May 1, 2025 • 31 mins
In this episode, Ryan speaks with James Johnson, founder of JL Partners, about the current state of Trump's approval ratings, the methodologies behind polling, and the impact of tariffs on voter sentiment. They discuss the discrepancies in polling results, particularly among different demographics, and the challenges faced by pollsters in accurately capturing public opinion in a rapidly changing political landscape. Johnson emphasizes the importance of adapting polling methods to engage a broader range of voters, particularly younger and busy individuals, while also addressing the complexities surrounding Trump's policies and their reception among various voter groups. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Urduski. Thank
you all for being here again this week on this
Thursday's episode, once again on twice a week. So please
like and subscribe to You're on both episodes. You get
both episodes every week. It means a lot to us.
It was a very busy week, and I want to
start off by thanking everyone who sent me a message
on social media, but wishing me a happy birthday. That
meant a lot. It was really really great. If I
(00:23):
have the if I can, I just want to go
on a little jant for a second. On the birthday,
I went to go there's something called luckyseats dot com
in New York week you can win lottery tickets for
cheap Broadway tickets. So I did. I won them, and
I went to see Sunset Boulevard with Nicole sharon'ser Shirvanser,
I think it's her last name. She's from the Pussycat
(00:44):
Dolls and America's got talent. I'm sure you might have
seen her picture or her song somewhere anyway. So she's
starring in Sunset Boulevard. She's getting all this praise, so
we go to see it. I've seen the original with
Glenn Close, you know, a while ago, and everyone's saying
this is like the show to see. I go to
see it. It was a flaming pile of garbage. It
was horrible. In my opinion, it was one of the
(01:07):
top five worst things I've ever seen. The show is
from a Billy Waller movie from the fifties. It's not
a musical the original movie. It was made to a
music by Angeloa Weber, starring Glenn Close on Broadway Pilot
pone started in London. It's about an aging silent film
actress in the nineteen fifties and forties rather who wants
to make a comeback and she's kind of going insane
(01:28):
because she's believing that she's as famous as she used
to be. And it worked for Glenn Close because Glenn
Close kind of looks a little crazy once in a while,
like one hundred and one downations Glenn Close, and she
looks like an older woman, an older actress. Nicole shearings
Aer who started in this version, looks like a very young,
good looking woman. Although she's probably of the correct age
(01:49):
for the time, she doesn't look the age anymore. It
was in a black Box theater. It's everything bad about
like new age theater. Like people are in track suits,
there's no time, I'm coordination, there's no costumes, there's no sets,
and there's no point. Do you believe that she's actually
Norman Desmond? It was horrible. Okay, sorry, I had to
(02:10):
say that to somebody, and no one wants to hear
me ran about theater, and you're my captive audience, so
you get to hear about it. Now to the news
of the actual week. I want to go back and
focus on what we talked about last week and earlier
this week because it's important and it's still something that
people are talking about it and the news broke. So
first of all, the Canadian election, the Liberal Party, as expected,
(02:31):
made the big comeback, biggest comeback in Canadian politics, and
when their fourth consecutive government, they beat the Conservative Party
by forty three point seven percent of the vote to
forty one point seven percent of the vote, winning by
two points. They got one hundred and sixty nine seats
they call them writings in Canada instead of seats, but
one hundred and sixty nine writings able to form a
(02:51):
minority government, probably with the support of either the Progressive
New Democratic Party or the French Canadian Party of the
Block Quebecs. So we'll see what goes on, how they
end up government. But they have minority government. The casual
viewer in America who doesn't really spend a lot of
time listening to a Canadian news or Canadian politics, which
is most of us, no shame, but it is what
it is. They sat there and they heard about it,
(03:14):
and on social media they were like, well, I guess
Pierre Pola there, the leader of the Conservative Party who
ended up pilightly losing his own seat in the parliament,
his own writing that actually flipped to the Liberal Party.
He must have done a terrible job. And just like
the party lost and they just they weren't they were
insufficiently conservative. I want to actually go a little deeper
(03:34):
for the American audience who may not know what actually happened,
and really give you a good understanding. First of all,
the Canadian Conservative Party had their best performances nineteen eighty eight.
They grew their coalition based upon the data of these
writings of these seats by fifteen to twenty points among minorities, immigrants,
(03:56):
young people, and blue collar voters in the area outside
of Michigan, that part of Canada which is very heavy manufacturing, free,
very blue collar. In the ethnic suburbs outside Toronto and Vancouver.
There was like a fifteen to twenty point swing in
some of these districts some of these writings. Overall, Conservatives
gained seven point six percent more of the popular vote
(04:17):
than they got last time. So what happened. Well, first
of all, baby boomers happened. Baby Boomer's number one issue
in Canada, according to the Exit poles, was stopping Trump.
Young people wanted the economy be better. Old people wanted
to stop Trump. It is like a whole nation of
Rachel Mattow viewers. It is problematic. That's why when you
(04:38):
say someone say at Canada as the fifty first state, no,
please do not keep them where they are. We don't don't,
we don't need that. Also, college educated voters moved to
the left. This is why Pierre Poulaverir's seat flipped because
he's in a very heavily college educated writing. He's in
a very college educated district districts that used to be
(05:01):
solidly conservative. It's the same thing we've seen in America
in the last election with Trump. It's what we're seeing
in Europe, this great realignment of young people, of ethnic minorities,
of blue collar people moving to the right, and older
voters in many cases moving to the left. And that's
what we saw in Canada. And this is the best
(05:23):
election for the Conservatives since nineteen eighty eight. It sets
them in a good place for the next election, certainly
depending on what's going on and who's ever in charge
of our country and their country and what the economy
looks like. But that is what happened. It wasn't a
complete disaster for the Conservatives. It was a big disappointment.
(05:44):
But if the third parties one last thing, the third
there's multiple progressive parties in Canada. There's the Green Party,
the Bau Quebec, the New Democratics, whatever. The New Democratics
lost almost all their support, their numbers plummeted, so it
wasn't so much as the center was holding for the Liberals.
(06:05):
The New Democrats, part of the block Quebecs, part of
the Green Party moved to the Liberals. So the far
right moved to the Liberals, and the centrist voters who
were part of the Liberal Party moved to the conservatives.
They're just happening more far left liberals in Canada than
there were centrist who moved. So that's what happened. Wasn't
(06:25):
a complete disaster with the conservative It was actually a
fairly strong showing. And we'll see what happens in that
country going forward. And on Monday Show, we talked about
Trump's first one hundred days in office. Now, this show
was taped ahead of the Monday Program, which we always do.
We were table at least a few days ahead of time,
or a day ahead of time in this case, and
we taped the episode on Friday. Well, of course on
(06:48):
Sunday what comes out, but a ton of new polling
it pulls up. We didn't mention that when I taped
down on a Friday because we didn't have them yet.
And the headlines from the Washington Post and the New
York Times and a bunch of other publication said Trump
has his worst performance in history. He's the worst performing
president of the modern era, worse than he did the
first term. Republicans are on a precipice for a doomsday disaster.
(07:12):
You've heard these headlines before they were regurgitated. So I
wanted to go over them, and I pulled all the data.
I put on my substack, the National Populist newsletter. It's
free there for everyone who wants to listen. You have
to subscribe. You could just go there and read it.
I pulled all the data and I want to go
over it. So from April, these were the major polls,
and I'll give you the poll number, the name of
(07:33):
the pollster, and the margin at which Trump's at. The
ABC Washington Post Pole had him at negative thirteen. New
York Times had a negative twelve, CNN had negative fourteen,
CBS was negative ten, The Economist was negative nine, Fox
News was negative eleven, Atlas Intel was negative six, Pew
Research was negative nineteen, Quinny Peck was negative twelve. Quantus
(07:56):
Insight was negative three. And so if you average that out,
you have about a negative eleven. That's where he is
on average, negative eleven. But there's two numbers there that
are much different than all the other numbers, Atlas Intel
and Quantus Insight. Alice Intel has meant negative six, Quantus
Insight has meant negative three. They're both taken a little
(08:18):
while earlier in April, but after Liberation Day, after the tariffs.
Alice Intel was the number one most accurate pollster of
twenty twenty four. Quantus was the third most accurates pollster
of twenty twenty four. So why are their numbers significantly
better for Trump than the New York Times, Sienna, New
York Times, Santa Poll, the CNN poll, the Washington Post pol.
(08:39):
Why are they different? And they actually match an NRCC
and that's a National Republican Congressional Committee internal poll which
had the president of negative seven. So they're in the
same They're all playing the same kind of realm. So
why are their polls much different than the mainstream media polls.
I went through the cross tabs to look the major
(08:59):
difference is there's a double digit difference among Republicans. First
of all, Quantus and Atlas their polls have Trump in
the mid eighties among Republicans. All the other pollsters have
him barely crossing seventy. And I am more inclined to
(09:20):
believe an Atlas poll or a Quantus poll showing that
Trump's approval among Republicans probably hasn't dipped all that much.
I mean, Republicans have been loiled for him for a
lot crazier things and a lot more ups and downs
than just the tariff anouncement. Also a double digit difference
among independents. Some of these polls have Trump's independent numbers
(09:43):
in horrific territory. I mean, I'm talking negative thirty five,
negative forty seven, negative thirty six, negative twenty five. Negative
twenty five is actually a good number. In some of
these polls, Alice Intel has met negative eighteen and Quantus
has been negative twelve. That's a much different place than
negative thirty seven. It's not great eight, but it's not
negative thirty seven. These double digit margins matter a lot,
(10:05):
and overall the average among Hispanics for these poles is
much higher. Hispanics saw this big realignment, like the when
we just saw on Canada we had a re alignment
in twenty twenty four, Hispanics moved to the right. Did
they all of a sudden move to the left of
the re alignment get erased? And the big, big, big
question mark that kind of raised on my spicy senses,
my pols or spidy senses, was this His support among
(10:28):
black voters is as high as it was post election. So,
in other words, all of the decline of support among
minorities really primarily comes from Latino. Could that be because
the mass depredations, maybe, But could it also be from
over sampling Latino progressives and Democrats and centrists. Yes, it could,
(10:53):
because that happens quite a bit. It happened throughout the
twenty twenty four election in many polls that said Trump
could not cross thirty five percent among life Tinos, when
he crossed the mid forties. I think that all those
things are feeding these negative pole members, and I am
more inclined to believe an antless intel poll which is
matching the NRCC pole, which is matching the quantities insight
pole over the sexy headlines of the New York Times
(11:16):
and the Washington Post and all these other outlets really
have been pushing forever. That's my personal opinion. Now we'll
see what happens. Tariffs have been destabilized at the market.
Our GDP numbers have just released as we're recording this
podcast on Wednesday, showing a shrinkage in the economy of
point three percent, which is concerning. It's not we're not
(11:38):
in a great place, but I don't believe we're in
a doomsday scenario. I don't think Trump's in a doomsday scenario,
and I think we have a while till the midterm
election of our polls really start to matter. But I
don't think that the prevailing narrative, like it's not in
the Canadian election, the prevailing narrative over Trump is not accurate.
One poster that I did not mention in in the
(12:00):
summary of all these polls is my buddy James Johnson.
He is a polster from the UK. He was one
of the most accurate polsters in twenty twenty four. He
has a much different opinion than the headlines and the
prevailing narrative over Trump, and he'll be with us next
so stay tuned to hear what he has to say.
James Johnson is the founder of j L Partners. He
(12:22):
has a lot of stuff that gets published in the
Daily Mail. He was once the polster for the Prime
Minister of England. He's a good buddy of mine. James,
thanks for being on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Thanks for having me. Ron.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
So you have a new poll out from it's in
the Daily Mail. What is your findings on Trump's approval rating?
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Right, so, we do think that Trump's approval rating has
gone down. We've got a forty five percent before we
were actually about fifty percent for Trump. In fact, two
weeks ago we had him at his joint highest approval rating.
So we've generally shown better numbers for Trump than the average.
We do think he's come down a bit. We think
he's in the mid forties. We think, however, he's nowhere
(13:00):
near some of the more dire ratings that some of
the poles as are putting out. So we don't think
he's on thirty eight thirty nine percent. We think he's
in the mid forties. Actually, by Trump standards, that's really
not that bad.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Right, So okay, so first things first I did. I
looked at all the polls that had just recently come out,
and the interesting thing about them, where pollsters like you Atlas,
Intel and Quantus Insights, you, the three you're at three
poles are much more alike with each other than other polls.
(13:32):
What's your what's his unfavorable number? If it's favoral is forty.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Five fifty five? We do it without the donotes, okay,
so oh gotcha?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
All right, so it's ten with no donuts, gotcha. Now.
The thing that I found interesting, and the reason I
think it was interesting, is that in the ABC Washington Post,
the New York Times, CNN, CBS, economists, you name it.
Trump's favorable numbers with all those pollsters among Republicans is
somewhere in the low seventies. The now for you guys,
(14:00):
for your pole, they just came, it's eighty five. And
that ten point margin among Republicans, and also you have
a isentially higher support among independents that makes up a
large chunk of the favorability rating. Do you think that
there's any possibly like one in four Republicans have an
unfavorable opinion of him.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
No, No, okay, And if this is the thing, so,
I think a lot of pollsters are well.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
I think it's a lot of reasons behind this.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
But the fundamental problem with some of these polls is
that they are still getting too many Harris voters in
their samples. Now, that was a problem in twenty twenty four,
where people were getting too many people.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Intending to vote Harris.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
But they've now got too many people who voted Harris
in twenty twenty four in their samples to debt to death.
And that's the reason you're getting these Republicans who actually
are not indicative of Republicans as a whole. They are
Republicans who actually perhaps opted for Harris in twenty four
or indeed didn't vote. So I think we're getting these
Poles who they did not do very well in twenty four,
(15:03):
and now they're putting out these bad approval ratings of Trump.
I have to say, right, I find it baffling. I
find it incredible if you just take the three posters
with the lowest Trump ratings that also had Poles in
twenty twenty four, let me read them out to you. ABC,
Washington Post, Dipsos. They've got thirty nine percent Trump approval.
They had Harris three points ahead in November in an
SRSS forty one percent Trump approval. They had Harris winning
(15:25):
by six points in Wisconsin, five points in Michigan. New
York Times Sienna often talks about as a gold standard
forty two percent Trump approval. They had Harris winning all
the swing states by Arizona. Now, I don't need to
point out to your esteemed listeners that's not what happened.
Trump won the popular vote anyone, all seven sin swing states.
So I find it slightly baffling that these media outlets
(15:47):
are still hiring the exact same polsters with the exact
same methodology that meant that they fell so far wide
of the mark in November.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Well, I mean the New York Times poll did a
little better than the other ones, as I believe they
were in version of error in most of the swing stations.
Is why I still listen to them. I like CNN
for the fact that they show cross tabs. I mean,
that's really all I have to go for them. I'm like, Okay,
at least I can see the I can see the work,
and a lot of other poles they don't show cross
steps or they show limited ones, even like Wuinnipiac, which
(16:15):
those limited ones. But so you were at a piece
with the Spectator where you went in on these polsters
and why that they were wrong? Is it the fact?
And this has been my long standing opinion, especially when
a him to polling senior citizens senior citizen poll in
many polls, like even the New York Times Sanaple which
you just mentioned, in the swing states in Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania, they had Harris not only winning seniors in
(16:37):
those states, but they went winning them by double digits.
I think in Michigan they had her winning by twenty
points senior citizens, senior citizens have moved to the left
as polier. Senior citizens who were I would say silent
generation or greatest generation have died off and baby boomers,
who are more progressive have become senior citizens. I said,
it's like, you know, it's like the archie Bunker was
a senior citizen. He's no longer alive. Meat loaf. The
(16:59):
liberal son alone is a senior citizen now. But among
senior citizens there is a there are there are older
liberals who are you know MSNBC viewers who would break
someone's neck to go answer a poll. They will do
anything to answer a pole. They cannot wait to tell
you how much they hate Trump, And that same kind
(17:21):
of participation is not is not there for conservative senior citizens.
Do you find that as well as that why we're
seeing these numbers that are sometimes very off in that
in that demographic.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Yeah, I think that's a key factor.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Our research during the twenty twenty four election showed that
the group that was most likely to pick up a
landline polling pool were older, white middle class women. Now,
I haven't got anything against older white middle class women.
They're an important group to poll, but they're not so
important that they should flood your your polling answers, and
(17:56):
that group is more likely to vote Democrat than a
Republican way. Is what was behind that and Seltzer's disastrous
Iowa pole. She only used landline polling, she picked up
more of those people. She thought that was the story
of the election. It was actually the.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Story of her polling buyers. So that is a big element.
Speaker 3 (18:12):
The fundamental problem I think to that poll to others
is that they are using traditional methods in an information
ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore. For every voter, I sort
of think of them as having a bubble around their head,
and they've got media on one hand giving them some things.
They've got AI on the other giving them some things.
(18:32):
They've got social media. They've also got their friends and family.
They've also just got their own view of the world,
and polling has to sort of overlap with that bubble.
You can't just go people on landlines and only penetrate
a bit of that. You've got to a potion in
a different way. So one of the things that we
do alongside the traditional methods is in app polling. So
if you're playing a game on your phone or you're
(18:54):
online shopping, you get a notification, do you want to
get a discount or do you want to win fifty
thousand game points? Complete this short survey. It picks up
people who are not who are not answering those traditional things.
It picks up more disengaged people. It also picks up
busy people. Ryan a key part of the Trump coalition
were busy blue collar workers who weren't going to go
(19:14):
and answer a poll. It wasn't because they didn't distrust
the bowling. It was because they were working all day
and didn't have the time.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
So problem when you have like the economists, which asks
the economists you go poles which literally ask one hundred
and eighty seven questions, so like you have to spend
an hour of your day. Now they pay people or
do those poles, which I think also feeds into the inaccuracy.
But you have to do one hundred and eighty sum questions.
So in your piece that you know that Trump's approvings
(19:42):
have gone down, how much of it is tariffs? And
what is the conversation tariffs are having a month?
Speaker 3 (19:48):
So we asked people in that same poll, what is
the reason that you feel more negative towards Trump? And
we asked that of people, of everyone, but we've narrowed
it down in the analysis to Trump voters, now too
small a samples to say too much about. But the
general gist of those answers was that it was about tariffs.
And we actually did a word cloud and the most
mentioned word in the word cloud was the word tariffs. However,
(20:11):
I think it's more complicated than just people think tariffs
are bad. I don't think they do. When Trump first
announced his Liberation Day tariffs, we actually had Trump's approval
at fifty four percent the week after. They respected when
we dug into the numbers. They respected a sense of direction,
a sense of strength, a sense of this is what
he said he'd do. What we've actually seen happened since
(20:33):
is that since Trump softened and changed some of his
positions on tariffs, voters have lost a bit of that
benefit of the doubt. They're less saying he's strong, he's
getting things done, he's taking a strong stance on this.
They're more saying, well, I still trust Trump, I still
like him, but I'm not quite sure what the strategy is,
what's the plan here? And that's taken away a bit
of that respect, and it's made people worry a little
(20:55):
bit more about the impact on their four oh one
k and their wallets.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
So, look, I don't think this is a.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
That's exactly what I've been saying to everyone in Washington
is that I don't I who work in the media
a lot, and I know every I know a lot
of members of Congress and the Trump administration, and I
work for the Vice president. I don't know what what
the plan is. I don't know. I don't understand what
the end goal is with the tariffs, and it's very
(21:21):
very frustrating. I'm looking at your word bubble right now.
Tariffs is like not only the biggest word, it takes
upody I think at least probably forty percent of all
the space available. And then in the lower words, the
words that are are not as big as tariffs are
tariff tariffs spelled a different way with two r's instead
of the two f's, mosque elon doje. And then minor
(21:44):
lower is like deportations, which is very very very small,
but it's mostly China's. There is a small bubble. Ukraine
is a very small bubble, but it is almost entirely tariffs.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
Yeah, and I think it's particularly this this this watering
down the people have wondered. Look from a political CON's
point of view, that's either a that's either an issue
of well, you know, perhaps the U turn, perhaps he
shouldn't have changed position, or perhaps you shouldn't have brought
it in the first place if it was always inevitably
that it was going to change position. It reminds me
of a British example, Ryan of Liz Truss. She was
(22:17):
Prime Minister in the UK for a very short period.
She ended up resigning. She went from pretty good approval
ratings to catechismically bad ones. And the reason is not
so much because of the economic policy that she took,
but the fact she reversed it massively.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
She lost that hunch. Now.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
I don't think we're seeing the same thing happen here.
I don't think we are seeing an abandonment of Trump.
I think this is people just going a bit like, okay,
I'm still with him, but what's the plan they want
that reassurance. I don't think it's an abandonment on trust levels.
But it's similar in that it's the reversal that's done
the damage rather than the policy itself, but just very quickly.
Ry So I just want to pick up on something
you said there. What this isn't It is not a
(22:52):
backlash against deportations. It is not a backlash against the
case of Garcia in Al Salvador. It is not really
even a bat against Elon Musk or Doche. It's not
a backlash against Trump's style. It's not a backlash on
Ukraine and Zelenski. It's a very particular thing that has
just made them doubt whether Trump's cat a strategy. On
the bulk of the Trump policy platform, his voters are
(23:14):
still really, really behind him.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Now, I want to bring up something else that you
put it in your poll. I'm looking at the cross
tims you've made about approval disapproval with the neutral there,
with the I don't know Trump's numbers, My Hispanics have
fallen substantially, and this has been in a lot of
different poles. That actually makes me question whether they're or
correct or not. Did the entire realignment that affected how
you know, this election? Last election went and his bag
(23:38):
supporting Trump has fallen apart because of deportations.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
No, I don't think it has.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
I think we'd be careful with those small, small cross
tab numbers. I think all polsters at this stage, remember,
are not trying to predict an election, so they therefore
are a little bit like you know that that that
they're spending a bit less money, frankly, And I think
that's also why we get a lot of these more
garbage poles coming out, because people are just actually investing
a lot less in it, because their reputation is riding
(24:05):
on it less. Right, So I'd always be I'd always
be cautious even with my own poll about cross tabs
at this cross breaks at that level at the stage
when I've carried on doing one to one voter interviews
with voters since since the election, and I was actually
doing Hispanic voter interviews in Nevada a couple of weeks ago,
and the general gist that I get is that actually,
(24:28):
although they do not want to go out and show
and talk to their friends and families saying they're in
support of deportations, actually their support for them has basically
remained pretty stable since the election. Yes, they're more nervous
about talking about it and telling the neighbors that they
support President Trump, but actually on the bulk of the
fairness issue, I think they're pretty much in line. The
(24:50):
message I got again and again and again in an
election I still get now is I did it the
right way. These people did it the wrong way. So
I don't think that's gone. Look, I don't think these Hispanics,
especially Hispanic men, who came over to Trump, I don't
think they became lifelong Republicans overnight. But I do think
they became swing voters for the first time in that election.
That doesn't mean the Republicans have goten for good. It
(25:10):
means they're up for grabs, But it also means they
haven't lost them either.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Got it Okay, Well that's I mean, that's good to
know the other part of the cross tabs, and I
know not to get to obsess them. But this is
not laying your cressos. This is in everybody's young people.
Young people. There was a research done by David Shore
that showed that young men between these of eighteen to
twenty one were the most Republican demographic. The Yale poll
came out right afterwards, showing that young men were plan
(25:33):
voting for Republicans in the twenty twenty six mid terms
at the greatest portion of any group. Your poll has
Trump falling. I think twenty points among young men. Other
polls actually a bit for much much lower, not young men,
young people as a whole. What is your opinion of
the youth vote and how that's changed, Because they would
seemingly be the least affected by tariffs in the stock
(25:55):
market because they don't have, you know, a lot of stocks,
and they're not, you know, their four to one k
plans are rather small to fit a boom orrogen X.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
It's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
I think that is right, But they are also a
group young men are also a group that are more
like he's been plugged into financial news, and I think
they're more what our research are shown, they're more likely
to be tracking things like cryptocurrency, things like stocks on
their phone than actually any group, even those who actually
have more stocks.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
So it's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
They do seem to be a bit more plugged into
that sort of information system that means that they see
those things.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
So I think there's a bit of that.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
Look again, I would just come back to the point
that I don't think there's any I don't think they're
lost for good by any stretch. I think we have
got a really interesting generational shift here, and I do
think young men both in America and in other countries
are having a real backlash to some of the stuff
that's have been out there about gender rights. I spoke
to a eighteen year old black man in Nevada as
(26:52):
a swing voter interview. He was a first time Trump voter.
I mean, he was a first time voter, but he
is voting trumpet for the first time of anyone in
his family and for him.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
I asked him why, and he just came.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Back to the Democrats are pushing nonsense on gender and
they want you know, they're pushing all this stuff on trends,
and I'm more interested in the economy now. His view
was that Trump had to improve the economy for him
to carry on voting Republican. So he's not with Trump
for good, but he's giving Trump a chance, and he's
giving the Republican Party a chance. I do think though,
that if the Republicans need to be concerned about one thing,
(27:26):
it's how they get out these younger men, younger non
white voters who gave Trump a vote for the first time.
How do they get them out in twenty twenty six
Because these are not people who have traditionally voted a
lot in these elections, and that's the big challenge I think.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
Yeah, I mean that's the problem where you have with
the with Boomer's movies, a lt of people who are
always voting, voting consistently, you'll have That's why you're seeing
the special elections move ten twenty points and some seats
that they're really not competitive in it, and it might
be a very big problem for the midterms. I agree
with that sentiment. I don't really know the answer the
top of my head, but I think that that is
(28:00):
really important part. What is the most if you were
to sit there and talk to somebody about from like
the White House, about an administration about the whole tariffs,
would it be to double down on a plan or
to kind of walk back and announce a bunch of
free trade agreements and and just you know, call it
a day. What would be what would be the best
impactful for a polls? You know, because you have a
(28:22):
few months until they start really mattering ahead of the midterms,
But what would your opinion be?
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, Look, my first I'm going to I promise I'm
going to answer your question, Ryan, But my first, my
instinctive answer to that is ignore us, ignore the pollsters.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Do what you think is right for the country.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
Like you know, President Trump, if if he's going to
face what usually happens at the mid terms, which is
that the opposition wins, then he should use this two
years to do whatever the hell he wants to improve
the country, so that that would be That's my fundamental answer.
But if you're looking at how to message it best,
I think you know, and I think that it's probably
now showing that this is a plan that is paid
(29:00):
off and that it's resulting in this free trade deal,
this trade deal, tying it back to it. If they
can't do that, then I think it's probably best to
get off the issue and move on to something else.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
James Andson. Where can people go to read your stuff,
read your polls, all your information?
Speaker 3 (29:16):
So they go on Twitter x is the best place,
James Johnson two five two, And if you also look
on jail partners dot com that's where we upload all
of our latest polling and you can also get in
touch there if you're interested in any further information.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Cheers James Andson, Happy birthday. Thank you so much. You
do great jobs in polling and people should check it
out now.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Thanks so much.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Ron you're listening to It's The Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski.
We'll be right back after this message. And now for
the Ask Me anything part of this show. Once again,
please send me a questions about literally anything that I
can answer. I'll do the research for you. Can ema
me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's plural numbers,
(29:58):
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast, come my email. This question
this week was actually so simple. Do you have a
book recommendation for me? And I do so. This is
not a popular World War two book. It's not like huge,
but it's one of my favorites called Diary of a
Man in Despair by Friedrich Reich R. E. C. K.
It is a book about a German aristocrat watching the
(30:19):
rise of Nazis and losing his country. It is written
from a conservative perspective. It's beautiful, it's heartbreaking, it's his
own it's it's his diary, so it's it's it's very powerful,
beautiful book. Love it, love it, love it. Cannot recommend
it enough to people once again. Diary of a Man
in Despair by Frederick Reich quick and easy, and it's
(30:39):
also not super long. I'm the middle of reading a
book right now, which is like seven hundred pages, and
sometimes it's this is this book's a slog. It's a
good book, but it's a slog. So maybe i'll give
you a review when I'm finally.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Done with it.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Anyway, thank you all for listening this week. I really
appreciate all of you. Please like and subscribe at the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, and
please check us out next week. Thank you all.
Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Ryan Urduski. Thank
you all for being here again this week on this
Thursday's episode, once again on twice a week. So please
like and subscribe to You're on both episodes. You get
both episodes every week. It means a lot to us.
It was a very busy week, and I want to
start off by thanking everyone who sent me a message
on social media, but wishing me a happy birthday. That
meant a lot. It was really really great. If I
(00:23):
have the if I can, I just want to go
on a little jant for a second. On the birthday,
I went to go there's something called luckyseats dot com
in New York week you can win lottery tickets for
cheap Broadway tickets. So I did. I won them, and
I went to see Sunset Boulevard with Nicole sharon'ser Shirvanser,
I think it's her last name. She's from the Pussycat
(00:44):
Dolls and America's got talent. I'm sure you might have
seen her picture or her song somewhere anyway. So she's
starring in Sunset Boulevard. She's getting all this praise, so
we go to see it. I've seen the original with
Glenn Close, you know, a while ago, and everyone's saying
this is like the show to see. I go to
see it. It was a flaming pile of garbage. It
was horrible. In my opinion, it was one of the
(01:07):
top five worst things I've ever seen. The show is
from a Billy Waller movie from the fifties. It's not
a musical the original movie. It was made to a
music by Angeloa Weber, starring Glenn Close on Broadway Pilot
pone started in London. It's about an aging silent film
actress in the nineteen fifties and forties rather who wants
to make a comeback and she's kind of going insane
(01:28):
because she's believing that she's as famous as she used
to be. And it worked for Glenn Close because Glenn
Close kind of looks a little crazy once in a while,
like one hundred and one downations Glenn Close, and she
looks like an older woman, an older actress. Nicole shearings
Aer who started in this version, looks like a very young,
good looking woman. Although she's probably of the correct age
(01:49):
for the time, she doesn't look the age anymore. It
was in a black Box theater. It's everything bad about
like new age theater. Like people are in track suits,
there's no time, I'm coordination, there's no costumes, there's no sets,
and there's no point. Do you believe that she's actually
Norman Desmond? It was horrible. Okay, sorry, I had to
(02:10):
say that to somebody, and no one wants to hear
me ran about theater, and you're my captive audience, so
you get to hear about it. Now to the news
of the actual week. I want to go back and
focus on what we talked about last week and earlier
this week because it's important and it's still something that
people are talking about it and the news broke. So
first of all, the Canadian election, the Liberal Party, as expected,
(02:31):
made the big comeback, biggest comeback in Canadian politics, and
when their fourth consecutive government, they beat the Conservative Party
by forty three point seven percent of the vote to
forty one point seven percent of the vote, winning by
two points. They got one hundred and sixty nine seats
they call them writings in Canada instead of seats, but
one hundred and sixty nine writings able to form a
(02:51):
minority government, probably with the support of either the Progressive
New Democratic Party or the French Canadian Party of the
Block Quebecs. So we'll see what goes on, how they
end up government. But they have minority government. The casual
viewer in America who doesn't really spend a lot of
time listening to a Canadian news or Canadian politics, which
is most of us, no shame, but it is what
it is. They sat there and they heard about it,
(03:14):
and on social media they were like, well, I guess
Pierre Pola there, the leader of the Conservative Party who
ended up pilightly losing his own seat in the parliament,
his own writing that actually flipped to the Liberal Party.
He must have done a terrible job. And just like
the party lost and they just they weren't they were
insufficiently conservative. I want to actually go a little deeper
(03:34):
for the American audience who may not know what actually happened,
and really give you a good understanding. First of all,
the Canadian Conservative Party had their best performances nineteen eighty eight.
They grew their coalition based upon the data of these
writings of these seats by fifteen to twenty points among minorities, immigrants,
(03:56):
young people, and blue collar voters in the area outside
of Michigan, that part of Canada which is very heavy manufacturing, free,
very blue collar. In the ethnic suburbs outside Toronto and Vancouver.
There was like a fifteen to twenty point swing in
some of these districts some of these writings. Overall, Conservatives
gained seven point six percent more of the popular vote
(04:17):
than they got last time. So what happened. Well, first
of all, baby boomers happened. Baby Boomer's number one issue
in Canada, according to the Exit poles, was stopping Trump.
Young people wanted the economy be better. Old people wanted
to stop Trump. It is like a whole nation of
Rachel Mattow viewers. It is problematic. That's why when you
(04:38):
say someone say at Canada as the fifty first state, no,
please do not keep them where they are. We don't don't,
we don't need that. Also, college educated voters moved to
the left. This is why Pierre Poulaverir's seat flipped because
he's in a very heavily college educated writing. He's in
a very college educated district districts that used to be
(05:01):
solidly conservative. It's the same thing we've seen in America
in the last election with Trump. It's what we're seeing
in Europe, this great realignment of young people, of ethnic minorities,
of blue collar people moving to the right, and older
voters in many cases moving to the left. And that's
what we saw in Canada. And this is the best
(05:23):
election for the Conservatives since nineteen eighty eight. It sets
them in a good place for the next election, certainly
depending on what's going on and who's ever in charge
of our country and their country and what the economy
looks like. But that is what happened. It wasn't a
complete disaster for the Conservatives. It was a big disappointment.
(05:44):
But if the third parties one last thing, the third
there's multiple progressive parties in Canada. There's the Green Party,
the Bau Quebec, the New Democratics, whatever. The New Democratics
lost almost all their support, their numbers plummeted, so it
wasn't so much as the center was holding for the Liberals.
(06:05):
The New Democrats, part of the block Quebecs, part of
the Green Party moved to the Liberals. So the far
right moved to the Liberals, and the centrist voters who
were part of the Liberal Party moved to the conservatives.
They're just happening more far left liberals in Canada than
there were centrist who moved. So that's what happened. Wasn't
(06:25):
a complete disaster with the conservative It was actually a
fairly strong showing. And we'll see what happens in that
country going forward. And on Monday Show, we talked about
Trump's first one hundred days in office. Now, this show
was taped ahead of the Monday Program, which we always do.
We were table at least a few days ahead of time,
or a day ahead of time in this case, and
we taped the episode on Friday. Well, of course on
(06:48):
Sunday what comes out, but a ton of new polling
it pulls up. We didn't mention that when I taped
down on a Friday because we didn't have them yet.
And the headlines from the Washington Post and the New
York Times and a bunch of other publication said Trump
has his worst performance in history. He's the worst performing
president of the modern era, worse than he did the
first term. Republicans are on a precipice for a doomsday disaster.
(07:12):
You've heard these headlines before they were regurgitated. So I
wanted to go over them, and I pulled all the data.
I put on my substack, the National Populist newsletter. It's
free there for everyone who wants to listen. You have
to subscribe. You could just go there and read it.
I pulled all the data and I want to go
over it. So from April, these were the major polls,
and I'll give you the poll number, the name of
(07:33):
the pollster, and the margin at which Trump's at. The
ABC Washington Post Pole had him at negative thirteen. New
York Times had a negative twelve, CNN had negative fourteen,
CBS was negative ten, The Economist was negative nine, Fox
News was negative eleven, Atlas Intel was negative six, Pew
Research was negative nineteen, Quinny Peck was negative twelve. Quantus
(07:56):
Insight was negative three. And so if you average that out,
you have about a negative eleven. That's where he is
on average, negative eleven. But there's two numbers there that
are much different than all the other numbers, Atlas Intel
and Quantus Insight. Alice Intel has meant negative six, Quantus
Insight has meant negative three. They're both taken a little
(08:18):
while earlier in April, but after Liberation Day, after the tariffs.
Alice Intel was the number one most accurate pollster of
twenty twenty four. Quantus was the third most accurates pollster
of twenty twenty four. So why are their numbers significantly
better for Trump than the New York Times, Sienna, New
York Times, Santa Poll, the CNN poll, the Washington Post pol.
(08:39):
Why are they different? And they actually match an NRCC
and that's a National Republican Congressional Committee internal poll which
had the president of negative seven. So they're in the
same They're all playing the same kind of realm. So
why are their polls much different than the mainstream media polls.
I went through the cross tabs to look the major
(08:59):
difference is there's a double digit difference among Republicans. First
of all, Quantus and Atlas their polls have Trump in
the mid eighties among Republicans. All the other pollsters have
him barely crossing seventy. And I am more inclined to
(09:20):
believe an Atlas poll or a Quantus poll showing that
Trump's approval among Republicans probably hasn't dipped all that much.
I mean, Republicans have been loiled for him for a
lot crazier things and a lot more ups and downs
than just the tariff anouncement. Also a double digit difference
among independents. Some of these polls have Trump's independent numbers
(09:43):
in horrific territory. I mean, I'm talking negative thirty five,
negative forty seven, negative thirty six, negative twenty five. Negative
twenty five is actually a good number. In some of
these polls, Alice Intel has met negative eighteen and Quantus
has been negative twelve. That's a much different place than
negative thirty seven. It's not great eight, but it's not
negative thirty seven. These double digit margins matter a lot,
(10:05):
and overall the average among Hispanics for these poles is
much higher. Hispanics saw this big realignment, like the when
we just saw on Canada we had a re alignment
in twenty twenty four, Hispanics moved to the right. Did
they all of a sudden move to the left of
the re alignment get erased? And the big, big, big
question mark that kind of raised on my spicy senses,
my pols or spidy senses, was this His support among
(10:28):
black voters is as high as it was post election. So,
in other words, all of the decline of support among
minorities really primarily comes from Latino. Could that be because
the mass depredations, maybe, But could it also be from
over sampling Latino progressives and Democrats and centrists. Yes, it could,
(10:53):
because that happens quite a bit. It happened throughout the
twenty twenty four election in many polls that said Trump
could not cross thirty five percent among life Tinos, when
he crossed the mid forties. I think that all those
things are feeding these negative pole members, and I am
more inclined to believe an antless intel poll which is
matching the NRCC pole, which is matching the quantities insight
pole over the sexy headlines of the New York Times
(11:16):
and the Washington Post and all these other outlets really
have been pushing forever. That's my personal opinion. Now we'll
see what happens. Tariffs have been destabilized at the market.
Our GDP numbers have just released as we're recording this
podcast on Wednesday, showing a shrinkage in the economy of
point three percent, which is concerning. It's not we're not
(11:38):
in a great place, but I don't believe we're in
a doomsday scenario. I don't think Trump's in a doomsday scenario,
and I think we have a while till the midterm
election of our polls really start to matter. But I
don't think that the prevailing narrative, like it's not in
the Canadian election, the prevailing narrative over Trump is not accurate.
One poster that I did not mention in in the
(12:00):
summary of all these polls is my buddy James Johnson.
He is a polster from the UK. He was one
of the most accurate polsters in twenty twenty four. He
has a much different opinion than the headlines and the
prevailing narrative over Trump, and he'll be with us next
so stay tuned to hear what he has to say.
James Johnson is the founder of j L Partners. He
(12:22):
has a lot of stuff that gets published in the
Daily Mail. He was once the polster for the Prime
Minister of England. He's a good buddy of mine. James,
thanks for being on this podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Thanks for having me. Ron.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
So you have a new poll out from it's in
the Daily Mail. What is your findings on Trump's approval rating?
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Right, so, we do think that Trump's approval rating has
gone down. We've got a forty five percent before we
were actually about fifty percent for Trump. In fact, two
weeks ago we had him at his joint highest approval rating.
So we've generally shown better numbers for Trump than the average.
We do think he's come down a bit. We think
he's in the mid forties. We think, however, he's nowhere
(13:00):
near some of the more dire ratings that some of
the poles as are putting out. So we don't think
he's on thirty eight thirty nine percent. We think he's
in the mid forties. Actually, by Trump standards, that's really
not that bad.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Right, So okay, so first things first I did. I
looked at all the polls that had just recently come out,
and the interesting thing about them, where pollsters like you Atlas,
Intel and Quantus Insights, you, the three you're at three
poles are much more alike with each other than other polls.
(13:32):
What's your what's his unfavorable number? If it's favoral is forty.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Five fifty five? We do it without the donotes, okay,
so oh gotcha?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
All right, so it's ten with no donuts, gotcha. Now.
The thing that I found interesting, and the reason I
think it was interesting, is that in the ABC Washington Post,
the New York Times, CNN, CBS, economists, you name it.
Trump's favorable numbers with all those pollsters among Republicans is
somewhere in the low seventies. The now for you guys,
(14:00):
for your pole, they just came, it's eighty five. And
that ten point margin among Republicans, and also you have
a isentially higher support among independents that makes up a
large chunk of the favorability rating. Do you think that
there's any possibly like one in four Republicans have an
unfavorable opinion of him.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
No, No, okay, And if this is the thing, so,
I think a lot of pollsters are well.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
I think it's a lot of reasons behind this.
Speaker 3 (14:29):
But the fundamental problem with some of these polls is
that they are still getting too many Harris voters in
their samples. Now, that was a problem in twenty twenty four,
where people were getting too many people.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Intending to vote Harris.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
But they've now got too many people who voted Harris
in twenty twenty four in their samples to debt to death.
And that's the reason you're getting these Republicans who actually
are not indicative of Republicans as a whole. They are
Republicans who actually perhaps opted for Harris in twenty four
or indeed didn't vote. So I think we're getting these
Poles who they did not do very well in twenty four,
(15:03):
and now they're putting out these bad approval ratings of Trump.
I have to say, right, I find it baffling. I
find it incredible if you just take the three posters
with the lowest Trump ratings that also had Poles in
twenty twenty four, let me read them out to you. ABC,
Washington Post, Dipsos. They've got thirty nine percent Trump approval.
They had Harris three points ahead in November in an
SRSS forty one percent Trump approval. They had Harris winning
(15:25):
by six points in Wisconsin, five points in Michigan. New
York Times Sienna often talks about as a gold standard
forty two percent Trump approval. They had Harris winning all
the swing states by Arizona. Now, I don't need to
point out to your esteemed listeners that's not what happened.
Trump won the popular vote anyone, all seven sin swing states.
So I find it slightly baffling that these media outlets
(15:47):
are still hiring the exact same polsters with the exact
same methodology that meant that they fell so far wide
of the mark in November.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Well, I mean the New York Times poll did a
little better than the other ones, as I believe they
were in version of error in most of the swing stations.
Is why I still listen to them. I like CNN
for the fact that they show cross tabs. I mean,
that's really all I have to go for them. I'm like, Okay,
at least I can see the I can see the work,
and a lot of other poles they don't show cross
steps or they show limited ones, even like Wuinnipiac, which
(16:15):
those limited ones. But so you were at a piece
with the Spectator where you went in on these polsters
and why that they were wrong? Is it the fact?
And this has been my long standing opinion, especially when
a him to polling senior citizens senior citizen poll in
many polls, like even the New York Times Sanaple which
you just mentioned, in the swing states in Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania, they had Harris not only winning seniors in
(16:37):
those states, but they went winning them by double digits.
I think in Michigan they had her winning by twenty
points senior citizens, senior citizens have moved to the left
as polier. Senior citizens who were I would say silent
generation or greatest generation have died off and baby boomers,
who are more progressive have become senior citizens. I said,
it's like, you know, it's like the archie Bunker was
a senior citizen. He's no longer alive. Meat loaf. The
(16:59):
liberal son alone is a senior citizen now. But among
senior citizens there is a there are there are older
liberals who are you know MSNBC viewers who would break
someone's neck to go answer a poll. They will do
anything to answer a pole. They cannot wait to tell
you how much they hate Trump, And that same kind
(17:21):
of participation is not is not there for conservative senior citizens.
Do you find that as well as that why we're
seeing these numbers that are sometimes very off in that
in that demographic.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Yeah, I think that's a key factor.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Our research during the twenty twenty four election showed that
the group that was most likely to pick up a
landline polling pool were older, white middle class women. Now,
I haven't got anything against older white middle class women.
They're an important group to poll, but they're not so
important that they should flood your your polling answers, and
(17:56):
that group is more likely to vote Democrat than a
Republican way. Is what was behind that and Seltzer's disastrous
Iowa pole. She only used landline polling, she picked up
more of those people. She thought that was the story
of the election. It was actually the.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Story of her polling buyers. So that is a big element.
Speaker 3 (18:12):
The fundamental problem I think to that poll to others
is that they are using traditional methods in an information
ecosystem that isn't traditional anymore. For every voter, I sort
of think of them as having a bubble around their head,
and they've got media on one hand giving them some things.
They've got AI on the other giving them some things.
(18:32):
They've got social media. They've also got their friends and family.
They've also just got their own view of the world,
and polling has to sort of overlap with that bubble.
You can't just go people on landlines and only penetrate
a bit of that. You've got to a potion in
a different way. So one of the things that we
do alongside the traditional methods is in app polling. So
if you're playing a game on your phone or you're
(18:54):
online shopping, you get a notification, do you want to
get a discount or do you want to win fifty
thousand game points? Complete this short survey. It picks up
people who are not who are not answering those traditional things.
It picks up more disengaged people. It also picks up
busy people. Ryan a key part of the Trump coalition
were busy blue collar workers who weren't going to go
(19:14):
and answer a poll. It wasn't because they didn't distrust
the bowling. It was because they were working all day
and didn't have the time.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
So problem when you have like the economists, which asks
the economists you go poles which literally ask one hundred
and eighty seven questions, so like you have to spend
an hour of your day. Now they pay people or
do those poles, which I think also feeds into the inaccuracy.
But you have to do one hundred and eighty sum questions.
So in your piece that you know that Trump's approvings
(19:42):
have gone down, how much of it is tariffs? And
what is the conversation tariffs are having a month?
Speaker 3 (19:48):
So we asked people in that same poll, what is
the reason that you feel more negative towards Trump? And
we asked that of people, of everyone, but we've narrowed
it down in the analysis to Trump voters, now too
small a samples to say too much about. But the
general gist of those answers was that it was about tariffs.
And we actually did a word cloud and the most
mentioned word in the word cloud was the word tariffs. However,
(20:11):
I think it's more complicated than just people think tariffs
are bad. I don't think they do. When Trump first
announced his Liberation Day tariffs, we actually had Trump's approval
at fifty four percent the week after. They respected when
we dug into the numbers. They respected a sense of direction,
a sense of strength, a sense of this is what
he said he'd do. What we've actually seen happened since
(20:33):
is that since Trump softened and changed some of his
positions on tariffs, voters have lost a bit of that
benefit of the doubt. They're less saying he's strong, he's
getting things done, he's taking a strong stance on this.
They're more saying, well, I still trust Trump, I still
like him, but I'm not quite sure what the strategy is,
what's the plan here? And that's taken away a bit
of that respect, and it's made people worry a little
(20:55):
bit more about the impact on their four oh one
k and their wallets.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
So, look, I don't think this is a.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
That's exactly what I've been saying to everyone in Washington
is that I don't I who work in the media
a lot, and I know every I know a lot
of members of Congress and the Trump administration, and I
work for the Vice president. I don't know what what
the plan is. I don't know. I don't understand what
the end goal is with the tariffs, and it's very
(21:21):
very frustrating. I'm looking at your word bubble right now.
Tariffs is like not only the biggest word, it takes
upody I think at least probably forty percent of all
the space available. And then in the lower words, the
words that are are not as big as tariffs are
tariff tariffs spelled a different way with two r's instead
of the two f's, mosque elon doje. And then minor
(21:44):
lower is like deportations, which is very very very small,
but it's mostly China's. There is a small bubble. Ukraine
is a very small bubble, but it is almost entirely tariffs.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
Yeah, and I think it's particularly this this this watering
down the people have wondered. Look from a political CON's
point of view, that's either a that's either an issue
of well, you know, perhaps the U turn, perhaps he
shouldn't have changed position, or perhaps you shouldn't have brought
it in the first place if it was always inevitably
that it was going to change position. It reminds me
of a British example, Ryan of Liz Truss. She was
(22:17):
Prime Minister in the UK for a very short period.
She ended up resigning. She went from pretty good approval
ratings to catechismically bad ones. And the reason is not
so much because of the economic policy that she took,
but the fact she reversed it massively.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
She lost that hunch. Now.
Speaker 3 (22:32):
I don't think we're seeing the same thing happen here.
I don't think we are seeing an abandonment of Trump.
I think this is people just going a bit like, okay,
I'm still with him, but what's the plan they want
that reassurance. I don't think it's an abandonment on trust levels.
But it's similar in that it's the reversal that's done
the damage rather than the policy itself, but just very quickly.
Ry So I just want to pick up on something
you said there. What this isn't It is not a
(22:52):
backlash against deportations. It is not a backlash against the
case of Garcia in Al Salvador. It is not really
even a bat against Elon Musk or Doche. It's not
a backlash against Trump's style. It's not a backlash on
Ukraine and Zelenski. It's a very particular thing that has
just made them doubt whether Trump's cat a strategy. On
the bulk of the Trump policy platform, his voters are
(23:14):
still really, really behind him.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Now, I want to bring up something else that you
put it in your poll. I'm looking at the cross
tims you've made about approval disapproval with the neutral there,
with the I don't know Trump's numbers, My Hispanics have
fallen substantially, and this has been in a lot of
different poles. That actually makes me question whether they're or
correct or not. Did the entire realignment that affected how
you know, this election? Last election went and his bag
(23:38):
supporting Trump has fallen apart because of deportations.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
No, I don't think it has.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
I think we'd be careful with those small, small cross
tab numbers. I think all polsters at this stage, remember,
are not trying to predict an election, so they therefore
are a little bit like you know that that that
they're spending a bit less money, frankly, And I think
that's also why we get a lot of these more
garbage poles coming out, because people are just actually investing
a lot less in it, because their reputation is riding
(24:05):
on it less. Right, So I'd always be I'd always
be cautious even with my own poll about cross tabs
at this cross breaks at that level at the stage
when I've carried on doing one to one voter interviews
with voters since since the election, and I was actually
doing Hispanic voter interviews in Nevada a couple of weeks ago,
and the general gist that I get is that actually,
(24:28):
although they do not want to go out and show
and talk to their friends and families saying they're in
support of deportations, actually their support for them has basically
remained pretty stable since the election. Yes, they're more nervous
about talking about it and telling the neighbors that they
support President Trump, but actually on the bulk of the
fairness issue, I think they're pretty much in line. The
(24:50):
message I got again and again and again in an
election I still get now is I did it the
right way. These people did it the wrong way. So
I don't think that's gone. Look, I don't think these Hispanics,
especially Hispanic men, who came over to Trump, I don't
think they became lifelong Republicans overnight. But I do think
they became swing voters for the first time in that election.
That doesn't mean the Republicans have goten for good. It
(25:10):
means they're up for grabs, But it also means they
haven't lost them either.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Got it Okay, Well that's I mean, that's good to
know the other part of the cross tabs, and I
know not to get to obsess them. But this is
not laying your cressos. This is in everybody's young people.
Young people. There was a research done by David Shore
that showed that young men between these of eighteen to
twenty one were the most Republican demographic. The Yale poll
came out right afterwards, showing that young men were plan
(25:33):
voting for Republicans in the twenty twenty six mid terms
at the greatest portion of any group. Your poll has
Trump falling. I think twenty points among young men. Other
polls actually a bit for much much lower, not young men,
young people as a whole. What is your opinion of
the youth vote and how that's changed, Because they would
seemingly be the least affected by tariffs in the stock
(25:55):
market because they don't have, you know, a lot of stocks,
and they're not, you know, their four to one k
plans are rather small to fit a boom orrogen X.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
It's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
I think that is right, But they are also a
group young men are also a group that are more
like he's been plugged into financial news, and I think
they're more what our research are shown, they're more likely
to be tracking things like cryptocurrency, things like stocks on
their phone than actually any group, even those who actually
have more stocks.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
So it's interesting.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
They do seem to be a bit more plugged into
that sort of information system that means that they see
those things.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
So I think there's a bit of that.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
Look again, I would just come back to the point
that I don't think there's any I don't think they're
lost for good by any stretch. I think we have
got a really interesting generational shift here, and I do
think young men both in America and in other countries
are having a real backlash to some of the stuff
that's have been out there about gender rights. I spoke
to a eighteen year old black man in Nevada as
(26:52):
a swing voter interview. He was a first time Trump voter.
I mean, he was a first time voter, but he
is voting trumpet for the first time of anyone in
his family and for him.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
I asked him why, and he just came.
Speaker 3 (27:03):
Back to the Democrats are pushing nonsense on gender and
they want you know, they're pushing all this stuff on trends,
and I'm more interested in the economy now. His view
was that Trump had to improve the economy for him
to carry on voting Republican. So he's not with Trump
for good, but he's giving Trump a chance, and he's
giving the Republican Party a chance. I do think though,
that if the Republicans need to be concerned about one thing,
(27:26):
it's how they get out these younger men, younger non
white voters who gave Trump a vote for the first time.
How do they get them out in twenty twenty six
Because these are not people who have traditionally voted a
lot in these elections, and that's the big challenge I think.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
Yeah, I mean that's the problem where you have with
the with Boomer's movies, a lt of people who are
always voting, voting consistently, you'll have That's why you're seeing
the special elections move ten twenty points and some seats
that they're really not competitive in it, and it might
be a very big problem for the midterms. I agree
with that sentiment. I don't really know the answer the
top of my head, but I think that that is
(28:00):
really important part. What is the most if you were
to sit there and talk to somebody about from like
the White House, about an administration about the whole tariffs,
would it be to double down on a plan or
to kind of walk back and announce a bunch of
free trade agreements and and just you know, call it
a day. What would be what would be the best
impactful for a polls? You know, because you have a
(28:22):
few months until they start really mattering ahead of the midterms,
But what would your opinion be?
Speaker 3 (28:28):
Yeah, Look, my first I'm going to I promise I'm
going to answer your question, Ryan, But my first, my
instinctive answer to that is ignore us, ignore the pollsters.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Do what you think is right for the country.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
Like you know, President Trump, if if he's going to
face what usually happens at the mid terms, which is
that the opposition wins, then he should use this two
years to do whatever the hell he wants to improve
the country, so that that would be That's my fundamental answer.
But if you're looking at how to message it best,
I think you know, and I think that it's probably
now showing that this is a plan that is paid
(29:00):
off and that it's resulting in this free trade deal,
this trade deal, tying it back to it. If they
can't do that, then I think it's probably best to
get off the issue and move on to something else.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
James Andson. Where can people go to read your stuff,
read your polls, all your information?
Speaker 3 (29:16):
So they go on Twitter x is the best place,
James Johnson two five two, And if you also look
on jail partners dot com that's where we upload all
of our latest polling and you can also get in
touch there if you're interested in any further information.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Cheers James Andson, Happy birthday. Thank you so much. You
do great jobs in polling and people should check it
out now.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Thanks so much.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
Ron you're listening to It's The Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski.
We'll be right back after this message. And now for
the Ask Me anything part of this show. Once again,
please send me a questions about literally anything that I
can answer. I'll do the research for you. Can ema
me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's plural numbers,
(29:58):
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast, come my email. This question
this week was actually so simple. Do you have a
book recommendation for me? And I do so. This is
not a popular World War two book. It's not like huge,
but it's one of my favorites called Diary of a
Man in Despair by Friedrich Reich R. E. C. K.
It is a book about a German aristocrat watching the
(30:19):
rise of Nazis and losing his country. It is written
from a conservative perspective. It's beautiful, it's heartbreaking, it's his
own it's it's his diary, so it's it's it's very powerful,
beautiful book. Love it, love it, love it. Cannot recommend
it enough to people once again. Diary of a Man
in Despair by Frederick Reich quick and easy, and it's
(30:39):
also not super long. I'm the middle of reading a
book right now, which is like seven hundred pages, and
sometimes it's this is this book's a slog. It's a
good book, but it's a slog. So maybe i'll give
you a review when I'm finally.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Done with it.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
Anyway, thank you all for listening this week. I really
appreciate all of you. Please like and subscribe at the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, and
please check us out next week. Thank you all.
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