February 17, 2023 • 28 mins
The UK housing market is not in a good place. Mortgage rates are up, buyers are disappearing and so are sellers. The former don’t want to dump money in a falling market, and they can’t afford mortgages at current prices anyway. The latter don’t want to accept that prices are falling in the first place.
The result? A standoff. And that means the number of transactions are dropping. And while prices aren’t sinking very fast right now, what happens when sellers can’t hold out any longer? If the past is any guide, prices will fall very fast indeed—just like they did in the early 1990s.
How far and how fast? In this week’s episode of the podcast Merryn Talks Money, Senior Editor Neil Callanan and Senior Reporter John Stepek join Merryn Somerset Webb to discuss the scope of the potential implosion. There are an awful lot of vested interests out there insisting that prices won’t fall more than 10%, but without government intervention, they warn prices may drop as much as 40%.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
Welcome to Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people
who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Marin's Somerset work. Now.
This week we are focusing on the one thing I
know you all care about most housing and mortgages, and
for that topic, because it's so important, we are bringing
in one of Bloomberg's best on the subject, Neil Callanan,
who has written about the real estate and the mortgage
(00:30):
market for more than twenty years. That's several cycles worth now,
definitely now. And also you have a special treat this week,
something slightly different. Instead of keeping the wonderful John Steppic
just to five minutes at the top of the episode,
we are yielding to pressure from all of you and
letting him stick around for the whole thing. You can
let me know later whether you think that is a
(00:52):
good thing or not. Thanks John, I see that you
me and my mom sent and what then? Yeah? Do
you know what? You could ask her to stop sending
it to tenty times? Is enough? Mom? Right now, we
are going to start with some stories of misery because
they may becoming more may be coming and Neil Neil
tell Us explained to us just how bad things can
(01:14):
get when house prices start falling. So I'm Irish obviously
from the accent and in Aland we had the perfect
combination of a falling economy and rising interest rates in
the last crowd, which really compounded the property downturn. So
in my own case, my flat had been worked about
(01:34):
three seven five. It was a two bed in an
up great suburb of Dublin, and I actually felt that
was way too much, and I looked into renting. To
rent a similar property in the city center would cost
twice as much, and I figured, they will never fall
fifty percent. I think they're gonna fallow a bit, but
they'll never fall fifty And two years after that has
worked seventy two And really only about two years ago
(01:58):
that I got back to what it had been worked
when I bought us, not what it was worth. It
still worked, probably seventy five ground less than the peak.
And that's how bad properly prices can get when you
go into a downturn at the same time as when
interest rates are hiking. Because the interest rate hikes, me
fewer people are out there to actually buy it, and
I can accelerate the declines of so you eventually got
(02:21):
out of even some nominal terms, but you have lost
quite a lot of my in real terms. Absolutely, it
was quite frustrating having some money home every month for
an apartment that I could barely live and obviously because
I was living here, so that was difficult. So the key,
the key phrase of yours and I think we should
all keep in our minds, is it'll never fall. I mean,
(02:41):
I don't see probably prices in the UK falling fifty,
but I do think they will fall a lot, and
I think they will fall more than people expect. You know.
You you see this constant effort from people in the industry,
the vested interests to kind of portray rey single bit
of kind of okay news has signed the bottom is in,
(03:03):
the bottom is in, and of course it's quite the opposite.
We're actually just at the beginning of what's going to
be a very interesting journey to see what actually happens.
And the idea that nine months in the property prices
have um, you know, bottom up because right move asking
prices rose is you know, on one level hilarious because
if I did own a flat in London and let's
(03:24):
say it was worth five grand, and I don't own
the property here, but if I did, I could ask
for a million quid for it. I'm not going to
get it. But my asking price there's no resemblance in
many cases to my to the price of the property
as work, particularly because the state agents have been promising
people higher and higher prices in order to get the
instruction because there was so few properties on the market,
(03:46):
so the prices that many are being offered that are
completely unrealistic. And you know, I live in central London
and there was a purpose built flat complex near me
Um and one of the apartments they're sold for three
seven five. Recently I was looking because actually I wouldn't
mind living there. The next one that came on almost identical,
almost the same size, very little difference asking price four
(04:08):
seven five. Don't wear that one. I mean, you know,
but now what we're going to have to do is
you have this big, long pause until that seller actually
realizes my flawt is completely overvalid and if I actually
want to sell it, I'm going to have the cup.
But you're never going to see somebody really dred ground
in the first one. They're gonna cut twenty and then
twenty more, and then maybe five and then maybe put
(04:28):
it back up a bit just to make it look
like you've coult even less the next time. And you know,
these all these tactics go on. But this is the
problem with the market in the next while is you're
going to just see a standoff between buyers and sellers,
and transactions are going to plummet and it's going to
be hard to get market evidence. But eventually a few
months sellers will start to capitulate, and you're starting to
see some evidence of that. I think at the million
(04:50):
plus bracket, not at the very high end, but in
the million plus bracket, I think there is some capitulation happening.
And you're also seeing some capitulation in all those areas
that London people moved out to during the pandemic and
the sudden realization of actually, if I need to sell
my house or a flat to go back to London,
the only person who can buired is a local person
(05:11):
and they can't afford to pay anything near what I paid.
And you know, it's interesting to see that the fastest
pace of decliners in the southwest of England now, which
is Cornwell and Summer Center, and then obviously everybody's headed
off there in the pandemic and now they're going to
probably have a quite a bad crash. I would say, well,
this is entertaing. I mean, John and I were quite
a lot of one pick and everything. You said that.
(05:32):
But one of the things that John I've been saying
for a while now is that if you want to
see the house prices going to fall the fastest, go
look for a big cold house in the country, and
it went up the most during the pandemic, and they're
definitely going to come down the most now, you know,
because one winter living in Northumberland the countryside, and if
you're not from the country south of Northumberland, you're coming
back to London pretty quickly, pretty coularly, another hell of
a loss. No um. Taking on what you said, one
(05:55):
of the things that always happens, and god, we're all
all the trim or something will think quite a few
property because one of the things that always happens is
the standoff between buyers and sellers, the sort of transaction paralysis.
Well that that buyers go well I'm not paying that,
and the sellers go well I'm not selling for that.
So we're in that period right now. But if you
look at the RIX numbers which I want to talk about,
the latest numbers out on on the housing market, you
(06:17):
can see that a much higher number of sales are
going through a below asking price than there's normal, normal
being a market that's vaguely healthy, which is not this market.
So I can't remember the numbers. Sixty eight cent on
the on the latest numbers out today going for below
asking person a more normal number in it and a
normal market is about is about thirty. So now tells
us there's the beginnings of this happening. But John, what
(06:40):
else is in this rather miserable report from from RIX. Well,
it's just that thing we are so the next of
these basically the agent seem that the things going to
happen to the market. Um, the key thing here is
that they're telling the truth in the rest. So mostly
when you hear a state agents talking, they're lying. Now
we know that they're telling you what they think you
can get for you as to that you'll bring your
(07:01):
instruction into their mean we know it's not true and
they're telling you there were ten but a ten viewers
one in fact, they were non excepta So we know
what's normally going on with the state agents. But on
REX when it comes to this sever they're telling the truth,
telling anonymously what they really think, right, Yeah, and it's
surprisingly I could um in terms of if you if
you take like they usually print a chart in my
news later whenever the REX figures come out. It's basically
(07:23):
if you take their forecast for the next three months
and you advance them three months and you compare it
to us happening at whose prices it's actually really surprisingly
I could The only time they've been notably wrong which
during but that's because people proved wrong because the thank
England made a massive intervention and effect that the housing
marketing and terry st rates um and so that can
(07:44):
stopped the whole market from collapsing during covid um. But yeah,
so I suppose the other interesting thing about it is
that we have sort of been hearing like the half
Fax whose prices figure was oh yeah flat, prices were
flat in January and is Neal was seeing right move
trying to start the year we have a better, good
cheer and how spell does have been seeing that we're
(08:04):
seeing a bit of interest, a bit more than it
was at the botmob. But the recks of it to
the really just had none of that. The stagents would
even gloomier than in December sales a static there's fewer
buy it in Quiryes, that that's I thought that was
the most interesting chart of all. If you look at
the chart of of buyer inquiries over the last couple
(08:24):
of years, and you can see that in the first
half of the link is actually berserk going up as
everyone deferately wants to move sadly to these answers in
the Southwest. And now you look at it and you
can see it is blumping like a stone. Yeah, I mean,
and that makes sense. I mean, so we had a
massive mortgage shot in October and November, and there are
(08:45):
some people who at that point where have been kicked
off their transaction and they probably are still committed to
buy in because once you get that found the process
of like I really don't want to stick with ARM,
but that back dogs probably already clear. And now that
mortgage rates have come down a little bit um and
(09:06):
mortgages are now available again um and so you're probably
quite rapidly going into that phase where all the people
who still wanted to move and moved, all the people
who can wait, are now cittaing there's going well, I
don't really want to move now if prices might fall
by x percent shortly. We've also had that horrible mortgage shock,
but now rates are coming down stick and afford to
(09:26):
kind now wait, um, so yeah, so I think that.
I mean, it's that thing of just starting to see
that it's the only way. And I think the thing
is the buyers always think that times on their side,
but it's it's not because I mean, if the Bank
England cuts interest rates, it will be because the wider
economies deterior rating, and that means that actually much I
(09:50):
hate to say that your job might be at risk.
Whereas if I think it's crossed, we don't get a
big recession, then there's no reason for the banking interest rates.
And that means that's is ploy as good as it gets,
or as close to as good as it gets for
mortgage treats. You know you're not actually crossing your fingers.
Oh well, which is kind that right? Neil is waving
(10:12):
trying to interrupt. Neil, you don't understand how these podcasts work.
You just talk over John when you want. That's how
politeness out there. And I just think the January numbers
only need to be treated with a degree of skepticism.
As John said, we had the mortgage shop in September,
but also separate to that, people don't buy houses in
January and December, so you got a natural pickup in
January anyway, So you know it's again people are reaching
(10:35):
for that soft landing thing as quickly as they possibly
can to kind of provide evidence that actually it's okay
and kind of calm nervous, because well, people talk about
real estate like it's an acid a lot of the time.
Not now. It's actually the most emotional decision in a
way you can make outside the family, and emotions plays
a big part of it as the psychology. And so
(10:57):
if you're worried the price are going to go down,
you're not necessarily going to be rushing guds by a
house because you're like, oh my god, I could go
wrong and blah blah blah, and and that needs to
get work through the system and people some people have
phone comfort and interest rates where they are, but for
a lot of people that's just too high and they're
not going to be able to for prices as they're
currently being quoted at at least rather than necessarily setting up. Yeah,
(11:19):
I'd say one of the things that I always think
of as a massive warning sign is in centers from
the house builders. You know when when they really can't
sell and they don't want to cut the price of
a house because you know that looks bad, right, You
certainly don't want to do that. So what you do
is you try and cover up falling prices and falling
demand by offering people freebees. And we see this in
every single cycle. And you get the free kitchen fittings,
you get the free bathroom. You're either one getting a
(11:40):
bathroom in the first place, and then you build, but whatever,
so you get the free bathroom self of the bathroom upgrade.
And then then you get the carpets. And I think
once you get free carpets, you know all the danger
bells are ringing right um. And we always say to people,
if someone offers you a free carpet, you're paying too
much for the house, so you must definitely offer less
for the house. Don't take the carpets, offer less for
the house, because that's the way it should be. Them
graduated of the cycle, the incentives get bigger and bigger
(12:02):
and bigger. We'll pay your mortgage, will pay your stamp duty,
will pay this, will pay that, and then just around
the bottom and this is the thing we tell people
to look after comes the car. There comes a point
when one house building company will start offering you a
free card by the house, and I always think that's
a little bit of a of a buy signal. I
don't know, what do you think. I think if anybody
ever offers me incentives, I'll say no, I'll take the
(12:24):
discount please, particularly with mortgage race to where they are now,
and the idea in fact that you're paying for a
carpet at four or five percent is a big crazy tautage,
Thank you very much. But yeah, cars are a good
sign that we're near the bottom. I'm not suggesting you
should take the car. I'm suggesting that it means you
can get thirty ground off the president. Absolutely. Yeah. But
(12:46):
the other problem in the new belts always those are
the first ones in which mortgage lending trys, because obviously
tends to be if you're buying a new building is
normally the fustine buil, and it tends to go for that.
And also new builds are already over placed so because
they will lose value the same way as a new
card does. Um So, I mean it's never it's never
(13:09):
a good time for how spelled does because you know,
they've just finished building all these things at maximum cost
and then they're trying to flog them at a time
when the banks are most weary of landing on those
specific types of houses as well. Essentially, isn't I've always
wondered why, Maybe maybe you can answer this, why do
you not have to pay a higher deposit on a
new build than you do on a secondhand house, given
(13:32):
that the new build is definitely going to lose value
in the short term. Tend to look at these things.
That's passionately and it's it's based on your ability to
repay the mortgage rather than necessarily the property. As long
as they're happy with the value you walk into negative
ectly on day one are you Absolutely do? And I
think that one of the most interesting things that is
that we need to watch for the next two years.
(13:53):
It's helped to buy and you know that has completely
skewed the new home market. It's it's sent the amens
and new homes rocketing, So there should be room for
builders actually cut prices quite a lot now unless they
overpay for the land, which is quite likely. But also
those people who bought on Help to Buy are probably
(14:13):
in negative equity if they bought recently. But then when
it comes to refinance at the end have to pay
more in because the government guarantee is disappearing, so that
you're gonna have to all these people facing much higher
repayments in terms of mortgage payments, but also on the
value side in terms of the size of their mortgage,
but also on the property where they've lost lots of money.
(14:34):
And yeah, I think that's a trend that we're going
to really have to watch for the next two years.
A lot of people will have made bad decisions are
going to suffer badly from it. It's interesting we've written
a lot about help to Buy over the years, and
you know, we don't need a particularly good idea for
anybody except for the house builders. And you know the
huge profits that the house builders have made out of
life find particularly Um, I'm gonna stick with irritating for now,
(14:54):
but do you think that there's any good that have
come out of help to Buy? The one thing that
it has helped a lot of people who otherwise would
not have been able to afford to buy a house.
So if you look at the English Housing Survey, the
percentage of people needing money from family and friends in
order to buy a place that shrunk dramatically in the
last few years, and a large part of that is
obviously lower interest rates as well. But I do think
(15:16):
help to Buy has made some difference there. But it's
helped them buy a house that is now going to
destroy the well. It can de stritate finances, but only
destroy your finances if they actually come to sell, If
they can hold through a cycle, then they should probably
be okay. But on the issue of help to Buy,
I've been running an on growing graphic for probably five
(15:38):
six years now called help to Boom, which kind of
shows how every single time the housing market starts to
turn negative, the government comes in and intervenes and does
something to help buyers and support the market. And that's
going to be another thing to really watch, whether the
government is willing to annoy a lot of its natural
voters who have gotten used to their house price going
(16:00):
up by pounds a year, and doing some sort of
scheme to help booster What is there left? What is
their left. They've done everything. And what we've seen in
the last cycles that we've lived through, they've been very
small cycles that all us all of us seeing because
the government has stepped in really quickly with lower interest rates.
And one of the things that John and I writing
about it, you know, people go, well, house precedent was
(16:21):
gone back jud looks like a blip in the great
scheme of etcetera. But most of those occasions have seen
interest rates full dramatically and access sorts things out. But
that is definitely not going to happen this time. We
can't have more help to buy what what can they
do but in a sort of more tax relief for
something old trashion like that, I can't see them doing that.
I just think politically it's unpowerful for them to do
(16:43):
that now. But I would agree with you on that level,
because like back home, just before the massive crash, you know,
they cuts damp judy as the last kind of team
to keep the market going. And you know, the government
keeps on thinkering and stamp judy and cutting stamp judy
to keep the market going, and it tends it up
for a few months and then reality sets in. You know,
these measures do not help people buy houses. They help
(17:05):
people who own houses, and so they become more unaffordable.
And then you have another announcement designed apparently to help
home buyers, but actually they are in effect they help
the people who already own homes by sending the values
of their properties higher. I have skepticism that they can
do at this time. Well it's not that, I actually
think the political calculus has changed quite a lot. I mean,
the the average to the fostering buyel is like something
(17:28):
stupid like and mid thoughts. Now the main money they
have is myself that I don't know what only trying
with the list sense is. But something like thirty percent
or so people win their homes right, even no mortgage
at all. About thirty percent have a mortgage, and most
of those are people who are already better off than
the average. So you have this massive sort of like
(17:49):
voter pool of people who are incredibly piste off that
they can't buy a house. Um, and you know we
talked about they can, you know what they can. Servatives
has been a natural party of homeowners, but all of
the heartened, largely under new labor in the kind of
twenty play, have gotten Brown government and at that point,
by this is not a political point. My point is
(18:09):
more some at one point it was a massive vote
when not to keep house places going up as much
as possible. I don't actually think that's the case anymore.
I think even people who own houses, like people who
are all doesn't noise. I think a significant proportion them
I think, oh god, who are my kids going to
afford the house? And so okay, they've got lords of assets,
but they're realizing, well, I'm going to re funnel half
(18:30):
of these half of this, you know, my my pension
and all the rest that's going to expand go or
in buying my kids a house. So that's not ideal either.
So I think also that people with no mortgage, people
who are in their houses out right, don't really care
where the house prices go up or down. It doesn't
make any difference to them. You know, most people, if
they understand that they haven't got financing on it, then
the price of the house is by good bye. And
(18:50):
if house price is full then that doesn't make any
difference to their net position. Affect it improves their position
if they're going one particular way. So it's it's entirely
by the buys to that make any difference except for,
as you say, in the context of their children. Yeah,
and it's also um, I mean, and again I think
it's both. Remember this is a this is a global
thing and it's happening everywhere. Um and I mean, which
(19:14):
is basically, don't in the fact that, again, this is
all a function of falling interest rates, and that is
where it fundamentally boils back down to interest rate spiked
in October. They are improving now, but whatever they're going
to say, it's going to be about twice as much
as they were a year ago, eighteen months ago. And
unless something insane happens, which would almost certainly involve unemployment
(19:37):
traveling from where we are now, then interest rates are
not going back to zero percent because that was a
one off, that was a five thousand year law and
I just don't see how we get back to there again.
M hm. Where do you think we're settle now? I
think they'll settle above four percent, possibly towards five percent,
and anythink about four percent intensively to price falls. So
(20:00):
that one so we've gotten all a lot of people
who are on fixes because remember a lot of the
UK people with mortgages are on fixes two or five years,
but the majority on two years, right, So there'll be
a lot of people rolling off soon who are going
to have a very unpleasant shock. Yeah, it's going to
get really tough for people this year. And I mean
this is one of the things that might drive the
price transparency is the number of people who suddenly realized
(20:22):
they can't afford to own their home anymore. I may
have to sell and trade down, which is something we
haven't really seen in years. We saw no forced selling
in two thou and no force selling. So I don't
think the bank is going to like intervene and tell them.
But I think a lot of people will just make
the decision and kind of go, look this, I can't
do this, particularly when there's so much general inflation as well,
(20:44):
you know, and so many people are being squeezed in
so many ways. They just may not have the money
to be able to afford a house. We expect a
reasonable man full barance from the banks, presumably. I think
that will always happen now. I think politically they just
the banks that are going to do that. It's they
will find ways to extend mortgage terms or find ways
(21:04):
to give mortgage holidays and so forth, and that's going
to be a trend to watch as well. So one
thing that we're having copedet is how to actually get
the best mortgage deal. So Neil well he any top
tips for for people that are looking to be mortgage
just now. I think the main piece of advice is
(21:25):
go as get ready as early as you can because
mortgage rights are so variable at the moment in all
the in all of that terms meanings that the way
you get today may not be the way you get
in a couple of months, and you can always go
back and change it. So get your documents prep ready ready,
(21:45):
and get them prep early, and then you can start
to look around, usually through a broker's handiest way people
turn to, but start to look around for the rate
that suits you. I think one thing people don't thinking
off about is whether in jet think a little bit
more equity can get them to an l TV where
they get a much lower rate. And so you do
(22:07):
take a little bit of a short term pain in
terms of that money going out of your account, of
your habit money in your account these days not all
of us do, uh, And then using that lower the
rate you're pay on an ongoing basis, and I know
many people have like saved an awful lot of money
just from going from a nine TV to a seventy
pcent the TV, or going from a sevent TV down
(22:30):
to a sixty percent TV UM. So you know that
that's something people really need to consider. So that's just
boosting your effectively your to poise it they make active
got in the house. Um. And I think the other
thing is because we'll recording this a most obviously it's
fab beuty and about five months ago mortgage really spaked
(22:50):
really badly and they have come down a lot since then.
So I think the other thing for people in member
is that if you're looking at the own currently based
by tables are kicking at ound. You can't get like
under fight under four percent for the five year effects
for example. I noticed and suggest whenever you go into
that conversation, just be a weird of what is there
(23:11):
and what is possible? Um. But yeah, I think nice
of it. Nearly in good Luck, the last time we
saw big waves of fourth selling was back in the
early nineties, wasn't it. That was the last time things
got really really unpleasant. People totally underwater and having to
sell and negative equity and make up the difference, etcetera.
And that was one of the reasons why that downturn
got so aggressive, as the banks for closing for its
(23:33):
properties onto the market, which then drop prices further down.
And I think their where that as well. They're going
to try and I don't think the essay mind a
short sharp fall, but I don't think they want a
proper crush. Crush well, the want reputational difficulties of turfing
people out. I think it's alwaso worth reminding people, you know,
(23:53):
crush gets us back to where we were in twenty
it's not it's not the end of the world. It's
hard for those people who got if act to buy that.
But if we go, you know, it's if you remember
in a lot of us were saying prices were overvalue,
then it's like when you well, how far do you
go before it's a real, real crash. And they did
look massively overvalued. I saw a report last week saying
(24:16):
on metrics Delane and then Southeast it's probably forty percent
over valued. We're not saying they've got a fall, but
that's about the metrics. Why would they not full forty
percent to the footy percenter a valued why would they
not fall fully epersent? Sure, a bit of forbearance, but
that aside, the prices normally revert to a mean they
you know, they go back to the correct valuation. So
everyone says it's a horrible of value, but they won't
(24:38):
fall that much, I think, I think outside London, it's
possible in certain regions. I think in London the farre
money starts to come in, particularly with the week pound,
and that's what makes the difference. So that helps your
micro find the floor and there will be Asian money
coming in to buy properties that look very cheap in
(24:58):
their local currency. It's exactly why happened last time as well,
where once you had a decline in London prices in
local currency, for them it was a fifty decline, so
it made sense start buying and they have obviously been
some of the more aggressive buyers in the last market.
Another thing that might help buil out the market is
a lot of private equity funds have been building out
(25:19):
homebuilders actually for the last few years, because the homebuilders
couldn't sell the properties they had built in. Private equity
firms and institutional landlords came in and brought up entire
blocks of both discounts of ten to twenty percent, And
so there comes a point where actually it makes sense
for them on a monetary basis to step in and
start buying things. So there's there's floors in London that
(25:40):
don't necessarily exist elsewhere. Okay, so London is weirdly safer
than elsewhere. But if you had to make a bet
on how full house prices would fall across the country,
where would you go? Would you be a minus ten
percent minus twenty minus thirty clearly not a minus would
be towards minus turkey nominal right next year, But I
(26:01):
think this one will last long longer, So minus thirty
plus a little inflation, so you actually are on minus
forty in real terms at least, yeah, potentially from the
from the peak. This is a scard man, god man,
I is bitish jones On, mind you, that's only real.
You're You're on minus twenty nominal minus. The logic for
(26:24):
is this, and I think it's important to think about this.
Inflation last year was about ten percent. Inflation this year
is expected to be seven percent, and then next year
depending on who you listen to it might be two,
so you're over probably in inflation terms at stage, and
house prices have, on top of it, already fallen four
percent and we're just at the beginning. So you know,
(26:47):
my God is ten saying this. I do think that
forty percent in real terms. I got a stress in
real terms is a possibility. Okay, well, I think we
can probably finish on that. Extremely positive note, house prices
in the UK are only going to fall by something
in the region of thirty fift in real terms. That's
absolutely marvelous. Thank you both, Neil John for your optimistic
(27:11):
and positive contributions to this podcast on the nation's favorite subject. Right.
Thanks for listening, everybody, Thank you for listening to this
week's Marion Talks Money. We will be back next week
in the meantime. If you like our show, and that
does not mean if this show made you depressed or
not depressed, that's not it. If you like the information,
rate review and subscribe wherever you listen to the podcast positively,
(27:31):
please Thank you to everyone who has done that already.
We have some great reviews and John of course goes
through those when needle pick me up from worrying about
the property market. Thankt. John. This episode was hosted by
Me Mary's ms at web. It was produced by Summer Sadi.
Additional editing by Blake Maples and special thanks of course
to Neil Callinan and to John's topic. Finally, let me
remind you once more designed up to John's daily newsletter
(27:54):
Money Distilled, which is excellent and occasionally drifts away from
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Welcome to Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people
who know the markets explain the markets. I'm Marin's Somerset work. Now.
This week we are focusing on the one thing I
know you all care about most housing and mortgages, and
for that topic, because it's so important, we are bringing
in one of Bloomberg's best on the subject, Neil Callanan,
who has written about the real estate and the mortgage
(00:30):
market for more than twenty years. That's several cycles worth now,
definitely now. And also you have a special treat this week,
something slightly different. Instead of keeping the wonderful John Steppic
just to five minutes at the top of the episode,
we are yielding to pressure from all of you and
letting him stick around for the whole thing. You can
let me know later whether you think that is a
(00:52):
good thing or not. Thanks John, I see that you
me and my mom sent and what then? Yeah? Do
you know what? You could ask her to stop sending
it to tenty times? Is enough? Mom? Right now, we
are going to start with some stories of misery because
they may becoming more may be coming and Neil Neil
tell Us explained to us just how bad things can
(01:14):
get when house prices start falling. So I'm Irish obviously
from the accent and in Aland we had the perfect
combination of a falling economy and rising interest rates in
the last crowd, which really compounded the property downturn. So
in my own case, my flat had been worked about
(01:34):
three seven five. It was a two bed in an
up great suburb of Dublin, and I actually felt that
was way too much, and I looked into renting. To
rent a similar property in the city center would cost
twice as much, and I figured, they will never fall
fifty percent. I think they're gonna fallow a bit, but
they'll never fall fifty And two years after that has
worked seventy two And really only about two years ago
(01:58):
that I got back to what it had been worked
when I bought us, not what it was worth. It
still worked, probably seventy five ground less than the peak.
And that's how bad properly prices can get when you
go into a downturn at the same time as when
interest rates are hiking. Because the interest rate hikes, me
fewer people are out there to actually buy it, and
I can accelerate the declines of so you eventually got
(02:21):
out of even some nominal terms, but you have lost
quite a lot of my in real terms. Absolutely, it
was quite frustrating having some money home every month for
an apartment that I could barely live and obviously because
I was living here, so that was difficult. So the key,
the key phrase of yours and I think we should
all keep in our minds, is it'll never fall. I mean,
(02:41):
I don't see probably prices in the UK falling fifty,
but I do think they will fall a lot, and
I think they will fall more than people expect. You know.
You you see this constant effort from people in the industry,
the vested interests to kind of portray rey single bit
of kind of okay news has signed the bottom is in,
(03:03):
the bottom is in, and of course it's quite the opposite.
We're actually just at the beginning of what's going to
be a very interesting journey to see what actually happens.
And the idea that nine months in the property prices
have um, you know, bottom up because right move asking
prices rose is you know, on one level hilarious because
if I did own a flat in London and let's
(03:24):
say it was worth five grand, and I don't own
the property here, but if I did, I could ask
for a million quid for it. I'm not going to
get it. But my asking price there's no resemblance in
many cases to my to the price of the property
as work, particularly because the state agents have been promising
people higher and higher prices in order to get the
instruction because there was so few properties on the market,
(03:46):
so the prices that many are being offered that are
completely unrealistic. And you know, I live in central London
and there was a purpose built flat complex near me
Um and one of the apartments they're sold for three
seven five. Recently I was looking because actually I wouldn't
mind living there. The next one that came on almost identical,
almost the same size, very little difference asking price four
(04:08):
seven five. Don't wear that one. I mean, you know,
but now what we're going to have to do is
you have this big, long pause until that seller actually
realizes my flawt is completely overvalid and if I actually
want to sell it, I'm going to have the cup.
But you're never going to see somebody really dred ground
in the first one. They're gonna cut twenty and then
twenty more, and then maybe five and then maybe put
(04:28):
it back up a bit just to make it look
like you've coult even less the next time. And you know,
these all these tactics go on. But this is the
problem with the market in the next while is you're
going to just see a standoff between buyers and sellers,
and transactions are going to plummet and it's going to
be hard to get market evidence. But eventually a few
months sellers will start to capitulate, and you're starting to
see some evidence of that. I think at the million
(04:50):
plus bracket, not at the very high end, but in
the million plus bracket, I think there is some capitulation happening.
And you're also seeing some capitulation in all those areas
that London people moved out to during the pandemic and
the sudden realization of actually, if I need to sell
my house or a flat to go back to London,
the only person who can buired is a local person
(05:11):
and they can't afford to pay anything near what I paid.
And you know, it's interesting to see that the fastest
pace of decliners in the southwest of England now, which
is Cornwell and Summer Center, and then obviously everybody's headed
off there in the pandemic and now they're going to
probably have a quite a bad crash. I would say, well,
this is entertaing. I mean, John and I were quite
a lot of one pick and everything. You said that.
(05:32):
But one of the things that John I've been saying
for a while now is that if you want to
see the house prices going to fall the fastest, go
look for a big cold house in the country, and
it went up the most during the pandemic, and they're
definitely going to come down the most now, you know,
because one winter living in Northumberland the countryside, and if
you're not from the country south of Northumberland, you're coming
back to London pretty quickly, pretty coularly, another hell of
a loss. No um. Taking on what you said, one
(05:55):
of the things that always happens, and god, we're all
all the trim or something will think quite a few
property because one of the things that always happens is
the standoff between buyers and sellers, the sort of transaction paralysis.
Well that that buyers go well I'm not paying that,
and the sellers go well I'm not selling for that.
So we're in that period right now. But if you
look at the RIX numbers which I want to talk about,
the latest numbers out on on the housing market, you
(06:17):
can see that a much higher number of sales are
going through a below asking price than there's normal, normal
being a market that's vaguely healthy, which is not this market.
So I can't remember the numbers. Sixty eight cent on
the on the latest numbers out today going for below
asking person a more normal number in it and a
normal market is about is about thirty. So now tells
us there's the beginnings of this happening. But John, what
(06:40):
else is in this rather miserable report from from RIX. Well,
it's just that thing we are so the next of
these basically the agent seem that the things going to
happen to the market. Um, the key thing here is
that they're telling the truth in the rest. So mostly
when you hear a state agents talking, they're lying. Now
we know that they're telling you what they think you
can get for you as to that you'll bring your
(07:01):
instruction into their mean we know it's not true and
they're telling you there were ten but a ten viewers
one in fact, they were non excepta So we know
what's normally going on with the state agents. But on
REX when it comes to this sever they're telling the truth,
telling anonymously what they really think, right, Yeah, and it's
surprisingly I could um in terms of if you if
you take like they usually print a chart in my
news later whenever the REX figures come out. It's basically
(07:23):
if you take their forecast for the next three months
and you advance them three months and you compare it
to us happening at whose prices it's actually really surprisingly
I could The only time they've been notably wrong which
during but that's because people proved wrong because the thank
England made a massive intervention and effect that the housing
marketing and terry st rates um and so that can
(07:44):
stopped the whole market from collapsing during covid um. But yeah,
so I suppose the other interesting thing about it is
that we have sort of been hearing like the half
Fax whose prices figure was oh yeah flat, prices were
flat in January and is Neal was seeing right move
trying to start the year we have a better, good
cheer and how spell does have been seeing that we're
(08:04):
seeing a bit of interest, a bit more than it
was at the botmob. But the recks of it to
the really just had none of that. The stagents would
even gloomier than in December sales a static there's fewer
buy it in Quiryes, that that's I thought that was
the most interesting chart of all. If you look at
the chart of of buyer inquiries over the last couple
(08:24):
of years, and you can see that in the first
half of the link is actually berserk going up as
everyone deferately wants to move sadly to these answers in
the Southwest. And now you look at it and you
can see it is blumping like a stone. Yeah, I mean,
and that makes sense. I mean, so we had a
massive mortgage shot in October and November, and there are
(08:45):
some people who at that point where have been kicked
off their transaction and they probably are still committed to
buy in because once you get that found the process
of like I really don't want to stick with ARM,
but that back dogs probably already clear. And now that
mortgage rates have come down a little bit um and
(09:06):
mortgages are now available again um and so you're probably
quite rapidly going into that phase where all the people
who still wanted to move and moved, all the people
who can wait, are now cittaing there's going well, I
don't really want to move now if prices might fall
by x percent shortly. We've also had that horrible mortgage shock,
but now rates are coming down stick and afford to
(09:26):
kind now wait, um, so yeah, so I think that.
I mean, it's that thing of just starting to see
that it's the only way. And I think the thing
is the buyers always think that times on their side,
but it's it's not because I mean, if the Bank
England cuts interest rates, it will be because the wider
economies deterior rating, and that means that actually much I
(09:50):
hate to say that your job might be at risk.
Whereas if I think it's crossed, we don't get a
big recession, then there's no reason for the banking interest rates.
And that means that's is ploy as good as it gets,
or as close to as good as it gets for
mortgage treats. You know you're not actually crossing your fingers.
Oh well, which is kind that right? Neil is waving
(10:12):
trying to interrupt. Neil, you don't understand how these podcasts work.
You just talk over John when you want. That's how
politeness out there. And I just think the January numbers
only need to be treated with a degree of skepticism.
As John said, we had the mortgage shop in September,
but also separate to that, people don't buy houses in
January and December, so you got a natural pickup in
January anyway, So you know it's again people are reaching
(10:35):
for that soft landing thing as quickly as they possibly
can to kind of provide evidence that actually it's okay
and kind of calm nervous, because well, people talk about
real estate like it's an acid a lot of the time.
Not now. It's actually the most emotional decision in a
way you can make outside the family, and emotions plays
a big part of it as the psychology. And so
(10:57):
if you're worried the price are going to go down,
you're not necessarily going to be rushing guds by a
house because you're like, oh my god, I could go
wrong and blah blah blah, and and that needs to
get work through the system and people some people have
phone comfort and interest rates where they are, but for
a lot of people that's just too high and they're
not going to be able to for prices as they're
currently being quoted at at least rather than necessarily setting up. Yeah,
(11:19):
I'd say one of the things that I always think
of as a massive warning sign is in centers from
the house builders. You know when when they really can't
sell and they don't want to cut the price of
a house because you know that looks bad, right, You
certainly don't want to do that. So what you do
is you try and cover up falling prices and falling
demand by offering people freebees. And we see this in
every single cycle. And you get the free kitchen fittings,
you get the free bathroom. You're either one getting a
(11:40):
bathroom in the first place, and then you build, but whatever,
so you get the free bathroom self of the bathroom upgrade.
And then then you get the carpets. And I think
once you get free carpets, you know all the danger
bells are ringing right um. And we always say to people,
if someone offers you a free carpet, you're paying too
much for the house, so you must definitely offer less
for the house. Don't take the carpets, offer less for
the house, because that's the way it should be. Them
graduated of the cycle, the incentives get bigger and bigger
(12:02):
and bigger. We'll pay your mortgage, will pay your stamp duty,
will pay this, will pay that, and then just around
the bottom and this is the thing we tell people
to look after comes the car. There comes a point
when one house building company will start offering you a
free card by the house, and I always think that's
a little bit of a of a buy signal. I
don't know, what do you think. I think if anybody
ever offers me incentives, I'll say no, I'll take the
(12:24):
discount please, particularly with mortgage race to where they are now,
and the idea in fact that you're paying for a
carpet at four or five percent is a big crazy tautage,
Thank you very much. But yeah, cars are a good
sign that we're near the bottom. I'm not suggesting you
should take the car. I'm suggesting that it means you
can get thirty ground off the president. Absolutely. Yeah. But
(12:46):
the other problem in the new belts always those are
the first ones in which mortgage lending trys, because obviously
tends to be if you're buying a new building is
normally the fustine buil, and it tends to go for that.
And also new builds are already over placed so because
they will lose value the same way as a new
card does. Um So, I mean it's never it's never
(13:09):
a good time for how spelled does because you know,
they've just finished building all these things at maximum cost
and then they're trying to flog them at a time
when the banks are most weary of landing on those
specific types of houses as well. Essentially, isn't I've always
wondered why, Maybe maybe you can answer this, why do
you not have to pay a higher deposit on a
new build than you do on a secondhand house, given
(13:32):
that the new build is definitely going to lose value
in the short term. Tend to look at these things.
That's passionately and it's it's based on your ability to
repay the mortgage rather than necessarily the property. As long
as they're happy with the value you walk into negative
ectly on day one are you Absolutely do? And I
think that one of the most interesting things that is
that we need to watch for the next two years.
(13:53):
It's helped to buy and you know that has completely
skewed the new home market. It's it's sent the amens
and new homes rocketing, So there should be room for
builders actually cut prices quite a lot now unless they
overpay for the land, which is quite likely. But also
those people who bought on Help to Buy are probably
(14:13):
in negative equity if they bought recently. But then when
it comes to refinance at the end have to pay
more in because the government guarantee is disappearing, so that
you're gonna have to all these people facing much higher
repayments in terms of mortgage payments, but also on the
value side in terms of the size of their mortgage,
but also on the property where they've lost lots of money.
(14:34):
And yeah, I think that's a trend that we're going
to really have to watch for the next two years.
A lot of people will have made bad decisions are
going to suffer badly from it. It's interesting we've written
a lot about help to Buy over the years, and
you know, we don't need a particularly good idea for
anybody except for the house builders. And you know the
huge profits that the house builders have made out of
life find particularly Um, I'm gonna stick with irritating for now,
(14:54):
but do you think that there's any good that have
come out of help to Buy? The one thing that
it has helped a lot of people who otherwise would
not have been able to afford to buy a house.
So if you look at the English Housing Survey, the
percentage of people needing money from family and friends in
order to buy a place that shrunk dramatically in the
last few years, and a large part of that is
obviously lower interest rates as well. But I do think
(15:16):
help to Buy has made some difference there. But it's
helped them buy a house that is now going to
destroy the well. It can de stritate finances, but only
destroy your finances if they actually come to sell, If
they can hold through a cycle, then they should probably
be okay. But on the issue of help to Buy,
I've been running an on growing graphic for probably five
(15:38):
six years now called help to Boom, which kind of
shows how every single time the housing market starts to
turn negative, the government comes in and intervenes and does
something to help buyers and support the market. And that's
going to be another thing to really watch, whether the
government is willing to annoy a lot of its natural
voters who have gotten used to their house price going
(16:00):
up by pounds a year, and doing some sort of
scheme to help booster What is there left? What is
their left. They've done everything. And what we've seen in
the last cycles that we've lived through, they've been very
small cycles that all us all of us seeing because
the government has stepped in really quickly with lower interest rates.
And one of the things that John and I writing
about it, you know, people go, well, house precedent was
(16:21):
gone back jud looks like a blip in the great
scheme of etcetera. But most of those occasions have seen
interest rates full dramatically and access sorts things out. But
that is definitely not going to happen this time. We
can't have more help to buy what what can they
do but in a sort of more tax relief for
something old trashion like that, I can't see them doing that.
I just think politically it's unpowerful for them to do
(16:43):
that now. But I would agree with you on that level,
because like back home, just before the massive crash, you know,
they cuts damp judy as the last kind of team
to keep the market going. And you know, the government
keeps on thinkering and stamp judy and cutting stamp judy
to keep the market going, and it tends it up
for a few months and then reality sets in. You know,
these measures do not help people buy houses. They help
(17:05):
people who own houses, and so they become more unaffordable.
And then you have another announcement designed apparently to help
home buyers, but actually they are in effect they help
the people who already own homes by sending the values
of their properties higher. I have skepticism that they can
do at this time. Well it's not that, I actually
think the political calculus has changed quite a lot. I mean,
the the average to the fostering buyel is like something
(17:28):
stupid like and mid thoughts. Now the main money they
have is myself that I don't know what only trying
with the list sense is. But something like thirty percent
or so people win their homes right, even no mortgage
at all. About thirty percent have a mortgage, and most
of those are people who are already better off than
the average. So you have this massive sort of like
(17:49):
voter pool of people who are incredibly piste off that
they can't buy a house. Um, and you know we
talked about they can, you know what they can. Servatives
has been a natural party of homeowners, but all of
the heartened, largely under new labor in the kind of
twenty play, have gotten Brown government and at that point,
by this is not a political point. My point is
(18:09):
more some at one point it was a massive vote
when not to keep house places going up as much
as possible. I don't actually think that's the case anymore.
I think even people who own houses, like people who
are all doesn't noise. I think a significant proportion them
I think, oh god, who are my kids going to
afford the house? And so okay, they've got lords of assets,
but they're realizing, well, I'm going to re funnel half
(18:30):
of these half of this, you know, my my pension
and all the rest that's going to expand go or
in buying my kids a house. So that's not ideal either.
So I think also that people with no mortgage, people
who are in their houses out right, don't really care
where the house prices go up or down. It doesn't
make any difference to them. You know, most people, if
they understand that they haven't got financing on it, then
the price of the house is by good bye. And
(18:50):
if house price is full then that doesn't make any
difference to their net position. Affect it improves their position
if they're going one particular way. So it's it's entirely
by the buys to that make any difference except for,
as you say, in the context of their children. Yeah,
and it's also um, I mean, and again I think
it's both. Remember this is a this is a global
thing and it's happening everywhere. Um and I mean, which
(19:14):
is basically, don't in the fact that, again, this is
all a function of falling interest rates, and that is
where it fundamentally boils back down to interest rate spiked
in October. They are improving now, but whatever they're going
to say, it's going to be about twice as much
as they were a year ago, eighteen months ago. And
unless something insane happens, which would almost certainly involve unemployment
(19:37):
traveling from where we are now, then interest rates are
not going back to zero percent because that was a
one off, that was a five thousand year law and
I just don't see how we get back to there again.
M hm. Where do you think we're settle now? I
think they'll settle above four percent, possibly towards five percent,
and anythink about four percent intensively to price falls. So
(20:00):
that one so we've gotten all a lot of people
who are on fixes because remember a lot of the
UK people with mortgages are on fixes two or five years,
but the majority on two years, right, So there'll be
a lot of people rolling off soon who are going
to have a very unpleasant shock. Yeah, it's going to
get really tough for people this year. And I mean
this is one of the things that might drive the
price transparency is the number of people who suddenly realized
(20:22):
they can't afford to own their home anymore. I may
have to sell and trade down, which is something we
haven't really seen in years. We saw no forced selling
in two thou and no force selling. So I don't
think the bank is going to like intervene and tell them.
But I think a lot of people will just make
the decision and kind of go, look this, I can't
do this, particularly when there's so much general inflation as well,
(20:44):
you know, and so many people are being squeezed in
so many ways. They just may not have the money
to be able to afford a house. We expect a
reasonable man full barance from the banks, presumably. I think
that will always happen now. I think politically they just
the banks that are going to do that. It's they
will find ways to extend mortgage terms or find ways
(21:04):
to give mortgage holidays and so forth, and that's going
to be a trend to watch as well. So one
thing that we're having copedet is how to actually get
the best mortgage deal. So Neil well he any top
tips for for people that are looking to be mortgage
just now. I think the main piece of advice is
(21:25):
go as get ready as early as you can because
mortgage rights are so variable at the moment in all
the in all of that terms meanings that the way
you get today may not be the way you get
in a couple of months, and you can always go
back and change it. So get your documents prep ready ready,
(21:45):
and get them prep early, and then you can start
to look around, usually through a broker's handiest way people
turn to, but start to look around for the rate
that suits you. I think one thing people don't thinking
off about is whether in jet think a little bit
more equity can get them to an l TV where
they get a much lower rate. And so you do
(22:07):
take a little bit of a short term pain in
terms of that money going out of your account, of
your habit money in your account these days not all
of us do, uh, And then using that lower the
rate you're pay on an ongoing basis, and I know
many people have like saved an awful lot of money
just from going from a nine TV to a seventy
pcent the TV, or going from a sevent TV down
(22:30):
to a sixty percent TV UM. So you know that
that's something people really need to consider. So that's just
boosting your effectively your to poise it they make active
got in the house. Um. And I think the other
thing is because we'll recording this a most obviously it's
fab beuty and about five months ago mortgage really spaked
(22:50):
really badly and they have come down a lot since then.
So I think the other thing for people in member
is that if you're looking at the own currently based
by tables are kicking at ound. You can't get like
under fight under four percent for the five year effects
for example. I noticed and suggest whenever you go into
that conversation, just be a weird of what is there
(23:11):
and what is possible? Um. But yeah, I think nice
of it. Nearly in good Luck, the last time we
saw big waves of fourth selling was back in the
early nineties, wasn't it. That was the last time things
got really really unpleasant. People totally underwater and having to
sell and negative equity and make up the difference, etcetera.
And that was one of the reasons why that downturn
got so aggressive, as the banks for closing for its
(23:33):
properties onto the market, which then drop prices further down.
And I think their where that as well. They're going
to try and I don't think the essay mind a
short sharp fall, but I don't think they want a
proper crush. Crush well, the want reputational difficulties of turfing
people out. I think it's alwaso worth reminding people, you know,
(23:53):
crush gets us back to where we were in twenty
it's not it's not the end of the world. It's
hard for those people who got if act to buy that.
But if we go, you know, it's if you remember
in a lot of us were saying prices were overvalue,
then it's like when you well, how far do you
go before it's a real, real crash. And they did
look massively overvalued. I saw a report last week saying
(24:16):
on metrics Delane and then Southeast it's probably forty percent
over valued. We're not saying they've got a fall, but
that's about the metrics. Why would they not full forty
percent to the footy percenter a valued why would they
not fall fully epersent? Sure, a bit of forbearance, but
that aside, the prices normally revert to a mean they
you know, they go back to the correct valuation. So
everyone says it's a horrible of value, but they won't
(24:38):
fall that much, I think, I think outside London, it's
possible in certain regions. I think in London the farre
money starts to come in, particularly with the week pound,
and that's what makes the difference. So that helps your
micro find the floor and there will be Asian money
coming in to buy properties that look very cheap in
(24:58):
their local currency. It's exactly why happened last time as well,
where once you had a decline in London prices in
local currency, for them it was a fifty decline, so
it made sense start buying and they have obviously been
some of the more aggressive buyers in the last market.
Another thing that might help buil out the market is
a lot of private equity funds have been building out
(25:19):
homebuilders actually for the last few years, because the homebuilders
couldn't sell the properties they had built in. Private equity
firms and institutional landlords came in and brought up entire
blocks of both discounts of ten to twenty percent, And
so there comes a point where actually it makes sense
for them on a monetary basis to step in and
start buying things. So there's there's floors in London that
(25:40):
don't necessarily exist elsewhere. Okay, so London is weirdly safer
than elsewhere. But if you had to make a bet
on how full house prices would fall across the country,
where would you go? Would you be a minus ten
percent minus twenty minus thirty clearly not a minus would
be towards minus turkey nominal right next year, But I
(26:01):
think this one will last long longer, So minus thirty
plus a little inflation, so you actually are on minus
forty in real terms at least, yeah, potentially from the
from the peak. This is a scard man, god man,
I is bitish jones On, mind you, that's only real.
You're You're on minus twenty nominal minus. The logic for
(26:24):
is this, and I think it's important to think about this.
Inflation last year was about ten percent. Inflation this year
is expected to be seven percent, and then next year
depending on who you listen to it might be two,
so you're over probably in inflation terms at stage, and
house prices have, on top of it, already fallen four
percent and we're just at the beginning. So you know,
(26:47):
my God is ten saying this. I do think that
forty percent in real terms. I got a stress in
real terms is a possibility. Okay, well, I think we
can probably finish on that. Extremely positive note, house prices
in the UK are only going to fall by something
in the region of thirty fift in real terms. That's
absolutely marvelous. Thank you both, Neil John for your optimistic
(27:11):
and positive contributions to this podcast on the nation's favorite subject. Right.
Thanks for listening, everybody, Thank you for listening to this
week's Marion Talks Money. We will be back next week
in the meantime. If you like our show, and that
does not mean if this show made you depressed or
not depressed, that's not it. If you like the information,
rate review and subscribe wherever you listen to the podcast positively,
(27:31):
please Thank you to everyone who has done that already.
We have some great reviews and John of course goes
through those when needle pick me up from worrying about
the property market. Thankt. John. This episode was hosted by
Me Mary's ms at web. It was produced by Summer Sadi.
Additional editing by Blake Maples and special thanks of course
to Neil Callinan and to John's topic. Finally, let me
remind you once more designed up to John's daily newsletter
(27:54):
Money Distilled, which is excellent and occasionally drifts away from
talking about property, doesn't It do accution very engagingly excellent
and you'll get quite a lot on on investing and
personal finance in general as well. The link is in
the show notes. You will not regret signing up. Thank you.
Host
Merryn Somerset Webb
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