Battleground LIVE: The Swing State Numbers w/Seth Keshel

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Morning Europe.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
About to enter the arena and.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
Join the battle to save.

Speaker 3 (00:09):
America with your host Sean Carnell. Good evening, America. This
show that you're watching tonight is called Battleground Live. This
is the show where we kick ass, and we take
names and we lock horns with the radical left. We
never quit, we never surrender. From sea to shining Sea
and everybody in between. Welcome patriots on this glorious Thursday.

(00:34):
What are we like, five days before election Day, five
days before we save this extraordinary country, folks. A couple
things right off the top, Happy Halloween. You know, got
to take some just a couple of minutes to acknowledge
what's on the calendar. And I know that my wife,
Commander Melanie, she and I were talking about how, you know,
we've got five kids. People that are ogs and have

(00:57):
been listening to the show for a long time know that.
But our kids are getting older, and we both lamented
the fact that they don't really get dressed up.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
They don't get really dressed up like they used to
do for.

Speaker 3 (01:11):
Halloween and even in the moment when they were kids
at the time, like they get back from school, it's
fast and furious you've got to get them all dressed up.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
It was chaotic, it was hectic, and there were a few.

Speaker 3 (01:22):
Times back then who I found myself, you know, complaining
about that or thought it was stressful or whatever. But
now that we don't have it anymore, we miss it.
So that is what we are dealing with here in
Fort Parnell today. But happy Halloween nonetheless. Also, folks, President
Trump is the most electrifying political figure of my lifetime. Again,

(01:46):
Ogs of the Battle Group. Folks who've been listening to
this show for the last year, you know, I'm a
rider died Trump guy. I always have been. But there
will never be another politician like this guy. He took
biden insane garbage comment that the media tried to cover
up and gaslight us into believing it didn't actually happen,

(02:08):
and turned it into a news cycle that dominated just
about the entire day yesterday, it even part of today.
So we're gonna talk a little bit about that. But
I've also got the great Seth Keshel in the arena tonight.
He's on deck here very soon. I really like Seth.
He's a former Army captain, he's a military intelligence officer,
he's an Afghanistan veteran like myself. But what I admire

(02:32):
the most about Seth, and we'll get to him here
in just a second after I get a couple of
ad reads in, is that in the wake of the
twenty twenty election, and you all know I had my
name on the ballot, was running in western Pennsylvania in
the biggest swing district in the state, and for many
of you all who followed my race, which I know
many of you did, there were so many statistical anomalies

(02:54):
in twenty twenty, including the fact that I overperformed President
Trump in my district and my opponent underperformed Biden. So
even that statistic alone, mathematically, how does how does how
does Biden and my opponent win? But nevertheless that this
isn't this isn't a post mortive of my election in

(03:15):
twenty twenty. But I've told you all many times that
I felt like I was alone in twenty twenty and
presenting all of this what were a mountain of evidence
of fraud to the media and to people who would
investigate such things, and most of it fell on deaf ears.
People like Seth Keshel were few and far between, stood

(03:37):
up and were unafraid of the media pressure and the
intense pressure to cave, calling the people conspiracy theorists or
election deniers or what have you. Seth didn't bend, buckle
or break And you know, I love that. I love
when people have the backbone to stand up for what

(03:59):
they believe in. I mean, I had lawyers who represented
me on what were very strong foundational constitutional cases on
election integrity bail because they were getting threats from people.
Why had Antifa showing up at my house and spray
peating my home and everything else. I never backed down.
So my point is I learned a lot through those

(04:22):
very tumultuous times in my life of who the good
people were. And Seth is one of them. So stick
with us. He's on deck. Going to get to him
just a second. Don't forget about Official Sean Parnell dot com,
your one stop shop for all things America first news
specifically cultivated for you the Battle Crew. Also locals that
We've got a subscription page there. If you can subscribe, great,

(04:43):
If not, also fine. We just want you in the
conversation beyond this show. Also, make sure you smash that
like button, that little green thumb beneath the video. Okay,
everyone thinks they're keeping their families safe, but are you really?
With elections coming up, anything might happen, and if you
dare defend yourself or crazy twisted legal system will probably

(05:06):
put you behind bars while the criminal walks free. How
many times have we seen that play out in the
news right before our eyes.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
You see, they've got us.

Speaker 3 (05:15):
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Speaker 1 (06:10):
Before it's too late.

Speaker 3 (06:12):
So tex Sean s e A N to eight seven
to two, two to two right now, So without further ado,
let me introduce you all to Seth Keshel. Welcome, my friend,
Army Captain Afghanistan veteran, twenty twenty election denier.

Speaker 1 (06:31):
Welcome to the show, my friend. It's great to have you.

Speaker 2 (06:33):
Well, it's going to be on with you, Sean, and
let me fix your verbage a little bit. I'm not
an election denier. I'm a fraud affirmer.

Speaker 3 (06:39):
There see, I see, Seth, this is I like the
cut of your jib, even though you're not a navy guy. See,
I went to your substack and I was reading up
on you for so. First of all, Seth has a substack.
You should go subscribe to it. He's got twenty six
thousand subscribers over there. But he has this like little
paragraph about himself on and I was reading about him.

(07:01):
And I've known Seth for a couple of years now,
But it says intense exposure on several Mainline Right broadcasts
like appearances with Sean Spicer and Jesse Jesse Kelly, plus
an interview on doctor Steve Turley's one point two million
followers and counting on YouTube channel has brought many new
followers here to this journal, and the event that you're
not one of those new followers, one reason you may

(07:22):
not have heard of me till now is because I
don't come with much of a filter. And when it
comes to discussing the state of today's elections in this country,
I'm the guy that gets invited to headline a Lincoln
Reagan dinner only for legacy GOP bigwigs to opt out
with a date night with the misses. And I thought,
you know what, You're a pretty good fit for this show, Seth,

(07:43):
because we like to kind of tell.

Speaker 1 (07:44):
It like it is here.

Speaker 2 (07:46):
Well, you know, the humor is always something that keeps
us going as a military man. I think you understand
that that some people get so serious about every little thing,
Like right now we're melting down and freaking out about
a gender gap and early voting which had like the
damn gender gap of every early voting episode. But you know,
we can get into that as we get in the weeds.
But I will say about the Navy, so I was

(08:08):
a captain in the Army three Junior Company, great officer.
Most military guys that get out as an officer that
get out, you know, without retiring or captains. And I
was in Washington State in twenty twenty two, across the
Columbia River in Clark County, and I did an elections
event there. You may not know this, but Washington State
makes Pennsylvania's elections look amazingly clean. And Washington State Washington State.

(08:33):
My calculation was that Washington State probably had forty nine
thousand fraudulent ballots per elect tour in the twenty twenty election.
That and right now they're finding sixteen ballots per apartment
in some of these places in Seattle. But I went
down there to diss on the elections in Washington State,
and Seattle Time sent somebody down I five to cover
the event. And first off, they described me as lanky,

(08:53):
which I kind of took offense to that because I'm
not lanky. I'm two hundred and forty five pounds, but
you know, they wrote that up. But they called me.
They called me a former military captain, which is correct
but not precise. And then the next paragraph said I
was an ex Navy officer. So I actually got promoted
three pay grades to naval captain.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (09:14):
So we've got like we've got all all branches here
on the battle crew that watched this show.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
But yeah, man, so you were very well appreciated here.

Speaker 3 (09:24):
And we talk about the twenty twenty election often on
the show, and not because we are incapable of addressing
what's coming. I mean, the the elites and the establishment
GOP and certainly the Democrats and their allies and the media.
They like to pretend that we can't walk and chew
gum at the same time I talked, they don't want

(09:45):
us talking about the twenty twenty election because they want
us to keep making the same mistakes moving forward. They
don't want us to change and secure our elections, and
if we talked about it, it's more likely that we
do that. So we talk about the twenty election a
lot on the show because it's important to expose what
they did then to shore up elections moving forward, because

(10:08):
if we don't have secure elections, we don't really have
a country that's representative of the people, which is what
our founders always intended. And when my election happened in
twenty twenty, you and I that's how you and I connected,
And I mean Pennsylvania was a disaster. But the math,
and I don't want to spend too much time on

(10:28):
twenty twenty because I want to get into the battleground
state numbers with you, and you they're just a data guy,
and you're awesome with all that stuff. But the math
simply did not add up in my district because the
number of mail in ballots, as you know, is not
speculative any way that you cut it, even with the
ballots remaining after election day, I was going to have
about a thirteen thousand vote margin of victory any way

(10:49):
you cut it, even with the mail in ballots out
there as they were. And then four days after election day,
a ballots up of four thousand votes, then one of
nine thousand votes curiously adds up to thirteen thousand, and
the rest is history. And so what did you see?
Let me ask you this, seth, What did you see
in twenty twenty that made you say to yourself, Okay,

(11:10):
you know, I'm a military guy, but I got to
step up and get involved in this fight.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
Well, it's interesting because my initial story, the one that
people were learning three years ago when I became a
name with elections. It's it's something you read in a movie,
and I was not somebody that wanted a big social
media following, and I really don't know that I want one.
I have one, you know, and I'm gonna make the
best use of it until I no longer do. But

(11:36):
the twenty twenty election, to me, it was a hobby
until the firing range went hot. And in twenty sixteen,
I wound up creating as a hobby, winning electoral matt
for Trump that matched fifty out of fifty states. And
the reason I deciphered it was because so at the
end of an election cycle, the media does something called
hurting hgrbing. Now, I know you're friends with Rich Barris,

(11:57):
and you know, Rich and I communicate sometimes and I
like a lot of his terminology. But you know, I'm
sure Rich and you understand hurting. Where hey, we need
to preserve some credibility. Let's get to these results.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
Yeah, we talked about this just last night. Yeah yeah.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
So of course, here in the close of this election,
everybody's gonna give North Carolina to Trump. You know, everybody's
gonna write Florida and Texas off, which they've been written
off for a long time. And now you see people
hurting Pennsylvania to the right, which is a huge tell
where this selection should be going. But you know, other
people may not do polling, but like Frank Luntz, he hurts.
You know, he's been hedging the whole last couple of weeks.

(12:33):
Will Trump might win? Yeah, yeah, no, no kidding, Frank.

Speaker 1 (12:38):
I think that's exactly right.

Speaker 3 (12:40):
Like just yesterday he was like and he does like
Frank is like I he's like the perpetual doomer. You know,
he's like, oh, you know, Biden said the garbage comment
and oh my gosh, there's three percent left undecided. Like
he was like, gone, CNN, does that Trump could win now,
like because of the garbage comment, not as if Trump
has been strong all along.

Speaker 1 (13:01):
Just because you know, just because of the garbage comment.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
Well, so the media heard at Ohio in twenty sixteen,
in September, two months out right, so you don't usually
heard that early, but they pretty much gave it to Trump.
So somebody got the duty to dump a poll that
Trump's gonna win Ohio by five or more. And of
course that's media speak for it's going to be eight
or more. And I pegged Ohio right about eight points,
and then I learned about voter registration by party, and
I wound up crafting my own map, deconstructing the known map,

(13:28):
calling Pennsylvania Michigan for Trump, and understanding where the rest
of the states were going to fall. And presidential elections
are extremely predictable based on past trends and tendencies. And
Rich likes to call the twenty twenty election a quasi election,
and I'd say that's a really good description of it,
because I've researched that thing for four years. I've had time.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
To I know you have.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
I've had time to dump my brain out and question myself,
question of my insanity, go back and rehash numbers. And
what I've been able to find is enough clearing inconsistencies
where I can tell something that has a normal looking
output and a normal looking where it seems like something
did not happen here, Like Miami Dade County's a great example.
I believe Trump carried three states in twenty twenty with

(14:08):
the certified results that he wasn't supposed to. I think
that he was supposed to have North Carolina, Florida, and
Texas ripped out from under him. Yes, Texas, Joe Biden
had six hundred thousand more votes in Texas in a
losing effort than Donald Trump won with in twenty sixteen.

Speaker 1 (14:23):
So Trump say that again, is for real? That for real?

Speaker 2 (14:26):
Joe Biden's vote total in Texas in twenty twenty was
six hundred thousand higher than Trump's winning total from twenty sixteen.

Speaker 1 (14:36):
How is that even possible that Trump's saying?

Speaker 2 (14:39):
So part of the eighty one million votes is a
lot of votes in losing columns all over the country.
So you know, I've been screaming that Biden looks like
he's got a million fraudulent votes in Texas in twenty twenty,
and everybody says, well, you're crazy. Trump won the state. Yeah,
he won the state. And his gain was the largest
Republican gain in the history of the Republican Party in
any won election, and the only one by five and
a half points. And little by little, people have been

(15:00):
unpacking that in Tarrant County and in Harris County, and
there's two hundred and fifty four counties in Texas. Now
we're looking like we're going to have a more normalized turnout.
So I'm wondering if these twenty twenty four stats are
a confirmation that Trump is surging or a double confirmation
that I was right about twenty twenty.

Speaker 3 (15:16):
You're saying that these that these you know, million additional
votes in Texas for example, aren't They're not showing up,
They're not there, seth.

Speaker 1 (15:27):
So let me ask you a question.

Speaker 3 (15:29):
Is that just because Republicans have gotten better at identifying it?
Or is the deep state just like screw it Kamala
is worse. I mean, what's your take on why those
those votes aren't there at this time around, or at
least it seems that way as of right now, right Texas.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
Has dumped more than a million registered voters from the
role since twenty twenty, very quietly and over a long
period of time. Texas doesn't register by party, but it
does seem to voter role purges only hurt one party
in particular. And that's very evident in your state, in
Philadelphia County. But what I was gonna say about Miami
Dade County is that Miami Dade County is the only
county in America with more than one hundred or with

(16:06):
more than a million votes certified in twenty twenty where
Biden lost votes from Hillary. Every other county of that size.
He gained massive amounts of votes, so something did not
happen in Miami. So I can spot this stuff in
the states where this seems to be low. It seems
to be let off the gas here. And I think
the best explanation is that there were organized ballot harvesting

(16:26):
efforts in conjunction with massive expanded early in mail end
voting to max out the Democrat vote share everywhere possible.
And of course it has to thrive on existing voter registrations,
which absolutely out Michigan. Michigan is the worst of the
blue collar Big three, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is in
the middle. In Wisconsin is the most winnable for Trump

(16:47):
because it has the cleanest voter roles.

Speaker 3 (16:49):
Wow, I did not know that, tell me. Yeah, just
so people are tracking Seth. I've told people this before
that in Pennsylvania, for example, with you, if there's an
electronic voter regie stration database, third party groups you know
that are that have political allegiances can gain access to
those databases. And if the voter rolls aren't clean, people die,

(17:10):
People move away the Democrats all they need, especially at
the height of COVID when it was simple, and there's
no deadline, no postmark requirement, no signature signature verification. Hell,
every first time voter in the state of Pennsylvania that
was voting via absentee or via mail in they didn't
submit a photocopy of their ID, which is required by law.
I mean, there were so many things in Pennsylvania that

(17:31):
happened that just that just were indicative of fraudulent votes.
But like, tell people how that works.

Speaker 1 (17:37):
They can.

Speaker 3 (17:37):
All you need is, you know, two people, a printer,
a ballot, and a secrecy envelope, and you can vote
for people, which is why so many people showed up
on election day and being told they were told that
they already voted.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
You know.

Speaker 2 (17:50):
Well, so Number one, ballot harvesting in Pennsylvania, I believe
that falls more in a gray area than a straight
up illegality. But in a number of states ballot harvesting
is one hundred percent illegal. Georgia a great example. It's
not legal. But and now two thousand mules. I don't
swear by two thousand mules. There are some issues with
two thousand mules, but it is fact that they've got
video footage of people showing up at drop boxes with

(18:11):
massive stacks of ballots and handing it into the drought
box and turning around like a quarterback about to make
a handoff and dropping gloves off in a garbage camp
like they've been there multiple times. So some of these
canvassers we've gotten in states like so Tony Schupin aughtit
the vote, Pa. She's fantastic, right, you got people all
over Wisconsin. Some of the Wisconsin election integrity groups they

(18:33):
did canvassing and they went to Madison, Wisconsin, Dane County,
which is one of their heartbeats. If the Democrats have
a hope in Wisconsin and they're finding apartment buildings with
twenty one, twenty three, twenty six voter registrations per unit,
I mean we're talking about massive if. I mean, I
don't think anybody's got family units that are that big
in Wisconsin. But we've got twenty thirty people registered in

(18:56):
each unit. Because what happens is they live there and
they never clean out. They never they ever removed themselves
from a voter role. The only way we're gonna get
around the voter role corruption problem is to go North Dakota.
North Dakota is the only state without voter registration, and
by my measurements of the twenty twenty election easily had
the cleanest election of all fifty states, with fewer new
votes cast in twenty twenty than in twenty sixteen.

Speaker 1 (19:19):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
Meanwhile, the rest of the country had this massive turnout
boom which was artificial because of the corruption of voter registration.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
God.

Speaker 3 (19:27):
So, okay, so in twenty twenty, that's what you think
that the Democrats? Did you think that it was all
voter registrartion? I mean, I agree with you, but is
that what you think?

Speaker 2 (19:38):
That is a multi prompt problem. You've heard a lot
of the people with the theories about the voting systems,
electronic voting systems and software. So I don't miss the
news has just.

Speaker 3 (19:47):
Came out with Jocelyn Benson and Mission of Jess yesterday
we talked about the show with Dominion. That issue happened
in twenty twenty as well, but it's just coming out
today as if it's a new thing.

Speaker 2 (19:57):
Then they're setting the stage for when Trump wins the
election to delegitimize this victory. In my opinion, but how
is the fraud happening? Number One, The foundation of it's
in the roles, there's manual blocking and tackling for cheating,
which is the mail in scheme and the ballot harvesting.
So I think that relies on known corrupt counties where
you know for a fact that these folks are Soros funded.

(20:19):
These are absolutely corrupt human beings, like the Milwaukee elections
officials that have femail traffic about their election stuff. I
think that they're outsourcing shopping the list of available voter
registrations that aren't going to be shown up and claimed
by a real human being, where you've got ten thousand
of these names that are not real people, but we

(20:39):
can generate or request a ballot for these ten thousand people.
So what happens is you request Seth Keshel's ballot. I'm
going to show up as a four to four voter
wanting to vote, and you're going to have me already voted,
and I'm going to raise holy hell about that. So
you don't want to get caught. But when you have
ten thousand people out of a million registrations that can't vote,
but they're still in the roles and they're coded and

(21:00):
you can find them, then someone can shop those registrations
out and what's happening. And this is why I know
this is because I read between the lines. I don't
trust much that the agencies do. But the FBI has
busted a few voter fraud rings. They will not touch
a presidential, a gubernatorial, a congressional, or a Senate race, okay,
but they go after some of these small fries like

(21:22):
somebody say, why, uh, I think to show that there's
a modicum of diligence, and hey, we we checked it out.
We found fraud here. But no, there was no fraud
in the presidential race. What they've been busting is Democrats
cheating against other Democrats and Democrat primaries. And there's two
states that.

Speaker 1 (21:38):
Are I have seen this too, Yes, its Connecticut.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
And New Jersey. So in Paterson, New Jersey. The FBI
investigated some of this stuff and I sourced it one
of my substack articles because the investigation was interesting. Maybe
they found a field agent who actually cared. And what
they found was there's there's one dude. So basically he's
a political consultant. And you obvious, if you were to
run for office again, you would have ten people in

(22:03):
your inbox wanting to get you to get your campaign
to buy their slight and you know them by name.
You're going to have the regulars and then maybe a
few upstarts that want your business. So what happens is
one of these guys who's a you know, somebody that
can do all things for the campaign. He can go
get the names that are on these lists and then

(22:24):
go collect a ballot for them and swear on a
written form that he's getting the ballot for them and
taking it to them, And then he buys the ballot
from that person, and then he gets a hundred of
those and casts it as he wants. And in some
of these races where there's not big turnout, you can
swing a race on one hundred and fifty or two
hundred fake ballots. Now imagine you've got twenty people that

(22:45):
are doing that. Then you can get two thousand fake
ballots in a county and a lot of my numbers
in Pennsylvania, So like Alleghany County likely has the most
fake ballots of any county in Pennsylvania.

Speaker 3 (22:56):
So, guests, Seth, you and I haven't discussed this prior
to the show, but it's I'm interesting that you say
that because when I talked to people, people talk about
Philly and yeah, Philly, Philly's bad. You talk to people
in Philly, I'm like, you ask someone straight up on
the street, is their voter fraud in Philly, They're like, man, it's.

Speaker 1 (23:12):
Philadelphia, Like, of course there is.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
But Pittsburgh, Alleghany County was worse than twenty twenty big time.

Speaker 2 (23:19):
My estimate for Alleghany County was likely forty eight thousand
minimum fraudulent ballots in Allegheny County. And most of that
was not in the core of deep urban Pittsburgh. Who
was out in the in the more conservative.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
Work, Yeah, that was in my district.

Speaker 3 (23:33):
Like, I had eighty five percent of Alleghany County outside
the city.

Speaker 2 (23:36):
So you were a desired target. Donald Trump was the
number one target in the state.

Speaker 3 (23:40):
Were well, yeah, yes, at PA seventeen. And but this
was before they they jerrymandered the district into the new
PA seventeen. But PA seventeen back then, Seth had eighty
five percent of Alleghany County outside of the city of Pittsburgh,
all of Beaver County, in a small portion of Butler County,
and that was the I was ground zero for all

(24:00):
of that. This was the county that uh where the
Democrats sent out thirty thousand ballots a month before election
day and President Trump was calling it out to wrong addresses.
The Democrats are saying, count every ballot, even the ballots
that were cast outside the district. I mean, it was
absolutely insane. And I witnessed this stuff with my own
two eyes. And that's why I say to people said

(24:21):
that I'll never be gas lit into believing anything else.
That they one hundred percent stole the twenty twenty election,
and no one will convince me otherwise because I saw it.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
I was there, right, So Butler County. I'm sure most
of your listeners probably know Butler County as well.

Speaker 1 (24:33):
Oh yeah, yes, yes.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
When Trump survived the assassination attempt, So Butler.

Speaker 1 (24:38):
I was there as well. Seth. That was with President
Trump twenty minutes before.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yet I saw that he's that ridiculous. You played that,
you played the role of a hero. I remember that.
That's all that wasn't supposed to be doing well, thank you, jeez.
Butler County is just due north of Alleghany and Pittsburgh,
and so I mapped every preseat in Pennsylvania of all
sixty seven counties for an estimate of like the fraudulent
activity in the twenty twenty race, because I think it

(25:02):
matters still. But this was my map of Butler County,
all right, So just so you know, Pittsburgh is right
below where this is, and it looks to me like
harvesters made their way into Butler County and got this corner,
the southwest corner, which is like the Cranberry area.

Speaker 1 (25:21):
That's right in that I lived just north of there.

Speaker 2 (25:23):
And the further you go up into the hinter lands,
then the cleaner the trends get, meaning the vote totals
aligned with past trends and voter registration trends. But people
did not get out there as far.

Speaker 3 (25:33):
Seth that it's so crazy. But that red portion back then,
this is insane. You and I did not coordinate any
of this at all. But that red portion on the
map that you just showed was the small bit of
Butler from PA seventeen. That was just the Butler County
that was in my district.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
This is probably your portion of Beaver County right closest
to Pittsburgh.

Speaker 3 (25:56):
Yes, that's all of it, Yes, I have all of
I've got all of Beaver County.

Speaker 2 (26:01):
Right so Beaver County. That's where that's where Tony actually lives.

Speaker 1 (26:04):
But this was back then.

Speaker 3 (26:06):
By the way, this was like when this is when
like because they they jerrymandered the district and made it
more favorable for Democrats. This was back in twenty twenty.
But yes, it was insane what was going on back then.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
So I'm one, I am telling you, I am, I am.
This is why the media calls me one of the
four horsemen of the election denial of Popably.

Speaker 1 (26:23):
That's a pretty you should incorporate that into your branding.

Speaker 2 (26:27):
A founding father of the election denial movement every pre
scene in Pennsylvania. And of course this is a zoomable
PDF file.

Speaker 1 (26:38):
That's pretty amazing. Man.

Speaker 3 (26:39):
See, folks, this is why we have military intelligence data
guys on this show that can bring the receipts. And
what's crazy is that you just heard Seth go through
the facts and I was there on the ground and
I lived them, and that's exactly what happened.

Speaker 1 (26:53):
That's one hundred percent what happened.

Speaker 2 (26:55):
So my theory is that the corrupt counties are direct
participants in this where I think they're probably shopping voter lists.
I think that they're extending hours as need be. I
think they're ignoring rules and laws basically like the rick
flares of the election game. All right, and then you've
got the other counties, your Bradford's and your Armstrongs, that

(27:15):
are not corrupt counties. But because of the way the
law is structured and the exploitation of it, you know,
like good example, I can drive down the street I
live on and probably get away with ripping up campaign
signs I don't like. Now that's against the law, but
if I can't be caught, then it's going to get
ripped up. So it's very hard for sheriffs to patrol

(27:35):
a county with you know how Pennsylvania set up.

Speaker 1 (27:38):
It's old, right, and that's exactly right.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
Yeah, You've got roads set up in every different direction
coming off and it takes twenty minutes to get a
few miles through the woods, depending what the weather's doing.
So it's very hard to police all this stuff up.
And those kind of counties that are not corrupt counties
are still open four hundreds or thousands of MAX ballots. Now,
what the twenty twenty election does allow me to anticipate
is I do not believe in most of these Trump

(28:02):
counties in Pennsylvania, the smaller ones. I don't believe that
Harris can possibly exceed Joe Biden's vote count in those counties.
I think that whatever Biden's count was is the absolute
lid for Democrat votes in this election and certainly below.
So it helps me to forecast because I don't think
they have the ability, based on the current mail trends

(28:23):
and the turnout rates and the registration data, to exceed
Biden's vote counts in those counties.

Speaker 3 (28:27):
Which so let's stay stay right there, let me take
a quick break, let me get two more sponsorship breeds,
and then I want to I want to shift to
this cycle and the battlegrounds, and we can start with Pennsylvania,
if that's cool, since we're already there, got it all right?
Stay right there, Seth. I'll be right back back with
Seth Keshell. Former Army captain same rank as me, veteran

(28:48):
of the Afghan War and one of the four Horsemen
of what was the title, Seth four Horsemen.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
One of the four horsemen of the Election denial Apocalypse
or original gangster founding father of the election denial.

Speaker 3 (29:02):
That if you that should be front and center on
all of your branding because it's just so freaking great.
All right, So let's let's shift gears to twenty twenty four.
We talked a little bit about the polling yesterday of
these battleground states, and.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
So we're on Pennsylvania. Let's talk about Pennsylvania.

Speaker 3 (29:19):
You you said it's gonna be hard for Kamala to
exceed Biden's cap and what's a better way to say it,
to exceed Biden's vote.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
Count in a lot of these Pennsylvania counties. Why do
you think that is?

Speaker 2 (29:34):
All right? So if you look at the data in
two thousand and eight, oh, it's an important year for
understanding the political situation in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania was a reliable
Democrat state, but without fantastic margins and James Carville's right,
James Carville's described the state as as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh

(29:56):
with Alabama in between. Right, So Pennsylvania is is not
a liberal state. People don't understand this. People that don't
travel and don't understand the political equation or the working
class dynamics of America have too often associated Blue Coast
with Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and now they may have bubbles. You know,
you might have Westchester, Pennsylvania, but Pittsburgh is not a

(30:18):
liberal place, neither are the surrounding areas. It may have
its bubbles and its core, but it's not a liberal state.
So as the wokeness has taken over the Democrats, and
not just the wokeness but the party. In two thousand
and eight to ten timeframe, Obama high pointed Pennsylvania with
a ten point four percent margin of victory and that
was the biggest margin for either party since nineteen sixty

(30:40):
four Linda Johnson National Landslide. And ever since then, the
state has been losing Democrats strength, and that started in
the twenty ten midterms. Around that time, the Democrats began
openly being portrayed as anti industry, anti fossil fuels, anti
working class, and they lost white men. That showed up
in the vote totals in twenty twelve. Obama lost more

(31:01):
than three hundred thousand of his votes back in the
twenty twelve election. Romney's problem was he couldn't pick them
up off the ground like Donald Trump did. Romney only
shifted the Philly suburbs and got some of the interior
somewhat more red but his margin still was in half.
It was a five point four margin for Obama in
twenty twelve, so the trent was already on. And then
when Trump came on board, Republican membership actually serged and

(31:24):
Democrats continued to drop registrations, and that was signifying that
this is going to close inside of five points, and
Trump wound up flipping the state. Trump gained three hundred
thousand votes. Clinton continued to drop, and in twenty twenty
it was twenty one to one Republican Party registration edge.
For new registrations, it was two hundred and forty two
thousand new Republican registrations and the Dems only gained eleven thousand.

(31:46):
So all that signified that Trump should have expanded his
margins in Pennsylvania. I've come up with numbers over six points. Now,
it's hard to calculate exactly where that should have ballparked,
given the expanse and turnout, but Trump should have easily
held Pennsylvania in twenty twenty. And when I look at
these flyover counties in Pennsylvania, which is most of them,
Trump trended sixty four of sixty seven counties more Republican

(32:07):
in the last four years.

Speaker 1 (32:08):
That's exactly right.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
Oat Su County went to the right. So when you
look at it, let's just take Juniata County, or maybe
we could take Jefferson County. Those counties have a Biden
vote total that is higher than Hillary in twenty sixteen,
and in a lot of cases higher than Obama in
twenty twelve, but not at the two thousand and eight number.
So they weren't able to get back to the eight number.
But they did elevate from twelve and sixteen. That is

(32:31):
because many weeks and months of ballot harvesting and planning
and mail in ballots scams were put in place to
maximize Biden's vote totals in the extremely trumpy, almost Wyoming
like portions of Pennsylvania. I do not believe that based
on organic lack of appeal and based on electioneering, I
don't think Harris can reach those vote totals. In twenty

(32:52):
twenty four, Trump is going to consume more of the vote.
I don't think they'll be able to turn out as
many ballots ballots not so.

Speaker 3 (32:59):
I mean, you see that play out in the data
right now. I've been running this vote banking operation for
mail in ballots who built this infrastructure here and kind
of fighting the way the Democrats do, except for without
the cheating. But they only have a three hundred and
seventy nine thousand person mail in ballot firewall, which back
in twenty twenty, it's like it was like one point
one million.

Speaker 2 (33:20):
I am really only worried as far as margins slide goes.
I'm only worried about Montgomery and Delaware Counties, Philadelphia County.
Trump actually lost Philly County by less than he lost
it by in twenty sixteen. Now are they packing votes, yes,
because what we don't know one of our intel gaps
is how many of these votes are fraudulent and have
always been fraudulent for the last thirty years. I don't
know the answer. And so maybe they have a well

(33:42):
where they go to get half a million ballots right
off the bat, But they've they're down big time in
Philly County. I think they're missing ninety three mail in
requests based on this time last year, ninety three thousand,
I should say, So they're missing big in the urban centers.
They're also missing big time in Cora, Allegheny County. So
I think they're gonna be missing a lot of the
urban vote, a lot of the minority vote's going to
move towards Trump. Richard says that Trump's got eleven percent

(34:05):
of black women and more than a quarter of black men.
Then you have a not insignificant amount of the Hispanic
working class out East Berks County's a good example of that.
And I'd be shocked if he doesn't get a better
share of the white working class vote than he got
even in twenty sixteen, because I doubt Kamala Harris has
ever held a wrench or a hammer or warn a
hard hat, and she wants to be in fracking.

Speaker 1 (34:26):
That's exactly right. I mean, wow, So so.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
Pa smells like a poor man's Ohio to.

Speaker 3 (34:31):
Me, you just took the words out of my mouth.
I'm telling you seth Pennsylvania's elections. I'm talking the margin
of victory would be almost identical to Ohio if our
elections were as secure as Ohio.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
I think you've got a little bit of a left
skew because I think your urban areas are a little
bit more troublesome than Ohio's. But I do see like Pennsylvania.
When I run the numbers, I ran a pessimistic forecast
where the Dems gained on a lot of their margins
in twenty twenty and Trump still won by a point
seventy five thousand votes. But in my registration based forecast,
I get numbers like you're seeing come out of the

(35:04):
big posters today. I've got about four and a half points.

Speaker 3 (35:07):
Yeah, Echelon Echelon Insights had Pennsylvania Trump plus six. I
mean an atlas who who people like to say on
social media is the most accurate poster at twenty twenty
has Pennsylvania just today in their final poll of Trump
plus one.

Speaker 2 (35:22):
Yeah, well it was actually one and a half before
the rounding. But I think that some people are kind
of hedging and maybe even accounting for the cheap machine.
I don't I personally don't think Josh Shapiro wants Harris
to win Pennsylvania.

Speaker 3 (35:33):
I say this all the time. I completely agree. I mean,
the guy doesn't want to have to wait eight years
to be president.

Speaker 2 (35:39):
So most people are going to say, well, how can you,
how can the governor do anything about that? It is easy? Well,
he has his own personal ballot collection.

Speaker 1 (35:46):
Network, absolutely absolutely of.

Speaker 2 (35:49):
People that he knows that that work closely with him,
and then he could just order Philly and Pittsburgh to
run a tight ship and guess what, It's an automatic
Trump win. Same thing with Michigan.

Speaker 3 (35:59):
Happy, Okay, So okay, So take us to Michigan. Tell
us about the early vote numbers there.

Speaker 2 (36:03):
All right, First and foremost, we don't have a lot
of early voting data off of Michigan. They just expanded
early votes to the whole state this week, I believe,
is the first time they've done it. From what I've
read anecdotally, very similar vibes as most of the other
places where it's just massive Trump counties are dwarfing urban
county turnout, like Oakland County, McComb County, Wayne County, Michigan.

(36:25):
Of all that I consider, there'll be eight battlegrounds this year,
and seven of them are in my decisive states, and
one of them is North Carolina. I don't call it
a decisive because I've got it baked in for Trump.
It's decisive if she were to get it, for sure.
But Michigan is the most corrupt battleground state we have.
And here's why. It's because eighty three and a half
percent of the total population, including miners, not miners like

(36:48):
you have in Pennsylvania, but miners under the age of
eighteen and eighty three and a half percent of the
population is registered to vote. Right, So seventy seven percent
of any state's population is over the age of eighteen
and therefore old enough to vote. So there's your math,
right there is it's got six and a half percent
more of the population register than is even eighteen years old.

(37:08):
And that's before we deduct people who are not eligible
to vote who are of age. That means you've got
that possible automatic voter registration, lack of voter role maintenance,
and the facilitation of this by an extremely corrupt trio
of women that run that state. And so Michigan is
the worst of all these battleground states. Now, I do
believe if Trump runs with the election, if he grabs

(37:31):
up the quickest three states to the election for Trump
or North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Bambaia.

Speaker 3 (37:35):
And by the way, I don't think Whitmer wants Comma either.
She wants to be run for president as well.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
I don't either. So Michigan sits on average, and Trump's
two elections, Michigan is averaged fifty three thousand votes left
of Pennsylvania. So if Trump does grab paight.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
How do you know this stuff? Man? Where do you get.

Speaker 2 (37:52):
I'm one of the founding fathers of the Elections Denile
movement kind of stuff that I do. But I've got
all this stuff in graphics. I've just memorized it same
way I used to pick up baseball cards and read
the back of the stats, and that's how I got
good at baseball status. So Michigan, and you were an.

Speaker 3 (38:07):
Army intel guy, were you like a Savage S two
for some battalion, like educating knuckleback?

Speaker 2 (38:13):
I was the S two and assistant S two of
an aviation task force and then eventually in a striker
brigade in Alaska. So I sorry, I had a steep
learning curve. I've really had to learn how to get
more direct with That's why I told you before we
did this, you need to lead the questions because I
can roam with this. But Michigan, Michigan sits fifty three

(38:34):
thousand left of Pennsylvania on average and two Trump races,
So Trump at two hundred thousand plus and Pa isn't
gonna jive with Michigan going the other way. So I
don't know that the effort to steal Michigan will be
very intense if Trump runs off with the East coast,
North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But Michigan is absolutely filthy.
Pennsylvania has about sixty eight percent of its population register

(38:57):
and Wisconsin only fifty eight.

Speaker 3 (39:01):
Geez okay, So you think, so, what's the So what
does Michigan look like for Trump?

Speaker 1 (39:07):
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (39:08):
Well, if I've got Pennsylvania ballparking four, then Michigan looks
like two and a half to three and a half.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Points, Holy smoke. So you really.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
Yeah, Michigan has been left of Pennsylvania in every election
since ninety two. Now they do have a bigger they
have more white working class voters. There's also some very
notable coalition shifting, as Rich would call it, going on.
You got the Arab voters.

Speaker 1 (39:32):
Down there in the south, right right, right right, Well.

Speaker 2 (39:34):
They're only two to three percent of the vote, but
the minority drift is very real. Latino votes not much
of a thing there in Michigan, but they've got a
big black vote in the southeast. And if it doesn't
come out and then the other minorities change sides at
a bigger rate, and then the white working class moves
back to the right. There's not really a way that
she can carry the state. And once again, I think
that she's capped. I don't think that she'll be able

(39:55):
to match Biden's vote totals and a lot of the
flyover portions of the state.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
Seth, do you think that some of this and Rich
and I have talked about this before, but the Democrats
just I don't know that. Look, they have unlimited money,
they can buy volunteers if need be, but like they
haven't developed over the last couple of cycles the muscle
memory to physically turn people out, and the way that
some of the trends are going in early vote, it

(40:21):
means because they're not getting as many early votes or
banked mail in votes that they did in twenty twenty,
they're gonna have to physically turn out those people. Now
that is possible, but I feel like it's a heavier
lift for Democrats than it is for Republicans.

Speaker 2 (40:36):
People are worried about the election day cannibalization of the
Republican vote. I'm not I think that we've created these
boxes for ourselves because we suffered under so many terrible
Republican figure hits, and really like Trump had a very
standard Republican vote total in twenty sixteen. He got the
votes in the right states to win the electoral College.
He actually ran weaker in Texas, Georgia and Arizona, ran

(41:00):
stronger in the rest Belt, and then we have twenty twenty.
Trump has an enormous vote game. So here's another one
for you, twenty twenty buffs. In twenty twenty, Donald Trump
gained eleven million votes from his previous election, which made
him the first incombent president to gain votes and not
be re elected since eighteen eighty eight, when Grover Cleveland
gained votes from eighteen eighty four. So, of course that
was the safest and most secure election of all time.

(41:22):
But Trump still got us eleven million new votes, which
just doesn't work with what Biden came in at. But
Trump is blowing up records at at an amazing pace.
The Democrats are consuming more of their three out of
four and four out of four voters than we are
almost everywhere. The Republicans continue to expand margins of early
voting in Arizona and Nevada. Florida is almost r plus

(41:42):
twelve right now. In early vote it was d plus
one last time before election day, all right, So Florida
is blowing up like crazy, which trends almost always with
Pennsylvania and Michigan. So I think that when you analyze
the question of how does all this pour ten the
early voting pertend for the Democrats, they're creatored in the
urban areas, in the inner cities. And it doesn't make

(42:04):
sense to my logical mind that Joe Biden's gonna have
eighty one million ballots in twenty twenty and it was
done primarily by not voting on election Day. It was
voting by mail, voting, early ballot harvesting to whatever, and
they didn't vote on election day. Somebody told me that
Trump won election day voting in Hawaii seventy thirty Hawaii.

(42:26):
So election day is massively Republican. And I just saw
a poll today that says Trump should win Election Day
in Pennsylvania by nineteen points. And when we look at
that and we stretch it out, why would they wait
in the very next election after getting eighty one million ballots?
Why would they start suddenly become the in person on
election day party?

Speaker 3 (42:45):
I completely agree with you I mean seth, I tell
people on the show, I am I'm not a doomer.
I love being in the data. I don't see any
warning signs in the data. In fact, we've been we're
in a stronger position now than we've ever had, we
ever have been, but having had an election stolen completely
from me, I still worry that the Democrats are going
to pull the rug out in front, out from underneath

(43:07):
a somehow. But it's just I don't see any flashing
red lights, do you.

Speaker 2 (43:13):
Well, That's why I'm I'm somewhat reserved in my writing,
so when people really want my official statement, it's on
my substack. In today's article, I talk about astros. Roger
Maris had an ASTSK when he hit sixty one home runs,
Barry Bonds has one, and all of my predictions are
they are astros. When it's like, hey, this is my
prediction if and only if we have a modestly fair election,

(43:36):
because there's some results that are so far off of
reality in twenty twenty it's not even funny. Now here's
what I will say. Trump had the votes in twenty twenty,
he did not have command of the narrative, which is
why that result wound up standing up even though we
had valid complaints about election fraud. One of the problems
with the election challenges and courts is in most states
they make you find specifically, you know, if Carrie Late

(43:58):
lost by ten thousand or seventeen one hundred and seventeen votes,
then we need seventeen one hundred and eighteen votes given
to us, which you know are fraudulent, or we won't
rule on it. So you know, they threw all these
marvels all across the kitchen floor, you know, and mom
went chasing them up under the fridge and under the
tables and everything else, and the kids ran off right,
And that's what happened with the votes. But we are

(44:20):
we are at this point where if they don't have
the narrative this time Trump has it, they don't have
the quantity of mail in votes in Georgia, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania out to replicate exactly what happened in twenty twenty,
which is, all right, we see what Trump has pause,
all right, and we're gonna count all these mail in
votes that we had on the front end. So if

(44:40):
the election were to take a turn like it did
in twenty twenty, it will not be the half back
dive up the middle until we get it into the
end zone. It's gonna have to be something off the
back end or something that we've never seen before that
has to do with software. Which I don't want to
go too far to this and demoralize people, but it
smells like narratives are being planted to blame another country
for intruding in our election, or to blame Trump or

(45:02):
plant evidence against Trump that he cheated the election. Therefore,
if he goes in, then he must have done so illegitimately,
and he lacks the mandate that he might get in
at the polls.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
I mean, listen, listen.

Speaker 3 (45:13):
Jamie Raskin has already said this in an interview publicly
that even if Trump wins, they're going to do everything
they can to prevent him from being inaugurated. He said
this in live interviews, and I've said on the show
many times, I think the most dangerous time in American history,
certainly during my life, is if Trump wins from November
sixth to January twenty first, what happens during that time period,

(45:35):
Because it's not a stretch of the imagination to say
said that the Democrats They've already accused Trump of being
an illegitimate president. They've already impeached him on bogus charges
or voted to impeach him on bogus charges in the
House twice. They're trying to throw the guy in prison
for the rest of his life based on bogus charges.
Is it really a stretch to say, oh, there's foreign
election interference, Trump cheated. Of course, that's the next logical step.

Speaker 2 (45:59):
I mean, well, that was really the crux of Russia
Gate years ago, and where well, there's foreign interference, and
that's what they did, you know. And what they've done
is they spent all these years blasting veterans and not
just veterans, but I mean most of the people I've
worked with elections or people that want to be left
alone and raise their families. That's what they are. Tony
is one of these people. And they defame you, blast

(46:20):
you for simply speaking out. Like the country itself was
founded on the precept that we cannot trust the government.
We don't trust government, and the founders were like, hey,
we got to have a government because men are not angels,
but don't trust the government. So somehow we wound up
with an election system in which the government runs the
test on which they are retained or not retained, which

(46:41):
I can't. I think that if we were to fashion
humanity as if the Starship Troopers novel were to be real,
that somebody would probably call out how stupid it was
that previous civilizations allowed the government to run the elections.

Speaker 1 (46:54):
Yes, that's a great point. Actually, it really.

Speaker 2 (46:58):
Is what are we doing? Like you want the fox
to guard the hen house? You literally set it up
to where we're gonna go tell the fox not to
go mess with the hens. When we're gone, government, here's
your votes, we want you gone. Okay, well let's process them.
We got early voting. Uh, we don't have to report
our results for thirteen days, and we'll let you know
if you fired us and put us out of work.

Speaker 1 (47:18):
That's fascinating to me. I think that's a fascinating point.

Speaker 2 (47:23):
It doesn't make sense to me that anybody would not
be an election denier.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
Yeah, yeah, I completely agree. The Democrats are every single
cycle set every single time that they lose, they deny
that they lost every single time. Seth, What do you
think about what do you think about Nevada right now?
Nevada's kind of been elusive for Republicans. We've lost lost

(47:48):
it for the past couple of cycles, but it looks
like the early vote numbers are extraordinary for us.

Speaker 2 (47:53):
Well, I think the ship, I think that Harris's ship
in Nevada has sailed. I don't. I don't really, I
don't think the jew this is going to be worth
the squeeze for her to even pursue it anymore. In
most of my scenarios, Nevada is not the state that
wins Trump the presidency. Now where could it potentially win
Trump the presidency. It's if Trump wins wins Pennsylvania, loses Georgia,

(48:17):
and then wins Arizona and Nevada, that would win Trump
the presidency. But other than that, you know, to make
Nevada part of the winning hand, you're gonna have to
get to the situation where Trump gets Georgia, can't carry
Pennsylvania or Michigan, and has to win one of Arizona
or in Wisconsin, and then pair up Nevada with New Hampshire,
which is a real reach. But so Nevada, seven out

(48:38):
of eight votes come from two counties they override the
other fifteen county equivalents that are overwhelmingly Trump counties. The
problem with those fifteen those fifteen counties is they're pretty
much maxed out where we can't really ring that cloth
a lot more. I think there are maybe ten thousand
more margin stuck in those counties for Trump, So you
have to do the heavy lifting in Clark and Washoe,
and that's exactly what he's done. The Dems lost a

(49:00):
ton of their voter registration advantages down below fifteen thousand
now heading into the election, and Trump has run about
forty or fifty thousand to the right of the registration
advantage in every one of his races so far. In Nevada,
the independent vote leans right, a lot of the working
class de vote leans to the right, kind of like Pa,
and he's going to pull Latino vote way bigger than
he did last time. I really don't think the numbers

(49:22):
are there. The GOP's got to lead over forty thousand,
just for perspective, four years ago, the DEM lead was
forty plus thousand, So that's a swing of eighty some
one thousand votes in the state decided by thirty three
thousand ballots. So I don't think that it's going to
be worth the effort, given her her obvious vulnerabilities in
Georgia and Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. So I think

(49:42):
that it's kind of going to rot on the vine
for them, and Trump is going to carry Nevada by default.

Speaker 1 (49:46):
Wow, So what about what about Arizona.

Speaker 2 (49:48):
Well, here's here's a factoid for you. This is why
I'm your Swiss Army knife of election mccaunics. So do
you do any of that sports betting? Of course, yeah,
because Richard likes Barnes a lot.

Speaker 1 (50:00):
I used to.

Speaker 2 (50:02):
Do DraftKings and FanDuel a little bit because I love baseball.
But for some reason, oddly enough, my luck never worked
out for me to stay with it long enough. But
there's a term in that kind of industry called the
chalk chalk, the chalk pick. Now, what the chalk pick
is I may not feel like playing Mike Trout in
my lineup today because I've got a vibe that he's
you know, he's been hurt or something like that. But

(50:24):
the stats say that this guy kills left handed pitchers,
so you should play him because if you pick him
enough times against lefties, he is going to deliver x
amount of points. It's kind of like stock picks. So
the chalk pick on the history of Nevada in Arizona
is that if Nevada is going Republican, then Arizona's going
Republican because we've never had an election where Nevada voted

(50:46):
for the Republican for president and Arizona voted for the Democrat.
It's never happened. And Arizona's been a state since nineteen twelve.
So my gut is, with one hundred and twelve years
of information informing my decision that if Nevada goes Republican,
then Arizona will too.

Speaker 1 (51:00):
Good lord man, you are one of the four horsemen.

Speaker 2 (51:05):
You really are, basically the guy at the end of
the level where the election affirmers come back and on
the end of level boss there.

Speaker 1 (51:13):
All right, So what about Georgia?

Speaker 2 (51:15):
All right? So where are we at? We've got We've
got Nevada and Arizona.

Speaker 3 (51:19):
Yeah, we went to Nevada Arizona. Now we're Georgia, all right.

Speaker 2 (51:23):
So Georgia pairs up with Duval County in Florida. Duval
County is Jacksonville Metro. Now Georgia doesn't register voters by party.
When I started running my analysis on Georgia, I was
thinking I was gonna compe it with nearby North Carolina,
and I started running the numbers, and the states are
kind of in two different directions where I think they're
both gonna run right this year. But for the first

(51:45):
time since eighty eight, North Carolina voted to the right
of Georgia in the last election, and that was probably legitimate,
even when we deduct all the fraudulent ballots. So Georgia
is a little bit tough. It's filling up with a
lot of the educated white class, so the white Republican
vote isn't as strong as it was, and the black
vote is the dominant opposing political force. And there's another
fifteen percent or so others, including a Latino vote. But

(52:09):
Georgia is a state where you're gonna have to do
better with a black mail vote, and that's Trump's bread
and butter. And Duval County, Florida does register by party
with the rest of the state of Florida, and it's
four points more Republican than it was in twenty twenty
when Trump supposedly lost Duval. Duval and Georgia have moved
together and almost by the same exact amounts since two
thousand and four.

Speaker 1 (52:29):
There said this yesterday.

Speaker 2 (52:30):
Yeah, they were big from they were big for Bush
and O four, then they were for McCain but tighter
in eight. Then they were bigger for Romney and twelve,
they were for Trump but tighter in sixteen, and then
they flipped against Trump and twenty twenty. So Duval's movement
and Douval turnout right now, Florida turnout is off the charts.
Douval turnout right now is R plus three and a
half even though it's a D plus two county, so

(52:52):
it's in overdrive for the Republican Party. Even with the
shift already in play, Trump looks like he's going to
carry Duval comfortably, and that pairs up. If I've got Trump,
would duvall at two and a half points, which is
conservative estimate, then Georgia's at Trump plus five point six,
So I do expect Trump to get Georgia fairly comfortably,
probably not by Suburbia Republican margins. But the early vote

(53:14):
totals also look promising, where most of the high high
high turnout counties right now are not just Trump counties,
but they're like the Crimson eighty percent or Trump counties
and most of the urban areas with a lot of
the black vote are lagging the total state share of
the twenty twenty vote.

Speaker 1 (53:31):
Holy smokes, Okay, North Carolina.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
North Carolina. I think that unofficially Harris has probably abandoned
North Carolina. The polls I do understand. I don't know
why this is. I can tell you why it is
in Wisconsin, but I think polling in North Carolina's difficult,
probably because a lot of the more conservative regions have
less responsive voters. But North Carolina is only It's only

(53:55):
D plus one point four. It was D plus nine
and a half when Trump won it the first time.
It was D plus five point three when Trump won
it again, but with a very tight margin thanks to
the mail election, And this time we've got ninety seven
out of one hundred counties are more Republican than they
were in twenty twenty. It looks to me like Core Charlotte,
Core Raley are not getting the turnout that they need

(54:15):
to get that massive black vote at the urban core.
And if they don't max out Charlotte and Raleigh, they
cannot win North Carolina. My studies on North Carolina suggest
that Harris's ceiling in the absolute best case would be
about twenty nine thousand votes above. I don't think they're
going to hit the thresholds to do that. So North Carolina,
I ran the registration analysis. It looks like Trump plus six.

Speaker 1 (54:38):
God, I mean, you think this plays out on election day?

Speaker 2 (54:41):
Well, if it's Trump plus six, and even does half
of that's Trump plus three, it definitely should be. It
should be Trump plus four or more.

Speaker 3 (54:49):
I would say, all right, So what about I want
to ask about Wisconsin. Because we talked about Pennsylvania, we
talked about Michigan. We kind of skipped over Wisconsin. But
you said Wisconsin as the cleanest voter rolls. What do
you think about Wisconsin.

Speaker 2 (55:02):
I feel really good about Wisconsin. And the reason I
do is because I studied Iowa. Iowa has moved from
R plus one to R plus ten in the last
four years, and some of that is just a rearrangement
of the deck chairs, you know, like Pennsylvania is another example,
whereas it's only D plus three point one. But as
that change in party registration accelerates the impact of it
flattens out a little bit because people formally will change

(55:24):
their party registration. So Iowa may not give you a
nine point swing because of the party registration, but it's
definitely showing you all ninety nine counties in Iowa are
on a Republican trend, including the urban ones and including
the ones along the banks of the Mississippi that parallel Wisconsin,
in those southwestern working class counties that Trump flipped in
order to flip the state and should have held the
state in twenty twenty. Most important thing to know about

(55:47):
Wisconsin is there's really only two counties to really watch
out for in the state, and that's Dane County, home
of Madison and the University of Wisconsin. Extremely liberal white
people there. And then you have Milwaukee, which is your
standard urban wreck that Trump can probably pick up major
margin in with the Latino and black populations. Milwaukee County's
voter role is substantially reduced from its size in twenty twenty.

(56:11):
Last time I checked, it's nine percent smaller than it
was in twenty twenty, So that's a lot fewer ballots
that can be harvested, and the turnout in the inner
wards of Milwaukee is garbage right now. So it looks
to me like if Iowa is on a right trend.
Wisconsin will mirror that like it almost always does. And
the two have never been more than nine point eight
percent apart since nineteen sixty in any direction. So Trump

(56:32):
plus ten in Iowa is going to bring you a
Wisconsin result too.

Speaker 3 (56:37):
Okay, that's uh, that's staggering to me. Okay, Uh, I
got a couple like just one last. Well, I've got
a couple last questions for you. What about some of
these states that are blue but look like they could
be Trump?

Speaker 1 (56:50):
What about say New Jersey.

Speaker 2 (56:53):
Now there's four states that are in July that I
pegged as leaners, And my definition of leaner is anything
it's going to be likely won by either candidate but
less than ten points. So I would call two Trump
leaners North Carolina and Texas. Now Texas looks like it's
probably a clear ten at this rate, but I had
both of those as Trump leaners where I'm confident Trump
will win but less than ten points. And then I

(57:14):
put four states full state, so I split the one
vote from Nebraska, and then I split statewide main for Harris.
But four Harris leaners were New Mexico, New Hampshire, or sorry,
New Mexico, Virginia, and Minnesota, and I wound up with
New Hampshire over in the battle in the decisive states
because of its propensity to put Trump in there on

(57:35):
a Hail Mary. But just recently the Trump campaign announced
rallies in most of those an interest in all of them.
So it looks to me like I was correct. So
I have Virginia and Minnesota tentatively ballparked at three to
five points. Dim that's just my ballpark setting. Now at
three points, were at a point where if election day

(57:55):
turnout is a monster for Republicans and things are worse
than we thought in the cities, then you could get
an upset. So we're in potential striking range on that.
New Hampshire is going to be probably one of the
tightest states in this race, and the voter.

Speaker 3 (58:09):
Has just moved a toss up calum today by I
think people.

Speaker 2 (58:12):
Thought it was crazy six weeks ago when I put
that up to people though I was nuts. But the
voter registration stats that state has moved from D plus
one to R plus four and a half in the
last four years, and of course that was because one
party got a lot of registrations perched but no, that
state typically it always votes to the It always votes
to the left of the GOPU registration advantage. And the

(58:33):
GOPU registration advantage is thirty nine thousand. Trump has set
thirty three thousand on average to the left of it.
So if the registration figures hold up, Trump has a
window to win by about five or six thousand votes.
But I do not see either candidate likely to win
that state by more than ten or fifteen thousand votes.
And that's based on six election cycles worth of data.

Speaker 1 (58:54):
So you are you sound pretty bullish on Trump right now?

Speaker 2 (58:58):
Well, it's an astrosk.

Speaker 3 (59:00):
And by the way, you're pretty frustrated with doomers as well.
It sounds like you know, like I don't.

Speaker 2 (59:05):
Doomerism is not the same as as realism, right he
learned that, Well, what do you do if you're a
military officer and you have a senior officer come up
to you and you don't tell him the bad news,
then the consequence is he may go on with a
mission plan that gets people killed.

Speaker 1 (59:22):
Absolutely, that's exactly right.

Speaker 2 (59:25):
So that was my direct duty. I was not a
combat arms officer. I was a staff officer. I was
an intelligence officer. So my function was to consider the
enemy activity, consider what our mission plan is, what tools
and resources and weapons do we have available, what's the daylight,
what's the illumination look like, what's the wind look like,
what's the soil type? So all that stuff bakes into

(59:46):
the mission plan, and my particular slice of that pie
was the intelligence picture. And I have to tell that
commander they've got this weapon system and we better not
go right here. That would be a mistake. And a
company commander it's different, it's a differ front side of
the spectrum. But that commander has to tell that. That
company commander has to tell his battalion commander when he's

(01:00:06):
got personnel issues that are going to affect the readiness
of his unit to go into combat. So when you
consider all this stuff, you know, like I would consider
it not dooming to tell people to stop creating stories
that don't work. So like the story in Michigan the
other day, the corruption issue in Michigan, right better stated

(01:00:27):
putting them on the spot to say why is there
this disconnect between this record and that, because that's what
it was. It's a transparency issue. Are you guys stuffing
votes virtually because when we pin ourselves to this, many
registrations cast this many fraudulent votes and we may not
be correct. And y'all don't even agree on the numbers.
That's a problem, all right. Or when we say that
the male and female vote split is troublesome, okay, have

(01:00:48):
we looked at the previous cycles, because it looks exactly
like it looked last time. In fact, the working class
states I just saw it right before we got on
the call, Wisconsin and Ohio. In North Carolina, they have
a much closer male to female split. So these working
classmen are getting out there right now. But the male
female vote split is simple. Minority males are not voting

(01:01:09):
in the numbers that they usually vote for in the
inner cities. The minority females are. And because of fewer
minority males voting, the male count goes down as a total,
and they're basically being backfilled by white women who, even
if they're forty percent Republican, is a better output for
the final vote than twenty percent Republican.

Speaker 1 (01:01:27):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (01:01:28):
And if Trump didn't think that the male vote was
going to come out, he wouldn't be in New Mexico
today and he would be going to the Penn State game.

Speaker 3 (01:01:36):
I mean, that's a great point. If you want to
watch where a candidate is politically, you know, get a
sense of where his priorities are. Watch what he says,
and watch where they go and where they spend money.
And you're right, Trump is doing rallies. I think he's
going to do something in New Hampshire. He's definitely doing
one in New Mexico. I think the Trump campaign sees

(01:01:58):
Minnesota even be within striking distance.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
I don't know. I you sound a lot more. I
don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:02:05):
I don't want to say confident. That that's not the
right word, and I'm not. I don't lack confidence. I'm
just used to getting punched in the face by the Democrats.

Speaker 2 (01:02:13):
That's all. And that's the hard part about it is
you don't want to demoralize people. You also don't, so
I don't. One of the reasons that none of the
stuff that they throw at Trump works is because they
cried wolf, like we are. The people that came before us,
even people that wrote stories had a lot of wisdom.
The boy that cried wolf. That's been the mainstream media
now for for the entirety of the Trump era, and

(01:02:34):
you know, where it used to be that people would
care that a comedian told a joke that offended a
group of people. Now this is just another this is
just another Thursday, you know. Or here's another accuser of
Donald Trump. Well this is the one of number fifty, right,
And she waited thirty one years and his third election
run to come out and tell this story. So now
it's actually a really good time to put your dirt

(01:02:56):
out there. You've been dragged through the mud, you know, right,
And and it was political and I I look at
this stuff like I grew up in Jackson, Mississippi, and
in the south side of Jackson, and I went to
a small private school. And back in those days, if
your family got on the nightly news for some reason,
like when my brother came back from Iraq, or you know,
you were on uh you know they showed a football highlight,

(01:03:17):
or your name was in the honor roll, like people,
Hey I saw you in the paper. Hey I saw
you on the news, almost like you're famous, Like if
you get a parade downtown. I got my own New
York Times hit piece written about me two weeks ago.
I'm talking. It wasn't like I was named in the
hit piece I'm talking about. It was literally my own
hit piece.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
I mean, this is this is.

Speaker 2 (01:03:39):
This is end of level boss stuff right there.

Speaker 1 (01:03:41):
Wait meet the election denial forcat.

Speaker 2 (01:03:44):
Wait, how did you get I'm sitting here in a
freaking shadow. I mean, come on, you know. So I
was in the New York Times and I was on
the cover of the business section in print that Saturday.
And I'm not not one person in my life or
in my military past or my professional career said hey, Seth,

(01:04:08):
I saw you on the cover of the Business section
of the New York Times. That's really crazy. The most
widely spread publication in the world. Nobody reads it anymore.

Speaker 3 (01:04:16):
That is a really interesting point. Good lord, that is crazy.

Speaker 2 (01:04:22):
Right. So that's why nothing sticks to Trump is because
something happens. I mean, nobody even talks about the guy
getting shot anymore.

Speaker 1 (01:04:28):
It's insane. I mean we talk about that all the time, Like.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
Trump getting shot. We had JD. Vans getting picture as
a VP. Then we had there were several major news
articles within days of him being shot, where within three
or four days it was like, oh yeah, Trump got shot.

Speaker 3 (01:04:43):
Holy smokes man, I Seth, you got to tell us
what kept you over time. But tell everybody that's watching
and listening how they can support you and where they
can find you.

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
Well, if people want to keep up my work, I'm
all over the place these days. I did think i'd
be using X much, but that's guess where the information
space is right now. My X and true social are
at real s Keshel. I'm on telegram Captain Keshel's twenty
twenty four election headquarters, and my substack is where I
go into long form deeper analysis, a different mode of

(01:05:15):
reading what I've got stuck in between my ears, and
that's Skeshel dot substack dot com right there in my window.
So that's where you can support me. I offer a
lot of free work on there. I also offer paid
articles and that has been good enough to keep me rolling.
Other than that, you know, you can support everybody by
making sure that you're getting everybody you know out to vote,
getting eyes and ears out there, using your phone when

(01:05:37):
you're in line at the polling centers, using your phone
when you're collecting stuff. Because now we have a lot
more power behind us thanks to X. And really, what
happened to Bucks County the other day within twenty four
hours was amazing the power of being able to put
these folks on blast.

Speaker 3 (01:05:51):
Absolutely, man, Seth, we got to have you back. Man,
You're fantastic. I think the audience loves you, man, and
I appreciate you being so generous with your time, my friend.

Speaker 2 (01:06:01):
All right, Sean, well, hey, great job out there. Thanks
for what you do. Thanks for what you do for
the representing the veterans community. You know a lot of
people took notice of your actions out there in Butler,
so keep being a light out there.

Speaker 1 (01:06:12):
Yeah. Thanks, brother, We'll see you soon.

Speaker 2 (01:06:14):
Copy that.

Speaker 1 (01:06:15):
All right, that is the great, Seth Cashal. I really listen.

Speaker 3 (01:06:18):
I try to bring you all some of the smartest
people around that are truth tellers, actually courageous truth tellers,
and man, that dude is smart. People in the live
chat saying bring Seth back, bring Seth back. Yeah, we're
gonna do that if Phil, if he will have us.
But yeah, man, he is fantastic. So hey, go support
his substack, go following him on X, do whatever you

(01:06:39):
can to help him out, because we've got to support
our people. We got to make sure that the good
people are supported so that they can remain independent. Make
sure you smash that like button, that little green thumb
beneath the video. All right, folks, thank you for tuning in.
We are five days from election day, and man, I
wish we had more time with Seth because I could

(01:07:01):
talk to him about this stuff for a long time.
Make sure look at gaming too long, first time ever
knowing of Seth. Well, listen, I'm really glad that to
have you all. Look at how the audience has grown.
Make sure you smash that like button. Always try to
get the four hundred likes before the show. We're so
close to it now, smash the like button. Don't forget
about official Sean Parnell. Support Seth Cashell in any way

(01:07:25):
that you can. Wholock, I see you in the live chat.
I know you're a new addition to the battle Crew,
but we're lucky that we're here. Cindy Wiser, Animal Dory,
Don Grandpaul, Myron, Mama, Bear Hockey, Love Wildlife Watch or Trinity.

Speaker 1 (01:07:39):
Listen, g I, Jenny, Hammerhead, Dory, you all have.

Speaker 3 (01:07:44):
You all are just the best audience in the world.
So many OG members of the battle Crew have been
with us since day one. Tomorrow, folks, do not forget
to be here. I know Fridays can be Typically they're
tough for people. Right people like to get their weekend
started a little bit early. But tomorrow we have Right
Night with Brian Dean Wright in the arena, also one

(01:08:06):
of the smartest dudes around. Look, I'm a knuckle dragger,
you know, That's who I am. That's how it's it's
who I am. It's it's it's it's who I've always been.
I try to surround myself with people that are a
hell of a lot smarter than me. Brian Dean Wright
is one of those people. Rich Barris is one of
these one of those people. Seth Cashall is one of
those people. But Right Night is tomorrow, So be here

(01:08:30):
live on Rumble at five pm Eastern Standard Time. In
the meantime, folks, God bless you all, keep the faith,
work your ass off, sprint to the finish. We have
a country to save. God bless you all, and God
bless this amazing country that we call home. Take care,
good night, and I will see you tomorrow night in battle.

Speaker 1 (01:08:51):
Crew, Take care

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