April 24, 2024 • 20 mins
Matt Brown and Wes Reynolds react to Scottie Scheffler winning the RBC Heritage, making it four wins in his last five starts. They preview the Zurich Classic from New Orleans. They break down this unique team event and how that affects your betting strategy. Matt and Wes give the course breakdown and stats that matter. Also, best bets for the Zurich Classic.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vson's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlinch.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello and welcome to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here
on the Vson Podcast Network. Matt Brown and Wes Reynolds
coming to you for the Zurich Classic Edition. Guys, it
is a interesting event. We will have our thoughts. But first, Wes,
we should go in remind everybody that you haven't subscribed
to the podcast already, go ahead, hit the subscribe button.
(00:31):
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It'll save you four to one bucks off of an
annual subscription. So, Wes, we talked about in the podcast
last week. We're like, hey, if Scotty's in the field,
(00:52):
it's a very high likelihood that he's going to win
the event with the way that he's playing right now.
And sure as sure as hell he goes out, he
wins the event despite being six rokes off the lead
after round one, and you look at this and you know,
there's not really much more that can be said. We
kind of already have said it over the last couple
of weeks. But if he plays he didn't have to
play his A plus game like most of these guys
(01:13):
have to pay play their A plus game to win
an event. Scotty, as long as he plays his B
plus event, he's going to be in the mix. And
if he plays his A game, he's probably going to win.
And that is just something we have to That's just
something we're just gonna have to deal with here as
golf betters moving forward, and something that we might have
to alter our betting strategy moving forward as well with
(01:33):
some of this stuff, because you know, it's you see
what happened this past week in which the guy can
go out and really not have it in the first round,
but struggle his way to a two under that lets
you know how good Scotty Scheffler is and then come
back and when the tournament by multiple strokes. It's it
just is what it is. We are looking at the
best golfer on the planet currently. We might be looking
(01:55):
at one of the best golfers of all time when
it's all said and done, and that's gonna make betting
in the events that he's in a little bit tricky.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Colton Ohost I thought put it really well on the
CBS broadcast I was watching on Sunday for the final round.
He goes a lot of guys out here, they're just
they need a break from Scottie, and they do. And look,
you had look if Meredith Scheffler, his wife, would have
went into labor on Sunday, because remember he was I
think through like fourteen holes. I want to say, when
(02:25):
they blew the horn again for the second time, they
had to come back for a Monday finish, and it's like, well,
if she goes into labor, we're going to have a
hell of a playoff on Monday morning with four or
five guys at fifteen hunder. One of mine was Patrick
Cantley who was in there. But look, he led the
field on strokes gained off the T and he led
on strokes gained approach, which means he leads on strokes
gain ball striking, which means he leads T de green,
(02:48):
which means he's up there in greens and regulation and
driving accuracy and just played terrific and gets it done
once again at a short price. So if you're looking
for a break from Scottie, this is the week. Even
though a lot of guys, fair amount of guys certainly
are taking a break this week at the Zurich Classic.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
And listen, despite the fact that it's you know, getting
my teeth kicked in this past tournament because of Scotty
winning yet again. I'll tell you this, I am such
a fan of golf though wes that like getting my
teeth kicked in, But watching Scotty do what Scotty's doing
makes it at least a little bit more enjoyable because
what we are witnessing. We said it last week on
(03:27):
the pod, I will continue to say it. Angry, tweet
me guys all you want to, but golf has never
been deeper than it is right now in the history
of golf. And what Scotty is doing is as impressive
as Tiger's run, where Tiger really was only going up
against about seven eight guys every time he teed it up.
Scotty is going against the deepest field of guys that
(03:47):
can go out and win on this tour. That we've
ever seen in the history of professional golf. And I
don't know what the rest of this season is going
to hold for him. Like you said, the kid is coming.
What does that mean for him? What does that mean
for sleepless nights and practice schedules and all the things?
Who knows, But I can't tell you. What we've at
least witnessed over the last month and a half two
months from Scottie Scheffler is just we should appreciate what
(04:11):
we've we've got to witness, That's right.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Yeah, Look, you know this is certainly the closest that
we've had to a Tiger dominant run. Now, you know,
when you're speaking those terms, it's like that's a guy
that won three majors in a year and one eight
nine times on multiple occasions. So you know this this
We've had a lot of spurts, but this seems to
be not quite Tiger, but it seems to be more
(04:34):
than just a little spurt where it's like, Okay, he's
just gonna have like one really good year, one really
good eighteen month period, like we've seen so many other
guys do. But this seems to certainly have more stay
in power long term.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
You kind of hear his peers talk about him, and
you realize that this isn't kind of like you're saying,
is one of those spurts things like you hear his
peers talk about you go play with this guy, and
it's just every freaking Bally hits. It's like you're just going,
what in the hell, man, do you ever miss? You know,
it's like you ever do you ever not hit it
where you're trying to hit it. It's just like there's
the like it's deflating to go play practice rounds with it.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Justin Thomas was saying that exact thing, who you know,
had a fairly solid tournament top ten, and he was
on with Amanda Bilonis on the CBS golf coverage, and
you know, he was basically saying that, you know, paraphrasing
what you just said in terms of, you know, what's
going on in the game right.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Now, guys, we are heading down to New Orleans outside
of New Orleans, but we'll call it New Orleans just
for the sake of you knowing where we're headed on
the map. And it is the Zurich Classic TPC Louisiana
down there west. It is a team event, so it
throws everything pretty pretty wonky, you know, as to how
you go about handicapping all of this. It's a weird
(05:48):
format as well. It goes four ball, which is the
best ball, then it goes to foursomes, which is alternate shot.
We'll get a cut, so the thirty three teams and
ties will advance. Then we go four ball yet again
on the best ball on Saturday, and we finish up
with Arthur shot on Sunday. Wes. You know, just an
overall thing here before I let you like break down
(06:08):
the course. But I do want to tell this to
everybody if if if you're one of those betters that
can get burnout, if you're one of those betters that
that things have either been going super well or going
super bad, or however it might be, or something like that,
like if you want to take this week off, this
is the week to take off. Like this is the
week if you just need to kind of chill out, rest,
don't get into modeling, don't whatever and all that. Like
(06:31):
I would not blame you one bit, And honestly, I
think if it's if you want to break up the
golf season, this is the perfect week to do that.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Absolutely, And I mean when you look at the field, yeah,
you've got some quality there at the top. Patrick Can't,
Lexander Schoffley won this couple of years ago. They're the favorite,
Rory McElroy, Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitty, Aama.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Colin, Mara Kawa.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
So you've got some class in terms of teams at
the top of the field. But you've got a lot
of teams in this field too that this is me
be one of their better chances to get a PGA
Tour win. You don't get a Masters invite here because
it's a team event, but this is something that gets
you in the PGA Championship. This gets you a two
year tour exemption, so you don't get the world ranking
(07:13):
points either, but this is important. So when you look
at some of these teams that are a little bit
at the bottom, a lot of these guys are corn
faery guys or some journeymen. Hell, you've even got a
sixty five year old playing Russ Cochran, the father of
Eric Coles Caddy. Russ Cochran was a PGA Tour player
years ago, won several times left handed player. Actually was
(07:34):
pretty pretty solid career, but that's what you see here.
You see some very odd teams here at this event.
So yeah, it is a little bit of a crapshoot
to handicap. You know, you've got some teams that have
teamed together multiple times here, but a lot of these
are new partnerships for sure.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah. I you know in years past, this is this
is just the change for me, right, is how this
has evolved in years past. You know, we did the
pod together last year. Like I've I have run models
and I tried to put some sort of formula together
of like okay, if this and that and the other
like that, it hasn't yielded results for me. It hasn't
done anything for me in the last three years. So
I didn't do it this year. I don't think it
(08:15):
does anything because it said like, I mean, it's just
it's just a different format, right, I mean, like you
just don't know how guys are going to do an
alternate shot. You just don't know how it's going to
go when you have to play both of those, you know,
two different rounds in that format, and and and like
you know, two guys catch fire in one day and
a best ball like like you said, any any pairing
that we have here. They're all really good golfers. I mean,
(08:37):
these are all pro golfers. And when you have two
shots at a birdie on every hole, right even think
about this, like you have two PGA Tour professional golfers
and you have two shots at a birdie on every
hole you can, you can really really see some low
scores here from guys that you wouldn't think of because again,
you have two shots at it. So for me, I
didn't do it this year. I don't know if you did.
I just I more kind of went with more, kind
(09:00):
of with guys that I think are kind of played
a little bit hot right now, and that's how I
did the card. Very few picks for me, and that's
how I'm gonna move on.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
Yeah, look, thirty under was the winning score here last year,
the defending champions, Nick Hardy, Davis Riley. So yeah, that's
what you're going to have to have here when you
got these guys that have the opportunities to make birdies
and whatnot.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
So yeah, this is you know, interesting format.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
You know, it's fun, but because it's something different in
the usual stroke play event.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
But yeah, a lot of birdie's here.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
There is a fair amount of randomness, even though you've
had a couple of chalky winners in recent years with
Patrick Cantley Xander two years ago, Mark Leishman, Cameron Smith.
Of course they're playing in Adelaide this week twelve to one,
Ryan Palmer, John Rohm. But you have seen some guys
a little bit off the radar, like Davis Riley and
Nick Hardy last year.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
So I have played this course a couple of different times, Wes.
I'm not a great you know, I'm not a I
haven't been golfing all that long. So it's not one
of those things where I can kind of give you
the ins and outs of the course so much as
I can just tell you that the greens are pretty small.
It's not Again, it's not going to matter when you
have two PGA Tour golfers that are firing at these
pins and so like. Again, it's not going to matter
all that much. As you mentioned, the score is going
(10:16):
to be super super low regardless. But that's about the
only thing that I can kind of take away from
playing this is just that when you when you're out
there playing and you look at where the tips are,
you're kind of like, oh, that's pretty far back there.
That's that's that's on back there for these guys. But
you know that's all there is to it. But whyn't
you tell us a little bit about tec Louisiana.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Yeah, TPC Louisiana in Avondale, New Orleans area. You know
that area is certainly better than I and know that
very well. Pete died Design course was renovated though back
in twenty twelve. If you remember this event when it
was a strokeplay event for many years, was it English
Turn and then TPC Louisiana took it over in twenty
(10:56):
five except for the one year where they had renovations
post Hurricane Katrina. But parse seventy two, seventy four to
twenty five. A lot of bunkers here one hundred and
six fourthmost on tour. Five water hazards in play on
seven holes. Greens were done with tiffy goo Bermuda. After
the twenty nineteen tournament is overseeded with POA. That's a
(11:17):
common theme we've been seeing week to week.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Fairways.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
They're about average width, Like you said, the greens are
relatively small, average speed twelve on the stemp not really
penal rough about two inches, so pretty flat layout and
a pretty gettible one. So you know Pete Die designs,
So some of those Pete Die courses have correlations here.
Other tPCS on the tour TPC Scottsdale TPC Twins Cities
(11:44):
also have a little bit of a correlation here. So
pretty straightforward layout that are very gettable for these guys
in these type of formats.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
And as you mentioned, was though maybe it's not the
guys at the top so much, but you know, it
is one point two eight million dollars to each of
the players that win. Each of them get four hundred
FedEx cup points. Like there, there's there's there's things, a
lot to play for. Yeah, there's a lot to play
for for especially the guys that are further down the
board a little bit, right. I mean, I know that
(12:14):
if you're if you're some of these guys at the
top who are playing and trying to score in these
in these elevated events, you might be like scoff at
one point two eight million dollars. Hell, it is a
it is one point two eight million dollars each at
the top, each get four hundred fed X points and
you get like you mentioned, you get the Players Championship,
you get uh, you know, you get the Tournament of Champions,
you get get invited to that Century Tournament channel.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Getting to get into the PGA as well, so and
and and look that's coming up. And there's a lot
of guys that you know, maybe maybe they're not set
yet or you know, they can't really improve their world
ranking here, but you can get an automatic entry if
you go ahead and win, and then plus of course
the two year PGA Tour exemption.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
So wes, I just ran basic stats for me this week.
I said, I didn't model. I don't know if you modeled,
so I can I can kind of kick it to
you here. I didn't, so I don't have anything to
talk about what I threw in the model and how
it resulted. Did you do any modeling or were you
just look at more kind of overall stats.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Not really, I did just basic stats for contexts. I
look at total strokes gained and you know, for some
of these you got to add the players together and
then you know you'll see the discrepancies. You know, if somebody,
if like you have a team that gained twenty strokes
gained on approach over the last twenty four rounds, one
of the guys might have sixteen and one of the
guys might have gained four, so you know, it's very general.
(13:31):
I looked at total stroke gained. I looked at birdie
or better, because you got to make birdies here. I
looked a little bit of approach. I looked a little
bit at putting, because six of the last seven winners,
actually before twenty seventeen, when this became a team event,
we're top ten for putting average, and each of the
last four gained like over four strokes putting, So you
gotta be able to put pretty well here. So I
(13:53):
did look at that a little bit more than I
usually would, not necessarily modeling it per se.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
And then I did look at par five score.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
You know, guys, look you're gonna have birdie's chances on
every hole, and really all these par fives two or
if three of the four are easily reachable in two,
so you got to make some eagles here as well.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
So I did look at par five scoring.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
All right, well, let's go ahead, and let's not waste
people's time here in case they're just like, hey, look,
come on, guys, if you didn't model, if you did whatever,
give us the damn picks and let us get on
with our time. So I ended up making your card
this week.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
I went ahead because the guys that if I would
have modeled the top two teams would have been the
top two favorites on the board, and that's Pat Cantley
and Xanderschoffle, and then Sahi Fagala and Wills Alatorus.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
But I went ahead and win a little bit mid
range hunting.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Those guys could certainly win, but I went Tom Hogy
Maverick McNeely twenty five to one. Hogy's approach game plus
Maverick mcneely's putting, I think that that could make them
one of the teams beat. And then of all, like
the little stats that I looked at, they ranked in
the top ten, I think, in every single one of them,
and they were one of the only teams that did that.
So Tom Hogy and mav McNeil twenty five to one
(15:01):
Team Canada. There are two Team Canadas actually this week,
Connors and Pendriff, but I went with the other one,
Nick Taylor Adam hadwin thirty one, thirty to one. Ish
is what you see out there. There's some twenty eight
as well. We know Taylor and Hadwin have a very
good relationship. If you remember it was had Win that
got tackled by that security guard at the RBC Canadian
(15:22):
Open after Nick Taylor won when he made that seventy
two foot putt. Taylor's are won this year in Phoenix.
Had Win three top six is already in twenty twenty four.
I think they can go well here. And then a
pair at forty five to one, a pair of teams
Taylor Moore and Matthew Nesmith, who's finished fourth here in
each of the last two years, so this is one
of the more experienced teams in this event. Taylor Moore
(15:43):
has been playing terrific of late. I don't think he's
missed a cut since last July. And we know Nie
Smith always usually pretty good with his irons and that's
kind of his bread and butter. So like those guys
at forty five to one. And also Team Sea Island
Resort Davis Thompson and Andrew Novak forty five to one
because they're both based there. Thompson's played well on Pete
Dies at the Pass, was runner up in twenty twenty
(16:04):
three to ram at the MX. Novak's probably playing his
best golf that he's played in his career on the
PGA Tour at I think three consecutive top ten finishes
about a month or a month and a half ago,
and then the longer bomb I did play justin Lower
and Dylan Wu seventy five to one. Both are real
good birdie makers, and I think could shoot really low
scores in the four ball and then hopefully for them
(16:26):
just keep it together in the foursomes.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Yeah, I only played three outrights, and I'm just gonna
kinda like I said, this is not a big betting
tournament for me. This is a sit back, watch and
just kind of have fun tournament. It's almost like an
off week for me. So take this for what you
will out there. Listen, I'm just being honest with everybody, right,
I just is what it is, being honest with you.
I actually played one of the ones you played. Weirdly enough,
(16:50):
we ended up on Hogey and McNeely, and honestly, that
was like I mentioned Hogi last week, remember on the podcast,
where I've been like, guys, why is Hogi popping? And
then Hogy played well last week as well. With all
this and like he's just the hot hand. Like I
wanted to ride a couple of hot hands here, so
I rode the hot hand in the Hogy McNeely pairing.
So I kind of went there with all of that,
(17:12):
which I thought was, you know, interesting. The other one,
which was just a this was more of a who
do I think can actually go out and if everything
ran pure wes and like if people are gonna like
roll their eyes. But the Austin Ech wrote, Chris Gottarrup
team a team, right, Like these are dudes that we're
talking about, like just possessed skill sets that maybe can
(17:33):
just go like got her up, just pounds the ball
a million yards like like Ekrot. We've seen him just
since he's kind of got on tour. He's just been
kind of steady Eddy, right, I mean he's just been
a dude that that yeah, we're not looking at him
to win tournaments really necessarily individually all that much, but
a guy that has really gone out and done fairly
well in his brief time on tour. And so give
(17:54):
me the one dude that pounds it off, give me
pounds it off the tee. Give me another guy that
goes out there and can put it kind of close
or something. Maybe they have a chance, maybe they could
mess around and do something here. So I did play
that one as well. I thought that that was at least, uh,
at least something throwing worth throwing into the into the account.
And then the other one that is just weird weirdly enough,
(18:14):
and this one was just off of like I did
the I went in took like strokes gain total and
then birdie or better percentages and then just kind of
started to see who's who's high in those and like
did any of the names match up or something? And uh,
Sam Ryder and bow Hostler, like I.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Almost played them because I played bow Hostler and Wyndham
Clark here last year when I thought they should have
won the darn thing and they didn't end up getting home.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Yeah, and so they they popped as far as just
like birdie makers, right, and like just like guys that
that are decent from making a bunch of birdies and
sh and so like for me again, I'm I'm looking
at this as a recreational betting experience. I'm sitting back,
I'm just gonna enjoy this tournament. Like you said, it's
good for us too, to give us just an alt
format stuff give us a chance to kind of recharge
(19:00):
the batteries as we head into you know, kind of
the second half of the season here with all of that.
So again, I did play the same team of Hogy
McNeely as Wes did, and Rider and Hostler in there
as well for me, And look, it's just and got
her up and echroat and those are the only three
outrights I'm gonna play. I'm not playing placement market stuff
this week. West. It's just it's to me, I'm not
(19:22):
gonna say it's a fool's errand, but it's just one
of those things where almost anybody can make it into
the top ten. And so yeah, I don't feel like
I have any edge. If I don't feel like I
have an edge, and I'm not gonna play.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, I don't know if I'm gonna do much with
that either. And these are gonna be smaller increments than
normal on outrights, probably not a ton of matchups. Actually,
matchups were my best things last week at the at
the RBC. But you know, probably not because there's so
it's so random and there's a ton of variants here,
so you know, uh, yeah, because you're gonna see when
(19:54):
you're like scrolling down your PGA Tour app or wherever
you check your scores, you're gonna see like twenty teams
tied at the same number, you know, to try to
make the cut and then may end up having to
have a playoff to make the cut.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
So yeah, probably not a lot of placements for me.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Yeah, So it's just again, guys, it's interesting, interesting format,
fun tournament this week. But maybe recharge your batteries and
come back and we'll be going at this thing in
earnest after they get out of New Orleans. But if
you want all the commentary, if you want all the
picks again, that can be found over at Vison dot
com vson dot com slash picks, so be sure take
advantage of all that. If you need an annual subscription,
(20:34):
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golf g O l F for wes. I am Matt,
good luck on all yours, Zurich Bets
This is long Shots, Vson's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlinch.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
Hello and welcome to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here
on the Vson Podcast Network. Matt Brown and Wes Reynolds
coming to you for the Zurich Classic Edition. Guys, it
is a interesting event. We will have our thoughts. But first, Wes,
we should go in remind everybody that you haven't subscribed
to the podcast already, go ahead, hit the subscribe button.
(00:31):
We do appreciate all the support over there. With all
of that, be sure that you set your thing to
just automatic. Go download each and every episode that we
have come through. And if you want to become a
Vson annual subscriber, you can use our promo code golf GLF.
It'll save you four to one bucks off of an
annual subscription. So, Wes, we talked about in the podcast
last week. We're like, hey, if Scotty's in the field,
(00:52):
it's a very high likelihood that he's going to win
the event with the way that he's playing right now.
And sure as sure as hell he goes out, he
wins the event despite being six rokes off the lead
after round one, and you look at this and you know,
there's not really much more that can be said. We
kind of already have said it over the last couple
of weeks. But if he plays he didn't have to
play his A plus game like most of these guys
(01:13):
have to pay play their A plus game to win
an event. Scotty, as long as he plays his B
plus event, he's going to be in the mix. And
if he plays his A game, he's probably going to win.
And that is just something we have to That's just
something we're just gonna have to deal with here as
golf betters moving forward, and something that we might have
to alter our betting strategy moving forward as well with
(01:33):
some of this stuff, because you know, it's you see
what happened this past week in which the guy can
go out and really not have it in the first round,
but struggle his way to a two under that lets
you know how good Scotty Scheffler is and then come
back and when the tournament by multiple strokes. It's it
just is what it is. We are looking at the
best golfer on the planet currently. We might be looking
(01:55):
at one of the best golfers of all time when
it's all said and done, and that's gonna make betting
in the events that he's in a little bit tricky.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Colton Ohost I thought put it really well on the
CBS broadcast I was watching on Sunday for the final round.
He goes a lot of guys out here, they're just
they need a break from Scottie, and they do. And look,
you had look if Meredith Scheffler, his wife, would have
went into labor on Sunday, because remember he was I
think through like fourteen holes. I want to say, when
(02:25):
they blew the horn again for the second time, they
had to come back for a Monday finish, and it's like, well,
if she goes into labor, we're going to have a
hell of a playoff on Monday morning with four or
five guys at fifteen hunder. One of mine was Patrick
Cantley who was in there. But look, he led the
field on strokes gained off the T and he led
on strokes gained approach, which means he leads on strokes
gain ball striking, which means he leads T de green,
(02:48):
which means he's up there in greens and regulation and
driving accuracy and just played terrific and gets it done
once again at a short price. So if you're looking
for a break from Scottie, this is the week. Even
though a lot of guys, fair amount of guys certainly
are taking a break this week at the Zurich Classic.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yeah it is.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
And listen, despite the fact that it's you know, getting
my teeth kicked in this past tournament because of Scotty
winning yet again. I'll tell you this, I am such
a fan of golf though wes that like getting my
teeth kicked in, But watching Scotty do what Scotty's doing
makes it at least a little bit more enjoyable because
what we are witnessing. We said it last week on
(03:27):
the pod, I will continue to say it. Angry, tweet
me guys all you want to, but golf has never
been deeper than it is right now in the history
of golf. And what Scotty is doing is as impressive
as Tiger's run, where Tiger really was only going up
against about seven eight guys every time he teed it up.
Scotty is going against the deepest field of guys that
(03:47):
can go out and win on this tour. That we've
ever seen in the history of professional golf. And I
don't know what the rest of this season is going
to hold for him. Like you said, the kid is coming.
What does that mean for him? What does that mean
for sleepless nights and practice schedules and all the things?
Who knows, But I can't tell you. What we've at
least witnessed over the last month and a half two
months from Scottie Scheffler is just we should appreciate what
(04:11):
we've we've got to witness, That's right.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Yeah, Look, you know this is certainly the closest that
we've had to a Tiger dominant run. Now, you know,
when you're speaking those terms, it's like that's a guy
that won three majors in a year and one eight
nine times on multiple occasions. So you know this this
We've had a lot of spurts, but this seems to
be not quite Tiger, but it seems to be more
(04:34):
than just a little spurt where it's like, Okay, he's
just gonna have like one really good year, one really
good eighteen month period, like we've seen so many other
guys do. But this seems to certainly have more stay
in power long term.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
You kind of hear his peers talk about him, and
you realize that this isn't kind of like you're saying,
is one of those spurts things like you hear his
peers talk about you go play with this guy, and
it's just every freaking Bally hits. It's like you're just going,
what in the hell, man, do you ever miss? You know,
it's like you ever do you ever not hit it
where you're trying to hit it. It's just like there's
the like it's deflating to go play practice rounds with it.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Justin Thomas was saying that exact thing, who you know,
had a fairly solid tournament top ten, and he was
on with Amanda Bilonis on the CBS golf coverage, and
you know, he was basically saying that, you know, paraphrasing
what you just said in terms of, you know, what's
going on in the game right.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Now, guys, we are heading down to New Orleans outside
of New Orleans, but we'll call it New Orleans just
for the sake of you knowing where we're headed on
the map. And it is the Zurich Classic TPC Louisiana
down there west. It is a team event, so it
throws everything pretty pretty wonky, you know, as to how
you go about handicapping all of this. It's a weird
(05:48):
format as well. It goes four ball, which is the
best ball, then it goes to foursomes, which is alternate shot.
We'll get a cut, so the thirty three teams and
ties will advance. Then we go four ball yet again
on the best ball on Saturday, and we finish up
with Arthur shot on Sunday. Wes. You know, just an
overall thing here before I let you like break down
(06:08):
the course. But I do want to tell this to
everybody if if if you're one of those betters that
can get burnout, if you're one of those betters that
that things have either been going super well or going
super bad, or however it might be, or something like that,
like if you want to take this week off, this
is the week to take off. Like this is the
week if you just need to kind of chill out, rest,
don't get into modeling, don't whatever and all that. Like
(06:31):
I would not blame you one bit, And honestly, I
think if it's if you want to break up the
golf season, this is the perfect week to do that.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Absolutely, And I mean when you look at the field, yeah,
you've got some quality there at the top. Patrick Can't,
Lexander Schoffley won this couple of years ago. They're the favorite,
Rory McElroy, Shane Lowry, Kurt Kitty, Aama.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Colin, Mara Kawa.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
So you've got some class in terms of teams at
the top of the field. But you've got a lot
of teams in this field too that this is me
be one of their better chances to get a PGA
Tour win. You don't get a Masters invite here because
it's a team event, but this is something that gets
you in the PGA Championship. This gets you a two
year tour exemption, so you don't get the world ranking
(07:13):
points either, but this is important. So when you look
at some of these teams that are a little bit
at the bottom, a lot of these guys are corn
faery guys or some journeymen. Hell, you've even got a
sixty five year old playing Russ Cochran, the father of
Eric Coles Caddy. Russ Cochran was a PGA Tour player
years ago, won several times left handed player. Actually was
(07:34):
pretty pretty solid career, but that's what you see here.
You see some very odd teams here at this event.
So yeah, it is a little bit of a crapshoot
to handicap. You know, you've got some teams that have
teamed together multiple times here, but a lot of these
are new partnerships for sure.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah. I you know in years past, this is this
is just the change for me, right, is how this
has evolved in years past. You know, we did the
pod together last year. Like I've I have run models
and I tried to put some sort of formula together
of like okay, if this and that and the other
like that, it hasn't yielded results for me. It hasn't
done anything for me in the last three years. So
I didn't do it this year. I don't think it
(08:15):
does anything because it said like, I mean, it's just
it's just a different format, right, I mean, like you
just don't know how guys are going to do an
alternate shot. You just don't know how it's going to
go when you have to play both of those, you know,
two different rounds in that format, and and and like
you know, two guys catch fire in one day and
a best ball like like you said, any any pairing
that we have here. They're all really good golfers. I mean,
(08:37):
these are all pro golfers. And when you have two
shots at a birdie on every hole, right even think
about this, like you have two PGA Tour professional golfers
and you have two shots at a birdie on every
hole you can, you can really really see some low
scores here from guys that you wouldn't think of because again,
you have two shots at it. So for me, I
didn't do it this year. I don't know if you did.
I just I more kind of went with more, kind
(09:00):
of with guys that I think are kind of played
a little bit hot right now, and that's how I
did the card. Very few picks for me, and that's
how I'm gonna move on.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
Yeah, look, thirty under was the winning score here last year,
the defending champions, Nick Hardy, Davis Riley. So yeah, that's
what you're going to have to have here when you
got these guys that have the opportunities to make birdies
and whatnot.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
So yeah, this is you know, interesting format.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
You know, it's fun, but because it's something different in
the usual stroke play event.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
But yeah, a lot of birdie's here.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
There is a fair amount of randomness, even though you've
had a couple of chalky winners in recent years with
Patrick Cantley Xander two years ago, Mark Leishman, Cameron Smith.
Of course they're playing in Adelaide this week twelve to one,
Ryan Palmer, John Rohm. But you have seen some guys
a little bit off the radar, like Davis Riley and
Nick Hardy last year.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
So I have played this course a couple of different times, Wes.
I'm not a great you know, I'm not a I
haven't been golfing all that long. So it's not one
of those things where I can kind of give you
the ins and outs of the course so much as
I can just tell you that the greens are pretty small.
It's not Again, it's not going to matter when you
have two PGA Tour golfers that are firing at these
pins and so like. Again, it's not going to matter
all that much. As you mentioned, the score is going
(10:16):
to be super super low regardless. But that's about the
only thing that I can kind of take away from
playing this is just that when you when you're out
there playing and you look at where the tips are,
you're kind of like, oh, that's pretty far back there.
That's that's that's on back there for these guys. But
you know that's all there is to it. But whyn't
you tell us a little bit about tec Louisiana.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Yeah, TPC Louisiana in Avondale, New Orleans area. You know
that area is certainly better than I and know that
very well. Pete died Design course was renovated though back
in twenty twelve. If you remember this event when it
was a strokeplay event for many years, was it English
Turn and then TPC Louisiana took it over in twenty
(10:56):
five except for the one year where they had renovations
post Hurricane Katrina. But parse seventy two, seventy four to
twenty five. A lot of bunkers here one hundred and
six fourthmost on tour. Five water hazards in play on
seven holes. Greens were done with tiffy goo Bermuda. After
the twenty nineteen tournament is overseeded with POA. That's a
(11:17):
common theme we've been seeing week to week.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Fairways.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
They're about average width, Like you said, the greens are
relatively small, average speed twelve on the stemp not really
penal rough about two inches, so pretty flat layout and
a pretty gettible one. So you know Pete Die designs,
So some of those Pete Die courses have correlations here.
Other tPCS on the tour TPC Scottsdale TPC Twins Cities
(11:44):
also have a little bit of a correlation here. So
pretty straightforward layout that are very gettable for these guys
in these type of formats.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
And as you mentioned, was though maybe it's not the
guys at the top so much, but you know, it
is one point two eight million dollars to each of
the players that win. Each of them get four hundred
FedEx cup points. Like there, there's there's there's things, a
lot to play for. Yeah, there's a lot to play
for for especially the guys that are further down the
board a little bit, right. I mean, I know that
(12:14):
if you're if you're some of these guys at the
top who are playing and trying to score in these
in these elevated events, you might be like scoff at
one point two eight million dollars. Hell, it is a
it is one point two eight million dollars each at
the top, each get four hundred fed X points and
you get like you mentioned, you get the Players Championship,
you get uh, you know, you get the Tournament of Champions,
you get get invited to that Century Tournament channel.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Getting to get into the PGA as well, so and
and and look that's coming up. And there's a lot
of guys that you know, maybe maybe they're not set
yet or you know, they can't really improve their world
ranking here, but you can get an automatic entry if
you go ahead and win, and then plus of course
the two year PGA Tour exemption.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
So wes, I just ran basic stats for me this week.
I said, I didn't model. I don't know if you modeled,
so I can I can kind of kick it to
you here. I didn't, so I don't have anything to
talk about what I threw in the model and how
it resulted. Did you do any modeling or were you
just look at more kind of overall stats.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
Not really, I did just basic stats for contexts. I
look at total strokes gained and you know, for some
of these you got to add the players together and
then you know you'll see the discrepancies. You know, if somebody,
if like you have a team that gained twenty strokes
gained on approach over the last twenty four rounds, one
of the guys might have sixteen and one of the
guys might have gained four, so you know, it's very general.
(13:31):
I looked at total stroke gained. I looked at birdie
or better, because you got to make birdies here. I
looked a little bit of approach. I looked a little
bit at putting, because six of the last seven winners,
actually before twenty seventeen, when this became a team event,
we're top ten for putting average, and each of the
last four gained like over four strokes putting, So you
gotta be able to put pretty well here. So I
(13:53):
did look at that a little bit more than I
usually would, not necessarily modeling it per se.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
And then I did look at par five score.
Speaker 3 (14:00):
You know, guys, look you're gonna have birdie's chances on
every hole, and really all these par fives two or
if three of the four are easily reachable in two,
so you got to make some eagles here as well.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
So I did look at par five scoring.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
All right, well, let's go ahead, and let's not waste
people's time here in case they're just like, hey, look,
come on, guys, if you didn't model, if you did whatever,
give us the damn picks and let us get on
with our time. So I ended up making your card
this week.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
I went ahead because the guys that if I would
have modeled the top two teams would have been the
top two favorites on the board, and that's Pat Cantley
and Xanderschoffle, and then Sahi Fagala and Wills Alatorus.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
But I went ahead and win a little bit mid
range hunting.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Those guys could certainly win, but I went Tom Hogy
Maverick McNeely twenty five to one. Hogy's approach game plus
Maverick mcneely's putting, I think that that could make them
one of the teams beat. And then of all, like
the little stats that I looked at, they ranked in
the top ten, I think, in every single one of them,
and they were one of the only teams that did that.
So Tom Hogy and mav McNeil twenty five to one
(15:01):
Team Canada. There are two Team Canadas actually this week,
Connors and Pendriff, but I went with the other one,
Nick Taylor Adam hadwin thirty one, thirty to one. Ish
is what you see out there. There's some twenty eight
as well. We know Taylor and Hadwin have a very
good relationship. If you remember it was had Win that
got tackled by that security guard at the RBC Canadian
(15:22):
Open after Nick Taylor won when he made that seventy
two foot putt. Taylor's are won this year in Phoenix.
Had Win three top six is already in twenty twenty four.
I think they can go well here. And then a
pair at forty five to one, a pair of teams
Taylor Moore and Matthew Nesmith, who's finished fourth here in
each of the last two years, so this is one
of the more experienced teams in this event. Taylor Moore
(15:43):
has been playing terrific of late. I don't think he's
missed a cut since last July. And we know Nie
Smith always usually pretty good with his irons and that's
kind of his bread and butter. So like those guys
at forty five to one. And also Team Sea Island
Resort Davis Thompson and Andrew Novak forty five to one
because they're both based there. Thompson's played well on Pete
Dies at the Pass, was runner up in twenty twenty
(16:04):
three to ram at the MX. Novak's probably playing his
best golf that he's played in his career on the
PGA Tour at I think three consecutive top ten finishes
about a month or a month and a half ago,
and then the longer bomb I did play justin Lower
and Dylan Wu seventy five to one. Both are real
good birdie makers, and I think could shoot really low
scores in the four ball and then hopefully for them
(16:26):
just keep it together in the foursomes.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Yeah, I only played three outrights, and I'm just gonna
kinda like I said, this is not a big betting
tournament for me. This is a sit back, watch and
just kind of have fun tournament. It's almost like an
off week for me. So take this for what you
will out there. Listen, I'm just being honest with everybody, right,
I just is what it is, being honest with you.
I actually played one of the ones you played. Weirdly enough,
(16:50):
we ended up on Hogey and McNeely, and honestly, that
was like I mentioned Hogi last week, remember on the podcast,
where I've been like, guys, why is Hogi popping? And
then Hogy played well last week as well. With all
this and like he's just the hot hand. Like I
wanted to ride a couple of hot hands here, so
I rode the hot hand in the Hogy McNeely pairing.
So I kind of went there with all of that,
(17:12):
which I thought was, you know, interesting. The other one,
which was just a this was more of a who
do I think can actually go out and if everything
ran pure wes and like if people are gonna like
roll their eyes. But the Austin Ech wrote, Chris Gottarrup
team a team, right, Like these are dudes that we're
talking about, like just possessed skill sets that maybe can
(17:33):
just go like got her up, just pounds the ball
a million yards like like Ekrot. We've seen him just
since he's kind of got on tour. He's just been
kind of steady Eddy, right, I mean he's just been
a dude that that yeah, we're not looking at him
to win tournaments really necessarily individually all that much, but
a guy that has really gone out and done fairly
well in his brief time on tour. And so give
(17:54):
me the one dude that pounds it off, give me
pounds it off the tee. Give me another guy that
goes out there and can put it kind of close
or something. Maybe they have a chance, maybe they could
mess around and do something here. So I did play
that one as well. I thought that that was at least, uh,
at least something throwing worth throwing into the into the account.
And then the other one that is just weird weirdly enough,
(18:14):
and this one was just off of like I did
the I went in took like strokes gain total and
then birdie or better percentages and then just kind of
started to see who's who's high in those and like
did any of the names match up or something? And uh,
Sam Ryder and bow Hostler, like I.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Almost played them because I played bow Hostler and Wyndham
Clark here last year when I thought they should have
won the darn thing and they didn't end up getting home.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Yeah, and so they they popped as far as just
like birdie makers, right, and like just like guys that
that are decent from making a bunch of birdies and
sh and so like for me again, I'm I'm looking
at this as a recreational betting experience. I'm sitting back,
I'm just gonna enjoy this tournament. Like you said, it's
good for us too, to give us just an alt
format stuff give us a chance to kind of recharge
(19:00):
the batteries as we head into you know, kind of
the second half of the season here with all of that.
So again, I did play the same team of Hogy
McNeely as Wes did, and Rider and Hostler in there
as well for me, And look, it's just and got
her up and echroat and those are the only three
outrights I'm gonna play. I'm not playing placement market stuff
this week. West. It's just it's to me, I'm not
(19:22):
gonna say it's a fool's errand, but it's just one
of those things where almost anybody can make it into
the top ten. And so yeah, I don't feel like
I have any edge. If I don't feel like I
have an edge, and I'm not gonna play.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, I don't know if I'm gonna do much with
that either. And these are gonna be smaller increments than
normal on outrights, probably not a ton of matchups. Actually,
matchups were my best things last week at the at
the RBC. But you know, probably not because there's so
it's so random and there's a ton of variants here,
so you know, uh, yeah, because you're gonna see when
(19:54):
you're like scrolling down your PGA Tour app or wherever
you check your scores, you're gonna see like twenty teams
tied at the same number, you know, to try to
make the cut and then may end up having to
have a playoff to make the cut.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
So yeah, probably not a lot of placements for me.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Yeah, So it's just again, guys, it's interesting, interesting format,
fun tournament this week. But maybe recharge your batteries and
come back and we'll be going at this thing in
earnest after they get out of New Orleans. But if
you want all the commentary, if you want all the
picks again, that can be found over at Vison dot
com vson dot com slash picks, so be sure take
advantage of all that. If you need an annual subscription,
(20:34):
you can save some cash by using the promo code
golf g O l F for wes. I am Matt,
good luck on all yours, Zurich Bets
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