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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hey, everybody, Welcome to the Buck Brief. Aaron Parini, political
consultant extraordinaire, joins us right now to talk about the
debate which will be going on in the next twenty
four hours Trump Biden. Also some big race results that
are expected in the future and that have already happened
in Congress, in the Senate, you name it. But Aaron,
(00:40):
give everybody a little bit of your background, because I
like people to know who they're hearing from on this stuff.
You've been in this game at a high level for
a while.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I have been. I have been working in campaigns politics
on Capitol Hill for fifteen plus years now. I've worked
for the likes of Senator Ron Johnson, Senator Ted Cruz,
Senator John fun former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In twenty twenty,
I worked on the Trump reelect as director press Communications.
(01:10):
I worked at Never Back Down the Super Pac as
communications director, and now I am at Estuum Strategies as
a political consultant. So spent a lot of time on
Capitol Hill and campaigns and here I am all right, so.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
We got a big presidential debate coming up. How will
it matter in your mind in this election depending on
the likeliest outcomes, Like, what are your expectations for when
people wake up Friday morning? I know we haven't just
remons score, we haven't watched the debate yet, hasn't happened
yet as we're sitting here, What are your expectations for
(01:43):
if it's a good night for Trump? How and what
does that look like?
Speaker 1 (01:49):
If it's a good night for Donald Trump? He is steady, measured,
punching back in the way that he is so good
at in this really astute moment kind of in case
what he's given as a comment, and he can retort
very quickly, but that it's policy focused and not personality focused.
Were Donald Trump's personality that he can be the winning
(02:11):
factor is in those really great quick equips and retorts
when he gets the opportunity to speak, but not the
overly interjecting. That kind of personality is great. But when
you're looking at the sixty to ten Americans are are
saying right now to polsters, they plan on watching the debate.
If you have any persuadable margin that sits in there,
which I'm sure the majority of those folks might be.
(02:33):
When you look at that group, what are you telling them?
Message wise? For Donald Trump to win the night, he
needs to be forward looking on his economic agenda, and
he can say, and I did it before. He wants
to be forward looking on his immigration agenda, and I
did it before. But as much as he just touches back,
he's telling the people what he's going to be doing.
As a contrast, point to Joe Biden, do.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
You have any concerns that it's just effectively impossible for
Trump to get a fair enough I mean, there's no
such thing that's perfectly fair when you have a debate moderator.
To be clear, I mean I think that people whether
it's it's just like a referee of a sports event, right,
like people are going to get some calls right, some
calls wrong. People are going to be a little biased
one way or the other. But fair enough, I think
(03:16):
is what you can ask for, or the best you
can ask for in a presidential debate. Can he get
that with CNN or is that already out the window.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I'd like to believe he can get that with CNN,
this is a really big opportunity for the network itself
to show that when they've gone through this really rapid
evolution between the CEOs, Chrislicked and everybody else that's coming
and out, that they really have come more to the
center and have become less leaning. If Jake Tapper and
(03:46):
Dana Bash don't make themselves the news in this debate,
that for Donald Trump would be a win as well,
and would be as about a fair as shake as
he can get, because when they make themselves the story,
if they interject, if they try to do fact checking
in real time, which we've seen with CNN moderators in
the bat in the past. We want to go really
back to Candy Crowley when she tried to correct Romney
(04:08):
when he was debating brock Obama. She was wrong in
her correction at the time. So as long as they're
not making themselves the story, this is a This is
a fair shake, I think is Donald Trump's going to
be able.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
To get And in terms of the the Biden what
do you what do you think? I mean, having worked
at in comms with different campaigns, is the Biden strategy Yeah,
I know, be able to stand up for ninety minutes.
That might be a challenge look awake for not you know,
there's some of that, But what do you think they're
trying to get out of this? Is it really just
(04:41):
as simple as Joe Biden. Isn't somebody who should be
in like a care home for you know, seniors who
are in decline. I mean, is it that simple and
therefore low expectations that he has to be or is
there a messaging component that they think they'll be able
to get out of it that might start to turn
the polls around in their favor.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
So one thing about debates that debates don't pick campaign winners,
they pick campaign losers. If you have a bad moment
in a debate, it can tank your entire campaign cycle. Now,
the Young Kid mccauloff race in Virginia a couple of
years ago, Perry mccoff was already on a bit of
a slide downwards, but in his debate versus Glenn Youngkin,
he talked about parents not being able to be involved
(05:24):
in their children in school and touting that is a
good thing that was clipped. It went viral and that
really put the nail in the Terry mccauloff Coffin. So
for Joe Biden here what he needs to be able
to if what I anticipate his team is doing right
now is going through everything Donald Trump has said within
the last six months and finding lines that Biden can
(05:45):
deliver that they believe will knock Trump off his mark,
off his steady beacon in the middle, so that he
becomes more bombastic and tries to shout over the over
the muted mics and starts to get agitated and looks
like he's becoming to aggress it. That's my guess on
what the Biden team is doing, because if they knock
Trump off their mark and make it more of a
(06:05):
personality versus a policy fight, that's when Joe Biden will
likely do what could be considered well. One thing I
will say is no one should lower the bar on
Joe Biden being able to show up at this debate.
He has had fifty years of practice. This man is
a politician by trade, and while he might be hunkered
out down at Camp David, which is more exclusive than
(06:29):
Davos and the World Economic Forum at this point, with
his sixteen right hand people, if he shows up and
does what he did at the State of the Union,
which listen, I don't think that was a perfect state.
At the Union address, he was yelling, he got bombastic,
but overall he got very high marks. He does that
which with all of the prep, and everybody should be
(06:50):
asking themselves, why does our sitting president need to take
almost an entire week off of work when we have
a crisis at the southern border, the economy is still
not strong enough, we see geopolitical catastrophe. He has to
take the entire week off to study on Donald Trump,
who he's run against before, to try and show up
for ninety minutes. That is what worries me. But don't
(07:10):
lower the bar and bite because they are taking this time.
They are taking this week to get him as ready
as they can to stand on that debate stage and
look residential.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Aaron, I want to get your take on some of
the congressional primary results that we've seen, specifically or most
notably in New York with the Ouster from his seat
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dot com. All Right, Aaron the Bowman Loss in New
York's for it the seventeenth, the fourteenth, I forget which
congressional district. It is, but it's in the bronx in
(08:48):
Westchester and New York City. The Jamal Bowman loss is
interesting and getting a lot of national attention. It's the
Democrat who won. Obviously, it's in a primary, and that
Democrat's going to win the seat. What do you see
that happen there that could affect other races? What dynamics
were at play?
Speaker 1 (09:07):
There are a number of dynamics. One that Bowman represents
the most radical progressive portion of the democratic left. Right,
you are looking at a squad member who was saying
incredibly anti Semitic things and the APAC which is Israel
related super pack. They stood up money and really played
(09:29):
into this race. But also you saw that not only
was this anti Semitic rhetoric condemned and ousted from offices,
it should have been, but it's showing that the furthest
reaches of the radical left, those who really are AOC
prea Jayapaol Bowman himself, are no longer being seen. Corey
(09:50):
Bush is in a very close primary right now, with
her race almost statistically tied. Because these radical left positions
are being rejected by more moderate Democrats that should be
a warning sign to Joe Biden. Joe Biden is currently
looking at a Democrat primary electorate that has rejected time
(10:10):
and again, and it's been that progressive portion of the
primary electorate that has been more on the side of
Gaza and Hamas than they have been on Israel's ability
to protect themselves that is being rejected now by Democrats.
So while Joe Biden isn't doing what he needs to
do when it comes to standing up and protecting Jewish
citizens in la who are being attacked at synagogues, when
(10:33):
he's not doing enough to shut down anti Semitic rhetoric
on campuses, the Democratic base is rejecting that. So not
only have the progressives rejected Joe Biden throughout the primary,
You've seen many states throughout the primary process where uncommitted
no vote Democrats would show up, but say not Joe Biden.
So the progressive left is being rejected by Democrats. But
(10:57):
Joe Biden is trying to appease that progressive left to
try and keep the Democrat coalition base together for him
to then be able to pivot to the middle for
general election message to try and win in November. This
fracture in the Democrat Party right now, the rejection of
the progressive leftist Joe Biden continues to play that way
(11:19):
with more moderate Democrats saying this isn't what we want
really spells catastrophe for Joe Biden in the fall, because
if he cannot shore up this Democratic coalition base, he's
never going to be able to be talking to persuadable voters.
His message on national television will be about appeasing the
(11:39):
radical left and continuing to propose policies that do just that,
or taking an action at the pest of the radical left.
Those are going to be huge issues for him when
it is independence that will be deciding this election in
the fall and he's got a fractured Democrat Party.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
I'm going to come in and talk to you about
Trump is saying, or at least as reporting, that he
may announce his VP very soon, certainly the next couple
of weeks. Some of you even said he might do it
before the debate tomorrow. We'll see. I wanted to know
what if you have a take on the VP roll
in terms of how it could affect the selection, and
if you have somebody that you think will be or
would even be the best choice. We'll get to that
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Exclusions apply. I now want to ask on the VP side, Aaron,
do you think there's a VP that's definitely gonna you
know that you think I should say, is going to
be the choice? Does it matter for the election who
the choice is? How do you how do you come
down on the veep steaks for Trump?
Speaker 1 (13:47):
I think there are a lot of political pundits who
would say, oh, he needs to pick a woman, he
needs to pick a minority, It'll help him shore up
the electoral base. That's just not really how it actually happens.
When voters show up to the polls, people aren't voting
on the vice president. They're voting on the top of
the ticket. So he needs somebody that can help serve
the mission of his presidency if he wins in November.
(14:09):
Somebody who can help in money right now, because fundraising
is a crucial part of campaigning. Somebody who can help
carry the message on TV and at events. Somebody who
can go to those events and help recruit voters and
volunteers and keep this movement going. If you look at
the slate of people who have been out there so
far and have names floated, you've heard a least Stephonic,
(14:31):
Ben Carson, Tim Scott, Doug Bergham. You've got a big
list of people who are out there. But if you
look at who would likely serve, in my mind, the
best purpose for Donald Trump, it would be probably one
of two people. One would be Doug Burgham. I think
the CEO background that he has, the business background that
(14:52):
he has is really helpful one for not only bringing
in donors to the party, but two executing on work
that's going to be a different mentality that comes up
to Capitol Hill to help negotiate on behalf of the
president and the administration to get things done. He's also
not going to try to outshine Trump at all, and
he's probably not going to use it to try to
catapult immediately into running for president in four years after that.
(15:15):
I think Tim Scott could be an interesting choice because
he does have the Capitol Hill credentials that again are
really an important part of the vice president is being
able to go up there you're the president of the
Senate as the vice president, so you do a lot
of legislative work up on the hill to make sure
that the policy and priorities are getting done. Both of
those could be really interesting. I don't think it would be.
(15:36):
But I think that Glenn Youngkin would also be a
really interesting choice given that CEO background, given the fact
that he could also bring in donors to the party
and bring in dollars. I think those are kind of
the two big things. Who's going to be able to
supplement on the policy side and who's going to be
able to supplement on the campaign side. I think any
of those three are options, but right now my front
runner would be Doug Burgram.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Interesting. Those are all names that are clearly at the
top of the list, and so that all is no
surprises there, right I mean, I would expect you'd say
those names. I didn't hear you mention jd Vance though
I was thinking you would. So why not jd Vance
at the top of your list? Because I've been saying
I think it will be jd Vance for months now.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
The list is really big. It's not to say I
don't think that jd Vance has a chance. I just
believe that when it comes to what we're looking at,
what we're seeing reported right now, who's kind of playing
the race the best? I actually do think that's Doug Burgham.
He's done a great job since he came out of
the primary and standing behind Trump, being readily available, being
(16:40):
out there campaigning, being part of that team in a
really aggressive way. Not to say Senator Vance hasn't, but
Doug Burgham has in a really monumental way. What was
the Easter. You saw him walking out of mar A
Lago right behind the President and his family. He's very
close to President Trump, so is jd. Vance. But I
still don't know. I still think it's Doug Burgham. Listen,
(17:01):
there could be a dark horse candidate that nobody's talking about,
although that I doubt because I think Trump kind of
likes people when they float themselves a little bit and
kind of play this media game that we're seeing with
some of these names.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Yeah, despite what some people are saying out there, I
like radio too much, so I just I can't accept,
as much as I would love to, the Trump VP slot.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
But you know that's the ultimate dark horse. Buck Sexton
for sex.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
I mean, you did Trump did say once, probably the
best hair in radio, and I'm like, what does that mean.
I'm like, hold on a second, hold on, is that
like face for radio? But anyway, Trump's very funny, Aaron.
Great to have you on. Where can folks go follow
you on social media? What's the best place to hear
more of your analysis?
Speaker 1 (17:46):
Yeah? Follow me on Twitter? Aaron M. Parini on Twitter.
I'm there. I talk politics, sports, Diehard, Buffalo Bills, and
Yukon Fan and a little bit of Bravo too, So
a little bit of personality, a little bit of politics.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
The best Bravo show is.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
Summer House Fantastic season right now? Oh my gosh, bethe'son.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Ever Million Dollar Sting NYC is the correct answer, But
that's all right. You're allowed to You're allowed to pick
your VP choice, You're allowed to pick your best Bravo show. Aaron, Brittany, everybody, Aaron,
thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Thank you