Mr. Money Talk

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Episode Transcript

(00:09):
Today afternoon. This is Josh Barnold, mister money Talk with John Arnold here
to answer your questions on stocks,bonds, mutual funds, how you should
position your investment dollars including your IRAin four one k. But you do
have to give us a call atnine five two nine two five five six
o eight. That's nine to fivetwo nine two five five six o eight.

(00:34):
Always get straight talk, not sugarcoatedadvice. It's AI all the time.
It's AI all the time, AIas an artificial intelligence. It's AI
all the time. And many manyanalysts, many market prognosticators, any talking

(01:00):
heads said, well AI is differentthis time, it's different, the market
is different this time. Well,the topic AI, artificial intelligence is is
hot and the buzz has definitely listedlifted UH semiconductors, the fang names UH

(01:30):
Facebook now now known as Meta,Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Google also
known as Alphabet, and and evenTesla. And then we can add in
I'll say, some other names thateven have a tangential UH associate with with

(02:01):
artificial intelligence. We can add innames like data dog, trade, trade
desk, salesforce, dot dot com, anything and everything that might be in

(02:24):
some way shape or form have alittle bit of a technology or internet bent
is now seen as being associated withartificial intelligence, whether or not they have

(02:45):
anything going on with artificial intelligence,and whether or not they are currently generating
revenues from the name. Well,we have talked about artificial intelligence for a
very very long time and that's whyI can say if the stocks are up

(03:13):
with this with this topic, yes, the buzzes buzzes there, but artificial
intelligence has been around for a veryvery long time now. It might be
a little bit different this time inthat you have some products out there that
have gotten a lot of or generateda lot of excitement, particularly around chat

(03:40):
GPT and it's association both with academiaand especially recently with Microsoft. As a
matter of fact, the excitement aroundartificial intelligence seemed to start not even a

(04:04):
month ago at Microsoft's Developers Conference whenthey introduced the chat GPT product and how
it was going to integrate with Microsoft'sother products, including their search engine BING,

(04:25):
all in an effort at Microsoft isputting forth to better compete with Google
Search Engine. And do bear inmind that Google Search Engine covers eighty five
percent of all of all search andMicrosoft's BING is behind the eight ball,

(04:46):
and I'm guessing anything that they cando to improve that would help Microsoft's bottom
line. But Microsoft continue to saysay that they're going to apply artificial intelligence
to all of their products, andthat has helped to boost Microsoft share.

(05:11):
The two companies that have had artificialintelligence products that are in the you know
that are part of fang, Applewith CIRIE and Amazon with Alexa, seemed
to be will say, semi forgottenabout, but they too have had a

(05:38):
little bit of the brush of AIpainted on them. Apple, by the
way, has their Worldwide Developers Conferencelit'll start on Monday. Some of the
excitement around this Worldwide Developers Conference isattributed to the introduction of a new product

(06:05):
there, virtual Reality augmented reality headset, and how that might fit into Apple's
ecosystem. But I believe if Applewere to talk a little bit about further

(06:26):
development of artificial intelligence or some improvementsaround SIRIE, that that could and I
emphasize the could add to Apple's stockprice, which has continued to move up
and is now at a more i'llsay now more than a fifty two week

(06:49):
high. But should there be anywill say, sell the news event after
the Worldwide Development Conference, I couldsee Apple pulling back a little bit before.

(07:09):
To me it starts, it's summerascension. As talk two appstracting about
Apple and remind everybody the target istwo ten. No, my target is
actually two fifty. Most analysts couldwe walk through two ten before we can
go to two ten before we gogo But we like to walk through no,

(07:29):
because they're not just hard, They'renot just random numbers. Okay,
never give a random number. Thereis there is, all right, there
is something behind that right? Tenis seven seven bucks to share of free
cash alout times thirty okay? Okay, where'd you get the thirty thirties?
Were consumer staples? Trade? Okay? The eight bucks is you're just going
one one year fourth? Okay.So part of this is timing. But

(07:54):
the fear with Apple when Apples andits worst, people think it could be
six times twenty, right, what'ssix times twenty one? Twenty? All
right? Where do we bounce offof one thirty? And when people are
feeling good, they say seven timesthirty? There you go two ten next
year. By the end of nextyear? Are you end the next year

(08:16):
two fifty? Are you I'm intotwenty twenty four at two fifty. Okay,
so maybe the floor and the ceilingwill move. That's the other hope
too, because we're sure at somepoint in time over the next twelve months,
Apple will be a lot lower thanone eighty, because that's just the
way the stock market works. Somaybe the next time on the way down

(08:37):
will be twenty times six and ahalf, you know, or maybe twenty
times seven. I don't know.One forty. We bottomed one thirty last
time. So well, anytime westart talking talking about Apple, I do
do know that the talking heads onTV hate Apple when it's going up.
Well, don't going to go,oh my goodness, this st is too

(09:00):
expensive. We won't touch it.We won't touch it up here at one
seventy, we won't touch it evenat one fifty. But if Apple goes
down to one forty, we're allover it and we're going to buy it.
Right. Well, the last timeApple went down to one forty is
the same same talking heads who didn'tlike it at one price. When it

(09:22):
got down to the price they mentioned, no, we're not going to touch
it until it goes goes lower.Now that it's back higher, they still
won't touch it. Um good,I'll say bad for them, good for
us that are that are big,big in Apple, Well, there are
some other other companies that are thatare also big, and we're going to

(09:46):
talk to them plus more because it'sit is Friday as we take this show,
and we had an unreal day onthe Doubt Dal Jones on Friday,
and we'll say an unreal day onthe S and P five hundred and even

(10:11):
on the Russell two thousand. Sowe've got that to talk about and more.
This is Josh Arnold, mister moneyTalk with Judd Arnold. We're here
to help you call us nine fivetwo nine two five five six oh eight.

(10:33):
This is Josh Arnold, mister moneyTalk with Judd Arnold, here to
answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds, how you should position
your investment dollars including your IRA fourO one K. Don't hesitate to give
us a call. Nine five twonine two five five six oh eight.
That's nine five two nine two fivefive six oh eight. You always get

(10:56):
straight talk, not sugarcoated advice.Now, mister market, particularly at SMP,
has been fretty strong uhcent recently,and a lot of that strength has
come from just a few names jumping. Jim Kramer of Mad Money on CNBC

(11:22):
the other night talked about don't don'tmess with a Magnificent seven, And he
was not talking about the Magnificent sevenmovie or the original that that had Jule
Brenner, Steve McQueen, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughan, James Colbran, Brad
Dexter, and Horse Buckles against EliWallack in a very u fun western.

(11:52):
This was also updated. Kramer wastalking about don't get rid of and don't
fight to make current magnificent seven inthe market, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet,
also Google, Microsoft, Meta,known as Facebook, Navidia, and

(12:13):
Tesla. These stocks are strong andcould continue, according to Kramer, could
continue to be get stronger and arestill a place place to be. And
then as the market broadens out,which seemed to happen on Friday afternoon,
after the job's number was reported andafter the Senate will Say a Brew approved

(12:41):
the debt ceiling bill, just abouteverything else lifted off and the only real
negative was or negatives were in selectretailers and in the semiconductor space. But

(13:03):
that broadening out of hold on broadeningout, Yeah, more stocks were participating
in the body there's no We juststarted on Friday to see some broadening.
Let's put some numbers on this,Okay, you can, I guess,
I guess today I'm going to beto put some numbers on this guy,
because that's kind of my job.Anyway. The SMP five hundreds off year
to date eleven point eight six percent. Let's just round that up to twelve

(13:26):
okay, okay, the equal weightedSMP five hundred, the RSP index.
You can buy that, h takersRSP. So did that break? Did
that break into positive territory? Itdid? It's up two point one percent.
We still have roughly a ten percentagepoint spread between the equal weight SMP

(13:46):
five hundred and the actual SMP fivehundred and the actual SMP five hundred the
top ten stocks I think they're thirtypercent of the index right now. The
other four ninety yea or a lotsmaller for you know how many percent of
its So this has been a concentratedrally. And the thing that was so
big late Thursday and certainly Friday,where we saw energy and banks, those

(14:11):
things never move in tandem, bothup four hundred to five hundred basis points.
That's that's percent that's a fancy wayof saying percent. Just a broad
based move. With rates, bythe way, went higher Friday, we
should be a headwind for equities.It looks like we're climbing the wall of
worry and the rally they broaden inthe short term. Obviously hard to call

(14:35):
the market. I don't know inmy experience. I looked at my screen
Friday and I said, this looksreal. Four now we'll see, well
I would. I would say alot of things seem real now. But
the biggest worry right now is backto the Federal Reserve, whether whether or

(15:01):
not the FED is going to weuse interest rates twenty five bases points or
pause. I think my my AHAmoment this week was really Tuesday when we
got I forget what that. Whatdata did we get is that the inflation
number? Tuesday? We did getthem. We had some macro date,
I forget what it was. Theseweeks can't long, but it was a

(15:22):
FED thing, and the market soldoff on expectations that the Fed was going
to raise rates, and I juststarted, you know, I it's hard
to not get animated. Sometimes wellyou go, you go, get getting
in, but I was I'm onthe phone, screaming with people that we
can't keep selling off on higher interestrates. We just can't. The economy

(15:43):
is better. It was oil wascracking on Tuesday, That's what it was.
Well, you have the other thing. Well, there's several FED speakers
there that we're talking about no pause. We're going to raise interest rates because
there's still more inflation than we cancan think of the covert let me get
the conversation I was ha you withpeople on Tuesdays. The market was reacting
to the perception of higher rates.Was we can't keep doing this. And

(16:07):
what I need is the market eventuallyprices everything in okay, And I just
we've been in this moment for thelast almost eighteen months of rates equals recession.
Tomorrow equals cell stocks, cell energy, cells, cyclicals. Meanwhile,
the economic data stays strong and there'sthis new whether it's hard landing soft landing.

(16:29):
I'll give you another scenario that's startingto emerge, which is no landing.
It's two years later. We stillhaven't beaten inflation. Rates are about
where they are, but we alsohave at cracked the economy. I gotta
tell you. In that scenario,stocks are higher and they're higher because by
definition, in that scenario, earningshave continued to grow. Well, you

(16:52):
have seen that on a continual basiswith the earnings reports that have been coming
out. Again, there have stillbeen more companies h in a lot of
industries that have beat the estimates andand and or have beat beat and raised

(17:14):
their numbers going into even a summerquarter and in and also for the for
the end of the year. Soeither the numbers were taken down way too
much, or these companies have umwe'll say, leaned themselves so that they're
going to be making more money.Uh, anticipating a slower economy. Yeah.

(17:41):
Uh. And when you talk aboutthat recession, I did see you
know, a few analysts talking onFriday about just just that, well,
we were we thought that there'd bea recession happening in late twenty twenty two,
or if not, in early twentytwenty three. And now as you
said, we're talking, well,there might not be a recession, or

(18:03):
it could happen in twenty twenty four. We'll see, we don't we don't
know, we don't know. Butthe short term, I mean, this
market is just gonna wreck the peoplethat are hedged and that's the world I
come from, where people are longand short. Last month was about one
of the worst months for long shortequities, and they got blown up on

(18:25):
their shorts. They got blown upagain this week, I mean just destroyed.
And you so you saw the firstpart of the of most rallies is
high short interest stocks start ripping,right, and then that sort of cascades
because guys have to cover. Andthe question I had for the last week
and a half was which way arewe going to break here? Are the

(18:45):
shorts going to be able to repressdown or are we just kind of a
broaden rally. And in Friday onthis job's number, you just saw broad
based. Okay, I guess wehave to be long. You had a
coiled spring of guys underinvested because ofthe dead ceiling debate. Now when you
start talking about underinvested, what doyou mean more cash than they otherwise would
have. Okay. And you alsohave this dynamic that is so unbelievable that

(19:11):
we've seen. It's one of thestrongest technicals I've seen in my life,
and we've seen it since the globalfinancial crisis, which is most active managers
who track the S and P fivehundred are underweight the fang stocks that's big
tech Facebook, Amazon, Apple andMetaflix, Google, what have you.
I'm using that meta you know bisticallyI'll include in video today. But they're

(19:34):
short those stocks because when you sellinvestments as a business, and this,
by the way, is not us. Our biggest positions are Apple and Amazon.
Right, we're massive Apple and Amazonpeople. But most active managers are
underweight those stocks because they feel theydon't get paid to tell people to buy
those stocks. And when you havethis gap like what you have this year,

(19:57):
where the the S and P fivehundred, which is market kapwaited,
is up twelve and the average stockis only up to what does that mean?
It means most active managers are massivelylagging well the benchmark. And what
do they have to do? Howdo you get fired in this business you
massively underperform in and up here.Most people don't get fired in down years,

(20:19):
they get fired in up years.And so you're gonna have this dynamic
for the rest of the year wherepeople have to chase and that so if
we have a further break up nextweek, you are going to see more
fomo fear of missing out and thisis what that will be a whole change
in viewpoint right, because it lookslike we just climbed a heck of a

(20:41):
lot of walla worry. And we'llcome back and I'll explain what a walla
worry is. What it looks like. We have all these negatives and the
market keeps rowling, and at somepoint people crack and they say, I
guess it's all priced in, andthen they press. But we'll come back.
This is Josh Arnold, mister moneytalk with Judd Arnold, here to
answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds that you should position your

(21:03):
investment dollars. Don't hesitate to giveus a call nine five two nine two
five, five, six or eight. We're here to help you, said
Josh Arnold. Missed term money Talkwith Jet Arnold Security answer your questions on
stocks, bonds, mutual funds thatyou should position your investment dollars, including

(21:26):
your IRA in four oh one k. Don't hesitate to give us a call
nine to five two nine two fivefive six o eight. That's nine to
five two nine two five five sixo eight. You'll always get straight talk,
not sure coded advice. Active managers. Jet being underweight stocks or underweight

(21:47):
in certain stocks. In particular wherewe are very much overweight, we add
our four half Amazon. We arewe have always been, and I have
always been very will say focused andconcentrated in certain companies, and definitely in

(22:11):
certain industries, particularly Internet related companies, leisure related businesses, China related businesses,
real assets such as oil and realestate, doing some short term trading,
and then keeping an asset allocation modelof up to thirty percent in cash,

(22:32):
both for safety and to take advantageof any market pullbacks, of which
typically there are three to four everyyear of five to ten percent, and
then the balance invested in in thosestock areas. But most, as you
said, most active managers, mostmutual fund managers, being being active or

(22:56):
non indexed, are under way someof the large, larger stocks, and
by underweight. Will say, ifApple is seven percent of the benchmark,
they might only own one or twopercent of Apple in their portfoward. Correct.
Now you have two categories of underweightwith dig tech. You've got Apple,
Microsoft, I'm forgetting the third onethat's over five percent a lot of

(23:19):
Well, you've got the Amazon.Amazon is up there. Well, let's
just say it's Microsoft and Apple.Okay, because those are seven eight percent
of the index each. There's alot of mutual funds that can only own
five percent positions, so they areby rule underweight. Okay, Microsoft and
an Apple? All right. There'sanother group of people who just say,

(23:41):
I don't like these weights. IfI'm going to take a five to six
percent position in anything, I'm goingto be high conviction just because the index
is five to six percent, I'mnot doing it. And these stocks have
screamed more expensive than other stocks,and so what do most active managers inaggregate
do? Again, this is notus. We are massive an Apple on
Amazon? Okay, they are longquote unquote quality and their long value and

(24:04):
their short growth. Okay, sothat would mean if they're if they're long
value, more very heavy and financialsfor very heavy and financials, which has
been a disaster this year. Industrials, energy and generally have less tech and
less gross stuff. And so whenyou have a year like we're having right
now, which we've seen this playout multiple times since the global financial crisis,

(24:27):
where fang has carried that's the bigtext complex has carried the indsease.
You have this big spread between theSMP five hundred, which is a market
cap weighted index that's off about twelvepercent this year, and the equal weighted
SMP, which is if you waitall five hundred stocks equally, that's only
up to you have a ten pointspread. And what that means is you're

(24:49):
gonna have a lot of active managersbecause of what's outperforming, that are massively
underperforming. And if you have arally like it looked like we were gaining
steam Thursday and certainly Friday, youare going to have a phoo effect,
the fear of missing out because peopleknow that they're going to lose their job,
and they're gonna lose their client,and they're going to chase into a

(25:10):
low liquidity summer. And so I'vebeen We've been cautious, but invested,
fearful, all the usual stuff.But we have thrown everything at this market.
And not to say that we're notcautious all the time. We are.
And I'm talking more as a tradeor not as an investor. Right
now, when you say we,I think I think you're you're You're not

(25:30):
talking about you and I specifically you'retalking about all of the negative input that
has come at the at the marketor outside inputs, whether it's the death
celing, interest rates, interest ratesrising, fear of recession, etc.
All all this stuff, and it'sthe market because most people are programs who

(25:52):
are professionals to say, at somepoint it's all priced in. And when
we've been talking about all the samestuff, and I at this moment talk
about the last segment. On Tuesday, we had some macro economic data.
Oil sold off because people said theFed has to hike ergo hike equals recession,
ergo sell oil, and oils downfour percent on Tuesday, and I'm
throwing stuff at my screen. Thisis like, how many times can we

(26:18):
do this? This is crazy?At some point the economy just isn't going
to go into recession tomorrow. We'vebeen pricing it. We're supposed to be
in a great depression right now.If you talk to people twelve months ago,
and I'm not saying we weren't someof those people, but we maintain
our investments, we keep our cashbalance. You keep playing rish management,
but boy, this just I don'tknow what else you can throw at this

(26:41):
market. And when you have thisgap, and so what I'm what we're
basically saying is SMP up twelve,RSP the equal weight up two. I'm
not saying the index, the Sand P five hundred's going to go up
another you know, ten twelve percent. But if you move the RSP the
equal ad SMP from up two toup seven, the aggregatet move that you're

(27:02):
talking about across the market is gonnamassive, massive, massive, and you're
gonna mean the wealth effect and allthese other things. And so that's what
I'm really saying is and then it'skind of cascade through credit, credit loosen
stuff. We're already seeing IPOs loosenup. We had a bunch of IPOs
last two weeks ago, a bunchmore of this week. Credits wide open,

(27:22):
and so all the negatives that wewere on the precipice of during Silicon
values. I want I want tostop you there when you say credit is
wide open. How does credit getwide wide open when you've had all these
issues with the banks, and banksprobably probably cutting back on what they're lending
lending too. So we're still gonnaI think we have the nineteen ninety ninety

(27:45):
one scenario, okay, where wehave nineteen ninety two. You had all
the same things and loans go under. They owned a bunch of commercial real
estate loans. We had set upthe RTC Resolution Trust Corporation to buy all
those loans. They sold off allthese things in a lot of real estate
entreprette much made a ton of money. We have a commercial real estate problem

(28:06):
and a bank loan problem in thiscountry far and away, okay, but
you have shadow bank lenity of otherpeople. The bond markets still open.
And look, I know a fewpeople were as terrified as I was during
the bank thing, but here weare. It just it looks better.

(28:27):
I still think we lose more banks, but the probability of it being a
localized issue contained a cr and somebanks, as opposed to a systemic issue
impacting everything is higher. It's gonnabe a local Right now, it looks
like a localized issue. And itdoesn't look like we're gonna have this disaster,
at least for in the short run. But we'll see. You know,

(28:48):
you stay cautious. There's still alot of bank stuff. But in
the short run, the shortest callis it looks like the RSP is going
to rally against the SMP five hundredin that gap of ten points is going
to close. And if that happens, man, the equity market fields a
hack couple lot better and credit keepsgetting looser and you're just in a different
place. The second third order impactsthat are huge. Well, if if

(29:11):
that's the case, Uh, wherewere some of the places that you would
go that be? I was sayinga little different from where look energies right,
Yeah, energy is lagged a punchthat started to work this week in
space after the Tuesday low when Iwas throwing stuff at the screen. By
Friday we were ripping an energy andthat's been that. That's probably the biggest

(29:32):
catch up because that's down early inthe week. Energy the SMP five hundred
Energy index was down double digits forthe year, twenty points spread versus the
index after two huge years mind youright, So I think that's the biggest
catch up trade. For people whoare a little more conservative, you can
just buy XLA. Uh you know. TDW is my big pick there.

(29:53):
NFE is also an interesting one well. Td td W is Tidewater, which
is an offshore drilling drilling company.Yep xl E being the Energy Exchange Traded
Traded fund which is overweight Xon andChevron and then you mentioned a national gas

(30:18):
company that we've talked about before,NFE New Fortress Energy, which is trading
at a fraction of it. Unclearwhen that one works, but we'll see.
UM. So that's interesting, andI think it's more the smaller stuff,
sort of my neighborhood of the world. Zim V z I m V,
which is a dental company, isspinoff up from five to nine right

(30:41):
now, probably worth about twenty fivetraining about six and a half times earnings,
should be trading about twelve fifteen times. That's a spinoff. That's when
we we've owned for a while,and I've done pretty well in That's another
one. I like a bunch.So I think that you know, it's
too early. Where do we notwant We still want to go to real
estate, we still want to goto financials. And I don't care because

(31:03):
here's the thing. When banks aregoing down, it's really easy to say
why we don't own banks when thanksare going up. I'll tell you the
reason we don't own banks because whenbanks are going up, it means you
can make money everywhere else and youdon't have to own banks. You never
have to own banks. I'll makeit. I'm not I'm not a I'm
not a bank bank investor. I'venever been a bank investor. Uh.

(31:25):
So I'll leave that to other toother people, but banks banks. Even
then, I'll say, when wheninterest rates were going up and people said
you got to own banks because interestrates are going up, and said that
that makes no sense. Uh,And now and when interest rates did get
up, bank banks uh got toasted. So I still don't want to own

(31:48):
own banks or other other financials.Well, well, well we'll have to
come back to this when we comewhen we come back for our last segment,
so we'll be back with more.This is Josh Arnold. Money Talk
with Judd Arnold here to help youwith your investments, whether it's inside or
outside of retirement accounts. Give usa call nine to five two nine two

(32:09):
five five to six o eight.You'll always get straight talk, not sugar
coded advice. This is Josh Arnold. Missed your money Talk with Judd Arnold
here to answer your questions on stocks, funds, utual funds, how you
should position your investment dollars including yourIRA at four one K. Don't hesitate

(32:32):
to give us a call at ninefive two at nine two five five six
o eight. That's nine five twonine two five five six o eight.
We're here to to help you.Now, one area that has been we'll
say difficult, difficult and on oneone hand and maybe easy on the other

(32:54):
hand, has been we'll say retail. I'll say retail broadly because I does
give a very big picture on what'shappening with with consumers and consumers pending,
and then select retail in particular.I mean this this past week we had

(33:16):
we'll say the good, good,the bad, the ugly happening. Uh
in retail. The good would beLulu Lemon, which you know some people
call more of a lifestyle than anactual retailer. And they they beat and
raised, saw their stock good jumpjump up. Uh. Then you saw

(33:42):
Macy's missed and cut their cut theirestimates that went down. You saw a
Dollar General follow on with Dollar Treemissing big time and seeing that you know
that stock dry as drop as well. Um, you saw some difficulty even

(34:06):
with advanced autoparts, but still somepositive coming from O'Reilly autoparts. So that's
a little bit on the well.I think. Look, you have to
you have to segment this retail stuffbetween company specific issues and actual issues and
macroreadthrough advanced autoport and apt advanced Autlepoardshas been an unmitigated disaster of a company

(34:32):
for about six years. It's beencheap the whole time they can operate.
I'm reading nothing into that. Likewise, Victoria's Secret taker Vsco, which spun
out a few years from limited brands, can't buy a bucket in basketball terms.

(34:52):
You got sales down fifteen percent intheir stores. Small based retail,
massive competition. You went from twentyyears ago to a virtual monopoly. Now
you're getting competed with on all sides. And there's one thing I know retail
does not do well with, andthat's declining sales and a fading brand because
you keep losing your inventory. Youover inventory, right, and then you

(35:15):
get stuffed with the inventory and you'rethe negative marchin brand. Mean, Victoria's
Secret didn't make a million dollars inprofit this quarter? Seven hundred grand a
profit? Are you kidding me?On? Billions in sales? Right?
And that was at one point whereI was a leader, And that's because
it's just so hard when you puta fifteen percent revit same store sales head

(35:37):
win in the US, you justcan't do it because it's an inventory business.
Let's leave those aside. Okay,okay, the consumer I don't know
actually if there is the same consumerbroad thing going on the way that there
was twenty years ago. You lookat the components of the economy, right,

(35:59):
we're a winner take all place.That's it. The biggest winners are
international companies and the wealth. Thewealthy have plenty of money. Spending is
up and accurate. Now you didsee dollar general, like you mentioned,
what a disaster the low end.These people are getting tattooed with if they've

(36:19):
been the biggest losers from inflation,because inflation always robs the poor, the
most biggest, definitely, big bigloser. With the rise in interest rates,
rates crushes them. They borrow creditcard debt, and they have had
the rise in the price of gasoline, right all I'm saying inflation. All
right, So well, let's let'stake up the components of inflation, gasoline,

(36:42):
electricity, natural gas, food,everything these people do. Wages are
up twenty seven percent in the lasttwo years, and the cost of living,
I believe is up about seventy forthese people. They're getting a viscerated
and so dollar General is a heckof a lot lower shrinking, which is
the euthemistic term for theft in retail, is going vertical, and who can

(37:04):
blame these people? This is failedgovernment policy, top center across the board.
And while that is a different podcastand a different show, we do
have to say when Dollar General goesdown reports numbers that it did, that
is a policy here. It's notlike it the bottom quintile twenty percent of
Americans have any say in anything.They're getting a bad deal and it stinks
anyway. That's not indicative though,of the larger economy, the number of

(37:29):
like apples still selling, plenty ofiPhones, and so all this stuff.
It's interesting anecdotally. But for me, I think the biggest thing that was
scary going back a little bit bigpicture, we were on the precipice of
a massive bank failure that was preventable. But after Silicon Valley Bank, we
were going to lose a lot morebanks. And even when might we're still

(37:51):
going to lose, but it's gonnabe spread out. Okay. We can
have when you can have with creditis you can have twenty banks fail over
five years, which you can't haveten banks fail for one month. Well
didn't have that, but that wasthat was a fear. That's the problem.
So we're gonna get that spread out. So the credit markets of loosing
the capital markets are kind of openand we'll see what We'll see what happens.

(38:14):
But I am I was buying allweek, That's all I know.
I was bought up, buying allweek, staring at my screen saying I
don't own enough stuff. And Ithink you know the theme of the show
this week and the message we've beengiving people, SMP five hundred up twelve,
equal weight, SMP five hundred uptwo. We think the equal weight

(38:37):
is going to keep rallying and that'sgoing to only further loosen up the credit
market, which enables the economy tolast longer, which means a recession isn't
coming in six seven months. Andthat means you could buy stocks, which
is scary because there's still so muchscary stuff. But I think a lot
of scary stuff is pricing anywall.I'm going to continue with my with my

(39:01):
focus on companies have still involved inthe Internet, companies involved in leisure,
China related businesses, and some ofthe you know real assts and some of
the short term trading. You knowthat I have been doing the short term
trading trading. Some can work.Some excuse, well, they can't work

(39:23):
if you can't suck there you thereyou go. But I we've had a
big You've had a big year.You're up with a twenty five percent this
year, keep going up? Whatare you up? What do you?
What do you? What do you? What do you do? You got?
Well, we don't want to drivetoo much. But then after fees,
the UM I'll say the peace PCP, which would back tracking portfolio and

(39:49):
that that is up year year todate. Now that's up year to date.
And then after fees, uh aboutthirty and a half percent and on
a five year basis, I twoseventy's it's a lot two hundred and seventy
percent. Well, what we havewith with for numbers, we're capping next
week. But the cap first,the SMP five hundred verse, our our

(40:10):
core client portfolios is over one hundredpercent for a hundred percentage points, not
double one hundred percentage. So we'llbe out with these average happy to walk
anybody through them. But that's ourfocus. Yeah, we're gonna apple.
Look, there's a lot to besaid, I play around in a lot
of small stocks. I would havebeen a lot smarter and I just bought
big stuff, went to the beach. Maybe I should go to the beach

(40:32):
right now, Well, you mightbe going to the beach. I go
to the your daughter. Your daughter'sdown by the beach, so you get
to get to see her. Yeah. Um, but there is going to
be a lot continue to be alot of volatility that do have to pay
attention to. We do like evenin an upmarket, it's still having having

(40:52):
plenty of cash because there's gonna bean inevitable pullback. Uh, and probably
the inevitable pullback over the next nextfew weeks we'll have something to do with
the Federal Reserve more than anything else. Uh. Then you then we've got
the summer, which is typically wastypically a little less less trading, and

(41:15):
you have to pay pay a littlebit more more attention. But you know,
on the on the on the whole. Uh, we're a little more
bullish right now. Friday Friday wasdefinitive. We got an OPEC meeting on
Sunday. We'll see what they do. They make cut, but I think
that was kind of priced in onFriday. I hope everybody is a great

(41:37):
week. Happy to chat with anybody. You take everybody to lunch. So
if you want to launch, callJoshine twine two, five, five,
six or eight. I am JoshArnold, mister Money. Talk with Judd
Arnold. Fuck you next week.Josh Arnold Investment Consultant is a registered investment
advisor located in the state of Minnesota. All securities discussed are for informational purposes.

(41:59):
Only investing can he's risk, includingrisk of loss. Consult your investment
professional before making any decisions about yourinvestment portfolio.