October 24, 2025 • 12 mins
On this week’s market wrap, host and author of the Money Distilled newsletter, John Stepek is joined by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth to dissect the latest market moves. The pair discuss the pullback in gold and other precious metals, falling bond yields amid expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, and consider how the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, could shape the country’s markets and investor sentiment.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome to the Meryon Talks Money News round Up, where
we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this
week and what's driving them. I'm joined Stebic, senior editor
at Bloomberg and author of the multi award winning Money
This the newsletter, enjoining me as usual in Mern's absence
as friend of the show, Marcus Ashworth. Marcus is a
Bloomberg opinion columnist with a deep expertise. It says here
in European markets, but I would spend that to bond
(00:40):
markets and markets generally, and yes, as would be all
always a regular contributor, so yeah, no, nice to have
you back, Marcus.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
My pleasure that.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
It's siically been quite a hectic week this week already
and it's only Thursday morning.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well, we do have obviously shot moves in things that
you've been going anything, but app finally we realize that
they can actually also stop going up and even go
down a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
I SA this was interesting because just before when they
you're the Piso last week, basically seeing that they can
the debate.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
In the trade I think was the exact words.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, you said the abasement tree was basically made up? Story?
Is that reasonable?
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, I mean there's obviously there's some foundation. Like anything,
there's always some some semblance of truth in the fact
that governments do need to learn how to cut spending
or certainly reduce the increase in it. But to try
and extrapolate that across that the dollar is over and
that the only thing you can have is crypto and
indeed gold I thought was just a little bit too
much for me. This was a great trade, which is
(01:47):
everyone since seem to think it was a momentum trade
and would only ever continue going up. And we just
found that limit of you know, it's still doing extremely
well and that will continue to do very well, but
just need a bit of a health correction.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
So yeah, I bet, yeah, breather at least. Yeah, it
has been looking quite toppy.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Right above, you know. So it's gone up so far
so fast that it literally and there isn't any real reason,
I think, for it to be quite so sustainable. But
you know, there we go nice to see things like
silver and palladium and platinum and mine all the mining
stops finally catch up. But fine enough, that's when that happens.
You know that, but I certainly think gold has got
(02:27):
some validity. And the thing is people don't really sell gold,
that really want the whole gold. They keep on holding it.
Central banks and individuals alike. Having said that, there was
clearly some far too much leverage and reto momentum going
in it, and that just needed a bit of a
health check. So I'm probably healthier for it.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, And I'll be interesting to see how that continues,
because well, the other thing that I don't know what
I mean again, I'm sure you've noticed this, but maybe
in the last month or so, there's been a real
ton in the boind market. It's going to go on
from being, you know whatever, higher yields to a sort
of sense that maybe yields are high enough now that
(03:04):
attractive plate inflation is coming down.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
You look at ten year gilts, they're fifty basic points
off the highs. You look at two year gilts, they're
ninety basis points off. But this is driven principally by J.
Powell perhaps realizing that there is actually some reason to
lean on the employment side of his mandate and can
cut rates. I expect them on Wednesday to do two things,
One which is lower again by twenty five base points
(03:30):
and more importantly stop all forms of constituted tight This
is the Federals just to be a part of me
to make that clear, which and I think they will
do the same again and cutting in December. There's a
risk they might do fifty base points on these point.
But let's say they're cut by fifty base points by
the end of this year. That's going to put a
lot of pressure on Andrew Bailey and co. Who are
(03:51):
would be then fifty base points above the FED and
SEED not just doing constantive tightning, but active and passive.
So I think there will be some pressure on them
to do something about that. And that's really reflected now
and two or three bits of data, principally labor market
data is showing that pay expectations and pay pay levels
(04:13):
are off siteing to come down, and principally the private sector.
They don't think it's keeping up ironically public sector bonuses,
but let's not go into that for now. The point
is is that what they need to see and they
do want to see is private sector always levels down
to around three three and a half yea, which is
starting to happen and quite clearly so, and then we
had CPI which was really look at three point eight percent.
(04:36):
People I think, oh, what's a big fuss because it
was three percent the previous month. But the key thing
is we expect to go to four, possibly even higher,
and that was going to be probably a peak. The
fact that we've seen probably quite clear signs a little
bit brave here that we've seen the top of inflation
in the UK. That means in October we're going to
see a bunch of stuff coming off, particularly on energy prices.
(04:57):
That just the way the basis works, So we truly
get zero point two off next month anyway, that's just
the energy effect. It's quite possible in the budget of
November twenty sixth that rage Relie finally learns a lesson
that she needs to get out of the way of
the Bank of England and stop doing stuff which pushes
inflation up. Eg. Minimum wage rises, civil service pay arises,
(05:18):
and of course national insurance on employers, which has really
contributed to a lot of food inflation because it's the
cost of delivery of food, not the underlying commodity stuff
that's been driving it up. That's rippled throughout the economy.
But the point is that she can get. Perhaps one
of latest things maybe make mister millerband happy, is that
they reduce the the AT level on energy five percent
(05:39):
down a zero. It's a complete con and we're all
just being tricked by it, but it will lower inflation
quite noticeably, which means we should be down to below
three percent into the two and a halfs by the
early part of next year. Could mean the bank could
cut as early as decemah one bank is calling for
(05:59):
November bold but in order too now starting the call
for December, and I think certainly by February they like
doing on their quarterly things. I don't think they'll move
in November their quarterly meeting, but they will certainly tea
things possibly in December for a cut in February.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
I mean the tricky thing is, I mean, I think
that's a really good point for Rachel Reeves and she's
going to want to do what she can to avoid
the annual April bumping inflation, which is basically yeah. I
mean Simon for angel over at Pine has been making
this point for a while. The UK, well, the UK
standout the outlier status is basically all based on that
(06:34):
indexation moment in every April where the kind of places
go up and then that kind of represent for the
days that the year.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Really did this year, and that's that's going to take
a while of filter through. But we do pay the
banking and there's lots of them to work and see
through these things. So yes, that they know everyone says,
oh they can't, they can't cut because inflation is going
well in the US, they can And I think the
US leads, and I think banking will follow. I won't
want to leave too much for gaps, so I expect
(07:02):
and hope that some of the dats come through, which
is actually quite worrying on the economy on that side.
But certainly that inflation is probably we've seen the worst
of it.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, and maybe again, it'll be interesting to see what
Rachel Reevesen does because presumably that will also rule out
or rather focus on inflation, will rule out some of
the things that have been talked about, like equalizing VAT
up the way. She's not going to put VAT up
on anything because that would push prices higher.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Presumably Parrington's stare when you mentioned things like this, I
certainly hope not.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yes, you don't give any ideas. Okay, let's let's partner
that I mean, and the other big thing this week,
which I feel this always goes slightly under reported because
you know what I mean, Japan is the world's fatal
argest economy still and kind of like the one of
the most important developed markets. But it just got his
(07:55):
new prime minister, who is so seen as an ear
to chins well be yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I mean, I think that's slightly over said because she
doesn't have anything like the freedom that he did the
verse obviously twice he was Prime minister. But I mean,
and the three arrows of the ABE reform were never
really fired very well, certainly the last and in the
sense of whole overall reform of but there are definitely
in the Turkey stock exchange in particular, I've done some
(08:22):
really rather rather impressive things, and that I think is
it's still I mean, you know, I've long had Japanese
stocks that have lived there, and you know, injying Japanese
who's in convertible bonds for many years. I definitely, you know,
still believe and I think there is a lot of
reform to come through and that stock market will continue
probably to rise better than most, so I don't I
(08:43):
still believe in it. I just don't think necessarily we
should expect too much. This is Japan, after all, and
she's not going to be allowed to do too much.
But certainly she's going to talk talk, and that's at
least optimistic. And I think that the mank Japan will
probably raise it in straights at some point, but they're
not in a rush. Absolutely not the right because I
still don't think they feel rightly so that the whole
(09:03):
deflation real aspect of many decades has gone away from
Japan and it can quite easily reassert So in that
sense we will get slightly higher rates stadly going to
get high on you is probably over time, but this
is all normalization, ever so slowly taking ages, but it should,
I hope, continue to see some economic strength and indeed
have reflected in the stock market Japan.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Yea thought it's on in because obviously the neck and
the topics have both cartes. Be any thoughts from the
yen because obviously we're tom primali uki in vestas here,
so you're buying in poones. A lot of your kind
of gains are being kind of dented at least by
this week.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
You can't hand it obviously. But the point here is, yeah,
then it's a tricky what record. It could go either
way really quite very quickly, and everyone's aware of that.
At the moment. It's sort of held quite sort of
carefully versus the dollars. Certainly, I don't think sterning is
going to be desper well the next two or three
months because outline and well, yeah in straights and as
(10:05):
to the economy is it's starting to turn it a
little bit as well. But in the end terms, look
as far as I as I see, I think, you know,
the end could and should weaken. But you know, it
really does have one of those things. When it trends,
it trends very quickly, and the rest of the time
that they do try to keep it boxed in. And
I suspect the bank pan will be very careful to
do as much as they can, and then the Minister
(10:27):
find us as well to keep it that way.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Oh yeah, I suppose that one phase three is a
dollar that's quite I mean what I means, who much
week I can it comfortably get before they start to
what are you about it?
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Well, they're worried about all the time so it can
you know, certainly can get down through on six and
all that sort stuff. And I just don't know, It's
honest answer, I really don't know it can way and
anyone tells you they do.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Know.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Again, I think it's probably lots of bad things can happen,
so hege half, Yeah, well that's not bad way of
looking at actually exactly. I mean, I think you know,
there's certainly there's there's some some optimistly And one thing
I would note is that if you're thinking the US
dot market is both topping, indeed that domestic US moneys
will look at overseas, Japan is a very keen and
(11:11):
obvious place for company European bank stocks, a lot of
Japanese both tech and other sides that they're they're they're
hedge funds, are very own funds that are very familiar
with investing Japan over the years. It's a natural first
place for them to go. And I think you're already
seeing that a lot of money from me out of
the States, where would it go, It would go to Japan,
probably one of the top priorities.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Great, Thanks very much, Marcus, seeing your time. As always,
thank you for listening to this week's Medelm talks about
any debrief. If you like a show, rate review, and
subscribe whatever, you listen to podcasts and keep saying questions
of comments to Men and Money at Bloomberg dot net
and you can also follow me and Marcus or x
I'm joined Underscore STEPIC and Marcus is at Marcus Ashworth.
(11:54):
This episode was hosted by Me Joined STEPIC that was
produced by Moses and and Summer Sadi
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome to the Meryon Talks Money News round Up, where
we talk about the biggest moves in the markets this
week and what's driving them. I'm joined Stebic, senior editor
at Bloomberg and author of the multi award winning Money
This the newsletter, enjoining me as usual in Mern's absence
as friend of the show, Marcus Ashworth. Marcus is a
Bloomberg opinion columnist with a deep expertise. It says here
in European markets, but I would spend that to bond
(00:40):
markets and markets generally, and yes, as would be all
always a regular contributor, so yeah, no, nice to have
you back, Marcus.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
My pleasure that.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
It's siically been quite a hectic week this week already
and it's only Thursday morning.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Well, we do have obviously shot moves in things that
you've been going anything, but app finally we realize that
they can actually also stop going up and even go
down a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
I SA this was interesting because just before when they
you're the Piso last week, basically seeing that they can
the debate.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
In the trade I think was the exact words.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, you said the abasement tree was basically made up? Story?
Is that reasonable?
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, I mean there's obviously there's some foundation. Like anything,
there's always some some semblance of truth in the fact
that governments do need to learn how to cut spending
or certainly reduce the increase in it. But to try
and extrapolate that across that the dollar is over and
that the only thing you can have is crypto and
indeed gold I thought was just a little bit too
much for me. This was a great trade, which is
(01:47):
everyone since seem to think it was a momentum trade
and would only ever continue going up. And we just
found that limit of you know, it's still doing extremely
well and that will continue to do very well, but
just need a bit of a health correction.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
So yeah, I bet, yeah, breather at least. Yeah, it
has been looking quite toppy.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Right above, you know. So it's gone up so far
so fast that it literally and there isn't any real reason,
I think, for it to be quite so sustainable. But
you know, there we go nice to see things like
silver and palladium and platinum and mine all the mining
stops finally catch up. But fine enough, that's when that happens.
You know that, but I certainly think gold has got
(02:27):
some validity. And the thing is people don't really sell gold,
that really want the whole gold. They keep on holding it.
Central banks and individuals alike. Having said that, there was
clearly some far too much leverage and reto momentum going
in it, and that just needed a bit of a
health check. So I'm probably healthier for it.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, And I'll be interesting to see how that continues,
because well, the other thing that I don't know what
I mean again, I'm sure you've noticed this, but maybe
in the last month or so, there's been a real
ton in the boind market. It's going to go on
from being, you know whatever, higher yields to a sort
of sense that maybe yields are high enough now that
(03:04):
attractive plate inflation is coming down.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
You look at ten year gilts, they're fifty basic points
off the highs. You look at two year gilts, they're
ninety basis points off. But this is driven principally by J.
Powell perhaps realizing that there is actually some reason to
lean on the employment side of his mandate and can
cut rates. I expect them on Wednesday to do two things,
One which is lower again by twenty five base points
(03:30):
and more importantly stop all forms of constituted tight This
is the Federals just to be a part of me
to make that clear, which and I think they will
do the same again and cutting in December. There's a
risk they might do fifty base points on these point.
But let's say they're cut by fifty base points by
the end of this year. That's going to put a
lot of pressure on Andrew Bailey and co. Who are
(03:51):
would be then fifty base points above the FED and
SEED not just doing constantive tightning, but active and passive.
So I think there will be some pressure on them
to do something about that. And that's really reflected now
and two or three bits of data, principally labor market
data is showing that pay expectations and pay pay levels
(04:13):
are off siteing to come down, and principally the private sector.
They don't think it's keeping up ironically public sector bonuses,
but let's not go into that for now. The point
is is that what they need to see and they
do want to see is private sector always levels down
to around three three and a half yea, which is
starting to happen and quite clearly so, and then we
had CPI which was really look at three point eight percent.
(04:36):
People I think, oh, what's a big fuss because it
was three percent the previous month. But the key thing
is we expect to go to four, possibly even higher,
and that was going to be probably a peak. The
fact that we've seen probably quite clear signs a little
bit brave here that we've seen the top of inflation
in the UK. That means in October we're going to
see a bunch of stuff coming off, particularly on energy prices.
(04:57):
That just the way the basis works, So we truly
get zero point two off next month anyway, that's just
the energy effect. It's quite possible in the budget of
November twenty sixth that rage Relie finally learns a lesson
that she needs to get out of the way of
the Bank of England and stop doing stuff which pushes
inflation up. Eg. Minimum wage rises, civil service pay arises,
(05:18):
and of course national insurance on employers, which has really
contributed to a lot of food inflation because it's the
cost of delivery of food, not the underlying commodity stuff
that's been driving it up. That's rippled throughout the economy.
But the point is that she can get. Perhaps one
of latest things maybe make mister millerband happy, is that
they reduce the the AT level on energy five percent
(05:39):
down a zero. It's a complete con and we're all
just being tricked by it, but it will lower inflation
quite noticeably, which means we should be down to below
three percent into the two and a halfs by the
early part of next year. Could mean the bank could
cut as early as decemah one bank is calling for
(05:59):
November bold but in order too now starting the call
for December, and I think certainly by February they like
doing on their quarterly things. I don't think they'll move
in November their quarterly meeting, but they will certainly tea
things possibly in December for a cut in February.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
I mean the tricky thing is, I mean, I think
that's a really good point for Rachel Reeves and she's
going to want to do what she can to avoid
the annual April bumping inflation, which is basically yeah. I
mean Simon for angel over at Pine has been making
this point for a while. The UK, well, the UK
standout the outlier status is basically all based on that
(06:34):
indexation moment in every April where the kind of places
go up and then that kind of represent for the
days that the year.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Really did this year, and that's that's going to take
a while of filter through. But we do pay the
banking and there's lots of them to work and see
through these things. So yes, that they know everyone says,
oh they can't, they can't cut because inflation is going
well in the US, they can And I think the
US leads, and I think banking will follow. I won't
want to leave too much for gaps, so I expect
(07:02):
and hope that some of the dats come through, which
is actually quite worrying on the economy on that side.
But certainly that inflation is probably we've seen the worst
of it.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, and maybe again, it'll be interesting to see what
Rachel Reevesen does because presumably that will also rule out
or rather focus on inflation, will rule out some of
the things that have been talked about, like equalizing VAT
up the way. She's not going to put VAT up
on anything because that would push prices higher.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Presumably Parrington's stare when you mentioned things like this, I
certainly hope not.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yes, you don't give any ideas. Okay, let's let's partner
that I mean, and the other big thing this week,
which I feel this always goes slightly under reported because
you know what I mean, Japan is the world's fatal
argest economy still and kind of like the one of
the most important developed markets. But it just got his
(07:55):
new prime minister, who is so seen as an ear
to chins well be yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I mean, I think that's slightly over said because she
doesn't have anything like the freedom that he did the
verse obviously twice he was Prime minister. But I mean,
and the three arrows of the ABE reform were never
really fired very well, certainly the last and in the
sense of whole overall reform of but there are definitely
in the Turkey stock exchange in particular, I've done some
(08:22):
really rather rather impressive things, and that I think is
it's still I mean, you know, I've long had Japanese
stocks that have lived there, and you know, injying Japanese
who's in convertible bonds for many years. I definitely, you know,
still believe and I think there is a lot of
reform to come through and that stock market will continue
probably to rise better than most, so I don't I
(08:43):
still believe in it. I just don't think necessarily we
should expect too much. This is Japan, after all, and
she's not going to be allowed to do too much.
But certainly she's going to talk talk, and that's at
least optimistic. And I think that the mank Japan will
probably raise it in straights at some point, but they're
not in a rush. Absolutely not the right because I
still don't think they feel rightly so that the whole
(09:03):
deflation real aspect of many decades has gone away from
Japan and it can quite easily reassert So in that
sense we will get slightly higher rates stadly going to
get high on you is probably over time, but this
is all normalization, ever so slowly taking ages, but it should,
I hope, continue to see some economic strength and indeed
have reflected in the stock market Japan.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Yea thought it's on in because obviously the neck and
the topics have both cartes. Be any thoughts from the
yen because obviously we're tom primali uki in vestas here,
so you're buying in poones. A lot of your kind
of gains are being kind of dented at least by
this week.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
You can't hand it obviously. But the point here is, yeah,
then it's a tricky what record. It could go either
way really quite very quickly, and everyone's aware of that.
At the moment. It's sort of held quite sort of
carefully versus the dollars. Certainly, I don't think sterning is
going to be desper well the next two or three
months because outline and well, yeah in straights and as
(10:05):
to the economy is it's starting to turn it a
little bit as well. But in the end terms, look
as far as I as I see, I think, you know,
the end could and should weaken. But you know, it
really does have one of those things. When it trends,
it trends very quickly, and the rest of the time
that they do try to keep it boxed in. And
I suspect the bank pan will be very careful to
do as much as they can, and then the Minister
(10:27):
find us as well to keep it that way.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Oh yeah, I suppose that one phase three is a
dollar that's quite I mean what I means, who much
week I can it comfortably get before they start to
what are you about it?
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Well, they're worried about all the time so it can
you know, certainly can get down through on six and
all that sort stuff. And I just don't know, It's
honest answer, I really don't know it can way and
anyone tells you they do.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Know.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Again, I think it's probably lots of bad things can happen,
so hege half, Yeah, well that's not bad way of
looking at actually exactly. I mean, I think you know,
there's certainly there's there's some some optimistly And one thing
I would note is that if you're thinking the US
dot market is both topping, indeed that domestic US moneys
will look at overseas, Japan is a very keen and
(11:11):
obvious place for company European bank stocks, a lot of
Japanese both tech and other sides that they're they're they're
hedge funds, are very own funds that are very familiar
with investing Japan over the years. It's a natural first
place for them to go. And I think you're already
seeing that a lot of money from me out of
the States, where would it go, It would go to Japan,
probably one of the top priorities.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Great, Thanks very much, Marcus, seeing your time. As always,
thank you for listening to this week's Medelm talks about
any debrief. If you like a show, rate review, and
subscribe whatever, you listen to podcasts and keep saying questions
of comments to Men and Money at Bloomberg dot net
and you can also follow me and Marcus or x
I'm joined Underscore STEPIC and Marcus is at Marcus Ashworth.
(11:54):
This episode was hosted by Me Joined STEPIC that was
produced by Moses and and Summer Sadi
Host
Merryn Somerset Webb
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Ruthie's Table 4
For more than 30 years The River Cafe in London, has been the home-from-home of artists, architects, designers, actors, collectors, writers, activists, and politicians. Michael Caine, Glenn Close, JJ Abrams, Steve McQueen, Victoria and David Beckham, and Lily Allen, are just some of the people who love to call The River Cafe home. On River Cafe Table 4, Rogers sits down with her customers—who have become friends—to talk about food memories. Table 4 explores how food impacts every aspect of our lives. “Foods is politics, food is cultural, food is how you express love, food is about your heritage, it defines who you and who you want to be,” says Rogers. Each week, Rogers invites her guest to reminisce about family suppers and first dates, what they cook, how they eat when performing, the restaurants they choose, and what food they seek when they need comfort. And to punctuate each episode of Table 4, guests such as Ralph Fiennes, Emily Blunt, and Alfonso Cuarón, read their favourite recipe from one of the best-selling River Cafe cookbooks. Table 4 itself, is situated near The River Cafe’s open kitchen, close to the bright pink wood-fired oven and next to the glossy yellow pass, where Ruthie oversees the restaurant. You are invited to take a seat at this intimate table and join the conversation. For more information, recipes, and ingredients, go to https://shoptherivercafe.co.uk/ Web: https://rivercafe.co.uk/ Instagram: www.instagram.com/therivercafelondon/ Facebook: https://en-gb.facebook.com/therivercafelondon/ For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iheartradio app, apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.