January 6, 2025 • 15 mins
In the premiere episode of 'It's a Numbers Game,' Ryan Girdusky discusses the current political landscape in the U.S. as the new Congress convenes. He highlights the dynamics within the Republican Party, the challenges faced by Speaker Mike Johnson, and the resilience of the Democratic Party. This episode also touches on the implications of the 2024 elections for the 2025 legislative agenda, particularly in the Senate, and the importance of key districts in shaping future policies. It's A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network. Learn more are natpop.newsletter.com
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. Thank
you for being here for my premiere episode one of
I hope to be many many in the future. This
podcast is going to be dedicated to presenting listeners with
data and information rather than narratives. A lot of people
in the media care a lot about presenting narratives and
very little about giving just straight information and letting you decide.
(00:28):
I want you to decide by presenting you with the
data that will make you smarter, make you more interesting,
make you fun to listen to at dinner. And every
week's me a new episode, new guests on different topics,
mostly politics, but also the economy, culture, entertainment, sports.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
And if I need a guest to sit there and
be an expert in something, I will bring them to
you for that episode. Every episode will also have a
link of it to my National Populist newsletter on substack.
If you go to Natpopnewsletter dot com you can sign
up up for a thirty day free trial to read
and visually see what I'm going to tell you and
(01:06):
my first episode, I want to talk about the new year,
the new Congress, and the sort of new president. I
mean he's been there before, but he's essentially new president.
President Trump is going to come into the presidency with
a Republican Congress, Republican Senate. Fifty three members of the
Senate are Republicans, forty five are Democrats, two are independents,
and four hundred and thirty five members of Congress will
(01:28):
be I've just been elected. Two hundred and twenty were
elected as Republicans, two hundred and fifteen were elected as Democrats.
But the two big numbers from that you should draw
are the numbers three and the numbers sixteen. Three is
the majority in the House of Representatives. That is all
the Republicans have. And it's even more complicated for Speaker
(01:50):
Mike Johnson, who's trying to be re elected as Speaker.
The three person majority is smaller because one macates has.
Former Congressman that case now has retired after winning re election,
and there'll be a special election for his seat in
Florida's first district. At least Staphonic in Upstate New York
from Upstate New York is preparing to retire and resign
(02:13):
to go work for the Trump administration as the United
Nations Ambassador, and Mike Waltz from Florida is also preparing
to resign to go work for the Trump administration. That
gives Speaker Johnson very very little wiggle room. Now, I
imagine that Congresswomen's Saphonic and Congressman Walts will sign, will
swear in, they'll vote for Speaker Johnson, and then when
(02:34):
the Trump administration comes in and formally nominates them, then
they'll leave and go, and then the seats will be vacant.
All three seats are overwhelmingly Republican, likely to be replaced
by a Republican, but that takes time. Special elections take time,
and that means there'll be a window where Speaker Johnson
is very little wiggle room. And in a very diverse
(02:54):
Congress with a lot of different opinions within the Republican Party,
that is, people who are fiscal hawks who want to
fight over budget spending, you'll have more liberal Republicans, You'll
have more conservative Republicans, You'll have more populous Republicans. It's
hard to rope all those people together and everyone hold
hands in one giant family, especially when you've seen in
(03:15):
fighting before Congress already began. Likewise, Democrats have their own
issues where you have more AOC progressive wing versus on
Nancy Pelosi establish a wing and a handful of conservative
Democrats or more moderate Democrats like Josh Gothheimer, for example,
out of New Jersey. That is a different dichotomy altogether.
(03:36):
But Democrats are a much better job at holding their
part together than the Republicans do for an assortment of
reasons that I won't even go into today, but that's
definitely part of it. Now within the whole Congress, the
four hundred and thirty five. The other number I told
you to think about is the number sixteen. The number
sixteen represents the thirteen Democrats who won elect their election
(03:58):
or re election in seats that Trump won, and the
three Republicans who won their reelection in all three cases
in districts that Kamala Harris won. Now, the three Republicans
are Don Bacon from Nebraska's second Mike Lawler from New
York seventeen, and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania's first district. Don
(04:18):
Bacon is in a very Democratic seat. He will be
a much more moderate member of the party because he
asked to sit there and hold on. He did very
very well that he won by one point eight percent,
despite Trump losing his district by over four percent. Mike
Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick out of New York and Pennsylvania, respectively,
they won by a much larger margin because the margin
(04:39):
that Trump lost by was under a point in both seats.
So who are the thirteen Democrats?
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Though?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
The thirteen Democrats who woke up the day after election
day realizing that they were representing Republican districts, some of
whom were very surprised because those districts long were Democratic
strongholds and because the party has realigned with a lot
more working class people, some black voters, some Hispanic voters,
some Asian voters moving to the right. There all of
(05:06):
a sudden in a district that Trump won. There's two
out of California, Josh Harder and Adam Gray. That's the
Central Valley, very Latino, very Hispanic, moved very far to
the right. There's Jared Golden, a main main second congressional
It's northern Maine. He's always been a pretty conservative Democrat.
He votes for most of the Republican stuff on a
(05:26):
lot of bills. He wrote an article for I think
it was the Bangalor of Daily saying that he was
going to vote for Donald Trump. He's a pretty conservative member.
He barely won in a very very Republican seat. Then
there's the newly Then there's Dan Kilde from Michigan's eighth district,
which is around the city of Flint area. You have
Susie Lee in Nevada's third, which is south of Las Vegas.
(05:48):
Nellie Poe. He's brand new, so I might be mispronouncing
his name. I'm sorry, I am if I am. It's
New Jersey's ninth that's in like the suburbs of New
York City. You have Gay Basquez in southern New Mexico.
His seat is Jerry Mander, so heavily I'm surprised that
Trump won it, but he did. You have Tom Swazi,
which is in Long Island. He's a Democrat. That and
(06:08):
a district that Trump won by five points. Don Davis
in North Carolina that is the more rural, black, white,
working class area. He barely won it in a district
that's becoming much much more Republican. You have a Marcy
Captor who's been there since nineteen eighty two. She represents
an area of Ohio near Michigan. In a very reddening
(06:30):
part of the country to in Texas in what I
call the Fahita Belt. This is the part of the
country that touches Mexico. You have Henry Quaar from Texas
twenty eight and you have been Sane Gunzales from Texas
thirty four. Those are districts that are running to the
right so fast it is to make a speedy Gonzales show.
But that's that's ye know gross. Anyway, you have Maria
(06:54):
Goose camp Perez over in Washington's third which is South
Washington near the Oregon border. That's a lot in and
I described who they were and where they lived, because
if you live in one of their district your voice
really matters. If they so choose to run for a
re election, they have incredibly tough fights. They're going to
have to run in districts they support Trump. They support
(07:16):
a lot of Trump's agenda. They probably support mass deportation
or tax cuts, or you know, a foreign policy that
looks more like Trump and less like Joe Biden. They
will be in a difficult position. So when then that's
a double sided sword. By the way, so when Speaker
Johnson says, hey, I need to pass continuing resolutions that
(07:38):
include things that a lot of conservative Republicans don't like. Well,
they have no problem because they're sit in there and
standing with the speaker, and it kind of isolates a
lot of conservative Republicans on spending bills, and at the
same exact time, they have the ability and the flexibility
to say, I'm voting for border le funding, I'm voting
for enforcement funding, i am voting for tax cuts or whatever.
(07:59):
The Republican is agenda is that it's considered centrist and
moderate without isolating Democrats. Because like Susan Collins, who is
perceied to be the only Republican to win in a
blue state, they're considered some of the only Democrats to
win in a red district. And that's really where that
number sixteen comes in and why it is so important
because in twenty twenty five, in the first few months
(08:20):
of the year, or maybe it's like the first year,
first year of the of his presidency, most of Trump's
legislative accomplishments are gonna, you know, come about and pass,
or they're going to whether or on the vine you're
listening to, it's a numbers game. With Ryan Gerdosky, we'll
be right back. There are a few other members that
(08:41):
are worth looking at. These are members who are in
more swing districts. They are in districts maybe Trump won
but he barely won. They're in districts that Harris won
but they're going far to the right, or districts that
are moving to the left of they're Republican, And I'm
thinking of if you're a Democrat, right, if you're a
Democrat all throughout states of like California. California has so
(09:04):
many Democrats besides just Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who
I've talked about, but George Whitehouse, he's in Califorlifornia twenty
seven district. He's in a district that he won by
a decent margin, but Trump's. That was a Biden double
digit district and now it is a barely barely barely
Democratic district. Left, you're talking about David min from Orange County,
(09:25):
and you're talking about Derek Tran also from Orange County.
That's an area that as Asians have sat there and
changed their political affiliation more to the right, your politics
have changed with them. There's also a district in South
Florida for Jared Moscowitz that you're thinking of and all
around the New York City suburban districts and New York
City districts. Like I said Tom Swazi before, but Laura Gillan,
(09:48):
Pat Ryan, Josh Riley, the House majority and the future
House majority will run through blue states. I don't think
people realize this. A lot of other pundits will say,
get out the Blue states, just lead, just leave. Why
you're still there, And I get it, I'm still in
a blue states. It's a lot. But if you want
a Republican majority, you need those California districts, you need
(10:09):
those New York districts, you need those Minnesota districts and
those New Jersey districts. And Jerry Manner has made him harder,
but it's not impossible. And those members are in tough seats.
There are also a few Republicans who are in districts
that are getting bluer and blue and bluer. You're talking
about Juan Siscamani over in Arizona. He's a very conservative member,
but he is in a district that is very tough.
(10:31):
Just sit there and win in. You're talking about Scott
Perry over in Pennsylvania, which is basically the Harrisburg District.
Now he is a Freedom Caucus member. He's a very
conservative member in a district that is getting very, very,
very tough for Republicans to compete in. So maybe he'll
moderate more. I don't know. He's pretty pretty hardcore on
his conservative beliefs, but who knows. Maybe I'll sit there
and say, this is the only way I could survive
(10:52):
in this very tough position and keep the Republicans from
having another landslide loss in twenty twenty six, or keep
the majority possibly or vote for Trump's agenda, which is
the point of this entire thing. How Republicans and Democrats
performed in twenty twenty four effects twenty twenty five. Incredibly,
(11:13):
I want to just take one second, although these were
not my two numbers, and just mention the Senate. The
Senate will be an interesting thing because you'll have senators
who are retiring, and you'll have senators who are up
for very tough primaries. Specifically eyeing two people in particular,
Mitch McConnell and Jim Reech. Jim Reach represents Idaho. He
will be eighty three years old in twenty twenty six
(11:35):
for reelection. Mitch McConnell will be eighty four obviously has
had a number of health episodes, and how they vote
in the upcoming Congress will be if they want, how
they want their legacy to be. Now, Mitch mcconnel's really
made his legacy, but if he spends his last two
years sitting there and giving the middle finger to Donald Trump,
that will be part of his legacy. If Jim Reech,
(11:59):
who most probably not know, decides to be the Mitt
Romney of twenty twenty five, that will be part of
his legacy. And it depends on how he wants to
really be covered for the rest of his life and
at the end of his life. There's also and Democrats
on him that many eyes for retirement, possibly Dick Durbin,
but who knows. I mean, we'll see. There are essentially
when it comes to Republican primaries, there's for incumbents who
(12:24):
are facing challenges who will have to show more allegiance
to Donald Trump, more allegiance towards ANAGA MAGA policy. There's
really four states that matter. There's Louisiana with Senator Cassidy,
who voted for the Trump impeachment already is already facing
a statewide challenger, a state wide elected challenger who's got
money and resources and will likely be in a very
(12:46):
tough position. There's John Cornyn in Texas, who is a
powerful member of the Senate but also has a million
people targeting him. There's Lindsey Graham, who is Trump's buddy,
but he's had a lifetime and a law career of
supporting everything from amnesty to a never ending wars. And
there's Joni Earns from Iowa, who people have put a
(13:07):
lot of eyes on because of her heasancy towards like
Pete has guests and parts of the Trump administration. Put
that aside, let's look at who is looking at a
tough re election fight. There are two Republicans. Susan Collins
who will if anyone challenge her would be a giant
mistake because she's the only one who could win that seat,
and Tom Tillis over in North Carolina. Both those members
(13:29):
will I mean, Susan Collins couldn't do whatever she wants
you Susan Collins, but Tom Tillis it would not be
shocking to sit there and see him maybe pushing away
from certain positions if they consider too extreme. At the
other end. There are two Democrats running for reelection in
states that Trump won, first being John Ossoff. John Ossof
in the Great State of Georgia, first termer. He kind
(13:52):
of looks like me if I shave my beard when
I have a beer, I look like Mike Lahler and
so so it's a choice. But you have him, and
you have got Gary Peters over in Michigan. Two senators
who are going to be looking at a very tough
thing out. John Aussip is very politically ideological. He's very
left wing. He might stay that way and say, challenge me,
I'll win reelection despite being left wing. Gary Peters he
(14:15):
might sit there and put his finger in the wind
and say, let me see how the win's blowing. Two
other senators are running for reelection who are going to
be in competitive seats, possibly first being Jean Shaheen, the
former governor term senator of New Hampshire. To say that
Trump lost by two points, there's potentially a big challenger
considering running against her with a lot of money and resources.
(14:38):
And then Mark Warner in Virginia, who could have a
challenge from Governor Glenn Younkin, the popular outgoing governor Virginia
has a weird rule. You can only run for one
term as a governor at a time. You can then
run for reelection after you give someone else a chance.
It's very strange, but Glenn Younkin will be out of
a job come twenty twenty five, so the chances of
running for re election starting for the send in twenty
(15:00):
twenty six. He will have nothing holding back. That's really
the economy though. Those few senators and those sixteen members,
those sixteen members will decide whether or not Mike Johnson
can hold and push forward Trump's agenda despite having only
three seats. Now, I know this was a lot of
information for a first episode, but you guys got to
(15:22):
be prepared for the year ahead. Thank you so much
for listening. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it.
I hope this is the beginning of a lot more episodes.
We'll have a guest on next week and we're going
to talk immigration policy. So come on check us out
every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, the Apple podcast, or
wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate you. Tune in
next time.
Welcome to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. Thank
you for being here for my premiere episode one of
I hope to be many many in the future. This
podcast is going to be dedicated to presenting listeners with
data and information rather than narratives. A lot of people
in the media care a lot about presenting narratives and
very little about giving just straight information and letting you decide.
(00:28):
I want you to decide by presenting you with the
data that will make you smarter, make you more interesting,
make you fun to listen to at dinner. And every
week's me a new episode, new guests on different topics,
mostly politics, but also the economy, culture, entertainment, sports.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
And if I need a guest to sit there and
be an expert in something, I will bring them to
you for that episode. Every episode will also have a
link of it to my National Populist newsletter on substack.
If you go to Natpopnewsletter dot com you can sign
up up for a thirty day free trial to read
and visually see what I'm going to tell you and
(01:06):
my first episode, I want to talk about the new year,
the new Congress, and the sort of new president. I
mean he's been there before, but he's essentially new president.
President Trump is going to come into the presidency with
a Republican Congress, Republican Senate. Fifty three members of the
Senate are Republicans, forty five are Democrats, two are independents,
and four hundred and thirty five members of Congress will
(01:28):
be I've just been elected. Two hundred and twenty were
elected as Republicans, two hundred and fifteen were elected as Democrats.
But the two big numbers from that you should draw
are the numbers three and the numbers sixteen. Three is
the majority in the House of Representatives. That is all
the Republicans have. And it's even more complicated for Speaker
(01:50):
Mike Johnson, who's trying to be re elected as Speaker.
The three person majority is smaller because one macates has.
Former Congressman that case now has retired after winning re election,
and there'll be a special election for his seat in
Florida's first district. At least Staphonic in Upstate New York
from Upstate New York is preparing to retire and resign
(02:13):
to go work for the Trump administration as the United
Nations Ambassador, and Mike Waltz from Florida is also preparing
to resign to go work for the Trump administration. That
gives Speaker Johnson very very little wiggle room. Now, I
imagine that Congresswomen's Saphonic and Congressman Walts will sign, will
swear in, they'll vote for Speaker Johnson, and then when
(02:34):
the Trump administration comes in and formally nominates them, then
they'll leave and go, and then the seats will be vacant.
All three seats are overwhelmingly Republican, likely to be replaced
by a Republican, but that takes time. Special elections take time,
and that means there'll be a window where Speaker Johnson
is very little wiggle room. And in a very diverse
(02:54):
Congress with a lot of different opinions within the Republican Party,
that is, people who are fiscal hawks who want to
fight over budget spending, you'll have more liberal Republicans, You'll
have more conservative Republicans, You'll have more populous Republicans. It's
hard to rope all those people together and everyone hold
hands in one giant family, especially when you've seen in
(03:15):
fighting before Congress already began. Likewise, Democrats have their own
issues where you have more AOC progressive wing versus on
Nancy Pelosi establish a wing and a handful of conservative
Democrats or more moderate Democrats like Josh Gothheimer, for example,
out of New Jersey. That is a different dichotomy altogether.
(03:36):
But Democrats are a much better job at holding their
part together than the Republicans do for an assortment of
reasons that I won't even go into today, but that's
definitely part of it. Now within the whole Congress, the
four hundred and thirty five. The other number I told
you to think about is the number sixteen. The number
sixteen represents the thirteen Democrats who won elect their election
(03:58):
or re election in seats that Trump won, and the
three Republicans who won their reelection in all three cases
in districts that Kamala Harris won. Now, the three Republicans
are Don Bacon from Nebraska's second Mike Lawler from New
York seventeen, and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania's first district. Don
(04:18):
Bacon is in a very Democratic seat. He will be
a much more moderate member of the party because he
asked to sit there and hold on. He did very
very well that he won by one point eight percent,
despite Trump losing his district by over four percent. Mike
Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick out of New York and Pennsylvania, respectively,
they won by a much larger margin because the margin
(04:39):
that Trump lost by was under a point in both seats.
So who are the thirteen Democrats?
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Though?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
The thirteen Democrats who woke up the day after election
day realizing that they were representing Republican districts, some of
whom were very surprised because those districts long were Democratic
strongholds and because the party has realigned with a lot
more working class people, some black voters, some Hispanic voters,
some Asian voters moving to the right. There all of
(05:06):
a sudden in a district that Trump won. There's two
out of California, Josh Harder and Adam Gray. That's the
Central Valley, very Latino, very Hispanic, moved very far to
the right. There's Jared Golden, a main main second congressional
It's northern Maine. He's always been a pretty conservative Democrat.
He votes for most of the Republican stuff on a
(05:26):
lot of bills. He wrote an article for I think
it was the Bangalor of Daily saying that he was
going to vote for Donald Trump. He's a pretty conservative member.
He barely won in a very very Republican seat. Then
there's the newly Then there's Dan Kilde from Michigan's eighth district,
which is around the city of Flint area. You have
Susie Lee in Nevada's third, which is south of Las Vegas.
(05:48):
Nellie Poe. He's brand new, so I might be mispronouncing
his name. I'm sorry, I am if I am. It's
New Jersey's ninth that's in like the suburbs of New
York City. You have Gay Basquez in southern New Mexico.
His seat is Jerry Mander, so heavily I'm surprised that
Trump won it, but he did. You have Tom Swazi,
which is in Long Island. He's a Democrat. That and
(06:08):
a district that Trump won by five points. Don Davis
in North Carolina that is the more rural, black, white,
working class area. He barely won it in a district
that's becoming much much more Republican. You have a Marcy
Captor who's been there since nineteen eighty two. She represents
an area of Ohio near Michigan. In a very reddening
(06:30):
part of the country to in Texas in what I
call the Fahita Belt. This is the part of the
country that touches Mexico. You have Henry Quaar from Texas
twenty eight and you have been Sane Gunzales from Texas
thirty four. Those are districts that are running to the
right so fast it is to make a speedy Gonzales show.
But that's that's ye know gross. Anyway, you have Maria
(06:54):
Goose camp Perez over in Washington's third which is South
Washington near the Oregon border. That's a lot in and
I described who they were and where they lived, because
if you live in one of their district your voice
really matters. If they so choose to run for a
re election, they have incredibly tough fights. They're going to
have to run in districts they support Trump. They support
(07:16):
a lot of Trump's agenda. They probably support mass deportation
or tax cuts, or you know, a foreign policy that
looks more like Trump and less like Joe Biden. They
will be in a difficult position. So when then that's
a double sided sword. By the way, so when Speaker
Johnson says, hey, I need to pass continuing resolutions that
(07:38):
include things that a lot of conservative Republicans don't like. Well,
they have no problem because they're sit in there and
standing with the speaker, and it kind of isolates a
lot of conservative Republicans on spending bills, and at the
same exact time, they have the ability and the flexibility
to say, I'm voting for border le funding, I'm voting
for enforcement funding, i am voting for tax cuts or whatever.
(07:59):
The Republican is agenda is that it's considered centrist and
moderate without isolating Democrats. Because like Susan Collins, who is
perceied to be the only Republican to win in a
blue state, they're considered some of the only Democrats to
win in a red district. And that's really where that
number sixteen comes in and why it is so important
because in twenty twenty five, in the first few months
(08:20):
of the year, or maybe it's like the first year,
first year of the of his presidency, most of Trump's
legislative accomplishments are gonna, you know, come about and pass,
or they're going to whether or on the vine you're
listening to, it's a numbers game. With Ryan Gerdosky, we'll
be right back. There are a few other members that
(08:41):
are worth looking at. These are members who are in
more swing districts. They are in districts maybe Trump won
but he barely won. They're in districts that Harris won
but they're going far to the right, or districts that
are moving to the left of they're Republican, And I'm
thinking of if you're a Democrat, right, if you're a
Democrat all throughout states of like California. California has so
(09:04):
many Democrats besides just Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who
I've talked about, but George Whitehouse, he's in Califorlifornia twenty
seven district. He's in a district that he won by
a decent margin, but Trump's. That was a Biden double
digit district and now it is a barely barely barely
Democratic district. Left, you're talking about David min from Orange County,
(09:25):
and you're talking about Derek Tran also from Orange County.
That's an area that as Asians have sat there and
changed their political affiliation more to the right, your politics
have changed with them. There's also a district in South
Florida for Jared Moscowitz that you're thinking of and all
around the New York City suburban districts and New York
City districts. Like I said Tom Swazi before, but Laura Gillan,
(09:48):
Pat Ryan, Josh Riley, the House majority and the future
House majority will run through blue states. I don't think
people realize this. A lot of other pundits will say,
get out the Blue states, just lead, just leave. Why
you're still there, And I get it, I'm still in
a blue states. It's a lot. But if you want
a Republican majority, you need those California districts, you need
(10:09):
those New York districts, you need those Minnesota districts and
those New Jersey districts. And Jerry Manner has made him harder,
but it's not impossible. And those members are in tough seats.
There are also a few Republicans who are in districts
that are getting bluer and blue and bluer. You're talking
about Juan Siscamani over in Arizona. He's a very conservative member,
but he is in a district that is very tough.
(10:31):
Just sit there and win in. You're talking about Scott
Perry over in Pennsylvania, which is basically the Harrisburg District.
Now he is a Freedom Caucus member. He's a very
conservative member in a district that is getting very, very,
very tough for Republicans to compete in. So maybe he'll
moderate more. I don't know. He's pretty pretty hardcore on
his conservative beliefs, but who knows. Maybe I'll sit there
and say, this is the only way I could survive
(10:52):
in this very tough position and keep the Republicans from
having another landslide loss in twenty twenty six, or keep
the majority possibly or vote for Trump's agenda, which is
the point of this entire thing. How Republicans and Democrats
performed in twenty twenty four effects twenty twenty five. Incredibly,
(11:13):
I want to just take one second, although these were
not my two numbers, and just mention the Senate. The
Senate will be an interesting thing because you'll have senators
who are retiring, and you'll have senators who are up
for very tough primaries. Specifically eyeing two people in particular,
Mitch McConnell and Jim Reech. Jim Reach represents Idaho. He
will be eighty three years old in twenty twenty six
(11:35):
for reelection. Mitch McConnell will be eighty four obviously has
had a number of health episodes, and how they vote
in the upcoming Congress will be if they want, how
they want their legacy to be. Now, Mitch mcconnel's really
made his legacy, but if he spends his last two
years sitting there and giving the middle finger to Donald Trump,
that will be part of his legacy. If Jim Reech,
(11:59):
who most probably not know, decides to be the Mitt
Romney of twenty twenty five, that will be part of
his legacy. And it depends on how he wants to
really be covered for the rest of his life and
at the end of his life. There's also and Democrats
on him that many eyes for retirement, possibly Dick Durbin,
but who knows. I mean, we'll see. There are essentially
when it comes to Republican primaries, there's for incumbents who
(12:24):
are facing challenges who will have to show more allegiance
to Donald Trump, more allegiance towards ANAGA MAGA policy. There's
really four states that matter. There's Louisiana with Senator Cassidy,
who voted for the Trump impeachment already is already facing
a statewide challenger, a state wide elected challenger who's got
money and resources and will likely be in a very
(12:46):
tough position. There's John Cornyn in Texas, who is a
powerful member of the Senate but also has a million
people targeting him. There's Lindsey Graham, who is Trump's buddy,
but he's had a lifetime and a law career of
supporting everything from amnesty to a never ending wars. And
there's Joni Earns from Iowa, who people have put a
(13:07):
lot of eyes on because of her heasancy towards like
Pete has guests and parts of the Trump administration. Put
that aside, let's look at who is looking at a
tough re election fight. There are two Republicans. Susan Collins
who will if anyone challenge her would be a giant
mistake because she's the only one who could win that seat,
and Tom Tillis over in North Carolina. Both those members
(13:29):
will I mean, Susan Collins couldn't do whatever she wants
you Susan Collins, but Tom Tillis it would not be
shocking to sit there and see him maybe pushing away
from certain positions if they consider too extreme. At the
other end. There are two Democrats running for reelection in
states that Trump won, first being John Ossoff. John Ossof
in the Great State of Georgia, first termer. He kind
(13:52):
of looks like me if I shave my beard when
I have a beer, I look like Mike Lahler and
so so it's a choice. But you have him, and
you have got Gary Peters over in Michigan. Two senators
who are going to be looking at a very tough
thing out. John Aussip is very politically ideological. He's very
left wing. He might stay that way and say, challenge me,
I'll win reelection despite being left wing. Gary Peters he
(14:15):
might sit there and put his finger in the wind
and say, let me see how the win's blowing. Two
other senators are running for reelection who are going to
be in competitive seats, possibly first being Jean Shaheen, the
former governor term senator of New Hampshire. To say that
Trump lost by two points, there's potentially a big challenger
considering running against her with a lot of money and resources.
(14:38):
And then Mark Warner in Virginia, who could have a
challenge from Governor Glenn Younkin, the popular outgoing governor Virginia
has a weird rule. You can only run for one
term as a governor at a time. You can then
run for reelection after you give someone else a chance.
It's very strange, but Glenn Younkin will be out of
a job come twenty twenty five, so the chances of
running for re election starting for the send in twenty
(15:00):
twenty six. He will have nothing holding back. That's really
the economy though. Those few senators and those sixteen members,
those sixteen members will decide whether or not Mike Johnson
can hold and push forward Trump's agenda despite having only
three seats. Now, I know this was a lot of
information for a first episode, but you guys got to
(15:22):
be prepared for the year ahead. Thank you so much
for listening. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate it.
I hope this is the beginning of a lot more episodes.
We'll have a guest on next week and we're going
to talk immigration policy. So come on check us out
every Monday on the iHeartRadio app, the Apple podcast, or
wherever you get your podcast. I appreciate you. Tune in
next time.
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