonna get
some corn fairy stuff mixed in in the stats as well.
So if you're at a site that doesn't factor in
other other uh you know, other tours, and you're probably
he probably is not showing up for you at all.
But it's the same type of deal, right he made it.
He got his PGA Tour card. He's played five tournaments
on the PGA Tour. He has gained on approaching all
(39:45):
five of those. He has lost in four.
Speaker 3 (39:48):
Of the five. Putting again, he also putts like ass.
Speaker 1 (39:52):
But like we're we're, we're, We're kind of throwing that
to the side a little bit this week and focusing
on these dudes that have really have good iron plate
and maybe the bad putting will even out because it
is not a tournament in which the best putters always
seem to thrive. And so with that again, Max Grayerson,
you can get him top forty at two and a
(40:14):
half to one. You can get a top twenty at
nearly nine to one if you want to play a
super bomb outright on him. Do not put very much
money on this, but you can get like four hundred
to one, three hundred to one on Max gray or
somebody again, a guy that has just shown really well
with the iron play, and I will go ahead, and
I will go ahead and just take a shot on
(40:35):
him here in this one. Two other guys I'm considering
not on the card quite yet, but I do at
least want to mention them here on the pod in
case they do end up making it, because I don't
want this to be like you go and you add
these things that you don't These guys you don't even
talk about.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Nick Taylor showed up very like a ton all over
the place. For me.
Speaker 1 (40:53):
I don't know, I looked in your y'all's models, but
Nick Taylor inside the top fifteen in every version of
this that I ran.
Speaker 3 (41:01):
And so nicky about that ran for me.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
Yeah, so Nick Taylor at least is gonna be a
consideration for me. I don't know exactly how I'm gonna
attack it quite yet. Maybe I'll just be a head
to head type stuff like go and attack stuff with
him with with head to heads. But I thought that
that was fairly interesting. And another guy that was just
again like I don't know why, it's just so so
(41:23):
weird to me, but uh, Andrew Novak showed up a
ton for me, like very very high. And so Andrew
Novak is another guy that it's either Nick Taylor or
Andrew Novak or I don't know, hell, maybe I end
up adding both of them considering I have these like
super long bombs, which like I'm not putting very much
money on for them to win. So those are two
(41:46):
guys that showed very very well in the models for
me this week. And so Nick Taylor Andrew Novak also
in consideration.
Speaker 4 (41:53):
Yeah, he was a Novak definitely pot for me. The
one that I noticed, Nick Taylor, I pretty quickly moved
on from him though, the one that the one that
my models tell me I should be betting that I
just cannot bring myself to bet at all. Is Joel
David His I don't know. I'm guessing his just stellar
(42:13):
performance last week with the Irons has skewed his stats
so much that he has brought him into that kind
of top fifteen, top ten range in almost everything I ran.
So he's the guy I guess that if he wins,
I'm gonna feel like a moron because I should be
betting him, but I am. I am very much skipping him,
but not as right now. Don't have a problem with.
Speaker 1 (42:33):
That, Wes is who were the first couple of guys
off your card this week?
Speaker 5 (42:37):
Yeah, a couple guys that I was looking at that
I was just, you know, I was like, how much
do I want to be devoted to my model here?
Speaker 2 (42:45):
And how much am I gonna go on instinct? A
little bit.
Speaker 5 (42:48):
I thought about Sam Ryder. I know, he played really
well at the Players. I thought maybe he was gonna
be a little bit too popular and a little bit
too short in the marketplace. A guy that popped for me,
you said, Andrew nov back Andrew Potnam a little bit
for me, mainly with that, you know, how well he
drives the ball and he's a fairway finder, so I
had a little bit of bias toward that. This week,
(43:09):
Grayson Sigg also was in a couple of categories for me,
and then Christian Bezeidenhout and Lucas Glover I believe, were
two of my last leave offs this week.
Speaker 4 (43:18):
Yeah, Glover was up there for me too.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Glover was up there for me too. But I'm I
don't know that. That's just an eye test thing for me.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Like me too, That's what it was like.
Speaker 4 (43:29):
Damon has not passed the eye test to me.
Speaker 3 (43:31):
Sorry, it was one tournament.
Speaker 4 (43:32):
I saw a couple of highlights of them, but yeah,
I'm sorry. May Glover say it was the same thing. Yeah,
I like I just couldn't. I couldn't get there, Like,
I don't. I don't know why for me, I mean,
if you, I guess for me.
Speaker 1 (43:45):
With the whole Lucas Glover thing is we were like, oh,
you know, like, oh he found you know, he found
the putter and whatever and all this stuff like that.
So those tournaments that he won, he gained four point
eight and three strokes putting. Let's go to the tournament
since he lost one point eight, he lost one point six.
(44:06):
He lost to half a stroke. He lost six point one,
he lost one point four, he lost three point nine,
he lost a tenth of a stroke, he lost three
point one and then a half a stroke at the players.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
Like he's backed up putting like Lucas Glover. He putted
good for two weeks. That's it. Like losing six strokes is.
Speaker 4 (44:24):
Just impressive like that, that is just impressive.
Speaker 3 (44:27):
Yes, Like he's back to putting like Lucas Glover.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
There's just I can't go there, you know, And so
I'm not letting the model tell me anything differently, not happening. Sorry, sorry,
not not going there this week with with Lucas Glover.
All right, let's let's talk a couple of other guys
that we didn't get to here. Wes, what did you
What do we not like about Sam Burns? What do
we not like about Jordan Spieth? Why are we not
playing Brian Harmon again?
Speaker 5 (44:52):
This? Right? The price on Sam Burns. Look, he's won
here twice obviously, and you know, not quite Bermuda burn
Burns here because it is Poe trip. But he can
certainly put well here and he's proven he could do that.
But I just thought a little bit short for a guy.
Then you know, we know Sam Burns and I know
you like to bet your boy from Baton Rouge a lot, Matt,
(45:12):
but you know very well he could be a little
erratic off the tee and and that concerns me. Like
when he's informed and he's driving the ball, well, absolutely,
but you know, a little a little bit off kilter.
Jordan Spief I think certainly certainly made sense, but he
just man, he's he's a whirlwind. When you look at
these scorecards, it's like you're gonna see him make a
(45:35):
double bogey bogey and then go three birdies.
Speaker 2 (45:38):
In a row. He just doesn't make a lot of pars.
Speaker 5 (45:40):
And sometimes that's good enough, especially in an event like
this where you know you're gonna you're gonna have to
make like, okay, I make fifteen pars and you know,
three birdies. That's a hell of a round here, and
and he just doesn't put many of those rounds together.
Speaker 1 (45:54):
I don't think, Kelly, what about any of those guys
you know, sung Jay right, I mean, Keegan, what why
are we Why are we not playing these guys?
Speaker 4 (46:06):
I mean, neither of those guys, Neither of those guys
is really have really popped for me model wise in
a while. I mean, sun Jay has been not great
this year, so I mean what the past couple of weeks,
I guess a little bit better. But shoot, I'm loaded
up on a female matchup over him. I gotta see
that first from him. I would say, Brian Harmon, I
(46:29):
did have some interest in this week. I I did
dig into him a fair amount, ended up passing on,
but I do do kind of like him this week's
speeth I had no interest in. You know, Cameron Young,
I feel like me and you have been kind of
been going back and forth on him West like this
is one of those, you know, one of those events
where I think some of my you know, some some
(46:51):
models I was running was he was popping in and
it looks like a good bed, and others, you know,
not so much. So yeah, I did just some of
those times it was easy to pass on and pass on.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
All right, guys, again, every single one of our plays
you can find over at vson dot com. We will
put them in, plug them into the computer again. Not
only us, but everybody else is betting golf over at
vson dot com this year podcast absolutely free. So we
haven't done so already. Please go ahead hit that subscribe
button if you want to rate and review. We appreciate
that as well, and if you want to follow us
(47:22):
on Twitter machine If you have any questions, we're always
here to answer those for you too. For Wes, for Kelly,
I'm Matt. Good luck on all your valsbar bets
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