Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Marin
Talks Money Market Wrap. Well, we talk about the biggest
moved in the market this week and what's driving them.
(00:22):
I'm Mary'sum's network editor at Large with Bloomberg UK Wealth.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
And I'm Joined Steppek, Senior report of Bloomberg and or
Money Distilled newsletter and not surprised to have to introduce myself.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
That someone sentence on me about that every time I
introduce myself and then we have to wait an extra
beat for John to remember that he's coming on the
podcast with me, even though it happens every week, often
twice a week. Anyway, here we are.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
John's not surprised.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I'm not surprised, but boy, we have a board you
listened to. We're recording here on the eleventh of June,
and John has sat through the entire spending review this morning.
I just dipped in and out.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Yeah, it wasn't It wasn't thrilling. It did sound very
fiscal event for something that's not meant to be a
fiscal event, I have to say. And I did feel
as if it was presented in the manner of a
budget and that there was an awful lot of mentioning
of NHS and an awful lot of slagging off fourteen
years of Tory misrule. But in amongst that it was
mostly rhyming off the sorts of stuff I say, the
(01:22):
source of stuff you get in the introduction to our
budget when they talk about how they're going to fund
I know, rat traps and Scunthorpe or something like that.
And there was all of that sort of stuff and
not a great deal of meat on the bones in
the market. Didn't have any reactions. So at the end
of the day, I don't think we need to care,
except for the fact that taxes will probably have got
(01:42):
up in the budget.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Yeah, I mean I think by the way I do care.
I care quite a lot because it shows, however you
cut it, quite a big rise in public spending. It
shows that spending from twenty twenty four through twenty twenty
nine is going to be running and going on forty
five percent of GDP. That's really massive. Anything over forty
percent suggest that things are slightly out of control. It
(02:05):
really doubt given it appears to be impossible historically anyway
for the UK to raise more than thirty five thirty
six thirty seven toms percent of GDP and tax revenues.
So it suggests that, you know, we're going to see
rising tax taxes, probably which way, which we may refuse
to pay, who knows, but we're going to see tax
rates going up, and we're going to see they're going
(02:26):
up still, you know. And here we are in a
really shocking situation, debt wide, incredibly fast rising debt, servicing costs,
no economic growth, was supposed to be investing in defense
at really fairly high levels, and I don't think there
was much about that in this that puts it up
towards the three three and a.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Half PROVI is only two six, very poor.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
So you know, you look at this and all I
can see is continual massive spending. Tax is probably going up,
more cracking of the social contract, difficult in paying the
servicing costs of this debt, and not quite enough on defense.
Miserable times, John, miserable times. I've booked someone the other
(03:08):
day in America, and investor I was having lunch with
and we were talking about the miseries of the UK
economy and miseries of the UK government, and he said,
you know what, my problem here is that all this
is completely fixable. It's simply a matter of policy.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
You can fix the UK.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
It can be fixed. It's just that, for reasons I
simply don't understand, your government doesn't appear to want to
fix it. And one of the things that we've talked
about before, John, is about how hard it is for
government to fix stuff because they've given away so much
with their power to quangos and you know, other supposedly
neutral bodies that in fact it is very difficult for
them to do most of the things they want to do.
(03:43):
And then we have you know, law fair et cetera,
et cetera. It makes it difficult. But nonetheless, a government
with a big majority should have the power to the
very used to return the power to themselves to do
the things that they want to do right the shoes.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I think a big part of the problem is that
a lot of the UK is now special interest groups
who have specific interests in keeping things the way that
they are, whether that be you know, elements of the
public sector or elements of the third sector, or elements
of the civil service that don't actually want all this
to be taken back off them. So I think there
(04:19):
is a lot of pandering to people for whom the
solutions to have a lot of our problems would based
on over them not being in a cushy job anymore.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
I don't think we should talk about the third sector anymore.
I't want to talk about the third sector.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Yes, you know, if we talk about public, and we
talk about private, and then we have this third sector
which is a nonprofits, charities, et cetera, But that's government,
that is basically government because so many of them are mainly.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Finite bias state grants, gift aid, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
But with even less accountability. That's the only thing. But
but I think the one thing that the only reason
you have to sort of differentiate in some way is
it's like a kind of it's it's like a parasite
on the public sector already, right.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Onto one thing that the government could change. Back to
my American investor in him saying you can change all
the stuff in the UK. You can get yourself back
on a better pause. It's simply a matter of political will.
And when I hear that said, the first thing I
look at is the UK stock market. That is something
(05:25):
that we could fix. It really wouldn't be that hard.
But for some reason today's politicians and Rachel Reeves in particularly,
are so obsessed with the happy news they've run from
the private equally bros. That they don't seem to be
interested at all in fixing the UK stock market. This
is turning into a rand I'm gonna handle to you, John, not.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
Your rate, and it is you brought a very good
piece on it for myny to tell jest day about
that we do. We've this week along we've just lost
to decent look and quite excitant tech tape companies Specters
and Alpha. We've both been bought over by US buyers.
And as you're at pointing it like thought, the companies
(06:05):
are either under bed or have been bid for this
year and within one IPO. Well that that kind could
tell you that is that is a very rapid piece
of de equitization.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
And if there is our market literally dying, dying, disappearing,
and you know, it means that there isn't UK growth
for people to invest in, that new companies aren't there,
that fast growing companies aren't there, That companies that were
extremely cheap in valuation terms of being bought out without
UK investors getting the benefit. Also together, premium is brought
(06:37):
out at the average there. I can't remember what I said,
it was something like forty So I get that. But
obviously with people buying them think there's a lot more
value in them than that forty three percent premium, Well,
they wouldn't do it in the first place, and we
miss out on all that.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Yeah, and so who would you fix this?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Me on?
Speaker 1 (06:57):
Well, I think it's quite easy. I mean, you know,
we look at this, and we've talked about this over
and over and over and over. You look at the
UK market, it's in the gold RUMs. It's all well,
everyone goes off the verse in the US, et cetera.
We need first some signals, and the biggest signal of all,
the biggest and best signal, would be to get rid
of stamp duty or at the very least cut it
(07:17):
down to a very low level. One of the reasons
that there is such low liquidity, and low liquidity is
one of the reasons people don't like the UK market
is because we have the second highest transaction tax on
equity trading in the world after Ireland, which is not
you know, lots of places have no transaction tax at all,
and those that do have a very very low one,
because no one wants to pay this price fifty basis
(07:39):
points at half a percent every single time they trade.
It almosts to do that, and so we have that
if you get rid of that great signal instantly.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
And it's not that expense of so it's three point
stamp duty makes about three and a half billion points
a year, which in the coin takes of the excheckert
is buttons. So I think that that's really point that
this is something that we probably would pay for itself.
I TA in the law and government. I'm not sure
how you would prove that to the RBR. But at
(08:07):
the same time, it really isn't a lot of money.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Yeah, there have been some studies on this actually, but
not not in the UK in the US, but it
turns out into texas et cetera. In fact, there was
one in the UK, but it was quite some time ago,
so maybe not valid anymore. Anyway. See, the benefits of
a healthy deep liquid equity market go far far beyond
a couple of a couple of billion quity here or
there in tact, so there's that there's all sorts of
(08:32):
things that you can do to make it a little
bit more easy to list, a little bit more straightforward,
a little less expensive. You could do some various regulatory things.
And the most important thing here is flows, is seeing
money actually coming into the market to improve the liquidity.
And you and I have talked before about the brit
I said we were great fans of that, although apparently
we shouldn't have been and that doesn't go with our
(08:54):
go with our brand and go with our vibe. But
actually we are pro the britih isswer if you getally
from other UK taxpayers on money you've invested, it makes
sense that you should be obliged to put that into
the UK market. You don't have to have an ISA,
you don't have to have a bridge iSER, You can
invest without a tax rap now absolutely fine, But it
makes sense to think that that money that gets UK
(09:17):
tax relief should flow into the UK. So there is that,
and then there is you know where against I suppose,
generally speaking, mandating pensions etcetera to invest in UK markets.
But again we're talking here about getting tax relief from
the UK taxpayer, So does it make sense to it
at the very least have a strong expectation that UK
(09:38):
pension funds would invest in the UK market like they
do in other countries. By the way, Australia, we're a
bit of an Australia and I mentioned I think in
the piece I wrote for you and Money Distilled, the
countries such as Jilli, Mexico etc. Are reforming their pension
systems to push up equity inflows, not necessarily mandating them
into their own markets, but nonetheless pushing out pushing up flows.
(10:00):
So it seems to me that there are a variety
of things that you can do to maybe the UK
look more attractive to both domestic and to international investors.
They're not expensive, and in the main they come down
to signals as much as anything else, because right now,
every single signal that the UK is sending to the
rest of the world is it's a better a rubbish market.
You know what, we don't care and you can turn
(10:22):
that around pretty quickly.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Well yeah, And the other thing is so she's they
are basically mind eating that the pension funds have to
put ten percent of their money anti private assets, five
percent which has to be in the UK. Now, okay,
some of that can be an aim, but I think
the I don't like the idea of that at this
stage in the private equity cycle. You know, kind of
(10:46):
retail investors both here and in the US are being
tapped up by private equity lobbyists to act as exit
liquidity for their doff investments. However, even if you sort
of sympathize with private equity in some ways, if you
can revitalize the UK market by by pushing flows into
the UK market, or rather attracting flows to the UK market,
(11:07):
then that's a place where the private equity people can
go in, I p O their stuff, you know. So
it still still makes far more sense to boost a
kind of solid piece of financial infrastructure that we already
have that it's currently kind of weathering the on the vine.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
We already have it. It's already there, It's incredibly important
to our economy, and the infrastructure around it is a
big part of our services economy. So already there, it
needs little help, right, Why ignore it in favor of
something maybe a little more fashionable.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Yeah, yeah, that's especially it's Pisces thing they do. That
new market cut seems a bit of it because that
is actually going to be free of stamp duty. You know,
it's going to be what probably once a one or
kind of once you know, fortnite. It just seems odd
to be setting up these other things that will probably
struggle to get traction and not just focus, as you say,
(12:03):
on the things that already exist.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
Yeah, already exists, are important and crucially and this brings
the flight back to the beginning. Are fixable. Yes, it's
an easy win, a really easy winter. Why not just
do it? Oh? Well for exhausting, isn't it slightly frustrating?
Very refreshing? Anything else we should talk about? I suppose
(12:28):
we should mention that the S and P is now
back where it was Inaugurationian day, so basically the entire
the entire debarcles and trunk board it in the stock market, debarkle,
it's over all gone. I don't worry about anymore.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Yeah that was I suppose. The only thing is that
at least it's still down in dollar terms. But that's
about it.
Speaker 1 (12:49):
And I suppose the other thing to say is that
if you've been in the UK market this year so far,
you'd be up what eight and a half percent.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Having taken the figures. But if we but yeah this, well,
actually we're just almost a new high for the foot
one hundred.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
I'm just going to it's going to double check on
my handy Bloomberg app s and p two point six percent,
now's back two point one seven percent, UK eight point four,
France five point six, DAGs twenty point four. So you know,
leadership has definitely swapped. I'm going to write that, write
(13:29):
about that in my news letter this week. Everyone, so
watching out for that.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
John, anything to add, Nah, we're closing the cap only
another twenty years of performance, and boll Of made up
for it right.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
In my little help from Rachel reeves for that. Abolished
damn duty, just abolished, damn duty.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
Thanks for listening to this week's Marrin Dorks Money Debris.
If you like us, you rate, review, and subscribe wherever
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John Underscotepek.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
Our show is produced by Summersadi and tala Emadi. Sound
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