October 4, 2024 • 20 mins
Ryan Girdusky joins to break down the latest on the 2024 presidential election. Ryan and Buck dive into key battleground states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and discuss how absentee ballot trends and early voter turnout could impact the results. They also explore Trump’s standing in crucial Midwest states like Wisconsin and Michigan and the fight for Senate control.
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hey guys, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Graduski with us.
He is the author of the National Populist newsletter on
Substack great analysis. There go subscribe Ryan. Who is winning
this election? Where by? How much? What's going on?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, the three states that matter the most right now
are Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins all
three of those a lot, but third three of those
states he's got in the bag, he's going to win.
If he loses any of those three states, it becomes
much much more difficult. I feel very bullish on Pennsylvania
given that Republicans are overperforming an absentee requests round twenty
(00:58):
twenty two about one hundred and one thousand more Republican
absentee requests since the midterms are in. In Pennsylvania, Democrats
are down over fifty thousand vote. So even though Democrats lead,
which are always going to lead an absentee ballots, Republicans
have a much bigger margin. Republicans are probably going to
(01:18):
get very close, if not surpass their twenty twenty numbers.
Democrats are not even going to get close to They're
probably about a half a million sure their twenty twenty numbers.
Republicans will probably hit their twenty twenty numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
So Pennsylvania is looking good. Do you have concerns about
the ability of some of these places that have been
hardest hit Western North Carolina and others to be able
to get people to, you know, just to be able
to vote period right, be able to get there to
the polling place or do you think that they'll be
able to figure that out before election day?
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Sure, it depends on what the laws are. They might
amend some of the laws to allow people to vote
in different counties than when they reside. And I don't
exactly know every place that was hit. I know all
of western North Carolina wasn't hit equally. And where it
comes to the votes, the city of Asheville and the
county that Asheville sides and gives about a thirty five
(02:12):
thousand vote majority to Democrats serving to Biden. The surrounding
counties give about a thirty five thousand vote lead to Trump.
It could end up being a wash depending on how
that was not meant to be a joke at wash,
but it may end up being even given the fact
that Asheville is so liberal. I mean within the city
(02:34):
confines of Asheville, it's like ninety ten Democrat. It's, as
they call it, the San Francisco of North Carolina. So
I don't know. It's very very difficult to sit there
and see they're going to have to change some of
the laws. But I'm not super hung up either which
way how it's going to go. Hopefully they do, and
hopefully they try to give people an option to vote
aside from the normal ways.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
How is Trump looking in Georgia right now?
Speaker 1 (02:59):
So Georgia does not have party registration, which is a
very difficult thing because Pennsylvania does, North Carolina does. A
lot of states don't register voters by party, right, Michigan does,
in Texas does, in Virginia does, in Wisconsin doesn't. So
you go on racial estimates and geographical estimates. That's really
all you have, and you kind of have to sit
(03:20):
there and guess where that number is in Virginia, which
is not obviously not Georgia, and they vote to the
left of Georgia. But it's a lot of the similar
demographics ex. Surban and rural Democratic voters or people in
democratic places specifically rural blacks ex. Surban Hispanics have very
(03:41):
very poor tone out as of right now. If that
happens in Georgia as well, where the Black Belt, which
is southern Georgia heavily black. There's almost a line from
western Georgia to eastern Georgia where you'll see almost continuous
amount of black counties or sorry, Democratic counties. Those are
(04:01):
majority black, rural black counties. They become writer and red
over time. If those are down, which I don't know
if they exactly are, because early vote is just really
begun in Georgia. If those are down like they are
down in Virginia, that could bode well as to offset
any losses out of Atlanta or the Atlanta suburban region.
(04:22):
So it's still a little too early as that they're
intel and without party registration, we're not going to really
know how Republicans are showing up versus Democrats. It's basically
race and geography, and that's all we have to really
go on.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I want to ask about the key Midwest states Wisconsin
and Michigan here in a second. But first up from
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Speaker 1 (05:37):
At once again two states without any voter registration, so
it's very difficult to sit they're insay, but specifically on
geographical region, certainly the big cities Wayne County, Michigan, Minneapolis
and Minnempis Minnesota, rather Milwaukee and Dane County in Wisconsin
(05:59):
are having decently high early voter turnout. About one hundred
thousand people have voted in Wisconsin so far, many coming
out of the major cities, some coming out of the suburbs,
which are usuallyavily Republican. We don't know, it's just the beginning,
but one hundred thousand. They'll probably closer between two point
eight and three point one million votes cast out of Wisconsin,
(06:21):
so it's just the very tip of it. Rurals haven't
shown up yet, but we'll have to wait and see.
Pennsylvania looks to be the easiest of the three to flip.
It has certainly got the most Electoral College votes and
it is the most valuable for the election purposes, but
we'll have to wait and see where that goes. And
(06:41):
we'll have this wait and see how the youth vote
and the heavily Arab part portions of Michigan sit there
and show up and turn out, and we won't know
what they're party, how they're voting obviously until election day.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Do you think that Trump is in better shape in
Michigan or Wisconsin right now?
Speaker 1 (06:58):
I would say Wisconsin only because it is they vote
more frequently Republican than they do Democrat. There was a
Mitchell pull out today showing and a head to head
Trump was ahead of kamalaw by a point in the race.
Overall they retie. The New York Times seeing a poll
had I think Kamala up by one point. Everything is very,
(07:19):
very very close. If the polling error is the same
as twenty twenty, which I'm not saying it will be,
those will probably be a Trump's seeds. Trump is definitely
more competitive in this election than in any other previous
election cycle. It's just a big question of how where
is the polling off and how much is off? And
who is turning out? This is much more a turnout
election than is anything else, simply because Kamala and Trump
(07:42):
have very high favorability ratings, and given that in the
last two elections they both had very low favorability ratings,
both Biden and Hillary and Trump both times. Trump's got
a pretty high favorability rating, and so does Kamala right now.
So it's really about who's showing up and how frequently
they're showing up and if they can get their people out.
(08:02):
In Pennsylvania specifically, it looks like mid level propensity voters
are showing up to get an early apposity backalid In Virginia,
it looks that way for Republicans and lover pensity minorities,
especially in Virginia, which has the highest I think going
back to Virginia because it is the most early votes
cast out of any state over half a million, So
(08:23):
we can kind of really get a good sense of
where people are showing up, where they're not showing up. Virginia,
rural blacks, excert and Hispanics around like Prince William County
especially very very very low turnout as of right now,
and they are not the more likely election day voters,
So those are more likely early voters. So something shows
(08:44):
a trend sign, it's usually not alone in a single state.
It will carry on into other states.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Is it clear yet that well, Actually, I want to
I'll ask you this question a second about who Kamala
Harris is underperforming with relative to Biden. I want to
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Kamala relative to Biden performance with various groups, I mean
I'm asking about some I'm wondering, is she getting a
lot more female votes? How she doing with the black
(09:53):
vote relative to Biden?
Speaker 1 (09:54):
What are you seeing so in the polling Kamala, there's
no difference in the female vote from Hillary and Biden.
She's about fifteen points ahead. This is the current in
your time Sanipol, an average of most ad plus poll serve,
the Pew Research poll. She's really gotten very little movement
in bear to Biden, and the polls that show Trump
(10:16):
losing by four points versus a tide race is a
difference of not the female vote overall, it's the mail vote.
Is Trump winning the male vote by six which is
what he won against Biden, or is he winning it
by eleven, which is what he won against Hillary. That
is the difference between a four point spread and a
tide race. Because she is not advancing at all with
this where she's underperforming Biden. It looks like is certainly
(10:41):
some union polls, some poles of union workers, she seems
to be down among the black vote. She is down,
it is not a significantly down. She's about Trumps about
thirteen percent. She's about eighty to eighty five percent of
the of the black vote, which would mean that she's
maybe down like six or seven points from weight, which
(11:01):
is a big number, but not a huge number what
you would expect. She's slightly down with this spanning vote.
It is not an enormous downward slope, though it is
once again other five or six points. The only area
that Kamala is significantly ahead of where she was where
Democrats were in twenty twenty and in twenty sixteen is
among college educated whites. It's really the sole group and
(11:24):
even some polls that have non college educated whites where
the polls could be off. And I've written about this
a lot, is that older white Liberals are answering polls
at significantly higher levels than they actually would be voting in.
So in the New York Times Cena pol nationally it
has Trump winning seniors by six points. He won them
(11:47):
by four against Biden and nine against Hillary. So it's
right in the middle. It would make sense in an
election where the polls are tighter but he's not winning,
maybe like an a D plus two national environment where
the polls showed in Pennsylvania the New York Times Cenna
pol had had Kamala I had among seniors by four.
(12:08):
That is not ever going to have happen. Pennsylvania seniors
always vote to the right of seniors nationally, So what
it suggests to me is that a lot of these
polling institutions are over sampling liberal seniors and it's causing
the margins to be wider than they should be, especially
in the rust belt states where this has happened both
(12:30):
in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty. The silent Trump
voter a lot of times is really just white, older
liberals answering the phones and calling pollsters if they have
to to tell everyone how much they hate Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I've met some of those people, by the way, they
get tell you on those people exactly, yeah, how much
they hate Donald Trump. You you've walked down the street, like,
do you realize how much I hate Trump? Like I'm
just trying to walk my dog the Yeah, you've seen it. Senate,
how likely is it that there's Republican control now? I mean,
from what I can see, Tester is looking like he's
(13:07):
about to get beat as the incumbent in Montana. But
maybe that's a little too enthusiastic. Right now, what are
you seeing about Senate control?
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Yeah, I mean it's it's basically a fadea complete that
Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. It depends
the question is Bernie Marino Kenny upset and with Share Brown,
but Tesla looks gone. West Virginia will absolutely flip the
Republican hands. And Ohio is the big question mark. I
can go to fifty two Senate seats, Republican Senate seats
to forty eight, and then there is an open question
(13:38):
mark over like Michigan. Right, could Michigan flip Republican? I
think that's the next closest one after Ohio. And it's
really kind of a bit of a slog just because
Michigan is much bluer than than you know Ohio would be.
Let's say, but if it's possible, if Rogers can do it,
then that would bring it to fifty three. After that,
it's very hard to see a fifty four then unless
(14:00):
Republicans really just run the table. The polls are all
completely off and Trump wins very handily by a point
to two points in the Roscoe states of Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. Unless that happens, though it's looking like a
fifty one or fifty two seat Republican majority. The question
is can Burnham Marino get it over the line against
(14:20):
Shared Brown and holes are starting to swing in Bernie's favor.
As the late breaking numbers are coming in.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Is carry Lake going to lose in Arizona again?
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Oh, she is going to lose in an absolute landslide.
It's going to look like the first fifteen minutes of
saving Private Ryan. Yeah, it's not. It's she will be
the She is the Stacy Abrams of the Republican Party,
and it is about time to stop running those kinds
of people off for office over and over and over again.
And also somebody who is never, frankly in the state.
(14:52):
That is the biggest criticism I've heard about her repeatedly.
She's always in Florida, she's in another state, she's doing
media press, but she's never in Arizona. I've heard this
from time and again from Republican She's not fundraising, and
she cares a lot about being a personality and not
so much a poulty. But this will be There is
a very very very strong chance that Donald Trump wins
(15:16):
Arizona and Carry Lake loses Arizona, which will finally she
will not be able to sit there and say Arizona
was stolen from her, given that they voted for Donald Trump,
and then we could finally be rid of Carry Lake's
insanity that we've had to deal with for two elections.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
You're gonna get a lot of interesting comments on this
video from the Carry Lake fans. I can tell you that.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
It is the truth. I don't care if you don't
like me for it. It is what it is, and I
will stand.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
By that ker Dusky doesn't back down. I'm gonna ask
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percent off your first order when you use my name
buck as your coupon code. Mister Gridusky, one more for
you the oh. I want to ask actually about Kim
McCormick win against Casey in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
You know, I see the polls tightening and the Republicans
are certainly having a good absentee ballad drive. I'm not sure,
given just how much you know Casey is well liked
in that state, it could happen. It's not impossible. It's
a very hard slog I think that you're more likely
going to see a Republican win in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
(17:01):
But it is not impossible, and Republicans in Pennsylvania are
doing the work. It is showing in the fact that
listen in twenty twenty two, Republicans led Democrats in just
two counties in the absentee ballot results in before the
election was started, So they had such a heavy lead
that on election day in twenty twenty two, there was
(17:23):
almost no chance for Republicans to dig themselves out of
the hole. In twenty twenty twenty, during COVID, it was
about twelve counties as of right now, Republicans lead Democrats
in sixteen counties. They are rural counties, but they are
leading in the absentee vote. They shouldn't be ever leading
anywhere in the absentee vote. And that number sixteen is
gonna go to about twenty one or twenty two in
(17:44):
the next seven days. The way the absidy ballots are
already breaking, in the way the numbers are moving by
election day, in the next three weeks where apstey ballots
are being gathered, Republicans are going to very close, if
not meet their twenty twenty presidential numbers. Democrats are going
to get a half a million less in the absentee ballot. Now,
(18:04):
could they show up on election day? Possibly? But could
they not possibly? You know, I don't know. Maybe so.
The Philadelphia choirir had that story out yesterday saying that
working class blacks, Hispanics, and whites in Philadelphia are breaking
heavily towards Trump and Democrats are worried about it. I
talked to a Democrat analysis yesterday who said the working
(18:24):
class in Philadelphia itself, Philadelphia proper, is not working out
for Democrats the way they did. And just before I
went on your podcast, today, the Firefighters Union just announced
they were not endorsing Kamala and that was the first
union to endorse Biden in twenty twenty. So could he win?
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Is he favored to know? But it's not an impossibility.
McCormick would one hundred percent do it, and it wouldn't
be stunningly shocking. Let's say, if you know Carr related it,
that would be an insane surprise. McCormick winning it would
be a it would be a come from behind victory.
But it's not an impossibility.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Who's going to control the House.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
Whoever wins the presidency. It's just going to be a
matter of that. Whoever wins the Trump can win the presidency,
he will control the House representatives. Owins the president, she
shilled probably control the House representatives. It will be on
that margin, don't I think the bigger question is what
does Donald Trump do in very blue states? Can his
(19:22):
margin in New York go from D plus twenty three
and twenty twenty to D plus fourteen as some polls
have suggested. Some poles have been winning five or six
more points in California, four or five more points in
New Jersey, a couple more points in Illinois. The House
majority for Republicans runs through blue states. If he can
pick up a couple more swing districts and blue states
(19:44):
Mike Garcia and Mike Lawler in New York, Mike Garstina
in California, Illinois, seventeen in Illinois. That those races, if
he can win a couple of them, Joe Kent race
in Washington's third, if he can win a couple of them,
he will absolutely control the House. But those margins in
those blue states would be very, very curious.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Ryan Gardowski, go check out the National Populist newsletter. You
can subscribe on substack. Ryan, thanks so much man, good
to see you.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
You too,
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hey guys, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Graduski with us.
He is the author of the National Populist newsletter on
Substack great analysis. There go subscribe Ryan. Who is winning
this election? Where by? How much? What's going on?
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, the three states that matter the most right now
are Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins all
three of those a lot, but third three of those
states he's got in the bag, he's going to win.
If he loses any of those three states, it becomes
much much more difficult. I feel very bullish on Pennsylvania
given that Republicans are overperforming an absentee requests round twenty
(00:58):
twenty two about one hundred and one thousand more Republican
absentee requests since the midterms are in. In Pennsylvania, Democrats
are down over fifty thousand vote. So even though Democrats lead,
which are always going to lead an absentee ballots, Republicans
have a much bigger margin. Republicans are probably going to
(01:18):
get very close, if not surpass their twenty twenty numbers.
Democrats are not even going to get close to They're
probably about a half a million sure their twenty twenty numbers.
Republicans will probably hit their twenty twenty numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
So Pennsylvania is looking good. Do you have concerns about
the ability of some of these places that have been
hardest hit Western North Carolina and others to be able
to get people to, you know, just to be able
to vote period right, be able to get there to
the polling place or do you think that they'll be
able to figure that out before election day?
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Sure, it depends on what the laws are. They might
amend some of the laws to allow people to vote
in different counties than when they reside. And I don't
exactly know every place that was hit. I know all
of western North Carolina wasn't hit equally. And where it
comes to the votes, the city of Asheville and the
county that Asheville sides and gives about a thirty five
(02:12):
thousand vote majority to Democrats serving to Biden. The surrounding
counties give about a thirty five thousand vote lead to Trump.
It could end up being a wash depending on how
that was not meant to be a joke at wash,
but it may end up being even given the fact
that Asheville is so liberal. I mean within the city
(02:34):
confines of Asheville, it's like ninety ten Democrat. It's, as
they call it, the San Francisco of North Carolina. So
I don't know. It's very very difficult to sit there
and see they're going to have to change some of
the laws. But I'm not super hung up either which
way how it's going to go. Hopefully they do, and
hopefully they try to give people an option to vote
aside from the normal ways.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
How is Trump looking in Georgia right now?
Speaker 1 (02:59):
So Georgia does not have party registration, which is a
very difficult thing because Pennsylvania does, North Carolina does. A
lot of states don't register voters by party, right, Michigan does,
in Texas does, in Virginia does, in Wisconsin doesn't. So
you go on racial estimates and geographical estimates. That's really
all you have, and you kind of have to sit
(03:20):
there and guess where that number is in Virginia, which
is not obviously not Georgia, and they vote to the
left of Georgia. But it's a lot of the similar
demographics ex. Surban and rural Democratic voters or people in
democratic places specifically rural blacks ex. Surban Hispanics have very
(03:41):
very poor tone out as of right now. If that
happens in Georgia as well, where the Black Belt, which
is southern Georgia heavily black. There's almost a line from
western Georgia to eastern Georgia where you'll see almost continuous
amount of black counties or sorry, Democratic counties. Those are
(04:01):
majority black, rural black counties. They become writer and red
over time. If those are down, which I don't know
if they exactly are, because early vote is just really
begun in Georgia. If those are down like they are
down in Virginia, that could bode well as to offset
any losses out of Atlanta or the Atlanta suburban region.
(04:22):
So it's still a little too early as that they're
intel and without party registration, we're not going to really
know how Republicans are showing up versus Democrats. It's basically
race and geography, and that's all we have to really
go on.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I want to ask about the key Midwest states Wisconsin
and Michigan here in a second. But first up from
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(04:56):
gold or silver is easier than you'd think. You can
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thing you do, Ryan, Yeah, look.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
At once again two states without any voter registration, so
it's very difficult to sit they're insay, but specifically on
geographical region, certainly the big cities Wayne County, Michigan, Minneapolis
and Minnempis Minnesota, rather Milwaukee and Dane County in Wisconsin
(05:59):
are having decently high early voter turnout. About one hundred
thousand people have voted in Wisconsin so far, many coming
out of the major cities, some coming out of the suburbs,
which are usuallyavily Republican. We don't know, it's just the beginning,
but one hundred thousand. They'll probably closer between two point
eight and three point one million votes cast out of Wisconsin,
(06:21):
so it's just the very tip of it. Rurals haven't
shown up yet, but we'll have to wait and see.
Pennsylvania looks to be the easiest of the three to flip.
It has certainly got the most Electoral College votes and
it is the most valuable for the election purposes, but
we'll have to wait and see where that goes. And
(06:41):
we'll have this wait and see how the youth vote
and the heavily Arab part portions of Michigan sit there
and show up and turn out, and we won't know
what they're party, how they're voting obviously until election day.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Do you think that Trump is in better shape in
Michigan or Wisconsin right now?
Speaker 1 (06:58):
I would say Wisconsin only because it is they vote
more frequently Republican than they do Democrat. There was a
Mitchell pull out today showing and a head to head
Trump was ahead of kamalaw by a point in the race.
Overall they retie. The New York Times seeing a poll
had I think Kamala up by one point. Everything is very,
(07:19):
very very close. If the polling error is the same
as twenty twenty, which I'm not saying it will be,
those will probably be a Trump's seeds. Trump is definitely
more competitive in this election than in any other previous
election cycle. It's just a big question of how where
is the polling off and how much is off? And
who is turning out? This is much more a turnout
election than is anything else, simply because Kamala and Trump
(07:42):
have very high favorability ratings, and given that in the
last two elections they both had very low favorability ratings,
both Biden and Hillary and Trump both times. Trump's got
a pretty high favorability rating, and so does Kamala right now.
So it's really about who's showing up and how frequently
they're showing up and if they can get their people out.
(08:02):
In Pennsylvania specifically, it looks like mid level propensity voters
are showing up to get an early apposity backalid In Virginia,
it looks that way for Republicans and lover pensity minorities,
especially in Virginia, which has the highest I think going
back to Virginia because it is the most early votes
cast out of any state over half a million, So
(08:23):
we can kind of really get a good sense of
where people are showing up, where they're not showing up. Virginia,
rural blacks, excert and Hispanics around like Prince William County
especially very very very low turnout as of right now,
and they are not the more likely election day voters,
So those are more likely early voters. So something shows
(08:44):
a trend sign, it's usually not alone in a single state.
It will carry on into other states.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Is it clear yet that well, Actually, I want to
I'll ask you this question a second about who Kamala
Harris is underperforming with relative to Biden. I want to
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Kamala relative to Biden performance with various groups, I mean
I'm asking about some I'm wondering, is she getting a
lot more female votes? How she doing with the black
(09:53):
vote relative to Biden?
Speaker 1 (09:54):
What are you seeing so in the polling Kamala, there's
no difference in the female vote from Hillary and Biden.
She's about fifteen points ahead. This is the current in
your time Sanipol, an average of most ad plus poll serve,
the Pew Research poll. She's really gotten very little movement
in bear to Biden, and the polls that show Trump
(10:16):
losing by four points versus a tide race is a
difference of not the female vote overall, it's the mail vote.
Is Trump winning the male vote by six which is
what he won against Biden, or is he winning it
by eleven, which is what he won against Hillary. That
is the difference between a four point spread and a
tide race. Because she is not advancing at all with
this where she's underperforming Biden. It looks like is certainly
(10:41):
some union polls, some poles of union workers, she seems
to be down among the black vote. She is down,
it is not a significantly down. She's about Trumps about
thirteen percent. She's about eighty to eighty five percent of
the of the black vote, which would mean that she's
maybe down like six or seven points from weight, which
(11:01):
is a big number, but not a huge number what
you would expect. She's slightly down with this spanning vote.
It is not an enormous downward slope, though it is
once again other five or six points. The only area
that Kamala is significantly ahead of where she was where
Democrats were in twenty twenty and in twenty sixteen is
among college educated whites. It's really the sole group and
(11:24):
even some polls that have non college educated whites where
the polls could be off. And I've written about this
a lot, is that older white Liberals are answering polls
at significantly higher levels than they actually would be voting in.
So in the New York Times Cena pol nationally it
has Trump winning seniors by six points. He won them
(11:47):
by four against Biden and nine against Hillary. So it's
right in the middle. It would make sense in an
election where the polls are tighter but he's not winning,
maybe like an a D plus two national environment where
the polls showed in Pennsylvania the New York Times Cenna
pol had had Kamala I had among seniors by four.
(12:08):
That is not ever going to have happen. Pennsylvania seniors
always vote to the right of seniors nationally, So what
it suggests to me is that a lot of these
polling institutions are over sampling liberal seniors and it's causing
the margins to be wider than they should be, especially
in the rust belt states where this has happened both
(12:30):
in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty. The silent Trump
voter a lot of times is really just white, older
liberals answering the phones and calling pollsters if they have
to to tell everyone how much they hate Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
I've met some of those people, by the way, they
get tell you on those people exactly, yeah, how much
they hate Donald Trump. You you've walked down the street, like,
do you realize how much I hate Trump? Like I'm
just trying to walk my dog the Yeah, you've seen it. Senate,
how likely is it that there's Republican control now? I mean,
from what I can see, Tester is looking like he's
(13:07):
about to get beat as the incumbent in Montana. But
maybe that's a little too enthusiastic. Right now, what are
you seeing about Senate control?
Speaker 1 (13:16):
Yeah, I mean it's it's basically a fadea complete that
Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. It depends
the question is Bernie Marino Kenny upset and with Share Brown,
but Tesla looks gone. West Virginia will absolutely flip the
Republican hands. And Ohio is the big question mark. I
can go to fifty two Senate seats, Republican Senate seats
to forty eight, and then there is an open question
(13:38):
mark over like Michigan. Right, could Michigan flip Republican? I
think that's the next closest one after Ohio. And it's
really kind of a bit of a slog just because
Michigan is much bluer than than you know Ohio would be.
Let's say, but if it's possible, if Rogers can do it,
then that would bring it to fifty three. After that,
it's very hard to see a fifty four then unless
(14:00):
Republicans really just run the table. The polls are all
completely off and Trump wins very handily by a point
to two points in the Roscoe states of Pennsylvania, Michigan,
and Wisconsin. Unless that happens, though it's looking like a
fifty one or fifty two seat Republican majority. The question
is can Burnham Marino get it over the line against
(14:20):
Shared Brown and holes are starting to swing in Bernie's favor.
As the late breaking numbers are coming in.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Is carry Lake going to lose in Arizona again?
Speaker 1 (14:30):
Oh, she is going to lose in an absolute landslide.
It's going to look like the first fifteen minutes of
saving Private Ryan. Yeah, it's not. It's she will be
the She is the Stacy Abrams of the Republican Party,
and it is about time to stop running those kinds
of people off for office over and over and over again.
And also somebody who is never, frankly in the state.
(14:52):
That is the biggest criticism I've heard about her repeatedly.
She's always in Florida, she's in another state, she's doing
media press, but she's never in Arizona. I've heard this
from time and again from Republican She's not fundraising, and
she cares a lot about being a personality and not
so much a poulty. But this will be There is
a very very very strong chance that Donald Trump wins
(15:16):
Arizona and Carry Lake loses Arizona, which will finally she
will not be able to sit there and say Arizona
was stolen from her, given that they voted for Donald Trump,
and then we could finally be rid of Carry Lake's
insanity that we've had to deal with for two elections.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
You're gonna get a lot of interesting comments on this
video from the Carry Lake fans. I can tell you that.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
It is the truth. I don't care if you don't
like me for it. It is what it is, and I
will stand.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
By that ker Dusky doesn't back down. I'm gonna ask
you one more on the house here in just a
second and what you see going on there. But you
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percent off your first order when you use my name
buck as your coupon code. Mister Gridusky, one more for
you the oh. I want to ask actually about Kim
McCormick win against Casey in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
You know, I see the polls tightening and the Republicans
are certainly having a good absentee ballad drive. I'm not sure,
given just how much you know Casey is well liked
in that state, it could happen. It's not impossible. It's
a very hard slog I think that you're more likely
going to see a Republican win in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
(17:01):
But it is not impossible, and Republicans in Pennsylvania are
doing the work. It is showing in the fact that
listen in twenty twenty two, Republicans led Democrats in just
two counties in the absentee ballot results in before the
election was started, So they had such a heavy lead
that on election day in twenty twenty two, there was
(17:23):
almost no chance for Republicans to dig themselves out of
the hole. In twenty twenty twenty, during COVID, it was
about twelve counties as of right now, Republicans lead Democrats
in sixteen counties. They are rural counties, but they are
leading in the absentee vote. They shouldn't be ever leading
anywhere in the absentee vote. And that number sixteen is
gonna go to about twenty one or twenty two in
(17:44):
the next seven days. The way the absidy ballots are
already breaking, in the way the numbers are moving by
election day, in the next three weeks where apstey ballots
are being gathered, Republicans are going to very close, if
not meet their twenty twenty presidential numbers. Democrats are going
to get a half a million less in the absentee ballot. Now,
(18:04):
could they show up on election day? Possibly? But could
they not possibly? You know, I don't know. Maybe so.
The Philadelphia choirir had that story out yesterday saying that
working class blacks, Hispanics, and whites in Philadelphia are breaking
heavily towards Trump and Democrats are worried about it. I
talked to a Democrat analysis yesterday who said the working
(18:24):
class in Philadelphia itself, Philadelphia proper, is not working out
for Democrats the way they did. And just before I
went on your podcast, today, the Firefighters Union just announced
they were not endorsing Kamala and that was the first
union to endorse Biden in twenty twenty. So could he win?
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Is he favored to know? But it's not an impossibility.
McCormick would one hundred percent do it, and it wouldn't
be stunningly shocking. Let's say, if you know Carr related it,
that would be an insane surprise. McCormick winning it would
be a it would be a come from behind victory.
But it's not an impossibility.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
Who's going to control the House.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
Whoever wins the presidency. It's just going to be a
matter of that. Whoever wins the Trump can win the presidency,
he will control the House representatives. Owins the president, she
shilled probably control the House representatives. It will be on
that margin, don't I think the bigger question is what
does Donald Trump do in very blue states? Can his
(19:22):
margin in New York go from D plus twenty three
and twenty twenty to D plus fourteen as some polls
have suggested. Some poles have been winning five or six
more points in California, four or five more points in
New Jersey, a couple more points in Illinois. The House
majority for Republicans runs through blue states. If he can
pick up a couple more swing districts and blue states
(19:44):
Mike Garcia and Mike Lawler in New York, Mike Garstina
in California, Illinois, seventeen in Illinois. That those races, if
he can win a couple of them, Joe Kent race
in Washington's third, if he can win a couple of them,
he will absolutely control the House. But those margins in
those blue states would be very, very curious.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
Ryan Gardowski, go check out the National Populist newsletter. You
can subscribe on substack. Ryan, thanks so much man, good
to see you.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
You too,
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