April 10, 2024 • 16 mins
On this special edition of Long Shots, Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds discuss numerous topics they couldn't get to in the other preview episode due to time constraints. How do you handicap the LIV players, specifically former Masters champs Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka? What about Viktor Hovland? Also, big names like Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and Patrick Cantlay come into The Masters with long odds.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Boys.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
It's bonus coverage time here, no video, so you can
just like you know, kick back, relax.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
I'm not worry about this and listen.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
If you found this, even if you listen to us
over on Vson, good on you, Thanks for listening, Thanks
for coming back, and you're going to get some additional
commentary here on some of these golfers we didn't have
time to get to under the time constraints of a
television program that we weren't able to get to. One
of those guys is brooks Kepka, right, and so brooks Kepka,
we know the story. This guy goes out and all
(00:38):
he does is play well in majors. But Wes, I'm
a data guy, right, and so I don't like doing
the whole gut feeling if I don't have to. Of course,
when we bet some of these other tournaments where we
don't have tons of stats, we do have to go
off of gut, but we're starting to get some of
these libstats. Now, we're starting to get some of these things,
and you look in and how how much do we
(01:00):
buy into the narrative of Brooks doesn't care about anything
other than majors, And how much do we buy into
the fact that if we do actually look at the
raw numbers, he's not coming in in the best form. Here,
It's like the odds now where Kelly, you had this
ridiculous number on Brooks.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Kept go last week. Now it seems like the pendulum
has swung almost.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Too far to where it's eighteen to one and a
guy that's coming in again, and just like, okay, certainly
not good for him.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Well a obviously the live players as a whole played
a lot better last year Brooks obviously Patrick Reid who
finished top five, Phil Mickelson shot sixty five on a
Sunday and finished t two, for God's sake. So you're
not getting the bargains that you were getting there because
now at least you have more tournaments with live and
then with Brooks too. Most specifically, you're already getting the
(01:51):
Brooks in Majors discount. The price has already been discounted,
Like in terms of his true odds, what should he
be maybe like thirty to one or something like that.
And now you're at twenty because we saw what he
did at the PGA at o'kill.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But if you look so far this year, he was T.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Five at Mayacoba, top twelve in Vegas, and at Jetta
twenty eighth in Hong Kong, and then T. Forty five
last week in Durau, So that Durraw finished probably is
an outlier, you know. So I'm not looking too much
into that. But it's not like he's been right there
every single week on Live, like you know Neiman has,
or like John Rahm has or some of these other cats.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yeah, Kelly, you look at this guy that has five
major wins right and is going for six. Puts him
in rarefied air if he gets to six major wins.
But again, he doesn't play well in other tournaments. So like,
do we put stock in what we've seen with him
as being like, oh okay, he just he'll magically show
(02:51):
up at Augusta because that's just what happens. Or do
we buy another You and I are we're stats guys,
were numbers got It doesn't say that he should be
eighteen to one.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
I mean, okay.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
So here's the thing though, even when he was on
the PGA Tour. I think we could have said that,
right like, there were a time at least.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
He was playing more.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
At least he was playing more. Which, yes, I think
that that is.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
That's a bigger thing to me, right is in which
also that really spreads across almost all these lift guys right.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
Where I think it's I mean, Wes, you brought.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
Up a you know, the thirty to one or whatever,
I just to meet my media diaction to that is,
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
How to I don't know how I would feel.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
That properly pricing almost all of these lift guys now
that we're this far removed from so many of them
playing on the PGA Tour, us not getting to see
them play on a weekend a week out basis, not
playing four rounds of golf, I ain't to be really
really hard to price almost any of these guys accurately.
Speaker 4 (03:44):
So I will say I'm pretty much ignoring.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
I don't think you can ignore what Jakee Neeman has
done so far on the tour, especially when he.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Left the PGA Tour. He was one of the one
of the hottest up and comers on the PGA Tour.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Were talking about we.
Speaker 5 (04:01):
Just betting him a bunch, so I understand there's interest there.
I have left room on my outright card for the
possibility of jumping in live on three guys if they
falter off the top, maybe Randy conditions that is, Scotty Scheffler,
and then two live guys, John Ram and Brooks Kopka.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
John Rahm.
Speaker 5 (04:18):
I think he's still close enough from PGA tour play
that he's a guy that I could be very interested in.
And Brooks, I do think this is this We talk
about the value live betting all the time, but this
is the opportunity to get if you're like me and
you don't have a great feel for some of these
live guys.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Right now, watch them and at Brooks's current price, even
if he's.
Speaker 5 (04:39):
The one guy as compared to Rom and Scheffler, then
I'm actually willing to watch play a round or two.
And maybe I'm jumping in at worse odds than what
he's at right now eighteen to one, twenty to one,
because if I see him through two rounds up there near,
you know, up there with the rest of the guys,
you know, hanging that top thirty range on the leader board, Yeah,
he's a guy that I might be interested in jumping
in online.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
All the rest of the Live guys for me not
even really a sign.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Yeah, we's the only guy that I first the very
first thing I did was just right off and I'm
curious as see your your thought. Look, Cam Smith was
the first dude that of all these guys that when
they signed with Live, like the older dudes, I knew, Hey,
you're going to get a paycheck. I get it, like
you know whatever, you weren't going to be able to
compete anyway. Rom It's a paycheck, sure, but he's certainly
(05:23):
still one of the best in the world. We could
say the same thing about Cap Guard, Neieman or even
Bryson who's employment well, but Cam Smith was always that
guy you hear, and we're just going off of stuff
that we hear. We're not on the PGA tour, we're
not insiders or anything. But the dude that like played
golf because it provided money, but not necessarily because he
liked it or loved it really and like you heard
that what he really loved was getting on his boat
(05:44):
and going fishing and all. Like it wasn't golf, it
wasn't he wasn't a golf nerd. He wasn't this dude.
It was almost like he did it just because he
was good at it. Yeah, And so now that he
doesn't have to be incredibly good at it, I think
there probably is some of that that creeps into a
guy like that. And so for me fifty to one,
I mean, I know it's a huge number for a
dude that three years ago would have.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Been eighteen to one, you know or whatever. But I
just can't get there with him.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Yeah, I had him when he was runner up to DJ.
He was about one hundred and twenty five to one
where he was the first guy to ever shoot four
rounds in the sixties that the master still lost my five.
That was the November twenty twenty Masters during COVID. But yeah, Smith,
he did withdrawal from Durrow last week because he had
the food poisoning. So yeah, he's drifted out. And this
(06:28):
is a guy, by the way, and the reason why
he's been successful here is because he's.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Always all over the place off the tee.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
But he's so damn good I think with that short
game and those pitch shots and we saw it. That's
why he won the Open Championship at Saint Andrews a
couple of years ago. But yeah, Smith didn't really interest
me this week either. There's a you know, a couple
other live guys that like what Kelly, what you were
saying about all weight on, like Kep gar somebody. Maybe
(06:56):
that's me with Dustin Johnson because I still feel like
this guy has greatness.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Left in and you know, before sure, I understand.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
That, but man, you know, and and just some weeks
it's hit or miss because I think he's pretty happy
with his life. He's happy with his wife and his children.
He should be yes, yes, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, just watch if you don't want to gratche him
of that.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
But but you know, I would think he's going to
be motivated here. That doesn't mean he's going to necessarily
play well, but look, he's a guy that's just kind
of always there and you've always got to look at
him as a factor because he's not an old guy
by any stretch, even though he's in his late thirties.
I still think he's got good in him. But yeah,
I didn't know what to do with him. I'm very
neutral on Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Two other guys, two of their big name guys, and
then we'll let you guys out of here again. Thanks
for listening to the bonus coverage here of long shots
Victor Houghlin. A guy that goes and wins the championship
last year at the Tour Championship last year. But since
winning that Tour championship, guys, twenty twenty four been pretty rough.
He's like he's making cuts but never contending, and you
(08:03):
start to look and it's like T twenty two, T
fifty eight, T nineteen, T thirty six, T sixty two,
and one of the stuff that we all one of
the things we always used to point out on this
podcast when we were talking about Victor Hobbin. We were like, yeah, man,
but guy, he's so bad around the greens. Guy, he's
just so terrible around the greens. And then something happened
(08:25):
last year and he remedied it a little bit. Well,
now you open up the stats from twenty twenty four
and you look, he's he's back to losing around the
green like horribly, including six point eight strokes around the
green at the Players just a month ago, you know,
in mid March. And so I just don't think the
(08:47):
odds are indicative of where his game is right now,
and so I just can't get there good the guy
that's just struggling so so bad in multiple facets. It'd
be different if it's just one thing, but his approach
game isn't all that sharp either.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So change.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
So I just can't get there.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
And I know there's gonna be a lot of people
go like, hey, there's got to be value on a
guy that maybe there is and and he is certainly
one of the best players in the world and maybe
can turn it around in a couple of weeks off
because he hadn't played in a couple weeks either. That's
the other thing, Like he he's decided to do nothing
but practice. He didn't want to go getting these warm
up rowns in Kelly. I don't know if he if
you considered him at all or whatever. It's just it's
as well as deals were. If we're going on form alone.
(09:25):
Form is not there.
Speaker 5 (09:26):
Yeah, yeah, I just I just listed him with five
with four other guys that I would not be shocked
if they won.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
I would not be stunned.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
Yes, if any of these five guys won that won
the Masters, yet I will not be betting on any
of them because of what everything you just said, And
a lot of these guys fall in the same category.
Victor Oblin, Patrick can't lay, Justin Thomas calling Warrikwa Max Owe.
Except for the bet I put on put in on
Justin Thomas like two months ago.
Speaker 4 (09:51):
Put as of this week, there's there's no like in
wes ay.
Speaker 5 (09:56):
I know you you bet can't lay right right, or
you're looking to bet can't lay because considering because of
the price, because he's almost fifty to one.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, And if you.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
Want to say, Max Holmer forty five to one, Colmore
Cali forty to one. I get those are long numbers.
And if that's your reasoning, I understand it. But man,
as far as what you've seen from these guys consistently
over the past couple months, they just kind of take it.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
They take them out of the running.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
For me, Yeah, and just looking at that can't lay.
You know, sometimes when the guys drift, there's a reason
why they drift. Like you pointed out, Matt about Victor Hoblin,
there's a lot of reasons why he's drifted up. Max Homer,
who you mentioned, Kelly, by the way, is paired with
Tiger Woods. I think Jason Day is the third member
of that pairing. I think those guys like it always
used to be the guys you wanted to bet against
(10:40):
when they were paired with Tiger because of the fear factor.
Now I wonder it's like, man, seeing him struggle, does
that effect you mentally, right? And maybe that could for
a Max Homer certainly, you know it has in the
past for Justin Thomas and Jordan speak when it's like
you're seeing like the hero of this generation, this golfing generation,
and he's out there just struggling, you know, like that
old that you know is a little past this prime.
(11:02):
So yeah, i'd be skirting Max Homa to one thing
I do want to mention here, just to deviate Femis
a little bit, because we did have some injury news
disregarding Min Wu Lee, who we all regarded a very
talented player that certainly has the game I think to
eventually win major championships, broke his right index finger on Saturday,
(11:23):
dropping a twenty pound dumbbell on it. All right, broke
his right index finger. He said he has been able
to play nine holes on a Tuesday without pain, but
Minwu Lee dealing with an injury issue, So maybe to
keep in mind for placements or matchups.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Good A guess he wasn't in the cart anyway, but
like broken finger sounds like yeah, I'm out.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
Yeah, it sounds like he's out. I'm just trying to
figure out how you drop a twenty pounds on your finger.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
You know, who knows who? I don't know, who knows
I don't know either? Was what was going on there
with that?
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I mean, I did see an interview yesterday with ok
Shape Patilla, who we know injured shoulder, celebrating putt that
he made, but said that said.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
That he should be fine and everything's gonna be okay.
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I thought that was an interesting conversation.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Wes and I were on with Gill earlier on the
Beating the Book pod and we were talking about that
with seeing Jade, seeing Najad, who same thing has like
shoulders that pop in and out.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
So he was actually talking about he really apparently this.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
Is a thing for Batya as well, so he's really
not concerned about it. I was saying, he was a
guy that you know, I had circled last week you
obviously hit a winner on it, kind of circled for
this week but crossed him off after that after that happened,
just because I'm worried about that getting that flaring up.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
But I will say seeing.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
A Jade who we all respect was like, I'm not
really worried about it, So I thought that was interesting.
Wanted to bring up one one thing with you guys.
The we hit on this heavy a couple of weeks ago.
Are you considering and I'm guessing because none of us
really bet this way or none of us said we
bet this way Winner without Scottie Scheffler Markets or Winner
without I think I saw Chefler ram McElroy at places.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
Is that something that you'd be recommending this week or not?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Really?
Speaker 1 (13:03):
If somebody told me they were gonna do it, I
wouldn't talk them off a ledge. I mean, like, it's again,
it's it's a eighty nine person field.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
It's really like sixty people.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
So in those inside that sixty is those three guys
who have a very high win equity between the three
of them. And so if you wanted to go that direction,
I don't. I mean, look, I don't think it's the
craziest thing.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
And I think it depends on who you're the price
to target with, Like like if you're wanting bet Rory
McElroy just just pat market because the price is so short,
and same with Rom and those guys.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Yeah, I didn't specifically do anything that week, but I
think it's something that we uh we.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Dug into that a couple of weeks ago and wouldn't.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
Be shocked at off that that's a thing we're thinking
about more on Sun.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Well comparatively, like, if you want to take a longer shot, guy,
compare the top five price to the Winner without market,
and then maybe, you know, maybe you end up on
a much much better number in the Winner without market,
or or vice versa or whatever.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
And this is also like the biggest if you're ever
considering this market, these markets, right, this is the biggest
reason why you have to have as many sports books
available basically to you as possible, because just shop around.
Like you guys are saying, there are I mean, there
are times where I've seen Winner without Mark you looking
at Guy's twenty five to one, he'd be twenty five
to one at one sportsbook, just as an outright twenty
five to one in another with the Winner without and
(14:21):
then it's kind of a no brainer at that.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
One thing to mention to placement markets as well. You're
talking about, you know, betting. I think what is Scotti
Scheffler like to finish top ten? Like two to minus
two dollars is basically the consensus, by the way, and
we mentioned this oftentimes on lawn shots. You know, when
you're betting these placement markets, the best place is obviously
the bet or the whift ties where you get paid
(14:44):
out on dead heats. I know bet MGM does that
a couple others. DraftKings is doing that this week where
they are paying out ties, I believe just for the
tens and the twenties and the top fives. I don't
know if they're going with the thirties and forties, but
we asked Matt Humans and I on our regular program
VSA tonight asked Jonavello and said that they're going to
try to do that a little bit more. Now didn't
(15:05):
commit to saying that's going to be every week, but
you know, certainly that makes a big difference if you're
getting dead heat payouts with this and not having to
be chopped you know, five ways on a top twenty
where you're making like pennies on the dollars. So take
advantage of that, and you know, you may be getting
a little bit less on the price, but.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
It's worth I'd rather pay.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
I'd rather pay the discount and be able to get
paid out the full placement.
Speaker 5 (15:28):
Yeah, I think that's one You've always got to kind
of shop around, make your own decision how much more
you're willing to pay for that. But it's ninety eight
percent of the ones that I'm making are ties paying
full absolutely for Y. So for the casual golf better
out there, just take that headache out of the equation guys.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
As we mentioned, you can catch Wes and Kelly after
the cut, so be sure and tune in for that.
Some more additional commentary coming down your podcast feed tomorrow
as well. Be sure if you are out there in
one of these DraftKings legal markets, it's masters.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
They're gonna give you bonuses, they're gonna give you boosts.
You're gonna give you some of these futures. Like, use
the boosts in these futures.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Take if you like ROM, take ROM from eleven to
fifteen or fourteen or whatever it is. And I like,
be sure you take advantage and use all of these
because one we're jous, we don't get them, So, yeah,
we don't get them in the first place, but this
is the time to do it. On these outrights, be
sure and make sure you're getting as big a payout
as you can should your ticket get home. Appreciate you
joining us here on the bonus coverage of long shots.
(16:29):
If you haven't done so already, go in hit that
subscribe button. Do appreciate that. For Wes, for Kelly, I'm Matt.
Good luck on all your master's bets.
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. Boys.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
It's bonus coverage time here, no video, so you can
just like you know, kick back, relax.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
I'm not worry about this and listen.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
If you found this, even if you listen to us
over on Vson, good on you, Thanks for listening, Thanks
for coming back, and you're going to get some additional
commentary here on some of these golfers we didn't have
time to get to under the time constraints of a
television program that we weren't able to get to. One
of those guys is brooks Kepka, right, and so brooks Kepka,
we know the story. This guy goes out and all
(00:38):
he does is play well in majors. But Wes, I'm
a data guy, right, and so I don't like doing
the whole gut feeling if I don't have to. Of course,
when we bet some of these other tournaments where we
don't have tons of stats, we do have to go
off of gut, but we're starting to get some of
these libstats. Now, we're starting to get some of these things,
and you look in and how how much do we
(01:00):
buy into the narrative of Brooks doesn't care about anything
other than majors, And how much do we buy into
the fact that if we do actually look at the
raw numbers, he's not coming in in the best form. Here,
It's like the odds now where Kelly, you had this
ridiculous number on Brooks.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Kept go last week. Now it seems like the pendulum
has swung almost.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Too far to where it's eighteen to one and a
guy that's coming in again, and just like, okay, certainly
not good for him.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Well a obviously the live players as a whole played
a lot better last year Brooks obviously Patrick Reid who
finished top five, Phil Mickelson shot sixty five on a
Sunday and finished t two, for God's sake. So you're
not getting the bargains that you were getting there because
now at least you have more tournaments with live and
then with Brooks too. Most specifically, you're already getting the
(01:51):
Brooks in Majors discount. The price has already been discounted,
Like in terms of his true odds, what should he
be maybe like thirty to one or something like that.
And now you're at twenty because we saw what he
did at the PGA at o'kill.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But if you look so far this year, he was T.
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Five at Mayacoba, top twelve in Vegas, and at Jetta
twenty eighth in Hong Kong, and then T. Forty five
last week in Durau, So that Durraw finished probably is
an outlier, you know. So I'm not looking too much
into that. But it's not like he's been right there
every single week on Live, like you know Neiman has,
or like John Rahm has or some of these other cats.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Yeah, Kelly, you look at this guy that has five
major wins right and is going for six. Puts him
in rarefied air if he gets to six major wins.
But again, he doesn't play well in other tournaments. So like,
do we put stock in what we've seen with him
as being like, oh okay, he just he'll magically show
(02:51):
up at Augusta because that's just what happens. Or do
we buy another You and I are we're stats guys,
were numbers got It doesn't say that he should be
eighteen to one.
Speaker 4 (03:00):
I mean, okay.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
So here's the thing though, even when he was on
the PGA Tour. I think we could have said that,
right like, there were a time at least.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
He was playing more.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
At least he was playing more. Which, yes, I think
that that is.
Speaker 5 (03:11):
That's a bigger thing to me, right is in which
also that really spreads across almost all these lift guys right.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
Where I think it's I mean, Wes, you brought.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
Up a you know, the thirty to one or whatever,
I just to meet my media diaction to that is,
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
How to I don't know how I would feel.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
That properly pricing almost all of these lift guys now
that we're this far removed from so many of them
playing on the PGA Tour, us not getting to see
them play on a weekend a week out basis, not
playing four rounds of golf, I ain't to be really
really hard to price almost any of these guys accurately.
Speaker 4 (03:44):
So I will say I'm pretty much ignoring.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
I don't think you can ignore what Jakee Neeman has
done so far on the tour, especially when he.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Left the PGA Tour. He was one of the one
of the hottest up and comers on the PGA Tour.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Were talking about we.
Speaker 5 (04:01):
Just betting him a bunch, so I understand there's interest there.
I have left room on my outright card for the
possibility of jumping in live on three guys if they
falter off the top, maybe Randy conditions that is, Scotty Scheffler,
and then two live guys, John Ram and Brooks Kopka.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
John Rahm.
Speaker 5 (04:18):
I think he's still close enough from PGA tour play
that he's a guy that I could be very interested in.
And Brooks, I do think this is this We talk
about the value live betting all the time, but this
is the opportunity to get if you're like me and
you don't have a great feel for some of these
live guys.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Right now, watch them and at Brooks's current price, even
if he's.
Speaker 5 (04:39):
The one guy as compared to Rom and Scheffler, then
I'm actually willing to watch play a round or two.
And maybe I'm jumping in at worse odds than what
he's at right now eighteen to one, twenty to one,
because if I see him through two rounds up there near,
you know, up there with the rest of the guys,
you know, hanging that top thirty range on the leader board, Yeah,
he's a guy that I might be interested in jumping
in online.
Speaker 4 (05:00):
All the rest of the Live guys for me not
even really a sign.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Yeah, we's the only guy that I first the very
first thing I did was just right off and I'm
curious as see your your thought. Look, Cam Smith was
the first dude that of all these guys that when
they signed with Live, like the older dudes, I knew, Hey,
you're going to get a paycheck. I get it, like
you know whatever, you weren't going to be able to
compete anyway. Rom It's a paycheck, sure, but he's certainly
(05:23):
still one of the best in the world. We could
say the same thing about Cap Guard, Neieman or even
Bryson who's employment well, but Cam Smith was always that
guy you hear, and we're just going off of stuff
that we hear. We're not on the PGA tour, we're
not insiders or anything. But the dude that like played
golf because it provided money, but not necessarily because he
liked it or loved it really and like you heard
that what he really loved was getting on his boat
(05:44):
and going fishing and all. Like it wasn't golf, it
wasn't he wasn't a golf nerd. He wasn't this dude.
It was almost like he did it just because he
was good at it. Yeah, And so now that he
doesn't have to be incredibly good at it, I think
there probably is some of that that creeps into a
guy like that. And so for me fifty to one,
I mean, I know it's a huge number for a
dude that three years ago would have.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Been eighteen to one, you know or whatever. But I
just can't get there with him.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Yeah, I had him when he was runner up to DJ.
He was about one hundred and twenty five to one
where he was the first guy to ever shoot four
rounds in the sixties that the master still lost my five.
That was the November twenty twenty Masters during COVID. But yeah, Smith,
he did withdrawal from Durrow last week because he had
the food poisoning. So yeah, he's drifted out. And this
(06:28):
is a guy, by the way, and the reason why
he's been successful here is because he's.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Always all over the place off the tee.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
But he's so damn good I think with that short
game and those pitch shots and we saw it. That's
why he won the Open Championship at Saint Andrews a
couple of years ago. But yeah, Smith didn't really interest
me this week either. There's a you know, a couple
other live guys that like what Kelly, what you were
saying about all weight on, like Kep gar somebody. Maybe
(06:56):
that's me with Dustin Johnson because I still feel like
this guy has greatness.
Speaker 4 (07:02):
Left in and you know, before sure, I understand.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
That, but man, you know, and and just some weeks
it's hit or miss because I think he's pretty happy
with his life. He's happy with his wife and his children.
He should be yes, yes, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Yeah, just watch if you don't want to gratche him
of that.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
But but you know, I would think he's going to
be motivated here. That doesn't mean he's going to necessarily
play well, but look, he's a guy that's just kind
of always there and you've always got to look at
him as a factor because he's not an old guy
by any stretch, even though he's in his late thirties.
I still think he's got good in him. But yeah,
I didn't know what to do with him. I'm very
neutral on Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Two other guys, two of their big name guys, and
then we'll let you guys out of here again. Thanks
for listening to the bonus coverage here of long shots
Victor Houghlin. A guy that goes and wins the championship
last year at the Tour Championship last year. But since
winning that Tour championship, guys, twenty twenty four been pretty rough.
He's like he's making cuts but never contending, and you
(08:03):
start to look and it's like T twenty two, T
fifty eight, T nineteen, T thirty six, T sixty two,
and one of the stuff that we all one of
the things we always used to point out on this
podcast when we were talking about Victor Hobbin. We were like, yeah, man,
but guy, he's so bad around the greens. Guy, he's
just so terrible around the greens. And then something happened
(08:25):
last year and he remedied it a little bit. Well,
now you open up the stats from twenty twenty four
and you look, he's he's back to losing around the
green like horribly, including six point eight strokes around the
green at the Players just a month ago, you know,
in mid March. And so I just don't think the
(08:47):
odds are indicative of where his game is right now,
and so I just can't get there good the guy
that's just struggling so so bad in multiple facets. It'd
be different if it's just one thing, but his approach
game isn't all that sharp either.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
So change.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
So I just can't get there.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
And I know there's gonna be a lot of people
go like, hey, there's got to be value on a
guy that maybe there is and and he is certainly
one of the best players in the world and maybe
can turn it around in a couple of weeks off
because he hadn't played in a couple weeks either. That's
the other thing, Like he he's decided to do nothing
but practice. He didn't want to go getting these warm
up rowns in Kelly. I don't know if he if
you considered him at all or whatever. It's just it's
as well as deals were. If we're going on form alone.
(09:25):
Form is not there.
Speaker 5 (09:26):
Yeah, yeah, I just I just listed him with five
with four other guys that I would not be shocked
if they won.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
I would not be stunned.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
Yes, if any of these five guys won that won
the Masters, yet I will not be betting on any
of them because of what everything you just said, And
a lot of these guys fall in the same category.
Victor Oblin, Patrick can't lay, Justin Thomas calling Warrikwa Max Owe.
Except for the bet I put on put in on
Justin Thomas like two months ago.
Speaker 4 (09:51):
Put as of this week, there's there's no like in
wes ay.
Speaker 5 (09:56):
I know you you bet can't lay right right, or
you're looking to bet can't lay because considering because of
the price, because he's almost fifty to one.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, And if you.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
Want to say, Max Holmer forty five to one, Colmore
Cali forty to one. I get those are long numbers.
And if that's your reasoning, I understand it. But man,
as far as what you've seen from these guys consistently
over the past couple months, they just kind of take it.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
They take them out of the running.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
For me, Yeah, and just looking at that can't lay.
You know, sometimes when the guys drift, there's a reason
why they drift. Like you pointed out, Matt about Victor Hoblin,
there's a lot of reasons why he's drifted up. Max Homer,
who you mentioned, Kelly, by the way, is paired with
Tiger Woods. I think Jason Day is the third member
of that pairing. I think those guys like it always
used to be the guys you wanted to bet against
(10:40):
when they were paired with Tiger because of the fear factor.
Now I wonder it's like, man, seeing him struggle, does
that effect you mentally, right? And maybe that could for
a Max Homer certainly, you know it has in the
past for Justin Thomas and Jordan speak when it's like
you're seeing like the hero of this generation, this golfing generation,
and he's out there just struggling, you know, like that
old that you know is a little past this prime.
(11:02):
So yeah, i'd be skirting Max Homa to one thing
I do want to mention here, just to deviate Femis
a little bit, because we did have some injury news
disregarding Min Wu Lee, who we all regarded a very
talented player that certainly has the game I think to
eventually win major championships, broke his right index finger on Saturday,
(11:23):
dropping a twenty pound dumbbell on it. All right, broke
his right index finger. He said he has been able
to play nine holes on a Tuesday without pain, but
Minwu Lee dealing with an injury issue, So maybe to
keep in mind for placements or matchups.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Good A guess he wasn't in the cart anyway, but
like broken finger sounds like yeah, I'm out.
Speaker 4 (11:43):
Yeah, it sounds like he's out. I'm just trying to
figure out how you drop a twenty pounds on your finger.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
You know, who knows who? I don't know, who knows
I don't know either? Was what was going on there
with that?
Speaker 1 (11:53):
I mean, I did see an interview yesterday with ok
Shape Patilla, who we know injured shoulder, celebrating putt that
he made, but said that said.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
That he should be fine and everything's gonna be okay.
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I thought that was an interesting conversation.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
Wes and I were on with Gill earlier on the
Beating the Book pod and we were talking about that
with seeing Jade, seeing Najad, who same thing has like
shoulders that pop in and out.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
So he was actually talking about he really apparently this.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
Is a thing for Batya as well, so he's really
not concerned about it. I was saying, he was a
guy that you know, I had circled last week you
obviously hit a winner on it, kind of circled for
this week but crossed him off after that after that happened,
just because I'm worried about that getting that flaring up.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
But I will say seeing.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
A Jade who we all respect was like, I'm not
really worried about it, So I thought that was interesting.
Wanted to bring up one one thing with you guys.
The we hit on this heavy a couple of weeks ago.
Are you considering and I'm guessing because none of us
really bet this way or none of us said we
bet this way Winner without Scottie Scheffler Markets or Winner
without I think I saw Chefler ram McElroy at places.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
Is that something that you'd be recommending this week or not?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Really?
Speaker 1 (13:03):
If somebody told me they were gonna do it, I
wouldn't talk them off a ledge. I mean, like, it's again,
it's it's a eighty nine person field.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
It's really like sixty people.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
So in those inside that sixty is those three guys
who have a very high win equity between the three
of them. And so if you wanted to go that direction,
I don't. I mean, look, I don't think it's the
craziest thing.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
And I think it depends on who you're the price
to target with, Like like if you're wanting bet Rory
McElroy just just pat market because the price is so short,
and same with Rom and those guys.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
Yeah, I didn't specifically do anything that week, but I
think it's something that we uh we.
Speaker 4 (13:41):
Dug into that a couple of weeks ago and wouldn't.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
Be shocked at off that that's a thing we're thinking
about more on Sun.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Well comparatively, like, if you want to take a longer shot, guy,
compare the top five price to the Winner without market,
and then maybe, you know, maybe you end up on
a much much better number in the Winner without market,
or or vice versa or whatever.
Speaker 5 (14:01):
And this is also like the biggest if you're ever
considering this market, these markets, right, this is the biggest
reason why you have to have as many sports books
available basically to you as possible, because just shop around.
Like you guys are saying, there are I mean, there
are times where I've seen Winner without Mark you looking
at Guy's twenty five to one, he'd be twenty five
to one at one sportsbook, just as an outright twenty
five to one in another with the Winner without and
(14:21):
then it's kind of a no brainer at that.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
One thing to mention to placement markets as well. You're
talking about, you know, betting. I think what is Scotti
Scheffler like to finish top ten? Like two to minus
two dollars is basically the consensus, by the way, and
we mentioned this oftentimes on lawn shots. You know, when
you're betting these placement markets, the best place is obviously
the bet or the whift ties where you get paid
(14:44):
out on dead heats. I know bet MGM does that
a couple others. DraftKings is doing that this week where
they are paying out ties, I believe just for the
tens and the twenties and the top fives. I don't
know if they're going with the thirties and forties, but
we asked Matt Humans and I on our regular program
VSA tonight asked Jonavello and said that they're going to
try to do that a little bit more. Now didn't
(15:05):
commit to saying that's going to be every week, but
you know, certainly that makes a big difference if you're
getting dead heat payouts with this and not having to
be chopped you know, five ways on a top twenty
where you're making like pennies on the dollars. So take
advantage of that, and you know, you may be getting
a little bit less on the price, but.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
It's worth I'd rather pay.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
I'd rather pay the discount and be able to get
paid out the full placement.
Speaker 5 (15:28):
Yeah, I think that's one You've always got to kind
of shop around, make your own decision how much more
you're willing to pay for that. But it's ninety eight
percent of the ones that I'm making are ties paying
full absolutely for Y. So for the casual golf better
out there, just take that headache out of the equation guys.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
As we mentioned, you can catch Wes and Kelly after
the cut, so be sure and tune in for that.
Some more additional commentary coming down your podcast feed tomorrow
as well. Be sure if you are out there in
one of these DraftKings legal markets, it's masters.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
They're gonna give you bonuses, they're gonna give you boosts.
You're gonna give you some of these futures. Like, use
the boosts in these futures.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Take if you like ROM, take ROM from eleven to
fifteen or fourteen or whatever it is. And I like,
be sure you take advantage and use all of these
because one we're jous, we don't get them, So, yeah,
we don't get them in the first place, but this
is the time to do it. On these outrights, be
sure and make sure you're getting as big a payout
as you can should your ticket get home. Appreciate you
joining us here on the bonus coverage of long shots.
(16:29):
If you haven't done so already, go in hit that
subscribe button. Do appreciate that. For Wes, for Kelly, I'm Matt.
Good luck on all your master's bets.
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