September 11, 2024 • 36 mins
C&B’s favorite data guru, Ryan Girdusky, joins the show for a deep dive into the latest election data. Viewership numbers down for debates this year. Will there be a second debate? ABC News moderators are set for life after doing their job at debate. Not telling the truth about the debate doesn't help anyone. Ohio governor sends state troopers and cash to Springfield. Caller ends the show.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Third hour play and Buck gets going right now. Our
friend Ryan Gurdusky joins us. He is the author of
the National's populist newsletter on Substack, also founded of the
seventeen seventy six Project Pack.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Ryan, good to have you as always, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Let's take a look first at the numbers as you
see them today, the day after the debate. What are
the debate numbers and what are the poll numbers looking
like as much as we can dive into that data.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
So in the debate numbers, we'll start with that. The
CNN instapole results had Kamala winning the debate with sixty
three percent and Trump having thirty seven percent. Thirty seven
percent of viewers said Trump won sixty three percent. Can
I say, Kamala one? This is fairly in line with
almost every single debate Trump has ever had CNN instapoles.
(00:53):
That's chem I mean, which are not you know signs?
Because it's right afterwards only among viewers, Trump will get
twenty seven percent versus Hillary's sixty two percent in twenty sixteen,
and in twenty twenty the first debate with Biden, he
got twenty eight percent to Biden's sixty percent. Trump is
not a very good debater, never really has been. With
(01:15):
the sole exception of the last debate with Joe Biden,
Trump has never won a single debate in a CNN instapole.
Going into how he's performing election wise, according to all
the major poll aggregate websites, in the national polls, Trump
is either behind from one point to three points. And
(01:37):
that's according to poll agrogi gets including ad Silver, including
five thirty eight, the Economist Race to the White House
Vodor hub Jaje k forecast. They all have Kamala with
a lead, but it's a slight lead. It's a lead
between one and three points. As I said, if there
is a pera in Comma's favor, the same way there
(01:58):
was a polling error in Joe Biden's favor in twenty
twenty and in Hillary's favor in twenty sixteen, although hillaries
was in the margin of error that would put Kamala
at about a point ahead of Trump nationally, which is
what you're looking at. The last three major polls that
came out all within the span of last seventy two
(02:21):
hours or last week. Rather the New York Times Sianna Pole,
which had Trump up one point, the Marquete pole which
had horsed up by one point. I was sorry, that
was the Maris pole that had a comma up one point.
The and then the Pew Research poll which had at
a dead tie are all telling about the same story,
which is a close national race.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Ryan, Isn't this race just gonna come down to who
wins Pennsylvania? If you had to say, I want to
know one state and I told you the exact results
for Pennsylvania, couldn't you tell almost entirely based on how
Pennsylvania votes, what's going to happen in the national race.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
So I wrote this in the National Populis Substack, my
Nationalpis newsletter on substack. There are three states that will
decide this election. Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Those are
the three. If I guarantee whatever happens in those three states,
there is no way for the winner of those three
states to lose nationally. So, yeah, Pennsylvania is one of
(03:21):
the three, and it is the large electoral getter of
the three, most amount of Electoral College votes of the three.
But those are the three that decide. They're all on
these coasts.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And you would sorry, sorry to cut you off. But
Trump would be in the lead in Georgia and North
Carolina based on general consensus, gambling markets, all those things,
and Pennsylvania basically is a straight toss up.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
In most of the ones that factor in things like
polling errors. North Carolina and Georgia are within Trump or
Trump a very small lead, and have Harris has a
very small lead in Pennsylvania. They average out that North
Carolina and Georgia have about a lead of about half
a point for Trump and lead for Harris by one
(04:07):
point in Pennsylvania. But I will mind, I will sit
there and say North Carolina and Pennsylvania polsters usually oversample
Democrats in these polls. Georgia they usually over sample Republicans. Georgia,
like many other states, including Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, do not
register voters by party. They just register to vote and
(04:29):
they vote in the primaries in which they want to vote.
In Pennsylvania and North Carolina registered voters by party. It's
a lot easier than sit there and identify voters based
upon you know, if they're actually a Democrat or actually
a Republican in those states, but Georgia, typically the polls
usually overly favor Republicans, and in North Carolina and Pennsylvania
(04:49):
they overly favor Democrats.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
So Ryan, as far as you can tell and as
far as the numbers are are speaking to this, are
we essentially guaranteed a very tight election in terms of
just the vote totals in the states that matter. When
all said and DONO mean, is there any way that
you could see this turning into some kind of a route?
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I mean, could there? Yeah? Nate Silver has this as
a route. They have Trump winning every single swing state.
Most other predictors say it will split. The Sun Belt
will go for Trump, the Ross Belt will go for Kamala.
I do not believe that, though. I think that there
is a massive polling era, as I've written about this
over and over again, where they are overpolling old liberal
voters who have a heavy response bias. Their answering polls
(05:38):
are too high of a number. In the Survey USA
and Quinnepiac pull, I think Survey USA had Trump up
by five among North Carolina seniors and Quiney Piac had
I think Kama up eight or nine among North Carolina seniors.
That's a demographic that is heavily Republican. Trump won it
by twenty points last time, and I think by about
nineteen points the time before. A heavy, heavy, heavy Republican demographic.
(06:02):
There's no way on this planet that it's going to
even resemble close to that polls. And why I say
seniors over like African Americans or Hispanics, which are a
very small sample size in the sub sect. Seniors are
about third thirty percent of twenty five percent, so it's
a very large sample size. It is a very small
margin of error. So when you're talking about a twenty
(06:24):
five thirty point twenty point difference between elections and polls
with subsets of cross tabs, you're looking at a real
response bias. And this was true of the response bias
in twenty twenty and in twenty sixteen. The illusion of
the silent Trump voter often comes from the fact that seniors,
old liberal seniors are oversampled in these polls. They want
(06:48):
pollsters to know their opinion. Old liberals love to tell
you their opinions. At this point, they're calling polsters and like, hey,
do you want to hear my opinion on this election?
That is what we're seeing over and over and over again.
I think that's where you're going to sit there and
see Trump gain a point. Nationally is in the senior vote,
and that's where states like Pennsylvania North Carolina could very
(07:08):
well easily decided, and none of these holes have the debate.
You know in if factored in, Kamala very well likely
may see a bump because of Trump's very poor performance
in the debate last night, But that will who knows
how long that will last. For it they typically do
not last all the way to election day. So a
(07:30):
lot of people have lost their first debates went on
to win their election. Barack Obama, Donald Trump, George W.
Bush lost his first debate pretty badly, and they all
won their election. So it doesn't mean, you know, it's
definite for that it will definitely decide the election.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
The answer may be yes, But our buck and eye
crazy for looking in the Midwest and saying just on
our belief I think he and I are aligned on this.
Old white people in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in particular
are not going to support Kamala as much as they
(08:08):
supported Biden the Scranton Joe appeal. While we may think
it was bs based on the way he governed, did
persuade some old white moderate voters in those big ten states.
That's how he won in twenty twenty. There's no again,
I think there's no way that Kamala gets that same
level of support. So this part of this is is
(08:31):
there a black or Hispanic vote that she's gaining or
could that be dispositive for you in the Midwest.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
So there's two groups that will change it for Kamala.
One is gen Z because there are millions of new
voters that were not registered to vote four years ago
that will be tilting heavily towards Kamala. That was a
huge fact in the twenty twenty two election, and abortion
is a major issue for them. The second is that
there have been three point three million new naturalized citizens
(09:02):
legal immigrants who vote two and a half or three
to one Democrat since the twenty twenty election. President Biden
ramped up the speed in which people became citizens for
a reason they vote heavily Democrat. During the last year
of the last few years of Obama's presidency, where he
(09:22):
was pushing for refugee resettlement, like the same way that
Biden where he's pushing a refugee resettlement is oftentimes in
swing states. So that's why you see huge clusters of
migrant voters going to swing state places where you're like,
this isn't weird. It's not like there's a huge Haitian
population in Springfield, Ohio. Now they're being purposely put into
(09:43):
swing states, and three point three million new people who
could vote, who will overwhelmingly be voting Democrat, as well
as the millions of new Gen Z voters will definitely
play a huge factor in it. The thing that they
need to sit there and to change that is they
need to increase voter turn out among non college educated whites.
Non college educated whites have the and I've said this
(10:05):
on your show before, have the worst voter participation among
any demographic except for recent immigrants. They do not vote
in high numbers. If they voted as often as whites
with a college degree, did it, I mean Oregon would
be a red state. It wouldn't even be a close election.
Virginia would be a red state. It's just a matter
(10:25):
of turnout. Trump is going to improve performance among Hispanics
and among Asians and among blacks, but this election is
boiled down to the white vote. Do whites without a
college degree turn up do they show up for Trump
and do they feel like Kamla does not have their
best interests?
Speaker 1 (10:42):
What do you think is the most important focus the
Trump campaign can have between now an election day. So
that we don't have a super sad day coming up
in November, we have to have Ryan On have a
big cry session.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
You know.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
I think that Kamala Harris, at the age of sixty,
had a major life event where she changed all of
her beliefs overnight. Trump could have cornered her on all
those things. And I'm not talking about just fracking, which
was the issue they brought up over and over again.
She was radical on things like reparations, which is an
enormously unpopular idea. Kamala Harris supported a multi trillion dollar
(11:21):
reparation plan for the descendants of slaves. This is something
that's overwhelming and not only opposed by white voters, but
it's opposed by Asians and Hispanic voters who feel like
they were never part of the Civil War or anything
that followed it. I would bring up that, I would
bring up the fact that she was very radical left
on a number of issues, from taxes to the Green
(11:42):
New Deal to gun confiscation. She had a major life
change in one thousand days where she changed all of
her fundamental beliefs. She went from being a Bernie Sanders
Democrat to being you know, a pro choice George W.
Bush rep Republican in one thousand days, when she is
(12:02):
close to being a senior citizen. Life transformations don't usually
happen that free, at at that age, that quickly, but
for some reason, she did. And I think cornering her
on who she actually is, who is the real Kamala Harris,
is the essential thing because the beliefs that she had
in twenty nineteen were so unpopular, not even Democrats would
vote for her. And that's what you need to because
(12:24):
that's and that's why she's running basically as a pro
choice Republican nowadays. I mean she's about military, about cutting spending,
about you know, increasing child child tax credit.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
It's all about building a wall. She wants to build
a wall, right, she.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Wants to build the wall. I mean, this is the
new Kamala Harris, a one thousand day life transformation. It's
never been seen before. And I think exposing that is
what she needed to sit.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
There and say, you mentioned young voters. Taylor Swift endorses
right after the debate. It's clearly staged. But what is
the impact of someone like Taylor Swift? Do you buy
into celebrity endorsements moving anything?
Speaker 3 (13:09):
I mean, back when celebrity was a real thing, like
when Oprah endorsed Obama, it was a real thing, but
there was media was much more organized around very few people,
what real celebrities were. Taylorswood is a real celebrity. I
don't know how. I don't I don't know what appeal
Taylor has with especially young people, the way that people,
(13:33):
maybe people are older think to this. Taylor SWI was
almost middle aged. I mean, she's not twenty one anymore.
She's not Charlie XCX or or people that younger people
are always listening to.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
She TikTok knowledge no.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
But she's been there for two she's been around for
two decades. She's not a young person. She's young, relatively young,
but she's not young young. She's not a twenty one
year old who excites people. And the media is not
where everyone watched the same nine to ten things and
that was how we consume media. I don't know how
much how much appeal it has. I looked at people
(14:09):
that I knew on Instagram, maybe I didn't know their
opinions and when they liked who liked it? Everyone I know.
Who I saw who liked it, I knew was a
liberal who was voting for her. So I don't know
if that really, you know, will change anyone's vote. Maybe
it will motivate some people to go out and get
out a vote. She's clearly not campaigning for her as
of anything I've ever seen yet. And it didn't help
celebrities in twenty sixteen when they were all saying they
(14:32):
are campaigning heavily for Hillary Clinton. And you know, it's
not like celebrities were you, like, supported George W.
Speaker 6 (14:40):
Bush.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
We've never really seen uh, celebrities in the modern age
support Republican So I.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Remember that.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Celebrity Remember the celebrity montage they did for Hillary with
the fight song, and they had like, yeah, the level
of cringe.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
So I watched that like once a month.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah, yeah, it's still very good. Brian ger Dusky, everybody,
if you want to know what's going on, follow him.
Go to the National Populace newsletter on substack.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Ryan. Always great to have you.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
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Speaker 2 (16:33):
On the Sunday Hang Podcast with Clay and Buck.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Find it in their podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay
Travis Bought Sexton Show. We will discuss this a bit
more when we come back, but I want to hit
you with this data. Fifty one point two million people
watched Biden Trump. That was down about thirty percent from
the audience for the first debate in twenty only. Fifty
(17:02):
seven point seven million debate viewers right now appear to
have watched last night between Trump and Kamala. That's also
down a massive amount over twenty twenty. To me, Buck,
this data reflects that a lot of people have already
made up their mind and maybe tuning out many of
(17:24):
the details associated with the debates. Because those are relatively
small numbers relative to historic standards. Maybe that suggests also
the overall number of voters is going to be down.
We'll talk about that a bit more and whether there's
going to be more debates when we come back here
on the flip side in a moment. But in the meantime,
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Speaker 2 (18:51):
It happens.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Now, where is it all heading? My friends VR in
almost mid September. Here we got an election coming up
less than two months away. I can't believe how this
is all coming together. It feels like with each passing day,
the days are getting shorter. On this well, I guess
technically they are getting shorter, right because of the light
(19:14):
you know, daylight savings. But you know what I mean, yes,
not even a metaphor not even a metaphor just a
real thing. The days are getting shorter in every sense,
and I think that we're getting closer and closer to
what will certainly be a tense election day. I still
feel good about things. I'm not too concerned. Trump here,
this has cut twenty three. He says that they we
(19:35):
didn't really get into this play. We'll get in a
little more. That they want a second debate because they lost.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Play twenty three. You commit to a second debate with
Kamala Harris.
Speaker 5 (19:45):
Believe I can debate because she lost tonight ver eventley,
so they won. They immediately called for second debate because
they lost.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
So we'll you don't think.
Speaker 5 (19:54):
About that, but she immediately called for a second look.
We're looking at Paul's We're looking at it both the
worst ball that we've had with seventy one that I
see seventy to like twenty four, twenty five.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
So I see this to two ways.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Right now, it hasn't been set yet, right they haven't
officially officially, it sounds like the campaigns are leaning toward
a second debate. We also, I should just note as
an aside here, we have the vice presidential debate coming
up on October one between JD Vance and Tim Walls.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
I think that he's going to be very good. JD.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Van's going to be very good in the debate. I
don't think anybody cares about that vice president debate. I really,
I just don't think that it's just a it's a
side show and I don't even know why they're having it.
I mean, for JD it's good. I guess that people
get to look at him for the future. But you know,
it's it's not gonna matter. I mean, I'll watch it
because this is our job, but you know, I wouldn't
(20:59):
recommend any if you watch it, Like we'll tell you
what happens. I promise they'll waste your time. But the
second presidential debate would be a bigger deal. And you
know Trump's analysis here. He's Trump, so he sees things
a certain way that tends to be favorable to all
things Trump. Uh, there's two ways that I could see
this play. On the one hand, wanting another debate is
(21:21):
an admission that the Kamala campaign is still behind. But
there's also the other hand, Kamala's campaign may see this
as a way to try to make up some more
of those points because they think they did some of
that last night.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
What do you think.
Speaker 4 (21:40):
I I think who moderates This is maybe the determinive
factor of whether I would do another debate if I
were Trump. I don't think he benefits. He's already done CNN,
He's now done ABC, two different networks that clearly hate him.
The vice presidential debate is on NBC. I don't think
(22:01):
he benefits from going into the lions Den again. If
I were Trump and I were advising him, I would
say I did CNN, I did ABC. Those are left
leaning media outlets. I will do Fox News, as he
has proposed before. I will do Fox News on October eleventh,
(22:22):
if you show and I would take the I would
take it now, meaning I would put that out there
in the public today, because then it's like, hey, here,
I agreed to your prescriptions. I've agreed to this. I'll
do Fox News on October tenth or whatever date it is,
and I'm going to show up and do a town hall.
(22:42):
If you don't show up, I'm showing up either way.
And then it puts the onus on Kamalo. Will she
go on Fox News? I think the answer is no,
and then you get into wrangling over debate terms and
you can see how the polling looks and make a
decision then on whether or not you want to do it.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
That's how I would play it.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
And this is gonna sound a little whiny, but I'm
just gonna say it because I think it needs to
be said. You know what's unfair about all this too.
If Kamala went on Fox News, yes, it would be
a fair debate. Our team just won't do that. They
would There will not be a fire everyone, There will
not be a Fox News ambush.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
The anchors, if they would choose, would run it fair.
They'd run it straight.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
And we all know this and this is just one
of these they're willing to, you know, hit you in
the ribs when the ref isn't looking and our team isn't.
Speaker 2 (23:32):
I don't know what else to say, but that's true,
the truth.
Speaker 4 (23:35):
Yeah, Martha McCollum and Brett Bayer are who Trump suggested.
I can guarantee you that they would be straight down
the middle and they would be completely fair.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
In fact, the only the complaints about them because of
the lopside in an insane way that the Democrats view
this stuff. The complaints about them would be why didn't
they fact check fact check Trump's complaints that fashion and
Jake Tapper got from the left right. I mean you
so running, Just to be clear, running a straight and
(24:06):
fair debate is always unacceptable to Democrats, especially when it
comes to Trump. If you just ask questions and let
the people talk who are the candidates? That is unacceptable
to Democrats. They will complain about that.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
I think that's important because it also ties in with
larger societal free speech codes. They're angry that Elon Musk
on Twitter slash x is just allowing people to say
what they think. They don't want a free and open
forum where candidates can make arguments, and the American public
(24:43):
can decide which arguments they find more compelling. They demand
a referee that is going to put his or her
hands on the scales in their favor. We're not even
arguing for that. We're just saying, hey, let's have an
open forum. You and I came on and said after
the CNN debate, hey, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash pretty
much stayed out of the fray. They let Joe Biden
(25:06):
and Donald Trump go after each other, and the goal
is to give people more information. If the same thing
is true of this debate, then we would have come
on and we would have said, hey, you know, it
was a fair fight. They stayed out of the way. Instead,
Lindsay Davis and David Muir decided to make themselves really
strong parts of the debate. Here's the thing that's really
(25:27):
a kick in the teeth to me, Buck. In so doing,
they made themselves millions of dollars out to say their
contract extension ever never get fired.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Their contract extensions were a done deal. After last night's debate.
Muhr is probably making twenty million a year, twenty five
million a year, something like that.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (25:50):
What the I don't even know the other lady's name,
but ill Lindsay Davis. I have no idea what she
makes and they're never getting fired. They have lifetime tenure
at ABC News.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
Now.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Yeah, so this is always remember this for Democrats. They
take care of their team. They take care of their side,
and that is why they get the outcomes that they do.
So and on our side, sometimes people do the good deed,
they show bravery and courage and character, and everyone's like, well,
I don't know, I guess their career is ruined. Like
maybe they'll open up, you know, a pawn shop somewhere
(26:19):
so they'll figure it out. You know, we don't take
care of our team the same way. It's one of
our I know, it sounds like a little thing. It's
actually one of the biggest failings we have because in
this in this environment where Democrats run the politics of
personal destruction using the Internet and everything else in a
way that you know, is way beyond what they could
do in the past, being able to ruin someone's career,
in their livelihood because they're a political threat to you
(26:41):
very powerful.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
Oh look at what they did to Trump. I mean
when Democrat presidents move out of office, they get lifetime sinecures. Heck,
even Joe Biden was making millions of dollars and he
was only a VP. Trump is president, leaves office. They
won't even play pro golf tournaments at his horses. The
PGA Tour pulls pulls out on the PGA Championship and
(27:04):
they try to put him in prison for the rest
of his life. I mean, it's not even just you
don't get a golden parachute. It's that they try to
put you in a jail cell. It is true. And
and these guys, I mean, that's why it's so disgusting
to me. David Muir and Lindsay Davis, they now are
taken care of it. And we didn't even hardly talked
about this, But the president of ABC News is a
(27:27):
thirty year friend of Kamala Harris, yep, thirty years.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
They have been best.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
To introduced Kamala to the first husband guy or whatever.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
The second d a girl I think her name is
Dana Walden. You guys in the studio Kip, Sorry, didn't
she introduced to the Kamala?
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Yeah? Yeah, I think that's right. And their they're bosom buddies.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
From La who hang out together all the time, have
been friends for thirty years, and she runs the network
that gets the debate and you don't think that Dayvid
Muir and Lindsey Davis know that their boss is best
friends with one of the two people that they're doing
the debate of. I mean again, the rig job was
(28:09):
in effect, and I get the if you've listened to
the show, you go back and listen to the podcast.
I encourage you go listen to it. Trump was not
his best version, and that, to me is the frustrating part,
because I think there were It's like when you watch
go back and watch film of a game and you're like,
it's one thing. If he had been going up against
the greatest debater of all time, you'd be like, man,
that person's really good. There were lots of layups to
(28:31):
be made, there were lots of easy points to be scored,
and I think Trump missed on it. But the rig
job that he walked into is unprecedented in its nature.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
I truly never think we've seen anything like this.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
I think, in all things self honesty is very important,
and when you're assessing whether it's a debate performance or
a politician in general or a whole political platform. If
you have never once at this point, I mean, Trump
has been on the scene now for eight years, right
as the rest one on nine, since he came down
the staircase to run in twenty sixteen. If you've never
(29:05):
once found yourself saying I disagree with or I have
a problem with what Trump said.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
You need to get out a little more. You need
to think.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
You know, it's you can't always agree. I don't always
agree with my family members, you know what I mean.
I don't always agree with don't tell anyone, Clay, I
don't always agree with my wife. You know, you don't
always agree with anyone, and you don't always think what
they do is perfect all the time. And if you
find yourself in that situation, you're losing objectivity such that
(29:35):
it does you and that person a disservice. So people
can say that they thought Trump agreed, that's not That's fine.
But I'm just saying, if you've only ever thought to yourself,
I hate when when Trump is criticized, I've never criticized him,
or I've never agreed with the criticism of him. That's
that's not where that's not where we want to be.
In terms of the honesty meter, I.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Would agree you should never one hundred percent agree with anybody,
not even your sl You should be willing to challenge
your own thoughts. I also think this is important. If
you find yourself listening to media people who only say
that somebody is amazing or awesome or the best version
of themselves, you are, I think, falling victim to the
(30:19):
same lies that Karine Jean Pierre was saying at the podium,
and frankly that Kamala argued for years about Biden. It
was self evident for anybody with a brain that Biden
wasn't able to do the job.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
Now, you often bring the sort of the sports commentary
flavor into things. I don't think anybody would trust a
coach who had been serving for a decade of a
professional team who after every single game win or lose,
was like we were awesome. I wouldn't change a thing.
That's not why and why is that bad? It's bad
because it's not honest. It's not honest, it's not helpful,
(30:51):
it's not helpful, it's not going to help you win.
So again, I still think Trump is ahead. I still
think Trump is going to win but as part of
the process of having that conversation. Again, it's not just
like you and me are sitting on a stoop somewhere
saying it. You, me and a few million friends, including
people who work for Trump. I think that that having
some degree of reflection on what could have gone a
(31:14):
little better last night is actually a service to the
Trump campaign.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
That's how I view it.
Speaker 5 (31:20):
Now.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
People can disagree with that, that's fine.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
I also think this is important too. You can't surround
yourself in any facet of life with people who only
say you're awesome. And you know this, buck, This happens
in media all the time.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
All the time.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
People cloister themselves. They surround themselves by people who say,
you're amazing, you did everything perfectly. It happens probably in
many of your businesses where the boss has a lot
of yes men or women who just walk around and
it doesn't matter what the data says, it doesn't matter
what the performance was, and that works, and that works,
(31:57):
and then it's the Emperor with no clothes send At
some point it blows up. And I think this is
where Trump needs to have people with him who say, hey,
you could have been better than you were.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Last night, and.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
In order to win the election, you're gonna have to
be better than this going forward. Now, everybody is not
their best. Look Buck, You and I talked for three
hours every day. Sometimes we finish the show and it
wasn't the best show we ever did. I wish every
day was perfect. We screw things up. The audio doesn't
get played, we read the wrong read the wrong ad,
we get a fact wrong, or we missstate. Certainly I
(32:35):
get grammar wrong all the time. I sound like Tim
Walls here. We're imperfect. But the goal is to get
better and better. And I don't think that Trump improved
from June. You know, we all need energy to thrive
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Speaker 1 (33:12):
Want to be a guy who doesn't think that Kamla
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(33:36):
You can cancel at any time, of course, but not
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number is fifty Chalk three thousand. Say Clay and Buck
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Speaker 3 (33:50):
Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton telling it like it is.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts. Closing up shop Wednesday at Ish Clay
and Buck. A little bit of breaking news, Buck, Springfield, Ohio.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is employing state troop deploying state
troopers and sending two and a half million dollars into
Springfield to deal with a surge of Haitian migrants.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Quote.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
The federal government has not demonstrated they have any kind
of plan to deal with the issue that is going
on right now in Springfield, Ohio. Of course, David Muir
told you all that there's no issue at all in
UH in Springfield, Ohio. Unfortunately, there are a lot of
issues there. Let's see if we get a couple of
calls in UH to to close up the shop today.
(34:39):
Encourage you to go subscribe to the podcast Gary in Naples, Florida,
Great place which got forced Gary.
Speaker 6 (34:47):
Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen. First, let me apologize to your
call screener. I know he's got a six skin, but
I got a little jesty.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
I'm thinking the reason, producer Greg is like the terminator
of call screeners.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Did you say to the call What did you say
to the call screener that you feel compelled to apologize
to start off your call?
Speaker 6 (35:07):
Well, we had a longer debate than I think I'm
going to have on your show.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
Anyway.
Speaker 6 (35:12):
I was trying to be clear, and apparently I wasn't clear,
and I got a little testy and loud and obnoxiously.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Well be clear now, because there's millions listening. Go ahead, right.
Speaker 6 (35:22):
So, I think after eight and a half years of
the treatment that Trump has been receiving. I think with
the level of disrespect Famala was showing him as well
as the ABC moderators that I think he finally blew
his top. And there was a segment in there where
he was talking. It wasn't the crowd size, it wasn't
(35:42):
any of that superfluous stuff. It's when she referred to
him as a disgrace, that former military members called him supposedly,
that some of his staff members called him supposedly, which
is why they were fired. And it wasn't because they
called him a disgrace. Then she brought up the Central
Park five, which is a long time ago, and the
(36:05):
guys were found guilty. They were recently released. You know
he's going to be using lawfair. I beg your pardon.
What's happened the last four year?
Speaker 5 (36:15):
Right?
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Well, thank you, thank you for calling in, and thank
you for calling in from Naples, which gives me an
opportunity to say, Clay, because we've talked about some of
the ratings numbers radio stations South Florida, we are suddenly
suddenly blowing it out in South Florida.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
You moved to Miami and suddenly our ratings have tripled
in the city of Miami over the last year as well,
as numbers have always been big and Fort Myers and Naples,
so I guess that's the Buck Sexton effect.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Miami loves you.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
We have so many freedom lovers here in the Miami
Dade County and area. It's fantastic. So we'll talk to
you more. A Moore, everybody, thank you.
Third hour play and Buck gets going right now. Our
friend Ryan Gurdusky joins us. He is the author of
the National's populist newsletter on Substack, also founded of the
seventeen seventy six Project Pack.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Ryan, good to have you as always, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Let's take a look first at the numbers as you
see them today, the day after the debate. What are
the debate numbers and what are the poll numbers looking
like as much as we can dive into that data.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
So in the debate numbers, we'll start with that. The
CNN instapole results had Kamala winning the debate with sixty
three percent and Trump having thirty seven percent. Thirty seven
percent of viewers said Trump won sixty three percent. Can
I say, Kamala one? This is fairly in line with
almost every single debate Trump has ever had CNN instapoles.
(00:53):
That's chem I mean, which are not you know signs?
Because it's right afterwards only among viewers, Trump will get
twenty seven percent versus Hillary's sixty two percent in twenty sixteen,
and in twenty twenty the first debate with Biden, he
got twenty eight percent to Biden's sixty percent. Trump is
not a very good debater, never really has been. With
(01:15):
the sole exception of the last debate with Joe Biden,
Trump has never won a single debate in a CNN instapole.
Going into how he's performing election wise, according to all
the major poll aggregate websites, in the national polls, Trump
is either behind from one point to three points. And
(01:37):
that's according to poll agrogi gets including ad Silver, including
five thirty eight, the Economist Race to the White House
Vodor hub Jaje k forecast. They all have Kamala with
a lead, but it's a slight lead. It's a lead
between one and three points. As I said, if there
is a pera in Comma's favor, the same way there
(01:58):
was a polling error in Joe Biden's favor in twenty
twenty and in Hillary's favor in twenty sixteen, although hillaries
was in the margin of error that would put Kamala
at about a point ahead of Trump nationally, which is
what you're looking at. The last three major polls that
came out all within the span of last seventy two
(02:21):
hours or last week. Rather the New York Times Sianna Pole,
which had Trump up one point, the Marquete pole which
had horsed up by one point. I was sorry, that
was the Maris pole that had a comma up one point.
The and then the Pew Research poll which had at
a dead tie are all telling about the same story,
which is a close national race.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Ryan, Isn't this race just gonna come down to who
wins Pennsylvania? If you had to say, I want to
know one state and I told you the exact results
for Pennsylvania, couldn't you tell almost entirely based on how
Pennsylvania votes, what's going to happen in the national race.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
So I wrote this in the National Populis Substack, my
Nationalpis newsletter on substack. There are three states that will
decide this election. Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Those are
the three. If I guarantee whatever happens in those three states,
there is no way for the winner of those three
states to lose nationally. So, yeah, Pennsylvania is one of
(03:21):
the three, and it is the large electoral getter of
the three, most amount of Electoral College votes of the three.
But those are the three that decide. They're all on
these coasts.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And you would sorry, sorry to cut you off. But
Trump would be in the lead in Georgia and North
Carolina based on general consensus, gambling markets, all those things,
and Pennsylvania basically is a straight toss up.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
In most of the ones that factor in things like
polling errors. North Carolina and Georgia are within Trump or
Trump a very small lead, and have Harris has a
very small lead in Pennsylvania. They average out that North
Carolina and Georgia have about a lead of about half
a point for Trump and lead for Harris by one
(04:07):
point in Pennsylvania. But I will mind, I will sit
there and say North Carolina and Pennsylvania polsters usually oversample
Democrats in these polls. Georgia they usually over sample Republicans. Georgia,
like many other states, including Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, do not
register voters by party. They just register to vote and
(04:29):
they vote in the primaries in which they want to vote.
In Pennsylvania and North Carolina registered voters by party. It's
a lot easier than sit there and identify voters based
upon you know, if they're actually a Democrat or actually
a Republican in those states, but Georgia, typically the polls
usually overly favor Republicans, and in North Carolina and Pennsylvania
(04:49):
they overly favor Democrats.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
So Ryan, as far as you can tell and as
far as the numbers are are speaking to this, are
we essentially guaranteed a very tight election in terms of
just the vote totals in the states that matter. When
all said and DONO mean, is there any way that
you could see this turning into some kind of a route?
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I mean, could there? Yeah? Nate Silver has this as
a route. They have Trump winning every single swing state.
Most other predictors say it will split. The Sun Belt
will go for Trump, the Ross Belt will go for Kamala.
I do not believe that, though. I think that there
is a massive polling era, as I've written about this
over and over again, where they are overpolling old liberal
voters who have a heavy response bias. Their answering polls
(05:38):
are too high of a number. In the Survey USA
and Quinnepiac pull, I think Survey USA had Trump up
by five among North Carolina seniors and Quiney Piac had
I think Kama up eight or nine among North Carolina seniors.
That's a demographic that is heavily Republican. Trump won it
by twenty points last time, and I think by about
nineteen points the time before. A heavy, heavy, heavy Republican demographic.
(06:02):
There's no way on this planet that it's going to
even resemble close to that polls. And why I say
seniors over like African Americans or Hispanics, which are a
very small sample size in the sub sect. Seniors are
about third thirty percent of twenty five percent, so it's
a very large sample size. It is a very small
margin of error. So when you're talking about a twenty
(06:24):
five thirty point twenty point difference between elections and polls
with subsets of cross tabs, you're looking at a real
response bias. And this was true of the response bias
in twenty twenty and in twenty sixteen. The illusion of
the silent Trump voter often comes from the fact that seniors,
old liberal seniors are oversampled in these polls. They want
(06:48):
pollsters to know their opinion. Old liberals love to tell
you their opinions. At this point, they're calling polsters and like, hey,
do you want to hear my opinion on this election?
That is what we're seeing over and over and over again.
I think that's where you're going to sit there and
see Trump gain a point. Nationally is in the senior vote,
and that's where states like Pennsylvania North Carolina could very
(07:08):
well easily decided, and none of these holes have the debate.
You know in if factored in, Kamala very well likely
may see a bump because of Trump's very poor performance
in the debate last night, But that will who knows
how long that will last. For it they typically do
not last all the way to election day. So a
(07:30):
lot of people have lost their first debates went on
to win their election. Barack Obama, Donald Trump, George W.
Bush lost his first debate pretty badly, and they all
won their election. So it doesn't mean, you know, it's
definite for that it will definitely decide the election.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
The answer may be yes, But our buck and eye
crazy for looking in the Midwest and saying just on
our belief I think he and I are aligned on this.
Old white people in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in particular
are not going to support Kamala as much as they
(08:08):
supported Biden the Scranton Joe appeal. While we may think
it was bs based on the way he governed, did
persuade some old white moderate voters in those big ten states.
That's how he won in twenty twenty. There's no again,
I think there's no way that Kamala gets that same
level of support. So this part of this is is
(08:31):
there a black or Hispanic vote that she's gaining or
could that be dispositive for you in the Midwest.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
So there's two groups that will change it for Kamala.
One is gen Z because there are millions of new
voters that were not registered to vote four years ago
that will be tilting heavily towards Kamala. That was a
huge fact in the twenty twenty two election, and abortion
is a major issue for them. The second is that
there have been three point three million new naturalized citizens
(09:02):
legal immigrants who vote two and a half or three
to one Democrat since the twenty twenty election. President Biden
ramped up the speed in which people became citizens for
a reason they vote heavily Democrat. During the last year
of the last few years of Obama's presidency, where he
(09:22):
was pushing for refugee resettlement, like the same way that
Biden where he's pushing a refugee resettlement is oftentimes in
swing states. So that's why you see huge clusters of
migrant voters going to swing state places where you're like,
this isn't weird. It's not like there's a huge Haitian
population in Springfield, Ohio. Now they're being purposely put into
(09:43):
swing states, and three point three million new people who
could vote, who will overwhelmingly be voting Democrat, as well
as the millions of new Gen Z voters will definitely
play a huge factor in it. The thing that they
need to sit there and to change that is they
need to increase voter turn out among non college educated whites.
Non college educated whites have the and I've said this
(10:05):
on your show before, have the worst voter participation among
any demographic except for recent immigrants. They do not vote
in high numbers. If they voted as often as whites
with a college degree, did it, I mean Oregon would
be a red state. It wouldn't even be a close election.
Virginia would be a red state. It's just a matter
(10:25):
of turnout. Trump is going to improve performance among Hispanics
and among Asians and among blacks, but this election is
boiled down to the white vote. Do whites without a
college degree turn up do they show up for Trump
and do they feel like Kamla does not have their
best interests?
Speaker 1 (10:42):
What do you think is the most important focus the
Trump campaign can have between now an election day. So
that we don't have a super sad day coming up
in November, we have to have Ryan On have a
big cry session.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
You know.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
I think that Kamala Harris, at the age of sixty,
had a major life event where she changed all of
her beliefs overnight. Trump could have cornered her on all
those things. And I'm not talking about just fracking, which
was the issue they brought up over and over again.
She was radical on things like reparations, which is an
enormously unpopular idea. Kamala Harris supported a multi trillion dollar
(11:21):
reparation plan for the descendants of slaves. This is something
that's overwhelming and not only opposed by white voters, but
it's opposed by Asians and Hispanic voters who feel like
they were never part of the Civil War or anything
that followed it. I would bring up that, I would
bring up the fact that she was very radical left
on a number of issues, from taxes to the Green
(11:42):
New Deal to gun confiscation. She had a major life
change in one thousand days where she changed all of
her fundamental beliefs. She went from being a Bernie Sanders
Democrat to being you know, a pro choice George W.
Bush rep Republican in one thousand days, when she is
(12:02):
close to being a senior citizen. Life transformations don't usually
happen that free, at at that age, that quickly, but
for some reason, she did. And I think cornering her
on who she actually is, who is the real Kamala Harris,
is the essential thing because the beliefs that she had
in twenty nineteen were so unpopular, not even Democrats would
vote for her. And that's what you need to because
(12:24):
that's and that's why she's running basically as a pro
choice Republican nowadays. I mean she's about military, about cutting spending,
about you know, increasing child child tax credit.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
It's all about building a wall. She wants to build
a wall, right, she.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Wants to build the wall. I mean, this is the
new Kamala Harris, a one thousand day life transformation. It's
never been seen before. And I think exposing that is
what she needed to sit.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
There and say, you mentioned young voters. Taylor Swift endorses
right after the debate. It's clearly staged. But what is
the impact of someone like Taylor Swift? Do you buy
into celebrity endorsements moving anything?
Speaker 3 (13:09):
I mean, back when celebrity was a real thing, like
when Oprah endorsed Obama, it was a real thing, but
there was media was much more organized around very few people,
what real celebrities were. Taylorswood is a real celebrity. I
don't know how. I don't I don't know what appeal
Taylor has with especially young people, the way that people,
(13:33):
maybe people are older think to this. Taylor SWI was
almost middle aged. I mean, she's not twenty one anymore.
She's not Charlie XCX or or people that younger people
are always listening to.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
She TikTok knowledge no.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
But she's been there for two she's been around for
two decades. She's not a young person. She's young, relatively young,
but she's not young young. She's not a twenty one
year old who excites people. And the media is not
where everyone watched the same nine to ten things and
that was how we consume media. I don't know how
much how much appeal it has. I looked at people
(14:09):
that I knew on Instagram, maybe I didn't know their
opinions and when they liked who liked it? Everyone I know.
Who I saw who liked it, I knew was a
liberal who was voting for her. So I don't know
if that really, you know, will change anyone's vote. Maybe
it will motivate some people to go out and get
out a vote. She's clearly not campaigning for her as
of anything I've ever seen yet. And it didn't help
celebrities in twenty sixteen when they were all saying they
(14:32):
are campaigning heavily for Hillary Clinton. And you know, it's
not like celebrities were you, like, supported George W.
Speaker 6 (14:40):
Bush.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
We've never really seen uh, celebrities in the modern age
support Republican So I.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Remember that.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Celebrity Remember the celebrity montage they did for Hillary with
the fight song, and they had like, yeah, the level
of cringe.
Speaker 3 (14:57):
So I watched that like once a month.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Yeah, yeah, it's still very good. Brian ger Dusky, everybody,
if you want to know what's going on, follow him.
Go to the National Populace newsletter on substack.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Ryan. Always great to have you.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
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Speaker 2 (16:33):
On the Sunday Hang Podcast with Clay and Buck.
Speaker 4 (16:37):
Find it in their podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay
Travis Bought Sexton Show. We will discuss this a bit
more when we come back, but I want to hit
you with this data. Fifty one point two million people
watched Biden Trump. That was down about thirty percent from
the audience for the first debate in twenty only. Fifty
(17:02):
seven point seven million debate viewers right now appear to
have watched last night between Trump and Kamala. That's also
down a massive amount over twenty twenty. To me, Buck,
this data reflects that a lot of people have already
made up their mind and maybe tuning out many of
(17:24):
the details associated with the debates. Because those are relatively
small numbers relative to historic standards. Maybe that suggests also
the overall number of voters is going to be down.
We'll talk about that a bit more and whether there's
going to be more debates when we come back here
on the flip side in a moment. But in the meantime,
(17:44):
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Speaker 2 (18:51):
It happens.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Now, where is it all heading? My friends VR in
almost mid September. Here we got an election coming up
less than two months away. I can't believe how this
is all coming together. It feels like with each passing day,
the days are getting shorter. On this well, I guess
technically they are getting shorter, right because of the light
(19:14):
you know, daylight savings. But you know what I mean, yes,
not even a metaphor not even a metaphor just a
real thing. The days are getting shorter in every sense,
and I think that we're getting closer and closer to
what will certainly be a tense election day. I still
feel good about things. I'm not too concerned. Trump here,
this has cut twenty three. He says that they we
(19:35):
didn't really get into this play. We'll get in a
little more. That they want a second debate because they lost.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Play twenty three. You commit to a second debate with
Kamala Harris.
Speaker 5 (19:45):
Believe I can debate because she lost tonight ver eventley,
so they won. They immediately called for second debate because
they lost.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
So we'll you don't think.
Speaker 5 (19:54):
About that, but she immediately called for a second look.
We're looking at Paul's We're looking at it both the
worst ball that we've had with seventy one that I
see seventy to like twenty four, twenty five.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
So I see this to two ways.
Speaker 1 (20:12):
Right now, it hasn't been set yet, right they haven't
officially officially, it sounds like the campaigns are leaning toward
a second debate. We also, I should just note as
an aside here, we have the vice presidential debate coming
up on October one between JD Vance and Tim Walls.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
I think that he's going to be very good. JD.
Speaker 1 (20:37):
Van's going to be very good in the debate. I
don't think anybody cares about that vice president debate. I really,
I just don't think that it's just a it's a
side show and I don't even know why they're having it.
I mean, for JD it's good. I guess that people
get to look at him for the future. But you know,
it's it's not gonna matter. I mean, I'll watch it
because this is our job, but you know, I wouldn't
(20:59):
recommend any if you watch it, Like we'll tell you
what happens. I promise they'll waste your time. But the
second presidential debate would be a bigger deal. And you
know Trump's analysis here. He's Trump, so he sees things
a certain way that tends to be favorable to all
things Trump. Uh, there's two ways that I could see
this play. On the one hand, wanting another debate is
(21:21):
an admission that the Kamala campaign is still behind. But
there's also the other hand, Kamala's campaign may see this
as a way to try to make up some more
of those points because they think they did some of
that last night.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
What do you think.
Speaker 4 (21:40):
I I think who moderates This is maybe the determinive
factor of whether I would do another debate if I
were Trump. I don't think he benefits. He's already done CNN,
He's now done ABC, two different networks that clearly hate him.
The vice presidential debate is on NBC. I don't think
(22:01):
he benefits from going into the lions Den again. If
I were Trump and I were advising him, I would
say I did CNN, I did ABC. Those are left
leaning media outlets. I will do Fox News, as he
has proposed before. I will do Fox News on October eleventh,
(22:22):
if you show and I would take the I would
take it now, meaning I would put that out there
in the public today, because then it's like, hey, here,
I agreed to your prescriptions. I've agreed to this. I'll
do Fox News on October tenth or whatever date it is,
and I'm going to show up and do a town hall.
(22:42):
If you don't show up, I'm showing up either way.
And then it puts the onus on Kamalo. Will she
go on Fox News? I think the answer is no,
and then you get into wrangling over debate terms and
you can see how the polling looks and make a
decision then on whether or not you want to do it.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
That's how I would play it.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
And this is gonna sound a little whiny, but I'm
just gonna say it because I think it needs to
be said. You know what's unfair about all this too.
If Kamala went on Fox News, yes, it would be
a fair debate. Our team just won't do that. They
would There will not be a fire everyone, There will
not be a Fox News ambush.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
The anchors, if they would choose, would run it fair.
They'd run it straight.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
And we all know this and this is just one
of these they're willing to, you know, hit you in
the ribs when the ref isn't looking and our team isn't.
Speaker 2 (23:32):
I don't know what else to say, but that's true,
the truth.
Speaker 4 (23:35):
Yeah, Martha McCollum and Brett Bayer are who Trump suggested.
I can guarantee you that they would be straight down
the middle and they would be completely fair.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
In fact, the only the complaints about them because of
the lopside in an insane way that the Democrats view
this stuff. The complaints about them would be why didn't
they fact check fact check Trump's complaints that fashion and
Jake Tapper got from the left right. I mean you
so running, Just to be clear, running a straight and
(24:06):
fair debate is always unacceptable to Democrats, especially when it
comes to Trump. If you just ask questions and let
the people talk who are the candidates? That is unacceptable
to Democrats. They will complain about that.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
I think that's important because it also ties in with
larger societal free speech codes. They're angry that Elon Musk
on Twitter slash x is just allowing people to say
what they think. They don't want a free and open
forum where candidates can make arguments, and the American public
(24:43):
can decide which arguments they find more compelling. They demand
a referee that is going to put his or her
hands on the scales in their favor. We're not even
arguing for that. We're just saying, hey, let's have an
open forum. You and I came on and said after
the CNN debate, hey, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash pretty
much stayed out of the fray. They let Joe Biden
(25:06):
and Donald Trump go after each other, and the goal
is to give people more information. If the same thing
is true of this debate, then we would have come
on and we would have said, hey, you know, it
was a fair fight. They stayed out of the way. Instead,
Lindsay Davis and David Muir decided to make themselves really
strong parts of the debate. Here's the thing that's really
(25:27):
a kick in the teeth to me, Buck. In so doing,
they made themselves millions of dollars out to say their
contract extension ever never get fired.
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Their contract extensions were a done deal. After last night's debate.
Muhr is probably making twenty million a year, twenty five
million a year, something like that.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (25:50):
What the I don't even know the other lady's name,
but ill Lindsay Davis. I have no idea what she
makes and they're never getting fired. They have lifetime tenure
at ABC News.
Speaker 6 (25:57):
Now.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
Yeah, so this is always remember this for Democrats. They
take care of their team. They take care of their side,
and that is why they get the outcomes that they do.
So and on our side, sometimes people do the good deed,
they show bravery and courage and character, and everyone's like, well,
I don't know, I guess their career is ruined. Like
maybe they'll open up, you know, a pawn shop somewhere
(26:19):
so they'll figure it out. You know, we don't take
care of our team the same way. It's one of
our I know, it sounds like a little thing. It's
actually one of the biggest failings we have because in
this in this environment where Democrats run the politics of
personal destruction using the Internet and everything else in a
way that you know, is way beyond what they could
do in the past, being able to ruin someone's career,
in their livelihood because they're a political threat to you
(26:41):
very powerful.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
Oh look at what they did to Trump. I mean
when Democrat presidents move out of office, they get lifetime sinecures. Heck,
even Joe Biden was making millions of dollars and he
was only a VP. Trump is president, leaves office. They
won't even play pro golf tournaments at his horses. The
PGA Tour pulls pulls out on the PGA Championship and
(27:04):
they try to put him in prison for the rest
of his life. I mean, it's not even just you
don't get a golden parachute. It's that they try to
put you in a jail cell. It is true. And
and these guys, I mean, that's why it's so disgusting
to me. David Muir and Lindsay Davis, they now are
taken care of it. And we didn't even hardly talked
about this, But the president of ABC News is a
(27:27):
thirty year friend of Kamala Harris, yep, thirty years.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
They have been best.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
To introduced Kamala to the first husband guy or whatever.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
The second d a girl I think her name is
Dana Walden. You guys in the studio Kip, Sorry, didn't
she introduced to the Kamala?
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Yeah? Yeah, I think that's right. And their they're bosom buddies.
Speaker 4 (27:49):
From La who hang out together all the time, have
been friends for thirty years, and she runs the network
that gets the debate and you don't think that Dayvid
Muir and Lindsey Davis know that their boss is best
friends with one of the two people that they're doing
the debate of. I mean again, the rig job was
(28:09):
in effect, and I get the if you've listened to
the show, you go back and listen to the podcast.
I encourage you go listen to it. Trump was not
his best version, and that, to me is the frustrating part,
because I think there were It's like when you watch
go back and watch film of a game and you're like,
it's one thing. If he had been going up against
the greatest debater of all time, you'd be like, man,
that person's really good. There were lots of layups to
(28:31):
be made, there were lots of easy points to be scored,
and I think Trump missed on it. But the rig
job that he walked into is unprecedented in its nature.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
I truly never think we've seen anything like this.
Speaker 1 (28:44):
I think, in all things self honesty is very important,
and when you're assessing whether it's a debate performance or
a politician in general or a whole political platform. If
you have never once at this point, I mean, Trump
has been on the scene now for eight years, right
as the rest one on nine, since he came down
the staircase to run in twenty sixteen. If you've never
(29:05):
once found yourself saying I disagree with or I have
a problem with what Trump said.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
You need to get out a little more. You need
to think.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
You know, it's you can't always agree. I don't always
agree with my family members, you know what I mean.
I don't always agree with don't tell anyone, Clay, I
don't always agree with my wife. You know, you don't
always agree with anyone, and you don't always think what
they do is perfect all the time. And if you
find yourself in that situation, you're losing objectivity such that
(29:35):
it does you and that person a disservice. So people
can say that they thought Trump agreed, that's not That's fine.
But I'm just saying, if you've only ever thought to yourself,
I hate when when Trump is criticized, I've never criticized him,
or I've never agreed with the criticism of him. That's
that's not where that's not where we want to be.
In terms of the honesty meter, I.
Speaker 4 (29:56):
Would agree you should never one hundred percent agree with anybody,
not even your sl You should be willing to challenge
your own thoughts. I also think this is important. If
you find yourself listening to media people who only say
that somebody is amazing or awesome or the best version
of themselves, you are, I think, falling victim to the
(30:19):
same lies that Karine Jean Pierre was saying at the podium,
and frankly that Kamala argued for years about Biden. It
was self evident for anybody with a brain that Biden
wasn't able to do the job.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
Now, you often bring the sort of the sports commentary
flavor into things. I don't think anybody would trust a
coach who had been serving for a decade of a
professional team who after every single game win or lose,
was like we were awesome. I wouldn't change a thing.
That's not why and why is that bad? It's bad
because it's not honest. It's not honest, it's not helpful,
(30:51):
it's not helpful, it's not going to help you win.
So again, I still think Trump is ahead. I still
think Trump is going to win but as part of
the process of having that conversation. Again, it's not just
like you and me are sitting on a stoop somewhere
saying it. You, me and a few million friends, including
people who work for Trump. I think that that having
some degree of reflection on what could have gone a
(31:14):
little better last night is actually a service to the
Trump campaign.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
That's how I view it.
Speaker 5 (31:20):
Now.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
People can disagree with that, that's fine.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
I also think this is important too. You can't surround
yourself in any facet of life with people who only
say you're awesome. And you know this, buck, This happens
in media all the time.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
All the time.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
People cloister themselves. They surround themselves by people who say,
you're amazing, you did everything perfectly. It happens probably in
many of your businesses where the boss has a lot
of yes men or women who just walk around and
it doesn't matter what the data says, it doesn't matter
what the performance was, and that works, and that works,
(31:57):
and then it's the Emperor with no clothes send At
some point it blows up. And I think this is
where Trump needs to have people with him who say, hey,
you could have been better than you were.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Last night, and.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
In order to win the election, you're gonna have to
be better than this going forward. Now, everybody is not
their best. Look Buck, You and I talked for three
hours every day. Sometimes we finish the show and it
wasn't the best show we ever did. I wish every
day was perfect. We screw things up. The audio doesn't
get played, we read the wrong read the wrong ad,
we get a fact wrong, or we missstate. Certainly I
(32:35):
get grammar wrong all the time. I sound like Tim
Walls here. We're imperfect. But the goal is to get
better and better. And I don't think that Trump improved
from June. You know, we all need energy to thrive
during the day. It's one thing to get a good
night's rest and eat the right foods, but the right
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(32:56):
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Speaker 1 (33:12):
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(33:36):
You can cancel at any time, of course, but not
gonna want to. You can also call or text. The
number is fifty Chalk three thousand. Say Clay and Buck
sent me. That's fifty chalk three thousand.
Speaker 3 (33:50):
Clay, Travis and Buck Sexton telling it like it is.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
Find them on the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you
get your podcasts. Closing up shop Wednesday at Ish Clay
and Buck. A little bit of breaking news, Buck, Springfield, Ohio.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is employing state troop deploying state
troopers and sending two and a half million dollars into
Springfield to deal with a surge of Haitian migrants.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Quote.
Speaker 4 (34:17):
The federal government has not demonstrated they have any kind
of plan to deal with the issue that is going
on right now in Springfield, Ohio. Of course, David Muir
told you all that there's no issue at all in
UH in Springfield, Ohio. Unfortunately, there are a lot of
issues there. Let's see if we get a couple of
calls in UH to to close up the shop today.
(34:39):
Encourage you to go subscribe to the podcast Gary in Naples, Florida,
Great place which got forced Gary.
Speaker 6 (34:47):
Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen. First, let me apologize to your
call screener. I know he's got a six skin, but
I got a little jesty.
Speaker 1 (34:55):
I'm thinking the reason, producer Greg is like the terminator
of call screeners.
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Did you say to the call What did you say
to the call screener that you feel compelled to apologize
to start off your call?
Speaker 6 (35:07):
Well, we had a longer debate than I think I'm
going to have on your show.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
Anyway.
Speaker 6 (35:12):
I was trying to be clear, and apparently I wasn't clear,
and I got a little testy and loud and obnoxiously.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
Well be clear now, because there's millions listening. Go ahead, right.
Speaker 6 (35:22):
So, I think after eight and a half years of
the treatment that Trump has been receiving. I think with
the level of disrespect Famala was showing him as well
as the ABC moderators that I think he finally blew
his top. And there was a segment in there where
he was talking. It wasn't the crowd size, it wasn't
(35:42):
any of that superfluous stuff. It's when she referred to
him as a disgrace, that former military members called him supposedly,
that some of his staff members called him supposedly, which
is why they were fired. And it wasn't because they
called him a disgrace. Then she brought up the Central
Park five, which is a long time ago, and the
(36:05):
guys were found guilty. They were recently released. You know
he's going to be using lawfair. I beg your pardon.
What's happened the last four year?
Speaker 5 (36:15):
Right?
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Well, thank you, thank you for calling in, and thank
you for calling in from Naples, which gives me an
opportunity to say, Clay, because we've talked about some of
the ratings numbers radio stations South Florida, we are suddenly
suddenly blowing it out in South Florida.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
You moved to Miami and suddenly our ratings have tripled
in the city of Miami over the last year as well,
as numbers have always been big and Fort Myers and Naples,
so I guess that's the Buck Sexton effect.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Miami loves you.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
We have so many freedom lovers here in the Miami
Dade County and area. It's fantastic. So we'll talk to
you more. A Moore, everybody, thank you.
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