November 6, 2025 • 46 mins
In this episode, John breaks down the economic realities behind the headlines — and what they mean for your wallet. While the U.S. remains the world’s strongest economy, warning signs are flashing: rising costs, slowing consumer confidence, cracks in real estate markets, and widening financial strain in working families — especially in Black America. John reveals the “canary in the coal mine” indicators most people are missing, explains why Wall Street and Main Street are telling two different stories, and highlights how artificial intelligence is reshaping the future faster than any previous economic shift. Most importantly, he gives you a practical game plan to not only survive potential downturns — but win in them. This episode is your blueprint for staying clear-eyed, confident, and prepared.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome the Money and Wealth with John O'Bryant, a production
of the Black Effect Podcast Network and iHeartRadio. Hey, Hey,
this is John O'Briant, and this is Money and Wealth
every week bringing to you a new topic, my mentoring online,
(00:23):
my Ministry of Finance, and I just took some I
lubrigant because after traveling my eyes were a little try
and I needed to make sure I was clear eyed,
because I'm looking at contracts and documents all the time,
and I need to make sure I'm always clear eyed
and clear hited when I'm making decisions, the same thing
(00:47):
I want for you. So sometimes you need more than
just your own natural intelligence. You need data. You need
somebody to tell you truth straight so that you can
be clear eyed and are headed. I don't want you
to believe in the hype. I want you believe in
what's right now. What's right is America is still the largest,
(01:09):
most robust, most amazing economy on the planet, thirty trillion
dollars give or take of GDP gross domestic product, a
big portion of the world economy, twenty twenty five percent
of the world economy. The flight to quality the place
where people who are talking mess about the United States
want to come here. I'm sorry, they want their assets here.
(01:33):
People in China talking mess about the US, but you'll
find that Chinese leaders see america economic system, our real estate,
our currency, our treasury bills, our bonds, our stock market,
our businesses. They see US as a flight to quality,
and they are investing here. Russia talks the mess about
the United States, but you'll find their leaders same thing.
(01:55):
Iran talks a mess about the United States. But you'll
find again all of these folks if you look behind
the drape brie and the and all the pageantry and
the drama of TV, you'll find if you're clear eyed
and you're looking at the data, we are the flight
to quality in the world. Somebody asked me about fiat
(02:17):
currency today when I was speaking at the Black Enterprise
Excel conference where they gave me the war and I'm
thankful for that, thank you. Butch Graves honored the Black
fellow hotteries were amazing, Robert Smith and doctor George Frazer,
all these great people. I was asked, you know fiat currency,
like is that a real currency? And like it was
not about the currency per se, I mean fiat currency
(02:39):
as relates to the United States. It's backed by the
full credit, full faith and credit of the United States
of America. It's not as absolutely as a gold standard,
but it's pretty dangonne strong. Because currency in and of
itself is nothing, but was it back by is something.
And being backed by the United States government is again
(03:02):
not perfect. We have our problems, but it is probably
the best deal around. So why am I concerned? Why
am I then suggesting that I'm going to tell you
today what the headlines won't tell you. Why am I
suggesting telling you there is a reason for us some
economic warning signs on the horizon, or to warn you
(03:23):
or to give you some advice around these economic warning
signs on the horizon, and that there is a canary
in the coal mine here, and it's Black America in particular,
But there's some other canary in the coal mines, which
I'll share with you, and how you might win anyway,
Because the world constantly changes and nothing goes up forever.
(03:45):
The US, as I've said before, has over the course
of our history, had three winners. Right, you had overall
GDP gross domestic product, a winner always gone up over
the course of history. Real estate values and stock market values.
(04:06):
Now they go up, and then there's a recession, they recede,
they drop down, they recede to receive. There's a recession,
they received, right, the values go down and at some
point they correct, and when they correct, the correct above
the line. That's been the history of the of of
what we call modern America, the American American economic miracles.
(04:26):
It's it's it's it's a miracle in the world right,
And I believe it's it's about because of her people.
I believe it's because of of the entrepreneurship and the
innovationists and from nothing spirit and the fact that everybody's
participating in this economy. And you have the poor and
the underserved like me who get a chance for the
big ring uh. And no matter what your race, your creed,
(04:48):
your color, where you came from, it's about where you're
going and ultimately you get a shot and go and
putting that ladder opportunity into the soil and climbing up
and going to the top. If you have what it
takes and you won't give up, as my friend Tony
Rusher would say, if you don't quit, you can't fail.
The part of the challenge right now, while I'm a
booster for America and I think we're going to work
(05:11):
this out, is there are some challenges to these basic premises,
and we're going to work through them to make sure
that we are because America is not a country, she's
an idea that we're still practicing the right economic ideas.
So one of the warning signs here concerns I have
(05:32):
and my book, my friend Andrew Ross Sorkin has a
new book out called eight nineteen twenty nine that everybody
should read. I'm reading it right now, my friend Andrew
Rossorkan from Squakbox. I've done Squakbox for probably a decade now,
so I think the leading business show in the world.
The market. The stock market was roaring, roaring right before
(05:54):
it crashed. It was roaring before it crashed in the
nineteen twenties. I'm not saying that that's happening now, that's
going to happen now, but it is roaring. The stock
market is roaring. And part of why is roaring, which
is different from nineteen twenty nine. There's a reason now
why this market is roaring. It is Artificial intelligence in
particular is a big bet and I think that this
(06:18):
big bet is actually proportionate to the seismic change that's
going to happen because of artificial intelligence. I think that
AI is akin to us going from the horse and
buggy in eighteen fifty to the automobile in nineteen ten.
That happened in sixty years. This will happen in six.
By the year twenty thirty, you won't recognize the world
as you see it. Everything's going to be different, everything's
(06:41):
going to change. And so there's a lot of money
going into Artificial intelligence is a huge bet. So technology
was a driver and so on and so forth before this,
but this is I think, sort of really supercharging the marketplace.
And there's a lot of aspirational energy out of hope,
if you want to call it, that baked into the market.
(07:03):
And the market has a lot of sentiment, sentiment baked
into it, a market way of saying emotions and I
and I and again I've said, whenever you make an
emotional decision, you probably made a bad one. And so
we don't know if it's going to be we don't
know when there's going to be a crash a quote
my friend Andrew rush Sorcer. We just know there will
(07:24):
be one, we don't know how big, but it will correct.
And the market I think is warm. It's it's not overheated,
but it's it's warm. I mean, uh there. And it
seems to be disconnected from the real economy. It's they
get into that. So the market economy, the real estate
that the stock market is doing is it is roaring,
(07:44):
just doing incredibly well. The real economy is much more
muted in its progress right now. A lot of people
are hurting. Folks are too much month at the end
of their money. And these two signals seem to be
missing each other. One seems to be there are three operating,
almost indifferent youss, and that's not a good sign. Too
(08:05):
much high, too much speculation in the market. Now, should
you go run around and grabbing your money out of
the stock market. Absolutely not, in my opinion. You have
if you're invested in fundamentals, not flaky stuff. This is
no time for flaky stuff. But you invest in fundamentals.
Those were always, in my opinion, to be good. I
also invest alongside really, really, really successful people. And there's
(08:30):
certain things I can say on this podcast, and certain
things as blunt as I am, I can't say. But
that's a very short list, by the way. But I
don't want to get into a debate with people about
what's really going on. But suffice to say, there's a
herd mentality also on Wall Street, right, And so if
(08:51):
you invest with the herd, certain herds, you tend to
have some protections. As you can read between the lines
and what I'm saying. The market can still crash, but
it's less likely if you do the things I just
mentioned to crash on you, at least not the way
that that's permanent. In my dip, and I ride those
(09:13):
dips because when they correct, they tim again, as I
said earlier, tend to correct above the line. This may
take a minute. It's not for the it's not for
the faith of heart. But this is no time for speculative, speculative,
flaky stuff. This is time for you again, the things
that you need every day, things everybody else need. Everything. Okay,
let me now get into the details of why I
(09:38):
and while I'm optimistic, while I have some concerns. So
if you want to understand the health of the American economy,
you don't ask Wall Street. You ask a single mother
in south central Los Angeles like my mother got wrestler
soul want you to smith the stock market. Yes, it's climbing,
(09:58):
but the streets are whisper something else. You just have
to know what to listen for. We're gonna pull back
to curtain a little bit on some early warning signs.
Signals at the economic ground may be shifting a bit.
More importantly, I'll show you how to protect yourself in
these times and even advance yourself in the midst of
(10:20):
the storm. So let me tell you about three warning
signs that I believe are flashing yellow. The first warning
sign flashing yellow on the economy, and these tend to
be early signals for economic slow downs is Las Vegas,
(10:40):
and I'm gonna go be in. I'll be in Las
Vegas within the week on business, so I'll be being
able to take a look for myself when i'm there.
But I've done enough research to tell you this with
certainty or with confidence, Sellers, the Las Vegas economy is
cooling off. Hotel occupancy down and fees are up, which
(11:03):
is one of the reasons why occupancy is down. It's
profit taking and it's a little bit of gouging going on.
In my opinion of some of the operators there, which
I think they're winning the battle and losing the war.
Air travel, hotel, occupancy, retail, food and beverage sales all dropping.
What did I tell you before about the economy? The
economy seventy percent consumer spending, seventy and ninety percent of
(11:27):
all GDP gross domestic products for the United States of
America is in msas metropolitan areas cities right and in
Las Vegas is a microcosm for consumer confidence in the
nation and more importantly, discretionary spending. When Vegas slows, it
(11:49):
reflects national spending fatigue. It also is an indication that
people don't have free cash flow extra money like they
once did. It also suggest a people may not have
the confidence that they once had because they're not coming
and just blowing money or profiling or flat being flashy
(12:11):
or rewarding themselves with a weekend or a week in
Las Vegas. They're the playground, you know, for the for adults.
Las Vegas number two flashing yellow signal the state that
I'm in right now. I'm on travel for business. Just
(12:33):
spoke at the Excel Men's Conference Men's Summit for a
Black Enterprise received an award from them, as I mentioned earlier,
so proud to be associated with that award. And doctor
George Frasier, Fred Smith, Robert Smith, friend of mine, leading
billionaire or philanthropis businessman in the country. They you know,
(12:53):
just so many heroes and she ros on the stage
together people I admire and respect. That was in Orlando.
I'm now in another part of Florida, which I'll report
on later. But you see, in Florida market is starting
to crack just a little bit. Inventories, home real estate inventory, listings,
(13:20):
inventory is rising. Listings of real estate, single family homes
in particular and condos all in particular are sitting longer.
Values are softening, I mean, values are getting people able
to ask for less for their home. They're even lowering
their listing price. In particular, Florida has now recorded since
(13:46):
twenty twelve, the highest number of homes listed at any
one time for the longest period, but just the first
thing listed at any one time. More than one hundred and
seventy thousand homes listed residents is listed for sale, with
things sitting around much longer, and supply and demand means,
(14:07):
the more supply sorry, the more supply the weaker the
demand the lower and the prices, the you know, the
softening of the market. This is particularly acute and overbuilt
our investor heavy regions of Florida. I'm not going to
start picking on regions that I want you investing or
not investing because I told you that an area is
(14:28):
softening or is strong or whatever. You can do your
own research, right, I just tell you just what I
just told you about Florida is generally true. And these
coastal these coastal dynamic areas that feed on aspiration. Las
Vegas and Florida are bell weathers right now. They've also
had Florida higher been dealing with higher mortgage rates. Here's
(14:52):
a big one, higher insurance premiums because they're dealing with
these storms and natural disasters, which is really ravaged the
balance sheets. And you have buildings literally collapse on coasts
in Florida, and there's some reports that some buildings are
actually starting to sink in Miami on their foundations. This
is not good news and makes insurance companies. I just
(15:15):
did a podcast on insurance. Go back and watch that
great guy that did that podcast with who told you
Truth to power? But insurance companies get nervous in these environments,
and premiums go up. Migration is slowing down. People of color,
people of minorities, whatever, may not feel all that welcome
right now, and so that's slowing down. And this is
(15:40):
equally unsustainable real estate prices. So you even have real
estate on the coasts, on the beach, prime real estate
that is price compressed, prices are actually being deep. Values
are going down in some of these beachfront coastal areas,
(16:01):
which I find stunning. And people are just like, I'm good.
I think I'll I think that's too much risk for me.
I'm gonna move inland right or move to the mountains,
or move to another coastal area. But historically Florida has
been a leading indicator for housing shifts. Now, I'm not
telling you to run away from Florida. I love Florida.
(16:23):
I'm considering buying something for the family in Florida myself.
I'm not concerned about areas near the water. We own
property on the water in Turks and Caicos. So but
I am. But but I am telling you there's a
time to be cautious, and there's a time to be
assertive and I'm gonna tell you about the assertiveness, but
(16:45):
at the moment, I want you to be cautious in
this area specifically, but also be cautious in how you
move period during this period. So punintended. Here's the strongest
(17:07):
yellow blinking light in my opinion, Black America. Black America
is we are the canary in the coal mine. This
has been something that economic economists have agreed on for
a very long time. Black America is a signals as
a post check on how on whether there's problems that
(17:29):
could be coming for the larger economy. Black America. Unemployment
right now is sitting at around seven point five percent
hellow compared to three point eight percent national average for unemployment,
So dang near double and the number doesn't seem to be
getting better right. Credit Card delinquencies are rising fastest Amongst
(17:54):
African Americans and gen Z households of all races. Uh
the credit card. I'm gonna do a whole piece just
on credit cards, by the way, so watch for that
the next week or two. Credit card debt is rivaling
student loan debt in the amount that is old in
this country is unbelievable, and people are starting to pay
(18:17):
late or not pay at all. That's not a good sign,
or back or have higher balances historically over Black America's
historically over represent represented in vulnerable job sectors with less
wealth cushion, customer service, fast food, things with a high
(18:37):
school education, things with less technology technological in the action,
I hope that we were going to change all that,
uh in some work that operation. Hope and others will
be launching at the hope to reform here soon, so
stay tuned for that. But what happens to Black American
households first often happens to the broader economy next. Or
(19:01):
put another way, when black folks have a headache, sorry,
when mainstream folks have a headache, black folks have pneumonia,
even though we're all sick. Three And this is not funny.
I'm saying this in all serious now, I'm really, I mean,
I don't like this net six that at all. About
three hundred thousand black women lost their jobs in government
and corporate America since the beginning of twenty twenty five.
(19:23):
I had to like go back and recheck that number
because I just found that absolutely stunning. I thought it
was okay, three thousand, thirty thousand, No, three hundred thousand.
That's a real number, and that's a real problem. Women
are you know, dang ar third of the US economy
in the US, by the way, but eight trillion dollars.
(19:44):
The economy does not break down all at once. It
breaks down at the bottom first, and that's where the
warning bells are ringing. At least the yellow light is flashing.
So what does this mean and what's com It may
mean that we're entering the late stage of an economic cycle.
(20:07):
It may mean that we're entering a maybe modest recession,
could be a segmented serious recession. In other words, segments
of the colomy. I think economy overall is strong, but
seventy percent of consumer of this economy is consumer's spending,
as I keep reminding everybody, And there's only so much
pressure you can put on the average family before they buckle, right,
(20:32):
and our leadership in this country does not, in my opinion,
respect enough the constant post check on the health of
the middle class and the working class as a leading
indicator for how we should be course correcting, I believe,
almost in real time, but certainly with some sense of
(20:53):
haste toward their condition. But that's not what this podcast
is about, about the things that we can control. So
you've got strong GDP right now, and S and P
numbers standard poors that are not telling the full story.
(21:13):
The stock market is not telling the full story. As
I said earlier, I think the stock market is disconnected
from the real economy in many ways. The FED is walking,
Federal Reserve is walking a delicate tight rope. They're in
charge of interest rates and trying to mitigate an overheated
or stalling economy. And so they're walking this tightwrope between inflation,
(21:38):
managing inflation versus stability. And if they think that inflation's
out of control, they raise interest rates to damp and
demand to to to stop it from overheating. They might
lower interest rates if they think the economy is starting
to sputter into stall, to get economic energy going, because
(21:58):
they do realize that the economy is genmed up and
generated by large amounts of consumer spending in consumer health.
A soft landing here is not guaranteed. So don't be petrified,
but be slightly paranoid. Slight paranoid is a good thing.
You still be optimistic. You can be an optimist. You
(22:22):
can be a realistic optimist, which is what I believe
I am. The bottom third of economy is already feeling
real economic strain. That's my client at Operation Hope. So
we evaluate them, we talk to them on a regular basis,
and my reports are that folks are experiencing some economic strain.
They got too much month at the end of their money.
(22:43):
It's probably you listening to this podcast, watching this video.
Can I get an a man right? Are you saying yes, sir?
Right now? And you see clips of this on social media,
hit me with some comments, let me know your opinion
how you're doing. So you don't have to panic, but
you do have to a plan, right, You don't have
to panic, but you do need to plan how to
(23:05):
win in a down market. You don't build wealth in
the boom. You don't build wealth in a boom time, right,
unless you are a billionaire and you can throw tons
of money at to ride an existing wave. But most
of us, ninety nine to nine percent of everybody, that's
(23:25):
not the way you flow. And by the way, that
last way is so you can win big or you
can lose big. Even if you're a billionaire, a multi billionaire,
you don't build wealth in a boom, you build in
the bust if you're ready. So, as Warren Buffett once said,
when people are greedy, be afraid. When people are afraid,
be greedy. Business is not personal if capitalism is a
(23:47):
glad of your sports. So I want you to and
I'm to say some things now, I don't want you
taking this personal or I want you to feel like
I'm being insensitive. You know, if somebody's going to lose
their house, god bless them, but that is not your
doing and I didn't do it, and it's not nothing
to do with us, as it has to do with
their particular situation. But it's might as going to lose
their house or they need to sell their business or whatever.
(24:08):
You know, they may lose something. And the question is
can you benefit? Can you have a rainbow in the
midst of that storm? Okay? So one, I want you
to get liquid and stay nimble. This is Number one.
Save cash while others spend it. Build a three to
six month emergency fund. Start with five hundred to one
(24:29):
thousand dollars. Right, there's over half of this country don't
have four hundred dollars for an unplanned event. So saving
five hundred to one thousand dollars is a good good start.
You're head of most people three to six months of
an urgency fund. Keep credit cards paid down to improve
your credit score and your financial flexibility. So a credit
(24:51):
card is the thing that impacts positively and negatively. Your
credit score is the most. It also can do the
most damage to you if it gets out of control.
Now here's a positive. You can keep the balance low,
balance the balance relative to the limit. It also improves
your credit score and and it is your personal line
of credit in case things get tight, our things are
(25:13):
not right in your household or in the economy. That
becomes some more reserves you can pull from in tight
times to manage through. On a reserve budget, you'll create
again to manage through challenging times. So I want you
to manage those credit cards and your credit score like
a chant number two. Fix your credit now. Recession equals
(25:36):
tighter credit limits and assessment. I remember there was a
downturn and I had a line of credit that was,
you know, let's just pick a number. It was, you know,
five hundred thousand dollars and I owe, you know, three
hundred and twenty thousand dollars against it. I thought, oh,
(25:58):
that's great. You know I've got you know, still X number,
you know, a couple hundred thousand dollars of limit in
case I need it. It was an economic tightening and downturn,
and the bank got nervous across the board and they
just one day, you know, they lowered the limit to
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars all of a sudden,
(26:20):
a five hundred thousand credit limit, which with a lot
of flexibility. This is a long time ago, but the
story still applies. Now I'm basically up at the limit.
I basically owe what I basically have a limit for
what I owe, and now it doesn't look so good.
I had to pay that balance down. So if you
if we enter recession, it's going to be a tighter
(26:42):
credit criteria. Don't take it personal. But if you fix
your credit and you look a bank will lend you
money when you approve you don't need it all right,
or you look like you don't need it, or both.
So I want you to really work with that credit score,
and operation I hope can help you do it. We're
raising credit scord is fifty four points in six months
on average, lowering debt thirty eight one hundred dollars, increasing
savings twelve hundred dollars for somebody making forty eight thousand
(27:04):
dollars a year on average. Right, that can change your life.
We're the only nonprofit allowed to operating is out of
a bank branch in US history. We're in all most
all the major banks, and our jobs get the bank
out of the no business. So are you declined for
credit back into the s business? Because we know what
the bank criteria is to get you an approval, So
(27:27):
work with my team. Download the Hope and hand app
on your Android or Apple phone. Sign up for our services.
I prefer you to do do digitally online so I
can track to make sure that my people are being
responsive to you. But you can also call them on
our one eight hundred number. I think it's eight eight
eight three eight eight Hope. I believe this our one
(27:47):
one hundred number, but you are total free number. But
you can check it on with the internet search and operates,
hoope dot or work. Of course, you can go there,
find a location in forty two states forty two states
near you and go see them now if you go
see them physically, or you call them on the phone.
I can't track my team can't track whether somebody's paying
returning your phone call. But you go download that Hope
(28:09):
and Hand app. We can track very accurately whether you've
been responded to. Most of white people are very, very responsive,
but they're also human. So I want to make sure
that you are getting the service you deserve. And because
we raise the money from our partners, we're able to
scholarship you into those entry level services, so it doesn't
(28:31):
cost you money. It's an investment of your time. We
give you a scholarship to pay for the service. Initially.
The point is it's period. But if you have a
partnership with us, if your employer who has a partner
with as well, as you get more services, basically a
deeper bucket of services. But you'll never get a bill
(28:53):
from Operation Hope. So fix your credit. We can help
you with that. Seven under credit score means access to
better rates when others can't borrow hello prime rates and
access to credit other people can borrow or will be
very expensive. Use operationals Free coaching Hope inside. As I
mentioned earlier, I told you how to do it. Number three,
(29:15):
buy low, don't chase high in downturns, assets go on sale,
real estate, stocks, businesses, fire sales. I mean some of
the numbers I remember in the in the two thousand
and eight economic crisis. I mean just giving stuff away.
If you were liquid and had good and or had
(29:37):
good credit, My god, you could get bargains. You also
have to You also have to have confidence the world's
not coming to an end, right, And and so you
buy and you you hold until things level out and
turn around and downturns assets go on sale. Watch Florida
real estate. If value is correct, it could become a
(29:59):
buying opportunity for you. That's why I mentioned earlier. I'm
gonna tell you that to buy them, suggesting when you
might want to buy. Learn before you leap. Don't sit
out the whole game. Don't let the perfect become the
death of the good. Right, don't sit there in naval
games and have the paralysis of analysis. I want you
(30:19):
to learn for you leap, but don't set out the
whole game and wait the world. What the world pass
you by? You're never gonna have a risk free opportunity.
It's not the way the world works. Number four upskill
in to height demand rolls, artificial intelligence. This is about
earning a living in these environments. Healthcare right, the trades
(30:40):
that you can't AI, plumbing, you can't AI, electrical work,
You're gonna need those trades forever, financial services. Right. In recessions,
the job market reshuffles, So I want you shuffling up,
not shuffling down or out. Take advantage of free or
low cost training such as Google certifications, Coursera. Soon, Hope AI. Yes,
(31:06):
I said that Hope AI is coming. Watch for that
announcement at the Hope Global Form. Hope AI Open AI
Believe has some certifications to their academy Number five. Start
something small. Downturns a prime time for starting a low
cost business consulting, delivery, tutoring, content creation, digital services. I
(31:34):
mentioned in a recent podcast I did on AI businesses
that you can start little to nothing, do it wherever
you are, local to you, and dominate the market. Watch
that episode I did on optimizing AI in a practical
way in your time right now, your jobs are not
(31:54):
going to be taken by AI. Your jobs are gonna
be taken by somebody who can use AI. If you've
got a talent or a skill, You've got a product
side hustles today could be main income tomorrow, or as
I'd like to say, let your nine to five job
finance your five to nine drink. So sometimes opportunity hides
(32:27):
in plain sight. If you're paying attention. This isn't just
a warning, it's a window. Right, And rainbows only follow storms.
You cannot have a rainbow without a storm first. It's
a scientific fact. So here's some real opportunities in today's market.
I want you to buy undervalued real estate, but carefully again,
(32:52):
I don't go buying mansions and many mansions and all
this fancy stuff. Be very thoughtful of you. By a condominium,
something that has shared with somebody else. Make sure it's
not an overbuilt area, in other words, everybody. Sometimes where
these developers go nuts that everybody starts building these condominiums
and overbuilding an area because again it's overheated economy, and
(33:13):
they end up with just too much inventory. And now
you've got a wall shared with other people, and you're
probably's not distinguished with a guy a girl next to you.
So by undervalue, we'll say I love areas that are
like the worst house on the best block hood adjacent. Yes,
I said that hood adjacent. If you're in Atlanta, you
(33:36):
know Atlanta, like midtown Atlanta. South of the airport, I
think is an example of a gold mine. You know,
south central LA. If you know Los Angeles, let me
see you know west of the one ten Freeway all
the way over to the four or five freeway. You
(33:57):
want to get that far Losyenega south like that South
LA area, right, that's in South LA. Even East LA.
I think are these are gold mines. Property there will
continue to grow up there in your transportation, jobs, industry, businesses, entertainment.
(34:19):
They have, you know, great infrastructure. You know, inner city
in France is called Paris, remember that please. So these
are typically undervalued areas of real estate that are essentially
located and people older people, maybe people with biases don't
want to be there because minorities live there. But young
(34:40):
white educated people, young girls and guys from college, they're like, oh,
these are cool neighborhoods. And they grew up with people
with divers people in sports, and they went to school.
If you went to USC, you know it's at university
like that in the USC, and all you grew up
around people are it doesn't bother you And they love.
(35:02):
They can buy this, buy a piece of real estate
their first home at a reasonable at an affordable rate.
And that's how gingrification happens. By the way, gentrification is
nothing to do with race. Gentrification literally is defined as
a movement of middle class value to people with educations
and the incomes and are starting businesses. They move into
areas and they start buying up the real estate. But
(35:22):
in order for the to buy, somebody's got to sell it.
So that's a whole nother podcast or another time. Don't
get mad with somebody because they saw opportunity and decided
to decide to move on it. You have the same opportunity,
and I'm encouraging you to do that right now. Homes
that an eight inner Probabilding and my mom and dad
owned and on Martintha King Boulevard now used to be
(35:44):
Santa Barbara in South la they bought for eighteen thousand dollars.
It's now worth about eight million dollars. No one picked
the building up and moved it. Right, So I want
you to be smart about buying undervalue, say and negotiate
better deals. Maybe in good times it didn't matter as much,
(36:07):
but now you can negotiate better deals because people are
don't have the in well, in good times, you can't
negotiate better deals because the vendors or whatever have nine
million clients and they are like go buzz off. But
in down markets you can negotiate better deals with vendors, releases,
even credit terms, because now it's a it's a buyer's market,
(36:30):
it's a you know, you've you've got good credit, you've
got a good income, you've got a good profile. Everybody
wants your business, so gain supply and demand and negotiating.
I told you, I've said before. Capitalism is a table.
You have a consumer on one side and this example
and a capitalist on the other right. And the capitalist's job,
that's their job, is to get as much as they
(36:51):
can out of the consumer and his example while giving
them the least value. That's their job. Don't get mad
at them, that's their job. The consumer's job in this
example is to to get as much value out of
the capitalists while paying the lease for the product. That's
the consumer's job, right, and they're not trying to everybody off.
That's their job. That dynamic tension going back and forth
(37:14):
between the two and this example, consumer capitalists. Our consumer
producer is a negotiation, and a good negotiations where everybody
leaves the table slightly annoyed because nobody got everything that
they wanted out of that negotiation. Invest in yourself. I mean,
education and discipline be luck and over education just book
(37:38):
smarts every time. Education and discipline beat luck every time.
And and and wisdom and common sense and integrity and
a strong intuition and a trained guts feeling beats out
books smart, pure booksmarts every time. I run circles around
people who are much more book smart than me because
(38:00):
I've got a practical knowledge that they can't compete with.
Join communities, focus on building together. Operation Hope will be
opening clubs around the country very soon, in early in
twenty twenty six. Join one of the clubs. Create a
club for your own a local co oper, Create a
seven under credit score community club. You go to Operation
healp dot orgon make a Hope commitment to teach financial
(38:22):
literacy in your local community. Teach it in your school
or your your mosque, or your boys and girls club
or your church. Teach it in your local K through
twelve school or your college. Start a club, Start to
start a club in your fraternity or your sorority. Start
at seven, a credit score club, a one million black
business club, a business club, a home ownership club, an
(38:45):
equity club, a stock trading club, investment club. But build
communities where you're feeding off of off of unif of
similar positive energy. Get the toxicity out of your life.
As I've said before, if you hang around nine broken people,
you'll be the ten. Wealth is not about money, it's
(39:06):
about mindset and moves. Make the right moves now and
you look like a genius later. Sustenance every other poverty
excepts sustenance poverty, which means a roof over your head,
food to the table, to reasonable healthcare, all other forms
of poverty. Your mindset, right. That's why I've said before,
(39:27):
if you give a homeless guy a million dollars and
don't do anything else, all you do is give is
a homeless person a million dollars, he's likely to be
broken six months. That hurts people's feelings when I say it,
but it's just absolutely the truth. Because nothing changes in
your brain that's gonna change your heart, your soul, your
way you make decisions, you're gonna be broke because money, money,
and in himself is nothing but an exchange of value.
(39:48):
I can take all the wealthy people in the world
and all their money and give it to everybody in
this socialist dream, every poor person, struggling person in the world.
And the reality is, in three years, that's all that happens.
We'll have the money all back again, because nothing changed
in your mindset, right, And people just think that having
that dollar, having that bag, having that cash, having that
(40:09):
money is everything. Is No, it's not. That's why you
have an NFL. Seventy percent of all those in professional
sports NFL, NBA are bankrupp in five years after retirement,
and sixteen seventy percent of those people are also divorced
because money in and of itself is not enough. You
need that mindset. So the world is shifting. You can
(40:31):
be a victim of it or a visionary in it.
You can be a victim or a victor. Which one
do you want. Whether you believe you can or whether
you believe you can't, You're absolutely right. I can't guarantee
you that being positive is going to make you a success,
but I absolutely guarantee you that being negative is going
to make you fail. And whether you again as I
(40:51):
said early, whether you believe you can or you can't.
You believe you can't, you're right, and I want you
to when you're being run out of town, get in
front of the crowd and make like a parade over
a round it, through it. I want you to get
to it. Rainbow's after storms. You can not have a
rainbow that went out a storm. First. I want you
to see opportunity everywhere, but I want you to see it.
I want you to see the world around you with
clear eyes and based on facts. Again, I love my
(41:15):
Melody Hobson quote for my friend Melody Hobson. I like math.
It doesn't have an opinion. I want you to have
an opportunistic mindset. Guy went to Africa and cable back
after a couple of days. He was showed. He went
there on behalf of a shoe company. Cable back after
a couple of days. Send me home, please immediately. This
(41:36):
is ridiculous. Nobody here wears shoes. They then found his
brother who replaced him, and that brother took the job
and he flew over to Africa and immediately got lost.
Like I mean me, no one could find him. He
was you know, two three months he's not reporting out,
he's just missing an action. All of a sudden, he
pops up and he says, I've been traveling the country,
(42:00):
been an amazing place. I've just immerse myself in the
culture and fall in love with Africa. By the way,
send me all the shoes you've got that you can spare,
Send me everything you got. It's amazing. No one here
wears shoes. Did you get that? Somebody saw the glass
has half empty? Someone saw the glasses half full. It's
(42:22):
the same dang on glass. It just depends how you
see it. And life is what you see, right, So
I want you to see opportunity. You don't need to
get rich. You don't need to be rich to get
started when I'm talking about here. You just need to
be ready. So visit operation jump dot org for free
financial tools and coaching. Subscribe, tell your friends and subscribe
(42:47):
to this podcast and start having and create a little
club you meet once a week or once or twice
a month and discuss what's being discussed on this podcast.
Break each session segment down on each of these sessions,
these weekly segments and talk about what I'm talking about.
This is my weekly mentoring session. People he asking me,
(43:07):
will you mentor me job? This is it, This is
how I mentor so start having it. So build a club, right,
build a Brant club or Operation Club or John Smith
Club or Joe Blow or Suzanne club. Name it after
you name me a grandparent. I don't care seven the
credit score club, a business club, as I've said earlier.
But make a hope commitment online at operation dot org.
(43:32):
Design it yourself and organize your thoughts and start meeting
on something productive. And build a community of people who
care about the same things you care about. Because eagles
don't fly and packs. You've never seen a flack of eagles,
But you can create a network of eagles of people
who think like you. Again, if you hang around mind
broke people, you're going to be the tenth. The opposite
(43:53):
is also true. Success breeds more success and failure does
the same. Tell your friends to and your family member
to subscribe to this podcast. It's top fifty four entrepreneurship
in the country on Apple. Thank you for that. Let's
keep it rising in the ranks, and let's start a
movement of Silvi rights, from civil rights to Silvi rights,
(44:14):
from the streets to the suites don't bet against yourself,
bet on your hustle, bet on your discipline, bet on
your hope. This is hope with a business plan, and
I believe in you. This is John O'Brien. This is
money and wealth and this has been a segment on
(44:35):
how to manage in tough, potentially down times. Don't get mad,
get even, and success is the best revenge. I'm out.
(45:02):
Money and Wealth with John O'Brien is a production of
the Black Effect Podcast Network. For more podcasts from the
Black Effect Podcast Network, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome the Money and Wealth with John O'Bryant, a production
of the Black Effect Podcast Network and iHeartRadio. Hey, Hey,
this is John O'Briant, and this is Money and Wealth
every week bringing to you a new topic, my mentoring online,
(00:23):
my Ministry of Finance, and I just took some I
lubrigant because after traveling my eyes were a little try
and I needed to make sure I was clear eyed,
because I'm looking at contracts and documents all the time,
and I need to make sure I'm always clear eyed
and clear hited when I'm making decisions, the same thing
(00:47):
I want for you. So sometimes you need more than
just your own natural intelligence. You need data. You need
somebody to tell you truth straight so that you can
be clear eyed and are headed. I don't want you
to believe in the hype. I want you believe in
what's right now. What's right is America is still the largest,
(01:09):
most robust, most amazing economy on the planet, thirty trillion
dollars give or take of GDP gross domestic product, a
big portion of the world economy, twenty twenty five percent
of the world economy. The flight to quality the place
where people who are talking mess about the United States
want to come here. I'm sorry, they want their assets here.
(01:33):
People in China talking mess about the US, but you'll
find that Chinese leaders see america economic system, our real estate,
our currency, our treasury bills, our bonds, our stock market,
our businesses. They see US as a flight to quality,
and they are investing here. Russia talks the mess about
the United States, but you'll find their leaders same thing.
(01:55):
Iran talks a mess about the United States. But you'll
find again all of these folks if you look behind
the drape brie and the and all the pageantry and
the drama of TV, you'll find if you're clear eyed
and you're looking at the data, we are the flight
to quality in the world. Somebody asked me about fiat
(02:17):
currency today when I was speaking at the Black Enterprise
Excel conference where they gave me the war and I'm
thankful for that, thank you. Butch Graves honored the Black
fellow hotteries were amazing, Robert Smith and doctor George Frazer,
all these great people. I was asked, you know fiat currency,
like is that a real currency? And like it was
not about the currency per se, I mean fiat currency
(02:39):
as relates to the United States. It's backed by the
full credit, full faith and credit of the United States
of America. It's not as absolutely as a gold standard,
but it's pretty dangonne strong. Because currency in and of
itself is nothing, but was it back by is something.
And being backed by the United States government is again
(03:02):
not perfect. We have our problems, but it is probably
the best deal around. So why am I concerned? Why
am I then suggesting that I'm going to tell you
today what the headlines won't tell you. Why am I
suggesting telling you there is a reason for us some
economic warning signs on the horizon, or to warn you
(03:23):
or to give you some advice around these economic warning
signs on the horizon, and that there is a canary
in the coal mine here, and it's Black America in particular,
But there's some other canary in the coal mines, which
I'll share with you, and how you might win anyway,
Because the world constantly changes and nothing goes up forever.
(03:45):
The US, as I've said before, has over the course
of our history, had three winners. Right, you had overall
GDP gross domestic product, a winner always gone up over
the course of history. Real estate values and stock market values.
(04:06):
Now they go up, and then there's a recession, they recede,
they drop down, they recede to receive. There's a recession,
they received, right, the values go down and at some
point they correct, and when they correct, the correct above
the line. That's been the history of the of of
what we call modern America, the American American economic miracles.
(04:26):
It's it's it's it's a miracle in the world right,
And I believe it's it's about because of her people.
I believe it's because of of the entrepreneurship and the
innovationists and from nothing spirit and the fact that everybody's
participating in this economy. And you have the poor and
the underserved like me who get a chance for the
big ring uh. And no matter what your race, your creed,
(04:48):
your color, where you came from, it's about where you're
going and ultimately you get a shot and go and
putting that ladder opportunity into the soil and climbing up
and going to the top. If you have what it
takes and you won't give up, as my friend Tony
Rusher would say, if you don't quit, you can't fail.
The part of the challenge right now, while I'm a
booster for America and I think we're going to work
(05:11):
this out, is there are some challenges to these basic premises,
and we're going to work through them to make sure
that we are because America is not a country, she's
an idea that we're still practicing the right economic ideas.
So one of the warning signs here concerns I have
(05:32):
and my book, my friend Andrew Ross Sorkin has a
new book out called eight nineteen twenty nine that everybody
should read. I'm reading it right now, my friend Andrew
Rossorkan from Squakbox. I've done Squakbox for probably a decade now,
so I think the leading business show in the world.
The market. The stock market was roaring, roaring right before
(05:54):
it crashed. It was roaring before it crashed in the
nineteen twenties. I'm not saying that that's happening now, that's
going to happen now, but it is roaring. The stock
market is roaring. And part of why is roaring, which
is different from nineteen twenty nine. There's a reason now
why this market is roaring. It is Artificial intelligence in
particular is a big bet and I think that this
(06:18):
big bet is actually proportionate to the seismic change that's
going to happen because of artificial intelligence. I think that
AI is akin to us going from the horse and
buggy in eighteen fifty to the automobile in nineteen ten.
That happened in sixty years. This will happen in six.
By the year twenty thirty, you won't recognize the world
as you see it. Everything's going to be different, everything's
(06:41):
going to change. And so there's a lot of money
going into Artificial intelligence is a huge bet. So technology
was a driver and so on and so forth before this,
but this is I think, sort of really supercharging the marketplace.
And there's a lot of aspirational energy out of hope,
if you want to call it, that baked into the market.
(07:03):
And the market has a lot of sentiment, sentiment baked
into it, a market way of saying emotions and I
and I and again I've said, whenever you make an
emotional decision, you probably made a bad one. And so
we don't know if it's going to be we don't
know when there's going to be a crash a quote
my friend Andrew rush Sorcer. We just know there will
(07:24):
be one, we don't know how big, but it will correct.
And the market I think is warm. It's it's not overheated,
but it's it's warm. I mean, uh there. And it
seems to be disconnected from the real economy. It's they
get into that. So the market economy, the real estate
that the stock market is doing is it is roaring,
(07:44):
just doing incredibly well. The real economy is much more
muted in its progress right now. A lot of people
are hurting. Folks are too much month at the end
of their money. And these two signals seem to be
missing each other. One seems to be there are three operating,
almost indifferent youss, and that's not a good sign. Too
(08:05):
much high, too much speculation in the market. Now, should
you go run around and grabbing your money out of
the stock market. Absolutely not, in my opinion. You have
if you're invested in fundamentals, not flaky stuff. This is
no time for flaky stuff. But you invest in fundamentals.
Those were always, in my opinion, to be good. I
also invest alongside really, really, really successful people. And there's
(08:30):
certain things I can say on this podcast, and certain
things as blunt as I am, I can't say. But
that's a very short list, by the way. But I
don't want to get into a debate with people about
what's really going on. But suffice to say, there's a
herd mentality also on Wall Street, right, And so if
(08:51):
you invest with the herd, certain herds, you tend to
have some protections. As you can read between the lines
and what I'm saying. The market can still crash, but
it's less likely if you do the things I just
mentioned to crash on you, at least not the way
that that's permanent. In my dip, and I ride those
(09:13):
dips because when they correct, they tim again, as I
said earlier, tend to correct above the line. This may
take a minute. It's not for the it's not for
the faith of heart. But this is no time for speculative, speculative,
flaky stuff. This is time for you again, the things
that you need every day, things everybody else need. Everything. Okay,
let me now get into the details of why I
(09:38):
and while I'm optimistic, while I have some concerns. So
if you want to understand the health of the American economy,
you don't ask Wall Street. You ask a single mother
in south central Los Angeles like my mother got wrestler
soul want you to smith the stock market. Yes, it's climbing,
(09:58):
but the streets are whisper something else. You just have
to know what to listen for. We're gonna pull back
to curtain a little bit on some early warning signs.
Signals at the economic ground may be shifting a bit.
More importantly, I'll show you how to protect yourself in
these times and even advance yourself in the midst of
(10:20):
the storm. So let me tell you about three warning
signs that I believe are flashing yellow. The first warning
sign flashing yellow on the economy, and these tend to
be early signals for economic slow downs is Las Vegas,
(10:40):
and I'm gonna go be in. I'll be in Las
Vegas within the week on business, so I'll be being
able to take a look for myself when i'm there.
But I've done enough research to tell you this with
certainty or with confidence, Sellers, the Las Vegas economy is
cooling off. Hotel occupancy down and fees are up, which
(11:03):
is one of the reasons why occupancy is down. It's
profit taking and it's a little bit of gouging going on.
In my opinion of some of the operators there, which
I think they're winning the battle and losing the war.
Air travel, hotel, occupancy, retail, food and beverage sales all dropping.
What did I tell you before about the economy? The
economy seventy percent consumer spending, seventy and ninety percent of
(11:27):
all GDP gross domestic products for the United States of
America is in msas metropolitan areas cities right and in
Las Vegas is a microcosm for consumer confidence in the
nation and more importantly, discretionary spending. When Vegas slows, it
(11:49):
reflects national spending fatigue. It also is an indication that
people don't have free cash flow extra money like they
once did. It also suggest a people may not have
the confidence that they once had because they're not coming
and just blowing money or profiling or flat being flashy
(12:11):
or rewarding themselves with a weekend or a week in
Las Vegas. They're the playground, you know, for the for adults.
Las Vegas number two flashing yellow signal the state that
I'm in right now. I'm on travel for business. Just
(12:33):
spoke at the Excel Men's Conference Men's Summit for a
Black Enterprise received an award from them, as I mentioned earlier,
so proud to be associated with that award. And doctor
George Frasier, Fred Smith, Robert Smith, friend of mine, leading
billionaire or philanthropis businessman in the country. They you know,
(12:53):
just so many heroes and she ros on the stage
together people I admire and respect. That was in Orlando.
I'm now in another part of Florida, which I'll report
on later. But you see, in Florida market is starting
to crack just a little bit. Inventories, home real estate inventory, listings,
(13:20):
inventory is rising. Listings of real estate, single family homes
in particular and condos all in particular are sitting longer.
Values are softening, I mean, values are getting people able
to ask for less for their home. They're even lowering
their listing price. In particular, Florida has now recorded since
(13:46):
twenty twelve, the highest number of homes listed at any
one time for the longest period, but just the first
thing listed at any one time. More than one hundred and
seventy thousand homes listed residents is listed for sale, with
things sitting around much longer, and supply and demand means,
(14:07):
the more supply sorry, the more supply the weaker the
demand the lower and the prices, the you know, the
softening of the market. This is particularly acute and overbuilt
our investor heavy regions of Florida. I'm not going to
start picking on regions that I want you investing or
not investing because I told you that an area is
(14:28):
softening or is strong or whatever. You can do your
own research, right, I just tell you just what I
just told you about Florida is generally true. And these
coastal these coastal dynamic areas that feed on aspiration. Las
Vegas and Florida are bell weathers right now. They've also
had Florida higher been dealing with higher mortgage rates. Here's
(14:52):
a big one, higher insurance premiums because they're dealing with
these storms and natural disasters, which is really ravaged the
balance sheets. And you have buildings literally collapse on coasts
in Florida, and there's some reports that some buildings are
actually starting to sink in Miami on their foundations. This
is not good news and makes insurance companies. I just
(15:15):
did a podcast on insurance. Go back and watch that
great guy that did that podcast with who told you
Truth to power? But insurance companies get nervous in these environments,
and premiums go up. Migration is slowing down. People of color,
people of minorities, whatever, may not feel all that welcome
right now, and so that's slowing down. And this is
(15:40):
equally unsustainable real estate prices. So you even have real
estate on the coasts, on the beach, prime real estate
that is price compressed, prices are actually being deep. Values
are going down in some of these beachfront coastal areas,
(16:01):
which I find stunning. And people are just like, I'm good.
I think I'll I think that's too much risk for me.
I'm gonna move inland right or move to the mountains,
or move to another coastal area. But historically Florida has
been a leading indicator for housing shifts. Now, I'm not
telling you to run away from Florida. I love Florida.
(16:23):
I'm considering buying something for the family in Florida myself.
I'm not concerned about areas near the water. We own
property on the water in Turks and Caicos. So but
I am. But but I am telling you there's a
time to be cautious, and there's a time to be
assertive and I'm gonna tell you about the assertiveness, but
(16:45):
at the moment, I want you to be cautious in
this area specifically, but also be cautious in how you
move period during this period. So punintended. Here's the strongest
(17:07):
yellow blinking light in my opinion, Black America. Black America
is we are the canary in the coal mine. This
has been something that economic economists have agreed on for
a very long time. Black America is a signals as
a post check on how on whether there's problems that
(17:29):
could be coming for the larger economy. Black America. Unemployment
right now is sitting at around seven point five percent
hellow compared to three point eight percent national average for unemployment,
So dang near double and the number doesn't seem to be
getting better right. Credit Card delinquencies are rising fastest Amongst
(17:54):
African Americans and gen Z households of all races. Uh
the credit card. I'm gonna do a whole piece just
on credit cards, by the way, so watch for that
the next week or two. Credit card debt is rivaling
student loan debt in the amount that is old in
this country is unbelievable, and people are starting to pay
(18:17):
late or not pay at all. That's not a good sign,
or back or have higher balances historically over Black America's
historically over represent represented in vulnerable job sectors with less
wealth cushion, customer service, fast food, things with a high
(18:37):
school education, things with less technology technological in the action,
I hope that we were going to change all that,
uh in some work that operation. Hope and others will
be launching at the hope to reform here soon, so
stay tuned for that. But what happens to Black American
households first often happens to the broader economy next. Or
(19:01):
put another way, when black folks have a headache, sorry,
when mainstream folks have a headache, black folks have pneumonia,
even though we're all sick. Three And this is not funny.
I'm saying this in all serious now, I'm really, I mean,
I don't like this net six that at all. About
three hundred thousand black women lost their jobs in government
and corporate America since the beginning of twenty twenty five.
(19:23):
I had to like go back and recheck that number
because I just found that absolutely stunning. I thought it
was okay, three thousand, thirty thousand, No, three hundred thousand.
That's a real number, and that's a real problem. Women
are you know, dang ar third of the US economy
in the US, by the way, but eight trillion dollars.
(19:44):
The economy does not break down all at once. It
breaks down at the bottom first, and that's where the
warning bells are ringing. At least the yellow light is flashing.
So what does this mean and what's com It may
mean that we're entering the late stage of an economic cycle.
(20:07):
It may mean that we're entering a maybe modest recession,
could be a segmented serious recession. In other words, segments
of the colomy. I think economy overall is strong, but
seventy percent of consumer of this economy is consumer's spending,
as I keep reminding everybody, And there's only so much
pressure you can put on the average family before they buckle, right,
(20:32):
and our leadership in this country does not, in my opinion,
respect enough the constant post check on the health of
the middle class and the working class as a leading
indicator for how we should be course correcting, I believe,
almost in real time, but certainly with some sense of
(20:53):
haste toward their condition. But that's not what this podcast
is about, about the things that we can control. So
you've got strong GDP right now, and S and P
numbers standard poors that are not telling the full story.
(21:13):
The stock market is not telling the full story. As
I said earlier, I think the stock market is disconnected
from the real economy in many ways. The FED is walking,
Federal Reserve is walking a delicate tight rope. They're in
charge of interest rates and trying to mitigate an overheated
or stalling economy. And so they're walking this tightwrope between inflation,
(21:38):
managing inflation versus stability. And if they think that inflation's
out of control, they raise interest rates to damp and
demand to to to stop it from overheating. They might
lower interest rates if they think the economy is starting
to sputter into stall, to get economic energy going, because
(21:58):
they do realize that the economy is genmed up and
generated by large amounts of consumer spending in consumer health.
A soft landing here is not guaranteed. So don't be petrified,
but be slightly paranoid. Slight paranoid is a good thing.
You still be optimistic. You can be an optimist. You
(22:22):
can be a realistic optimist, which is what I believe
I am. The bottom third of economy is already feeling
real economic strain. That's my client at Operation Hope. So
we evaluate them, we talk to them on a regular basis,
and my reports are that folks are experiencing some economic strain.
They got too much month at the end of their money.
(22:43):
It's probably you listening to this podcast, watching this video.
Can I get an a man right? Are you saying yes, sir?
Right now? And you see clips of this on social media,
hit me with some comments, let me know your opinion
how you're doing. So you don't have to panic, but
you do have to a plan, right, You don't have
to panic, but you do need to plan how to
(23:05):
win in a down market. You don't build wealth in
the boom. You don't build wealth in a boom time, right,
unless you are a billionaire and you can throw tons
of money at to ride an existing wave. But most
of us, ninety nine to nine percent of everybody, that's
(23:25):
not the way you flow. And by the way, that
last way is so you can win big or you
can lose big. Even if you're a billionaire, a multi billionaire,
you don't build wealth in a boom, you build in
the bust if you're ready. So, as Warren Buffett once said,
when people are greedy, be afraid. When people are afraid,
be greedy. Business is not personal if capitalism is a
(23:47):
glad of your sports. So I want you to and
I'm to say some things now, I don't want you
taking this personal or I want you to feel like
I'm being insensitive. You know, if somebody's going to lose
their house, god bless them, but that is not your
doing and I didn't do it, and it's not nothing
to do with us, as it has to do with
their particular situation. But it's might as going to lose
their house or they need to sell their business or whatever.
(24:08):
You know, they may lose something. And the question is
can you benefit? Can you have a rainbow in the
midst of that storm? Okay? So one, I want you
to get liquid and stay nimble. This is Number one.
Save cash while others spend it. Build a three to
six month emergency fund. Start with five hundred to one
(24:29):
thousand dollars. Right, there's over half of this country don't
have four hundred dollars for an unplanned event. So saving
five hundred to one thousand dollars is a good good start.
You're head of most people three to six months of
an urgency fund. Keep credit cards paid down to improve
your credit score and your financial flexibility. So a credit
(24:51):
card is the thing that impacts positively and negatively. Your
credit score is the most. It also can do the
most damage to you if it gets out of control.
Now here's a positive. You can keep the balance low,
balance the balance relative to the limit. It also improves
your credit score and and it is your personal line
of credit in case things get tight, our things are
(25:13):
not right in your household or in the economy. That
becomes some more reserves you can pull from in tight
times to manage through. On a reserve budget, you'll create
again to manage through challenging times. So I want you
to manage those credit cards and your credit score like
a chant number two. Fix your credit now. Recession equals
(25:36):
tighter credit limits and assessment. I remember there was a
downturn and I had a line of credit that was,
you know, let's just pick a number. It was, you know,
five hundred thousand dollars and I owe, you know, three
hundred and twenty thousand dollars against it. I thought, oh,
(25:58):
that's great. You know I've got you know, still X number,
you know, a couple hundred thousand dollars of limit in
case I need it. It was an economic tightening and downturn,
and the bank got nervous across the board and they
just one day, you know, they lowered the limit to
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars all of a sudden,
(26:20):
a five hundred thousand credit limit, which with a lot
of flexibility. This is a long time ago, but the
story still applies. Now I'm basically up at the limit.
I basically owe what I basically have a limit for
what I owe, and now it doesn't look so good.
I had to pay that balance down. So if you
if we enter recession, it's going to be a tighter
(26:42):
credit criteria. Don't take it personal. But if you fix
your credit and you look a bank will lend you
money when you approve you don't need it all right,
or you look like you don't need it, or both.
So I want you to really work with that credit score,
and operation I hope can help you do it. We're
raising credit scord is fifty four points in six months
on average, lowering debt thirty eight one hundred dollars, increasing
savings twelve hundred dollars for somebody making forty eight thousand
(27:04):
dollars a year on average. Right, that can change your life.
We're the only nonprofit allowed to operating is out of
a bank branch in US history. We're in all most
all the major banks, and our jobs get the bank
out of the no business. So are you declined for
credit back into the s business? Because we know what
the bank criteria is to get you an approval, So
(27:27):
work with my team. Download the Hope and hand app
on your Android or Apple phone. Sign up for our services.
I prefer you to do do digitally online so I
can track to make sure that my people are being
responsive to you. But you can also call them on
our one eight hundred number. I think it's eight eight
eight three eight eight Hope. I believe this our one
(27:47):
one hundred number, but you are total free number. But
you can check it on with the internet search and operates,
hoope dot or work. Of course, you can go there,
find a location in forty two states forty two states
near you and go see them now if you go
see them physically, or you call them on the phone.
I can't track my team can't track whether somebody's paying
returning your phone call. But you go download that Hope
(28:09):
and Hand app. We can track very accurately whether you've
been responded to. Most of white people are very, very responsive,
but they're also human. So I want to make sure
that you are getting the service you deserve. And because
we raise the money from our partners, we're able to
scholarship you into those entry level services, so it doesn't
(28:31):
cost you money. It's an investment of your time. We
give you a scholarship to pay for the service. Initially.
The point is it's period. But if you have a
partnership with us, if your employer who has a partner
with as well, as you get more services, basically a
deeper bucket of services. But you'll never get a bill
(28:53):
from Operation Hope. So fix your credit. We can help
you with that. Seven under credit score means access to
better rates when others can't borrow hello prime rates and
access to credit other people can borrow or will be
very expensive. Use operationals Free coaching Hope inside. As I
mentioned earlier, I told you how to do it. Number three,
(29:15):
buy low, don't chase high in downturns, assets go on sale,
real estate, stocks, businesses, fire sales. I mean some of
the numbers I remember in the in the two thousand
and eight economic crisis. I mean just giving stuff away.
If you were liquid and had good and or had
(29:37):
good credit, My god, you could get bargains. You also
have to You also have to have confidence the world's
not coming to an end, right, And and so you
buy and you you hold until things level out and
turn around and downturns assets go on sale. Watch Florida
real estate. If value is correct, it could become a
(29:59):
buying opportunity for you. That's why I mentioned earlier. I'm
gonna tell you that to buy them, suggesting when you
might want to buy. Learn before you leap. Don't sit
out the whole game. Don't let the perfect become the
death of the good. Right, don't sit there in naval
games and have the paralysis of analysis. I want you
(30:19):
to learn for you leap, but don't set out the
whole game and wait the world. What the world pass
you by? You're never gonna have a risk free opportunity.
It's not the way the world works. Number four upskill
in to height demand rolls, artificial intelligence. This is about
earning a living in these environments. Healthcare right, the trades
(30:40):
that you can't AI, plumbing, you can't AI, electrical work,
You're gonna need those trades forever, financial services. Right. In recessions,
the job market reshuffles, So I want you shuffling up,
not shuffling down or out. Take advantage of free or
low cost training such as Google certifications, Coursera. Soon, Hope AI. Yes,
(31:06):
I said that Hope AI is coming. Watch for that
announcement at the Hope Global Form. Hope AI Open AI
Believe has some certifications to their academy Number five. Start
something small. Downturns a prime time for starting a low
cost business consulting, delivery, tutoring, content creation, digital services. I
(31:34):
mentioned in a recent podcast I did on AI businesses
that you can start little to nothing, do it wherever
you are, local to you, and dominate the market. Watch
that episode I did on optimizing AI in a practical
way in your time right now, your jobs are not
(31:54):
going to be taken by AI. Your jobs are gonna
be taken by somebody who can use AI. If you've
got a talent or a skill, You've got a product
side hustles today could be main income tomorrow, or as
I'd like to say, let your nine to five job
finance your five to nine drink. So sometimes opportunity hides
(32:27):
in plain sight. If you're paying attention. This isn't just
a warning, it's a window. Right, And rainbows only follow storms.
You cannot have a rainbow without a storm first. It's
a scientific fact. So here's some real opportunities in today's market.
I want you to buy undervalued real estate, but carefully again,
(32:52):
I don't go buying mansions and many mansions and all
this fancy stuff. Be very thoughtful of you. By a condominium,
something that has shared with somebody else. Make sure it's
not an overbuilt area, in other words, everybody. Sometimes where
these developers go nuts that everybody starts building these condominiums
and overbuilding an area because again it's overheated economy, and
(33:13):
they end up with just too much inventory. And now
you've got a wall shared with other people, and you're
probably's not distinguished with a guy a girl next to you.
So by undervalue, we'll say I love areas that are
like the worst house on the best block hood adjacent. Yes,
I said that hood adjacent. If you're in Atlanta, you
(33:36):
know Atlanta, like midtown Atlanta. South of the airport, I
think is an example of a gold mine. You know,
south central LA. If you know Los Angeles, let me
see you know west of the one ten Freeway all
the way over to the four or five freeway. You
(33:57):
want to get that far Losyenega south like that South
LA area, right, that's in South LA. Even East LA.
I think are these are gold mines. Property there will
continue to grow up there in your transportation, jobs, industry, businesses, entertainment.
(34:19):
They have, you know, great infrastructure. You know, inner city
in France is called Paris, remember that please. So these
are typically undervalued areas of real estate that are essentially
located and people older people, maybe people with biases don't
want to be there because minorities live there. But young
(34:40):
white educated people, young girls and guys from college, they're like, oh,
these are cool neighborhoods. And they grew up with people
with divers people in sports, and they went to school.
If you went to USC, you know it's at university
like that in the USC, and all you grew up
around people are it doesn't bother you And they love.
(35:02):
They can buy this, buy a piece of real estate
their first home at a reasonable at an affordable rate.
And that's how gingrification happens. By the way, gentrification is
nothing to do with race. Gentrification literally is defined as
a movement of middle class value to people with educations
and the incomes and are starting businesses. They move into
areas and they start buying up the real estate. But
(35:22):
in order for the to buy, somebody's got to sell it.
So that's a whole nother podcast or another time. Don't
get mad with somebody because they saw opportunity and decided
to decide to move on it. You have the same opportunity,
and I'm encouraging you to do that right now. Homes
that an eight inner Probabilding and my mom and dad
owned and on Martintha King Boulevard now used to be
(35:44):
Santa Barbara in South la they bought for eighteen thousand dollars.
It's now worth about eight million dollars. No one picked
the building up and moved it. Right, So I want
you to be smart about buying undervalue, say and negotiate
better deals. Maybe in good times it didn't matter as much,
(36:07):
but now you can negotiate better deals because people are
don't have the in well, in good times, you can't
negotiate better deals because the vendors or whatever have nine
million clients and they are like go buzz off. But
in down markets you can negotiate better deals with vendors, releases,
even credit terms, because now it's a it's a buyer's market,
(36:30):
it's a you know, you've you've got good credit, you've
got a good income, you've got a good profile. Everybody
wants your business, so gain supply and demand and negotiating.
I told you, I've said before. Capitalism is a table.
You have a consumer on one side and this example
and a capitalist on the other right. And the capitalist's job,
that's their job, is to get as much as they
(36:51):
can out of the consumer and his example while giving
them the least value. That's their job. Don't get mad
at them, that's their job. The consumer's job in this
example is to to get as much value out of
the capitalists while paying the lease for the product. That's
the consumer's job, right, and they're not trying to everybody off.
That's their job. That dynamic tension going back and forth
(37:14):
between the two and this example, consumer capitalists. Our consumer
producer is a negotiation, and a good negotiations where everybody
leaves the table slightly annoyed because nobody got everything that
they wanted out of that negotiation. Invest in yourself. I mean,
education and discipline be luck and over education just book
(37:38):
smarts every time. Education and discipline beat luck every time.
And and and wisdom and common sense and integrity and
a strong intuition and a trained guts feeling beats out
books smart, pure booksmarts every time. I run circles around
people who are much more book smart than me because
(38:00):
I've got a practical knowledge that they can't compete with.
Join communities, focus on building together. Operation Hope will be
opening clubs around the country very soon, in early in
twenty twenty six. Join one of the clubs. Create a
club for your own a local co oper, Create a
seven under credit score community club. You go to Operation
healp dot orgon make a Hope commitment to teach financial
(38:22):
literacy in your local community. Teach it in your school
or your your mosque, or your boys and girls club
or your church. Teach it in your local K through
twelve school or your college. Start a club, Start to
start a club in your fraternity or your sorority. Start
at seven, a credit score club, a one million black
business club, a business club, a home ownership club, an
(38:45):
equity club, a stock trading club, investment club. But build
communities where you're feeding off of off of unif of
similar positive energy. Get the toxicity out of your life.
As I've said before, if you hang around nine broken people,
you'll be the ten. Wealth is not about money, it's
(39:06):
about mindset and moves. Make the right moves now and
you look like a genius later. Sustenance every other poverty
excepts sustenance poverty, which means a roof over your head,
food to the table, to reasonable healthcare, all other forms
of poverty. Your mindset, right. That's why I've said before,
(39:27):
if you give a homeless guy a million dollars and
don't do anything else, all you do is give is
a homeless person a million dollars, he's likely to be
broken six months. That hurts people's feelings when I say it,
but it's just absolutely the truth. Because nothing changes in
your brain that's gonna change your heart, your soul, your
way you make decisions, you're gonna be broke because money, money,
and in himself is nothing but an exchange of value.
(39:48):
I can take all the wealthy people in the world
and all their money and give it to everybody in
this socialist dream, every poor person, struggling person in the world.
And the reality is, in three years, that's all that happens.
We'll have the money all back again, because nothing changed
in your mindset, right, And people just think that having
that dollar, having that bag, having that cash, having that
(40:09):
money is everything. Is No, it's not. That's why you
have an NFL. Seventy percent of all those in professional
sports NFL, NBA are bankrupp in five years after retirement,
and sixteen seventy percent of those people are also divorced
because money in and of itself is not enough. You
need that mindset. So the world is shifting. You can
(40:31):
be a victim of it or a visionary in it.
You can be a victim or a victor. Which one
do you want. Whether you believe you can or whether
you believe you can't, You're absolutely right. I can't guarantee
you that being positive is going to make you a success,
but I absolutely guarantee you that being negative is going
to make you fail. And whether you again as I
(40:51):
said early, whether you believe you can or you can't.
You believe you can't, you're right, and I want you
to when you're being run out of town, get in
front of the crowd and make like a parade over
a round it, through it. I want you to get
to it. Rainbow's after storms. You can not have a
rainbow that went out a storm. First. I want you
to see opportunity everywhere, but I want you to see it.
I want you to see the world around you with
clear eyes and based on facts. Again, I love my
(41:15):
Melody Hobson quote for my friend Melody Hobson. I like math.
It doesn't have an opinion. I want you to have
an opportunistic mindset. Guy went to Africa and cable back
after a couple of days. He was showed. He went
there on behalf of a shoe company. Cable back after
a couple of days. Send me home, please immediately. This
(41:36):
is ridiculous. Nobody here wears shoes. They then found his
brother who replaced him, and that brother took the job
and he flew over to Africa and immediately got lost.
Like I mean me, no one could find him. He
was you know, two three months he's not reporting out,
he's just missing an action. All of a sudden, he
pops up and he says, I've been traveling the country,
(42:00):
been an amazing place. I've just immerse myself in the
culture and fall in love with Africa. By the way,
send me all the shoes you've got that you can spare,
Send me everything you got. It's amazing. No one here
wears shoes. Did you get that? Somebody saw the glass
has half empty? Someone saw the glasses half full. It's
(42:22):
the same dang on glass. It just depends how you
see it. And life is what you see, right, So
I want you to see opportunity. You don't need to
get rich. You don't need to be rich to get
started when I'm talking about here. You just need to
be ready. So visit operation jump dot org for free
financial tools and coaching. Subscribe, tell your friends and subscribe
(42:47):
to this podcast and start having and create a little
club you meet once a week or once or twice
a month and discuss what's being discussed on this podcast.
Break each session segment down on each of these sessions,
these weekly segments and talk about what I'm talking about.
This is my weekly mentoring session. People he asking me,
(43:07):
will you mentor me job? This is it, This is
how I mentor so start having it. So build a club, right,
build a Brant club or Operation Club or John Smith
Club or Joe Blow or Suzanne club. Name it after
you name me a grandparent. I don't care seven the
credit score club, a business club, as I've said earlier.
But make a hope commitment online at operation dot org.
(43:32):
Design it yourself and organize your thoughts and start meeting
on something productive. And build a community of people who
care about the same things you care about. Because eagles
don't fly and packs. You've never seen a flack of eagles,
But you can create a network of eagles of people
who think like you. Again, if you hang around mind
broke people, you're going to be the tenth. The opposite
(43:53):
is also true. Success breeds more success and failure does
the same. Tell your friends to and your family member
to subscribe to this podcast. It's top fifty four entrepreneurship
in the country on Apple. Thank you for that. Let's
keep it rising in the ranks, and let's start a
movement of Silvi rights, from civil rights to Silvi rights,
(44:14):
from the streets to the suites don't bet against yourself,
bet on your hustle, bet on your discipline, bet on
your hope. This is hope with a business plan, and
I believe in you. This is John O'Brien. This is
money and wealth and this has been a segment on
(44:35):
how to manage in tough, potentially down times. Don't get mad,
get even, and success is the best revenge. I'm out.
(45:02):
Money and Wealth with John O'Brien is a production of
the Black Effect Podcast Network. For more podcasts from the
Black Effect Podcast Network, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Host
John Hope Bryant
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