Chuck’s Commentary - A GREAT Night For Democrats + Trump’s Grip On The G.O.P. Could Slip - The Chuck ToddCast

Episode Transcript
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Hello there, Happy Thursday. Welcome to another episode of the
check podcast. We are forty eight hours removed from essentially
the beginning of the midterm elections, and I'll get to
my reasoning on that again in a minute, But essentially

(01:51):
the twenty twenty six campaign started Election Night twenty twenty five.
Obviously some of you may have watched watch my Election
Night live stream. First of all, just we are ecstatic
how well that went. For those of you that tunedn't
thank you. We had a huge audience, nearly half a
million people coming in. At any point in time, were

(02:13):
still trying to figure out the data, but it blew
the doors off, whether you caught us on X on YouTube,
whether it was on my pages, decision to s HQ,
Chris Elizzes substack. That was the beauty of this. We
could be in so many different platforms. We had tremendous
guests who brought information. It was data oriented. This wasn't

(02:34):
some partisan make yourself feel good or bad fest. This
was simply what was happening. What should we learn from this?
What's the takeaways with people who are charged with either
figuring out how to win or lose an election for
Team Red or Team Blue, or figuring out what happened
to explain blain to you. Look, we're so pleased with

(02:58):
how this went. This is something we hope and plan
to do again, and we'd love to hear from you
of thoughts, suggestions. What did you like that we did,
What do you wish we didn't do that we did?
And what do you wish that we did do that
we didn't? You know, we really tried to gear this
towards those that wanted that were following this stuff pretty

(03:21):
closely and wanted to understand what the heck was happening
on the ground election night and various I know, for me,
I learned a whole bunch of stuff from our guests,
the Newsgirls and what the work that they did in
New York. I want to give them another shout out.
Mable and Rent there and the Newsgirls and what they
did with covering voters in New York City and really

(03:42):
sort of capturing the story before anybody else got it,
which was what was happening with Republican voters in New
York City and how much that they held their nose
to support Cuomo. So just a tremendous success and I'm
just tickled about it. And yes I use the word tickle.
It's called me an old man for doing that. But

(04:04):
we're going to do more of this, but we definitely
would love feedback and suggestions, so don't be shy about that.
I want to get a little bit more. And I
feel like when you have a day to sort of
unpack everything you can, you know, it's like the day
after a storm hits you. Sometimes you think you know
the damage on the night of the storm, but sometimes

(04:24):
you need the sunlight right. And so in a few minutes,
We're going to take a look at things after I've
been able to look at things with some light and
in the light of day. Obviously, I'll also do some questions,
and hey, it's Thursday, it's a college football weekend, and
I'm going to another college football game this weekend. I'll

(04:46):
explain after the interview and after on the other side,
after we do some q and a's, but before we
get there, you know, in the light of day, with
a little extra time to look at all the results.
Tuesday night was a big night for Democrats. This was
not just a good night for them, it was it

(05:06):
was bigger than they would have expected. And I can
tell you what surprised me. I mean, did I expect
Spamberger to win, Cheryl to win, and Mom Donnie win. Yes, yes,
and yes. But it was the fact that Spamberger was
able to win by double digits, and she dragged Jay Jones,
the attorney the controversial Attorney general candidate, across the finish line,
a candidate by the way, that Spamberger did not reindorse

(05:29):
after the controversial text messages became released. He certainly underperformed
Spamberger by a good five to seven points, but she
won by such a big margin. Democratic turnout was so
big that it was enough to overcome that. So I
would say be careful assuming, you know, one of the

(05:51):
quick knee jerk takeaways of this might be a character
doesn't matter. Right, We've seen it with Donald Trump, Now,
we've seen it with Jay Jones. You know how many
times we've seen it with Bill Clinton? Right? How many
times do we need to be reminded of this? And
then I would say, well, look at the margins, you know,
you know, but for in a different national political environment,
these texts would have cost j Jones the election, that's

(06:11):
the bottom line. But because it was such an awful
environment for Republicans in such a good environment for Democrats,
that ended up it looks like it doesn't matter. But
don't kid yourself. Go look at those margins. It did matter.
It just didn't cost him the election. But that's the
point here. That's how big the Democratic turnout was. Take

(06:35):
a look at the state of New Jersey. Jack Chiarelli
essentially hit all of his targets that he did four
years ago in twenty twenty one, when he came within
three points of Phil Murphy, it was a pretty competitive
New Jersey governor's rights Well, he hit those same numbers,
but the turnout among Democrats was so much greater in

(06:56):
the democratic areas than Mikey Cheryl went rather comfortable, So
it was a huge turnout. Basically, Democrats showed up base
Republicans did not. And in fact, the best example of
this was not in New Jersey, was not in Virginia,
not in New York City. It was in Georgia. They

(07:16):
had two public Service commissioner races. And for those of
you that don't live in the South, this is a
little bit more of a Southern state thing, and there's
a few other states that do it this way, where
essentially the group of folks that oversee the public utilities
in a state that help approve whether they can have
a rate height on your electric bills. And by the way,

(07:39):
this I'm going to get to the electric bills issue
in a minute. In some states these are elected officials
and some states that are appointed by a governor or
appointed by a legislature. In this case, these are elected officials.
Now these are two Republican incumbents. They neither of the
men ever faced voters before they were appointed by the
governor and then had to stand for re election. There

(07:59):
was a bit of it. This was sort of there
had been a lawsuit. This is if you want to
get some of the details about this race, I encourage
you to go deeper on this and why these two
seats were on the ballot essentially for voter affirmation on
whether they were going to accept the appointee or whether
they wanted this alternative. But what you had in Georgia

(08:21):
was a fairly low turnout and there was a lot
of money spent in those races, so it was essentially
a test of whose voters showed up. And this is
a battleground state, right Georgia frankly is a state that
I think of is still a bit light red, you know,
when you look at where the you know, Democrats carried
it in twenty twenty won a couple of Senate seats
in the runoff after Donald Trump essentially messed up those

(08:44):
runoff races. Rafael Warnock wins in twenty twenty two, but
gets forced into a runoff by essentially the worst Senate
nominee that Georgia Republicans have had in a generation. But
it took a runoff frohim to win. So I've been
a bit skeptical that Georgia truly is a battleground state
that maybe it was just sort of an it's still

(09:06):
a lean red state that Democrats have to catch a
few breaks in order to win statewide, and in particularly
state level races, they had been getting crushed. They they
hadn't won a state level race, I think since two
thousand and nine, when a gentleman named Michael Thurman, who
happens to be running for governor this time, was able
to win a low level, down ballot statewide race. And

(09:29):
here we are and it wasn't even that close. It
was a wipeout. Now, I will say that this, and
I think this is a little nugget that people ought
to be aware of. I wouldn't be surprised if some
voters simply went into the polls and said, my electric
bills too damn high. I'm voting out the incumbent, right,
and there was a denotion of who the incumbent was.

(09:50):
And so I don't want to underestimate the power of
pissed off voters about their electric bills having an impact
when you get to directly express your frustration to the
Public Service commissioner who oversees rate hikes. But this was
a generic test of the two parties. And I'll tell
you this. If I'm John Ossoff, the Democratic senator up

(10:11):
for reelection in twenty twenty six, the most vulnerable Democratic
incumbent senator in the country, I think it's fair to
say you feel a heck of a lot better about
your chances today than perhaps you did yesterday. Look, he's
a fundraising juggernaut. He's going to have plenty of money.
He's catching a break that Republicans can't settle on a nominee.

(10:33):
Brian Kemps got his choice. And the son of former
Georgia football coach legend Vince Dooley, It's Derek Dooley. You
got two other candidates vying. They're all vying for the
Donald Trump endorsement. None of them have gotten that just yet.
You got Mike Collins in this race, son of Matt Collins.
Buddy Carter running as well, So it's a you know,
he's catching a break. There's a lot of money is

(10:54):
going to be spent between these three guys just trying
to get this nomination. But now, well, I'm starting to
think I was you know, I assume that the governor's
race was sort of a soft ur Lean here. Yes,
Brian kempis term limited, especially if a guy like Brad Raffensberger,
the outgoing Republican Secretary of State, gets that nomination. But

(11:17):
now you have to be pretty bullish about Democrats' chances
up and down the ballot in the state of Georgia
based on these results. But look, this wasn't just Virginia
or New Jersey or Georgia. In Pennsylvania, Republicans throw a
bunch of money trying to throw out a few Supreme
Court justices. They have an up or down they don't.
These were retention elections, and then if the voters choose

(11:40):
to not retain the Supreme Court justice, the governor would
appoint a temporary and then there would be an election
in twenty twenty seven to fill to let the voters
decide who the long term justice should be. And Democrats
beat back all all of those sort of attempts by

(12:01):
Republicans to upend that Supreme Court. It's a five to
two majority right now in favor of the Democrats. That
is twenty twenty eight implications, right you know who's going
to be making the decisions about ballots and about whether
the polls, what time the polls should stay open to
or when early voting should begin, or what's the signature
rules when it comes to absentee ballots. This little these

(12:25):
little things matter, but more importantly organizationally, the party engaged
here and yet they got swamped. This was a repudiation
of Donald Trump. And here's why I say that. If
you look at the exit polling, and certainly if you
look at the polling that I highlighted in my Monday podcast,

(12:47):
the Republican Party brand is in better shape than the
Democratic Party brand. Right. The Democratic Party has some of
the highest unfavorable ratings that's had in decades, and in fact,
the in the network exit polls they did do a
elective exit poll, the Democratic Party had an unfavorable rating
in the state of Virginia of over fifty percent. That

(13:07):
didn't prevent Abigail Spenberger, the Democratic nominee for governor, from
having the biggest victory of of any Democrat in forty years.
And it's the biggest victory of any candidate for governor
since Bob McDonald's victory in two thousand and nine. So
this despite the unpopularity of the Democratic brand, Democrats won big.

(13:31):
So how do you explain it? Two words, Donald Trump,
because his unfavorable rating is basically equal to the Democrats.
Donald Trump's brand is in worse shape than the Republican
Party brand. And that is the driver. As I always say,
you know, presidents create the political weather. You know, we

(13:55):
use a lot of I use I say we, I
use a lot of weather metaphors when it to politics. Right, Collectively,
the entire political analyst community uses a lot of weather metaphors. So,
sticking with that metaphor, it is a president that creates
the weather. It is his political environment, especially a second

(14:15):
term president, especially someone who has got such control of
his party. And this is where his reaction, I think
tells you where this could be. And I think the
next three weeks are going to be fascinating inside the
Republican Party as this finger pointing starts to set in.

(14:35):
Donald Trump, for whatever reason, just handed Democrats more leverage
on the government shutdown debate. Why do I say he
handed Democrats more leverage because he chose to blame the
shutdown for the losses of the Republicans. So in Trump's view,
because remember, nothing is Donald Trump's fault when things go badly.

(14:57):
When things go badly, in Donald Trump's world, you have
to find someone else to blame. Donald Trump is not
going to accept the premise that he alone is why
Democrats had such an easy time getting their people to
the polls. That is something he's not going to accept.
But the fact that he goes out there and Chuck Schumer,

(15:18):
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life insurance is something you should really think about, especially
if you've got a growing family. When Donald Trump goes

(17:06):
out there and said the reason they lost was one
Trump wasn't on the ballot, the inference there is because
there's a whole bunch of low propensity voters that only
show up when Donald Trump's on the ballot. Right, We've
seen this in sixteen and twenty once again in twenty four.
We've seen them in the midterms. They didn't show up
in eighteen, they didn't show up in twenty two, and
it looks like we're going to see a bit of

(17:27):
the same thing in twenty six because they didn't show
up in twenty five. And then he also said, and
this shutdown is killing the Republicans. So if you're Mike
Johnson and John Thune, you've spent the last six weeks,
I think it feeling is if you had higher ground
than the Democrats, because it was Chuck Schumer's decision to

(17:50):
sort of lead the Democrats into saying, no, we're not
going to do this, We're going to you know, this
was a shutdown instigated by the Democrats. And you know,
when you've looked at the polling there's been it's been
fairly As I said, it all depends on how you
want to spin the numbers. But the NBC poll offered
three punches on who's to blame for the shutdown, Democrats

(18:13):
in Congress, Republicans in Congress, or Donald Trump. Well, when
you add up those that blame Trump pluck with those
that blame Congressional Republicans. You get up to fifty two percent,
and it was forty two percent that blamed Democrats in Congress.
You know, so you could it, But the offering was
separately right, and I've look, I think the only question

(18:35):
that I would have done is I might have added
a fourth punch so that you could have had it
a little more even I might have said, you know,
progressives in the Democratic Party, because if you know, one
of the theories of the case that some on the
right have espoused, and some of us have wondered, that
did Schumer do this because of pressure from the progressive
base to confront Trump? More? So, maybe you offer that

(18:57):
punch in that way you can, I think more evenly.
I'm a little hesitant combining one set of numbers and
comparing it to a standalone that that would be my
only caution there. But it doesn't matter now, right, Perception
is reality, and Donald Trump uttered the new reality. He's

(19:17):
blaming Republicans in Congress and the Republican Party for the shutdown.
How the heck now do we get? I mean, look,
I really was a believer, and I thought, okay, everybody,
everybody sees here, this is gonna We're going to land
this plane in some form or another. You know, you
heard the conversation before Tuesday night, there were eight Democratic

(19:39):
senators starting to meet with a group of other Republican senators.
They were coming. Eight is the magic number that they
need in order. That's the number of number of votes
they need to get to sixty if they go with
all the Republican votes here and then this all happened.
So now it's very interesting yet Donald Trump blaming Republicans.
So now you're going to get more demo scrats feeling

(20:00):
as if, Okay, there's no penalty here for sticking sticking
to our guns. You're gonna have a progressive base that
is whispering in the ear of Akim Jeffreys and Chuck Schumer.
Don't back down now. Not only did you not pay
a price at the polls, you may have benefited from
standing up to Donald Trump right now in the polls.
And look at all of the self inflicted wounds Donald

(20:23):
Trump is doing right now to his own party and
to himself via the shutdown. Right he does not have
the discipline to not to to not confess, or not
to not to stick with a message that at least

(20:44):
was getting them to even but he threw the party
under the bus. And this is going to be the
real challenge, I think going forward for elected Republicans because
when you have a result like this in an off
off year, you're going to have there's there's you know,
we're we're hitting an interesting six week period where if

(21:04):
you are on the fence about running for reelection, you've
got to this is your final your final time, your
final exit ramp before filing deadlines begin. In fact, there's
some filing deadlines that are just about to come up
right now for the early twenty twenty six primaries. But
for the most part, you know, if you're going you know,
if you're going to retire and you're you know, maybe

(21:26):
you thought you were going to run for reelection, you
wanted to see what the political environment was going to
be at the end of the year. Well you've now
got a taste. Because you know, if history is any guide,
you know how these twenty five how these off off
year election goes, they absolutely foreshadow what's going to happen
a year later, barring some unforeseen event that radically changes
the political landscape. And given that we've lived through terrorist

(21:49):
attacks and a pandemic. I'm not going to sit here
and say that there's you know, no zero, the chances
are zero there's some event that just totally upends everything. Well,
let's be realistic. It's more likely than not that that
won't happen. That, if anything, we're going to continue to
have this sort of uneven economy, an economy that those

(22:09):
that don't have are going to feel like they're being
left behind. So you're going to have an angry electorate
on the economy. The tariffs are none of them do
good for the economy, and in fact, we may get
more chaos as it appears that the Supreme Court is
going to say that Donald Trump is violating the Constitution

(22:30):
with his tariff policy, and that this all has to
You know that this is the power. This is a
power that Congress has. It is not a power that
the executive branch has, which will only set his agenda
back even further. So you know how many Republicans House
Republicans decide, why do I got to pay Donald Trump's
debt when Donald Trump's not on the ballot? Right, maybe

(22:52):
I can win reelection if Donald Trump can get his
voters out and I can suck it up and take
the uncomfortable aspects of supporting Trump that come with it,
because he brings a type of a different type of
voter to the polls that nobody sees in polling, and
it helps them win reelection. But if Donald Trump's not
on the ballot, and you have to essentially you get

(23:13):
all the downside of Trump with none of the upside.
Do you want to one for reelection if you're a
if you're in a tough race. So the biggest development,
I think, and the biggest piece of fallout that's coming,
is going to be that there's going to be some
additional retirements throw in this redistricting madness that has taken place.
Right talk about a reminder, be careful what you you know,

(23:38):
would pick your cliche, be careful what you wish for
or when you you know. It's easy to start a war,
it's much harder to end it. So Donald Trump orders
Texas to start this redistricting war. It rallies Gavin Newsom
and organizes the California Democratic Party and unifies them in
a way that they haven't been unified in decades. You've

(24:03):
now got a record number of House delegates in the
Virginia Assembly, encouraging them now to do redistricting that will
favor the Democrats, that will put more pressure on Maryland
to join. Yes, there's been pressure put on your Indiana's,
your Missouri's, Kansas has decided to pull back. But I
imagine now, you know, in for a dime, in for

(24:24):
a dollar, you're going to see Trump go even harder
at Kansas to have to do this. But the irony
all this is Donald Trump thought he was going to
be gaining an advantage doing this. Democrats are fighting fire
with fire. I'm sorry that the unintended consequence is going
to be fewer competitive elections in general, But the larger

(24:45):
outcome here is going to be We're going to go
from a fairly even national map when it comes to
house races to a fairly even national map after all
these changes are made. You know. Okay, so maybe you
pick up three or four in Texas on the Republican side,
Democrats may pick up three or four. In California, Republicans

(25:07):
may get one or two more. In Indiana, Democrats may
get three more. In Virginia, Republicans may get one more.
In Missouri, they may get one or two more. In
North Carolina. Democrats could get another one or two if
they choose to in a New York or New or
even in New Jersey. The point is they and then

(25:28):
you had Ohio Republicans cut a deal that is a
less aggressive map that Republicans could have embarked on. Look,
the downside is just fewer competitive races. But I'll tell
you this too, because there's something else that developed out
of the election night in twenty twenty five. You know,

(25:49):
a lot of Republicans and this is always a mistake,
you know, never assume that your success in a presidential
election year means your new coalition becomes durable. And I
think a lot of Republicans thought, hey, look we won
these Latino voters. Now they're in. There are voters just
like Barack Obama in twenty thirteen, and excuse me, in

(26:10):
twenty twelve did extraordinarily well with Latinos, and so there
it was. Democrats thought, there it is, they just have
to do the youth, young voters, black voters, and brown voters,
and they win. And it turned out nope. You know,
there was plenty of voters who were voting for Barack
Obama who would go back to being up for grabs.
Barack Obama wasn't on the ballot, And there's plenty of

(26:33):
these working class voters, whether you're Black, White, Hispanic, that
are pocketbook sensitive and they're going to vote for the
candidate that is speaking to the issues they care the
most about. Well, Donald Trump was talking about prices and
cost of living issues in twenty twenty four. He's not
doing that in twenty twenty five. Democrats in New Jersey
and in New York City and in Virginia. One thing

(26:56):
all three of those winners did that was similar was
talk about cost of living issues. And they guess what,
they all did better with Latino voters than Kamala Harris did,
who didn't talk about those issues. She closed with the
democracy issue, so imagined redistricting Texas, thinking, oh, look, we've

(27:19):
got this new constituency of Latino voters that are now
going to be Republican voters. No, they're not. They're swing voters,
and they're probably going to be swing voting. By the way,
working the working class voter in America has always been
the swing voter if you look at politics more through
class than you do identity, and I think that's been

(27:39):
the mistake. I really believe that. I think the Democratic
Party's mistake since Obama was assuming they won those voters
on identity issues, not due to financial issues, which really
is a translation class issues. Republicans went after these voters
of color using class not identity. And when you look

(28:02):
at why, you know Reagan Democrats voted Republican, well, that
was code for working class Democrats in the Midwest voters. Yes,
there was certainly there was certainly a cultural connection on
that front, but ultimately they were voting on their own
issues and its class issues. And so the working class
vote in America, it's always been the swing vote. And

(28:26):
the mistake Democrats made for the last decade was treating
Latino voters like they were an identity group that belonged
to the Democratic coalition, when ultimately many Latino voters are
blue collar, are in blue collar jobs, and are voting
pocketbook issues. They don't look at the two parties as
part of their identity. They look at the two parties

(28:47):
the same way many voters look at the two parties,
which one is going to give me an opportunity for
a better quality of life? You know, this is where
it goes. You know, the infamous Carvel line of it's
the economy to be stupid. It's always to a group
of voters, it's always about their issues, their financial stability.

(29:08):
So bottom line, this wasn't a good night for Democrats.
It was a great night for Democrats to get over
sixty seats in that Virginia House that delegates to me
for shadows what could be the beginning of a blue
wave election. Now, look, there's still a lot that could
change things. The Republicans and Donald Trump have a ton

(29:29):
of money. But I do keep an eye on this.
It is going to be easier for a Republican. There's
gonna be many Republican candidates are going to start to
distance themselves from Trump in some form or another, or
try to. I don't know if anybody can do it
outside of Susan Collins, because she's been doing it for
so long. She's just in some ways main voters do

(29:50):
not consider her trumpet. How does that work itself out?
And there the more vulnerable Trump looks, the weaker he looks,
the more he's going to lash out, the more he's
going to attack anybody that tries to essentially seek a
little distance for him. I mean, look, when some earl series.

(30:12):
She tried to have it both ways. She wanted the magabase,
but she knew the Northern Virginia voters, right. It says
a lot to me that Glenn Youngkin's fifty five percent
job rating, that one in four young positive Youngin job
approvers voted Frabagil Spamberger. So you know, to me, it's
another sign that this was as much about Trump as

(30:33):
it was about anything else. If the Republican Party brand
is non Trump, they have an easier chance in some
of these elections than they do when they're associated. When
the Republican Party brand becomes synonymous with Trump's brand. And
so that's what I'm going to be looking for over
the next six weeks, is are you going to start
to see more Republicans try to find their way to

(30:54):
seek some distance on some issues. It's going to be
made easy for him Supreme Court rules against his authority
over tariffs. Watch how many Republican Senators start to act
more independently on the issue of tariff's. You already have
seen it a little bit, right. He's putting pressure on
them with the with nuke and the filibuster. It's interesting

(31:16):
who's with them. It is those that are in some
ways more Magga true believers. You're Josh Holly's your Jim Banks.
They're all in. It's the institutionalists that are pushing back
and the Senate Republicans. There's still quite a few of
the institutionalists there. There are two people that I'm very
curious to see what they're going to have to say

(31:36):
about the filibuster on that side of the aisle. One
is Rick Scott and the others Tom Cotton. Both have
wanted to be always sought approval of Maga world, but
they've always been in the It's a fine line, right,
They're a little bit myke canaries in the coal mine.
If they start to seek distance from Trump on something

(32:00):
tells me that we might be seeing more Republicans abandonship.
But that's the big short term development. To keep an
eye on how Trump mishandles, frankly, the fallout from this election.
He's already flailing. He is not accepting the premise that
he creates this weather. And how elected Republicans walk this

(32:24):
line and deal with it. I think it's going to
be something to watch and certainly something I'm going to
keep an eye on and it could be in the
words Vailey Barber, good gets better, bad gets worse. Democrats
had a good night and they appeared they could be
This could improve candidate recruiting. They're going to suddenly have
Senate candidates in Alaska and in Kansas and in places
they've been trying to recruit because you're going to have

(32:45):
fensit or say hey, maybe this is a good year
to run as a Democrat in a light red state
like Kansas. And then on the opposite side you may
see bad gets worse. Republicans had a bad night. If
you're on the fence about seeking reelection, think Donald Trump's
a drag, You don't get any of the upside of
Trump being on the ballot. You may seek to run
for decide to retire instead of seek reelection, opening the

(33:08):
door for more room for a Democrat to run. So
this is why what happened on Tuesday night is so
significant and potentially such a huge game changer going into
twenty twenty six because guess what it's I'm now in
the thirty to forty five percent range in my head

(33:29):
that Democrats could win control of both the House and
the Senate. Get it, You get an you get a
uneven turnout based turnout like you saw in twenty twenty
five on Tuesday, then you might get four Democratic Senate
pickups and certainly the handful of house ses that they
need to get that, and that would be some rebuke

(33:52):
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unless they win. All right, let's do a the last

(35:00):
Chuck Ask Chuck. First question comes of George m Twin
Cities Minnesota. Uh? Can you really be from both? You know? Don't?
Don't you have to pick one? George? Maybe the next
time you write in let me know what can you
say twin Cities? Or are you know, do you have

(35:21):
a you know? Do you split your time between Minneapolis
and Saint Paul? All right, I'm just being snark. Your
question is, Hey, thanks for the live election cast Tuesday night.
Appreciate the effort you and your team went to put
it all together. Yeah, you and me both. Brother Jacob
Fry held on for a third term in Minneapolis, fending
off Omar fatah uh And I'm seeing parallels with Zorn's
challenge to Adams and Cuomo. Curious if Zorn's political skill

(35:44):
explains the different outcomes or if the data suggests something more. Well,
you know, it's really interesting looking at the New York race.
All right, First of all, I'm I'm gonna take a
little victory lap on on the Minneapolis race, because if
you were watching very closely, you know, I saw the
ten point gap, and I thought, well, that should in
my limited experience with the ranked choice voting environment that

(36:06):
we've had over the last decade or two in Alaska
and Maine in particular, but in a handful of other
cities as well, I think San Francisco does it, Burlington,
Vermont does it. Obviously, we now DC's doing my my
home county here in Virginia has moved to frank choice
voting for Arlington County offices. Is that you know, Fatah

(36:31):
had a deal with the two of the other higher
profile candidates. They were basically going to leave Fry, you know,
encouraging their supporters to leave Fry off the ballot and
just rank those three. Well, it looks like the deal
didn't work, or it certainly didn't work well enough. But
I that was one of those where I was like, oh,
it looks I think Fry is going to hold on here.

(36:52):
I was. I was on the minority of that opinion
of our group group last night. But that's all right. Hey,
I was all so wrong about a few things too,
So I'm not gonna be totally be totally obnoxious in
that victory. Laugh. But it's fascinating to watch the spin

(37:12):
with New York City. So we got just over fifty percent.
Is it a huge win? Or did he luck out
from having an extraordinary flawed opponent who we got to
run against twice? Right? You know, Cuomo was if you
could have if you want to run an outsider race
and you want to run against the establishment, and you said,

(37:36):
give me an opponent who oozes establishment but nobody likes,
and you asked chat Gpt to come up with somebody,
they would have said, hey, let me introduce you to
former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. So I find myself wondering.
I was another thing that surprised me on Tuesday night,

(37:59):
and something that I was wrong about a week ago.
I think I hinted here. I said, you know, you know,
why do I think, you know, why do I think
that Cuomo could collapse here because of where he was
in the ballot, and that maybe that Curtis Sleeweb was
he going to overperform well, then a bunch of stuff happened. Right,
All this late money came in for Cuomo. Bloomberg came

(38:20):
in with the late endorsement. He spent money on Cuomo's behalf.
Trump comes in with the late endorsement. And I do think,
despite what some of the voters said to our to
our on the ground correspondence for our Election Night special
the newsgirls Mabel and Rent, despite what was said, no, no,
Trump doesn't tell me what to do. It's hard not

(38:43):
to conclude because, first of all, Republican voters traditionally vote
on election day more often, because part of it is
Trump is almost conditioned his base voters, you know, you
should vote an election day, vote on election day, and
so he has more election day voters. So that last
minute endorsement I think matters. So you know, Staten Island
goes dramatically for Cuomo. And you see SLIA was just

(39:05):
support just collapse as it became a anti So I
look at the Mamdani race and it was essentially I
looked at it as it turned into almost like a
judicial retention race in Pennsylvania, up or down in Mamdani. Right,
Cuomo was simply a vehicle for those that said no

(39:27):
to mam Donni. Right, people weren't voting for Cuomo. They
were simply voting against Mamdani. Cuomo got forty one percent.
I don't buy that there was many positive Cuomo voters.
You know, Let's let's assume half of those folks were positive.
You know, that means about half his support was just

(39:48):
simply anti Mom Donni. Would and this is an interesting
little I don't know what they answers, but would a
let's say the police commissioner had been on the ballot,
would Mom Donnie have won? So was Mom Donnie's fifty

(40:12):
point six and impressive showing with a massive turnout or
did the massive turnout happen because it drove some of
his vote, but it also drove some of the anti
mom Donnie vote. I think that's something that I would
like almost a bit more. I want more data on
this one. I'd like a little bit more after action report.
I'd like a post election survey here on this because

(40:36):
it is notable that Mikey Cheryl outperformed Harris in New Jersey,
Abigail Spamberger outperformed Harris in Virginia. Mom Donnie technically underperformed
Harris in New York City right now, Granted, one of
his chief opponents was a well known member of a
prominent Democratic family, he was not on the ballot as

(40:56):
a d but obviously, you know there was plenty of
sort of more centrist Democrats that likely pick Cuomo. So
I really think if you want to believe that the
progressive movement is on the march, you see, you know

(41:17):
you're going to look for a spin that shows Mamdani overperforming.
I think he benefited from his opponents. But you know what,
So did AOC benefit from a from the rescheduling of
a primary and a unique period and she won and
beat an incumbent because hey, those were the rules of
the moment. She met the moment and her primary opponent

(41:38):
didn't didn't. Is it true that it was a quirky
time in the election calendar that it was the only
time that New York had split its federal primaries from
its state primary, So voters probably weren't all aware that
there were going to be two different primary days in
the same election year. Right, there was a few quirks
here or there that maybe under another circumstance, AOC never

(42:03):
wins a primary for the US Congress under differently. And
maybe if Akim Jeffreys and Chuck Schumer weren't caught napping
when Andrew Cuomo and decided he wanted to be mayor
and they decided to do nothing about it, they had
recruited somebody a bit more viable in sort of in

(42:23):
that wing of the party. Maybe Mam Donnie never catches fire, right,
So obviously I'm not gonna I kind of lean in
that that that Mam Donnie's actually underperforming a what a
broad coalition Democrat could get in New York City. But
I also don't want to deny that this guy is

(42:44):
not He is an impressive political athlete. You know, I
love the phrase political athlete, and I think this is
an impressive athlete. I think he hurt himself at the
end by going by doing the Islam of Fabia speech.
I understand he felt he got baited into that conversation

(43:04):
by by Cuomo's tactics in the last minute. And I
also empathize with the fact that I think Mamdani sees
sees himself as the guy that's got to break the
barrier to mainstream Muslim Americans into the political elite that
you know, I look at the campaign of the lieutenant

(43:26):
of the new lieutenant governor in Virginia, who's the first
ever Muslim woman to ever win statewide office anywhere in
the country, and Uh has Meik Gazala Uh is her name.
She never wanted a debate. She kept an extraordinary low profile.
She took what is conventional political consultant advice on that

(43:48):
many a Muslim candidate has been told to do, which is,
you need to downplay any connections to Islam, you need
to downplay even sort of called you know, and mom
Nannie didn't do that. He leaned in. And I think
that that is it's simultaneously he's seen as as sort

(44:09):
of the uh, the trailblazer for Muslim Americans around the
country running for office who are trying to break break
into being taken seriously and getting a seat at the
table in the in the in the political power structure
of the of America. And so he's he's been willing
to sort of take this stuff on. I do think

(44:31):
it it there are some voters that they don't want to,
you know, they they want to put blinders onto this. Okay,
I don't know how is to put it, but they
just do. They'll support you if you're downplaying it. Right. Look,
African American candidates at first were told this all the time.
Don't lean into the black community, you know, don't you know,
back off Jewish candidates back when they first started running

(44:54):
for office, you know, downplay your identity. Many a woman
candidate in the early days of women breaking the glass
ceiling and executive offices. Same thing. So this is not
a new thing. So I say this in that I
think what Mom Donnie is doing for future Muslim Americans
running for office is going to be of help to them.

(45:15):
They will deal with less Islamophobia, less questioning of whether
they can win win elections. But do I think it
hurt him a little bit at the end where he
might have been on his way to fifty three, fifty
four to fifty five, and then bringing that into the
message because I think there are a chunk of New
York City voters who like his message but don't want

(45:37):
him to be an international foreign policy expert, right that,
no matter what his views are about foreign policy, they
don't want him to use the platform of New York
City mayor to express them. I think there are some
that want him to do that, and that's going to
be an interesting decision how he chooses to go about that.
How often does he use his platform to talk about

(46:00):
issues around the world versus issues in the Five boroughs.
But I do think he's slightly underperformed when you look
at the broader democratic success throughout the night that you
could say and that, and again I look at it
as I think New York City became a mom dandi referendum,

(46:23):
which may explain why Cuomo got as close as he
did with his forty one percent. All right, that's what
I love about this format. We get to do some nuance,
and I've been wanting it is hard to have that
conversation about the New York City mayor's race without somebody
wanting to cherry pick something I said and weaponize it
one way or the other. This is why I prefer

(46:45):
the format that we have here. It's very hard to
do that. I'm not saying someone might not successfully try
to cherry pick something I said and claim I'm implying
something that I'm not, but I hope I conveyed it
in what I was trying to get at there. All right,
next question comes from a Weego New York, He goes,
not just Long Island anyway, I'm from. It's Jeff from

(47:06):
a Weego New York. We'll get there in a minute,
he says, really looking forward to the Orange heading to
Coral Gables this weekend. Yes, that is true. Hoping Mimmy
gives us another chance to Syracuse it up. Like you
said with Steven Jelly out, it's we'll get him next
to your mode. I get it. But a win over
the you would definitely help fran Brown's recruiting pitch. What's
your take on at least Stephonic potentially running for New
York governor. New York City's mayoral race is grabbing all

(47:27):
the headlines, but upstate voters like me are eager for
a leader who prioritize it the whole state, not just
Long Island. Jeff from a Weego New York. Look I
I before Tuesday night, Jeff, I would have said, I
think Kathy Holkle is one of the more vulnerable democratic
incumbents in the country and governors. Now, I'll tell you this,

(47:49):
I think the most difficult thing to do is to
outsit incumbent governor in politics. The only thing more difficult
is to an outstate sitting president. Now, when you're seeking
a third term, I think all bets are off when
it comes to governorships, but when you're seeking a full
second term, and in this case, that's kind of what
she's doing. I think she's going to be tough to beat.

(48:11):
Now A lot to me, A lot's going to be
if how far to the left does Hokal have to
run to survive her primary? Right, she's going to get primary,
and what is she I think she ends up winning
her primary. I don't. I don't buy that she can
get knocked off because you know, I'm old enough to

(48:31):
remember when Kathy Hokel was a surprise victor in upstate
New York in a special election for Congress. So I
think she's I think the fact that she's not a
New York City Democrat is a benefit to her potentially.
But before Tuesday night, I was on the I think
Stephanic is going to be very competitive here. I given

(48:55):
what we saw around the country. I am I am.
I am not at all bullish on any reply. I mean,
you know, bring back George Pataki. And I don't know
if this could go well for Republicans in New York.
I think this is going to be tough again. I
go back to, you know, can Stephanic get enough distance

(49:15):
for Trump? Can she? Can she sort of pivot back
to who she was before Trump, right when she was
that sort of very more traditional New York Republican that was,
you know, a bit more moderate and cultural issues, more
on the fiscally conservative side, you know, very much the
George Patacki model or the Alda Motto model of Republicans

(49:39):
in New York. And I think that when she's not
you know, it's funny about Stephanic. I think she does magataribly.
I don't think her pivot to Trump has been very credible.
I have gotten the sense that she's slowly trying to

(50:00):
get back to her old persona. I think she realized
that what sucking up to Trump gets her. She got
treated like garbage when it came to this appointment and
then non appointment to the UN. I think she feels
pretty pretty pretty put upon in some form or another,

(50:23):
you know, certainly marginalized unfairly. I think, you know, Trump
promised her her her leadership position back, and of course
Mike Johnson goes what leadership position, so that disappeared right.
So again, I I just think that it may be
that their political weather is just too blue for any

(50:45):
Republican to win. But a lot of this do I
I personally think Lawler would be a stronger candidate than Stephanic.
I think Lawler has has sort of cleaner uh, sort
of slightly more into a Republican hands, meaning he's not
considered very trumpy and has a bit more credibility on

(51:06):
not being you know, as trumpy is Stephanic, which is,
you know, you got to sort of walk that line,
I think in order to get the base not to
reject you, but at the same time become appealing to
swing voters. So I think this primary, what does Hokle
look like? Out of this primary? How far are the left?
Does sift to move? And you know she's going to

(51:28):
be feeling, you know, she's going to find herself very
involved in New York City politics because some of the
things Mam Donnie would like to get done, he's got
to do through the state. So it's going to means
he's going to be putting pressure on her. That could
put pressure on her in a primary that could you know.
So I think there's a lot of state and city

(51:48):
politics to play out before we can truly assess how
vulnerable Hulkal could be in a general election. But I
will tell you this, if this is the weather we're
going to have and No. Number twenty twenty six, you know,
I don't know if Michael Bloomberg, as a Republican again
as the nominee for governor, would be able to win

(52:10):
in an environment like this. All right. Next question comes
from Lincoln Sea out of Columbus, Ohio. He says, check,
not only would I stay on a thirteenth floor, my
wife and I actually got married on Friday the thirteenth.

(52:30):
How about that? This is a throwback to what I
said my daughter. I don't think it's ever going to
stay on the thirteenth floor of any hotel ever. Again,
I may displaced to England or in the land of
the Ohio State buckeyesco Michigan. And as a political junkie,
I've always believed presidents should be judged by the hindsight
of history. Sometimes thirty, forty, even fifty years later, well
that's more about policy than norm breaking. I still find

(52:51):
myself sparring with folks convinced that the most recent administration
is either the best or the worst to effort in
my onto something here best Lincoln Sea. I love that
your name is Lincoln. We're asking about presidents. You're in
a state capital named after a Spanish explorer. Anyway, it's

(53:12):
a very full circle here. Look, I don't I think
I was. I mean, let's just take Harry Truman. The best,
the best example to defend your point of view here
is Harry Truman. Harry Truman was very unpopular when he
left office. One of the reasons Eisenhower couldn't get convinced

(53:32):
to run as a Democrat instead ran as a Republican.
In part, you could argue, is because Truman was unpopular
and he was going to probably have a harder time.
One of the reasons Truman wanted Eisenhowers because a dow
Democrats were going to have a hard hard time winning
the fifty two election. But you know, a Truman, you know,

(53:53):
and you know it's funny. It does feel as if
the farther away we get from a president, the more
they're foreign policy becomes their defining legacy more than it
is their domestic policy or there or you get this right,
you get a foreign policy plus their political success or failure. Right,
that becomes so with Harry Truman, Right, there's this he

(54:16):
made tough. He made a tough decision and a tough spot.
You know he was He showed some steely spine, and
he showed how you run against a Congress that's against
you in forty eight, right. You know. So he's got
both a political legacy that many a Democrat loves to
talk about historically, and he's got a foreign policy legacy

(54:39):
that people like Ronald Reagan helped restore Truman's place in
American history by because there was a long time particularly Republicans.
You know, Truman was a punching bag for Republicans in
the fifties and sixties, and it was Reagan that sort
of started to, uh refer to Truman more as a

(55:02):
as a as a president that you know, we should
be proud of and look up to. It. It really sort
of how it you know, maybe it's how he started
to appeal to older, older Reagan that older Democrats that
would later become quote unquote Reagan Democrats. But the point
is you throw that in there. Reagan sort of revised

(55:23):
Truman in a positive way. Then you had the David
McCullough biography that hit that really sort of redefined and
certainly put Truman in a better light. So the point
is is that Truman is is one of the great examples.
Eisenhower is another one. His presidency, you know, in the
near term, was considered you a little mah. I I

(55:44):
certainly think that looking back, he had a it was
you got to you know, his presidency is is is
a bit underrated in hindsight, and I think now he's
starting to get his due. But I do think you
kind of I mean, here's the reality what we're really
saying here. Let's say it this way. You don't really

(56:06):
know how good or bad a president was until the
president dies. Till that president dies and we get the
truth and you get people feeling like they can speak freely,
and you get access to archives and you start to
because sometimes you can't paint the full picture because we
don't have all the information. And then over time more
of that information comes out, right, more papers get revealed,

(56:28):
more letters, more family memoirs, things like that. So yes,
I mean, shoot, look at LBJ. Right, we've been where
you know, I think the Vietnam legacy is still a
pretty big fat demerit on his presidency, but his domestic
legacy is starting to is seen in a more positive

(56:52):
light and is starting to overtake the Vietnam legacy and
putting him even Nixon has gone through ups and downs
of his perception over the years. You know, in the
nineties it started to weirdly improve, you know, over time.
Now I think it's gone downward. How about George W. Bush,
who were Donald Trump has both hurt his legacy and

(57:13):
helped his legacy. Right, So a Dick Cheney talk about
a guy who was viewed one way as vice president
and has been remembered in recent death another way. So
it is It's why I talk about I can't wait
to find out and I'll be dead and gone unfortunately,
but I can't wait to find out what people say

(57:34):
about this era fifty years from now, that's for sure.
All right, next question, Let's see where am I on
time here? So I'm going to make this the last question.
I'm a lifelong end D fan, but I have been
listening to your podcasts and found myself rooting and following you.
M thank you. Part of it is because you need
Miami succeed in order to make your loss look good

(57:54):
for the college football playoff domer. You know, I see
you anyway sincere sympathies on the last game. I appreciate it.
I enjoy your take on current events in DC and
across the country in a grew with most everything you
and your guests suggest very balanced. Michel Meet the Press
recently moved from Southern Indiana, go IU to West Bend, Wisconsin.
Go back, Go and listen to your podcast the entire

(58:15):
eight hour drive. Well, if you're lucky enough, maybe it's
only one podcast parade hours, so I haven't totally roguified yet. Right.
That's awesome and it helped me distract me from the
two cats in cages that never stopped owling. That's hilarious. Question.
What do you think Ronald Reagan would think about Trump?
And this comes from Sherry's Sherry, by the way, you
spell your name the same way my mother spells her name.

(58:37):
She is a Sherry, So that's a c CHR. I
I don't see that very often, so hey, mom, look
there's another Sherry that spells her name the same way. Well,
if you ask Roger Stone what Ronald Reagan would would
think of Trump? I think he would say that Reagan

(58:57):
sort of liked Trump, but you know, was been mused
by him a little bit. And you've got to remember
what Reagan's you know, interactions with Trump were pretty minimal.
It was it is. I have a great origin story
about Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan that I got from

(59:18):
Roger Stone, so I'll share it with you here. That's
why this is a perfect last question. So Roger Stone
is a young operative in seventy eight, seventy nine, and
he is looking for he is working for Reagan. He's
and he's in charge of New York for Reagan. All right,

(59:40):
he's the New York And this isn't a primary. And
you know, at the time, it was thought they were
really trying to play catch up with George H. W. Bush,
who was a financial juggernaut. He had had a much
better fundraising network going into nineteen eighty arguably than Ronald
Reagan did. So Roger Stone need had a finance chair

(01:00:01):
for the New York New York Republicans for Reagan or
New York for Reagan, whatever they were going to call
their organization. And so obviously one of Reagan's big supporters
was Roy Cohne. So and you know, look, everybody you know,
Roy Cohne was very connected in Hollywood, Reagan being a

(01:00:21):
Hollywood guy. So that's how Cone got into the world
of Reagan and Nixon al and Cohne was always sort
of part of that wing, part of, you know, wherever
the Republican Party was going. And so Roger Stone meets
with Cohane and he tells him, hey, I need a
finance director for Reagan, and he says, you need Donald Trump.

(01:00:42):
So but you need to first meet with Fred Trump,
that was Donald's father. So again, this is a story
Rogerstone told me this was for a book interview I
did that I ended up not using just full disclosure
on that. So anyway, so Stone, this is a very

(01:01:06):
interesting story. Stone goes to meet with Fred Trump and
he walks into Fred Trump's office and he sees all
these photos on the wall. Right, it's very much like
Donald Trump. Donald Trump, you know, wherever he is, any
office he has has photos of Donald Trump and other
and famous people. And Fred Trump was the same way.
And at the time it was famous New York City
people and New York City politicians. And Roger Stone said

(01:01:27):
he walked into the office and he'd look around, and
he saw all these pictures of Fred Trump with all
these New York City Democrats. You know, there was Fred
Trump with a beam, there was Fred Trump with you know,
all these different longtime New York Democrats, going why am

(01:01:48):
I here? He was looking for a Republican finance director
to support a Republican candidate for president, right, And here
he is, you Kerry, like, what's going on here? Right?
So he asked him and he says, mister Trump, you know,
I see all these pictures with Democrats. And Fred Trump
then opens his drawer again. This is a Roger Stone story.

(01:02:11):
So you know, I'll let you decide the truthiness level
of it. But I don't you know, when you interview
somebody in person, you sort of you feel like, you know,
this is the best I can do. And there's certainly enough.
You know, the facts themselves are checkable, many of them,

(01:02:34):
and certainly over time, I think other parts of this
story certainly have proven to be true. So, according to Stone,
Fred Trump opens a drawer and he pulls out a
voided check that he had written to the John Birch Society.
I don't know, maybe it was one hundred thousand dollars
I think that's what Stone said to me at the time.

(01:02:55):
Maybe it'd have been fifty thousand, who knows what the
actual number was some at the time, a big number.
And he's like, you know, does this convince you that
I'm one of you? At the time, and so from there,
Fred Trump says, Okay, I think I think Donald should
do this. You know, essentially, in order for Donald Trump
to be involved, you had to get Fred Trump's permission.

(01:03:19):
Fred clears it, and Donald Trump becomes the you know,
helps helps raise money for Donald Trump in New York essentially,
but the relationship was essentially that right though, the way
any president has a relationship with people who help raise money. Presidents,
you know, you have to remember to know their name.
You don't always really know them that well. You know.

(01:03:42):
I think it's really hard to know what Reagan would
have thought of him. I know what Nancy Reagan. I
have a feeling I know what Nancy Reagan would have
thought of him. I don't think he would have thought
much of him, and I certainly don't think Jim Baker
would have thought much of him. You know, there was
a part of Trump that was that fell. It was
a little it was Reagan very much is a guy

(01:04:06):
who felt comfortable in a white tie, and Donald Trump
was sort of it's another way to put it new money.
I'll just leave it at that. I'll let you imply
what that is. But I think you know where I'm
going here. So I don't want to say it was
oil and water. But I certainly, you know, the character
stuff I think would bother Reagan a lot more than

(01:04:29):
people understand do. I think that there was a there
maybe their belief in that somehow you sort of lean
in a little bit, you know, you steffing up, You
maybe push the envelope every now and then, uh, in
order to make a point. You know, maybe you exert

(01:04:51):
some power you may or may not have. You make
a threat that you're not really going to carry through,
but you go ahead and make the threat. So certainly
you might say there's some stylistic similarities that Reagan might
have been okay with. But I you know, I think
back to an anecdote in Jimmy Carter's book on his Diaries,

(01:05:15):
which I think is the greatest presidential memoir I've ever read,
because it was it was done. It was his diaries
with then notes later on his and one of them
was how the relationship Reagan and Carter actually had In
seventy seven and seventy eight, Carter knew Reagan was his
likely opponent. In eighty we were in the middle of

(01:05:38):
the Panama Canal debate at the time. Carter was going
to do something. He said, Hey, why don't we give
Reagan a heads up so before he spouts off, he
at least knows what I'm going to do. And that
is what kind of like that. That was sort of
the cordiality that existed between the two parties. And here
was Reagan not even that there was a professional relationship

(01:06:00):
between President Jimmy Carter and the former governor of California
who was his likely opponent. But there was a sense that,
you know, he ought to be we ought to we know,
he's a big advocate of not getting you know, of
not letting go of the canal. Let's let him know
what I'm doing here, So I really, you know, and

(01:06:22):
maybe i'm and I think we all do this with
people that are no longer alive. We'd like to think.
I just have a feeling Reagan wouldn't be a big
fan of the Trump character, even if he didn't mind
some of the policies. All Right, that was a longer
story than I planned. So I'm going to do a
a I apologize here because I don't like to go
that long. Unless you're on the eight hour drive with

(01:06:44):
two howling cats. Then I'm not going to apologize be
helpful here. But let's get in a little bit. It's
homecoming weekend, Miami's you know. Look, there's a part of
me that says, Miami, we should feel disrespected by the
ESPN College then controlled College Football Committee. Remember this is
the ESPN Invitational, they own, they control the college football playoff.

(01:07:07):
So I don't accept the premise that this is some
sort of totally fair situation. Right, the SEC is going
to get every benefit of it out. Notre Dame is
going to get every benefited out. For whatever reason, even
though the ACC is in business with ESPN, the ACC
does not have a business partner that treats them fairly.

(01:07:27):
And why the ACC has not been tougher on how
ESPN mistreats their business partner here they're in business together.
I think the ACC Commissioner is two week in challenging
the way ESPN this is the ACC mistreats it treats

(01:07:49):
it like a second class business partner. Again, I don't
know why anybody would get into business with ESPN and
college football during this SEC period because and has made
the decision we are not going to prioritize anything else
of the ACC. In fact, I learned a little nugget
in Dallas from a pretty well connected source about how

(01:08:10):
every week the Commissioner of the SEC, and I actually think,
you know, this is his job. I don't know why
the AEC commissioner is. Every week, the Commissioner of the
SEC lobbies ESPN to make sure Chris Fowler and Kirk
kirb Street are calling an SEC game, not an ACC
game or a Big twelve game. And anytime he gets

(01:08:31):
a whiff that they might go and make their and
send their premier broadcast team to a game that does
not feature an SEC team, Greg sank throws a conniption fit,
and he's constantly putting pressure on ESPN that if you
want to be in business with the SEC, you have
to prioritize the SEC and screw your other business partners

(01:08:53):
in the ACC and Big twelve. So again, very well
connected source on this, this happens almost weekly that Greg
Sankee pressures ESPN executives constantly in trying to make sure
SEC games are treated differently in ACC. So my point is, yes,
I still have that chip on my shoulder, and yes,

(01:09:15):
there's no doubt in my mind that the ESPN Invitational
Committee went out of their way to totally you know,
I think mystery. There is no way Alabama or nd
get dropped from two to eighteen with two loss and
they're losing two out of three. That quickly that said, look,

(01:09:35):
it's not as if Miami didn't know what the uneven
what the unfair rules were going to be that you
cannot get You cannot be in the ACC and have
two losses and expect to get in the College Football Playoff.
You can be in the SEC and do that. You
can be Notre Dame and do that. You're not going
to be allowed to do that in the ACC because
they have arbitrary They have arbitrary rules of how this
works because Greg Shanky is going to make a phone

(01:09:56):
call and they don't want to deal with it. So
let's realize that that that's the rules of the game.
And I understood that going in, which is why I'm
angrier at a football team not prepared to win a
game knowing that the season was on the line. So look,
I want Miamian win every game. I hope they can

(01:10:18):
get their heads together. I think this is a huge
test for this coaching staff. If they can't finish the
season and run the table here, then you have to
wonder if they've lost the team. Again. There is not
a single team they've played where they have less talent,
but there are plenty of teams that they've played where
they're getting out coached and out prepared. And that's the problem,

(01:10:42):
and that's it. I Look, do I think Stracuse with
Steve Angelly would be giving Miami? I would have me nervous,
it would, I am, But I have to tell you
I would not. This is not a week I would
bet on either Syracuse. No outcome would surprise me. If
you told me Mimi had to sleep while one by
ten because half the team's just not that into it

(01:11:03):
and they realized that that the goals of the season
are over, that wouldn't surprise me. Or if or if
Mimmy put up a sixty burger and suddenly woke up
and decided, Hey, we're going to make this really difficult
for the ESPN executives when we're sitting at ten and
two and they've got to explain why they're picking Notre

(01:11:25):
Dame ahead of Miami for the college football playoffs. So,
like I said, I certainly still have a chip about
all this in different ways. Look quick, you know this
is not the not the best college football weekend, but
I think there's a few it should have been. Right
LSU Alabama when the season started looked like it was

(01:11:47):
a big deal. But here's the games that I'm I'm
curious to see because I'm curious to see if there's
any any fight left in a handful of teams. So
Miami Syracuse is a classic one right now? Engaged is Miami?
Is this? I've told you this has happened multiple seasons
in a row where once once the postseason goals are over,

(01:12:12):
there seems to be a collapse with the rest of
the rest of the team. Does that happen here or
can Miami successfully win by five or six touchdowns, which
frankly they're favored to do. How about Penn State? They
gave a one half of a fight to Ohio State. Well,
they play Indiana this week. This game's at Penn State.

(01:12:34):
I think the new coach bump is usually only worth
only works after the first week or two. Then I
start to wonder our players starting to think about what
their value is in the portal. I can tell you
this is a better I am not fading Indiana anymore.
I'm out. I've lost too much money betting against Indiana
thinking that these points spreads are overpriced. I'm out not

(01:12:57):
touching it. Congratch Signetti. I've gone you you win, you cover,
that's for sure. But does Penn State have any life left?
If they do? Maybe this is you know, I still
think Indiana is going to have a one more scare
in them. Right. The Iowa game turned out to be
a huge scare. Uh b Yu, Texas Tech is a

(01:13:20):
huge game winner, is going to be probably the favorite
of the big twelve losers likely out right, b Yu man,
they are a they only UVA is more smoking mirrors
than byu Right, But your record, you know, as great
Bill Parcells said, your record is you are what your

(01:13:41):
record says you are. And there ain't a no you
know what that tells me it's really well coached team
because they always they're prepared to win no matter what
situation they get put in. But this is a tough
road test. It's a much bigger game for Texas Tech.
A second loss and all you know, than than they're
crying and there in their nilber the way Miami is.

(01:14:08):
I'm not saying Ohio State's on upset alert, but they're
playing at Purdue. They've blown this game before as a
top five team. I'm not saying, but this is a
team produce shown some fight. They stick around in games unlikely,

(01:14:31):
but anyway, put it this way, put it in your
four box, especially if since there's you know, it's a
big ten network game, it'll actually be of your YouTube
TV subscription. A and M in Missouri is an elimination game.
Missouri's at a four string quarterback. This is probably even
though it's ranked versus rank, this is probably a flex

(01:14:51):
a moment where A and M gets to flex they
Probably the best game on the board is Oregon and Iowa.
I don't know if you've been paying attention, but the
Kirk Farrence's team there in Iowa City, man, they you know, yes,
they've got the lost Indiana a game. They've given Indiana
the toughest game that they've faced there is no tougher

(01:15:15):
place to play than than Kinnick Stadium. There I this
is you know, losers out of the playoffs. This is
probably a loser goes home winner is you know at
this point, especially if the ACC is only going to
get one, that means that Big ten might get four teams.
You know, who's the fourth team, who's the third team?

(01:15:38):
Iowa a win here and they're suddenly making a play
for that third or fourth Big ten slot. So it's
a big game, and I think the sneaky best game
of the weekend Auburn and Vanderbilt. Do you believe in
the new coach bump, the Hugh Freeze firing? It's it's
actually done quite well if you look at it through

(01:15:59):
the spread, and I you know, if you wanted to
pick vander you can pick some knits at Vanderbilt. You
know their their body of work is great, but when
you look under the hood, it's not statistically the greatest
on that front. If somebody's gonna finally knock Uva off

(01:16:23):
of its perch and give them their first loss in
the ACC, Wake Forest is a pretty good candidate. Don't
overlook that game. And then the two others they again,
it's more on upset alert than anything else. Does LSU
have a have a a relieve that Brian Kelly is
gone bump? Does Garrett nus Meyer, who clearly wasn't getting

(01:16:44):
along with coach Brian Kelly? Does he have the game
of his life against Alabama? Here's something that is true.
Whenever Alabama's favored by double digits in the when Klein
de Boor has been in charge, the games turned into
a pretty interesting game. And in fact, alib Is blown
a couple of them, so that's a small upset alert.
And then Navy at Notre Dame. It seems as if

(01:17:07):
Navy always there was a time where it didn't matter
what Navy's record was, it was a given that they'd
make Notre Dame sweat you know, that they would make
it a one score game. I think after the clunker
that Notre Dame had last week against BC, that they
probably right the ship and they take care of business here.
But I enjoy me a good Navy Notre Dame matchup,

(01:17:30):
and I know a lot of a lot of my
midshipman retirees also do too. Always fun to see Navy
play with the big boys and hang with Notre Dame,
and they've done it a lot throughout this century. I
think they even pulled an upset once. So, like I said,
no awesome games this weekend, no games of the year,

(01:17:52):
which probably means at least two top five teams lose. Right,
Because it's always the weeks you don't expect, college football
delivers the kookie and the crazy. So for those of
you going to Miami or going to any college football game,
enjoy your weekend doing that. And for some of you,
I'll see you in Miami. Go Kins.

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Chuck’s Commentary - A GREAT Night For Democrats + Trump’s Grip On The G.O.P. Could Slip