April 17, 2024 • 51 mins
Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds give their betting recap of The Masters. What are the big takeaways after another convincing Scottie Scheffler victory? Matt was in attendance at Augusta Golf Club. He recaps what it was like being a spectator. And his thoughts on the food and drink selection. Also, the guys preview the RBC Heritage. Scottie Scheffler is once again a significant favorite. The guys give their course breakdown and stats that matter. And of course, best bets for the RBC Heritage.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to another edition of long Shots, the
RBC Heritage Edition. It is Matt Brown, it is Kelly Bidlin,
it is Wes Reynolds. It is a golf betting podcast
here on the Vson Podcast Network. Appreciate you, guys subscribing,
and if you haven't done so already, go ahead hit
that subscribe button.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Do appreciate that as well. Fellows.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
We will get into what's going to go down over
there at Harbor Town elevated event, limited field, no cut,
but let's go ahead do a quick little recap of
what went on over at Augusta. Pretty much, yeah, pretty much,
pretty much what we said happened.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I got my ass kicked this week. I won two bets.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
I won a will Zala Taurus top ten, I won
a Scottie three ball and that was it, and everything
else was a loser and so not a profitable tournament
for me. But you know, listen, you're not gonna win
every single week, so it kind of is what it is,
and you know it's it. Did I will admit change
my approach at least a little bit for this week
as we enter this thing as to how I'm gonna approach,
(01:15):
And you know, we can actually talk a little bit
of betting strategy when we get to our card a
little bit later too. But uh, more than anything, guys,
I made a statement on Twitter that I got some
backlash from. I kind of want to get Yell's opinion
on this, where I was kind of saying, like, listen,
he's already the best player in the world without a
doubt right now and has said from a pure skills perspective,
(01:37):
he's probably in the goat discussion, and if he continues
on this run, he is going to be firmly in
the goat discussion. And I got, you know, all the
people coming and screaming at me about Tiger and.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
But you know, if you look and Wes, you, you know,
you're a good historian on the statistics and all this
stuff like that.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
He drives it farther than Tiger. His ball striking numbers
are better than Tiger. He's short game numbers are better
than the only thing that he is not as good
as Tiger as the putting stuff and I don't know
if that's not coming around as well.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Now the did he do? Has he done it as
long as Tiger? Of course not, he hasn't done it.
He only turned pro four years ago, so no, he
has not done it as.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Long as Tiger.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
I was saying he is well on the way there
with the numbers that he is putting up, and I
got met with so much resistance. But if you look
the guys the last nine majors, he's getting one hundred
and one strokes on the field over the last nine majors.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
I mean, this is insanity.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
And I guess you know, if you want a fanboy
and stuff, we get in people want to argue the
Jordan versus Lebronz stuff and all like that, and like
nobody wants to take into consideration that maybe the person
of their generation could be getting eclipsed by someone, you know,
coming along the way. I just don't know why we
can't look at what we're seeing right now and give
full appreciation to Scotty and understand that what we're seeing
(02:55):
right now is really some ridiculously historic stuff against a
much deeper field of golfers than Tiger had to deal with.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
Yeah, and look, I think at least people should go halfway,
which is where I'm going here, because of the fact that, yeah,
not yet, with the wrong numbers, where Tiger was winning
eight times a year multiple years and won three majors
in a season. Because we have seen probably over the
last decade, we've seen little spurts from several different players.
(03:25):
We've seen a spurt from Rory. We've seen a spurt
when Jason Day was number one in the world. We've
seen one from Brooks, We've seen one from DJ, We've
seen one from Jordan's Speed, We've seen one from Rom.
This feels like it has a longer staying power than
just a spurt. Now, who knows, maybe you know his
impending arrival here within the next week or week and
(03:45):
a half or so, maybe that changes you a little bit.
I have no idea, but I just know from what
I see with my eyes, you know. And then obviously
looking at the numbers, he's putting up numbers that are
lapping the field right now. So you at least got
to go halfway. Now, I'm not one of these ones
that say, Okay, he should be odds on to win
a major.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Not yet, not yet.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
But look, If he finishes twenty twenty four and he's
won at least two majors and you know six times,
like let's say six overall wins on the tour, six
or seven, then you're probably looking at a guy that's
gonna get into like plus two to one or two
fifty range at least to win this thing. So, yeah,
he's not there yet, but he's closer than any player
(04:27):
has been in the last decade plus.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Yeah, we look at this guy and I just I
you know, we don't have to sit here and say
all the stats. Could we say them every week whenever
we review these tournaments, right, Like, we can tell you
all of the categories that he is number one on
tour and it's basically all of them, you know. And
so it's just a deal where I'm not saying I'm
this is taking nothing away from Tiger. What I think
(04:52):
we should just be able to be able to have
a nice discussion about and at least understand, is Tiger
bred this generation of players like Tiger started this deal
where guys that weigh one hundred and sixty five pounds
can drive it three hundred and twenty yards like Will
salatorus all like Tiger made these guys. Now, are the
fields deeper now than they were when Tiger was going
(05:13):
through this?
Speaker 5 (05:14):
It is?
Speaker 3 (05:14):
It is unequivocally yes.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Like you have to understand that, Like, there are more
guys that teed up every single week on the PGA
Tour now that can go out and win than there
was when Tiger was in his hey day. Again, that
is not a knock against Tiger. He can only play
against the people that were of his generation and that
were in the fields with him. But it still doesn't
change the fact that this is the deepest the PGA
Tour has ever been with season veterans.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
And I say season veterans.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
This guy like guys in their mid thirties now, you know,
like guys in their mid thirties of the season veterans.
Speaker 5 (05:42):
Maybe yeah, a year ago or half ago is the
deepest we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
But yeah, yeah, and like, and now you're getting all
these guys in their early twenties that are legitimate, real
contenders every time they teed up. And I think we
just have to be able to acknowledge that without saying
that it's asinine for for us to consider.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
It's not asinine. I'm gonna go halfway like wes Uh, yeah,
I'm the I'm that guy that's one of that wants
to say, don't ruin my childhood. Michael Jordan and Tiger
Woods were the greatest I've ever seen. But I think
you're yes. I think it's asinine for you not to
be able to to entertain a conversation like this because
(06:19):
because of everything you just said, I think every a
lot of what you just said is the Jordan Lebron
comp coup. Right, It's okay, a lot of what Jordan
was doing people weren't doing in the NBA, and that
helped develop the game and take it to a next level.
And at the same time, he wasn't playing against players
that I feel like Lebron has had to play through
(06:40):
through his entire career. He didn't have to go up through,
you know, athletic freaks like Giannis Ante to Koupo, a
guy like that changed the change the game and shooting
the ball with Stephen Curry like, it's the same type.
It's kind of the same type of argument to me.
It's just it's understanding what what greatness looks like in
different eras of the sport. Whether we're talking the NBA
(07:01):
or whether we're talking golf, I think that applies. Yeah, absolutely,
I think there's a lot of the same arguments that
carry over.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
It's just people think that whenever you're comparing eras that
you're knocking the previous one. And it's not that, it's
it's just understanding the stuff of all sports evolves like
sports have has evolved, to say, and golf has evolved
just like all the other sports. And so for us
to look at what Scotty Scheffler's doing, who is averaging
a ridiculously, ridiculously long amount off the tee, who is
(07:28):
putting the ball twelve feet from the hole, every friggin'
approach that he does that is literally butterhands around the
green and all these things, like you can point a
hole in one aspect of his game and that's the putting.
And he's figured it out good enough to go out
and win a ton of times in the last three years.
And so I just don't you know again, I I'm
I think we have to really do appreciate the greatness
(07:51):
that we're witnessing right now with Scotti Scheffler. As far
as other takeaways from the tournament, guys, I'm being out
there on Friday, I don't you know?
Speaker 5 (08:00):
Yeah you were?
Speaker 3 (08:01):
How was it?
Speaker 5 (08:02):
How was the pimento cheese? The pimento sandwich? Did you
have one?
Speaker 1 (08:05):
If you thought for if you think for a second
that I'm gonna eat a pimento cheese sandwich that sitting
that had been sitting out for like who knows how
many hours and whatever and all that. Like I just
see these guys walking by grabbing these pimento cheese and
egg salad sandwiches sitting out of.
Speaker 5 (08:18):
The salad y.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Yeah, and I'm just kind of like, I'm like, you
guys be braver than I am.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Like IMI back there, Yeah, ain't touching that, Like I
mean I I ain't touching it, Like it's not happening.
Speaker 5 (08:33):
How was the cocktail selection?
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Not great?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Really?
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Yeah? Beer and white don't.
Speaker 5 (08:38):
I don't know why I just thought to ask that,
but like, I mean, golf's kind of elevating the entertainment
factor and the masters know did you say beer and
white wine everywhere else?
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (08:48):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Not at the Master beer and white wine only. That's it.
Speaker 5 (08:51):
Does everybody know this? Am I just finding this out?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
I can tell you this.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I don't think everyone knows this because I sure as
hell didn't know that that when I got there going
to beer.
Speaker 5 (09:00):
Oh my god, breaking breaking news, Steven Jong, grab this
for a clipper. You're kidding me. Beer and white wine
is all these servant the masters.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I was expecting something more.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Off my list, Yes, I Matt, Hey, so I literally
I said to uh. I said to one of the
the ladies at the checkout, and I said, hey, where
can I get like a bootleg cocktail around here? Like
there has to be someone, like, you know, back behind
a bush or something.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
She goes, well, do you know a member?
Speaker 5 (09:28):
And I'm like, oh, I.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Was like, I was like, I do not know a member?
And she goes, well, then there ain't no cocktails out
here now. So it's basically you can go in the
you can go in the clubhouse and you can get
yourself a cocktail if you're a member.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
But like, yeah, that was a beer and white wine.
Speaker 5 (09:45):
My mind is blown right now.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
And let me tell you something fellas Uh. Since it
was a very very long day out there, I was like,
I can't drink beer for twelve nights. Yes, So I
had more white wine in one single day than I've
had in my whole life combined, like like literally my
whole life combined. I had more white wine in a
single day than I had combined and all in her
(10:09):
and it was horrible. Like it got to a point like, listen,
we're all friends here on this. That's fine.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
No one said, you know, just the three of us.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
It got to the point like midway through the afternoon
where I was buying a power aid and I was
like taking a slug of white and then shooting it
with a shot of power like I was like, I
was like I was making my own little mixed drink
because I couldn't get it down anymore.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Like it was, it was so bad, Like it was
so horrible.
Speaker 5 (10:35):
I definitely would I definitely would have had like four
beers and then it would have been like I can't
walk around anymore. Wait, entirely, way too full to move anymore.
I'm gonna have to plant my ass on whatever.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Like let me get let me get one of them
Georgia peach ice teams.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I was literally sitting there shooting wine, chasing wine with
power aids because like that's the only way that I
could get it down.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
At least you powered through. Man, there you go. I'm impressed.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
So the thing I will say that Weather, I know
they talked about it a ton, I know whatever, like
it really was.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
It was.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
It was insane. There were points I had to close
my eyes. I couldn't even see it was blowing stuff
all around so badly.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So I'm not gonna say we got robbed out of
a out of a normal tournament of the Masters, but like, look,
nobody was trying anything at all. I mean, like like nothing,
like it was just survival out there. And I get
it because I mean literally there were multiple times I
had to my head and cover up my eyes because
stuff was just flying around, hit me in the eyes
(11:30):
and kulding whatever. So you know, I'm taking nothing away
from Scotty. I'm just taking more. I'm just talking more
about the guys that really really struggled, and not necessarily
the guys that missed the cut, but the guys that
just you know, finished a little bit lower. I didn't
really have a they didn't really have four rounds to
go at it, you know, and like I do wonder
if it could have changed anything, But all that does
is just really highlight how much better Scotty is than
(11:50):
everybody else, because he was able to he was able
to navigate all of that, and he was playing in
the toughest of it.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Like you know, those.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Guys that were out super early on Thursday probably got
the best of those conditions for like two hours because
there was some softness of the course and then obviously
the wind picked up.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
But and one of those guys, of course was Bryson.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
Yeah, and that's why he was in contention because he
got Yeah, I think he was like the fifth group out,
I want to say, on Thursday. So those guys got
like the best of it, and then it all of
a sudden even doubt.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Yeah. Yeah, I feel like, I mean, look, the Sunday
was awesome, but like I feel like a lot of
people are giving Scotty a whole lot of credit for
what he did on Sunday. Mattica I said a couple
times over the weekend it was kind of him battling
through that Thursday Friday where it was like, you know,
I'm back, you were out there, I'm back, you know,
back home watching it on the couch, watching basically full
(12:42):
coverage from beginning to end, and it was you know,
we've seen this before at US opens it British opens
and what you know, but some of these guys that
are world class players when they just can't, like you said,
like you said, try anything or even just play the
game that they want to play because they're getting so
frustrated by the by the conditions, by the wind, you know,
(13:03):
rain early, I guess, but you know, win for the
most part. And then I mean the greens. I don't
remember seeing a Masters where you know, guys were missing
putts by it was a foot and a half wide,
you know, left or right of the hole.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
It was.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
You could see it on all their faces and in
almost everybody except for every time you saw Scottie Chef.
It was just okay, same looks on his face. He's
gonna go out there, do his thing and continue to
cruise through this first couple of rounds, just hanging around,
just hanging around, hanging around, right at the top of
that leaderboard. And I thought that, I thought that really
(13:39):
made the difference, because I don't I don't think any
of us had any doubts once we were rolling into
Sunday that that was gonna be the guy slipping on
the green jacket. I think, sure, you had some impressive
names at the top I think for a second it
was gonna be Chefer walking away though without that thing.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Yeah, I'm I'm waiting, man.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
It just was one of those deals where you just
look at it and it felt inevitable. Certainly did get
home with all that. Of course, most of those people
are going to be here this week. We'll talk about
them and what they if there was anything that we
thought carried over here As we head to the RBC
Heritage at Harbortown, Wes. What are we going to be
looking at from a course perspective, because it is quite
different this week than last.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Yeah, it is very different.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Of course, you had those very wide fairways there at
Augusta at fifty one yards wide on average.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
These aren't exactly.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Like really super tight narrow ones, but still thirty three
yards wide on average. This is more of a ball
striker course. It is a par seventy one at Harbortown
Golf Links seventy two to thirteen peat Die design, so
coastal links that is a little bit tree lined and
you got some dog legs and some narrow sight lines.
But it is kind of interesting because some of the
(14:46):
courses like play into some of the holes rather play
into like a housing development, and then some are really
by the water, especially seventeen and eighteen. We know seventeen
that par three with the sound, and then the eighteenth
of course has that light that's so recognizable and iconic
for this course. So yeah, this is a course where
you're gonna be taking less than driver.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
So only only two true coastal holes on this course.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Yeah, seventeen and eighteen. There are water hazards, but in
terms of right off the coast, yeah, seventeen and eighteen.
That sound calibogue sound. I'm gonna try to hopefully I
pronounce that right, but you know, just looking up. But
most of the holes do play inland because you know,
it kind of goes through the trees, and then there's
a lot of residential housing developments around there in Hilton Heads.
(15:35):
So yeah, par seventy one, Like I said, three par fives,
eleven par fours, and then four par threes. So yeah,
you're gonna be taking less than driver a lot off
this course. And I'm sure we'll point that out when
we get to our stat modeling in that discussion. You're
not going to be taking driver very often off this
course here at Harbortown.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Yeah, it is super small greens, and I'm sure that
something that we'll talk about a lot as well as
trying to figure out how these guys are going to
be able to navigate that as we get into it.
But Kelly, as we look at the odds board this
week for the RBC, as we mentioned, it's a lot
of the guys from last week as of right now,
(16:19):
unless you guys have heard anything in the last hour.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
So Scotty Scheffler, Sam.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Burns both still in it, both still going to play
in this though they was brought up multiple times that
they would withdraw from the Masters should their significant others
go into labor.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
If that was last week.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
And they were going to do it and it was
the Masters, they will certainly do it this week at
the RBC.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
So take that into consideration.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
If you've bet, want to bet either one of those
guys with Scotti Scheffler four to one on the odds board,
Xander at ten to one, Rory twelve to one, Lude
Big twelve to one, Can't Lay fourteen, Fleetwood eighteen, Marikaala eighteen,
everybody else twenty five or longer you were kind of
perusing the odds boards of there, of course, These odds
are courtesy of Draftking Sportsbook. As you were kind of
looking at the odds board, did anything stand out to
(17:02):
you other than the fact that we finally have it
to where Rory is no longer the second guy on
the odds board.
Speaker 5 (17:07):
Yeah, yeah, that would be one of the big ones.
And then I think some of the guys that you know,
I'm guessing all three of us were a little surprised
to see at the top, you know, near the top
of the leaderboard last week and call Morikawa and Max
Homa right there immediately back to twenty twenty to one,
twenty five to one, eighteen to one respectively for Homa
and Marikala. If just I don't think they would have
(17:29):
been it would have been anything close to those odds
if they didn't put up the Master's results that they did,
still not you know, take out the Master's still not
great form on the season. Patrick can't laid fourteen to one,
but we know he's got really really good history at
this efense, so not not too surprising.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
There.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
And I don't I mean, I want to bring it
back to that Shuffler point real quick. I don't you know,
Sam Burns, I don't really know if any of us,
except for maybe Matter play this week. I can I
can't ever say that about Sam Burns with Matter around.
But the uh, I mean Scheffler, if we don't, it's
we're recording at five pm Pacific time on Tuesday. At
this point, he's got to be teeing it up, right.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
You would certainly think so, you would think.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
But I mean, you know, this is kind of weird
to me.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
But I mean he flies private, I mean literally got
on the jet and flew back to Dallas. He was
out at a bar like so, I mean, it's kind
of like, I don't know. I mean, he could he
could be taking the night to see what's happening.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I mean, for all we know, you know, I don't know.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
I mean, I will say I made a couple bets.
I made a couple bets as soon as market market open.
I mean, this is just basically carrying over my bad
master's betting. Was taking a couple bets thinking Scottie Scheffer
was not was going to withdraw. But it hasn't happened yet,
And I'll recreding a little bit the numbers of the
guys that I selected at the time. So, uh, just
just just a little preview of what's to come. But
(18:53):
I yeah, I think at this point I'm kind of
expected him to go uh but yeah, I'm I'm surprised.
I don't know if this is a bit of a
bit of a poker field or something right now, Matt
where he's like, he's like, man, I'm just I'm rolling, like, well,
I've got the best of it. I'm gonna keep playing
and racking up big checks. Maybe that's what he's feeling
because he knows he's gonna be taking some time off
(19:13):
here soon.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
That's kind of my guess. My guess would be my bank,
I got this an elevated event. I might have two
weeks left and now I'm gonna be off for a while,
so I.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Match play next week. He's probably taking off.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
Yeah, So it's kind of like I think it's he's
looking at this it's one more chance at a big check,
go hit it, and then you know, take a few
weeks off, is my guess. You know, in all this West,
as we look at the odds board, we do see
some of these guys that just haven't really quite put
it all together start to drift right Fee now down
at forty five to one and a sixty nine player field.
(19:47):
Tom Kem at forty five to one and a sixty
nine player field, You go down. Brian Harmon, not even
a year removed from a major fifty to one in
a sixty nine player field. Justin Thomas, who he thought
was made be kind of rounding into form, met Putter
is just complete, Yeah, completely gone. And I know that
can be streaky, but man, he just looks lost on
the greens. Has slipped all the way to thirty five
(20:09):
to one. So we started to see some of these
guys where they're their recent play is now catching up
to them on the odds board.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
Yeah, and I'll go with one shorter than that in
terms of like probably a permanent realignment. You know, we
keep trying to time when Ludvig Obert is gonna get
his first like really huge win. Of course, he's won
once on the dp RUL Tour and when won the
RSM in the season finale last year. But you know,
because we were kind of like, Okay, this is first
time playing these courses, maybe he's gonna drift a little bit.
(20:40):
No chance after what we saw last weekend, No chance
he is gonna be in the mid teens. And if
you're gonna hit him at his first pig event, that's
the price you're gonna get. You're not gonna get some
high twenties or thirty ish to one on lou vig Obart.
I just he's too damn good. And look, I know
he hit it in the water, you know, at Amen
Corner on Sunday, But look he was going for it.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Yeah, and he was going for the win, and I
and I respected that.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
Now, Max Homa, who I think we all like, I
wish Max would have you know, maybe don't take the
three would when you're trying to chase down Darth Vader
and you're.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Three back on a par five.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
You know, maybe you got to get the big dog
out and try to hit that scary t shot. But yeah, Ludwig,
you know you're you're just not gonna get any breaks
on this guy from a price. I mean, he'd already
been priced like a several times tour winner, and he's
gonna continue.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
A very good point. And you actually you look at
his stats and through the very very short term of
his career, Kelly, all of his stats are better than
everyone like. He has driven it better than anyone that
has been on tour for as little as he is,
he has struck it better than everybody. He actually is
even putting better, Like you look at the historical putting
(21:48):
stuff for these guys that have been on tour as
little as he has, and he's doing that better than
everybody else too. We kind of said this from the
beginning of the season. We're like, he's gonna win. It's
just win, like you know, but Wes, that's a very
great point, Like, I mean, this is just it, Like,
especially in these especially in these short field events, like
you know, we getting No. Twenty twenty one, twenty two,
(22:09):
it's not happening. So you either have to be okay
with paying the short price or just understanding you might
miss out on the win and you know, maybe figure
out other ways to get exposure to him, right, I
mean that's the other thing that we I think are
going to have to do us as better as us
as a podcast, maybe the whole industry, as as betters
and things. Uh, maybe the best thing's ever gonna happen
to us is Scotty having a baby, because like you'll
(22:31):
have to take a few weeks off, right, I actually
bet like you know to our tournament normally, but you know,
it's just trying to figure out alternative ways to go
about these things, you know, until he he kind of
cools off with all of that. But uh yeah, that's
just kind of the price we're going to get with
with him, Kelly moving forward.
Speaker 5 (22:47):
Yeah, like you said, I mean he's putting it all together.
I think there is I think one of the biggest
compliments you can get. Obviously, he did well last week,
so I will affect some of the stats. But it's know,
you know, we run all these stat models and everything,
and it's okay, dude was top five on everything last
week in a very different course. He's top five again
for me on every model I run. He's a top
five up there, so on a very very different course
(23:08):
that requires a very different skill set. So I think
when you start to see that, I mean, Scheffler's been
locked number one on those for every single tournament we've run.
But you know, Ludwig's Ludwig's top five now on every
single one of those you run. And that is a massive, massive,
you know, massive achievement by him. And yeah, great point
(23:29):
by West if you're looking for looking to be the
guy who gets in, you know, on a big win
or a big scorer on ludvig. I these about as
best you're gonna get these days.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Not happening unfortunately, so maybe we can figure out ways
to make money on him moving forward. Guys, just a
reminder if you didn't, if you are new to this podcast,
or if you're wondering, hey, what the hell is going on?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Where is my around the world.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Remember we have split that off into a separate podcast now,
so even more reason to go in and subscribe to
long s because that will just automatically show up in
your feed as well, So be sure and go ahead
and hit that subscribe button in your podcast a choice.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
And also, if you want to become a vsent Pro
subscriber on.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
An annual basis, we're gonna save you forty one dollars
off of the year long subscription rate if you use
the promo code golf, so it's pretty easy to remember
g LFNA. Again, you're gonna pay one ninety nine instead
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just golf content, every single bit of the other content
(24:31):
out there, and that's where it really pays off some
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of all of that. Again, Promo code Golf. When we
come back, we will take a look at what we
put into our models when it spit out, and what
made our betting cards here on Long Shots. Welcome back
(24:52):
Long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the Visa Podcast Network.
Matt West and Kelly coming to you for the RBC
Heritage over at Harbor Town just right down the road
there from Augusta over in South Carolina. Kelly, let's go
ahead talk about some stats that you found important this week.
Wes Be feel free to chime in as Kelly is talking.
(25:13):
If there's anything that you that you maybe win a
different direction on him with and or if there's anything
that you you corroborate with. As we tried to get
some models here that didn't spit out Scotty Scheffler and
that said, hey, if you don't bet Scotty Scheffler, you're
a moron, which is basically what the models told us,
like every week that we run.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
This yes, no, for like the for the ninety six
consecutive week, my models continue to tell me that yes, yeah, yes,
spoiler but yeah, I mean like we Wes broke down
the course. Well, I think you're looking for guys that
are accurate off the tee. I do think that. What
one note that jumped out to me second year of
an elevated event, they did you know, they grew out
(25:51):
that rough last year to to like two and a
half two and a half inches, that's basically been cut
in half. So I do think that's gonna be interesting
to monitor. You've got a lot of these, a lot
of the different tree types, right with branches that overhang
here and stuff, so that might kind of get in
the way like the rough wood. So I don't know
how much to factor that into our thinking so far. Uh,
(26:13):
but you know, notable the rough is you know, half
as high as it was last year, and you're looking
for you're looking for accurate drivers off the tea box here,
you need to keep it in the fairway. Maybe though
if they you know, if that with that rough being
a little short shortened, that doesn't affect things as much
this year. But we'll have to see so good drives,
you know, driving accuracy definitely something I looked at pretty
(26:34):
heavily this week. And then stroke, you know, surf gained approach,
always small greens, looking at opportunities, game guys that really
put it close uh to the pin. I believe about
half it's about half the approach shots coming from one
hundred and fifty two hundred yards here historically, so uh
punch that in as kind of my only proximity bucket.
I really looked at it into in between that range.
(26:55):
You know, you got a tough, tough test to you know,
holes all around here, but still three par five on
a part seventy one plugged those in. Think you're gonna
have to score on those. And then it's you know
that definitely one of the courses because of the small greens,
I think you need to factor in around the green, play, scrambling,
three put avoidance, that stuff more than what I'd usually
look at. So all of that, that's pretty much everything
(27:16):
I punched in for the week.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Yeah, Wes as we I'm no weather man too. The
stuff that we talked about a lot, you know, but
it is a course that can get windy, but as
of now, it doesn't look like it's going to be.
I think the only thing that's a little bit of
note is Sunday it kind of drops off in temperature,
which is weird, like it's.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
In the eighties.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
It's kind of like in high seventies, low eighties for
the first three days and it looks like a high of.
Speaker 3 (27:40):
Like seventy on on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
Not that that really changes all of that much, but
it is going to be kind of a decent little
drop there in temperature. With everything, What did you throw
into the model this week and what did you what
did you kind of avoid this week?
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Yeah, look, I think approach is going to be important
more to this week certainly than it ended up being
last week because how Scottie Shefflin won, and he said
it in the post event press conference driving in short Game,
and that's all I went, like, approach really didn't seem
to be all that important last week.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
I think it will be though.
Speaker 4 (28:13):
This week is the And you could use greens and
regulation gained if you want to add some context to that.
It's only a sixty percent greens and regulation rate here
and the tour average is like sixty five percent, so
it is a little bit harder because, as you mentioned, Matt,
these greens super small, so proximity I did one fifty
to one seventy five, one seventy five to two hundred.
(28:34):
Like Kelly said, about half the approach shots are one
fifty to two hundred. So I did look at that,
looked at good drives gained because you don't necessarily have
to take driver here. You're going to be taking a
lot of hybrids, a lot of three woods, a lot of.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Irons off the tee.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
Now the rough length is shortened from last year, like
Kelly mentioned, so you're not going to be penalized by
missing the fairway. However, these greens are kind of small,
you don't really gain a ton. Strokes gained off the
tea necessarily. I think it's the second lowest number on
the tour. So I've felt like good drives gained, maybe
even more so than Fairway's gain with something that you
wanted to look at. If you looked at off the tee.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
I did.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Strokes gained total of courses of less than seventy two
hundred yards. Even though this yard, which is about seventy
two fifteen. What I was trying to do is just
kind of look and see who does well on these
courses that are considered quote unquote less than driver. I
did a little stroke gamed around the green and scrambling
combined here just because the greens are so small and
easy to miss. Scrambling actually has been a little bit
(29:33):
more important here over the last couple of years based
on the recent winners. Strokes gained par four four hundred
and four to fifty six of them measure that length,
So you know, that's not something I usually like heavily way,
but it's something I always kind of put in for context.
And then I did strokes gained total correlated course history,
and I think the correlated courses here a couple Peete
(29:55):
dies like like River Highlands, like Sawgrass Wilie because it's
on the co Cea Island where they play the RSM Sedgefield,
another Carolina characteristic course in terms of the tree layout,
and then Colonial and Pebble Beach where what I included
in that course history and.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
Who came out number one on that last.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
Thirty six rounds of course? You know who, Scottie Scheffler
came up number one on that. So that's what I
did this week.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, I think we're pretty much in alignment here. The
approach buckets of one fifty seventy five, one seventy five
to two hundred kind of given me. It kind of
sucks in those part threes as well. Whenever you do
those numbers like that, Yeah, scrambling around the green approach
you obvious obviously just basic approach a ton distance from
(30:43):
the edge of the fairway. Also in one of the
modeling places that I use have I put that in.
Of course, the other modeling places have just the the
good drive percentage stuff like that. I actually did a
little total driving, and I mainly did that because even
if they're tea, even if they're clubbing down, the guys
that are longer are still going to be hitting three
(31:06):
wood or five wood or three iron longer than the
dudes who whatever. So I just wanted to see a
little bit of guys who are who are still you know,
hitting it long and straight with with all of that,
So I did plug that in a little bit. It's
more of a tiebreaker like West talking about like like
five percent in the model, but enough to where it
does uh mess with the rankings at least just a
(31:27):
little bit.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
With all of that and so yeah, same same deal
for me, guys.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
I mean, across the board, doesn't matter what rating system,
it doesn't matter what how long, it doesn't matter whatever.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
It's Scotty Scheffler with a bullet. With all of that.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
So if somebody wants to bet Scotty Scheffler a four
to one at this point, I mean.
Speaker 3 (31:43):
What am I going to tell you? You know, am I
going to tell you not to?
Speaker 1 (31:46):
He's he's very I can't believe he's likely to be
in the I mean he's likely to be in the
mix on Sunday, like like what that means he's third
entering Sunday and can run someone down or whatever, like
it would be shocking to me if he is, Like
if he's out of it come Sunday. So as long
as you're holding a ticket where he's in it, I mean,
(32:07):
I'm sure you'd feel pretty good because Scotti Scheffer can
come back on anyone.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
I'll tell you what, did I bet.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
He could deliver a baby in between rounds too. I
would just set that up. I bet he could handle that,
no problem. Get out there, do it on the turn
Saturday night, Yeah, on the turn, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Just have it.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Just have already on the turn and like, yeah, just
firright off and then off we go. So what I
will say though, is I did so I focused real
heavily on more short term stuff for this tournament, mainly
because with it being so iron heavy, irons do kind
of irons are kind of streaky, and so I actually
(32:47):
shrunk this down to twenty rounds for them. For all
of these models that I did, so last five or
six tournaments, depending on if guys made the cut on
all of them or not. So it's kind of like
the last five or six tournaments that they played. And
with all that, the results as you would imagine, like
we said, Scotty Scheffler, but ended up some of my
bets that I got into the account this week did
(33:09):
come from model plays. And so at one of the
places that I ran the model, uh Akh Batilla came
in actually second in two of the models that I ran,
and he was seventh in the third model that I ran,
So those second twice and seventh once. So he made
the card for me.
Speaker 5 (33:31):
I know that Matt, I have to I have to
go all the way back to thirty six rounds before
he's anything. Uh, But second, it is Scotty Scheffler ac
she Batilla for me on everything I ran besides but
before I go to thirty six rounds and thirty six
rounds he's fourth.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Yeah, and so then you kind of get into uh
and I know this is going to sound like cliche,
you know, cliche or whatever, but I mean, like Sea
Wu is third in Sea Wu's third in the other ones,
and he's second in the one that Akh is not second.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
So Seawou makes the card for me this week.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
And again, these are all bets that I'm not like,
I don't love because Scotty Scheffler's in the field, but like,
we got to bet the tournament, right, So like we're
we're betting the tournament.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
And so you go in and you look at Sea Wou.
At least he's accurate with the drive.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
We know what he does with the irons, you know,
tea green and scrambling, he's he's good. And so these
short pet pete dye courses, we know he's had a
ton of success, and so uh, Seawoo makes the card
for me this week. Corey Connors is another guy that
ended up making the card for me. I know his
win equity is not quite what it is, and I'll
talk about the strategy for me as to how I
(34:35):
ended up betting this week, which has changed a lot
from what I've done the last few weeks. But Corey
Connor's same deal. Guys tenth, you know, tenth an approach,
these approach buckets that I put in that I love,
loves that. We know he's a pretty accurate driver of
the ball and so now if he can hit Freewood
or five wood or Irons or something, he's gonna be
even more accurate and all that. So Corey Connors makes
(34:56):
the card for me this week as well, and then
the last guy that made the card one bomb. And
it's strictly this is strictly a model play. I wasn't
considering this guy, wouldn't have considered this guy looked into
him any deeper than I did had the model not
spit out where he was. But I played Nick Taylor
at a at a big price, and then more heavily
in a placement market with Nick Taylor inside the top
(35:18):
ten and all these models that I ran, a lot
of that has to do with the fact that he
also drives it pretty straight. He also is pretty good
in these approach buckets and his overall approach game really well,
really really good there as well. So that's kind of
where I ended up this week. Wes, what ended up
on your card?
Speaker 4 (35:39):
Yeah, and you know, just looking down and seeing some
of the guys, by the way, do get discounted from
from the from the Masters, So that's something that a.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Little bit worries me.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
But nevertheless, I did go with at least a horse
for the course here. Didn't finish grade at the Masters
with the seventy six on Sunday. But Patrick can'tle four
top threes and six appearances here. He's third here last year,
he's second, lost the playoff to Speef a couple of
years ago when I was on him, by the way,
so I'm ready to get hurt again potentially with him.
(36:10):
But Patrick can't lay eighteen to one Tommy Fleetwood twenty
one to one, not the best number, but you know,
tenth at the Genesis, was seventh in Texas before, he
was third last week in Augusta. And by the way,
that third was just kind of consistently rising, like he
was never really in the.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Mix, but he was playing decent golf.
Speaker 4 (36:29):
He was kind of working down there at the bottom
of the top ten and just kind of kept progressively
getting better because he got off to a slow start
fifteenth and tenth the last two years. I think his
game really fits here very well, Like he looks like
a guy that should win this event just on how
he profiles. So looking for that first PGA Tour victory
and then why not continue that theme. Cameron Young still
looking for his first by the way top ten. Last
(36:51):
week at the Masters, one of my placements that did
get there ninth last week, gained close to five strokes
off the tee, about close to two and a half
on approach, three strokes putting that's combined for all four
rounds of course, and then he was third here two
years ago.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Tom Kim at fifty to one.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
I hadn't bet a in a while because I think
he's been doing some injuries and just kind of hadn't
been informed. And he only finished thirtieth at the Masters,
but he shot the low round of the day on
Sunday by two shots at a six under sixty six.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
So positive momentum. He's played well and kind of these courses,
you know, I actually kind of.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Hope the wind blows a little bit more because I
think it might favor this guy. You know, he's running
up at the Open. Had two top tens at the
Scottish over the last two years, so Tom Kim fifty one,
and then a couple shots that I took a little
bit down the board because usually you know, when you
have this shorter field, it's like how deep do you
want to go? But I did find some kind of
mid range just slash long shots, not really deep bombs.
(37:47):
But Christian Bezaiden, who's sixty six to one, I think
he's best on a course like this where it's a
little bit shorter layout and the iron play and the
short game come into play. He's finished pretty well at
the Sony and at Pebble Beach and Colonial, all three
of those courses. By the way, I think cavicrrelation here
to Harbortown based on maybe some of the past winners.
Was thirteenth at the Players on the Pete Die designed
(38:09):
TPC Sawgrass, so he's made the cut here all three years.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So Bizaiden and.
Speaker 4 (38:14):
Bess I think is probably a better like placement market play,
like he might be a good top twenty guy this week.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
At a decent price.
Speaker 4 (38:21):
So certainly would recommend that Sepstraca is sixty six to one,
who was third here at Harbortown two years ago, sixteenth
in the Masters last week eight t Degreen eleventh on
the t eleventh in approach, and then mister consistency even
though he's really only challenged for the win once and
that was three weeks ago at Houston. Taylor Moore, who
is eleventh on debut here last year. He's made all
(38:42):
ten cuts this season. He's actually made fifteen in a
row dating back to last year's Open. So Taylor Moore
seventy to one.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Yeah, so I will say Cam Young is so I
have three guys that I always will say that I'm
considering this week, and I'll pick.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
From one of whatever. Cam Young was one of those guys.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
He kind of falls into that bucket of the deal
where we talk about where it's like, you know, he
should be longer than everyone else, even if they are
hitting less than driver, because he's longer than everyone with
the driver and that should play into his that should
play into his into his favor.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
There and all that. So I do have him on
kind of the short list here with this.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
Kelly the only other guy that I did mention, I
played a short shot, and this is more of a
again goes into the strategy, the strategicy of how I'm
going to bet this event. But I have a little
bit on Xander. I think he's probably been the second
best player on tour this year as far as a
consistency standpoint. That said, at the twelve to one number,
(39:44):
it is not like I went overboard betting that. I
went more into the placement market stuff with him and
did the top five and top ten where I kind
of took two units and what I did was like
put three quarters of a unit on the outright and
then split the top five and top ten market on
(40:05):
Xander in a sixty nine player field, no cut with
the consistence he is, it would shock me if he
wasn't at least in contention to get one of those home,
if not both of those. I don't know what the
win equity is with Scotti in the field, but I
did go that direction as well. What ended up making
your card?
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Yeah, I mean, look, man, you guys, I feel like
I've been around for most of these Shoffley top ten
I was right there, right back there with you. We
kind of talked about it. I don't think it was
last week, but a couple of weeks ago where it's like,
I mean even these events where okay, you could you
could make a lot of excuses he's coming in second,
he might, maybe he's you know, maybe he's getting burnt out. Yeah, yeah,
(40:42):
I mean, Shoffley's just been Yeah, he's been consistent. I
mean he's not winning, but you know that shouldn't surprise anybody.
But he's been consistent, right there on the top of
the leaderboard every single week, seven top tens this season.
So that was the first bet I made right away.
I had play it, but you know, plus money. I
know it kind of right around even money right now,
but shop around. I got him at plus one oh five.
(41:05):
But that was basically what that was what I started with.
I was the first bet I made today when I
was really diving in handicapping the tournament. I'm glad you
guys both brought up Cameron Young and Corey Connors because
those were my first go to. As soon as odds
went up, I was like, okay, Shuffler's not played in
this thing. Let me get let me get in on
these two. I ran the model from last year real quick,
(41:26):
you know, I looked at some tournament history. He spent
all seven minutes, you know, doing a quick cap. It
was like, all right, let me get out rights in
on camera, Young Corey Connors. That think I'm gonna like
those guys this week, now, I haven't said that. After
doing all my work this afternoon, I don't like them
nearly as much. So I'm really glad to hear you
two are on them in one way or another because
that makes me feel better. So outrights on them. The
only other outright I added was Auk Shaveta at sixty
(41:49):
to one or I get anything over fifty to one,
I would like. I mean, look, just in full transparency,
I'm dialing back a bit. This was the master's kicked
the living shit out of me. I'm not to go
dump a bunch of money back here when you know,
I think from last week's strategy for me, it was
the strategy was right. I dialed back a lot of
(42:10):
what I was doing out right wise because of Scotti
Scheffler that that was a point. But you know, when
you're getting your ass kicked in the top twenties in
the tournament matchups, you're clear and just clearly just not
seeing some things right, So I'm dialing back a bit
this week. So just those three outrights. Camerony on Corey
Connors actually Batilla top ten on Xander did play top
twenty on Betilla at plus one point fifty and then
(42:32):
tailored Moore you brought up as well. West He did
spike for me running my numbers as well, played him
a top twenty and we're out two to one, and
then tournament matchups. The only one I've played so far
was tailored more over Chris Kirk at about a pick him.
He might as went ten each way on that one.
So that's my full card for this week. Really don't
(42:53):
know how much more I'm gonna add. I do think
I'm gonna continue to experiment. We were talking about this
last week on a numbers games. You're having to catch that,
and I'm gonna continue to experiment with these MGM first
round leader markets of just the with the top fives
and the top ten's paying in full. When you have
a field that is this short when you score is
not gonna be ridiculously easy. I'm not saying the books
(43:15):
have a price strong or anything like that, but I
think there's some value in playing those top playing in
that top ten market first round.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
I'll tell you this.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I mean that if you want an alternate way to
get exposure to Scotty Scheffler, that.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
May be is the way to do it right totally, especially.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
If we are if at least there is what we
don't know what the percentage is, but if there is
at least some percentage that he might with your offer.
This if if the wife goes into labor, like you
ain't gotta worry about it past that on Monday, if
he you know, if it does it on Thursday. So
maybe that's an alternate way to get exposed to Scotty
Scheffler is to go in and take a look at
(43:51):
first round leader, first round, top five, first round, top ten.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
You're gonna be laying juice.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
But like, do you think Scotty Scheffler is probably not
gonna be in the top ten of a sixteen player field.
Speaker 3 (44:01):
I don't know. I mean, like it'd be it'd be shocking.
Speaker 5 (44:03):
I think he was plus like one seventy in that
in that from a top ten on that last week
when I was looking at because I was beat myself up,
of course I landed on Xander and Hideki Matziomo, who
didn't do Jack Diddley for me. So I was like,
why the hell wouldn't I just take it Shuffler, He
was like, maybe close to the same odds.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
I actually met Jack Diddley when I was in August.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
That was the member that that was the member baby
that you were looking for.
Speaker 3 (44:25):
I actually actually met him whenever I was there, so
he was he could have got you a cocktail.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
Yeah, yeah, But the thing is is as Keller Minchell,
he didn't do anything for you Jack, So so quick
recap for me Xander Xander outright, top five, top ten,
Seawoo outright, top five, top ten, Connor's outright, and then
just a top ten. So I cut off the top
five on once I got to these like higher odd
(44:51):
guys because I'm still getting decent pay out in the
top ten market. So h Connor's outright, top ten, Batilla outright,
top ten, Nick Taylor outright than top twenty is all
I have uh in the account right now? I said,
the three guys, I do you know again, they're they're lurking.
I got to figure out how I want to go
about it. I mentioned Cam Young, Shane Lowry, and Chris
(45:13):
Kirk are the other two Shane Lowry, Chris Kirk really
really popping in the model Shane Lowry more than anybody else.
Speaker 5 (45:20):
So, yeah, I can't do it again this week. I know,
I know, dead to me for a couple of weeks matter,
I know, I know.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
But it's just you look, and it's just the the
approach numbers, specifically on those bucket things like Tita Green,
He's just so freaking good.
Speaker 3 (45:34):
It's everything else that sucks.
Speaker 5 (45:36):
But I mean, he put it terribly last week. I mean,
he was one of those guys and I was on
just put it absolutely terribly. One guy I wanted to
I'm sorry, but were you throw them all? Because I
want to go back to one of the guys you.
Speaker 3 (45:45):
Bed, Yes, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:47):
Seawou was Seawo on your card West He's right now,
I was on the but But but there's a lot
of people that like Sea Woo this week, and I
think for really good reason.
Speaker 2 (45:58):
He's very good on Pete Dies by.
Speaker 5 (45:59):
The way, ok So I think he's a fascinating case,
right because we always say that he's really good on
Pete Dike courses. But you pull up tournament history here
and it's holy hell, a lot of you know, thirties
and forties and miscuts, even when this wasn't an elevated event.
And and Matt, he really spiked for me. You know,
I love Seawoo.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
Kim.
Speaker 5 (46:18):
I was like, all right, I don't know what I'm
gonna do with this one. I left him off the
card for now. You might have talked me into he
may be making a top twenty bet or something on him.
I was just shocked to see his poor results.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
Yeah, it was just it was just more for me,
just the where what the model spit out? Yeah, I
mean eighth in this field, t de green, last twenty rounds,
fourth in good drive, percentage type stuff, edge of the
fairway deal, scrambling. He's actually inside the top fifties. So
you know again, it's just like that type of stuff.
Do I think Seawoo wins this?
Speaker 3 (46:47):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (46:48):
It's just kind of one of those I gotta bet someone, no, Yeah,
And like so I kind of went with that some
outlier guys you know that I didn't put in, but
just I at least want to mention that did work.
Kind of outliers. Weirdly, Austin Eckrot showed up in the
model higher than I thought. Tom Hogy showed up in
the model higher than I thought, and Lucas Glover as
(47:10):
well showed up in the models higher than I thought too,
probably because I put in no putting whatsoever. Lucas Glover's
back on the thing where he can't put anymore.
Speaker 4 (47:17):
But really, those guys are really high on approach too. Yeah,
they're just numbers other than you know. Obviously scottis in
another stratosphere. But those guys are like, you know, top three,
top five on approach that I've noticed. Really, and this
is deep history too, not just last twenty four, going
back last thirty six as well.
Speaker 1 (47:37):
Yeah, so anyway, those are guys that if you're I
don't know, if you're if you're looking for somebody else,
you can at least dig a little bit deeper than them.
I'm only gonna put so many things on my card
this week, and like I said, betting strategy guys, a
way I'm going about this this week until I figure
out how to really navigate. This is kind of like
this almost unprecedented for for us, you know, where we
do have a guy that's just so incredibly dominant and
(47:58):
so whatever. So like I said, I'm going in on
these guys and I'm not doing the whole It doesn't
matter what your personal betting. I have a personal betting
strategy for me everyone. Whenever i'm altering it to where
I usually will put a decent amount on outrights. I
like whenever I hit an outright that that's gonna be
(48:19):
good for me, like moving forward. Fortunately did have a
sixty five to one a week ago, so it's like
I'm kind of good from that standpoint from here and out,
but I'm just not gonna I'm just not gonna piss
away money, you know, like on these shorter field stuf
where I think Scotty's went equity is so high. So
like I said, I I peeled back the outright price
on all these guys and put like much more into
(48:40):
these five top five, top ten, top ten, top twenty
stuff like that, and you know, listen, battle it out
to you know, battle it out to be in that
top ten and understand that Scotty might run away with
this thing by three or four strokes.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Again, I'm fine with that.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
But until I see something different, that's kind of how
I'm going to look at It's just specifically the short
field events right where where? And I mean a no
cut event, like a no cut event, Like you tell
me Scotty can't go seven under seven under on a
Saturday Sunday to come back and win a frig of
course he can, Like you know.
Speaker 5 (49:13):
You're even you're you're giving him an extra You're giving
him a free free bingo square basically to have a
bound a bad round for him, a bad round on
Thursday or Friday and actually have time to recover.
Speaker 1 (49:23):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So it's just for me. That's how
I'm gonna do this at this tournament. We'll see how
it pans out. I'm you know, I'm I am not
too cocky in my betting stuff to under to not
be able to like mess around with stuff and like
try and figure out what works and what can be
more profitable with everything, like just because stuff's worked in
the past. We haven't had someone be as dominant as
Scotti in quite some while, so so I've just I've
(49:45):
gotta I've got to adjust, you know, you gotta adjust.
Speaker 5 (49:48):
And I would say the regular reminder. We've brought it
up on a few pods you know, already this year,
but they're a lot of those shops, we'll have that
winner without market. Make sure to check it out. I
I mean, I saw something I really dabbled with last week.
But you know, tournaments beforehand, Yeah, I've been. I've been there.
I've been in those in you know, simple price shopping too,
right like there where it will blow your mind how
(50:09):
many times you can find it if you walk into
one guy where odds are maybe you're getting them. I'm
just make up something. But you know, twenty to one
in winter without winter without market, and you shop around,
that's the best number you can find in that And
then you might find out outrights that are the same
damn number in other shops, just depend if they've been
better or not.
Speaker 1 (50:27):
Yeah, So it's uh, you know, it's just it's interesting
and we'll see how all well, how it all plays
out time.
Speaker 3 (50:34):
I'm rooting for. I'm rooting for that baby to come.
Speaker 1 (50:36):
I'm rooting for for a few weeks of uh, of
being able to best some tournaments without Scotty in the field.
Speaker 3 (50:41):
That is that, it's for sure, guys.
Speaker 1 (50:43):
A reminder over at vs dot com you and get
West is full right up of the course, all the breakdown.
If you want to go in and do your own stuff,
your own research. Be sure we encourage the hell out
of that.
Speaker 5 (50:53):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (50:53):
The also the the the ongoing reminder that whenever we
say our models, we are using someone else this coding.
We are not coders, we are not code a model.
We're just going in and plugging in some information that
we find important, but letting their algorithms spit out what
the outcome is. So just again, I don't want to
give credit where credits to do. I don't want people
think that I'm sitting here saying that I'm some sort
(51:14):
of coder and I'm bitted a model. I did not,
So I am using someone else's great work on all
of that. Shout out to bet the number, Shout out
to Rick run Good, shout out to bet spurts out there.
Use all three of those and take their information and
kind of go from there with how I'm going to
construct a betting card again. If you want forty one
dollars off an annual subscription promo code golf over at
(51:34):
Visa dot com. If you want all of our picks
Vson dot com slash picks as well for West for Kelly.
Speaker 3 (51:40):
I'm Matt. Good luck on all your RBC Bets
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Hello and welcome to another edition of long Shots, the
RBC Heritage Edition. It is Matt Brown, it is Kelly Bidlin,
it is Wes Reynolds. It is a golf betting podcast
here on the Vson Podcast Network. Appreciate you, guys subscribing,
and if you haven't done so already, go ahead hit
that subscribe button.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
Do appreciate that as well. Fellows.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
We will get into what's going to go down over
there at Harbor Town elevated event, limited field, no cut,
but let's go ahead do a quick little recap of
what went on over at Augusta. Pretty much, yeah, pretty much,
pretty much what we said happened.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I got my ass kicked this week. I won two bets.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
I won a will Zala Taurus top ten, I won
a Scottie three ball and that was it, and everything
else was a loser and so not a profitable tournament
for me. But you know, listen, you're not gonna win
every single week, so it kind of is what it is,
and you know it's it. Did I will admit change
my approach at least a little bit for this week
as we enter this thing as to how I'm gonna approach,
(01:15):
And you know, we can actually talk a little bit
of betting strategy when we get to our card a
little bit later too. But uh, more than anything, guys,
I made a statement on Twitter that I got some
backlash from. I kind of want to get Yell's opinion
on this, where I was kind of saying, like, listen,
he's already the best player in the world without a
doubt right now and has said from a pure skills perspective,
(01:37):
he's probably in the goat discussion, and if he continues
on this run, he is going to be firmly in
the goat discussion. And I got, you know, all the
people coming and screaming at me about Tiger and.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
But you know, if you look and Wes, you, you know,
you're a good historian on the statistics and all this
stuff like that.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
He drives it farther than Tiger. His ball striking numbers
are better than Tiger. He's short game numbers are better
than the only thing that he is not as good
as Tiger as the putting stuff and I don't know
if that's not coming around as well.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Now the did he do? Has he done it as
long as Tiger? Of course not, he hasn't done it.
He only turned pro four years ago, so no, he
has not done it as.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Long as Tiger.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
I was saying he is well on the way there
with the numbers that he is putting up, and I
got met with so much resistance. But if you look
the guys the last nine majors, he's getting one hundred
and one strokes on the field over the last nine majors.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
I mean, this is insanity.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
And I guess you know, if you want a fanboy
and stuff, we get in people want to argue the
Jordan versus Lebronz stuff and all like that, and like
nobody wants to take into consideration that maybe the person
of their generation could be getting eclipsed by someone, you know,
coming along the way. I just don't know why we
can't look at what we're seeing right now and give
full appreciation to Scotty and understand that what we're seeing
(02:55):
right now is really some ridiculously historic stuff against a
much deeper field of golfers than Tiger had to deal with.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
Yeah, and look, I think at least people should go halfway,
which is where I'm going here, because of the fact that, yeah,
not yet, with the wrong numbers, where Tiger was winning
eight times a year multiple years and won three majors
in a season. Because we have seen probably over the
last decade, we've seen little spurts from several different players.
(03:25):
We've seen a spurt from Rory. We've seen a spurt
when Jason Day was number one in the world. We've
seen one from Brooks, We've seen one from DJ, We've
seen one from Jordan's Speed, We've seen one from Rom.
This feels like it has a longer staying power than
just a spurt. Now, who knows, maybe you know his
impending arrival here within the next week or week and
(03:45):
a half or so, maybe that changes you a little bit.
I have no idea, but I just know from what
I see with my eyes, you know. And then obviously
looking at the numbers, he's putting up numbers that are
lapping the field right now. So you at least got
to go halfway. Now, I'm not one of these ones
that say, Okay, he should be odds on to win
a major.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Not yet, not yet.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
But look, If he finishes twenty twenty four and he's
won at least two majors and you know six times,
like let's say six overall wins on the tour, six
or seven, then you're probably looking at a guy that's
gonna get into like plus two to one or two
fifty range at least to win this thing. So, yeah,
he's not there yet, but he's closer than any player
(04:27):
has been in the last decade plus.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Yeah, we look at this guy and I just I
you know, we don't have to sit here and say
all the stats. Could we say them every week whenever
we review these tournaments, right, Like, we can tell you
all of the categories that he is number one on
tour and it's basically all of them, you know. And
so it's just a deal where I'm not saying I'm
this is taking nothing away from Tiger. What I think
(04:52):
we should just be able to be able to have
a nice discussion about and at least understand, is Tiger
bred this generation of players like Tiger started this deal
where guys that weigh one hundred and sixty five pounds
can drive it three hundred and twenty yards like Will
salatorus all like Tiger made these guys. Now, are the
fields deeper now than they were when Tiger was going
(05:13):
through this?
Speaker 5 (05:14):
It is?
Speaker 3 (05:14):
It is unequivocally yes.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Like you have to understand that, Like, there are more
guys that teed up every single week on the PGA
Tour now that can go out and win than there
was when Tiger was in his hey day. Again, that
is not a knock against Tiger. He can only play
against the people that were of his generation and that
were in the fields with him. But it still doesn't
change the fact that this is the deepest the PGA
Tour has ever been with season veterans.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
And I say season veterans.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
This guy like guys in their mid thirties now, you know,
like guys in their mid thirties of the season veterans.
Speaker 5 (05:42):
Maybe yeah, a year ago or half ago is the
deepest we've ever seen.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
But yeah, yeah, and like, and now you're getting all
these guys in their early twenties that are legitimate, real
contenders every time they teed up. And I think we
just have to be able to acknowledge that without saying
that it's asinine for for us to consider.
Speaker 5 (05:57):
It's not asinine. I'm gonna go halfway like wes Uh, yeah,
I'm the I'm that guy that's one of that wants
to say, don't ruin my childhood. Michael Jordan and Tiger
Woods were the greatest I've ever seen. But I think
you're yes. I think it's asinine for you not to
be able to to entertain a conversation like this because
(06:19):
because of everything you just said, I think every a
lot of what you just said is the Jordan Lebron
comp coup. Right, It's okay, a lot of what Jordan
was doing people weren't doing in the NBA, and that
helped develop the game and take it to a next level.
And at the same time, he wasn't playing against players
that I feel like Lebron has had to play through
(06:40):
through his entire career. He didn't have to go up through,
you know, athletic freaks like Giannis Ante to Koupo, a
guy like that changed the change the game and shooting
the ball with Stephen Curry like, it's the same type.
It's kind of the same type of argument to me.
It's just it's understanding what what greatness looks like in
different eras of the sport. Whether we're talking the NBA
(07:01):
or whether we're talking golf, I think that applies. Yeah, absolutely,
I think there's a lot of the same arguments that
carry over.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
It's just people think that whenever you're comparing eras that
you're knocking the previous one. And it's not that, it's
it's just understanding the stuff of all sports evolves like
sports have has evolved, to say, and golf has evolved
just like all the other sports. And so for us
to look at what Scotty Scheffler's doing, who is averaging
a ridiculously, ridiculously long amount off the tee, who is
(07:28):
putting the ball twelve feet from the hole, every friggin'
approach that he does that is literally butterhands around the
green and all these things, like you can point a
hole in one aspect of his game and that's the putting.
And he's figured it out good enough to go out
and win a ton of times in the last three years.
And so I just don't you know again, I I'm
I think we have to really do appreciate the greatness
(07:51):
that we're witnessing right now with Scotti Scheffler. As far
as other takeaways from the tournament, guys, I'm being out
there on Friday, I don't you know?
Speaker 5 (08:00):
Yeah you were?
Speaker 3 (08:01):
How was it?
Speaker 5 (08:02):
How was the pimento cheese? The pimento sandwich? Did you
have one?
Speaker 1 (08:05):
If you thought for if you think for a second
that I'm gonna eat a pimento cheese sandwich that sitting
that had been sitting out for like who knows how
many hours and whatever and all that. Like I just
see these guys walking by grabbing these pimento cheese and
egg salad sandwiches sitting out of.
Speaker 5 (08:18):
The salad y.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Yeah, and I'm just kind of like, I'm like, you
guys be braver than I am.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Like IMI back there, Yeah, ain't touching that, Like I
mean I I ain't touching it, Like it's not happening.
Speaker 5 (08:33):
How was the cocktail selection?
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Not great?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Really?
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Yeah? Beer and white don't.
Speaker 5 (08:38):
I don't know why I just thought to ask that,
but like, I mean, golf's kind of elevating the entertainment
factor and the masters know did you say beer and
white wine everywhere else?
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Yes?
Speaker 4 (08:48):
Uh?
Speaker 3 (08:49):
Not at the Master beer and white wine only. That's it.
Speaker 5 (08:51):
Does everybody know this? Am I just finding this out?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
I can tell you this.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
I don't think everyone knows this because I sure as
hell didn't know that that when I got there going
to beer.
Speaker 5 (09:00):
Oh my god, breaking breaking news, Steven Jong, grab this
for a clipper. You're kidding me. Beer and white wine
is all these servant the masters.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
I was expecting something more.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Off my list, Yes, I Matt, Hey, so I literally
I said to uh. I said to one of the
the ladies at the checkout, and I said, hey, where
can I get like a bootleg cocktail around here? Like
there has to be someone, like, you know, back behind
a bush or something.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
She goes, well, do you know a member?
Speaker 5 (09:28):
And I'm like, oh, I.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Was like, I was like, I do not know a member?
And she goes, well, then there ain't no cocktails out
here now. So it's basically you can go in the
you can go in the clubhouse and you can get
yourself a cocktail if you're a member.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
But like, yeah, that was a beer and white wine.
Speaker 5 (09:45):
My mind is blown right now.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
And let me tell you something fellas Uh. Since it
was a very very long day out there, I was like,
I can't drink beer for twelve nights. Yes, So I
had more white wine in one single day than I've
had in my whole life combined, like like literally my
whole life combined. I had more white wine in a
single day than I had combined and all in her
(10:09):
and it was horrible. Like it got to a point like, listen,
we're all friends here on this. That's fine.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
No one said, you know, just the three of us.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
It got to the point like midway through the afternoon
where I was buying a power aid and I was
like taking a slug of white and then shooting it
with a shot of power like I was like, I
was like I was making my own little mixed drink
because I couldn't get it down anymore.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Like it was, it was so bad, Like it was
so horrible.
Speaker 5 (10:35):
I definitely would I definitely would have had like four
beers and then it would have been like I can't
walk around anymore. Wait, entirely, way too full to move anymore.
I'm gonna have to plant my ass on whatever.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Like let me get let me get one of them
Georgia peach ice teams.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I was literally sitting there shooting wine, chasing wine with
power aids because like that's the only way that I
could get it down.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
At least you powered through. Man, there you go. I'm impressed.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
So the thing I will say that Weather, I know
they talked about it a ton, I know whatever, like
it really was.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
It was.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
It was insane. There were points I had to close
my eyes. I couldn't even see it was blowing stuff
all around so badly.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
So I'm not gonna say we got robbed out of
a out of a normal tournament of the Masters, but like, look,
nobody was trying anything at all. I mean, like like nothing,
like it was just survival out there. And I get
it because I mean literally there were multiple times I
had to my head and cover up my eyes because
stuff was just flying around, hit me in the eyes
(11:30):
and kulding whatever. So you know, I'm taking nothing away
from Scotty. I'm just taking more. I'm just talking more
about the guys that really really struggled, and not necessarily
the guys that missed the cut, but the guys that
just you know, finished a little bit lower. I didn't
really have a they didn't really have four rounds to
go at it, you know, and like I do wonder
if it could have changed anything, But all that does
is just really highlight how much better Scotty is than
(11:50):
everybody else, because he was able to he was able
to navigate all of that, and he was playing in
the toughest of it.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
Like you know, those.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Guys that were out super early on Thursday probably got
the best of those conditions for like two hours because
there was some softness of the course and then obviously
the wind picked up.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
But and one of those guys, of course was Bryson.
Speaker 4 (12:11):
Yeah, and that's why he was in contention because he
got Yeah, I think he was like the fifth group out,
I want to say, on Thursday. So those guys got
like the best of it, and then it all of
a sudden even doubt.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Yeah. Yeah, I feel like, I mean, look, the Sunday
was awesome, but like I feel like a lot of
people are giving Scotty a whole lot of credit for
what he did on Sunday. Mattica I said a couple
times over the weekend it was kind of him battling
through that Thursday Friday where it was like, you know,
I'm back, you were out there, I'm back, you know,
back home watching it on the couch, watching basically full
(12:42):
coverage from beginning to end, and it was you know,
we've seen this before at US opens it British opens
and what you know, but some of these guys that
are world class players when they just can't, like you said,
like you said, try anything or even just play the
game that they want to play because they're getting so
frustrated by the by the conditions, by the wind, you know,
(13:03):
rain early, I guess, but you know, win for the
most part. And then I mean the greens. I don't
remember seeing a Masters where you know, guys were missing
putts by it was a foot and a half wide,
you know, left or right of the hole.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
It was.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
You could see it on all their faces and in
almost everybody except for every time you saw Scottie Chef.
It was just okay, same looks on his face. He's
gonna go out there, do his thing and continue to
cruise through this first couple of rounds, just hanging around,
just hanging around, hanging around, right at the top of
that leaderboard. And I thought that, I thought that really
(13:39):
made the difference, because I don't I don't think any
of us had any doubts once we were rolling into
Sunday that that was gonna be the guy slipping on
the green jacket. I think, sure, you had some impressive
names at the top I think for a second it
was gonna be Chefer walking away though without that thing.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Yeah, I'm I'm waiting, man.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
It just was one of those deals where you just
look at it and it felt inevitable. Certainly did get
home with all that. Of course, most of those people
are going to be here this week. We'll talk about
them and what they if there was anything that we
thought carried over here As we head to the RBC
Heritage at Harbortown, Wes. What are we going to be
looking at from a course perspective, because it is quite
different this week than last.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Yeah, it is very different.
Speaker 4 (14:17):
Of course, you had those very wide fairways there at
Augusta at fifty one yards wide on average.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
These aren't exactly.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Like really super tight narrow ones, but still thirty three
yards wide on average. This is more of a ball
striker course. It is a par seventy one at Harbortown
Golf Links seventy two to thirteen peat Die design, so
coastal links that is a little bit tree lined and
you got some dog legs and some narrow sight lines.
But it is kind of interesting because some of the
(14:46):
courses like play into some of the holes rather play
into like a housing development, and then some are really
by the water, especially seventeen and eighteen. We know seventeen
that par three with the sound, and then the eighteenth
of course has that light that's so recognizable and iconic
for this course. So yeah, this is a course where
you're gonna be taking less than driver.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
So only only two true coastal holes on this course.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Yeah, seventeen and eighteen. There are water hazards, but in
terms of right off the coast, yeah, seventeen and eighteen.
That sound calibogue sound. I'm gonna try to hopefully I
pronounce that right, but you know, just looking up. But
most of the holes do play inland because you know,
it kind of goes through the trees, and then there's
a lot of residential housing developments around there in Hilton Heads.
(15:35):
So yeah, par seventy one, Like I said, three par fives,
eleven par fours, and then four par threes. So yeah,
you're gonna be taking less than driver a lot off
this course. And I'm sure we'll point that out when
we get to our stat modeling in that discussion. You're
not going to be taking driver very often off this
course here at Harbortown.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Yeah, it is super small greens, and I'm sure that
something that we'll talk about a lot as well as
trying to figure out how these guys are going to
be able to navigate that as we get into it.
But Kelly, as we look at the odds board this
week for the RBC, as we mentioned, it's a lot
of the guys from last week as of right now,
(16:19):
unless you guys have heard anything in the last hour.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
So Scotty Scheffler, Sam.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Burns both still in it, both still going to play
in this though they was brought up multiple times that
they would withdraw from the Masters should their significant others
go into labor.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
If that was last week.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
And they were going to do it and it was
the Masters, they will certainly do it this week at
the RBC.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
So take that into consideration.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
If you've bet, want to bet either one of those
guys with Scotti Scheffler four to one on the odds board,
Xander at ten to one, Rory twelve to one, Lude
Big twelve to one, Can't Lay fourteen, Fleetwood eighteen, Marikaala eighteen,
everybody else twenty five or longer you were kind of
perusing the odds boards of there, of course, These odds
are courtesy of Draftking Sportsbook. As you were kind of
looking at the odds board, did anything stand out to
(17:02):
you other than the fact that we finally have it
to where Rory is no longer the second guy on
the odds board.
Speaker 5 (17:07):
Yeah, yeah, that would be one of the big ones.
And then I think some of the guys that you know,
I'm guessing all three of us were a little surprised
to see at the top, you know, near the top
of the leaderboard last week and call Morikawa and Max
Homa right there immediately back to twenty twenty to one,
twenty five to one, eighteen to one respectively for Homa
and Marikala. If just I don't think they would have
(17:29):
been it would have been anything close to those odds
if they didn't put up the Master's results that they did,
still not you know, take out the Master's still not
great form on the season. Patrick can't laid fourteen to one,
but we know he's got really really good history at
this efense, so not not too surprising.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
There.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
And I don't I mean, I want to bring it
back to that Shuffler point real quick. I don't you know,
Sam Burns, I don't really know if any of us,
except for maybe Matter play this week. I can I
can't ever say that about Sam Burns with Matter around.
But the uh, I mean Scheffler, if we don't, it's
we're recording at five pm Pacific time on Tuesday. At
this point, he's got to be teeing it up, right.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
You would certainly think so, you would think.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
But I mean, you know, this is kind of weird
to me.
Speaker 1 (18:16):
But I mean he flies private, I mean literally got
on the jet and flew back to Dallas. He was
out at a bar like so, I mean, it's kind
of like, I don't know. I mean, he could he
could be taking the night to see what's happening.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I mean, for all we know, you know, I don't know.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
I mean, I will say I made a couple bets.
I made a couple bets as soon as market market open.
I mean, this is just basically carrying over my bad
master's betting. Was taking a couple bets thinking Scottie Scheffer
was not was going to withdraw. But it hasn't happened yet,
And I'll recreding a little bit the numbers of the
guys that I selected at the time. So, uh, just
just just a little preview of what's to come. But
(18:53):
I yeah, I think at this point I'm kind of
expected him to go uh but yeah, I'm I'm surprised.
I don't know if this is a bit of a
bit of a poker field or something right now, Matt
where he's like, he's like, man, I'm just I'm rolling, like, well,
I've got the best of it. I'm gonna keep playing
and racking up big checks. Maybe that's what he's feeling
because he knows he's gonna be taking some time off
(19:13):
here soon.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
That's kind of my guess. My guess would be my bank,
I got this an elevated event. I might have two
weeks left and now I'm gonna be off for a while,
so I.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Match play next week. He's probably taking off.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
Yeah, So it's kind of like I think it's he's
looking at this it's one more chance at a big check,
go hit it, and then you know, take a few
weeks off, is my guess. You know, in all this West,
as we look at the odds board, we do see
some of these guys that just haven't really quite put
it all together start to drift right Fee now down
at forty five to one and a sixty nine player field.
(19:47):
Tom Kem at forty five to one and a sixty
nine player field, You go down. Brian Harmon, not even
a year removed from a major fifty to one in
a sixty nine player field. Justin Thomas, who he thought
was made be kind of rounding into form, met Putter
is just complete, Yeah, completely gone. And I know that
can be streaky, but man, he just looks lost on
the greens. Has slipped all the way to thirty five
(20:09):
to one. So we started to see some of these
guys where they're their recent play is now catching up
to them on the odds board.
Speaker 4 (20:17):
Yeah, and I'll go with one shorter than that in
terms of like probably a permanent realignment. You know, we
keep trying to time when Ludvig Obert is gonna get
his first like really huge win. Of course, he's won
once on the dp RUL Tour and when won the
RSM in the season finale last year. But you know,
because we were kind of like, Okay, this is first
time playing these courses, maybe he's gonna drift a little bit.
(20:40):
No chance after what we saw last weekend, No chance
he is gonna be in the mid teens. And if
you're gonna hit him at his first pig event, that's
the price you're gonna get. You're not gonna get some
high twenties or thirty ish to one on lou vig Obart.
I just he's too damn good. And look, I know
he hit it in the water, you know, at Amen
Corner on Sunday, But look he was going for it.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Yeah, and he was going for the win, and I
and I respected that.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
Now, Max Homa, who I think we all like, I
wish Max would have you know, maybe don't take the
three would when you're trying to chase down Darth Vader
and you're.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Three back on a par five.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
You know, maybe you got to get the big dog
out and try to hit that scary t shot. But yeah, Ludwig,
you know you're you're just not gonna get any breaks
on this guy from a price. I mean, he'd already
been priced like a several times tour winner, and he's
gonna continue.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
A very good point. And you actually you look at
his stats and through the very very short term of
his career, Kelly, all of his stats are better than
everyone like. He has driven it better than anyone that
has been on tour for as little as he is,
he has struck it better than everybody. He actually is
even putting better, Like you look at the historical putting
(21:48):
stuff for these guys that have been on tour as
little as he has, and he's doing that better than
everybody else too. We kind of said this from the
beginning of the season. We're like, he's gonna win. It's
just win, like you know, but Wes, that's a very
great point, Like, I mean, this is just it, Like,
especially in these especially in these short field events, like
you know, we getting No. Twenty twenty one, twenty two,
(22:09):
it's not happening. So you either have to be okay
with paying the short price or just understanding you might
miss out on the win and you know, maybe figure
out other ways to get exposure to him, right, I
mean that's the other thing that we I think are
going to have to do us as better as us
as a podcast, maybe the whole industry, as as betters
and things. Uh, maybe the best thing's ever gonna happen
to us is Scotty having a baby, because like you'll
(22:31):
have to take a few weeks off, right, I actually
bet like you know to our tournament normally, but you know,
it's just trying to figure out alternative ways to go
about these things, you know, until he he kind of
cools off with all of that. But uh yeah, that's
just kind of the price we're going to get with
with him, Kelly moving forward.
Speaker 5 (22:47):
Yeah, like you said, I mean he's putting it all together.
I think there is I think one of the biggest
compliments you can get. Obviously, he did well last week,
so I will affect some of the stats. But it's know,
you know, we run all these stat models and everything,
and it's okay, dude was top five on everything last
week in a very different course. He's top five again
for me on every model I run. He's a top
five up there, so on a very very different course
(23:08):
that requires a very different skill set. So I think
when you start to see that, I mean, Scheffler's been
locked number one on those for every single tournament we've run.
But you know, Ludwig's Ludwig's top five now on every
single one of those you run. And that is a massive, massive,
you know, massive achievement by him. And yeah, great point
(23:29):
by West if you're looking for looking to be the
guy who gets in, you know, on a big win
or a big scorer on ludvig. I these about as
best you're gonna get these days.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
Not happening unfortunately, so maybe we can figure out ways
to make money on him moving forward. Guys, just a
reminder if you didn't, if you are new to this podcast,
or if you're wondering, hey, what the hell is going on?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Where is my around the world.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Remember we have split that off into a separate podcast now,
so even more reason to go in and subscribe to
long s because that will just automatically show up in
your feed as well, So be sure and go ahead
and hit that subscribe button in your podcast a choice.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
And also, if you want to become a vsent Pro
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Speaker 1 (24:10):
An annual basis, we're gonna save you forty one dollars
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(24:31):
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of all of that. Again, Promo code Golf. When we
come back, we will take a look at what we
put into our models when it spit out, and what
made our betting cards here on Long Shots. Welcome back
(24:52):
Long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the Visa Podcast Network.
Matt West and Kelly coming to you for the RBC
Heritage over at Harbor Town just right down the road
there from Augusta over in South Carolina. Kelly, let's go
ahead talk about some stats that you found important this week.
Wes Be feel free to chime in as Kelly is talking.
(25:13):
If there's anything that you that you maybe win a
different direction on him with and or if there's anything
that you you corroborate with. As we tried to get
some models here that didn't spit out Scotty Scheffler and
that said, hey, if you don't bet Scotty Scheffler, you're
a moron, which is basically what the models told us,
like every week that we run.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
This yes, no, for like the for the ninety six
consecutive week, my models continue to tell me that yes, yeah, yes,
spoiler but yeah, I mean like we Wes broke down
the course. Well, I think you're looking for guys that
are accurate off the tee. I do think that. What
one note that jumped out to me second year of
an elevated event, they did you know, they grew out
(25:51):
that rough last year to to like two and a
half two and a half inches, that's basically been cut
in half. So I do think that's gonna be interesting
to monitor. You've got a lot of these, a lot
of the different tree types, right with branches that overhang
here and stuff, so that might kind of get in
the way like the rough wood. So I don't know
how much to factor that into our thinking so far. Uh,
(26:13):
but you know, notable the rough is you know, half
as high as it was last year, and you're looking
for you're looking for accurate drivers off the tea box here,
you need to keep it in the fairway. Maybe though
if they you know, if that with that rough being
a little short shortened, that doesn't affect things as much
this year. But we'll have to see so good drives,
you know, driving accuracy definitely something I looked at pretty
(26:34):
heavily this week. And then stroke, you know, surf gained approach,
always small greens, looking at opportunities, game guys that really
put it close uh to the pin. I believe about
half it's about half the approach shots coming from one
hundred and fifty two hundred yards here historically, so uh
punch that in as kind of my only proximity bucket.
I really looked at it into in between that range.
(26:55):
You know, you got a tough, tough test to you know,
holes all around here, but still three par five on
a part seventy one plugged those in. Think you're gonna
have to score on those. And then it's you know
that definitely one of the courses because of the small greens,
I think you need to factor in around the green, play, scrambling,
three put avoidance, that stuff more than what I'd usually
look at. So all of that, that's pretty much everything
(27:16):
I punched in for the week.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Yeah, Wes as we I'm no weather man too. The
stuff that we talked about a lot, you know, but
it is a course that can get windy, but as
of now, it doesn't look like it's going to be.
I think the only thing that's a little bit of
note is Sunday it kind of drops off in temperature,
which is weird, like it's.
Speaker 3 (27:36):
In the eighties.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
It's kind of like in high seventies, low eighties for
the first three days and it looks like a high of.
Speaker 3 (27:40):
Like seventy on on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
Not that that really changes all of that much, but
it is going to be kind of a decent little
drop there in temperature. With everything, What did you throw
into the model this week and what did you what
did you kind of avoid this week?
Speaker 4 (27:56):
Yeah, look, I think approach is going to be important
more to this week certainly than it ended up being
last week because how Scottie Shefflin won, and he said
it in the post event press conference driving in short Game,
and that's all I went, like, approach really didn't seem
to be all that important last week.
Speaker 2 (28:12):
I think it will be though.
Speaker 4 (28:13):
This week is the And you could use greens and
regulation gained if you want to add some context to that.
It's only a sixty percent greens and regulation rate here
and the tour average is like sixty five percent, so
it is a little bit harder because, as you mentioned, Matt,
these greens super small, so proximity I did one fifty
to one seventy five, one seventy five to two hundred.
(28:34):
Like Kelly said, about half the approach shots are one
fifty to two hundred. So I did look at that,
looked at good drives gained because you don't necessarily have
to take driver here. You're going to be taking a
lot of hybrids, a lot of three woods, a lot of.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Irons off the tee.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
Now the rough length is shortened from last year, like
Kelly mentioned, so you're not going to be penalized by
missing the fairway. However, these greens are kind of small,
you don't really gain a ton. Strokes gained off the
tea necessarily. I think it's the second lowest number on
the tour. So I've felt like good drives gained, maybe
even more so than Fairway's gain with something that you
wanted to look at. If you looked at off the tee.
Speaker 2 (29:11):
I did.
Speaker 4 (29:11):
Strokes gained total of courses of less than seventy two
hundred yards. Even though this yard, which is about seventy
two fifteen. What I was trying to do is just
kind of look and see who does well on these
courses that are considered quote unquote less than driver. I
did a little stroke gamed around the green and scrambling
combined here just because the greens are so small and
easy to miss. Scrambling actually has been a little bit
(29:33):
more important here over the last couple of years based
on the recent winners. Strokes gained par four four hundred
and four to fifty six of them measure that length,
So you know, that's not something I usually like heavily way,
but it's something I always kind of put in for context.
And then I did strokes gained total correlated course history,
and I think the correlated courses here a couple Peete
(29:55):
dies like like River Highlands, like Sawgrass Wilie because it's
on the co Cea Island where they play the RSM Sedgefield,
another Carolina characteristic course in terms of the tree layout,
and then Colonial and Pebble Beach where what I included
in that course history and.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
Who came out number one on that last.
Speaker 4 (30:15):
Thirty six rounds of course? You know who, Scottie Scheffler
came up number one on that. So that's what I
did this week.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, I think we're pretty much in alignment here. The
approach buckets of one fifty seventy five, one seventy five
to two hundred kind of given me. It kind of
sucks in those part threes as well. Whenever you do
those numbers like that, Yeah, scrambling around the green approach
you obvious obviously just basic approach a ton distance from
(30:43):
the edge of the fairway. Also in one of the
modeling places that I use have I put that in.
Of course, the other modeling places have just the the
good drive percentage stuff like that. I actually did a
little total driving, and I mainly did that because even
if they're tea, even if they're clubbing down, the guys
that are longer are still going to be hitting three
(31:06):
wood or five wood or three iron longer than the
dudes who whatever. So I just wanted to see a
little bit of guys who are who are still you know,
hitting it long and straight with with all of that,
So I did plug that in a little bit. It's
more of a tiebreaker like West talking about like like
five percent in the model, but enough to where it
does uh mess with the rankings at least just a
(31:27):
little bit.
Speaker 3 (31:28):
With all of that and so yeah, same same deal
for me, guys.
Speaker 1 (31:31):
I mean, across the board, doesn't matter what rating system,
it doesn't matter what how long, it doesn't matter whatever.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
It's Scotty Scheffler with a bullet. With all of that.
Speaker 1 (31:38):
So if somebody wants to bet Scotty Scheffler a four
to one at this point, I mean.
Speaker 3 (31:43):
What am I going to tell you? You know, am I
going to tell you not to?
Speaker 1 (31:46):
He's he's very I can't believe he's likely to be
in the I mean he's likely to be in the
mix on Sunday, like like what that means he's third
entering Sunday and can run someone down or whatever, like
it would be shocking to me if he is, Like
if he's out of it come Sunday. So as long
as you're holding a ticket where he's in it, I mean,
(32:07):
I'm sure you'd feel pretty good because Scotti Scheffer can
come back on anyone.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
I'll tell you what, did I bet.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
He could deliver a baby in between rounds too. I
would just set that up. I bet he could handle that,
no problem. Get out there, do it on the turn
Saturday night, Yeah, on the turn, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Just have it.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Just have already on the turn and like, yeah, just
firright off and then off we go. So what I
will say though, is I did so I focused real
heavily on more short term stuff for this tournament, mainly
because with it being so iron heavy, irons do kind
of irons are kind of streaky, and so I actually
(32:47):
shrunk this down to twenty rounds for them. For all
of these models that I did, so last five or
six tournaments, depending on if guys made the cut on
all of them or not. So it's kind of like
the last five or six tournaments that they played. And
with all that, the results as you would imagine, like
we said, Scotty Scheffler, but ended up some of my
bets that I got into the account this week did
(33:09):
come from model plays. And so at one of the
places that I ran the model, uh Akh Batilla came
in actually second in two of the models that I ran,
and he was seventh in the third model that I ran,
So those second twice and seventh once. So he made
the card for me.
Speaker 5 (33:31):
I know that Matt, I have to I have to
go all the way back to thirty six rounds before
he's anything. Uh, But second, it is Scotty Scheffler ac
she Batilla for me on everything I ran besides but
before I go to thirty six rounds and thirty six
rounds he's fourth.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Yeah, and so then you kind of get into uh
and I know this is going to sound like cliche,
you know, cliche or whatever, but I mean, like Sea
Wu is third in Sea Wu's third in the other ones,
and he's second in the one that Akh is not second.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
So Seawou makes the card for me this week.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
And again, these are all bets that I'm not like,
I don't love because Scotty Scheffler's in the field, but like,
we got to bet the tournament, right, So like we're
we're betting the tournament.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
And so you go in and you look at Sea Wou.
At least he's accurate with the drive.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
We know what he does with the irons, you know,
tea green and scrambling, he's he's good. And so these
short pet pete dye courses, we know he's had a
ton of success, and so uh, Seawoo makes the card
for me this week. Corey Connors is another guy that
ended up making the card for me. I know his
win equity is not quite what it is, and I'll
talk about the strategy for me as to how I
(34:35):
ended up betting this week, which has changed a lot
from what I've done the last few weeks. But Corey
Connor's same deal. Guys tenth, you know, tenth an approach,
these approach buckets that I put in that I love,
loves that. We know he's a pretty accurate driver of
the ball and so now if he can hit Freewood
or five wood or Irons or something, he's gonna be
even more accurate and all that. So Corey Connors makes
(34:56):
the card for me this week as well, and then
the last guy that made the card one bomb. And
it's strictly this is strictly a model play. I wasn't
considering this guy, wouldn't have considered this guy looked into
him any deeper than I did had the model not
spit out where he was. But I played Nick Taylor
at a at a big price, and then more heavily
in a placement market with Nick Taylor inside the top
(35:18):
ten and all these models that I ran, a lot
of that has to do with the fact that he
also drives it pretty straight. He also is pretty good
in these approach buckets and his overall approach game really well,
really really good there as well. So that's kind of
where I ended up this week. Wes, what ended up
on your card?
Speaker 4 (35:39):
Yeah, and you know, just looking down and seeing some
of the guys, by the way, do get discounted from
from the from the Masters, So that's something that a.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Little bit worries me.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
But nevertheless, I did go with at least a horse
for the course here. Didn't finish grade at the Masters
with the seventy six on Sunday. But Patrick can'tle four
top threes and six appearances here. He's third here last year,
he's second, lost the playoff to Speef a couple of
years ago when I was on him, by the way,
so I'm ready to get hurt again potentially with him.
(36:10):
But Patrick can't lay eighteen to one Tommy Fleetwood twenty
one to one, not the best number, but you know,
tenth at the Genesis, was seventh in Texas before, he
was third last week in Augusta. And by the way,
that third was just kind of consistently rising, like he
was never really in the.
Speaker 2 (36:27):
Mix, but he was playing decent golf.
Speaker 4 (36:29):
He was kind of working down there at the bottom
of the top ten and just kind of kept progressively
getting better because he got off to a slow start
fifteenth and tenth the last two years. I think his
game really fits here very well, Like he looks like
a guy that should win this event just on how
he profiles. So looking for that first PGA Tour victory
and then why not continue that theme. Cameron Young still
looking for his first by the way top ten. Last
(36:51):
week at the Masters, one of my placements that did
get there ninth last week, gained close to five strokes
off the tee, about close to two and a half
on approach, three strokes putting that's combined for all four
rounds of course, and then he was third here two
years ago.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
Tom Kim at fifty to one.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
I hadn't bet a in a while because I think
he's been doing some injuries and just kind of hadn't
been informed. And he only finished thirtieth at the Masters,
but he shot the low round of the day on
Sunday by two shots at a six under sixty six.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
So positive momentum. He's played well and kind of these courses,
you know, I actually kind of.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Hope the wind blows a little bit more because I
think it might favor this guy. You know, he's running
up at the Open. Had two top tens at the
Scottish over the last two years, so Tom Kim fifty one,
and then a couple shots that I took a little
bit down the board because usually you know, when you
have this shorter field, it's like how deep do you
want to go? But I did find some kind of
mid range just slash long shots, not really deep bombs.
(37:47):
But Christian Bezaiden, who's sixty six to one, I think
he's best on a course like this where it's a
little bit shorter layout and the iron play and the
short game come into play. He's finished pretty well at
the Sony and at Pebble Beach and Colonial, all three
of those courses. By the way, I think cavicrrelation here
to Harbortown based on maybe some of the past winners.
Was thirteenth at the Players on the Pete Die designed
(38:09):
TPC Sawgrass, so he's made the cut here all three years.
Speaker 2 (38:13):
So Bizaiden and.
Speaker 4 (38:14):
Bess I think is probably a better like placement market play,
like he might be a good top twenty guy this week.
Speaker 2 (38:20):
At a decent price.
Speaker 4 (38:21):
So certainly would recommend that Sepstraca is sixty six to one,
who was third here at Harbortown two years ago, sixteenth
in the Masters last week eight t Degreen eleventh on
the t eleventh in approach, and then mister consistency even
though he's really only challenged for the win once and
that was three weeks ago at Houston. Taylor Moore, who
is eleventh on debut here last year. He's made all
(38:42):
ten cuts this season. He's actually made fifteen in a
row dating back to last year's Open. So Taylor Moore
seventy to one.
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Yeah, so I will say Cam Young is so I
have three guys that I always will say that I'm
considering this week, and I'll pick.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
From one of whatever. Cam Young was one of those guys.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
He kind of falls into that bucket of the deal
where we talk about where it's like, you know, he
should be longer than everyone else, even if they are
hitting less than driver, because he's longer than everyone with
the driver and that should play into his that should
play into his into his favor.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
There and all that. So I do have him on
kind of the short list here with this.
Speaker 1 (39:21):
Kelly the only other guy that I did mention, I
played a short shot, and this is more of a
again goes into the strategy, the strategicy of how I'm
going to bet this event. But I have a little
bit on Xander. I think he's probably been the second
best player on tour this year as far as a
consistency standpoint. That said, at the twelve to one number,
(39:44):
it is not like I went overboard betting that. I
went more into the placement market stuff with him and
did the top five and top ten where I kind
of took two units and what I did was like
put three quarters of a unit on the outright and
then split the top five and top ten market on
(40:05):
Xander in a sixty nine player field, no cut with
the consistence he is, it would shock me if he
wasn't at least in contention to get one of those home,
if not both of those. I don't know what the
win equity is with Scotti in the field, but I
did go that direction as well. What ended up making
your card?
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Yeah, I mean, look, man, you guys, I feel like
I've been around for most of these Shoffley top ten
I was right there, right back there with you. We
kind of talked about it. I don't think it was
last week, but a couple of weeks ago where it's like,
I mean even these events where okay, you could you
could make a lot of excuses he's coming in second,
he might, maybe he's you know, maybe he's getting burnt out. Yeah, yeah,
(40:42):
I mean, Shoffley's just been Yeah, he's been consistent. I
mean he's not winning, but you know that shouldn't surprise anybody.
But he's been consistent, right there on the top of
the leaderboard every single week, seven top tens this season.
So that was the first bet I made right away.
I had play it, but you know, plus money. I
know it kind of right around even money right now,
but shop around. I got him at plus one oh five.
(41:05):
But that was basically what that was what I started with.
I was the first bet I made today when I
was really diving in handicapping the tournament. I'm glad you
guys both brought up Cameron Young and Corey Connors because
those were my first go to. As soon as odds
went up, I was like, okay, Shuffler's not played in
this thing. Let me get let me get in on
these two. I ran the model from last year real quick,
(41:26):
you know, I looked at some tournament history. He spent
all seven minutes, you know, doing a quick cap. It
was like, all right, let me get out rights in
on camera, Young Corey Connors. That think I'm gonna like
those guys this week, now, I haven't said that. After
doing all my work this afternoon, I don't like them
nearly as much. So I'm really glad to hear you
two are on them in one way or another because
that makes me feel better. So outrights on them. The
only other outright I added was Auk Shaveta at sixty
(41:49):
to one or I get anything over fifty to one,
I would like. I mean, look, just in full transparency,
I'm dialing back a bit. This was the master's kicked
the living shit out of me. I'm not to go
dump a bunch of money back here when you know,
I think from last week's strategy for me, it was
the strategy was right. I dialed back a lot of
(42:10):
what I was doing out right wise because of Scotti
Scheffler that that was a point. But you know, when
you're getting your ass kicked in the top twenties in
the tournament matchups, you're clear and just clearly just not
seeing some things right, So I'm dialing back a bit
this week. So just those three outrights. Camerony on Corey
Connors actually Batilla top ten on Xander did play top
twenty on Betilla at plus one point fifty and then
(42:32):
tailored Moore you brought up as well. West He did
spike for me running my numbers as well, played him
a top twenty and we're out two to one, and
then tournament matchups. The only one I've played so far
was tailored more over Chris Kirk at about a pick him.
He might as went ten each way on that one.
So that's my full card for this week. Really don't
(42:53):
know how much more I'm gonna add. I do think
I'm gonna continue to experiment. We were talking about this
last week on a numbers games. You're having to catch that,
and I'm gonna continue to experiment with these MGM first
round leader markets of just the with the top fives
and the top ten's paying in full. When you have
a field that is this short when you score is
not gonna be ridiculously easy. I'm not saying the books
(43:15):
have a price strong or anything like that, but I
think there's some value in playing those top playing in
that top ten market first round.
Speaker 3 (43:22):
I'll tell you this.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I mean that if you want an alternate way to
get exposure to Scotty Scheffler, that.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
May be is the way to do it right totally, especially.
Speaker 1 (43:30):
If we are if at least there is what we
don't know what the percentage is, but if there is
at least some percentage that he might with your offer.
This if if the wife goes into labor, like you
ain't gotta worry about it past that on Monday, if
he you know, if it does it on Thursday. So
maybe that's an alternate way to get exposed to Scotty
Scheffler is to go in and take a look at
(43:51):
first round leader, first round, top five, first round, top ten.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
You're gonna be laying juice.
Speaker 1 (43:56):
But like, do you think Scotty Scheffler is probably not
gonna be in the top ten of a sixteen player field.
Speaker 3 (44:01):
I don't know. I mean, like it'd be it'd be shocking.
Speaker 5 (44:03):
I think he was plus like one seventy in that
in that from a top ten on that last week
when I was looking at because I was beat myself up,
of course I landed on Xander and Hideki Matziomo, who
didn't do Jack Diddley for me. So I was like,
why the hell wouldn't I just take it Shuffler, He
was like, maybe close to the same odds.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
I actually met Jack Diddley when I was in August.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
That was the member that that was the member baby
that you were looking for.
Speaker 3 (44:25):
I actually actually met him whenever I was there, so
he was he could have got you a cocktail.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
Yeah, yeah, But the thing is is as Keller Minchell,
he didn't do anything for you Jack, So so quick
recap for me Xander Xander outright, top five, top ten,
Seawoo outright, top five, top ten, Connor's outright, and then
just a top ten. So I cut off the top
five on once I got to these like higher odd
(44:51):
guys because I'm still getting decent pay out in the
top ten market. So h Connor's outright, top ten, Batilla outright,
top ten, Nick Taylor outright than top twenty is all
I have uh in the account right now? I said,
the three guys, I do you know again, they're they're lurking.
I got to figure out how I want to go
about it. I mentioned Cam Young, Shane Lowry, and Chris
(45:13):
Kirk are the other two Shane Lowry, Chris Kirk really
really popping in the model Shane Lowry more than anybody else.
Speaker 5 (45:20):
So, yeah, I can't do it again this week. I know,
I know, dead to me for a couple of weeks matter,
I know, I know.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
But it's just you look, and it's just the the
approach numbers, specifically on those bucket things like Tita Green,
He's just so freaking good.
Speaker 3 (45:34):
It's everything else that sucks.
Speaker 5 (45:36):
But I mean, he put it terribly last week. I mean,
he was one of those guys and I was on
just put it absolutely terribly. One guy I wanted to
I'm sorry, but were you throw them all? Because I
want to go back to one of the guys you.
Speaker 3 (45:45):
Bed, Yes, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 6 (45:47):
Seawou was Seawo on your card West He's right now,
I was on the but But but there's a lot
of people that like Sea Woo this week, and I
think for really good reason.
Speaker 2 (45:58):
He's very good on Pete Dies by.
Speaker 5 (45:59):
The way, ok So I think he's a fascinating case,
right because we always say that he's really good on
Pete Dike courses. But you pull up tournament history here
and it's holy hell, a lot of you know, thirties
and forties and miscuts, even when this wasn't an elevated event.
And and Matt, he really spiked for me. You know,
I love Seawoo.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
Kim.
Speaker 5 (46:18):
I was like, all right, I don't know what I'm
gonna do with this one. I left him off the
card for now. You might have talked me into he
may be making a top twenty bet or something on him.
I was just shocked to see his poor results.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
Yeah, it was just it was just more for me,
just the where what the model spit out? Yeah, I
mean eighth in this field, t de green, last twenty rounds,
fourth in good drive, percentage type stuff, edge of the
fairway deal, scrambling. He's actually inside the top fifties. So
you know again, it's just like that type of stuff.
Do I think Seawoo wins this?
Speaker 3 (46:47):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (46:48):
It's just kind of one of those I gotta bet someone, no, Yeah,
And like so I kind of went with that some
outlier guys you know that I didn't put in, but
just I at least want to mention that did work.
Kind of outliers. Weirdly, Austin Eckrot showed up in the
model higher than I thought. Tom Hogy showed up in
the model higher than I thought, and Lucas Glover as
(47:10):
well showed up in the models higher than I thought too,
probably because I put in no putting whatsoever. Lucas Glover's
back on the thing where he can't put anymore.
Speaker 4 (47:17):
But really, those guys are really high on approach too. Yeah,
they're just numbers other than you know. Obviously scottis in
another stratosphere. But those guys are like, you know, top three,
top five on approach that I've noticed. Really, and this
is deep history too, not just last twenty four, going
back last thirty six as well.
Speaker 1 (47:37):
Yeah, so anyway, those are guys that if you're I
don't know, if you're if you're looking for somebody else,
you can at least dig a little bit deeper than them.
I'm only gonna put so many things on my card
this week, and like I said, betting strategy guys, a
way I'm going about this this week until I figure
out how to really navigate. This is kind of like
this almost unprecedented for for us, you know, where we
do have a guy that's just so incredibly dominant and
(47:58):
so whatever. So like I said, I'm going in on
these guys and I'm not doing the whole It doesn't
matter what your personal betting. I have a personal betting
strategy for me everyone. Whenever i'm altering it to where
I usually will put a decent amount on outrights. I
like whenever I hit an outright that that's gonna be
(48:19):
good for me, like moving forward. Fortunately did have a
sixty five to one a week ago, so it's like
I'm kind of good from that standpoint from here and out,
but I'm just not gonna I'm just not gonna piss
away money, you know, like on these shorter field stuf
where I think Scotty's went equity is so high. So
like I said, I I peeled back the outright price
on all these guys and put like much more into
(48:40):
these five top five, top ten, top ten, top twenty
stuff like that, and you know, listen, battle it out
to you know, battle it out to be in that
top ten and understand that Scotty might run away with
this thing by three or four strokes.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Again, I'm fine with that.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
But until I see something different, that's kind of how
I'm going to look at It's just specifically the short
field events right where where? And I mean a no
cut event, like a no cut event, Like you tell
me Scotty can't go seven under seven under on a
Saturday Sunday to come back and win a frig of
course he can, Like you know.
Speaker 5 (49:13):
You're even you're you're giving him an extra You're giving
him a free free bingo square basically to have a
bound a bad round for him, a bad round on
Thursday or Friday and actually have time to recover.
Speaker 1 (49:23):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So it's just for me. That's how
I'm gonna do this at this tournament. We'll see how
it pans out. I'm you know, I'm I am not
too cocky in my betting stuff to under to not
be able to like mess around with stuff and like
try and figure out what works and what can be
more profitable with everything, like just because stuff's worked in
the past. We haven't had someone be as dominant as
Scotti in quite some while, so so I've just I've
(49:45):
gotta I've got to adjust, you know, you gotta adjust.
Speaker 5 (49:48):
And I would say the regular reminder. We've brought it
up on a few pods you know, already this year,
but they're a lot of those shops, we'll have that
winner without market. Make sure to check it out. I
I mean, I saw something I really dabbled with last week.
But you know, tournaments beforehand, Yeah, I've been. I've been there.
I've been in those in you know, simple price shopping too,
right like there where it will blow your mind how
(50:09):
many times you can find it if you walk into
one guy where odds are maybe you're getting them. I'm
just make up something. But you know, twenty to one
in winter without winter without market, and you shop around,
that's the best number you can find in that And
then you might find out outrights that are the same
damn number in other shops, just depend if they've been
better or not.
Speaker 1 (50:27):
Yeah, So it's uh, you know, it's just it's interesting
and we'll see how all well, how it all plays
out time.
Speaker 3 (50:34):
I'm rooting for. I'm rooting for that baby to come.
Speaker 1 (50:36):
I'm rooting for for a few weeks of uh, of
being able to best some tournaments without Scotty in the field.
Speaker 3 (50:41):
That is that, it's for sure, guys.
Speaker 1 (50:43):
A reminder over at vs dot com you and get
West is full right up of the course, all the breakdown.
If you want to go in and do your own stuff,
your own research. Be sure we encourage the hell out
of that.
Speaker 5 (50:53):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (50:53):
The also the the the ongoing reminder that whenever we
say our models, we are using someone else this coding.
We are not coders, we are not code a model.
We're just going in and plugging in some information that
we find important, but letting their algorithms spit out what
the outcome is. So just again, I don't want to
give credit where credits to do. I don't want people
think that I'm sitting here saying that I'm some sort
(51:14):
of coder and I'm bitted a model. I did not,
So I am using someone else's great work on all
of that. Shout out to bet the number, Shout out
to Rick run Good, shout out to bet spurts out there.
Use all three of those and take their information and
kind of go from there with how I'm going to
construct a betting card again. If you want forty one
dollars off an annual subscription promo code golf over at
(51:34):
Visa dot com. If you want all of our picks
Vson dot com slash picks as well for West for Kelly.
Speaker 3 (51:40):
I'm Matt. Good luck on all your RBC Bets
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