August 20, 2025 • 22 mins
Is Trump on the verge of brokering a deal to end the war in Ukraine? Buck is joined by Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal, to break down the realities on the battlefield, Russia’s war strategy, Ukraine’s uphill fight, and what a Trump-led peace effort might actually achieve.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Is Trump on the brink of helping to bring an
end to the war in Ukraine? It is certainly something
that we're rooting for, and we will talk to our
friend Bill Rosio about it now. He's a senior fellow
at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies. You know him from
Long War Journal. He gets deep into this stuff, deep
into the weeds of conflicts abroad. Bill, let's start with this.
(00:44):
Can you just give me and we got a few
minutes here to do this. What is the status of
the conflict right now? Still ongoing? Right, no ceasefire, so
you still have both sides shooting at each other. Where
do we find ourselves as we look over the battlefield
in Ukraine? What is the status quo?
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah? Hello, Buck, And the status is that the war continues.
The Russians are eating the uk Tranian cal one small
bite at a time. The Russians are making small gains daily,
but these gains add up. In the don Bas region,
which is made up primarily of the Luhansk and Donetsks
(01:24):
Oblast in eastern Ukraine. The Russians controlled nearly all of
Luhansk and about sixty sixty to seventy percent of the Donbas.
Remaining are two large cities of Slovyansk and Kremturisk, and
then there's several smaller cities. The Russians are surrounding one
(01:47):
city that used to be the key logistical hub for
Ukrainian forces. It's the city's called Proprosk, and the Russians
recently made a small breakthrough north of that city that
could have put the Russian troops into the rear of
the cities of Kremturisk and Slovayansk. The Ukrainians were able
to blunt that offensive, but it's come at a cost,
(02:10):
and that cost is that they stripped elite units from
their positions along the front to stop the Russians, and
that fighting is still ongoing. That outcome has still not
been decided. But apparently now the Russians, at least their
advance has been halted and now the Russians are advancing
in other areas, cities like Seversk and kas Tina Tanika.
(02:36):
These cities are you know, Russians are preparing to surround
both of those cities at this time. You know, a
lot of this is both buck This is a war
of both attrition and territory. So the Russians are certainly
winning the war of attrition. Ukrainians were able to make
that small breakthrough because some of these positions along the
(02:56):
front line, the trenches and fortifications, a lot of them
were unmanned. Ukrainians thought they could fill those, fill those
holes with drones, and Russians have come up with creative
ways to get around that. And that's but it's as
far as the war territory. As I said at the opening,
the Russians are taking small bits and pieces.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
I'll ask you about about about the attrition, the attrition
part of this, because I'm curious. I've heard and this
was even when I was in the White House speaking
of some of Trump's national security officials back in June.
The numbers for the losses here and I know casualties, right,
people usually including fatalities and wounded in that. But the
numbers that they're telling me you are in the hundreds
of thousands at this point of soldiers, right, That's what
(03:40):
that's what the casualty figures are looking like. Does Russian manpower.
H is Russian manpower being depleted at a level where
it is uncertain they could continue this level of offensive
against the Ukrainian defensive positions or are there just so
many Russians and so much conscription that they could keep
(04:01):
doing this for years.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
The Russians have a population four times of that of Ukraine.
They've shown a willingness to do you sacrifice forces. Now,
I dispute those numbers that we're seeing. Most of these
numbers come from the Ukrainians themselves, which have been inflating
casualties since the beginning of the war. We're seeing something
like twenty thousand Russians killed monthly as some of the reporting.
(04:28):
I'm highly let's.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Take into this. You know, you've looked at you and
you're I know, you're a long war journal You've been
a GWAT guy, you served the military yourself. You know,
see you you understand the casualty figures, the situation of
how this stuff gets tabulated. What do you think is
really what do you think the casualt numbers really are?
I mean, if somebody said to you, I really need
to know if Trump sat down and he said, look,
(04:51):
how many Russians do you think have been killed in
this conflict in three years. I'm talking soldiers now, not civilians.
And how many well that would not really affec Russian civilians,
but and how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in
three years? What do you think is a realistic number?
Speaker 1 (05:05):
I mean, that's really difficult. There's so much misinformation and
disinformation put out, largely on the Russian side of the casualties,
largely by the Ukrainians. And you know, have those numbers
maybe a quarter so perhaps one hundred thousand Russian dead Because.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
This is what I was, this is what I'm trying
to get at. If the Russians have lost three or
four hundred thousand people, I mean truly like either killed
or combat ineffective forever, you know, wounded severely, They even
the Russians, can't keep that up for years ahead, right,
I mean, if they had lost a half a million
people already in the fighting, which is one of the
numbers I've heard, they're going to run out of people
(05:44):
pretty pretty you know soon. It sounds to me like
you're saying, no, they've lost a much lesser number than that,
and so this can continue much longer.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Look, even if they were taking that number of casualties.
I just look at what the amount of casualties the
Russians looked took in World War Two. I mean, six
million Russians are estimated to have been killed. How many
millions were captured by the Germans during the war as well.
It's their way of warfare. It has been, it always
(06:14):
has been their way of warfare. So what could we
take those level of casualties? Absolutely not, Buck, Can Ukrainians
take those level of casualties? I think they have been
and so have the Russians. But again I think even so, Look,
I would say even if that's.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Most important too, because you're telling me, you're telling me,
Bill that Putin knows that this is in the most grim,
macabre fashion. It's a numbers game, and it's a numbers
game that he's inevitbly gonna win if he stays on this.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
It's exactly correct, Buck, Yeah, this is a game he
has calculating. The Russians are recruiting far more people know it,
but it's working and they're going to the front. It's
it's a different culture, it's a different way of life,
sacrifice and hard hardship for the Russians.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Let's get around then to the other side, because so
the Russian will to continue to fight, and that's critical.
And you've put out there why I have to give
a moment to our sponsor here, but I want to
come back and ask you, Bill, how could Ukraine what
would be required, not what will happen right, but just
theoretically take me through an order of battle of what
would be necessary for Ukraine to really turn the tide
(07:19):
right in a meaningful way. What will be some of
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uc k. All right, now take me through, because I
think this is important that we're good. We'll get into
the diplomacy and negotiations here in a minutes bill. But
what would actually have to happen for Ukraine to be
able to hold the line and inflict Russian casualties at
such a rate that Russia wouldn't be in a position
(08:22):
to keep chipping away and eating more of Ukraine's territory.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
I don't think that's possible. I think the time has passed.
The best chance the Ukrainians had when they were given
the weapons and material in twenty twenty three offensive, which
we all watched, was a complete failure. That was the
high point in my estimation of the Ukrainian military. The
Russians would have to make such monumental mistakes for the
(08:50):
Ukrainians to be able to Now, Buck, are you talking
about what can drive the Russians out of or get the.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Ukrainian No, I mean, what could force a true stalemate
so that you know, because people have right, so that
Pudin thinks, Okay, I've gotten as much as I can get,
you know, under the current realities, is that achievable? No, No,
kicking all the Russians out. I don't think that achievable
at all. I mean because right now you still have
the Russians thinking or prudence thinking, We're going to keep,
(09:15):
you said, taking bites of the cookie or the apple
or whatever. We're gonna keep taking little pieces of territory.
Is it possible that the Ukrainians, with what better air cover,
better air defense, just more personnel, they'd be able to
say we actually because they're building these really elaborate trench
networks now, right, six layer trench networks. They get the
(09:37):
barbed wire, they get minefields, they get anti tank, they
get anti personnel. I mean, it's going all the way back.
Do you think that they'll be able to hold them
or are the Russians just gonna keep coming? Because I
think that's a critical calculation that affects the diplomatic side
of this.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Well, they would need to be able to man those
fortifications one which they want. The Ukrainians refuse to lower
the draft age below twenty five because of a demographic issue.
They recognize that if they start going up to that
population that they're going to have serious demographic issues after
the war ends. But the other side of that argument
is they're may not be a Ukraine left or a
(10:11):
viable Ukraine left if they don't begin the draft. So
that's again, that's how they were The Russians are able
to penetrate and take land because the Ukrainians can't man
all these fortifications that they built. They would need such
a massive influx of artillery systems and long and short
range drones and other air force. They would need a
(10:34):
massive air force. They'd need to be able to suppress
the Russian air force, not ad just at the line
of contact, but far beyond it. So that would require
a massive number of air defense units that would have
to be deployed forward. Again, they the time to receive
that equipment that's passed. I don't think the United States
is gonna supply it. I don't think that. You know,
(10:56):
we're talking hundreds and hundreds of billions of times.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Well you're you're somewhat bleak. If if I can characterize
it that way, you're somewhat bleak. Analysis of the Ukraine
Ukrainian military's prospects Bill I think is reflected very much
in Russian and Putin's attitude about all this.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Yeah, and also President Trump's desire to get a peace deal,
because I do think the administration does understand that things
aren't going as well for the Ukrainians as is being
told that. Look, I think the Ukrainians need a cease fire.
They need to be able to get those troops. Troops
(11:33):
are not being rotated off the line for months and
months at a time. Some guys have been serving on
the front lines in and out for since the beginning
of this conflict, even before this conflict began. It's just
not sustainable. The Putin certainly believes that he could grind
down the Ukrainians. That's what I'm watching him do now.
It's not simple. It's not something that the Russians can
(11:55):
do today, tomorrow, or even next month. But I look
at this in the term of what does it look
like six months or one year or two years from
now if the Russians are committed to maintaining this level
of fighting, which I believe they can do. This does
not bode well for Ukraine. They could you know, the
question is is is Ukraine going to have to make
(12:17):
some type of land concession or they go just going
to let the Russians take it over time. I don't
like any of this. Buck to be clear, I'm not
sitting here saying that the Ukrainians should see territory that
the Russians haven't taken. Ukrainians need to be looking for
creative ways to get a ceasefire so they can.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Be You're looking at the data and the maps and
everything every day, and I think so many people, including
you know, speaking just from a generalist media perspective, we
come in and come out on this issue. And even
though I've been very skeptical for years, you know, I
said when the first invasion happened, people are underestimating the
Russian from the very beginning. They're underestimating the Russian war machine.
They're underestimating the casualties which we were just talking about
(12:56):
that Russians willing to take, whether it's you know, fifty
thousand or five hundred thousand. I mean, they're underestimating the
russians willingness to stay in this fight even if casualties
get to really grotesque level, and that it's gonna cost
America the better part of a trillion dollars before this
thing is done. If we're really the financial backers of
all this, Okay, we're three hundred billion now, not quite
(13:19):
a we're getting We're gonna be at a half a
trillion for sure. And that's even if i think things
start to slow down a bit. But I'm I'm just
it's interesting to me, Bill, because there seems to be
such surprise. Why can't it deal? Why is it so
hard to get a deal done? And the most people
seem to think, oh, it's because of the negotiation over
(13:40):
the land. I want, you know, Zelenski wants this. Putin
wants that this is what's fair. If Putin thinks he's
gonna get even more by continuing the fight, he wants
to continue the fight. That's the that's the real problem.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Yeah, it is. And he wants more than just laand too,
to be clear, Buck, he wants, you know, a changing government.
He wants to ensure that there isn't NATO forces or
Western forces based in Ukraine. He wants basically Ukraine to
be a vassal state, to be a country like Belarus
that could be controlled, and Kranians aren't willing to do that,
nor should they be willing to do that. You know
(14:15):
what it's it's a conundrum. It's a catch twenty two
for the Ukrainians. How do they get this cease fire?
How do they get this deal without conceding. Look at
the very least, the Russians are never going to hand
over any of the land that they've grabbed so far,
and it's been significant, Over twenty percent of Ukrainian territory
has been taken by the Russians. So that's not going
(14:38):
to happen. But there has to be ways. You know.
This is where I'm looking at these these talks, and
I think it's a positive thing. I think Trump's doing
the right thing and making an effort.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Can we pause on where the talks o for one second.
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where privacy begins. All right, now, Bill, let's talk the
process here with a focus on what your what you
think Trump can realistically achieve, and how.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
I think what could there. It's possible to get a ceasefire.
That is not a peace agreement that will settle this war,
but I do think it could be possible to get
a ceasefire. The thing that these talks will help do.
I think the Trump administration is still figuring out what
Putin wants and what Putin doesn't want, and that is
(16:12):
the one reason why these talks are positive. But Putin
doesn't want to cease fire. He wants basically, when he
says he wants a peace deal, what he really wants
is a surrender. This is why he's saying he won't
meet Zelensky until the peace deal is on the table,
which would be basically, come and sign your agreement to surrender,
(16:33):
because he believes he has all the cards. Look, there
are some cards that the West plays with sanctions, additional sanctions.
I mean, it'd be really nice if the Europeans stop buying,
you know, over.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
This is what I was talking about on RADI of other day.
I said, people who are saying, oh, the sanctions are sanctions.
Europeans are still buying. I mean it's a fraction of
what it was, but on the oil side, but on
the natural gas side, they're still buying a ton of
Russian natural gas. It's cold and dusal dwarf in the
winter time.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Yeah, I mean, that's I if the West is serious.
I mean I saw that. I wasn't able to confirm this,
but it sounds right that the European buy more in
Russian petroleum products than they do donating to Ukraine yearly.
That's no, you know, they're so basically they're funding a war.
(17:20):
They're funding Russian's war. This is no way to fight
a war, This is no way to be a real
true ally. So these things need to be resolved. If
they can be resolved, maybe additional pressure could be placed
on the.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Other thing is these countries. Is I understand it. The
countries that we're told are stepping in, you know, China
and Iran and India and that are buying in Russian
oil because they don't care. Some of them are selling
it back to the Europeans. Yeah, so they're really just
in a middleman position. The whole thing is so screwed
up we're led to believe. Oh, Russia is this isolated power.
(17:52):
Does Russia look like the ruble has plunged, you know,
eighty percent and that the people can't get food in
the streets.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
In fact, if anything, their industrial capacity seems to be
from what you can see on the front lines right,
the industrial capacity seems to be improving, and they're putting
out more and better drones to use on those front
lines than ever before.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
No, that's absolutely correct. They've actually outpaced the Ukrainians and
drone production now and employment and the technology for it
they've innovated in these areas. This is one of the
longer term concerns of mine. I know it's not something
you ask, but the Russians are learning about modern warfare
daily on the battlefield. It'll make them a more efford
This is what.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
I was going to ask you about this. I worry
that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of
the future is going to be like. And the Russians
are getting quite a lesson.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Yeah, and you know, Buck, we learned all the wrong
lessons during the War on Terror, right, small wars, rules
of engagement, fear of casualties. The Russians are doing the
exact opposit.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
I mean, the focus was on really the g WAT era, right,
there was so much focus on human intelligence collection SEA
and stuff like that, and really elite infantry rangers, seals,
SF and all this going after hvts, high value talk
you know in a rock Rofghanistan, And that was for
(19:13):
those conflicts. If you're talking about fighting against Russian military,
that that stuff is all you know. You can train
some private to fly. It doesn't matter how how good
you are, how strong you are, how good a shot
you are. If you've got a drone swarm over your head,
and there are privates so on the other side who
are able to send these hunter killer drones after you
(19:33):
to blow up right next to you. I mean that's
game over.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Yeah, absolutely, you know. And on that point, you know,
I was watching I saw this video release by the
Marines and they were working on integrating drones into their units,
and they're saying, and we're gonna move forward with this
in December, and I just stood there with my mouth agape,
and I'm like, what are you waiting for? As a
matter of fact, why wasn't this done to December's ago?
What war have you guys have been watching? And this
(19:58):
is a big concern of mine that we're still fighting
the last wars and we're not even caught up to
understanding the nature of these wars. Yeah, I completely agree.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
With you, Buck, I mean, it's the the pace also
of the drone advancements that we see is both fascinating
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Paradigm Press. Let me just ask you just the last
minute or two we have here, Bill, So, what do
you think happens with these peace negotiations and with this conflict?
What's your projection over the next six to twelve months.
Speaker 1 (21:09):
I don't think we're going to see a ceasefire or
a peace agreement anytime soon. I think the Trump administration
is going to learn that Putin has you know, believes
that he has the the advantage, that he's the one
actually holding the cards. And I think the Trump administration
will continue to try to engage. This is something that
(21:30):
President Trump likes, he likes to to, you know, show
that he's resolving conflicts. You know, we had the Armenia Azerbaijan,
we ran Pakistan, you know, getting a ceasefire between Israel
and Iran. I'm sorry that was India Pakistan. And so
I think he's going to continue to make these efforts.
(21:51):
But I think in the sixth next six months, I
think you just could see a continuation of the fighting
and I think you'll see these small gains by the
Russians the land Gulf, several of these smaller cities, and
they're going to begin to put pressure within the next
year and put it set itself up in a position
to take what it wants to achieve via a peace agreement,
(22:12):
so called peace agreement.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
All right, Bill Roggio of FDD Foundation of Defense and
Democracy has always appreciate you, sir.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Good to see you. Great to see you, Buck, Thanks
for having me on.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Thank you
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
Is Trump on the brink of helping to bring an
end to the war in Ukraine? It is certainly something
that we're rooting for, and we will talk to our
friend Bill Rosio about it now. He's a senior fellow
at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies. You know him from
Long War Journal. He gets deep into this stuff, deep
into the weeds of conflicts abroad. Bill, let's start with this.
(00:44):
Can you just give me and we got a few
minutes here to do this. What is the status of
the conflict right now? Still ongoing? Right, no ceasefire, so
you still have both sides shooting at each other. Where
do we find ourselves as we look over the battlefield
in Ukraine? What is the status quo?
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yeah? Hello, Buck, And the status is that the war continues.
The Russians are eating the uk Tranian cal one small
bite at a time. The Russians are making small gains daily,
but these gains add up. In the don Bas region,
which is made up primarily of the Luhansk and Donetsks
(01:24):
Oblast in eastern Ukraine. The Russians controlled nearly all of
Luhansk and about sixty sixty to seventy percent of the Donbas.
Remaining are two large cities of Slovyansk and Kremturisk, and
then there's several smaller cities. The Russians are surrounding one
(01:47):
city that used to be the key logistical hub for
Ukrainian forces. It's the city's called Proprosk, and the Russians
recently made a small breakthrough north of that city that
could have put the Russian troops into the rear of
the cities of Kremturisk and Slovayansk. The Ukrainians were able
to blunt that offensive, but it's come at a cost,
(02:10):
and that cost is that they stripped elite units from
their positions along the front to stop the Russians, and
that fighting is still ongoing. That outcome has still not
been decided. But apparently now the Russians, at least their
advance has been halted and now the Russians are advancing
in other areas, cities like Seversk and kas Tina Tanika.
(02:36):
These cities are you know, Russians are preparing to surround
both of those cities at this time. You know, a
lot of this is both buck This is a war
of both attrition and territory. So the Russians are certainly
winning the war of attrition. Ukrainians were able to make
that small breakthrough because some of these positions along the
(02:56):
front line, the trenches and fortifications, a lot of them
were unmanned. Ukrainians thought they could fill those, fill those
holes with drones, and Russians have come up with creative
ways to get around that. And that's but it's as
far as the war territory. As I said at the opening,
the Russians are taking small bits and pieces.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
I'll ask you about about about the attrition, the attrition
part of this, because I'm curious. I've heard and this
was even when I was in the White House speaking
of some of Trump's national security officials back in June.
The numbers for the losses here and I know casualties, right,
people usually including fatalities and wounded in that. But the
numbers that they're telling me you are in the hundreds
of thousands at this point of soldiers, right, That's what
(03:40):
that's what the casualty figures are looking like. Does Russian manpower.
H is Russian manpower being depleted at a level where
it is uncertain they could continue this level of offensive
against the Ukrainian defensive positions or are there just so
many Russians and so much conscription that they could keep
(04:01):
doing this for years.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
The Russians have a population four times of that of Ukraine.
They've shown a willingness to do you sacrifice forces. Now,
I dispute those numbers that we're seeing. Most of these
numbers come from the Ukrainians themselves, which have been inflating
casualties since the beginning of the war. We're seeing something
like twenty thousand Russians killed monthly as some of the reporting.
(04:28):
I'm highly let's.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Take into this. You know, you've looked at you and
you're I know, you're a long war journal You've been
a GWAT guy, you served the military yourself. You know,
see you you understand the casualty figures, the situation of
how this stuff gets tabulated. What do you think is
really what do you think the casualt numbers really are?
I mean, if somebody said to you, I really need
to know if Trump sat down and he said, look,
(04:51):
how many Russians do you think have been killed in
this conflict in three years. I'm talking soldiers now, not civilians.
And how many well that would not really affec Russian civilians,
but and how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in
three years? What do you think is a realistic number?
Speaker 1 (05:05):
I mean, that's really difficult. There's so much misinformation and
disinformation put out, largely on the Russian side of the casualties,
largely by the Ukrainians. And you know, have those numbers
maybe a quarter so perhaps one hundred thousand Russian dead Because.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
This is what I was, this is what I'm trying
to get at. If the Russians have lost three or
four hundred thousand people, I mean truly like either killed
or combat ineffective forever, you know, wounded severely, They even
the Russians, can't keep that up for years ahead, right,
I mean, if they had lost a half a million
people already in the fighting, which is one of the
numbers I've heard, they're going to run out of people
(05:44):
pretty pretty you know soon. It sounds to me like
you're saying, no, they've lost a much lesser number than that,
and so this can continue much longer.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Look, even if they were taking that number of casualties.
I just look at what the amount of casualties the
Russians looked took in World War Two. I mean, six
million Russians are estimated to have been killed. How many
millions were captured by the Germans during the war as well.
It's their way of warfare. It has been, it always
(06:14):
has been their way of warfare. So what could we
take those level of casualties? Absolutely not, Buck, Can Ukrainians
take those level of casualties? I think they have been
and so have the Russians. But again I think even so, Look,
I would say even if that's.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Most important too, because you're telling me, you're telling me,
Bill that Putin knows that this is in the most grim,
macabre fashion. It's a numbers game, and it's a numbers
game that he's inevitbly gonna win if he stays on this.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
It's exactly correct, Buck, Yeah, this is a game he
has calculating. The Russians are recruiting far more people know it,
but it's working and they're going to the front. It's
it's a different culture, it's a different way of life,
sacrifice and hard hardship for the Russians.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
Let's get around then to the other side, because so
the Russian will to continue to fight, and that's critical.
And you've put out there why I have to give
a moment to our sponsor here, but I want to
come back and ask you, Bill, how could Ukraine what
would be required, not what will happen right, but just
theoretically take me through an order of battle of what
would be necessary for Ukraine to really turn the tide
(07:19):
right in a meaningful way. What will be some of
the things. Let's get to that in one second. You know,
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preborn dot com slash buck preborn dot com slash b
uc k. All right, now take me through, because I
think this is important that we're good. We'll get into
the diplomacy and negotiations here in a minutes bill. But
what would actually have to happen for Ukraine to be
able to hold the line and inflict Russian casualties at
such a rate that Russia wouldn't be in a position
(08:22):
to keep chipping away and eating more of Ukraine's territory.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
I don't think that's possible. I think the time has passed.
The best chance the Ukrainians had when they were given
the weapons and material in twenty twenty three offensive, which
we all watched, was a complete failure. That was the
high point in my estimation of the Ukrainian military. The
Russians would have to make such monumental mistakes for the
(08:50):
Ukrainians to be able to Now, Buck, are you talking
about what can drive the Russians out of or get the.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Ukrainian No, I mean, what could force a true stalemate
so that you know, because people have right, so that
Pudin thinks, Okay, I've gotten as much as I can get,
you know, under the current realities, is that achievable? No, No,
kicking all the Russians out. I don't think that achievable
at all. I mean because right now you still have
the Russians thinking or prudence thinking, We're going to keep,
(09:15):
you said, taking bites of the cookie or the apple
or whatever. We're gonna keep taking little pieces of territory.
Is it possible that the Ukrainians, with what better air cover,
better air defense, just more personnel, they'd be able to
say we actually because they're building these really elaborate trench
networks now, right, six layer trench networks. They get the
(09:37):
barbed wire, they get minefields, they get anti tank, they
get anti personnel. I mean, it's going all the way back.
Do you think that they'll be able to hold them
or are the Russians just gonna keep coming? Because I
think that's a critical calculation that affects the diplomatic side
of this.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Well, they would need to be able to man those
fortifications one which they want. The Ukrainians refuse to lower
the draft age below twenty five because of a demographic issue.
They recognize that if they start going up to that
population that they're going to have serious demographic issues after
the war ends. But the other side of that argument
is they're may not be a Ukraine left or a
(10:11):
viable Ukraine left if they don't begin the draft. So
that's again, that's how they were The Russians are able
to penetrate and take land because the Ukrainians can't man
all these fortifications that they built. They would need such
a massive influx of artillery systems and long and short
range drones and other air force. They would need a
(10:34):
massive air force. They'd need to be able to suppress
the Russian air force, not ad just at the line
of contact, but far beyond it. So that would require
a massive number of air defense units that would have
to be deployed forward. Again, they the time to receive
that equipment that's passed. I don't think the United States
is gonna supply it. I don't think that. You know,
(10:56):
we're talking hundreds and hundreds of billions of times.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Well you're you're somewhat bleak. If if I can characterize
it that way, you're somewhat bleak. Analysis of the Ukraine
Ukrainian military's prospects Bill I think is reflected very much
in Russian and Putin's attitude about all this.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Yeah, and also President Trump's desire to get a peace deal,
because I do think the administration does understand that things
aren't going as well for the Ukrainians as is being
told that. Look, I think the Ukrainians need a cease fire.
They need to be able to get those troops. Troops
(11:33):
are not being rotated off the line for months and
months at a time. Some guys have been serving on
the front lines in and out for since the beginning
of this conflict, even before this conflict began. It's just
not sustainable. The Putin certainly believes that he could grind
down the Ukrainians. That's what I'm watching him do now.
It's not simple. It's not something that the Russians can
(11:55):
do today, tomorrow, or even next month. But I look
at this in the term of what does it look
like six months or one year or two years from
now if the Russians are committed to maintaining this level
of fighting, which I believe they can do. This does
not bode well for Ukraine. They could you know, the
question is is is Ukraine going to have to make
(12:17):
some type of land concession or they go just going
to let the Russians take it over time. I don't
like any of this. Buck to be clear, I'm not
sitting here saying that the Ukrainians should see territory that
the Russians haven't taken. Ukrainians need to be looking for
creative ways to get a ceasefire so they can.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Be You're looking at the data and the maps and
everything every day, and I think so many people, including
you know, speaking just from a generalist media perspective, we
come in and come out on this issue. And even
though I've been very skeptical for years, you know, I
said when the first invasion happened, people are underestimating the
Russian from the very beginning. They're underestimating the Russian war machine.
They're underestimating the casualties which we were just talking about
(12:56):
that Russians willing to take, whether it's you know, fifty
thousand or five hundred thousand. I mean, they're underestimating the
russians willingness to stay in this fight even if casualties
get to really grotesque level, and that it's gonna cost
America the better part of a trillion dollars before this
thing is done. If we're really the financial backers of
all this, Okay, we're three hundred billion now, not quite
(13:19):
a we're getting We're gonna be at a half a
trillion for sure. And that's even if i think things
start to slow down a bit. But I'm I'm just
it's interesting to me, Bill, because there seems to be
such surprise. Why can't it deal? Why is it so
hard to get a deal done? And the most people
seem to think, oh, it's because of the negotiation over
(13:40):
the land. I want, you know, Zelenski wants this. Putin
wants that this is what's fair. If Putin thinks he's
gonna get even more by continuing the fight, he wants
to continue the fight. That's the that's the real problem.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
Yeah, it is. And he wants more than just laand too,
to be clear, Buck, he wants, you know, a changing government.
He wants to ensure that there isn't NATO forces or
Western forces based in Ukraine. He wants basically Ukraine to
be a vassal state, to be a country like Belarus
that could be controlled, and Kranians aren't willing to do that,
nor should they be willing to do that. You know
(14:15):
what it's it's a conundrum. It's a catch twenty two
for the Ukrainians. How do they get this cease fire?
How do they get this deal without conceding. Look at
the very least, the Russians are never going to hand
over any of the land that they've grabbed so far,
and it's been significant, Over twenty percent of Ukrainian territory
has been taken by the Russians. So that's not going
(14:38):
to happen. But there has to be ways. You know.
This is where I'm looking at these these talks, and
I think it's a positive thing. I think Trump's doing
the right thing and making an effort.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Can we pause on where the talks o for one second.
I want to dive into that with our next segment
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where privacy begins. All right, now, Bill, let's talk the
process here with a focus on what your what you
think Trump can realistically achieve, and how.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
I think what could there. It's possible to get a ceasefire.
That is not a peace agreement that will settle this war,
but I do think it could be possible to get
a ceasefire. The thing that these talks will help do.
I think the Trump administration is still figuring out what
Putin wants and what Putin doesn't want, and that is
(16:12):
the one reason why these talks are positive. But Putin
doesn't want to cease fire. He wants basically, when he
says he wants a peace deal, what he really wants
is a surrender. This is why he's saying he won't
meet Zelensky until the peace deal is on the table,
which would be basically, come and sign your agreement to surrender,
(16:33):
because he believes he has all the cards. Look, there
are some cards that the West plays with sanctions, additional sanctions.
I mean, it'd be really nice if the Europeans stop buying,
you know, over.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
This is what I was talking about on RADI of other day.
I said, people who are saying, oh, the sanctions are sanctions.
Europeans are still buying. I mean it's a fraction of
what it was, but on the oil side, but on
the natural gas side, they're still buying a ton of
Russian natural gas. It's cold and dusal dwarf in the
winter time.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
Yeah, I mean, that's I if the West is serious.
I mean I saw that. I wasn't able to confirm this,
but it sounds right that the European buy more in
Russian petroleum products than they do donating to Ukraine yearly.
That's no, you know, they're so basically they're funding a war.
(17:20):
They're funding Russian's war. This is no way to fight
a war, This is no way to be a real
true ally. So these things need to be resolved. If
they can be resolved, maybe additional pressure could be placed
on the.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Other thing is these countries. Is I understand it. The
countries that we're told are stepping in, you know, China
and Iran and India and that are buying in Russian
oil because they don't care. Some of them are selling
it back to the Europeans. Yeah, so they're really just
in a middleman position. The whole thing is so screwed
up we're led to believe. Oh, Russia is this isolated power.
(17:52):
Does Russia look like the ruble has plunged, you know,
eighty percent and that the people can't get food in
the streets.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:59):
In fact, if anything, their industrial capacity seems to be
from what you can see on the front lines right,
the industrial capacity seems to be improving, and they're putting
out more and better drones to use on those front
lines than ever before.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
No, that's absolutely correct. They've actually outpaced the Ukrainians and
drone production now and employment and the technology for it
they've innovated in these areas. This is one of the
longer term concerns of mine. I know it's not something
you ask, but the Russians are learning about modern warfare
daily on the battlefield. It'll make them a more efford
This is what.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
I was going to ask you about this. I worry
that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of
the future is going to be like. And the Russians
are getting quite a lesson.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Yeah, and you know, Buck, we learned all the wrong
lessons during the War on Terror, right, small wars, rules
of engagement, fear of casualties. The Russians are doing the
exact opposit.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
I mean, the focus was on really the g WAT era, right,
there was so much focus on human intelligence collection SEA
and stuff like that, and really elite infantry rangers, seals,
SF and all this going after hvts, high value talk
you know in a rock Rofghanistan, And that was for
(19:13):
those conflicts. If you're talking about fighting against Russian military,
that that stuff is all you know. You can train
some private to fly. It doesn't matter how how good
you are, how strong you are, how good a shot
you are. If you've got a drone swarm over your head,
and there are privates so on the other side who
are able to send these hunter killer drones after you
(19:33):
to blow up right next to you. I mean that's
game over.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Yeah, absolutely, you know. And on that point, you know,
I was watching I saw this video release by the
Marines and they were working on integrating drones into their units,
and they're saying, and we're gonna move forward with this
in December, and I just stood there with my mouth agape,
and I'm like, what are you waiting for? As a
matter of fact, why wasn't this done to December's ago?
What war have you guys have been watching? And this
(19:58):
is a big concern of mine that we're still fighting
the last wars and we're not even caught up to
understanding the nature of these wars. Yeah, I completely agree.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
With you, Buck, I mean, it's the the pace also
of the drone advancements that we see is both fascinating
and concerning. But our sponsor is Paradigm Press. You know,
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Paradigm Press. Let me just ask you just the last
minute or two we have here, Bill, So, what do
you think happens with these peace negotiations and with this conflict?
What's your projection over the next six to twelve months.
Speaker 1 (21:09):
I don't think we're going to see a ceasefire or
a peace agreement anytime soon. I think the Trump administration
is going to learn that Putin has you know, believes
that he has the the advantage, that he's the one
actually holding the cards. And I think the Trump administration
will continue to try to engage. This is something that
(21:30):
President Trump likes, he likes to to, you know, show
that he's resolving conflicts. You know, we had the Armenia Azerbaijan,
we ran Pakistan, you know, getting a ceasefire between Israel
and Iran. I'm sorry that was India Pakistan. And so
I think he's going to continue to make these efforts.
(21:51):
But I think in the sixth next six months, I
think you just could see a continuation of the fighting
and I think you'll see these small gains by the
Russians the land Gulf, several of these smaller cities, and
they're going to begin to put pressure within the next
year and put it set itself up in a position
to take what it wants to achieve via a peace agreement,
(22:12):
so called peace agreement.
Speaker 2 (22:13):
All right, Bill Roggio of FDD Foundation of Defense and
Democracy has always appreciate you, sir.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Good to see you. Great to see you, Buck, Thanks
for having me on.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Thank you
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